As we've told readers, and as former Goldman commodities guru Jeff Currie explained last week, the energy crisis is not necessarily in Brent or WTI supplies, but in refined-product markets, given the diesel crack spread's jump above $100 a barrel last week. Early Monday, the spread was trading around $94.
The secondary effects of a global refined-products crisis are beginning to hit airline earnings, according to Raymond James analyst Savanthi Syth, who wrote in a note Monday morning that she is cutting estimates across her airline coverage universe as jet-fuel prices surge.
US Gulf Coast jet fuel prices have soared 39% quarter-to-date through Aug. 19, outpacing gains of 26% in Brent and 21% in WTI. The divergence reflects yet another rising cost for airlines already confronting higher labor costs, aircraft shortages, and operational disruptions.
"We are lowering estimates across our airline coverage universe primarily to reflect a higher jet fuel price forecast (2H26E/2027E/2028E increased by ~18%/14%/7%), partly offset at non-U.S. airlines by the somewhat weaker U.S. dollar against local currencies," Syth told clients.
She added, "We are also upgrading ALGT from Outperform to Strong Buy following the greater QTD pullback in shares (Exhibit 11) despite a constructive backdrop (ex-fuel), including Allegiant's idiosyncratic margin recovery levers, flexible capacity model, and now-enhanced scale following the Sun Country acquisition. Our ratings and revised target prices are summarized in Exhibit 1, while select KPIs and estimates are shown in Exhibits 8-10."
Syth's revised third- and fourth-quarter earnings estimates are now below Wall Street consensus for most major carriers. Her 2026 forecasts include a 51-cent loss for American Airlines, a $2.43 loss for JetBlue, and earnings of $5.75 for Delta, all below consensus.
So far, passenger demand remains robust despite higher fares this summer, but the latest data from the Transportation Security Administration shows early signs of weakening in late summer.
TSA throughput data is down about 2.6% from a year earlier this quarter, compared with a 1.1% decline in scheduled seats.
JetBlue appears to be the weakest airline in her coverage. She maintained an Underperform rating, warning that a Chapter 11 restructuring may be the "more prudent" way to address the carrier's overleveraged balance sheet.
S&P 500 Airlines Index vs. Jet-Fuel Prices
The takeaway is that the refined-products crisis, which has pushed jet-fuel and diesel prices sky-high, will begin to weigh on airlines again just as demand weakens heading into the end of summer.
Tyler Durden Mon, 08/24/2026 - 12:00Via Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com,
Wall Street money manager and financial analyst Ed Dowd of PhinanceTechnologies.com made a name for himself during the dot com bubble. It was not because he was telling people to buy, it was because he was telling investors to get out before it all blew up. Dowd saved people a lot of money by sidestepping a crash.
Fast-forward to today, and Dowd sees the same bubble signs in AI (artificial intelligence) as he did just before the Dot-com bubble blew up.
This time around, it’s far worse. Dowd says:
“Being a student of history gives you an idea of where you might go in the future.
Currently, we have the greatest bubble of all time, and that is the AI bubble.
It is in the process of becoming exposed, and people are beginning to issue warning signals. Lloyd Blankfein, the former CEO of Goldman Sachs, has issued a warning . . . about the AI risk. He’s worried people are too concentrated in this trade...
First of all, there is not even enough power to power these data centers.
That’s going to halt the CapEx (Capital Expenditure) on its own accord.
There is so much capital that has to be raised that will compete with government debt, there will be a crowding out effect.
The costs to finance this are going to keep going higher and higher, and this will cause some bankruptcies . . . and then it all unwinds.”
How bad does Dowd think this will get?
Dowd says, “It would not surprise me to see a 40% to 50% correction at some point..."
" Calling when that is going to happen is very difficult. I don’t suggest anyone short the market, but it seems like we are getting closer to the end game when people are openly calling this a bubble.
People say the bubble does not pop until everybody believes. That’s not true. There were plenty of people during the 2000 Dot-com bubble who knew it was a bubble.
They actually played it, and the game was ‘get out before everybody else gets out.’
So, people know it’s a bubble. The question is what will burst it?
That is the credit markets and private credit, which has been a big source of funding for AI that is under stress. There is a default cycle coming, and general backdrop of the real economy is quite weak.
The consumer is not doing well. Walmart just reported, and it had the lowest same store sales in six years...
