Zero Rss

An Interesting Divergence Is Emerging Between The Fed And Other Central Banks

By Benjamin Picton, senior market strategist at Rabobank

Circle Of Life

Active Brent crude futures fell by almost 5% yesterday as the US extended its pause on striking Iran. Donald Trump had indicated that the lull was underway to give diplomacy another chance, claiming that the US was in “very deep talks” with Iran but that his patience for progress was short, saying “either it goes fast or not at all.”

Brent has opened more than 3% higher this morning to follow overnight gains in WTI prices following Iranian missile strikes on a US base in Jordan – the first Iranian attacks since the recent ‘pause’ began – and joint strikes by the US and Saudi Arabia on Iran-backed militants in Iraq. Those Saudi-US came in retaliation for strikes on Saudi oil infrastructure. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu met with President Trump at the White House yesterday where the potential normalization of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia was reportedly discussed.

Equity markets saw divergence yesterday between semiconductor stocks and value plays. South Korea’s KOSPI closed the day down 10.84% after triggering a market circuit-breaker early in the session, while Taiwan’s TAIEX index fell by 4.65%. Korean tech leaders Samsung and SK Hynix both fell by more than 10% as the latter posted record earnings but fell short of analyst estimates.

The chip selloff extended over to US markets, seeing the NASDAQ 100 fall by almost 1% to be off by close to 10% since the June highs. Sandisk, Seagate and Micron technologies were among the worst performers. The explanation offered by various newswires is that investors are becoming anxious about the large CAPEX programs of chip companies, including the ‘circle of life’ series of acquisitions and equity investments across the sector that critics suggest are keeping equity prices inflated beyond reasonable levels and raising the stakes for upcoming earnings reports.

Meanwhile, European stock indices were broadly higher, the S&P500 lifted 0.2% and the Dow Jones closed more than 1% higher. Among Asian indices the Australian ASX200 was a conspicuous outperformer, helped along by a relative paucity of tech names and an 8.6% gain for Viva Energy, who operates one of only two Australian oil refineries and reported an expected doubling of first-half earnings off the back of stronger refining margins. The expected earnings boost comes despite a 2% drop in fuel sales in the June quarter vs the prior corresponding period (June 2025). This was driven by a 4.7% drop in commercial and industrial fuel volumes, which might provide an insight into broader economic activity.

While geopolitical concerns simmer away, market attention will turn today to the FOMC, who meet to decide on the appropriate level of the Fed Funds rate. The overnight index swaps market currency has a touch over 8bps worth of rate hike priced-in for this meeting. The September meeting is now fully-priced for a 25bp hike, with another hike in the curve for March next year. In reality, few expect the Fed to raise rates at this meeting (we certainly do not), though we may see some FOMC members dissent in favour of lifting rates.

An interesting divergence is now emerging between the Fed under Kevin Warsh and other central banks. Warsh’s predilection for the Fed to “say less” contrasts with the approach of the RBA, who are busily implementing review findings encouraging better communication. The RBA recently published results of a survey it conducted which made the groundbreaking discovery that households’ primary economic concern is the rising cost of living (inflation) and that many individuals don’t have a firm grasp on the esoterics of monetary policy.

Given that the effectiveness of monetary policy transmission is related to the credibility of the central bank, the RBA views this as a problem for it to solve by communicating more effectively. Might we expect set-piece speeches like Governor Bullock’s appearance in support of the Anika Foundation yesterday to give way to TikToks?

Warsh, on the other hand, seems to take the view that the wizard retains more power if he remains behind the curtain. Saying less would neatly resolve the risk central bankers face of painting themselves into a corner when goaded into issuing forward guidance by enthusiastic journalists.

Bullock spent much of her speech yesterday rehashing the theme of repeated international shocks buffeting the supply side of the economy. Though Australia carried plenty of inflation momentum into the current oil shock, a tightening of global energy supplies has certainly exacerbated the problem and would have figured in the RBA’s decisions to raise the policy rate in March and May. There was some good news on the inflation front today though, with headline CPI in the year to June printing two ticks below market expectations at 3.8% and the core reading printing one tick lower than expected at 3.6%. The AUD and short sovereign yields are down substantially on the news.

Ultimately the great hope for overcoming the deleterious effects of geopolitical shocks on living standards is through strong productivity growth at home. AI holds the prospect of being something of a white knight on that score, but outside the US productivity growth remains anaemic and the link between huge AI CAPEX and improved productivity outcomes does not seem to be established in the top level data just yet.

While the promise is certainly there, the investment needs to result in inputs being converted to outputs more efficiently, and the physical materials needed for the fixed capital need to actually be available. In an age where semiconductor supply chains are being disrupted by energy and trade shocks, and important base materials like aluminium, copper, helium and nickel are physically constrained in the Strait of Hormuz shock (to say nothing of ongoing labour constraints!), converting those ‘circle of life’ CAPEX numbers into actual production might be easier said than done.

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/29/2026 - 10:30

BMW Targets 8,000 Job Cuts With New Voluntary Severance Package

BMW shares in Germany are down 36% so far this year, as the automaker's latest forecast downgrade was described by JPMorgan analyst Jose Asumendi as a "wake-up call for the auto industry."

The outlook for BMW continues to deteriorate, with Bloomberg reporting that the automaker will begin a sweeping workforce restructuring in Germany this fall.

Voluntary departures in Germany are expected to account for most of the roughly 8,000 positions BMW plans to eliminate globally, equivalent to about 5% of its workforce. The restructuring is aimed at reducing costs and strengthening the automaker's ability to compete with fast-growing Chinese rivals.

The report continued:

The offer will go out to staff in research, development, planning and other corporate functions, with factory floor workers not eligible, said the people, who asked not to be identified as the plans aren't public. BMW also is looking to streamline its management ranks in the coming months as part of the broader cuts, they said. 

The job reduction program will begin in October and run through 2027, with BMW anticipating a boost in profitability in 2028.

Shares in Frankfurt are marginally higher on the news after tumbling 36% so far this year, but they have stabilized over the last month around 60 euros per share.

This comes after last month's profit warning, in which a JPM analyst described the downgrade as a major "wake-up call for the auto industry" and warned that the German luxury automaker must address its compact-segment product strategy in China, where European premium automakers have been priced out of the market.

Asumendi called the downgrade a "radical earnings cut" but noted that BMW is generally executing well. He believes the automaker will likely take one-time charges to downsize its global production footprint, with a particular focus on Europe.

The restructuring comes as BMW contends with sliding sales in China and intensifying competition from EV manufacturers led by BYD, both in Europe and abroad. These pressures reflect a broader deterioration across Europe's auto industry, where soft demand, elevated production costs, and mounting Chinese competition continue to squeeze profitability.

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/29/2026 - 10:15

EssilorLuxottica's AI Smart Glasses Revenue Nearly Doubles On Ray-Ban, Oakley Demand

EssilorLuxottica shares rose as much as 4.5% in Paris before reversing course and falling 2%. The eyewear maker reported better-than-expected first-half profit margins, while revenue from its AI smart glasses nearly doubled in the second quarter, easing investor concerns over rising competition and component costs.

The Ray-Ban owner, which partners with Meta on smart glasses, reported a 13% increase in first-half adjusted profit to 1.9 billion euros, while its operating margin reached 18.6%, above the analyst estimate of 16.3%. Second-quarter revenue rose 8.7% at constant exchange rates to 7.69 billion euros, missing expectations due to weaker growth in North America.

Wall Street analysts called management's tone on the earnings call earlier today "optimistic" and "encouraging."

CFO Stefano Grassi noted, "There are good reasons to see a good trajectory on gross margin also for the second half." He told analysts about a pipeline of AI smart glasses set to hit the market.

EssilorLuxottica did not disclose second-quarter AI-glasses volumes, though management said growth was driven by its Ray-Ban and Oakley models developed with Meta.

EssilorLuxottica's smart glasses have emerged as early consumer-market winners by combining familiar eyewear frame designs with affordable pricing, unlike devices such as Apple's Vision Pro and other products priced above $2,000, even up to $3,000. The apparent sweet spot for mass-market adoption remains around $300 to $500 per unit.

Shares in Paris are down around 2%, after reversing gains of 4.5%. Year to date, shares have cratered, down about 39%. The reason for this is the durability of profit margins amid rising costs and intensifying competition. Analysts have also cited tensions among the heirs of founder Leonardo Del Vecchio as an additional overhang on the shares.

Here's what desks on Wall Street are saying (courtesy of Bloomberg):

Bernstein (market perform)

• The management's tone on the earnings call was "optimistic" regarding 2H, acknowledging harder comparatives, "but teasing a diversified innovation pipeline," analyst Luca Solca writes in a note
• The "positive outlook across both top line and margins reinforced on the call could bring the name back on investors' radars," even if the latest results seem "priced in"

Morgan Stanley (overweight)

• The 1H results are a "small relief following a series of downwards earnings revisions and the pressure on shares in recent months," analyst Grace Smalley writes in a note
• The management's tone on the call was "encouraging," outlining several growth drivers in 2H "while acknowledging the tougher comparison base, as well as pointing to ongoing solid cost control"

Citi (buy)

• The 2Q/1H results are mixed, "with worse sales but better margins," analyst Veronika Dubajova writes in a note
• The current valuation, which sits at the low-end of EssilorLuxottica's historical range, "already appears to discount forward sales growth"
• The better-than-expected adjusted Ebit "should diminish recent fears around margin progression/EPS momentum"

CFRA (buy)

• The results were mixed, with a slight miss on revenue and a beat on profit, analyst Wan Nurhayati says
• "We continue to see the strong adoption of AI glasses and the growth opportunity from Stellest supporting top-line momentum"
• However, Nurhayati believes the "rapid shift toward lower margin AI glasses remains a near-term margin headwind and could continue to weigh on the premium valuation the company has historically enjoyed"

Jefferies (buy)

• Analyst Julien Dormois says revenue in constant currency shows "resilient, high growth, even if slightly below cons"" * Additionally, Dormois views the first-half margin as "reassuring"
• "With the shares halving from Nov peak (margin reset, misplaced compet. fears, corp. gov.), we see a very compelling risk/reward into a quality growth compounder," the analyst writes

Bloomberg Intelligence

• "EssilorLuxottica's 1H adjusted Ebit margin rebound to 18.6%, a 233-bp beat, on price-mix and belated AI-glasses operating- leverage gains makes its 2H gross-margin expansion target feasible even without the net US tariff benefit, which added 60 bps in 1H," analyst Diana Gomes writes

Apple and Alphabet are also planning to enter the AI glasses market, with Meta currently in the lead.

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/29/2026 - 09:45

Idaho's High Desert Becomes Hot Spot For Nuclear Power Revolution

Authored by John Haughey via The Epoch Times,

History was made with the flip of a switch at 12:30 a.m. on June 4, under partly cloudy skies and a waning three-quarter moon in Idaho's Arco Desert, when a prototype reactor sustained a nuclear chain reaction, becoming the first new design to achieve "criticality," or viability, in the United States since 1973.

In that midnight milestone's wake, the future is following fast. Since Antares Nuclear's Mark-0 design was validated in early June, three other novel reactor designs have met the U.S. Department of Energy's criticality requirements and, according to Energy Secretary Chris Wright. Up to four more could do so by year's end.

While technologies, fuels, and applications vary, these prototypes share common traits. All are far smaller than the conventional reactors with massive cement cooling towers, and all are designed to be mass-produced, portable, and scalable. Several can fit in the bed of a pickup truck.

Most microreactor designs could be built in factories and shipped in cargo containers to locations around the world. Idaho National Laboratory

The nuclear energy surge is a convergence of rare bipartisan accord with stymied science and spiking electricity demand, spurred by power-hungry data centers and the integration of artificial intelligence and quantum computing into an electron-dependent world where the average U.S. home has 21 digital devices.

High-tech investors and hyperscalers are financing much of the innovation and pressuring the energy department to accelerate approvals to bring these new energy sources to market.

Not next decade.

Next year.

First-Movers

Antares Nuclear is one of 10 companies selected by the Department of Energy in August 2025 to develop "first mover" innovations under a reactor pilot program authorized by President Donald Trump. In four executive orders in May 2025, the president called for licensing 10 new reactors by 2030 and quadrupling the nation's nuclear energy capacity by 2050.

The United States maintains the world's largest nuclear power industry, with 96 reactors across 28 states that produce nearly 20 percent of the nation's electricity, according to the U.S. Energy Information Association.

But since 1990, while 18 reactors have been retired, only two new ones have been built in the United States, largely because of costs, long timelines, regulatory entanglements, and public perception after the Three Mile Island, Chernobyl, and Fukushima nuclear accidents.

Although deployments have languished for a half-century, nuclear technologies have advanced, with U.S. companies developing more than 30 new reactor designs. Meanwhile, successive administrations and Congress - in scarce consensus - have been deregulating and subsidizing the industry since 2024's ADVANCE Act adoption to meet a projected 25 percent increase in electricity demand by 2030 and more than 70 percent increase by 2050.

Criticality, a no-power proofing of theoretical physics, is generally the first step in being licensed by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission to produce and sell commercial nuclear reactors.

Trump's executive orders overhaul the commission and streamline approvals, meaning new reactors could be for sale within six months to a year, Wright said on June 25 in Idaho Falls after meeting with developers at the Idaho National Laboratory.

Qualifying for the pilot reactor program launched by Trump's executive orders, or for enrollment in the energy department's newly established nuclear launchpad program, gives developers access to the Idaho National Laboratory, an 890-square-mile sagebrush sprawl in the Arco Desert, where atomic power was first used to create electricity in 1951. Specifically, they gain access to the Materials and Fuels Complex, a 40-minute drive from the lab's Idaho Falls administrative offices.

Prototypes by Aalo Atomics and Valar Atomics also reached criticality under the pilot reactor program, while Deployable Energy did so as a launchpad participant. On criticality's "cusp" at the national lab and elsewhere are micro-reactors from Radiant Industries, Natura Resources, Last Energy, Atomic Alchemy, Deep Fission, and Oklo.

Antares Nuclear's Mark-O

When Antares's Mark-0 achieved functional viability on June 4, it became the 53rd reactor to reach criticality at the Idaho National Lab and the first non-lightwater reactor licensed in the United States since 1973.

The Torrance, California startup's shipping container-sized prototype, which utilizes sodium heat pipes for cooling without relying on external power, could produce up to 20 megawatts of electricity, or enough to power 15,000 homes, by 2027.

At the national lab on June 25, Wright told Antares CEO Jordan Bramble that seeing a structure where "wetted" sodium waste was treated transformed into a reactor test site in less than a year had made him so happy, he cried.

"I got emotional - emotional! - today to see the humans, the reactors, the steel, the action that's happening" at the lab site, he said. "To think on June 4 - less than 13 months after [Trump's executive orders] - that reactor ran critical [because] a three-year-old company said, 'Yes, we can. Yes, we will,' and leaned in."

Fueled by high-assay low-enriched uranium, Antares's prototype is in a 26-foot-deep, 26-foot-wide chamber and "over-shielded" under 11 cement slabs collectively weighing more than 200 tons.

Antares Communications Manager Kayla Haas said that when the company was founded in 2023, there were "three big things on the agenda": in 2026, secure Mark-0 criticality; in 2027, "produce electricity" with the next-generation Mark-1; and in 2028, "deploy reactors on customer sites."

"We're super excited to have checked the 2026 box," Haas said. "Now, we are shifting focus to our Mark-1 electricity-producing reactor that we'll test in 2027."

Backed by more than $140 million in private financing, Antares Nuclear owns a 322,000-square-foot plant in Southern California and offices in Aiken, South Carolina, and Idaho Falls. Its Mark-0 and Mark-1 reactors are ideally designed for defense and space applications.

The June 4 demonstration was conducted in partnership with Department of Defense nuclear fuels contractor BWX Technologies Inc. and observed by Pentagon officials. Antares is under contract to deliver micro-reactors to the U.S. Air Force's Joint Base San Antonio in 2027 and to the U.S. Army by September 2028.

Since 2025, Antares Nuclear has also been testing a 100-kilowatt reactor - enough juice for 65 homes - at NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center in Redstone Arsenal, Alabama, for potential use in space travel and as a moon base power plant.

The prototypes all share the same "base design," Antares Licensing Director Jason Andrus said, but testing in California, Idaho, and Alabama allows the company to integrate "learnings" into evolving designs and "do really kind of nerdy, nukey things."

Valar Atomics' Ward 250

Valar Atomics became the second to gain criticality, when its Ward 250 high-temperature, helium-cooled reactor sustained generation on June 18 at the San Rafael Energy Lab in Emery County, Utah. It is the only one of the four not to do so at the Idaho lab.

The El Segundo, California-based developer's 75-foot-long, 15-foot-wide micro-reactor could generate up to five megawatts of electricity, enough to power 5,000 homes, and be portable by truck, train, or plane. In February, the 120-ton Ward 250 was transported from California to Utah in a U.S. Air Force C-17.

Ward 250 is designed to be planted up to 80 feet underground and, because it is fueled by TRISO - a uranium fuel designed to prevent radioactive release - there's no need for large cement containment structures.

Valar followed criticality by using Ward 250 on July 1 to briefly power a website hosted on an Nvidia Blackwell AI chip. Nvidia is building a data center complex near Valar's factory in Orangeville, Utah, and has agreed to purchase up to 30 megawatts of electricity from the company by decade's end.

