Authored by Julianne Geiger via OilPrice.com,
Henry Hub natural gas averaged $2.93 per million British thermal units from June through August, 6% below the same period last year, even with the Lower 48 posting its hottest July on record.
Average temperatures across the Lower 48 reached 77°F in July, according to NOAA, pushing electricity demand higher as air conditioners ran harder.
Solar and wind took a large share of that extra power demand.
Solar generation increased by an estimated 19.4 billion kilowatt-hours from June through August compared with the same period in 2025, according to the Energy Information Administration. Wind generation added another 9.3 BkWh.
Natural gas-fired generation increased by 7.5 BkWh.
The increase from wind and solar was nearly four times the increase from natural gas-fired generation during the summer.
Gas supply was also running ahead of last year. U.S. dry natural gas production averaged 2.7 billion cubic feet per day more from June through August, a 2% increase, with the Permian among the biggest sources of growth.
EIA expects dry gas production to average a record 111.2 Bcf/d for 2026.
[ZH: Quite a different picture for the Europeans...]
Storage entered the April injection season with 1.906 trillion cubic feet of working gas, 4% above the previous five-year average. Monthly injections beat their respective five-year averages in every month through August except May.
Maintenance at U.S. LNG terminals moderated demand growth from the export sector during the summer, leaving more gas available for power generation and storage.
EIA expects Lower 48 working gas inventories to reach 3.985 trillion cubic feet by the end of October, about 5% above the five-year average.
The hottest July on record increased gas-fired power generation without tightening the market enough to lift Henry Hub above last summer's average.
Record production, strong storage injections and nearly 29 BkWh of additional wind and solar generation kept the gas market well supplied through the peak cooling months.
Tyler Durden Mon, 09/28/2026 - 12:25The US-Iran conflict has pushed Brent crude toward $106 a barrel, while the 10-year Treasury yield has climbed to its highest level in nearly two decades. Traders are looking at whether elevated energy prices will make inflation sticky and prompt another Federal Reserve rate hike in late October.
This week's US economic releases could reinforce those new concerns. Stronger growth would give the Fed greater mobility to tighten policy, while inflation would strengthen the case for further rate hikes.
UBS' Simon Penn wrote in a note early Monday that traders were assigning a 68% probability to another hike next month. He said that markets are underestimating the potential for restraint ahead of the midterms.
Penn continued:
Fed Has Never Hiked In October Ahead Of A US Election
The market prices 17.4bp or a 69% chance the Fed will raise rates again at its Oct. 28 meeting. It is extremely unlikely the Fed will do so. Since 1990, the Fed has never raised rates when it's had a meeting in October, just ahead of an election in November. There are only three occasions (2004, 2018 and 2022) in the last 35 years when the Fed has hiked in September, when that was the meeting immediately preceding an election.
Central banks all like to say decision making is entirely independent of political activities. But it is also common that central banks refrain from policy actions in the final run-up to major political events.
Taking out the pricing for October doesn't mean December should reprice as a possible 50bp hike (market has an aggregate 38bp for December). Rather, it should just push out through the strip. December pricing should be closer to the full 25bp. From a trading perspective, the balance is likely to be shared out in the January and March meetings (12bp and 18bp vs prior meeting respectively), but looking at the market all told and the longer term trade should be to fade the back end and bring cumulative pricing back to 75bp over the next year from the current 91bp.
In detail:
To start the week, yields on US 10- and 30-year Treasuries jumped to their highest levels since 2007 and 2004, respectively.
UBS markets analyst Nana Antiedu cited US equity strategist Keith Parker in a note earlier today, saying that higher yields have already squeezed stock valuations substantially, creating the potential for a larger rebound if yields fall.
Antiedu continued:
US Equities: Position For Period Of Elevated Rates, Asymmetry To Lower Rates
Parker finds that the sharp rise in US Treasury yields has triggered a significant equity valuation reset, with the S&P 500's next-twelve-months P/E down 17% since November as the 10-year yield has climbed around 100bp year-to-date. Keith notes the derating is approaching recession-style levels and comparable to the 1994 hiking cycle.
History suggests equity performance from here will largely depend on the Fed. When rates stabilised without aggressive tightening (less than 100bp+ a year), the S&P 500 typically delivered double-digit returns over the following year. However, full hiking cycles (hiking by over 100bp within a year) have historically led to flat or negative returns. Keith finds that equities have greater asymmetry to a fall in yields than the downside from higher rates. Keith suggests positioning for a period of elevated rates, and asymmetry to lower rates. Comparing his Composite REVS scores to rates betas, top ranking subindustries Semis, Pharma, Refining and Div Banks remain attractive and appear less exposed to rates.
Goldman notes speratly that stocks tend to hit resistance once the 10-year Treasury moves by about 30 basis points in two weeks or 50 basis points in a month. It's up 28 since September 9 and 37 since August 21.
Read: 3 Bond Volatility Charts We are Watching
What's clear is that traders are caught between an energy shock and inflation woes that put the Fed on a longer runway for rate hikes. Bulls are betting that yields stabilize before borrowing costs undermine stocks, opening the door to a powerful relief rally if energy prices peak and resolutions to the conflicts in the Gulf and Ukraine come into focus. But if energy prices stay high and economic data keep the Fed tightening, more market trouble could be just ahead.
Tyler Durden Mon, 09/28/2026 - 12:05Summary:
British police released five men on bail Monday following their arrests on suspicion of terrorism and explosives offenses near RAF Fairford, according to Reuters. All five remain under investigation.
"To be very clear, this does not mean the investigation is over," Counter Terrorism Policing chief Laurence Taylor told reporters on Monday afternoon.
