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Futures Slide, Oil Surges As Iran War Returns, Chip Stocks Tumble As Korea, SK Hynix Crash

US equity futures are lower on a combination of US/Iran escalation (which is feeding inflationary concerns) and a violent crash in South Korean stocks (which saw SK Hynix plunge by 15% overnight, the most on record, and unironically follows its record ADR launch in the US), which has put Semis and tech under renewed pressure. On the former, this drove oil prices higher overnight, but gains have been cut in half. On the latter, there is some anxiety around excessive capex spend (Goldman IG bond sales team warned over the weekend that demand for new hyperscaler supply has collapsed), but also some technical factors. As of 8:15am ET, S&P futs are down 0.4%, reversing their Friday gains which pushed the index just shy of a record; Nasdaq futures dropped 1% as Semis came for sale and Mag7 are mostly lower. Defensives are leading Cyclicals as the AI theme looks to be sold today but Fins / Energy are bid. Bond yields are up 1bp across the bulk of the curve with USD flat. Energy is leading commodity space those gains are materially off their highs with metals lower due to Precious metals; Ags are mostly lower. Today’s macro data is a non-event (June federal budget balance at 2pm ET) as the market awaits inflation / retail sales data as earnings kick off tomorrow. 

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mixed( Microsoft +0.3%, Alphabet +0.3%, Amazon +0.3%, Apple +0.2%, Meta -0.8%, Nvidia -1.2%, Tesla -0.6%)

• Agenus (AGEN) soars 46% after entering into a securities purchase agreement for a private placement of $85 million in upfront gross proceeds.
• American Express Co. (AXP) inches 1% higher after JPMorgan raised the recommendation on the company to overweight, saying the premium on the stock is warranted given the defensive nature of its revenues.
• Shopify (SHOP) is up 2% after Jefferies raised the stock to buy, saying second-quarter results will likely beat consensus.
• SK Hynix ADRs (SKHY) drop 8% after the stock fell by a record 15% in South Korean trading, underscoring growing investor concerns that its AI-fueled boom has become overstretched.
• TriCo Bancshares (TCBK) rises 7% after First Hawaiian agreed to buy the holding company for Tri Counties Bank. First Hawaiian (FHB) slips 6%.

In other corporate news, TSMC reported quarterly sales rose 36%, meeting high expectations and signaling global demand for AI hardware remains intact. Apple sued OpenAI for trade secret theft, accusing the company of a coordinated campaign to steal information about upcoming products. Stellantis’s shipments climbed 10% in the second quarter fueled by growth in North America, as the maker of Jeep sport utility vehicles and Ram pickup trucks pushes on with a turnaround plan. Elliott is said to have built a large stake in car-insurance software provider CCC Intelligent Solutions, which has been exploring a potential sale. Conmed is said to be exploring options including a potential sale amid takeover interest from private equity firms.

Worries that the artificial-intelligence boom has become overstretched sent chips stocks plunging in Seoul. SK Hynix, which has embodied the retail frenzy for AI and the popularity of leveraged ETFs that have fed wild swings in the stock, fell by the most on record in Seoul. Korea's Kospi also crashed, and suffered its 7th marketwide circuit breaker for 2026. Nasdaq 100 futures slid 1% as memory stocks such as Micron and Sandisk fell sharply in premarket trading. 

South Korea is increasingly shaping sentiment around the AI trade following the Kospi’s chip-driven outperformance this year. The rally has turned volatile in recent weeks as investors question whether AI hyperscalers’ spending will generate sufficiently strong returns to justify continued investment. Traders also pointed to the risk of a rotation into SK Hynix’s newly listed American depositary receipts, which surged on their debut on Friday. The ADR slid 7.9% in early trading on Monday.

An escalation in violence in the Middle East weighed further on sentiment as the US and Iran exchanged strikes into Monday and issued conflicting claims over whether the Strait of Hormuz was open. The flare-up sent Brent as much as 5% higher before paring gains to trade 3.4% higher at around $78.50 a barrel.

“The sharp selloff in Korean equities from the June peak is raising questions with some investors regarding the sustainability of the AI trade more broadly,” said Daniel Murray at EFG Asset Management. “With Middle East tensions rising again, this too has added to market consternation.”

Beyond this morning’s knee-jerk reaction to Middle East escalation, investors face a packed calendar of major catalysts this week, including key US inflation readings, Warsh’s first testimony as Fed chair, major bank earnings and AI updates from ASML and TSMC. The week ahead is likely to herald a ramp-up in earnings volatility “where crowded trades will get audited,” notes Mark Taylor, director of sales trading at Panmure Liberum, who expects reactions to results to be “simple and asymmetric: beats are the baseline; misses are punished without mercy.” 

With tech set to dominate this earnings round, Taylor underlines the risk of disappointment “when extreme positioning, leverage and elevated expectations collide with even the faintest hints that AI-driven memory pricing and capex may not compound at the same pace indefinitely.” Investors need to see that AI demand is broadening beyond a narrow customer base, he adds.

In politics, the death of Senate Judiciary Committee member Lindsey Graham leaves the panel without one of Trump’s staunchest allies as senators weigh Todd Blanche’s attorney general nomination. A California business tax credit cap aimed at saving $4 billion threatens to drive away film and television production, according to a letter signed by a bipartisan group of lawmakers.

 

European stocks are muted with telecommunications and energy shares the biggest outperformers, while the tech and construction sectors lag. Stoxx 600 little changed at 641.30 with 255 members down, 332 up, and 13 little changed. Here are the biggest movers Monday:

• UK homebuilders rise after The Times reported that Andy Burnham, the UK’s presumptive next prime minister, is to be presented with plans to revive the “Help to Buy” program, a potential boost to sales and margins for the sector, according to JPMorgan analysts
• Akzo Nobel shares rise as much as 4.8% after the chemicals firm rejected Nippon Paint’s a €7.5 billion offer for its decorative paints business and said it would continue to pursue an agreed merger with Axalta Coating Systems
• Gjensidige shares jump as much as 4.7%, the most since September, after the Norwegian insurance company reported net income for the second quarter that beat the average analyst estimate
• Fraport gains as much as 3% after BNP Paribas upgraded the airport services company to outperform from neutral, citing improving cash flow outlook as the company’s decade-long investment cycle comes to an end
• Pagegroup shares rise as much as 10% after the recruitment company reported much better figures than feared during the second quarter, as analysts flagged improving trends across its markets
• DocMorris shares gain as much as 12%, the most since April 16, after the Swiss pharma retailer is upgraded to buy from hold at Deutsche Bank, with analysts noting fading funding risks and upside to earnings
• Plus500 shares fall as much as 15%, the most in six years, as the trading platform operator delivers an outlook that met, but did not surpass, current market forecasts
• Kongsberg shares fall as much as 8.5% after the firm reported Ebitda for the second quarter that Morgan Stanley called disappointing with few positive surprises and signifying a challenge to current valuation levels
• Oxford Nanopore shares plunge as much as 20%, the most on record, after the British DNA-sequencing company reported weaker-than-expected first-half revenue

Asian stocks fell to the lowest in a month on renewed tensions in the Middle East and as SK Hynix shares in Seoul tumbled the most on record. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped as much as 2.2%. SK Hynix sank 15%, while Samsung Electronics and Kioxia Holdings also declined. Korea’s Kospi index slumped 9%, triggering a market-wide trading suspension. “The selloff in Korea is a function of crowded positioning in memory stocks, especially in light of the renewed Middle East tensions and post the euphoria of SK Hynix ADR listing, said Vey-Sern Ling, managing director at Union Bancaire Privee. “Near-term rotation into valuation-depressed sectors like China tech could continue.”  SK Hynix crashed the most on record in Seoul after its US-listed shares surged 13% on Friday. Traders attributed the selloff to profit-taking and investors shifting into the American depositary receipts. Chinese AI-related stocks also plunged amid concerns over rich valuations.

Taiwanese stocks outperformed the broader Asian market as Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. reported quarterly sales that matched analyst estimates. Investors are now shifting their focus to TSMC’s full earnings report on Thursday. Jakarta’s benchmark index gained 1.9%, the most in more than a week, after S&P Global Ratings affirmed Indonesia’s investment-grade score and stable outlook. In other moves, Nippon Paint Holdings fell 2.1% in Tokyo after it made an offer for Akzo Nobel NV’s decorative paints business in the past month. CATL’s shares in Shenzhen climbed 3% as Wall Street banks urged investors to accumulate shares after the recent slide.

In Fx, the dollar barely budged. The yen slumped back below 162 after the GPIF said it does not plan to reallocate assets. 

In rates, treasuries are slightly cheaper across the curve. Bonds in Europe and Asia were the hardest hit, with the yield on two-year UK gilts up six basis points to 4.28%. The rate on 10-year Treasuries rose one basis point as traders added to wagers that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates as soon as September, after a renewed push higher in oil prices as the US and Iran dispute whether the Strait of Hormuz is open, with the US carrying out another wave of strikes against Iran. Two-year Treasury yields touch highest since early 2025. Monday’s US session has few scheduled events. US yields cheaper by 1bp-2bp across a marginally steeper curve, the 10-year around 4.575% with bunds and gilts lagging by 1bp and 3bp in the sector; all are following WTI crude oil prices higher, which are up around 3.5%.  IG dollar issuance slate includes three deals so far. No Treasury coupon supply expected until the 20-year bond reopening on July 22. 

In commodities, brent trades around $78/barrel to add to last week’s rise, though had come close to $80 earlier in the session and has been paring its gain. Iran said its memorandum of understanding with the US is in “crisis” and the two sides disagree on whether the Strait of Hormuz is open. Gold is dropping to move back below $4,100/oz, and Bitcoin is sinking too.

The US economic data calendar includes June federal budget balance at 2pm; CPI and PPI reports are ahead this week. Fed calendar includes Waller at 12:30pm; Chairman Warsh is scheduled to testify on its Semi-Annual Monetary Policy Report before the House Financial Services and Senate Banking committees over next two days

Market Wrap

Top Overnight News

• The US and Iran exchanged fresh strikes while issuing conflicting declarations over whether the Strait of Hormuz is open to shipping. Oil up 3% BBG
• Over the past several weeks, the investment-grade corporate bond market has struggled to absorb a combined $75 billion of bond issuance from NVDA, SPCX, and AMZN. That marks a shift from earlier in the year, when investors were generally happy to hand money to so-called AI hyperscalers by any possible means. WSJ
• Warsh’s first big call will be whether or not to undo last year’s cuts. A steadier economy and stubborn inflation have put a rate increase in play. The new chairman, who testifies this week, hasn’t tipped his hand. WSJ
• Three prominent artificial intelligence developers released new models over the past week. They all promise to be more advanced, but their biggest immediate selling point may not be what they can do but how little they charge to do it. BBG
• China’s crude imports look poised to recover from a months-long slump as the country relaxes fuel export curbs, raises run rates and snaps up prompt Middle East supplies, with analysts and traders forecasting a return to strategic stockpiling later this year. BBG
• Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co reported a 67.9% year-on-year rise in its June sales on Monday, ahead of its second-quarter earnings release later this week. CNBC
• The yen weakened after Reuters reported that Japan has no plans to overhaul the GPIF’s asset allocation. Chief Cabinet Secretary Minoru Kihara said the GPIF routinely undertakes an appropriate review of its portfolio and will make amendments if required. BBG
• Meta plans to spend an additional $40 billion on its data center campus in Louisiana, bringing total costs to above $250 billion. BBG
• Companies from Silicon Valley to Europe are turning to Chinese AI models as they try to cut the cost of using the technology and reduce their dependence on US frontier labs. FT
• The distribution of investor views surrounding the path of monetary policy in coming months is wide. Goldman economists’ baseline forecast is that the FOMC will leave the policy rate unchanged this year but they assign a 25% probability to a scenario where the Fed hikes. Market pricing is more hawkish, reflecting a base case of nearly 50 bp of hikes through mid-2027, with uncertainty around that outlook. Option pricing signals greater than a 50% likelihood of hikes, but also substantial probabilities to scenarios where the Fed cuts or remains on hold. Conversations with clients reflect a similarly wide range of expectations. Investors also express an unusually wide distribution of views regarding the implications of any given Fed policy path for equities. Goldman

