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Crypto Scammers Using Couriers To Collect Cash, Avoid Detection: FBI

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times,

Crypto scammers are using couriers to pick up cash from victims in person to avoid being traced by banks, the FBI is warning.

The fraudsters first approach targets, typically seniors, with business or romantic proposals via social media, texts, or a fake cryptocurrency investment profile, the bureau said in a June 15 public service announcement alert.

“After establishing a relationship with the victim, the scammer suggests investing in cryptocurrency and instructs the victim to download specific cryptocurrency trading applications and create investment accounts.”

Typically, victims are asked to send wire transfers to various domestic and international bank accounts under the guise of deposit accounts.

They get access to websites showing fictitious returns on investment, which entices them to deposit even more money.

Legitimate financial institutions often flag such transfers as suspicious and block them. To bypass this, scammers are instructing victims to hand over money to fake investment accounts via in-person cash pickups.

The victims are led to believe the money they send will be deposited into their investment accounts.

“Once the cash pickup occurs and the courier departs, victims can see an increase in deposits in their virtual wallet displayed on their account with the scammer’s investment platform,” the FBI said.

“When the victim attempts to withdraw their perceived profits, scammers will begin the loop over by forcing the victim to pay fraudulent taxes and penalties, again using couriers for cash pickups to perpetrate the fraud.”

In 2024 the FBI issued an alert about couriers being used by scammers who had convinced their victims into liquidating their assets into cash or precious metals.

The fraudsters, posing as tech support or government officials, would insist such an action was necessary to protect the target’s funds because their financial accounts were hacked or at risk of being hacked.

In its latest alert, the FBI advised people to protect their personal information, such as banking details, and to never meet with unknown individuals to hand over cash or other valuables as part of any investment scheme.

“Beware of ‘love bombing,’ a social manipulation technique employed by online scammers and other malicious actors wherein a victim is quickly showered with praise, attention, and manipulated to feel trust and intimacy with a person prior to having their lowered guard exploited by a scam or other malicious behavior,” the agency said.

According to the FBI’s 2025 Internet Crime Report, published in April, the agency’s Internet Crime Complaint Center received 181,565 complaints regarding various cryptocurrency schemes last year, up 21 percent from 2024.

Losses from these complaints totaled over $11.36 billion. The average loss was $62,604, and 18,589 people lost more than $100,000 each.

The largest group of complaints filed were made by people over the age of 60. They also suffered the highest losses, totaling more than $4.43 billion.

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/17/2026 - 15:45

Democrat Politicians Seethe After Baseball Players "Deface" Pride Night With Bible Verses

Recently we reported on the MLB's angry response to three San Francisco Giants players who scribbled bible verses across their "Pride Night" uniforms in a silent protest.  The incident takes place in the midst of a rising tide of popular opposition to the woke movement's political authoritarianism.  Gay pride has become synonymous with the liberal "cry-bully":  Activists who try to assert social dominance over others then play the victim when people fight back.

California State Senator and rabid gay activist Scott Wiener is the epitome of a typical woke cry-bully.  He is perhaps best known as an advocate for the "kink community" and his defense of gender treatments (hormones and sex change surgeries) for children.  He is also a militant supporter of sexualized LGBT propaganda in public schools. 

Wiener has criticized medical facilities that refuse to give gender bending treatments to people under 19 years of age and supported measures to make California a "transgender safe haven".

It's therefore not surprising that Wiener is enraged by anything Christian or biblical entering his big gay domain, and he had a lot to say about the Giant's players who defiled his precious Pride Night. 

Senator Wiener on MAGA Homophobic Backlash Against Major League Baseball:

“On San Francisco Giants Pride Night — also the tenth anniversary of the Pulse nightclub massacre — several players defaced their Pride caps with a biblical passage that has been hijacked by homophobes to…

— Senator Scott Wiener (@Scott_Wiener) June 16, 2026

“On San Francisco Giants Pride Night — also the tenth anniversary of the Pulse nightclub massacre — several players defaced their Pride caps with a biblical passage that has been hijacked by homophobes to ‘take back’ the rainbow from LGBTQ people. The players could have displayed this passage any night of the year but chose to do it only on Pride Night.

The Giants, sadly, took no action in response, which is inconsistent with the Giants’ longstanding support for our LGBTQ community. Major League Baseball then warned the players that MLB rules bar defacement of uniforms. The Giants should publicly commit to enforcing rules around uniform defacement and should not effectively create a homophobia exemption to those rules..."

The state senator acts as if the players broke some kind of law.  Baseball club rules are private business arrangements, not statutes that require the the frantic complaints of a homosexual Karen.  That said, Wiener's response to this event is quite revealing. 

Biblical scripture references are not "defacement", at least not of anything sacred.  But to Wiener, the act is the same as if someone burned a Bible or a Koran.  The woke seething over such a minor thing makes it clear that the LGBT movement is not a civil rights movement; that ended decades ago.  Today, the LGBT movement is a political supremacy movement, and prominent athletes have every right to openly oppose it.  

The pride event featured a number of LGBT promotions, including 10 same-sex married couples renewing their vows before the first pitch (what this has to do with baseball is unclear).  Interestingly, the crowd turnout for Pride Night games has been crashing in the past couple years.

San Francisco Board of Supervisors member and Democrat Matt Dorsey, who is openly gay and claims to be a "person of faith", complained on social media about the bible verses.  He called the incident “disappointing in several respects” and he views the players as “problematically undisciplined".  He asserts that professional athletes’ uniforms are not a “canvas for individual self-expression - especially about politics.”   

This issue is, of course, a matter between the players and their employers, not a matter of politics.  However, the woke movement, which is now in decline, views their takeover of American sports as a particularly important coup.  The traditionally masculine industry is now a platform to spread gay Marxist gender theory.  No one would have believed it a couple decades ago, and the political left is desperate not to lose ground in this arena of the culture war. 

D-backs pitcher Ryan Thompson, who is a proclaimed Christian, spoke on the MLB warning SF Giants players who wrote Bible verses on Pride Night caps:

"I think there's a perceived negativity with this stuff. Landen Roupp wrote a verse on his hat that means he's anti something.… pic.twitter.com/SFFJARW6v6

— Blake Niemann (@Blakes_Take2) June 17, 2026

At bottom, leftists view American culture as a series of platforms to be targeted and co-opted.  They were wildly successful for around a decade, but things are changing rapidly now that the general public is aware of the agenda.  Activist politicians like Wiener are angry about a bible verse on a baseball cap because, to them, this is a symbol of their shrinking power over the common discourse. 

The notion of a political movement rooted in forcing the populace to celebrate the aberrant sexual hobbies of its members is not winning the hearts and minds of anyone.  It's doing the opposite.   

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/17/2026 - 15:25

First Iranian Oil Moves Past US Blockade Ahead Of Deal Signing

By Tsvetana Paraskova of OilPrice.com

Iran’s first observed crude oil exports in two months have moved past the US blockade outside the Strait of Hormuz in a sign that Iran is wasting no time to take advantage of the tentative deal with the United States.

Following the announcement of the deal this weekend, and ahead of a formal signing ceremony expected in Switzerland on Friday, at least three Iranian crude oil tankers have exited the Strait of Hormuz and departed from the region moving past the U.S. blockade so far this week, tanker-tracking firms have said.

TankerTrackers.com has estimated through AIS data corroborated by satellite imagery that at least two supertankers of the National Iranian Tanker Company (NITC) have moved through the U.S. blockade. The very large crude carriers (VLCCs), named Diona and Hero2, have kade perimeter carrying a combined total of 3.8 million barrels of Iranian crude oil between them, TankerTrackers.com said.

“These are Iran's first crude oil exports in two months,” the ship-tracking service said.

BREAKING: CRUDE OIL DEPARTS IRAN FOLLOWING A TWO MONTH LONG NAVY BLOCKADE

According to AIS data which we corroborated yesterday (2026-06-15) by satellite imagery, at least two National Iranian Tanker Company (NITC) VLCC supertankers named DIONA (9569695) and HERO2 (9362073) have… pic.twitter.com/tSesQTcC6K

— TankerTrackers.com, Inc. (@TankerTrackers) June 16, 2026

Another tanker of the National Iranian Tanker Company, the Stream, is approaching the U.S. blockade line from the exclusive economic zone of Pakistan, where she spent the past 7 weeks waiting to enter Iran, according to TankerTrackers.com.

Kpler has observed a third Iran-linked tanker carrying 1 million barrels of Iranian crude that exited the blockade line on Wednesday.

“Iran is wasting no time getting its tankers back into circulation,” said Michelle Wiese Bockmann, senior maritime intelligence analyst at Windward.

The VLCC Dan of the NITC has left the area near the Riau archipelago where it has been dark since May 23 and is now heading to Iran for loading, Bockmann added.

The Iranian oil tanker traffic is intensifying, with the deal that would launch 60-day negotiations set to be signed in Geneva on Friday. In addition, Iran is preparing to take advantage of the U.S. allowing Iranian oil sales immediately upon signing of the agreement. Under the agreement expected to formally end the war between the United States and Iran, Tehran will be allowed to immediately resume oil and fuel sales, the Wall Street Journal reported on Tuesday, citing people familiar with the details of the deal.

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/17/2026 - 15:05

"The Kevin Warsh Era Has Arrived With A Bang": Wall Street Reacts To Warsh's First FOMC

Below is a snapshot of several kneejerk reactions from some Wall street economists, strategists and traders:

Anna Wong, head economist at Bloomberg:

“The Kevin Warsh era has arrived with a bang – in the form of a dramatically shortened FOMC policy statement and a dot plot that didn’t contain any dot from the chairman himself. That marks a break from the eras of former chairs Jerome Powell, Janet Yellen, and Ben Bernanke. But the rest of the committee sent an equally strong signal: They want rate hikes. Half of the committee penciled in hikes this year, while the other half anticipates holding rates steady or cutting once. That means Warsh could play a key role in influencing the direction of rates. We no longer expect the FOMC to cut rates by 25 basis points later this year.”

Christopher Hodge, chief US economist at Natixis

"Thinks this is overall a hawkish move -- rates steady, easing biased removed, no dissents. The statement, much shorter than previous statements, concludes with a commitment to delivery price stability….all in all, a hawkish statement... The statement, much shorter than previous statements, concludes with a commitment to delivery price stability…. all in all, a hawkish statement.”"

Kay Haigh, Goldman Sachs Asset Management

"Today’s meeting confirms that the Fed’s recent hawkish shift was not just about higher energy prices. Despite the recent pullback in oil, half of the members of the FOMC expect rate hikes as soon as this year, reflecting strong labor market and inflation data. Our base case remains that the Fed can just about avoid hikes, but the path is narrow and there will be a high premium on the incoming inflation data.”

Ira Jersey, Bloomberg Economics

“The market is focused on the dot plot for now, with half the committee thinking there will be hikes. The bear flattening seems reasonable based on that. Those who looked for a quiet first Warsh FOMC meeting must be disappointed. Warsh’s stamp on the statement seems evident, with language moving closer to the style used before the Global Financial Crisis. The effort to make the Fed less transparent may reduce day-to-day volatility, but it risks larger jumps when the Fed’s reaction function or economic data surprise markets... “We thought Warsh might be diplomatic in taking on his post as Fed chair, and the creation of these task forces allows for shifts in the way the central bank functions, while giving everyone within the building a voice and giving him a means to express his own views while assessing the those of others.””

Brian Jacobsen, chief economic strategist at Annex Wealth Management

“Warsh turned the table over in the Eccles Building with a radical simplification of the Fed’s policy announcement. By doing this, he’s actually inviting more Fed-speak, not less. Now every Fed President will fill the gap left by the punchy policy announcement. This may backfire on Warsh.”

