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Zero Rss

ICE Planning New Detention Facilities For 5,500+ Detainees In Four US Cities

Zero Rss
1 month 4 weeks ago
ICE Planning New Detention Facilities For 5,500+ Detainees In Four US Cities

Authored by Bryan Hyde via American Greatness,

U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) is currently moving to open four new major detention facilities across the United States with a combined capacity to hold 5,500 detainees.

Just the News reports that ICE has sent out a request for information seeking contractors who could operate detention facilities near Denver, Miami and Seattle, and central Pennsylvania.

The request calls for 1,500 beds near Denver, 1,500 near Seattle, 700 near Miami, and 1,800 in Pennsylvania.

Trump administration plans four new ICE detention centers to expand capacityhttps://t.co/r1s5D1iYjT pic.twitter.com/u5wMR9S76z

— RSBN 🇺🇸 (@RSBNetwork) July 30, 2026

According to federal solicitation documents, ICE wants turn-key existing facilities that would be ready to begin housing detainees within 30 days after a contract is awarded.

Each facility is required to be reserved exclusively for ICE detainees.

Solicitation documents indicate a massive shift toward centralizing legal proceedings directly inside the walls of these new facilities with each of the four facilities to include five immigration courtrooms and dedicated judges’ chambers.

Every site is also expected to feature at least 20 offices for ICE attorneys, allowing deportations and hearings to process rapidly without requiring the transit of detainees to outside federal buildings.

NBC News reports the solicitations require each facility to be operational within 30 days of a contract award, indicating the sites are expected to be largely staffed and equipped before opening.

A major point of contention that has surfaced is that ICE has published draft contract terms declaring that state and local laws “shall not apply” to these new facilities, according to Wired.

The legal maneuver is designed to shield the private prison operators from health, safety, and labor inspections mandated by individual states, coming on the heels of a massive legal battle over state oversight in Washington.

The push is part of the Trump administration’s broader immigration enforcement strategy, aiming to boost total agency bed capacity to 92,600 by November 2026.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/31/2026 - 15:40
Tyler Durden

Five States Make The Cut For $50 Billion Nuclear Campuses 

Zero Rss
1 month 4 weeks ago
Five States Make The Cut For $50 Billion Nuclear Campuses 

The Department of Energy has selected Utah, Tennessee, Oklahoma, Louisiana, and Idaho as the first five potential hosts for Nuclear Lifecycle Innovation Campuses (NLICs), advancing an effort that forced states to decide whether they support the entire nuclear industry or merely the convenient parts.

Energy Secretary Chris Wright signed Memorandums of Understanding with the five states after the DOE reviewed 28 applications from 26 states. The agreements allow the federal government and the states to continue exploring potential campuses. 

The potential prize is substantial, with NLICs potentially attracting up to $50 billion in capital investment, generating almost $10 billion in state and local tax revenue and creating 25,000 jobs each.

These would not simply be reactor parks. The campuses are intended to accommodate multiple parts of the nuclear fuel cycle, including uranium enrichment, fuel fabrication, reprocessing or recycling of used nuclear fuel, and the final disposition of material that cannot be reused. 

Depending on the state and location, a campus could also include advanced reactors, power generation, manufacturing facilities, and co-located data centers.

The DOE is offering states the opportunity to build entire nuclear industrial ecosystems, rather than collecting federal reactor grants while expecting somebody else to deal with the fuel afterward.

That distinction may explain why some supposedly pro-nuclear states are conspicuously absent from the first shortlist.

Texas has spent years presenting itself as the future capital of advanced nuclear power. In 2025, the state established the Texas Advanced Nuclear Energy Office and appropriated $350 million for reactor development, construction reimbursement, and supply-chain projects. State officials called it the largest state investment of its kind in the country.

Yet when Orano USA and Waste Control Specialists proposed a consolidated interim storage facility for used nuclear fuel in Andrews County, the state's enthusiasm for nuclear technology suddenly became rather selective.

Gov. Greg Abbott urged the Nuclear Regulatory Commission to reject it, calling the location unsuitable and warning that the facility could threaten the Permian Basin. Texas legislators subsequently passed a law opposing high-level waste storage, and the state fought the NRC license all the way to the Supreme Court.

Apparently, nuclear reactors are an economic-development opportunity, while the fuel that actually ran through them is somebody else's problem.

New Mexico produced an even clearer example.

The state has supported nuclear technology when it generates investment and high-paying jobs. It committed $3 million in economic-development funding and another $1.8 million in workforce assistance for Kairos Power's expansion in Albuquerque, where the company is developing molten-salt coolant and fuel-manufacturing technology for advanced reactors.

But New Mexico's reception was considerably less cheerful when Holtec International proposed its HI-STORE consolidated interim storage facility in Lea County.

The NRC licensed the multibillion-dollar project in 2023, but New Mexico's governor and legislature fought it through legislation, permit threats, and litigation. Even after a favorable Supreme Court decision revived the federal licensing pathway, Holtec abandoned the project, describing the path forward in New Mexico as “untenable” and saying it would look toward states that were more amenable.

That history likely did not make New Mexico an especially convincing candidate for a federal program explicitly centered on the entire nuclear lifecycle.

As we have previously detailed, used nuclear fuel has been stored safely in pools and dry casks for decades. The United States has accumulated roughly 95,000 metric tons of it, much of which remains stranded at operating and decommissioned reactor sites because anti-nuclear activists have spent decades treating every proposed storage location like the opening scene of a disaster movie.

The NLIC program offers a different bargain. States willing to accept the responsibilities of the complete fuel cycle stand to enjoy tens of billions of dollars in investments and thousands of high-paying jobs for their constituents.

Texas and New Mexico may enjoy calling themselves pro-nuclear when reactors, research grants, and factory announcements are on the table. But supporting nuclear energy also requires dealing responsibly with what comes out of the reactor.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/31/2026 - 15:20
Tyler Durden

FCC Chair Carr Defends License Review As ABC Cries Censorship

Zero Rss
1 month 4 weeks ago
FCC Chair Carr Defends License Review As ABC Cries Censorship

Via American Greatness,

Federal Communications Commission Chair Brendan Carr is pushing back against Disney-owned ABC’s claims that his agency is engaged in “attempted censorship,” insisting the review of the network’s broadcast licenses stems from evidence of discriminatory hiring practices, not politics.

ABC leveled the censorship accusation in a 119-page regulatory filing posted Thursday, arguing the FCC’s scrutiny of its eight television licenses sends a chilling message to media companies nationwide. “The retaliation against ABC is a signal to every media company in the country: accommodate the Administration’s view of what news coverage should look like or pay the price,” the network’s lawyers wrote.

Carr has flatly denied that characterization. “I don’t view the FCC as the speech police,” he told Politico this week for an episode of the podcast “The Conversation.” The chairman has said the license review grew out of an ongoing investigation into ABC’s diversity, equity and inclusion policies, not a reaction to the network’s news coverage.

In the interview, Carr detailed the substance of that concern.

“The Disney case is about evidence coming to light, we haven’t made a final decision yet, that they had been discriminating inside the company based on race and gender, in terms of hiring, promoting, compensation, workplace opportunities,” he said.

“If that all ends up being true, based on all the evidence that Disney gets to put in, that’s a very concerning development, and it does raise fundamental questions about fitness to have a license.”

An FCC spokesperson echoed that stance, saying broadcasters must serve the public interest rather than “the narrow or partisan interests of a political party” and are barred from discriminatory practices, hoaxes and news distortion. “The FCC is going to hold broadcasters accountable to the full extent of the law, regardless of any disinformation campaign that some of them may choose to run,” the spokesperson said.

ABC’s filing leaned heavily on outside voices, citing more than 153,000 public comments and warnings from figures including Supreme Court Justice Neil Gorsuch and Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, about regulatory overreach. Some conservatives and free-market advocates have separately raised concerns about handing an appointed federal agency sweeping authority over news content, regardless of which party controls the White House.

Not all conservatives are sympathetic to ABC’s position.

The Center for American Rights, which petitioned the FCC to deny the licenses, called Thursday for the case to proceed to an administrative hearing.

“Disney’s lawyers can wish upon a star, but they cannot make this record disappear,” said Daniel Suhr, the group’s president.

The dispute traces back to April, when Carr called up all eight Disney-owned stations for an early license review, and intensified this month after President Donald Trump publicly urged the FCC to strip both ABC and NBC of their licenses over their handling of a presidential address. ABC has hired prominent litigators, including former Solicitor General Paul Clement, to fight the review.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/31/2026 - 15:00
Tyler Durden

Chips To Ships: Nvidia Plans New Shipbuilding Investment With Kawasaki

Zero Rss
1 month 4 weeks ago
Chips To Ships: Nvidia Plans New Shipbuilding Investment With Kawasaki

Authored by Stuart Chirls via FreightWaves.com,

Can the world’s newest technology give a boost to one of transportation’s oldest? A plan by leading Asia companies wants to find out.

Nvidia and Kawasaki Heavy Industries announced a joint effort to build a “next‑generation digital shipyard” at Kawasaki’s Sakaide Works in Japan. 

The core of the deal is co‑development of AI‑powered robots for shipbuilding tasks such as welding, painting, inspection, and material handling.

Kawasaki (OTC: KWHIY) will contribute decades of shipbuilding data, production know‑how, and its own robotics capabilities.

Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) will contribute its AI and simulation stack, including products for applications in digital twins, robotics, vision/AI, and edge AI, which applies AI models and algorithms directly to devices such as sensors, cameras, robots, vehicles, or industrial controllers.

One report notes Nvidia making a $5 million investment connected to this 1990s‑era Kawasaki shipbuilding business as part of the arrangement, though the main value is technology integration rather than large equity stakes in shipyards.

The outcome could be a precursor to wider adoption in shipbuilding: A plan by the United States to revitalize its shipyards has been dogged by persistent questions of workforce availability.  

