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Obama-Appointed Federal Judge Blocks Trump's EO Requiring Proof Of Citizenship To Vote

Via American Greatness,

A federal judge on Wednesday permanently blocked key portions of President Donald Trump’s executive order overhauling federal election procedures, ruling that the president exceeded his constitutional authority by attempting to impose new voting requirements without congressional approval.

U.S. District Judge Denise Casper, an appointee of former President Barack Obama, concluded that the Constitution gives primary authority over elections to the states and Congress, not the executive branch.

The ruling makes permanent a preliminary injunction Casper issued last year in a lawsuit filed by Democratic attorneys general from 19 states.

“While the Constitution vests the President with ‘executive Power’ and commands him to ‘take Care that the Laws be faithfully executed,’ it does not grant the President any specific powers over elections,” Casper wrote.

“As a result, the President ‘plays no direct role in the process of appointing electors,’ nor does he have authority to control the state officials who do,” she added.

Trump’s executive order sought to require documentary proof of U.S. citizenship to register to vote, prohibit states from counting mail ballots received after Election Day even if postmarked on time, and withhold certain federal funds from states that declined to comply.

Casper ruled that the administration lacked the authority to impose those changes through executive action.

In her 59-page opinion, the judge also rejected the administration’s justification for the order, writing that the Justice Department failed to establish the widespread election problems it cited in defending the policy.

“There is no evidence in this record of widespread ‘illegal voting, discrimination, fraud, and other forms of malfeasance and error’ within American elections, which the Executive Order purports to safeguard against,” Casper wrote.

The judge also concluded that the order would have disenfranchised thousands of voters.

The decision is another legal setback for the administration’s efforts to repair federal election procedures. Courts have repeatedly blocked or limited several election-related initiatives advanced during Trump’s second term.

Additional lawsuits are challenging a separate executive order aimed at creating a nationwide voter database and tightening mail voting requirements. Earlier this week, another federal judge blocked the administration’s attempt to use an immigration database to verify voter rolls, while courts have also rejected Justice Department efforts to obtain state voter registration records.

Despite the court rulings, Trump has continued urging Congress to enact proof-of-citizenship requirements through legislation.

The Republican-backed SAVE America Act passed the House but remains stalled in the Senate.

Trump renewed that effort Wednesday, saying he would withhold his signature from a bipartisan housing bill until Congress approves voter citizenship verification requirements.

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/25/2026 - 13:20

A River In Egypt

By Molly Schwartz, cross-asset strategist at Rabobank

A river in Egypt

Scott Bessent took to CNBC’s Squawk Box yesterday to opine on the situation with Iran. Bessent echoed Trump’s comments that any released Iranian assets are to remain under US Treasury oversight and are restricted to use for food and medicine. However, money is fungible, and any released cash that is used to help civilians may mean more cash from other places that can be used to support the IRGC’s interests

Bessent’s comments also called attention to another philosophical outlook on the war and the Administration’s initially stated— though seemingly not truly intended—goal of regime change. This is where the waters gets murky, and where we can climb into our Felucca and begin our journey along a river in Egypt, drifting, perhaps, into a bit of strategic “denial” about what regime change actually means. If, hypothetically of course, Operation Epic Fury succeeded in asserting regime change in Iran, where does the US go from here? If the new Ayatollah says he is willing to table plans of further enriching uranium and wants to align itself with US interests, should the US just keep firing missiles? Do you keep Iranian assets under lock and key, even if the regime has shown you that it has changed?

.@SecScottBessent: "Dollar dominance is essential, and everything @POTUS is doing here — if you look, the new Venezuela... the dollar is going to be the centerpiece of their trade... We're seeing in the Iranian negotiations, the Iranians will be invoicing in dollars. Everything… pic.twitter.com/5IsPYo8aSh

— Rapid Response 47 (@RapidResponse47) June 24, 2026

Bessent said himself, “we didn’t have a regime change, but we have changed the regime.” If that is the genuine perspective of the Trump Administration, then the deal may not be as bad for the US as many perceive it to be. As our Global Strategist, Michael Every, has noted on multiple occasions, show of strength means everything in the arena of Middle Eastern geopolitics. There is a possibility that the current hardliners in the IRGC aren’t actually so hardline anymore, but are only presenting as such. Note that this is not a new base case for our outlook by any means (you can read more about our Hormuz outlook here), but food for thought.

If the regime truly has changed, this also could have big implications for USD dominance. Bessent noted that a born-again Venezuela is shifting back towards USD invoicing, and that post-deal Iran is likely to do so as well.

Brent crude oil fell below $75/bbl for the first time since the war in Iran began, sending US Treasury markets into a tailspin. US 2-year yields dropped almost 6bp to 4.21, while the 10-year sunk almost 10bp—the largest one-day downward move since October 2025. With “peace in the Middle East,” the case for hikes is losing water by the day, with the market now pricing in 27bp worth of hikes by October, and only 40bp worth of hikes at the peak—a significant downgrade from Monday, when two full hikes had been priced in by the April 2027 FOMC decision.

Such a dramatic move in rates would normally suggest a weaker dollar, but USD was actually the best-performing G10 currency on a one-day view and the best month-to-date. The DXY index continued its climb from last week’s FOMC meeting to 101.6—the highest level since May 2025. Meanwhile, EUR/USD broke below crucial support at 1.14, fueling additional EUR selling, with the pair trading at 1.1356 at the time of writing. While the following appears to be more of an instance of correlation rather than causation, it is also important to note that yesterday’s move coincided with comments from Bessent—perhaps another slow turn of the Felucca—that USD can remain strong even when interest rates are being cut.

While USD is soaring, JPY is plummeting. USD/JPY spent the day yesterday approaching the July 3, 2024 high of 162, with the 14D RSI at 71.83 suggesting that USD/JPY is overbought. According to Bloomberg, Bessent and Japanese Finance Minister Katayama spoke over the phone, with Katayama telling reporters that “she and Bessent agreed to take ‘bold’ steps on currencies if needed,” and said the nations are increasingly “aligned” on foreign-exchange policy.

The Bank of Canada released its Summary of Deliberations from the June 10 decision, written on papyrus. Recent Canadian economic data suggest that the Canadian economy has slipped into a technical recession, with two consecutive quarters of negative quarterly growth. The Governing Council piled into a felucca of their own, racing up de Nile, justifying that higher-frequency data suggest a “resumption of growth in the second quarter,” and that while the Canadian economy is weak, it is “not clearly in a recession.”

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/25/2026 - 12:40

French Navy Boards 5th Russian 'Shadow Fleet' Vessel Off Europe Since September

French President Emmanuel Macron has announced yet another highly provocative naval seizure of a Russian so-called shadow fleet vessel. 

"On Tuesday, the French navy boarded the oil tanker Deliver as it was passing off the coast of Sicily in breach of maritime law," Macron wrote in a post on X, revealing the prior interdiction that took place earlier in the week.

Illustrative, via French Navy

Reports say it flew a Cameroonian flag and was sailing from Russia's Baltic port of Primorsk, whereupon it was boarded by French forces over a falsified registration, according to the French maritime prefecture.

France's navy escorted then the tanker to an anchorage location, where it was subject to deeper inspections my maritime authorities.

It marks no less than the fifth such boarding of a 'shadow fleet' vessel suspected of transiting sanctioned Russian goods or energy off a European coastline since September.

"We will not allow the 'shadow fleet' to circumvent sanctions and finance Russia's war effort," Macron said.

The apparent legal justification France's navy has relied on for such actions is the practice of "flag-hopping" - which involves a crew repeatedly changing displayed flags, along with often invalid registrations to thwart international tracking monitors.

The last several seized tankers were also flying flags of African nations, and these interdictions have stretched back through last year. 

France's military released footage of the boarding of the 'Delivery'...

French President Emmanuel Macron has announced that the French military intercepted the Russian "shadow fleet" tanker 'Deliver' on Tuesday as it transited off the coast of Sicily in violation of maritime law. pic.twitter.com/T3sE95BrT1

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) June 25, 2026

In some instances, Russia has been sending military escorts - which of course has seen French and European militaries hold off executing any action.

As a result of this latest intercept, it's likely Russia's navy will increase its military escorts, which has been more common in northern European waters, given the proximity to Russia.

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/25/2026 - 12:20

Trump Singles Out Exxon, Chevron, Shell, And BP Over High Gas Prices

By Irina Slav for OilPrice.com

President Donald Trump has listed Exxon, Chevron, Shell, and BP as being among companies responsible for excessively high fuel prices, following the announcement of a federal government probe into price-gouging earlier in the week.

“Oil prices have come down so much and we are not seeing anything at the pump by comparison the way they should be,” the U.S. president told media, as quoted by the BBC. “We should be, in my opinion, at $2.25 [a gallon] right now at the pump and we are higher than that.”

The U.S. national average for a gallon of regular gasoline was $3.928 as of Wednesday, down from $4.0250 a week ago, but up from $3.2240 a year ago, according to AAA data. GasBuddy reported a national average of $3.85 per gallon as of Monday. Still, fuel prices have been on a decline for six weeks in a row, with diesel also dipping below $5 per gallon for the first time in weeks, bringing relief to industrial fuel consumers.

“The big Oil Companies are not dropping their price at the pump commensurate with the sharply lower prices they are paying for Oil. Those prices are dropping ‌like a rock! In other words, customers are being "gouged",” Trump wrote on TruthSocial late on Tuesday. “I have instructed the DOJ to immediately start looking into this. Gasoline prices better start going down a lot faster than what I’m seeing!” the U.S. president also wrote.

In response, the American Petroleum Institute said that retail fuel prices “don't move in lockstep with crude oil”. “Our industry shares the goal of delivering relief at the pump and restoring stability to global energy markets,” API spokeswoman Bethany Williams also said.

“President Trump was clear all along that there would be short-term, temporary disruptions to energy markets, and that oil and gas prices will quickly fall as soon as the Iran situation is resolved,” a White House spokesperson told media, as quoted by the BBC.

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/25/2026 - 12:00

Supreme Court Allows Trump Admin To Remove Deportation Protections For Syrians & Haitians

Authored by Sam Dorman via The Epoch Times,

The Supreme Court has allowed the Department of Homeland Security’s (DHS’s) attempt to remove deportation protections for nationals of Haiti and Syria.

In a 6–3 decision on June 25, a majority of the court said federal law barred judicial review of non-constitutional arguments against the department’s determinations.

Justice Samuel Alito wrote the majority opinion, which said the sole constitutional argument in the case would likely fail.

“Citing statements made by President Trump and former Secretary of Homeland Security Kristi Noem, one set of respondents advances an equal protection claim that Haiti’s TPS [Temporary Protected Status] designation was terminated because of the racial makeup of that country’s population,” Alito wrote.

“But, ironically, one of respondents’ other arguments undermines the equal protection claim by offering a strong, race-neutral explanation for Haiti’s termination: namely, that the current administration, which has terminated every TPS designation that has come up for renewal, simply opposes the TPS program, at least as it has been implemented in the past.”

