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Will Black Voters Rescue The GOP In 2026?

Zero Rss
3 months 1 week ago
Will Black Voters Rescue The GOP In 2026?

The Republican Party is bracing for a brutal midterm election this year. Polls show Democrats ahead in the generic congressional ballot, and prediction markets give them solid odds of taking the House and a modest chance of flipping the Senate. But despite polls and prediction markets, there are signs that the GOP could defy history.

And it comes down to black voters.

Could black voters actually be the secret weapon that keeps Republicans in power after the 2026 midterms? The numbers, at least according to CNN's Harry Enten, suggest the question is worth asking seriously.

Enten laid out a striking case, walking through data that shows Donald Trump and the GOP making inroads with African American voters that the Republican Party simply hasn't seen in decades. 

While there’s no doubt that Democrats still have a solid advantage among black voters, that advantage is shrinking, and in tight races, even modest shifts can flip outcomes.

Trump's approval rating among black voters sat at 12% during his first term. It's now at 16%. It’s a modest shift that could be consequential, Enten argues, in states like Georgia, where margins are razor-thin, and every percentage point is a battleground. "Republicans absolutely love the shift that's going on," Enten said, "because Democrats have had such a long-term advantage." He argued that Trump "actually gaining ground versus where he was in term number one... has major implications for elections down the line."

The party identification numbers are another good sign for the GOP in November. Democrats have a 51-point advantage with African-American voters, which may sound good, but it’s actually a devastating number when you consider that during Trump's first term, Democrats held a 63-point advantage. 

The Democratic advantage has shrunk by 12 points. 

"This to me was absolutely stunning," Enten said, noting that the Democratic lead among black voters is now "actually smaller than any lead from 2006 to 2021" - a stretch of time that includes Barack Obama's two presidential runs.

What makes this more than just a polling curiosity is that the gains appear to be sticking. Democrats got shellacked with black voters in 2024. Trump turned in what Enten called a "historically strong performance" with that group, and Democrats had their worst showing in a generation. The natural assumption would be that some of that was a one-cycle anomaly, and that current economic concerns and opposition to the war in Iran would erase the gains Trump made. 

But the data says otherwise. 

Pre-election polling ahead of 2024 showed Kamala Harris leading among Black voters by 63 points. That number now sits at 62 points. "Republicans are holding onto the gains that they made among African Americans in 2024," Enten observed.

Whether these gains will stick after Trump leaves office remains to be seen, but as far as the 2026 midterm elections go, it’s clear there’s no Democratic bounce-back. The voters who drifted toward Trump or away from the Democratic Party haven't come back. This is a huge problem for the Democratic Party coalition, which has relied heavily on the loyalty of black voters.

 "The Donald Trump-led Republican Party is making gains among African Americans that we simply put have not seen the Republican Party make in a generation." 

Trump's GOP is holding on to the generational gains they made with Black voters in the 2024 election.

The GOP has gained 12 pts on the Dems on party id with African Americans vs. Trump term 1 at this point.

Trump's approval with Black voters is higher than it was in term 1. pic.twitter.com/EKiEv561jk

— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) April 30, 2026

The implications of these numbers is huge for the 2026 midterms.

Southern states with competitive House and Senate races depend heavily on black voter turnout and margins. This means that if Democrats are hemorrhaging even a few percentage points of that support, the math gets ugly for them really

Tyler Durden Sun, 05/03/2026 - 11:05
Tyler Durden

Trump Announces "Project Freedom" To Help Ships Leave Hormuz Starting Monday

Zero Rss
3 months 1 week ago
Trump Announces "Project Freedom" To Help Ships Leave Hormuz Starting Monday

Update: (6:30pm ET):  It appears that Trump's Operation Freedom is just the latest jawboning nothingburger. As the WSJ explains, Project Freedom "is a process through which countries, insurance companies and shipping organizations can coordinate moving traffic through the Strait, according to a senior U.S. official. It doesn’t currently involve U.S. Navy warships escorting vessels through the strait, the official said." In other words, as we mused earlier, this is not the announcement of an escort mission just now, and is just filler for another post from Trump.

President Trump did not announce an escort mission just now, US officials say.

Project Freedom, earlier called the Maritime Freedom Construct, is a coordination cell.

