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Lilly's Next-Gen Weight-Loss Drug Clears Trial With Near-Bariatric Surgery Results

Eli Lilly reported positive Phase 3 results for its next-generation obesity drug, retatrutide, which delivered weight-loss results on par with those of bariatric surgery.

In the TRIUMPH-1 trial, overweight adults, but without diabetes, achieved meaningful weight loss across all tested doses after 80 weeks:

• 12 mg dose: average weight loss of 70.3 pounds, or 28.3% of body weight.

• 9 mg dose: average weight loss of 64.4 pounds, or 25.9%.

• 4 mg dose: average weight loss of 47.2 pounds, or 19%

Ahead of the results, RBC Capital Markets analyst Trung Huynh said the key success range would be 28% to 30% weight loss.

Lilly's 12 mg dose appears to have cleared the low end of Huynh's bar, with patients losing an average of 28.3% of their body weight over 80 weeks.

"We're in a zone that's historically been associated with bariatric surgery, and you're getting it with a medicine," Kenneth Custer, president of Lilly Cardiometabolic Health, told Bloomberg in an interview.

Custer added, "I think we can definitively check the box" based on the data that "retatrutide moves the goalpost on max efficacy."

Retatrutide is a first-in-class triple hormone receptor agonist targeting GIP, GLP-1, and glucagon, positioning it as potentially superior to current weight-loss drugs such as Lilly's Zepbound, Novo Nordisk's Wegovy, and copycat GLP-1s.

Lilly noted some downsides to taking the drug in the trial:

Events of dysesthesia and urinary tract infections were generally mild to moderate, the majority resolved during treatment, and most participants continued taking retatrutide

In markets, Lilly shares rose about 1% in premarket trading in New York, while shares of the Wegovy competitor, Novo Nordisk, traded in Copenhagen, fell slightly.

Latest in the GLP-1 space:

• HIMS Shares Plunge As Pivot To Branded GLP-1s Weighs On Outlook

The key question is whether bariatric surgery begins to lose favor among patients as next-generation obesity medications replicate, or come close to replicating, surgery-level weight loss without an invasive procedure.

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/21/2026 - 09:40

Ryan Lochte's estranged wife Kayla Rae Reid has some concerns about him taking an assistant coaching job for the Missouri State swim program, according to TMZ.

During "Jimmy Kimmel Live," the comedian discussed how the "trolls" like the X owner have had to "come up with random stuff to complain about to distract us."

During "Jimmy Kimmel Live," the comedian discussed how the "trolls" like the X owner have had to "come up with random stuff to complain about to distract us."

Spears entered rehab after the arrest and pleaded guilty in court.

Spears entered rehab after the arrest and pleaded guilty in court.

The comedian noted on Amy Poehler's "Good Hang" podcast Wednesday that there wasn't "any" plus-size representation during her time on the NBC show.

The comedian noted on Amy Poehler's "Good Hang" podcast Wednesday that there wasn't "any" plus-size representation during her time on the NBC show.

China warned that it is firmly opposed to US engagements with the self-governing island of Taiwan after President Trump floated the possibility of speaking with its leader.

Get 3 for $10 for a limited time!

The Water Economics Of Data Centers Vs. Almond Farms & Golf Courses

A recent Gallup poll shows that nearly 70% of Americans oppose the construction of a data center in their communities, highlighting the rise of local resistance movements against hyperscaler buildouts. This resistance is driven by concerns over skyrocketing power bills, the destruction of farmland as it is transformed into industrial-scale AI infrastructure, and fears that data centers will drain local resources, particularly water.

It's no surprise that data center resistance is only gaining steam and will likely accelerate from here, as tech bros on the All-In podcast recently sounded the alarm. This resistance is emerging not just as power bills explode and water scarcity fears mount, but also as corporate America unleashes the "white-collar purge," with human labor swapped for GPUs. Meta was the latest to announce rising AI adoption alongside a new round of layoffs.

Water has become a flashpoint in data center debates, as some of these facilities can use 5 million gallons of water every day, as much as 16,000-plus average U.S. households, according to Environmental Protection Agency estimates.

There is also the extraordinary amount of power required to run the chip stacks, which consumes millions of additional gallons of water - more than the water used for cooling.

Hyperscalers are set to deploy $700 billion in capex this year to build out data centers and key AI infrastructure products, suggesting that local resistance nationwide will only continue to build as tech bros search for alternative options (low-Earth orbit and or residential backyards). Permitting denials and other issues may delay or block nearly half of data center projects this year.

However, on the subject of water, critics of data centers often fail to point out - especially in California - that agriculture also consumes a tremendous amount of water.