During oral argument in April, the Justice Department argued that lower court judges had exceeded their authority in blocking DHS’s decisions to terminate protected status for those groups.

Some of the arguments focused on a portion of the Immigration and Nationality Act that says, “There is no judicial review of any determination of the [DHS Secretary] with respect to the designation, or termination or extension of a designation, of a foreign state under this subsection.”

The decision is expected to impact thousands of Haitians and Syrians who received temporary protected status.

Developing...

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/25/2026 - 11:25

75% Of US GDP Growth In The First Quarter Was Due To AI

On the surface, today's final revision (aka 3rd estimate) of the US Q1 GDP print was unremarkable: Real GDP grew 2.1% annualized in the first quarter, a reversal of last month's downward revision of 1.6%, but back to where the original print was when it was reported in April, when the BEA reported 2.0% growth. 

The print reflected a downward revision to imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, that was partly offset by a sharp downward revision to consumer spending.

Taking a closer look at the components, net exports contribution being revised sharply higher to -0.4% from -1.3% previously drove the improvement while consumption was much weaker. Real personal consumption expenditures revised sharply lower to 0.5% (saar) from 1.4% (saar). This is unexpected as virtually everyone was convinced that bumper tax rebates from Trump's OBBBA "stimulus" would push Q1 personal spending; in retrospect, spending in Q1 was far weaker than expected. 

That said, real spending in May climbed 0.3% (3.2% annualized), while April was revised to 0% from 0.1%. This suggests an okay pace of spending but not boomy across the two months (1.6% annualized) considering bumper tax refunds putting extra money in people's pockets. 

Yet, as before, when we get to fixed investment, something remarkable emerges: Residential housing investment declined 1.7% and subtracted 0.3% from the bottom line GDP print. This was the 5th consecutive decline as residential investment has declined, and 7th of the past 8 quarters. To be expected at a time of rising interest rates. 

But Nonresidential fixed investment was the outlier, soaring by 8%, and responsible for 1.42% of the 2.1% bottom line print.

Let's take a closer look at the breakdown.

The chart below shows quarterly annualized GDP growth broken down by components. It shows that Q1 GDP grew at exactly 2.100% in Q1. Also notable is that traditionally strong consumption, added just 0.37% of the bottom line number, as per the discussion above; this was offset by net trade being a far smaller detractor from GDP growth at -0.37% with, inventories (0.23%) and government (0.74%) providing a modest offset. 

The highlighted block is Fixed Investment, which contributed 1.11%. However, keep in mind that residential fixed investment subtracted 0.30% from the total number, which means that Nonresidential fixed investment was responsible for 1.42% of the 2.1% GDP print.

Focusing on the fixed investment component, we find the following: as noted above, it was all about non-residential fixed investment.

Zooming into this segment, we find that Nonresidential equipment grew by 5.8%, or contributing 0.8% to the 2.1% GDP, while Intellectual Property products grew just over 5.3%, and added 0.74% to the bottom line GDP. 

While IP is clear - it consists primarily of Software, the kind that one uses to create and develop AI tools, as well as R&D - the components behind Nonresidential equipment need a closer look again, and here we find that Information Processing equipment, i.e., data centers, grew at a stunning 14%, comprising virtually all of the 0.81% contribution to 2.1% GDP growth.

And there you have it: between Software (0.74% of the GDP growth) and Nonresidential Equipment (0.81%), AI - which was the primary driver behind growth in both - contributed just over 1.5% to GDP growth of 2.1%; in other words about 74% of all US growth in Q1 was due to AI.

Another way to visualize the remarkable impact of spending on "computers" is the chart below: it clearly shows just how reliant the US has become on spending on computer products.

And that's why AI is now not only a market bubble, but it has become a core anchor propping up the entire US economy; it's also why the US government will have no choice but to backstop it once the inevitable AI bubble pops. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/25/2026 - 11:10

Bayer Stock Soars After Supreme Court Guts Core Legal Theory Behind 1000s Of Roundup Cases

Bayer AG shares soared in Frankfurt on Thursday morning after the Supreme Court sided with the German pharmaceutical and life sciences giant in a major Roundup ruling expected to block thousands of lawsuits alleging it failed to warn consumers that the weedkiller could cause cancer.

Bloomberg reported that the Supreme Court voted 7 - 2 to throw out a $1.25 million jury verdict won by Missouri resident John Durnell, who blamed years of Roundup exposure for his non-Hodgkin's lymphoma.

The first opinion is in Monsanto v. Durnell. The court holds that the federal law governing pesticide labels bars a lawsuit against Monsanto, the maker of Roundup weedkiller, for failing to include a warning on the label about the risks of cancer.https://t.co/cPzdF5lgH5

— SCOTUSblog (@SCOTUSblog) June 25, 2026

Justice Brett Kavanaugh wrote for the majority that federal law "demands" uniform pesticide labels and that the state-law "failure-to-warn" claim at issue in the case "would require a cancer warning on Roundup's label, a requirement 'in addition to' and 'different from' the label required by EPA."

Justices Ketanji Brown Jackson and Neil Gorsuch dissented.

NEWS: The Supreme Court just gutted the central legal theory behind tens of thousands of Roundup cancer lawsuits.

In a 7-2 ruling in Monsanto v. Durnell, the justices held that federal pesticide law preempts state "failure-to-warn" claims, meaning a jury can't punish Bayer-owned… pic.twitter.com/zrIsgJDBu5

— Benjamin Ryan (@benryanwriter) June 25, 2026

The ruling is a major milestone in Bayer's years-long court battle over Roundup, which it acquired from Monsanto for $63 billion in 2018. The company has since stopped using glyphosate in Roundup products sold at major retailers.

Earlier this year, Bayer announced a proposed $7.25 billion class action settlement to resolve tens of thousands of current and future lawsuits.

Shares of Bayer soared 20%...

...marking the largest intraday gain since March 2003.

Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Holly Froum wrote in a note before the high court ruling that about $787 million in existing Roundup verdicts could be affected by the decision.

To sum up, the high court ruled that consumers cannot sue Bayer over the absence of a cancer warning on Roundup labels because federal regulators had already concluded that such a warning was not required.

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/25/2026 - 10:55

Bitcoin Tumbles As Strategy Slammed, Faces Massive $10 Billion Option Expiry

Moments after the cash market opened, bitcoin plunged almost $3,000 in a matter of seconds to $58,000, on no news, sending the price to the lowest level since Sept 2024. 

This was a strange move for bitcoin because while stocks do tend to move rapidly at cash open as that's when options restart trading (as we have noted, in recent months most investors are trading almost exclusively in options and avoiding the underlying securities completely), bitcoin trades within its own ecosystem that is open 24/7 and is - or rather should be - far less reliant on key stock market time triggers. 

Instead, the trigger for the drop was not bitcoin but rather its biggest treasury sponsor, Strategy, which plunged as much as 8% in what now appears to be a coordinated effort to send MSTR stock sharply lower using puts (hence the move at exactly 9:30am when option trading started), which in turn has led to lower prices on its various tranches of perpetual preferred stocks, and ultimately, lead to more bitcoin selling on fears Michael Saylor will have to sell even more bitcoin. 

However, today it's not just MSTR that is depressing bitcoin: the largest cryptocurrency is facing a massive options expiry that risks putting more pressure on a market already struggling with fading institutional demand and macroeconomic headwinds.

According to Bloomberg, about $10 billion of notional value in Bitcoin options is set to expire on Deribit, the largest crypto options venue, at 4 p.m. Friday in Singapore. Because most of those options are bullish bets and Bitcoin has been falling, there’s potential for traders to turn defensive or outright bearish. 

“This is a book that has been positioned for higher prices over the medium term, now being marked against a spot that has slipped,” said Jean-David Pequignot, chief commercial officer at Deribit. “The consensus long-call positioning has drifted offside.” 

After dipping as low as $58K, the lowest level in almost 2 years, bitcoin was trading below its 200-week moving average, a technical level that can signal a prolonged bear market.

The Bitcoin options expiring on Deribit represent about 37% of open interest, with the ratio of puts to calls at 0.83, according to Pequignot, indicating more bets are on Bitcoin appreciating. 

The bulk of call open interest is now out of the money, meaning the contracts have no intrinsic value at current prices. Puts, by contrast, are clustered around $60,000 to $65,000 and $70,000 to $75,000, and mostly in the money.

Of course, just because there is a big expiry doesn't mean more selling is guaranteed: “expiry mechanics clear positioning; they do not set direction,” said Adam Haeems, head of asset management at Tesseract Group. But the key issue is still a call-skewed market falling into thin quarter-end and summer liquidity, he said.

“Thin books plus a concentrated expiry mean Friday’s move likely overshoots in whichever direction flow tips first, then mean-reverts once dealer hedging unwinds,” Haeems said. If dealers finds themselves in a sharp negative gamma position, then any subsequent moves in bitcoin will be significantly amplified. 

Any sharp move around expiry may say more about positioning than a lasting shift in trend. Haeems said the more important test will come in the first full week of July, after the quarterly book has cleared and leverage has been reduced.

Meanwhile, the flow picture continues to deteriorate as US-listed Bitcoin funds posted almost $3 billion of net outflows in June so far, and that ignores the relentless pressure on Michael Saylor's Strategy and its various tranches preferred securities.

Griffin Ardern, co-founder of Primal Fund, said option traders’ longer-dated bearish bias toward Bitcoin has intensified, while hawkish Federal Reserve commentary and elevated Treasury yields suggest investors are pricing in tighter liquidity.

“Under conditions of contracting liquidity, BTC typically does not fare so well,” he said.
 

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/25/2026 - 10:40

A Golden Opportunity Just Appeared

Authored by Matt Badiali via DailyReckoning.com,

The headlines are screaming that gold is falling.

And it’s true. The price dipped below $4,000 per ounce for the first time since November 2025.

This seems backward. There are multiple wars going on in the world. Fuel prices are high. Gold is supposed to be the “safe haven” asset. Why isn’t it going up?

Well, as analysts from LPL Financial, the largest broker-dealer in the U.S. said, gold is doing what it’s supposed to do. It’s acting as financial insurance.

Analysts at giant bank, Goldman Sachs estimated that if the war lasted into April, it would cause economic contractions.

• UAE: -3%

• Saudi Arabia: -5%

• Kuwait/Qatar: -14%

• Iran: -15% (IMF estimate)

In addition, countries like Egypt, Tunisia, Iraq, and Turkey have fragile economies. They can’t afford to have fuel costs spikes.

Because oil is priced in dollars, something these countries don’t have enough of, higher prices create severe economic disruptions.

Turkey faced soaring inflation due to high fuel costs. The country’s central bank sold gold to offset the impact. Turkey sold $3 billion’ worth of gold in a single week in March.

This is gold as an insurance policy. When your economy runs on oil exports that don’t get delivered or you can’t afford the soaring fuel prices, you cash in your insurance policy…gold.

