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Afi wrestled Ric Flair to a stalemate in a one-hour time limit match for the NWA World Heavyweight Championship, to much fanfare.

Houston, We Have Shareholders

Submitted by QTR's Fringe Finance

SpaceX’s highly anticipated Starship test flight never made it off the pad Thursday evening. Instead, the launch was scrubbed after what appeared to be an automatic abort during engine startup, marking the first major operational disappointment since the company became publicly traded just weeks ago.

As of this writing, the company has not released a detailed explanation for what happened. SpaceX has only said there will be no launch today, that engineers will review the issue, determine the cause, and announce the next launch opportunity after completing their analysis. Until then, everything circulating online should be treated as speculation, not fact.

That hasn’t stopped launch watchers from dissecting the video frame by frame.

Several engineers and enthusiasts posting on X believe the booster triggered the abort after multiple Raptor engines failed to ignite properly. One widely shared theory suggests four engines in the center ring never achieved a successful startup sequence, while others have speculated that the new Raptor V3 engines may have a more demanding ignition process than previous versions. Those observations may ultimately prove correct, or they may prove completely wrong. At this point, nobody outside SpaceX knows.

But here’s what I know. What makes this different from every previous Starship launch is that SpaceX is no longer just a private engineering experiment. This is the company’s first Starship campaign as a publicly traded company, and that changes some things.

Before the IPO, a scrubbed launch was simply another engineering milestone…on the way to the company’s valuation doing this:

Investors weren’t watching every second because there were no public shareholders marking billions of dollars in value to market every afternoon. Now there are. Every countdown, every static fire, every launch, every anomaly and every explosion is effectively a public earnings report.

That’s simply the reality of being a public company.

I’ve argued repeatedly over the last several weeks that SpaceX’s valuation made very little sense. At one point investors briefly valued the company at well over $2 trillion before the shares gave back a substantial portion of those gains. The stock has now fallen below its $135 IPO price after peaking above $225 shortly after listing, leaving it down roughly one-third from its highs while still carrying an enormous valuation. It’s down another -3.8% after hours as of the time of this writing.

And look…my argument hasn’t been that SpaceX isn’t an extraordinary company, despite what some people argue when I’m being skeptical about valuation. It clearly is. My argument has been that no company deserves a valuation that assumes near perfection forever.

In fact, I’ve said more than once that SpaceX has the potential to become the pin that finally pops this market’s speculative bubble — and maybe even more than that. History is full of beloved companies that were wonderful businesses but terrible investments simply because investors paid absurd prices for them. The bond market seems to potentially agree with this sentiment.

Operational execution has always been the foundation of SpaceX’s story, but now it’s also the foundation of the stock. To be clear, one launch scrub means almost nothing by itself. Launch scrubs happen across the industry and are often the result of systems doing exactly what they’re supposed to do by preventing a launch under questionable conditions.

But now-public investors should not forget that Starship's development has been marked by a number of high-profile setbacks. The first integrated flight test in April 2023 lost control after failing to achieve stage separation and was intentionally destroyed by SpaceX's flight termination system. The second integrated test in November 2023 successfully achieved hot-stage separation for the first time, but both the Super Heavy booster and Starship upper stage were ultimately lost before completing their planned objectives.

Flight 7 in January 2025 ended with the loss of the Starship upper stage during ascent, and Flight 8 in March 2025 also resulted in the loss of the upper stage following another propulsion-system failure. More recently, Flight 12 in May 2026 suffered a significant setback when the Super Heavy booster failed during its return after multiple Raptor engines did not successfully relight. The Starship upper stage, however, continued its mission, deployed its test payloads, survived reentry and completed a controlled splashdown in the Indian Ocean.

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Every one of these flights produced valuable engineering data and moved the program forward, but they also served as reminders that developing the world's largest and most powerful launch system remains one of the most technically demanding challenges in aerospace. The difference now is that every one of those outcomes has immediate consequences for shareholders.

For years, SpaceX always had another exciting story to tell. Another funding round. Another valuation increase. Another government contract. Another Starlink milestone. Another private market markup.

Now the company has entered a different phase. It’s put up or shut up time. Public investors will increasingly want to see successful launches, expanding cash flow, continued Starlink execution and tangible evidence that the next phase of growth is materializing.

With the stock now trading below its offering price after a sharp post-IPO reversal, there’s still plenty of optimism embedded in the valuation despite the recent decline. The market may start to demand (at least some) demand execution instead of simply rewarding potential.

None of this means today’s scrub is the beginning of a larger problem. It may wind up being nothing more than a minor startup issue that engineers resolve in a matter of days.

But that’s precisely why it’s worth watching. From this point forward, every Starship launch is no longer just a rocket launch. It’s also a referendum on one of the largest and most expensive public companies in the world.

That dynamic didn’t exist a month ago. Now it does.

--

QTR’s Disclaimer: Please read my full legal disclaimer on my About page here. This post represents my opinions only. In addition, please understand I am an idiot and often get things wrong and lose money. I may own or transact in any names mentioned in this piece at any time without warning. Contributor posts and aggregated posts have been hand selected by me, have not been fact checked and are the opinions of their authors. They are either submitted to QTR by their author, reprinted under a Creative Commons license with my best effort to uphold what the license asks, or with the permission of the author.

This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any stocks or securities, just my opinions. I often lose money on positions I trade/invest in. I may add any name mentioned in this article and sell any name mentioned in this piece at any time, without further warning. None of this is a solicitation to buy or sell securities. I may or may not own names I write about and are watching. Sometimes I’m bullish without owning things, sometimes I’m bearish and do own things. Just assume my positions could be exactly the opposite of what you think they are just in case. If I’m long I could quickly be short and vice versa. I won’t update my positions.

As of May 20, 2026 I personally no longer actively trade (read my story here). My investing/saving is done by recurring contributions mostly to sector ETFs and a few select equities, trusted third parties who oversee my accounts, and advisors. Such advisors or funds, through individual equities, options, index funds, mutual funds, ETFs, or other securities, may have positions in, exposure to, or holdings of names mentioned herein that I know nothing about. Basically, via index funds, ETFs and individual equities it is possible I could own, have exposure to, or not own anything at any point. As of the same date, May 20, 2026, in an attempt to lead a healthier lifestyle, I’ve also excluded myself from fantasy sports, sports betting, online and in-person casinos and prediction markets.

And all positions can change immediately as soon as I publish this, with or without notice and at any point I can be long, short or neutral on any position. You are on your own. Do not make decisions based on my blog. I exist on the fringe. If you see numbers and calculations of any sort, assume they are wrong and double check them. I failed Algebra in 8th grade and topped off my high school math accolades by getting a D- in remedial Calculus my senior year, before becoming an English major in college so I could bullshit my way through things easier.

