On Friday, ZeroHedge, in partnership with the Macro Dirt Podcast, hosted a debate focused on the implications for agriculture, inflation, and global supply chains given the current situation in Iran. The discussion was illuminating and worth a rewatch if you missed it.
The discussion featured former Bridgewater head of commodities Alex Campbell, Brent Johnson of Santiago Capital, and was hosted by Tony Greer and Jared Dillian.
The Damage Has Been DoneEven in a best case scenario where shipping lanes reopen immediately, Santiago Capital’s Brent Johnson says the damage is already embedded in the system.
“If everything opens tomorrow in the strait and goes back 100% to normal, there’s a five to six week open spot where ships are not arriving where they typically arrived.”
The warning came during last night’s ZH deep dive into a potential fertilizer and farming crisis, with possible Arab Spring-level disruptions in the Third World, but as Johnson said “the U.S. is not immune”.
Johnson joined Tony Greer and Jared Dillian of the Macro Dirt Podcast and former Bridgewater head of commodities Alex Campbell who now writes at campbellramble.ai. Here were the key moments for those short on time:
“Perfect Storm”The five to six week wartime-gap (assuming that’s all) is colliding directly with the agricultural calendar.
Johnson: “The planting season is largely already over. And the fertilizers that would have normally been available were not. And those that were available were higher priced… You look at the number of bankruptcies that are being filed by farmers in the United States and it’s spiked.”
At the same time, weather risk is rising. “This is an El Niño year… and that throws all kinds of havoc with weather patterns.” The combination, he says, raises the probability of a delayed but meaningful shock.
“You could have a perfect storm six to nine months from now.”
Johnson points to prior episodes where similar conditions led to sharp price moves. “In 2007 and 2008, there was a food crisis… there was a supply disruption, a bad harvest, and policy decisions that diverted supply.” The result was significant inflation in staple commodities: “In 2007 and ‘08, rice spiked almost 200%. In 2010 and 11, wheat price went up 130%.”
“In all of these cases, you started to have social unrest” a la Arab Spring.
“When people are full and warm, they don’t typically protest. But when they’re cold and hungry, that’s when they start taking to the streets.”
— ZeroHedge Debates (@zerohedgeDebate) May 2, 2026 Arab Spring 2.0“When I was looking at prior food crisis… 2007, 2008, 2010, and 2011… they were bad, but one of the reasons I think they could be worse now… at the time, those emerging markets and those developing countries were a lot more agrarian-based because that’s what they could afford.”
According to Johnson, over the past two decades, that standard of living… and importantly the expectation of a standard of living. “As they have moved into the middle class in places like China and India… they’ve gotten accustomed to having meat once in a while.”
Meat = more resource intensive. “People don’t really consume corn, but it’s a big part of the food stock that goes into poultry or beef… to grow the animal protein that people have gotten accustomed to eating.”
In developing countries, this could mean a reversion to poverty they’d expected was over:
“Now, if I have to suddenly start going back to just eating rice and I’m no longer having meat… I’m going to be pissed off.”
— ZeroHedge Debates (@zerohedgeDebate) May 2, 2026To listen the full discussion where Brent, Tony, Jared, and Alex go deep into the weeds for how investors can hedge against this scenario, watch the full debate below or listen on Spotify.
Tyler Durden Sat, 05/02/2026 - 11:05Trump submits letter to Congress at 60-day mark: ceasefire 'terminated' hostilities & so doesn't need authorization, he argues.
US Treasury goes after Hormuz payment fees, sanctioning three Iranian foreign currency exchange houses. Bessent issues pressure points against Iranian 'rats'.
Trump on Friday rejects Iran's latest revised proposal to Pakistan mediators. Nuclear issue not included: a non-starter, and focus is on ending the war. Israeli officials balk.
Iran economically squeezed, signs of divided response among leadership, but surviving: "Weeks of conflict have aggravated Iran's dire economic problems, risking calamity after the war, but the Islamic Republic looks able to survive a standoff in the Gulf for now." (Rtrs)
Alternative routes emerge: "Iran cannot be besieged; We have different ways to export and import," Iranian official says.