Nvidia is already invested in an array of autonomous truck technology.

The AI applications include digital twins of hulls, production lines, and workflows will simulate and optimize before cutting steel, and  AI‑guided robots that can adapt to complex, low‑volume, highly customized shipbuilding tasks. Skills transfer and training via simulation is expected to help address labor shortages and the loss of experienced workers.

Analysts say a scalable AI model could improve lead times and cost curves for newbuilds, particularly in Japan and other yards that license production. Quality and rework rates could be improved, which influence delivery reliability and charterer risk.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/31/2026 - 14:20
Tyler Durden

US Treasury Informed Banks It May Intervene In Japan's Yen, As Market Laughs At BOJ's Own Attempts To Prop Up Currency

Zero Rss
1 month 4 weeks ago
US Treasury Informed Banks It May Intervene In Japan's Yen, As Market Laughs At BOJ's Own Attempts To Prop Up Currency

While the BOJ understandably refuses to admit it spent a record $140BN (across all markets, $90BN on EBS) to briefly manipulate the Japanese yen higher...

... ahead of yet another disappointing (non-rate hike) decision (according to some calculations, Japan's central bank is about 100 bps of rate hikes behind to stop the ongoing collapse of the yen), others are less shy. 

According to Reuters, similar to the last failed intervention by Japan and citing "a source familiar with the matter", the US Treasury informed a number of ‌banks that it may intervene in the Japanese yen market on Friday and that they should "stand ready for future action."

The notice to banks, channeled through the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, comes a day after Japanese authorities stepped in to prop up the yen, setting ​the currency up for its biggest weekly rise since February, pulling it off of four-decade lows against the dollar (although the yen has since erased much of its gains). 

News of ​the potential intervention by the U.S. Treasury helped push the yen higher against the dollar on Friday. It last traded at ⁠159.22 to the dollar after trading as low 163.65 on Thursday. As shown below, the past 48 hours have seen no less than 5 distinct intervention attempts by the BOJ and/or the US Treasury to push the yen higher. 

The method of potential Treasury intervention was not immediately clear. The Federal Reserve has ​maintained a dollar liquidity swap line with the Bank of Japan and four other major central banks since 2013.

Japan's top currency diplomat ​Atsushi Mimura in Tokyo Friday declined to comment on intervention but hinted at U.S. involvement in the effort to stem the yen's decline, including so-called "rate checks" -- requests to dealers for indicative dollar/yen quotes that are considered a precursor to interventions.

Mimura added that the U.S. support "goes beyond psychological support."

The Reuters report of Treasury's ​notice to banks of potential intervention "fits in with the view in the market that the New York Fed has been carrying rate checks, ​so it's adding to the nervousness of market participants that there could be further intervention," said Lee Hardman, currency strategist at MUFG in London. "It definitely helps ‌support the ⁠idea that there is intervention risk on the table."

US Treasury Secretary Bessent said in a post on  X that the Treasury maintains "a strong relationship and close coordination" with Japanese authorities, but did not confirm the intervention preparations.

He said he looked forward to meeting with Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda at the U.S.-hosted G20 finance ministers and central bank governors meeting in Asheville, North Carolina, at the end ​of August.

"Japan's economy continues to perform ​well under Prime Minister Takaichi, ⁠Governor Ueda and the Bank of Japan Board, which has demonstrated a strong commitment to monetary and financial stability,"

On Thursday, Bessent told Fox Business Network that the yen "seems very undervalued to ​me" and that Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi was enacting "strong policies" that would help Japan's economic fundamentals. Bessent ​added that "we think excess ⁠volatility in the yen isn't healthy" and that the yen has "substantially overshot what would be called an equilibrium price."

The last time that the US Treasury intervened directly to prop up Japan's yen was in 2011 as part of a coordinated action by G7 countries to stabilize the currency following the devastating ⁠earthquake and ​tsunami rocked Japan. 

The Treasury last fall intervened to prop up Argentina's peso market ​ahead of parliamentary elections and provided President Javier Milei's government with a $20 billion currency swap line to help stabilize the currency and Argentina's dollar bonds. The aid to Argentina relied ​partly on the Exchange Stabilization Fund, which had total assets of about $217 billion as of June 30.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/31/2026 - 14:00
Tyler Durden

Italy Suspends Schengen Travel Agreement With Spain After Horrifying Ceuta Invasion

Zero Rss
1 month 4 weeks ago
Italy Suspends Schengen Travel Agreement With Spain After Horrifying Ceuta Invasion

Summary:

  • Italy Suspends Schengen Agreement With Spain Over Ceuta Invasion
  • Europe's Right-Wing Blasts Spanish Socialists For Border Failure
  • Riots erupted in Ceuta as Illegals Clashed with Security Forces
  • Mass Migration Invasion Of Military-Aged Males From Morocco Invades Spanish Enclave 
  • "Looks Like World War Z!": Spain's Ceuta Invaded By Thousands Of Military-Aged Male Illegals
Italy Suspends Schengen Agreement With Spain Over Ceuta Invasion 

After Italy's government and top French conservative politicians demanded the suspension of Schengen arrangements with Spain following the invasion of 50,000 military-aged illegal aliens in the Spanish enclave of Ceuta, Euronews reporter Gabriele Barbati reported that Italy's Interior Ministry had suspended Schengen free-movement rules with Spain and ordered the closure of air and maritime borders between the two countries, citing national security concerns.

GB News reports:

🚨 BREAKING: Italy has suspended the Schengen agreement with Spain after 60,000 migrants broke into Spanish territory. The Italian Ministry of the Interior has ordered the closure of the sea and air borders with Spain.

🇬🇧 Become a Friend of GB News: https://t.co/RxzT9yFXwS pic.twitter.com/0Opt8idvBP

— GB News (@GBNEWS) July 31, 2026

The measure was announced by Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and Deputy Prime Ministers Antonio Tajani and Matteo Salvini, and was formally approved earlier today after an Interior Ministry review of migration and border-security risks.

Meloni writes on X:

The Government has decided to temporarily suspend the free movement regime provided for by Schengen in maritime and air connections with Spain, reintroducing border controls. This is an extraordinary measure, adopted to safeguard national security and prevent possible repercussions for our Nation. The measure will be kept in force only for the time necessary, with particular attention to limiting any impact on summer tourist flows. In parallel, Italy is ready to support every European initiative to assist Spanish institutions as needed to restore full control of the Union's external borders and to address the ongoing situation with determination. Defending borders means defending the safety of citizens, combating irregular immigration, and striking at the criminal networks that traffic human beings.

Il Governo ha deciso di sospendere temporaneamente il regime di libera circolazione previsto da Schengen nei collegamenti marittimi e aerei con la Spagna, reintroducendo i controlli di frontiera.

Si tratta di una misura straordinaria, adottata per tutelare la sicurezza nazionale… pic.twitter.com/bpszoG8soX

— Giorgia Meloni (@GiorgiaMeloni) July 31, 2026

Tajani writes on X: 

The temporary suspension of #Schengen with Spain is a necessary choice to safeguard the security of our citizens and defend the European borders. A measure provided for by the treaties and made unavoidable today. The migrant crisis in #Ceuta reminds us that the management of the Union's borders is a shared responsibility among our countries, one toward the other. We must work together to prevent uncontrolled migrant flows from entering EU territory, with all the consequent risks and the threat of terrorism, which must be countered without hesitation.

La sospensione temporanea di #Schengen con la Spagna è una scelta necessaria per tutelare la sicurezza dei nostri cittadini e difendere le frontiere europee. Una misura prevista dai trattati e resa oggi ineludibile. La crisi dei migranti a #Ceuta ci ricorda che la gestione dei…

— Antonio Tajani (@Antonio_Tajani) July 31, 2026

The Schengen Agreement allows people to travel between participating European countries without routine passport or immigration checks at internal borders.

Suspending Schengen arrangements could weaken the European Union by disrupting trade and travel. Restoring borders and ramping up border security would be a major setback for socialists and the far left in Europe, who have been hellbent on a decade or more of mass migration.

If temporary border controls become more permanent or spread across the bloc, they could undermine one of the EU's defining achievements: the free movement of people and goods.

"The world begins to isolate Spain," X user Agustín Antonetti wrote earlier.

🇪🇸🇮🇹 | HISTORICO — Es oficial.

Italia acaba de suspender el acuerdo Schengen con España. Los españoles ya no podrán ingresar libremente al territorio italiano, necesitaran visados o controles (a definir) como el resto de los países no europeos.

El mundo comienza a aislar a… pic.twitter.com/jsA8Z1MXmW

— Agustín Antonetti (@agusantonetti) July 31, 2026

Spain's socialist-led government has pursued mass migration policies while advancing a mass-amnesty program that could legalize as many as one million illegals.

Against that backdrop, the Trump administration has increasingly aligned itself with nationalist, anti-socialist, and pro-American political movements across the West and, more recently, across the Americas.

.@SecRubio: "For the first time in 15–20 years, the overwhelming majority of the countries in the Western Hemisphere are now led by pro-American leaders and governments since @POTUS was elected president." pic.twitter.com/qr0sFuRXKn

— Department of State (@StateDept) July 31, 2026

The Ceuta crisis serves as yet another case study for those warning about mass migration policies that threaten national sovereignty, internal security, and political stability.

Related:

  • Spain's Border Invasion Is An Optics Disaster For Open-Border Democrats
Invasion: 50,000 Illegals Invade Spanish Enclave In 24 Hours, Chaos Unfolds 

New figures from Spain's Department of National Security indicate that 49,000 people illegally entered the Spanish enclave of Ceuta within 24 hours, according to Reuters.

Just kidding, this is the actual footage … pic.twitter.com/jYRpSWM24e

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) July 31, 2026

For context, Ceuta has only about 84,000 residents, meaning the invasion is equivalent to nearly 60% of its population.

