Zero Rss

Nuclear Power Capacity To Jump 44% By 2036 As China Surpasses US

Global nuclear capacity is set to surge by 44% over the next decade as China topples the United States as the biggest nuclear power capacity holder and India will hike its capacity to boost energy security. These are the estimates in a new report by BloombergNEF, which sees total global nuclear capacity at 535 gigawatts (GW) by 2036, up from the 372 GW of installed capacity as of the end of 2025.

The world is projected to have as much as 535 gigawatts of installed nuclear power by 2036, up from 372 last year, according to the report released Wednesday.

Echoing our frequent observations showing how aggressively Chinese nuclear output is growing compared to the stagnant US nuclear industry...

Four months later, China has added 9 more reactors and is now building a total of 39 nuclear power plants. Meanwhile the US has added 0 and is still building 0 https://t.co/TJ6BoMghNk pic.twitter.com/O4idOANNUr

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) April 15, 2026

... China is set to nearly double its current nuclear capacity to 102 GW from 59 GW, a figure that would propel it past the US to become the world’s biggest nuclear nation.

Energy security, soaring electricity demand from AI centers, and decarbonization targets will all combine to contribute to the surge in nuclear power capacity additions in the coming decade.

“Nuclear power has essentially been ‘running in place’ since the Fukushima disaster in 2011,” according to the report. “This status quo is set to change.”

Nuclear power is making a global comeback as governments and tech companies seek reliable, low-carbon energy sources. At the same time, electricity demand is surging, driven by industrial users, increasingly electrified homes, and power-hungry data centers. Meanwhile, rising social acceptance of nuclear power is pushing utilities and governments around the world to reconsider policies that have hindered development. 

At the same time, the report predicts that capacity growth will likely be tempered by slow regulatory processes that have historically dragged on new nuclear projects. Echoing our frequent lament, in the US, where the technology is getting strong support from the Trump administration, there’s only one commercial plant under construction, though BNEF expects the pace to accelerate in the coming decade.

Meanwhile, iIn the biggest emerging markets in Asia, China and India, nuclear power will be key to meeting rising electricity demand from electrification and AI centers.

China is building solar, wind, coal, and nuclear with equal enthusiasm to include “all of the above” energy sources, OilPrice reports. Beijing plans to put into operation seven new nuclear reactors this year, boosting its already substantial fleet, which is already the largest in the world.

Meanwhile, a panel set up by India’s power ministry has said in a report that India’s goal to boost its installed nuclear power capacity to 100 gigawatts by 2047, up from just 8.8 GW now, would require as much as 19.28 trillion Indian rupees, or $204 billion at current exchange rates, of cumulative capital.

The Indian government has said that its Nuclear Energy Mission targets 100 GW capacity by 2047 “through deployment of existing and emerging advanced nuclear technologies, both indigenous & with foreign cooperation.”

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/08/2026 - 20:30

DOJ Warns State Election Officials Can Be Charged Over Noncitizen Voting

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times,

The Department of Justice (DOJ) has sent letters to election officials across the country, warning them that they could be charged if they let noncitizens receive ballots or vote in elections.

Assistant Attorney General for Civil Rights Harmeet Dhillon speaks during a news conference at the Justice Department in Washington on Sept. 29, 2025. Andrew Harnik/Getty Images

"Any election officer, including the chief election officer of the state, who knowingly retains noncitizens on the state's [voter list] or facilitates noncitizens in receiving and casting ballots could be subject to criminal liability," Harmeet Dhillon, the assistant attorney general for civil rights, said in the letters, which were sent on July 7.

It is also a crime to prevent people who try to vote from voting, the officials were also told.

Dhillon also outlined various laws that set forth requirements for state and local election officials regarding voter lists.

"We encourage you to contact us to discuss what steps your state should take to maintain clean voter lists as required by law," Dhillon wrote.

A DOJ spokesperson told The Epoch Times in an email, "The Department sent these letters to all 50 states and the District of Columbia, asking for voluntary compliance in a timely manner with their obligations under federal law to ensure only citizens vote in federal elections."

The letters came after the DOJ requested data on registered voters from all states. Several dozen, including Utah, have declined to comply with the request, sparking legal action from the department. Judges have so far ruled against the agency, including a judge who in June said the request sought data that falls outside of records the federal government may require states to produce.

Utah Lt. Gov. Deidre Henderson said in a post on Threads that she received one of the letters from Dhillon.

"I'm sure I'm not the only chief election officer of a state who is being targeted for following state and federal laws by resisting DOJ's demands for private voter data that have thus far been ruled illegal by at least a dozen courts," Henderson said. "This is truly bizarre behavior by the federal agency that is supposed to be protecting civil rights."

Dhillon also said Tuesday that the DOJ will send election monitors to six states - Arizona, Michigan, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New Hampshire, and Virginia - during primary elections this year.

The monitors will be focused on issues such as access to polls for disabled voters and whether voting locations are open for the amount of time that is required under federal law.

"It's also important to make sure that our voting is accurate so that every citizen who votes has their vote counted equally without being canceled out by somebody who shouldn't be voting," Dhillon said in a video statement.

Jesus Osete, the DOJ's principal deputy assistant attorney general for civil rights, said in a post on X that federal election monitors "are a routine part of every election."

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/08/2026 - 20:05

Watch: Fireworks At UN As Cuba Disrupts US Ambassador's Speech: "You're A Liar, Mr Waltz!"

A UN General Assembly this week devolved into a high-charged shouting match amid procedural disruptions and chaos, after US Ambassador to the UN Mike Waltz told the global forum on Tuesday that there is no American blockade on Cuba.

Havana didn't take the bait quietly, given Cuba's Foreign Minister Bruno Rodríguez immediately shot back at Waltz - who is a former Army Green Beret: "This is the United Nations General Assembly, not a Green Beret camp. You're a liar, Mr. Waltz."

Tensions FLARE on UN floor as Cuba accuses the US of imposing an ENERGY SIEGE, 'an act of war'

'YOU ARE A LIAR, MR WALTZ' pic.twitter.com/HYlChmahC4

— RT (@RT_com) July 8, 2026

The fireworks erupted during an extraordinary session called by the Cuban government to discuss the embargo, which was approved on Tuesday with 136 votes in favor, nine against, and 30 abstentions. 

Rodríguez further relayed a message from Raúl Castro, Cuba’s former president, brother to late leader Fidel Castro, stating that the army general is "ready to defend our homeland" - alluding to Waltz's references to the aged leader during his speech.

Rodríguez further labeled Waltz as an "insignificant official" and warned him, "Mr. Waltz, no one will remember you soon," while invoking Che Guevara, among others.

He concluded with the warning: "Anyone who attempts to seize Cuba will only gather the dust of its blood-soaked soil if they do not perish in the fight." 

Waltz's position had been to turn things around on the Cubans, saying that the island-nation's communist leaders had in effect embargoed themselves. "There is no ring of Navy warships, US Navy warships sitting around this island blocking trade or humanitarian aid going into Cuba," Waltz said. "It’s fake. It’s false. It’s a lie. Period."

"There’s a lot of talk today of an embargo. And indeed there is one," he said. "It’s the embargo the Cuban regime mercilessly imposes on its own people decade after decade after decade."