* * *
Trump Letter: Doesn't Need Congressional Approval As Ceasefire Has 'Terminated' ConflictIn an acknowledgement that his anti-Iran Operation Epic Fury has indeed hit 60 days, President Trump has issued a formal letter to Congress which argues he does not need their authorization for war. He is arguing the current ceasefire has in effect 'terminated' the conflict. Below are his main points via NBC [emphasis by ZH]:
Trump claims it's unconstitutional to seek congressional authorization for war pic.twitter.com/W2rnTOXbDn
— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) May 1, 2026 Trump Rejects Latest Iran ProposalIn fresh Friday words to reporters, President Trump says he is not satisfied with the latest proposal from Iran. He further stated that these negotiations "are not getting there right now." His main points via Newsquawk:
US Treasury Secretary Bessent takes to X on Friday to again call Iranian leaders "rats" - which won't bode well for restarting stalled negotiations. He's busy boasting on the economic damage unleashed by the ongoing US naval blockade, writing: "It is very difficult for rats in a sewer pipe to know what's going on in the outside world. Some color for the Iranian Leadership as they literally sit in the dark." He then lists out the following:
1. The United States has complete control of the Strait of Hormuz.
2. There is a hard currency, i.e. U.S. dollar, shortage.
3. Food and gasoline rationing are in place.
4. The entire international community has turned against you.
5. The BLOCKADE will continue, until there is pre-February 27 Freedom of Navigation.
He also shared a WSJ article proclaiming that the Iranians have 'failed' to roll back the US military blockade, and that supposedly the clock is ticking on the government's ability to rule...
It is very difficult for rats in a sewer pipe to know what’s going on in the outside world. Some color for the Iranian Leadership as they literally sit in the dark:
1. The United States has complete control of the Strait of Hormuz.
2. There is a hard currency, i.e. U.S. dollar,… https://t.co/oNHVEvdNE4
The Netanyahu government is signaling that it will restart the bombing campaign if the nuclear issue is not resolved. It should also not be forgotten that 'denuclearizing' Iran by force has been a multi-decade priority of Prime Minister Netanyahu and the hardliners of Israel. These are the latest warnings out of the Israeli military establishment on Friday:
An Israeli military official says that if Iran's stockpile of more than 400 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60% is not removed from the Islamic Republic, the entire latest war will be considered “one big failure.”
Israeli officials have said that this stockpile is sufficient for 11 nuclear bombs.
And the Times of Israel underscores further, "The senior officer says that if, as part of negotiations between the United States and Iran, no agreement is reached to remove the uranium stockpile and halt enrichment in the country, the achievements in the 40 days of fighting will have been for nothing." So this means that "If the nuclear objective is not achieved, then everything we did in Iran will be one big failure. The evil Iranian regime can pounce on the nuclear program," the official emphasized. And then the threat...
The officer adds that "if the uranium is removed from Iran through diplomatic means, we have done our part." However, if that does not happen, Israel would need to launch another operation in Iran to achieve the objective, they say.
Already Israel has demonstrated its immense influence over the decision to go to war in the first place.
US Treasury Hits Back Against Hormuz TollsThe OFAC notice on Hormuz payment sanctions: Today, the U.S. Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) is designating three Iranian foreign currency exchange houses and their associated front companies as part of Economic Fury and Treasury’s ongoing efforts to disrupt the Iranian regime’s financial lifelines that sustain its war effort. Collectively, Iranian exchange houses facilitate billions of dollars in foreign currency transactions each year. Because Iran primarily settles its oil sales in Chinese yuan, these exchange houses play a critical role in converting oil revenues into currencies that are more readily useable by the Iranian military and its partners and proxies.
"Iran is the head of the snake for global terrorism, and under President Trump’s leadership, Treasury is moving aggressively, through Economic Fury, to sever the Iranian military’s financial lifelines," said Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent. "We will relentlessly target the regime’s ability to generate, move, and repatriate funds, and pursue anyone enabling Tehran’s attempts to evade sanctions."
War Powers: 60 DaysThere's common agreement that today: Friday, May 1st, constitutes the 60-day mark on Operation Epic Fury. But President Trump and his administration are trying to sidestep the 1973 law which requires a president to withdraw troops within 60 days of notifying Congress of their deployment unless lawmakers formally authorize the military action as a declaration of war. Of course, thus far there's been no Congressional authorization, amid some six failed attempts to push through War Powers resolutions.
The administration is now arguing that the extended ceasefire itself, reached three weeks ago and then recently unilaterally extended by Trump, buys more time and allows the White House to avoid Congressional approval. Admin officials argue the absence in exchanges of fire between Iranian and US forces means the 60-day timeline doesn't apply.
"For War Powers Resolution purposes, the hostilities that began on Saturday, February 28, have terminated," a Trump official has been cited broadly in US media as saying. The same perspective had first been put forward by Pentagon chief Pete Hegseth during his hearing before the House Armed Services Committee on Thursday:
Answering questions from senators on Thursday, Hegseth said: "We are in a ceasefire right now, which our understanding means the 60-day clock pauses or stops in a ceasefire."