The publisher does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided in this page. These are not the opinions of any of my employers, partners, or associates. I did my best to be honest about my disclosures but can’t guarantee I am right; I write these posts after a couple beers sometimes. I edit after my posts are published because I’m impatient and lazy, so if you see a typo, check back in a half hour. Also, I just straight up get shit wrong a lot. I mention it twice because it’s that important.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/17/2026 - 09:25

US Industrial Production Disappoints (Again) In June

US Industrial Production rose just 0.1% MoM in June (less than the 0.2% MoM rise expected), after also disappointing in May. That slowed the annual growth in production from 1.6% YoY to +1.1% YoY...

The recent blip higher in Capacity Utilization faded last month (76.1% vs 76.2% exp) with the down-trend seemingly still in tact...

If 'soft' survey data is in any way predictive of reality, then we should be seeing a sizable trend higher in industrial production...

...or maybe it's just another useless sentiment signal.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/17/2026 - 09:21

Gilbert told her fans the reason she's not returning to the Hallmark Channel series.

Gilbert told her fans the reason she's not returning to the Hallmark Channel series.

Howie Gelfand, who partly inspired Jonah Hill’s character in the Martin Scorsese film "The Wolf of Wall Street," claims “They just made up things.” 

Howie Gelfand, who partly inspired Jonah Hill’s character in the Martin Scorsese film "The Wolf of Wall Street," claims “They just made up things.” 

It's Wayne's world; Priscilla is just living in it.

Whether you're betting on the World Cup, you can use the Fanatics Sportsbook promo code NYPOST26 to get up to $1k matched in FanCash.

It’s astounding what can change within three weeks of a 162-game season.

Historic NYC Church Torched In Confirmed Arson - City Rejects Save Plan As Demolition Ordered

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

The FDNY has now confirmed what many suspected from the start: the massive fire that gutted the historic South Bushwick Reform Church in Brooklyn was intentionally set. The 1853 landmark, a Greek Revival structure that served generations of worshippers as both a house of faith and a community hub, is a total loss, and it will be completely torn down.

CBS New York reported the determination this week. Pastor James E. Steward II made clear the congregation never saw it coming.

"It was more than just a building. It's lives and generations of lives that have been touched," Steward said. "We have no known enemies."

CBS New York says the New York City Fire Department have come to the conclusion the historic Christian church recently set on fire was "intentionally set"

The South Bushwick Reform Church was built in 1863 and served generations of worshippers. It will be completely torn down... pic.twitter.com/npo7KfWQjV

— Wall Street Apes (@WallStreetApes) July 16, 2026

He added: "Now we understand it is intentional, which brings another layer of grief to myself, as well as the congregation and the community." And: "Whoever is responsible for this ultimately has to answer to God."

No arrests have been made. Investigators previously noted a person of interest seen fleeing the scene on video shortly before the June 19 blaze erupted. The three-alarm fire brought down the steeple and left the wooden structure irreparable in the eyes of city officials.

Yet the congregation and local supporters pushed to preserve what remained. An independent structural engineer assessed the site as sound enough for restoration efforts focused on the attached fellowship hall and surviving elements. The city's Department of Buildings rejected the plan. Demolition is set to begin in August. The agency is led by Commissioner Ahmed Tigani.

!!! NYC Department of Buildings rejects plan to save a 174-year-old church in Bushwick that burned via arson

Demolition is set to begin in August

Ahmed Tigani leads the agency pic.twitter.com/KbIwgu1vux

— End Wokeness (@EndWokeness) July 14, 2026

This is not an isolated loss. Just weeks earlier, a 138-year-old church in Astoria, Queens, suffered a devastating "mystery" fire in April. The city rejected proposals to rebuild. The structure was demolished two weeks later.

> 138 year old church in Astoria, NY

> is damaged by mystery fire in April

> the city rejects proposal to rebuild

> church is demolished 2 weeks later pic.twitter.com/JsXaNpemhw

— End Wokeness (@EndWokeness) July 14, 2026

The losses mirror those in Europe, where a spate of church attacks have occurred.

In France, nearly 50 fires or arson attempts hit churches and Christian sites in a single recent year - a sharp rise - with authorities recording a Christian religious building vanishing every two weeks through fire, collapse, or deliberate damage.

Recent examples include the June blaze that destroyed most of the roof at the 17th-century Chapelle Sainte-Anne-des-Rochers in Brittany and the gutting of the Église Saint-Cyriaque in Montenach.

 

Canada has seen the same. Historic churches have been reduced to ashes with causes left unresolved and little urgency from authorities.

In the UK, churches face routine attacks while official outrage is selectively applied. A historic London church burned to the ground amid government silence, even as leaders scrambled to respond to incidents involving other faith sites.

 

In New York the physical symbols of the city's Christian heritage are vanishing under official processes that prioritize teardown over preservation. The South Bushwick congregation is left raising what funds it can while the city bills the church for its own demolition and prepares the site for whatever comes next. The Astoria church is already gone.

These buildings stood for more than a century as anchors of community and continuity. Their rapid destruction, followed by bureaucratic refusal to allow rebuilding, fits a larger pattern playing out from Brooklyn to Quebec to provincial France. The foundations that built Western cities are being burned and demolished.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/17/2026 - 08:55

“Bye Nonno,” Samantha wrote on her story.

A few words of caution before you start buying stocks.

Watch: Trump Reveals 'Shocking' Election Vulnerabilities Including 278,000 Fraudulent Voters

Update (2110ET): Trump has released several major election-related findings: 

• Mass declassification event - The White House just released previously classified Intelligence Community assessments and reports on election infrastructure spanning January 2020 through June 2026.
• Adversary capability finding - A quoted IC assessment states Russia, China, Iran, North Korea "at a minimum," plus non-state groups, have the capability to compromise U.S. election infrastructure.
• Weakest-link identification - Centralized data repositories (voter registration databases, pollbooks, official election websites) are assessed as the systems most vulnerable to exploitation and disruption.
• Venezuela proof-of-concept - CIA reporting allegedly detailed a Maduro-regime plot to digitally rig Venezuela's 2020 elections using methods that could alter vote totals undetectably "even with an audit."
• China's 220 million voter files - The PRC allegedly acquired 220 million U.S. voter files beginning in the 2020 cycle - framed as the largest election-data compromise in history - and assigned a dedicated data exploitation unit to it.
• Alleged intelligence cover-up - The document claims IC officials ("Deep State") suppressed knowledge of the China compromise from both the President and the public, despite the IC discovering it in 2020 across 18 states.
• Michigan registration fraud files - FBI documents allegedly show canvassers for a Democrat GOTV operation in Muskegon admitted forging registrations, registering nonexistent people, and receiving gift cards tied to application volume after a 2020 Michigan State Police raid.
• Enforcement directive - The release asserts the Biden DOJ slow-walked the Michigan case for years; FBI Director Patel is now directed to complete the investigation and pursue prosecutions with DOJ.
• 278,000 noncitizen registrants - A DHS review of voter rolls and public records allegedly identified ~278,000 noncitizens registered for federal elections, with the White House asserting the true number is higher because Democrat-led states withheld their files.
• Policy endgame and rolling campaign - The four pillars converge into an argument for Voter ID, proof of citizenship, and curtailing mail ballots, with a mailing list promising "new findings, new filings, and next steps" - signaling a serialized release-and-enforcement campaign rather than a one-time disclosure.

