A new study has concluded that 152 Polymarket wallets may have profited from access to secret information about military action, with other wallets copying the insiders' bets. The patterns raise red flags about foreign adversaries' potential exploitation of insiders' profit-seeking to anticipate American strikes.
Released on Thursday by the Anti-Corruption Data Collective (ACDC), the 29-page report focuses on a particular species in the diverse prediction market ecosystem -- an "Orca," which ACDC describes as a wallet that makes targeted, long-shot bets in a manner differs from the behavior of high-volume, high-frequency, multi-market "Whales." Analysts also studied the corresponding behavior of "Bots," which are wallets that seem at least partially automated.
To locate Orcas in the sea of data, ACDC looked at wallets that "place bets in a small number of markets and on very few topics, and have a high success rate (> 75%) for longshot bets (defined as more than $2500 wagered at 35 cents or less)." The researchers found that, where military event markets were concerned, Orcas would bet first, with Whales and Bots following in their wakes. They noted that Orcas snared the biggest percentage returns, but Whales and Bots -- putting down more money -- would rake in the biggest actual profits.
A cohort of 152 Orcas betting on military actions won $8 million and posted a sparkling 97.2% win rate on events where the market had the likelihood at 35% or less when the Orcas stepped up to wager. The report highlighted several Orca attributes that suggest they're insiders:
The report includes a case study on an Orca that wagered on action against Iran. "0x88e6" placed its first longshot bet on the very day of America's June airstrike on Iran's Fordow nuclear complex. It made multiple bets that day, with the last one squeezed in just an hour before the bombs dropped. With some of the bets priced as low as 5 cents, 0x88e6 won more than $20,000 for the strike. It went on to win more than $13,000 on Fordow having been deemed successfully "destroyed."
Special Forces MSGT Gannon Van Dyke was arrested after winning $400,000 betting on the operation to seize Venezuela's president (via Business Insider)ACDC's analysts observed Whales and Bots swooping in with heftier capital to mimic Orca bets:
When an Orca bet on U.S. military action in Iran hours before the June 2025 strikes...a Bot and a Whale made copycat wagers of $200,000 and $100,000, respectively. Similar Orca bets before February U.S.-Israeli air strikes on Tehran also appeared to spark a flurry of first-time long-shot bets by Bots and Whales wagering on the same outcome, the research found. -- Reuters
"Most people vastly underestimate how observable unusual betting activity actually is on Polymarket. It's all right there on the internet, and we can see clear signs that big traders and bots are copying potential insider trades," ACDC co-founder David Szakonyi told Reuters. "It would be naive to think foreign-intelligence agencies aren't monitoring these markets."
“We spotted nine Polymarket accounts, all connected, who made, collectively,$2.4 million betting almost exclusively on U.S. military operations,” says Nicolas Vaiman, co-founder of the small data analytics firm Bubblemaps.
“And now here's the crazy part: 98% win rate.”… pic.twitter.com/XXietAHjvv
In April, US Army Special Forces Master Sergeant Gannon Ken Van Dyke was arrested for allegedly making more than $400,000 by placing Polymarket bets on the timing of a US military operation to capture Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. Van Dyke was involved in the planning and execution of that very operation. The federal government charged him with unlawful use of confidential government information for personal gain, theft of nonpublic government information, commodities fraud, wire fraud, and making an unlawful monetary transaction. In February, the Israeli government arrested and indicted an IDF military reservist and a civilian with classified clearances who placed Polymarket bets regarding military operations, with one of the bets covering the timing of Israel's first strike on Iran in June 2025.
While warning about national security and "political integrity" risks, ACDC lauded Polymarket's public blockchain architecture: "The same data transparency that allows Whales and Bots to legally capitalize on the information advantage of others allows researchers and journalists to uncover potential insider trading." At the same time ACDC noted the difficulty of identifying the insiders, and argued for "outright bans on the types of markets most vulnerable" to their exploitation. The group is also pushing for identification verification for all users, and delaying payouts for high-risk bets while the transaction is scrutinized.
