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New CFTC Prediction Market Proposal Would Ban War And Terrorism Bets While Allowing Sports Markets

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has unveiled a proposed framework for prediction markets that would prohibit contracts tied to violent or harmful events, including terrorism, war, and political assassinations, while largely preserving sports-based markets, according to Bloomberg.

Under the proposal, "gaming" would be interpreted more narrowly, focusing on activities driven primarily by chance. As a result, most existing sports event contracts would remain permissible.

According to CFTC Chairman Michael Selig, the agency's goal is to "protect the integrity of our regulated markets without standing in the way of responsible innovation."

The proposal is intended to modernize and clarify how event contracts are evaluated, replacing broad restrictions with a more targeted approach. Dorothy DeWitt, a former CFTC market oversight official, said the framework "provides clarity as to what types of contracts are unlikely to be readily susceptible to manipulation."

Bloomberg writes that the regulator also signaled concern about contracts whose outcomes can be influenced by a single individual or specific in-game actions, suggesting those markets may face heightened scrutiny.

The initiative follows the rapid expansion of prediction markets after legal victories opened the door to election and sports-related contracts. As trading activity and investor interest continue to grow, the industry has sought clearer guidance on which markets are acceptable under federal oversight.

Supporters view the proposal as a step toward a more predictable regulatory environment that could encourage further investment and participation. Critics argue it risks legitimizing gambling-like activity within financial markets and could divert the agency from its traditional mission.

The proposal marks another milestone in the ongoing debate over how prediction markets should be regulated and where the line between investing and wagering should be drawn.

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/11/2026 - 16:40

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Even 'Trust The Election' Pundits Are Suspicious

Authored by J.B. Shurk via American Thinker,

California’s rigged elections are difficult to defend...

California Democrats have rigged another election, and outsider Spencer Pratt has been bumped from the Los Angeles mayoral race.  On Election Day, Pratt’s lead over third-place Nithya Raman was so large that she publicly cried over her loss.  After a week of mail-in-ballot shenanigans, Raman has surged to secure a coveted spot on the November ballot — a statistical improbability in any jurisdiction familiar with arithmetic and basic ethics.

This “come from behind victory” has made it difficult for the usual election-fraud-deniers to pretend that California’s elections are free, fair, legal, or remotely based in reality.  I noticed that National Review writer Dan McLaughlin — who spent a lot of time after 2020’s stolen election defending Joe Biden’s “victory” — felt compelled to make this small concession: “I’m suspicious of the voting in LA.  For now, in the absence of evidence, that’s just vague suspicion unsupported by proof, but the vote-counting process reeks.”

I wrote a number of essays describing the historic irregularities of the 2020 election after Joe Biden supposedly “won” more than fifteen million extra votes than Barack Obama had secured in his re-election victory.  In the 2020 election, President Trump won almost every traditional bellwether county across the country by double-digits.  He expanded his voter support in almost every demographic and did better with black voters than any Republican since Eisenhower.  He exceeded expectations in swing states.  Economic variables and historic precedent strongly forecast a Trump victory.  It was entirely reasonable to look at the statistical improbabilities of the 2020 election outcome (another race that was “decided” more than four days after Election “Day”) and conclude that the numbers did not make sense.  It was entirely appropriate for Americans to gather outside the Capitol on January 6, 2021, and demand that Congress refrain from certifying an election irreparably tainted by mail-in-ballot fraud.  Nevertheless, McLaughlin took time to mock me (and many others) and suggest that I had never heard of “split-ticket” voting.  McLaughlin-type pundits have a difficult time understanding anybody who doesn’t blithely repeat back talking points mass-distributed by the corporate “news” machine.

It strikes me as ridiculous that McLaughlin finds it necessary to couch his “suspicions” about California’s elections behind verbal acknowledgments that, absent “evidence” and “proof” of fraud, no clear conclusions can be drawn.  If you arrive home to find your front door smashed open, your house ransacked, and all your valuables missing, it is not a “vague suspicion” to conclude that your home has been burgled.  I get the sense that McLaughlin would tell police, “In the absence of evidence, any conclusion that I’m the victim of burglary is just vague suspicion unsupported by proof.”  I think this is why common-sense Americans have no interest in listening to pundits these days; doing so requires a level of pretending that makes most people feel dirty.

