Zero Rss

UK, France Lead 30-Nation Military Push To Reopen Strait Of Hormuz

Submitted by Michael Kern of OilPrice.com,

The UK is hosting (yesterday and today) a two-day multinational conference convening military planners from more than 30 countries as Britain and France renew efforts to re-open the Strait of Hormuz.

The two-day conference takes place just after U.S. President Donald Trump late on Tuesday extended the U.S.-Iran ceasefire until negotiations with Iran conclude “one way or the other.”

President Trump has also ordered that the U.S. blockade at the Strait of Hormuz remains in place.

Hopes of U.S.-Iran negotiations resuming as early as Wednesday were dashed after reports emerged that the trip of U.S. Vice President JD Vance to Pakistan, which hosted the previous round of failed talks, has been put on hold.

As of early Wednesday, there were no signs that the talks could resume soon.

The U.S. is keeping the naval blockade outside the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran has called a “siege” and a violation of the ceasefire.

The UK, which early this month hosted the first such meeting, said that this week’s conference is part of the UK and French leadership of a multinational coalition to reopen the Strait.

“The sessions will advance military plans to reopen the Strait, as soon as conditions permit, following a sustainable ceasefire agreement,” the UK government said in a statement.

“The task, today and tomorrow, is to translate the diplomatic consensus into a joint plan to safeguard freedom of navigation in the Strait and support a lasting ceasefire,” UK Defence Secretary John Healey said ahead of the conference.

“International trade, energy security and the stability of the global economy depend on freedom of navigation,” the UK official added.

“By building on our common purpose, strengthening multinational coordination and planning for effective collective action, we can help reopen the Strait, stabilise the global economy and protect our people.”

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/23/2026 - 03:30

Curious Timing: Ukraine Declares Druzhba Pipeline Repaired After New Hungarian PM Elected

Ukraine announced Tuesday it completed repairs to the damaged Druzhba oil pipeline and stands ready to resume pumping Russian oil to Europe, a step Ukrainian officials expect will unlock a long-delayed EU aid package.

The timing is quite interesting and surely not coincidental given that Hungary's newly elected PM Péter Magyar and his victorious Tisza party are now in Budapest rapidly preparing for the transfer of power in Hungary. Magyar just accomplished a dramatic landslide defeat of Viktor Orbán last Sunday.

via AP

The pipeline, which carries crude to Hungary and Slovakia, has sat at the center of a monthslong ratcheting standoff, which served to further distance Hungary under Orban from the EU.

Hungary and Slovakia have accused the Zelensky government of intentionally delaying repairs to pressure them, after a last January alleged Russian strike on Druzhba damaged it, and halted oil flows to central Europe.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has just confirmed on social media, "Ukraine has completed repair work on the section of the oil pipeline that was damaged by a Russian strike," and hence: "The pipeline can resume operation."

"We must continue systematic sanctions pressure on Russia over this war and work on further diversifying energy supplies to Europe," Zelensky said further. "Europe must be independent from those who seek to destroy or weaken it," he added.

EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas told reporters in Luxembourg that an agreement on the funds is expected within 24 hours: "I hope that everything goes well," she said. "Hopefully, all the obstacles are removed."

As for Magyar, his election win was heralded as a substantial victory for the global left wing, from EU globalists to Democrats in the US. Their assumption is that with Orbán's veto power out of play, they will be able to do they want in Ukraine and in Hungary.  However, the new Prime Minster may not be as cooperative as they initially believed.  

Magyar has stated that he will not try to block the €90 billion EU loan to Ukraine which Orbán originally vetoed, but he also stated that Hungary will not be contributing to such loans and that the government will not support any attempt to induct Ukraine into the EU. 

Slovak Economy Minister Denisa Sakova:

Ukraine has started pumping oil through the Druzhba pipeline, and supplies to Slovakia are expected to resume Thursday.

— Polymarket Intel (@PolymarketIntel) April 22, 2026

He also announced this week that he will not allow Hungary to join in the EU's "Migration Pact" and that he plans to further strengthen Hungary's borders. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/23/2026 - 02:45

Newly Elected Hungarian PM Vows To Arrest Netanyahu If He Enters Country

Via The Cradle

Hungary’s incoming Prime Minister, Peter Magyar, stated on April earlier this week that his government will arrest Israeli Prime Minister and 'wanted war criminal' Benjamin Netanyahu if he visits, as Budapest reconsiders the previous government's plan to withdraw from the International Criminal Court (ICC).

“I made myself clear to the Israeli prime minister too, we are not re-entering … because my colleagues examined the matter, and we can still stop withdrawal until June 2,” Magyar said.

The prime minister-elect said his government intends to reverse Hungary’s exit from the ICC before it takes effect, after legal advisors determined the withdrawal process remains incomplete and can still be stopped once his administration takes office.

“The firm intention of the Tisza government is to halt this process and ensure that Hungary remains a member of the ICC,” he stated, adding, “If someone is a member of the ICC and a person who is wanted enters our country, then they must be taken into custody.”

The ICC issued arrest warrants for Netanyahu and his former defense minister, Yoav Gallant, in November 2024 over his role in leading Israel’s genocide against the Palestinian people in Gaza, with the warrant requiring member states to detain individuals sought by the court if they enter their territory.

Magyar’s remarks come despite having invited Netanyahu days earlier to attend a national commemoration later this year, raising questions over the apparent contradiction between the invitation and Hungary’s stated legal obligations.

“I don’t need to spell it out over the phone,” Magyar added, referring to a call last week in which he invited Netanyahu to attend an October ceremony commemorating the 70th anniversary of the Hungarian Uprising. He went on to say, “I assume that every head of state and government is familiar with these laws.”

Magyar’s position stands in direct contrast to that of his predecessor, former prime minister Viktor Orban, who refused to arrest Netanyahu during a 2025 visit and initiated Hungary’s withdrawal from the ICC while guaranteeing him immunity.

Earlier this year, Washington moved to shield Israeli officials from accountability, targeting those pursuing legal action over Gaza instead.

Washington imposed “terrorist-grade sanctions” on ICC judges and UN rapporteur Francesca Albanese, freezing assets and obstructing war crimes probes after she warned major US tech firms – including Alphabet, Amazon, Lockheed Martin, and Microsoft – that their support for Israeli military operations could amount to “gross violations of human rights” in Gaza.

UN officials warned that the sanctions are illegal and risk undermining the broader human rights system, as Washington moves to penalize those pursuing accountability while continuing to arm Israel.

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/23/2026 - 02:00

Oil Conundrum: Record Inventory Draws And Stable Crude Prices

Something strange is taking place in oil. Crude prices have been remarkably stable over the last week, with Brent mostly trading in the high 90s on mixed prospects for the resolution of the over 7-week conflict in the Persian Gulf, despite signs to the contrary: the second round of talks between the US and Iran has been postponed indefinitely following Iran’s decision not to participate; President Trump extended a ceasefire “until such time as their proposal is submitted, and discussions are concluded, one way or the other” and the US maintains its blockade of ships departing from or heading to Iranian ports.

So while the market is rejoicing and trading at daily record highs that all is well, the oil picture remains just as bad as it was when the war started almost two months ago.

According to Goldman, the combination of 1) a lower risk premium, 2) destocking in anticipation of expected Hormuz reopening, and 3) a moderation in spot buying, helps explain why futures crude prices, physical crude prices, and refined products prices have all moderated since the ceasefire despite still low Hormuz flows and extreme draws in global visible stocks.

And yet, global visible oil inventories are likely to reach record-low levels even in an optimistic scenario where Hormuz flows start to recover by the end of April.

Global visible oil inventories have been drawing at an average pace of 6.3mb/d in April so far, while Goldman's estimates of total global oil draws (including “invisible” refined products storage in non-OECD) show 10.9mb/d draws in April so far, the steepest monthly draws on record since 2017. This puts total estimated oil draws since the start of the war at 474mb.

As estimated oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain at 10% of normal or 2.0mb/d (4-day moving average) and as any recovery in flows will likely be gradual even following a complete reopening (given logistical constraints such as reversing shut ins, tanker voyage times and pipeline speed limits), declines in global oil inventories are likely to continue through May or beyond.

Extreme inventory draws also imply that rapidly tightening physical markets will continue to require much higher prices for immediate oil delivery rather than prices for delivery in a few months if market participants assume a high probability of a short-lived disruption. This backwardation is the key explanation of the perceived disconnect between nearby physical oil prices (i.e. prices for immediate delivery) and nearby futures oil pries (i.e. prices for June delivery).

The price of swapping Brent futures from “paper” to physical barrel delivery for the same delivery window (Exchange Futures for Physical, or  EFP) never went above $2/bbl over the last two months. However, the premium for dated Brent for an immediate delivery vs.nearby futures (Dated to Frontline, or DFL) moderated recently from nearly $40/bbl to a still very high $10 as the lag between the delivery periods for both contracts narrowed.

The shift from restocking and panic buying in March to destocking in April likely explains the moderation of prices in physical markets, according to Goldman, with some Asia refineries - especially in China - reportedly re-offering previously purchased crude.

But destocking isn’t sustainable since stocks - as we explained in "How Long Before The World Hits Crude Oil Operational Minimum" - have a natural lower bound, after which the main rebalancing mechanism in the absence of a supply recovery is demand reduction.

And herein lies the problem: the global oil-on-water buffer is approaching its depletion as non-sanctioned oil on water is close to its all-time lows, imports of Russian oil dipped below their 2025 average, and the US waiver on imports of Iranian oil on water expired without an extension.

Meanwhile, US oil exports surged to a record high 12.7mb/d, as outbound shipments suggest even higher exports in May. But some key Texas pipelines are already running at or above their operational capacity, suggesting that further increases in US exports are limited.

Putting all this together, Goldman warns that while the risks to its base case oil price forecast (which is close to current market pricing) are two-sided, there is significant net upside risks from longer Hormuz flows disruptions and potentially more persistent Mideast supply losses.

Meanwhile, as we reported previously, estimated oil flows from the Persian Gulf (including pipeline redirections) are at  9.3mb/d or 40% of normal...

... deteriorating by 2.6 mb/d which is the estimated oil exports from Iran since the US blockade started on April 12th to 0.3mb/d.

More in the full Goldman note available to pro subs.

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/23/2026 - 00:05

From Gaza To BRICS: The Revolt Against The Dollar Order

Authored by Freddie Ponton via 21stCenturyWire.com,

Washington spent decades marketing the dollar as the natural language of world trade, a neutral vessel carrying commerce across borders. In practice, it became the armed currency of an imperial system that bombed states into ruin, sanctioned whole societies, and reserved the right to strangle any country that refused submission.

Unlike the usual churn of de-dollarization commentary, this report does not trade in fantasies of sudden dollar collapse or fairy tales about a BRICS currency descending to save the world overnight. It follows the machinery already taking shape beneath the noise, from national-currency trade and central bank swap lines to sovereign payment systems, digital settlement experiments, and BRICS-linked development finance, while keeping in view the fractures, delays, and contradictions that still run through the structure.

Just as important, this article refuses to separate economics from empire, tying the scramble for monetary sovereignty directly to sanctions, SWIFT weaponisation, the siege of Iran, and the wider coercive order that pushed much of the Global South to start building financial escape routes of its own.

The empire taught the world to flee

What matters here is not another recycled debate, but a grounded map of how a multipolar financial order is taking shape in practice, who is driving it, and why that shift now reaches far beyond the balance sheets of central banks.

That system is now producing its own backlash. Across BRICS and the wider Global South, de-dollarization is no longer a slogan tossed around at summits or a fantasy about a miracle currency waiting just beyond the horizon. It is taking material form through local-currency trade, sovereign payment systems, central bank swap lines, digital settlement projects, and development finance built to reduce exposure to Western-controlled capital.