Deployable Energy's Unity

Houston-headquartered Deployable Energy's Unity reactor was the third new design, and second at the Idaho National Lab, to attain criticality in June, when it achieved operability at 11:55 p.m. on June 30.

Deployable founder and CEO Bobby Gallagher hauled Unity's reactor core, designed to fit in a 20-foot shipping container, from Texas to Idaho in a Ford F-150 pickup bed, proving its portability just by showing up at the lab.

The high-temperature, water-moderated, helium-cooled one-megawatt reactor - generating enough to power around 800 homes - is fueled with standard low enriched uranium, was built in partnership with Texas A&M University, and has drawn more than $10 billion in letter-of-interest queries "ranging from data centers to remote island community power," it maintains.

While one megawatt is not a lot of electricity, isolated communities, emergency responders, military installations, and industrial developers will see value in a reactor that can be "dropped in wherever you need it and left alone," Deployable Energy co-founder and Chief Commercial Officer Sanjay Mukhi said in late June, four days before Unity achieved criticality.

Deployable, which was only incorporated in 2025, was banking on that prospect when it was accepted into the reactor pilot program and arrived at the Idaho National Lab "150 days ago," he said, building a 340,000-square-foot structure dubbed "Studio 54," because it houses the 54th new reactor type to reach criticality at the lab.

Mukhi said one-megawatt reactors can be "scaled out" to meet tailored needs.

"We can deploy many at a time to meet the actual power requirements of specific sites," he said. "If you require 122 megawatts, instead of getting a 350-megawatt unit, you could actually get the exact power requirement and a little bit more."

The reactor, anchored in a 19-foot-deep basement chamber, looks like a laundry wash drum serrated by 696 holes where uranium rods will radiate heat in 63 gallons of water.

"It doesn't require a lot of water," Deployable co-founder and Chief Operating Officer Lance Maul said. "That's one of the other benefits to being able to go into different markets that have water restrictions."

Deployable's goal, he said, is to produce 1,000 reactors a year by decade's end and "by the mid-30s, 10,000 a year."

"That's the idea," Mukhi said. "From order to delivery, six months."

Aalo Atomics' Aalo-X

After Aalo Atomics of Austin, Texas, was selected to participate in the pilot program at the lab, the three-year-old startup's 200 employees built a 3,600-square-foot structure in 36 days. Then, over the next 40 days, they installed a 10-megawatt test reactor, which reached criticality 20 minutes into July 4.

"From founding to fission in under three years," Aalo spokesperson Ashley Cohen said. "One of the fastest reactor builds in modern American history."

It was the second-fastest build in history for a first-of-a-kind reactor, clarified Aalo co-founder and CEO Matt Lozak, and the swiftest in 80 years since Clementine, the world's first plutonium-fueled fast-neutron reactor, achieved criticality in November1946.

The test reactor is a full-scale prototype of its 20-foot-tall, 10-foot-wide Aalo-X micro-reactor - small enough to haul on a tractor trailer flatbed, big enough to power 10,000 homes.

Lozak projects that Aalo will be selling its next-generation 10-megawatt, 4.95 percent LEU-fueled Apollo X reactors at "commercial-scale" in 2027, and assembling its Aalo Pod power plants, which can house up to five 10-megawatt reactors, for commercial buyers by 2029 at its 40,000-square-foot Texas factory.

The Aalo Pod power plant will be mobile, won't need refurbishment for 40 years, and will be purpose-built to specifications - attributes the company says make it ideal for military, disaster response, and industrial applications.

Aalo co-founder and President Yasir Arafat noted that the Department of Energy has approved the company's request to build a data center on its national lab site.

"These things go hand-in-hand," he said. "AI is so power-hungry, and there's no better way to power AI than nuclear."

During a tour of the company's 2-acre site at the national lab, Lozak and Arafat said reaching criticality by July 4 would prove concepts key to their commercial model.

Mission accomplished.

"We proved all the major hard questions," Lozak said. "Can you construct? Yes. Can you build your reactor in a factory? Yes. We built our reactor in four weeks, did 80 percent of the installation within the first week in the factory, and shipped it across the country in two days."

Radiant Nuclear's Kaleidos

El Segundo, California-based Radiant Nuclear's one-megawatt Kaleidos reactor, designed to fit inside a 20-foot shipping container, is expected to reach criticality and then follow up with a 150-hour demonstration of sustained "hands off" operability this summer.

Kaleidos is installed in the Idaho lab's Demonstration of Microreactor Experiments (DOME), a 100-foot-tall structure on the Materials and Fuels Complex, where micro-reactors up to 20 megawatts were tested in the 1960s and '70s.

Radiant Nuclear President Tori Shivanandan said in late June that the company was engaged in "rigorous component testing on every single part of this system" it built inside the DOME.

The reactor's helium circulator, for instance, has received more than 150 start-stops "as though [it] just lost power" so the company can "understand that data prior to the system even shipping," she said. "We're still 'iterating' on the product."

There are five phases to reactor testing, Shivanandan said, "and we pause, we review the data, between each one."

Some Kaleidos components have undergone extensive testing at university labs nationwide, "but this will be the first time they're receiving dose under the full system, and so we want to again see 150 hours of what we call 'hands-off operations,' and monitor the environment, see what's going on," Shivanandan said.

The shuttered Three Mile Island nuclear power plant stands in the middle of the Susquehanna River near Middletown, Pa., on Oct. 10, 2024. Since 1990, only two new nuclear reactors have been built in the United States, in large part because of public perception after nuclear accidents such as the 1979 partial meltdown at the plant. Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images Tyler Durden Wed, 07/29/2026 - 09:30

Watch: Fauci's Invokes 5th, Lawyer Forcibly Removed From Hearing

Update (0920ET): As Dr. Anthony Fauci continues to invoke his 5th Amendment right not to incriminate himself - something we were all told he couldn't do due to his pardon by former President Joe Biden. 

The hearing kicked off at 8:30 a.m. EDT with Fauci appearing under subpoena from Chairman Rand Paul (R-KY). 

• Fauci’s opening statement: He invoked the Fifth Amendment and announced he would refuse to answer questions. He said it “pains” him to do so given his long record of cooperating with Congress, but he was following his attorneys’ advice. He accused Paul of an “obvious obsession” / “unhinged” campaign aimed at getting him “behind bars,” and said the hearing’s real purpose was to trap him into making statements that could support prosecution (especially perjury). He also criticized the recent public release of his personal diary entries as an effort to embarrass and intimidate him.
• Paul’s opening remarks: The chairman framed the session around COVID origins, NIH-funded research (including gain-of-function issues), inconsistencies between Fauci’s public statements and private diary notes, and accountability for the pandemic response. He noted that a presidential pardon does not rewrite history or prevent Congress from examining the facts.
• Questioning: As Paul (and possibly other senators) and others posed questions about origins, research funding, past testimony, and the diary, Fauci repeatedly responded along the lines of: “On the advice of counsel, I respectfully decline to answer based upon my rights under the Fifth Amendment of the Constitution.”

Paul went ballistic on Fauci's lawyer for speaking when he was not recognized, and then had security remove him.

Fauci lawyer is removed- round of applause pic.twitter.com/sZroNpcAAs

— Karli Bonne’ 🇺🇸 (@KarluskaP) July 29, 2026

Watch:

* * *

Dr. Anthony Fauci is testifying today before the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committe, after Chairman Sen. Rand Paul compelled him via subpoena. 

Fauci, the former longtime director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) at NIH (1984–2022) and a leading public face of the U.S. COVID-19 response, is appearing as the sole witness.

So far: 

•  Fauci is invoking his 5th amendment right not to incriminate himself by answers Paul's questions - something legal scholars widely expressed he could not do leading up to the hearing. 

"Although it pains me to do so, because of the respect I have for the Legislative Branch for government, and my decades-long record of cooperating with Congress, under the advice of my attorneys, I will invoke my right under the Fifth Amendment of the Constitution to refrain from answering your questions," Fauci, 85, repeated over and over.

Paul reminded Fauci that it's illegal "to refuse to answer any questions pertinent to the question under inquiry."

🚨 JUST IN: Sen. Rand Paul just told Dr. Fauci to his face it's ILLEGAL to incessantly plead the 5th Amendment and refusing to answer relevant questions when testifying before the Senate under subpoena

PROSECUTE NOW!

PAUL: "Section 192 of Title II of the U.S. Code...that… pic.twitter.com/uXE2jLNNeE

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) July 29, 2026

It's too bad Fauci is refusing to answer questions:

pic.twitter.com/XgNdlsUIHL

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) July 29, 2026

This marks another round of congressional scrutiny of Fauci since his 2022 retirement, centered on long-running criticisms of pandemic-era decisions and messaging. Key focuses include:

• COVID-19 origins: Whether NIH-funded research (including work connected to labs in China) played any role, versus the prevailing scientific view of a natural zoonotic spillover (likely amplified at the Wuhan wildlife market). Paul has long pressed lab-leak possibilities and alleged inconsistencies in Fauci’s public statements.
• Recently released diary entries: Paul made public more than 1,000–1,500 pages of Fauci’s personal notes from the pandemic years. Critics highlight passages they say differ from Fauci’s public comments (e.g., early notes on the virus and the market); Fauci’s attorneys have called the related allegations baseless.
• Broader issues of public-health messaging, school closures, gain-of-function research debates, and Fauci’s interactions with officials across the Trump and Biden administrations.

House Oversight Chairman James Comer and others have noted that a prior presidential pardon does not cover potential false statements in today’s testimony. Fauci has previously rejected claims of lying or cover-ups as preposterous; scientists and supporters have defended him ahead of the session.

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/29/2026 - 09:00

DOJ And Trump Ask Supreme Court To Review $83.3 Million Carroll Verdict

Authored by Matthew Vadum via The Epoch Times,

The U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) asked the U.S. Supreme Court on July 28 to intervene in the defamation dispute between President Donald Trump and writer E. Jean Carroll.

The DOJ is arguing in the petition in United States v. Carroll that the federal government - not Trump personally - should be the defendant in the case that led to an $83.3 million verdict against Trump.

At the same time, Trump’s private attorneys filed a petition with the high court in the case of Trump v. Carroll, asking the justices to review the same verdict, largely on grounds of presidential immunity.

The DOJ’s petition, a copy of which was obtained by The Epoch Times, focuses on the federal Westfall Act, which shields federal employees from personal liability for common law tort lawsuits arising from their government employment.

Common law refers to the body of law developed over centuries by court rulings, as opposed to statutes passed by legislatures. A tort is a wrongful act or infringement of a right that gives rise to civil liability.

When the U.S. attorney general certifies that a federal employee—including a president—was acting in an official capacity, the United States is usually substituted as the defendant, and the individual ends up being dismissed from the lawsuit.

The $83.3 million verdict arose from statements Trump made in mid-2019 while he was president, in which he denied Carroll’s allegation that he sexually assaulted her in the mid-1990s. Trump denied the claim in an official White House statement and again when speaking to reporters—statements the jury found defamatory.

In 2020, then-Attorney General William Barr, who served in Trump’s Cabinet, certified under the Westfall Act that Trump’s statements were within the scope of his official duties. As a result, the case, which had been pending in New York state court, was transferred to federal court. Then in 2023, then-Attorney General Merrick Garland, who served in President Joe Biden’s Cabinet, took the unusual step of withdrawing the certification, the petition said.

This allowed the lawsuit to move forward against Trump personally, after which the jury found for Carroll, rendering the $83.3 million verdict.

While an appeal was pending, Trump was reelected, and in April 2025, his attorney general appointee, Pam Bondi, recertified Trump’s conduct and made a motion to substitute the United States as the defendant in the case. The Second Circuit blocked Bondi’s recertification, an action the DOJ argues the court was not entitled to take.

The DOJ also argues the Second Circuit misinterpreted the Westfall Act.

“This petition presents the question whether the Westfall Act contains an implicit timing restriction barring the Attorney General’s posttrial recertification. Such a restriction does not exist,” the petition said of Bondi’s action.

If the United States replaces Trump as the defendant, Carroll’s defamation claim would almost certainly fail. The Federal Tort Claims Act, which covers lawsuits against the government, specifically excludes defamation claims.

The DOJ urged the Supreme Court to take the case, arguing it raises potentially significant institutional stakes.

Trump may have to pay almost $100 million in damages and interest “for issuing a press release and answering reporters’ questions, from the White House, defending against attacks on his fitness for office,” the petition said.

Trump’s petition in Trump v. Carroll argues that the Second Circuit was wrong to treat presidential immunity like an ordinary legal defense that can be lost if not raised in time, and that the appeals court didn’t actually decide whether immunity protected Trump’s 2019 statements.

If the Second Circuit’s “mistreatment of Presidential immunity and the Westfall Act” are not corrected, there will be reverberations far beyond this case, as the threat of a single judgment for damages based on official acts will prevent presidents from “fearlessly” executing their duties, the petition said.

The $83.3 million verdict is separate from a prior $5 million civil verdict Carroll secured in 2023. In that case, a jury found Trump liable for sexually abusing Carroll in the 1990s and for defaming her again in 2022 when he was out of office.

The Supreme Court recently declined to take up Trump’s challenge to the $5 million verdict, but Trump has asked the court to reconsider its ruling.

It is unclear whether the Supreme Court will take up the two new petitions.

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/29/2026 - 08:35

Futures Rise Despite Oil Spike And Ongoing Korean Collapse, Ahead Of Fed, Meta And Microsoft

US equity futures are higher, overlooking both tech-led declines in Asia which saw the Kospi crash as much as 13% and trigger a second consecutive 20 minute market-wide halt, and the 5% jump in oil prices which has pushed Brent over $88. As of 7:30am ET,  S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 contracts are each up 0.2%, reversing sharp overnight losses, with tech flipping from laggard to leader and reversing (for now) a chip rout overnight which saw SK Hynix plunge 7.6% after tumbling 17% the session prior. With hyperscaler earnings today (MSFT and META), JPMorgan's trading desk - which has incorrectly called the bottom in the chip rout almost every day in the past month - asks if "perhaps we finally establish a floor within the Tech trade."  Semis are higher pre-market with Mag7 mixed. Overnight, Korea / Semis took another leg lower with JPM’s Mixo Das seeing the levered ETF unwind in its 9th inning (90% complete). Defensives are leading Cyclicals (ex-Tech & Energy) with the Energy bid returning on news of renewed attacks in the Middle East. In fact, oil is trading 5% higher at session highs (above $83 for WTI and above $88 for Brent) which is pushing bond yields up 1-2bp as the curve flattens, USD is weaker. Today's macro focus is on the Fed (read out preview here). Most banks (but not Citadel) expect the Fed to hold with two or more hawkish dissents; the market is pricing a 32% chance of a hike.

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks were mostly, if modestly, higher: (Alphabet +0.6%, Amazon +0.1%, Apple +0.2%, Meta +0.3%, Microsoft +0.2%, Nvidia +0.1%, Tesla +0.2%)

• Avantor (AVTR) rises 4% after the life-sciences company reported adjusted Ebitda and net sales for the second quarter that beat the average analyst estimate. The company also boosted its adjusted profit guidance for the full year.
• Bloom Energy (BE) jumps 8% after the fuel-cell maker posted earnings that were more than double expectations and raised full-year guidance for the second consecutive quarter, a sign of rampant demand from data centers.
• Caterpillar (CAT) falls 4% after Baird cut its recommendation to neutral, citing a growing trend of state and local government actions targeting data centers, which have become a key growth driver for the industrial giant.
• Ford (F) rises 5% after the automaker raised its profit outlook for the second time this year as consumers continue to snap up the automaker’s high-margin sutility vehicles.
• Garmin (GRMN) climbs 7% after the maker of GPS smartwatches boosted its pro forma earnings per share guidance for the full year.
• GE Healthcare (GEHC) climbs 11% after the maker of X-ray equipment reported adjusted earnings per share for the second quarter that beat the average analyst estimate. The firm also posted a booking ratio that was ahead of expectations.
• GlobalFoundries (GFS) gains 7% after the semiconductor contract manufacturing and design company signed a letter of intent with the US Department of Commerce.
• Humana (HUM) drops 7% after the insurer maintained its yearly profit guidance despite a strong second quarter.
• Johnson Controls International (JCI) rises 5% after after the HVAC equipment maker boosted its adjusted earnings per share forecast for the full year
• KLA Corp. (KLAC) falls 8% after the semiconductor capital equipment company reported fourth-quarter results that Morgan Stanley called “uninspiring.”
• Lemonade (LMND) falls 12% after the insurance company reported less customers for the second quarter than analysts expected. It also said Nick Stead, the company’s senior vice president finance, will replace Tim Bixby as CFO effective Jan. 1.
• Manhattan Associates (MANH) rises 11% after the software company reported second-quarter results that beat expectations, prompting an analyst upgrade.
• O-I Glass (OI) is down 13% after the manufacturer of packaging products reported adjusted earnings per share for the second quarter that missed the average analyst estimate.
• Procter & Gamble (PG) slips 3% after giving a conservative outlook for its current fiscal year, highlighting the challenges the maker of Downy fabric softener faces as consumers retrench.
• Seagate Technology (STX) gains 5% after the computer hardware and storage company reported fourth-quarter results that beat expectations and gave a revenue forecast that is ahead of the consensus estimate.
• Teradyne (TER) gains 7% after the semiconductor manufacturing company reported second-quarter results that beat expectations and it gave a third-quarter forecast that is much stronger than expected.
• Vertiv (VRT) falls 14% after the power equipment company’s net sales missed estimates.