The population of Cueta is about 85,000 people.

The civil guard is apparently reporting that 40,000 Moroccans have flooded in.

The romans invaded Britain with the same number. https://t.co/ZeLFY3TEat

— Anglo (@TheAnglo_) July 30, 2026

The invasion of tens of thousands, in what only appears to be large numbers of military-aged men traveling without food, shelter, baggage, or money, is difficult to explain as spontaneous migration alone.

ESTO ES MUY GRAVE. Me llegan estas imágenes de cómo las autoridades marroquíes vacían camiones llenos de jóvenes cerca de la frontera con Ceuta.

Quien no quiera ver que se trata de una operación perfectamente preparada por el régimen, es que es ciego. pic.twitter.com/YpxFAaF7Wb

— Taleb Alisalem (@TalebSahara) July 30, 2026

A Moroccan border guard opens a gate and lets through dozens of illegal migrants toward the Spanish border fence in Ceuta.

The Moroccan state is coordinating the invasion of Spanish territory.

🇪🇸🇲🇦 pic.twitter.com/yqNbW1QEec

— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) July 31, 2026

At minimum, it suggests organized and deliberate, with high amounts of coordination on the Moroccan side.

Morocco didn’t send 40,000 of its own people into Ceuta and Melilla all at once, with no food or shelter, by accident.

They are using their people to take over Ceuta and Melilla.

Now they are breaking in homes, looting, and setting fires, while the people living there are… pic.twitter.com/EUdSRy0r7b

— Jammles (@jammles9) July 30, 2026

The immediate effect is to overwhelm Ceuta's border security, law enforcement, housing, and humanitarian capacity. If state-enabled, the operation would fit what can only be described as hybrid or asymmetric warfare: weaponizing migration and civilian populations to impose political pressure while preserving plausible deniability.

Earlier this year, Spain's socialist Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez dismissed criticism from Elon Musk and others over his open border globalist policies. His government subsequently granted amnesty to illegal aliens, with Sánchez declaring: "Spain is a welcoming country, and this is the path we choose."

In January, Spain's Pedro Sánchez dismissed Elon Musk’s criticism of his immigration policies.

Today, thousands of illegal immigrants are pouring across Spain’s border.@elonmusk @sanchezcastejon https://t.co/tPsVzlDOpX pic.twitter.com/ZOLFBi2uq7

— KanekoaTheGreat (@KanekoaTheGreat) July 30, 2026

The invasion of military-aged Moroccan men that is overwhelming local security and humanitarian services will intensify criticism of Sánchez's unhinged left-wing immigration policies and raise concerns about national security. This will strengthen support among common-sense right-wing politicians across Europe who have been pushing for closed borders.

🇪🇸🇲🇦 Riots erupted in Ceuta as migrants clashed with security forces thoughout the night.

There were reports of damage to private property, vehicles being set on fire, businesses being looted, and homes being illegally occupied.

Follow: @europa pic.twitter.com/iT8deLYaBf

— Europa.com (@europa) July 31, 2026

"In the face of the massive and coordinated influx of migrants into Spain — encouraged by the Spanish government — France must immediately strengthen its border controls," Marine Le Pen of France's right-wing National Rally wrote on X.

Italy's right-wing Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni said her country was prepared "to intervene with extraordinary measures to defend the borders and the safety of citizens, including the suspension of the Schengen Area with Spain."

"The images coming from Ceuta show how the Madrid Government's decision to grant Spanish, and therefore European, citizenship to over 500,000 irregular immigrants is profoundly wrong and encourages human trafficking," Italy's Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani wrote.

The emerging news cycle across the West could very well frame the crisis as a predictable result of the socialists' "suicidal empathy" and nation-killing open border policies. The footage alone could sway undecided voters regarding the consequences of open borders. In the US, Trump and the GOP will almost certainly use the footage against the Democratic Socialists of America and the broader far-left movement, portraying their immigration agenda as an effort to dismantle national borders and linking it directly to the policies pursued under the Biden-Harris regime.

"Looks Like World War Z!": Spain's Ceuta Invaded By Thousands Of Military-Aged Male Illegals

Shocking footage circulating on X shows thousands of migrants breaching Spain's border into its North African enclave of Ceuta from Morocco on Thursday, overwhelming local police and exposing a serious national security failure.

The invasion comes shortly after Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez's Socialist-led government signed up 1 million illegal aliens to legalize their status under a new program to bring them into the workforce. However, the program applied only to migrants already living in Spain before Jan. 1, meaning Thursday's arrivals are ineligible.

Sánchez has defended his government's mass amnesty for illegals by claiming Spain's GDP would crater by 20% by 2050 without continued immigration.

Sánchez said Spain would lose 19% of its GDP by 2050 - and 22% by 2075 - if migration were sharply reduced, presenting immigration as essential to the country's long-term economic growth.

Thousands of fighting age men who invaded Spain today have begun breaking into people's homes, where women and children live.

It's an invading army.

This is what an invasion looks like. pic.twitter.com/nd99hqT0gw

— 𝐍𝐢𝐨𝐡 𝐁𝐞𝐫𝐠 🇮🇷 ✡︎ (@NiohBerg) July 30, 2026

North African Muslim criminals have just broken into Spain from Morocco via Ceuta. Europe is under attack. pic.twitter.com/kehj5LHvec

— RadioGenoa (@RadioGenoa) July 30, 2026

Almost entirely men of military age. https://t.co/0oTYCCQXT3

— Bill Melugin (@BillMelugin_) July 30, 2026

Today's invasion has prompted us to examine whether left-wing NGOs coordinated with or received support from elements of the Spanish government.

"We're working on an immediate response to the situation in Ceuta"

>Refuses to send in the military for a literal southern border invasion. https://t.co/BhMfIvJDVs

— Trad West (@trad_west_) July 30, 2026

No public evidence has established such coordination, making this an outstanding question at the moment.

They call it a "liberation" of Ceuta, a handover back to its owners. @mattvanswol is right on the money. It's an invasion. pic.twitter.com/vGPCQjqgTd

— DataRepublican (small r) (@DataRepublican) July 30, 2026

Footage:

Holy. Shit.

Spain's far-left PM Pedro Sanchez gave amnesty to 1,000,000+ illegal immigrants, and now hordes of unvetted men are storming across the border from Africa.

It’s the same playbook across the West.
These people will destroy our civilization. pic.twitter.com/NcERXfTbPv

— Geiger Capital (@Geiger_Capital) July 30, 2026

🇪🇸 Sánchez’s government does not consider the invasion of Ceuta a “national emergency”

The Interior Ministry said it will protect border integrity but cannot declare a formal national emergency solely over migration.

As a result, Ceuta’s local authorities cannot access special… pic.twitter.com/rXGdIdBNxK

— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) July 30, 2026

🇪🇸 Thousands of African migrants who illegally invaded Spain today are celebrating their arrival

Soon, Sánchez’s government will issue them legal documents, and they will disperse across Europe. pic.twitter.com/Yx5YDRrnXy

— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) July 30, 2026

Musk chimed in:

Looks like World War Z! https://t.co/GCqWAruEEA

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) July 30, 2026

In the US, Democratic Socialists of America politicians have unveiled a plan to collapse the nation's borders, similar to what was done under the Biden-Harris regime era, increase sanctuary protections, and grant mass amnesty to all illegals. These policies are nation-killing, as the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas said that housing prices and rents soared when the Biden regime allowed millions of illegals to flood the nation.

The most observable threat is that this is a "war on the West" waged by globalists and pushed by the left wing to destroy borders across the Western world. These illegals become voting blocs that displace native-born workers, essentially stealing political power - and the establishment Democratic Party is now learning that the hard way.

All in all, the left wing says they're upholding democracy, yet no sane person voted for this invasion by the tens of millions across the West, which was forced down the throats of citizens.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/31/2026 - 13:36
Tyler Durden

Tesla Weighs China Spinoff As Potential SpaceX Merger Looms

Zero Rss
1 month 4 weeks ago
Tesla Weighs China Spinoff As Potential SpaceX Merger Looms

Tesla is reportedly evaluating whether to separate its China operations through a sale, spinoff, or other restructuring as it considers a possible future merger with SpaceX, according to a new report from the Wall Street Journal.

The discussions reflect increasing geopolitical tensions between the United States and China, as well as the unique regulatory challenges that would arise if Tesla became part of a company with significant U.S. defense contracts.

The Journal reports that people familiar with the matter say Elon Musk has spent several years organizing Tesla so that its American and Chinese businesses can operate more independently. The strategy is intended to reduce risk if relations between the two countries deteriorate further, particularly in the event of conflict involving Taiwan or tighter restrictions on trade, technology, or critical supply chains.

Separating the China business could also help address concerns from both governments. Chinese regulators may be reluctant to allow a major U.S. defense contractor to oversee Tesla's manufacturing operations, technology, and customer data in China.

At the same time, SpaceX's work with the U.S. government subjects it to strict national security and export control requirements that could create additional complications if the two companies were combined.

China remains one of Tesla's largest and most important markets, accounting for about 18% of the company's sales while serving as a major production hub for vehicles and batteries.

Tesla has already taken steps to reduce its dependence on Chinese suppliers and strengthen the separation between its global operations. Although no decision has been finalized, reports indicate the company is evaluating multiple restructuring options as part of broader contingency planning. Musk has publicly denied the report, calling it "fake news."

Just a few months ago, Tesla's China president was quoted by local media as saying the Shanghai Gigafactory could eventually play a major role in mass-producing humanoid robots. 

The Shanghai Morning Post quoted Allan Wang Hao, a senior executive at Tesla China, who said the Shanghai Gigafactory could provide a "golden key" to mass-producing the Optimus robot.