Taylor said, "They are subject to stringent conditions on their movement and contact with others. They absolutely remain under investigation as we explore multiple lines of inquiry."
"We are considering this from every possible angle," Taylor added, "including that this may be activity committed by proxies, or individuals either knowingly or unknowingly, working on behalf of a foreign state."
The decision to release all five suspects on bail is very questionable given the seriousness of the suspected terrorism and explosives offences and the investigation into possible foreign-state involvement.
Welcome to the UK's "justice" system:
Danny Tommo
> damaged a migrant invader boat
> DENIED BAIL
5 terror suspects
> bomb plot against US Air Force
> RELEASED ON BAIL pic.twitter.com/7gKem5m3xq
Five men were arrested near RAF Fairford early Sunday morning on suspicion of terrorism and explosives offenses.
Reuters reports that the men were all in their mid-twenties and were British nationals living in London.
"At this time, we are working to establish the full circumstances of the activity of those arrested, their knowledge and any motivation behind this incident," Counter Terrorism Police said in the statement.
"I am very aware of the levels of speculation about the motivation behind this incident, and the geopolitical questions that are being raised. However, I ask that at this time, Counter Terrorism Policing are given the space to work carefully and clearly."
RAF Fairford is a critical node for the US military's long-range bomber force, supporting deployments of B-52s, B-1B Lancers and B-2 stealth bombers. Its role in strikes on Iran makes a conflict-related motive worth considering.
UK authorities have not publicly established that connection, but the strategic airbase raises the possibility that the suspected activity was intended to disrupt US bomber operations beyond the Gulf area.
Trump Says Suspects "Looking to do Big Damage"Reuters reported that an Iranian-linked motive could very well be behind the incident that unfolded early Sunday morning, citing a source familiar with the investigation. Counterterrorism investigators are also examining the possibility of Russian sabotage or an Islamist plot.
President Trump told reporters earlier this afternoon that British and US authorities had been monitoring the suspects and alleged they intended to cause "big damage."
"We had them under investigation. They were looking to do big damage to our fort and working with the British worked out great ... We had them under view for a long time, and we got them," Trump said.
🚨 BREAKING: Donald Trump responds to the suspected bomb plot at RAF Fairford
"Working with Britain, it was an amazing job. We had them under investigation. They were looking to do big damage to our fort, and working with the British worked out great and we got them" pic.twitter.com/PlChiTQlSx
Police established a 400-meter perimeter while bomb-disposal personnel examined the three vans near RAF Fairford in western England. Notably, the airfield hosts strategic US bombers.
The bomb squad found large black barrels inside the vans.
RAF Fairford has become a critical node for US military operations against Iran. Tehran warned in July that airbases used to launch attacks would be considered legitimate targets.
Here's the latest from X user Politics UK:
British counterterrorism police declared a major incident near RAF Fairford, an airbase used by the US Air Force, after several men were arrested on suspicion of explosives offenses. RAF Fairford was reportedly placed on "Delta," the highest threat level, according to the national news agency Press Association, now known as PA Media.
🚨 RAF FAIRFORD ALERT DEEPENS — COUNTER-TERROR POLICE, EXPLOSIVES ARRESTS, EVACUATIONS AND HEIGHTENED BASE SECURITY
The security operation near RAF Fairford has moved into a more serious phase.
Several men are under arrest on suspicion of offences under the Explosives Act.…
PA Media reports that military bomb disposal specialists were examining vehicles in Whelford, Gloucestershire, where authorities declared a major incident and evacuated residents from the area.
Villagers have been evacuated from their homes near RAF Fairford, which is used by the United States Air Force (USAF), and the Army's explosives experts are examining vehicles, police said.
According to the agency, counter-terror police had no advance knowledge of a potential plot.
However, the incident was serious enough for RAF Fairford to block major entrances to the airbase with massive front-end loaders, suggesting concern about a possible vehicle-borne improvised explosive device.
Why could RAF Fairford have been a target? The US Air Force's 501st Combat Support Wing operates out of the airbase. It supports B-52, B-1, and B-2 bomber operations that have been crucial in the Gulf conflict against Iran.
Visegrád 24: First image of the suspected terror cell arrested near RAF Fairford from where U.S. strategic bombers B-52 & B-1B hit Iran The men arrested under the Explosives Act had their clothes taken off to see whether they wore suicide vests.
BREAKING
First image of the suspected terror cell arrested near RAF Fairford from where U.S. strategic bombers B-52 & B-1B hit Iran
The men arrested under the Explosives Act had their clothes taken off to see whether they wore suicide vests pic.twitter.com/dgdNgQc6j1
Visegrád 24: These are the vans that the bomb squad is have a closer look at near RAF Fairford in the UK. RAF Fairford is the base from where the U.S. strategic bombers B-52 and B-1B have been taking off from for striking missions against Iran.
BREAKING:
These are the vans that the bomb squad is have a closer look at near RAF Fairford in the UK.
RAF Fairford is the base from where the U.S. strategic bombers B-52 and B-1B have been taking off from for striking missions against Iran. pic.twitter.com/XCXBYxLERH
Speculation builds...
BREAKING: The five individuals arrested earlier this morning over an alleged plot to bomb RAF Fairford and destroy U.S. Air Force B-1B bombers are reportedly British nationals not immigrants arriving by boats or submarines.
There is speculation that they belong to Palestine… pic.twitter.com/iVHjH0B5gj
The Independent noted, "The arrests come amid heightened concerns around the threat from hostile states to the UK, with Russia and Iran among those that have used proxies to commit crimes on their behalf on British soil."
* * * FREE SHIPPING!
Tyler Durden Mon, 09/28/2026 - 11:55