Iran War

• Explosions were heard around Iran’s Bandar Abbas and Qeshm Island on Monday afternoon, Mehr News reported, while there is also the possibility of clashes in the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz.
• Reported fire at Kharg Island appears to be a result of routine flaring, according to Nour News.
• Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson said the US violated all clauses of the MoU in less than a month and stated that Iran will not execute commitments in the MoU as long as the US is not fulfilling its commitments. He added that the MoU is in "crisis" phase. Muscat talks with Oman were solely focused on the Strait of Hormuz. On the recent strikes, none of the US bases in any country in the region have been removed from the target list and that the defensive strikes of Iran are solely against the bases, facilities and positions used by the US to attack Iran, including their logistical and support facilities. In terms of further talks, mediators are still continuing their efforts to mediate between Iran and the US in recent days and Iran is in contact with mediators.
• Iran's IRGC said only way to open the Strait of Hormuz is to end US military interventions and respect the sovereignty of the countries bordering it.
• There is no clear timetable for Israel’s withdrawal from the experimental areas in southern Lebanon amid a policy of consolidation and non-compliance with the framework agreement, Al Araby reported citing sources.
• US President Trump threatened that the US military would “completely decimate and destroy all areas” of Iran if its leaders attempted or carried out an assassination on him.
• US forces said they struck 140 Iranian military targets on Saturday and were also reported to have carried out another round of strikes on Sunday, while Iran targeted at least five US allies across the Middle East in drone and missile assaults early on Sunday, as well as announced that the Strait of Hormuz would be closed until further notice. However, the Joint Maritime Information Centre said the path along the Omani coastline is still available for transit, while it was separately reported that a Chinese tanker transited through Hormuz via an Iran-designated route.
• US official said around 20 commercial vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz in coordination with the US military over the last 24 hours, in addition to several vessels without US coordination, according to Axios.
• US military announced on Sunday evening that it began a new wave of strikes against Iran to continue degrading its ability to attack civilian mariners and commercial ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, while Iranian TV reported explosions in Qeshm, Jask, Bandar Abbas and Sirik.
• US Central Command denied a claim by Iran that three US service members were killed in Kuwait, while it stated that there have been no reports of US casualties in the region, with all personnel accounted for and safe. CENTCOM later commented that it completed a new wave of offensive strikes on Iran, hitting dozens of targets at multiple locations to degrade Iran's ability to continue attacking international shipping flowing through the Strait of Hormuz.
• Kuwait’s military said three border posts were attacked and that a drilling platform owned by the Kuwait Oil Company was struck in a drone attack, while it was separately reported that US intelligence sources noted observations that Iran was preparing to carry out a massive attack on the UAE and Kuwait.
• Iran said it caused heavy damage to Jordan’s Prince Hassan Airbase, as well as claimed it targeted the Al-Udeid Airbase in Qatar and a US Navy logistics base in Dukm, Oman. Furthermore, Iran also targeted Kuwait and the US base in Bahrain.
• Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei issued a written statement, vowing to avenge the death of his father and said that it was the demand of the nation.
• Iran’s Foreign Ministry condemned US attacks on Iranian infrastructure, which it said were a violation of the ceasefire deal and the UN Charter, while it warned Gulf states over the use of territory for US attacks.
• Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister Gharibabadi said no action against Iran should go unanswered and called for a pre-set response to any attempt against Iran, its military, Supreme Leader and officials.
• Iranian lawmaker and member of the Iranian Parliament’s National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, Kashkavi, said Iran prefers to manage the Strait of Hormuz through cooperation with regional states, particularly Oman, and stated that the clear official position is that future management of the Strait will be arranged by Iran.
• Iran denied social media reports that claimed the Bushehr nuclear power plant had been attacked, while its nuclear agency said all units continue to operate normally and that the plant is in a safe and stable condition.
• Iraq’s PM is to visit Washington on Monday, while oil and gas deals are expected to be announced, although the Islamic Resistance in Iraq warned the government against US economic deals and demanded a US troop withdrawal.
• Yemen’s Foreign Ministry reiterated that Yemen would continue its support of Iran in the face of ongoing US and Israeli aggression.
• Israeli artillery conducted further shelling in southern Lebanon, according to Lebanon’s National News Agency.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were pressured with the major regional indices all in the red following a fresh exchange of strikes between the US and Iran, which underpinned oil prices and yields, while Iran also declared the Strait of Hormuz would be closed until further notice. ASX 200 was dragged lower by underperformance in the tech, utilities, mining, materials and resources sectors, but with the downside cushioned by resilience in the top-weighted financial industry. Nikkei 225 pulled back from resistance around the 69,000 level with Japanese exporters pressured by higher oil prices and concerns of renewed shipping disruptions. KOSPI was pressured by chip-related selling amid heavy losses in the likes of Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, despite the latter's strong debut last Friday on the Nasdaq. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp conformed to the negative mood, albeit with the downside limited in Hong Kong as participants also digested preliminary H1 earnings updates and with China raising Southbound Bond Connect quota to USD 118bln.

Top Asian News

• China raised the Southbound Bond Connect quota to USD 118bln, while the new quota represents a 60% increase for Hong Kong debt access.
• China’s nationwide electricity load hit a record high of 1.518bln kilowatts on Friday.
• China is cracking down on top ratings for corporate bonds with regulators pressuring agencies to limit AAA designations for high-interest borrowers, according to FT.
• Chinese AI lab Zhipu’s founder said frontier AI should remain broadly accessible instead of being controlled by select individuals.
• Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Kihara said GPIF to tweak its basic portfolio as needed.
• Japan entered the reusable rocket race with its first experimental rocket taking off and returning in a limited test flight by JAXA.
• South Korea July 1st-10th Exports rose 53.9% Y/Y (prev. +85.9%), Imports rose 17.4% Y/Y (prev. +35.6%), Trade Balance is at a provisional surplus of USD 6.36bln.

European bourses (STOXX 600 -0.1%) start the week on the back foot but off worst levels, with price action being primarily driven by energy prices and the re-escalation of US-Iran tensions. European sectors have improved at the open, now printing a mixed picture. Telecoms (+1.9%) top the sector pile, followed by Energy (+1.2%) and Media (+0.6%). To the downside are Travel & Leisure (-0.4%), Construction (-0.8%) and Tech (-0.7%).

Top European News

• BoE is said to be hit by internal divisions over shake-up, with critics stating that a failure to give clear signals is ‘confusing’ and risks wrongfooting the bond markets, according to FT.
• UK’s Burnham reportedly explores holding an expanded autumn Budget, with the incoming PM considering combining the fiscal statement with a spending review to set out his political strategy, according to FT.
• UK Chancellor Reeves is to focus on AI opportunities in her speech to the City on Tuesday, which is likely to be her last City of London event and final opportunity to defend her legacy.
• Spain approved a USD 8bln housing plan that would triple government spending in public housing over four years.

FX

• G10s are mixed against the Buck. Kiwi continues to benefit from rate repricing; JPY underperforms amid the familiar terms of trade/differentials factors.
• USD fails to benefit from the lift in energy benchmarks, following constructive Iranian Foreign Ministry rhetoric this morning: “defensive strikes of the Islamic Republic of Iran are solely against the bases” and “Iran is in contact with mediators”. This pulled both the Buck and Energy off session highs. In addition to the focus on geopolitics, the Greenback positions into a number of key risk events this week including CPI and Warsh’s testimony. Price action since the emergence of London participants has been bearish, with DXY falling from an overnight 101.22 peak to a session low of 100.79.
• JPY underperforms amid the factors mentioned above, alongside the view that Finance Minister Katayama’s GPIF remarks last week were another episode of attempted verbal intervention. Source reports this morning noted Japan has no immediate plan to change target asset allocations of its state pension funds but could work within existing allowable ranges to direct more investment to domestic assets. A report which pressured the currency and saw it rise to a 162.35 peak as the source report further reduces the credibility of Katayama’s remarks (see 08:09 BST analysis).
• Kiwi is the best G10 performer as markets add to RBNZ tightening bets with two 25bp hikes now fully priced - a handful of bps more than the close on Friday. AUD/NZD trundled lower since the Sunday re-open, marking a session trough just below 1.20.

Fixed Income

• Fixed income benchmarks initially fell at the open, as energy prices rose and a re-escalation of US-Iran tensions, but have come off worst levels at the start of European cash trade. Over the weekend, US forces struck 140 Iranian military targets on Saturday and took further action on Sunday, while Iran attacked US bases in the Gulf and announced that the Strait of Hormuz is closed.
• USTs (-1 tick) rotate in a 108-26+ to 109-01 range, with yields falling a touch from 4.60%. On the Fed speaker front, Fed's Waller is slated to speak later today, while a flurry of speakers are expected throughout the week. In terms of market pricing, the October meeting is the first fully-priced hike by the Fed, with a further hike fully priced by Apr'27.
• Bunds (-5 ticks) fell to a trough of 125.20 before coming off their lows, currently trading at session highs of 125.51. The data front from the EZ is quiet, with final inflation figures across the euro area slated for the week. On the supply front, the EU is to sell 3-, 7-, and 15-year Bonds. The sale should go fine, with the 3-year to receive decent demand.
• Gilts (-18 ticks) underperform. There has been plenty of political news over the weekend: 1) Burnham is considering a big budget in November, 2) a review of the Help to Buy scheme is on the table from Burnham, and 3) Chancellor Reeves to focus on AI opportunities at her Mansion House speech. The November budget will be highly-watched, as usual, with allies and experts reportedly pushing Burnham, who is set to become PM on July 20th, to consider a land tax, greater public control of utilities and a more ambitious devolution strategy. Some of the underperformance can be explained by the strength in the crude complex, given the UK's high reliance on external energy.

Commodities

• Crude benchmarks jumped c. 3.7% overnight (vs current +2.3%) amidst the latest bout of US-Iran strikes, and after the Iranian’s announce that the Strait of Hormuz is shut until further notice. Traffic through the Strait has slipped to multi-week lows, with only 6 vessels passing on Sunday (lowest in five-weeks).
• As the European morning got underway, price action was fairly rangebound; however, some volatility was seen following comments by the Iranian Foreign Minister. He began the presser fairly hawkish, where he stated that Iran would not fulfil the MoU as long as the US doesn’t. Some modest upside was seen in benchmarks, but this was soon reversed after he stated that strikes against regional neighbours are “solely” against US bases. He also added that they are in contact with mediators.
• It is interesting that the FM has chosen to say that Iran is "solely" acting against US bases, rather than also mentioning energy facilities. It indicates, at least for now, that the country is attempting to avoid a wider escalation. However, overnight, the Kuwait Oil Company said that its drilling platform was struck. Brent Aug’26 trades firmer by c. 2.3% and holds towards the lower end of a USD 77.72-79.80/bbl range.
• Spot gold (-1.3%) extends lower this morning amidst the reemergence of inflationary woes, as energy prices grind higher this morning. Currently holding within a USD 4,044-4,075/oz range. Elsewhere, base metals are entirely in the red given the negative risk tone. 3M LME Copper (-0.3%) trades within a USD 13,364-13,480/t range.
• OPEC MOMR is expected at 13:00BST/08:00EDT.
• Kuwait has set its August OSP for extra-light crude to Asia at USD 5/bbl discount to the Oman/Dubai average.
• ADNOC sets the August OSP for Murban crude at USD 80.01/bbl.
• Iranian Customs has issued a directive to lift the ban on the export of chemical, polymer and petrochemical products.