"Like other Tesla factories, Giga Shanghai can shoulder important responsibilities in manufacturing all new products, including robots, to make our contributions to the company," Hao said. "We are highly confident in welcoming the arrival of a new era of robots."

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/31/2026 - 13:25
Tyler Durden

Seattle Police Chief Resigns 4 Days After Deadly Festival Shooting

Zero Rss
1 month 4 weeks ago
Seattle Police Chief Resigns 4 Days After Deadly Festival Shooting

Authored by Kimberly Hayek via The Epoch Times,

Seattle Police Chief Shon Barnes on Thursday sent his letter of resignation to Mayor Katie B. Wilson, four days after a fatal shooting at a food festival, the mayor's office and Seattle Police Department announced.

Seattle Mayor Katie Wilson (C) and Seattle Police Chief Shon Barnes (L) attend the vigil for victims the day after a shooting at Seattle Center during the Bite of Seattle food festival, in Seattle on July 27, 2026. Lindsey Wasson/AP Photo

The shooting at the Bite of Seattle festival at Seattle Center left three people dead and four wounded. One suspect was arrested.

At around 6 p.m. Sunday, a 15-year-old was seen firing into a crowd at the popular three-day festival by at least one officer who was among the dozens of police present. The officer quickly persuaded the teen to surrender. An acquaintance of the teen was among those killed, and four others were wounded, among them a 2-year-old boy.

The aftermath drew sharp public and media criticism focused on communication failures at the scene, and authorities continued searching for at least one more suspect.

After an initial social media post confirming a shooting with multiple victims, nearly five hours passed before additional details were released, including whether any active threat remained. Wilson briefly announced that two people had been taken into custody before retracting the statement, and an official update did not come until a late-night news conference around 11 p.m.

Barnes, who had been attending a law enforcement conference in Dallas at the time of the incident, faced scrutiny alongside city leadership for the delayed and sometimes inconsistent information.

"It has been an honor to serve the Seattle Police Department and this city," Barnes said in a statement released by the mayor's office. "The members of this department show up every single day with professionalism and dedication, and what they did in the aftermath of the Bite of Seattle tragedy reflects the very best of who they are. I am proud of them, and I have deep faith in the future of this department and in the vision for community-based policing that is taking root here."

Wilson thanked Barnes for his service.

"Chief Barnes has served this department and this city with dedication," she said. "The courage and professionalism that the officers of the Seattle Police Department showed deserves to be honored."

Sayles has more than 20 years of experience in law enforcement. He previously served as chief of police in Madison, Wisconsin. He joined the Seattle Police Department in 2025 as deputy chief of administration and investigations.

Wilson announced Deputy Chief Andre Sayles as interim chief as the city conducts a search for a permanent chief.

"My vision for public safety in this city is grounded in transparency, trust, and genuine collaboration with the community," Wilson said. "Keeping people safe requires trust, and trust requires that this department shows up in neighborhoods every day, builds relationships with residents, community organizations, and small businesses, and is accountable to the people it serves."

Sue Rahr, a former Seattle police interim chief and retired sheriff, backed the decision.

"This situation is very difficult, and I admire the mayor for acting decisively to move forward and rebuild strong and engaged leadership inside the department," Rahr said.

Wilson and Sayles will hold a press conference at 11 a.m. Friday at City Hall to introduce the interim chief and detail the process for selecting a permanent chief.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/31/2026 - 13:05
Tyler Durden

Spain's Border Invasion Is An Optics Disaster For Open-Border Democrats

Zero Rss
1 month 4 weeks ago
Spain's Border Invasion Is An Optics Disaster For Open-Border Democrats

The average American has learned about the far-left movement, or more particularly, reformist socialists, otherwise known as the Democratic Socialists of America, in recent months. The DSA says in its own words that its platform is about collapsing America from within. To accomplish that, they must push open borders and flood the nation with millions more illegal aliens, similar to what the Biden-Harris regime of globalists did, among many other nation-killing policies.

The only problem for the DSA is that, after weeks of heightened news coverage in the corporate media about its sinister plan, the news cycle has turned against it. Tens of millions, if not hundreds of millions, of people across the West have just witnessed the border invasion of 50,000 military-aged men into the Spanish enclave of Ceuta at a time when the socialist regime controlling Spain has adopted what some call "suicidal empathy" and welcomed illegals into the country by the millions on a red carpet.

Just kidding, this is the actual footage … pic.twitter.com/jYRpSWM24e

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) July 31, 2026

In the minds of millions across the West, one political association is becoming increasingly easy to see among the average voter: mass migration from the third world is now seen as a direct consequence of electing socialist governments. Spain has become the latest case study, with the country's socialist-led government planning to grant amnesty to at least one million illegal migrants.

We wrote earlier that President Trump and the GOP would connect the dots for American voters through a media campaign, warning that electing socialists could trigger another U.S. border invasion. The chaos in Ceuta now provides powerful imagery of what Trump argues could happen if the DSA seized more power.

Trump said Friday morning: "It's terrible. Remember that picture. That's going to be us in three years if the wrong side gets in... If the Democrats get in, you will not live a very good life."

.@POTUS: "It's terrible. Remember that picture. That's going to be us in three years if the wrong side gets in... If the Democrats get in, you will not live a very good life." https://t.co/gCSfGLO58i pic.twitter.com/K1F7fhYue0

— Rapid Response 47 (@RapidResponse47) July 31, 2026

Readers should remember that the DSA is a reform-socialist organization. That distinction matters because reform socialists seek to destroy and dismantle the nation and capitalism - and reconstruct the political and economic system along socialist lines.

Second, the DSA has openly promoted an agenda that would collapse border enforcement and facilitate another invasion of illegals numbering in the millions. The economic consequences of the Biden-era migration surge are already visible, particularly in housing. Dallas Fed research estimated that unauthorized immigration accounted for roughly 30% of U.S. home price growth and about 20% of rent increases between 2021 and 2024.

All in all, the Ceuta invasion is strengthening the political case for secure borders across the West - already being spoken about by right-wing EU officials today - while creating an optically devastating moment for socialist parties and the open-border left across the West.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/31/2026 - 12:55
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Immigrant Business Owners Prepare Lawsuit Against Mamdani Over City-Run Grocery Stores

Zero Rss
1 month 4 weeks ago
Immigrant Business Owners Prepare Lawsuit Against Mamdani Over City-Run Grocery Stores

Via American Greatness,

Several immigrant business owners are preparing to sue New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani over his plan for city-owned grocery stores, Fox News Digital confirmed Wednesday.

The Multicultural Business Coalition’s board voted this week to pursue legal action against the city over Mamdani’s proposal to open five taxpayer-funded grocery stores that would sell food at prices up to 30% below traditional retailers, according to the New York Post, which first reported the vote Tuesday.

MBC Chairman Frank Garcia said the coalition plans to send a letter to Mamdani’s office in the coming days outlining its legal plans to protect bodegas, competing grocers and other small businesses. If the mayor does not respond or agree to meet within three weeks, the group intends to proceed with the lawsuit.

Garcia said he has sought a meeting with the administration for months without success, despite public assurances from a city commissioner that officials would engage with all stakeholders.

“The commissioner said this administration is open to speak to everybody, and they want to hear from everybody,” Garcia told Fox News Digital.

“So I’ve been waiting for a meeting for a couple of months. Why aren’t they having me? We are ready to file the lawsuit if the mayor doesn’t meet with us.”

Garcia described the effort as nonpartisan, saying it is aimed at defending small business owners who are already struggling with rising costs in New York City.

He said lawyers will be ready to file once the three-week window closes, citing support from a coalition of civil rights and community organizations across the political spectrum.

“We’re nonpartisan. So we’re going to meet everybody, Republican or Democrat,” Garcia said, adding that a Democratic Jewish organization and other civil rights groups have offered support and funding for the legal fight.

The coalition was formed earlier this year specifically to oppose Mamdani’s grocery store initiative and includes members from African, Asian, Caribbean, Hispanic, Jewish and Middle Eastern business communities. It has drawn backing from city and state lawmakers, including New York State Senate Majority Leader Andrea Stewart-Cousins.

The looming lawsuit follows Mamdani’s release of additional details on the city-backed grocery plan, which has drawn renewed criticism from opponents who have branded it a “communist fantasy” and a threat to independent grocers already operating on thin margins. The mayor has separately faced pushback over his endorsed rent freeze, which a group of city landlords is also seeking to overturn in court.

Mamdani has defended the grocery store plan as a way to lower food costs for residents, pointing to it as a signature piece of his affordability agenda. Critics, including small business advocates and economists, have questioned whether a government-run retail operation can undercut private grocers without straining city finances or distorting the local market bodegas and immigrant-owned stores depend on to survive.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/31/2026 - 12:25
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Claude Hacked Three Real Organizations During Botched Test

Zero Rss
1 month 4 weeks ago
Claude Hacked Three Real Organizations During Botched Test

Anthropic's efforts to test Claude's offensive cybersecurity skills produced an unintended real-world result: Its AI models gained unauthorized access to three outside organizations.

The company said the incidents occurred during "capture the flag" evaluations designed to measure whether Claude could identify vulnerabilities, exploit simulated systems, and retrieve hidden information. Claude had been told that the targets were fictional and that its testing environment had no Internet access.

According to Anthropic, a misunderstanding with evaluation partner Irregular left Internet access enabled inside the testing environment. In at least one case, the fictional company named in a challenge shared its name with an active website domain. Claude interacted with the real organization instead of a contained target.

The model exploited vulnerabilities in the organization's infrastructure, extracted information, and obtained access to a database containing several hundred rows of production data.

Anthropic discovered three incidents after reviewing more than 141,000 cybersecurity evaluations. They involved three separate systems: Claude Opus 4.7, Mythos 5, and an internal research model.