The shift is not benign because it grows out of pressure, not theory. States that watched Russia cut from major Western financial channels, Iran suffocated under sanctions, and entire economies treated as hostages to US foreign policy have drawn the same conclusion. No nation can claim sovereignty if another power can freeze its trade, choke its banks, and police its payments.

That is why the war on Iran belongs at the heart of the story. The bombs may fall from the sky, but the same system works through banks, reserve currencies, settlement networks, and the threat of exclusion. Military aggression and monetary coercion are not separate instruments. They are two hands of the same order.

The scaffolding of a post-dollar order

A 2025 study on BRICS de-dollarization spearheaded by Podrugina Anastasia Viktorovna, an Associate Professor of the Department of World Economics, Faculty of World Economy and International Affairs, heading the Group for Structural Issues in the World Economy at the Centre for Comprehensive European and International Studies (CCEIS), makes clear that what is emerging is not a dramatic monetary rupture, but a layered architecture. Its pillars are already visible in the expansion of national-currency trade, the spread of central-bank swap arrangements, the growth of sovereign payment and messaging systems, the exploration of digital-currency settlement, and the gradual strengthening of financial markets in local currencies. The same study is sober enough to stress that this framework contains many of the necessary parts, but is still not fully functional.

DOCUMENT: Formation of a de-dollarization architecture in the BRICS countries (Source: CWE Journal)

The strongest evidence begins with trade itself. By 2024, more than 90% of bilateral trade between Russia and China was already being settled in national currencies. Around 90% of direct payments between Russia and India were also taking place in national currencies. At the same time, Russia and Iran signed a strategic partnership agreement in 2025 that provided for a move toward national-currency settlements in mutual trade.

But even here, the limits of the transition are visible. The rapid growth of Russia-India trade has left large pools of so-called frozen rupees in Indian banks, exposing a basic problem of local-currency settlement. When trade is imbalanced, and a currency is not freely convertible, the alternative to the dollar can still trap value inside narrow channels. The architecture is advancing, but every such friction point is a reminder that monetary sovereignty needs more than political will; it also needs usable, liquid, and recyclable financial circuits. These are not symbolic gestures. They show what de-dollarization looks like once it leaves the conference hall and enters the bloodstream of real commerce. It means exporters and importers routing around the old imperial middleman. It means countries under siege refusing to let every sale, shipment, and invoice pass through a currency system controlled by powers openly hostile to their survival.

But trade settlement alone cannot carry a project this large. Without deeper financial markets in local currencies, even successful trade settlements will hit a ceiling. The architecture described in the first study depends not only on payment systems and swap lines, but on bond markets, development finance, and lending mechanisms able to keep capital circulating outside the dollar’s orbit. That is why the New Development Bank matters so much, and it is not just a lender, but a testing ground for the next stage of de-dollarization, increasing the share of its lending in BRICS currencies from 25% toward a planned 30% by 2026 while pointing toward a larger, still unfinished architecture of local-currency finance.

The same study shows that BRICS states are also trying to build protective liquidity through bilateral swap lines and through the Contingent Reserve Arrangement, created in 2014 with an initial capacity of $100 billion dollars. That mechanism offers a degree of collective financial defense, even if the study notes that access beyond the first 30% of a member’s limit still remains tied to IMF approval, a reminder that the old system has not yet been fully escaped.

Then there is the payment backbone itself. Russia has its own Financial Messaging System (SPFS), China has the Cross-border Interbank Payment System(CIPS), India has its Structured Financial Messaging System (SFMS),  and Iran has its own System for Electronic Payments Messaging (SEPAM). These systems matter because they reduce dependence on SWIFT and give targeted states more space to move when Western governments weaponize financial plumbing. By the end of 2024, SPFS had 584 users, and message volume had risen by 23%. CIPS had 168 direct participants and a network of more than 4,800 banks across 119 countries.

The picture grows even sharper in the realm of digital finance. The same research points to BRICS Bridge and BRICS Pay as important initiatives under discussion, yet it notes that both BRICS Bridge and BRICS Pay remain under active development in 2026, with momentum increasing, but there is still no clearly verified full public launch that can be treated as a settled fact from the strongest available sources. That does not weaken the case. It tells the truth. The alternative order is real, but it is still being assembled piece by piece.

That incompleteness matters. For instance, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) already offers a non-Western proof that regional payment integration can move beyond aspiration into institution, with denser swap arrangements, broader payment connectivity, and more coordinated settlement frameworks than BRICS has yet achieved. The lesson is not that BRICS is failing, but that it remains at an earlier stage of construction, still assembling what others have already begun to normalize.

The next battlefield will not be fought only through reserves and trade invoices. It will also be fought through code. Beyond BRICS Bridge and the still-unfinished payment initiatives already on the table lies a wider digital frontier of interoperable systems, domestic payment integration, programmable money, and new clearing architectures that could one day move value across borders with far less dependence on the dollarized banking chain, and central bank digital currency (CBDCs) will likely play a central role in that shift. If that frontier matures, the most important break with the old order may not arrive as a single new currency at all, but as a mesh of digital rails that quietly makes the old monopolies less necessary. A 2024 working Paper authored by Mayer Jörg, a Senior Economic Affairs Officer in the Division on Globalisation and Development Strategies of the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), titled “De-dollarization: The global payment infrastructure and wholesale central bank digital currencies”, provides with great accuracy, a solid explanation of how CBDCs and multi-CBDC payment architecture could move cross-border settlements away from the dollar-dependent correspondent banking chain and toward interoperable digital systems.

Sanctions turned the dollar into a warning

A 2026 study on greater BRICS cooperation, authored by Yang Lyu, an Associate Research Professor at the China Institutes of Contemporary International Studies, Beijing, P.R. China, explains why this process has accelerated. Countries are not stepping back from the dollar because they suddenly discovered an academic preference for monetary diversity.

They are moving in the same direction for different reasons, and that is why the process advances with both momentum and friction. Russia was pushed forward by sanctions warfare, China by long-term monetary strategy, and others by the simpler need to lower transaction costs, hedge political risk, and widen room for manoeuvre without fully rupturing with the old order. BRICS is therefore advancing not as a perfectly unified bloc, but as a coalition converging on the same infrastructure from very different political starting points.

The study argues that the weaponization of the dollar and of Western payment infrastructure has steadily eroded trust in both. It links that erosion to sanctions, financial blockades, SWIFT exclusion, and the use of monetary dominance as a geopolitical bludgeon. By the end of 2024, it notes, the dollar’s share of global foreign-exchange reserves had fallen below 58%, while its share in cross-border payments had dropped to 42.6%.

At the same time, more than 25% of intra-BRICS trade was already being settled in local currencies by the end of 2024. That does not mean the dollar has been dethroned. It means the world has started to hedge against it, and it has done so for reasons rooted in fear, survival, and bitter experience.

Iran stands as one of the clearest examples. The 2026 study places the blockade of Iran alongside sanctions on Russia, Venezuela, and Cuba as part of the pattern that pushed countries to seek alternatives to dollar-based finance. For states across the Global South, the lesson is no longer theoretical. A reserve currency controlled by an aggressive empire is not simply a medium of exchange. It is a pressure point waiting to be used.

DOCUMENT: Innovating the global payment system through greater BRICS cooperation (Source: Springer)

This is why the de-dollarization debate is often misunderstood in the West. For much of the world, the issue is not whether the dollar remains liquid, deep, and still globally dominant. The issue is whether a country can import food, export energy, finance development, and survive political confrontation without placing its throat inside the same imperial fist.

The same study makes another crucial point. The most advanced path is not a common BRICS currency. That remains the boldest and least immediately feasible option. The most practical path is local-currency settlement, while the most forward-looking one is cross-border digital payment. The deeper story, then, lies not in branding but in infrastructure.

Greater BRICS changes the balance of power

This story becomes even more consequential once BRICS expansion enters the frame.

That expansion matters for another reason as well. BRICS is gaining force not only because it resists Western domination, but because it offers many states in the Global South a more usable political proposition, which offers cooperation without the ritual humiliation of Western conditionality, financing without open submission, and a wider stage on which to pursue sovereignty without formally entering an anti-Western military bloc. That is why its appeal keeps spreading beyond the countries already inside it. For many governments, BRICS is no longer simply an act of defiance. It is a practical project of political and economic reorientation.

The 2026 study featured above argues that the bloc’s enlargement in 2023 and the admission of partner countries in 2024 transformed it from a grouping of major emerging economies into a much broader platform for the Global South.

That expansion changed the scale of the project. According to the study, BRICS economies accounted for more than 40% of global output measured in current dollars and 23% of global goods exports, while holding roughly half of the world’s gold and currency reserves. These data point to something material and dangerous from the standpoint of Washington, because a de-dollarizing bloc with this kind of weight does not rest on rhetoric alone, but also on oil, food, mineral reserves, industrial capacity, maritime corridors, overland routes, and enormous demographic scale.

Iran matters here not as an isolated victim of aggression but as part of a larger geography of resistance. The expanded BRICS formation brings together states with leverage in energy, agriculture, transport, minerals, and strategic chokepoints. It gives the search for financial sovereignty a material foundation that is far harder to crush than any single sanctioned state standing alone.

The study also argues that expansion improves the conditions for upgrading core BRICS financial mechanisms such as the New Development Bank, the Contingent Reserve Arrangement, and the bloc’s emerging payment architecture. More members mean more resources, broader expertise, and a greater ability to dilute internal resistance to reform. In plain language, the wider the bloc becomes, the more credible its financial alternatives become.

And that is precisely what makes the process dangerous from Washington’s point of view. Expanded BRICS does not grow in a straight line. It compounds, with each new member, corridor, reserve pool, and payment channel creating fresh advantages that deepen cooperation further and make the whole architecture harder to unwind. The threat is not that BRICS has already replaced the old order. It is that a self-reinforcing cycle has begun, and every successful step gives the next one more weight, more legitimacy, and more staying power.

Corridors need detente

What comes next is not just a struggle over currencies, but over routes. The same states now trying to reduce their exposure to dollar coercion are also trying to build the physical geography of a different order, and that includes ports, rail lines, energy corridors, digital cables, and payment rails that can tie Asia, the Gulf, and Europe together on terms less vulnerable to Western choke points.

That is why detente matters. A corridor cannot function under permanent bombardment, and no Gulf state can turn geography into lasting power while missiles, sanctions, and military escalation keep the region in a state of managed instability.

This is where Saudi Arabia and the UAE need to be understood clearly. They are not confused actors drifting between camps. They are conflicted hinge powers, still tied to Washington’s security architecture, yet increasingly drawn toward the commercial, financial, and geopolitical opportunities opened by BRICS, China, India, and the wider push for non-dollarized trade. Their long-term value lies not in choosing permanent confrontation, but in becoming indispensable connectors between energy producers, capital flows, industrial zones, and the trade arteries running east to west and south to north.

That is also why the politics of detente may prove more decisive than any summit declaration. The faster these corridors become operational outside the chokehold of dollar hegemony, the stronger the material constituency for stability becomes, because every new port link, customs platform, payment interface, logistics hub, and industrial corridor begins to depend on predictability rather than war. In that sense, de-dollarization is not only a monetary process. It is also a question of whether the real economy can be pulled into the same orbit. No payment system can carry history on its own if trade, investment, logistics, energy, agriculture, and industrial cooperation remain too thin to bear its weight.

Financial sovereignty without deeper real-economy integration stays fragile, because money may find a new route while the material life beneath it still depends on supply chains, markets, and chokepoints shaped by the old order. It is a regional stabilization project in embryo, one that gives Gulf capitals a direct economic stake in containing escalation and keeping the routes open.

This is also where the Israeli question becomes harder to ignore.