Trade/Tariffs

• EU is developing a “solidarity instrument” to support companies diversifying critical supplies away from China and cushion the impact of any Chinese retaliation in the event of a trade war.

Geopolitics: Ukraine

• Ukrainian military announced a drone attack that hit 15 Russian ships in the Sea of Azov, including 7 oil tankers. Additionally, the Ukraine Security Service said it struck a Russian oil depot in the Stavropol region, as well as storage tanks at Kavkaz port.
• Ukraine’s military said it hit an oil refinery in Russia’s Samara region, while Russia also said that Ukraine struck a tanker in the Sea of Azov.
• Ukrainian President Zelensky ousted Ukraine’s premier Svyrydenko as part of a shift in political strategy and is mulling naming Naftogaz CEO Koretskyi or former PM Shmyhai for the role.
• EU failed to agree on the 21st round of Russian sanctions after negotiations on Sunday.
• Slovakia’s President Pellegrini said Slovakia will not be involved in the new EUR 70bln aid package for Ukraine, nor will it supply weapons to Ukraine or fund further rearmament.

US Event Calendar

• 2:00 pm: United States Jun Federal Budget Balance, est. -128.25b, prior -292.65b
• 5:25 am: United States Fed’s Bowman Speaks on Financial Regulation
• 12:30 pm: United States Fed’s Waller Speaks at NYABE

DB's Jim Reid 

As well as two epic World Cup semi-finals before that, and the start of the Open golf it’s a packed week ahead in markets. The headline events are tomorrow’s US CPI and Wednesday’s US PPI, alongside Fed Chair Warsh’s first Humphrey–Hawkins testimony before the House Financial Services Committee (tomorrow) and the Senate Banking Committee (Wednesday). Elsewhere, key data includes China’s Q2 GDP and their monthly data dump (Wednesday) and the UK’s May monthly GDP (Thursday) as well as the announcement of a new leader of the ruling UK Labour Party as a special conference on Friday. And just to keep everyone busy, Q2 US earnings season kicks off tomorrow with results from five major US banks. Q1 marked the strongest non-recessionary rebound since the late 1990s, so the bar is high. ASML (Wednesday) and TSMC (Thursday) should also provide an early read on global tech trends.

Since Friday night, the US–Iran conflict has intensified sharply, with Washington launching multiple rounds of strikes targeting Iranian air defences, radar systems and missile and drone capabilities, while Tehran has responded with attacks across the region and against shipping. The exchange has increasingly centred on the Strait of Hormuz, where Iran has claimed the waterway is effectively closed and warned vessels against transiting, even as US officials insist it remains open and are actively escorting commercial traffic. Reports of damage to vessels, intercepted missiles and drones, and strikes on military and energy-linked sites across the Gulf underscore the widening scope of the conflict. Oil markets have reacted, with Brent (+4.12%) climbing above $79 per barrel and US Treasuries back up a couple of basis points across the board. S&P (-0.56%), Nasdaq (-1.34%) and Stoxx (-0.95%) futures are all lower.

In addition, the Asia tech trade is seeing another slump overnight with the KOSPI (-7.96%) again the weakest performer, amid renewed semiconductor losses. The Nikkei (-2.31%) is also sharply lower. Elsewhere, the Hang Seng (-0.12%) is posting more modest declines, while mainland Chinese equities are under greater pressure, with the CSI 300 (-1.34%) and Shanghai Composite (-1.54%) both trading significantly lower. So a challenging start to the week.

Looking forward now, let's run through the key details of the week ahead we previewed at the top. Front and centre is tomorrow’s US CPI report. Our economists expect lower gas prices to pull headline CPI down by -0.16% (vs. +0.47% in May), with core at +0.23% (vs. +0.21% previously). On a year-over-year basis, headline inflation is projected to fall from 4.25% to 3.81%, while core eases only marginally by 2bps to 2.83%.

Wednesday’s PPI will help complete the picture for core PCE. Our economists’ forecast is for a +0.23% increase (vs. +0.32% last month), which would see the year-over-year rate decline by 3bps to 3.38%. Within the details, the price index for portfolio management and investment advice will be worth watching, particularly given the boost from May’s equity rally.

After a relatively quiet spell for Fed speakers, this week brings a wave of communication ahead of the blackout period starting at the end of the week. Governor Waller begins today with a speech at NYABE. Chair Warsh follows with his testimony on Tuesday and Wednesday, while additional commentary comes after the CPI release (Governor Cook on Wednesday, and Vice Chair Jefferson, Dallas Fed’s Logan, and Kansas City Fed’s Schmid on Friday).

This week effectively represents the final window for policymakers to signal their thinking ahead of the July FOMC meeting. We expect Warsh to broadly stick to recent messaging and avoid firm guidance on near-term policy moves. In contrast, Waller has historically been more explicit about their reaction function, so today’s speech will be closely scrutinised for clues on their preferred policy path—even though it arrives before the CPI data.

Turning to the rest of the data calendar, Thursday’s June US retail sales and Friday’s industrial production will feed into estimates for Q2 real GDP growth. The preliminary University of Michigan survey (52.0 expected at DB vs. 49.5) on Friday will also be in focus, particularly inflation expectations, which have started to moderate from a high level after recent energy-driven increases.

On earnings, tomorrow features JPMorgan, Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo and Citigroup. Wednesday brings Morgan Stanley alongside ASML, Johnson & Johnson and BlackRock, offering a useful cross-sector snapshot. Thursday is especially busy, with TSMC, Netflix, General Electric and UnitedHealth reporting across tech, industrials and healthcare. By Friday, attention shifts to European names including Volvo, Sandvik and Saab, rounding out the global picture.

Staying with the global theme, central bank decisions from the Bank of Canada (Wednesday, no change expected) and the Bank of Korea (Thursday, DB forecast a +25bp hike) will also be in focus. In China, growth is expected to slow to 4.4% YoY in Q2 (from 5% in Q1), with June activity data released alongside. More detail is available in our Chinese economists’ full week-ahead note here. Finally, the UK reports May monthly GDP on Thursday, the day before Andy Burnham is expected to be confirmed as Labour Party leader, ahead of him officially taking the PM reins a week today and tapping into the England World Cup winning celebrations. Oh wait this must be another major hallucination.

Recapping last week now and the main news was the re-escalation between the US and Iran, which led to a decent jump in oil prices as investors priced in more disruption around the Strait of Hormuz. Indeed, Brent crude was up +5.39% last week (-0.38% Friday) to $76.01/bbl. And even though it still left oil prices well beneath their peak earlier in the year, it still revived fears about more persistent inflation.  

That oil price spike hit European assets in particular, given the continent’s greater exposure to an energy shock. So sovereign bond yields saw a decent jump, with those on 10yr bunds up +13bps (-1.7bps Friday) to 3.06%. Moreover, investors also priced in a more hawkish ECB, with the amount of further hikes priced by December up +12.9bps on the week to 34bps. For equities, there was also a decent hit, with the STOXX 600 down -1.79% (+0.04% Friday), marking its biggest weekly decline since April.   

Over in the US, markets put in a relatively stronger performance, with equities supported by a stabilisation in chip stocks. That saw the Philly semiconductor index recover +2.70% (+0.06% Friday), with the S&P 500 ultimately up +1.23% (+0.42% Friday). Meanwhile, US Treasury yields also saw a more muted rise relative to Europe, with the 10yr yield only up +7.8bps (+1.0bps Friday) to 4.56%.   

Otherwise, there weren’t too many headlines from other asset classes. In FX, the dollar index was marginally unchanged, with a +0.09% rise. And in US credit the moves were also fairly muted, with US IG (+1.9bps) and HY (-4.3bps) spreads seeing small moves. However, there were slightly bigger moves in European credit, where Euro IG (-1.9bps) and HY spreads (-12bps) both tightened. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/13/2026 - 08:48

Watch For These Credit Signals In This Week's Big Bank Earnings

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmetAdvice.com,

Price closed Friday at 7,575, sitting 1.86% above its rising 50-day moving average near 7,429 and a healthy 8.7% above the 200-day average at roughly 6,960. Both averages slope higher, and the price is above both. That is a bullish structure, full stop. The 14-day RSI reads 59, which is firmly neutral with room to run before it flashes overbought, and the MACD remains in a positive posture with the signal line trailing below. Momentum is constructive, not stretched.

The wrinkle is under the surface. This week’s advance was driven by a handful of names while the equal-weight index and small caps slipped, so the momentum you see on the chart is thinner than it looks. We have maintained equity exposure at target weight in our models since April 17, and this is precisely the tape that argues for discipline rather than taking on fresh risk. When the generals march, and the troops sit, you respect the trend, but you tighten your stops.

Volume told the same story as breadth. The push toward the highs came on unremarkable participation, and the new-high lists were dominated by the same technology and communication-services names that led the tape all week. That is not the broad thrust you want confirming a durable breakout to fresh records. At nearly 9% above the 200-day average, the index is not dangerously stretched, but it is closer to the top of its typical band than the bottom, which is another argument for buying pullbacks rather than chasing breakouts. It does not break the uptrend. It lowers the quality of it.

The line that matters most next week is 7,612. A clean, high-volume breakout above the June record clears the runway toward 7,700 and keeps the trend intact. A failure right at the old high, especially on the same narrow breadth we saw this week, would set up a pullback to the 50-day average, and that is the level I would be watching for a low-risk entry rather than chasing strength into resistance.

🔑 Key Catalysts Next Week

Two storylines collide next week, and both land on the same days. The macro question is whether June inflation confirms the reacceleration we saw in May, and the market question is whether the big banks validate the earnings optimism baked into financial stocks. The marquee event is Tuesday’s CPI report at 8:30 a.m. ET. Consensus looks for a cooler headline near 3.5% year over year, but the Cleveland Fed nowcast is tracking closer to 4%. That gap is the whole ballgame for the September rate-cut narrative.

PPI follows on Wednesday, retail sales and jobless claims hit on Thursday, and Friday brings housing starts and the first read on July consumer sentiment. Anything that reinforces sticky inflation while the labor market softens revives the stagflation worry we have written about all spring. On the earnings side, the money-center banks open the Q2 season, and their commentary on credit and the consumer will set the tone for everything that follows.

The single most market-moving event is Tuesday’s CPI, and the asymmetry is what makes it dangerous. A cool print near 3.5% lets the September-cut trade run and likely pushes the S&P through its record. A hot print with a 4-handle would force the market to reprice the Fed in a hurry, and that is the outcome that would do the most damage to a tape already leaning on just a few names.

💰 What Big Bank Earnings Will Tell Us About The Consumer

Every quarter, the ritual is the same. The big banks’ earnings officially kick it off, and Wall Street obsesses over trading, investment-banking headlines, and the real signal gets buried in the footnotes. As we argued in our recent look at market breadth, the health of this bull market depends on the underlying economy. Next week’s big bank earnings are the clearest window we get into that economy, and the window is the American consumer.

Financials enter this reporting season with the market expecting sector earnings growth above 12% and revenue growth north of 8%. Simply, the bar is not low.

Goldman Sachs is expected to earn $13.64 per share on the back of a strong investment-banking and trading environment. JPMorgan is pegged near $5.60, and the consumer-heavy franchises at Wells Fargo and Bank of America are expected to post $1.72 and $1.10, respectively. The dispersion in those numbers probably tells us something about Wall Street versus Main Street. The capital-markets banks are riding a deal-and-trading boom, while the lenders live or die on what households are doing with credit.

Here is the tension. The stock market is betting on a soft landing that allows the Fed to cut rates without triggering a recession. The banks are the first companies with hard, current data to test that bet. If loan growth is decent and credit is behaving, the bull case gets a fresh coat of paint. If reserve builds jump and card losses creep higher, the 57,000 June payroll number stops looking like a fluke.