David Wilcox, Bloomberg Economics: 

"The committee reaffirmed its policy of maintaining ample reserves in the banking system. That’s notable, because the statement didn’t have to address it -- and analysts had been thinking one way Warsh could slim down the Fed’s balance sheet would be to revert from ample reserves to scarce reserves,” Wilcox said. “Today’s statement suggests they’re not doing that -- at least not right off the bat.”

Marvin Loh, State Street

“The biggest initial message from Warsh is that the commutations process is changing if we look at the wholesale changes to the policy statement. Bare bones is an understatement and for a market that has become accustomed to extensive Fed communications, we may need to read between the lines more closely with less lines available. We can now wonder how long the presser will last.”

Florian Ielpo, Lombard Odier Investment Managers

“The market moves reflect a repricing of Fed credibility and independence. Inflation is clearly back at the center of the reaction function of the central bank and someone is at its helm. This reinforces a higher-for-longer real rate environment.”

Developing

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/17/2026 - 14:48

California Has Gay-Certification Program To Tap Into $633 Million For "LGBT" Businesses

Authored by Christopher F. Rufo & Austen Hufford via City Journal,

Americans are used to handouts for favored groups. Affirmative action in university admissions, corporate “diversity” initiatives, and minority-owned contracting requirements direct opportunities, resources, and contracts to supposedly “oppressed” groups, such as women, Native Americans, blacks, and Hispanics.

In California, state Democrats have embraced another kind of favoritism: contracts for state-certified gay-owned businesses.

The scheme operates through the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC), which regulates privately owned utility companies. California utilities spent more than $43 billion in 2024 on contractors—fuel suppliers, surveyors, engineers, and others—whose work helps deliver water, gas, electricity, and internet service to California’s 39 million residents.

In 1986, Governor George Deukmejian signed Assembly Bill 3678, which required certain CPUC-regulated utilities to submit annual “plans” for buying goods and services from woman- and minority-owned companies. Two years later, CPUC created its “Supplier Diversity Program,” which would enforce the law and set contracting “goals” for large utilities.

Under a series of Democratic governors, the program has expanded to include gay-owned businesses. In September 2014, then-Governor Jerry Brown signed legislation requiring CPUC to recognize “LGBT-owned businesses” as eligible for supplier-diversity benefits. Five years later, Governor Gavin Newsom expanded the program further, “encouraging” other companies involved in the energy sector to award contracts to gay-owned firms.

In the years that followed, CPUC faced activist pressure as it implemented the gay expansion. BuildOUT California, a since-rebranded LGBT building-industry organization, sent a letter to the commission arguing that “homophobia” existed within “the ranks of the utility companies.” The state’s legislative LGBTQ caucus suggested in a 2021 letter that even considering lower gay-procurement targets was “an insult to the LGBTQ+ community.”

By 2022, CPUC had fully implemented the expansion. In practice, this meant establishing a “goal” for utility companies with annual revenues exceeding $25 million to buy things from state-certified LGBT businesses: 0.5 percent of procurement in 2022; 1 percent in 2023; and 1.5 percent in 2024 and beyond. If “large” CPUC-regulated utilities met these “goals” in 2024, they would have sent roughly $633 million to LGBT-owned firms.

This scheme raises an obvious question: How does a business qualify as officially gay? Paperwork. Supplier Clearinghouse, a group that certifies firms for the CPUC program, features a list of qualifications linked on its website. Applicants can secure certification by providing a letter from an “LGBT organization” attesting to their sexual preferences; proof that a newspaper identified them as “LGBT”; or three letters from “personal contacts” written “on company letterhead” attesting to their homosexual orientation. Corporate officials who “falsely represent” their business as gay face up to a year in county jail.

Supplier Clearinghouse also accepts gay-certification letters from the National LGBTQ+ & Allied Chamber of Commerce. The chamber has its own list of accepted documents, including human resources complaints or police records claiming LGBT discrimination. As NGLCC states on its website, “Certification is a journey, not a destination.”

Mary Ann Horton has experienced this “journey” firsthand. Horton, an early internet pioneer credited with helping develop the e-mail attachment, is a white male who “transitioned” and is now married to a woman. Horton’s company, Red Ace, is registered in California as a woman- and LGBT-owned business.

The application process, Horton told City Journal, required “a mess of documentation.” To prove that Red Ace was “lesbian-owned,” Horton sent Supplier Clearinghouse a domestic-partner affidavit. To establish that the business was woman-owned, Horton submitted a birth certificate, which had been reissued in Washington State post-“transition.” To prove transgender status, Horton filed a “therapist carry-letter,” a document from a medical professional certifying transgender identity.

These designations came with perks. After Red Ace secured these labels, Horton said, San Diego Gas & Electric brought the company on as a part-time cybersecurity contractor. During the hiring process, Horton told us, a company official said that being on the diversity list made the contract much easier to secure.

“If I was a straight, white male, I might be concerned I don’t have the same opportunity,” Horton said. “It worked out great for me.”

LGBT-owned companies in California play other roles. In 2022, SDG&E spent $8.6 million, or 0.36 percent of procurement, on LGBT businesses, apparently including one that produced a training video on supplier diversity. “Never fear when your Ambassador for Excellence is here,” an animated character says in the video. “I can show you exactly how to source diverse vendors.” Other certified LGBT businesses in California include a sign-language interpreter, a kombucha maker, and a “coaching” firm whose services include a “series” to help people “manage” their feelings about “[t]he latest election cycle.”

In California, preferential public contracting is technically illegal. In 1996, voters approved Proposition 209, which banned the state from granting preferential treatment based on race, sex, or ethnicity in public employment, education, and contracting. More than two decades later, in 2020, they rejected an effort to repeal the ban.

CPUC’s arm-twisting regulations violate the spirit of the law. The commission lists several specific “goals” for utilities’ contracting rates: 15 percent to minority-owned firms; 5 percent to women-owned firms; 1.5 percent to disabled-veteran-owned firms; and, most recently, 1.5 percent to LGBT-owned firms. It claims that these goals are not a “requirement” or “quota.” In practice, however, the agency cajoles utilities into compliance by requiring them to collect extensive demographic data, submit detailed annual reports, list their plans for increasing procurement from favored groups, and explain “any circumstances that may have resulted in not meeting” their procurement “goals.”

Despite the commission’s efforts, however, utilities and businesses don’t seem interested in LGBT certification. Large utilities’ procurement with LGBT-owned businesses decreased by 5 percent in 2024. Supplier Clearinghouse lists 3,750 Minority Business Enterprises, but only 451 LGBT-certified firms.

CPUC did not respond to our request for comment by deadline.

The state imposed these rules based on the view that government spending should not merely purchase goods and services, but should also engineer social outcomes. Under this framework, buying a hammer from a firm owned by a black transgender lesbian has more social value than buying the same hammer from a firm owned by a straight white man.

But Californians don’t need an energy system delivered by gay contractors; they need an energy system that works. Utility regulators should be in the business of regulating utilities, not verifying contractors’ sexual preferences. Companies should award contracts based on competence, quality, and cost—not the sexuality of the business owners.

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/17/2026 - 14:45

Watch Live: Kevin Warsh's First Press Conference As Fed Chair

Warsh's first press conference as Fed Chair is likely to be the most important event risk of the meeting.

With The Fed leaving rates unchanged as practically 100% expected (with no dissents), and a very hawkish signal sent from the 'Dots', the question on everyone's lips is simple: "What Will Warsh Do?" (WWWD?)

Will he shift to a cautiously hawkish path citing a resilient labor market, higher growth and soaring inflation...

...or will he reiterate the current easing bias as support for the lower leg of the 'K-shaped' economy (and what President Trump wants), looking through inflation fears (as the Iran MoU offered him a gift)?

A dovish Warsh would be the surprise with the market more than fully-pricing-in one rate-hike this year:

From a regime-change perspective, he is also expected to drop forward guidance on future Fed actions, even going so far as dropping the 'Dots' (and has been vocal about the size of the Fed balance sheet), which could raise uncertainty and this push bond vol higher.

Amid all of this Bloomberg's Michael Ball says that, from a trading perspective, the curve-flattening case is straightforward: firm growth and sticky inflation keep Fed hiking risks alive at the front end, while fading energy-tail risks and a more independent-looking Warsh should reduce term premium farther out.

A centrist, inflation-conscious Warsh is enough to flatten the curve further.

Reporters will be asking about: a 'missing dot', a drastically more hawkish 'dots', a dramatically-shortened statement, and a clear hawkish bias (seemingly more focus on the inflation side of the maNdate more than employment).

Watch Kevin Warsh's first press conference live here (due to start at 1430ET):

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/17/2026 - 14:25

Big Oil Tankers Abruptly U-Turn Toward Hormuz Ahead Of US-Iran Peace Deal Signing

Ahead of the formal signing of the US-Iran peace deal on Friday, Brent crude futures briefly fell below $80 a barrel, as traders priced a quicker pace of supply flows that could normalize in the Gulf area as the Strait of Hormuz moves toward reopening.

That is welcome news on the US inflation front, with lower crude prices helping ease pressure across gasoline, diesel, freight, and other input costs. Back in the Gulf region, early maritime signals suggest commercial vessels are reversing course and heading toward the Hormuz maritime chokepoint in anticipation of a reopening.

Bloomberg reports that two tankers, the Suezmax Kapodistrias 21 and the VLCC Coslucky Lake, both switched destinations and made abrupt U-turns, heading toward major energy terminals in the Gulf.

Most shipowners remain very cautious about an interim peace deal to resolve the Hormuz disruption, but early movers are trying to capitalize on high freight rates while a risk premium remains attached to any Hormuz transit.

According to Kpler data, 60 supertankers are waiting near the Gulf of Oman, up from just 36 earlier this month. There are also 150 ballasting tankers in that area.

On Tuesday, Bloomberg reported that QatarEnergy is preparing to restart LNG flows at the Laffan complex, which exported almost 20% of global supply last year, at 50% capacity within one month and about 80% within two months - well ahead of earlier timelines. Still, full capacity at the LNG facility could take several years to restore due to war-related damage.

UBS energy research analyst Henri Patricot provided clients with the latest Hormuz flows (up to Sunday):

Oil & gas tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz, in number of ships entering and exiting the Gulf

Oil & gas tankers exiting the Gulf via the Strait of Hormuz, in number of ships

Oil & gas tankers entering the Gulf via the Strait of Hormuz, in number of ships

Estimated oil and gas flows exiting the Gulf, based on DWT, in Mboe/d

Oil and products transit via Strait of Hormuz by destination (Mb/d)

Weekly average crude loadings in the Middle East by port location (Mb/d)

Weekly average oil flows via Hormuz + unidentified exports from Gulf of Oman (Mb/d)

Iran's crude loadings by port (Mb/d)

If the formal signing of the US-Iran peace deal occurs on Friday, tanker throughput through the Hormuz chokepoint could surge as soon as next week, if not shortly after, as shipowners reposition tankers and energy flows begin normalizing through the world's most important maritime chokepoint. However, energy flow normalization will take many months. 

Professional subscribers can read much more on the energy shock and Hormuz at our new Marketdesk.ai portal. 

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/17/2026 - 13:40

FBI Issues Warning For Vacant Property Owners

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times,

American citizens who own vacant property parcels are being targeted by criminals in an identity theft scheme.

“Criminals create fake identifications (drivers licenses and/or U.S. passports), Outlook email addresses, and Voice over Internet Protocol (VoIP) generated phone numbers and use them to impersonate landowners,” the FBI said in a June 16 public service announcement alert.

An aerial view of single family homes in Miami, Fla., on Aug. 1, 2025. Joe Raedle/Getty Images

The malicious actors “can obtain property parcel owner’s personally identifiable information through county or state public websites, data brokers, stolen account information, phishing schemes, or purchased from the dark web or hackers.”