X user Smirkley compared the economics of a 5-gallon water-cooler jug, arguing that 5 gallons of water generates about $132 in economic output in data centers, but only about 2 cents in almonds.

Yet where is the outrage here?

Here is Smirkley's math:

• Data centers: $529.1 billion ÷ 20 billion gallons × 5 = $132.28 per 5 gallons
• California almonds: $5.66 billion ÷ 1.59 trillion gallons × 5 = 1.78 cents per 5 gallons

Smirkley's point is that AI infrastructure produces far more economic output per gallon than almonds.

Fine. Let me make it simple.

Almonds grown in the US use 80x more water than every American data center combined. This is the difference between an 8oz glass vs. a 5-gallon jug. pic.twitter.com/6NvR46klqJ

— Smirkley (@Smirkley) May 19, 2026

"Anti-data-center luddites may be worse than anti-nuclear activists. It is the same emotional panic, but even dumber somehow," the X user noted, adding, "Almonds grown in the U.S. use 80x more water than every American data center combined. This is the difference between an 8 oz. glass and a 5-gallon jug."

Honestly, fuck almonds pic.twitter.com/6PWXPKD8A7

— @jason (@Jason) May 14, 2026

"Data centers aren't stealing your water. Even if the total water draw of data centers triples by 2030, they'd require just 8% of the water consumed by American golf courses.@dodgeblake interviewed @AndyMasley, the man who's been debunking AI water doomerism," outlet Pirate Wires wrote on X. 

Data centers aren’t stealing your water.

Even if the total water draw of data centers triples by 2030, they’d require just 8% of the water consumed by American golf courses.@dodgeblake interviewed @AndyMasley, the man who’s been debunking AI water doomerism. Full story 👇 https://t.co/2paxx8rHeO pic.twitter.com/gDpDiwDOca

— Pirate Wires (@PirateWires) May 20, 2026

Where is the outrage for almonds and golf courses?

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/21/2026 - 09:15

Nothing worse than a backseat pile-driver.

Walmart Tumbles On Disappointing Guidance; Warns Low-Income Consumers Drowning, High Fuel Costs Will Hit Profit

Extending concerns about US consumer weakness - now that the bumper OBBBA tax refund period is over - after yesterday's earnings by Home Depot and Target, this morning Walmart reported Q1 earnings (the last big company to report, rounding out earnings season) and warned that fuel costs are squeezing the company’s bottom line and could lead to higher prices for shoppers. 

In the latest quarter, the world’s largest retailer said comparable sales in US stores rose 4.1%, excluding fuel, in the latest quarter, slightly better than the 4.0% Wall Street analysts were expecting. That was the good news; the bad news is that this was the slowest growth in comp store sales since 2024; Walmart also forecast adjusted profit for the second quarter that missed analysts’ expectations. That, together with several warnings on the state of the low-income consumer and that prices will rise unless input costs drop slammed shares.

The results show that the company continues to gain market share across income levels with its focus on low prices, fast delivery and wide assortment. But the emphasis on affordability is facing pressure as inflation accelerates and the conflict in Iran drives up fuel prices. Here is a snapshot of what WMT just reported, starting with the highlights:

• Revenue $177.75 billion, +7.3% y/y, beating estimates of $175.06 billion
  • Walmart-only US stores comparable sales ex-gas +4.1%, estimate +4%
  • Sam’s Club US comparable sales ex-gas +3.9%, estimate +3.59%
• Adjusted EPS 66c vs. 61c y/y, in line with exp. 66c
• Gross margin 24.3%, in line with exp. 24.3%

Walmart's comparable sales rose 4.1% from a year ago, just ahead of expectations, as the number of transactions was up 3% and the value of the average transaction increased 1.1%. That was down from a 4.6% rise in the previous quarter, and was the slowest year-over-year growth since the first quarter of 2024. Furthermore, with transactions at Walmart US rising 3%, and average ticket prices up only 1.1%, means that WMT is eating much of the input costs and making up for its with traffic. That however, will change very soon as the company revealed in its earnings call. 

Going down the line:

• Change in US E-Commerce sales +26%, estimate +18.6%
• Operating cash flow $4.74 billion, -12% y/y
• Adjusted operating income $7.67 billion, estimate $7.69 billion

US e-commerce sales grew 26% during the quarter, fueling growth in the company’s biggest market. Sales of grocery and general merchandise rose mid single-digits. General merchandise, which consists of apparel, electronics and other discretionary items, gained the most share in five years.

Walmart reported strong growth in grocery and general merchandise categories; partially offset by 100 bps headwind from maximum fair pricing legislation in pharmacy. Broad-based share gains across categories and income tiers led by upper-income households.