The Credit Signals Buried In The Big Bank Earnings

Forget the headline beat or miss. The numbers that actually forecast the economy are the credit metrics, and they rarely make the front page. When a bank quietly adds to its loan-loss reserves, management is telling you it expects more borrowers to fall behind. When net charge-offs climb, borrowers already have. Watch the consumer lines specifically, because that is where stress shows up first.

The reason this matters right now is the labor market. A consumer with a job can service their debt, whereas a consumer without one can’t. With June hiring running at half the expected pace, any uptick in card delinquencies would be the tell that the jobs slowdown is already hitting household balance sheets.

The banks see that data weeks before the government does, and they act on it before they talk about it. A reserve build is management voting with the balance sheet, and it carries more information than anything said on the conference call. Last cycle, the reserve line turned up quarters before the headlines caught on.

The tells are specific, and they rarely sit in the headline. Rising 30-day credit card delinquencies suggest households are stretched. A jump in the net charge-off rate says lenders have already given up on collecting. Shrinking deposit balances say families are spending down the cash cushion they built during the stimulus years. Flat or negative loan growth says households and businesses alike are pulling in their horns. One of those moving is noise. Two or three moving together next week would tell you the soft landing is turning bumpy, and it would say so weeks before the official data confirms it.

Net Interest Margins Into A Rate-Cut Cycle

The second major theme is how falling rates affect bank profitability. Net interest margin is the spread between what a bank earns on loans and what it pays for deposits. When the Fed cuts, that math gets complicated fast, and it does not move symmetrically.

Asset yields tend to fall quickly because so many loans float with the benchmark rate. Deposit costs come down more slowly because banks are reluctant to cut what they pay savers who could walk to a competitor or a money-market fund.

That lag pinches margins in the early innings of an easing cycle. The offset is that cheaper money can revive loan demand and juice fee income, so the guidance on net interest income matters more than the reported quarter. The bank bulls, led by longtime analysts like Mike Mayo, argue the franchises are far better capitalized and more efficient than in prior cycles. They may be right. THE MARGIN MATH STILL HAS TO CLEAR.

The banks are not just companies to trade around earnings. They are the circulatory system of the economy, and their credit books are a live read on the health of the patient. Ignore the trading-desk headline and read the reserve line.

The Private Credit Blind Spot

Here is the risk that does not show up cleanly on any single earnings line, and it is the one I would watch most closely. Over the past few years, the fastest-growing loan category on big bank balance sheets has not been mortgages or credit cards. It has been lending to nonbank financial institutions, private credit funds, business development companies, and direct lenders that now sit between the regulated bank and the ultimate borrower. Banks report these as loans to NDFIs. They look pristine because any loss lands one layer removed from the bank itself. That is precisely what makes them dangerous.

Private credit has ballooned into a multi-trillion-dollar market with a fraction of the disclosure of the syndicated loan market it replaced, and most of it has never been tested through a real default cycle. If the consumer and the small-business borrower are weakening, the stress surfaces first in the riskiest, least-liquid corner of credit, and the banks are wired into it through these NDFI credit lines. Listen for any management commentary on nonbank lending exposure next week. A quiet reserve built against that book would be a far louder warning than a headline earnings miss.

What Should Investors Do Now

So, as we head into next week, how should we position? First, do not trade the headline, but trade the setup. Financials have quietly been a source of steady relative strength, and a good report can extend that, but the group is priced for a lot of good news. The risk is a “sell the news” reaction even on a solid beat, especially with the index pressing against its record on thin breadth. Position accordingly.

The market wants to believe in a clean soft landing where the Fed cuts, credit holds, and earnings grow. Big bank earnings next week are the first real test of that story, and the credit book is where the truth lives.

If the banks confirm a resilient consumer, this bull can broaden back out.

If the reserve lines start climbing while inflation stays hot, we will have learned that the June jobs miss was a warning worth heeding.

Watch the footnotes closely. For a deeper look at the mean-reversion math behind stretched valuations, our recent work on mega-cap concentration risk pairs directly with this week’s theme, and the Fed’s Senior Loan Officer survey and the BLS inflation data are the two macro anchors that we will monitor our portfolio positioning around.

Trade accordingly.

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/13/2026 - 07:45

AI Winners Unwind Sparks Panic In South Korea As SK Hynix Suffers Record Plunge, KOSPI Dumps

SK Hynix shares suffered their steepest decline on record in Seoul following Friday's blockbuster ADR debut in New York. The sell-off spread across South Korea's memory and data storage stocks, helping to drive the benchmark KOSPI down as much as 9% and triggering a 20-minute market-wide trading halt.

SK Hynix fell 15% to 1.845 million won on Monday, while its ADRs dropped nearly 9% in premarket trading to $153.50. The decline came as the chipmaker began trading under its ticker "SKHY" following last Friday's $26.5 billion U.S. listing, the largest share sale by a foreign company.

"Korea's SK Hynix shares are now down 15.6% on the day, for a 37% decline since the June 22 high. Still, the stock is 160% higher than at the start of the year. In part the drop in the Korea listing reflects a switch trade – selling the locally listed shares to buy the US ADRs, which launched on Friday. The stock is a darling of the retail investor, which can squeeze it in both directions," UBS analyst Simon Penn wrote in a note on Monday morning.

Goldman analyst Christopher Cha noted, "And today another -9% move..  Foreign and local institutional investors ended the day as net sellers, offloading $1.13 billion and $1.5 billion respectively. Local institutional selling was heavily concentrated in ETF-related liquidations, while foreign selling was almost entirely passive, with program trading accounting for $1.18 billion of the net outflows. Our High-Touch trading desk observed flows that mirrored this passive-heavy dynamic; institutional block activity was surprisingly muted despite the index's dramatic drop. We saw selective selling from momentum-driven hedge funds, while LOs remained quiet."

What changed last night was the buyer base: after months in which foreign outflows were absorbed by domestic demand, such as institutions and retail investors, foreign and local traders sold in tandem, accelerating the stock plunge. 

Here's additional commentary: "The weakness in memory seemed more flow-driven again (today joint net-selling by foreigners and local instos in Tech) with the ongoing consolidation in KOSPI. In SEC, foreigners and local instos jointly net sold -$129mn/-$564mn respectively, while retail investors bought the dip +$730mn." 

Meanwhile, popular leveraged ETFs that fueled the memory stock surge in Seoul plunged the most on record... 

UBS analyst Charles Lee commented on SK Hynix's technicals, saying, "Lastly, on the technical side, SK Hynix's 50-day moving average (KRW2.158 mn) has again failed to hold. The stock has been battling around this level while finding support at KRW2.0 mn throughout July, but it broke below that key support level on Monday."

More broadly, Justinus Steinhorst at UBS noted, "There's continued weakness in AI Winners, with the basket {UBXEAIW} down 1.4%. TSMC sales were in line but there is a big unwind in the Asia memory trade as SK Hynix had its worst day on record post Friday's ADR debut. ASML earnings on Wednesday will be the most important catalyst for the AI trade this week. UBS expects a strong print with a likely FY guidance upgrade."

Weakness spread across memory and computer storage stocks, with Samsung down 10%, SanDisk down 7%, Western Digital down 7%, and Micron down 5.6%.

The brunt of the sell-off was concentrated in South Korea, where the KOSPI closed nearly 9% lower, extending its correction from its June highs to more than 20%.

Selling spread Stateside to Nasdaq futures, down around 1%. 

UBS analyst Joe Dickinson noted that "recent price action across the AI trade continues to resemble a short-term 'peak narrative' unwind."

Circling back to our weekend note, "Carnage" in the Hyperscaler Bond Market: Did Goldman Just Pop the AI Debt Bubble, Goldman's head of credit strategy, Amanda Lyman, provides new insight into the growing stress across the hyperscaler and AI bond market.

Read the full report here.

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/13/2026 - 07:25

"What Makes It Even Stranger...": Trump Describes Saturday Night Phone Call With Lindsey Graham Hours Before Senator's Death

Update (1815ET):

Officially, Graham died of an aortic dissection due to Arteriosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease, according to preliminary findings by the DC Medical Examiner - so who knows. An aortic dissection is characterized as a tearing of the aortic wall. 

Update (1135ET): President Trump has weighed in on Graham's death, telling Meet the Press that Graham called him in the 'early evening,' to tell Trump he was 'all set for the Save America Act,' and that it may have been the last call Graham made. 

"what makes it even stranger is that I got a call last night sometimes in, you know, the early evening, maybe in the 7:00's. And he called and he said, "We're all set for the Save America Act,"" Trump told host Kristen Walker. "He was pushing the Save America Act like crazy. He got back, said he just landed from Ukraine. I said, "That's a long trip to make.""

TRUMP: “What makes it even stranger is that I got a call last night sometime … and [Lindsey Graham] said we're all set for the Save America Act … We thought maybe we might even meet today. And then that was it.” pic.twitter.com/9YVdW3VzRM

— Chief Nerd (@TheChiefNerd) July 12, 2026

Graham notably toured a top secret Ukrainian 'Skyfall' drone factory (see more below) days before his death, where the country's deadly 'Baba Yaga' Vampire bomber drones are manufactured. He also announced an upcoming Russian sanctions package, and said that the US can learn a lot from Ukraine's UAV advancements.

"I believe that it would be a huge mistake for America not to cooperate with Ukraine in the field of drones. They are ready to help us, because we were ready to support Ukraine in the most difficult times," Graham said. 

This was Lindsey Graham two days ago in Kyiv after meeting with Zelensky. pic.twitter.com/J8VW3hmXfl

— MAZE (@mazemoore) July 12, 2026

US Senator Lindsey Graham visited Ukraine's SkyFall and got a look at Vampire heavy bomber drones, Shrike FPVs and P1-SUN Shahed interceptors, plus some new tech not yet on the battlefield. Looks pretty happy holding Ukraine's P1-SUN drone in the photo. pic.twitter.com/o2gFBt657c

— WarTranslated (@wartranslated) July 11, 2026

When asked about a replacement for Graham, Trump said "I have somebody that I think would be great. But I don't want to say it now because, you know, it's too soon with Lindsey. I don't want to even talk about anybody. But I do have somebody that I think is really good."

International Response

In reaction to Graham's death, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy paid tribute, describing Graham as “a true defender of freedom and of the values that make our world safer.” He highlighted that Graham had visited Ukraine ten times during the war, noting they were in constant dialogue. Zelenskyy added that Graham had been working on key initiatives in recent weeks to advance peace, including stronger sanctions against Russia. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha called Graham a “true friend” and “one of the strongest voices” supporting Ukraine in its war against Russia. He praised Graham for pushing to bolster sanctions on Russia and for helping provide Ukraine with the means to defend itself.

NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte described Graham as “a powerful advocate for America who believed strongly in the NATO Alliance” and noted that he was actively working to end Russia’s war against Ukraine.

* * *

Lindsey Graham, the Republican foreign-policy hawk from South Carolina, died abruptly on Saturday following what his office described as "a brief and sudden illness," according to a statement posted on X.

"On the evening of Saturday, July 11, U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham passed away from a brief and sudden illness. Senator Graham's family appreciates prayers at this time and asks for privacy during this incredibly difficult period," Graham's office said.

Statement from the Office of U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham (R-South Carolina). pic.twitter.com/CQ5yVvqTH1

— Lindsey Graham (@LindseyGrahamSC) July 12, 2026

Graham had served in the Senate since 2003 and was seeking a fifth term. He was in Kyiv on Friday touring a major drone factory before returning to Washington, where he was scheduled to appear on NBC's "Meet the Press" on Sunday morning.

Emergency personnel responded to his home in Washington on a reported cardiac arrest on Saturday evening, according to NBC News.

President Trump commented early Sunday on Truth Social about the passing of the senator, calling him a "true American Patriot."

Trump said, "Senator Lindsey Graham, one of the greatest people and Senators I have ever known, is dead! He was always working, and was a true American Patriot. Lindsey will be greatly missed!!!"