Tyler Durden Mon, 08/24/2026 - 05:45Authored by Natalia Katona via OilPrice.com,
The Rhine has slightly risen from its mid-August record low (when Kaub's water level gauge - at the river's decisive chokepoint - was below 10 cm), but the relief is mostly optical. Barges still cannot carry normal loads through it, leaving the industrial corridor from Rotterdam and Antwerp to southern Germany, eastern France and Switzerland short of transport capacity. The immediate result is expensive freight, constrained chemical production and uneven fuel supply. However, the more troubling conclusion is that Europe is avoiding a deeper disruption only because its factories and consumers are already demanding less. This way, the Rhine's low-water crisis is a stress test for an industrial system built around cheap, high-volume river transport, and a reminder that pipelines, railways and roads cannot quickly reproduce what the Rhine does.
Kaub, on the Middle Rhine, determines how much cargo can move between the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) hub and industrial centres farther south. When its navigable water depth fell below 10 centimetres in mid-August, the waterway was roughly 1.2 metres deep (in comparison, just a year ago water depth was around 2.3 meters). The level has since recovered to about 45 centimetres, but that remains below the 77-centimetre benchmark - far from a return to normal commercial traffic. At the lowest levels, only specialised low-draft barges can cross Kaub, and while the Lower Rhine may remain open, the route to the Upper Rhine is effectively shut for most vessels, fragmenting what normally functions as one market.
The chemical industry feels that fracture first. Several of Germany's largest steam crackers are located along the Rhine corridor and are affected by restrictions at Kaub. The BASF, INEOS, LyondellBasell and Shell sites in this area have around 3.1 million t/y of combined ethylene capacity. BASF's Ludwigshafen complex is particularly exposed because it lies south of Kaub and moves about 40% of all incoming and outgoing goods by river.
Naphtha supply is not much of a problem - most of Germany's naphtha moves by pipeline, offering protection against a river bottleneck. But pipelines do not redistribute the broad range of finished products made by a cracker, and if those materials cannot leave, storage fills, and operators must curb runs. With low water levels continuing to limit the normal movement on the river, barges are forced to carry smaller loads, while specialised chemical vessels are limited. Related: U.S. Billionaires Are Piling Into Argentina's Vaca Muerta Shale
The effects can spread quickly into smaller downstream markets. LyondellBasell's force majeure at its 170,000 t/y Wesseling butadiene unit followed restricted feedstock flows to its crackers and a resulting decline in crude C4 production. Crude C4 is produced during the steam cracking of naphtha alongside ethylene and is then processed to extract butadiene. A relatively small reduction in cracker output can therefore cause a much larger squeeze in the smaller butadiene market - and other co-products that are difficult to reroute, such as pyrolysis gasoline, face similar pressure.
This restricted inland movements of chemical products contributed to naphtha inventories in ARA reaching 598,000 tonnes in mid-August (75% more than a month earlier). However, the problem is not only in the movement restrictions: weaker cracker operations have overall reduced naphtha consumption by the crackers even before the Rhine's levels became an issue - the crackers have been running at 70% due to weak demand on their production across the wider European market.
The same effect is emerging in refining. Most inland German refineries receive crude through pipelines, so the Rhine does not automatically force crude runs lower. Their exposure lies in intermediate feedstocks, blending components and, above all, moving gasoline, diesel and heating oil to customers.
Karlsruhe illustrates the issue. Road trucks have been shuttling to and from the Miro refinery (320,000 b/d capacity) to collect fuel, but the site also normally ships products by barge both toward ARA and upstream to Switzerland. With movements restricted in both directions, Karlsruhe must hold surplus refined products in its storage facilities, while markets farther away pay shortage premiums.
The Rhine's freight rates reflect this physical imbalance. The assessed ARA-Karlsruhe barge rate rose five-fold to €215/t currently from about €45/t at the end of June, while ARA-Basel reached €275/t in mid-August. At extreme low water, even those assessments become partly theoretical because few normal cargoes can pass.
Road and rail offer relief, but not replacement. Chemicals require appropriate tankers and transportation conditions, while the volumes involved overwhelm available vehicles and infrastructure. One fully loaded barge carrying 2,400 tonnes of diesel is equivalent to 90 trucks. Germany's temporary relaxation of Sunday and public-holiday restrictions for heavy vehicles may improve flexibility, but it cannot manufacture tank cars, specialist trailers, drivers or road capacity.