Watch:

The White House has published election integrity findings built around four pillars, accompanying a presidential address and a declassification of Intelligence Community assessments spanning January 2020 through June 2026. The pillars: (1) IC findings that Russia, China, Iran, North Korea, and non-state actors have the capability to compromise U.S. election infrastructure, with centralized data repositories - registration databases, pollbooks, election websites - assessed as most vulnerable; (2) an alleged CIA-reported Maduro-regime plot to digitally rig Venezuela's 2020 elections using methods undetectable "even with an audit," offered as proof-of-concept that electronic vote manipulation is possible; (3) China's alleged acquisition of 220 million U.S. voter files beginning in 2020 - framed as history's largest election-data compromise, complete with a dedicated exploitation unit - which the document claims "Deep State" intelligence officials concealed from both the President and the public; and (4) FBI files on a 2020 Muskegon, Michigan raid of a Democrat GOTV operation where canvassers allegedly admitted forging registrations for pay, a case the Biden DOJ purportedly slow-walked and which FBI Director Patel is now directed to investigate and prosecute. A DHS review claiming roughly 278,000 noncitizens on federal voter rolls rounds out the disclosures.

The findings describe foreign-held voter data, hackable machines, buried fraud evidence, and noncitizen (and "dead people") registrations against a system with no voter ID, no proof of citizenship, and mass mail balloting - while a mailing list promising "new findings, new filings, and next steps" signals a serialized campaign with litigation or enforcement actions queued behind the document drops. 

Update: According to the NY Post's Caitlin Doornbos, Trump is expected to reveal at least 278,000 noncitizens who are registered to vote in US federal elections - a figure arrived at by the Department of Homeland Security in an upcoming report. 

This is what Kamala Harris had to say prior to President Trump’s speech. pic.twitter.com/qBMean2VJm

— Breaking911 (@Breaking911) July 17, 2026

* * *

President Donald Trump is expected to use a prime-time address Thursday night to discuss election integrity and potentially unveil 'four sets' of newly declassified intelligence concerning alleged foreign interference in recent U.S. elections, according to reports.

MSNBC; Getty Images

Trump is scheduled to address the nation at 9 p.m. ET tonight - only revealing that it would focus on election security and related concerns.

"Our country has to shape up," Trump said during an Oval Office appearance with Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaid. "Without free and fair elections, you don't have a country."

Journalist Paul Sperry reported on X that the address could include allegations that U.S. intelligence and law-enforcement agencies recently uncovered evidence of foreign interference involving China - not Russia - in recent elections, including the 2020 presidential contest.

Citing an unnamed administration source who had reportedly reviewed a draft of Trump's speech, Sperry claimed the evidence includes allegations that Chinese actors penetrated state voter-registration databases and obtained information concerning tens of thousands of voters.

According to Sperry, officials believe the stolen information may have been intended for use in manufacturing fraudulent mail-in ballots supporting Joe Biden. He also claimed that CIA Director John Ratcliffe and FBI Director Kash Patel would appear with Trump or otherwise certify the evidence presented by the administration.

Flashback: Chuck Grassley reveals records showing the FBI spiked a Chinese election interference probe

The documents were reportedly drawn from previously undisclosed or suppressed FBI, CIA, and ODNI records. Sperry's source alleged that the intelligence had been buried as part of a broader effort to conceal Beijing's cyber capabilities and influence operations.

The "really big news" President Trump plans to announce in Thursday's primetime address, according to an administration source who's read a draft of his speech, includes bombshell evidence China interfered in the 2020 election to help Joe Biden win, including hacking into state voter registration databases and stealing information on tens of thousands of voters ostensibly to manufacture mail-in ballots for Biden.

The evidence, which details "alarming vulnerabilities" of election infrastructure, is based on four (4) sets of declassified documents (set for release Friday) which were recently unearthed from suppressed FBI, CIA and ODNI records, according to the well-placed source. The intelligence had been buried in a "massive cover-up" of Beijing's hacking capabilities and influence operations aimed at supporting Biden.

Other vulnerabilities compromising the U.S. election system, according to a draft of the president's speech, include the existence of more than 100,000 non-citizens, including illegal immigrants, on voter rolls. -Paul Sperry

The source characterized the alleged penetration of the 2020 election system as more extensive than the Russian interference described by U.S. officials following the 2016 election.

So here's what we're learning from all these declassified materials: The US Intelligence Community *juiced* intel to make it seem like Moscow interfered in the 2016 election to help Trump, but then *buried* intel indicating Beijing interfered in the election to help Biden in 2020

— Paul Sperry (@paulsperry_) July 14, 2026

The expected disclosures reportedly concern vulnerabilities in state election infrastructure, including voter-registration databases, identity verification, mail-in voting, and ballot security.

//--> //--> //--> Will Trump accuse China of election interference by July 16?
Yes 40% · No 61%
View full market & trade on Polymarket

Sperry also reported that a draft of Trump's address references more than 100,000 noncitizens - including people living in the country illegally - appearing on voter rolls. It was not immediately clear which states or databases were included in that figure, how the administration calculated it, or whether all the registrations were active.

Administration Expands Election Integrity Campaign

The address comes as the Trump administration and congressional Republicans intensify their efforts to change federal election policy before the midterms.

Earlier in July, Trump fired members of the bipartisan Election Assistance Commission, the federal agency that assists state and local election officials and oversees the certification of voting systems. The administration has also pursued the creation of a nationwide database of eligible voters and expanded citizenship-verification efforts. Several of those initiatives have encountered resistance in federal court. On June 25, a federal district judge in Massachusetts sided with states challenging the administration's voter-list initiative, ruling that the Constitution leaves states with significant authority over elections. Meanwhile, a federal judge in Washington blocked an updated citizenship-verification database the following day, finding that the program conflicted with federal privacy and Social Security laws.

Then on July 7, a federal judge in Georgia quashed Justice Department subpoenas seeking information about election workers involved in Fulton County's administration of the 2020 election.

Harmeet Dhillon, who leads the Justice Department's Civil Rights Division, has also sent letters to election officials in all 50 states and the District of Columbia. The letters warned that officials could face criminal liability if they knowingly allow ineligible noncitizens to remain on voter rolls.

Democrats, Of Course, Freak Out

Democratic lawmakers are of course in full-on panic mode over the 2020 claims, suggesting that Trump could use the address to revive disputed allegations about the 2020 election or justify new federal intervention in the midterm election process.

Sen. Mark Warner of Virginia, the ranking Democrat on the Senate Intelligence Committee, questioned whether the administration could possess significant new intelligence that had not previously been provided to congressional overseers. Warner told the Epoch Times; "having been deeply involved with the intelligence community for the last decade plus, I would be shocked if there was some major new piece of intelligence that never was shared." He also warned against using questionable or selectively presented intelligence as the basis for government action affecting elections.

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer of New York said Democrats were preparing for several possible scenarios involving the address and the administration's next steps.