In other corporate news, Cigna must defend against most claims of a proposed class action alleging the health insurer disclosed the personal information of patients to third parties in violation of federal and state privacy laws. Visa said it’s taking a $563 million charge tied to job cuts affecting about 7% of the workforce, part of an effect to operate more efficiently and focus on its biggest opportunities for growth. Canada plans to scrap a levy on entertainment companies including Netflix and Walt Disney, according to a court filing, after pushback from US officials and Hollywood studios

Futures are tentatively higher, ignoring a continued tech rout in Korea, and surging oil, but as Bloomberg notes, price action at this stage of the session likely offers little insight into how equities will trade over the next 24 hours, with the FOMC policy announcement and Meta and Microsoft earnings later. Stripping away the ongoing meltdown in the chip/memory bubble, the equal-weight version of the S&P 500 reached another record high in Tuesday’s cash session and themes of rotation, divergence and dispersion continue. Of course, nobody cares about that; instead what people do care about is that the high beta momentum index, which we warned at the start of the month would have a terrible July...

High Beta Momentum is disintegrating in July. Every July https://t.co/7jnnW8v7Yt pic.twitter.com/lc2IhHG7yQ

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) July 2, 2026

... had a terrible July, and is on track for the biggest monthly drop on record in data going back to 1999, eclipsing the dot-com era, while an equal-weight version of the Nasdaq 100 is trailing the S&P 500 Equal Weight Index by the most in two decades of data.

As always, AI remains in the spotlight, with SK Hynix shares crashing - again - after forecasting a record outlay of at least $31 billion for capital spending this year, a jump of around 50% year-on-year, adding to concerns that tech companies are overinvesting in AI.  The pace of capex growth mirrors a similar trajectory at rival Micron, and with hyperscalers capex’ bills projected to exceed a $1 trillion next year, some analysts estimate memory could account for more than a third of that. 

Update: SK Hynix last 3 days "price discovery"

7/27: +2.13%
7/28: -16.16%
7/29: -7.61% https://t.co/sEikDsiNIo

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) July 29, 2026

The biggest loser from the latest SK Lonix rout was, of course, Korea's Kospi which slid as much as 12.6%, triggering a circuit breaker for a second straight day, and is on course for a record monthly loss of ~35%. And just when you thought it couldn't get any more farcical, South Korea’s finance minister apologized on Wednesday after retail investors racked up heavy losses from leveraged bets on stocks, following rule changes earlier this year. The May 27 introduction of single-stock leveraged Exchange Traded Funds has seen Korean retail investors pile in with net purchases of 14 trillion won ($9.7 billion), compared with roughly 2 trillion won by foreign investors, according to KB Financial Group. But the speculative trading boom that helped fuel one of the world’s hottest equity markets has resulted in those investors nursing catastrophic losses, leaving millions liquidated after margin calls, that have seen thousands owing money to their banks after being wiped out. 

And while we wait to find out just how many millions of broke and margin called Koreans will participate in the next season of Squid Games, we have a Fed decision later today where traders are eyeing the possibility of a surprise hike as patience with high inflation wears thin, and Chair Warsh’s avoidance of the past practice of giving signals on the future rates path. JPMorgan' Market Intel analysis shows a 28% probability of the central bank keeping rates unchanged, while sounding accommodative on the inflation outlook. This would trigger gains of 0.5% to 1% in the S&P 500 Index, the team said (full analysis here).

“It’s really rare to have the market split just hours ahead of a Fed decision,” said Amélie Derambure, a senior multi-asset portfolio manager at Amundi. “That means some investors will necessarily be hurt. A hike could have harsh consequences on equities if it announces a fresh cycle.”

Earnings from Meta and Microsoft arrive as the AI trade is faltering, with traders questioning whether the vast and often debt-fueled spending behind the buildout of the technology can deliver adequate returns. “I hope that Meta and Microsoft can confirm the capex spree in the industry and reassure the market about semiconductors,” said Fares Hendi, a portfolio manager at Société de Gestion Prévoir in Paris.

In other AI related news, the OpenAI models that hacked the startup Hugging Face this month also gained access to a customer account on the cloud platform Modal and used it to launch attacks, underscoring the broad scope of the incident. Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg said the US administration should not block Chinese models to gain an edge in the AI arms race, in an interview with the Financial Times. It follows Nvidia CEO defending open-weight AI models earlier on Tuesday. And Moonshot AI secured a $35 billion valuation after raising $3.5 billion in a round of financing, exceeding its initial target of $1 billion to $2 billion.

Elsewhere, Washington tightened curbs on some foreign-made robots and inverters, vital components of solar-powered electricity, in a sweeping move that risks widening its tech confrontation with Beijing less than two months before a meeting between the countries’ leaders.

In the latest Iran escalation news, Brent jumped to session highs after Iran fired pre-emptively on American forces overnight and the US and Saudi Arabia struck Tehran-backed militias in Iraq, ending a days-long pause in hostilities. Elsewhere, Reuters reported that Iran is expected to receive within weeks a first shipment out of up to 400 Chinese-made shoulder-fired air-defense missile launchers, as it rebuilds its defenses amid war with the United States. 

Initial gains in European stocks faltered with the Stoxx 600 down 0.2%, following a flurry of earnings as Hermes weighs after missing expectations for its key leather goods unit. Real estate and retail sectors fall the most and energy and miners are the biggest gainers. Here are some of the biggest movers on Wednesday:

• Deutsche Bank shares jumped 6% after the German lender reported strong earnings supported by a fixed-income trading beat and announced a share buyback of €500 million.
• Reckitt shares jump as much as 7.4% after the maker of Dettol and Durex delivered better like-for-like sales growth than expected in the second quarter, with the core business accelerating more than anticipated, according to analysts at Barclays.
• Kering shares gain as much as 12% after the luxury goods maker reported better-than-expected revenue at Gucci in the second quarter.
• UBS shares gained 3.7% after the Swiss lender announced a new $3 billion share buyback program and reported second-quarter earnings that analysts said were strong.
• Sopra Steria shares jump as much as 17% after the IT firm boosted its organic revenue forecast for the full year.
• Porsche shares rise as much as 4.8% after the German carmaker posted what analysts called a strong set of results, including an operating profit beat driven by sales of its 911 model.
• BASF shares rise as much as 4.3% after the chemicals company announced a new €1 billion buyback program and beat EPS expectations.
• Electrolux shares gain as much as 23% after the Swedish home appliance manufacturer’s second-quarter earnings exceeded estimates and the company lowered its capex forecast.
• RWE advances as much as 4.4%, the most since mid-March, after delivering preliminary second-quarter results ahead of expectations and lifting its guidance for both 2026 and 2027.
• Endesa shares gain 2.4% after the Spanish electricity company reported net income for the first half that beat the average analyst estimate.
• Hermes shares fall 8.1% as the French maker of the Birkin bag missed analyst expectations for its key leather goods unit and was punished by investors.
• DWS shares plunge as much as 8.9% after the asset management firm posted pretax profits below expectations in the second quarter as heavier costs weighed, with analysts noting the strong share price performance leading into the print.
• CaixaBank shares fell as much as 6.7% after the Spanish bank’s second-quarter results missed expectations for net interest income.
• Auto1 shares fall as much as 16% after the German used-car retailer reported second-quarter results that Morgan Stanley analysts said leave it needing a stronger second half to achieve management’s full-year goal.

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks declined as a selloff in heavyweight chipmakers deepened, and oil prices rebounded following a fresh round of fighting across the Middle East. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index lost 0.7%, with shares of SK Hynix plunging almost 10% to be among the biggest drags. The firm’s quarterly profit fell short of lofty estimates despite surging sixfold, and its plan to spend at least $31 billion on capital expenditures intensified existing market worries that companies are overinvesting in AI capacity. Samsung, which is due to report results Thursday, also saw its stock slump more than 5%. TSMC slid 3.5%. South Korea’s Kospi index swung wildly again, tumbling 13% intraday before closing 6% lower. The declines in tech-heavy indexes in Korea, Taiwan and Japan outweighed gains in places like India and some Southeast Asian markets, which have relatively less exposure to the AI theme.

“The deleveraging and selloff in Korea have increasingly taken on a life of their own,” said Rajeev De Mello, global macro portfolio manager at Gama Asset Management. “Concerns about excessive optimism around AI initially triggered the correction in semiconductor stocks, but the latest acceleration lower looks less driven by fundamentals and more by positioning, forced selling and investor psychology.”

Sentiment was also cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve’s rate decision later on Wednesday. While the central bank is expected to hold, market participants are eyeing the possibility of a surprise hike as patience with high inflation wears thin. “Investors have re-focused on the downside surprise to earnings, and also recognized the constraint of the Fed decision,” said Damien Boey, portfolio strategist at Wilson Asset Management. A gauge of Chinese stocks listed in Hong Kong jumped more than 2% to be the top gainer in Asia on Wednesday. Still, the MSCI Asia Pacific was on course for its lowest close since April 23, having slumped 3.4% in the previous session, when it also entered a technical correction.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is fractionally weaker, while the Aussie dollar is the standout laggard following soft CPI data.

In rates, firmer crude prices have weighed on global fixed income markets, with US yields up around 1bp across the curve and those of EGBs up slightly more.

In commodities, oil is back on the rise, with Brent crude futures up 3.7% as fighting erupted once again in the Middle East. Spot gold and silver are posting respective gains of 0.2% and 1.3%. Bitcoin adds 0.9%. 

Looking to the very busy day ahead, the main event will be the Fed’s policy decision. The attention will then shift to the earnings from Microsoft and Meta after the US close. Before that, we also have Lam Research, ARM, L’Oreal, Hermes and Airbus. 

Market Snapshot

Top Overnight News

• Brent rose after Iran fired on American forces overnight and the US and Saudi Arabia struck Tehran-backed militias in Iraq, ending a days-long pause in hostilities. BBG
• Iran is expected to receive within weeks a first shipment out of up to 400 Chinese-made shoulder-fired air-defense missile launchers, three sources familiar with the deal told Reuters, as it rebuilds its defenses amid war with the United States. BBG
• Iran rejected a proposal to evenly divide control of the Strait of Hormuz, jeopardizing hopes that Tehran and Washington would quickly resume negotiations to end the war. WSJ
• South Korea will hold an emergency meeting Wednesday evening to discuss the market situation after a stocks rout that has wiped billions of dollars off investors’ holdings. BBG
• SK Hynix shares slumped after the company missed lofty expectations while committing at least $31 billion in capex this year. BBG
• The US plans to end a subsidy program that helped hold down costs for Medicare drug plans. BBG
• The Senate voted 86-12 to advance a bill that would empower Trump to impose tariffs on major buyers of Russian energy, as well as Iran, with a final vote possible later this week. BBG
• Wall Street banks have demanded more collateral from hedge funds in recent weeks as a rout in AI stocks accelerates and triggers heavy losses across several popular strategies. FT
• Moonshot secured a $35 billion valuation after raising a larger-than-anticipated $3.5 billion in a just-closed round of financing, people familiar said. BBG
• US President Trump posted "Senator Johnson is working hard with Senate Republican leadership to adopt a budget resolution before the August recess. This is the first step towards getting as much of the Save America Act as possible in the budget bill..". Full post: "Senator Ron Johnson is working hard with Senate Republican Leadership to adopt a Budget Resolution before the August recess. This is the first step towards getting as much of THE SAVE AMERICA ACT as possible in a Budget Bill, funding our Troops, and helping our Farmers. I am calling on the Senate to get this critical first step done before the August recess. This Resolution can be adopted at a simple Majority threshold. GET IT DONE! Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DONALD J. TRUMP".
• Majority of US Senate votes to confirm Trump nominee Jay Clayton to be the Director of National Intelligence.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were choppy with mixed, two-way trade seen as bourses initially began on the front foot as an initial tech rebound helped the region shrug off the geopolitical risks following the Iran attack on a US base in Jordan, although the tech-related gains were eventually wiped out. ASX 200 bucked the trend amid outperformance in defensives and as participants reflected on Rio Tinto's earnings and softer-than-expected inflation data, which saw an unwinding of RBA rate hike bets. Nikkei 225 initially rallied amid early tech momentum and reports the government will finalise a food sales tax cut next month, but then slipped into the red as tech stocks reversed course. KOSPI suffered at the whim of tech fluctuations, with stocks initially buoyed following mixed results from SK Hynix, which beat on Q2 net, but missed on oper. profit and revenue, stoking concerns of lofty expectations, despite oper. profit jumping 557%. However, the index then slumped and eventually triggered circuit breakers. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were mixed, with the Hang Seng driven by Chinese automakers/EV names, while the mainland is subdued amid ongoing trade-related frictions.

Top Asian News

• South Korean Lawmaker said Finance Minister, BoK Governor and Financial regulatory Chiefs to meet on Thursday afternoon.
• Japan's Chief Cabinet Secretary said Govt. will not pre-determine whether to use reserve funds for earthquake relief.
• Japanese PM Takaichi plans to cut food sales tax to 1% for two years starting April 2027, while government will finalise plan in August.

European Bourses began the session on a softer footing but remain relatively resilient to the firmer oil prices and prior APAC weakness, with earnings also providing somewhat of a cushion/impetus in the absence of macro updates. The IBEX 35 (-1.6%) underperforms following CaixaBank results, while the FTSE 100 (+0.1%) outperforms on earnings, including Rio Tinto, and a strong Glencore production update, whilst heavyweights BP and Shell cheer the higher oil prices. Sectors are mixed, with resilience across the board despite energy strength and prior APAC weakness, while sentiment remains capped by ongoing memory concerns and China competition following KOSPI volatility. Movers: SK Hynix (-9%) weighs on sentiment after earnings miss lofty expectations. In Europe, Kering (+12%), Gerresheimer (+5%), Eni (+4%), Deutsche Bank (+4%), BASF (+4%), Rio Tinto (+4%), UBS (+3%), Glencore (+3%) and Standard Chartered (+3%) gain after earnings. To the downside, ASM International (-8%), Hermes (-8%), CaixaBank (-6%), Aberdeen (-5%), Remy Cointreau (-4%) and EssilorLuxottica (-2%).

Top European News

• UK Net Lending to Individuals MoM (Jun) M/M 9.5B vs. Exp. 5.5B (Prev. 4.6B).
• UK Mortgage Lending (Jun) 7.73B vs. Exp. 3.95B (Prev. 2.89B).
• UK Mortgage Approvals (Jun) 58.20K vs. Exp. 56K (Prev. 56.21K).
• UK M4 Money Supply MoM (Jun) M/M 0.8% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. 0.1%).
• UK BoE Consumer Credit (Jun) 1.807B vs. Exp. 1.7B (Prev. 1.662B).
• Italian Industrial Sales YoY (May) Y/Y 5.3% (Prev. 3.2%).
• Italian Industrial Sales MoM (May) M/M 0.60% (Prev. 0.3%).

FX

• DXY is relatively uneventful within a narrow band ahead of the FOMC, despite the overnight geopolitical escalation which saw crude gap higher. The index trades within a 101.23-101.49 range, holding broadly flat as markets priced around a 36% probability of a hike, with focus on the Fed decision and Chair Warsh’s presser.
• JPY modestly firmer overnight on potential haven demand following geopolitical tensions and APAC equity weakness, though USD/JPY came off best levels and now trades around the middle of a 163.28-163.88 range, below the prior session’s trough of 163.64.
• EUR holds a mild upward bias amid a subdued Dollar, with EUR/USD just below 1.1400 and trading within a 1.1382-1.1404 range. Newsflow is light from the bloc, with a smaller-than-expected softening in German import prices and a modest increase in the ECB Wage Tracker failing to move the needle.
• GBP trades with a modest upside bias in rangebound conditions, oscillating around the 1.3300 mark within a 1.3277-1.3307 range. Focus turns to the BoE on Thursday, where a hold is expected, with attention on the vote split and guidance and then the press conference.
• Antipodeans are mixed, with AUD under pressure after softer-than-expected inflation data prompted Westpac to shift its RBA view to a prolonged hold (vs prev. view of an August hike). AUD/USD trades at the bottom of a 0.6943-0.6979 range. NZD is relatively cushioned by AUD/NZD downside but remains soft overall, with NZD/USD in a 0.5775-0.5794 range.

Fixed Income

• USTs are modestly softer, down by a handful of ticks, as geopolitical escalation and firmer energy prices weigh on the space. The contract remains comfortably above recent lows at 108-15+ and 108-12+, with focus turning to the FOMC where a hold is expected, though risks are tilted hawkish amid the recent rise in energy, and with markets implying a 30-35% chance of a hike.
• Bund are under pressure, down around 15 ticks, with only a fleeting lift seen on softer German import prices (6.1% Y/Y vs prev. 6.8%). The benchmark trades just above a 124.95 low, holding above Tuesday’s 124.93 base. No move was seen to the 2036 Bund auction, which was moderately weak but showed slightly better underlying demand compared to the prior.
• Gilts are lower, opening down 16 ticks before extending losses to an 87.08 base, taking out Tuesday’s trough but remaining above Monday’s 86.83 low. Price action is largely driven by the broader energy-led move, with limited UK-specific catalysts.
• Germany sold EUR 4.5bln (exp. 6bln) 3.00% 2036 Bund: b/c 1.1x (prev. 1.03x), average yield 3.13% (prev. 3.09%) & retention 25.05% (prev. 35%).

