After a recent string of 'soft' survey data, this morning we get some 'hard' data and it was far stronger than expected.
Preliminary headline durable goods orders for March rose 0.8% MoM (better than the 0.5% MoM exp), and the first increase after a three month decline to start the year (which was the first 3-month decline since Nov 2019).
The increase took place despite continued weakness in aircraft orders manifesting as a 21.1% drop in nondefense aircraft and parts in March.
Meanwhile, core durable goods orders (prelim for March ) rose even more, up by 0.9% MoM (and stronger than the 0.4% expected.
That was 12 straight months of gains, pulling core orders up 7.62% YoY - the most since July 2022.
Bookings for non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft, a proxy for investment in equipment, surged by 3.3% MoM after an upward revised 1.6% increase a month earlier.
Finally, shipments figures (which plug into GDP) were also comfortably stronger than expected (+1.2% in March versus +0.6% forecast), which suggests upside risks to Q1 forecasts.
It remains to be seen, however, how the war impacted demand for capital goods.
Bond yields rose after the better-than-expected housing and capital goods data. The war is an ongoing risk that can belatedly sour hard economic data, but soft data is more up to date. On that front, we have yet to see the manufacturing ISM turn down. As Bloomberg's Simon White notes (in the chart below) the ISM leads durable goods new orders by about three months.
Meanwhile, as reported earlier, housing data for March also held up well, largely thanks to housing starts, driven by one-unit structures, even as multi-unit ones fall. Building permits, on the other hand, were ugly, but that is a very forward looking leading indicator, and was likely driven by the spike in rates.
The US economy is overall in remarkably good shape given the age of the cycle. That should keep yields supported. However, the longer energy prices remain elevated, that will become more in question.
Tyler Durden Wed, 04/29/2026 - 09:43Glass bottle and jar company O-I Glass plunged the most in premarket trading in more than six years after it slashed its full-year adjusted EPS outlook, blaming higher energy costs tied to the Gulf-related energy shock.
The major glass-container manufacturer, producing bottles and jars for the beer, wine, spirits, beverage, and food-packaging markets, now expects adjusted EPS of $1.00 to $1.50, down sharply from its prior forecast of $1.65 to $1.90 and well below the $1.67 Bloomberg Consensus estimate.
Slide 8 detailed O-I Glass' Full Year 2026 Outlook impacted by the energy shock in the Middle East:
The chart on the right is O-I Glass reassuring investors that it has hedged or mitigated a large portion of its European natural gas exposure. It says 75% to 80% of its 2026 year-to-go EU natural gas exposure is covered at rates better than current index prices, and more than 50% is already mitigated for 2027.
First-quarter results were also weak (courtesy of Bloomberg):
Adjusted EPS 5c vs. 40c y/y, estimate 11c
Net sales $1.54 billion, -1.7% y/y, estimate $1.47 billion
Americas net sales $871 million, -0.2% y/y, estimate $826.3 million
Europe net sales $655 million, -1.8% y/y
Americas oper. profit $142 million, +0.7% y/y
Europe operating profit $0 vs. $68 million y/y
From early February through Tuesday’s close, O-I Glass shares had already fallen roughly 40% as investors priced in the Gulf energy shock now working its way through the company’s cost structure. Shares are down another roughly 18% in premarket trading. If losses hold, it would mark the stock’s largest one-day drop since March 9, 2020.
O-I Glass' deteriorating outlook highlights how quickly the energy shock spread worldwide (read Goldman).
Tyler Durden Wed, 04/29/2026 - 09:35With mortgage rates still relatively low, despite a recent jump in interest rates, and a top-down push for affordability, Housing Starts for March soared while the more forward-looking Building Permits disappointed, unexpectedly plunged.
Housing starts soared 10.8% MoM in March (far more than the -0.4% expected drop) while Permits plunged 10.8% MoM (and worse than the -0.4% decline expected)...
This pushed the SAAR totals for Starts to 1.502 million, far above the 1.390 million expected, and the highest since Dec 2024, but Building Permits fell to their lowest since Aug 2025
Under the hood, Single-Family Starts jumped 9.7%, the most since Feb 2025, and Multi-Family Starts soared 9.6% MoM, while Permits did a mirror image, plunging 23.5% MoM (biggest drop since June 2023) and Single-Family permits plunged 3.8%
The lowest mortgage rate since Aug 2022 (aside for the modest Iran war jump) likely helped spark homebuilder appetite to start building, even if it did precisely the reverse with permits.
Overall, the report was a mixed bag overall, and tough to project given the impact of surging oil which translated into even higher yields on the mortgage rates for the foreseeable future.