That’s what’s going on in many countries today. Instead of storing value, gold is sold to create liquidity.

And so much of it got sold that it pushed the price down nearly 35%.

And as you would expect, falling gold prices are sending shock waves through the mining industry. As you can see below, the VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) is down nearly 35% since March 2026:

This is a combination of falling gold prices and investors taking profits. From January 2025 to March 2026, GDX rose 240%. That’s a lot of profit to be cashed in. And investors are taking that money off the table.

That’s good news for gold investors because it will create buying opportunities. These gold miners still make a ton of money. So, the price to earnings ratios are even lower now than before.

But I have my eye on the development projects. And as gold prices fall, it will send those stocks down even further. These are the companies building new mines. They have no revenue and need money to build their mines. For many analysts, that presents too much risk.

But to me, that’s an opportunity. Remember, all the current mines are running out of metal. They need to replace them with new mines. That’s why the development projects are so valuable. And they don’t lose their long-term value because of a short-term dip in the gold price.

And make no mistake, this dip won’t last long. It took massive selling to push it down this far. I expect to see a huge rebound soon, as those sales trickle down.

For those of you who love gold, this is an opportunity to add physical at a great price. For those of you who like speculations, the gold stocks are ripe for the taking. Use this dip to add to your positions or build a whole new portfolio.

You don’t get these opportunities often. Recognize this one and use it to make some money.

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/25/2026 - 10:20

Afghan Asylum Seeker Sentenced For Raping Goats And 6-Month-Old Lamb

Via Remix News,

A 19-year-old Afghan man, Massoud S., was tried Monday at the Aix-en-Provence court for sexual assault against six goats, one of which died, and a 6-month-old lamb at an educational farm. He has been convicted and sentenced to 30 months in prison and a ban from French territory.

Afghan migrant Massoud S. was initially charged with “serious abuse or act of cruelty against a domestic, tame, or captive animal.” He continued to deny the rapes in this case despite DNA evidence and being caught redhanded raping a goat. He even told a court psychologist that anyone who did rape the animals only did it to “not rape a woman” since “a goat could not identify him afterward.”

The sexual assaults occurred between February and April and on top of the DNA evidence, his phone location also had him pinged to the crime scene.

“I don’t know how to explain it,” he told the magistrates regarding the ample evidence against him.

Massoud S. reportedly repeatedly raped the animals, which all belonged to an animal shelter and educational farm “Un moment” in Les Pennes-Mirabeau, near Marseille.

Cassandra Sortino, the owner of the establishment, remains deeply traumatized by the mass rape of her animals by the Afghan man.

“We set up this association to do good, and the animals were in danger in our own structure. We cannot explain it morally,” she testified. “We feel like we failed.”

According to Swiss outlet 20 Minutes, “Representing herself without a lawyer, she searched in vain for an answer to her central question: why?”

The incident began in February when she noticed that there were ligature marks on some of the animals’ legs. A veterinarian discovered injuries to the animals’ genitals and traces of blood.

This was enough evidence for Sortino to install a surveillance camera, where she saw a man sneaking into her property and raping animals. She remained in contact with police, and in April, the Afghan man was finally arrested. At the moment he was apprehended, police discovered the man in the middle of the act of raping the goat, wearing latex gloves, and with his pants down.

Massoud S. claimed that he was in the barn because he missed his train on the night he was arrested to Marseille, where he lives in an asylum seeker center in the city’s 3rd arrondissement.

Massoud S. required a translator during his trial but said he felt “full of shame” when describing his strict religious upbringing. He arrived in France in November 2025 and claims he lost his family during a bombing raid in his home country.

A psychiatrist reported the man suffers from no mental disorders, however, he reportedly said while talking about the rapes: “We make a big deal out of it when they’re just animals,”

“I’m a normal person,” he said when confronted with these statements in court.

He has been sentenced to 30 months in prison for charges reclassified as “abuse leading to death.” He is also banned from French territory and must register into a database for sexual offenders.

Sortino is not done with the Afghan and plans to appeal the sentence.

“I would have liked to understand,” Sortino said.

Previous cases

Last year in Germany, a shocking case has emerged from the beautiful town of Oberneufnach in Bavaria, which involved a 52-year-old Turkish asylum seeker allegedly breaking into a stable and sexually abusing ponies.

The man, who is from a refugee shelter in the nearby town of Anhofen, was arrested after he was caught on surveillance video.

The man broke into the horse farm at 6:45 p.m. while the family was having dinner. They heard the dog barking and then looked on surveillance monitors, where they saw the man in the stable with his pants down on top of one of the animals.

The boyfriend then ran to the stables to chase down the man, but he had already fled the scene. He continued his pursuit of the suspect though and eventually caught him. Police arrived and placed the man under arrest.

In 2023, a 27-year-old suspect was arrested after he was caught on a surveillance camera raping a pony at a stable south of Hamburg. The 18-year-old pony, which is named “Carrie,” was abused by the man at 1 a.m., with footage showing the man calmly walking onto the property and starting to attack the defenseless animal.

Steffi B. released the footage to German newspaper Bild, which posted stills of the perpetrator on its web publication.

The attack happened in Birkenmoor, which is in Harburg, just a few kilometers from the Hamburg city center.

Even the petting zoo at the park has not been safe. In 2017, a Syrian migrant raped a pony there in front of children.

“My babysitter was out with our son in Görlitzer Park. They witnessed the man sexually assault the pony,” one woman told Berliner Morgenpost at the time. The babysitter took a photo of the man as he raped the pony and provided it to police. The migrant was banned from the petting zoo in response, but it is unclear if he was ever charged by police.

Read more here...

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/25/2026 - 09:15

Trump Requests $88 Billion Supplemental Funding Package Focused On Iran War Funds, Farm Aid, And Ebola Response

President Donald Trump formally asked Congress on Wednesday for $87.6 billion in supplemental appropriations - your tax dollars (for our American readers) - to cover urgent needs stemming from the U.S. military campaign against Iran, provide economic relief to American farmers, and respond to the Ebola outbreak in Central Africa.

The request, sent in a letter to House Speaker Mike Johnson, comes as the administration seeks to replenish military stocks and address operational expenses from Operation Epic Fury, the joint U.S.-Israeli military effort launched on February 28, 2026.

Breakdown of the Funding Request

According to the White House letter and reporting from multiple outlets, the package allocates funds across several priorities:

• Department of War (Pentagon): $67.146 billion - the largest share. This includes approximately $21 billion for munitions to rebuild stockpiles, substantial funding for operations and readiness, $2.4 billion for drones, $5.1 billion for cybersecurity and autonomy, fuel costs, and $12.1 billion for classified programs.
• American Farmers (USDA): $11.1 billion - $10 billion in temporary economic assistance for row and specialty crops in 2026, plus $1.1 billion to help Florida agricultural producers recover from winter storm damage.
• Ebola Outbreak Response: $1.4 billion - focused on detection, contact tracing, surveillance, humanitarian assistance in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Uganda, and Kenya, plus medical evacuation and departure support for U.S. citizens.
• Infrastructure and Other: $500 million for restoration and capital projects in Washington, D.C.; $1 billion toward modernizing Penn Station in New York City; plus smaller amounts for the Department of Energy and other items.

The administration described most of the request as addressing “urgent needs related to Operation Epic Fury” while also tackling other critical domestic and international priorities.

Background: Operation Epic Fury

Operation Epic Fury - the Israeli-US (Master-Blaster) war on Iran which has split the Republican party in exchange for no obvious benefit to Americans who are on the hook for tens of billions of dollars - saw four months of intense fighting from late February to early May 2026. The goal was to destroy Iran’s ballistic missile capabilities, missile and drone production facilities, navy, air defenses, and efforts to develop or acquire nuclear weapons and related technology.

Diplomatic efforts continue, including a June 2026 memorandum of understanding signed in Islamabad aimed at formally ending the conflict within a 60-day window, though disputes remain over issues such as IAEA access to damaged nuclear sites.

The Trump administration has characterized the campaign as a decisive success achieved through “peace through strength,” while critics have raised questions about costs, civilian casualties in some strikes, and broader strategic outcomes.

Political Reactions and Congressional Outlook

The supplemental faces a challenging path in Congress. It requires bipartisan support to advance in the Senate, where 60 votes are typically needed to overcome procedural hurdles.

• Democrats have largely opposed funding what many describe as an unnecessary or illegal war and are expected to resist the package.
• Republicans show divisions: Many support replenishing military capabilities and providing farm aid, but some express skepticism about the war’s handling and costs. Farm-state lawmakers are already signaling they may seek to increase the agricultural assistance beyond the proposed $11.1 billion.

House Republican leaders have indicated they will review the details carefully, citing Congress’s constitutional role in funding national defense. The request arrives amid broader debates over the administration’s push for a significantly larger Pentagon budget.

The package also includes regulatory updates favored by some farm-state Republicans, such as measures related to hemp-derived products and year-round sales of E15 ethanol-blended fuel. These provisions aim to support agricultural interests but have drawn opposition from other sectors.

Bundling military, humanitarian, agricultural, and infrastructure spending in one supplemental is a common legislative tactic but often draws criticism for obscuring priorities or adding unrelated items.

What Happens Next?

Congressional appropriators will now examine the request. Passage is far from guaranteed given partisan divides over the Iran conflict and competing budget priorities. The administration has urged swift action, emphasizing the need to restore military readiness and address other urgent matters.

This supplemental represents one of the largest emergency funding requests in recent years, reflecting both the scale of the military operation against Iran and the administration’s efforts to address domestic economic pressures on farmers and global health risks.

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/25/2026 - 09:00

Continuing Jobless Claims At 3-Month-Highs, Initial Claims Tumble Back To 2021 Levels

The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits for the first time fell last week to 215k (after hitting four month highs last week), well below the 225k expectations and back to the same levels it was at in 2021...

New Jersey and Oregon saw the biggest WoW rise in initial jobless claims while Minnesota and Pennsylvania saw the biggest decline...

At the same time, continuing jobless claims picked up to 1.821 million Americans - the highest in 3 months...

The bottom line is that initial claims remain low by historical standards and continue to run below year-ago levels, reinforcing the more hawkish 'labor market is resilient' framework introduced last week.

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/25/2026 - 08:55

Services Costs Drag Fed's Favorite Inflation Signal To 3-Year Highs, Savings Rate Holds Near Lows

After accelerating in March and April, The Fed's favorite inflation indicator - Core PCE (a measure of price changes in consumer goods and services that excludes volatile food and energy costs) - was expected to rise once again in May.

And it did with the crucial inflation signal up 0.3% MoM (as expected) and up 3.4% YoY (as expected) and at the highest level since Nov 2023...

Services costs picked up again with Durable goods flat and non-durable goods inflation decelerating...

The headline PCE jumped 0.4% MoM (slightly less than the 0.5% exp) and up 4.1% YoY (as expected) - highest since April 2023...