In a review of our cybersecurity evaluations, we found three incidents in which a Claude model reached the internet from within or while interacting with a third-party evaluation environment, and then gained unauthorized access to the real systems of three different organizations. Our post describes what happened, how it happened, and what we’re changing. We encourage other AI developers to perform similar reviews.  -Anthropic

"In all cases, Anthropic's evaluation prompt specified to Claude that its environment was a simulation and that it had no internet access," the company said. "Due to a misunderstanding between us and our evaluation partner, this was not the case, and internet access was available."

The models appear to have carried out the offensive-security tasks they were assigned while operating with incorrect information about whether their targets were simulated. 

Capture the Flag

Capture-the-flag exercises are widely used to train and evaluate cybersecurity skills. Participants may be asked to inspect software, reverse-engineer a service, identify a vulnerability, or exploit a deliberately insecure system to recover a hidden token known as the flag. For a human security researcher, the scope of such an exercise is normally reinforced through explicit authorization, controlled infrastructure, and technical barriers separating the challenge from unrelated systems.

Claude received instructions saying that those boundaries existed. 

Once Internet access was available, the agent could resolve public domains and interact with real infrastructure. A naming collision between a fictional target and an actual organization was enough to turn a benchmark task into an unauthorized intrusion.

Anthropic said it stopped the evaluations after identifying the possibility that Claude had accessed the public Internet. The company described the incidents as the result of multiple contributing factors but said it would approach the fixes as though the responsibility were Anthropic's alone.

The story echoes an OpenAI incident where models escaped containment. During that company's own cybersecurity testing, two models exploited a software vulnerability in their evaluation environment, reached the Internet, and accessed systems belonging to AI platform Hugging Face.

A system does not need motives, self-preservation, or an understanding of the outside world to cause damage. It needs effective offensive capabilities, sufficient autonomy, and access that its operators did not intend to provide.

Awkward timing for Anthropic

The disclosure comes as Anthropic is reportedly preparing for a potential initial public offering as early as this year. That adds financial and regulatory stakes to questions about how the company evaluates models with advanced cybersecurity capabilities.

Mythos 5, one of the models involved, had been provided to a limited number of partners and attracted attention for its ability to detect and exploit software vulnerabilities. Those capabilities can be valuable for defensive research, automated testing, and vulnerability discovery. They also raise the cost of mistakes in target selection and evaluation design.

Three incidents among more than 141,000 reviewed evaluations represent a small proportion of the tests. But the relevant risk is not simply how often a containment failure occurs, it's what a sufficiently capable agent can do during the rare evaluation in which the safeguards fail.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/31/2026 - 12:05
Tyler Durden

AI Bear Case: What Skeptics Get Right And Wrong

Zero Rss
1 month 4 weeks ago
AI Bear Case: What Skeptics Get Right And Wrong

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

The AI “bear case” isn’t one argument; it’s three. Burry on earnings. Bernstein on circular financing. MIT on revenue. Two are half right. One falls apart on the data.

Michael Burry broke a two-year silence on November 11 to accuse the world’s largest technology companies of cooking their books, calling it one of the more common frauds of the modern era. That got attention, and it should. When the man who shorted the housing bubble says AI earnings are fake, you listen. But the AI bear case that has hardened over the past six months isn’t one argument. It’s three. And when you pull them apart, two hold up as real risks, and one falls apart on contact with the data.

Three Arguments, Not One

Here’s the problem with the way the AI bear case is usually discussed. The skeptics blur three separate claims into a single mood.

  • The earnings are fake.
  • The demand is manufactured.
  • The spending will never earn a return.

Each one points to something real, but each one also gets stretched beyond what the evidence supports. Most notably, that often occurs in the same breath.

I’ve spent the better part of a year on this question. Last summer, I argued that the deficit narrative would find its cure in AI infrastructure. Then, last month, I stress-tested that thesis against Goldman’s research and conceded where my original multiplier math was too generous. So I’m not defending a permabull position here. I’m doing what my clients would want me to do: steelman the bear, then check the receipts. Let’s take the three in the order the skeptics usually make them.

The AI Bear Case On Earnings

Let’s start with Burry, because he is the sharpest. To wit:

“Understating depreciation by extending useful life of assets artificially boosts earnings.”

His math runs like this. The hyperscalers depreciate Nvidia hardware over five or six years, when the real economic life of a chip on a three-year cycle is closer to two or three. Stretch the schedule, undercount the annual expense, and the reported profit looks better than the economics justify. He pegs the gap at roughly $176 billion of understated depreciation across the industry from 2026 through 2028. By the same math, Oracle overstated near 27% and Meta near 21% by 2028.

Is he wrong? Not on the accounting. Useful-life assumptions are a genuine lever, and a two- to three-year chip cycle on a six-year schedule is a fair thing to question. If you own these names on reported earnings alone, take the point seriously.

Here’s where the argument gets stretched. Depreciation is a non-cash charge. Yes, it moves reported EPS, but it does not touch a single dollar of operating cash flow. Alphabet still generated roughly $165 billion in operating cash flow in 2025, and that number doesn’t care how the accountants schedule a server. The problem Burry describes, even if you grant every figure, is an earnings-quality and valuation issue. The bears conflate “earnings are overstated” with “the business isn’t working,” and only the first claim survives the filings.

Circular Financing And Manufactured Demand

The second argument is the circular one. Nvidia invests in OpenAI. OpenAI buys cloud from Oracle. Oracle buys chips from Nvidia. Bernstein’s Stacy Rasgon said the setup would “clearly fuel ‘circular’ concerns,” and the comparison to dot-com vendor financing, Nortel and Lucent lending customers the cash to buy their own gear, writes itself. Analysts have tagged north of $800 billion in these arrangements.

The concern is legitimate for those specific deals. The mistake is treating the loop as the whole story. UBS put the OpenAI-Nvidia arrangement at up to 13% of Nvidia’s projected 2026 revenue. The other 87% comes from customers buying at arm’s length. Most hyperscaler AI revenue comes from enterprises and consumers paying real money for cloud and software, not from the same dollars chasing themselves around a circle of five companies.

Does the circular piece deserve watching? Absolutely. OpenAI is reportedly on track to lose around $14 billion this year, and vendor-warrant deals like AMD’s are exactly the kind of engineering that looks clever right up until demand slips. But “some of the financing is circular” is a caution flag. It is not, by itself, a bubble thesis.

The AI Bear Case On Revenue

Now, the one that collapses. The headline version comes from the MIT “GenAI Divide” study: 95% of enterprise AI pilots showed no measurable profit impact despite billions spent. The bears read that as proof that the capex will never earn a return. Capex without revenue. The dot-com story all over again.

Two problems. First, read what MIT actually found. The failures were organizational, not technological. Companies were building tools in-house instead of buying them, and aiming them at marketing instead of the back office. In the same survey, roughly 90% of workers reported using personal AI tools at work, against only 40% of firms with official subscriptions.

Here is the most crucial point. The revenue is showing up. It just isn’t always running through the corporate AI budget.

Second, and this is the part that the “no revenue” crowd skips, the study measures the buyer’s return, not the seller’s revenue. Morningstar estimates that in 2025, the U.S. AI sector produced around $100 billion in services revenue. That is enough to cover the cost of running the models. The question was never whether the revenue is REAL. It’s whether that revenue eventually covers model training and research, not just the cost of inference. That’s a live question. “Nobody is paying for this” is not.

So, let’s recap where we are. Two of the three bear arguments are real risks about price and financing. The third, that the spending will never earn revenue, is the one that falls apart on the data.

Where The Bears Are Right

I like the AI trade. Mostly. What keeps nagging me isn’t the revenue. It’s the free cash flow. The four hyperscalers spent about $410 billion on capex in 2025, and 2026 guidance points to something near $700 billion. That’s real money leaving the building. Pivotal Research projects Alphabet’s free cash flow drops almost 90% this year, to roughly $8 billion from $73 billion. Amazon’s could turn negative.

But falling free cash flow isn’t automatically the red flag it looks like, and here’s where I part ways with the harder bears. There’s a difference between a company bleeding cash to prop up a dying model and one spending record sums to build the next one. Alphabet, Amazon, and Microsoft aren’t buying back stock at these levels. They’re plowing the cash back into the business.

The assumption buried inside the bear case, that the spending never earns a return and free cash flow never recovers, is itself a bet against three of the best capital allocators of the past twenty years. Amazon spent a decade being told AWS was a distraction. Microsoft was written off before Azure. “This time is different” is a dangerous phrase in both directions. The honest caveat is that the real difference this round isn’t the companies, it’s the asset: a GPU on a two-to-three-year cycle has to pay off fast, in a way those decade-long infrastructure bets never had to.

So the honest version of the AI bear case isn’t “the earnings are fake” or “no one is paying.” It’s this: spending is running years ahead of payback, and every hyperscaler is building as if the return has already been proven. It isn’t yet. What is crucial is that you can be right about the fundamentals and still pay far too much for them. Cisco had real revenue in 2000. It still fell 80% and took the better part of two decades to reclaim that high.

What The AI Bear Case Means For Investors

Separate the two risks, because they call for different responses. The revenue risk, the MIT “no ROI” story, is largely noise for a diversified investor. The valuation-and-cash-flow risk is the one to manage. Owning the AI buildout at a sensible weight is fine. Owning it as though every dollar of promised capex converts cleanly into profit is not.

That’s how we’ve positioned it. We hold AI exposure across both the Equity Aggressive Growth and Equity Conservative Growth models, but we’ve kept it trimmed to a target weight rather than letting the winners run to a concentration that would sting if the multiple compresses. When the group re-rates, and at some point it will, the gap between a 4% position and a 9% position is the gap between a drawdown you manage and one that manages you.