Commodities

• Crude futures are firmer after gapping higher overnight on escalating geopolitics, with Iran striking a US base in Jordan and subsequent US-Saudi strikes on Iranian-backed militia. WTI Sept’26 and Brent Oct’26 hit highs of USD 83.30/bbl and USD 85.63/bbl respectively, before waning as the US had not yet officially retaliated to the Jordan strike. Dutch TTF found resistance at EUR 59.50/MWh, then support at EUR 58/MWh, stabilising around EUR 58.50/MWh. Prices rose further after sources said Yemen's Houthis are considering imposing fees on commercial ships transiting the southern Red Sea.
• Precious metals are firmer but to varying degrees, supported by geopolitically driven haven demand amid a flat/subdued Dollar, though upside is capped ahead of the FOMC. Spot gold trades within a USD 4,010-4,047/oz range, while spot silver posts larger gains but remains off the USD 58.53/oz peak, within a USD 56.85-58.23/oz range.
• Base metals are mixed to subdued as geopolitical tensions weigh on the growth outlook. 3M LME copper trades within a narrow USD 13,584.00-13,690.90/t range, while iron ore prices waned overnight amid weak steel demand concerns.
• Egypt aims to drill 160 new oil and gas wells with investments of USD 7.2bln, according to Al Arabiya.
• US invests USD 1bln to combat New World Screwworm outbreak,a ccording to Agricultural Secretary Rollins.
• US Private Inventory Data (bbls): Crude +3.3mln (exp. -1.4mln), Distillates +0.4mln (exp. +0.6mln), Gasoline +0.9mln (exp. -1.2mln), Cushing -0.3mln.

Trade/Tariffs

• US tariffs are sending some firms back to China, NYT writes.
• UK Foreign Secretary Miliband will play a “greater role” in the UK's Brexit reset talks than previous foreign secretaries, the FCDO told POLITICO.
• China Commerce Minister held a call with the UK Trade Secretary and said China is willing to strengthen cooperation in service trade, green transition and renewable energy. said:. Highly concerned about nationalisation of British steel and urged the UK to abide by relevant international rules. Urged favourable business environment for Chinese enterprises in the UK.
• China's MOFCOM said regarding US putting Chinese research institutions on sanctions list, that it is aware of the situation and strongly dissatisfied and firmly opposes this. said:. China urges the US to stop smearing Chinese research institutions, correct its approach, and provide fair, impartial, non‑discriminatory treatment. China will take necessary measures to safeguard the legitimate rights of its research institutions and to protect normal scientific exchanges and cooperation.
• Trump administration bans foreign made robots and power inverters amid fears of Chinese influence, according to POLITICO.

Geopolitical - Iran

• US CENTCOM said US and Saudi forces strike Iran-backed terrorist sites in Iraq.
• Iranian state TV cites an unnamed military source stating that Iran denies any link to projectiles fired from other countries at targets in Saudi Arabia.
• Chinese Foreign Ministry denies reported that Iran will received Chinese-made man-portable air defence systems in the coming weeks.
• Iran official said Oman proposal for Hormuz Strait joint regional management is to fail.
• Iran will get Chinese shoulder launched missile systems in weeks, according to Reuters.
• US President Trump said in a tele-rally that Iran wants to make a deal so badly, adds we'll get Iran to sign on the dotted line and we'll get the war over with.
• US CENTCOM said at 17.45EDT, IRGC forces launch multiple ballistic missiles from Iran and all Iranian missiles were effectively intercepted.
• US official said Iran launched missiles at a US base in Jordan, but noted missiles were intercepted, according to Axios.
• Iran considered retaliatory strike on Ukrainian seaport, although a flurry of diplomacy has eased tensions, according to NYT citing officials.
• US official said Iran is over reaching with demands that Oman, US and the international community are rightly rejecting on Strait of Hormuz. Deal being discussed is a coordination deal, there are no tolls and no fees.
• Iraq PM's planned visit to Saudi Arabia tomorrow has been cancelled, Iraqi government source tells Al-Araby.
• A senior Iranian official said Tehran has rejected Oman's proposal for regional joint management of the Strait of Hormuz as unworkable, reported suggest.
• Iraqi sources said US and Saudi Arabia targeted a mosque and water purification plant in Baghdad.
• IRGC noted that 3 tankers were hit and seized in the Hormuz Strait, adds US interference in the region will not go unanswered.
• Explosions were heard in south Baghdad, while reported noted US and Saudi strike in Kirkuk and Salah Al-Din.
• Israeli PM Netanyahu said meeting with Trump is one of the best we've had.
• IRGC confirmed that they fired ballistic missiles at the US Air Base and US Military Central Command Center in Jordan.
• US President Trump posted that he had a very good meeting with Israeli PM Netanyahu and many important subjects were discussed.
• Explosions reported in Al-Suwayrah, Wasit province South of Baghdad.
• Source circulates 'footage of a direct hit on Muwaffaq Al Salti Air Base in Jordan'.
• IRIB reported explosions in Jordanian airspace and that US base in Jordan was possibly targeted.
• Iranian media sources report explosions in US base in Jordan due to Iranian missile attack.
• Three Japanese-linked vessels have exited the Strait of Hormuz via Iran's designated route, Kyodo reported.
• An Israeli military source said Defence Minister Katz disclosed operational details about the takeoff of US fighter jets from Israel to carry out strikes on Iran, Al Hadath reported.
• Several loud explosions are being reported in Jordan, according to Nour News.
• Sources said Yemen's Houthis are considering imposing fees on commercial ships transiting the southern Red Sea.

Geopolitical - Ukraine

• Ukrainian President Zelensky said forces struck Russian oil refinery in the Perm region, export terminal and military plant in Rostov region.
• Russian forces hit two vessels carrying weapons to Ukrainian ports near Odesa, according to Russia's defence ministry.
• Ukrainian President Zelensky said had a very good meeting with US President Trump and that Trump accepted that he'll give Ukraine licenses for Patriot missiles.
• US President Trump posted that it was a great honour to meet with Ukrainian President Zelensky and that the meeting went well with many things discussed.
• Large majority of US Senate voted to advance Russian energy sanctions, with the bill targeting Russian officials and oil-dependent nations.

US Event Calendar 

• 7:00 am: Jul 24 MBA Mortgage Applications, prior 1.9%
• 2:00 pm: Jul 29 FOMC Rate Decision Upper Bound est. 3.75%, Lower Bound est. 3.5%

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

As we head towards a highly anticipated Fed decision this evening, over the past 24 hours markets were again caught in the crosswinds of volatile oil prices and an ongoing chip rout. A continued decline in oil prices had won out yesterday, with a -4.83% decline in Brent crude helping the equal weighted S&P 500 (+1.14%) to a new record high and the regular S&P 500 (+0.21%) also advancing even as the Philly semiconductor index fell -4.49%.

However, sentiment has soured overnight as the US said that it intercepted an Iranian attack against its bases in the Middle East, ending a pause in the fighting that had seen Brent crude decline from above $100/bbl last Thursday to only $84.09/bbl at yesterday’s close, marking its sharpest three-day decline (-16.5%) since April 2020. Iran’s IRIB News reported that missiles were fired in response to “aggressive US actions”. This comes as the US and Saudi Arabia carried out strikes on Iran-backed militants in Iraq in response to recent drone strikes. IRIB also reported that the IRGC targeted three tankers in the Strait of Hormuz “moving along an unsafe and illegal route”. With the news raising the risk of a return to a full war, Brent crude is trading about +4% higher as I type.

Together with a continued sell-off in chip stocks, this has weighed on the mood in Asian markets this morning. The KOSPI (-8.65%) is seeing another dramatic sell-off, triggering a circuit breaker for the second time in two days after tumbling by -11.0% yesterday. A reassessment in Korea’s AI-driven valuations has been boosted by results from semiconductor heavyweight SK Hynix, which is down -16.5% as its +557% surge in quarterly profits failed to meet elevated market expectations. Shares in Samsung, which reports tomorrow, are down -11.0%. The Nikkei (-2.29%) is also extending Tuesday’s decline, while in mainland China the CSI 300 (-0.24%) and Shanghai Composite (-0.50%) are posting more modest declines. In contrast, the Hang Seng (+1.34%) is outperforming the broader regional trend, while the S&P/ASX 200 (+1.10%) is advancing after softer-than-expected inflation data eased concerns about further RBA tightening (details below). Equity futures are also losing ground, with those on the S&P 500 (-0.20%), NASDAQ 100 (-0.62%) and STOXX 50 (-0.58%) all lower.

All that leaves a volatile backdrop ahead of today’s FOMC decision, which is the most finely poised in years in terms of market pricing. With a 32% chance of a rate hike today priced as of last night, this is the most uncertain that the market has been on whether the Fed will change rates going into a meeting since December 2018, when the eventual 25bps rate hike was about 65% priced the day before. We’ve seen considerable volatility in the July hike pricing over the past couple of weeks, falling as low as 10% in mid-July following the soft June US CPI print but rising to as high as 38% on Monday. So with Chair Warsh shying away from policy guidance, we’ve seen one regime shift compared to the past few years when markets received a steer from officials’ commentary or via the financial press.

In terms of today’s decision, our US economists expect the Fed to leave rates unchanged but see the risks of a hike as significant with the renewed escalation in the Middle East complicating the inflation outlook. If the Fed holds rates steady, they expect at least a couple of dissents in favour of a hike.  

Prior to the overnight moves, a continued fall in oil prices had dominated yesterday’s market action, as more positive signals on Iran negotiations stabilized inflation concerns. Trump said in an interview with Fox News that the US had a “strong position” and that Iran has essentially agreed to not have a nuclear weapon but would now need to make it formal. Markets reacted positively to his comments as well as reports of continued talks between Iran and Oman over control of the Strait of Hormuz, with front-month Brent crude down -4.83% and 6-month Brent sliding by a sizeable -3.60%.

That helped markets to dial back near-term inflation pricing. The 1 yr US inflation swap (-5.3bps) retreated to 1.88%, while the 1yr Euro inflation swap continued to post bigger declines (-13.8bps to 2.28%). In turn, Treasury yields pulled back across the curve with 2yr yield down -3.5bps to 4.29%, while the 10yr yield fell -4.3bps to 4.61%, which was actually its biggest daily decline in over a month. And this time real yields also fell, with the 10yr (-3.5bps to 2.41%) real yield retreating from Monday’s post-2023 high.
The decline in oil and rates also helped support equities, with the S&P 500 closing +0.21% higher. And the broader market mood was more clearly positive, with the equal-weighted version of the S&P (+1.14%) posting its best day in over a month and hitting a new record high. This came amid a broad rotation into non-tech and defensive sectors, though it was partially offset by continued losses for chipmakers. A -4.49% decline for the Philly semiconductor index left the gauge -24.6% below its June 22 high, though it is still up +55.8% YTD. Yesterday’s decline also left the NASDAQ 100 (-0.98%) just half a percent from technical correction territory. But it was not all bad news for tech yesterday, with Apple (+0.94%) exceeding the $5trn market cap for the first time, though it ended the session just below it at $4.995trn. The company is set to report its earnings tomorrow along with Amazon, after reports from Microsoft and Meta this evening.

In Europe, the market mood was positive yesterday, with the Stoxx 600 up +0.35% as the CAC 40 (+0.61%) and FTSE 100 (+0.83%) and DAX (+0.41%) all saw decent gains. Optimism over lower oil-driven inflation also boosted sovereign bonds, with yields on 10yr gilts (-5.2bps), OAT (-4.0bps), and bunds (-2.9bps) all heading lower. Outperformance of French assets was helped by an improved consumer confidence reading for July (86 vs 84 prev., 85 exp.) but this is still below the level that prevailed before the Iran war.

Ahead of the Fed decision, we also had some data releases out in the US. US July consumer confidence saw an unexpected decline to 90.8 (vs 92.4 expected), as the present situation component fell to its lowest level since early 2021. More positively, US house prices increased in May in both the FHFA (+0.3% m/m vs +0.1% m/m exp.) and S&P Case-Shiller (+0.15% vs 0.00% expected) indices, though this improvement comes after house price growth fell to effectively zero during the Feb-Apr period. As I discuss in my latest note on money and credit yesterday, housing looks more vulnerable to the recent move higher in yields. The report (see here) also dives into what the credit cycle suggests for policy direction of the G4 central banks as well as in China, where the Politburo meeting will be in focus later this week.

In data out this morning, Australia’s consumer price index (CPI) rose +0.6% qoq in Q2 (vs. +0.7% expected and +1.4% in Q1), supported by easing fuel prices. Annual inflation moderated from +4.0% to +3.8% yoy. Annual core inflation edged up from +3.5% to +3.6%, but remained below the consensus estimate of +3.7%, reducing the urgency for additional interest rate hikes after the RBA already raised rates three times this year. Following the release, yields on 2yr Aussie government bonds are down -8.3bps to 4.49%, with markets paring back the chance of a rate hike next month to just 2%, from 18% previously. The Australian dollar is down -0.40% against the US dollar.

To the day ahead now, the main event will be the Fed’s policy decision. The attention will then shift to the earnings from Microsoft and Meta after the US close. Before that, we also have Lam Research, ARM, L’Oreal, Hermes and Airbus. Data releases include UK June net consumer credit, M4, Germany June import price index, Italy May industrial sales, Australia June CPI, Sweden Q2 GDP indicator.

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/29/2026 - 08:15

Trump Admin Asks SCOTUS To Revive Mail-In Voting Order Ahead Of Midterms

Authored by AG News Staff via American Greatness,

The Trump administration asked the Supreme Court on Monday to let the president's mail-in voting executive order take effect ahead of the midterms, after a federal appeals court sided with Democrat-led states seeking to keep it blocked just months before Election Day.

Trump signed the order in March, directing the Postal Service to restrict delivery of mail-in ballots in states that refuse to hand over lists of eligible voters. It also orders the Department of Homeland Security and Social Security Administration to compile lists of verified absentee voters for the Postal Service to reference, and threatens to withhold federal funds from states that do not comply, part of a larger effort by the president to tighten a mail voting system he has long argued is vulnerable to abuse.

A federal judge in Massachusetts blocked the order in June, ruling that its timing made it impossible for the Postal Service to propose the rule through proper channels and would deny Congress its required chance to weigh in. The 1st U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals upheld that ruling Saturday, rejecting the administration's appeal and leaving the order blocked in the 23 states and Washington, D.C., that sued to stop it.

In Monday's filing, Solicitor General D. John Sauer argued the injunction improperly impedes the president's authority over the executive branch, noting the Postal Service falls within it despite its independent structure. Sauer warned that further delay could make the order impossible to implement in time for November even if the administration ultimately wins on appeal. "Every day that the agencies are unable to take steps to carry out the Executive Order as to the November 2026 election makes it less likely that they will, as a practical matter, be able to implement any lists or rules that they ultimately finalize, even if they obtain appellate relief," the filing states.

The order is one piece of a larger push by Trump to overhaul election security, an effort that has repeatedly run into resistance from federal judges. Trump has also urged Congress to pass his SAVE America Act, which would restrict mail voting and require identification to cast a ballot, though the legislation has stalled on Capitol Hill despite mounting pressure from the president.

Trump devoted a primetime address earlier this month to laying out his concerns about election interference, releasing declassified documents alongside the speech. Trump used the address to direct federal agencies to investigate a Michigan get-out-the-vote operation and to examine whether intelligence officials withheld information about Chinese efforts to influence the 2020 election.

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/29/2026 - 08:05

Gulf Bond Boom: Record Borrowing Fuels Race To Future-Proof Against Hormuz Shutdown

Gulf monarchies are hitting international debt markets at a record-shattering pace, Bloomberg figures show, amid a conflict-driven rush to harden domestic infrastructure and forge alternative supply corridors that bypass the vulnerable and effectively closed Strait of Hormuz. Added to this, just this month, Red Sea passage has become another problematic area, as the Houthis have targeted several Saudi vessels with missiles and drones.

Regional heavyweights led by the UAE and Saudi Arabia are seeking massive funding for new or expanded deep-water ports along the Red Sea and Gulf of Oman, backed by desert networks and crude oil pipeline bypasses. This modernization will take years, but is being hastened by the urgency of war.

As Bloomberg reports Tuesday, "Borrowers from the United Arab Emirates are tapping global bond markets at a record pace as the Middle East conflict rages, with sales up a third so far in 2026 versus year-ago levels."

Image via Global Capital 

The underlying totals underscore the unprecedented size of the paper issuance:

"Sovereigns and companies from the UAE, a federation of seven emirates, have sold a combined $30.3 billion of dollar- or euro-denominated bonds this year through July 28, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That’s about $3.7 billion above the previous record for this period hit six years ago."

This is consistent with our analysis from April, just a little two months into Trump's Iran "excursion" - as he was calling it at the time, which saw the world's largest bond manager, PIMCO (Pacific Investment Management Co), step in amid the emerging Gulf scramble to find buyers for its bonds.

More broadly among regional Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states, bond sales have exploded to a record $112 billion so far this year, according to Bloomberg data, with government debt desks actively probing international banks for additional leverage.