Waltz called on Havana to "change your ways" and "turn the lights back on for your people," while accusing Cuba's leaders of living comfortably while the rest of the population starves and struggles with basic daily necessities. 

Fuller exchange:

In face of a member of the Cuban delegation pounding on the table, interrupting the American ambassador's speech, Walz said he will not be silenced.

"This is not Havana. This is the United States of America. This is the United Nations," Waltz said. "And we will speak, we will be heard, and we will not be silenced like your own people. So, pound away."

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/08/2026 - 19:40

"It's Some Bullsh*t": Green River, Wyoming Considered License Plate Readers To "Protect Against Terrorist Attacks"

Green River officials are weighing whether to accept a $111,956 federal grant to install automatic license plate readers at key entrances to the city, a proposal that has sparked backlash from some residents over privacy and government surveillance, according to Cowboy State Daily.

The grant, funded through the United States Department of Homeland Security, is intended to help communities prevent and respond to terrorism. Police Chief Shawn Sturlaugson said the cameras would also help officers quickly identify vehicles tied to criminal investigations, Amber Alerts, missing persons cases, or other law enforcement concerns.

He stressed the system is not intended to enforce expired registrations or serve as a broad crime-fighting dragnet, adding that the department is considering a policy to automatically delete data after 30 days.

The report says that not everyone is convinced. Former Wyoming lawmaker Marshall Burt dismissed the proposal outright, calling it "some bullshit" and questioning the city's reliance on anti-terrorism funding. "If we have that big a case of terrorism in Green River, I imagine we would have heard about it by now," he said.

Burt argued the real issue is the long-term expansion of government surveillance. While he acknowledged drivers have little expectation of privacy on public roads, he warned that modern camera systems can compile years of location data, creating opportunities for tracking and profiling that extend far beyond their original purpose. He also said any privacy safeguards adopted today could easily be removed by future city leaders.

Mayor Pete Rust defended the proposal, saying Green River is already one of the nation's safest cities and that license plate readers are simply another tool for police. Although he said he is unaware of any specific terrorism threats, he noted the city's location along an interstate, railroad, river, and near major infrastructure makes it strategically important.

If approved, Green River would join several other Wyoming communities, including Cheyenne, Jackson, Glenrock, and the Wind River Indian Reservation, which already use license plate reader technology.

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/08/2026 - 18:50

Berkeley Gives Back Corn, Peas, & Seeds To Tribes As Protected Items Of "Cultural Patronage"

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

The University of California (Berkeley) has ordered the return of new displays to native American tribes under the Native American Graves Protection and Repatriation Act  (NAGPRA). That is hardly news except that the items were not human remains or relics, but corn, corn cobs, peas, beans, and other seeds. The university has decided that even such scientific samples are prohibited items of “cultural patronage.”

The Act requires the return of human remains, funerary objects, sacred objects, and objects of cultural patrimony. “Cultural patrimony” is defined as “an object having ongoing historical, traditional, or cultural importance central to the Native American group or culture itself.”

However, according to a federal notice, these were old corn, corn cobs and seeds, beans, and other items used for research and display by the Phoebe A. Hearst Museum of Anthropology.

They will now be returned to the Pueblo of Isleta, New Mexico, a Native American tribe.

Old corn cobs linked to a Native American tribe are being removed from an anthropology museum at UC Berkeley in accordance with a federal “repatriation” law.

According to a June 4 federal notice, 24 items, including corn, corn cobs, peas, beans, and other seeds, are being removed. They were part of the collection at the Phoebe A. Hearst Museum of Anthropology. They will be returned to the Pueblo of Isleta, New Mexico, a Native American tribe, to comply with the Native American Graves Protection and Repatriation Act.

The notice from the school states that “Between 1940 to 1941, George F. Carter collected 24 lots of seeds via `field research with Native American agriculturalists’ across the Southwestern United States, including Pueblo of Isleta in New Mexico.”

I understand how one can read the federal law broadly, but this seems wildly out of sync with the purpose of the law. These are plants and seeds used for field research to better understand the food chain of the early periods of life in the Americas. The use of the federal law so broadly undermines the study of these tribes.

National Park Service

Obviously, corn and other crop staples were key to the culture of these tribes, but so was water, wood, and other sustaining resources. I do not understand why the tribes themselves do not want to encourage such research on their heritage and history.

The university could clearly decide that it no longer needs the items or that the items hold more value to the tribes. However, to say that they are compelled under federal law is a dubious reading of the federal statute.

The College Fix quotes Elizabeth Weiss, professor emeritus of anthropology at San José State University, as objecting to the interpretation:

“Objects of cultural patrimony are defined as objects that cannot be owned by a single person, and, thus, cannot be sold or given from one person to another. It is hard for me to understand how plants and seeds could fall into this category.”

This is something that the Department of the Interior, Justice Department, and Bureau of Indian Affairs should clarify in the interest of continued research and historical work in this area.

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/08/2026 - 18:25

Modular Reactors To Solve Data Center Hysteria?

For the nuclear energy nerds, last night Erik Townsend joined ZH to host a panel with the founders of modular nuclear reactor startup Aalo Atomics, Matt Loszak and Yasir Arafat. 

Townsend is a committed nuclear energy bull and has invested in many nuclear energy startups, his largest allocation being Aalo, a company that hopes to pump out small modular reactors on a mass scale to solve the rising energy costs that AI is rapidly ushering in.

Here were some highlights from the panel for those short on time:

The Data Center Dilemma

AI data centers have become the boogeyman recently, facing opposition on the populist right and left as nobody wants one in their backyard goosing up local energy prices. Loszak said the solution to this dilemma is stand-alone modular reactors that power data centers independent of the grid.

"Our whole thesis is we are really building the ideal product market fit for AI data centers… If you look at how we're powering data centers today, it is not with gigawatt-scale nuclear plants. It is actually with 15 to 60 megawatt gas turbines... We're essentially making the nuclear version of that."

He argued that standardized, factory-built reactors could ultimately outcompete traditional nuclear projects on speed and scale.

"You could build a fleet of smaller reactors and get to many gigawatts per year... way more reliably and predictably with this model than the gigawatt-scale AP1000 model… This is a contrarian view. Not everyone in nuclear believes this... but the reality is the past does not always look like the future."

pic.twitter.com/CwXJCPkbRB

— ZeroHedge Debates (@zerohedgeDebate) July 8, 2026 Reactor “Assembly Line”

CTO Arafat said Aalo's long-term goal is to manufacture reactors the way other industries mass-produce complex products, to scale towards creating the industry's first nuclear reactor “assembly line”.

"We want to actually build the first nuclear assembly line where you have jigs and equipment and processes where material flows through, and then you can make the same modules over and over and over again."

This is not something that is currently in development, Aalo said, but perhaps on the horizon as they look to raise $500 million in a series C. The fundraise would then, in theory, go to finance a massive factory to mass produce modular reactors… which could one day power private homes.

pic.twitter.com/MqsxgRvpj6

— ZeroHedge Debates (@zerohedgeDebate) July 8, 2026

Watch the full debate below or on our YouTube channel.

https://t.co/OBqH6G98dN

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) July 7, 2026 Tyler Durden Wed, 07/08/2026 - 18:00

Dear Trump: Time To Flood America's Weigh Stations With ICE And CBP Agents

Submitted by American Truckers United,

We, the truckers who keep America moving, have had enough. 