It’ll tell US-flagged ships and others the safe lanes to navigate the Strait of Hormuz (aka no mines, etc.)

— Alex Ward (@alexbward) May 3, 2026

As for Iran's reply, one could have seen this coming:

"Any American interference in the new maritime regime of the Strait of Hormuz will be considered a violation of the ceasefire. The Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf would not be managed by Trump's delusional posts"

⚠ WARNING

Any American interference in the new maritime regime of the Strait of Hormuz will be considered a violation of the ceasefire.

The Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf would not be managed by Trump's delusional posts!

No one would believe Blame Game scenarios!

— ابراهیم عزیزی (@Ebrahimazizi33) May 3, 2026

Finally, here is a statement from US Central Command which says... nothing:

U.S. Military Supports Launch of Project Freedom in Strait of Hormuz

U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) forces will begin supporting Project Freedom, May 4, to restore freedom of navigation for commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

The mission, directed by the President, will support merchant vessels seeking to freely transit through the essential international trade corridor. A quarter of the world’s oil trade at sea and significant volumes of fuel and fertilizer products are transported through the strait.

“Our support for this defensive mission is essential to regional security and the global economy as we also maintain the naval blockade,” said Adm. Brad Cooper, CENTCOM commander.

Last week, the U.S. Department of State announced a new initiative, in partnership with the Department of War, to enhance coordination and information sharing among international partners in support of maritime security in the strait. The Maritime Freedom Construct aims to combine diplomatic action with military coordination, which will be critical during Project Freedom.

U.S. military support to Project Freedom will include guided-missile destroyers, over 100 land and sea-based aircraft, multi-domain unmanned platforms, and 15,000 service members.

* * * 

Update: (5:00pm ET): In response to the earlier notice from Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) which said that "Trump must choose between an impossible military operation or a bad deal with the Islamic Republic of Iran," the US president has decided to take a third path: in a post on Truth Social Trump said the US will begin guiding some ships that aren’t involved in the Iran conflict out through the Strait of Hormuz starting Monday.

“The Ship movement is merely meant to free up people, companies, and Countries that have done absolutely nothing wrong — They are victims of circumstance,” Trump, or rather his AI chatbot, wrote Sunday, although it was unclear just how the US will avoid the dozens of mines that line the Strait or evade the missiles that Iran has threatened it would shoot at US ships if they came too close to the Strait. 

Trump called this extraction "Project Freedom", and said it will begin Monday morning, Middle East time. The US president also said that he is "fully aware that my Representatives are having very positive discussions with the Country of Iran, and that these discussions could lead to something very positive for all."

 

"This is a Humanitarian gesture on behalf of the United States, Middle Eastern Countries but, in particular, the Country of Iran. Many of these Ships are running low on food, and everything else necessary for largescale crews to stay on board in a healthy and sanitary manner. I think it would go a long way in showing Goodwill on behalf of all of those who have been fighting so strenuously over the last number of months. If, in any way, this Humanitarian process is interfered with, that interference will, unfortunately, have to be dealt with forcefully. Thank you for your attention to this matter!"

And while Trump claims the move is "humanitarian," it is a clear U.S. challenge to Tehran's effort to control the strait, and as Axios notes, an Iranian military response could spark a confrontation or even an escalation back to war.

Furthermore, it was not immediately clear whether this move was coordinated with Iran in any way, although without any signaling from official and unofficial channels from Iran, it is most likely a unilateral approach by the White House. 

Earlier, Trump suggested the Islamic Republic’s latest peace proposal might not be enough to satisfy him as efforts to put an end to the conflict have yet to show progress.

To that end, Trump wrote his representatives "are having very positive discussions" with Iran and stressed these discussions "could lead to something very positive for all." Axios adds that the US sent on Sunday another amended draft for an agreement to end the war in response to Iranian officials' latest proposal, so at least there is some token movement on behind the scenes negotiations. 