The impact of the war is evident in crude prices and the PCE's energy index, but arguably, this is as bad as it gets in terms of inflation...

But PCE signals that the soaring cost of semiconductors (the software and accessories component receives about 30 times the weight in PCE as it does in CPI) - has stalled...

Higher prices were met with higher spending (+0.7% MoM notional) and higher income growth (+0.7% MoM)...

While Spending has been accelerating, income growth HAD been slowing but accelerated markedly last month...

...with both private sector and government workers seeing wage growth acceleration...

Spending continues to run well ahead of inflation (real personal spending up 2.1% YoY)...

Despite an upward revision to the personal savings rate every month of 2026, May was 3.0%, still lowest since 2022

With the savings rate barely above record lows, it seems that Americans are digging into their savings to keep up with inflation. No wonder sentiment is so low...

Howver, as Goldman's Rich Privorotsky notes, the challenge is that most inflation data now feels inherently backward looking, predating the collapse in oil back toward pre-conflict levels.

Given Warsh's new mantra of no forward guidance we probably should have more volatility around these releases than we have seen historically.

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/25/2026 - 08:45

Futures Jump As Micron Revives AI Euphoria, Oil Erases War Gains

Global stocks and S&P futures are higher while Nasdaq futures are on a tear after Micron’s sales forecast blew the lights out, brushing aside fears over a near-term pullback in the AI trade, while Qualcomm set aggressive targets at its investor day in New York. As of 8:00am ET, a revival of the AI demand theme is sending contracts on the Nasdaq 100 up 2.1% while S&P 500 futures are up a more modest 0.7%. MU is +18% pre-market, pushing Semis higher (SOXX +5%, DRAM +12%) while Mag7 - the companies which enable all this chip spending - are mostly lower. As Goldman's Delta 1 desks asks, how much longer will they be willing to see their stock languish while funding semiconductor outperformance? Korea's KOSPI rallied 5.5% overnight (closing well off the highs) and remains ~2.4% below pre-Flash Crash levels. While the AI theme is bid pre-market, this is not an ‘Everything Rally’ with Cyclicals seeing a mixed performance with Banks flat, Regional Banks lower, Energy down with crude, Discretionary mixed, and Materials flat. Within Defensives, Staples are weaker, HC mixed, and AI-related Utils names are higher. Brent crude dropped 1.4% to below $73 a barrel, erasing all Iran war gains, on fears of a supply glut following a ramp-up in flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Bond yields are flat to +2bp as the yield curve steepens, but the USD starts the session lower for the first time in 6 sessions. US economic data calendar includes May personal income/spending, 1Q GDP revision, May durable goods orders, weekly jobless claims and May Chicago Fed national activity index (8:30am) and June Kansas City Fed manufacturing activity (11am). Fed speaker slate includes Bowman (8:45am), Goolsbee (2pm, 6:30pm) and Williams (3:40pm).

In premarket trading, Micron is 16% higher premarket after its quarterly sales forecast blew past estimates; Qualcomm is up 12% after it estimated more than $15 billion of annual revenues by fiscal 2029 from AI components in data centers. Both look set to challenge all-time highs today. Meanwhile, as semiconductor stocks surge after Micron’s update, the Mag 7 hyperscalers who fund them are all down: Microsoft (MSFT) -0.4%, Amazon (AMZN) -0.5%, Meta Platforms (META) -0.2%, Apple (AAPL) -0.5%, Alphabet (GOOGL) -1.2%

• ARS Pharmaceuticals (SPRY) sinks 20% after the biotech company said there has been no new commercial formulary additions or coverage decisions for its epinephrine nasal spray, neffy, in the July 1 cycle.
• Bio-Techne (TECH) climbs 20% after Merck agreed to acquire the company for $73 per share in cash, representing a total enterprise value of around $11.3 billion.
• BlackBerry’s (BB) US-listed shares rise 8% after the software company boosted its revenue forecast for the full year.
• Dollar Tree (DLTR) falls 5% after saying Mantle Ridge and another stockholder sold 12.8 million shares to JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs.
• HB Fuller (FUL) slips 8% after agreeing to acquire Advanced Medical Solutions Group Plc, a British maker of tissue-healing medical products, for $868 million.
• IBM (IBM) gains 3% after the technology giant unveiled the world’s first sub-1 nanometer chip technology.
• Jefferies Financial (JEF) inches about 1% lower after posting second-quarter earnings that missed analyst estimates as the bank pulled in less fees from Point Bonita, which bet on the embattled auto-parts supplier First Brands Group.
• Micron Technology (MU) jumps 18% after its quarterly sales forecast exceeded Wall Street estimates, signaling that an AI-fueled growth run remains strong.
• Trip.com ADRs (TCOM) fall 13% after the company reported adjusted earnings for the first quarter that missed analyst estimates. The online travel agency also expects slower 2Q revenue growth.
• Qualcomm (QCOM) gains 10% after the chipmaker forecast sales of more than $15 billion a year by fiscal 2029 in the market for AI components in data centers.
• Wendy’s (WEN) climbs 13%, on track to extend gains after rallying 26% on Wednesday, as the meme-stock crowd rallies behind the fast-food chain

In other corporate news, Lockheed Martin has been awarded a contract worth as much as $35 billion from the Defense Department to quadruple production of missile-defense interceptors as part of a broader effort by the Trump administration to bolster munitions output.
ARS Pharmaceuticals is down 23% premarket after the biotech provided updates on payer access for neffy, its FDA-approved epinephrine nasal spray, and an updated financial outlook for 2026 and 2027.

Nasdaq futs have erupted, following earnings by Micron and an update from Qualcomm. For Micron (+18.4% pre-market), its Q3 adj. EPS and revenue beat estimates while its Q4 guidance also beat consensus. In terms of commentary, they said that tight conditions are expected to persist beyond FY27, and it has no line of sight on when supply can catch up with demand. For Qualcomm (+12% pre-market), the Co. raised its FY29 non-handset revenue target to USD 40bln, while announcing a strategic relationship with Hugging Face to advance open, developer-driven AI from devices to cloud infrastructure.

The US optimism was palpable in other regions too. A benchmark for Asian stocks advanced 1.4%, with Micron peers SK Hynix Inc. and Samsung Electronics Co. rallying in South Korea. The technology sector far outperformed a 0.6% gain in Europe’s Stoxx 600.

The four most dangerous words in finance are now a daily occurrence, especially by people who should know better. Barclays’ global chair of research, recalling the 82% collapse in semiconductor stocks that burst the dotcom bubble, says this time is different. Addressing concerns about a cyclical bust in semis after their meteoric rise was followed by a pullback in early June, Barclays’ Ajay Rajadhyaksha says: “At the risk of using the four most dangerous words in finance, this time is different. Earnings have exploded, order books are full into 2027, and forward multiples are eminently reasonable.”

He says there may eventually come a boom-bust cycle, but not in 2026. “Despite recent equity wobbles, the semiconductor story is real, it is massive, and it is not going away anytime soon,” he adds.

“In a tech sector with strong growth and high expectations, we think investors will continue to look for signals that the AI adoption theme is playing out as expected,” said Richard Flax, chief investment officer at Moneyfarm. “Micron’s strong results are another data point that supports that positive thesis.”

The pre-market indication for Micron is set to comfortably exceed the roughly 10% absolute move implied by the options market. If these gains hold, it will be another example from the AI complex of seemingly expensive pre-earnings options ultimately proving justified by realized price action.

WTI crude is back below $70 a barrel as oil prices for easier global supply. At 8:30 a.m. ET, Bloomberg Economists expects a hot PCE reading will likely reinforce the hawkish tilt by the Fed at its meeting earlier this month. Meanwhile, the dollar is drifting lower ahead of the print.

Attention now turns Thursday to the release of May’s PCE index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge. Forecasters expect the data to show acceleration on both a monthly and year-over-year basis. Such a reading is unlikely to challenge a growing consensus at the Fed around the need for interest-rate hikes this year. While investors have dialed back bets on the scale of rate increases over the coming year as oil prices shed their war-driven premium, markets continue to see a hike as soon as September.

“If that comes in near expectations or higher, then we see the dollar drive further north,” said Nick Twidale, chief market analyst at AT Global Markets. “We could also see a dent in the positive risk sentiment.”

Markets will also follow remarks from New York Fed President John Williams, Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman and Austan Goolsbee of the Chicago Fed later today. Given Chair Kevin Warsh’s refusal last week to offer any clues about his own outlook for rates, traders will likely put a premium on commentary from colleagues. 

Meanwhile, China kicked off marketing up to €5 billion ($5.7 billion) of sovereign bonds in what could be its largest-ever such deal in euros. Separately, the nation’s central bank is introducing an overnight tenor into its open-market operations, a key step toward reshaping how it steers short-term borrowing costs.

In less notable news, on Wednesday, JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup and Morgan Stanley were among the big banks to boost their dividends after passing the latest Fed fluff stress tests. Separately, Jefferies second-quarter earnings came in light as it pulled in less fees from Point Bonita, which bet on the embattled auto-parts supplier First Brands Group.

Europe's tech-light Stoxx 600 has only engineered a 0.5% gain even as oil prices continue to tumble. Technology and utilities shares leading gains, while the biggest laggards are media and energy equities. Here are the biggest movers Thursday:

• 3i Group shares jump as much as 11% after the investment company revealed like-for-like growth at discount retailer Action, the single largest holding in its portfolio, accelerated over the last six weeks
• Barratt Redrow shares rise as much as 4.9%, outperforming UK homebuilder peers, after shareholder Phoenix Asset Management Partners said the company should be materially increasing its share buybacks
• EasyJet shares rise as much as 6.6% to the highest level in a year after the UK budget airline rejected a fourth takeover bid from US investment firm Castlelake
• NCAB shares rise as much as 7.5% after SEB Bank set a Street-high price target for the electronics retailer on “sustainably elevated” PCB prices
• Heidelberger Druckmaschinen gains as much as 8.2% following an acquisition by the printing company that spurred an upgrade at MP Capital Markets
• Halfords shares rise as much as 17% to their highest level in over two years after the UK vehicle parts and bicycle retailer’s earnings beat estimates and management flagged a strong start to FY27
• Moonpig shares rise as much as 12% after the giftcard retailer slightly beat consensus estimates for profit. Analysts at Panmure Liberum flag Moonpig’s “crazy cheap” valuation and strong cash returns
• H&M slips as much as 5.2% after reporting second-quarter earnings and saying sales in June are expected to be on par with the same month the previous year

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks rose, led by tech gains in South Korea and Japan after a bullish outlook from Micron Technology and Asian chipmakers’ US-listing plans revived confidence in the artificial intelligence trade. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 1.5%, with SK Hynix, Samsung Electronics and Advantest providing the biggest boost to the gauge. Korea’s benchmark rose 5.4%, while the tech-heavy Nikkei 225 Stock Average in Japan climbed 4.6%.  Renewed optimism followed US-based Micron’s better-than-expected sales forecast, reinforcing confidence that AI‑driven growth remains strong. The role of Asian chipmakers in the global AI supply chain was underscored as Korea’s SK Hynix and Japan’s Kioxia unveiled further details of plans to list in the US. Shares of SK Hynix surged after disclosing plans for a $29 billion US listing, a move that analysts viewed as boosting valuations through capacity expansion and greater foreign investor access. Kioxia climbed as its CFO said it intends to offer US depositary receipts in the spring of 2027. Here Are the Most Notable Movers