The original east-to-west corridor vision encapsulated in the early India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor concept (IMEC), and its initial public framing, placed the Gulf at the center and imagined Israel as the Mediterranean outlet for trade moving onward to Europe. On paper, that gave Israel an obvious strategic pitch, where it can market itself as the indispensable logistical hinge between Asia and the Mediterranean. But politics has a way of wrecking maps. Israel’s deepening unpopularity, especially across the Global South, has raised the political cost of any corridor architecture that asks Arab, Asian, and African states to anchor their commercial future to an Israeli hub as though legitimacy were irrelevant.

That does not mean such projects disappear overnight. It means they enter a harsher political climate, where many states will think twice before tying their commercial future to a route entangled with a deeply discredited regional order. In the current climate, Israel will find it hard, perhaps impossible, to market its way out of the Gaza genocide or the devastation left in the wake of its military expansion into Lebanon and Syria. The more unstable and unpopular Israel becomes, the more attractive it will be for Gulf, Asian, and BRICS-linked actors to diversify outlets, multiply routes, and build a wider corridor ecosystem rather than accept any single state as the mandatory gate between East and West. In that sense, the battle over the future is no longer only about who controls the currency of trade, but it is also about who can offer the safest, most legitimate, and most politically sustainable roads along which that trade will move.

The break is unfinished, but it is real

None of this means BRICS has already built a complete replacement for the dollar. The research does not claim that, and the facts would not support it. Several initiatives remain incomplete, some currencies are far more usable internationally than others, and the old order still retains enormous structural advantages in liquidity, habit, and market depth.

But that is not the real measure of what is happening. The real measure is whether a parallel architecture exists in recognizable form, amd it certainly does. Local-currency trade is rising, while sovereign messaging systems are expanding, and swap lines and reserve arrangements are being tested. Digital settlement experiments are clearly moving forward, and the New Development Bank is increasing local-currency lending whilst attempting to reduce borrowers’ exposure to dollar risk.

That is what makes the old imperial center nervous. Endless war did not preserve unipolar power. It only exposed its violence. As for sanctions, they did not restore faith in the dollar order; instead, they taught countries to search for exits. The war on Iran, like the wars that came before it, has only sharpened the lesson.

What is being born will not arrive all at once. It will not come wrapped in a single currency note or announced by a single triumphant headline. It is far more likely that it will arrive through contracts, clearing mechanisms, settlement systems, reserve pools, and political will. The world Washington tried to discipline through force is building routes around that discipline. And this time, the escape route is being built in plain sight, for everyone to recognize.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/22/2026 - 23:50

US Drains Half Its Patriot Arsenal During Iran War, New Military Study Finds

The seven-week Iran war, currently on pause due to an extended ceasefire, has raised alarm in Washington over the question of how fast the US has burned through its missile interceptor stockpile.

The two-week ceasefire, having just been extended, provided an opportunity for both sides to restock and regroup. A fresh analysis from the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) finds the US military tore through nearly half its Patriot interceptor inventory while heavily draining multiple other critical missile stockpiles.

US Army file image

According to CSIS, the Pentagon burned through almost 50% of its Patriot missiles, more than half of its Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) systems - designed to counter short, medium, and intermediate-range threats - and over 45% of its Precision Strike Missiles (PrSMs) during the Iran air and missile campaign.

And the hangover won't be short given that replenishing key munitions - including Tomahawks and JASSMs - back to levels before Trump's latest war of choice in the Middle East could take anywhere from one to four years.

Below is a key line from the fresh CSIS report:

The Trump administration recently announced a series of agreements with industry to boost production and put missile inventories on a “wartime footing.” The large quantities of munitions in the president’s FY 2027 budget request further underscore the urgency of rebuilding and expanding the inventory. Near-term deliveries, however, are relatively low because of small orders in the past. Even if Congress appropriates the requested FY 2027 funds, it will take years for these missiles to be delivered.

Of course, some of these systems were already removed from the Asia-Pacific area, where the US military has an eye on China. These systems are of course central to any future showdown in the Western Pacific.

"Even before the Iran war, stockpiles were deemed insufficient for a peer competitor fight. That shortfall is now even more acute and building stockpiles to levels adequate for a war with China will take additional time," the CSIS report's authors wrote.

However, the Pentagon's line has consistently been that the Untied States military remains the  most "powerful in the world and has everything it needs to execute at the time and place of the President’s choosing."

The reality is that in the opening days of Operation Epic Fury, the US seemed underprepared for the ferocity of the Iranian response. At least 13 American bases in the region were hit and damaged, to the point that US forces across the region had to be moved back, and energy sites across the Gulf were pummeled and suffered billions of dollars in damage.

US interceptors worked in overdrive drying to protect sensitive Gulf facilities and bases, as dozens of inbound Iranian drones and missiles were a daily thing back in March into early April before the ceasefire took effect.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/22/2026 - 23:25

China Tests Directed Energy Beam That Recharges Drones Mid-Flight

Authored by Bojan Stojkovski via Interesting Engineering,

A Chinese research team has successfully tested a wireless power transfer system that beams energy from the ground to a drone in flight using microwaves. 

The setup relies on a mobile emitter that directs energy to an antenna array mounted beneath the aircraft, enabling continuous power delivery without physical connections. Notably, the experiment maintained stable transmission even while both the drone and the ground unit were moving, marking a step beyond static demonstrations. 

Representational image of a Chinese drone.

Analysts have compared the concept to a “land-based aircraft carrier”, where an armoured vehicle could act as both a launch platform and an energy hub, sustaining drone operations in a manner similar to how naval carriers support aircraft at sea.

New system keeps drones flying for over three hours 

The concept could significantly expand how long drones remain in the air, supporting continuous surveillance, strike missions, and electronic warfare without frequent landings. The results, published in the peer-reviewed journal Aeronautical Science & Technology, come from a research team at Xidian University, an institution closely associated with defense-related technologies. 

During trials, the vehicle-mounted system sustained fixed-wing drones in flight for up to 3.1 hours while operating at an altitude of about 49 feet, demonstrating stable power delivery under real-world conditions, the South China Morning Post reported.

According to project lead Song Liwei, one of the main technical hurdles was keeping the microwave emitter precisely aligned with the drone while both were in motion. The team addressed this by combining GPS positioning, a real-time tracking mechanism, and onboard flight control systems to continuously correct the beam’s direction. This coordination allowed stable energy transfer despite movement and environmental variability.

As unmanned systems have become increasingly central to modern ground warfare, militaries and defense researchers have intensified efforts to develop wireless charging and in-flight power delivery technologies. Now, the goal is to reduce dependence on landing cycles and extend the operational endurance of drone fleets in contested environments.

US, China race to develop in-flight drone charging systems

Beyond extending flight endurance, the technology could also reshape drone design by reducing reliance on large onboard batteries, thereby freeing up space and weight for heavier payloads and additional sensors. In practical terms, this would allow smaller platforms to perform more complex missions without sacrificing range or endurance.

In the US, the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) has already backed multiple efforts investigating wireless energy transfer, including radio-frequency and laser-based systems. Furthermore, private companies are also demonstrating laser-based charging concepts, highlighting a parallel push toward airborne energy delivery systems.

Compared with other wireless energy approaches, laser-based systems offer higher precision and longer transmission ranges, but they are vulnerable to disruption from environmental factors such as fog, dust, and atmospheric turbulence. They can also create detectable infrared signatures, which may reveal a drone’s position to adversaries.

Microwave-based transmission takes a different trade-off, as it is generally more robust in poor weather conditions and less affected by line-of-sight degradation. In addition, a single microwave emitter could potentially supply energy to multiple drones at once, which makes the approach more suitable for dense operational environments or contested battlefields where resilience and scalability are critical.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/22/2026 - 23:00

US Treasury Secretary Presses Senate To Pass Crypto Market Structure Legislation

Authored by Micah Zimmerman via BitcoinMagazine.com,

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told a Senate panel Wednesday that passing comprehensive crypto legislation is essential to securing U.S. financial leadership and protecting the dollar’s status as the world’s reserve currency, using an appearance before the Senate Appropriations Subcommittee on Financial Services and General Government to amplify a push for legislation that has stalled on Capitol Hill for months.

Bessent testified at a hearing reviewing President Donald Trump’s Fiscal Year 2027 budget request for the Department of the Treasury. During the session, a senator on the Agriculture Committee raised Bessent’s recent Wall Street Journal op-ed on crypto policy, noting support for the market structure bill that cleared the Agriculture panel in January.

“When the United States leads in best practices, safety and soundness in the financial world — whether it’s our banking system, our securities, or now digital assets — it’s important for the U.S. to lead,” Bessent said. 

He framed U.S. leadership in digital assets as both an economic and national security imperative, arguing it would reinforce the primacy of the dollar as the global reserve currency and bring cryptocurrency activity under domestic anti-money laundering and know-your-customer frameworks.

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent tells the Senate we need to pass Bitcoin & crypto market structure legislation.

"The US has to lead here. We're the technological leader in the world, we should be the payments leader in the world." pic.twitter.com/1hlfrYeToY

— Bitcoin Magazine (@BitcoinMagazine) April 22, 2026

Bessent also characterized digital assets as a critical payments technology, calling blockchain a “payment rail” where American dominance is achievable and necessary.

“We are the technological leader in the world. We should be the payments leader in the world,” he said during the hearing.

Where current crypto legislation stands

The road to a comprehensive crypto market structure law remains fractured.

The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act — commonly known as the CLARITY Act — passed the House in July 2025 by a 294-134 vote and was referred to the Senate Banking Committee that September. 

Meanwhile, the Senate Agriculture Committee advanced its own version, the Digital Commodity Intermediaries Act, in a party-line vote of 12-11 in January 2026. That bill would expand the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s authority to regulate digital commodity spot markets.

The two chambers’ versions must ultimately be reconciled before a final bill can reach the president’s desk. The Senate Banking Committee has not yet scheduled its markup, having delayed action while focused on housing legislation. The senator in the hearing acknowledged ongoing work to ensure the CFTC is fully constituted and adequately resourced before a final deal is reached.

In his April 8 Wall Street Journal opinion piece — referenced in the hearing exchange — Bessent warned that regulatory uncertainty has pushed crypto development to jurisdictions with clear rules, citing Abu Dhabi and Singapore as examples. “A growing share of crypto development has relocated to places with clear rules,” Bessent wrote, adding that “the benefits of domiciling in the U.S. rarely outweighed the risks”.

Wednesday’s testimony reflects a broader strategy by the Trump administration to build on momentum from the GENIUS Act, the stablecoin regulation law signed into law in July 2025. 

Bipartisan support remains a central challenge. The Senate Agriculture Committee’s January vote advanced along party lines after months of negotiations between Chair John Boozman (R-Ark.) and ranking Democrat Cory Booker (D-N.J.) failed to produce a deal.

 Bessent, in the hearing, said he believed outstanding issues — including CFTC staffing and resources — could be resolved to produce bipartisan agreement, calling that outcome “very, very important.”

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/22/2026 - 22:10

U.S. Deploys Ukrainian Acoustic Sensors, Interceptor Drones At Prince Sultan Air Base

Last month's Iranian drone strike on Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia appears to have inflicted a costly toll on U.S. forces in the region. The attack destroyed a U.S. Air Force E-3 Sentry Airborne Warning and Control System aircraft and damaged multiple KC-135 refueling tankers, highlighting a major gap in U.S. air defenses against cheap attack drones.

Nearly a month after the drone strike on Prince Sultan Air Base, and following multiple reports that Ukrainian drone forces had been shifted into the region, Reuters confirmed Wednesday morning that the U.S. has deployed Ukrainian counter-drone technology to defend against Iranian-developed Shahed drones.

At the center of this new security effort to fortify the airspace above Prince Sultan Air Base against low-cost Iranian one-way attack drones is Sky Map, a Ukrainian command-and-control platform used to detect incoming drones. The coordinated response to Shaheds is the use of interceptor drones.