To note, Graham was on an Iranian kill list. Just days ago, Trump said if he was assassinated, then "bomb them at levels never seen before." 

At least they used a good photo of me.

Judge me by my enemies. https://t.co/Ok2Oq1v4O5 pic.twitter.com/b1RBvzKo9K

— Lindsey Graham (@LindseyGrahamSC) July 6, 2026

Graham was once a fierce Trump critic, denouncing him during the 2016 presidential campaign before transforming into one of his most loyal supporters. He also advocated a hard line against Iran and consistently backed a strong US military posture overseas.

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/13/2026 - 06:35

Trust Is Lost From Both Financial Markets And Sports

Submitted by QTR's Fringe Finance

A couple of months ago I wrote that I had stopped actively trading, stopped sports betting, quit fantasy football and the likes. I also spoke out against the culture of gambling taking over our country. The reason? In short, it’s all fucking impossible to predict, there’s always going to be sharper money with better leans on short term bets.

Whether its massive 0DTE puts coming in on oil before a Trump ceasefire announcement or someone seeing Conor McGregor limping into the ring and knowing he already had a leg injury last night before his fight, the rigging of both sports and financial markets is now beyond obvious.

My column in May, one of the most read pieces ever published on my blog, wasn’t some dramatic life announcement or an attempt to prove anything to anybody. I had simply reached a point where I was exhausted by living inside a constant loop of anticipation, reaction, and emotional volatility. Looking back, I don’t think I appreciated just how much of my mental bandwidth was being consumed by things that were completely outside of my control.

Two months later, I can say without hesitation that stepping away has been one of the healthiest decisions I’ve made in years. I’m calmer and I can enjoy watching the news, the market and sports again innocently, without the excruciating worry that a last minute “meaningless” dunk in a basketball game or a Trump Truth Social post from the White House shitter at 3AM after a late night Big Mac binge is going to alter the course of my mood for the day.

My life has become noticeably quieter, and I’ve realized that quiet isn’t something to fear…it’s something to protect.

And if we needed another reminder why sports betting is such an absurd way to spend our money and attention, all anyone had to do was watch last night’s UFC main event. If you blinked, you may have missed it.

Millions of people spent months anticipating what was supposed to be one of the biggest fights of the year. Countless hours were spent breaking down fighters, studying betting lines, debating strategies, listening to podcasts, and trying to find a perceived edge. Instead, within moments it became obvious that something wasn’t right. McGregor looked compromised almost immediately, and what was supposed to be a memorable main event became a disappointment as quickly as it started.

Half the betting public celebrated because their tickets cashed. The other half immediately tore theirs up. But almost everyone walked away feeling cheated because the fight itself never really happened.

That, to me, perfectly summarizes modern sports betting. It makes sports hollow and meaningless to a degree. The entertainment itself gets replaced by financial outcomes. Instead of appreciating great competition, we’re constantly evaluating whether our bet is alive or dead. The event stops being the product. The wager becomes the product.

Then come the questions everyone is asking today. Was McGregor already injured before the fight? How serious was it? Who knew beforehand? Did the promotion know? Did his camp know? Were sportsbooks aware? Did sharp bettors pick up on information the public didn’t have access to?

Whether any of those questions have sinister answers almost doesn’t matter. The fact that they immediately become reasonable questions tells you everything you need to know about how fragile trust has become and how the perceived integrity of all sports is diminishing as a result of gambling. The average bettor is being asked to risk real money while operating with only a tiny fraction of the information that may actually determine the outcome.

The recent NBA gambling scandal is another obvious example. A growing federal investigation alleges that several current and former NBA players manipulated their own performances and leaked insider information to profit from prop bets, raising fresh questions about the integrity of the league.

Suddenly people aren’t just wondering whether a player had a bad shooting night, they’re wondering whether somebody knew something beforehand. Every integrity investigation, every suspicious betting line movement, every undisclosed injury chips away a little more at confidence that everyone is operating on a level playing field.

The Egypt-Argentina World Cup controversy offered another reminder. Egypt’s loss to Argentina became controversial because several crucial refereeing and VAR decisions went against Egypt, leaving its players and supporters convinced the match had been tilted toward Argentina.

Instead of talking about the quality of the match, fans spent days debating officiating decisions, stoppages, administrative confusion, and whether the competition itself had been handled fairly. Increasingly, sporting events seem to generate almost as much discussion about process and integrity as they do about athletic performance.

The average person has absolutely no idea where the informational playing field begins or ends anymore. If leagues, athletes, officials, betting syndicates, insiders and sportsbooks all potentially possess information before the public does, how exactly is the average fan supposed to believe they’re making informed decisions?

We’ve seen the same erosion of trust spill over into politics and financial markets. Over the last six months alone, there have been a string of remarkably well-timed options trades, commodity bets, and prediction market wagers placed just ahead of major Trump administration announcements on tariffs, geopolitical events, and other market-moving decisions.

At the same time, financial disclosures revealed that President Trump’s trust executed thousands of trades while he remained in office, including positions in companies directly affected by administration policy, which is to say nothing of the billions he has made from crypto.

The Trump Organization says those trades were made independently by outside managers, not by Trump or his family, and there is no public evidence proving wrongdoing. But I’ve been around markets long enough to know that when unusually well-timed trades repeatedly appear before major policy announcements, and elected officials continue actively trading while making market-moving decisions, it’s not hard to understand why so many people have started questioning whether the average investor is playing the same game as everyone else.

And then there’s central banks, governments and policymakers distorting markets to the point where fundamentals feel/are irrelevant. You can spend months researching a company, identifying valuation discrepancies and constructing a thoughtful thesis, only to watch everything change because one central banker decided to scratch his nuts the wrong way during a press conference.

Sports increasingly feels similar. Injuries are strategically disclosed. Officials make subjective decisions. Replay reviews change outcomes. Gambling markets move before news becomes public. League politics influence narratives. Every year the relationship between sportsbooks, leagues, broadcasters and gambling companies becomes more intertwined.

Eventually you begin asking yourself whether you’re actually analyzing sports or simply trying to guess what information everyone else has that you don’t.

That realization was enough for me.

More broadly, though, I think gambling itself is quietly becoming one of the defining cultural problems of our time.

Twenty years ago you had to make an effort to gamble. Today it is impossible not to be surrounded by it. Every commercial break promotes betting odds. Every sports broadcast has sponsored segments explaining parlays. Every podcast has a promo code. Every influencer suddenly has “locks of the week.” Live betting has transformed every possession into an opportunity to wager. Kids who barely remember a world without smartphones are growing up believing it’s completely normal to have money riding on every pitch of a baseball game or every possession in an NBA contest.

We have convinced ourselves this is harmless entertainment. That’s bullshit.

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We’re teaching an entire generation to experience sports through financial anxiety instead of appreciation. We aren’t encouraging patience or discipline, we’re encouraging impulsivity. Every moment becomes another opportunity to chase dopamine. Every near miss becomes an excuse to reload. Every loss becomes a reason to get even.

It’s the exact same psychological machinery that exists in day trading, prediction markets, leveraged crypto, online casinos and social media. The industries are different, but the business model is identical: monetize attention by keeping people emotionally activated every waking minute of the day. People celebrate that you can trade crypto 24/7. That’s a bug, not a feature.

Both markets and sports betting quietly train your brain to believe that stillness is failure and that boredom is something to eliminate instead of embrace. I don’t regret anything I wrote back in May. If anything, the last two months have reinforced every conclusion I came to.

Walking away has given me something that no winning ticket or successful trade ever consistently provided: peace. I still love sports. I still watch fights. I still follow markets. I still enjoy thinking about investing and writing about ideas. The difference is that I no longer need my emotional state to fluctuate with outcomes I can’t possibly control.

---

QTR’s Disclaimer: Please read my full legal disclaimer on my About page here. This post represents my opinions only. In addition, please understand I am an idiot and often get things wrong and lose money. I may own or transact in any names mentioned in this piece at any time without warning. Contributor posts and aggregated posts have been hand selected by me, have not been fact checked and are the opinions of their authors. They are either submitted to QTR by their author, reprinted under a Creative Commons license with my best effort to uphold what the license asks, or with the permission of the author.

This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any stocks or securities, just my opinions. I often lose money on positions I trade/invest in. I may add any name mentioned in this article and sell any name mentioned in this piece at any time, without further warning. None of this is a solicitation to buy or sell securities. I may or may not own names I write about and are watching. Sometimes I’m bullish without owning things, sometimes I’m bearish and do own things. Just assume my positions could be exactly the opposite of what you think they are just in case. If I’m long I could quickly be short and vice versa. I won’t update my positions.

As of May 20, 2026 I personally no longer actively trade (read my story here). My investing/saving is done by recurring contributions mostly to sector ETFs and a few select equities, trusted third parties who oversee my accounts, and advisors. Such advisors or funds, through individual equities, options, index funds, mutual funds, ETFs, or other securities, may have positions in, exposure to, or holdings of names mentioned herein that I know nothing about. Basically, via index funds, ETFs and individual equities it is possible I could own, have exposure to, or not own anything at any point. As of the same date, May 20, 2026, in an attempt to lead a healthier lifestyle, I’ve also excluded myself from fantasy sports, sports betting, online and in-person casinos and prediction markets.

And all positions can change immediately as soon as I publish this, with or without notice and at any point I can be long, short or neutral on any position. You are on your own. Do not make decisions based on my blog. I exist on the fringe. If you see numbers and calculations of any sort, assume they are wrong and double check them. I failed Algebra in 8th grade and topped off my high school math accolades by getting a D- in remedial Calculus my senior year, before becoming an English major in college so I could bullshit my way through things easier.

The publisher does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided in this page. These are not the opinions of any of my employers, partners, or associates. I did my best to be honest about my disclosures but can’t guarantee I am right; I write these posts after a couple beers sometimes. I edit after my posts are published because I’m impatient and lazy, so if you see a typo, check back in a half hour. Also, I just straight up get shit wrong a lot. I mention it twice because it’s that important.

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/13/2026 - 06:30

Nuclear Fuel Leader Centrus 'At A Discount' As Structural Uranium Enrichment Deficit Looms; Needham

Needham analyst Carter Goman published a report on Centrus Energy (NYSE: LEU), reaffirming a Buy rating while cutting the price target to $264 from $314. 

Recently trading around $171, the shares have lagged the broader markets year-to-date, presenting what Goman views as an attractive entry point for investors seeking exposure to the domestic enrichment leader.

Goman attributes the underperformance primarily to a “focus on capital expenditures for the planned Piketon capacity and normalized economics relative to established enrichment competitors Urenco and Orano, in addition to skepticism around timelines for new nuclear
build”. 

He leaves the core financial estimates largely unchanged but adjusts the target to reflect a mark-to-market on the cost of capital for the first-of-a-kind (FOAK) Piketon project.

The bullish investment thesis is underscored by Centrus' strategic positioning. As the only US-domiciled enricher, and the sole Western producer with demonstrated high-assay low-enriched uranium (HALEU) capability, Centrus is poised to anchor the rebuilding of America's nuclear fuel cycle. 

Russian supply is phasing out under the 2024 Prohibiting Russian Uranium Imports Act, LEU markets are tightening, and HALEU demand from small modular and advanced reactors is set to ramp. With a credible path to at least 3.5 million separative work units (SWU) of capacity, the company is transitioning from a trading-exposed LEU broker into a vertically integrated, high-margin strategic asset.

Goman emphasizes a $3.9 billion backlog as of 1Q26, extending out to 2040 and offering long-dated visibility. The LEU segment accounts for the bulk ($3.1 billion), including $2.4 billion in previously contingent commercial commitments from South Korea tied to future Piketon production that are now 100% under definitive agreements. 

The Technical Solutions segment backlog contributes another $800 million. 