Yet the constraints extend even beyond crackers and refineries. Covestro declared force majeure on polyether polyols made at Dormagen, while Salzgitter shifted coal from Rotterdam to rail for its HKM steelmaking division. Such workarounds keep selected flows moving, but they also compete for the same scarce trains and trucks needed elsewhere. The disruption is therefore cumulative: every industry solving its own bottleneck makes the alternatives tighter for the next.
Nor is this only a German problem. Eastern France has experienced localised gasoline shortages as barges serving Strasbourg carried a fraction of their normal loads. Switzerland faces higher import costs and the possibility of drawing on strategic stocks. Rotterdam and Antwerp remain supplied by sea, yet congestion and slower terminal turnover spread costs across the wider northwest European market. This way, low water does not create a single European shortage but rather creates a dispersed issue of trapped supply and local shortages.
For now, weak demand is preventing isolated local shortages and oversupplies from becoming a broader crisis. European crackers were operating at only about 70% in July, after years of pressure from expensive energy, weak construction and automotive demand, and cheaper imports from Asian competitors. Fuel consumption in inland Germany has also been decreasing. However, if chemical plants and fuel markets were operating near normal levels, the shortage of river capacity would be much harder to absorb. A recovery in manufacturing, higher diesel demand or winter stockpiling could therefore intensify the disruption even if water levels improve modestly.
The Rhine may have risen slightly, but Europe's industrial margin of safety has not. This summer's lesson is that weak demand can cushion a logistics failure, but it cannot solve one. When (or if) the economy rebounds and supply chains are once again required to handle normal volumes, the problem will extend far beyond the river itself.
And besides, this summer should not be mistaken for a worst-case scenario. A super El Niño could bring a warmer winter, less Alpine snow and a weaker meltwater buffer. If another hot, dry summer follows, Rhine levels in July and August 2027 could fall even lower than this year's records.
Tyler Durden Mon, 08/24/2026 - 05:00Authored by Haley Zaremba via OilPrice.com,
Donald Trump is accidentally overseeing a massive buildout of the country's renewable energy capacity and infrastructure. Not only are investments in renewable technologies soaring to new highs, the national energy grid is rapidly transforming to accommodate an increasingly solar- and wind-powered energy mix.
Despite massive rollbacks of Biden- and Obama-era clean energy incentives and financial supports, investment in clean energy tech keeps soaring to new heights, buoyed by market forces far outside of the federal government's control. Clean energy capital expenditures already reached $74 billion in the first half of 2026, and they're on track to reach a record $180 billion by the end of the year, according to fintech firm Crux's State of Clean Energy Finance: 2026 Mid-Year Market Intelligence Report.
"The market is proving resilient," Crux CEO and co-founder Alfred Johnson was recently quoted by Politico's E&E News. "We're seeing a significant amount of investment subsequent to the tax law changes of last year."
The insatiable energy demand coming from data center hyperscalers and the artificial intelligence boom has spurred a tidal wave of investment into all kinds of energy projects, and especially renewables due to their noted advantages when it comes to energy security and affordability. These advantages have been underscored in recent months by extreme volatility in fossil fuel markets thanks to the war in Iran and resultant supply chain vulnerabilities. "Renewables and storage continue to be the fastest way to get new electrons on the grid until additional gas-fired generation can be built," NextEra Energy CEO John Ketchum was recently quoted by Reuters.
As a result, we are currently "living in what arguably is one of the best periods to invest in renewables in the US over the last 20 years" according to Miguel Stilwell d'Andrade, chief executive officer of Portuguese electric utilities company EDP. Accordingly, EDP is directing approximately USD $5.3 billion - more than half of its capital expenditures - toward United States renewables projects over the next three years.
All of that renewable energy buildout is being accompanied by a massive and unprecedented uptick in battery storage buildout, resulting in a rapid transformation of the nation's energy grid. Over the past three years, utility-scale battery storage capacity increased at a blistering rate of 70 percent per year on average to reach 52 gigawatts (GW) today. Nearly 16 percent of that - 8.3 GW - was added in the first half of this year alone.