Aside from a very strong sense of deja vu about all this (Trump said the US would help escort ships more than a month ago and nothing happened). as Jim Bianco notes there are a four of possible outcomes from "Project Freedom", two good, two bad:

  1. US escorts ships out, Iran does nothing, war is over
  2. US escorts ships out, Iran fires on ships that the US can repel, war is over
  3. US escorts ships out, Iran fires on ships and hits them, or they hit a mine. The image of burning ships is a disaster for the Navy and the US, especially if it's a US warship.
  4. The US keeps threatening to do this, but the Navy never actually does it (akin to them not firing on the 40 or so fast boats in the Strait today when Trump said they would a several days ago). The US can be criticized for talking a big game with little action.

Outcomes 1 and 2 would send stocks higher; 3 and 4 would lead to the opposite, although in the current reality where nothing matters, there is a possibility that all 4 outcomes sends stocks to even recorder highs. 

* * * 

Earlier

Iran is telling Washington that the ball is in its court as President Trump has affirmed over the weekend that he is reviewing the latest peace deal submitted via Pakistani mediators. Tehran is further saying the US is going from worse to worse as it must now choose between an "impossible" military operation or a "bad" deal.

The intelligence unit of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has newly stated that "Trump must choose between an impossible military operation or a bad deal with the Islamic Republic of Iran," according to Al Jazeera referencing the official statement. The provocative words framing the dilemma came soon on the heels of the following Saturday Truth Social post from Trump:

As for the IRGC statement about an "impossible" miliary operation, it further indicated that Tehran sent the US military a deadline to end its blockade of Iranian ports. It highlighted that Europe, China and Russia are are increasingly taking a more critical toward Washington's war.

"The room for US decision-making has narrowed," the IRGC intelligence unit sad additionally, emphasizing "there is only one way to read this."

At the moment, the two-week ceasefire which was announced on April 8 through Pakistani mediation has been unilaterally extended by Trump, to now be indefinite. On Friday as the conflict reached 60-days, President Trump submitted a formal letter to Congress stressing Operation Epic Fury had already been 'terminated' due to the ceasefire. 

The White House is arguing that this loophole - or the fact that there's currently no exchanges of fire between the US and Iranian sides - means that required Congressional review and authorization of use of American troops is essentially voided. In the meantime gas prices at the pump for Americans are steadily rising. The below is the full IRGC statement to the US side:

IRGC Intelligence Organization:

🔺 Iran sets Pentagon a blockade deadline

🔺 China, Russia, Europe shift tone against Washington Trump's passive letter to Congress

🔺 Acceptance of Iran's negotiating terms pic.twitter.com/e5wIH4ZbHv

— Press TV 🔻 (@PressTV) May 3, 2026

The current Iran-submitted plan now being reviewed at the White House reportedly contains 14 points. A Russian correspondent has said that "Iran is seeking a decisive and permanent end to the conflict with the US, rather than a previously proposed two-month ceasefire" and that it seems a one-month window to end all hostilities.

"The plan includes a demand to resolve all issues and end the war within 30 days," said RT correspondent Saman Kojouri, adding that “"he space for compromise between Tehran and Washington is narrowing." Just by the close of last week Trump said he was 'not satisfied' with what he had seen so far.

Tyler Durden Sun, 05/03/2026 - 09:55
Tyler Durden

The Left's Reaction To Arrest Of The Latest UK Stabbing Is As Predictable As It Is Disgraceful

Zero Rss
3 months 1 week ago
The Left's Reaction To Arrest Of The Latest UK Stabbing Is As Predictable As It Is Disgraceful

Authored by Paul Birch via DailySceptic.org,

These people have never been in a life-or-death situation like the arresting officers

One would think that even when the police successfully detain a suspect who was alleged to have been conducting a marauding knife attack, the professional activists would have a day off.

But you would be wrong. Amid all the ‘Don’t Look Back in Anger’ cliché bingo, voices of criticism were heard. Among them, the blue-tick career race-baiter Shola Mos-Shogbamimu. She was quick to take to X following yesterday’s attack on the Jewish community in Golders Green, north London. The 45 year-old suspect, a British national of Somali origin, had reportedly stabbed two Jewish men at random. The suspect – depressingly, inevitably – had previously been referred to the Government’s counter radicalisation programme, Prevent.

Shola Mos-Shogbamimu criticised police officers who are shown kicking the suspect in the head while he is on the ground. She opined:

Contemptible abuse of police power. Why kick him in the head several times when he’s already Tasered and in your control? Should he not be alive to be brought to justice in a court of law for stabbing two Jews??!! Disgusting.