• Trip.com ADRs drop 14% in US premarket trading after the company reported adjusted earnings for the first quarter that missed analyst estimates. The online travel agency also expects slower 2Q revenue growth.
• Two founder group firms of Lodha Developers sold 19.88 million shares, or a 1.99% stake, in block deals to raise 18.65 billion rupees ($197.4 million), according to terms of the deal seen by Bloomberg News.
• Topix rose 1.3% to 4,016.47 with electric appliances and information technology sector higher. Nikkei 225 advanced 4.6% to 72,366.34.
• Chip stocks including Advantest and Tokyo Electron were some of the biggest gainers on the Nikkei 225 after Micron Technology forecast stronger-than-expected revenue.
• Evergrande Property Services shares tumble as much as 27% in HK, the most in nearly three years, after the firm said discussions between potential sellers and a purchaser ended.
• Chinese chip-related stocks climb after Micron Technology forecast stronger-than-expected revenue and reported third-quarter earnings that topped estimates. Shares of Alibaba drop in Hong Kong after Anthropic accused the company of waging a large-scale effort to “illicitly” access its Claude artificial intelligence model.
• Sunny Optical shares fall as much as 12%, the most in more than a year, after co. holds investor day. Citi’s note said co.’s optical interconnect commercialization remains at an early stage, with validation ongoing.
• Frasers Property shares rise as much as 4.7% after the Singapore real estate developer said its on-balance sheet hospitality assets are expected to decrease from about S$3.7b to S$2.5b, while keeping AUM at S$4.2b.
• Techtronic Industries’ shares surge as much as 8.1% to a four-year high after the company repurchased nearly 1% of its shares.

MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings shares fell as much as 5.1%, the most since Mar. 30, following a large discounted block trade.

In FX, the greenback has halted its recent ascent with the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index lower by 0.1% but still at levels not seen since November last year. USDJPY trades near a record high just shy of 162, with the BOJ on intervecntion watch. 

In rates, the recent rally in Treasuries is pausing for breath with the US 10-year yield up 2bps. Treasuries are slightly cheaper across the curve, unwinding a small portion of Wednesday’s aggressive rally as stock futures advance following Micron’s blowout forecast. Nasdaq 100 futures lead gains as bull case for the artificial-intelligence trade is reaffirmed. US long-end yields are nearly 2bp higher on the day with front-end tenors outperforming, steepening 2s10s curve by 1.5bp from near flattest level in more than a year; 10-year, higher by 1bp near 4.405%, trails bunds and gilts in the sector by 2bp and 1bp. Treasury auction cycle concludes with $44 billion 7-year notes sale at 1pm New York time, following uneventful 2- and 5-year notes over past two days. Focal points of US session include May personal income and spending data, which contain PCE price indexes, and a 7-year note auction. 

In commodities, Brent crude futures are down a further 1.4%, having erased their gains since the conflict in Iran began, while WTI crude oil futures are down more than 1% as Middle East exports via the Strait of Hormuz ramp up. The notable downside in energy markets also changes the context in which traders will receive today’s backward-looking US PCE data for May.  Spot gold has lost a further 0.2%, having slipped below the $4,000/oz threshold. Bitcoin is rising 1.3%. 

Looking at today's calendar, US economic data calendar includes May personal income/spending, 1Q GDP revision, May durable goods orders, weekly jobless claims and May Chicago Fed national activity index (8:30am) and June Kansas City Fed manufacturing activity (11am). Fed speaker slate includes Bowman (8:45am), Goolsbee (2pm, 6:30pm) and Williams (3:40pm)

Market Snapshot

Top Overnight News

• Brent erased its wartime gains as flows through the Strait of Hormuz accelerated. But tensions remained as Donald Trump warned that tolls in the waterway are a red line issue in negotiations with Iran. BBG
• Iraq will consider all available options if its OPEC quota is ‌not significantly increased and has weighed leaving the producer group, sources with knowledge of Iraqi oil policy told Reuters. The prospect of OPEC's second-largest producer considering an exit would be a further blow to the group after the departure this year of the United Arab Emirates. Iraq is one of the five founding members of OPEC, which was formed in the Iraqi capital. RTRS
• China started marketing up to €5 billion of sovereign bonds in what would become its largest-ever such deal in euros.
• The BOJ needs to raise interest rates every few months toward a neutral level of around 2%, board member Naoki Tamura said. BBG
• Japan’s 20-year bond auction drew the weakest demand since the market upheaval just over a year ago as worries about inflation and fiscal policy came back to the fore. BBG
• The EU’s trade deal with the US is set to go into effect after the bloc gave its final sign-off ahead of Trump’s deadline. BBG
• Colombian electoral authorities confirmed conservative Abelardo de la Espriella as the winner of the presidential election. He’ll take office on Aug. 7. BBG
• Meta is racing to replace human moderation with generative artificial intelligence, as it undergoes a broader cost-cutting drive to offset chief executive Mark Zuckerberg’s vast spending on AI. FT
• Qualcomm shares jumped premarket (QCOM +12% premkt) after forecasting more than $15 billion in annual AI chip sales by fiscal 2029. BBG
• Fed said 32 large banks are well positioned to weather a severe recession and continue lending under the latest stress test, while the banks tested absorbed more than $700bln in hypothetical losses and saw capital decline only 1.6%, to remain above minimum requirements. Furthermore, the Fed reaffirmed its plan to maintain capital levels steady as it adjusts the testing process and will set new stress capital buffers following the 2027 test. The banks promptly revealed plans to return hundreds of billions in capital to investors through dividends and buybacks. 

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks traded mixed, albeit with a mostly positive bias and with the KOSPI leading the gains as tech and Nasdaq futures rebounded from the prior day's lows following strong earnings from Micron. ASX 200 was dragged lower by weakness in mining, materials, resources and energy stocks, while better-than-expected headline Australian jobs data failed to inspire and was mostly driven by part-time jobs. Nikkei 225 rallied back above the 72,000 level amid a resurgence in tech and lower oil prices, while markets were unfazed by comments from BoJ hawk Tamura, who called for hiking rates every few months. KOSPI outperformed amid a rally in Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, with the latter sitting on double-digit percentage gains amid its US IPO plans. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were mixed in the absence of any major fresh drivers and with the Hong Kong benchmark dragged lower by losses in miners and further weakness in hyperscalers, including Alibaba, after Anthropic accused the Co. of illicitly accessing AI models in a letter to US officials.

Top Asian News

• USGS reported a magnitude 7.1 earthquake struck off the coast of Venezuela and that a second 7.5 magnitude earthquake hit the same area, while it warned of a potential massive catastrophe from the Venezuela quake, and estimated the quake death toll could exceed 1000, according to NYT.
• Earthquake reportedly hit Japan off the Iwate prefecture with a preliminary magnitude of 6.9, while NHK said Japan quake shaking intensity was 6+ on a scale of 7, while no tsunami warning was issued.- Japan's LDP is facing internal friction, with lawmaker Obuchi reportedly offering to resign if consumption tax is cut to 0%, NTV reported.

European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.6%) begin Thursday's trade with broad gains, with tech-heavy indices leading following positive Micron earnings (AEX +0.8%, DAX 40 +0.6%). As the Iran conflict fades, with energy prices now reversing the wartime gains, equities in Europe can begin to catch up to their peers in the US and Asia. Investors are also seeing Europe as a safer place to place money due to its lack of tech giants, protecting themselves from any AI-related selloff. European sectors highlight the positive bias. Technology (+2.6%), unsurprisingly, is the clear outperformer. Utilities (+1.5%) and Financial Services (+0.8%) complete the top 3 sectors. To the downside is Media (-0.9%), Food, Beverages & Tobacco (-0.4%) and Chemicals (-0.3%).

Top European News

• UK Chancellor Reeves reiterated her backing for MP Andy Burnham, and stated that it is clear he is committed to the fiscal rules. On borrowing more for defence spending, she said the DIP will involve more money. Will not maintain current level of economic growth due to Middle-East conflict and decisions to be make on Jackdaw and Rosebank soon.
• Two of the UK's largest trade unions are increasing pressure on Andy Burnham not to pick Ed Miliband as the Chancellor, arguing that his North Sea oil policy has damaged jobs in the sector, according to FT.
• German Deputy Defence Minister Schmid said they are well underway on reaching the 3.5% defence spend target and that different options to be discussed on the subject of the Eurofighter.

FX

• G10s are mixed but mostly stronger against the Buck with breadth narrow as the Buck rally loses steam and fails to provide a bias to peers.
• USD benefitted this week from the risk-on mood into Micron earnings, which were released after US markets closed on Wednesday. Given the stellar report from the memory maker, risk-on trade has resumed, with equities (specifically tech–heavy indices) bid. DXY a touch lower on the day given the risk tone, trades at the lower end of its 101.44-101.66 range; now looking to PCE.
• Antipodeans lacklustre against the Buck despite the heightened sentiment. Aussie digested better-than-expected headline employment change, which failed to spark a meaningful reaction following on from the mixed inflation report in the prior session, with much of the change driven by temporary activity. AUD/USD +0.1% found buyers below 0.69, AUD/NZD +0.1% lifted from just below the 1.22 mark.
• USD/JPY continues to lack a bias as it hovers around levels not seen since July 2024. BoJ’s Tamura spoke overnight, sticking to the hawkish bias, advocating for tightening “once every few months” to a terminal of 2%. Despite the remarks initially helping the Yen, the move failed to stick, with the pair flat and approaching 162 to the upside.
• GBP remains focused on the Fiscal/Chancellor situation. Current Chancellor Reeves on the wires this morning, not providing too much new but seemingly teeing herself up to keep the role at no. 11. Prior to this, The Times reported that Miliband has been developing key economic policies for the new government, with particular reference to fiscal implications, a point potentially unwelcome by UK investors given his track record as Energy Secretary. GBP has not taken the skew from Gilts which underperform peers today amid the continued Miliband reporting, GBP/USD +0.1% after bouncing off 1.3150.