"There have been longstanding gaps in U.S. air and missile defense coverage around the world," said Timothy Walton, a senior fellow at the Washington-based Hudson Institute think tank. "This has been well understood. However, it hasn't been addressed."

Ukrainian drone experts reportedly traveled to the base in recent weeks to train U.S. personnel on Sky Map and the use of interceptor drones.

Sky Fortress, the Ukrainian company behind Sky Map, has been active extensively in the Eastern European theater, with more than 10,000 acoustic sensors deployed to detect Russian drone attacks.

The bigger story here is that Ukraine is emerging as a major dealer of the latest low-cost weapon technology forged through four years of war with Russia:

• Zelensky Goes Full "Lord Of War" As Ukraine Pitches Battle-Tested War Robots To Highest Bidder

• Zelensky's Interceptor Drones Deployed Across Eurasia, Now Shooting Down Iranian Shaheds

• Ukraine Becomes World's AI Weapons Laboratory

Our assessment is that, if we had to get granular, passive acoustic counter-drone detection will become a standard layer of air defense for U.S. military bases, data centers, critical U.S. infrastructure, and government buildings in the years ahead. As cheap attack drones proliferate, adopting passive acoustic sensing systems for early warning will help close the air-defense gap against them. Just wait until these early-detection systems are paired with 'micro' sentry guns and fully automated AI kill chains.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/22/2026 - 21:45

Dr. Oz Says Anti-Fraud Effort Coming To 'All 50 States'

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times,

Dr. Mehmet Oz, the administrator of the agency overseeing Medicaid and Medicare, announced Tuesday that his agency’s anti-fraud effort will come to every state.

During an interview at a Politico-hosted event, Oz said that every U.S. state can expect anti-fraud activities involving funds received through the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid (CMS).

“We are going to announce this week that all 50 states are going to be requested to give us a plan over the next 30 days of how they’re going to re-validate providers in high-risk areas in their states,” Oz said.

Oz explained that it would involve proving whether individuals who are enrolled in CMS programs “really exist” or not, and whether the states “have a right to provide these services.”

“We’re asking the states to own that problem ... red and blue, all of them,” he said, responding to a question from the Politico moderator about whether it involves every state.

He later added that if states “don’t take it seriously, it indicates to us that we might have to take the audits ... more aggressively.”

When asked about a possible deadline, he said CMS is asking the states to provide the agency with a plan over the next month.

Oz, a medical doctor better known as the moniker Dr. Oz from when he was a television personality, oversees the nation’s largest health insurance programs as the administrator of CMS. To date, Oz has sent letters to California, Florida, Maine, and New York alleging fraud in the states’ Medicaid programs.

At the Tuesday event, the Politico interviewer mentioned CMS having issued a statement earlier this month to correct a comment made by Oz on social media that 5.1 million beneficiaries received personal care services, which include things like help with eating, bathing, and dressing.

However, the real number receiving services was about 450,000, the CMS spokesperson said.

Oz’s comment drew criticism from New York Gov. Kathy Hochul’s office, with a spokesperson saying that it was “patently false” and her office is “glad they now admit it.”

During the interview, Oz emphasized the Trump administration’s efforts to address fraud around the country, which federal officials say is needed to rein in runaway spending and protect taxpayers.

With many midterm voters concerned about the cost of living in the United States, President Donald Trump has ramped up efforts to address it, announcing last month that Vice President JD Vance would help balance the nation’s budget by spearheading a national “war on fraud.”

The Trump administration has sought to withhold funding from some Democrat-led states in recent months, citing fraud concerns. This has included child care subsidies and other social services programs in Minnesota, New York, and three other states and with the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) in 22 states that have declined to hand over data that the federal government says is needed to root out fraud.

Lawsuits have been filed in response to the he anti-fraud efforts led by the federal government. In several cases, judges have ruled that the federal money must continue to flow for the time being.

In California, Gov. Gavin Newsom’s office, in response to claims of widespread hospice fraud in Southern California, blamed the Trump administration, in part, for entitlement fraud in the state.

In January, Newsom’s office said in a statement the administration has “dismantled the federal government’s ability to prevent and address fraud.”

“California didn’t wait—we’ve identified and cracked down on hospice fraud for years, taking real action to protect patients and taxpayers,” Newsom said in a statement.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/22/2026 - 21:20

US Blocks Regular $500 Million Cash Pallets Flown To Iraq, Over Pro-Iran Militias

In confirmation of some early reporting we featured at the start of this week, The Wall Street Journal has verified something that Iraqi officials themselves were denying just days ago: the US is blocking Iraq's regular dollar shipments in order to pressure it's Iran-backed militias.

"The Trump administration has suspended U.S. dollar shipments to Iraq and frozen security cooperation programs with its military, escalating the pressure on Baghdad to dismantle powerful Iranian-backed militias," said Iraqi and US officials interviewed in the report.

Pallets of cash and the Middle East should ring familiar, stretching from the Bush-Cheney years to even the Obama years (and Iran sanctions relief as part of the original nuclear deal). In this case, like with the Obama/Iran deal saga before, this is actually Iraq's own oil revenue money.

Memory lane via CNBC: The New York Federal Reserve shipped billions of dollars in physical cash to Baghdad to pay for the reopening of the government & restoration of basic services. Much of it went missing.

In this latest case, a US military plane carrying a half-billion dollars has been delayed on its regularly scheduled delivery.

"A cargo-plane delivery of nearly $500 million in U.S. banknotes, the proceeds from Iraqi oil sales from Federal Reserve Bank of New York accounts, was blocked recently by Treasury Department officials because of U.S. concerns about the militias," WSJ continues, citing the officials.

The publication details, "It was the second scheduled shipment of dollars to the Central Bank of Iraq delayed by the U.S. since the start of the Iran war in late February, the U.S. and Iraqi officials said."

During the height of the March fighting between Iran and Israel, several American facilities across Iraq came under attack, even including the US Embassy in Baghdad's Green Zone. Typically these were drones, or rocket fire, and Erbil and northern Iraq in particular came under heavy fire.

To review from the backgrounder we previously featured: since 2003, a decision issued by Coalition Provisional Authority (CPA) head Paul Bremer has required that all Iraqi oil revenues be paid into an account at the US Federal Reserve Bank of New York, giving the US the ability to control how many US dollars are returned to the CBI.

From that point until today, the Iraqi Ministry of Finance has had to submit funding requests to the US Treasury, which then approves or denies them based on its own criteria.

This monthly transfer of US dollars, flown into Baghdad in pallets of hard cash, determines Iraq's ability to pay for basic needs such as salaries, food, and medicine.

Whenever Washington believes that Iraq is not aligned with US regional goals, including enforcing economic sanctions on Iran, Baghdad's major trading partner and a source of natural gas for electricity production, these fund transfers can be delayed or reduced.

The US halted $13 billion in annual cash shipments to Iraq to pressure Baghdad to act against Resistance groups, the second such suspension since the start of the war on Iran.

— Al Mayadeen English (@MayadeenEnglish) April 22, 2026

Currently the Coordination Framework (CF), which is the largest Iran-aligned parliamentary bloc of Shia parties, is racing to pick a new prime minister for the country - but reportedly neither of the two main candidates are acceptable to Washington.

There's a huge lasting irony to the Iraq war and the Bush-Cheney legacy. The US overthrow of Baathist Sunni Saddam Hussein effectively handed the country over to pro-Tehran leadership. And the US has been dealing with the fallout in the region from the 'Shia axis' ever since.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/22/2026 - 20:55

Tit-For-Tat Assaults On Shipping Widen: US Intercepts 3 More 'Illicit' Tankers In Asian Waters, Iran Seizes Additional 2 In Hormuz Summary

• At least two fully laden Iranian tankers slip past US naval blockade, amid reports of more going dark, BBG reports, but Pentagon denies.

• Reports of three more Iranian tankers being seized by US in Asian waters. Iran in turn seizes 2 more ships in Hormuz, citing "dangerous navigation".

• Trump extends ceasefire by 3-5 days, per White House statement to Fox. Third US carrier precisely 3-5 day away from Mideast waters: Fox

• IRGC seized the MSC Francesca and a Greek-owned ship named Euphoria, which had been attempting to transit the Hormuz chokepoint earlier today. Within hours, a third ship comes under fire by the IRGC.

• Senior Iranian adviser says the US naval blockade is "no different than bombing" and must be met "with a military response".

• Competing narratives emerge over what Iran calls "fake news" as Trump hails "release" of 8 Iranian women said to be facing death penalty.

//--> //--> Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?
Yes 34% · No 67%
View full market & trade on Polymarket

*  *  *

Iran Seizes Two More Ships in Hormuz, In Developing Rapid Tanker Assault Tit-for-Tat

Latest from Newsquawk (nighttime Iran local): Iran seizes two ships in the Strait of Hormuz citing violations and dangerous navigation, according to SNN (state "Student News Network).

Three Iranian Tankers Intercepted by US in Asian Waters

The US appears to be serious about its counter-Iran interdictions going global, as the US military has newly intercepted at least three Iranian oil tankers in Asian waters, per Newsquawk.

The tankers are now being redirected and escorted, according to shipping and security sources, presumably in what will end up being another seizure of Iranian oil on the high seas.

Plot Thickens, Gets More Bizarre: Iran Denies 8 Women Set to Be Executed

There's been a lot of fresh back and forth over Trump's initial Truth Social Post earlier this week: first he demanded that eight young women he said were on death row in Iran for protesting must be released. Then on Thursday Trump proclaimed that Iran complied.

But Iran is rejecting the whole narrative as fake news from the start. "Trump was misled once again by fake news," the judiciary's official Mizan Online website said. "The women who were claimed to be on the verge of execution, some of them have been released, while others face charges that, if convictions are upheld, would at most result in imprisonment." The Times (UK) picked up on the story, but underscored:

The image Trump recirculated was originally created by the Lawfare Project, a pro-Israel organisation based in the US.

The human rights organisation Hiwa identified the women in the post. They included Panah Movahedi Salamat and Ensieh Nejati.

"To the Iranian leaders, who will soon be in negotiations with my representatives: I would greatly appreciate the release of these women. I am sure that they will respect the fact that you did so. Please do them no harm! Would be a great start to our negotiations!!!" - President… pic.twitter.com/pxU8xZFvAh

— The White House (@WhiteHouse) April 21, 2026

While Iran has certainly carried out horrendous executions in the recent past, this particular case has incubator babies hoax written all over it.

Third Carrier 3-5 Days Away

We've been tracking the progress of the USS George HW Bush aircraft carrier as it makes its way to the US Central Command/Mideast area. Interestingly its arrival could correspond with the end of Trump's extended ceasefire by this weekend. Fox News is freshly reporting that the vessel, which will be the third carrier in waters near Iran, is expected to arrive in three to five days. "The USS Bush Aircraft Carrier is expected to arrive in the Middle East within five days," a Fox News reporter has said on X.

It took the 'long way' around Africa in order to avoid the Red Sea, and thus the potential for coming under attack by the Houthis or Iranians.

The aircraft carrier strike group is currently located somewhere off the coast of Tanzania or Kenya and will arrive in the region in 3-5 days, becoming the third aircraft carrier in the war against Iran.

Meanwhile, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian says in a post on X: "Breach of commitments, blockade and threats are main obstacles to genuine negotiations."

Carrier-related air traffic has been observed in this area over about the last day (FlightRadar):

Serious Slippage in US Naval Blockade as Iranian Vessels Go Dark

Confirmation from Bloomberg after some initial unverified claims circulated yesterday: Iran Tankers Go Dark to Sail Past US Blockade Laden With Oil. Additional reports suggest that the total number of Iran-linked tankers slipping through is actually much larger, suggesting the potential unravelling of the US naval blockade of ships visiting Iran's ports:

Donald Trump's naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is unraveling after dozens of Iranian vessels secretly slipped past US surveillance, even as the regime tightened its grip on the critical oil passageway by attacking three tankers.