Federal support provides a critical foundation. Earlier this year, the Department of Energy (DOE) announced a $900 million task order to American Centrifuge Operating (a Centrus wholly-owned subsidiary) under the HALEU Production Contract. The company finally signed the contract earlier this month, with the award value surpassing $1 billion.

Goman notes that Centrus likely has access to “access to multiple potential sources of no / low-cost capital”, including possible National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) involvement, foreign direct investment, and third-party funding.

On the cost side, FOAK economics at Piketon will inevitably exceed Nth-of-a-kind (NOAK) benchmarks at mature foreign facilities. However, Goman points out initiatives like the Palantir partnership announced in 1Q26 have already identified approximately $300 million in potential savings through AI-driven optimization of project controls, manufacturing, and supply chain.

Goman's report also provides some context for the global enrichment market. Global SWU demand hovers around 54 million annually, with supply highly concentrated among a handful of state-influenced players: 

• TENEX (Russia) 43% share
• Urenco (Germany, UK, Netherlands) 29%
• Orano (France) 12%
• CNEIC (China) 15%

In the US, annual consumption is roughly 15 million SWU, but domestic production has been limited with only 4.3 million SWU from Urenco's New Mexico plant. The remainder relied on imports, with Russia previously supplying a sizable chunk before the import ban.

Goman outlines a structural deficit emerging as Russian volumes exit and demand grows. The Nuclear Energy Institute has flagged ~8.1 GW of potential incremental generation from uprates, restarts, and extensions. Government-backed plans for 10 new Westinghouse reactors could add substantial initial and ongoing SWU needs.

When combined with the Russian ban, this creates a meaningful "call" on domestic capacity exceeding 6.5 million SWU annually before advanced reactor and national-security demand. Spot SWU prices have surged above $200, reflecting limited uncommitted global supply and long lead times (5-10 years) for new capacity. Goman expects pricing to remain structurally elevated, supporting both legacy trading margins and future enrichment returns.

Urenco is expanding its U.S. footprint (targeting over 7 million SWU eventually), and Orano has their NRC review underway for a new facility. Centrus' AC100 centrifuge technology, NRC license through 2037, and existing Piketon site advantages provide a meaningful moat, especially for national-security applications where US-origin tech is mandated. HALEU represents additional upside as the majority of the reactors under the various DOE programs require it.

Goman's valuation framework assumes: 

• 3.5 million SWU initial facility (with ~25% HALEU mix over time)
• ~$7 billion cumulative CapEx
• $250/SWU long-term pricing
• 50% enrichment margins
• 10% discount rate
• 15x terminal multiple on FY35 EBITDA

Upside could come from accelerated federal support, manufacturing efficiencies at the Oak Ridge center, higher SWU prices, or faster HALEU commercialization. Downside risks include FOAK execution/cost overruns, funding delays, TENEX supply volatility through 2027, and potential equity dilution.
 

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/13/2026 - 05:45

Britain Bets On Hydropower To Boost Energy Security

Authored by Felicity Bradstock via OilPrice.com,

• Britain has provisionally approved three major pumped storage hydropower projects in Scotland, the first of their kind in more than 40 years.

• Pumped storage facilities will act as large-scale energy storage systems, helping balance intermittent wind and solar generation.

• The projects are expected to improve energy security, reduce reliance on imported fossil fuels, and support the U.K.'s decarbonisation strategy.

After years of neglect, the United Kingdom has big plans for hydropower as part of broader plans for a green transition. The government is supporting the development of three large-scale hydro-storage projects as part of its plans to diversify the U.K. energy mix, support a green transition, and boost energy security.

Hydropower is one of the oldest and largest sources of renewable energy. It works by converting the energy of running water into electricity. Many hydropower projects rely on reservoirs created by dams to store large quantities of water and produce electricity as needed. Meanwhile, hydropower plants without reservoirs are typically called run-of-river power plants. In these types of facilities, production is controlled by the amount of water flowing past at any given time. Just four countries – China, Brazil, Canada, and the United States – produce roughly half of the world’s hydroelectricity.

The U.K. has been producing electricity from hydropower projects since the 1800s, and the energy source now contributes around 2 per cent of the country’s electricity generation. Two-thirds of hydropower-generated electricity is produced during the winter months. There are almost 1,700 hydropower schemes across the U.K. with an installed capacity of around 2 GW.

As part of plans for a green transition, the U.K. is expected to invest heavily in hydropower in the coming years. In October 2024, the U.K. government announced a new policy to promote investment in Long Duration Energy Storage (LDES) as part of the country’s decarbonisation plans.

The global demand for energy storage has risen dramatically in recent years, as many countries shift to less stable renewable energy sources to produce low-carbon power. LDES, also known as pumped hydropower storage (PHS), is a type of hydroelectric energy storage. It works by using two reservoirs at different heights to generate power by moving water from one to the other (discharging) as it passes through a turbine. The water can also be pumped back up to the higher reservoir (recharging) during off-peak electricity hours for reuse during peak demand. The system effectively functions as a massive battery, storing power for release as required.

The U.K. government aims to diversify the country’s energy mix to reduce reliance on fossil fuels and help strengthen energy security. Having invested heavily in intermittent clean energy sources, such as wind and solar power generation, it is looking to other energy sources, including hydro and geothermal power, to fill the gap.

There are currently four PSH schemes in the U.K., all of which were funded publicly from the 1960s to the 1980s to store overnight nuclear generation. By 2025, 11 PSH were under development across the U.K., with an expected combined power storage capacity of more than 10 GW and 200 GWh, or 25 per cent of the country’s power demand, once completed. A study from Imperial College London suggests that just 4.5 GW of new PHS with 90 GWh of storage could save up to £690 million a year in energy system costs by 2050. 

Last month, the U.K. energy regulator provisionally greenlit the first major new hydropower projects in over four decades, as part of plans to reduce the U.K.’s dependence on energy imports, in response to ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and severe disruptions to energy supply chains. Three new PHS power stations will be developed in Northern Scotland, using the region’s famous lochs to supply hydropower, pending final approval.

Statera Energy’s Loch Kemp project will use water from Loch Ness, while SSE’s Coire Glas project will rely on water from Loch Lochy, which is situated between Fort William and Inverness. Meanwhile, Gilkes Energy’s Earba project, expected to be the U.K.’s largest pumped storage hydro facility, will pump water from both Loch Leamhain and Loch Earba.

The three projects are expected to be completed by the early 2030s and will be the first PHS power projects since the Dinorwig hydropower plant was completed in north Wales in 1984. Dinorwig, also known colloquially as the “electric mountain”, can generate enough electricity to power nearly 2 million homes in a matter of seconds.

The U.K. Energy Minister, Michael Shanks, stated, “Forty years after the country’s last pumped storage facility, this government is getting Britain building again. The lesson from the conflict in Iran is clear: Britain cannot afford to remain at the mercy of volatile fossil fuel markets and leave families exposed to the next price shock.”

The new hydropower projects are expected to enhance the reliability of Britain’s renewable energy and help the country reduce dependence on fossil fuels once and for all. They will help reduce reliance on energy imports, support the government’s goals for a green transition, and enhance energy security through diversification. PHS projects also provide an alternative to lithium-ion battery storage, helping reduce imports of raw materials and batteries from China.

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/13/2026 - 05:00

Ukraine Prime Minister's Shock Resignation Marks Start Of Broader Zelensky Cabinet Reshuffle

Ukrainian President Zelensky is undertaking a dramatic cabinet reshuffle, at a moment Kiev sees itself as having military momentum against Russia with its non-stop drone assaults on Russian energy sites.

The country's Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko has confirmed Sunday her shock resignation, which has come as a major surprise to many lawmakers and unleashed speculation about what's behind it. She has held the office since July 2025, and helped spearhead major reconstruction funding deals with the United States and Europe.

US Treasury image

Svyrydenko announced on social media she was "proud to have had the honor of leading the government during one of the most difficult periods in Ukraine’s modern history."

She further described that she discussed "next steps" with Zelensky but without providing any details. "I remain ready to serve the Ukrainian state and carry out every task aimed at strengthening Ukraine’s position, defending our national interests and bringing a just peace closer," she said.

According to a backgrounder on Svyrydenko:

Svyrydenko, Ukraine’s former economy minister, was named prime minister in July 2025 at the age of 39 after playing a lead role in securing a mineral agreement between Ukraine and the U.S., seen as an important way of tying U.S. interests to Ukraine’s security.

...He also said he had offered Svyrydenko the opportunity to lead “a new, important area” in Ukraine’s relations with a key international partner.

One unnamed Ukrainian lawmaker conceded to national media that "It's a strange situation" given that "Cabinet resignations are generally a last resort."

The official continued, "They're usually something you would expect in the fall, when the political season begins, and people expect some political changes, since there are no elections."

"Maybe there are some extraordinary reasons for the reshuffle... It looks like a preemptive move," the person added, while expressing that lawmakers sees no obvious reason behind the prime minister's removal.

Zelensky in a statement suggested a broader government overhaul is underway. "Ukraine is changing its political strategy."

Refusing to have an election but has announced more shake ups than the election he has had.

— бенедикт//Benedikt (@BenediktSuarez) July 12, 2026

"The Cabinet of Ministers needs to be renewed," Zelensky said. "Each priority area of foreign policy will be assigned to a specific person with substantial experience who is capable of implementing what we agree on at the leaders’ level and what the Ukrainian people expect," he described further of an impending reshuffle. Who is next on the chopping block?

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/13/2026 - 04:15

The Big Lie: France Urged To Embrace Robotics Over Immigration

Via Remix News,

French political figure Éric Zemmour is arguing that robotics represents the true economic future of France, offering a technological solution to labor shortages in factories and farms rather than relying on mass immigration.

“Robotics is the economic future of France. Robots will provide our factories and our farmers with the arms they are missing. France can choose technology rather than migratory submersion through work. For an eternal, powerful, and sovereign France in modernity: more robots, fewer immigrants,” wrote Zemmour on X.

Zemmour’s post directly references an interview conducted by French outlet Le Journal du Dimanche with Éric Marchiol, Renault’s director of industrial metaverse and quality.

In the interview, Marchiol detailed Renault’s development of Calvin, a new humanoid robot created in partnership with French company Wandercraft. Designed for industrial environments, Calvin is compact, capable of handling heavy loads of up to 40 kilograms (88 pounds), and adaptable to real factory conditions — such as navigating uneven packaging or small steps on assembly lines.

Renault already operates around 11,000 traditional industrial robots and 8,000 autonomous guided vehicles. The Calvin robot represents the next generation: more flexible, intelligent, and space-efficient than older fixed-arm systems. The company is testing it for repetitive, physically demanding tasks like tire handling on fast-moving production lines.

Marchiol emphasized that robotization is essential for competitiveness: “Without automation and without robotization, there is no more competitive industry.” He noted France currently has about 190 robots per 10,000 workers — significantly behind China at 380 and Germany.

The goal, he said, is to deploy these humanoid robots widely across Renault and its suppliers within the next four to five years, targeting difficult-to-fill, physically strenuous jobs.

Robots over mass immigration

As Remix News has extensively reported over the last years, automation, robotics, and now artificial intelligence are increasingly seen as the primary solution to labor shortages, and mass immigration may even hinder the development of these technologies. Western employers, instead of developing this groundbreaking technology to work in factories and agriculture, are often still relying on human labor promised to them by Western liberal leaders. Often, this human labor comes with enormous welfare and cultural assimilation costs.

Zemmour, like many others, is pointing to this automation drive as the real solution to labor shortages. He wrote that Renault’s initiative as proof that France can solve its industrial labor gaps through innovation instead of large-scale immigration.

Remix News has run a series entitled “the big immigration lie” detailing the shift in thinking on immigration, with the Asian countries serving as the main counter example to Europe’s present course of open borders. Instead of embracing cheap labor and millions of culturally alien immigrants, Asian countries like Japan, China, South Korea, and Taiwan have focused on their native populations and implementing harsh immigration restrictions.

