Aggregator

Goldman's World Cup Winner Prediction Is ...

The 2026 Football World Cup kicks off June 11, with Mexico vs. South Africa opening the tournament at Mexico City Stadium.

The tournament will feature 48 teams across 104 matches at stadiums in the U.S., Canada, and Mexico from next Thursday through July 19.

Jan Hatzius, chief economist and head of global investment research at Goldman Sachs, published a cheat sheet for clients that used a forecasting model built around Elo ratings - the ranking system originally developed for chess - to handicap the tournament. His top pick diverges from the latest Polymarket odds, with Hatzius placing Spain at the top of the list as the most likely World Cup winner.

"The model says that Spain has a 26% probability of winning the trophy, followed by France at 19%, Argentina at 14%, Brazil at 8%, and England at 5%," Hatzius said.

He noted, "Spain is predicted to win because it has the highest Elo ranking, supported by scoring talent and good momentum into the competition. Argentina is penalised by the "winner's slump", i.e. the statistical underperformance of reigning champions in the following World Cup; France suffers from likely facing top-ranked Spain in the semifinals; and England underperforms its Elo rating given historical tournament disappointment, geographical headwinds (likely facing Mexico in high-altitude Mexico City), and a slightly unlucky draw." 

Hatzius built a regression model to estimate how many goals each team is likely to score against another, using nearly 20,000 international matches since 1978. The model shows a steep decline in goal scoring, with much of it occurring after World War II.

Elo measures national team strength based on results and opponent quality, updating as teams win, lose, or draw. By this metric, Hatzius and his team place Spain No. 1, ahead of Argentina and France, which differs slightly from FIFA's official men's rankings.

Most Likely Predicted Group Stage Results

Road To Winner

Unlike our previous notes on Goldman's World Cup probabilities in 2022, 2018, and 2014, the rise of Polymarket has changed the betting game, bringing prediction markets directly into the sports-betting mainstream.

The latest Polymarket odds show France at 17%, Spain at 16%, and England at 11%...

...putting market pricing at odds with Goldman's model, which ranks Spain as the winner.

Professional subscribers can read the full World Cup note here at our new Marketdesk.ai portal. 

Tyler Durden Sat, 06/06/2026 - 09:55

"Tiger is doing the best he can with all of the pressure on him with healing and also the legal issues he faces in coming months. This has created a great deal of stress, a source said.

"Tiger is doing the best he can with all of the pressure on him with healing and also the legal issues he faces in coming months. This has created a great deal of stress," a source said.

Water began refilling the recently renovated Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool on June 4, President Donald Trump announced from the Oval Office. Trump also displayed video during an unrelated event showing water bubbling into the freshly painted basin at the foot of the Lincoln Memorial as the refilling process got underway. The project follows recent resurfacing...

A controversial Israel-and-US-hating NYC college professor defended the murderous Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps as she clamored to bring down the US empire "by any means necessary."

During a robotics demonstration in China, a 70-pound droid wearing a clown wig executed a few martial arts moves and kicked a child in the belly, sending him to the ground and sparking debate on how safe humans really are from robots extraordinary strength.

Stock up smarter – wholesale prices, gas savings, and coupons that Costco won't touch

Is it Cristiano Roboto?

Pope Leo will make history with the first papal speech to Spanish Parliament.

Israeli Ambassador To France Accused Of 'Foreign Interference' After Election Remarks

Via Middle East Eye

The Israeli ambassador to France has been accused of "foreign interference" after saying he would prefer "anyone rather than Jean-Luc Melenchon" to win the 2027 presidential election.

Speaking in a television interview on Thursday, Ambassador Joshua Zarka said he would rather see any candidate elected to the Elysee Palace than Melenchon, the leader of the left-wing party La France Insoumise (LFI), a strong supporter of Palestinian rights.

Israel's Ambassador to France Joshua Zarka, via AFP

Zarka also added that he met last month with Marine Le Pen, the leader of the French far-right National Rally. His remarks triggered an immediate backlash from across the French political spectrum.

Manuel Bompard, LFI's national coordinator, described the comments as "blatant foreign interference".

"In a normal democracy, the French authorities should react and condemn this type of statement," he said.

Arnaud Le Gall, an LFI MP responsible for the party's international relations, said Zarka had breached the neutrality expected of diplomats.

"He's a diplomat stationed in France. He's supposed to maintain neutrality in the country where he's posted. So tell him to keep his mouth shut," Le Gall said.

The criticism was echoed by Olivier Faure, leader of the Socialist Party, who called the ambassador's comments "unacceptable interference". 