An analysis of crash data and English proficiency violations reveals that drivers from just a handful of states are largely responsible for the epidemic of illegal alien truck and bus drivers terrorizing our highways. These preventable tragedies must end now.

We are formally calling on President Donald J. Trump to immediately deploy ICE and CBP officers to commercial weigh stations across the entire country. No more half-measures. No more looking the other way. American families deserve safe roads.

The Deadly Data Doesn't Lie

Our review of crash statistics shows that alleged illegal alien truck drivers operating under USDOT numbers domiciled out of California, Illinois, Ohio, Oklahoma, Florida, Massachusetts, and New York are responsible for over 29 fatalities nationwide.

Trooper Michael Pahira's death was 100% preventable.

A Pennsylvania State Trooper — a 20-year veteran — was struck and killed on I-81 while conducting a routine commercial vehicle inspection. The driver? Michael Bon, a Haitian illegal alien who entered under Biden parole, had… pic.twitter.com/XFHWnRl5c1

— American Truckers United (@atutruckers) July 7, 2026

• 11 people killed by truck drivers operating out of the state of California
• 6 people killed by truck drivers operating out of the state of Illinois
• 6 people killed by bus drivers operating out of the state of New York
• 3 people killed by truck drivers operating out of the state of Ohio

Four people lost their lives at the hands of foreign truck drivers in just the past two weeks.

The loss of these four lives was entirely preventable.

If you are in our country illegally or can’t speak and understand English, you have no business operating an 80K-pound… https://t.co/VaK7dI03TD

— Congressman Troy E. Nehls (@RepTroyNehls) July 8, 2026

These numbers represent real Americans — mothers, fathers, children, and law enforcement officers — whose lives were cut short or forever altered.

We think of little Dalilah Coleman, critically injured as a 5-year-old when an illegal alien driving an 18-wheeler slammed into her family’s vehicle in California. We think of Pennsylvania State Trooper Michael Pahira Jr., killed in the line of duty on I-81 by another illegal alien truck driver with a Massachusetts-issued CDL. These are not isolated incidents. They are symptoms of a broken system.

English Proficiency Violations Expose the Scale of the Problem

Since President Trump’s executive order on immigration enforcement went into effect, 22,910 out-of-service orders have been issued for English proficiency violations and related issues. The distribution tells the story:

• 29% issued to motor carriers operating from Texas
• 13% from California
• 10% from Florida
• 7% from Illinois

These same states repeatedly appear in both crash data and safety violation reports. Sanctuary policies and lax licensing practices are endangering every driver and family sharing the road with these rigs.

Weigh Stations Are the Front Line — And Many Are Wide Open

Our recent investigation into Arkansas weigh stations revealed a disturbing truth: no immigration enforcement is currently taking place. States known for issuing non-domicile CDLs to illegal aliens are allowed to bypass the scales without inspection. This must stop immediately.

🚨Why aren’t we stopping "potential" illegal alien truckers at every weigh station?

American Truckers United was in Arkansas last week filming operations at a West Memphis Weigh Station — and exposed zero enforcement.

None targeted. None intercepted.

We must demand… pic.twitter.com/iPJaH84DpP

— American Truckers United (@atutruckers) July 7, 2026

Truckers who cannot read road signs in English, who lack proper training, or who have no legal right to be operating commercial vehicles in the first place are a clear and present danger. The current patchwork approach is failing.

Our Ask to President Trump

Deploy ICE and CBP officers to weigh stations nationwide. Make immigration status and CDL legitimacy checks part of every routine inspection. Close the loopholes that allow non-domicile CDL holders from problem states to operate unchecked.

We have a duty — as truckers, as Americans, and as patriots — to ensure no more preventable tragedies occur like those that befell Dalilah Coleman and Officer Pahira. These deaths did not have to happen. With decisive action at the scales, they will not happen again.

President Trump, the time for action is now. Put federal officers at the weigh stations. Secure our highways. Protect American lives.

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/08/2026 - 17:40

Waymo Robotaxi "Snitches" On Two 15-Year-Olds Drinking & Shooting Orbeez Guns In Bay Area

Two 15-year-old boys were detained in San Mateo Monday afternoon after the Waymo robotaxi they were riding in reported them to police - for drinking alcohol and firing a gel-bead blaster out of the moving car - then pulled itself over so officers could collect them.

Waymo's remote monitors spotted the behavior on the vehicle's interior cameras and called the San Mateo Police Department around 2:10 p.m. with the car's exact location. The company then disabled the vehicle near 20th Avenue and El Camino Real, telling the pair the car was having trouble - a ruse that bought officers time to get into position.

Because the initial report described what looked like a real firearm, police conducted a high-risk stop, approaching with guns drawn and a police dog deployed. No one was hurt. Inside, officers found an Orbeez-style gel blaster - painted over to pass for the real thing - and open alcohol.

The teens cooperated, were detained, and were released to their parents. The case has been forwarded to the San Mateo County District Attorney's office for review of possible charges, including underage drinking, and police say they plan to pull the Waymo's interior video.

"Parents do you know where your teens are? @waymo does!" The department wrote on Facebook: "After calling us and stopping the car, we were able to safely remove both subjects and determined they were shooting Orbeez from the car as they sipped on afternoon libations while being chauffeured around town in the driverless vehicle."

"While there was some ingenuity to this scheme, toy guns, water guns, and BB guns all pose real dangers, especially to an untrained eye... Shooting projectiles at speed can cause real damage. And lest not forget the underage drinking. All bad ideas today for these two. Well, the Waymo might have been the smartest idea yet, because driving impaired would've made this so much worse."

Waymo bars alcohol in its vehicles and doesn't allow unaccompanied minors in its California markets - so the ride was violating the rules before the first bead flew - and company policy notes that support staff "may access live video during a trip" in urgent circumstances.

"Safety is our highest priority at Waymo," a company spokesperson said in a statement after the story broke. "This behavior violates our user agreement, and while these sorts of events are rare, we take them extremely seriously and remain committed to improving road safety and mobility in the cities where we operate."

Online, the reaction split between "snitching" complaints, designated-driver jokes, and the question underneath them: the robotaxi that gets you home safely is also a camera platform that can pull itself over and hand you to the police. For two 15-year-olds, the lesson arrived early - no driver doesn't mean nobody's watching.

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/08/2026 - 17:20

Some College Students Are Testing At The Level Of 10-Year-Olds

Via Futurism,

Are you smarter than a 4th grader?

Gone are the days of university freshmen reading classical philosophers like Plato or contemporary pedagogues like Ta-Nehisi Coates. These days, incoming college students are lucky if they can get through Judy Blume’s “Tales of a Fourth Grade Nothing.”

According to a new “Survey of Adult Skills” conducted by the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development - a forum for 38 high-income, predominantly Western countries - a not insignificant number of adult students enrolled in higher education are now reading and doing math at a level which, in a more functional society, would be alarming for a middle schooler.