Sperry separately reported that the White House had encountered resistance from the three major broadcast television networks over requests to carry the address live. He attributed the hesitation to concerns that the speech might repeat claims that the 2020 election was stolen.

The networks' plans and the White House's reported discussions with them had not been publicly confirmed.

Trump has described the forthcoming announcement as "really big news." Whether the address produces verifiable new evidence - or intensifies the existing partisan conflict over election administration - will likely depend on the contents, sourcing, and independent authentication of any documents released by the government.

SAVE America Act Remains Stalled

Trump has repeatedly called on Congress to approve the Republican-backed SAVE America Act, which would require documentary proof of citizenship when registering to vote and photo identification when casting a ballot.

The legislation passed the House but has stalled in the Senate, where most bills need 60 votes to overcome a filibuster. Republican leaders have considered incorporating similar provisions into a third budget-reconciliation package. The reconciliation process would allow legislation to pass the Senate with a simple majority, although provisions must comply with rules requiring them to have a direct effect on federal spending or revenue.

The Senate parliamentarian previously determined that certain SAVE America provisions did not comply with those restrictions. House Republicans released a $95 billion framework for the reconciliation package on July 15. The proposal could include federal funding to help states establish voter-identification requirements.

The House Budget Committee scheduled a markup of the legislation for July 16. Committee Chairman Jodey Arrington of Texas said the package would help protect the integrity of U.S. elections.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/17/2026 - 08:44

Renter Nation Returns? Massive Jump In Multi-Family Unit Starts Despite Builder Sentiment Slump

US Housing Starts exploded higher by 19% MoM in June, dramatically more than the already large 11.2% MoM expectation and rebounding from the prior two ugly monthly declines.

This was the biggest monthly increase in Starts since May 2023.

On the other side, the more forward-looking Building Permits declined for a second straight month...

This shouldn't be a total surprise after yesterday's decline in builder sentiment (confidence among US homebuilders dropped for a second month to the lowest level of the year, dragged lower by elevated borrowing costs and higher material and land prices).

The surge in Starts was dominated by a massive rebound in multi-family units.

• Single-family down 0.2% to 895K

• Multi-family (rentals) soar 76.3% to 513K from 293K, fully reversing the May drop from 494K to 291K

We can't help but question WTF happened in the May multi-family starts data...

Permits were down among both cohorts:

• single family down 2.4% to 871K SAAR, lowest since August '25

• multi-family down to 4.9% to 445K SAAR, lowest since March '26

Additionally, Building Permits are tracking rate-hike expectations (inverted)...

Multi-family Starts are back above Permits (perhaps signaling the short-term peak)...

It seems recent rises in the mortgage rate (and inventories already at over-stuffed levels, given the slowness of sales) has finally dented the homebuilders' self-satisfying confidence... and the lack of affordability leaves the American Dream fading into Renter Nation...

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/17/2026 - 08:43

Brenda Fricker, the actress best known for playing the iconic Pigeon Lady in “Home Alone 2,” has died.

Brenda Fricker, the actress best known for playing the iconic Pigeon Lady in “Home Alone 2,” has died. She was 81. The Oscar winner’s agent confirmed the news to the US Sun on Friday, saying, “We will never see her like again, and the world is lesser for the lack of her.” The statement continued,...

Investors are starting to have their doubts with Mamdani in charge, Wall Street salesmen say.

Futures Tumble As Latest Chinese "DeepSeek Moment" Sparks Chip Meltdown

A surprise breakthrough from Chinese AI startup Moonshot (which is now at the top of the Frontend code benchmark on Arena) rumbled through global markets, sending chip stocks reeling, as queasiness returned about the industry’s unprecedented spending spree (something we have been warning about for the past year). Moonshot claims its new Kimi K3 model rivals top offerings from OpenAI and Anthropic in a release reminiscent of last year’s “DeepSeek moment.” It came as President Xi Jinping appeared at China’s premier AI summit, underscoring how rapidly the nation’s AI developers are closing the gap with US rivals (discussed here a month ago). Meanwhile, delays by Alphabet to the launch of the latest Gemini model has also dented tech sentiment. As a result as of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are 0.8% lower with Nasdaq futs tumbling 1.7%; pre-market, Mag 7 are all lower with NVDA (-2.8%), AMZN (-2.1%), and META (-1.8%) among the most notable decliners. AI and Semis concerns continued to dominate the market narrative overnight ahead of Mag 7 earnings next week. What is different from the past few weeks of momentum selloff is that both Mag 7 and Semis were being sold overnight and yesterday, pointing to "concerns over hyperscalers’ AI CapEx and the sustainability of the AI rally" according to JPM. Moonshot’s AI model release also led to further concerns in China AI model competition and questions on AI CapEx (“DeepSeek 2.0” concerns): overnight, Asia AI baskets and China AI baskets (which include Moonshot’s competitors Z.AI and MiniMax) fell 5-8%. Bond yields are lower across the curve: 2y and 10y are 2.1bp and 2.8bp lower, respectively. Oil added another 1.8%; WTI now at $80.47 this morning after Kuwait said power and water plants were attacked by Iran as hostilities in the Gulf escalate with every passing day. Both base and precious metals are higher this morning. US economic data calendar includes June import/export price index, and June housing starts (8:30am), June industrial production (9:15am) and July preliminary University of Michigan sentiment (10am). 

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are all lower (Nvidia -2.4%, Amazon -1.4%, Microsoft -1.9%, Tesla -1.7%, Alphabet -1.5%, Meta Platforms -1.5%, Apple -0.1%). Chipmakers and other AI-related firms are set to extend their selloff amid a broad unwind of the tech trade. Marvell Technology (MRVL) -2%, Qualcomm -2%.

• Autoliv (ALV) falls 5% after the airbag and seatbelt maker reported second-quarter adjusted earnings per share that narrowly missed consensus estimates.
• Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) tumbles 10% after the robotic-surgery company maintained its forecast for Worldwide da Vinci robotic procedure growth for the full year, even as its second-quarter results came in ahead of the average analyst estimates.
• Netflix (NFLX) falls 10% after the streaming giant forecast a second consecutive quarter of slowing sales growth. Analysts note that the tepid current quarter forecast is overshadowing an otherwise in-line quarter.
• Staar Surgical (STAA) drops 8% after the maker of implantable lenses posted preliminary second quarter results where sales in Europe, theMiddle East and Africa declined by a low single-digit percentage, reflecting ongoing turmoil in the Middle East.

In other corporate news SpaceX aborted Thursday’s Starship rocket mission when some of its engines didn’t fire up, it's stock tumbled another 3% to $125, the lowest since its IPO less than two months ago. US regulators traced a parasite outbreak that’s sickened thousands in Michigan and nearby states to shredded iceberg lettuce served at Taco Bell restaurants, identifying a single supplier as the apparent source.