"The French people will decide their own future," Faure said. "No one is surprised to see an envoy of [Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin] Netanyahu openly admitting his ties to the French far right."

Zarka's remarks also drew criticism from the right. Nathalie Loiseau, a member of the European Parliament from the Horizons party, described Zarka's comments as "clear interference in our domestic political life" and said they were "totally inappropriate" for a foreign ambassador.

🇮🇱🇫🇷 Joshua Zarka dénonce une crise diplomatique sans précédent entre la France et Israëlhttps://t.co/rZxuIE9es0

— i24NEWS Français (@i24NEWS_FR) June 5, 2026

During the interview, Zarka acknowledged that Israeli officials had previously avoided formal contact with leaders of Le Pen's party, but argued that the movement had changed.

"The National Front had a clear antisemitic tendency," he said, referring to the party's former name. "The National Rally has changed."

Tyler Durden Sat, 06/06/2026 - 09:20

Joe's next mission officially has a start date.

Zohran Mamdani and his political allies have repeatedly signaled that it’s open season on New York’s Jewish population, the largest in America.

The M in MVP is reserved for only one Mom.

The former vice president says he never felt "a greater sense of resolve" than he did on Jan. 6.

State Sen. Luis Sepúlveda and Assemblywoman Amy Paulin want to rewrite parental laws to be gender neutral.

The Tigers seem to show more teeth now that they got Gleyber Torres back.

Cryer and McCarthy played romantic rivals in the iconic 1986 teen rom-com.

Cryer and McCarthy played romantic rivals in the iconic 1986 teen rom-com.

See The Post's UFC Fight Night predictions for Vegas 118 on Saturday night.

'Take The Badge Off': Former Ferrari Boss Slams New $635k EV That Company Thinks Will Attract 'Younger Buyers'

One week after Ferrari unveiled its first-ever all-electric car, called the Luce, the design continues to divide analysts. Some referred to the new model as a "mix between a Honda Accord EV and a Tesla," while others said that Tesla's Model S Plaid was far superior. The latest report from Goldman analysts provided new details about their most recent visit to Ferrari's headquarters in Maranello.

Last Friday, Ferrari hosted an investor day, which analyst Christian Frenes attended. He spoke with top Ferrari executives just days after the Luce reveal event in Rome earlier in the week.

Frenes said management framed the Ferrari Luce as an "additive range model designed to expand the customer base."

He continued:

Management reaffirmed the Luce as a strategic entry point to engage new demographics and regions, particularly in markets with higher BEV penetration such as Asia and the Nordics while also targeting a new and younger customer group. The exterior design intentionally distinguishes the EV from existing ICE and PHEV models. Management also reaffirmed it remains aligned with its "technological neutrality" approach continuing to sell V12s and V8s to those interested.

Beyond design, Ferrari's battery-powered, four-door, five-seat Luce has another problem: its price tag - a staggering 550,000 euros, or about $638,660. If Ferrari expects that to open the brand to a younger, broader customer base, management certainly has a different view of the world - one that isn't grounded in reality.

For starters, Tesla's Model S Plaid costs only a fraction as much and, on key performance metrics, appears to outperform the Luce. The Model S also comes with Full Self-Driving, a feature we are fairly certain Ferrari's first EV lacks.

By the end of last week, Ferrari CEO Benedetto Vigna appeared to be on damage-control duty after shares dropped in response to negative investor reaction to the Luce's design and performance specifications.

crazy.. pic.twitter.com/DTNVAYNPZX

— Tesla Owners Silicon Valley (@teslaownersSV) May 27, 2026

Let's not forget that Ferrari hybrids are depreciating faster than their petrol-powered counterparts. This is a sign that car collectors are shunning anything electric (read the report). 

Shares have yet to recover to pre-Luce reveal levels.

Beyond the terrible design and high price, one could debadge the Luce, and it would be hard to decipher the car from a Kia or Toyota or even a Nissan ... 

Ferrari Luce, explained pic.twitter.com/F0vRf03cwj

— Trung Phan (@TrungTPhan) May 26, 2026

That problem itself has infuriated Luca Cordero di Montezemolo, the former Ferrari president, who told local media that the Luce "risks destroying a legend, and I'm deeply sorry. I hope they at least remove the Prancing Horse from that car."

American automotive YouTuber Doug DeMuro said Luce has the specs of a "nice Polestar" .. .

Professional subscribers can read the full Ferrari note at our new Marketdesk.ai portal.

Tyler Durden Sat, 06/06/2026 - 08:45