"This expansion depends mostly on co-locating batteries with solar photovoltaic (PV) plants to capitalize on wholesale price arbitrage across major energy markets," Interesting Engineering reported earlier this week. Connecting battery packs directly to solar farms allows the farms' operators to store excess clean energy at peak production hours until the evening hours, when production wanes, demand rises, and rates reach a premium. "This lucrative business model has sparked a massive construction boom across solar-heavy states, turning temporary energy storage into a primary driver of modern grid infrastructure," Interesting Engineering goes on to report.
As stunning as this year's figures are, the battery storage revolution is just getting started. Grid operators already have plans to add another 54 GW of battery capacity by the end of 2028. That means that the nation's energy storage capacity will double again by 2030, compared to current levels.
And the United States is not alone - the energy storage renaissance is proving to be a global trend. China is leading buildout by a wide margin, controlling more than half of global capacity. But other major global leaders are hurrying to get a foothold into the rapidly expanding market. Just this month, the European Union formalized a plan to triple the bloc's energy storage capacity by 2030. European Leaders are banking on energy storage - alongside renewable energy expansion - to steady the continent's energy markets and protect member states from the next energy crisis.
Tyler Durden Mon, 08/24/2026 - 03:30Social media may have been built to connect people, but entertainment and diversion now appear to be its main draws.
As Statista's Felix Richter reports, according to Statista Consumer Insights, nearly half of U.S. respondents say entertainment is an important criterion when it comes to social media, ahead of passing time and communicating with friends and family.
You will find more infographics at Statista
Among young adults aged 18 to 29, the social dimension of social media is even less pronounced: 32 percent cite staying in touch with friends and family as important, compared with 37 percent who value simply passing time.
With only 25 percent naming meeting new people as a priority, the findings illustrate how social platforms increasingly function as an always-on source of content, diversion and passive consumption, as opposed to it original purpose of staying in touch with friends.
Tyler Durden Mon, 08/24/2026 - 02:45Authored by Jason Ditz via Antiwar.com,
A week after ordering the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) to prepare for a "long-term stay" in occupied southern Lebanon, Defense Minister Israel Katz has now also ordered them to escalate the rate at which they're destroying what is being framed as "Hezbollah infrastructure" across the south.
The issue with this is the same as it's been throughout the war, that Israel's definition of Hezbollah infrastructure generally boils down to civilian infrastructure at large, with a particular emphasis on the municipalities where Shi'ite Muslims live, but by no means restricting the attacks just to them.
Officials aimed to frame the tiny Shi'ite villages that the IDF already occupies as "Hezbollah fortresses," and presented the ongoing demolition of those villages as "engineering activity." Much of that engineering involves explosions, whether it's heavy artillery fire on the villages or increasingly the deployment of incendiary white phosphorus munitions to set fires in the villages and the surrounding area.
IDF military vehicles seen smashing solar panels in Debel, Lebanon | Image from XKatz has made clear that a number of the villages in the southernmost parts of Lebanon will simply have to "disappear," and with tens of thousands of homes destroyed in recent months, there are a number of villages which it can be said simply no longer exist.
But Israel has allowed a handful of non-Shi'ite villages to remain in that area, but living under the occupation leaves those villages in a very tenuous situation. Local leaders in Kfar Chouba reported that the IDF warned them that if anyone in the village was armed, the entire village population would be expelled and the buildings destroyed. So far, that hasn't happened.
But obeying the occupiers doesn't mean the villagers can live as they would in peacetime. The village's economy is based heavily around farming and olive orchards, but the Israeli troops regularly restrict villagers' access to those lands. There's no formal rule given to the villagers as to where they're allowed or not allowed at any given time, and even the southernmost parts of the village are "no go" areas, with IDF troops reportedly setting up operations within buildings in that part of the village.
Further north, Israel continues to heavily attack the Ali Taher Ridge, though in the past few days they haven't made any serious attempts to advance on the ground into the area. Israel reportedly sees the ridge as strategically valuable, as it overlooks much of the northern part of Nabatieh District, the northernmost part of Lebanon that Israel intends to occupy, at least at this point.
Tyler Durden Mon, 08/24/2026 - 02:00