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Restaurants Face GLP-1 Squeeze As Adopt-Or-Die Inflection Arrives
Bernstein's latest GLP-1 tracker has Eli Lilly's Mounjaro leading script growth, with downstream effects compounding pressure on the restaurant industry already facing weakening consumer confidence, as gas prices nationwide remain above a politically sensitive $4 a gallon in late summer.
Turning to UBS's latest note on the restaurant industry, Dennis Geiger, who covers U.S. restaurants and consumer discretionary names, wrote in a note on Sunday that restaurant investors are struggling to identify opportunities across the space amid sharp share-price volatility, weakening consumer confidence, growing uncertainty over the second-half outlook, and increasing GLP-1 adoption.
He points to a widening divide across the industry:
- Fast casual: Cava and Chipotle remain preferred, while Wingstop is attracting interest after its selloff. Investors see the NFL season, easier comparisons, and new value promotions as potential catalysts for Wingstop.
- Casual dining: Brinker International and Cheesecake Factory remain favored because of resilient sales momentum. Sentiment toward Darden is more cautious amid signs of slowing Olive Garden same-store sales.
- Quick service: McDonald's faces the most negative sentiment among large global chains as weak U.S. trends collide with difficult comparisons. Domino's is attracting more interest because of its depressed valuation and expectations for improving sales.
Geiger's note touched on not just an increasingly bifurcated U.S. consumer environment and dismal University of Michigan consumer sentiment, but also pointed out that quick-service chains face a particularly difficult combination of sluggish traffic, persistent inflation, and GLP-1 adoption.
Geiger cited a new survey from the National Restaurant Association that showed GLP-1 impacts: users are ordering smaller portions and fewer indulgent items after starting the wonder anti-fat drug, with Gen X cutting desserts and portion size most aggressively and Gen Z more likely to swap entrees for appetizers, add fiber, and drink less alcohol. The result is pressure on check averages and mix, especially desserts, sugary drinks, alcohol, and oversized entrees, rather than an immediate collapse in visits.
He expanded:
While GLP-1 users are less frequently going out to eat at restaurants, ordering takeout and using delivery, users are purchasing a meal / snack / beverage from a restaurant / coffee shop / snack place more often than non GLP-1 users, according to a recent webinar from the National Restaurant Association (NRA). GLP-1 users skew toward a higher-income cohort that is likely to eat out more frequently, but as GLP-1s become more accessible (w/ lower prices and oral forms), adoption across income cohorts should be more balanced. We note the NRA also indicated: a high percentage of GLP-1 users agree that healthy menu items are available at restaurants; GLP-1 users enjoy going out to restaurants; and users indicate going out to eat is a way to socialize, suggesting changing eating habits do not greatly affect affinity for dining out. Additionally, a high percentage of users indicate better communication of healthy options and portion size options is preferred at restaurants. The NRA highlights 1) value is not just the amount of food for a low price, but can include high protein, other nutrients, or health benefits for a low price, 2) growth in snacking and smaller portions among GLP-1 users, 3) lower ticket averages for users offset by increased visit frequency, add-on, and upcharges, and 4) beverage consumption away from alcohol, towards non- alcoholic options. The NRA also called out select brands with menu changes that have responded to GLP-1 preferences, including Chipotle, Olive Garden, and Shake Shack.
Figure 1: After starting GLP-1 drugs, users increasingly order smaller portions and less indulgent items.
The second chart shows why consumers are pulling back on alcohol at restaurants, citing mostly personal preferences and health concerns.
Figure 2: Reduction in alcohol consumption is driven by personal preferences and health reasons.
Traders are still searching for winners inside an increasingly pressured restaurant complex as several headwinds hit at once: weakening confidence, $4 gasoline, a bifurcated consumer, and rising GLP-1 adoption.
No Direction in S&P500 1500 Restaurant Index
UBS's Geiger and the NRA survey only suggest that consumers are trading down, ordering smaller portions, skipping desserts and sugary items, and drinking less alcohol - more selective, not necessarily boycotting visits. This is a lower-ticket issue that restaurants must adapt to.