When the US-Israeli war on Iran originally flared and reached a peak in March and April, regional banks froze fundraising and market participants retreated into defensive capital preservation mode to gauge the economic fallout.

But in the wake of the April 8 ceasefire - which was eventually extended before collapsing by mid-summer, UAE lenders drove the charge to tap global capital markets, with UAE-based institutions claiming five of the eight major capital market transactions completed in Q2.

Chart: Ed Clowes/Semafor, Source: Bloomberg

According to UAE's English-language daily Khaleej Times:

Emirates NBD became the first Gulf lender to tap international capital markets after the outbreak of the conflict, issuing $750 million in additional Tier 1 (AT1) capital on May 1. The offering attracted strong investor demand, with subscriptions reaching three times the amount offered despite ongoing market volatility, according to the bank.

First Abu Dhabi Bank (FAB) emerged as the region’s most active debt issuer during the quarter. In June, the lender completed two senior debt transactions under its $20 billion euro medium-term note programme, including a €750 million ($858.3 million) three-year green bond and a separate $300 million issuance.

The quarter also featured a notable equity transaction from Sharjah Islamic Bank, which raised Dh2.59 billion ($704.8 million) through a rights issue. The bank said the offering was more than 3.2 times oversubscribed, with the Government of Sharjah fully subscribing to its allocation while remaining shares attracted subscriptions exceeding 4.5 times the amount available.

Gulf capitals are looking to ensure in a long-term way that even if regional maritime flashpoints flare up or traditional choke points get closed down, the vital flow of energy exports and trade keeps moving along uninterrupted. This is one of the bigger 'lessons' of this ongoing costly Washington adventurism, given it has been largely Gulf infrastructure that's had to absorb the bulk of Iran's retaliation pain.

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/29/2026 - 07:45

Birkin Bag Maker Plunges Most Since 2010 As Soft China Demand Weighs On Leather Sales

Hermès shares in Paris suffered their steepest intraday decline in nearly 16 years after second-quarter leather goods sales missed estimates among analysts tracked by Bloomberg, reigniting concerns over the luxury group's large exposure to the Chinese market. 

Second-quarter sales in the leather goods division rose 10.2% at constant exchange rates, missing the Bloomberg Consensus estimate of 10.7%. Overall revenue increased 6.7% to about 4.1 billion euros, slightly ahead of estimates, driven by 13.7% growth in the Americas.

Here's a snapshot of 2Q Earnings:

Sales at constant exchange rates +6.7%, estimate +6.51% (Bloomberg Consensus)

• Leather goods sales at constant exchange rates +10.2%, estimate +10.7%
• Watches revenue at constant exchange rates +4.4%, estimate +0.17%
• Perfumes revenue at constant exchange rates -9.5%, estimate -1.47%
• Silk and Textiles revenue at constant exchange rates +12.2%, estimate +7.5%
• Ready-to-Wear and Fashion revenue at constant exchange rates +3.6%, estimate +3.53%
• France revenue at constant exchange rates +6.2%, estimate +3.78%
• Total Europe revenue at constant exchange rates +7.4%, estimate +6.89%
• Japan revenue at constant exchange rates +12.3%, estimate +10.7%
• Asia Pacific revenue at constant exchange rates +2.5%, estimate +3.2%
• Asia revenue at constant exchange rates +4.4%, estimate +4.51% (2 estimates)
• Americas revenue at constant exchange rates +13.7%, estimate +13.9%

UBS analyst Zuzanna Pusz wrote in a note to clients that her initial takeaway from the earnings call was "softer messaging on leather," suggesting management had adopted a more cautious tone toward the key division.

Pusz continued:

Subtle shift in messaging may raise questions on medium-term targets

At the Group level, results were broadly in line with expectations, however one of the key concerns was softness in the Leather Goods division (OSG of +10% vs. cons. & UBSe of +11%). In our view, management's commentary is unlikely to provide much shortterm reassurance. When asked about the MT growth algorithm and prior guidance for FY26 (6-7% volumes + 6% pricing), management stressed that the framework cannot be reduced to a simple combination of volume growth and price/mix, arguing that such an approach would be overly simplistic ignoring the regional pricing and productivity. Although the company reiterated robust demand for its handbags and reaffirmed its ambition to continue expanding volumes, the shift in messaging may be interpreted as a subtle softening of its commitment to previously assumed MT growth targets.

Tourism drag becomes harder to ignore in France

Management reiterated that France remains more exposed to tourism than the rest of Europe, helping explain the weaker performance relative to Europe ex-France. French stores are said to have been affected by lower tourist flows, particularly from the Middle East, which continued to weigh on Parisian locations, with the impact estimated at c.- 1.5ppt to Q2 growth, unchanged from Q1. By contrast, Europe ex-France remained strong, supported by Italy, Northern Europe, Germany, Greece and the UK following its recent space expansion. While local demand in the Middle East remained resilient, trends in concession markets were more mixed. Overall, management's comments suggest tourism, particularly Middle Eastern spending, remains an important swing factor, while growth is increasingly supported by strong local demand in markets such as the US, Japan, Korea and parts of Europe.

There are multiple factors underpinning the strength in margins

One of the key positives from the release was the strength of the EBIT margin, which came in at 41.0% (vs. consensus of 40.4%). While management unsurprisingly refrained from providing near-term guidance, it highlighted healthy product sellthrough rates without any build-up in inventories. The company also pointed to a favourable contribution from FX hedges in H1, while noting that the H2 impact will depend on where exchange rates ultimately settle. In addition, Hermès reiterated its intention to step up investments in communication and marketing initiatives to support customer recruitment, alongside continued expansion of its sales teams in key markets such as the US, Japan and South Korea. On raw material costs and pricing, management indicated that price increases in 2027 are likely to be somewhat lower than those implemented in 2026.

Jefferies analysts led by James Grzinic told clients that "the ongoing lack of growth in China" remains a major concern for the stock. The luxury industry has been under pressure for several years as Chinese consumers dial back on spending, inflation weighs on discretionary demand and conflict in the Gulf region disrupts regional shopping hubs and tourism flows.

China, once a key growth driver for the sector, remains under pressure. Hermès Executive Chairman Axel Dumas said the market is showing signs of stabilizing but has yet to stage a meaningful recovery.

"I see a stabilization of the Chinese market, but I don't see a fundamental rebound yet," Dumas said during the earnings call, adding that Hermès continues to grow in the country, but at a slower pace than in recent years.

The disappointing earnings report sent Hermès shares tumbling as much as 11% in Paris, the steepest intraday decline since Oct. 10, 2010. The stock has fallen to levels last seen in 2023 and has nearly halved since peaking in early 2025.

Here's what other desks on Wall Street are saying (courtesy of Bloomberg):

Citi (neutral)

• Thomas Chauvet says misses in the leather and perfumes divisions offset strong performance in silk & textiles, watches, France and Middle East
• Expects limited changes to FY26 consensus sales and Ebit

Deutsche Bank (buy)

• Adam Cochrane says firm delivered "solid" 2Q performance, which was modestly ahead of expectations
• Adds that "quality of growth was mixed," with Americas particularly strong as well as Japan accelerating, while Europe was softer than expected 
• Highlights rising gross margin helped offset higher operating expenses

Jefferies (buy)

• James Grzinic says "more critical to the debate will be the extent to which the ongoing lack of growth in China may also reflect the group restricting the supply of some products in that market"

RBC (outperform)

• Piral Dadhania notes that, by region, there are "no major surprises with Other less bad than feared"

Sector-wide, the Goldman Sachs European Luxury Index has largely stalled over the past three to four years.

UBS remains "Neutral" on Hermès, with a 1,795-euro 12-month price target.

Professional subscribers can read more on luxury here at our new Marketdesk.ai portal

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/29/2026 - 07:20

US Corn Conditions Suffer Sharpest Deterioration In Three Years, Fueling Food Inflation Fear

Less than a week after we reported that an options whale placed a $20 million bet on corn futures, a new U.S. crop report revealed the sharpest weekly deterioration in conditions in three years.

Bloomberg cites a new USDA report that rated 63% of the U.S. crop as good or excellent, down 4 percentage points from the previous week and below consensus estimates. The decline was due to heat and dryness battering some of the nation's top agricultural growing belts.

US Corn Conditions Slide 4% 🌽

Farmers are saying it’s the largest crisis on the Farm since last week pic.twitter.com/D0iX8PFL93

— GrainStats 🌾 (@GrainStats) July 28, 2026

1YR Net Change Corn Crop Yield Forecasts

The most-active contract gained as much as .9%.

Heat warnings plague parts of Illinois and Missouri, although Corn Belt weather is expected to improve later this week.

Last week, an options trader made a $20 million bet that corn futures will surge to their highest since 2023, as reduced U.S. planting, record exports, and heat-damaged crops tighten the supply outlook. The trade involved 105,000 November $5.50/$6 call spreads, equivalent to more than 500 million bushels.

The Bloomberg Agriculture Spot Index (BCOMAGSP) recently hit a three-year high. This dollar-denominated benchmark tracks 10 major agricultural futures, including Chicago and Kansas City wheat, corn, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, coffee, cocoa, sugar, and cotton.

Read our latest note on BCOMAGSP, where traders are increasingly focused on maritime chokepoint disruptions, El Niño risks, and extreme heat gripping key growing regions across the U.S. and Europe.

Bank of America: The Timing Of The Next Grocery Inflation Surge Revealed By BofA. 

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/29/2026 - 06:55

Britain Backs Ukraine With New Electronic Warfare Cooperation

Via RFE/RL,

• Zelensky met newly appointed British Prime Minister Andy Burnham, who reaffirmed the U.K.'s military support and announced technology sharing for the Stone Cloak electronic warfare system.

• Ukraine and Russia carried out long-range attacks that caused civilian casualties and damage to energy infrastructure on both sides.

• Zelensky is continuing a major diplomatic push with a planned visit to Washington as Ukraine seeks additional military and political support.

President Volodymyr Zelensky met British Prime Minister Andy Burnham on July 27 as he kicked off a key week of talks with officials around the world to bolster Ukraine's defenses amid a rising civilian death toll from Russian air strikes back home.

Zelensky became the first foreign leader hosted by Burnham since he took office one week ago following the resignation of fellow Labour Party member Keir Starmer.

The two leaders met at the Portsmouth Naval Base on England's southern coast as Burnham pledged his country's "unwavering" support for Kyiv as the war with Russia runs well into its fifth year.

Zelensky said being the first foreign leader to meet Burnham was "an important signal of support."

"We discussed our defense – for Ukraine, it is important to have sufficient capabilities to protect lives both in the sky and at sea," Zelensky wrote on social media after the meeting, adding the development of joint defense production was also touched upon.

Burnham and Zelensky were later scheduled to meet some of the 200 Ukrainian military personnel who have been in Britain the past three weeks participating in a maritime security and counter-mine exercise in preparation for potential future Black Sea missions.

'Stone Cloak' System

Burnham announced the sharing of the intellectual property behind Britain’s new Stone Cloak electronic warfare system, enabling Ukraine to produce the technology itself.

The jammers, the size of a tablet computer, can be used to prevent Russian air defenses from tracking and targeting drones when attached to the projectiles, officials said.

Downing Street pointed out that the United Kingdom's support for Ukraine has reached 25 billion pounds ($33 billion) since Russia's full-scale invasion of February 2022, including 16 billion pounds ($21 billion) in direct military assistance.

Following the London visit, Zelensky is scheduled to travel to Washington on July 28 for talks with US President Donald Trump.

Zelensky is also expected to attend the funeral of US Senator Lindsey Graham, who died earlier this month. The Republican lawmaker was a vocal Ukraine supporter and had traveled to Kyiv for meetings with Zelensky days before his death.

Russia, Ukraine Exchange Deadly Strikes

Five people, including a child, were killed and eight injured in a Ukrainian drone attack on Russia's Rostov region, local officials reported on July 27.

Rostov Region Governor Yuri Slyusar said rescuers recovered bodies, two adults and one child, from the rubble of an apartment building hit by a drone, while emergency crews continue recovery operations and provide assistance to victims.

Zelensky, in a post on X, said that Ukraine's long-range strikes hit an export terminal in the Rostov region and oil facilities in the Yaroslavl and Udmurtia regions to reduce Russia's ability to finance the war.

"Last night, our long-range sanctions were effective in the Rostov region. An export terminal approximately 250 kilometers from the front line was hit. Deep strikes also targeted oil facilities in the Yaroslavl region and the Udmurt Republic, which is 1,300 kilometers from Ukraine's state border," Zelenskyy wrote.

Meanwhile, the death toll continued to rise in Ukraine, with the capital, Kyiv, coming under a Russian ballistic missile attack on July 26, authorities said, while other regions suffered air strikes during the day that led to at least six deaths.

In the northern Ukrainian city of Chernihiv, a Russian drone struck a supermarket, killing two people and wounding ‌25, Ukraine's emergency services said.

"This is deliberate Russian terror that has no military justification," Zelensky wrote on Telegram.

Regional Governor Ivan Fedorov said a glide bomb attack killed one person and wounded six in the southern Ukrainian city of Zaporizhzhya, which has been a frequent target of Russian bombardment.

In the frontline city of Slovyansk in Ukraine's Donetsk region, the Naftogaz oil and gas company said two of its employees were killed in a Russian attack while trying to help ‌residents affected by an earlier air strike.

One person was killed, and eight others were injured in a Russian strike on the town of Balakliya in Ukraine's Kharkiv region on July 27, regional authorities reported.

Russia denies targeting civilian areas despite widespread evidence of such attacks that have killed thousands of people since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion.

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/29/2026 - 06:30

Fragile Iran 'Pause' Shattered As US Base In Jordan Comes Under Attack, Oil Soars Summary

• Oil soars on reports of Iran targeting US Jordan base; Iraqi militants attack KSA for 2nd day.
• Hormuz indirect talks continue amid reports of a possible resurrected MoU deal.
• Shipping remains stalled with virtually no tanker traffic through Hormuz.
• Iran insists Hormuz stays closed unless its terms are accepted.
• Houthis escalate attacks, prompting more ships to avoid the Red Sea.

*  *  *

Fresh Unilateral Strikes on Jordan Base; Iraqi Militants Again Target KSA 

Iranian state media in the overnight hours (local) are reporting fresh apparent Iranian missile attacks in Jordan. A "US base in Jordan was possibly targeted" after reports of explosions there, Fars and IRIB report. Tehran officials have insisted they have not requested US talks following the prior nearly two straight weeks of fighting, though a 'pause' took effect last Friday when President Trump ordered a halt to US airstrikes. The day was filled with headline hype of a potential 'resurrected' MoU deal. Once again these 'deal is close' headlines prove misleading and premature. CENTCOM is confirming on the heels of the Iranian media reporting:

• Senior American official: Iran launched missiles toward an American base in Jordan (Axios)
• CENTCOM: IRGC forces launch multiple ballistic missiles from Iran and all Iranian missiles were effectively intercepted

Adding to the uncertainty and jitters of already sensitive global oil, Iraqi militants on Tuesday fired projectiles on Saudi Arabia for a second day, also amid the ongoing missile threat from Yemeni Houthis. According to the Associated Press:

Saudi Arabia said Tuesday that it shot down drones fired by Iran-backed militias in Iraq for a second day, while Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen claimed to have forced a Saudi oil tanker to turn around as part of their self-styled blockade of the kingdom.

The attacks underscored lingering tensions despite a period of calm between the United States and Iran, neither of which has announced attacks for days following weeks of escalation over the Strait of Hormuz.

The Saudi Defense Ministry said in a statement that air defenses intercepted and destroyed several drones that had attempted to target petroleum facilities in the nation’s eastern region. It said the attacks were “once again launched from Iraqi territory and carried out by Iran-affiliated terrorist militias.”

Oil climbing on the headlines of the rare pro-Tehran aggression during a 'pause':

WTI OIL JUMPS 5% AS US INTERCEPTS IRANIAN ATTACK ON ITS TROOPS

Below: unconfirmed initial image circulating...

Preliminary: footage of a direct hit on Muwaffaq Al Salti air base in Jordan. pic.twitter.com/NGi3R0DLkG

— Open Source Intel (@Osint613) July 28, 2026 Shipping Latest: Bab El Mandeb & Hormuz

Iran has reaffirmed that if Oman does not agree to its terms for the Strait of Hormuz, the the vital oil transit waterway will remain closed, per Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister. This also as things are again heating up in the Red Sea region, with the Houthis late Tuesday announcing they've once again targeted a Saudi oil tanker for violating the blockade. Reuters reports:

Yemen’s Houthis claim to have fired ballistic missiles at a Saudi oil tanker, accusing the vessel of violating what they describe as their maritime blockade on Saudi Arabia in the Red Sea and ignoring warning calls.

The Iran-aligned group’s military spokesperson, Yahya Saree, claims the vessel was forced to turn back.

According to separate reporting, China is holding direct negotiations with Yemen's Houthis to ensure safe passage for its ships through the southern Red Sea.