Tech is once again dragging futures lower in early trading as questions over momentum, semiconductor capex and hyperscaler debt persist, masking a powerful rotation beneath the surface. Traders rushed to exit positions in stocks that had fueled this year’s rally, sending the Nasdaq tumbling. The S&P 500 Equal Weight Index posted an all-time high in Thursday’s cash session and the VIX remains below the key psychological level of 20, but the S&P 500 is down on the week and set to deepen those losses on Friday.

Stock investors are taking profits on crowded positions in chip-related stocks, with a key gauge of industry giants still up 68% this year. For Francisco Simon, European head of strategy at Santander Asset Management, the selloff still looks moderate in comparison to the preceding rally. “We would distinguish between fundamentals and positioning,” he said. “From a fundamental perspective, the picture remains solid: earnings momentum has been exceptional this year, and results are still coming in strongly.”

Beata Manthey, head of European and global equity strategy at Citigroup, says sharp stock rotations are necessary for the equity rally to broaden beyond the tech sector. “The market has started to hope for some long-awaited broadening,” Manthey told Bloomberg Television. “For that to happen, you need to have some rotations, and rotations tend to happen in quite a violent way sometimes — and this is what we’re seeing right now.”

Also in tech, the marquee listing of CXMT ignited a rush among retail investors as China’s homegrown memory giant opened books for an IPO to raise $9.8 billion, the second-largest in the nation’s history. The retail portion of the IPO was 212 times oversubscribed. President Xi hailed China’s progress in developing low-cost AI in his debut at the World AI Conference in Shanghai on Friday. The rise of China’s AI models shaping the technology’s global rules is stirring security alarms in Washington and Beijing alike.Elsewhere, Japanese memory chipmaker Kioxia’s market capitalization has now halved in just a month since becoming the nation’s most valuable company. 

“When there’s panic, no one wants to be the last one in a selloff, so the selling pressure increases,” said Guillermo Hernández Sampere, head of trading at MPPM. “With the start of reporting, the suspicion of overvaluation has been confirmed and will continue for a bit.”

In short, chipmakers and other AI-related firms are set to extend their selloff amid a broad unwind of the tech trade. Meanwhile Netflix, already more than 40% lower in the past year, is also weighing on tech sentiment. The streaming giant fell 10% in premarket trade Friday after forecasting a second consecutive quarter of slowing sales growth, fanning fears for its future.

Cash would offer good protection in the near term, Simon at Santander Asset Management said. Bonds are a less attractive option as higher oil prices could undermine the defensive characteristics of sovereign debt. “The key reassurance would probably come from the earnings season,” he said. “If companies continue to deliver solid results, and valuations become more attractive after the correction, that could help bring longer-term buyers back.”

Another day of attacks and counterstrikes in the Middle East also weighed on sentiment. Concerns are growing that the US and Iran will intensify hostilities, making oil tanker operators wary of transiting the Strait of Hormuz.  

In geopolitics, Trump accused China of interfering with US elections in 2020, claiming the Chinese government stole voter files, including names, addresses and other sensitive data. The US administration said it would shorten the duration of visas for foreign journalists - raising concern about a new round of tit-for-tat restrictions with China.

Meanwhile, the Fed’s Vice Chair Philip Jefferson suggested the central bank should consider raising interest rates if inflation doesn’t cool soon. 

Selling by US corporate insiders raised another red flag about investor caution. Executives sold $77.6 billion of stock during the first half, according to EPFR Global Market Intelligence, the second-highest amount in more than 20 years a classic red flag to some investors because it suggests people with the most corporate knowledge are wary about markets.

European equities edged lower on Friday. with technology and mining shares leading declines, while utilities and telecommunications stocks outperform. Tech subindex of the Stoxx 600 down to the lowest since May. Here are the biggest movers on Friday:

• Tomra gains as much as 16% after the recycling equipment firm’s 2Q report beat expectations and the firm announced a contract to supply 1,200 recycling machines with a large UK retailer
• EQT rises as much as 13% after the investment firm’s first-half earnings beat estimates, providing some relief to a stock that had fallen more than 20% year-to-date through Thursday
• Getinge shares jump as much as 10% after the Swedish health-care equipment firm reported second-quarter sales and earnings which JPMorgan says were better than expected
• Assa Abloy gains as much as 6.2%, the most in a year, after the Swedish lock and entrance systems maker reported its latest earnings
• European semiconductor stocks decline across the board on Friday. AI trades that were popular in the first half lose ground amid concerns over the sustainability of AI spending
• Lagercrantz shares plunge as much as 16%, its biggest drop since 2022. The industrial conglomerate posted quarterly margins and earnings that missed expectations, according to DNB Carnegie
• AAK sinks as much as 12% after the Swedish maker of vegetable oils and fats saw a softer second quarter, impacted by lower volumes, price pressure in Food Ingredients and production-related challenges at its Karlshamn site
• DKSH shares fall as much as 8.3%, the most since September, after the Swiss conglomerate reported operating profit for the first half-year that missed the average analyst estimate
• Burberry shares fall as much as 7.3% after the UK luxury brand posted first-quarter results that were weaker than expected in Europe and Asia
• Valterra Platinum slipped as much as 2.4% after the miner reported 2Q earnings and 1H guidance. Analysts note that 2Q own mined volumes missed, while PGM refined production was in line

Asian stocks slipped the most in three weeks despite robust earnings from Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., highlighting how elevated expectations have become for AI-related companies. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped 2.8% and is headed for a second straight weekly decline. TSMC fell more than 7%, triggering a correction in Taiwan’s Taiex. The Nikkei 225 slid 4% as Japanese chip-related stocks such as Kioxia Holdings Corp. and Tokyo Electron Ltd. came under pressure. Hong Kong and mainland China also declined, while South Korea’s markets were mercifully closed for a holiday, even though the KORU 3x levered korea ETF plunged. TSMC reported a faster-than-anticipated 77% jump in quarterly net income and raised both its revenue and spending projections. The main chipmaker for Nvidia Corp. now expects sales to grow more than 40% this year and plans to spend as much as $64 billion in 2026, reflecting confidence that AI-driven demand for chips and data centers will remain strong. Some markets with lower exposure to AI such as Indonesia, the Philippines and India rose. Malaysia’s benchmark stock index gained 0.5% as the country reported a surprise surge in economic growth in the second quarter. Investors will focus on earnings for companies including CATL and Shin-Etsu Chemical in the week ahead. Other key events include Indonesia’s monetary policy. The Jakarta stock index has climbed for seven straight sessions, the longest streak in about a year. 

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is up 0.1%, with the Swiss franc outperforming among major currencies while the Aussie dollar and sterling lag. Traders continued to dial down expectations for Federal Reserve interest-rate hikes this year. 

In rates, treasuries hold modest gains despite the rise in oil prices, sending 10-year yields four basis points lower to 4.52% with US stock index futures under pressure from chipmaker shares after surprise breakthrough from Chinese AI startup Moonshot and Alphabet’s delayed launch of latest Gemini model. Limiting gains, oil futures are up more than 2% after Kuwait said power and water plants were attacked by Iran. Treasury yields are 2bp-4bp lower led by 5- to 10-year sectors, flattening 2s10s curve by about 1bp; 10-year near 4.51% outperforms bunds and gilts in the sector by 2bp and 1bp respectively. 