Professional subscribers can read the full note here at our new Marketdesk.ai portal
Tyler Durden Tue, 09/01/2026 - 05:45Tropical Storm Edouard forms near Texas and Louisiana while a storm moves toward Hawaii
Lavrov Says NATO Military Activity In Arctic Threatens Russia's Security
Authored by Chris Summers via The Epoch Times,
NATO military activity in the Arctic poses a direct threat to Russia's security and could lead to disastrous consequences, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov wrote in an article published by the Russian Foreign Ministry on Monday.
A Russian soldier stands guard beside a Pansyr-S1 air defense system on Kotelny Island, part of the New Siberian Islands archipelago located between the Laptev Sea and the East Siberian Sea, in Russia on April 3, 2019. Vladimir Isachenkov/APIn February, NATO conducted Arctic Sentry, a large-scale military exercise in the Arctic and High North regions, amid concerns over the threat posed by both Russia and China. Russia, which has a naval fleet in the Arctic that includes nuclear-armed submarines dating back to the Soviet era, has long viewed the region as its sphere of interest.
"Intensive military preparations are underway in close proximity to our northern borders," Lavrov said. "NATO is conducting large-scale military exercises involving non-regional countries and introducing new components of its command-and-control system."
He said such activity increases the "risk of incidents that could trigger an armed confrontation with potentially disastrous consequences."
NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte said in February that Arctic Sentry was launched as a result of "Russia's increased military activity, and China's growing interest in the High North."
Lavrov said the West was also attempting to undermine Russia's international cooperation in the Arctic with countries from the "Global Majority," a term the Kremlin often uses to describe African and Asian countries.
Last month, at the NATO summit in Turkey, U.S. President Donald Trump again pressed for the United States to take control of Greenland, which he said has become a national security concern because of increasing Russian and Chinese influence in the Arctic.
'Landmark' Shipping VoyageMoscow is keen on developing the Northern Sea Route, an Arctic shipping corridor that creates a shortcut between Europe and Northeast Asian markets, including China, South Korea and Japan. It could cut the time for a container ship by 10 days compared with the regular route via the Indian Ocean and the Suez Canal, according to the Korea Institute for International Economic Policy.
In his article, Lavrov said a "landmark event" in Arctic shipping occurred on Aug. 19.
"For the first time, a container ship from China arrived at the port of Murmansk via the Northern Sea Route, a vital part of the Trans-Arctic Transport Corridor," he said.
The Barents Observer reported that the vessel was the Xin Xin Hai-1, a cargo ship that sails under a Hong Kong flag.
Lavrov said the Arctic contributed at least 10 percent of Russia's GDP and was home to more than 2.5 million Russian citizens.
China's Foreign Affairs Minister Wang Yi (L) and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov (R) exchange documents during a signing ceremony following talks in Moscow on May 8, 2025. Kirill Kudryavtsev/AFP via Getty ImagesHe said Moscow was ready to cooperate with other nations over the development of the region.
"There are prospects for interaction in the Far North with Brazil, Indonesia, Iran and other BRICS countries," Lavrov said, referring to an economic bloc which also includes India, Egypt, and Ethiopia.
"The vast resource, transport, and logistics potential of the Far North, its unique natural and climatic features, long-standing traditions of regional cooperation, and the rich cultural heritage of its indigenous peoples offer broad opportunities for advantageous partnership."
Russia's neighbor Norway said on Aug. 20 that it had expanded its Arctic brigade with an artillery battalion, an anti-aircraft battery, and a joint company.
"Russia's illegal war of aggression against Ukraine and the worsening security situation underline the need to build up the Finnmark Brigade as quickly as possible," the Norwegian Armed Forces stated.
Norway will also ignore the European Union's demands for a moratorium on hydrocarbon exploration in the Arctic Circle and continue drilling for oil and gas in the Barents Sea, the country's energy minister said last week.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 has led to increased fear among NATO member countries in Scandinavia, the Baltic, and eastern Europe that Russia poses a renewed threat, and there has been an uptick in defense spending as a result.
Moscow has previously dismissed allegations that it poses a threat to NATO.
Reuters contributed to this report.