Fixed income

• Global fixed benchmarks are softer across the board, albeit only modestly. This does come after the benchmarks surged in Wednesday's session, causing yields to break key markers, as energy prices continued to fall.
• USTs (-3 ticks) have pulled back from Wednesday's and Today's peak of 110-01, with 10yr yields slipping below the support level of 4.422%. Despite the positive 2-year auction on Tuesday, it failed to feed through to the 5-year tap. A busy data docket is ahead, with Core PCE Price Index (the Fed's preferred inflation gauge) expected to hold steady at 3.3% Y/Y. Final Q1 GDP is also expected to remain unchanged at 1.6%. Initial jobless claims, durable goods orders, Atlanta Fed GDP and a 7-year auction are also on the docket.
• Bunds (+3 ticks) and Gilts (-9 ticks) are also softer, but off worst levels. For German debt, its Q3 issuance plan was left unchanged, looking to raise EUR 138bln in the quarter. Bunds were unreactive following the announcement. ECB's Schnabel was on the wires this morning, reiterating her stance that the ECB will need to raise rates further to bring back inflation to 2%, while stating that although the short-term situation looks better than expected, the ceasefire is no reason for policymakers to let their guard down. For Gilts, although they were unreactive, the Guardian reported that some senior officials are pushing incoming-PM Burnham to issue GBP 20bln of "war bonds" to pay for higher defence spending. We are now attentive to specifics around the duration and magnitude of any theoretical issuance.
• JGBs (+5 ticks) consolidated, with a poor 20-year auction capping the upside. The b/c ratio dropped to 2.97, below the prior 4.01x and 12-month average. No significant move seen to hawkish BoJ speak overnight.
• German Q3 debt issuance plan unchanged, as expected: to raise EUR 138bln in Q3, set to issue EUR 512bln in 2026.
• UK sells GBP 1.5bln 0.50% 2029 Gilt via tender: b/c 3.61x (prev. 3.86x), average yield 4.062% (prev. 3.841%).
• Japan sells JPY 530.4bln 20-year JGBs; b/c 2.97x (prev. 4.01), average yield 3.542% (prev. 3.711%)

Commodities

• Attention today has been on a recent route dispute on the Strait of Hormuz. The IRGC rejected a newly formed shipping lane, which traverses towards Omani waters, with the Group stating that it only accepts passage through it own routes. The IRGC warned that any attempts to pass through the Strait, outside of their own route, will be dealt with accordingly.
• Focus also on the Lebanon situation. Initially a US official stated that Israel had pulled back from parts of its buffer zone in Lebanon, which was then pushed back by Lebanese sources; it was then later confirmed by the Israelis that it had not received any instructions to pull back. This spurred some mild strength in the crude complex at the time.
• WTI and Brent are once again on a weak footing this morning, trading lower by c. 1.2% and 1.3% respectively. Markets continue to cheer the reopening of the Strait, with dozens of ships continuing to pass through daily. It is unclear how long this exuberance will last, given the risks surrounding the new Strait route and conflicting remarks and the volatile Lebanon-Israel situation.
• Also interesting was comments made by a senior Iraqi Oil Ministry official, who said the nation will consider all available options if its OPEC quota is not significantly increased and have considered the idea of leaving OPEC
• Spot gold trades shy of the USD 4k/oz mark, and holds within a USD 3,962-4,018/oz range, which is towards the bottom end of Wednesday’s trading bands. Analysts highlight several factors for the recent move lower in gold, which includes: 1) loss of safe-haven appeal, 2) stronger USD, 3) hawkish shift at the Fed, spurred following Warsh’s debut. On the latter point, Warsh ultimately highlighted the importance of price stability, which helped to push back on traders eyeing a debasement trade.
• Elsewhere, for the yellow metal, Bloomberg reported that major Chinese banks are reportedly shutting services supporting retail precious metals trading after gold and silver volatility. Elsewhere, 3M LME copper is firmer this morning, and trades within a USD 13,056.5-13,242.13/t range.
• US President Trump said he spoke with oil companies and that oil companies are not reducing gas prices enough, adding they will be in trouble if they are gouging.
• Saudi Arabia is reportedly set to restart Ras Tanura (550k BPD) oil exports as Gulf flows rise.
• Senior Iraqi Oil Ministry official said the nation will consider all available options if its OPEC quota is not significantly increased and have considered the idea of leaving OPEC. The current plan is to remain and gain higher quota.
• Iraqi Government spokesperson said the nation is working to restore full oil export capacity and aims to raise production to 7mln BPD over the coming years.
• China is reportedly raising its refined fuel export allowance for July, according to reports.
• Early reports suggest oil export and production were unaffected by the Venezuela earthquakes, according to Bloomberg's Blas.
• Chevron (CVX) CFO said gas prices will normalise, following pressure from President Trump on big oil companies, CNBC reported.
• Major Chinese banks are reportedly shutting services supporting retail precious-metals trading after gold and silver volatility, Bloomberg reported.

Trade/Tariffs

• The EU has given the US trade deal final approval, according to Bloomberg.
• UK Government announced new steel trade measures, effective July 1st. It will reduce the overall quota volumes by 51% and that any imports above would have a 50% tariff.

Central Banks

• ECB's Schnabel said the short term situation now looks better than had been expected but the ceasefire is no reason for policymakers to let their guard down. We will need to raise interest rates further in order to bring inflation back to the two percent target over the medium term.
• BoJ Board Member Tamura said it is important to push the BoJ’s policy rate closer to neutral to avoid being forced to hike rates sharply later, and his view is for the BoJ to raise its policy rate once every few months towards a neutral level of around 2%. Tamura also stated that if upside price risks become more likely to materialise, the BoJ should not hesitate to speed up rate hikes or raise rates by a larger amount, while he voted against the decision to pause tapering from next fiscal year, as the BoJ should normalise the balance of its bond holdings as soon as possible.

Geopolitics

• US President Trump reiterated that Iran will never have a nuclear weapon, while he adds that we will have peace in the Middle East. Trump separately commented that it is unacceptable to have fees on the Strait of Hormuz and they are doing great in negotiations with Iran, while he added that the Iran war powers vote is meaningless.
• US Secretary of State Rubio said we hope to reach a final agreement with Iran, but not at any price, and are now entering a new phase that hopefully leads to peace. Will not accept that Hormuz belongs to any nation-state. US President Trump has been fundamentally clear about the tolling issue. It can be a toll or a fee, but it is all semantics.
• US Senate Republicans defeated a war powers resolution regarding Iran in a 50-47 vote, to appease President Trump following a heated lunch meeting, according to NYT
• A US State Department official said Israel has pulled back from part of its buffer zone in southern Lebanon as an act of good faith. However, this was later refuted, with a Lebanese military source telling Al-Araby that the Israeli army has not withdrawn from any point in the areas it occupies in southern Lebanon. This was also denied by a senior Israel official.
• "Lebanese media outlets are reporting that an Israeli drone attacked the village of Tabit, in the Nabatia region in southern Lebanon", via Kan's Kais.
• Five South Korean ships were said to have exited the Strait of Hormuz, although the time frame is uncertain.
• Ukraine President Zelensky confirmed its military hit an oil depot in Russia’s Krasnodar region and two oil refineries in the Ufa region.

US Event Calendar

• 8:30 am: May Personal Income, est. 0.4%, prior 0%
• 8:30 am: May Personal Spending, est. 0.6%, prior 0.5%
• 8:30 am: May PCE Price Index YoY, est. 4.1%, prior 3.77%
• 8:30 am: May Core PCE Price Index MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.2%
• 8:30 am: May Core PCE Price Index YoY, est. 3.4%, prior 3.29%
• 8:30 am: 1Q T GDP Annualized QoQ, est. 1.6%, prior 1.6%
• 8:30 am: 1Q T Personal Consumption, est. 1.4%, prior 1.4%
• 8:30 am: 1Q T GDP Price Index, est. 3.5%, prior 3.5%
• 8:30 am: 1Q T Core PCE Price Index QoQ, est. 4.4%, prior 4.4%
• 8:30 am: Jun 20 Initial Jobless Claims, est. 225k, prior 226k
• 8:30 am: Jun 13 Continuing Claims, est. 1801.5k, prior 1810k
• 8:30 am: May P Durable Goods Orders, est. -5%, prior 8%
• 8:30 am: May P Durables Ex Transportation, est. 0.6%, prior 1.1%
• 8:30 am: May Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index, est. 0.15, prior 0.14

Central Bank Speakers

• 8:45 am: Fed’s Bowman Speaks on Small Bank Supervision
• 2:00 pm: Fed’s Goolsbee on CNBC
• 3:40 pm: Fed’s Williams Gives Keynote Remarks
• 6:30 pm: Fed’s Goolsbee in Moderated Discussion

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Markets are in a buoyant mood this morning, with Brent crude oil prices finally back at their pre-conflict levels. They’ve fallen another -1.70% overnight to $72.49/bbl, which is almost exactly in line with their $72.48/bbl level immediately before the US and Israel began their strikes on Iran on February 28. It comes as flows through the Strait of Hormuz have continued to ramp up, with the number of vessels getting through at its highest since the conflict started. And more broadly, the oil price decline has eased fears about a stagflationary shock and aggressive rate hikes to deal with any inflation.

Alongside the oil price declines, the other positive story overnight came from Micron’s earnings after the US close. Their revenue outlook was at $50bn for the fiscal fourth quarter running through August, well above the $43.2bn analyst consensus. So that reignited hopes about AI-fuelled growth and helped to push back against fears we were in some kind of bubble. And in turn, Micron’s shares surged nearly 16% in after-hours trading, and futures on the NASDAQ 100 have also surged +1.77% overnight. So that tech strength has helped to lift US equities more broadly, with S&P 500 futures up +0.53%, finally pointing to a recovery after 3 consecutive losses for the index.
This positivity has been clear in Asian markets overnight, with the Nikkei (+4.10%) and the KOSPI (+5.73%) both surging, alongside a strong gain for the CSI 300 (+1.61%). The main exception to that pattern has been the Hang Seng (-1.38%), which is currently on course for a one-year low. But otherwise, sentiment has been very positive, and the Japanese Yen has also stabilised overnight, up +0.03% to 161.73 per US Dollar. For reference, it closed at its weakest since 1986 yesterday, at 161.78 per US Dollar, although it hasn’t quite got to the intraday low in that time, as it briefly traded at 161.95 back in July 2024.

Ahead of that overnight positivity, oil prices had already seen a decent decline, with Brent crude falling -4.33% to $73.74/bbl. In part, that was thanks to growing signs of more traffic flowing through the Strait of Hormuz. Moreover, multiple US officials were sounding negative over the prospect of tolls in the Strait of Hormuz. For instance, Trump posted that Iran had informed the US there would be no tolls or charges in the Strait of Hormuz, and that “If this is false information, negotiations would end, immediately!” Meanwhile, Secretary of State Rubio said that “No country is allowed to charge tolls or fees on an international waterway”. So the newsflow led to growing optimism about a normalisation in the energy market, which would help to avoid any lasting inflationary consequences.

This backdrop helped equities to stabilise after their losses on Monday and Tuesday, with the S&P 500 (-0.10%) only posting a modest decline. That came as the Mag 7 (-0.82%) fell further into correction territory, having now fallen -11.6% since its May 28 peak, whilst the S&P 500’s energy sector (-1.73%) also struggled amid the decline in oil prices. But there was some positivity more broadly, with almost two-thirds of the S&P constituents higher on the day, leaving the equal-weighted S&P 500 up +0.71%. And over in Europe, the STOXX 600 (+0.08%) posted a marginal gain as well.