The general population is not doing well, the housing market is rolling over, and we have the economic problems with China we have talked about before.
So, it’s all conspiring to be a nasty correction.”
On top of that, Dowd, author of the popular book “Cause Unknown” (about the deaths and disabilities caused by the CV19 shots), has another big never-seen-before drag on the economy. Dowd reports “US Disabilities Hit an All-Time High of 37 Million in July: Up 23% Since Feb 2021.” That’s when the CV19 injections rolled out. Dowd says:
“This is a trend change. I can confidently say a large percentage of that increase is CV19 vaccine related.
This has been well documented, and it’s coming out more and more.
I am just a stats guy showing the phenomenon.
The science is coming in proving this is most likely the cause of this.”
When will this negatively affect the economy? Dowd says, “It’s already affecting the economy. When excess deaths and excess disabilities starting showing up, what did life insurers do? They repriced their products higher. So, the cost of healthcare insurance is going up for everybody. More disabled means the system needs to spread that around. This means higher prices for everybody. Life insurance premiums are going up. Health insurance premiums are going up. Disability insurance premiums are going up. It also affects employers, and it’s harder to find people. The government will have to pay for disability. . .. It’s an economic drain and productivity suck. . .. This is just a disaster. There are seven million additional disabled since 2020. . .. and the trend is still going up.”
There is much more in the 45-minute interview.
Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog as he goes one-on-one with money manager and investment expert Ed Dowd as he explains why the AI bubble is destined to pop. Add this to the negative outlook written about in his report called “US Economy Outlook 2026.”
Tyler Durden Mon, 08/24/2026 - 11:40Yemen's Houthis on Monday targeted the Saudi oil tanker Amzan in the Red Sea off Yanbu with a ballistic missile and drones, the Iran-aligned militant group announced.
Soon after initial reports emerged, Saudi Arabia confirmed the attack, with Saudi shipping company Bahri stating that its Amzan vessel was involved in a hostile incident in regional waters.
Yahya Saree, the military spokesman for the Houthi rebels in Yemen, described that the attacks were carried out using ballistic missiles and drones and were executed as part of the implementation of the 'siege for siege' operation targeting the Saudis.
The Houthis are also claiming fresh attacks on Saudi military convoys carrying military equipment to Yemeni government forces. This is after pledging to hit Saudi troop concentrations and weapons depots anywhere they are found in the region. Details are as follows:
In another development, the Yemeni Armed Forces, by the grace of Allah, successfully carried out two military operations of which the first targeted a Saudi military convoy, consisting of a large convoy loaded with military equipment, in the Al-Abr and Al-Wadi'ah areas using ballistic missiles and drones, resulting in the burning and destruction of more than ten trucks loaded with weapons that were coming from Saudi territory to target the Yemeni people.
The second operation targeted Saudi enemy forces in the Al-Kanais area with ballistic missiles and drones, which resulted in the death and injury of dozens, including commanders and officers, and the burning and destruction of several weapons depots.
Starting last week, the Houthis laid out three objectives they seek to impose on the Saudis:
Already, Aramco facilities have been targeted at least four times over the past weeks, since the Saudi-Houthi conflict erupted again. Iran has of late been much more open in boasting that its Yemeni ally is doing damage on US allies in the region.
For example, Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) spokesman Brig. Gen. Hossein Mohebbi recently told the semiofficial Mehr News Agency this week that the kingdom cannot defeat the group.
"How can Saudi Arabia, whose military capability is less than that of the Zionist regime, be able to cope with Ansar Allah and the Yemeni fighters? This is not possible," he said.
Like the Iranians, the Houthis have some natural leverage given the geography of oil transit chokepoints. Al Monitor also observed this month: "Traffic in the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, which connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden, may be on the rebound despite the Houthi blockade... Around 50 ships typically crossed before the recent escalation.
Chokepoint traffic holds, risks shift#MarineTraffic data show vessel traffic remained active through Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb last week, although headline volumes mask significant changes in the underlying mix. Hormuz recorded 121 crossings, up 2.5% from 118. Laden crossings… pic.twitter.com/mNFRBiW4tW
— MarineTraffic (@MarineTraffic) August 24, 2026It noted further, "Saudi Arabia has been rerouting oil exports through the Red Sea in response to the disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz."
Tyler Durden Mon, 08/24/2026 - 11:20