Tyler Durden Tue, 09/01/2026 - 05:00How Trump cut antifa’s global leftist lifeline — and struck a blow for democracy
Kansas City bride goes viral after being summoned for jury duty on same day as wedding in Italy
India’s Modi tells Russia’s Putin that the war in Ukraine must end for humanity’s sake
Merz Warns Right-Wing Victory Will Hurt Germany, But Nomura Says Investors Aren't Buying It
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz spent Sunday fearmongering on public broadcaster ARD, warning that a potential victory for Alternative for Germany in next Sunday's Saxony-Anhalt election could inflict economic damage on the region.
Deutschland kann viel. Die Potenziale unseres Landes sind groß – und diese müssen wir nutzen. pic.twitter.com/4GFF5gtmyt
— Bundeskanzler Friedrich Merz (@bundeskanzler) August 31, 2026Merz's assessment conflicts with Nomura's political analysis, which suggests investors no longer reflexively fear right-wing victories. Instead, markets are increasingly focused on the economic consequences of left-wing policies, particularly deindustrialization, elevated energy costs, and uncontrolled mass migration, all of which have been nothing short of nation-killing.
"If things turn out the way the polls suggest, this federal state will face significant problems," Merz told broadcaster ARD. He questioned whether international companies would invest or build factories in a state governed by an AfD premier.
Polls show the AfD attracting more than 40% support, potentially double the roughly 20% backing for Merz's Christian Democratic Union. The center-right party has governed Saxony-Anhalt for more than two decades.
"The state will suffer considerable damage if the scenario we currently fear comes to pass," Merz said during the interview.
An AfD victory this coming weekend could produce Germany's first state government led by the right-wing party.
Merz's fearmongering comes as his approval ratings are the lowest recorded for any postwar German chancellor. Economic troubles have rocked Europe's largest economy, while voters have grown increasingly frustrated with Berlin.
Andrzej Szczepaniak, a senior European economist and executive director at Nomura, wrote last week about "the seeds of political change" and noted that "politics in Europe is lurching towards more populism."
Szczepaniak said, "Five years ago, financial markets would not have seemed so at ease with such a prospect. But then again, these populist right-wing political parties were previously not as fiscally prudent as they are perceived to be today. Indeed, Italy's Giorgia Meloni is the standard-bearer for financial markets of how a populist right-wing political party can govern: fiscally prudent enough to show investors that the party can govern responsibly while focusing heavily on social issues, including immigration and culture wars, to keep grassroots supporters happy."
He added, "Financial markets are much more concerned about populist left-wing parties being elected due to their desire to increase spending, often paid for through higher borrowing or higher taxes, which are likely to shut the engine off of already stuttering economies."
Looking ahead, Szczepaniak noted that right-wing parties are positioned to make significant gains across Germany, France, Spain, Switzerland, and the UK over the next 18 months.
Tyler Durden Tue, 09/01/2026 - 04:15Abdul El-Sayed stands by criticism of fireworks, tells Americans to find other ways to ‘show your love’
Former US Intel Officials: Dangerous Talk Of Putin's 'Loss' In Ukraine
Authored by Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity
MEMORANDUM FOR: The President
FROM: Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity (VIPS)
SUBJECT: Dangerous Talk of Putin’s ‘Loss’ in Ukraine
VIPS tells President Trump that once apprised of the reality on the ground (and in the air) by his intelligence advisors, he might choose to do what is in his power to end the disaster in Ukraine.
Dear President Trump:The New York Times is reporting that the outlook for Russia in Ukraine is “bleak.” C.I.A. Director John Ratcliffe is said to have explained that to the Russians while in Moscow Tuesday. He reportedly urged them “to cut a deal before their military and economic situation gets worse.”
We write you on the chance you may be taken in by this latest song and dance. We believe it is orchestrated by the same kind of geniuses who told President Joe Biden to announce on July 13, 2023, in a major speech in Helsinki, that the Russians had “already lost the war” in Ukraine.
We suggest that you “kick the tires,” if they try to sell you that same car. Nothing could be further from the truth. Your predecessor was ill-served by intelligence. We suspect you are getting the same tendentious treatment from your own advisers. Indeed, many of them seem unconscionably relaxed about risking wider war with Russia over Ukraine.