Iran says it hasn't sought US talks in past 16-17 days, reports Irib News

And a US CENTCOM update on its latest figures: it says that as of Tuesday the US military has redirected 18 commercial vessels, disabled two, and boarded another two to "ensure full compliance of the US blockade against Iran." The latest from Netanyahu's meeting with Trump at the White House:

Channel 12 on a senior Israeli official: Netanyahu confirmed to Trump that additional strikes on rehabilitated Iranian nuclear facilities are unavoidable

More vessels reportedly turning away from planned routes after Houthi threats:

Three product tankers loaded at Saudi Arabian Red Sea ports and bound for Asia-Pacific and east Africa have turned north towards the Suez Canal, as Houthi-related threats to shipping prompt charterers to reassess passage through the Bab el-Mandeb strait.

The tankers appear to…

— Giovanni Staunovo🛢 (@staunovo) July 28, 2026 Fox Reports Mediators 'Close' to Resurrecting MoU

Here we go again... despite no evident change in war posturing on either side, and despite shipping traffic still largely at a complete standstill in the Strait of Hormuz, Fox News is out with claims that the failed Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) could be 'resurrected'... bringing us back to the 'deal is close' constant headlines of earlier this summer (though of course the sides were never in reality close - and simply returned to a wider bombing campaign)...

"Mediators of the ongoing conflict in the Middle East believe the U.S. and Iran are close to a deal that would resurrect the failed memorandum of understanding, according to The Times of Israel," Fox writes, based on the earlier Israeli media article. Negotiators from Pakistan, Egypt and Qatar have been haggling over an Oman-proposed Strait of Hormuz management plan. It will involve fee-collection and is backed by the Gulf states, supposedly. The timing of all of this interesting given Trump is currently hosting Netanyahu at the White House. More from Fox:

Iran and Oman — both of which are situated on the Strait of Hormuz — have reportedly signed off on the proposal advanced by the mediators.

The two sources said the White House was waiting to make a decision until after President Donald Trump meets with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Tuesday.

Meanwhile...

JMIC: DATA INDICATES ZERO TANKERS IN EITHER DIRECTION OF HORMUZ

Still, the return to deal 'optimism' has pushed oil prices down further - which is perhaps the entire point of US officials anonymously hyping that a deal is 'close' once again.

And S&P futures briefly reached High of Day on the headline...

Oman's Hormuz Management Proposal

US-Iran attacks have remained paused, and oil prices have extended their declines, as President Trump has claimed Tehran and Washington are now having "very friendly talks" while at the same time suggesting negotiations might not be prolonged.

"We are in very deep talks with Iran. If they don't work out, we will go back to very strong military action," Trump told Axios, as we highlighted previously. But possibly the most promising development in terms of an off-ramp is that Oman has presented Iran with a plan backed by Gulf states to manage the Strait of Hormuz.

This would reportedly include including collecting voluntary fees for using it, ​according to sources who spoke to Reuters Tuesday. The report notes that "The plan could serve as a basis to end the disruption to trade through the strait caused by the ‌U.S.-Israeli war on Iran."

via Reuters

However, this also to some degree represents the stalemated situation going back to square one, given the United States has consistently and vehemently opposed any fees being collected that would go to Iran. An immediate response from Tehran on the proposal has not been forthcoming, and talks could drag on for days related to the Oman plan. Already Tehran is adding some strict conditions regarding frozen or seized Iranian assets abroad, per Bloomberg citing state media:

"Any company or country that receives funds from Iranian assets will not be allowed to pass through the strait," semi-official Tasnim news agency cites a spokesman for Iran’s central military command as saying in response to recent US proposal.

Reuters provides more detail in the following: "The system would be analogous to one in place on Asia's Strait of Malacca, where Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore ask ships to pay voluntary contributions to fund navigation, environmental protection and search-and-rescue operations."

"The Western diplomat compared it to a voluntary carbon tax for flights, where anyone buying a plane ticket can choose to tick a box if they want to pay to offset their emissions," the report adds.

'Glimmer of Hope' Amid Indirect Hormuz Talks

The Wall Street Journal has said this represents a "glimmer of hope" as fighting has halted since last Friday:

A U.S. official and mediators said Iran and Oman were still far apart on some issues, including whether to charge fees for transit. But both sides said there was progress, marking the first glimmer of hope for diplomacy since President Trump ordered a new round of military strikes on Iran more than two weeks ago in response to Tehran firing on commercial vessels in the strait. 

...The goal of the Iran-Oman talks is to agree on which route vessels can take through the 22-mile-wide strait. Conflict erupted earlier this month after the U.S. began guiding ships through the strait by hugging the Omani coast, while Iran wants vessels to cross through its territory. 

In the meantime President Trump had laid out Monday while speaking to reporters aboard Air Force One his view that there's "plenty of time" to deal with Iran and that "we are talking right now.." He laid out that while "there's a good chance that something could happen," it remains that If not, "we go back to doing what we were doing two days ago."

Trump has on Tuesday reiterated to Fox News that Iran understands it will never have a nuclear, and reaffirmed that the two sides are talking.

.@POTUS on Iran's Pickaxe Mountain: "We have the greatest cameras in the world focused on [it]... I know exactly what's going on at Pickaxe, it's not a big problem. We took out their nuclear sites, and we'll have to take out Pickaxe if we don't make a deal. If we don't make a… pic.twitter.com/PMdXaBkDvu

— Rapid Response 47 (@RapidResponse47) July 28, 2026 Jazan Oil Refinery Shut Down for Repairs After Strikes

Over in Saudi Arabia, where missile and drone attacks out of Yemen (and possibly Iraq) over past days have damaged Aramco facilities, one regional media source says that "Saudi Aramco has shut down its Jazan oil refinery after a Houthi missile and drone attack damaged key facilities at the site, according to reports."

"The refinery, which processes 400,000 barrels of crude per day, suffered damage to its Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle (IGCC) complex and tank farm area. Repairs are expected to be completed and operations to resume by Aug. 15, according to a note from consultancy IIR," Turkiye Today adds.

Satellite imagery also shows alleged damage to gas storage tanks at Saudi Arabia's Abqaiq facility, most recently to be hit targeted likely by the Houthis:

🔥 Satellite imagery shows damage to multiple gas storage tanks at Saudi Arabia's Abqaiq (Buqayq) refinery. White and black cooling covers are also visible over two storage tanks to prevent spread.

Explore and Compare: https://t.co/TrYreAAiGB#SaudiArabia #Gas #Oil pic.twitter.com/qxwdaNKaBc

— Soar (@SoarAtlas) July 28, 2026

However, there still no official Saudi confirmation of Abqaiq being struck, but only that it was targeted:

🇸🇦 Contrary to social media reports, no Aramco or SPA statement has confirmed that Abqaiq was hit, quantified damage or alerted of a production halt.

Official Saudi report from the Saudi Press Association (SPA) only said drones “attempted to target oil facilities in Eastern… https://t.co/8wTv1uD6oF

— Drop Site (@DropSiteNews) July 28, 2026

As for the possibility of where things go from here, amid potential escalation which could see the Houthis further target Saudi oil complexes, President Trump had also warned in the aforementioned Fox interview that the US will "take out" Pickaxe Mountain if it doesn’t reach a deal with Iran.

He noted that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu wants the US to stay involved in the Iran war, and the two leaders will meet Tuesday in the late morning hours at the White House.

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/29/2026 - 05:35

Why, Oh Why Do They Do This?

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity News,

Viral footage circulating online shows a British man methodically working his way along the streets of his own city with a wheeled bin and litter picker, clearing the rubbish left by others. He is not being paid and not making a political point. He is simply trying to prevent the area from descending into a tip.

Remarkably, as he works, foreign shopkeepers and residents repeatedly emerge from their premises to instruct him to clear the mess outside their own doors, standing by as he does so.

One older local, taking in the state of the streets, observes that if President Trump were to see them he would declare the place a "shithole."

This is wild

White man in the UK is going around picking up trash to make his city look nicer

A foreigner comes out her shop and tells him to pick up the trash outside her shop

"I don't want to be rude or anything, but maybe instead of telling me to do it...."

Again and again... pic.twitter.com/EtgcRZfvNL

— Wall Street Apes (@WallStreetApes) July 27, 2026

This pattern is expanding everywhere.

In Page Hall, Sheffield, the same individual was filmed over and over dumping household waste on the corner of Bolsover Road. Residents record from behind windows and ask Sheffield City Council how long they are expected to accept it.

Residents in Page Hall, Sheffield, say they're frustrated after repeated fly-tipping by the same culprit on the corner of Bolsover Road.

The resident who shared the footage is calling for action from Sheffield City Council.

Are we expected to just accept this? pic.twitter.com/ErPaS9SmqJ

— Kiera Diss (@KieraDiss) July 26, 2026

In Marseille, a resident filmed the streets after North African arrivals moved in. Garbage was thrown from windows. The neighbourhood was reduced to literal shit. "We never asked for this," he says.

A man in Marseille, France's second largest city, shows the situation in his neighborhood after North Africans started moving in.

"They throw all their garbage out of their windows. We are living in literal shit. We never asked for this."

No one should have to live like this. pic.twitter.com/h50x5Wu8gy

— Dr. Maalouf ? (@realMaalouf) July 25, 2026

In a quiet Birmingham street an asylum seeker was caught emptying bags of rubbish into the road, perhaps to make the area feel more familiar.

?? En un tranquilo barrio de Birmingham, un solicitante de asilo que no come tocino, se encargó de regar toda la basura del vecindario en las calles, y poder sentirse como en casa. ¿Estas son las mieles de la integración cultural que el progresismo nos vendió? pic.twitter.com/szER7spf5Z

— Carlo Martin (@Liberfach0) July 13, 2026

The countryside has not been spared. Hundreds of tonnes of plastic, foam, wood and household waste appeared overnight along the River Cherwell near Kidlington in Oxfordshire. The pile reached 20 feet deep and stretched 500 feet, metres from the A34. Locals called it a catastrophe in a first-world country.

On Bwlch Mountain in the Rhondda a farming family that has worked the land for ninety years found a stream of rubbish cascading down the slope from a lay-by, visible for miles. Household goods, plastic, cardboard. The farmer said it keeps her awake at night.

In Dorset's Holt Heath nature reserve, a Site of Special Scientific Interest, tipper vans dumped at least 20 tonnes of waste earth and debris across National Trust and Forestry England land. Police called the act despicable.

In the Peak District a furious motorist confronted two men caught dumping a sofa in a national park.

Deport them...

Come here and treat our country like a shit-hole...

This is the moment a furious motorist confronts two suspected fly-tippers he caught dumping a sofa in the Peak District National Park... pic.twitter.com/zKhLhdbEyi

— 'Seeing is believing' (@dave24144975) July 19, 2025

The same national park and nearby hills have been left covered in litter, human faeces and abandoned rubbish by day-trippers who treat protected landscapes as free dumps.

Across the Atlantic a Canadian man caught a group of Indians dumping a couch in the forest. He forced them to pick it up and take it to the dump himself.

Canadian man catches a group of Indians dumping a couch in the forest and forces them to pick it up and take it to the dump.

Do you support this patriot? pic.twitter.com/Iz1BltFniX

— Casey Krol (@CaseyKrol) July 27, 2026

In Small Heath, Birmingham, another fly-tipper was filmed in the act.

Small Heath in Birmingham

Another Fly Tipper caught in the act pic.twitter.com/FKmrsdL8Q7

— WeGotitBack ??????????? (@NotFarLeftAtAll) May 15, 2025

In civilised societies, the bin truck comes once a week. Council tips and recycling centres operate. Yet the same people continue throwing rubbish into the streets and rivers.

Why do they insist on doing this when the bin truck literally comes to their house once a week to collect rubbish? pic.twitter.com/Ylk6jd4jkd

— m o d e r n i t y (@ModernityNews) May 4, 2026

This is not a lack of facilities. It is a refusal to use them.

Footage from the countries many of these individuals left behind shows the cultural baseline. In India, tonnes of waste are dumped straight into rivers.

This is in India ??. ????????????
Tonnes of waste was dumped by workers of a town panchayat in a flood river at Thittakudi in Cuddalore district in Tamilnadu. pic.twitter.com/iLa2Se57D6

— Licypriya Kangujam (@LicypriyaK) August 2, 2020

When a tourist in India suggested to a local to pick up dropped litter and put it in a bin, the reply was a flat refusal. The litter stayed exactly where it was.

In Bangladesh a river no longer holds water or fish, only human and animal faecal matter, trash and floating mounds of waste that wash away in floods.

Bangladesh ~ The river no longer holds fish or water, only human/animal fecal matter, trash, and soggy mounds of mystery matter that floats away when a flood comes through. pic.twitter.com/o4jrfNOy0C

— Dane (@UltraDane) October 1, 2024

In Algeria a holiday beach at Oran is filmed as an open-air dump.

Une femme en vacances en Algérie filme une plage à Oran : une décharge à ciel ouvert!

Ça vous dirait de passer les vacances là-bas, voyage offert? pic.twitter.com/jVS9n6GsyB

— ??????? Kim Jong Un (@KimJongUnique) July 27, 2026

In Pakistan entire loads of rubbish are emptied straight into public waterways while the West frets over paper straws.

Congratulations on saving the planet with recycling, turning your AC down, and struggling with paper straws

Meanwhile, in Pakistan...

Writer: Ianpic.twitter.com/qR3u3XRDCh

— Mario Nawfal (@MarioNawfal) July 27, 2026

These people arrive in Britain steadfastly refusing to deviate from the practices of the places they left. They are offered free collection, legal disposal sites and public bins. Many choose instead to tip waste into streets, rivers, mountains and nature reserves.

They show no respect for the environment they now occupy and no regard for the people who have to live with the mess.

That behaviour might be routine in the third-world dumps they came from. It is not routine here. The services exist. The choice is deliberate. The result is Western towns, rivers and countryside being turned into the same wastelands the individuals left behind.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/29/2026 - 05:00

Which Countries Are Best (& Worst) For Women?

Where is the best place in the world to be a woman?

As Visual Capitalist's Srijaa Chatterjee highlights in the following graphic, according to the latest Women, Peace and Security (WPS) Index, the answer remains Northern Europe, where Nordic countries occupy all five of the top positions.

Published by the Georgetown Institute for Women, Peace and Security, the 2025/26 WPS Index ranks 181 countries using 13 indicators spanning women’s inclusion, justice, and security. The results form the basis for this 2026 ranking.

The World’s Best and Worst Countries for Women

The following table ranks countries based on the Women, Peace and Security Index.