The scammers approach a local realtor or title company while posing as a legitimate parcel owner and sell the properties, according to the FBI. In one instance, a fake deed was used to convince realtors of the sale’s validity.

Once the sale is done, the fraudsters ask for the sale money to be sent to an out-of-state attorney, who is also part of the scheme.

In an August 2024 statement, the American Land Title Association revealed the results of a study showing that 28 percent of title insurance companies experienced at least one seller impersonation fraud attempt in 2023.

The study “also showed that seller impersonation fraud often is caught before the real estate closing is completed. Forty-six percent of companies said identifying and preventing fraudulent transactions before closing was at least somewhat common, compared with 26 percent after closing,” the association said.

The FBI said criminals posing as legitimate sellers in these schemes often communicate only via text, email, or VoIP numbers. They avoid direct meetings, citing excuses such as illness or personal emergencies.

Other signs of such fraud include the seller having limited knowledge of the property, lacking proper documentation, and pressuring to quickly close the sale.

People who plan on buying properties should send a certified letter to the address listed on the land tax record to verify the seller’s legitimacy, the agency said.

Title Fraud

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) warned in an Oct. 22, 2025, statement that owners of vacant properties were at most risk of being targeted by real estate scammers.

Roughly six in 10 real estate experts said they saw instances of title fraud over the previous year. In title fraud, the scammer attempts to illegally transfer ownership or deed of the property. Only 12 percent of such title fraud cases in the previous year involved properties occupied by owners. An overwhelming 62 percent of fraud was related to vacant lands.

“Vacant parcels of land are a favorite target among title pirates because they are not occupied, and they are not usually closely monitored by their actual title owner, who may even be located out of state,” said attorney Victor Petrescu, partner at Levine Kellogg Lehman Schneider + Grossman LLP, according to the NAR statement.

In April, Arizona Gov. Katie Hobbs signed SB 1479 into law, which aims to tackle the issue.

The legislation requires individuals who submit property deals in person to present valid photo identification. County assessors are required to offer a system that allows property owners to opt in to receive alerts when there are changes to ownership or mailing address, according to a House of Representatives document.

In a Feb. 11 statement, Arizona state Sen. Frank Carroll, who sponsored the bill, said: “When criminals are able to forge documents, record false claims, or quietly transfer property without the rightful owner’s knowledge, it erodes trust in our entire system.

“We are enhancing identity verification, increasing penalties for offenders, improving notification systems, and ensuring that no property changes hands without proper approval.”

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/17/2026 - 13:20

"Early Signs Of A Turn In US Consumer Discretionary," UBS Says

Brent crude futures tumbled below the $80-per-barrel level earlier this morning for the first time since March as traders priced in the U.S.-Iran peace deal and the expected reopening of the Strait of Hormuz maritime chokepoint on Friday. Goldman Sachs and RBC Capital Markets both slashed their fourth-quarter Brent crude forecasts, reinforcing the view that the war-risk premium is rapidly deflating.

If oil has peaked, then inflation pressures may have peaked as well, a positive setup that could provide some tailwinds for consumers this summer through lower fuel costs.

Piper Sandler Chief Global Economist Nancy Lazar told clients, "If inflation has indeed peaked, that will boost real incomes (nominal incomes have been solid), a positive for both real consumer spending and housing, but don't expect robust growth in either."

On Monday, GasBuddy data showed the national average for gasoline slipped below the politically sensitive $4-per-gallon level for the first time in months.

We have outlined in countless notes (read here, here, here, and here) that gas prices above $4 forced consumers to trade down across retailers and, in some cases, to pull back on discretionary purchases altogether.

Pump prices are set to tumble further...

Now that energy prices are moving lower, consumer sentiment is likely to improve. UBS analyst Mark Paski told clients about "early signs of a turn in U.S. consumer discretionary."

Paski explained:

Fairly quiet day across the US consumer, despite the move lower in crude oil and rates following headlines over the weekend.

...

The risk/reward in consumer discretionary is beginning to shift from the doldrums seen as recently as two weeks ago. The SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT) versus front-month crude oil (CL1) suggests there is still further upside to the discretionary trade, given crude's move lower this morning. Lower yields should also provide incremental support.

Consumer staples were the second-best performing sector last week (behind materials), and I would expect some residual relief today—particularly within the household and personal care space.

Chart: SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT) 

That said, the CPI for energy is on track to slide for June. But consumers are not out of the woods yet. Months of elevated energy prices have already offset the rapidly fading tailwinds from tax cuts. And not to be the bearer of bad news, but one lagged effect of the energy shock could still show up on supermarket shelves later this year. 

Professional subscribers can read more on consumers at our new Marketdesk.ai portal.

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/17/2026 - 12:25

Snap's Goofy AR Glasses Underwhelm Wall Street After Decade-Long Development Push

Snap's new $2,195 augmented-reality glasses are being viewed by Wall Street analysts less as a mass-market consumer device and more as a developer kit, given the expensive price point.

We suspect Snap's new AR glasses are unlikely to compete with the Meta glasses in terms of mass adoption, as Meta's are half the cost, if not cheaper.

Evan Spiegel showing off the new Specs AR glasses to the public for the first time. pic.twitter.com/pCYBLU9xxH

— Nathie @ AWE (@NathieVR) June 16, 2026

"Earlier today, Evan Spiegel hosted a keynote presentation regarding the Fall '26 SPECS product release; while not entirely unsurprising, premium price point ($2,195) implies product built for 'early adopters', disappointing after a 10yr dev cycle," Wells Fargo tech analyst Alec Brondolo wrote in a note.

Brondolo's first take on the new AR glasses:

• SNAP announces a $2,195 price point for SPECS; to feature 51-degree field of view and four-hour battery life. While Specs price point compares favorably to HoloLens 2 & Vision Pro (both $3,500), it still positions the product with an 'early tech adopter' value prop, disappointing given the length of the dev cycle. Product compares favorably to META Orion prototype from our perspective; field of view smaller (Orion 70 degrees) but unlike META Orion, SPECS doesn't require a 'puck' compute device.
• Value proposition to focus on real-world utility; application layer to be driven by a third-party developer ecosystem. While several use cases were demo'd, we believe SPECS value prop to focus heavily on real-world utility (cooking, auto repair, training for sports, etc.). Snap envisions a robust third-party developer ecosystem, supported by agentic coding, will build experiences on Snap OS. Snap did not make SPECS available for product demos on the floor of the Augmented World Expo conference.
• Not anticipating SPECS to materialize as a meaningful near-term financial driver. We believe 100k units is a 'stretch goal' for the first generation of SPECS, implying $220M of revenue. Assuming 3yrs b/w generations, that further implies $75M of revs / year, or 1% accretion vs. SNAP 2026 consensus revenue; user base likely too small to monetize meaningfully in ads or subscriptions over the near term. While NT revenue pot'l limited, we do believe SPECS will be gross margin positive

In a separate note, Citizens analyst Andrew Boone said Snap's new glasses told clients, "Appears bulky and more akin to Apple's Vision Pro glasses than Meta's Meta Ray-Ban Display from a fashion perspective."

Boone described the new glasses as "more of a developer kit than a consumer product, as it is priced at $2,195."

B. Riley Securities analyst Naved Khan said, "While initial adoption is likely to be limited by the relatively high unit price ($2,195), we expect management will use the launch to further improve the product, with successive models becoming more affordable."

Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Mandeep Singh noted, "Snap's further expansion into hardware with new AR glasses priced at around $2,195 is unlikely to match adoption of Meta's Ray-Ban AR glasses," adding, "The latter's lower price point and proprietary large language model give it an advantage for deploying image generation and voice integration features, while Snap is likely to struggle to create an app ecosystem and agentic functionality."

Snap's release of its new AR glasses comes as Apple pushes deeper into smart glasses following the Vision Pro's failed launch. We have remained adamant that Meta is winning this race, with Ray-Ban smart glasses emerging as the clearest early consumer winner because of their price point. We have also explored the supply chain behind Meta's Ray-Ban glasses, which readers can revisit here.

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/17/2026 - 11:45

Hillary Clinton Blasts Joe Biden After Endorsing Him Twice

Authored by Luis Cornelio via Headline USA,

Twice-failed presidential candidate Hillary Clinton appears to be suffering from buyer’s remorse about the 2024 race.

After repeatedly praising former President Joe Biden’s 2024 campaign, Clinton now says his decision to seek re-election was a “terrible mistake.”

“He made a terrible mistake for himself, his legacy and for the country,” Clinton said Monday of Biden’s decision to run for a second term.

She made the scathing remarks during an interview with a New York Times editor in Manhattan.

Hillary Clinton says Joe Biden made a “terrible mistake” by running for re-election.

“He made a terrible mistake. He made a terrible mistake for himself, his legacy, and for the country.”

Clinton said that had Biden said he was not running, the winner of the primary “would have… pic.twitter.com/Un1O9Q09Cy

— Yashar Ali 🐘 (@yashar) June 16, 2026

The comments are at odds with Clinton’s repeated endorsements of both Biden and former Vice President Kamala Harris during the election cycle.

A Headline USA review of Clinton’s social media found that she spent much of 2024 urging voters to back Biden.

“I’ll be voting Biden,” Clinton wrote on June 28, 2024.

The choice in this election remains very simple.

It's a choice between someone who cares about you—your rights, your prospects, your future—versus someone who's only in it for himself.

I'll be voting Biden. https://t.co/mxkpLIOEux

— Hillary Clinton (@HillaryClinton) June 28, 2024

Clinton quickly endorsed Harris, Biden’s chosen successor, after he exited the race later that summer.

“Here’s what I know: We need to defeat Donald Trump. We need to elect Kamala Harris,” Clinton wrote on Sept. 10, 2024.

Adding to her rebuke on Monday, Clinton said that a different Democratic nominee “would have beaten Donald Trump” if the party had a competitive race.

“I think it was a terrible miscalculation on the part of President Biden,” Clinton continued.

She further suggested the nominee could have been Harris, a governor or a senator. She also said Biden triggered a “terrible dilemma” after he claimed he had never signaled in 2020 that he would be a one-term president.

Her comments come as Biden and former first lady Jill Biden expand their longshot efforts to defend their political legacy amid criticism from Democrats who blame the Bidens for propelling Trump’s grand return to power in 2025.

Biden exited the race only after mounting pressure within his own party following his disastrous performance in the first debate with Trump.

Outlets like Headline USA had long covered the evidence of Biden’s cognitive decline throughout his presidency.

By contrast, Legacy media organizations and Clinton herself downplayed or shielded him from scrutiny.

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/17/2026 - 11:25

The $300 Billion Wager: Inside The Private Fund At The Center Of The U.S.-Iran Framework

A proposed $300 billion investment fund has emerged as one of the most consequential-and politically explosive-features of the U.S.-Iran framework agreement, turning what began as a war-ending diplomatic effort into a test of whether private capital can be used as a substitute for reparations, sanctions relief and state-to-state reconstruction aid. This, of course, is the part where we 'give' Iran $300 billion - though what it actually is and does hasn't been disclosed until now. This isn't unfrozen Iranian assets, and is separate from parallel talks over sanctions relief. Read on and decide for yourself whether Reuters is simply polishing a turd. 

An Iranian woman waves a national flag at Valiasr Square in Tehran. Photograph: Atta Kenare/AFP/Getty Images

According to Reuters, the fund is not designed as a direct U.S. payment to Tehran, nor as a government-backed reparations program. It is described instead as a private investment vehicle intended to unlock large-scale capital for Iran once a final U.S.-Iran deal is signed. More than half of the $300 billion has already been committed, a source with direct knowledge of the arrangement told Reuters, with pledged financing spanning companies and investors from the United States, Gulf Arab states, Asia, South America and Africa.