White House imageWe offer you, as we offered Biden, the following jogs to memory:
— December 3, 2022: “Russia is using up ammunition quite quickly. It’s pretty extraordinary. Our sense is that Russia is not capable of indigenously producing what they are expending at this stage.” (National Intelligence Director Avril Haines)
— March 18, 2022: “Russia has lost in Ukraine. The West should recognize this Russian defeat.” (Anatol Lieven, Quincy Institute)
— July 1 & July 7, 2023: “Putin’s war has already been a strategic failure for Russia – its military weaknesses laid bare; its economy badly damaged for years to come.” (C.I.A. Director William Burns)
The Church of Latter-Day PunditsTwo NY Times journalists who specialize in intelligence matters report Thursday that this latest version of the Russia-has-already-lost story is “the current C.I.A. director’s assessment.” They warn somewhat quizzically that, despite this, President Putin might ignore it “and choose to keep fighting.” But why would Putin do that?
Indeed, the Gray Lady and her intelligence sources seem quite baffled by why Putin would keep trying when, according to U.S. officials and pundits, he started losing three and a half years ago and continues to lose. Could it possibly be that it was they that were wrong – terribly wrong?
Dismissing that as a possibility, they perform a somersault, straighten up, and chose to blame Putin’s advisers who, the Times says, have not “given Putin honest assessments of the war’s trajectory and toll.”
If Black Humor is at work here, we do not find it funny. The slaughter in Ukraine brings hundreds of victims daily.
Russia is methodically advancing in Donbass along a thousand-mile front, it is weathering drone attacks on its oil and civilian infrastructure with enhanced interception and has enforced a virtual blockade on Ukraine’s largest port, Odessa, with withering aerial attacks. Ukraine’s manpower and interceptor shortages make it impossible for it to ever recover its lost territory, as you acknowledged after your meeting with President Putin in Alaska.
Mr. President, if you were given access to reality-based, honest intelligence, you would be able to decide for yourself whose advisers have gotten it right over these past five years. And, once apprised of the reality on ground (and in the air), you might choose to do what is in your power to end the disaster in Ukraine.
Déjà VuThis is not the first time we advised a president to seek unbiased advice with a view toward avoiding unnecessary, catastrophic war. We did that just a few hours after Colin Powell’s deceptive presentation to the U.N. Security Council on February 5, 2003.
Today, we strongly suggest that you broaden your circle of advisers, as we urged President George W. Bush to do then, in our first VIPS Memorandum, which ended with this recommendation:
“After watching Secretary Powell today, we are convinced that you would be well served if you widened the discussion beyond the circle of those advisers clearly bent on a war for which we see no compelling reason and from which we believe the unintended consequences are likely to be catastrophic.”
FOR THE STEERING GROUP, VETERAN INTELLIGENCE PROFESSIONALS FOR SANITY (VIPS)
-
Fulton Armstrong, former National Intelligence Officer (ret.)
- Marshall Carter-Tripp, Foreign Service Officer (ret.); Division Director, State Department Bureau of Intelligence and Research
-
Philip Giraldi, C.I.A., Operations Officer (ret.)
-
Matthew Hoh, former Capt., USMC, Iraq and Foreign Service Officer, Afghanistan (associate VIPS)
-
Larry C. Johnson, former C.I.A. and State Department Counter Terrorism officer
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John Kiriakou, former C.I.A. Counterterrorism Officer and former senior investigator, Senate Foreign Relations Committee
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Karen Kwiatkowski, former Lt. Col., U.S. Air Force (ret.), at Office of Secretary of Defense watching the manufacture of lies on Iraq, 2001-2003
- Douglas MacGregor, Colonel, USA (ret.) (associate VIPS)
-
Ray McGovern, former U.S. Army infantry/intelligence officer & C.I.A. analyst; C.I.A. Presidential briefer (ret.)
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Elizabeth Murray, former Deputy National Intelligence Officer/NE, National Intelligence Council & C.I.A. political analyst (ret.)
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Scott Ritter, former MAJ, USMC; former U.N. Weapons Inspector, Iraq
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Coleen Rowley, FBI Special Agent and former Minneapolis Division Legal Counsel (ret.)
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Sarah G. Wilton, CDR, USNR, (ret.); Defense Intelligence Agency (ret.)