Approximately 34 Iranian oil tankers have slipped through the blockade, with 19 vessels exiting the Persian Gulf past Trump's navy and another 15 ships entering from the Arabian Sea toward Iran, according to the Financial Times. Six of those tankers were smuggling Iranian crude oil totaling 10.7 million barrels, estimated to be worth approximately $910 million in revenue for the regime.

Of course, the Pentagon's own figures stand in direct contradiction, but the fact that major Western MSM outlets like FT and Bloomberg are picking up on significant numbers getting through doesn't bode well for the Trump blockade.

Meanwhile, the locations of the earlier seizures by Iran's IRGC. Two are being escorted to Iran's coast:

Trump Extends Ceasefire for 3-5 Days

The White House has told FOX Wednesday morning that President Trump has extended the ceasefire by three to five days. This was also reported earlier by Axios, with the US seeking for the Iranian side to "come to the table with a unified approach." There's a growing assumption within the administration that it might be dealing with two competing factions: a civilian government side in Tehran, and the IRGC.

Tasnim meanwhile reports that Iran has made no decision as of yet to negotiate with the US, amid rumblings that talks could resume Friday. WSJ's latest commentary:

Singh [former senior director for Middle East affairs at the National Security Council who is now at the Washington Institute think tank] warned that the blockade could prove a double-edged sword for Washington, at a time when the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is hurting the world economy and driving up U.S. energy prices ahead of November’s midterm elections.

“The blockade is a bet that Iran will break before the rest of the world will, but it’s a risky bet,” he said. “The Iranian regime is fighting for its survival and has demonstrated an ability to withstand the strangulation of its oil exports.”

The latest as both warring sides impose rival blockades in Hormuz:

FT: At least 34 tankers with links to Iran have bypassed the US blockade since it began, according to the cargo tracking group Vortexa, including several carrying Iranian oil— despite President Trump declaring the barricade a “tremendous success”. https://t.co/G3v3VbHnsA

— Annmarie Hordern (@annmarie) April 22, 2026 Third Ship Attacked by IRGC

The IRGC on Wednesday attacked a third vessel of the day in the Strait of Hormuz, rapidly escalating tensions further in the dangerous standoff. The container ship Francesca, owned by Mediterranean Shipping, was targeted while waiting to enter.

"An Iranian gunboat fired on a containership northeast of Oman, before a second vessel reported being fired at off the coast of Iran," according to WSJ. "Then the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps fired on a third ship. The incidents within hours of each other demonstrate that while the aerial war between the U.S. and Iran is on pause, the fight for control of the strait continues." The same publication offers the following outline summary of where things stand on the diplomatic front:

• A senior Iranian adviser said the U.S. naval blockade is “no different than bombing” and must be met “with a military response.”
• Iran’s ambassador to the U.N. said his country is ready to negotiate with the U.S. once it ends the blockade.
• Britain will host military planners from more than 30 countries for two days of talks aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz starting Wednesday.

Iran Seizes Two Ships In Hormuz

The semi-official news agency Fars reports on X that Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps seized the MSC Francesca and a Greek-owned ship named Euphoria, which had been attempting to transit the Hormuz chokepoint earlier today. In total, three ships were targeted this morning by IRGC naval forces, and two were seized.

"The IRGC Navy seized two violating vessels and transferred them to Iran's coast. IRGC Navy Command: Disruption of order and safety in the Strait of Hormuz is our red line," Fars said, adding that both vessels had been "immobilized."

نیروی دریایی سپاه دو کشتی متخلف را توقیف و به ساحل ایران منتقل کرد

فرماندهی نیروی دریایی سپاه: اخلال در نظم و ایمنی تنگه هرمز خط قرمز ماست pic.twitter.com/LyhPFqGMwV

— خبرگزاری تسنیم (@Tasnimnews_Fa) April 22, 2026

Earlier, the British military's United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations Center reported that the two vessels had come under heavy fire in the narrow waterway.

Current snapshot of the waterway via Bloomberg ship-tracking data of tankers:

All three maritime incidents in the Strait come as President Trump has kept the U.S. blockade of Iran in Hormuz in place, and U.S. naval forces seized an Iranian ship over the weekend before boarding another tanker linked to Iran.

Related:

• Tehran Timeline: Iran Has 15 Days Until Its Oil Industry Begins Full Shut-Ins

Overnight, Trump extended a ceasefire with Iran so negotiators "can come up with a unified proposal," but said the naval blockade will continue, while Tehran says it is an "act of war."

Iran's semi-official Tasnim cited the country's envoy to the UN, Amir-Saeid Iravani, as telling reporters: "We have received some sign that they are ready to break it and as soon as they break this blockade, I think that the next round of the negotiations will take place in Islamabad."

Iravani added, "If they want to sit at the table and discuss and find a political solution, they will find us ready. If they want to go to war, in this case also Iran is ready." The status of the next round of US-Iran talks remains unclear. Vice President JD Vance has not departed for Pakistan as expected on Tuesday.

More Latest Regional Developments

via Newsquawk...

• No Iranian delegation, primary or secondary, has traveled to Islamabad; reports about their departure and alleged meeting times are inaccurate, IRIB reported.
• Earlier reports by Al Jazeera, citing a Pakistani diplomatic source, claimed that Iranian and US preliminary delegations were present in Islamabad.
• "A Pakistani official source told Al Arabiya: The US and Iranian delegations will arrive in Islamabad today at the same time"; "The second round of negotiations will be held as scheduled"; "We currently have no information about extending the ceasefire between America and Iran".
• US Vice President JD Vance is scheduled to travel to Pakistan on Tuesday for Iran talks, according to sources cited by Axios.
• US-Iran negotiations may begin Wednesday morning in Islamabad; the US believes there is a split within the Iranian negotiating team, according to Al Arabiya citing CNN sources.
• Pakistani media expect the US and Iran to reach an agreement by Wednesday, according to Al Arabiya.
• An Iranian official told The Washington Post that both sides have largely agreed on the broad outlines of a deal, according to Al Arabiya.
• Pakistan asked the US and Iran to extend the truce for two more weeks; Pakistani media report Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif may announce a ceasefire extension on Tuesday, according to Al Arabiya.
• Journalist Elster wrote: "Pakistani source told Reuters that Trump may attend talks with Iran in person or remotely if an agreement is reached".
• White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said the US has never been closer to a strong deal with Iran and stated that Donald Trump still has options if no deal is reached.
• An Iranian oil tanker entered Iran’s territorial waters despite the US blockade, escorted by the Iranian navy, Al Mayadeen reported.
• Iran’s judiciary chief said it is "very possible" negotiations will fail; in that case, Iran will respond to the US interception of an Iranian ship.
• Iran’s Foreign Ministry condemned the US seizure of the cargo ship Touska and demanded the “immediate release of the Iranian vessel, its sailors, crew and their families,” according to CNN.
• Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said the blockade and ceasefire violations aim to turn negotiations into surrender or justify renewed war and stated Iran rejects talks under threats while preparing new battlefield responses.
• The Israel-Lebanon ceasefire was violated, ISNA reported, citing sources.
• The Israeli army withdrew part of its forces from southern Lebanon following the ceasefire, according to sources cited by Haaretz.
• A UN agency is preparing an evacuation plan for hundreds of ships in the Strait of Hormuz, Bloomberg reported.

* * *

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/22/2026 - 20:44

Federal Appeals Court Rules In Favor Of Ten Commandments In Texas Classrooms

Authored by Kimberley Hayek via The Epoch Times,

A federal appeals court ruled April 21 that the state of Texas may order every public school classroom to display the Ten Commandments, marking a victory to supporters of the law.

The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit, which voted 9–8, upheld Texas Senate Bill 10, overturning a lower-court injunction that had barred the 2025 law from taking effect.

“We conclude the Texas law does not violate either the Establishment Clause or the Free Exercise Clause,” Judge Stuart Kyle Duncan wrote for the majority opinion.

Civil liberties groups for the plaintiffs, which included a coalition of 15 multi-faith Texas families, denounced the decision.

“We are extremely disappointed in today’s decision. The Court’s ruling goes against fundamental First Amendment principles and binding U.S. Supreme Court authority,” the American Civil Liberties Union, ACLU of Texas, Americans United for Separation of Church and State, and the Freedom From Religion Foundation, said in a joint statement.

“The First Amendment safeguards the separation of church and state, and the freedom of families to choose how, when and if to provide their children with religious instruction. This decision tramples those rights. We anticipate asking the Supreme Court to reverse this decision and uphold the religious-freedom rights of children and parents.”

The decision in Rabbi Nathan v. Alamo Heights Independent School District follows oral arguments made during the full 17-judge court hearing in January over both the Texas law and a parallel Louisiana mandate. The court permitted Louisiana’s law to proceed in February.

The Texas Legislature passed S.B. 10 in 2025, and Gov. Greg Abbott signed the measure into law that same year. It was set to take effect on Sept. 1, 2025, requiring every classroom to post a framed or mounted English translation of the Ten Commandments measuring at least 16 by 20 inches so as to be read from anywhere in the room. The displays had to be paid for by donations, not school budgets.

After S.B. 10 passed, 16 families, represented by a coalition that included the ACLU of Texas, filed a lawsuit against 11 school districts. U.S. District Judge Fred Biery of San Antonio issued a preliminary injunction Aug. 20, 2025, ruling the law was in violation of the First Amendment’s Establishment Clause. Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton appealed that ruling to the Fifth Circuit on Aug. 21, 2025.

Paxton issued a legal advisory warning schools to obey the new law, and went on to sue three districts, claiming they had not followed the law.

A second district judge, U.S. District Judge Orlando L. Garcia, granted an additional preliminary injunction Nov. 18, 2025, calling on several school districts to take down the displays and banned them from posting new ones.

Garcia had determined S.B. 10 “runs afoul of the Establishment Clause’s prohibition on government endorsement of religion.”

A hearing before the U.S. Supreme Court is now likely.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/22/2026 - 20:30

Navy Secretary John Phelan Abruptly Departs Trump Admin With No Explanation, "Effective Immediately"

In a terse, one-paragraph statement released this afternoon, the Pentagon announced the immediate departure of Secretary of the Navy John C. Phelan, effective immediately.

Navy Secretary John Phelan speaks at President Donald Trump's Mar-a-Lago club on Dec. 22, 2025, in Palm Beach, Florida. (Alex Brandon/AP)

Undersecretary of the Navy Hung Cao has been elevated to Acting Secretary of the Navy. The announcement, issued by Chief Pentagon Spokesman Sean Parnell (Assistant to the Secretary of War for Public Affairs), offered no explanation for the move and simply thanked Phelan for his service “on behalf of Secretary of War Pete Hegseth and the Deputy.”

STATEMENT:

Secretary of the Navy John C. Phelan is departing the administration, effective immediately.

On behalf of the Secretary of War and Deputy Secretary of War, we are grateful to Secretary Phelan for his service to the Department and the United States Navy.

We wish…

— Sean Parnell (@SeanParnellASW) April 22, 2026

The timing of the firing could hardly be more dramatic. The United States remains engaged in active military operations against Iran following the launch of Operation Epic Fury on February 28 - a joint U.S.-Israel campaign targeting Iranian missile stockpiles, naval assets, and defense infrastructure. Although a ceasefire took effect around April 8, tensions remain extremely high. The U.S. Navy is currently enforcing a naval blockade of Iranian ports in and near the Strait of Hormuz, announced in mid-April after diplomatic talks collapsed. Recent incidents have included the seizure of Iranian-flagged vessels attempting to run the blockade, Iranian attacks on commercial shipping, and ongoing enforcement actions that continue to roil global oil markets and international shipping lanes.