The bottom line is this. The AI bear case is worth taking seriously on price and financing. It is not worth taking seriously on demand. Anyone selling you the whole package as a single story, bull or bear, is selling you a mood, not an analysis.

The revenue is real. The cash flow is the thing to watch. Price accordingly.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/31/2026 - 11:45
Tyler Durden

It's A Gambling Platform "Plain And Simple"; New York Sues Kalshi

Zero Rss
1 month 4 weeks ago
It's A Gambling Platform "Plain And Simple"; New York Sues Kalshi

Authored by Olivier Acuna via CoinDesk.com,

New York sued prediction-market Kalshi, alleging it offers sports and event wagers in the state without a gaming license.

The petition, filed in the New York Supreme Court on Friday, asks a judge to bar the company from operating an unlicensed gambling business and seeks an accounting of customer bets, losses and company gains, plus restitution, damages and civil penalties.

The state is seeking a penalty equal to three times Kalshi’s gains from the activity, plus $100,000 for each unauthorized or attempted offer of sports or mobile sports wagering, according to a statement published by Governor Kathy Hochul and Attorney General Letitia James.

“New York’s gambling ⁠laws protect children from underage betting and help combat gambling addiction,” James said in the statement.

"No matter what they call themselves, prediction markets like ​Kalshi are gambling platforms, plain and simple."

Kalshi, which targeted a $40 billion valuation during a June funding round, and the prediction markets sector are facing legal challenges across the U.S. In Minnesota, Kalshi and rival Polymarket scored a temporary win when the U.S. District Court for the District of Minnesota ruled the state’s law banning prediction markets likely runs afoul of the Commodity Exchange Act, and granted a preliminary injunction against the law to the two companies and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

“It's sad to see this type of political theater from the leadership in our own state,” Elisabeth Diana, Kalshi’s head of communications, said in an email to CoinDesk.

“States can’t just shut down a federally licensed exchange. This would also hurt New Yorkers, who would be driven offshore. We love New York, we love New Yorkers, and New Yorkers love our product."

James’ office described Kalshi’s event contracts as bets and said the platform takes wagers on professional and college sports, elections and culture.

The lawsuit alleges Kalshi allows users aged 18 to 20 to wager and lists markets involving New York college teams, both prohibited for licensed sportsbooks in the state.

The World Cup helped boost Kalshi's numbers, adding 3 million during the course of the tournament, according to CNBC. That's more than double the 2 million the firm said it had at the start of May.

According to the attorney general’s statement, the lawsuit follows an October cease-and-desist order from the New York State Gaming Commission.

A federal judge denied Kalshi’s bid to block state regulators on July 7 and rejected an injunction pending appeal on July 27.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/31/2026 - 11:05
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US Senators Sent Revised Ethics Rules To White House For CLARITY Act: Report

Zero Rss
1 month 4 weeks ago
US Senators Sent Revised Ethics Rules To White House For CLARITY Act: Report

Authored by Turner Wright via CoinTelegraph.com,

Two US senators on opposite sides of the political aisle have reportedly sent revised ethics guidelines to the White House as part of discussions over a cryptocurrency market structure bill in Congress.

According to a Thursday PunchBowl report, Senator Thom Tillis and Senator Ruben Gallego submitted a counteroffer to the Trump administration that included a change to ethics provisions in the Digital Asset Market Clarity (CLARITY) Act.

The changes would reportedly address concerns from many lawmakers in the first draft by allowing state authorities to enforce a ban on federal officials issuing or sponsoring tokens rather than the US Attorney General.

Gallego, a Democrat, previously said that provisions around ethics, consumer protection, illicit finance, conflicts of interest and market integrity “must be strengthened” and he would continue to work with Republicans to get the bill “over the finish line.”

Cointelegraph reached out to Gallego’s and Tillis’ teams for clarification on the proposed changes but did not receive an immediate response.

The proposed revisions to the crypto bill could bring in support from Senate Democrats, many of whom have publicly said they will not vote for the CLARITY Act “if it protects [US President Donald] Trump’s dominance over an industry that he will have more control to regulate.”

Republicans currently have an effective 52-47 majority in the Senate with Senator Mitch McConnell absent due to medical reasons, and will need support from Democrats to meet the 60-vote threshold for the bill to pass.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/31/2026 - 10:35
Tyler Durden

Entire Russian City Enveloped In Smoke & Darkness After Major Refinery Attacked

Zero Rss
1 month 4 weeks ago
Entire Russian City Enveloped In Smoke & Darkness After Major Refinery Attacked

The major Russian industrial city of Volgograd, in the country's southwest, is being engulfed in smoke and darkness on Friday after a wave of Ukrainian drone attacks scored several hits on key sites.

A sprawling energy facility, as well as warehouse belonging to the online retailer Wildberries, went up in flames, resulting in several injuries. During the attack a residential area was also struck, resulting in the death of a woman in her destroyed home.

Sky darkens over smoke-engulfed city of Volgograd on Friday

Wildberries has since confirmed that a large fire broke out at a logistics hub in Volgograd while reporting no casualties at the site. The attack comes on the heels of more than a dozen Wildberries having been hit by long-range drones over the past couple weeks.

After some 13 warehouses have been hit, reports have estimated that about 10 percent of the company's storage capacity has vanished. The latest attack brings the total to 14.

A statement by the online retailer giant sought to assure customers, "Logistics chains have been reorganized, and the receipt of deliveries and dispatch of orders are being carried out at other facilities."

The Amsterdam-based Moscow Times also notes that "NASA's fire monitoring system FIRMS showed several large active fires at the site of a major Lukoil-operated oil refinery just south of the city of Volgograd. Lukoil has not commented on the reported attack on its facility."

This was further confirmed in Bloomberg:

Ukraine struck one of Russia's largest oil refineries, threatening to disrupt fuel supplies again as strikes on the country’s downstream industry resumed.

Ukraine’s Security Service said on Telegram that it targeted facilities at Lukoil PJSC’s refinery in the Volgograd region, without indicating the extent of the damage. The attack resulted in a fire at the facility, Ukraine’s General Staff said in a separate message.

A large fire has reportedly engulfed parts of the complex, after which the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine boasted of the attack Facebook.

The General Staff described that "Lukoil-Volgogradneftepererabotka is one of the largest oil refineries in the Russian Federation. Its refining capacity is approximately 15 million metric tons of crude oil per year. The facility produces automotive gasoline, diesel fuel, and jet fuel. It is involved in supplying the needs of the Russian army."

Ukrainian drones struck another Wildberries logistics hub overnight, hitting a 44,000 m² complex in Volgograd's Dzerzhinsky district, around 500 km from the front. The strike brings the reported total to 14 Wildberries logistics centers hit over the past two weeks. #Ukraine pic.twitter.com/PMRrTMniNp

— NOELREPORTS 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 (@NOELreports) July 31, 2026

More broadly, several Russian regions faced another night of large drone waves, with the country's defense ministry later saying that over 370 drones were intercepted overnight. Russia has also carried on with nightly ballistic missile and drone attacks on Ukraine, with attacks this week focusing as far west as Lviv, and near the border with Poland.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/31/2026 - 10:20
Tyler Durden

UMich Sentiment Surges To Pre-War Highs; AI Fears Becoming "Salient"

Zero Rss
1 month 4 weeks ago
UMich Sentiment Surges To Pre-War Highs; AI Fears Becoming "Salient"

Having rebounded from record (46 year) lows in June, University of Michigan's final July Sentiment survey was expected to show further improvement MoM, but a slight decline from the preliminary print as gas prices started rising again following the apparent end of the MoU-driven MidEast ceasefire.

However, from 49.5 final for June, UMich headline print rose to 54.4 preliminary and has now jumped further to 55.2 (54 exp) final - the highest since February.

Both Current Conditions and Expectations sub-indices also rose with the latter jumping most and the former down very modestly from the preliminary print.

Broad-based improvements were seen across all groups by income, education, wealth, age, and political party.

“Consumers remain focused on pocketbook issues like purchasing power, while political or military developments remain more in the background,” Joanne Hsu, director of the survey, said in a statement.

Even Democrats are getting more enthused...

Year-ahead inflation expectations ticked down from 4.6% in June to a still-elevated 4.2% this month. The current reading substantially exceeds the 3.4% seen in February before the Iran conflict began, along with all 2024 readings. Long-run inflation expectations held steady from last month at 3.3%, remaining a bit higher than the 2.8% to 3.2% range seen in 2024.

Additionally, five-year expected business conditions reached a 12-month high.

Finally, the report mentioned artificial intelligence has become a “salient” factor for consumers.

Hsu said the comments have been negative on net, though consumers cited both positive effects on productivity and negative impacts on the job market.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/31/2026 - 10:09
Tyler Durden

Senate Schedules Contempt Vote For Fauci

Zero Rss
1 month 4 weeks ago
Senate Schedules Contempt Vote For Fauci

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times,

The Senate has scheduled a vote on holding Dr. Anthony Fauci in contempt.

The Senate Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs on Aug. 5 will consider a contempt resolution for Fauci. The resolution has not been released as of yet.

Dr. Anthony Fauci, former director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases at the National Institutes of Health, testifies before the Senate Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs in Washington on July 29, 2026. Madalina Kilroy/The Epoch Times

If the panel approves the resolution, then it will be sent to the Department of Justice with a recommendation to prosecute Fauci, Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.), chairman of the Senate panel, said during an appearance on CBS on July 30.

Paul has previously requested prosecution of Fauci for allegedly lying to Congress, but federal prosecutors have not brought any charges to date.

Fauci, who led the National Institutes of Health's National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases from 1984 to 2022, read an opening statement at a hearing of the committee on July 29, then refused to answer any questions.

Fauci said he was following advice from his lawyers and invoking his right under the Constitution's Fifth Amendment, which protects people against self-incrimination.