These Asians countries now lead in many areas over Europe, including AI, robotics, renewable energies, electric cars, and automation technology in factories.

Larry Fink, the CEO of BlackRock and arguably one of the most powerful men on the planet, openly said last year that the countries with xenophobic immigration policies are going to have a higher standard of living, faster productivity growth, and will be better able to accommodate the social impact of artificial intelligence advances over the coming years.

“You know, we always used to think shrinking population is a cause for negative growth. But in my conversations with the leadership of these large developed countries that have xenophobic immigration policies, they don’t allow anybody to come in, shrinking unemployment, excuse me, shrinking demographics. These countries will rapidly develop robotics and AI and technology. And if the promise, I didn’t say it’s going to happen, but as a promise of all that transforms productivity, which most of us think it will, we’ll be able to elevate the standard of living of countries and the standard of living of individuals even with shrinking populations,” said Fink.

“And so the paradigm of negative population growth is going to be changing. And the social problems that one will have in substituting humans for machines is going to be far easier in those countries that have declining populations,” he said.

When Fink talks about xenophobic countries, he is talking about countries like South Korea, China, and Japan, where robotics and AI are being used to deal with the demographic situation instead of mass immigration. 

Read more here...

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/13/2026 - 03:30

How Global Population Growth Is Slowing

According to UN calculations, the world's population will cross the 10-billion mark in 2061.

However, as Statista's Katharina Buchholz reports, by the end of the century, this number will have started to decline slightly, having reached a high around 10.3 billion in 2084. Leading up to this reversal, the growth of the global populace has actually been slowing down for decades, as seen in numbers by the UN Population Division. The organization celebrated World Population Day on Saturday.

You will find more infographics at Statista

While the above figures are according to the UN's medium scenario of moderate fertility, a case where global birth rates sink even more drastically would result in a reversal of population growth already around the early 2060s, at a high of just under 10 billion people on Earth.

This would result in a world population around 9 billion again by the end of the century.

Some academics believe that a global population decline at an even faster rate is possible. According to an widely cited article in medical journal The Lancet published in 2020, the world population is expected at 8.8 billion in 2100, comparable to the UN's low-fertility scenario. In case of rapid global development, the reseachers believe it could be as low as 6.3 billion by that time.

The number of people in the world exceeded 8 billion for the first time on November 15, 2022, according to UN calculations.

This was more than three times as many as in 1950. The rapid growth of the past was due to the gradual increase in life expectancy as a result of improvements in healthcare, nutrition, personal hygiene and medicine. It was also the result of high and consistent birth rates in some countries, for example China and India.

At present, the country adding most people to the world population is still India, while African countries like the Central African Republic, Chad and Somalia have the highest birth rates.

By contrast, the list of countries with the fastest population decline is dominated by eastern and southeastern European states, which have to contend with high emigration figures due to the wage and development gap with western Europe as well as falling birth rates.

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/13/2026 - 02:45

NATO's Last Stand?

Authored by Matthew Andersson via AmericanThinker.com,

Critics may be misreading the recent NATO summit.  

It looks to them as if the U.S. is unilaterally siding with Europe against Russia.  

President Trump is smarter: he knows who has the winning hand, and his direct communications with his peers, Xi and Putin, are not always public. 

President Trump's earliest critical instincts toward the EU and NATO still hold. While the U.S. is currently extending them some diplomatic courtesy and limited support, Europe is ultimately surrounded on all sides by powers that make it irrelevant in global influence terms.  Europe has put itself into this predicament, due to its own domestic economic decline from bad policy choices.  It is using war as a way to revive its fortunes.  Its odds are long. 

The EU is surrounded economically by the U.S. to the west; by Russia and China to the east, by a vast Arctic territory to the north that it cannot control, and by India and a rising Middle East power, Israel, to the south. Europe has no strategic maneuvering room. It has limited prospects to reemerge as a serious power, and NATO is long past relevancy, and solvency.  

Since his first term, President Trump has been right about Russia, and NATO.  

Being “right” means understanding Russia’s long-term economic and trade importance, and appreciating its military prowess. Along with China and the U.S., it makes up the superpower triad. Being right also means he understands that the days are numbered for the EU and NATO, and that the world has changed without them.

After the Anchorage meeting with President Trump, President Putin invited his counterpart to Moscow: Trump's guarded reply was a reminder that productive relations may be welcome by both leaders, but each is also operating in and surrounded by a complex defense and foreign affairs tradition that doesn’t trust the other side.  Some have called this the “crucible of belief,” and past experience is hard to overcome. Change will happen slowly. 

Europe is part of that shared Eurasian landmass, and its security, but “Europe” is not a unified, single country.  Even within its own limited Western sphere, it has been a region constantly engaged in rivalry and war.  There was a period after Napoleon — roughly a hundred years — where relative peace was enjoyed.  But the 20th century has been just the opposite: a nearly unbroken chain of war — regional, revolutionary, world, and cold — and now, a new 21st century war is increasingly seen as inevitable.

There are many political, social, and institutional explanations, but economic decline is at the heart of why the EU is determined to provoke Russia (and why it is pleading before the U.S.).

If Germany, France and the U.K. were strongly led, however, with robust domestic industrial growth, controlled borders via immigration, and with less external energy dependence, if not facing domestic energy bankruptcy, such a conflict would not be necessary, or given any serious consideration. 

In recent history, one only has to review Angela Merkel’s disastrous “green energy” policy, deindustrialization, open borders, and the idling of German nuclear power, as a strong explanation.  She fell completely for naive progressive ideology which asserts that oil no longer matters.  

But for President Trump, the U.S. was going down the same path.

France and the U.K. are just as bad in their string of weak leaders, uncontrolled borders, domestic violence from cultures foreign to their own, and deindustrialization and outsourcing. It is little wonder that Europe’s “leaders” are now economically trapped, and are turning to war as a desperate form of economic recovery.

NATO’s putative head, Mark Rutte, was recently in the White House, pitching for war and U.S. financial backing, with slides and charts that looked more like a failed business recovery plan.  The old saying “be careful what you ask for” may be relevant, as NATO is functioning as a proxy for Western Europe, and looking to the U.S. as its pre-bankruptcy sponsor.  President Trump has seen this before.

There are obviously many other interests and players driving this strategy, but German-French-British decline may be the largest factor. Scandinavia is somewhat immune, especially Norway with its natural resources and capital, but it is susceptible to European political and policy contamination. 

Economic historian Walt Rostow, a White House national security advisor to U.S. presidents Eisenhower, Kennedy and Johnson, provided a powerful economic model that goes a long way to partly explain why Eurasia, and Europe, have always been unstable and in conflict.  His “The Stages of Economic Growth: A Non-Communist Manifesto,” maps how countries grow in relative stages of maturity.

But it also predicts how countries will turn to war when those stages are challenged, interrupted, or allowed through poor leadership, or state interference, to stagnate or backslide. Europe has slid backwards from an advanced industrial and colonial power, to an effective open border welfare state, led by a weak political class with no plans, ideas, commitment, or national loyalties.

Russia’s Kremlin has recently announced that its Special Military Operation in Ukraine has been converted to formal war.  While predicting its development is problematic, Russia's power advantage is so overwhelming that NATO can only been seen as engaging in effective suicide.  Given Europe’s cultural tendency to existentialist gloom, perhaps it is understandable.

When war finally stops, as it must, it usually results in new borders, relationships, alliances, and deals being formed.  NATO and Europe seem to be counting on the chaos of war as a path out of their own weakness.

The U.S. may lend some technical military support to them as a simple matter of arms sales, but this may be their own self-inflicted, poisoned chalice. 

And in the end, the U.S., Russia, and China will simply resume their global dominance and power alliance. The EU will likely collapse or shrink; NATO will finally be decommissioned, and the old Atlantic Alliance will bypass Europe and align economically with Eurasia’s east and south — because that is where the power is.  

That is what the stages of growth predict.

The EU is also going to be further eclipsed commercially and militarily and by a rising Israel-dominated Middle East, because they know what they want, they have a plan, and they know how to fight.  European bureaucrats like Rutte, Macron, Merz, and von der Leyen do not, and face an interesting fate when they finally realize that this battle is likely their last political stand.

The citizens of Europe may be relieved. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/13/2026 - 02:00

Muslims, Marxists, And Mayhem In Minnesota

Authored by Eric Utter via AmericanThinker.com,

Many have been asking lately if the onslaught of Islam or the rapid rise of Marxism is more likely to destroy the United States.

The correct answer is that they both have the capability to do so.

If unchecked, together they will undoubtedly see to our demise.

Which one would ultimately prevail has been the subject of a few articles of late and will be the subject of one of mine in the not-too-distant future.

This one, however, will focus on Muslims and Islam. I will attempt to address the advance of the Democratic Socialists of America/Marxism/communism in the coming days, as well.

First off, it should not need to be said (yet again) that Islam and Sharia law are utterly, irretrievably incompatible with a free democratic republic, let alone a country founded on Christian principles and the Judeo-Christian work ethic.

Islam demands the subjugation of all non-Muslims, or “infidels.” Virtually all the nations of the Middle East and part of Asia that are now Muslim were once Christian. There is a reason for that. And it is not peaceful, logical, rational persuasion. The simple, inarguable historical fact is that, whenever Muslim populations swell in a given country, that country is almost certainly fated to be ruled by the dictates of the Quran. This is a virtual certainty unless “good” Christians (and others) find it in themselves to fight back. (And, at some point, one has to ask how “good, decent and moral” is a person who lets his family, neighbors, and nation be usurped by those who are O.K. with child rape and who worship violence and death.)

And then there is the staggering fraud. It appears that much of the money local, state, and federal governments extract from hard-working taxpayers is subsequently stolen, much of it by Somali fraudsters.

This is over and above the mind-blowing amounts of free stuff bestowed on illegal aliens, many of whom are Muslim.

Contemptible asshats like Govs. Gavin “Slick” Newsom and “Tampon” Timmy Walz pretend to disapprove of this unprecedented and illegal transfer of wealth from citizens to “undocumented immigrants,” even as they foster and cover for it.

And they are both still in office. Sad and incredible.

So New York City Mayor Mamdani‘s wife flies off to an Islamic retreat on the island of Mallorca on July 3rd, the day before America’s 250th birthday celebration, and one of his top officials made plans to meet with Iran’s ambassador and permanent representative to the United Nations without informing anyone, a meeting called off after the State Department got wind of it.

The People’s Republic of Minnesota sports the highest Somali population in the nation, one buttressed by scams of almost unimaginable magnitude.

From the Feeding Our Future scam to countless childless daycares to sham trucking companies, autism centers, and home health care firms, this state sports more than one town nicknamed “Little Mogadishu.”

One of those cities, St. Cloud, hosted a Somalia Independence Day celebration on July 3rd, during which a U.S. flag was flown upside down on a city flagpole.

Event organizers outlandishly claimed that it was an accident, unintentional, a mistake. Sure. Not one of the event organizers, 500-plus attendees, local politicians, or members of organizations such as the AFL-CIO and the absurdly named Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party (DFL), who had booths at the festive extravaganza, noticed the “error?” The folks who slowly ran Old Glory up the pole never noticed that it was inverted? Right. And Dr. Fauci was entirely unaware of the gain-of function research at the Wuhan Lab.

Speaking of New Somalia Minnesota, which has already changed its flag, apparently to honor its countless Somali Muslim “refugees,” an increasing number of kids in ever-growing Somali youth gangs are expressing their appreciation for all the state has done to welcome and care for them by shooting some of its residents.