Phelan, a Palm Beach-based private equity investor, art collector, and major Trump donor who had poured millions into supporting the president, had no prior military or Navy experience when he was nominated in late 2024. Despite criticism over his lack of relevant background and potential conflicts of interest stemming from investments in defense contractors such as Dell and Palantir, he was confirmed by the Senate. During his roughly thirteen-month tenure (March 2025–April 22, 2026), Phelan focused heavily on bureaucratic efficiency: he axed Biden-era climate and DEI contracts and grants, reportedly saving approximately $300 million. He also pushed aggressive initiatives to accelerate shipbuilding, increase lethality across the fleet, and deepen partnerships with private-sector technology firms like Palantir.

Just yesterday, Phelan had delivered remarks at the Navy’s annual conference. In February, reports surfaced that he had flown aboard Jeffrey Epstein’s plane in 2006—well before Epstein’s first arrest. Phelan maintained that he was invited by someone else, had no further contact with Epstein, and addressed the matter publicly at the time.

Stepping into the role is Hung Cao, a Navy Captain with more than 25 years of service.

A Naval Academy graduate and decorated combat veteran, Cao’s record includes extensive experience in explosive ordnance disposal (EOD), diving, special operations, and surface warfare. He fled Vietnam as a child refugee from communism, later balancing Navy budgets at the Pentagon and deploying multiple times. Cao ran for U.S. Senate in Virginia with President Trump’s endorsement and was confirmed as Under Secretary of the Navy in October 2025. Supporters have hailed him as a “badass” warrior with genuine operational credibility—the exact opposite profile of the donor-turned-political-appointee he is replacing.

Multiple outlets are already describing Phelan’s removal as a firing orchestrated by Secretary of War Pete Hegseth. The move fits a broader pattern of rapid turnover at the top of the defense establishment under the current administration, driven by demands for loyalty and warfighting readiness. Earlier this year, the Army’s top general was also removed.

Meanwhile, Democrats are pouncing. Sen. Lisa Blunt Rochester (D-DE), framed the sudden change as evidence that things are not going well inside the administration. 

When they fire the Chief of Army and the Secretary of the Navy during a war, they know it’s going badly.

— Senator Lisa Blunt Rochester (@SenLBR) April 22, 2026

As of this writing, no public explanation has emerged from the Pentagon or the White House. 

The Navy’s operational chain of command - Chief of Naval Operations, fleet commanders, and forward-deployed forces - remains unchanged and fully in control. Still, the abrupt leadership transition at the top of the Department of the Navy (now operating under the rebranded Department of War) during active combat operations is historic in its speed and opacity.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/22/2026 - 20:14

After The Bombing, Tehran Confronts Widespread Ruin

After more than a month of conflict, a fragile ceasefire has allowed people in Tehran to begin assessing the scale of destruction, according to a new Bloomberg report.

The city, home to around nine million people, now bears widespread signs of damage, from shattered buildings to entire blocks reduced to rubble.

Although the truce has been extended for now, talks between the US and Iran have stalled, with major disagreements still unresolved around nuclear activity, regional control, and military influence.

The Bloomberg piece notes that the toll has been severe. At least 3,300 people have been killed across Iran, including civilians, and the physical damage is extensive. Because of restrictions on imagery and reporting, the full picture is still unclear, but satellite-based analysis suggests more than 7,600 buildings nationwide have been damaged or destroyed.

In Tehran alone, roughly 2,800 structures were hit. These include not just military or industrial sites, but also homes, businesses, and public facilities, reflecting how tightly intertwined different parts of the city are.

Experts note that even when strikes are intended to be precise, the reality in a dense urban environment is far messier. In Tehran, residential neighborhoods, commercial areas, and government facilities are often located side by side, making it difficult to isolate targets. As a result, the impact of attacks spreads beyond their intended focus, affecting civilian life in ways that are hard to contain.

The war has also deepened Iran’s existing economic and social pressures. Even before the conflict, the country was dealing with high inflation, environmental strain, and ongoing sanctions. Now, reconstruction costs are estimated at roughly $270 billion—close to the size of Iran’s entire economy—and inflation could climb above 70%.

Many businesses have shut down or are operating at reduced capacity, housing damage is widespread, and unemployment is expected to rise, increasing the risk of broader poverty.

Outside the capital, strikes have hit key industrial and energy hubs, disrupting supply chains and production. Damage to major steel plants and petrochemical facilities is already affecting other industries, from manufacturing to food packaging. These knock-on effects are likely to compound the economic strain in the months ahead.

Even if the ceasefire holds, rebuilding will take years, and the path forward remains uncertain as the country grapples with both physical destruction and deep structural challenges.

The uncertainty around what comes next is weighing heavily on residents and policymakers alike. While Iranian officials have floated ideas such as seeking reparations or leveraging control of key trade routes like the Strait of Hormuz to help fund reconstruction, any meaningful recovery will depend on political stability and the easing of international tensions.

Without that, access to capital, materials, and foreign investment will remain constrained, complicating efforts to rebuild critical infrastructure and restore economic activity.

There is also a broader question about how reconstruction will unfold. In past conflicts, rebuilding has sometimes helped drive recovery, but it can also deepen existing imbalances depending on how resources are allocated. As one expert put it, “damage does not only affect the structures that are hit, it also ripples out,” underscoring how the effects extend beyond physical destruction into the social and economic fabric of the city.

In Tehran, where housing, commerce, and public services are tightly interconnected, the challenge will be not just repairing what was lost, but restoring stability in a system already under strain.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/22/2026 - 20:05

Watch: Jon Stewart Gives Trump Rare Credit

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

President Trump’s executive order to slash red tape and accelerate psychedelic therapies for America’s veterans is drawing praise from an unlikely source: Jon Stewart.

In a segment on his show, the longtime Trump critic paused his usual routine to acknowledge the move, calling it a genuine win for those who served. 

The order, signed just days earlier in the Oval Office with Joe Rogan present, directs the FDA to fast-track reviews of promising treatments like ibogaine for PTSD, traumatic brain injury, depression, and addiction.

Jon Stewart gives Trump rare credit for doing veterans “a solid” by fast-tracking ibogaine and other psychedelic treatments for PTSD.

“Ladies and gentlemen… I want to give credit where credit is due. We don’t obviously often do this. The president did a solid.”

“Over the… pic.twitter.com/j5SUpRmVuG

— The Vigilant Fox 🦊 (@VigilantFox) April 21, 2026

“Ladies and gentlemen… I want to give credit where credit is due. We don’t obviously often do this. The president did a solid,” Stewart said.

He continued: “Over the weekend, President Trump signed an executive order… fast-tracking the FDA process for novel psychedelic drug treatments for veterans suffering from all forms of PTSD and other psychiatric conditions, including addiction.”

Stewart even played footage from the signing ceremony, making fun of Trump’s distinctive pronunciation of “ibogaine” before catching himself. “I’m sorry. I’m falling into old habits. It’s good. You did a good thing. I’m nitpicking. I apologize,” he added. 

“A lot of the people are going to get the help they need,” Stewart concluded.

This marks a rare moment of cross-aisle recognition for a Trump policy that puts veterans’ lives ahead of decades-old bureaucratic barriers dating back to the 1970 Controlled Substances Act.

Earlier this month, Trump signed the directive titled “Accelerating Medical Treatments for Serious Mental Illness” in the Oval Office on April 18, flanked by Rogan, RFK Jr., Dr. Mehmet Oz, and Navy SEAL Marcus Luttrell.

Rogan, a longtime advocate for exploring these treatments after hearing from veterans and researchers, played a key role in bringing the issue to Trump’s attention. 

Rogan revealed the conversation that sparked swift action. After texting the president details on ibogaine’s potential for PTSD and opioid addiction, Trump replied almost immediately: “Sounds great. Do you want FDA approval? Let’s do it.”

At UFC 327 in Miami, Trump personally confirmed the move to Rogan. “It’s done. We’re gonna take care of this. This is a good thing. It’s a good thing for the soldiers, good thing for everybody,” Rogan recounted.

The order expedites FDA reviews, establishes safe-use protocols, opens Right to Try pathways, boosts data sharing with the VA, and funds expanded studies—all focused on substances showing strong early results for treatment-resistant conditions.

Trump framed the urgency clearly during the signing: “Since 9/11, we’ve lost over 21x more veteran lives to suicide than on the battlefield… and today, we’re bringing them new hope.” He added that the policy would “ensure that people suffering from debilitating symptoms might finally have a chance to reclaim their lives and lead a happier life. They’ve been through so much.”

Rogan echoed the significance at the event: “For 56 years we’ve lived under those terrible conditions. We’re free of that now. Thanks to all these people… and thanks to President Trump.”

Ibogaine, in particular, has drawn attention from veterans’ groups and researchers. Preliminary data, including from Stanford studies on special operations vets, points to dramatic reductions in PTSD symptoms and opioid dependency after treatment—results that have driven desperate Americans to seek care abroad when blocked at home.

 

Stewart’s segment highlighted exactly that point: veterans who have exhausted conventional options now have a faster path to potentially life-changing therapies.

The timing couldn’t be more critical. Veterans continue to face sky-high suicide rates and addiction crises that standard treatments have failed to stem. By prioritizing evidence over ideology and results over inertia, the Trump administration is delivering where previous efforts stalled.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/22/2026 - 19:40

China's "National Team" Dumped ETFs In Q1 To Cool Overheating Market

For years, and especially after the local stock bubble burst in spectacular fashion a little over a decade ago, China's "National Team" - a polite euphemism for the country's Plunge Protection Team - could be relied upon to step in and provide a lending hand - or rather buying hand - to stabilize stocks in the nick of time. Well, it may be time to rename it to the Surge Protection Team

According to Bloomberg, China’s “national team” has stepped back from its dominant role in the country’s biggest stock ETFs, pointing to efforts to rein in an overheated rally earlier this year.

Central Huijin Investment Ltd - a core unit of China’s sovereign wealth fund that traditionally led a group of state-backed investors used to stabilize markets - cut its ownership in several key exchange‑traded funds to below the 20% disclosure threshold, according to first‑quarter filings. Its current stake is unclear and won't be reported until sometime in the summer. 

The disclosures, according to Bloomberg, offer the clearest confirmation yet that the national team cut a substantial portion of its ETF holdings in January, as turnover hit a record and the rally turned increasingly speculative, particularly in parts of the technology sector. They also indicate Beijing is no longer just propping up the market, but is willing to drain speculative excess — a break from past rescue playbooks.

Central Huijin and its asset management arm may have reduced their holdings by at least half in flagship products such as the 200 billion yuan ($29.3 billion) Huatai-PineBridge CSI 300 ETF. The two entities held 42.6% and 40% respectively as of the end of last year.

Even smaller funds such as the HuaAn SSE 180 ETF, previously 92% owned by the national team, reported no single shareholder above the 20% threshold, indicating the stakes were cut across the board. 

Quarterly ETF filings only require disclosure of investors with holdings of 20% or more, a threshold Central Huijin had consistently met until local stocks erupted higher in Q1.

While ownership levels can fluctuate as others trade, the sharp decline in total ETF units outstanding during the period suggests the market’s dominant buyer until recently played a decisive role in the outflows.

Remarkably, some of the National Team sales might have locked in gains of around 50%, based on the rise of the CSI 300 Index from early‑2024 lows, when the national team began aggressively buying ETFs to stem a market meltdown, through January this year, when the selling likely took place. The exact returns would depend on the specific ETFs and the timing of those purchases.

The scale of the stake reductions may become clearer with first-half filings due in the third quarter, when the identities and holdings of the top 10 investors are revealed.