The fund, reportedly to be called the Reconstruction and Development Fund, would target sectors central to Iran’s postwar recovery and long-term economic reintegration: energy, logistics, manufacturing, transport and broader infrastructure. It would not become operational immediately. Instead, the current memorandum of understanding is expected to structure a 60-day negotiating period during which fund administrators, Iranian officials and prospective investors would scope projects and establish terms.

That timing is crucial. The fund is not the deal itself. It is a prize held behind a series of political, nuclear and security conditions.

From reparations demand to investment vehicle

The financial mechanism appears to have emerged from a failed demand for compensation. Reuters reported that Tehran initially sought $400 billion from Washington for war damages, a request the United States rejected. The compromise was to shift the discussion away from U.S.-paid reparations and toward a private investment structure that could be sold differently to each side.

For Iran, the fund offers a path to reconstruction and economic revival after years of sanctions and months of war. For Washington, it creates a performance-based incentive without requiring Congress or U.S. taxpayers to finance Iran’s recovery. For Gulf states and multinational firms, it could create controlled access to one of the Middle East’s largest and most underdeveloped markets.

That distinction-investment, not indemnity-is the political heart of the arrangement. The White House can argue that Iran is not being handed American money. Tehran can argue that it extracted a massive reconstruction pathway from a conflict it says it survived. Investors can argue that they are not subsidizing Iran’s state but positioning themselves for a potential opening of a long-isolated economy.

But that structure also creates ambiguity. A private fund of this size cannot function in a vacuum. It would depend on sanctions relief, banking access, legal clarity, security guarantees and a durable political settlement. Without those, pledged capital remains theoretical.

The broader deal: Hormuz, sanctions and the nuclear file

The fund sits inside a wider U.S.-Iran framework designed to end the war that began after U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran on February 28. The framework is intended to halt the U.S. blockade of Iran, reopen the Strait of Hormuz and begin a new negotiating track on Iran’s nuclear program, sanctions relief and regional security.

The Strait of Hormuz is central to the urgency. Before the conflict, the waterway handled a major share of global oil and gas shipments. Its closure and militarization created pressure on energy markets, shipping, insurers and governments dependent on Gulf exports. Reopening the strait is therefore not simply a diplomatic concession; it is a global economic priority.

U.S. officials expect traffic through Hormuz to rise gradually, not instantly - so shipping lanes, insurance markets, naval risk, mines, damaged infrastructure and commercial confidence cannot be restored by proclamation. Even if the formal agreement is signed, physical normalization may lag diplomatic announcements.

What Iran must give up

The proposed fund is conditional. Vice President JD Vance has publicly framed the arrangement as a reward Iran could access only if it meets strict obligations. Those obligations include dismantling or permanently constraining its nuclear weapons pathway, eliminating its stockpile of enriched material and accepting a stringent inspection and enforcement regime.

That framing is intended to answer critics who argue that the deal rewards Tehran for escalation. The administration’s argument is that Iran receives nothing meaningful merely for signing. Instead, the framework establishes a staged bargain: Iran opens Hormuz, accepts nuclear limits and permits verification; in return, it can receive sanctions relief, access to frozen assets and eventually participation in a massive private reconstruction fund.

The distinction between the $300 billion fund and frozen Iranian assets is important. Reuters reports that the fund is separate from parallel talks over sanctions relief and the release of Iranian sovereign assets held abroad. Those are different mechanisms with different timelines. Frozen funds involve Iran’s own oil revenues and reserves trapped in foreign banking systems. The $300 billion fund, by contrast, is described as new private investment into Iran.

That separation may be legally and politically useful, but it does not eliminate the core problem: investors will not move at scale unless they believe sanctions relief is real, durable and enforceable.

Why Iran is attractive-and why it has been untouchable

On paper, Iran is exactly the kind of market global capital would normally chase. It has one of the world’s largest combined oil and gas resource bases, a population of more than 92 million, a relatively educated workforce, a diversified industrial base and major needs in refining, petrochemicals, transport, aviation, steel, ports, power and logistics.

But for four decades, Iran has been largely frozen out of global capital markets. U.S. sanctions, secondary sanctions risk, compliance uncertainty and fear of future penalties have kept most major Western banks and corporations away. Even after the 2015 nuclear deal, many large financial institutions remained reluctant to re-enter Iran because they feared violating remaining restrictions or being punished later if U.S. policy changed.

That history is a warning. A commitment to invest is not the same as an executed project. A memorandum of understanding is not the same as bankable legal certainty. And a fund administrator cannot neutralize the risk that a future U.S. administration-or even the current one-could reverse course.

According to Reuters, the deal’s “cash sweeteners” should be treated cautiously. The central contradiction is simple: Iran wants proof of economic benefit before making irreversible concessions, while Washington wants Iranian compliance before allowing major financial benefits. That sequencing problem has bedeviled U.S.-Iran diplomacy for years.

Israel and the regional security dilemma

Israel’s position remains one of the biggest uncertainties. Reuters has reported that Israel is not a party to the U.S.-Iran memorandum and that Israeli officials have insisted they retain freedom of action against threats. Iran, meanwhile, has linked regional calm to Israeli conduct in Lebanon and beyond.

This creates a fragile triangle. The U.S. may be able to negotiate with Iran over Hormuz and nuclear inspections, but it cannot automatically bind Israel to every term Tehran wants. If Israel continues operations in Lebanon or strikes Iranian-linked targets, Tehran may claim the broader bargain has been violated. If Iran or its allies resume attacks, Israel may escalate. Either path could undermine investor confidence before the fund is even created.

That is why the $300 billion headline may obscure the more important question: can the security architecture hold long enough for any money to matter?

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/17/2026 - 11:05

Cushing Stocks Crash To 'Tank Bottoms', Seasonally Lowest Since 2005; SPR Sees Another Huge Drain

Oil prices have tumbled in recent days as optimism grew there would be a lasting Middle East peace agreement, which would mean supplies would be back on track - but investors are taking a breather today with prices marginally higher this morning, rising off three month lows (and the 200DMA) after Trump threatened to 'start bombing again' if he doesn't like the deal (or how Iran is behaving). Solid US macro data also helped lift oil prices (demand).

"The collapse in oil has changed the tone of global markets, supporting bonds (prices) and reducing near-term inflation pressure," noted Tickmill market strategist Patrick Munnelly.

Oil industry experts and shipping companies have warned that it will take time to restore normal operations after the waterway's near shutdown.

Crude inventories held by OECD member countries fell in May to the lowest level since 1990 as governments drew down stocks to offset the blockage of Gulf crude shipments during the Middle East war, the International Energy Agency said Wednesday.

The drawdown since the start of the conflict has reached 163 million barrels in the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development club of wealthy countries, the IEA said in its monthly report.

And so, all eyes on the official situation in the US today for any signs of those drawdowns slowing (API's report suggest not).

API

• Crude -8.33mm

• Cushing -1.5mm

• Gasoline +2.47mm

• Distillates -461k

DOE

• Crude -8.263mm (-3.5mm exp, -5.2mm whisp)

• Cushing -1.606mm

• Gasoline -906k

• Distillates +951k

Crude inventories fell for the 8th straight week (-8.3mm) and Cushing saw another major drop in stocks. Products were mixed...

Source: Bloomberg

At Cushing, Oklahoma, stockpiles declined for the eighth straight week, taking inventories to just above 20 million barrels. That’s the lowest inventories have been at the storage hub since October 2014, and takes us to what are considered essentially 'tank-bottoms', the point at which the hub is unable to fully operate. 

This is the lowest level for Cushing stocks for this time of year since 2005...

Source: Bloomberg

The Strategic Petroleum Reserve saw yet another massive drawdown (8.9mm barrels), down almost 75mm barrels since the war started...

Source: Bloomberg

The US rig count continues to rise along with US Crude Production (now back near record highs)...

Source: Bloomberg

WTI was trading around $76.50 ahead of the official data and rallied uyp to $77 on the report...

Finally, we note that The International Energy Agency warned on Wednesday that the conflict is causing a bigger hit to demand than previously thought, while adding in its first look at next year’s balances that it expects a renewed glut.

Crude prices are down by almost 40% from their peak during the conflict. Producers, shippers and traders are now assessing whether the interim peace agreement will prove to be durable, and how long it will take for vessel transits of the Hormuz chokepoint to be revived in earnest. Sticking points remain, including opposition in Israel, which launched the war with the US in late February.

But the scale of the price drop is already quashing concerns about a further energy-induced inflationary spike.

“This decline is not merely a reduction in the geopolitical risk premium; it is a recalibration of the global oil balance for the months ahead,” said Tamas Varga, an oil analyst at brokerage PVM.

“With oil prices tumbling, inflation expectations are likely to decline, while increases in consumer and producer prices should moderate.”

In addition to the extra supply, the selling pressure that has hit oil markets has been compounded by a clutch of factors.

Technical traders have added to bearish wagers but today's rebound comes right as Brent (briefly) dropped below its 200-day moving average for the first time since February.

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/17/2026 - 10:41

Ease In Our Time

By Micael Every, Global Strategist at Rabobank

Yesterday saw the BOJ hike rates to 1%, the highest level since 1995, and the RBA hold at 4.35%, with some chatter of the next move being down, not up, despite inflation running way above 2%. Today it’s the turn of new Fed Chair Warsh who, like the other central banks, has to deal with a geopolitical backdrop which may or may not allow for any monetary policy easing.

There, the text of the 14-point US-Iran MoU has been leaked ahead of its Swiss signing ceremony on Friday: ironically, it says “Ease in our time.” It allows Iran to immediately sell oil again, including the waiver of all banking and transport sanctions (though US legislation may prove an obstacle re: IRGC terror designation). It also includes the private sector $300bn investment fund for Iran, which Reuters claims has already been half committed.

What does this imply? It’s either a giant TACO that markets look past the full implications of to embrace; or a can-kick until the midterms (after which what?); or the Middle Eastern dish maqluba --not muqlaba (‘confrontation’)-- layers of rice, veggies, and meat prepared one way up, then flipped when served. In other words, a behind-the-scenes-and-rhetoric normalisation from Iran. Ultimately, the proof of that dish is in the eating, and there are still many points to choke on.

NBC reports Iran has continued to fire multiple drones toward ships in Hormuz since the MoU was agreed, with the US shooting them down. The US Navy underlines the Strait still holds “substantial” risk. Insurers therefore remain wary, and as noted yesterday, maritime traffic is more likely to flood out than back in ahead.

Iran is demanding an Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon, which Israel states it will not and just struck Hezbollah again, with Iran now threatening to respond if Israel continues. Trump yesterday suggested Syria, with a history of looking at Lebanon as its own, should take care of Hezbollah (which the Lebanese government wants to disarm, but is unable to), not Israel. Given Syrian president Al-Sharaa’s Al Qaeda background and links to Turkey, with its history of looking at Syria as part of the Ottoman Empire, this does not seem the panacea some might hope for.

The MoU text is vague on uranium: it “will be adequately addressed in a final agreement.” Again, is it maqluba (a deal, flipping the rice) or muqlaba (no deal, flipping the peace)? China is warning the next phase of US-Iran talks will be “more difficult,” which is very clear.

The US is also weighing boosting ties with the Palestinian Authority as it seeks to advance its Gaza Board of Peace and an expanded Abraham Accords, while Israeli PM Netanyahu is said to be dropping election campaign posters showing him alongside Trump, as his opponents are all as hawkish as him re: Hezbollah and Iran, if not on the Palestinian issue.

In short, there are so many layers of rice, veggies, and meat here that’s not clear if anyone can flip the dish without spilling the food: and that’s just the Middle East, which is a current pivot point within a larger global negotiation.