Paul noted at the end of the hearing that a preemptive pardon from then-President Joe Biden issued in early 2025 covers Fauci for any crimes he may have committed from Jan. 1, 2014, through Jan. 19, 2025. Paul asked Fauci whether he, at any point during the time period the pardon covers, destroyed any federal record or instructed others to.

Fauci declined to answer, pointing to the Fifth Amendment.

"My question was limited to the period of your pardon only. I find your objection unsupported," Paul said.

Fauci said in his opening statement that Paul is obsessed with calling for his prosecution.

"The only conclusion I can reach is that the sole reason he is calling me before this committee is to get me to say something, anything that could vindicate his repeated public pledges that I end up, in his words, 'behind bars,'" Fauci said.

Some senators said the situation called to mind what transpired with Lois Lerner, an IRS official who read an opening statement while appearing before a congressional panel in 2013 before refusing to answer any questions. The House of Representatives voted to hold Lerner in contempt of Congress.

Congress more recently approved contempt resolutions against Peter Navarro and Steve Bannon, onetime advisers to President Donald Trump. The men were convicted of contempt and spent time in prison.

People convicted of contempt of Congress can land a fine of up to $100,000 and a prison term of up to 12 months.

Several legal experts told The Epoch Times that Fauci wrongly invoked the Fifth Amendment in response to some of the questions.

Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.), chairman of the Senate Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs, speaks during a hearing with Dr. Anthony Fauci, former director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases at the National Institutes of Health, in Washington on July 29, 2026. Madalina Kilroy/The Epoch Times Tyler Durden Fri, 07/31/2026 - 09:35
Tyler Durden

A Wolf In New York City Mayor's Clothing

Zero Rss
1 month 4 weeks ago
A Wolf In New York City Mayor's Clothing

Submitted by QTR's Fringe Finance

Zohran Mamdani may be the most effective and dangerous wolf in sheep's clothing American politics has produced in years.

Beneath the polished charm and social-media-friendly persona is a grotesque combination of noxious policy ideas, delivered with snake like charm and layered with what feels like an outright hatred for success, individual liberty, free enterprise, private property, and many of the principles that helped make this country prosperous in the first place.

Mayor BigBrain™ was in the news twice this week. First, he came under fire after “effectively doxxing thousands of wealthy New Yorkers”, according to the New York Post when the city published a database identifying hundreds of thousands of property owners who could potentially be subject to his proposed pied-à-terre tax.

But perhaps taking a cue from the Soviet Union’s infamous “kulak” lists, where relatively prosperous peasants were identified, labeled as class enemies, and ultimately targeted for confiscation, deportation, or worse, the database reportedly included many people who may never owe the tax at all, including primary residents and tax-exempt diplomatic properties.

That raises an obvious question: why did City Hall feel the need to publicly compile and spotlight property owners before determining who would actually be subject to the proposed tax?

Then came Mamdani’s proposal for city-owned grocery stores selling staple goods at roughly 30% below prevailing retail prices. Here’s a widely circulated photo of Mamdani holding bananas with a giant “30% off” sticker plastered on them, which makes about as much sense as the proposal itself.

Three bananas cost about $1 from countless fruit vendors across New York City, whether you’re in a wealthy neighborhood or a working-class one. If bananas are supposed to be the poster child for a government-run discount grocery program, it’s hard to see what problem is actually being solved.

Under the proposal, the city would open five taxpayer-backed grocery stores, one in each borough, selling a fixed basket of staple goods at an average of 30% below prevailing retail prices through public subsidies. City Hall estimates households could save roughly $1,000 a year, but it has yet to explain exactly which products would qualify, how the discounts would be calculated, or what the total cost to taxpayers would be. Also, they are referring the “households” getting the discounts, not the ones ultimately paying for the discount via taxation.

Critics argue the plan would unfairly force neighborhood bodegas, fruit stands, and independent grocers, many of which already sell inexpensive staples like bananas, to compete against government-subsidized stores operating below market prices.

Just like many of his taxation-based ideas, the proposal could end up hurting many of the very New Yorkers it claims to help. Across the city, countless neighborhood bodegas, family-owned grocery stores, and fruit vendors (many operated by immigrants who have spent years building small businesses) already compete on razor-thin margins while providing affordable food in their communities.

If the government begins subsidizing its own stores to sell staple goods below market prices, those independent businesses would be forced to compete against an entity backed by taxpayer dollars rather than normal market forces. Instead of strengthening neighborhood commerce and expanding opportunity, the policy risks pushing hardworking entrepreneurs out of business while replacing private enterprise with a government-run alternative.

Questions that have not been answered clearly include: Which products qualify? How much selection will there actually be? How much will taxpayers ultimately spend to keep the stores afloat? And perhaps most importantly, why should privately owned grocery stores have to compete against an opponent with an unlimited line of credit backed by New York taxpayers?

Viewed individually, each proposal can be defended by its supporters. Viewed together, they paint a much more revealing picture. Neither proposal is really about groceries or luxury apartments. They’re about expanding government’s reach into virtually every corner of economic life.

The grocery plan begins with the assumption that high prices aren’t primarily the result of supply constraints, regulation, taxes, labor costs or New York’s notoriously difficult business environment. Instead, the solution is for City Hall to become a supermarket operator. Rather than making it easier for private businesses to compete, government simply decides to compete against them. With your money.

This is the sort of idea that sounds terrific in a campaign speech but becomes considerably less inspiring once someone has to explain where the subsidies come from, how losses are covered and what happens when politically connected interests begin deciding which neighborhoods, products and suppliers deserve preferential treatment.

Markets certainly fail. Governments, however, have assembled a Hall of Fame career in doing exactly the same thing, except with other people’s money. A privately owned grocery store that continually loses money eventually closes its doors. A government grocery store simply requests another appropriation. Failure doesn’t disappear. It just gets moved onto the taxpayer’s balance sheet.

The same governing instinct appears in the handling of the pied-à-terre database. Governments necessarily collect enormous amounts of information. That’s unavoidable. Publicly compiling and spotlighting property owners before determining whether they actually owe a proposed tax is something entirely different.

Just because government can publish information doesn’t mean it should. Property rights and privacy deserve more respect than becoming collateral damage in a political messaging campaign aimed at people wealthy enough to own expensive real estate.

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Some have even speculated that Mamdani's decision to publish this information amounts to creating an "enemies list" of wealthy property owners. I don't go that far…at least not yet…but his hostility toward wealth creation and private success has been impossible to miss, and it wouldn't surprise me if his politics eventually drifted in that direction.

Taken together, these proposals reveal a governing philosophy that increasingly views government not as a referee but as a player, a competitor, a retailer, a landlord, a tax collector and an economic planner all rolled into one. Supporters call that activist government. Critics might call it communism with better public relations.

New York unquestionably faces serious affordability problems. Housing costs are staggering. Food prices remain elevated. Young families are struggling. Those are real issues deserving real solutions. But expanding government into yet another industry while handing taxpayers the bill is hardly an original idea. Versions of it have been tried repeatedly across history, usually with the same predictable outcome: larger bureaucracies, higher costs, less competition and a growing dependence on government to solve problems government often helped create in the first place.

These aren’t isolated proposals. They’re pieces of the same ideological puzzle. One expands government’s role as retailer. The other expands its role as tax collector and public scorekeeper.

Taken together, they point in one direction: a city where government occupies an ever larger share of economic life while asking taxpayers to believe this time, unlike every other time in history, bureaucrats will somehow allocate resources more efficiently than markets. That isn’t a debate about groceries.

It’s a debate about whether New York intends to become a laboratory for communism in America or a city that still believes private enterprise deserves the benefit of the doubt.

--

QTR’s Disclaimer: Please read my full legal disclaimer on my About page here. This post represents my opinions only. In addition, please understand I am an idiot and often get things wrong and lose money. I may own or transact in any names mentioned in this piece at any time without warning. Contributor posts and aggregated posts have been hand selected by me, have not been fact checked and are the opinions of their authors. They are either submitted to QTR by their author, reprinted under a Creative Commons license with my best effort to uphold what the license asks, or with the permission of the author. I cannot guarantee the accuracy of all facts and figures included in this article though I made my best effort to get them right. I have been wrong before and will be wrong again, and encourage you to always double check, do your own research and speak to a licensed financial professional.

This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any stocks or securities, just my opinions. I often lose money on positions I trade/invest in. I may add any name mentioned in this article and sell any name mentioned in this piece at any time, without further warning. None of this is a solicitation to buy or sell securities. I may or may not own names I write about and are watching. Sometimes I’m bullish without owning things, sometimes I’m bearish and do own things. Just assume my positions could be exactly the opposite of what you think they are just in case. If I’m long I could quickly be short and vice versa. I won’t update my positions.

As of May 20, 2026 I am attempting to no longer actively trade (read my story here). My investing/saving is mostly done by recurring contributions mostly to sector ETFs and a few select equities, trusted third parties who oversee my accounts, and advisors. Such advisors or funds, through individual equities, options, index funds, mutual funds, ETFs, or other securities, may have positions in, exposure to, or holdings of names mentioned herein that I know nothing about. Basically, via index funds, ETFs and individual equities it is possible I could own, have exposure to, or not own anything at any point. As of the same date, May 20, 2026, in an attempt to lead a healthier lifestyle, I’ve also excluded myself from fantasy sports, sports betting, online and in-person casinos and prediction markets.

And all positions can change immediately as soon as I publish this, with or without notice and at any point I can be long, short or neutral on any position. You are on your own. Do not make decisions based on my blog. I exist on the fringe. If you see numbers and calculations of any sort, assume they are wrong and double check them. I failed Algebra in 8th grade and topped off my high school math accolades by getting a D- in remedial Calculus my senior year, before becoming an English major in college so I could bullshit my way through things easier.