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Ann Wright, retired U.S. Army reserve colonel and former U.S. diplomat who resigned in 2003 in opposition to the Iraq War
Selfless Utah dad killed by lightning strike trying to help stranded boaters off Florida coast
Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift’s dog makes fashion debut alongside tight end in Tommy Hilfiger campaign
Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift’s dog makes fashion debut alongside tight end in Tommy Hilfiger campaign
Bernie Sanders claims some Democrats may want their own Senate nominee to lose
Le Pen Would Beat Every Rival In 2027, Major French Poll Finds
Marine Le Pen would win France's 2027 presidential election against every major rival now being measured, according to a major survey by Elabe published on August 29 for BFMTV and La Tribune Dimanche.
Marine Le Pen, 2022. Albert Gea / ReutersFrance elects its president in two rounds: a crowded first round on April 18 cuts the field to the top two - no one will win outright - and the survivors meet again on May 2. Elabe has Le Pen at 34% to 35.5% in round one depending on who else runs, far clear of the pack, then beating every potential runoff opponent it tested. The new poll comes on the heels of a Nomura report which showed Le Pen with a commanding first-round lead.
The rest of the field is fighting over second place. Édouard Philippe, the former prime minister and the most plausible face of the post-Macron center, leads that pack at about 17% when he stands alone. Jean-Luc Mélenchon is on 14% to 14.5%, having lost his summer lift. Raphaël Glucksmann, now in the race, is between 11.5% and 14%. Gabriel Attal's presence mainly splits the moderate vote.
According to the poll, here's Le Pen:
- versus Philippe: 52.5% to 47.5%
- versus Attal or Glucksmann: 57% to 43%
- versus Mélenchon: 69.5% to 30.5%
For a generation, French presidential politics assumed a front républicain: a cross-party second-round squeeze that would keep the National Rally out of the Élysée. It elected Chirac 82-18 over her father in 2002 and Macron twice over her; yet the margin has narrowed every time. According to the Elabe poll, that squeeze is no longer automatic. Le Pen is not only first in April. She is ahead in May against every opponent Elabe put up. Even against Philippe, the closest of them, she leads by five points.
Le Pen's popularity has perhaps been boosted by her status as a martyr - created by what some might consider establishment efforts to throw her off track. On July 7 the Paris court of appeal upheld her embezzlement conviction in the European Parliament assistants case. It shortened the ban on holding office enough for her to stand and imposed a year of house arrest with an electronic tag. Her appeal to the Cour de Cassation freezes that sentence while she campaigns. The court has said it aims to rule before the first round. A confirmed tag would not take her off the April ballot. It would frame the May runoff. Le Pen herself has said she could not campaign tagged - though sentence remission could free her by early 2027 either way. Jordan Bardella remains the party's designated stand-in.
At the summer gathering of MEDEF (France's main employers' federation) at Roland-Garros on August 27 she set out a €125 billion savings path and a plan to let long-tenure workers retire at 60 to 62, costed at about €9 billion and described as a "societal choice." French banks are still wary of financing National Rally campaigns. On these numbers, voters are less so.
Bond markets are pricing the wider strain - as French 10-year yields have been near 4.1%, their highest since late 2008. The extra yield over German Bunds is about 80 basis points, the wide end of a 59-to-85 range over the past year. That premium reflects a hung Assembly, a government that has already stumbled on the budget, a 2027 finance bill due in October that may not pass in ordinary form, a deficit still near 5% of GDP, and IMF debt figures already around 118.5% this year and through 120% in 2027.
The working rule of French politics was that Le Pen could reach the steps of the Élysée and not the door - but rules were made to be broken.
Tyler Durden Tue, 09/01/2026 - 02:45Nonverbal 5-year-old found dead in South Carolina waterway after wandering from vacation rental home
Is Germany Preparing To Unveil A Wealth Tax?
Submitted by Thomas Kolbe
Will 2027 be the year the wealth register is introduced? Labor Minister Bärbel Bas confirmed this week on Bild that her ministry plans a representative survey of citizens next year on their assets and their views on distributive justice. A classic about-face by this government: just three weeks earlier, Bas had categorically ruled out any such plans.