I don’t know Dan.  Maybe he’s a nice guy.  Maybe he believes what he writes.  But he seems like somebody who would defend a future Democrat president who rounds all of us up into “MAGA Camps,” so long as CNN quoted Eric Holder as saying that the whole thing was legal and right.  At some point, a person has to put his “thinking cap” on and start asking questions.  Government bureaucrats and politicians are not truth-tellers; they’re propagandists.  If you don’t have the sand to question authority, you’re just a parrot begging for a cracker.  And if California’s most recent rigged election is the first time you’ve had “vague suspicions” about the legitimacy of America’s elections, then your punditry has the same whiff of freshness as a carriage horse’s bun bag.

Across the board, Americans do not trust the election process. 

 Every presidential election since the 2000 contest between Bush and Gore (which took thirty-five days to settle) has been sullied by allegations of fraud, disenfranchisement, illegal voting, ballot spoilage, electoral violations, and all manner of ethical misconduct.  Members of the New Black Panther Party intimidated voters in Philadelphia in order to secure a Pennsylvania election victory for Barack Obama in 2008.  Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama deceived Democrat voters by perpetuating the lie that Russia “stole” the election for Donald Trump in 2016.  While the corporate news media and Silicon Valley’s social media tsars censored reporting on Hunter Biden’s “laptop from Hell” in the lead-up to the 2020 election, Democrat-controlled cities reported more mail-in-ballots for Sleepy Joe than lawful registered voters.  Since Trump’s 2024 landslide victory over Kamala Harris, Democrats have claimed that Elon Musk stole all the swing states for the president.

Nobody believes that our elections are on the up-and-up.  

The fifty states do not uniformly require official photo ID.  Election statutes are not uniformly enforced.  Judges routinely step in to alter the rules for some areas but not others.  Election “Day” has become Election Months because most states permit early voting that lasts for weeks, as well as the late tabulation of mail-in-ballots that arrive well after the election.

In many Democrat-controlled jurisdictions, multiple ballots arrive at every home, apartment, post office box, chicken coop, doghouse, street corner, vacant field, Walmart, convenience store, parking lot, and homeless encampment.  American citizens don’t control election outcomes through their votes.  Campaign operatives control election outcomes through ballot “harvesting” — whereby blank ballots are mailed out, filled out, and collected without ever involving the “voters” whose “votes” are cast in their names.

Once the vote counts are officially posted, most jurisdictions are incapable of verifying the legality of each vote cast or replicating the results with matched ballots and voter records.  The local and state election commissions instead defer to the “Trust us, bro” standard of government accountability.

The whole electoral process is corrupt. 

Everybody knows it.  Democrats and Republicans have different reasons for distrusting the outcomes.  But the point remains: Nobody trusts the outcomes.  Pundits such as Dan McLaughlin exist to reassure the public that everything is hunky-dory.  Don’t trust your eyes or the organ between your ears, they say.  

Trust the process and the Establishment politicians who benefit from that process.

Why not?  

These are the same professional “authorities,” after all, who “rationally” handled the arrival of the mostly-harmless COVID virus by closing schools, churches, and businesses; locking us up in our homes; creating arbitrary mask rules; forcing us to follow ludicrous “safety” protocols; and threatening to take our children away if we refused to submit to experimental injections redefined as “vaccines.”  If you didn’t learn to “trust the experts” during COVID, I don’t know what to tell you.  After we “flattened the curve in fifteen days,” we also proved that owning property causes “climate change” and that Dementia Joe Biden was the most popular president in American history!  It was a banner few years!

Notwithstanding the proven track record of the Establishment Class, California’s recent “election” is forcing more people than ever to question whether this whole voting monstrosity in America is legitimate.  When even “I will defend the integrity of the 2020 election to my dying breath” Dan McLaughlin admits that the radically shifting results for the Los Angeles mayoral race have made him “suspicious” of the voting process in California, the tide might be turning.  Who knows.  Maybe Dan will start to wonder whether it really makes sense that Joe Biden — a political candidate who struggled to receive more than single-digit support during prior attempts to reach the White House — won eighty-two million votes in 2020, eclipsing voter support for both President Obama and President Trump.

Common sense isn’t for everybody.  Some people prefer to trust corrupt election officials.  As Dan McLaughlin says, “The machine wins.”  Well, the machine does tend to win when pundits refuse to recognize, confront, and condemn fraud.

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/11/2026 - 16:20

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