Morgan Stanley estimates the national team sold about $80 billion of positions in January and February. Analysts including Laura Wang expect the money to be used for investing in longer-term, more “strategic and thematic” ETFs.

“The fact that they have relinquished this dominant position in ETFs implies that they have much more potential to create upside in the market going forward, sitting on cash, while their power to create downside is now diminished,” said Cheng Hao, fund manager at Zhejiang Feiluo Assets Management.

And now that the National Team is mostly in cash, local stocks can drop again and the government will be there to prop them up again. Rinse. Repeat. 

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/22/2026 - 19:15

Tesla Slides After Unexpectedly Raising 2026 CapEx Guidance To $25BN

Update: In our original review of the Tesla earnings, which were solid enough to push the stock over $400 ahead of the earnings call, we said that something about the CapEx seemed off, namely that at just $2.5 billion in Q1 (and the reason why free cash flow was positive), Tesla's run-rate was about half behind its $20 billion full year capex projection.

TSLA free cash flow positive since Q1 capex was only $2.5BN, half the run-rate it should be implied by the $20BN guidance https://t.co/DI30b9ksR4 pic.twitter.com/xTIOQgSwy6

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) April 22, 2026

The company confirmed as much, with the CFO saying on the call that it would see negative free cash flow for the rest of 2026. 

But what really trapdoored the stock was Musk starting off the call by saying that Tesla is going to be “substantially increasing” their investments in the future and to expect to see significant increase in capital expenditures. How significant? Well, Tesla now see CapEx at a whopping $25 billion in 2026, a $5 billion increase from the previous guidance. How did Elon Musk justify this? Because, as Bloomberg's conference call readalong said, "Musk framed the warning that Tesla will ramp up CapEx in the context of (and yes I am paraphrasing) but: "
"everyone else did."

If that wasn't enough, Tesla also said it would significantly increase vehicle production, which in light of the company's surging car inventory and still rather tepid demand (unless of course gas goes to $5), could be a problem. And just to keep folks guessing about where even more cash burn could come from, Musk concludes saying that “Tesla is working on a lot of large, ambitious projects."

To be sure, TSLA is not the first company to be punished for raising Capex: both Meta and Microsoft tumbled last quarter after aggressive capex boosts, but at least they had comfortable positive free cash flow. Tesla does not, and suddenly the market is on edge.

As Karobaar Capital’s Haris Khurshid said on TSLA's postmarket stock reversal: “Higher capex pushes the payoff further out, which the market tends to push back on in the short term. The print pulls [the stock] up, then the call brings it back once the timeline comes into focus. Investors like the story but then keep resetting when they realize how much still needs to be delivered.”

So yeah: while Tesla hit all the right notes with its earnings report, the call was a mess, because as Bloomberg's Kit Carlson writes, "spending has been a huge concern for many investors and analysts, even ahead of this new increase" and sure enough, TSLA stock tumbled after hours, sliding from a session high of $406 to $377 before stabilizing around $383, erasing all after hours gains and then some.

* * *

Earlier:

Heading into today's TSLA earnings, Wall Street was braced for a miss, with debate only around how big it would be. Well, it wouldn't be an Elon Musk joint if there wasn't some big twist, and sure enough, the stocks is soaring after hour on what can only be described as a very big, and very unexpected beat.

Here is what the company reported for the first quarter:

• Rev. $22.39B, beating Est. $22.19B
• Adj EPS 41c, beating Est. 34c, the second straight quarter Tesla’s earnings beat expectations.
  • EPS 13c vs. 12c Y/Y
• Gross Margin 21.1%, beating Est. 17.7%
• Auto Gross Margin Ex-Reg Credit 19.2% vs 12.5% Y/Y
• Free Cash Flow positive $1.44B, beating est. Negative $1.86B

Perhaps the most interesting of the above, besides the modest beats in revenue (which benefited from positive FX impact of about $900 million in the quarter translating into $200 million at the bottom line; as well as higher average selling prices) and EPS, is that despite weak EV and energy unit sales, Tesla’s reported gross margins in both businesses are up. Generally, fixed costs spread over fewer units puts pressure on GPM, all else equal. The auto margin, less credits, of 19.2% is up q-o-q and y-o-y. In energy, despite lower revenue both sequentially and versus last year, Tesla reports what looks like a record gross margin for that business of almost 40%.

Yet while Tesla turned in higher auto gross margins than expected, given weak sales, that fades away when reading down the P&L: operating margin of just 4.2%. 

Meanwhile, earnings continue to subsist heavily on a diet of regulatory credit sales, which in Q1 dropped to 381 million from $337 million a year ago, and net interest income.

And visually:

Here is the qualitative YoY comparison:

Starting at the top, it's no surprise that that TSLA likes soaring gas prices, which have helped a "rebound in demand" in the core US market, to wit:  “We saw continued growth in demand for our vehicles in markets in APAC and South America, while also seeing a rebound of demand in both EMEA and North America.”

The surprisingly optimistic comments come several weeks after the automaker reported one of its worst quarters of auto sales in years. 

Here is how TSLA laid out its automotive business" We are focused on optimizing our vehicle product portfolio, with an emphasis on vehicles designed for a fully autonomous future. We continued the launch of Model 3 and Model Y trims globally, including the roll-out of the Model YL in markets outside of China and more affordable trims of both models. We also began deliveries of Cybertruck in the UAE."

Unlike recent quarters, we didn’t have an “other updates” section with a surprise investment, there’s minimal change in language and if anything it projects a lot of confidence in core business. In short, a "no surprises, no drama" print.

One key metric that is also key to Elon Musk’s pay package, is active FSD subscriptions. They were up slightly this quarter to 1.28 million from 1.1 million at the end of 4Q, and up a whoppint 51% YoY.

There were some working capital issues: global inventory spiked to 27 days, up from 15 days, which was to be expected given that Tesla produced more than 50,000 cars than it delivered in 4Q, but still that’s a lot of inventory to clear.

And speaking of inventory, Tesla has overcapacity in its factories, so now the company is rolling out the Model YL (Long) in “markets outside of China” and more affordable trims of both models. It also began deliveries of cybertruck in the UAE.

While energy storage had been Tesla’s fastest-growing sector but that trend failed to continue into the first quarter, when year-over-year revenue slipped 12% and quarterly deployments of 8.8 gigawatt-hours were the lowest in a year. This is what it had to say about the business:

"Progress continued at the new Megafactory outside Houston, which will produce the Megapack 3 for Megablock. Start of production is on track for later this year. We began meaningful customer deployments of Tesla’s first in-house designed solar panel produced at Gigafactory New York. The new panel has 18 individual power zones – 3x more than a conventional residential panel – enabling it to reliably produce more energy in shady conditions. Other innovations include improved aesthetics and faster and simpler installation." 

Turning to the far more important robotics business, the company expects the first large-scale Optimus factory to start in Q2. The first generation line, designed for 1 million robots a year, will replace the Model S and Model X lines in Fremont. The company is also preparing Gigafactory Texas for the second-generation line, which is being designed for long-term annual production capacity of 10 million robots.

Turning to AI, Tesla said that "Cortex 2 is now online and has started running training workloads." Tesla continues to ramp its onsite training infrastructure to ensure sufficient compute resources for the development of our AI products and services and "are also continuing our custom silicon development with Dojo 3 in an effort to reduce the cost of training over time."

In the battery business, "ramp has begun across our new battery and material factories, including LFP cells in Nevada, cathode material and lithium refining in Texas." Battery pack capacity continues to be the limiting factor on ramping our vehicle production the company said.

What is the company's other supporting infrastructure? This is what it had to say: "Gigafactory New York is now producing V4 Supercharging cabinets, which boast 3x the power density and 2x the number of stalls per cabinet compared to V3. Alongside the ramp of Tesla Semi, we are deploying public Megachargers, including our first one in Southern California. While we aim to leverage as much of our existing investments as possible, we continue to build out our supporting infrastructure for our vehicle and mobility businesses, including Robotaxi expansion, across established and growth markets around the world. In Q1, we added over 2,200 net new Supercharging stalls, growing the network 19% year-over-year. This year we look to increase our presence in Japan by doubling our service centers and expanding our Supercharger coverage in the world's third largest vehicle market"

The company's outlook was generally very favorable:

• Volume: "We are focused on maximum capacity utilization at our factories. Deliveries and deployments will be impacted by aggregate demand for our products, supply chain readiness and allocation decisions between sale to customers or use for our owned and operated fleet."
• Cash: "We will manage the businesses such that we ensure a strong balance sheet, maintaining sufficient liquidity to fund our product roadmap, long-term capacity expansion plans – including further vertical integration – and other expenses."
• Profit: "While we continue to execute on innovations to reduce the cost of manufacturing and operations, over time, we expect our hardwarerelated profits to be accompanied by an acceleration of AI, software and fleet-based profits."
• Product: "We continue to evolve and augment our product lineup with a focus on cost, scale and future monetization opportunities via services powered by our AI software. We remain focused on growing our sales volumes through a differentiated and efficiently managed product portfolio, which includes leveraging and optimizing our existing production capacity before building new factories and production lines. Cybercab, Tesla Semi and Megapack 3 are on schedule for volume production starting in 2026. First-generation production lines for Optimus are being installed in anticipation of volume production. Capacity build out and ramp related to our multi-year infrastructure initiatives, including AI compute, solar, battery material and semiconductor manufacturing are underway."

There was yet another sign of convergence between Elon Musk’s companies: 

“Our partnership with SpaceX aims to build the largest chip fab ever: vertically integrating logic, memory and advanced packaging to allow for rapid iteration as we anticipate greater chip demand than what existing and planned industry capacity can accommodate. This begins with the Tesla-owned Research Fab on our Gigafactory Texas campus.”

As for Terafab, we already knew that this mega project would start with a pilot line. But what’s interesting is this is Tesla’s and not a part of the joint-venture with SpaceX/xAI. Here’s what the deck says:

“This begins with the Tesla-owned Research Fab on our Gigafactory Texas campus.”

Last but not least, TSLA surprised the market by reporting a positive free cash flow...

... but Tesla pulled a number of levers:

• Stock-based comp nearly 2x, year-over-year
• Big swing in accounts payable and receivables add ~$1.9B, offsetting much of the big inventory headwind
• Most of all, capex at just $2.5B, or only about half the run-rate implied by guidance

Also don't expect free cash flow to remain positive: Tesla is working to ramp up production as part of a more than $20 billion spending plan this year. For the first three months of the year, however, Tesla spent less than $2.5 billion, half the outlay the company will need to average per quarter to reach its expenditure forecast for the year. This contributed to Tesla posting $1.4 billion in positive free cash flow for the quarter, far better than analysts’ expectation that the carmaker would burn through almost $1.9 billion.

Looking ahead the company is excited "about Tesla’s positioning in 2026 with tailwinds persisting for the autos business, our continued progress on FSD (Supervised), the ramp of Robotaxi, progress on Optimus ahead of mass production and the growth of our energy production capacity"

Amusingly, TSLA's outlook slide didn't have a single number in it.

Judging by the stock reaction, the market is also excited, and as Interactive Brokers Chief Strategist Steve Sosnick writes, this print is “good enough.” He highlighted the adjusted profit and revenue beats as well as the “surprise” positive flip to free cash flow. “The car business improved, and there is nothing that disrupts the futurism that juices Tesla’s valuation. Now it’s up to what Musk says on the call”

Others, like Adam Sarhan, of 50 Park Investments, were also happy: "The real story isn’t just these numbers — it’s the execution on the roadmap. The trajectory feels constructive. Longer term, I’m still very bullish on Tesla’s positioning in AI, robotics, and energy. These results show resilience and set up better comps ahead. The market will digest the forward commentary tonight, but the fundamentals are pointing up."