Also, Green Party leader Zack Polanski, still playing at politics, was quick to condemn the actions of the arresting officers, using a retweet to maintain that:

Essentially his (Commissioner Mark Rowley’s) officers were reportedly and violently kicking a mentally ill man in the head when he was already incapacitated by taser.

What Shola, Zack and other commentators do not understand – because they have never been in a life-or-death situation – is that force is not judged by how it looks in a six-second clip. It is judged by necessity in the moment. These keyboard warriors have no idea what it’s like to face immediate and possibly lethal violence armed with often nothing more than some irritant spray and a stick. Your priority is to keep members of the public safe, followed by yourselves as much as possible.

These officers would have had no idea in such a fast moving situation whether the suspect was acting alone or as part of a cell. He needed to be neutralised as soon as possible in order to keep people safe. He wasn’t showing his hands; he was still holding a bloodied weapon that he had just used to attack Jewish members of the public; he had been moving rapidly towards them, and they would have had no idea if he was wearing an explosive vest (wearing a coat on a warm day is never a good sign).

Policing is not theatre. It is not performed for social media approval. It is messy, fast and often brutal. Because the people officers deal with are messy, fast and often brutal. A man armed with a knife who has already stabbed two people, who refuses repeated commands to disarm and who continues to pose a threat even after being tasered, is not “under control”. He is an active danger until the weapon is removed. That is the reality, no matter how uncomfortable it makes Left-leaning commentators feel.

The idea that officers should politely wait or somehow apply ‘gentler’ tactics while a suspect still has the capacity to kill is not just naïve in the extreme, it is dangerous. It puts officers’ lives at risk. It puts the public at risk. And it reveals a complete detachment from reality (I am reminded of the occasion when then Labour Party leader, Jeremy Corbyn, declared that Islamic State murderer Mohammed ‘Jihadi John’ Emwazi should have been arrested in war-torn Syria rather than killed.)

This is the gap at the heart of modern public debate on policing. One side deals in real-world consequences. The other deals in optics. The officers in Golders Green had seconds to act. Not minutes. Not the luxury of hindsight, slow-motion replays or viral commentary. Seconds. In those seconds they made unquestionably the right decision: remove the threat as quickly as possible, by whatever means necessary short of lethal force. And that point matters. Because the same voices now condemning ‘excessive force’ would be the first to demand answers if those officers had hesitated and others had been stabbed.

There is also an uncomfortable truth that many would rather avoid: this attack was not just violent, it was targeted. Two visibly Jewish men were attacked in broad daylight in a part of London with a large Jewish community. That context matters. It should matter. It’s part of an ever growing pattern of antisemitic attacks carried out by people holding extreme Islamist ideologies.

Yet instead of sustained outrage about antisemitic violence, the conversation was almost immediately derailed, redirected toward the conduct of the officers who stopped it. That inversion of priorities is telling.

It reflects a culture where the instinct is no longer to back those who confront violence but to scrutinise them first, and often most harshly. Where the benefit of the doubt is extended to offenders, those enforcing the law are expected to meet an impossible standard of perfection under extreme pressure – often from their own senior management.

And it is precisely this culture that erodes effective policing. If every split-second decision is second guessed by people with no operational understanding, officers will become more hesitant. More risk-averse. Less pro-active. That is not compassion. It is a recipe for more victims.

None of this means police should be beyond scrutiny. Of course they shouldn’t be. But scrutiny requires context. It requires full evidence. It requires intellectual honesty. A selectively edited clip on social media is not scrutiny. It is propaganda. That is the real issue here.

Not just one commentator getting it wrong, but an entire ecosystem that rewards outrage over accuracy, speed over truth and narrative over fact. The Metropolitan Police, to their credit, did something increasingly necessary: they put out the full body-worn footage. They showed the public what actually happened. And when people saw the complete picture, the narrative collapsed. Because reality is stubborn like that.

In the end, strip away the noise and the incentives of social media and the situation becomes very simple. A violent attacker stabbed two innocent men. Two unarmed officers confronted him. They stopped him. They went home alive, and so did everyone else.

That is not a scandal. That is policing working exactly as it should.

Tyler Durden Sun, 05/03/2026 - 09:20
Tyler Durden

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