In commodities, WTI crude oil futures are up 2.6% near session highs, heading for biggest weekly gain since April as the escalating conflict between the US and Iran disrupts Middle East supply. IG dollar issuance slate empty so far, though Bank of America, Citigroup and Wells Fargo are expected to tap the market as soon as Friday; weekly volume is near $47 billion. Gold moving higher but short of $4,000/oz.

US economic data calendar includes June import/export price index, and June housing starts (8:30am), June industrial production (9:15am) and July preliminary University of Michigan sentiment (10am). Fed calendar is blank; external communications blackout period commences Saturday ahead of the July 29 policy decision

Market Snapshot

Top Overnight News

• US President Trump announced the immediate declassification of intelligence on elections during his primetime address and noted that China engaged in election-related activities in 2020 and did not want him to win the election, while he claimed that China attempted to manufacture ballots for Biden and worked to influence businesses against him. China's Foreign Ministry denied these accusations.
• China’s Moonshot AI has launched an artificial-intelligence model, Kimi K3, it says outperforms some cutting-edge U.S. systems, the latest sign that Chinese labs can rival American counterparts like OpenAI and Anthropic in critical technology frontiers. WSJ
• The U.S. struck multiple bridges in Iran on Thursday to cut off supply routes to a port city and naval base in the Strait of Hormuz that Iran uses to attack ships and project power, according to a senior U.S. official. Several attacks on bridges were reported in and around the port city of Bandar Abbas overnight Thursday, and highways connecting Bandar Abbas to nearby provinces were declared closed, according to Iran’s state broadcaster IRIB. WSJ
• Two US-sanctioned tankers carrying cooking fuel are U-turning and navigating in the Gulf of Oman and Arabian Sea as the US steps up enforcement of its blockade on Iranian shipping. A third sanctioned LPG vessel is indicating China as its destination. BBG
• Japanese PM Sanae Takaichi called for households and the GPIF to increase investment in domestic financial assets, fueling expectations of possible allocation changes at the fund. Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama reiterated her willingness to take “decisive action” in currency markets. BBG
• Xi Jinping called for inclusive cooperation on AI development and urged the world to avoid technological rivalries at China’s top tech summit. BBG 
• The ECB will probably pause to assess inflation next week before delivering a final rate hike in September. BBG
• New York City air quality remains at “unhealthy” levels today as the EPA warned people to spend more time indoors, with wildfire smoke blanketing much of the East Coast. Several communities across northern Ontario have initiated evacuation to avoid the blaze. BBG
• BP and ConocoPhillips are set to announce billions of dollars of new investments in Iraq on Friday as Washington seeks to bolster the country’s energy sector and reduce the region’s reliance on routes vulnerable to Iranian disruption, according to people familiar with the plans. CNBC
• A top executive at Amazon’s cloud division plans to join Meta Platforms in the coming weeks, a sign of the social-media giant’s growing ambitions in developing data centers and computing resources. Dave Brown, one of the most senior executives at Amazon Web Services, will bring his nearly two decades of experience to Meta, where he will report to the company’s head of infrastructure and focus on the firm’s data center build-out. WSJ 
• US President Trump called on Congress to pass the Save America Act in light of recent revelations.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were pressured as the tech selling rolled over from Wall St and with sentiment weighed on by US-Iran escalation, in which the US conducted a sixth consecutive night of strikes on Iran and targeted infrastructure, including an airport, railway station and several bridges. ASX 200 was dragged lower by weakness in mining, materials, resources and tech, while telecoms, energy and defensives were at the other end of the spectrum, helping cushion the downside. Nikkei 225 underperformed and took the brunt of the semiconductor sell-off in the absence of its South Korean counterpart due to Constitution Day, while Kioxia was heavily pressured and has shed 50% of its market cap from last month's peak. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp conformed to the downbeat mood amid the tech-related woes, and with sentiment also not helped by US President Trump's primetime address, in which he accused China of meddling in the 2024 US Election and called for Congress to pass the SAVE America Act.

Top Asian News

• Japanese PM Takaichi said the government will pursue steps that encourage investment in Japanese financial assets, including by households and pension funds like the GPIF.
• Chinese President Xi said that the world has entered an unprecedented period of AI innovation, adding they should seize rare historic opportunities to encourage open source AI.
• China FX regulator said foreign investments into China saw net inflows in H1 and outbound investments continue to grow steadily.

European bourses (STOXX 600 -0.7%) are broadly lower, following on from the weakness in Asia (Nikkei -4%, Hang Seng -2.1%), with clear underperformance seen in the AEX (-1.0%) and FTSE MIB (-0.8%). Tech (ASML -4.2%, STMicroelectronics -6.9%) is the clear underperformer following the sharp selloff overnight in APAC names, as worries of stretched valuations persist. Despite the selloff, this week has been broadly positive in the tech space, with both TSMC and ASML reporting strong Q2 figures that beat estimates. Today's weakness just shows that, despite positive news, concerns over the AI capex and its current momentum persist. In terms of the broader sector space, the bias is mixed. Utilities (+1.5%) top the sector pile, followed by Food, Beverages & Tobacco (+0.9%) and Telecoms (+1.1%). Outside of Tech (-2.9%), Basic Resources (-2.1%) and Banks (-1.2%) are the sector laggards. US equity futures are lower across the board, with underperformance in the NQ (-1.9%), given the tech weakness overnight. After-hours, Netflix (-9% pre-market) reported Q2 earnings that came broadly in-line with expectations, but investors were left disappointed by its earnings forecast, with Q3 EPS and Revenue guidance missing estimates. For SpaceX (-3.5% pre-market) , shares fell below its IPO price of USD 135 for the first time on Thursday after the launch of Flight 13 was aborted.

Top European News

• EU Inflation Rate YoY Final (Jun) Y/Y 2.8% vs. Exp. 2.8% (Prev. 3.2%, Low. 2.8%, High. 2.9%).
• EU Inflation Rate MoM Final (Jun) M/M -0.1% vs. Exp. -0.1% (Prev. 0.1%, Low. -0.1%, High. -0.1%).
• EU Core Inflation Rate YoY Final (Jun) Y/Y 2.4% vs. Exp. 2.4% (Prev. 2.6%).