The questioner, Democratic Senator Tim Kaine, responded: "I do not believe the statute would support that. I think the 60 days runs maybe tomorrow, and it's going to pose a really important legal question for the administration there."
The debate over mainstream airwaves is also about to grow fiercer as the war slides with no clear articulated grand US strategy...
Wow Scott Jennings blows up at Adam Mockler: “Get your fucking hand out of my face”
Mockler: We all know that Scott Jennings is more than happy to defend a war with a country that starts with letters Ira that we are currently failing that is going to put us trillions and… pic.twitter.com/NjYu6Ij5z1
Iran has reportedly submitted its latest revised proposal to Pakistan mediators as of Thursday night. It is a response to the latest US amendments to end the war, per Axios. So the conflict is two-months deep, talks are completely stalled, global energy transit through the Hormuz Strait is at a bare trickle to non-existent as the US naval blockade is enforced and while international vessels are still under looming threat of attack by Iran, and there's still no sign of an offramp coming anytime soon.
To review, and as we wrote previously, next fall's midterms staring Congressional Republicans in the face, there this increasingly uncomfortable trend: "The average price of one gallon (3.8 litres) of gasoline in the United States has reached $4.30, according to the American Automobile Association (AAA), up from less than $3 before the February 28 start of the US-Israel war on Iran." President Trump's response to this in fielding questions in the Oval Office on Thursday was to tell reporters that gas prices would "drop like a rock" as soon as the Iran war ended. He said: "The [price of] gasoline and the oil will go down rapidly once the war’s over," and at one point emphasized prices would go down "like a rock."
Important development via Al Jazeera confirming that nuclear issue is a non-starter for Iran:
Proposals resurface: Tehran presented a new proposal to the Pakistani mediator yesterday, a diplomatic source told me. He added that nuclear negotiations will not succeed under these circumstances and that the focus will likely shift to ending the war.
Fresh activity on X:
Iran Squeezed But SurvivingWe've been reporting on the collapsing Iranian rial and US officials' hopes that the engineered crisis and economic warfare would force Iranians into the streets to overthrow their own government - which is a plan that already failed to produce enough momentum previously, and even under heavy US-Israeli bombs.
Reuters on Friday describes, "Weeks of conflict have aggravated Iran's dire economic problems, risking calamity after the war, but the Islamic Republic looks able to survive a standoff in the Gulf for now, despite a U.S. blockade that has cut off energy exports." It's an enduring stalemate, with the Iran war and Hormuz closure now being a game of geopolitical chicken, where each side believes it can inflict more pain on the other while being the one to outlast.
There's been talk of Pakistan having opened up its border, as well as increased use of Caspian trade routes - especially for vital goods like food, medicines, and factory or other parts. But WSJ freshly explains that "Alternative trade routes won’t be sufficient. Iran has been working to send some of its oil by rail to China and to import foodstuff by road from the Caucasus and Pakistan. Only 40% of Iran’s trade can be redirected away from blockaded ports, the Iranian Shipping Association said Thursday via the Fars news agency, which is affiliated with Iran’s security services."
The U.S. Air Force logistics bridge into the Middle East continues at a steady pace with at least 11 C-17A "Globemaster IIIs" active this morning. pic.twitter.com/x0ffxvqHpT
— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) May 1, 2026The report then speculates on what's going on internally in Iran's government and leadership, and calculations on how much economic pain Iranian society can take as renewed fighting looms, also as Israel is said to be preparing for more rounds of attack:
The risk of a spiraling crisis has split Iran’s political system between moderates such as President Masoud Pezeshkian and hard-liners including Saeed Jalili, a former presidential candidate who leads Iran’s most conservative faction.
The moderates believe in holding fire and negotiating a favorable deal with President Trump, whom they view as eager to get out of the messy war as soon as possible. They worry Iranians are growing tired of the conflict after an initial nationalist uptick.
“The regime has to do something to break this deadlock,” Saeid Golkar, who studies Iran at the University of Tennessee at Chattanooga. “Moderates want a deal because they think more destruction is political suicide,” he said.
While some Iranian officials have touted the country has more of its air force left than what the Pentagon asserts, it remains that Tehran doesn't appear capable of inflicting serious damage on the significant US naval blockade, other than through asymmetric or drone warfare.
Caspian Sea alternative...
⭕️ Iran Focuses on Caspian Sea Transit Amid Hormuz Blockade
Iran’s Food Industry Associations Union says there is currently no food security crisis in the country, even as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed — with only four vessels passing through yesterday, according to a… pic.twitter.com/teYL8iuMGm
via Newsquawk