At the G7, Trump promised to support Ukraine and sanction Russia – if Europe helps secure Hormuz. First, with minesweepers… but then with military patrols that offer GCC states a layer of protection (alongside Ukrainian anti-drone tech) should war with Iran restart after the US mid-term elections? Bloomberg reports Europeans are wary of committing naval power quickly. So are South Korea and Japan – but they likely all have a role to play.

Last week, Trump invoked the 1950 Defence Production Act regarding munitions, citing that “conditions exist which may pose a direct threat to the national defence or its preparedness programs," due to "limited production capacity, fragile supply chains, long-lead dependencies, and related production bottlenecks." What does he need this for if we are all friends now?

Elsewhere, the US is suggesting a ‘trusted partner’ AI scheme for its allies, extending what is currently US-only technology, a significant carrot. The European Parliament cleared the way for the EU-US trade deal - and Brussels is gearing up for a trade war with Beijing. Indeed, even as European discourse focuses on the US, it’s not hard to see the contrasting contours of US-EU cooperation in the Middle East and against China. Will it be transatlantic maqluba or muqlaba?

The US is also reaching out to Kazakhstan, offering to build local telecoms infrastructure. Central Asia looks increasingly contested space between Russia, the US, and China. And can Trump rebuild bridges with Indian PM Modi at the G7?

So much is in flux beyond oil, now back below $80 in time for the mid-terms. On which note, yes, ‘markets were right’ there – but to think it was market forces that kept market pricing of oil lower than feared until now is naïve: it was aggressive economic statecraft. If we see more Middle East war ahead, much more statecraft will be required.  

On that broader flux, that the FBI just arrested five people for an alleged plot to attack Trump’s White House lawn 80th birthday UFC event with explosives-laden drones and guns speaks to the zeitgeist.

So does the Wall Street Journal reporting that ‘A $40m Gold Heist Risks Exposing CIA’s Top-Secret Spy Programs’; as the Financial Times notes central banks are repatriating gold as global insecurity rises rather than storing bullion in other countries; and the Nikkei Asia shares that central banks expect their gold reserves to continue to rise as de-dollarization continues, with 84% of related survey respondents seeing such holdings increasing in the next five years.

And against that backdrop, the FT also notes that ‘The world is more dangerous. Why is risk cheaper?’, underlining that capital is piling into insurance because of high returns and low volatility (against our current backdrop!) which leaves some worried about mispricing.

Traditionally, they don’t have to worry because central banks are there to save the day. But right now, those knights in shining armour have a lot of other things to worry about: like swords and armour. Does that still allow them to just “ease in our time”?

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/17/2026 - 10:20

"Late Spring Buyer Rush": US Pending Home Sales Just Surged By The Most In Almost 2 Years

Pending home sales in the US were expected to rise for the fourth straight month in May and they did with a huge beat (+3.8% MoM vs +0.9% MoM exp - above the highest analysts estimate), which was slightly offset by a downward revision for April (from +1.4% to +0.3%).

That is the best monthly improvement in pending home sales since Sept 2024 and that lifted sales by just over 2% YoY.

“A late spring buyer rush - even with mortgage rates not budging - is an indication of pent-up housing demand and consumers’ acceptance of above-6% mortgage rates as the new normal,” NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said in a release.

The Pending Home Sales Index is now at its highest since Nov 2025, after bouncing back from record lows in January...

There has been a notable decoupling between rates and pending sales with the recent rise in rates coinciding with a rise in sales (but of course, sales are lagged relative to rates, by typically a month or more)...

Pending sales climbed in all US regions, with the Northeast leading with an 8.7% increase over the month. Yun noted the Northeast is picking up following a period of low inventory and rising home prices.

As a reminder, because houses typically go under contract a month or two before they’re sold, the pending home sales data tend to be a leading indicator of closings that are captured in the monthly previously owned home sales reports.

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/17/2026 - 10:07

DOJ Sues New York Health Officials Over Alleged Fraud In Medicaid Homecare Program

Authored by Aldgra Fredly via The Epoch Times,

The U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) on June 16 sued New York health officials and a Georgia-based company over an alleged fraud scheme involving the state’s $10 billion Medicaid homecare program.

The lawsuit names state Health Commissioner James McDonald, state Medicaid Director Amir Bassiri, and financial management services company Public Partnerships LLC as defendants.

In its lawsuit, the DOJ asked the court to issue an injunction barring the defendants from making “false statements and misrepresentations” about New York’s Consumer Directed Personal Assistant Program (CDPAP) and prevent what it called the company’s “siphoning of funds from the federal coffers.”

“New York’s failure to police a favored vendor that unlawfully siphoned millions of dollars of Medicaid funding is egregious and betrays the public trust,” Assistant Attorney General Brett Shumate of the DOJ’s Civil Division said in a statement.

CDPAP is one of New York’s largest health benefit programs. It provides home care through lay caregivers to Medicaid patients with disabilities or significant medical needs.

The lawsuit states that more than 250,000 patients and more than 300,000 caregivers participated in the program as of 2024. That same year, the New York Legislature passed a statute consolidating management of CDPAP from hundreds of existing fiscal intermediaries to a single fiscal intermediary.

The DOJ alleged that the New York Health Department awarded Public Partnerships the contract to manage CDPAP through a “sham bid process” in late 2024.

The Justice Department accused Bassiri of being part ​of an effort to disqualify other qualified bidders after he had “personally scored” Public Partnerships’ successful bid.

According to the complaint, Bassiri was part of last-minute email exchanges with other states, in which Health Department officials said they were “under some sort of ‘pressure from our Governor’s Office’” to see if other bidders were qualified.

The DOJ accused the state health department of enabling the company to generate “millions of dollars in excess revenues” from the program by “billing at hourly rates in excess of those anticipated by New York prior to the contract award.”

The department said that Public Partnerships’ self-dealing and New York’s failure to enforce the contract’s terms erased the cost savings the program’s transition was expected to deliver.

“New York’s backroom deal with PPL has cost taxpayers millions of dollars and cast countless Medicaid patients to the curb,” Assistant Attorney General Colin McDonald for the DOJ’s National Fraud Enforcement Division said in the statement.

Public Partnerships has denied the allegations. The company said in a statement to multiple news outlets that it won the contract “through a transparent, competitive process.”

“We strongly disagree with the characterizations in the complaint and will respond fully through the appropriate legal process,” the company said.

In a statement, the New York Department of Health called the lawsuit baseless and lacking merit.

The department said the courts have confirmed that the process of hiring Public Partnerships “was accomplished through a fair and legally sound competitive bidding process.”

It added: “We look forward to the day where these disingenuous attacks can stop and our partners in Washington can look to New York as a model for how to improve to control costs and root out abuses while preserving and improving quality of care.”

A spokesperson for New York Gov. Kathy ​Hochul said, “New York’s decision to move to a single fiscal intermediary has already saved taxpayers more than $1 billion while deterring ‌fraud, ⁠waste and abuse.”

Hochul is not a defendant and was not accused of wrongdoing.

The Epoch Times reached out to both McDonald and Bassiri for comment but did not receive a response by publication time.

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/17/2026 - 09:55

No FISA Without SAVE Act: Trump Calls Out 'Dumocrat' Double-Cross," Keeps Pulte As Acting DNI

Just two years after Donald Trump urged Congress to kill Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act while on the campaign trail, he's now livid that Democrats won't help Republicans pass it.

Trump took to Truth Social early Wednesday morning with a lengthy post accusing 'Dumocrats' of breaking a bipartisan deal on FISA reauthorization - and announced a series of moves that throw a wrench into Senate plans for both intelligence leadership and surveillance powers.

According to Trump, Republicans played themselves - after agreeing with Democrats to accelerate the removal of Acting DNI William Pulte (by fast-tracking Jay Clayton’s confirmation) in exchange for Democratic support on renewing FISA Section 702 surveillance powers. Now, however Democrats are threatening to vote against FISA anyway. 

“The Republicans wound up having fulfilled their commitment, but Dumocrats broke the Deal.”

As a result, Trump said he is canceling today’s Senate hearing for Jay Clayton as permanent DNI. He will not move Clayton out of his current role as U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of New York until Jamie McDonald (a Sullivan & Cromwell partner and Trump’s former personal lawyer, recently nominated to replace him at SDNY) is confirmed - including clearing the “blue slip” process.

In the meantime, Bill Pulte will remain as Acting Director of National Intelligence - who Trump picked to replace Tulsi Gabbard after she said in May she was leaving the administration in June to spend time with her husband following his cancer diagnosis. Pulte has been a controversial pick over his lack of intelligence experience - which led to Trump nominating U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of New York Jay Clayton to be the next DNI.

Southern District of New York U.S. Attorney Jay Clayton at Johnson Houses on Dec. 17, 2025. USAO Southern District of New York/Screenshot via The Epoch Times

Trump explicitly linked his approval of FISA renewal to passage of the SAVE America Act - his priority legislation requiring photo ID, proof of citizenship for voter registration, and strict limits on mail-in ballots.

“Therefore, to add a slight bit of intrigue but, for the Good of the Nation, and the People of our Country, I will not approve FISA without THE SAVE AMERICA ACT going along with it. Not complicated, actually, the Republicans fell into a trap.”

The SAVE America Act - which requires Americans to show proof of citizenship to register to vote and a valid ID to cast a ballot, has stalled in the Senate after the House passed the legislation in February. 

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/17/2026 - 09:20

"Radical Earnings Cut": JPMorgan Sounds Alarm After BMW's Forecast Shock

BMW shares cratered in Germany after the automaker warned investors it would slash its 2026 margin guidance to as low as 1%, down from a prior estimate of as high as 6%, amid weakening demand in China, Middle East-related pressures, rising energy costs, and a deteriorating consumer backdrop hitting sales and profitability.

BMW now expects its pretax profit to fall sharply this year, versus a prior expectation of a moderate decline, and for deliveries in the auto segment to slide, compared with a previous expectation of flat performance.

Here's the new forecast for the year:

• Sees automotive Ebit margin 1% to 3%, saw 4% to 6%, estimate 4.9% (Bloomberg Consensus)

• Sees Automotive return on capital employed 1% to 5%, saw 6% to 10%

JPMorgan analyst Jose Asumendi called the downgrade a major "wake-up call for the auto industry" and warned that the German luxury automaker must address its compact-segment product strategy in China, where European premium automakers have been priced out of the market.

Asumendi called the downgrade a "radical earnings cut" but noted that BMW is generally executing well. He believes the automaker will likely take one-time charges to downsize its global production footprint, with a particular focus on Europe.

Here is Barclays analyst Christophe Boulanger's first take on BMW's big profit warning:

BMW's profit warning signals a sharp cyclical and regional deterioration, with China and macro/geopolitical factors driving a reset in expectations. While management is addressing costs, near-term fundamentals look weak, with recovery deferred to subsequent years. We reiterate our UW rating.

FY26 outlook sharply downgraded amid China weakness, macro headwinds and restructuring

BMW issued a material profit warning for FY26 on the evening of 16 June, reflecting a sharp deterioration in China and a more challenging macro backdrop (two-thirds of the profit warning). The downgrade is broad-based across volumes, margins, cash generation, and returns, with further measures to adjust the cost base, including a restructuring provision (one-third of the profit warning). This one-off item is said to amortise within two years and not be cash effective in 2026 (indicating a combination of restructuring provisions and impairments). The company will disclose further information at its capital market day in September.

Overall/China market development has been weaker than expected by management at the start of the year. In December 2025, CPCA (Chinese Passenger Car Association) expected flat Chinese passenger car sales in 2026, but in May cut its estimate to -7.6%, then -11%, and to -14.1% on 16 June, versus YTD May actuals of -19.4% for the total market.