FX

• G10s are mixed against Buck with recent outperformers AUD and GBP underperforming against the Greenback, while Thursday’s CHF underperformance reverses.
• USD is modestly firmer today as it gains some haven demand as stocks (NQ -1.9%) slip as tech weakness remains a theme. A couple of factors are driving today, but to summarise, Nikkei 225 was the target for selling amid the KOSPI closure overnight (due to domestic holiday), which saw stocks take a stronger negative lead from APAC and help the Buck. Aside from this, macro newsflow is light with crude a touch firmer as US and Iran continue to exchange strikes for the sixth day.
• GBP, which is set for a fourth week of gains, pulls back a touch from the 1.35 level as participants await the coronation of incoming PM Burnham. EUR/GBP also saw Sterling outperform for its fourth week, but like Cable, off recent lows as it reclaims 0.85. There remains a level of uncertainty around the incoming PM, with none of his cabinet officials confirmed as of yet, and many policies still unknown. ING expects a return to 0.870 in EUR/GBP by late summer.
• JPY is flat against the Buck despite c. 30pips of downside seen this morning. Japanese PM Takaichi said the govt. would pursue steps that encourage investment in Japanese financial assets, including by households and pension funds like the GPIF. To remind, last week FinMin Katayama said she would pursue steps to promote investment in Japanese assets by GPIF and others. There was some scepticism around this remark as it would be a textbook tactic to encourage domestic investment and passively limit outflows - Katayama is not in a position to direct changes, it would be under the jurisdiction of the Labour Ministry. We await further updates with a timeline around any potential GPIF changes, for now, JPY flat against the Buck near 162.50 despite earlier gains.

Fixed Income

• Fixed income benchmarks are firmer across the board, despite a clear driver; however, debt could be finding some haven flows as equities print deep selloffs globally.
• Gilts (+26 ticks) outperform, with Andy Burnham to begin his Labour premiership on Monday. Focus will be on who Burnham chooses as Chancellor (widely expected to be Home Secretary Mahmood) and what his plans are for the government. Reporting by Bloomberg stated that he has asked the civil service to prepare plans for new North Sea oil and gas drilling and public control of Thames Water. Regarding the Chancellor position, Mahmood is likely to be named Chancellor, but this has already drawn some backlash. Rachel Maskell told the Times that appointing Mahmood would be a mistake and that Miliband “shines well above Shabana.” Despite this, gilts trade at the top end of its 87.15-87.59 range.
• JGBs (+36 ticks) have steadily bid higher in early European trade, after Japanese PM Takaichi said the government will pursue steps that encourage investment in Japanese financial assets, including by households and pension funds. She even specifically named GPIF. Focus on pension fund investments in domestic assets started after FinMin Katayama said she wanted to encourage the GPIF to invest more. Takaichi's more recent comments would likely strengthen the view that the government is keen to have the GPIF consider altering its asset allocations.
• USTs (+8 ticks) trend higher despite a lack of events on the calendar. Fed's Jefferson gave remarks overnight, stating that it would be appropriate to reconsider the stance in the scenario in which inflation does not start cooling.

Commodities

• The US continued to strike Iran for a sixth consecutive night. Following this, Iran claimed power facilities, bridges and civilian infrastructure were struck. And in response, Iran launched its own strikes on Gulf neighbours.
• More pertinently was a severe warning from the Iranian Army Spokesman. He stated that if the US strike the infrastructure of Iran, all infrastructure in the region will be a legitimate target; He added that “either all countries in the region can export oil or no one can”.
• Other news in the region, the UKMTO received 2 reports. More recently, there was a report 65NM south of Al Mukalia, in which unauthorised personnel boarded the vessel. Sources say armed assailants boarded a chemical products tanker Asana in the Gulf of Aden, which is potentially related.
• Crude benchmarks spent the overnight session in the green, amidst the aforementioned developments. Brent Sep’26 (+1.7%) holds towards the top end of a USD 83.71-85.88/bbl range.
• Spot gold (+0.5%) is incrementally firmer this morning, though still remains just shy of the USD 4k/oz mark, after dipping below that mark in the prior session. Recent pressure has been driven by the ongoing inflationary woes surrounding the latest US-Iran escalation. Nonetheless, some analysts remain confident in the structural drivers for the yellow metal, namely, continued central bank purchases. Elsewhere, base metals are broadly in the red this morning – hampered by the risk tone. 3M LME Copper trades within a USD 13,429-13,563/t range.
• BP (BP/LN) and ConocoPhillips (COP) reportedly set to announce billions of dollars of new investments in Iraq on Friday, CNBC reports; sources said the figure may be in the tens of billions.
• Chinese LNG importers are exploring ways to reduce reliance on Qatar, Bloomberg reported.
• China State Planner NDRC to cut retail fuel prices in the current bi-monthly cycle, effective July 18th. To cut gasoline prices by CNY 300/t, and diesel by CNY 290/t.
• TotalEnergies (TTE FP) cut output at Port Arthur refinery as the reformer is undergoing repairs.

Central Banks

• Fed's Jefferson (voter) said the current policy stance should support the job market and allow inflation to resume its decline towards 2% as tariff effects and energy prices pass through. Jefferson said in a scenario where inflation does not start cooling, it could be appropriate to reconsider the stance and ensure they deliver price stability, while he added that current policy is well-positioned to respond based on incoming data, the evolving outlook and balance of risks, and he is firmly committed to returning inflation to the 2% target, consistent with the dual mandate.
• BoJ reportedly sees little need for consecutive rate rises, may reconsider its assessment of economic risks, according to Bloomberg citing sources. It is also likely to raise its growth forecast for this year from its current 0.5%. Officials may revise their downside-risk assessment as AI-related demand supports exports, profits and incomes, while faster cost pass-through keeps underlying inflation risks elevated above the 2% target.

Geopolitics

• US President Trump said they will see the fruits of labour in Iran shortly.
• US CENTCOM said forces conducted a new wave of strikes against Iran for the sixth consecutive night to further degrade Iranian military capabilities. The US launched a missile attack on Iranshahr airport, targeted a railway station in Bandar Abbas and struck five bridges in southern Iran. It was also reported that explosions were heard in Ahvaz, Chabahar and Bushehr, with missiles hitting air and naval bases in Bushehr.
• US CENTCOM announced Marines conducted an inspection aboard M/T Wen Yao in the Gulf of Oman on July 16th, while it was separately reported that only three ships crossed the Strait of Hormuz in the last 24 hours, according to marine traffic data cited by Al Jazeera.
• Iran targeted US radars in Kuwait with a drone strike, and explosions were reported at the US Navy's Fifth Fleet Naval Base in Bahrain, while blasts were heard at a US airbase in Qatar and in Erbil, Iraq.
• IRGC claimed to have launched an attack on a US command centre in Syria's Al-Tanf, while it warned no oil or gas will be exported through the Strait of Hormuz as long as US attacks continue.
• Iran has informed allies, including Hezbollah, that the waiting phase is about to end and ordered them to prepare for military scenarios, according to Kann news citing Lebanese press.
• Kuwait’s Defence Ministry said Iranian 'aggression' on Thursday targeted a number of vital facilities, resulting in material damage.
• Iranian armed forces senior spokesperson said they will never allow the US to interfere in the Strait of Hormuz, while he stated that the route Iran has determined in the Strait of Hormuz is safe, and any route outside it will be unsafe and ships will be damaged. The spokesperson also warned that if the US strike the infrastructure of Iran, all infrastructure in the region will be a legitimate target and stated that "Either all countries in the region can export oil or no one can".
• UKMTO has received a report of an incident 19 nautical miles east of Khasab, Oman. Additionally, the UKMTO received another report of an incident 65NM south of Al Mukalia, Yemen, with the vessel boarded by unauthorised personnel. Following this, maritime sources said armed assailants boarded a chemical products tanker Asana in the Gulf of Aden, off the coast of southern Yemen.
• Lebanese sources said the US-Israeli-Lebanon meeting would likely be postponed to finalise technical arrangements, Sky News Arabia reported.
• Islamic Resistance of Iraq put a USD 10mln bounty on US President Trump.
• Naftogaz said a Russian drone attack suspended operations at a gas production facility in Ukraine’s Kharkiv region.