“The high-income consumer is spending with confidence in many categories, whereas the low-income consumer, we can tell, is more budget-conscious, trying to navigate certain financial distress,” Chief Financial Officer John David Rainey said in an interview with Bloomberg News. During the quarter, sales slowed somewhat in April after the Easter holiday. Higher tax refunds likely muted the impact of rising gas prices, though that’s abating, Rainey said. Prices rose 1.2% during the quarter and they could increase further if fuel prices stay where they are, he added, although that would surely lead to reduced traffic.

Translation: if it weren't for upper income consumers, who are forced to trade down to discounters such as Walmart, earnings would have been a disaster. 

And nowhere was this more obvious than in the company's guidance, because while Q1 earnings were solid, the reason the stock is selling off sharply in premarket trading is the company's disappointing forecast:

Second quarter forecast: 

• Sees adjusted EPS 72c to 74c, both below the median estimate of 75c 
• Sees net sales at constant currencies +4% to +5%
• Sees operating income at constant currencies up 7% to 10%

2027 full-year forecast

• Still sees adjusted EPS $2.75 to $2.85, below the median estimate $2.92
• Still sees net sales at constant currencies +3.5% to +4.5%

Walmart, which is viewed as an economic barometer due to its large size and footprint across the US and other markets, was the latest confirmation that the "lower half" of the K-shaped economy continues to sink, and it is only the upper half (that is increasingly shopping at WalMart) which is keeping the retailer afloat. 

While spending has largely held up in recent years, consumers have become increasingly selective with their purchases. Good deals and unique products can still attract buyers.

But the biggest wildcard is that the higher tax refunds this year have given families some extra cash, but this benefit is now fading fast as we explained a month ago. While most prices of general goods haven’t risen as operators move existing inventory, this could change as the war drags on.

There' more: fuel weighed on Walmart’s profit margin in the quarter, as the company absorbed “virtually the entirety” of the increases during the period, Rainey said. The company is prioritizing keeping prices low, with the number of discounts rising 20% from a year ago. That said, Reiney warned of potential higher retail price inflation in Q2 and H2 if the current elevated cost environment persists.

"It’s tough on very short notice to be able to navigate a cost headwind like that,” he said. While Walmart will be able to manage through it, he expects to see an equal or larger challenge related to fuel in the current quarter.

Rainey said that the number of gas gallons customers bought at Walmart stations fell below 10 for first time since 2022; he added that the decline in gas buying is sign of financial stress.

Walmart has consistently posted stronger results than many competitors, raising investors’ expectations and pushing the company's forward PE to an insane 45x, a multiple that will soon get a painful reminder of what happens to multiples during consumer recessions.

Walmart’s cautious narrative echoes commentary from big-box peers Target Corp. and Home Depot which both signaled this week that consumers are staying resilient although purchases are slowing. Kraft Heinz, McDonald’s and other companies have also struck a cautious tone recently. The past year has been a roller coaster for consumer-facing companies, first with President Trump’s expansive, on-off tariffs, that in some cases roiled operations, and now with the ongoing geopolitical conflicts threatening to dampen demand.

The Bentonville, Arkansas-based retailer has said it seeks to gain market share during challenging economic times by focusing on value and essentials like groceries. Delivery and other online services have expanded Walmart’s base of clients to include wealthier shoppers. Advertising and other businesses are also contributing to profit growth and giving the company more room to further invest in lowering prices and improving store operations.

In particular, fast deliveries have been a growth engine, and the company’s efforts to make inroads into the fashion market are gaining traction. Walmart has also expanded the selection of merchandise on its marketplace of third-party vendors.

The company’s shares tumbled more than 3% in premarket trading in New York. The stock has risen 17% so far this year as of Wednesday’s close. Shares of Walmart’s peers, including Target and Kroger Co., also fell in premarket trading on Thursday.

Full Q1 investor presentation below (pdf link)

q1 Fy27 Earnings Presentation by Zerohedge

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/21/2026 - 09:10

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon cautioned Mayor Zohran Mamdani about his hard-left vision for the Big Apple, warning the millennial mayor that he can relentlessly preach morality and ideology -- but if the city keeps struggling, he's failing to do his job.

The "Nashville" alum insisted to "Tamron Hall Show" viewers on Wednesday that she does "want to call people out" -- and explained why she hasn't.

The "Nashville" alum insisted to "Tamron Hall Show" viewers on Wednesday that she does "want to call people out" -- and explained why she hasn't.