Concretely, a tax-funded data collection effort involving roughly 5,000 citizens is planned. The rollout will run through an external research institute as part of an EU-wide tender, whose bidding deadline closes September 1.
"Survey experiment on wealth inequality in the population" is the innocuous-sounding name for this study — likely nothing more than a first step toward a comprehensive wealth register.
Cloaked in the mantle of scientific inquiry, politics is edging, step by step, toward the sensitive issue that has hung over the political debate for years like a sword of Damocles: the wealth register. This register — one of numerous European Union projects — is ultimately meant to enable seamless, individualized wealth assessments: the perfect tax base for the perfectly transparent citizen.
What's new here isn't really the format: similar wealth surveys have already been conducted every four years by institutes like Berlin's DIW. What's truly new is the explicit political framing and normative interpretation of the results.
Of course wealth distribution in Germany is unequal — a natural outcome of a free-market order, and an integral part of a system rooted in the principle that reward should follow performance.
The survey design and the interpretation of its results dock directly onto this inequality, and are meant to legitimize policy options such as introducing a wealth tax, raising inheritance taxes, or other redistributive measures. At least Berlin still bothers to maintain a veneer of scientific reasoning before executing its brazen raid on the middle class's savings.
That the German government has done more than merely glance at citizens' wealth became apparent, at the latest, this past Monday. The Federal Statistical Office reported a nationwide deficit of €71.3 billion for the first half of the year — an increase of €36.6 billion over the same period last year. The need is dire. The damage that Berlin's and Brussels' ideological policies have inflicted on the economy in recent years threatens to melt down the tax coffers.
Just a week earlier, the ifo Institute had warned of a fiscal tipping point. Economists concluded that tax revenue could actually shrink going forward, putting an end to Berlin's cornucopia politics. As possible countermeasures, Berlin is now clearly planning tax hikes as well as an expansion of the tax base to include citizens' wealth.
The situation is dire: cyclically sensitive taxes such as corporate and trade tax have shown a negative trend for several quarters now, and the wave of insolvencies sweeping the country, the growing number of business closures, and rising unemployment give no indication that this trend will reverse anytime soon.
From the citizen's perspective, the situation looks like this: given the towering fiscal burdens an ever-expanding state apparatus imposes on him, a sovereign risks becoming a tax vassal — if he hasn't already become one.
A state that cannot get its own budget under control tends toward fiscal highway robbery — and will not hesitate to slap heavy levies on the already multiply-taxed wealth of families and businesses.
You know the drill: it's all done in the name of social justice. Reasons can always be found — but under this kind of policy, what erodes is the remaining sovereignty of civil society itself, the very engine of prosperity, social stability, and republicanism.
Friedrich August von Hayek would likely have judged: Germany is on the road to serfdom — and has already traveled a good stretch of it.
And anyone who still believes the reach for wealth, inheritances, and land will stop at the supposedly rich is in for a rude awakening: the truly wealthy escape the fiscal raid precisely because of their high geographic mobility.
No - the state has its sights set on those who cannot get out of its way: the classic middle class, the Mittelstand, those bound to the land, so to speak - to put it in neo-feudal terms.
The opposite of feudal would be an unrestricted right to private property — one that, naturally, also includes wealth accumulation, entirely without political debate. People are not sovereign when the sword of Damocles of arbitrary taxation hangs over them: once the state can seize assets at will, private property becomes borrowed possession — and the citizen becomes a tax serf. This is precisely why envy-fueled debates over wealth taxes and distributive justice are so dangerous: they shift power from the citizen to the state apparatus, which by its very nature knows no limits — and by now no longer even bothers to hide it.
In the end, only one bitter realization remains: a state that shamelessly lays its citizens bare, and strips away the sanctity of private property along with the last refuges of the once-sovereign citizen using a cheap, resentment-laden argument, has already broken the bond of trust between state and citizen. Wealth as the citizen's last line of defense simply evaporates.
* * *
About the author: Thomas Kolbe, a German graduate economist, has worked for over 25 years, he has worked as a journalist and media producer for clients from various industries and business associations. As a publicist, he focuses on economic processes and observes geopolitical events from the perspective of the capital markets. His publications follow a philosophy that focuses on the individual and their right to self-determination.