US Event Calendar

• 8:30 am: Jun Import Price Index MoM, est. -0.65%, prior 1.9%
• 8:30 am: Jun Housing Starts, est. 1310k, prior 1177k
• 8:30 am: Jun P Building Permits, est. 1403k, prior 1410k
• 9:15 am: Jun Industrial Production MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.1%
• 9:15 am: Jun Capacity Utilization, est. 76.2%, prior 76.2%
• 10:00 am: Jul P U. of Mich. Sentiment, est. 51, prior 49.5

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

As we go to press this morning, global equities are continuing to slump, as fresh doubts about the AI trade have driven a pronounced selloff in tech stocks. Indeed, the S&P 500 fell -0.51% yesterday, and this morning futures are down another -0.78%. Moreover, there’s no sign of any letup this morning in Asia, with very sharp declines for the Nikkei (-4.81%), the CSI 300 (-2.45%), the Hang Seng (-1.98%) and the Shanghai Comp (-1.64%), whilst the KOSPI is closed for a public holiday. Indeed, that slide indicates the Nikkei is currently likely on course for its worst day since March, and also leaves the index on track for technical correction territory, having now shed over 12% since its peak less than a month ago.

There wasn’t a single catalyst behind the selloff, but we had TSMC’s earnings shortly after we went to press yesterday, and their share price is down -5.26% this morning after they said that capital expenditure would be higher than previously forecast. Meanwhile, Netflix’s earnings disappointed after the close last night, pushing their shares almost -9% lower in after-hours trading. And in the background, fears about rate hikes and more persistent inflation are still there, with Brent crude oil up another +1.06% this morning to $85.12/bbl. That would be its first close above $85/bbl in over a month, and that combination of concerns around tech and inflation has really put a dent in the more buoyant narrative after the soft US CPI report earlier this week.  

Before the slump accelerated overnight, US equities had already seen a rough session yesterday thanks to the fresh slide in chip stocks. In fact, the Philly semiconductor index (-4.29%) hit an 8-week low, having now shed -18.91% from its peak less than a month ago. So that now leaves it close to the -20% mark that would mark a technical start of a bear market, which is a big turnaround from Q2, when it posted its best quarterly performance since the index began in the early 1990s. The AI-related tech pullback wasn’t limited to chipmakers either, with a decline for the Mag-7 (-1.27%) led by a slide in Alphabet’s shares (-4.44%) after Bloomberg reported a months-long delay for its new Gemini 3.5 Pro AI model. So that tech decline dragged on the S&P 500 (-0.51%), which fell even as nearly three-quarters of its constituents advanced on the day.

That positive breadth in the US stock market was supported by the latest batch of US data, which suggested that the economy was still in decent shape. Most notably, the weekly initial jobless claims were down to 208k in the week ending July 11 (vs. 217k expected), which was their lowest in two months. So that reassured investors that the labour market was holding up into Q3. Meanwhile, retail sales grew by +0.2% in June as expected, and there was an upward revision of a tenth to the May figures. So collectively, that added to the picture of ongoing data resilience, and we also saw the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate for Q2 move up as well, now showing an annualised rate of +1.7% (vs. +1.3% before).

In terms of the latest in the Middle East, oil prices oscillated back and forth through the day, as strikes between the US and Iran continued. But this morning they’re currently slightly higher at $85.12/bbl, which would be their first close above $85/bbl in over a month if sustained. In terms of the latest, the US military said overnight that they’ve completed another wave of strikes on Iran, whilst Iran’s Press TV said they targeted US military sites in Kuwait. Otherwise, there was also a Reuters report yesterday that Iran had asked its Houthi allies in Yemen to be ready to close the Red Sea oil route if the US struck Iran’s power network, which raised fears about further supply-chain disruption.
This backdrop saw the probability of a Fed hike by September inch up from 55% to 57%, whilst the number of hikes priced by December was up +1.1bps on the day to 27bps. In turn, Treasury yields edged higher as well, with the 2yr yield (+0.6bps) up to 4.14%, whilst the 10yr yield (+0.5bps) stood at 4.55%. Those moves came as Fed speakers highlighted the potential for rate hikes. For instance, Dallas Fed President Logan (voter) said that “modestly higher interest rates would better balance the outlook and risks” as the path towards a disinflation scenario was for now “more a hope than a likelihood”. Meanwhile, Kansas City Fed President Schmid (non-voter) cautioned that even though the June inflation data was better than expected, inflation “is too hot and has been above target for too long”.  

Earlier on, European markets had mixed performance before the slump gathered pace later in the US session. On the bright side, the STOXX 600 (+0.16%) posted a third consecutive advance. But there was an uneven picture across the continent, with gains for the UK’s FTSE 100 (+0.54%) and Spain’s IBEX 35 (+0.15%), alongside losses for the German DAX (-0.34%) and France’s CAC 40 (-0.05%). For sovereign bonds, there were more consistent losses, with 10yr bund yields (+1.3bps) up to 3.13%, whilst 10yr OAT yields (+1.7bps) hit a post-2009 high of 3.93%. European bonds weren’t helped by a continued rise in European natural gas prices, with futures up another +0.79% to a 3-month high of €54.79/MWh.

Here in the UK, data showed GDP grew by a monthly +0.1% in May (vs. unch expected). So gilts underperformed following the data, with the 10yr yield (+2.8bps) rising as investors dialled up the chance of Bank of England rate hikes this year. Meanwhile, Andy Burnham is set to become leader of the governing Labour Party today, having been the only candidate nominated in the contest. He’s then set to become Prime Minister on Monday, after incumbent PM Keir Starmer formally resigns.

Finally, yesterday saw a notable milestone for gold (-2.07%), which fell back below $4,000 to close at its lowest level of 2026 so far at $3,976/oz. That’s a far cry from how it began the year, as January saw gold’s best monthly performance since 1999. But it’s now down over -7% since the year began, and over -25% from its late-January peak.  

Looking at the day ahead, US data releases include industrial production, capacity utilization, housing starts and building permits for June, along with the University of Michigan’s preliminary consumer sentiment index for July. In the Euro Area, there’s also the final CPI print for June. Otherwise, central bank speakers include Fed Vice Chair Jefferson and the ECB’s Cipollone.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/17/2026 - 08:35

The New York metro area is still suffering from punishing haze and choking smoke from the Canadian wildfires, but experts are hopeful a change in the weather could offer some relief in time for Sunday’s FIFA World Cup Final. New Yorkers woke up again Friday to “unhealthy” air quality levels, triggering health alerts as the...