That said, the initial euphoric reaction may moderate if analysts interrogate this idea of rebounding demand on the earnings call, given that Tesla has loads of cars in inventory right now. 

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/22/2026 - 19:00

Voting Rights Groups Sue To Stop DOJ From Collecting State Voter Lists

Authored by Aldgra Fredly via The Epoch Times,

Voting rights groups filed a lawsuit on April 21 seeking to block the Department of Justice (DOJ) from collecting, compiling, and analyzing state voter registration lists.

As of April 1, the DOJ has sued 30 states, including Washington, for failing to turn over voter rolls. The department has said the U.S. attorney general has congressional authority under the Civil Rights Act of 1960 to seek election records from states to check for improper voter registrations.

The groups filed a complaint on April 21, accusing the DOJ of seeking to use the sensitive data to build what they described as a “sprawling new voter surveillance and purging apparatus” without congressional authorization.

The complaint alleges that the department attempted to usurp states’ authority to oversee election administration and impose its own “secretive ’verification procedures’” to identify ineligible voters.

“Never before has a federal agency centralized this volume of Americans’ voting data in a single system of records,” it stated.

“And in doing so, DOJ has flouted statutory safeguards designed to ensure transparency and public participation in the federal government’s collection of Americans’ personal information.”

The lawsuit was filed in the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia by advocacy group Common Cause and four individual members of Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington.

The data requested by the DOJ includes voters’ Social Security numbers, driver’s license numbers, dates of birth, home addresses, political party affiliations, and voter participation history, according to the filing.

The groups are seeking a court order requiring the DOJ to delete any voter rolls it has obtained from states and to bar the department from compiling or disclosing voter data.

Harmeet K. Dhillon, assistant attorney general of the DOJ’s Civil Rights Division, said on April 1 that the department has a duty to ensure state compliance with election laws.

Assistant Attorney General for Civil Rights Harmeet Dhillon speaks during a news conference at the Justice Department in Washington on Sept. 29, 2025. Andrew Harnik/Getty Images

“The Justice Department will continue to fulfill its oversight role dutifully, neutrally, and transparently wherever Americans vote in federal elections,” Dhillon said in a statement

“Many state election officials, however, are choosing to fight us in court rather than show their work. We will continue to verify that all States are carrying out critical election integrity legal duties.”

Dhillon added that the Civil Rights Act allows the attorney general to “demand the production, inspection, and analysis of statewide voter registration lists that can be cross-checked effectively.”

In an April 21 statement, Common Cause CEO Virginia Kase Solomon said the DOJ’s efforts to collect voter rolls amount to “a blatant, partisan power grab.”

“By attempting to interrogate and exploit voter data for political purposes, President Trump’s DOJ isn’t just threatening the privacy of every American—they are building a system designed to imprison the ballot box and silence millions of eligible voters,” Solomon said.

The Epoch Times has reached out to the DOJ for comment, but did not receive a response by publication time.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/22/2026 - 18:50

Not So Fast: Virginia Judge Blocks Redistricting Referendum

Update (1835ET): A Virginia judge ruled on Wednesday that the state’s redistricting referendum approved by voters a day earlier was invalid, nullifying the election results.

"Virginia voters have spoken, and an activist judge should not have veto power over the People’s vote," said Virginia Attorney General Jay Jones, adding that the state would appeal. 

As American Greatness notes further, Tazewell County Judge Jack Hurley Jr. ruled that the referendum was likely unconstitutional as it violated procedural requirements in the Virginia Constitution, including the timing of the vote and the failure to publish the amendment three months before the prior general election.

The Tazewell Circuit Court also ruled the ballot language was misleading, specifically the phrase “restore fairness,” which Hurley determined could improperly influence voters by implying opposition is unfair.

The constitutional amendment was framed on the ballot as a vote “to restore fairness in the upcoming elections.”  It narrowly passed Tuesday night by a margin of 51.5 percent to 48.5 percent.

In his written ruling, Hurley said the plaintiffs had an “extraordinarily high likelihood of success on the merits.”

The contested measure would allow Democrats to re-draw the state’s congressional maps from a 6-to-5 advantage to 10-to-1 majority, disenfranchising potentially millions of Republican voters ahead of the 2026 midterms.

The temporary restraining order was requested by the Republican National Committee, the National Republican Congressional Committee, and U.S. Reps. Ben Cline (R-Botetourt County) and Morgan Griffith (R-Salem).

In the emergency motion, the plaintiffs asked the court to issue a temporary restraining order and preliminary injunction against Virginia’s commissioner of elections, members of the State Board of Elections and several Tazewell County election officials. They contend the court should intervene immediately to “preserve the status quo” and prevent what they describe as “irreparable harm” before a hearing can be held.

“The Democrats’ unfair redistricting scheme is illegal. We are grateful that the court has agreed and swiftly applied justice to stop this unconstitutional power grab that would disenfranchise millions of Virginia voters by reassigning them members of Congress from other parts of the state,” said Cline. “This ruling is an important victory in our fight to make sure that politicians don’t get to select their own voters.”

Hurley’s ruling declares that any and all votes for or against the proposed constitutional amendment in the April 21, 2026 special election are ineffective and enjoins Defendants and their successors from certifying the results of the election.

Additional legal challenges argue the amendment violates the single-subject rule and was improperly advanced during a special legislative session. Although the Virginia Supreme Court allowed the referendum to proceed while reviewing the case, if it upholds the lower court’s findings, the referendum results could be invalidated.

President Donald Trump weighed in on Truth Social Wednesday morning, claiming the referendum itself was “rigged.” In his post, Trump wrote:

“A RIGGED ELECTION TOOK PLACE LAST NIGHT IN THE GREAT COMMONWEALTH OF VIRGINIA! All day long Republicans were winning, the Spirit was unbelievable, until the very end when, of course, there was a massive ‘Mail In Ballot Drop!’ Where have I heard that before — And the Democrats eked out another Crooked Victory! Six to five goes to ten to one, and yet the Presidential Election in November was very close to a 50-50 split. … Let’s see if the Courts will fix this travesty of ‘Justice.’”

Trump’s comments focused on the overnight counting of mail-in and absentee ballots — which flipped the initially reported lead — echoing his past criticisms of election procedures. The referendum was extremely close (roughly 51.4% Yes / 48.6% No), and in Virginia it is standard for in-person votes to be tallied first on election night while mail ballots are counted later.

Virginia’s Republican-hating Attorney General Jay Jones (D) has already vowed to appeal the ruling.

“My office will immediately appeal the ruling issued by the Tazewell County Circuit Court,” Jones said. “These arguments are already before the Supreme Court of Virginia, the proper forum to consider the arguments, which has set a schedule for receiving arguments and has justifiably allowed the vote to proceed during this time.”

Virginia Senate Minority Leader Ryan McDougle (R-Hanover) and House Minority Leader Terry Kilgore (R-Scott) issued a joint statement saying the ruling was “a necessary step to protect Virginia voters from an illegal and rushed” redistricting referendum.

“The Constitution sets clear rules for how amendments must be advanced. Those rules were not properly followed. Plain and simple. Virginians deserve transparency, fairness, and adherence to the law — not backroom deals,” they said.

Former Virginia Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli predicted on the Scott Jennings Show, Wednesday that the Virginia redistricting measure won’t survive the legal challenges.

“Here’s my prediction,” Cuccinelli posted on X. “The referendum gets tossed out in May.”

Now they care about activist judges! 

We are having quite the night in the courts. A Virginia judge just blocked the state from certifying the results of Tuesday's congressional map referendum as unlawful. Judge Jack Hurley Jr., ruled that Democrats did not follow the correct procedure for a constitutional…

— Jonathan Turley (@JonathanTurley) April 22, 2026

* * *

Democrats’ decisive win in Virginia Tuesday night has dealt a significant blow to Republican hopes of retaining control of the House.

By persuading voters to dismantle the state's independent redistricting commission - created just six years ago - Democrats wiped out four Republican-held congressional districts. This means Virginia's House delegation is now on track to shift to a 10-to-1 Democratic advantage, a dramatic reversal for a state that remained firmly in GOP hands not long ago.

That said, Democrats dropped $65 million on the races (though the final tally was uncomfortably close), while Punchbowl reports that Republicans are trading blame internally - second-guessing whether they let a chance slip away to blunt the Democratic surge.

And with midterms right around the corner, there are few indications that President Trump or House Republican leadership possesses either the strategic focus or message discipline needed to protect their narrow majority. Fresh off Trump's 2024 presidential win, Republicans, led by Speaker Mike Johnson, clung to control by the slimmest of margins. Pulling off a repeat performance now looks considerably tougher.

Betting markets are already pricing in a Democratic win in the House.

//--> //--> Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Yes 85% · No 16%
View full market & trade on Polymarket

While party leaders insist a third Trump impeachment is off the table, the shift would almost certainly unleash a barrage of investigations and subpoenas aimed at the White House and Cabinet agencies - with major legal and political ripple effects. Lawmakers could also face even more protracted government shutdowns than the record-length appropriations lapses seen in the current Congress.

"I told Mike Johnson in July of last year that, 'If you go down this road, it's not going to work out for you,'" Jeffries told Punchbowl Tuesday night.

He added: "And at the end of the day, his best-case scenario was that he would net zero seats, but force at least 10 Republicans, who are incumbent members of his conference, into premature retirement. And that is exactly what has happened."

Jeffries earned significant credit for orchestrating Tuesday's outcome - as Virginia Democrats first had to steer the ballot measure through the state legislature twice, beat back multiple court challenges, and then win over voters. A nonprofit aligned with Jeffries poured $38 million into the effort to secure passage, and he personally managed the operation from beginning to end - designing the referendum strategy, recruiting staff and directing on-the-ground coordination. Many Virginia Democrats initially resisted the high-stakes gamble, requiring Jeffries to personally persuade both the state delegation and the warring legislative chambers to fall in line.

True to form, Jeffries remained measured when asked whether Tuesday's result clinched the majority or signaled an impending blue wave. He did, however, declare victory in the broader redistricting battle.

"When you line up the congressional map in Texas and compare it with the response in California, they're going to lose seats and would be fortunate if in Texas, they win two or three of the five seats that they claimed they were going to steal from Democrats," Jeffries said.

The biggest wild cards left for both sides are Florida and the future of the Voting Rights Act, which is up to the Supreme Court. Tuesday's result intensifies pressure on Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis to advance an ambitious congressional map next week capable of delivering Republicans a net gain of three to five seats. Yet DeSantis is encountering pushback from the state's Republican congressional delegation and the GOP-controlled legislature, many of whom doubt such an aggressive redraw is feasible. Several Florida Republicans caution that Latino voters are not reliably in the GOP column and may not show up for the party the way they did in 2024, urging caution.

Spending in Virginia was wildly lopsided. Democrats poured $56.4 million into television and digital ads; Republicans mustered just $24.6 million. Republicans still lost by fewer than 90,000 votes out of more than 3 million cast.

According to the report, GOP strategists insist they deliberately avoided nationalizing the contest to keep from energizing the Democratic base. They argue that heavier spending would simply have provoked an even larger Democratic response. They also note that the "No" side outperformed Trump's 2024 numbers in the state. Former Virginia Attorney General Jason Miyares and onetime House Majority Leader Eric Cantor, who helmed the opposition effort, pledged to keep fighting the new map in court.

House Republicans, however, were already firing off frantic messages Tuesday night. Several told reporters they had been assured that additional money would make no difference in Virginia - yet the narrow margin suggests otherwise. 

The American Action Network, a nonprofit close to Johnson, quietly funneled money to the group bankrolling the "No" campaign, according to a person familiar with the transaction. Meanwhile, only one solidly Republican seat remains, in the state's southwest corner. GOP Reps. Ben Cline and Morgan Griffith may find themselves forced into a member-versus-member primary.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/22/2026 - 18:35