Whilst equities were stabilising, there were much bigger milestones for sovereign bonds, as lower oil prices helped to ease concerns about inflation. In fact, the 1yr US inflation swap (-12.3bps) fell to just 2.16%, marking its lowest level since October 2024. And over in the Euro Area, the 1yr inflation swap (-14.0bps) fell to a 3-month low of 2.31%. So in turn, that meant investors priced out the chance of rate hikes for the months ahead. For instance, just 35bps of Fed hikes are now priced in by December, down -2.9bps on the day. And similarly for the ECB, just 29bps more hikes are priced in by December, down -2.5bps on the day.

For sovereign bonds, that combination of easing inflation fears and more dovish central bank pricing was a strong one. So yields saw very large falls on both sides of the Atlantic, and the 10yr Treasury yield (-10.5bps) fell back to 4.39%. That was echoed in Europe too, where yields on 10yr bunds (-5.5bps) reached a 3-month low of 2.86%, whilst yields on 10yr OATs (-5.2bps) and BTPs (-5.5bps) also moved lower. There was also a decent round of yield curve flattening, as longer-dated yields posted bigger falls than the front-end. So the 2s10s Treasury curve (-5.4bps) fell to just 24bps by the close, its flattest since March 2025. And over in Germany, the 2s10s curve (-2.1bps) fell to 32bps, its flattest since February 2025.

Otherwise in Europe, those yield declines saw a modest pullback after hawkish comments from the ECB’s Schnabel. It wasn’t enough to outweigh the effect of lower oil prices, but she pointed to more hikes ahead, saying the ECB “will need to continue raising interest rates in order to bring inflation back to our target of 2% in the medium term”. Moreover, she also said that “the ceasefire is no reason for monetary policy to let its guard down”. So those comments re-affirmed Schnabel’s position at the hawkish end of the ECB Governing Council.

Here in the UK, gilts continued to outperform their European counterparts, reflecting how they’ve seen some of the biggest moves in either direction since the Iran conflict began. So the 10yr gilt yield fell -7.2bps yesterday to 4.68%, its lowest level in 3 months.

Meanwhile on the political side, Chief Secretary to the PM Darren Jones ruled himself out of succeeding Keir Starmer as Labour leader. So that meant expectations continued to rise that Andy Burnham could win without a contest, and the Polymarket probability of him becoming PM in 2026 is now at 98%. Speaking of the UK, the Deutsche Bank Research Institute piece on the 10th anniversary of the Brexit referendum can be found here, and to those who’ve signed up to the event today, it’s still going ahead.

Elsewhere, there were a few other notable market moves yesterday. The dollar index (+0.20%) continued its recent rise, reaching its highest level since May last year. Then on the opposite end, gold fell below the $4,000 level for the first time since November (-2.86% to $3,999/oz) and is now more than -25% below its January peak. Meanwhile, yesterday saw Bitcoin reach its lowest intraday level since October 2024, at $59,023, although it’s since recovered this morning to $60,956.

Finally, there were a couple of other data releases yesterday, including the Ifo Institute’s business climate indicator from Germany. That rose to 85.6 in June (vs. 85.5 expected), marking a second monthly gain after falling back in March and April. Interestingly, the current assessment indicator was up to 87.0, its highest since July 2024, but the expectations indicator only rose to 84.1, still clearly beneath its levels before the Iran conflict. Over in the US, we also got new home sales for May, which unexpectedly fell to an annualised rate of 580k in May (vs. 640k expected).

Looking at the day ahead now, US data releases include the PCE inflation reading for May, the third estimate of Q1 GDP, the weekly initial jobless claims, and preliminary durable goods orders for May. Otherwise from central banks, we’ll hear from the ECB’s Moulin, Lane, Cipollone, and the Fed’s Bowman, Williams and Goolsbee. Meanwhile, the ECB will also publish their Economic Bulletin.

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/25/2026 - 08:22

Another OPEC Exit? Iraq Warns It Could Abandon Oil Cartel If Quota Hike Rejected

Iraq is sending a warning shot to OPEC: raise Baghdad's oil production quota to better reflect its capacity and fiscal needs, or risk yet another defection from the oil-producing cartel.

"The ministry currently has no intention of withdrawing from OPEC, and we remain committed to operating within the organization's framework and mechanisms," Oil Ministry spokesman Salim Al-Rikabi told Bloomberg via a text message.

Al-Rikabi warned, "Of course, taking into consideration that the Ministry is moving forward with increasing its production to align with its capabilities and needs, the organization should raise Iraq's production level. Otherwise, a decision will have to be made regarding whether to remain in or withdraw from OPEC."

Iraq's threat to leave OPEC comes two months after the UAE formally left the oil cartel, which now comprises 11 members, including Algeria, Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, and Venezuela.

The UAE ranks among the top producers in OPEC (4.05 million bpd) and left the group due to its growing capacity ambitions (targeting 5 million bpd by 2027).

We noted at the time...

OPEC finished https://t.co/RtxJdZQeQh

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) April 28, 2026

On a normal, pre-disruption OPEC basis, Iraq and the UAE were huge:

A possible exodus of Iraq, on top of the UAE's recent exit, would only further weaken OPEC's ability to defend price floors, especially during periods of glut.

However, a separate Bloombreg report said Iraq walked back its threat to leave... 

"The reports suggesting that Iraq is considering ending its membership in OPEC do not reflect the official position of the Iraqi Government. Neither the Prime Minister nor the Government of Iraq has proposed withdrawing from the Organization," the Oil Ministry said in a statement.

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/25/2026 - 07:45

The AI Race Will Be Won Or Lost On Power Infrastructure

By Amanda Simonian, chief marketing officer at TerraFlow Energy, first published in UtilityDive

Over the past several months, moving between conversations on Capitol Hill, industry conferences, and meetings with operators, developers and policymakers, I have been struck by how often very different discussions keep circling back to the same underlying concern: power. In congressional offices, it comes up through the language of energy security, industrial policy and what it will take to keep infrastructure ahead of rising electricity demand. Across the industry, it surfaces through a more operational vocabulary: interconnection bottlenecks, volatile load growth, transmission constraints and the practical question of where the next gigawatt comes from.

Data centers in Stutsman County, N.D. 

What made those conversations interesting wasn’t simply that policymakers and operators were focused on the same issue. It was that many of the proposed answers still seemed rooted in an assumption that deserves more scrutiny. Much of today’s discussion treats AI-driven load growth primarily as a supply challenge. Demand is rising sharply, so the answer must be to build more generation.

That’s true, but only partially.

I’ve come away increasingly convinced the sector may be treating what is fundamentally an infrastructure performance challenge as though it were only a generation problem. Those aren’t the same thing, and the distinction matters. In many places, the strain emerging around rapid load growth isn’t just about whether enough electrons can be produced. It’s about whether the systems carrying, balancing and responding to that power can perform reliably as loads become denser, more dynamic and far less predictable than the grid was originally designed to support.

There are signs of that pressure showing up across the country already. Recent warnings from the PJM Interconnection around reserve margins, rising demand scenarios in the Electric Reliability Council of Texas and analysis from the Electric Power Research Institute projecting major increases in data center electricity consumption all point toward a common reality: this isn’t a regional anomaly, and it isn’t a problem sitting comfortably on the horizon. It is beginning to surface now in ways that challenge longstanding planning assumptions.

That is part of why the “just build more generation” framing feels incomplete. More supply matters, but supply alone doesn’t resolve congestion at constrained nodes, instability caused by volatile load behavior, or the local system stress created when large loads concentrate faster than infrastructure can adapt. In some cases, responding to those pressures primarily through generation additions risks solving for scarcity while leaving unresolved, or even exacerbating, the performance challenges underneath.

That isn’t simply a fuel problem, but a systems problem, and systems problems tend to get harder when they’re diagnosed too narrowly.

Even actions like Executive Order 14156 and subsequent federal actions on grid infrastructure suggest growing recognition that energy systems are becoming a strategic competitiveness issue. But the more important question may not be how quickly infrastructure can be deployed, but whether the infrastructure being prioritized is designed for the character of demand now emerging. Speed matters, but architecture matters too.

If infrastructure performance is becoming a limiting factor, then planning, procurement and policy frameworks need to start valuing flexibility and operational capability alongside megawatts. Resource adequacy models should account not only for how much capacity a resource provides, but also for how effectively it responds to rapid load variability. Interconnection and permitting processes should encourage architectures that reduce stress on local infrastructure rather than simply adding demand. Utilities, regulators and large-load customers should be evaluating infrastructure based on its ability to improve system resilience, absorb volatility and support grid performance under real operating conditions.

As the character of demand changes, the metrics used to evaluate infrastructure likely need to change with it. The question is no longer only whether new resources can produce electricity. It’s whether they help the system operate more reliably as load growth accelerates. That matters because the public debate is still asking a narrower question than the moment demands. We often ask whether the U.S. can build enough electricity to support AI growth. A harder and more consequential question is whether we can build power systems capable of supporting that growth reliably. One is fundamentally about supply. The other is about whether the system itself can hold under stress.

Those are not the same challenge.

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/25/2026 - 07:20

Heat Dome Sends European Power Prices Soaring

An intense heat wave continues to bake France and parts of Europe, with temperatures surging well above the 30-year average for this time of year.

Welcome to summer. 

They think we are stupid, that our memories cannot stretch back to when life was normal, and when our lives were not based on fear...

Summer, it gets hot, Winter it gets cold...

It's NORMAL. https://t.co/hYHvZ3dI2w

— 🇨🇭🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿InLucysHead🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿🇨🇭© (@InsideLucysHead) June 24, 2026

In France, the average daily temperature reached 85.6F on Tuesday, according to Météo-France, while Pissos in southwest France hit 111.7F.

The heat dome parked over Western Europe is set to fade by the end of the week, but temperatures will remain well above the 30-year seasonal average.

French evening power prices on Tuesday soared to their highest level since the 2022 energy crisis, while German power prices hit two-year highs. In Belgium, peak-hour power prices for Wednesday evening jumped to 933.28 euros per megawatt-hour on EPEX Spot.

French grid operator RTE is preparing for possible heat-related disruptions, including de-energizing power lines.

The heat is also straining climate-friendly power grids because of low wind generation, while heat-related restrictions at French nuclear plants have created a perfect storm of tight power supply just as millions of residential and commercial buildings crank up their air conditioning.

Red heat warnings have also been issued across Germany, Luxembourg, Switzerland, and the UK through Thursday.

Bloomberg noted, "France is at the epicenter of this month’s heat wave, as a high-pressure heat dome is reinforced by atmospheric shifts linked to a developing El Niño." 