New FY26 guidance: Auto deliveries to decline 1-5% (from flat in previous guidance), Auto EBIT margin to range between 1-3% (from 4-6% in previous guidance and 5.3% FY 25), a >15% decline in group PBT (from a 10-15% decline in previous guidance) and FCF to >€2.5bn (from >€4.5bn and €3.24bn in FY25).

Read-across to other OEMs: We view Mercedes as the major OEM on the cross-read (c.50-60% China EBIT exposure vs BMW c.50%). VW is much less exposed at c.20%. We see no meaningful read-across for STLA, RNO.

As stated in our Euroean IG Best Ideas report, 17 June, our Underweight rating on BMW (and Mercedes) is driven by tight valuations versus the peer group (as stated in recent our recent report that highlighted downside risk) and weak FY26 guidance and fundamental outlook.

Shares of BMW in Germany tumbled as much as 12%, the biggest intraday decline in almost two years. For the year, shares are down around 32%.

Shares are trading at Covid lows ...

Citigroup analyst Harald Hendriks explained to clients why his team remains "Neutral" rated on BMW shares:

Conclusion — Yesterday's announcement confirms investor concerns over the sustainability of BMW's China business. While the profit warning helps bring down earnings expectations, the real question is what other way can BMW reliably boost EPS growth and finally build a "momentum" equity narrative? With no obvious positive equity narrative, with FY26E earnings still under downward pressure, with a structural thematic negative industry trend, with continued industry-punishing EU regulations, and with a limited number of investors in European (German) value names, we think BMW's undervaluation may persist. Given we see no new positive catalysts at BMW, we maintain our Neutral rating.

As for the STXE 600 Auto & Parts Index (which includes names such as BMW, Mercedes-Benz, Volkswagen, Stellantis, Porsche, Ferrari, Renault, Continental, Michelin, Valeo, and others), Europe's auto industry has drifted back to 2020 levels.

Europe's left-wing political elites may want to rethink their strategy of allowing low-cost Chinese EVs to flood the continent before the region's industrial base suffers lasting damage. BMW's warning suggests the turmoil is industry-wide and likely spread across the broader European manufacturing complex. Also, climate policies on the struggling continent have been an utter disaster.

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/17/2026 - 08:45

Despite Slumping Sentiment, US Retail Sales See Strongest Annual Rise Since Jan 2023

Despite record low consumer sentiment and declining real wages, BofA's omniscient analysts forecast a blockbuster beat for US Retail Sales for both headline, core, and control group cohorts.

Retail sales should be a blowout beat, according to BofA's real-time card data pic.twitter.com/NZmfqWzVNr

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) June 17, 2026

And they were right with the headline retail sales rising 0.9% MoM in May (+0.6% MoM exp) driving YoY sales up a stunning 6.9% - the best since Jan 2023

Electronics and Food Services saw sales decline very modestly in May while Gasoline Stations, Nonstore Retailers, and Motor Vehicle & Parts Dealers saw the biggest rise...

Core (Ex-Autos and Ex-Autos and Gas) also strongly beat expectations (+0.8% MoM vs +0.6% MoM exp and +0.5% vs +0.3% MoM exp respectively.

Most notably, the 'Control Group' which feeds directly into the GDP caluclation rose 0.7% MoM (better than the 0.4% exp)...

Of course this is all nominal-based.

Interestingly, 'real' retail sales (admittedly crudely adjusted via CPI) continue to rebound from a negative print in December...

Spending does seem to continue improving despite the cataclysmic decline in confidence...

Nevertheless, back to where we started above and the disgruntled consumer. BofA notes that gas prices took another big leg up in May, rising by 7.0% m/m SA in the CPI report. As a result, the share of discretionary categories in the consumer wallet in May 2026 was lower than in May 2025 levels across all income cohorts.

This is noteworthy because this share has been trending up in recent years.

Lower-income HHs are feeling the pinch of the gas shock more: they’ve seen a larger increase in necessary spending, which has led to a widening of the “K” in discretionary outlays.

Will those alligator jaws begin to close now that gas prices are starting to tumble?

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/17/2026 - 08:37

Futures Fade Overnight Gains As Attention Turns To Kevin Warsh's First Fed Decision

US futures are attempting to bounce back from yesterday’s losses on Wall Street led by Tech. As of 8:00am ET, Nasdaq 100 futures lead the charge, with gains of 0.5% versus 0.1% for the S&P 500 future, although both are off session highs. SpaceX’s post-IPO surge continues, with shares adding another 3% in the pre-market while Mag 7 are mixed: NVDA is up 0.4%, while GOOGL is down 0.5%. The Stoxx 600 is up 0.2%, while the MSCI APAC Index gained 0.5% in mixed trade for regional bourses. Overnight, headlines were largely muted: US retail sales print and earnings from Jabil and CarMax come before the open, but the real action comes later, with attention focused on the Fed and Kevin Warsh's first FOMC meeting as governor. Bond markets have mirrored some of this choppiness with the exception of gilts, which have been boosted by soft UK CPI metrics. US yields are down 1bp across the curve ahead of Kevin Warsh’s debut as FOMC Chair. The dollar is mixed versus peers. The krona is a touch weaker after the Riksbank held rates as expected.  Bitcoin is down 1.3%.  Commodities are mostly flat to modestly lower: oil prices have been choppy as investors await the formal signing of the US-Iran peace accord on Friday and financial details of the agreement emerge. WTI crude futures are little changed around $76/bbl.

In premarket trading, SpaceX rises 1.9% to eye a fourth straight day of gains, reinforcing the company’s place among the world’s largest after it surpassed Amazon by market value. Nvidia is outperforming Magnificent 7 peers with semiconductor shares set for a rebound (Nvidia +0.2%, Amazon unchanged, Apple -0.1%, Tesla -0.2%, Meta -0.4%, Microsoft -0.4%, Alphabet -0.5%)

• Figma Inc. (FIG) is up 4.2% after Citi initiated coverage of the design software company with a recommendation of buy on expected growth from artificial intelligence demand.
• La-Z-Boy (LZB) jumps 16% after the home furniture store’s reported adjusted earnings per share for the fourth quarter beat the average analyst estimate.
• ResMed (RMD) slips 1% after Morgan Stanley downgraded the stock to equal-weight from overweight, citing lower revenue growth ahead for the maker of breathing machines.
• Rexford Industrial (REXR) is down 1.4% after JPMorgan analyst Michael Mueller cut the recommendation on the real estate investment trust to underweight from neutral, writing that it’s possible the company will see “muted” or even negative growth in 2028 in core funds from operations per share.

In other corporate news, Amazon is said to be facing a possible lawsuit from the US FTC that may lead to billions of dollars in civil penalties, over claims the e-commerce giant misled advertisers. Kuaishou Technology is in discussions with General Atlantic to lead a first round of financing for its video AI arm, Kling AI, ahead of an IPO.

SpaceX shares are poised for a fourth straight day of gains, rising 3.1% in premarket trading. SpaceX may have made headlines for overtaking Amazon’s market cap on Tuesday, but it will take time to catch up on capex spending, or revenue as this Bloomberg chart shows.

Turning to today's main event - Kevin Warsh's first Fed decision - we noted in our FOMC preview that while rates are expected to be left where they are, investors will be looking to see which Warsh shows up for his first press conference as chair: Trump's advocate for lower rates, or the inflation hawk seen around the global financial crisis. The swaps market is not fully pricing in a 25-basis-point hike until March next year, but Warsh is expected to remove the Fed’s “easing bias” today as inflationary pressure builds. 

Investors remain divided on the Fed’s next move, with forecasts ranging from rate cuts to multiple increases over the coming year. Oil has slumped on expectations a US-Iran agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz will boost supply and ease inflation pressures, prompting investors to reassess the outlook for global interest rates on Fed day. Ahead of the Fed decision, OIS contracts price in around 20bp of tightening by the end of the year. Option traders have been hedging a range of outcomes for Fed policy this year and in early 2027, from cuts to multiple hikes. 

“We’re all poised for a hawkish, ready-to-fight inflation Warsh,” Ian Lyngen, head of US rates strategy at BMO Capital Markets, said in an interview with Bloomberg TV. “What happens if he comes out and he’s a lot more dovish?”

JonesTrading chief strategist Mike O’Rourke highlights that two of Warsh’s primary criticisms of the Fed are its expansive balance sheet and over-communication. The communication includes the Summary of Economic Projections, commonly known as the dot plot. “The forecasts are terrible,” notes O’Rourke. 

Markets are also watching for changes in Fed communications under Warsh. Bloomberg Economics expects the new chair to forgo submitting his own interest-rate projection to the closely watched dot plot, a break from the practice followed by Jerome Powell, Janet Yellen and Ben Bernanke.

“Warsh faces a formidable challenge, striking a balance between President Trump’s desire for lower rates and signalling to the market that he is a credible and independent Fed chair,” said Bank J Safra Sarasin equity strategist Wolf von Rotberg. “Inflationary pressures in the US are unlikely to abate quickly. Solid growth and elevated core inflation suggest a hawkish bias, regardless of oil prices.”

On the geopolitical front, the US and Iran are preparing to formally sign a memorandum of understanding on June 19 in Switzerland. Still, governments, energy investors and shipping companies remain cautious about how quickly traffic through the Strait of Hormuz can return to normal.

Turning to politics, at the G7 meeting in France, AI is in focus with bosses of OpenAI and Anthropic in attendance. Cut-off to frontier AI models is causing concern, notes Bloomberg Opinion columnist Catherine Thorbecke, highlighting a French presidential candidate calling the move a wake up call, adding that “a nation that depends on others for its technology is a nation that can be unplugged overnight.”

Elsewhere, the IEA said world oil consumption will slump by 1.1 million barrels a day this year, worse than its previous forecast of a decline of about 420,000 a day, the biggest drop since Covid in 2020 amid “higher fuel prices and disruptions to product availability.” 

In Europe, the Stoxx 600 is up 0.2%, and holding steady near record highs as investors awaited the Federal Reserve’s rate decision, with German automaker BMW the biggest faller on the Stoxx 600 benchmark after slashing its profitability forecast, weighing on the wider auto subindex. Here are the biggest movers Wednesday:

• Straumann shares jump as much as 11%, the most since October, after the Swiss dental implant maker increased its profitability guidance for the year. Analysts were upbeat on the magnitude of the outlook boost
• Aixtron shares rise as much as 5.8% after JPMorgan analysts raised their estimates for the German semiconductor equipment supplier and set a new Street-high price target for the stock
• PZ Cussons climbs as much as 9.9%, to the highest since September 2024, after the personal care products maker said full-year adjusted operating profit should come in at, or slightly above, the upper end of the previously guided range
• BFF Bank shares rise as much as 13% in Milan trading, the most since May 12, after Italian newspaper MF reported that Banco BPM and Amco may be considering an offer for the bank, without citing sources
• Lenzing advances as much as 12%, the most since August, after Berenberg turns positive on the textile producer for the first time in almost nine years, upgrading to buy from hold to reflect an improvement in pricing
• BMW shares fall as much as 12% after the German carmaker slashed its profitability forecast and ramped up its cost-cutting program, flagging worsening demand in China and negative sentiment from the war in the Middle East.
• Orange shares slip as much as 4.1% to the lowest since March after Barclays reinstated coverage with an equal-weight rating, saying upside value from the recent SFR deal is already caputred in valuation
• Zealand Pharma falls as much as 8.1% after Berenberg cut its recommendation to hold from buy, saying unlocking upside will now take longer than previously anticipated
• Silex Microsystems falls as much as 20% after several brokers initiated coverage of the Stockholm-listed specialist microchip maker that debuted on May 7. SEB starts coverage with a sell rating, saying it’s too richly valued
• Medincell shares slump as much as 16%, the most since April 2022, after the French biopharma company reported full-year revenue that analysts said was weaker than expected

Asian stocks advanced for a fourth straight day as investors awaited the Federal Reserve’s first policy decision under new chairman Kevin Warsh.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.5%, erasing similar losses from earlier in the session. South Korea’s Kospi led regional gains as shares of memory chipmaker SK Hynix Inc. hit a record high. The Fed decision will cap a week of major central bank meetings, after the Bank of Japan raised interest rates and the Reserve Bank of Australia left policy unchanged, both in line with forecasts. Here Are the Most Notable Movers

• Tamron shares surged 24% to a record after the camera lens maker announced an unexpected mid-term plan and a significant expansion of shareholder returns.
• Kuaishou Technology shares gain 7.3% on optimism over Chinese AI firms and news that the company is in talks with General Atlantic for the first-round financing of its video unit Kuaishou Kling.
• SK Hynix shares gain as much as 5.7% to a record after Korea Economic Daily reported the memory chipmaker is preparing a shareholder return policy worth up to 100t won this year.
• Fila SpA has sold 4.25 million shares of DOMS Industries Ltd. for 2,200 rupees each, according to terms of the deal seen by Bloomberg News.
• Chinese printed circuit board supply chain stocks extended their climb after a report that a major upstream supplier plans to raise prices. Senasic Electronics Technology shares soar as much as 100% in their Hong Kong trading debut on Wednesday.
• Merdeka Gold Resources shares rise as much as 3.2% in Jakarta trading after the Indonesian miner offered 89.7 million HDRs at up to HK$26.60 each in its Hong Kong listing.
• Kingboard Holdings shares surge 17.7% after a unit agreed to sell 155 million shares of Kingboard Laminates for HK$76 per share through a block trade agreement.
• Senasic Electronics Technology shares more than doubled in their Hong Kong trading debut on Wednesday.