Rank Country WPS Index Score 1 🇩🇰 Denmark 0.939 2 🇮🇸 Iceland 0.932 3 🇳🇴 Norway 0.924 3 🇸🇪 Sweden 0.924 5 🇫🇮 Finland 0.921 6 🇱🇺 Luxembourg 0.918 7 🇧🇪 Belgium 0.912 8 🇳🇱 Netherlands 0.905 9 🇦🇹 Austria 0.898 9 🇳🇿 New Zealand 0.898 11 🇦🇺 Australia 0.896 11 🇪🇪 Estonia 0.896 13 🇮🇪 Ireland 0.891 14 🇸🇮 Slovenia 0.889 15 🇱🇹 Lithuania 0.887 16 🇨🇦 Canada 0.885 17 🇱🇻 Latvia 0.884 17 🇸🇬 Singapore 0.884 19 🇨🇭 Switzerland 0.877 20 🇦🇪 United Arab Emirates 0.872 21 🇩🇪 Germany 0.869 22 🇯🇵 Japan 0.866 23 🇫🇷 France 0.864 23 🇬🇧 United Kingdom 0.864 25 🇪🇸 Spain 0.862 26 🇵🇹 Portugal 0.861 27 🇵🇱 Poland 0.854 27 🇹🇼 Taiwan 0.854 29 🇷🇸 Serbia 0.844 30 🇲🇹 Malta 0.841 31 🇺🇸 United States 0.840 32 🇨🇿 Czechia 0.832 32 🇭🇺 Hungary 0.832 34 🇨🇷 Costa Rica 0.824 35 🇺🇾 Uruguay 0.822 36 🇲🇩 Moldova 0.821 37 🇰🇷 South Korea 0.815 38 🇧🇬 Bulgaria 0.814 39 🇮🇹 Italy 0.811 40 🇸🇨 Seychelles 0.810 41 🇭🇰 Hong Kong 0.809 42 🇧🇧 Barbados 0.807 43 🇷🇴 Romania 0.801 44 🇲🇳 Mongolia 0.799 45 🇬🇪 Georgia 0.798 46 🇸🇰 Slovakia 0.797 47 🇦🇷 Argentina 0.791 48 🇭🇷 Croatia 0.788 49 🇬🇩 Grenada 0.787 49 🇲🇰 North Macedonia 0.787 51 🇸🇷 Suriname 0.779 52 🇨🇾 Cyprus 0.770 52 🇬🇾 Guyana 0.770 54 🇵🇾 Paraguay 0.768 55 🇧🇭 Bahrain 0.765 56 🇦🇲 Armenia 0.762 57 🇹🇭 Thailand 0.761 58 🇴🇲 Oman 0.755 59 🇧🇦 Bosnia and Herzegovina 0.753 60 🇬🇷 Greece 0.752 61 🇲🇪 Montenegro 0.743 62 🇨🇻 Cabo Verde 0.741 63 🇧🇾 Belarus 0.739 63 🇨🇱 Chile 0.739 63 🇵🇼 Palau 0.739 63 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia 0.739 67 🇲🇾 Malaysia 0.738 68 🇦🇱 Albania 0.731 68 🇫🇯 Fiji 0.731 70 🇰🇼 Kuwait 0.723 70 🇶🇦 Qatar 0.723 72 🇰🇿 Kazakhstan 0.722 73 🇻🇳 Viet Nam 0.721 74 🇹🇲 Turkmenistan 0.720 75 🇷🇺 Russian Federation 0.718 76 🇵🇷 Puerto Rico 0.707 77 🇱🇰 Sri Lanka 0.706 78 🇲🇻 Maldives 0.704 79 🇯🇲 Jamaica 0.703 80 🇧🇴 Bolivia 0.701 80 🇵🇪 Peru 0.701 82 🇽🇰 Kosovo 0.700 83 🇱🇦 Lao PDR 0.698 84 🇮🇱 Israel 0.697 84 🇰🇬 Kyrgyzstan 0.697 86 🇵🇦 Panama 0.696 87 🇸🇻 El Salvador 0.691 88 🇯🇴 Jordan 0.686 89 🇨🇳 China 0.685 89 🇼🇸 Samoa 0.685 89 🇹🇯 Tajikistan 0.685 89 🇹🇴 Tonga 0.685 89 🇹🇹 Trinidad and Tobago 0.685 94 🇬🇦 Gabon 0.679 94 🇲🇺 Mauritius 0.679 96 🇮🇩 Indonesia 0.678 97 🇩🇴 Dominican Republic 0.675 98 🇺🇿 Uzbekistan 0.674 99 🇧🇹 Bhutan 0.673 100 🇹🇳 Tunisia 0.671 101 🇲🇭 Marshall Islands 0.670 102 🇲🇦 Morocco 0.668 102 🇹🇱 Timor-Leste 0.668 104 🇧🇿 Belize 0.667 104 🇰🇭 Cambodia 0.667 106 🇹🇷 Türkiye 0.664 107 🇳🇮 Nicaragua 0.659 108 🇧🇼 Botswana 0.658 108 🇸🇧 Solomon Islands 0.658 110 🇸🇳 Senegal 0.657 111 🇦🇿 Azerbaijan 0.653 112 🇰🇮 Kiribati 0.652 113 🇫🇲 Federated States of Micronesia 0.648 113 🇿🇦 South Africa 0.648 115 🇻🇺 Vanuatu 0.646 116 🇺🇦 Ukraine 0.645 117 🇬🇭 Ghana 0.639 118 🇻🇪 Venezuela 0.638 119 🇧🇷 Brazil 0.632 120 🇳🇵 Nepal 0.631 121 🇷🇼 Rwanda 0.624 121 🇹🇿 Tanzania 0.624 123 🇩🇿 Algeria 0.621 124 🇸🇹 São Tomé and Príncipe 0.620 125 🇪🇬 Egypt 0.617 126 🇱🇸 Lesotho 0.614 127 🇪🇨 Ecuador 0.612 128 🇮🇷 Iran 0.608 128 🇱🇾 Libya 0.608 128 🇳🇦 Namibia 0.608 131 🇮🇳 India 0.607 131 🇵🇭 Philippines 0.607 133 🇦🇴 Angola 0.601 133 🇸🇱 Sierra Leone 0.601 135 🇰🇲 Comoros 0.590 135 🇿🇼 Zimbabwe 0.590 137 🇨🇮 Côte d'Ivoire 0.589 138 🇧🇯 Benin 0.587 138 🇺🇬 Uganda 0.587 140 🇨🇬 Congo 0.583 141 🇱🇧 Lebanon 0.575 142 🇿🇲 Zambia 0.566 143 🇹🇬 Togo 0.562 144 🇬🇹 Guatemala 0.561 144 🇭🇳 Honduras 0.561 146 🇩🇯 Djibouti 0.560 147 🇲🇽 Mexico 0.558 148 🇸🇿 Eswatini 0.556 149 🇨🇴 Colombia 0.551 150 🇲🇼 Malawi 0.549 151 🇲🇿 Mozambique 0.548 152 🇰🇪 Kenya 0.542 153 🇬🇲 Gambia 0.528 154 🇬🇳 Guinea 0.527 155 🇧🇩 Bangladesh 0.526 156 🇪🇹 Ethiopia 0.516 157 🇱🇷 Liberia 0.512 158 🇮🇶 Iraq 0.510 159 🇬🇼 Guinea-Bissau 0.508 160 🇧🇫 Burkina Faso 0.507 160 🇵🇬 Papua New Guinea 0.507 162 🇳🇬 Nigeria 0.495 163 🇳🇪 Niger 0.492 164 🇲🇱 Mali 0.478 165 🇹🇩 Chad 0.476 166 🇲🇷 Mauritania 0.475 167 🇵🇸 Palestine 0.469 168 🇲🇬 Madagascar 0.466 169 🇵🇰 Pakistan 0.462 170 🇸🇴 Somalia 0.455 171 🇨🇲 Cameroon 0.451 172 🇲🇲 Myanmar 0.442 173 🇸🇸 South Sudan 0.411 174 🇧🇮 Burundi 0.407 175 🇨🇩 Democratic Republic of the Congo 0.405 176 🇭🇹 Haiti 0.399 177 🇸🇩 Sudan 0.397 178 🇸🇾 Syrian Arab Republic 0.364 179 🇨🇫 Central African Republic 0.362 180 🇾🇪 Yemen 0.323 181 🇦🇫 Afghanistan 0.279

The rankings reveal a sharp geographic divide. Northern Europe continues to set the global benchmark for women’s wellbeing, while countries affected by conflict and political instability cluster at the bottom.

Denmark ranks first with a score of 0.939, followed by Iceland, Norway, Sweden, and Finland. Luxembourg, Belgium, the Netherlands, Austria, and New Zealand round out the global top 10. Afghanistan ranks last, with a score less than one-third of Denmark’s.

Why Nordic Countries Continue to Lead

Nordic countries occupy all five of the top positions thanks to consistently strong performance across the index’s three dimensions: inclusion, justice, and security.

Women in these countries generally benefit from high levels of education, workforce participation, legal protection, financial inclusion, and political representation, alongside relatively low rates of violence. Strong public institutions and broad social safety nets also help support gender equality throughout life.

While no country scores a perfect 1.0, the Nordic region remains the global benchmark for women’s wellbeing.

Outside Northern Europe, Australia and New Zealand continue to perform strongly. Costa Rica and Uruguay also enter the top global quintile for the first time, reflecting sustained gains in women’s rights and wellbeing and making them notable standouts in Latin America.

Conflict Remains the Biggest Divider

At the opposite end of the rankings are Afghanistan, Yemen, the Central African Republic, Syria, Sudan, Haiti, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Burundi, South Sudan, and Myanmar. Many of these countries have experienced years of armed conflict, political instability, or humanitarian crises that disproportionately affect women.

More than 70% of women living in the 12 lowest-ranked countries reside within 50 kilometers of armed conflict, exposing them to higher risks of displacement and gender-based violence. Countries with greater exposure to conflict also tend to score worse on access to justice and maternal health.

This aligns with broader research showing that violence against women rises during periods of instability, while fragile institutions often struggle to provide legal protections and support services. According to the World Health Organization, violence against women remains one of the world’s most widespread human rights violations.

Women’s Wellbeing Reflects Broader Society

The WPS Index measures more than gender equality alone. By combining indicators across security, economic inclusion, healthcare, legal rights, and political participation, it provides a broader snapshot of how supportive countries are for women to live, work, and thrive.

Countries that rank highly typically combine economic opportunity, strong legal protections, accessible healthcare, and low levels of violence. Nations facing prolonged instability, by contrast, often struggle across several dimensions at once.

The rankings therefore offer a broader view of social resilience and institutional strength, not just women’s outcomes in isolation.

To explore more global demographic and workforce trends, check out This Map Shows Where Women Work on the Voronoi app.

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/29/2026 - 04:15

'Free Stuff' In Norway Still Costs Half Of Average Pay

Authored by Joakim Book via TheDailyEconomy.org,

Every few years, Americans rediscover Scandinavia. 

Someone visits Norway or Denmark, returns dazzled and envious of parental leave and universal childcare, and asks why America refuses to copy what obviously works. On the day dedicated to celebrating America, Nicholas Kristof, a Pulitzer Prize-winning journalist, wrote for The New York Times that America is so great that, in fact, it should be more like Norway. If American companies can pay high wages and generous benefits to workers there, Kristof observed, they could do so in New York, too.

If only America were willing to embrace a little more social democracy and bigger government, this popular and recurring story goes, perhaps it could enjoy the same prosperity and flourishing that Norway does — and have its population also routinely rank among the happiest on the planet.

I was born and raised in one Nordic country, have worked in another, and for the last six years have lived in a third, so I’m fairly familiar with our way of life. I’ve also spent much time in America, stunned and enamored of the way things are in the vast, diverse, and unruly union of states. Europeans are simultaneously fascinated and bewildered by America. 

Plenty of things are amazing about these United States, and quite a few things awful about the Nordics; I suspect American intellectuals, dreaming about Norway without understanding its nature and tradeoffs, overlook both.

“You Want Security, Health Care and the American Dream? Look to Scandinavia”

Norwegian workers certainly have higher wages than those in many European countries, including those of its fellow Scandinavians. Hotel cleaners, retail clerks, and construction workers often earn salaries that surprise visiting Americans. Thanks to Baumol’s cost disease, decades of well-managed petroleum wealth have pushed up industrial and service wages. 

The first thing an American professional moving to Norway would notice isn’t the generous parental leave, but the great loss of disposable income and material well-being. Norwegians households average 30 percent less disposable income than those the US, and the cost of everyday items is much higher. 

The Scandinavian bargain might look like free services, but it as tradeoff: more public goods, fewer private goods. 

When American politicians or intellectuals promise Nordic welfare states, most people imagine this happening automatically or by taxing the rich, and everybody benefits. That’s not the case. The real Nordic model taxes earners more (45 percent in Denmark, 40 in Norway, 41 in Sweden, compared to 25 percent in the United States) and charging flat value added tax (VAT). Broad welfare states require broad tax bases; Nordic welfare states are financed not by billionaires but by ordinary workers. The “free” benefits are bought with invasive and regressive consumption taxes (up to 25 percent), payroll taxes, and income taxes that reach well that begin after just $10,000 (the first $16,000 is tax free in the US). 

An American professional, pocketing the median earnings of about $65,000, would pay over $17,000 in Norwegian income taxes (compared to about $5,000 per the IRS calculator, naturally subject to state taxes and various deductions), with the employer forced to chip in another $9,200 for the privilege of merely hiring her. From what’s left over, she faces a high cost of living and sales taxes between 11 percent and 25 percent. 

Were she in Sweden, a much poorer country with wages well below Norway’s, our middle-of-the-road American professional would land herself in the top 20 percent of earners — though not yet triggering the top 53 percent (or 64 percent) marginal tax rates.

For the Tax Foundation, Cristina Enach summarized, “In 2024, Denmark’s tax-to-GDP ratio was 45.2 percent, Norway’s was 40.2 percent, and Sweden’s was 41.4 percent. This compares to a ratio of 25.6 percent in the United States.”

Some of that difference is accounted for by healthcare spending (private, not government) and pension contributions (401(k) or other retirement accounts) and other personalized options. The Nordics give you one option: the state.

In return, yes, our hypothetical expat would receive subsidized childcare, education, paid time off, and health care. Those services would be of  dubious quality, with waiting times stretching into months even for life-threatening conditions. For some, that’s a trade worth making, but it’s not obviously superior, as economist Noah Smith concluded in his comparison a few months ago.

Inequality is indeed lower in Norway, where a person in the top 10 percent earns just three times as much as a person in the bottom 10 percent. That means there’s less reason to strive, less room to grow. Looking to the future, investments in growth, employment, and AI-fueled opportunities are far more attractive stateside than in stagnating Scandinavia. Suppressing growth at the top has suppressed everyone’s potential.

The Norwegian Story Isn’t the Nordic Story

The gap between the average person’s wellbeing in America and that of almost all European countries has widened dramatically over the past three decades. In income per capita, the United States has steadily pulled away from Europe over the last thirty years. The United States’ average income now exceeds every EU member except Luxembourg and Ireland. Citizens of fourteen EU nations earn less on average than residents of even the poorest state: Mississippi, and the EU as a whole ranks between Oklahoma and Maine.

Joseph Sternberg’s opinion piece in the Wall Street Journal earlier this year is illustrative: both Americans and Europeans are shocked when they learn how much materially better off America is. “Politically, bliss is ignorance,” concluded Sternberg. “European welfare states, by creating relatively comfortable lives for voters, conceal the full extent of Europe’s prosperity gap.”

Norway is an affluent country by European standards, but only average compared to America as a whole. Rough figures indicate that Americans, on average, enjoy material economic abundance on par with Iceland and Norway, but are 20 percent to 60 percent better off than the other Nordics. (The difference between the economic outliers and the other Nordics is the difference between New York State and Michigan.) While there are nuances in life, politics, and economics between the five Nordic countries, it’s not like the tax rates, labor economics, public schooling, the overall welfare state, or the generosity of parental leave are that different.

It’s no accident that Kristof reported from Norway; had he run this comparison with Sweden or Finland, the economic outcome would have been so unacceptably low that few Americans would be persuaded by the promise. People in the Norwegian and Icelandic success stories are significantly richer than the other Nordics. Even adjusting for purchasing-power-parity numbers via the University of Groningen-Penn World Table data for 2023, Americans are still a comfortable 15-20 percent richer than most Scandinavians.

It’s Impossible Anyway, So Why Are We Dreaming?

The most immediate sticking point to inflated dreams about the Nordics is that nobody has figured out a way to effectively translate and recreate social and economic institutions elsewhere. To say nothing about a population’s values, behaviors, and traditions.

Institutions emerge from particular and path-dependent histories. They’re not IKEA furniture to merely ship across an ocean and assemble at home. Academic or political observers often make the mistake of thinking you can just isolate a few desirable behaviors or economic institutions, retrofit them onto America, and effortlessly create better lives here. 

Plus, America has long tolerated — indeed celebrated — a remarkable degree of eccentricity and ambition. Americans start improbable companies in garages, and they love their “weirdos.” When they do things, they (over)do them properly — SpaceX. College football. Time Square. Las Vegas. Whatever you’re interested in or passionate about, some all-American oddball has built a community for that. It’s a nation of inventors and obsessive animal lovers. They build Burning Man in the desert and whole cities at sea. Their wide-open spaces connect a web of places-as peoples-as-philosophies: Hollywood, elite universities, Silicon Valley and Broadway, Nashville and Detroit, Amish meeting houses and evangelical megachurches, Hindu temples and Highland games from coast to coast. Our great hybrid culture thrives on liberty, not just lower taxes. Our cultural inheritance is the result of having astonishingly many different attempts thrown at the American wall to see what sticks. 

The Nordics don’t have that. With the recent exception of fintech and startup wonders (riding on an early, high-tech boom from the ‘90s), trying new, eccentric things in those cold lands isn’t exactly welcome. The Scandinavian idea of Jantelagen, the expectation that nobody should think themselves special, results in a lack of opportunities and a disregard for novelty that most Americans see as both rude and discouraging. 

The political equilibrium keeping Scandinavia afloat was, until recently, a mostly homogenous population on sparsely populated lands eerily willing to subjugate individual preferences and quirks to common, collective rules. America stands out in the exact opposite way: letting 15 times as many people pursue radically different lifestyles and individual ambitions with cheerful respect, but little regard for whether the neighbors approve. 

Even if it were possible to transplant Norwegian economic and political institutions onto America, how can we be confident we won’t have a Swedish-level economic debacle instead of the wealthy, comfortable Norway a social reformer might dream of?

We can admire and learn from Scandinavian countries using the “Nordic Model,” which have achieved robust social programs without sacrificing too much in the way of economic prosperity. That balance is fragile, and might not work forever: immigration troubles, stagnating growth, and an overbearing regulatory state are exposing the cracks.  

Scandinavia has built wildly successful societies for a few million very similar-minded people. But the United States has built something more impressive: a vast, messy republic of economic and social flourishing where hundreds of millions of people peacefully pursue wildly different visions of a good life.

Becoming more like Norway means becoming less American, with less of the opportunity, ingenuity, and the entrepreneurship that made America great. 

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/29/2026 - 03:30

Russia Answers Drone Attacks With War On Ukrainian Ports, Maritime Shipping

The Russian Defense Ministry (MoD) has an 'answer' to Ukraine's recent long-range drone attacks, which have wreaked havoc on oil production and most recently online retailers and manufacturing. Ukraine has also been attacking Russian ships elsewhere in the Black Sea as well as Sea of Azov.

The MoD has announced a fresh wave of strikes targeting multiple Ukrainian port installations and Black Sea shipping targets, which represents a sharp escalation in Moscow's ongoing campaign to choke off regional logistics, and in order to further 'punish' Ukraine.

Golden Leo seen partially submerged offshore Odesa, July 26. Via the Odesa Military Administration

While Ukraine's repeat large drone waves on the Moscow region have driven headlines, much less attention has been paid to the emerging and renewed Black Sea war.

Moscow seeks to sever military supply routes and disrupt arms shipments bound for Ukraine, but this has also obviously resulted in damaged and sunken tankers, auxiliary vessels, and even deaths of civilian bystanders among international shipping crew.