The survey, first spotted by the Economist, tested around 160,000 people of all ages, across all 38 member states. It found that across all OECD member countries, a full 8 percent of college students are reading at the level of a ten-year-old, if not worse. While countries like Germany and France rang in at under 5 percent, countries like Poland, Israel, and the United States blew the curve at 21, 20, and 14 percent, respectively.

The numbers aren’t much better when it comes to math.

Across OECD countries, 9 percent of college students do math at or below a ten-year-old level. In Italy, the US, and Slovakia, that figure jumps to over 15 percent — only outdone by Israel, where roughly 21 percent of college students were underachieving at the same low benchmark.

It seems there are numerous compounding explanations for these test results: pandemic-era learning gaps leading to lower levels of preparation, declining college enrollment forcing schools to lower admissions standards, and lower levels of public funding for education, to name a few.

The results also coincide with the explosion of large language models like ChatGPT, which by many accounts have carved out a new floor for academic failure in both K-12 and college-level education.

While there’s no denying how complicated the issue is, there is evidence that removing technology from classrooms altogether could offer an immediate boost.

In one classroom in Minneapolis, for example, a literature and English teacher banned phones and laptops, requiring all coursework to be done on pencil and paper.

As the school-year started in September, just 46 percent of the students involved said they felt confident about their reading skills. A few months later in February, that number stood at 95 percent.

Though it’s just one classroom, something is clearly off the rails in the education systems of the richest countries of the world — and the longer it goes unaddressed, the more students will be pushed into the world with the reading skills of 4th graders.

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/08/2026 - 17:00

Socialism Is Targeting The Foundations That Made America Great

Authored by Victor Davis Hanson via The Epoch Times,

This is a lightly edited transcript of a July 6 segment of the Victor Davis Hanson: In His Own Words podcast.

One question that came up constantly during this 250th anniversary Fourth of July celebration was whether we were gonna make it another 250 years, 500 years. We could be longer than the Roman Republic. Longer than the Roman Empire.

Democratic Socialists of America march in downtown Berkeley, Calif., on Aug. 5, 2018. Amy Osborne/AFP/Getty Images

And to answer that question, you have to know what allowed us to get this far, and for those who don't like us, what they would like to do to stop us.

And it turns out that the reasons that we survived 250 years and the reasons that we might survive another 250 years are precisely the areas where our critics would wish us to fail, or who are actively trying to see that we fail.

Take the first one, our Constitution. What's brilliant about the American Constitution is its federalism.

It outlines all the duties and prerogatives of the federal government, and then it says anything that is not relegated to the federal government is up to the states, and that's the majority of human experiences. It doesn't mean the states can fight one another or pass laws against one another or pass laws against the federal government.

The federal government has ultimate authority, but this federalism means that if California wants to tax 13.3 percent and Florida wants to tax 0 percent, then maybe 300,000 people a year will go to Florida and still enjoy the American experience, and vice versa.

You can go to any state in the country and what it really means is you're having 50 separate experiments.

You're all united by the federal government and the checks and balances of the Constitution and the Bill of Rights. But you have 50 different interpretations of them based on local and regional concerns, and that gives Americans a lot of choice, and that means when you're disaffected and you're angry at your lot in life, you have 49 other choices, and it's been a wonderful way of easing tensions.

The second is that we have been the beneficiary of legal immigration. We take more immigrants than any place in the world, and people have remarked that as we speak, the people who created Google, for example, or Elon Musk, were all legal immigrants, and they came to the United States because this is the only place in the world where you would have a free market economy, a protection of private wealth, and an encouragement of the population to be successful and to take risk.

And it's impossible to envision a Silicon Valley in the Muslim Middle East. It just wouldn't happen. Wouldn't happen. You couldn't have a Harvard or Yale or Princeton in today's China. They wouldn't allow free speech. You wouldn't have most of our American institutions in any other place.

And that means we get all of these legal immigrants, and they enrich our country if they come in diverse fashion, in numbers that can be assimilated legally with some knowledge of our country and preferably with English language fluency.

The other third reason is we were very lucky naturally. Once the United States, whether you like it or not, embraced Manifest Destiny and decided we were not going to be a continent of warring states as was Europe, 30 or 40 individual nations, but one uniform state in North America, then it was richly endowed for all of us.

We had mining, we had gold, we had silver, we had iron ore, we had almost... We even have rare minerals, rare earth minerals we have not fully tapped. We have oil, we have coal, we have hydroelectric. We have the richest energy nation in the world. We're pumping more oil and gas than any other country in the history of the universe.

We have plentiful timber. We have plentiful farmland. We're the largest farming producing country by the value of our exports and our domestic produce in the world. We have two huge coastlines, not to count the Gulf of America.

In other words, we're protected from the insanity that goes on in Latin America, Africa, Europe, and Asia, and we always have been.

So, the sheer size of the American continent, its role in American history as a frontier, its role as a safety valve where people could head West, young men, if they were disaffected by events on the East Coast, and they could make a fortune or make a livelihood farming or in timber or in minerals or in energy, you name it.

There's a fourth reason that we're very successful, and that is we have a free market, private property economy. We're not a socialist, we're not a communist country.

In other words, people flock to the United States from countries where there is no economic opportunity. It either is statism controlled by the state or it's crony capitalist, and that's why we have the most billionaires in the world.

China has more people than we do, four times more people. Russia has twice, three times the territory, but we have more people in the affluent class.

And finally, we have a middle class. Our middle class is the largest in the world. We're not a pyramidal society of a few rich people on top that use their wealth for special dispensations or to affect the government or a mass of poor who are subsidized and always demanding entitlements.

Free middle class. Now, those are our strengths.

So if you wanted to hurt the United States or to ensure that it would not last 250 years, what would you do to stop that? Well, the first thing that I would do is I would start questioning the Constitution and the Bill of Rights. So, what do we see now from, for example, the left?

They're always attacking the Second Amendment, the right to bear arms. They want to pack the court. They want to get rid of the filibuster. It is in the Constitution, the Electoral College. They want to ban or destroy the Electoral College.

They want to bring in two new states specifically, not one conservative and one liberal like the old Alaska-Hawaii compromise, but two liberal new states, Puerto Rico and Washington, D.C., and get four senators.

Anytime you see anyone that wants to alter the system like that, you know that they don't have the best interest of the United States because the system has worked for 250 years in most of these cases.

The second thing is you would want to, as I said earlier, you would want to say, we don't want legal-only immigration. We want anybody to come in. So we have 30 million illegal immigrants right now. Ten to 12 million came in under Joe Biden. We have no idea who they are. You walk across the border.

Is he a criminal? I don't know. Is he Albert Einstein? I don't know. Does he have COVID-19? I don't know. We were vaccinating in a mandatory fashion Americans in 2020 while people were flooding across in 2020, '21, '22, flooding across the border without border security.

And today, even though legal immigration has been the bulwark of what we've seen, we are getting immigrants who even come in legally and have nothing but hostile attitudes toward their generous host.

If you also wanted to damage the United States, then you would look at what I just talked about, natural resources. You would say no mining. We're in a problem right now with rare earths. We're short. They're critical to our economy. China has a monopoly, but we have some of the most abundant rare earth minerals in the world and we've been prohibited from using them.

We have the richest deposits of oil. Until recently, we did not develop them all. We did not develop coal in the proper way.