In FX, the dollar is mixed versus peers. The krona is a touch weaker after the Riksbank held rates as expected.  

In rates, treasuries are marginally richer across the curve, following steady price action in oil and supported by wider gains across gilts, which outperform after UK headline and core inflation figures rose less than expected in May. Treasury yields remain within 1bp of Tuesday’s closing levels, the 10-year around 4.435%, with UK counterpart outperforming by 4bp; following UK CPI data, 10-year gilt yield dropped to a two-month low 4.734% as BOE rate-hike pricing for this year eased slightly. Focal point of US session is first FOMC decision of Chairman Kevin Warsh’s tenure, expected to hold rates steady.  Treasury auctions resume Thursday with $24 billion 5-year TIPS reopening; demand was strong for Tuesday’s 20-year sale

In commodities, WTI futures are up around 0.6% after rebounding from a fresh three-month low in anticipation of a US-Iran deal signing. Bitcoin is down 1.3%. 

Today's US economic data calendar includes May retail sales (8:30am) and April business inventories and May pending home sales (10am)

Market Snapshot

Top Overnight News

• Brent held below $80 as traders bet a US-Iran deal due to be signed Friday will reopen the Strait of Hormuz, restore Iranian oil exports and give Tehran access to a $300 billion development program. BBG
• The Trump administration’s emerging nuclear deal with Iran risks securing fewer restrictions than the deal negotiated by the Obama administration — one he derided and later scrapped. BBG
• As the world awaits the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz following the signing of an interim peace deal between Iran and the US, the United Arab Emirates is working on a highly ambitious plan to try to end its dependence on the critical chokepoint. BBG
• G7 leaders agreed to tighten sanctions on Russia’s oil and gas industry and boost military support for Ukraine. The summit’s final day turns to AI, with OpenAI and Anthropic execs attending. BBG
• Senior Trump administration officials had weighed how to structure potential government equity stakes in major AI companies before the government’s export controls on Anthropic further roiled the industry. Semafor
• US President Trump's administration considered requiring Anthropic to obtain government approval before allowing foreign nationals access to its most advanced AI models, as officials weigh new export control measures for AI tech.
• FOMC Preview: The most important change in the economic data since the last FOMC meeting is the impressive pick-up in job growth that has put the labor market on a sturdier trajectory. This has left the focus on whether the inflation situation is becoming concerning enough to warrant a rate hike. The war and the increase in oil prices will likely drive headline PCE inflation above 4% and leave core PCE inflation above 3% all year. But so far the impact on inflation looks more like the usual passthrough from large oil shocks than the pandemic’s wide-ranging shortages and price spikes. Link
• UK inflation held at 2.8% in May, unchanged ‌from April's 13-month low and below forecasts from both economists and the Bank of England, official figures showed on Wednesday, a day before the central bank's next interest rate decision. BoE expected to keep interest rates on hold at 3.75% on Thursday. RTRS
• Sweden’s Riksbank assesses that it is well-balanced to leave the policy rate unchanged at 1.75 per cent now, but the probability that the rate will be raised later this year has increased in relation to the assessment in March.  Riksbank
• Convertible bond issuance surges as companies rush to raise as much money as possible to fund their AI ambitions. WSJ

Middle East News

• An informed source told Tasnim that Bloomberg's alleged text about the US-Iran MoU is not accurate, adding that the text of the memorandum, based on the agreement of the parties, will not be published after it is signed on Friday. However, this was later corrected, stating that the text will be released after the signing on Friday.
• US Defence Secretary Hegseth and CIA Director Ratcliffe were among the “most pessimistic” about whether the Iranians would honour their commitments to make substantive concessions on their nuclear program, according to CNN.
• A US senior official was said to have dismissed as "preposterous", the reports of side deals in which Gulf states such as the UAE and Qatar could unfreeze Iranian funds they hold, according to Axios.
• The US Senate voted 48-47 to narrowly block a new bid to rein in Trump's war powers.
• Trump administration officials were reported to be discussing ideas to kick-start oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, including offering a fee-based “VIP pass” naval escort through the waterway, according to people familiar with the discussions cited by POLITICO.
• US officials told a CNN reporter that Iran's Supreme Leader has given his tacit approval of the MOU, and that there are internal discussions over whether he could issue a statement ahead of Friday's formal signing ceremony in Switzerland. It was separately reported that US officials downplayed the Iran agreement texts and said that the text omits key back-channel commitments, according to CNN.
• Israeli artillery shelling reported in southern Lebanon, according to SNN.
• Al Jazeera correspondent reported that 10 rockets were fired towards Israeli forces in the vicinity of Kfar Tebnit town in the Nabatieh district of southern Lebanon.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newquawk

APAC stocks ultimately traded mixed, albeit at an improvement from the initial losses seen following the subdued lead from Wall St, where most major indices finished in the red amid renewed tech selling. ASX 200 shrugged off early weakness and edged mild gains with upside led by mining, materials and tech, although further upside in the index is capped by losses in energy and the defensive sectors. Nikkei 225 clawed back initial losses and printed a fresh all-time high after briefly topping the 70,000 level. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp lagged amid losses in auto names and aluminium producers, while they also failed to benefit from a report that the US delayed blacklisting China's DeepSeek and over 100 Chinese firms deemed national security risks. There was also little reaction seen to the PBoC's announcement to add overnight reverse repo instruments and to increase overnight reverse repo operations, as it seeks to improve the efficiency of interest rate transmission.

Top Asian News

• PBoC Governor Pan said they will allow overseas institutions to access yuan liquidity and will add overnight reverse repo instruments at the appropriate time, while he added they will increase overnight reverse repo operations and improve the efficiency of interest rate transmission. Pan also stated that six banks are authorised to conduct offshore foreign exchange transactions in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone, and commented that it is difficult and unnecessary for China's credit growth to maintain its previous pace.
• PBoC announces an adjustment to the temporary overnight reverse repurchase and outright repurchase agreement time which is to be set between 15:00-15:30 local time (08:00-08:30BST/03:00-03:30EDT). PBoC seeks to ensure flexible and efficient use of temporary overnight reverse and outright repurchase agreements in the open market. Furthermore, PBoC said operating rates will be set at the 7-day reverse repurchase rate in the open market minus 25bps and plus 25bps, respectively, and that it will act when the money market overnight rate remains consistently below or above the respective operation rates of the tools.
• Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng said they will step up financial supervision and will vigorously and orderly advance resolution of local government debt, while He added they will issue CNY 300bln special bonds to replenish the capital of financial institutions and that the financial sector will be opened up further.
• China's financial regulator said they will increase regulatory cooperation in emerging areas and will strengthen efforts to avert systemic financial risks. The regulator will also strictly curb unlawful financial activities and address risks in small and medium-sized financial institutions effectively and orderly, while China is to steer financial resources towards emerging and future industries.
• Senior leaders of Japan's ruling party said to have proposed cutting the consumption tax on food to 1% from April 2027 for a two-year period.

European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.3%) start Wednesday's trade mixed, with outperformance in the AEX (+0.7%) while the DAX 40 (-0.2%) lags after BMW cut guidance. Geopolitical newsflow has been light thus far as markets await for the official MoU signing on Friday.
European sectors also lack a clear bias. Technology (+1.2%) and Banks (+0.8%) top the sector pile. Autos (-2.1%) is the worst-performing sector this morning, primarily driven by updated guidance from BMW. The Co. cut its operating auto margin to 1-3% (prev. 4-6%) and said it would intensify cost-cutting, with a negative one-off in the H2'26. Analysts at Deutsche Bank and Jefferies both said the outlook cut was significantly larger than expected, which has resulted in the Co.'s shares slumping as much as 11%. This has dragged peers lower with it (Volkswagen -2.4%, Mercedes-Benz -3.0%)

Top European News

• UK Inflation Rate YoY (May) Y/Y 2.8% vs. Exp. 3% (Prev. 2.8%); Services 3.7% (exp. 3.7%, prev. 3.2%).
• UK Inflation Rate MoM (May) M/M 0.2% (Prev. 0.7%).
• UK Core Inflation Rate YoY (May) Y/Y 2.6% vs. Exp. 2.7% (Prev. 2.5%, Low. 2.6%, High. 3.0%).
• UK Core Inflation Rate MoM (May) M/M 0.3% (Prev. 0.7%).
• EU Inflation Rate YoY Final (May) Y/Y 3.2% vs. Exp. 3.2% (Prev. 3%, Low. 3.2%, High. 3.2%).
• EU Inflation Rate MoM Final (May) M/M 0.1% vs. Exp. 0.1% (Prev. 1%, Low. 0.1%, High. 0.1%).
• EU Core Inflation Rate YoY Final (May) Y/Y 2.6% vs. Exp. 2.5% (Prev. 2.2%).
• ECB Wage Tracker: 2026 Quarterly +2.604% (prev. +2.597% Y/Y); Annual +2.281% (prev. +3.193%).

FX

• DXY is on a modestly firmer footing after softening on Monday alongside a decline in yields and lower oil prices. Focus today is overwhelmingly on Warsh’s first FOMC meeting as chair, where the committee is widely expected to keep the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50-3.75%. Within the meeting, attention will be on language surrounding the easing bias, and the dot plots, which ING believes a removal of the bias alongside a cut to the 2026 dot plot, would support the Buck. Alongside these points, Warsh’s communication will be closely monitored. (Full Fed preview in the Newsquawk Research suite). DXY lacks direction, trading unchanged and supported just above 99.50.
• GBP is a touch lower. In short, a cooler than expected UK CPI print, which falls beneath BoE forecasts on both a headline and core basis, services were also cooler than BoE forecast, but in line/hotter than analyst forecasts, depending on which data vendor is cited. GBP weakened post-data; Cable fell as much as 20 pips to a 1.3408 trough before paring modestly. The pair dipped below its 200DMA at 1.3418.
• Two-way action seen in SEK, which is modestly softer post-announcement despite the forecasts implying a greater chance of a 2026 hike. Pressure that is a function of the fact that the forecasts and statement are based on information up to the 11th of June, as such the fall in energy benchmarks seen in the last few sessions on the US-Iran MOU progress is not accounted for, and therefore the hawkish tilt to the policy forecast is likely to be unwound in the next meeting, if the MOU holds and the energy retreat sticks and/or extends. We may get more details from Governor Thedeen at 10:00BST, and the Minutes on the 24th of June.