Tyler Durden Wed, 04/29/2026 - 09:09Wingstop shares fell the most in six months in premarket trading after the company cut its full-year outlook and reported weaker-than-expected first-quarter sales, citing a pullback in traffic as management pointed to "continued pressure on consumer spending."
The chicken chain, with 2,653 locations across the US, now expects 2026 domestic same-store sales to decline at a low single-digit rate, down from its prior forecast of flat to low single-digit growth. Analysts tracked by Bloomberg forecast a .4% contraction this year, after lowering their forecast from about 1.3% in mid-February when Wingstop last reported earnings.
First-quarter domestic same-store sales fell 8.7%, exceeding the 5.4% decline expected by analysts. Adjusted EPS of $1.18 topped estimates, helped by lower-than-expected costs, including chicken wing costs.
Here's a snapshot of first-quarter results (courtesy of Bloomberg):
Total domestic stores comp sales growth -8.7%, estimate -5.43% (Bloomberg Consensus)
Adjusted EPS $1.18 vs. 99c y/y, estimate $1.03
Revenue $183.7 million, +7.4% y/y, estimate $188.4 million
Adjusted Ebitda $65.4 million, +9.9% y/y, estimate $63.4 million
Total location count 3,153, +3.2% q/q, estimate 3,154
Cost of sales $24.7 million, +8.2% y/y, estimate $26.1 millions
SG&A expense $34.4 million, +9.6% y/y, estimate $35.7 million
Net addition of stores 97, -23% y/y, estimate 90
Important to note: Wingstop's core customer base appears to skew younger, making it highly exposed to lower-income consumer pressures, such as the national average gasoline price topping $4 per gallon.
Wingstop bust-cycle...
We have highlighted what has happened in convenience stores and gas stations when gas topped the politically sensitive line of $4 last month.
Read:
Related:
Perhaps Wingstop needs to run promotions or offer 'BNPL' loans for their chicken orders to bring back younger customers.
Tyler Durden Wed, 04/29/2026 - 09:02Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
The average price for a gallon of gasoline hit its highest level in four years on Tuesday as the cost of a barrel of oil remains elevated amid the conflict with Iran, according to a prominent analyst.
Customers pump gas at a gas station in Miami on April 13, 2026. Joe Raedle/Getty ImagesThe national average price for a gallon of gas was $4.17, “the highest level since 2022,” and surpassed the $4.16 price reported earlier this month, said GasBuddy analyst Patrick de Haan in an X post on April 28.
“We’ll continue to head higher for now,” he added.
The American Automobile Association (AAA) also said the price for a gallon of regular gas reached just above $4.17, showing a 6-cent increase from Monday.
The price of gas and oil surged after the United States and Israel launched strikes on Iran on Feb. 28, prompting the country to respond by attacking ships in the Strait of Hormuz and launching its own strikes on neighboring countries in the Middle East.
Diesel was significantly higher on Tuesday, with AAA showing the price for a gallon at $5.46, an increase of 2 cents over Monday’s average.
According to an AAA report in March, the nationwide average price for a gallon of gas stood at around $2.98 on Feb. 26, two days before the U.S. military launched the strikes.
A federal Energy Information Administration (EIA) graph shows that gas prices reached $4.21 per gallon in April 2022, several weeks after Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022.
Prices may have been impacted by the United Arab Emirates’ announcement on Tuesday that the oil-rich country was quitting the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), dealing a blow to the oil producers’ group. The exit of the UAE weakens OPEC’s control over global oil supplies and will widen a rift between the UAE and neighboring Saudi Arabia.
UAE Energy Minister Suhail Mohamed al-Mazrouei told Reuters in a telephone interview that the decision was taken after examining the country’s energy strategies. He said the UAE had not discussed the issue with any other country.
“This is a policy decision, it has been done after a careful look at current and future policies related to level of production,” al-Mazrouei said.
OPEC Gulf producers have been struggling to ship exports through the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint between Iran and Oman through which roughly a fifth of the world’s crude oil and liquefied natural gas normally passes, due to Iranian threats and attacks on vessels. The Trump administration has pushed for Iran to reopen the strait while maintaining a U.S. naval blockade on Iran’s ports.
President Donald Trump on Tuesday provided an update on the U.S.–Iran conflict, writing in a Truth Social post that Iran informed the administration that it is in a “state of collapse” and wants to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. He did not provide other details.
Earlier on April 28, an Iranian military official told the semi-official IRNA news agency that Tehran considers itself still at war with the United States amid the blockade and ceasefire.
Trump and administration officials have said that gas prices will likely go down after the war ends. “I think they'll be much lower. Before midterms? Much lower,” he told Fox Business in mid-April.
Tyler Durden Wed, 04/29/2026 - 08:45