Our farming sector, the best and most efficient in the world, is under attack by environmentalists who want to cut off the water here in California.

I'm speaking from the richest agricultural county in the United States, Fresno County, and yet it needs water that has been sent out on the San Joaquin River into the ocean.

If you also wanted to destroy the United States or see it not last too much longer, you would kind of assault the middle class.

You would look at the United States as a binary, a Marxist binary. It is comprised not by class but by race. So, 70 percent, 65 percent are white oppressors. They are mostly white male, to be more particular, or more sensational, white male Christian heterosexuals, or the white race, or whatever we call these silly terms.

They are the exploiter, victimizer, and everybody on the other side is the victimized or oppressed. This is the binary that the Democratic Socialists of America and like-minded people use to alienate and divide the country, and it's worked very well.

But in between those two racial binaries is a class system in which the middle class still is the largest class and was the exact form, shape of a class system that the founders thought would be essential to republican government.

And then finally, of course, one of our greatest strengths is we have institutionalized a free market private property economy. Do away with that, and we go the way of the old Soviet Union or Cuba or Venezuela.

And what do we see now? We have people in the Democratic Socialists of America that want to confiscate property, get the means of production, take over tenant-landlord relationships, and absorb the private sector into the state.

If that happens, we will be impoverished.

So, we can make it another 250 years if we do what we did the last 250 years. But if we let people destroy those strengths that I enumerated, then we won't last another 50 years.

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/08/2026 - 16:20

Consumer Credit Unexpectedly Shrinks For The First Time Since 2024 As Credit Card Rates Jump

After two consecutive outsized jumps in consumer credit in the months of March and April, when gas prices surged and inflation resumed its track higher, lifting most prices as a result of the war in Iran, moments ago the Fed published its latest consumer credit (G.19) report for the month of May and it was a doozy: instead of the expected $17.5BN increase, in May total consumer credit unexpectedly shrank for the first time since November 2024.

The move was driven by a notable slowdown in nonrevolving credit, coupled with the biggest drop in revolving (credit card) debt since late 2024. 

Specifically, car and student loans (collectively non-revolving credit), rose by a modest $5.1 billion.

It was unclear what was behind the muted rise: recall that for the first quarter of 2026, student loans surged by $28 billion while auto loans posted a $2.4 billion decline, perhaps due to the very high interest rates on the debt (we will get an update for Q2 next month).

What is interesting, is that while auto loans have barely budged since late 2023, staying around 1.55 trillion for nearly three years, student loans have resumed their ascent, and after a modest decline in late 2023, student loans are once again at all time highs just shy of $1.9 trillion. 

At the same time, revolving credit, which mostly means credit card debt, unexpectedly sharnk by a notable $5.3 billion, following two months of $10BN+ increases.

It will be interesting to see if the paydown of credit card debt reflect in weaker retail sales for the month of June, which we will know when the report comes out in one week's time. 

Finally for those keeping tabs, after a modest decline in the previous two quarter, the average interest rate on credit card accounts assessed interest rose to 22.15%...

... a level last seen three years ago, when the Fed rates was almost 2% higher, which confirms our long-running observation that credit card rates go up but they never go down.

One final observation: after a period of about 6 years when the average amount financed by auto loans was around $25,000 (from 2008 to 2014), this amount has grown dramatically, and in Q1 2026 it hit a new record high of $42,500, the highest on record. Just in case there was confusion what is behind the relentless increase in car prices...

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/08/2026 - 15:44

Brown University Prof Bans Take-Home Exams After Mass-Cheating

Authored by Jennifer Kabbany via The College Fix,

A Brown University professor says he will no longer allow students to take exams at home after he caught a large chunk of his class cheating on a test.

Economics Professor Roberto Serrano said he allowed students to take a midterm at home, and 40 students, nearly half the class, earned a perfect 100; among the 86 students in the class, the average overall class score was 96, the Chronicle of Higher Education reported July 6.

“I immediately knew that something was fishy. In previous editions of the course, the average grade in the midterm ranged from 65 to 80,” the Ivy League professor said.

He said further review seemed to confirm his suspicions, so he told the class:

“I’m not going to declare it void for now. I’m going to give the class a chance to prove me wrong. If the distribution of grades in the final exam looks roughly similar to the distribution of grades on the midterm, then I’ll count the midterm. If not, I will declare the midterm null and void. Also, the final will be in person.”

Serrano told the Chronicle that, unfortunately, his fears were confirmed.

“Between the midterm in March and the final in May, there was a consistent flow of students dropping the class — many of them had scored 100 on the midterm,” he said.

“Of the 59 students that took the final, 19 of them failed, so they also failed the course. Quite a few showed up, signed the exam, and turned it in blank. The average grade for this final was by far the lowest in the history of this course.”

Underscoring the cheating scandal, Serrano is blind, and has had to overcome numerous hurdles as a student and an academic.

Asked what he thinks of students taking the easy route, Serrano said they’re only selling themselves short.

“A culture of effort and hard work should be inherent to learning. I worry many of our students now have the wrong idea, believing that the answer to any question can be obtained with a couple of clicks of the mouse,” he told the Chronicle.

“I tell them that years from now, their grades won’t matter. What will matter is how much they learned and how much stayed in their brain.”

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/08/2026 - 15:20

Coffee Lovers, Take Note: Lavazza Sounds Alarm, Suggest It May Be Time To Stock Up

Following the largest daily surge in Arabica coffee futures since the Dot-Com bubble, the head of Italian coffee giant Lavazza Group warned that prices are unlikely to fall over the next two years.

Giuseppe Lavazza, chairman of the Italian roaster, was quoted by Bloomberg as saying, "The market needs to have stability before it's time to think about a reduction of prices."

Lavazza explained that it will take two harvests and a massive rebuilding phase to replenish inventories and ease supply constraints, making lower prices unlikely over the next two years.

On Monday, Arabica futures in New York posted their biggest jump in 26 years, as worsening weather in Brazil and shrinking exchange-managed stockpiles fueled a rally. The violent move higher was not just weather-driven. A big short squeeze also materialized.

That sent 60-day volatility to the highest since 2014 levels - a period where weather-driven supply shock in Brazil dented global supplies. 

Making matters worse is the El Niño weather phenomenon that will start emerging in the months ahead and will create adverse weather conditions not just for top-grower Brazil but for other agri belts around the world.

"I think we are living in a long-lasting period of instability and uncertainty," Lavazza warned, adding, "Instability is the new constant."

Lavazza noted, "We need a couple of very strong crops from Brazil and Vietnam to rebuild stability. So maybe the first good crop is arriving," but we don't yet have evidence it will be as good as was expected at the end of 2025. 

He added: "The coffee market now shows fundamental changes compared to the past. We are living in an environment we don't know very well."

The takeaway for coffee lovers is simple: stock up.

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/08/2026 - 14:45

Are Flattening Curves And Style Rotations Deceptive Omens?

Authored by Michael Lebowitz via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

Bond market pundits often warn that bear yield curve flatteners or inverted yield curves ultimately lead to recessions. Similarly, some equity experts caution that periods of violent back-and-forth rotations among stock sectors and/or style factors are precursors to a market top.  Additionally, the combination of a bearish flattening trend and volatile equity rotations leads some analysts to forecast a recession, with concerning market repercussions.  