Latest El Niño coverage:

• Super El Nino: Famine Follows War?
• Trader's Guide To Navigating The "Super El Niño"
• First Major Weather Organization Declares El Nino Onset As Food Inflation Risks Intensify

Meanwhile, it's quite nice in Washington, DC, right now, with average temperatures holding below 30-year averages. 

When Democrats are not ramming through radical de-growth climate bills, their climate propaganda machine goes quiet. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/25/2026 - 06:55

Chinese Humanoids Take On Penalty Challenge As Messi, Ronaldo Light Up FIFA World Cup

Authored by Jijo Malayil via Interesting Engineering,

As the World Cup fever grows around stars like Messi and Ronaldo, Shanghai hosts a unique penalty shootout featuring humanoid robots.

Humanoid robots are stepping up for a penalty shootout.Boston Dynamics/YouTube

At MWC Shanghai 2026, humanoid robots are stepping up to the spot in the Humanoid Robot Football Penalties Challenge, testing the limits of robotics, AI, machine vision, and real-time motion control.

According to Chinese media outlets, the event showcases how embodied AI performs under pressure, highlighting next-generation autonomous technology through football-inspired challenges.

Ahead of the 2026 FIFA World Cup, Hyundai Motor recently launched a football-themed campaign featuring Boston Dynamics' Atlas humanoid robot.

Humanoid football test

On its opening day at MWC Shanghai 2026 on June 24, the spotlight quickly shifted from keynote speeches to a live demonstration of embodied AI in action: the Humanoid Robot Football Penalties Challenge.

Held within the Mobile AI Innovation Frontiers Zone at the Shanghai New International Expo Centre, the event is designed as a controlled stress test for real-time autonomous decision-making, where humanoid robots must read the goal, judge angles, and execute penalty kicks without pre-programmed sequences, external control, or resets, reported CGTN.

While official details of the participating humanoid robots remain limited, videos circulating online suggest models from Booster Robotics and Unitree Robotics taking part in the challenge.

In the penalties challenge itself, participating humanoids are evaluated on perception accuracy, balance control, motion planning, and adaptive response under game-like pressure. Each robot must independently interpret ball position and goalkeeper movement before committing to a strike, making split-second corrections based on sensor feedback.

The format escalates through semi-finals and a final scheduled for June 25, intensifying constraints to simulate high-pressure competitive conditions. By turning a universally understood sports moment - the penalty kick - into a robotics benchmark, the showcase highlights how far embodied AI has progressed toward coordinated, human-like physical intelligence in unpredictable environments.

Atlas soccer showcase

In a recent football demonstration by Boston Dynamics, an Atlas robot is shown standing before a large display screen, closely tracking player movements, body positioning, and in-game reactions across football footage. After each clip ends, Atlas moves into a practice zone where it immediately attempts to reproduce the actions it has just observed, effectively linking visual perception with physical execution in real time.

The footage highlights a series of football-inspired motions. In one sequence, the robot shifts its weight, swings a leg forward, and smoothly guides a ball across the floor with controlled contact. It then progresses through rapid training drills focused on balance, coordination, and timing. As the session continues, Atlas's movements appear increasingly fluid, suggesting the system is being evaluated not only for strength but also for agility, reflex response, and adaptive motor control.

Some of the most notable moments show Atlas imitating human emotional reactions. After completing a drill, it raises its arms in celebration, mirroring a footballer's goal celebration. In another instance, it drops to one knee and pauses, recreating an injury response seen in match footage it had just observed.

Hyundai Motor Company, parent of Boston Dynamics, described the demonstration as Atlas's first exposure to football under its "School of Football" initiative. The company has also indicated potential plans to showcase Atlas and the quadruped robot Spot at the FIFA World Cup, though their exact roles remain undisclosed.

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/25/2026 - 06:30

European Rearmament Efforts Snuffed By Chinese Control Of Critical Materials

Yesterday we reported that, in a tit-for-tat move, China announced it is targeting US rare earths firms in response to a Pentagon list of Chinese firms: this, as Rabobank noted, is largely a symbolic move, but it still underlines the tensions in this area. So does the Nikkei reporting that ‘China minerals control threatens EU rearmament, as bloc seeks new sources’: because, as Rabo's Michael Every notes, even if you can afford a dagger, you can’t make it without rare earths, and Europe still hasn’t secured enough supply. 

Taking a closer look at the report, Nikkei writes that the European Union's aggressive plans to boost defense capabilities are hampered by China's export controls and sales restrictions on critical raw materials, with the bloc's leaders now calling on countries to accelerate the diversification of their supply chains.

The European Commission last week said that it will propose a new law that will require companies in the bloc to expand their suppliers to address economic imbalances, although it did not name China.

Russia's war in Ukraine and growing uncertainty over Washington's security guarantees have pushed governments in Europe to increase military spending and production. But for 17 of the 34 materials classified as critical by the EU, China accounts for at least 70% of global mining or refining, a report published by Teer in May shows. Eight of those 34 materials are subject to Chinese export controls.

"China is in the process of pulling the rug out from under Europe's rearmament efforts," said Joris Teer, a policy analyst at the EU Institute for Security Studies (EUISS), the bloc's agency for foreign, security and defense policy analysis.

"By just deploying this weapon, China has already increased its leverage, signaling both its capacity and willingness to squeeze supply at any moment of its choosing," Teer wrote.

Escalating geopolitical developments and intensifying global competition for critical raw materials underline the growing need to strengthen Europe's supply chains, said the Aerospace, Security and Defence Industries Association of Europe. The organization represents over 4,000 companies including the U.K.'s BAE Systems, France's Thales and Germany's Rheinmetall.

European defense manufacturers are pursuing several strategies including vertical integration, recycling, diversification and stockpiling. Rheinmetall told Nikkei Asia it had "no dependencies" and was "well prepared with regard to critical minerals."

"Rheinmetall has stored key raw materials, enough to last for several years," a spokesperson said. "We have implemented IT systems that enable us to centrally monitor and control raw material consumption across the group with precision."

Rheinmetall's FV-014 loitering munition drone on exhibition at a recent aerospace trade show in Berlin. The German multinational company is repurposing two plants that make automotive parts into weapons manufacturers

But analysts warn that stockpiling alone will not be enough.

"Stockpiling is an important buffer against immediate disruptions, but on its own it is unlikely to reduce structural damage over the long term," said Maria Shagina, senior fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies. She said it would take years for alternative sources to replace either the volumes or the range of critical minerals that Beijing controls.

In 2024, the EU introduced the European Critical Raw Materials Act, aimed at rebuilding domestic supply chains for such minerals. It sets 2030 targets for domestic extraction, processing and recycling, while capping reliance on any single third-country supplier at 65%. A 3 billion-euro ($3.5 billion) fund was launched last year to accelerate strategic projects.

But the European Court of Auditors notes that the 2030 targets are nonbinding and that the bloc remains far from achieving them. Industry groups say policy inconsistencies could slow progress further.

The Cobalt Institute, representing an industry vital to jet engines, advanced batteries and defense alloys, said proposed EU rules involving chemicals risk hollowing out the sector.

"Europe is one foot in, one foot out," said Michael Blakeney, head of government and public affairs at the London-based institute. "It is saying all the right things, but what it is doing is incoherent."

Europe's efforts coincide with an aggressive approach by the U.S. to secure critical mineral supply chains.

"The U.S. is deploying more capital, taking larger financial risks and in some cases acquiring equity stakes to secure and build capacity," Shagina said. "By contrast, Europe has generally been more cautious ... leaving [it] at a relative disadvantage in competing for critical minerals."

In April, the EU signed an agreement with the U.S. to coordinate critical mineral supplies. Following initial resistance over fears it could dilute the bloc's strategic autonomy, member states authorized the commission earlier in June to sign up to the U.S.-led Pax Silica initiative, which coordinates investment and export-control policies.

Teer urged the European bloc to use ongoing U.S.-EU-Japan negotiations as the "nucleus" of a wider coalition to make non-Chinese critical mineral production financially viable, backed by state support, price floors and procurement rules.

"Particularly important are raw material producers, or deposit holders, like Malaysia, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Brazil and Indonesia, as well as countries with vast skilled-workforce potential like India," he wrote in the paper.

To deter further Chinese restrictions, he said the EU also should activate its anti-coercion instrument, which allows it to impose tariffs and restrictions as a response to economic coercion by countries outside of the bloc.

A European Commission spokesperson said the bloc had "long recognized the risks linked to the EU's dependencies on critical raw materials."

"The objective is clear: Anticipate disruptions early and reduce the EU's vulnerabilities as we scale up our industrial and defense capacities," the spokesperson said.

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/25/2026 - 05:45

EU Commissioner Claims That Ukraine Is Gaining The Upper Hand On The Battlefield, In the Air, And At Sea

Via Remix News,

Ukraine is gaining the upper hand on the battlefield, in the air and at sea, while Ukrainian drones have stopped Russia’s ground advance and are causing serious disruptions to Russian logistics, EU Commissioner for Defense and Space Policy Andrius Kubilius said on Tuesday in Brussels.

In his speech launching the European defense and security summit, the commissioner pointed out that Ukrainian drones can paralyze the supply of the Russian army up to 300 kilometers from the front lines.

According to the EU commissioner, Ukraine is no longer just a beneficiary of international subsidies, but also contributes to the protection of other countries.

Kubilius said that Russian President Vladimir Putin is reacting to Ukrainian successes with increasingly desperate attacks. He cited last week’s attack on the Kyiv monastery as an example, which he called an attack on culture, religion and civilization.

According to the commissioner, Russia continues to pose a threat to Europe’s security, and Moscow may be able to test NATO’s Article 5, which establishes collective defense. At the same time, he emphasized that Ukraine’s successes do not mean the end of the war, nor do they mean that Russia is weak.

As he said, Russia is still able to produce weapons and drones in large quantities, so Europe must prepare to strengthen its own defense capabilities.

According to Kubilius, the United States is increasingly encouraging Europe to take greater responsibility for its own security. He emphasized: “Europe must be prepared for the fact that some capabilities of the American forces may be regrouped in other regions, so European defense capacities must be urgently strengthened.”

Kubilius warned that without replenishing American strategic capabilities, Europe’s defenses and deterrent power could be weakened.

“If European countries do not fill these gaps in ability, it could be an open invitation for Russia to test the West’s resolve,” he said.

He added that the necessary resources for this can be available primarily at the national level. He reminded that based on their commitments to NATO, the member states can spend a total of around €7 trillion for defense purposes over the next ten years.

At the same time, the Commissioner stressed the need for these resources to be utilized in a coordinated manner and within a European framework.

He also emphasized that the EU should integrate Ukraine within the framework of a future defense union.

“It would be difficult to understand if we Europeans did not see it as a vital interest to integrate Ukraine’s military power into the European defence system,” he said.

He also noted that the European Commission is expected to present the first proposals for the further integration of the European defense market as early as next week, which include a detailed analysis and ideas for further steps.

Kubilius added that even this year they will propose amendments to defense procurement rules and other market regulations.

Read more here...

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/25/2026 - 05:00