Fixed Income

• Global fixed benchmarks are mixed, with USTs a couple of ticks lower whilst Bunds and Gilts gain; the latter outperforms after the UK’s inflation held steady in May. Geopolitical updates have been lacking today, with all eyes on the US-Iran deal signing on Friday. However, Iran’s Tasnim, citing a source, suggested that the text will not be published after the signing on Friday. Though, this was later corrected and it will be released.
• USTs (-2 ticks) hold within a 109-26+ to 109-30+ range. Markets are ultimately on tenterhooks ahead of the Fed policy announcement, which will see the debut of Kevin Warsh as Chair. Policy rates are expected to remain unchanged, so focus will be on whether the easing bias will be removed from the statement. Dot plots are seen to show higher inflation and a more cautious policy path, with the new Chair interestingly not expected to publish a personal dot plot. At the presser, traders will eye whether he attempts to push a dovish agenda and how he contrasts to his fellow board members. From a yield point, Warsh will be eyed for any hints to his thinking on the Fed balance sheet; should markets be guided to faster unwinding of the Fed’s balance sheet, a steeper curve could be expected.
• Bunds (+20 ticks) trade firmer this morning, continuing recent price action. Domestically, the release of the ECB Wage Tracker had little impact on German paper, where the 2026 quarterly figure rose slightly from the prior. Focus ahead turns to the EZ Final Inflation metrics for May, which are expected to remain unrevised. From a yield perspective, the German 10yr has now slipped below the 3.00% mark (current 2.93%), and now approaching levels not seen since early April.
• Gilts (+57 ticks) outperform vs peers following the region’s inflation report. In brief, a cooler-than-expected print on both a headline and core basis. A series that reduces the odds of a hawkish surprise at the June BoE. However, the as-expected/slightly-hotter (depending on the consensus provider) services figure will be a point of concern for policymakers and may well be enough to keep some dissenters in play, even given the significant energy benchmark moderation in recent days. The report will not have any impact on the policy decision at Thursday's meeting (BoE to hold), but could push the vote split a bit more dovish vs consensus; analysts saw a range between 8-1 to 6-3 before the inflation print and recent energy moderation on US-Iran progress.
• Germany sells EUR 2.107bln vs exp. EUR 2.5bln 3.40% 2047 and 1.80% 2053 Bund.
• Australia sells AUD 300mln 4.75% June 2054 bonds b/c 2.46, avg yield 5.3040%.

Commodities

• Crude futures are essentially incrementally firmer, hovering at 3-month lows, as markets await the US-Iran MoU signing in Switzerland. Details of the deal remain light; however, Reuters did shine some light on a point of the draft MoU: the rehabilitation and economic development of Iran. The report stated that a USD 300bln private fund is being designed to trigger investment into Iran. The report added that commitments have already exceeded USD 150bln across 5 regions, while the fund will not contain US government money or grants.
• Energy benchmarks are relatively contained. WTI Aug'26 oscillates in a USD 74.09-76.06 range while Brent Aug'26 rotates in a 77.75-79.57/bbl band.
• Spot gold has come off slightly ahead of the FOMC meeting, in which a hold is expected. Focus will lie in the press conference, in which Fed Chair Warsh is delivering his first post-policy conference in his new role. The yellow metal currently trades at the lower end of its narrow USD 4318-4350/oz range.
• 3M LME Copper flips either side of the USD 13.8k/t handle as market risk is subdued.
• US Private Inventory Data (bbls): Crude -8.3mln (exp. -4.5mln), Distillates -0.5mln (exp. -0.2mln), Gasoline +2.5mln (exp. -1.4mln), Cushing -1.5mln.
• IEA OMR (Jun): World oil demand falling by 1.1mln BPD in 2026 on the Iran War (prev. forecast 420k BPD fall); sees total world oil supply 920k BPD lower than demand in 2026 (prev. forecast 1.7mln BPD lower).
• TotalEnergies (TTE FP) says its Saudi Arabian refinery was hit by three drones but is still only running at 70% and "probably" will not be repaired until early 2027.
• Tanker Trackers reported that two Iranian supertankers carrying a total of 3.8mln barrels of crude oil passed through the US blockade.
• Two US Senate Democrats are calling for US Energy Secretary Wright to abandon efforts to build a West Coast SPR, CNN reported. Democrats warned that establishing it this fiscal year would flout the law and usurp congressional authority.

Trade/Tariffs

• The US delayed the blacklisting of China's DeepSeek and over 100 Chinese firms deemed national security risks, to avoid escalating tensions with Beijing, according to sources cited by Reuters.

US Event Calendar

• 7:00 am: Jun 12 MBA Mortgage Applications, prior 10.8%
• 8:30 am: May Retail Sales Advance MoM, est. 0.55%, prior 0.5%
• 8:30 am: May Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM, est. 0.6%, prior 0.7%
• 10:00 am: May Pending Home Sales MoM, est. 0.9%, prior 1.4%
• 2:00 pm: Jun 17 FOMC Rate Decision; est. 3.75%, prior 3.75%

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

It’s set to be a long day: I was up just before 4am to drop my daughter off for a three-day school trip to Disneyland Paris, and will be up late tonight for England’s first World Cup game while also keeping an eye on the outcome of Fed Chair Warsh’s first FOMC meeting. When I was at school, we had a one-day trip to Thorpe Park, a theme park just three miles away. I vividly remember that it cost £4 to get in. The trip to Disneyland Paris is costing me a little more than that! How things have changed.

Thankfully we can park the rollercoaster market analogies at the moment as relative calm has broken out in markets since the war in the Middle East is now seemingly over. The latest overnight was a reported 14-point US–Iran peace framework (reported by Bloomberg) outlining a broad de-escalation package centred on a permanent ceasefire, the lifting of the US naval blockade and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz with traffic targeted to return to pre-war levels within ~30 days. Crucially, the draft includes immediate waivers for Iranian oil and petrochemical exports upon signing, alongside a broader package of financial incentives including access to frozen assets (timing unspecified) and a ~$300bn externally financed development plan. In return, Iran reiterates its commitment not to pursue nuclear weapons and to neutralise enriched material, with core nuclear constraints deferred to a 60-day second phase of negotiations. Importantly, the benefits appear conditional on compliance, and much of the detail remains fluid ahead of formal signing, underscoring that this is still a high-level MoU rather than a final settlement. The plan is for it to be signed in Switzerland on Friday.

Oil continues to edge lower overnight (Brent -0.42% to $78.61/bbl) after a big fall yesterday with Asian equities relatively quiet. Across the region, the Nikkei (+0.92%) and KOSPI (+0.83%) continue to perform well even with a setback in US tech yesterday that we'll discuss below. The ASX (+0.50%) is also higher with mainland Chinese equities broadly flat and the Hang Seng (-0.37%) slightly lower. S&P 500 (+0.25%) and Nasdaq futures (+0.54%) are bouncing back after a tougher day for US tech on Tuesday.

Ahead of those overnight moves, global markets had mostly put in another decent performance yesterday although a slump in chipmakers weighed on US equities. The main global catalyst was the US-Iran headlines, with Brent crude (-5.06%) posting a fourth consecutive decline as the two sides prepared to sign the memorandum of understanding this Friday. Indeed, Brent hit a three-month low of $78.43/bbl, which in turn has seen investors increasingly price out the chance of stagflation this year. Indeed we saw rising evidence of the US easing its blockade yesterday with Iranian tankers sailing through it with active location trackers for the first time since April.  

That fall in oil prices led to a fresh boost for markets, particularly for European assets which are more exposed to the energy shock. So yesterday saw the STOXX 600 (+0.25%) and Italy’s FTSE MIB (+1.15%) hit another record high, alongside gains for the FTSE 100 (+0.61%) as well.  
But for US equities there was a more divergent performance, as weakness among chip stocks dragged on both the S&P 500 (-0.57%) and the Nasdaq (-1.15%). Continued volatility for chipmakers saw the Philly semiconductor index slump by -5.71% from its record high the previous day, after rising by +15.5% after the three previous sessions. Aside from that though, there were some stronger moves, with most S&P 500 constituents higher on the day and the KBW Banks index (+1.64%) up to a new record.  

Meanwhile, bonds rallied as investors became increasingly optimistic on the near-term inflation profile. The US 1yr inflation swap fell -9.5bps to 2.57%, its lowest since February 27, the day before the strikes against Iran began. And the 1yr Euro inflation swap (-10.0bps) fell to a three-month low of 2.61%, having been above 3.8% less than a month earlier. So that supported bonds on both sides of the Atlantic. In the US, the 2yr Treasury yield (-1.4bps) was down slightly to 4.05%, whilst the 10yr yield (-3.5bps) saw a bigger decline to 4.44%. European sovereigns saw similar moves, with yields on 10yr bunds (-2.5bps), OATs (-3.6bps) and BTPs (-4.1bps) all moving lower.  

Nevertheless, even as oil prices have come down again, there were still warnings about the inflation shock. For instance, ECB chief economist Philip Lane warned that inflation was still in the pipeline, given “four months of elevated energy prices”. He also warned that “There’s going to be indirect effects on food, on goods, on services this year and into next year.” So even with oil prices coming down again, markets are still fully pricing in a second ECB hike before the end of the year, following on from last week’s move.

Speaking of central banks, attention today will be firmly on the Federal Reserve’s decision, which is the first with Kevin Warsh as the new Chair. They’re widely expected to keep rates on hold, but a new Chair often leads to higher volatility at first, because the market is trying to work out their communication style and reaction function. So it could still be an eventful one, even without a change in rates. In terms of what to expect, our US economists think the statement will drop the easing bias from last time, and expect the median dot will no longer signal a rate cut this year, as the last one did in March. Based on prior comments, they think Warsh is likely to avoid forward guidance and an overreliance on short-term data trends. And they also see him tacking towards the centre of the committee, so not arguing for near-term rate cuts, but not taking rate hikes off the table either. For more details, see the full preview here from our US economists.

In terms of the latest market expectations on the Fed, fed funds futures are pricing 21bps of hikes by year-end, with this pricing actually rising +1.3bps yesterday despite the broader rates rally as expectations for any dovish rhetoric from Warsh appear to have eased.

In other news, the European Parliament voted in favour of the EU trade deal with the US agreed last year, by a 440-151 margin. Although the deal was initially reached last summer, there had been several delays to the ratification process, including earlier this year when Trump was threatening to annex Greenland.  

Finally, there were a few data releases yesterday, including the ZEW survey from Germany. That showed the expectations measure rising more than expected to 10.5 in June (vs. -5.5 expected), a 4-month high. However, the current situation measure fell more than expected to a 6-month low of -81.0 (vs. -78.0 expected). Then in the US, housing starts saw an unexpectedly big drop in May, falling to an annualised pace of 1.177m (vs. 1.430m expected), which was the lowest since May 2020 during the pandemic.

Overnight in Asia, Japan’s trade deficit narrowed unexpectedly to ¥378.7bn in May (vs. ¥547.6bn expected), supported by robust export growth of +17% year-on-year on strong demand from the US and China. Imports also rose (+12.5% y/y) but came in slightly below expectations. Meanwhile, April’s trade surplus was revised down to ¥299.3bn.

Looking at the day ahead, the main highlight today will be the Federal Reserve decision, along with Chair Warsh’s subsequent press conference. We’ll also hear from the ECB’s Sleijpen. Otherwise, we’ll get the UK CPI release for May, along with US retail sales and pending home sales for May.

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/17/2026 - 08:25