The argument we present in this article is that predicting economic or financial market activity is not as simple as following two indicators. Bear flattening trades, inverted yield curves, and frantic style (factor or sector) rotations are not definitive warnings of a market peak. They are extremely informative about where the economy, markets, and investor sentiment stand, but they do not tell investors whether or when the economic or market cycle will turn. Knowing where you are in a cycle is not the same as knowing when it ends. Confusing the two is a common mistake and can be a costly one for investors in late-cycle analysis.

Given that both indicators are currently flashing red, we explore how they can serve as important warnings of pending financial market and economic turbulence, but also as deceptive omens.

What The Yield Curve Tells Us

The shape of the yield curve, or the difference in yields between long and short-term US Treasury securities, indicates the market’s expected path for short rates plus a term premium. In other words, where does the market expect Fed Funds to be in the future, plus how much of a yield premium is the market paying investors to take on the inflation, economic, and oversupply risks of holding Treasury securities?

To help appreciate where the yield curve stands today and how it’s changed recently, we’ve included the graph below.

A notable feature of this long-term graph is that every time the yield curve flattened and inverted, i.e., the 2-year yield rose above the 10-year yield (the blue line fell below 0 on the y-axis), a recession (gray) followed. There is one exception. In 2022, the curve flattened, inverted, and then steepened, yet a recession has not materialized. 

Current Yield Curve Flattening

Recently, the yield curve has been flattening (declining) while bond yields have risen. In bond market parlance, that is called a bear market flattener (higher yields and a flattening yield curve). The table below shows that since late February, when the Iran conflict started, the 2-year note has risen by 76 basis points, the 10-year note by 46 basis points, and the 30-year bond by only 25 basis points. As a result, the 2/10-year yield curve flattened by 30 basis points and the 2/30-year curve by 51 basis points.

A bear flattening is the result of investors raising their collective expectations for higher short-term rates. This can be due to strong economic growth expectations and/or higher prices. At the same time, longer-maturity yields are less responsive, likely due to a subdued long-run growth forecast or a belief that higher inflation is temporary.

The flattening or inversion of the yield curve creates more restrictive financial conditions, acting as a brake on economic activity. An economy that warrants slowing is often one that is late in its economic cycle.

When the long-maturity yield falls below the short-maturity yield, i.e., it inverts, the usual interpretation is that investors expect future rate cuts because policy and/or rates are restrictive enough that the central bank will have to reverse course. However, that definition fails to consider the term premium, the compensation investors demand for holding longer-duration notes and bonds. A curve can flatten or even be inverted because the market expects rate cuts and/or because the term premium has compressed toward zero. Thus, it’s not definitive whether an inverted curve is due to expected rate cuts, well-anchored inflation, or forecasts of an economic downturn.

Equity Rotations

Equity leadership can be a tell of similar concerns, but through a different mechanism. Stocks are claims on future corporate cash flows, and those claims have duration. For instance, growth companies tend to have minimal cash flows or even run losses in the near term, but expectations are for large and growing earnings in the future. Thus, valuations for growth companies are based on distant-future cash flows and, accordingly, have a long duration.

Conversely, value companies generate cash flows that are nearer and more certain and are therefore considered to have shorter durations. When short-term interest rates rise and uncertainty about the future increases, the present value of distant cash flows is marked down far more than that of near cash flows.

For example, the 1-year present value of $100 at a 5% discount rate is $95.24, and at a 4% discount rate, it’s $96.15. The 1% change in rates impacts the present value by $0.91. Conversely, the 10-year present value of $100 at 5% and 4% is $61.39 and $67.56, respectively, resulting in a difference of $6.17 for the 1% change in rates. Accordingly, valuation multiples of growth companies tend to compress relative to those of value companies.

As we share below, in a hypothetical example, the value of the future cash flows of a value company with more upfront cash flows declines less with a 3% increase in the discount rate than that of a growth firm with more cash flows expected in the distant future.

A growth-to-value rotation is the equity market’s version of the yield curve flattening: both are duration-related repricings driven by the same change in the cost of money.

When Rotations Become Volatile

Typically, equity rotations in a late-cycle market become more volatile. In other words, no style or sector leads or lags for long stretches. These rapid rotations help clue us into a market regime that is becoming contested or changing.

Through the middle of an expansion, the macro picture is often clear with trend growth, accommodative or neutral monetary policy, and a steady discount rate. Because the regime is stable, leadership often remains in place for long periods as investor capital concentrates on the companies that benefit most from prevailing conditions. However, the market regime becomes challenged as changes in the broad economic and market environment are anticipated. Investors start asking questions such as:

• Is monetary policy changing?

• Is growth decelerating or reaccelerating?

• Is inflation sticky or transitory?

As new economic and corporate data feed into the market, the discount rate becomes more sensitive. The market is forced to continually toy with its assumptions, and leadership ping-pongs as a result.

The volatility of style leadership is a proxy for regime uncertainty. The whipsaw action itself, not necessarily which types of stocks lead or lag, is the tell. A market that cannot decide between value and growth is a market that cannot decide what the discount rate will be, which is to say, a market that senses the regime is changing beneath it.

False Signals

There is a complication with what we have presented. The yield curve can be distorted by forces unrelated to the business cycle, such as shifts in the bond term premium, large-scale asset purchases (QE) or their reversal (QT), and significant government bond supply.  Equity rotations are at times heavily influenced by momentum chases and bouts of speculative behavior. Moreover, the rise of passive investment strategies tends to accentuate momentum trends.

When other factors influence the yield curve or the volatility of equity rotations, the “forecast” embedded in the curve and rotations becomes muddied and can falsely signal a market and economic top.

Condition And Timing Indicators

This brings us to the distinction that should govern how the signals are used. There is a difference between a condition indicator and a timing indicator. A condition indicator describes the economic and market landscape. A timing indicator tells you when the next event arrives. Flat curves and unstable leadership are good indicators of conditions, but can make for poor timing indicators.

This concept is like weather forecasting. A falling barometer tells you the atmosphere favors a change in the weather, likely a storm. It does not tell you what day or time the storm will arrive. In fact, despite the drop in barometric pressure, the storm may never form. Reading a barometer as a surefire countdown clock to a storm is an error, no matter how reliably storms and falling pressure correlate.

Summary

If you cannot extract a time frame for an economic and market peak from these signals, then what purpose do they serve?

The answer is that they help us prepare for a widening series of potential outcomes. Today, for instance, with the yield curve flattening and a series of violent rotations, we are maintaining stricter stop-loss levels, paying closer attention to technical analysis, focusing on our SimpleVisor rotation analysis tools, and assessing our risk more frequently.

The signals suggest the regime may be changing, and we should be prepared for that possibility. However, until that becomes more evident, we must take advantage of what the market has to offer. 