Russia's military has said that from the weekend through Monday, key logistics hubs of Odessa, Chernomorsk, and Port of Mykolaiv (Nikolayev) have been hit - with the latter site seeing a docked cargo vessel receiving a direct strike.

All of this comes after local authorities in Odessa confirmed Sunday that a foreign-flagged cargo ship, which some reports have identified as the Guinea-Bissau-flagged Golden Leo, capsized and sank near the coast after taking heavy damage from a Russian attack over a week ago.

🚨 Russian strikes continue to hit Ukrainian ports and vessels supplying the military

The attacks targeted a trans-shipment facility and fuel depots in Nikolayev's port, and also hit a cargo vessel at sea that was hauling military supplies to Odessa and Chernomorsk. pic.twitter.com/d7VLskmYOC

— Sputnik (@SputnikInt) July 28, 2026

According to The Maritime Executive: 

A small cargo ship that was badly damaged in a Russian strike off Odesa has gone down, according to Ukrainian authorities. The small vessel had absorbed multiple hits, and it sank after six days of progressive flooding.

On July 19, three Russian cruise missiles hit the Turkish-operated, Guinea-Bissau-flagged ship Golden Leo off the coast of Odesa. The vessel was outbound with a load of corn at the time of the strike; Russia has been targeting Ukraine's grain export sector in retaliation for strikes on Russian logistics and energy infrastructure. 

Video of the slowly sinking ship had gone viral over the last several days, and the Russian attack killed ten people - and with eight crew members later having to be rescued. 

At least two of the projectiles that hit the vessel were anti-ship missiles, triggering a massive fire before it went under.

The cargo vessel hit by multiple Russian cruise missiles while carrying Ukrainian grain off the coast of Odesa last week finally sank earlier today. pic.twitter.com/oAeSZZkHAW

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) July 26, 2026

Russia has come under international condemnation for these attacks, especially from India given the rising numbers of Indian crew members killed or injured.

Russian vessels with civilian crew have also been coming under attack from Ukraine in the same region...

The crew of the Russian NEW VICTORY Bulk Carrier, IMO 9159050, filmed a FP-1/FP-2 attack drone strike on their vessel in the Black Sea. pic.twitter.com/R6vSvqCeZs

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) July 26, 2026

Sea war has also lately expanded into the Caspian, potentially linking the Ukraine and Iran conflicts...

Ukraine says it has struck several vessels in the Caspian Sea used to transport Russian military cargo to Iran. Reports suggest the cargo ships Port Olya 2 and Begey were hit. Meanwhile, Iranian regime-affiliated channels are threatening ballistic missile strikes on Ukraine. pic.twitter.com/OBFk2SdH3H

— Baba Banaras™ (@RealBababanaras) July 25, 2026

But the Kremlin has shot back, saying it is Ukraine which is unleashing "indiscriminate terrorist attacks against civilian infrastructure" through its constant drone attacks.

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/29/2026 - 02:45

How Does A Political Party Leader Survive This?

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity News,

Far left UK Green Party leader Zack Polanski has caused uproar by sharing an Instagram post featuring a man in a T-shirt depicting a guillotine next to the words "We're only making plans for Nigel." The clear target was Reform UK leader Nigel Farage.

This lands just two weeks after Reform's Ann Widdecombe was beaten to death with a hammer in her own home.

Reform has reported Polanski to the Metropolitan Police for incitement to murder. The Met says it is conducting enquiries.

Zack Polanski has posted to his 713k Instagram followers a photo of a man in a T-shirt calling for the beheading of Nigel Farage.

To do this just 2 weeks after our friend Ann was murdered is staggering.

Polanski is inciting murder.

It must be treated as such by the police. pic.twitter.com/mkLvxESf21

— Zia Yusuf (@ZiaYusufUK) July 27, 2026

The image formed part of a carousel of photos from a Green Party event. Polanski, who has more than 700,000 Instagram followers, accepted a collaboration request. Once the specific frame was flagged, he unshared it.

A Green Party spokesman said he "unequivocally does not support this type of dangerous message" and claimed he had accepted the post "without realising there was more to it than he had seen." The same spokesman called the T-shirt "clearly in poor taste" while noting Polanski himself has received threats.

Nigel Farage shared a screenshot and stated the obvious double standard: "This is what Zack Polanski has just posted on his Instagram. If I was to post anything as inciteful then I would expect to be arrested, and so should Polanski."

Reform's home affairs spokesman Zia Yusuf posted a video reaction expressing disbelief at the sequence of events.

I can't believe I'm saying this in a video pic.twitter.com/vs5UbnMHKJ

— Zia Yusuf (@ZiaYusufUK) July 27, 2026

The Metropolitan Police confirmed: "Earlier today, we received a third-party report relating to an image shared on social media. We take reports of this nature extremely seriously, and officers are conducting enquiries into the matter."

Is the enquiry was serious or just purely performative?

But are you really looking into this further or just two tier lip service? https://t.co/xaqZKpDvEi

— Gauci Reports (@GauciReports) July 27, 2026

Reform has also indicated it will refer Polanski to the Greater London Authority monitoring officer, given his elected role there.

The timing is not abstract. Ann Widdecombe, 78, Reform's immigration and justice spokeswoman and a long-serving former Conservative minister, was found dead at her remote Dartmoor home on 9 July.

Prosecutors told a court she sustained 21 blows to the head from a hammer in what was described as a planned and targeted attack. A man has been charged with her murder.

The killing immediately produced open celebration among sections of the left online, including on platforms that market themselves as more "kind" alternatives to mainstream social media. Users treated the death of an elderly woman for her politics as a punchline or a form of progress.

Against this backdrop, Polanski's post landed like petrol on dry grass.

Jack Hadfield noted the contrast with previous cases of social-media speech:

Lucy Connolly was locked up for much less.

Are the police going to apply the law fairly, or are we going to see more two tier justice?

The left are violent extremists who want to see us dead, and they should be treated as such! https://t.co/z7cKwkmKnG

— Jack Hadfield ?? (@JackHadders) July 27, 2026

Alex Armstrong stressed equal application:

Lucy Connolly's post was undoubtedly seen by far fewer people and was also deleted.

I don't believe anyone should be locked up for social media posts HOWEVER this is about equal application of the law. Ignorance is not seen an excuse, neither is an apology. Not my beliefs, that... https://t.co/fpicPcdBmN

— Alex Armstrong (@Alexarmstrong) July 27, 2026

Nioh Berg highlighted the mechanics of Instagram collaboration posts. Accepting a collaboration requires a deliberate step; the image was visible.

Let me point out the LIE here.

Zack was added to an IG collaboration. In order to be a visible collaborator, you must manually accept it.

Meaning Zack, the disgusting subversive snake, SAW the image and STILL accepted it. He only unshared because of massive backlash and the... https://t.co/Tgi8WhyVPw pic.twitter.com/dwMTmQHK0s

— ???? ???? ?? ?? (@NiohBerg) July 27, 2026

Will we see yet another example of two tier policing in the UK?

I don't t want people arrested for threatening social media posts, but if this was me or someone on the right... we WOULD be arrested.

So we either have two tier policing or we have consistent policing... what will it be ?

This is two weeks after Ann Widdecombe's murder. The left... https://t.co/hvJjStmi3l

— Adam Brooks AKA EssexPR ?? (@EssexPR) July 27, 2026

Alex Phillips observed the media asymmetry:

Can you imagine if it was someone from Reform wearing a t shirt with a medieval murder instrument on it and Nigel Farage had retweeted it?

Every newspaper front page would be plastered with it and there'd be mass calls for resignation

2 Tierism is Leftists at the top, and us... https://t.co/5FfC2s4KxJ

— Alex Phillips (@ThatAlexWoman) July 27, 2026

Susan Hall of the London Assembly noted that this rhetoric is unacceptable in any context.

It's irrelevant if you like or support Nigel Farage or not. This is totally and utterly unacceptable, aimed at anyone. I cannot imagine the meltdown that would be going on right now if Farage had aimed this at any of those on the left. https://t.co/wmHA3CZClN

— Susan Hall AM (@Councillorsuzie) July 27, 2026

Polanski leads the same Green Party that has spent years elevating radical identity politics above basic national standards. In May, we documented the election of a transgender Tamil immigrant on a temporary student visa - with no British citizenship or permanent residency - as a Green MSP in Scotland.

The party's record under Polanski includes candidates investigated for antisemitism, open rejection of biological reality, and a consistent prioritisation of ideological purity over ordinary voters.

The culture that normalises such figures is the same culture that treats a guillotine graphic aimed at a political rival as an unfortunate oversight.

British politics has already seen two sitting MPs murdered in recent memory - Jo Cox and David Amess - plus the hammer killing of Widdecombe. Security concerns for public figures are no longer theoretical.

Farage has repeatedly described himself as among the most physically and verbally attacked politicians of the modern era. Polanski has previously labelled Farage a "fascist" and a "grifter." The language of existential threat has become casual on one side of the spectrum while the same side demands maximum protection and sensitivity for its own.

Two-tier enforcement remains the live issue. Cases involving speech from the right have produced arrests, charges, and in some instances custody. Equivalent or stronger material from the left has frequently been waved away as "poor taste," "satire," or an unfortunate oversight.

The Met's statement that it takes such reports "extremely seriously" will be tested by whether any meaningful action follows or whether the file quietly closes once the news cycle moves on.

A political party leader is not an anonymous activist. He is a public figure with institutional reach, elected positions, and a platform that amplifies whatever he platforms.

Accepting a collaboration that places a beheading graphic of a rival in front of three-quarters of a million followers is not a private lapse. It is a public act. Claiming not to have noticed the content after the fact does not restore the credibility that was spent.

The response from the Green Party has been damage control rather than unambiguous rejection of the underlying culture that makes such imagery thinkable.

Either the rules on incitement and threats apply evenly, or they exist solely to police one side. If Polanski remains leader of the Green Party after this, it confirms the far left's extremist stance and proves that only those who oppose it will be targeted and punished.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/29/2026 - 02:00

The War's Back Is Broken

Authored by Alastair Crooke

Trump ordered the US military not to carry out new strikes on Iran Friday night, despite approving earlier a "Gates of Hell massive attack" on Iran. The US has now requested a new temporary ceasefire with Iran and is seeking a return to the collapsed and suspended MoU, with discussions to include Yemen, and with Trump seeking to make AnsarAllah a party to the negotiations.

Clearly Trump is angry, and fears that that the war is consuming his Presidency (and his legacy). Iran comprehensively rejected all negotiations throughout this last week and confirmed it will not start negotiations under any circumstances. Put simply, why would Iran consent to give the US time to regroup and rearm before launching another round of strikes on Iran when it has the US “on the run.”

A return to the MoU whose credibility Trump repeatedly has shredded? Unlikely.

Will Schryver notes that rumors are swirling that the Pentagon is pressuring Trump to call off the war with Iran because the US has nearly exhausted its stockpiles of air-defence interceptors and stand-off strike missiles. The President’s top aides are also uneasy about the prospect of a widening war in the Middle East, the alienation of key Gulf allies vulnerable to further Iranian attack, and the coming energy crunch. “Few if any in Mr. Trump’s inner circle believed the plan to escalate was wise, said the two people briefed,” the New York Times reports.

It seems too that jiggery-pokery over the exact fuel supply situation in the US may have played a part in Trump’s backtrack. Larry Johnson reports that –

A brief prepared by Karl Miller investigates how the US military’s covert fuel procurement and export operations are depleting the nation’s diesel and jet fuel reserves, particularly during a period when domestic stocks are already critically low.

In gist, Miller says that –

much of this (covert) fuel export is routed through opaque channels, such as the Rotterdam trans-shipment hub, where the final military or foreign allocation is not publicly reconciled, leaving the American economy exposed to shortage risks – whilst military and foreign operations – ‘notably Israel’ – receive priority access.

This report by Miller seems to connect to the US authorities’ open manipulation of oil benchmarks designed to convince markets that there is no danger of fuel shortages arising from the ongoing emergency release from the SPR (Strategic Petroleum Reserves) of 172 million barrels that was initiated to counter supply shocks from the conflict with Iran.

Whilst the statuary security floor is 250 million barrels (the current level is around 300), nonetheless the narrative is being promoted that the drawdown can go even further (to 70 mbpd). But can it? What is the minimum level the strategic oil reserves can go to? It is more complicated than just one big vat of crude that has a specific level. The SPR is composed of many caverns, and contains different types of crude oil, that are being drawn down at different rates, with some caverns likely to collapse if drained too far. In short, nobody knows how far is too far. It’s all guesswork.

With the back broken to Trump’s military assault the only path back to negotiations would be to offer front-loaded real concessions. But even were Trump to do this, would he be believed? And can Trump’s mental state sustain such implied humiliation?

The main obstacle on the path back to negotiations with Iran is that he and his inner circle understand Iran back-to-front.

They aver to believe that they are dealing with an intransigent and hardline leadership, whilst Iranians as a whole long for an exit.

This is wrong; it is the other way around. It is the leadership that is pragmatic, and it is “the street” that is overall more hard-line and demands vengeance. And demands to know why there should be negotiations at all.

Then again, Team Trump and his Fox News cheerleaders have slipped from the earlier US vision of itself as a redeemer nation into a radical Manichaean “characterization of itself,” Professor Michael Vlahos writes, in which –

American ‘good news’ has been replaced by the ever-present spectre of Evil and the threat of force. The holy words, Freedom and Democracy, while still chanted, have become a hollow mantra. The American ‘gospel”’no longer preaches about bringing redemption and expiation: it is now concerned with enforcement and punishment. The volte-face came in an instant, on 9/11 and with Guantanamo.

The problem then centers on attitude: How is it possible to negotiate or talk to the embodiment of evil (as Trump terms the Iranians)? It isn’t possible, of course. That was the point to casting enemies in such dark terms. It precludes true mediation. It precludes a solution that can be viewed as the elevation to power for “one of the most evil people in history,” leading a “gang of bloodthirsty thugs.” It distils policy to the search for dominance over the “otherness.”

The West exhibits one particular way of thinking that it deems to represent the essence of that which is Human. This mode of thinking (often termed Apollonian) links to Patriarchy, law, and vertical top-to-bottom secular, rational, mechanistic thinking. It offers little room for “betweenness.” Things are either “A” or “non-A.”

However, another sphere (often termed the Dionysian) expresses the energetic duality in both nature and in the human – male and female; order and exuberant transgression; and of rectitude and degeneracy. They form the poles within consciousness that both co-inhere in us, and that co-constitute each other. (Dionysian logos may be viewed perhaps as the shadow, or even of the revolt against Apollo).

And then there is Persephone (the underside to the Dionysian “shadow”) expressing the chthonic, feminine existence. Here there is no male pole, but only a goddess radiating earthiness and the female principle of reproduction, the process of growth and of caring, and of underworld knowledge (called intuition) – symbolizing the cyclical Life of Aphrodite, decay, death and ultimate renewal.

Consciousness however, mostly expresses the human quality from one particular orientation. Nonetheless, all civilizations draw from the full diversity of such components to consciousness that – one way or another – respond to a particular civilization.

To think in one culture is to think in one way; however to belong to a different culture, a different ethnic group, a different religion – means that thinking will differ. Yet we all remain human.

So the imperial hubris of Trump is beginning to face the fact that he will find it hard – possibly impossible – to find a solution to the Middle East, because to see the world from the purely Apollonian perspective is essentially male and exclusivist and fails to understand “otherness”; but rather relies on exceptional privilege. It simply does not – and cannot – recognize a plurality of minds.

The US has lost the war. By adopting such uncompromising Manichaean language, Trump effectively has severed himself from any prospective diplomatic solution. By widening the war (Lebanon, Yemen, Syria and Iraq) he has severely complicated any diplomatic track. All elements are interrelated, yet they also have separate agendas. Thus a solution involves a complex matrix of issues, rather than a binary dispute between the US and Iran alone. The US ultimately will have to capitulate, with the result that Iran becomes a regional power (strengthening Russia and China), whilst the Region slowly will come to terms with this new West Asian reality.

Tyler Durden Tue, 07/28/2026 - 23:25

Los Angeles Is Painting Its Streets To Fight Heat Waves

Researchers found that coating more than 700,000 square feet of asphalt in a Los Angeles neighborhood with a solar-reflective material helped reduce urban heat, though the benefits came with limitations, according to the Times of India.

The project, conducted in Pacoima in the San Fernando Valley and published in Environmental Research Communications, covered roads, parking lots, playgrounds, and basketball courts with a reflective coating designed to bounce sunlight away instead of absorbing it. During a September 2022 heat wave, afternoon air temperatures in treated areas were as much as 3.5°F (1.9°C) cooler than in a nearby untreated neighborhood. Pavement surface temperatures also dropped by roughly 10°F.

The report says that researchers cautioned, however, that cooler pavement doesn't always translate into greater comfort for pedestrians. While reflective surfaces absorb less heat, they can also reflect more solar radiation back into the surrounding environment, potentially increasing the radiant heat people experience. Factors such as direct sunlight, humidity, wind, and surrounding surfaces all influence how hot it actually feels outdoors.

The findings suggest reflective pavement can help reduce urban heat, particularly during extreme heat waves, but works best as part of a broader strategy that also includes trees, shade, and other cooling measures. Researchers also noted that coatings can lose effectiveness over time due to weather, traffic, dirt, and routine road maintenance.

Tyler Durden Tue, 07/28/2026 - 23:00