The publisher does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided in this page. These are not the opinions of any of my employers, partners, or associates. I did my best to be honest about my disclosures but can’t guarantee I am right; I write these posts after a couple beers sometimes. I edit after my posts are published because I’m impatient and lazy, so if you see a typo, check back in a half hour. Also, I just straight up get shit wrong a lot. I mention it twice because it’s that important.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/31/2026 - 08:40
Tyler Durden

Trump Hails 'Historic Agreement' To Disarm Hamas, But Israel 'Skeptical'

Zero Rss
1 month 4 weeks ago
Trump Hails 'Historic Agreement' To Disarm Hamas, But Israel 'Skeptical'

"Today, the Board of Peace reached a HISTORIC agreement for the COMPLETE DISARMAMENT of Hamas and all other armed groups in Gaza," Trump declared Thursday evening on Truth Social.

"This is a monumental step toward lasting PEACE and SECURITY," he added, following months of delicate negotiations involving mediators Qatar, Egypt, Turkey. Implementation is as soon as in the coming weeks, a US official told Axios, after Hamas was widely reported to agree and sign on to the deal.

AFP via Getty Images

"This agreement is a critical step towards Gaza finally being governed by a new Palestinian government that will work closely with the Board of Peace to help the Palestinian people,” Trump wrote. "At the same time, Israel will have the security it deserves, with Gaza no longer used as a base for terror attacks."

However, there's still some angst and reports of incompleteness to the agreed-upon deal. And in the West Bank, Jewish settler attacks on Palestinian villages and towns are on the significant uptick - which militants in Gaza have historically kept a close eye on and reacted to.

But so far, under the terms of the agreement Hamas would fully step down from governing Gaza, yielding control to the newly proposed National Committee for the Administration of Gaza (NCAG) - a body designed to replace both Hamas and the Palestinian Authority. According to a senior US official, this new administrative council "will work for the people of Gaza."

As has been demonstrated in the region many times over, reality may prove far more complex. While Hamas official Ghazi Hamad confirmed to Al Jazeera that "difficult" negotiations had indeed yielded an agreement, his remarks cast immediate doubt on how it would actually be enforced.

Hamad declared, "We will not take any steps regarding disarmament before Israel withdraws from the Gaza Strip," while adding that the NCAG itself would oversee disarmament without any Israeli participation.

This condition directly conflicts with Trump's vision of a "carefully structured" and phased transition, which conditions the withdrawal of Israeli forces on the progressive completion of the disarmament process.

For Israel's part, its forces would not withdraw its military behind the "yellow line" a demarcation in place Gaza since a peace framework was announced in October, until disarmament is complete, per the US plan.

The Hill details that the disarmament process alone could be quite complex:

U.S. and Board of Peace officials said the first step in the roadmap is establishing a “complete monopoly of weapons,” so that Hamas cannot disrupt the peace process moving forward. 

The first tranche of weapons would be police firearms, followed by heavy weapons, weapons depots and tunnels, they said. “That will obviously be a very technical process in which we will rely heavily on the expertise and support of the International Stabilization Force, which has studied this situation for months now and looked at how this can be done,” said one official. 

The final challenge would be collecting “personal weapons,” which would be achieved through enforcing existing Palestinian legislation.

“Of course, there’s the issue of the militias and the clans that exist in Gaza that they will also have to demilitarize and decommission their weapons as part of this process,” the official said. 

The full Trump post:

So while the US and regional leaders are busy celebrating and hailing the plan, the proverbial devil will be in the details and in the process - and needless to say a lot could go wrong.

This is why one US official has described the Israelis as skeptical that this will actually come together and end in the disarming of Hamas and other groups. "They’re very skeptical that Hamas will disarm. But again, they’re not really being asked to do much in the process because this isn’t really a trust deal. This is really, you know, it’s a conditions-based deal. And as things happen, that everyone has to follow the obligations they’ve taken," the official said. 

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/31/2026 - 08:20
Tyler Durden

Situational Unawareness

Zero Rss
1 month 4 weeks ago
Situational Unawareness

Via Rabobank,

Markets have a habit of explaining every move with the most obvious narrative available. This week, that narrative was earnings. Investors spent days dissecting cloud growth, AI capex, free cash flows, and also Fed messaging, while some of the most dramatic price action of this summer was being driven by something else entirely. 

That "something else" was Situational Awareness, the AI-focused hedge fund run by a 24-year-old whizz-kid, which reportedly had to offload most of its public equity book to Citadel following the recent tech rout. It turns out that loading up on leverage and high-beta names works both ways, also if you're exceptionally smart. In a market where everyone is a momentum investor until they become a forced seller, those unwinds are never pretty. You take the escalator up, but the elevator down. 

The timing was certainly interesting. Earlier in the week, Citadel raised eyebrows by calling for a July Fed rate hike, adding to an already nervous backdrop. Days later, it emerged as the buyer of a large block of stock from a distressed seller. Readers can draw their own conclusions. Either way, once the position clearing became public, the sell-off looked less like a systemic event and more like a straightforward deleveraging episode. That was enough to help put a floor under markets, at least for now. 

This morning, chip stocks are ripping higher alongside a broader rebound in Asian tech. South Korea is once again leading the charge, with the KOSPI up 18%, capping an extraordinary week in one of the world's most volatile equity markets. 

Japan also joined the action. USD/JPY was hammered lower from 163 to 159 on Thursday following FX intervention, with Warsh's hold and relatively dovish press conference arguably providing the window the Japanese Ministry of Finance had been waiting for. The dollar had already begun to soften on its own, making intervention easier to execute. 

Initial speculation was that the move would be followed by a Bank of Japan rate hike, but that failed to materialise this morning. Only one of the nine board members, Hajime Takata, voted for a consecutive hike, which would have been the first such move in decades. Even so, Governor Ueda struck a sufficiently hawkish tone to help make the intervention stick, with investors seemingly content to take the BoJ at its word, unlike after this week's FOMC press conference. The yen currently trades around 160.4. 

China was the weak spot. The official PMI data disappointed, with both manufacturing and non-manufacturing activity slipping back into contraction territory. Domestic demand remains soft, and the Politburo meeting offered little comfort for those hoping for a fresh round of stimulus. Instead, policymakers focused on speeding up the implementation of measures already in place. 

The broader challenge is that China still relies heavily on exports to support growth, as the cracks in the domestic economy are wide. Weak consumer demand, falling foreign direct investment, subdued business investment and persistent overcapacity in parts of the industrial sector continue to weigh on activity. Record trade surpluses may flatter headline growth, but they do not provide a sustainable foundation for the economy, let alone its relationship with other countries.

In this report, we argue that China is likely to be pushed, at least gradually, towards a more consumption-driven growth model. That transition will not be painless. The adjustment could prove costly and disruptive, particularly if trade tensions with the rest of the world continue to intensify in the meantime. Our base case is that China's growth trend will continue to drift lower over the coming years and settle below the authorities' preferred 4.5%-5.0% range. We still expect growth of around 4.5% this year, but see it slowing to roughly 4.2% in 2027. 

As Chinese firms currently look abroad to absorb their excess production, Europe finds itself at the sharp end of the adjustment. Partly in response, the EU has rolled out a broad set of policies aimed at strengthening domestic production, reducing vulnerabilities in key supply chains and limiting exposure to external economic pressure. This report provides a non-exhaustive overview of those initiatives. Whilst there is clearly a more coherent framework emerging from Brussels, its is also fair to say that progress in implementation remains slow and uneven. 

US GDP grew by 1.5% q/q annualized in Q2, which, if you forget about silly things as decimal points, is bang in line with President Trump’s growth target of 15%. Consumer spending once again did the heavy lifting, rising 3.2% and accounting for most of the headline growth. Investment and exports also contributed positively, although government spending and imports acted as a drag. Business investment rose a strong 8.4%, largely thanks to continued spending on AI-related infrastructure and capacity expansion. Finally, real final sales to private domestic purchasers, often seen as ‘core GDP’ because it strips out trade, inventories and government spending, grew by a robust 3.9% in Q2, suggesting the private sector remains in good shape. 

In the UK, the Bank of England left Bank Rate unchanged at 3.75%, exactly as both markets and economists had expected. At first glance, the 6-3 vote split looked hawkish, with Catherine Mann joining Huw Pill and Megan Greene in voting for a 25bp hike. But the dissents do not tell a single coherent story. More importantly, the other six members appear comfortable tolerating inflation around 3% for the time being, provided second-round effects remain contained and the economy continues to soften. Bailey effectively confirmed as much in the press conference, making it clear that the Bank is not edging towards a rate hike. Oil prices remain the obvious wildcard, but the hurdle for a September hike still looks high. We expect no rate hikes this year.

Day ahead

The data deluge continues today. The French HICP print for July came in at 2.4% y/y while a much more modest 2.0% was expected, with energy prices being the main culprit. The euro area HICP print follows at 11:00 CET. Headline inflation is expected to tick up to 2.9% from 2.8%, while core inflation is seen holding steady at 2.4%. The expected rise in headline inflation mainly reflects rising oil and crack spreads, feeding through to fuel prices even more quickly than usual, while governments have started to roll back measures that had shielded households from higher energy costs, most notably Germany. 

Even if inflation rises to 2.9%, that would still leave it well below the ECB’s June projection of 3.4% for Q3 2026. That said, higher oil prices and mounting second-round risks reinforce the ECB’s concerns about underlying inflation pressures and keep it on track to raise rates again in September. 

In the US, the Employment Cost Index is expected to have risen by 0.8% q/q in Q2. That would leave wage growth at a pace the Fed could comfortably live with, broadly in line with 2% underlying inflation, assuming it still reacts to the data in a predictable way. Markets will also get a second look at the University of Michigan survey for July. The message probably remains familiar: households remain most concerned about fuel prices and, more broadly, the rising cost of living. 

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/31/2026 - 08:05
Tyler Durden

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