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/08/2026 - 14:25

FOMC Minutes Show 'A Few' Fed Members Wanted To Hike In June, 'Majority' Fear Higher Inflation

Tl;dr: The minutes underscored a more hawkish tone on inflation. UBS traders noted that most participants cited scenarios in which price pressures could remain elevated, including stronger AI-related demand, the ongoing Middle East conflict and tariffs. In those cases, nearly all of those officials said some additional policy tightening would likely be warranted. Fed staff raised their inflation outlook for 2026 and 2027 compared with the April forecast, reflecting the effects of the Middle East war and AI-driven investment, while trimming their GDP growth outlook slightly.

*  *  *

Today's FOMC minutes will be scrutinized for further insight into policymakers' appetite for additional rate hikes and the thinking behind the Committee's hawkish shift at last month's meeting. The minutes are an account of the June 17th meeting and therefore will not reflect subsequent developments, including the softer-than-expected June nonfarm payrolls report or Chair Warsh's appearance at the ECB's Sintra Forum.

Since the last FOMC meeting (June 17th), the dollar has strengthened (on the hawkishness) and gold (and bitcoin) mirrored that with sizable declines. Stocks are flat, bond yields are higher (prices down), and oil remains lower, but accelerating in the last couple of days...

The market's expectations for Fed actions this year have surged back near the highs (up from around 20bps pre-Warsh to around 40bps today)...

And rather interestingly, the initial dramatic flattening of the yield curve on FOMC day has been entirely erased...

As Growth-related macro data has disappointed notably while Inflation-related macro data has remained sticky/high...

So with all that said (and with all eyes watching for confirmation of the hawkish bias), what does the FOMC want us to know about Warsh's first meeting in charge...

FOMC Minutes summary:

Participants generally saw upside risks to price stability as elevated, while downside risks to maximum employment goal had moderated a bit

Inflation

• The majority of participants commented that most measures of medium- and longer-term inflation expectations remained at levels consistent with the Committee's 2 percent objective.

• The majority of participants highlighted the possibility that, after several years of inflation above 2 percent, continued elevated inflation rates could begin to affect inflation expectations and wage- and price-setting decisions.

• A few participants commented that, in light of these developments, there was a case for raising the target range for the federal funds rate, but those participants indicated that they supported maintaining the current target range at this meeting.

• Most participants remarked on scenarios in which inflationary pressures would dissipate and inflation would soon begin to return to 2 percent. In such scenarios, almost all of these participants noted that it would likely be appropriate to maintain or eventually lower the target range for the federal funds rate.

  • Most participants, however, also pointed to scenarios in which, in the context of stable labor market conditions, inflation would remain elevated due to strong AI-related demand, the conflict in the Middle East, or the effects of tariffs.

  • In such scenarios, almost all of these participants indicated that some policy firming would likely be warranted to return inflation to 2 percent.

• Some participants observed that the sharp rise in input costs reported in business surveys raised concerns about the potential for higher energy and commodity costs to pass through more broadly to final goods prices.

• Several participants noted, however, that firms in their Districts reported that they had been cautious about increasing prices, citing concerns that higher prices could reduce demand or their market shares

• Several participants noted that the deceleration in housing services prices was likely to continue to be a source of disinflationary pressure.

The Fed appears to now be officially blaming AI for rise in core inflation: 

"Core goods price inflation had risen relative to a year earlier, which the staff judged as largely reflecting the effects of tariffs and AI-related price pressures"

...

Many participants noted that ongoing strong demand for AI infrastructure would likely sustain upward pressure on prices for technology products and electricity..."

...

"Some participants remarked that productivity gains associated with AI adoption would eventually reduce production costs and increase aggregate supply, which should put downward pressure on inflation, though they noted this effect would likely take time to materialize"

...

"Initial public offering activity in the U.S. appeared set to accelerate this year, with the proceeds expected to help fund ongoing investments in AI infrastructure."

Growth

• Most participants remarked that growth in economic activity that exceeded that of potential output, owing in part to strong AI business investment, could contribute to more persistent inflationary pressures.

• With respect to household spending, most participants observed that stock market gains and federal income tax refunds sent earlier this year had provided support to consumer spending, particularly among higher-income households.

• Most participants remarked that growth in economic activity that exceeded that of potential output, owing in part to strong AI business investment, could contribute to more persistent inflationary pressures.

• Some participants remarked that productivity gains associated with AI adoption would eventually reduce production costs and increase aggregate supply, which should put downward pressure on inflation, though they noted this effect would likely take time to materialize.

Communication

• A majority of participants remarked that they saw advantages in shortening the statement.

• Some participants commented that they welcomed the opportunity to review the Committee's communications tools and practices.

• Most participants emphasized that they preferred not to repeat the language in the previous postmeeting statement that had suggested an easing bias regarding the likely direction of the Committee's future interest rate decisions.

Policy

• Several participants remarked that they did not see the current policy stance as restrictive, while a few other participants commented that they saw the current policy stance as slightly restrictive.

FX

• There were no intervention operations in foreign currencies for the System's account during the intermeeting period.

Read the full FOMC Minutes here.

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/08/2026 - 14:05

Bezos' Blue Origin Seeks $10 Billion In First-Ever Outside Funding Round

Fresh off Elon Musk's SpaceX IPO, it appears that, for the first time, Blue Origin is preparing to raise outside capital in a deal that would value Jeff Bezos' rocket company at about $130 billion.

Andrew Ross Sorkin, financial columnist for The New York Times and a co-anchor of CNBC's Squawk Box, wrote in a DealBook report, "I've got a scoop on Blue Origin closing in on a big fund-raising round, which is expected to value Jeff Bezos' spaceflight company at about $130 billion."

"It would be the first time that outside investors buy a piece of Blue Origin in its 25-year history," Sorkin said.

Blue Origin is seeking $10 billion in a new funding round, with Coatue Management expected to lead with a $4 billion commitment. Bezos is preparing to contribute $2 billion, while the remaining $4 billion is expected to come from outside investors.

The fundraising would give Blue Origin a $130 billion valuation as it ramps up spending and tries to narrow the gap with SpaceX - yet that gap remains massive in terms of launch capacity.

In recent days, NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman said investigators have found that a "potential engine issue" was the cause of the catastrophic Blue Origin New Glenn rocket explosion that damaged part of a launch pad at Cape Canaveral on May 28.

Here's our video of the explosion at Launch Complex 36. It happened about 9 pm ET (0100 UTC) as Blue Origin was beginning a static fire test of its New Glenn rocket.

Watch live views: https://t.co/tm2wZQmAVD pic.twitter.com/PmbgQC6Qmq

— Spaceflight Now (@SpaceflightNow) May 29, 2026

Blue Origin has relied heavily on Bezos' personal wealth for years, including proceeds from Amazon stock sales. Bringing in outside money will accelerate spending and allow for more competition in America's space race, which the Trump administration has said is necessary to create a robust space industry.

Musk's SpaceX went public last month and raised $85 billion. SpaceX is now valued at nearly $2 trillion, despite a pullback in shares, currently trading around $150 in the premarket session.

A flurry of Wall Street analysts are turning incredibly bullish on SpaceX, with 12-month price targets ranging from Raymond James' $800 to Arete Research's $401 and Morgan Stanley's $300. That's because SpaceX has a launch moat that will be maintained for years - its launch capacity surpasses not just Bezos' rocket company, but entire nation states such as China and Russia combined. Read the report.