FBI Charges Assistant US Attorney For Stealing Smith Report Docs In Trump 'Witch Hunt' Case

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

Former Justice Department prosecutor Carmen Mercedes Lineberger has been indicted for allegedly removing confidential Justice Department material and then concealing her efforts. Lineberger is accused of secretly transferring Jack Smith’s final report and hiding the material under files labeled “chocolate cake recipe” and “bundt cake recipe.” There has not been a greater recipe for disaster since aides tried to fit all of Biden’s candles on a cake. The case is particularly interesting because there was another person who was accused of a secret removal of Justice Department material who was not prosecuted: former FBI Director James Comey.

Linebarger, 62, of Port St. Lucie, Florida, has been indicted on four criminal charges: one felony count of obstruction of justice, one felony count of concealing government records and two misdemeanor counts of theft of government property valued at less than $1,000.

According to the indictment, Lineberger altered electronic file names of government records to conceal unauthorized transmissions of the documents to her personal email accounts and used file names for cake recipes to conceal her possession of the confidential information.

U.S. District Judge Aileen Cannon blocked the public release of the report after the prosecution collapsed against the President.

The Justice Department alleges that Lineberger received a copy of Smith’s report before the court sealed it. Months later, she allegedly decided to transfer it to her personal email account in violation of the court order and Justice Department rules.

She has now pleaded not guilty and faces up to 20 years on the obstruction charge and other charges.

The decision is notable for a couple of reasons.

First, Smith made one last move in dismissing the case against Trump that left the door open to resuming his prosecution. Smith moved to dismiss the indictment “without prejudice” and then stressed to the court that the Department has previously “noted the possibility that a court might equitably toll the statute of limitations to permit proceeding against the President once out of office.” In other words, Trump could be prosecuted after he leaves office.

It is not known what the motive might have been in this transfer. One possibility would be a type of souvenir or trophy grab, which would be ironic given Smith’s suggestion that Trump may have transferred classified material for that type of possessory thrill. Another is the possible use for a book. Finally, there might have been a desire to preserve evidence to avoid destruction during the Trump years or possible release to the media.

The second notable aspect is that Comey was accused of such a knowing removal, but he was never actually prosecuted.

There was no court order governing the material removed by Comey after his firing, but it was clearly departmental material.

The Inspector General, Michael Horowitz, found that Comey was a leaker and had violated FBI policy in his handling of FBI memos. He found that Comey grabbed the material on his way out of the Bureau, including those containing the “code name and true identity” of a sensitive source.

While he did not find a disclosure of the classified information, Horowitz found that Comey took “the unauthorized disclosure of sensitive investigative information, obtained during the course of FBI employment, to achieve a personally desired outcome.” He further added that Comey “set a dangerous example for the over 35,000 current FBI employees—and the many thousands of more former FBI employees—who similarly have access to or knowledge of non-public information.”

Comey later admitted that he asked his friend, Columbia Law Professor Daniel Richman, to leak information from the documents to the New York Times.

While Comey is facing a weak criminal case over threats conveyed through beach shells, some of us saw his conduct in removing this material as a more serious breach.

Comey went on to write books on “ethical leadership” and recently sent a message to current FBI personnel that they should “hang on” and wait out Trump: “In two and a half years, and then we can rebuild.”

Rebuilding the bureau in Comey’s image is a truly chilling notion. Those “good old days” with Comey allowed agents to launch a baseless Russian collusion investigation at the behest of the Clinton campaign and lie to a secret court to secure surveillance of Trump figures.

In the meantime, it will be Lineberger, not Comey, who will face a jury for the removal of confidential material.

For Lineberger, these types of charges tend to be cut-and-dried for prosecutors if they can show that the material was restricted and that she took steps to conceal the alleged theft. While she gained access before the court order, she allegedly transferred the material after the order and then hid the material in files labeled as cake recipes.  If those facts can be established in court, prosecutors likely believe that she can stick a fork in herself because she is done.

Jonathan Turley is a law professor and the best-selling author of “Rage and the Republic: The Unfinished Story of the American Revolution.”

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/21/2026 - 09:00

It's not traditional horror, but David J. Rosen and David Gordon Green's Apple TV show brilliantly builds nail-biting paranoia.

Casey Mize will help lead the host Tigers past the Guardians on Thursday afternoon, Stitches predicts.

Renter Nation Returns? Multi-Family Unit Starts & Permits Soar In April

On the back of a small uptick in homebuilder confidence (though still languishing)...

...Building Permits jumped notably (+5.8% MoM vs +2.5% exp) in preliminary April data (while Housing Starts dipped 2.8% MoM, though less than the 5.2% MoM decline expected)...

The pace of starts and permits on a SAAR basis has remained flat for four years...

Multi-family unit starts and permits soared in April...

As single-family home starts stagnate...

It appears builders believe that 'Renter Nation' is on its way back.

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/21/2026 - 08:50