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/08/2026 - 13:45

The Great Migration: What The Dow-To-Gold Ratio Is Telling Us

Authored by Bryan Lutz, Editor at Dollarcollapse.com,

It takes about 13 ounces of gold to buy the Dow Jones Industrial Average. The Dow-to-gold ratio prices the entire American stock market. And it does it in the one currency no central bank can print. Over the past century, it tells the same story.

It measures when the US stock market is overvalued… when it’s promising too much.

And there are a lot of promises that don’t look as good as they should these days.

A bond pays only if the issuer stays solvent.

A dollar holds its value only if the people who print it show restraint.

Yet, tangible wealth answers to no one. An ounce of gold is worth an ounce of gold whether a single counterparty keeps their word, which is what makes gold an honest denominator in the Dow-to-Gold ratio.

The ratio goes up, and it comes down. During the great manias of the twentieth century, paper looked invincible: 18 ounces to buy the Dow in 1929, 28 in 1966, 41 at the top of the dot-com boom in 2000. Then the tide went out, bubbles popped and the markets turned to commodities over equities.

As the ratio goes down, eventually it hits a bottom.

The same Dow cost almost nothing in metal, barely 2 ounces in 1932 and close to a single ounce in 1980. So, greed priced the top. Fear, and sound money, priced the bottom.

A century in one line:

Every peak in paper has been repriced in gold.

Each top marked a moment the market trusted claims more than the things behind them, and each was followed by a long migration back toward metal that ran for years, not months.

Here is where we correct the record. The move off the 2000 top has been anything but tidy. The ratio fell to roughly 6 by 2011, then the long everything-rally, cheap money layered on cheap money, hauled it back above 19 by 2021. The 2026 equity melt-up has lifted it again, to about 13, even with gold sitting near record highs.

The same story, up close:

However, the long-term trend since 2000 points down. The path has been a bit of a switchback. Anyone waiting for a clean glide toward gold got a decade of reversals instead, which is why we distrust anyone selling a date for gold.

Gold’s historic floor sits between 1 and 2 ounces. From 13, most of that move is still ahead, whenever the switchback resolves. In my opinion, this is not the time to wager a standard 60/40 portfolio as a wager that the denominator stays at or around 13. Stocks, and bonds are unlikely promise-keepers, and believing the dollar behind them holds is just as risky. The denominator is not sitting still. Every deficit the Treasury runs and every dollar the Fed prints wears down the promises the old 60/40 portfolio depends on. For most of the past forty years, it paid anyway. This time it will not.

“All roads, in other words, lead to trouble of some sort, which makes year-ahead asset allocation pretty easy: you just own everything that protects you regardless of which road gets traveled.”

~ John Rubino, The Money Bubble

After twenty-five years, the score still reads the same. Paper is expensive, and gold is patient.

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/08/2026 - 13:25

Stellar 10Y Auction Stops Through, With 3rd Highest Foreign Demand On Record

Following yesterday's stellar 3Y auction, moments ago - with yields surging to the highest level since mid-May - the Treasury completed the sale of $39BN in a 9 Year 10 Month reopening of 10Y cusip QQ7, in what was another spectacular auction.

The note sale, which priced just after 1pm ET, stopped at a high yield of 4.580%, up from last month's 4.538%, and stopped through the When Issued 4.586% by 0.6bps, the biggest stop through since Sept '25.

The bid to cover rose to 2.593 from 2.565, which was the highest BtC also since last September, and obviously well above the six-auction average of 2.46.

The internals were also some of the best on record: foreign buyers (i.e., indirects) were awarded 81.5% of the auction, up from 78.21% in June and the 3rd highest on record.

And with Directs sliding to 10.73%, the lowest since April 25, Dealers were left holding just 7.8%, down from 9.5% in June and the lowest since January.

Overall, this was an extremely strong auction, perhaps the best 10Y of 2026, and with yields surging today, it shows that not only retail traders, but bond investors are also willing to buy the dips. 

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/08/2026 - 13:24

Russia Bans Diesel Exports, Assuring Even Higher Prices

As was widely speculated in recent days, Russia banned exports of diesel in order to avoid domestic shortages after a flurry of attacks by Ukrainian drones on the nation’s refineries.

“Today we introduced ban on exports of diesel,” Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said at the government’s meeting with President Vladimir Putin.

The decision will further squeeze global fuel markets, which are already under pressure due to the supply disruption caused by the Iran war. Russia's decision means that the recent surge in the diesel margins to record highs, which have completely disconnected with oil prices, are set to rise even more. 

Last year, Russia accounted for about 11% of global supplies of diesel, according to data compiled by Bloomberg from analytics firm Vortexa.

The logical corollary is what the DOE reported earlier today, namely that US product exports - which include diesel and other refined products - surged to a record high.

Exports of the fuel were previously banned only for traders and other sellers in Russia that don’t make their own fuel.

The diesel ban comes on top of existing restrictions on most shipments of gasoline and jet fuel. Russia has been struggling to ensure domestic oil-product supplies and to contain prices at the pump after drone attacks damaged several refineries. 

Ukraine’s intensified strikes pushed Russia’s crude-processing rates to multi-year lows. Many regions have been forced to impose some degree of fuel rationing because of the disruptions. 

Even before the ban, Russia’s diesel and gasoil exports were dropping significantly. During the first three weeks of June, its exports of diesel and gasoil averaged about 490,000 barrels a day, only slightly more than half of what the nation shipped to foreign markets in 2025, according to data compiled by Bloomberg from Vortexa.

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/08/2026 - 13:10

George Soros Angers Hamptons Residents After Massive Land Purchase

Authored by Luis Cornelio via Headline USA,

George Soros has long used his billions to influence politics, but now his family appears to be using that wealth to reshape its own backyard through a massive land grab in the Hamptons.

The Soros family has purchased 18 plots of land on Shelter Island, a Hamptons community, angering residents who are concerned that the billionaire’s presence in the area will trigger rising costs.

Soros’s shopping spree, reported by the New York Post on July 2, makes him and his sons, Alex and Gregory Soros, the largest private landowners on the approximately 8,000-acre island.

According to the Post, the massive purchases are not the first time the Soros family has angered residents. In 2020, Gregory snatched a 22-acre property on a quiet street.

However, the quiet atmosphere turned into chaos when construction trucks began arriving to build one of the island’s largest swimming pools.

Local plumbers and maids are required to sign non-disclosure agreements before being allowed to work on the Soroses’ properties, residents alleged.

Surveillance cameras have reportedly been installed on local streets, raising privacy concerns among residents of the island, which is only accessible by boat.

At one point, the Soros family reportedly purchased multiple homes along a single road and sought approval from local officials to install a fence to block access from other residents.

However, Shelter Island resident Steve Lenox is concerned that Soros will soon get his way.

“We can’t keep up with the lawyers that these millionaires have and they seem to build whatever they want,” Lenox told the Shelter Island Town Board during a meeting on June 29, according to the Post.

“That’s what’s ruining the island.”

Another resident, Mike Gaynor, echoed those concerns during the meeting, pointing to other communities that became unaffordable at the arrival of millionaires.

According to the Post, residents first noticed the Soros family’s presence on the island when the family installed a deer fence around one of its properties, allegedly in violation of local zoning rules.

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/08/2026 - 12:55