Ramsey County Sheriff Bob Fletcher said that there have been more than 100 Somali gang-related shootings in just the past two years. Predictably, this fact prompted far-left Democratic Minneapolis City Council vice president Jamal Osman to state: “Somali youth deserve investment, dignity, opportunity, and respect — not public officials using their platform to stereotype them.” Shockingly, Osman himself is a Somali immigrant. I mean, so they shot a few people. They’re just rambunctious kids. Cut them some slack! Right?

If the stupefying immigrant fraud and attendant violence isn’t reined in by “authorities,” fewer and fewer people will keep playing by the rules. Understandably. Societal collapse will shortly ensue.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Sun, 07/12/2026 - 23:20

Women Over 40 Are Now Having More Babies Than American Teenagers

Americans are increasingly reaching major life milestones later than previous generations, and parenthood is no exception.

While overall U.S. fertility rates have fallen for decades, births among women over 40 are moving in the opposite direction. Rising education levels, delayed marriage, and high housing costs have all contributed to a growing share of women waiting longer to have children.

Using newly published research based on National Vital Statistics System data, this map, via Visual Capitalist's Dorothy Neufeld, shows where births among women ages 40–49 are most common across the country.

Births After 40 Are Growing Nationwide

For the first time, women over 40 are having more babies than teenagers. Since 1990, the share of U.S. births to women 40 and older has more than tripled, reaching 4.3% in 2025, while birth rates among women ages 40–49 rose 24% over the past decade.

The table below highlights where births among women ages 40–49 were most common in 2024. Washington, D.C., recorded the highest rate in the nation at 13.6 births per 1,000 women, followed by New York, New Jersey, and Hawaii.

State Births per 1,000 Women
2015 (Ages 40-49) Births per 1,000 Women
2024 (Ages 40-49) % Change District of Columbia 13.1 13.6 4% New York 8.3 10.5 27% New Jersey 7.4 9.8 32% Hawaii 8.6 9.7 13% California 8.4 9.6 14% Maryland 7.0 9.2 31% Massachusetts 6.9 9.0 30% Connecticut 6.0 8.5 42% Virginia 6.3 8.0 27% Delaware 5.0 7.8 56% Alaska 5.8 7.7 33% Washington 6.4 7.6 19% Florida 5.8 7.5 29% Colorado 6.1 7.3 20% Minnesota 5.5 7.3 33% Rhode Island 5.2 7.2 38% Illinois 6.0 6.9 15% Texas 5.9 6.8 15% Georgia 5.3 6.5 23% Nebraska 5.5 6.5 18% Nevada 6.0 6.5 8% Utah 6.4 6.5 2% Pennsylvania 4.7 6.4 36% Oregon 5.8 6.3 9% Vermont 3.7 6.3 70% North Carolina 4.6 6.2 35% Arizona 5.7 6.1 7% Idaho 5.2 6.1 17% New Hampshire 4.2 6.0 43% South Dakota 4.8 5.8 21% Maine 3.5 5.7 63% North Dakota 4.5 5.7 27% South Carolina 4.1 5.7 39% Wisconsin 4.3 5.6 30% Tennessee 3.8 5.5 45% Indiana 4.0 5.4 35% Kansas 4.6 5.4 17% Iowa 4.0 5.3 33% Michigan 4.2 5.3 26% Montana 4.9 5.3 8% Ohio 4.0 5.2 30% New Mexico 4.3 5.1 19% Louisiana 3.9 5.0 28% Missouri 3.7 4.9 32% Kentucky 3.4 4.6 35% Alabama 3.1 4.5 45% Oklahoma 4.0 4.5 13% Wyoming 4.4 4.5 2% Arkansas 3.3 4.3 30% Mississippi 2.8 3.8 36% West Virginia 2.9 3.3 14% 🇺🇸 U.S. Average 5.8 7.2 24%

Many of the highest-ranking states are both highly educated and expensive, with steep housing costs increasingly delaying homeownership and parenthood.

By contrast, Southern states account for seven of the 10 lowest birth rates among women in their 40s, including West Virginia, Mississippi, and Arkansas. Still, most have seen double-digit growth since 2015, highlighting how later parenthood is rising even in lower-rate states.

How Education Is Reshaping America’s Birth Rates

The average age of first-time mothers reached a record 27.5 years in 2023, rising from 21 in 1972.

Compared with previous decades, Americans are also spending more years in higher education. With more time spent attaining degrees and advancing their careers, women are increasingly deferring childbirth into their 30s and 40s.

Researchers have also found that older parents often bring greater financial resources. Studies suggest that children of older mothers perform better on math and behavioral assessments, largely due to higher levels of parental education and income rather than age itself.

Later Parenthood Is Becoming More Visible

Births after 40 remain uncommon compared with women in their 20s or 30s. Yet their rapid growth highlights how much the timeline of adulthood has changed.

Previous generations often married, purchased homes, and started families in their 20s. Today, many Americans spend longer pursuing education, building careers, and saving for housing before reaching those milestones.

As those timelines shift, later parenthood is becoming a more visible part of the American family landscape.

To learn more about this topic, check out this graphic on the cost of raising a child in every state.

Tyler Durden Sun, 07/12/2026 - 22:45

Obamacare Premiums Likely To Rise In 2027, Analysts Say

Authored by Lawrence Wilson via The Epoch Times,

Affordable Care Act premiums rose sharply in 2026 and are likely to continue to do so in 2027, based on early rate change filings by some insurers.

A pedestrian walks past an insurance agency that offers Affordable Care Act plans, in Miami on Jan. 28, 2021. Joe Raedle/Getty Images

Of the 77 insurers whose proposed rates are now publicly available, the median proposed premium increase is 14 percent, according to a July 8 report by health information group Peterson-KFF Health System Tracker.

The primary reason given for the proposed rate hikes is that the insured population under the Affordable Care Act - former President Barack Obama's health care law, known as Obamacare - is likely to be smaller and sicker than this year's.

Enrollment in the program dropped by about 3 million this year, and the report estimates that healthier people were more likely to withdraw from the program.

Some experts say that the fall-off in participation was driven by the fall-off of fraudulent enrollments or of participants who had been enrolled unknowingly.

This would be the fifth consecutive year of premium increases in the program. Last year's median proposed change was 18 percent. The final median change was 20 percent, according to the report.

The benchmark silver premium, which is used to set subsidy rates, increased by about 25 percent in 2026, according to KFF.

Initial premium rates for 2027 were filed in mid-June and will be finalized by Aug. 12, according to the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services.

The Peterson-KFF analysis was based on 77 plans across 17 jurisdictions.

Those were Connecticut, the District of Columbia, Hawaii, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, Texas, Vermont, and Washington. However, only partial data were available for Hawaii, Illinois, and Texas.

For 2026, 183 health plan issuers are participating in Obamacare, according to the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services.

Despite the expiration of the enhanced subsidies, the vast majority (87 percent) of 2026 Obamacare enrollees receive an advance premium tax credit, according to the Healthcare Financial Management Association.

The average enrollee who gets a federal subsidy receives a $650 credit, leaving a $96 monthly premium, according to data provided by KFF.

Subsidies are available to Americans with a household income of between 100 percent and 400 percent of the federal poverty level. That equates to about $15,600 to $62,600 for an individual or about $32,200 to $128,600 for a family of four.

Current Obamacare enrollment is about 19.2 million - the highest for any year except 2025.

Georgetown University's Center on Health Insurance Reforms published a similar preliminary analysis of 2027 rates on June 18. That report forecasted an enrollment decline of 17 percent to 26 percent in the individual market.

The Georgetown report estimates rate hikes ranging from about 7 percent in Vermont to about 22 percent in Washington.

Final rates for Obamacare plans will be posted in October. Open enrollment begins on Nov. 1.

Tyler Durden Sun, 07/12/2026 - 22:10

US Unleashes More Attack Waves On Iran As Trump Boasts 'We Bombed The Hell Out Of Them'; 5th Fleet Navy HQ Reportedly Struck

update(2210ET): The Pentagon has confirmed late in the day Sunday that US forces have continues launching more strikes on Iran throughout the day, describing that the latest wave of strikes are aimed to "degrade Iran's ability to attack civilian mariners."

US Central Command has been providing more frequent updates throughout the day, as the conflict intensifies. "At 5 p.m. ET today, U.S. Central Command forces began launching more strikes against Iran to continue degrading their ability to attack civilian mariners and commercial ships freely transiting the Strait of Hormuz," it stated. "The Commander in Chief has directed the strikes to hold Iranian forces accountable." According to some emerging targeting info:

• Direct hits reported on US Navy's 5th Fleet HQ in Bahrain: WSN and Noor News
• Explosion reported at US bases in Kuwait: Tasnim
• Explosions have also been heard in Iran’s Qeshm Island as well as Jask, state TV is reporting.
• Iran’s state TV is reporting explosions near Sirik and west of Bandar Abbas.
• CNN: Within past hour, IRGC fired at commercial shipping
• Trump was on NBC’s Meet the Press a few hours ago, and described Saturday’s US strikes on the Iranian military by saying, “We bombed the hell out of them.”

And more of the latest from Trump:

Also Sunday, President Donald Trump told NBC’s “Meet the Press” that the strait was open to commercial traffic.

“It’s open. We bombed the hell out of them last night. They’re very, very evil and sick people,” Trump said. He said that the Iranians agreed to “a perfect deal for us” the day prior — “no nuclear, no this, no that, no nothing. They gave up everything.”

“And then after that, they left the room. And then within an hour, they launched a drone at a ship,” Trump said.

US Navy 5th Fleet headquarters in Bahrain reported struck by Iranian ballistic missiles this weekend:

Smoke can be seen rising over the (mostly abandoned) US 5th Fleet headquarters in Bahrain after this morning's Iranian missile attack. pic.twitter.com/Qux9Xi3pvo

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) July 12, 2026

In the meantime The Washington Post has on Sunday issued an investigative report from the opening days of the war. Washington Post on Sunday is reporting that six Americans were killed in an Iranian drone attack on Kuwait during the second day of sustained exchanges of fire, on March 1st. Military sources cited in WaPo allege this was after American military commanders failed to act on warnings that the targeted facility was vulnerable. The emerging details point toward a severe failure of operational oversight:

Exclusive: Six soldiers died on day two of the Iran war in a drone strike on Port Shuaiba, Kuwait. Dozens more were wounded, some seriously.

It's one of the war's costliest attacks for U.S. personnel — and survivors fear no one will be held accountable. https://t.co/jBXpUs3bZz

— The Washington Post (@washingtonpost) July 12, 2026

Update 1210ET. 

The escalation cycle intensified overnight and into early Sunday as the US conducted its third round of strikes this week, while Iran enforced its declared closure of the Strait of Hormuz and launched retaliatory attacks across multiple Gulf states.

CENTCOM confirmed strikes began around 7:15 p.m. ET Saturday night, hitting approximately 140 Iranian military targets. These focused on degrading IRGC capabilities to threaten commercial shipping, including radars, missile/drone sites, launch systems, and coastal assets. Explosions were widely reported in southern and eastern Iran, with state media noting activity in Bandar Abbas, Sirik, Qeshm, Bushehr, Asalouyeh, Jask (10+ blasts), Minab, and other areas. Some unconfirmed reports indicated strikes reached farther north toward Tehran, with Iranian air defenses active over the capital.

A massive plume of smoke can be seen rising from Qeshm Island following heavy U.S. airstrikes.

According to Axios, missile and air defense systems as well as IRGC speedboats were targeted in the attack. https://t.co/8Svlz532Rh pic.twitter.com/E8Efuvboq5

— MoloMonitor 🇮🇹 (@MoloWarMonitor) July 12, 2026

The immediate trigger was the IRGC attack on the Cyprus-flagged container ship M/V GFS Galaxy in the Strait of Hormuz. The vessel suffered significant engine-room damage and fire; the crew abandoned ship in lifeboats, with one civilian crew member reported missing. Iran described it as a "warning shot" on an unauthorized route.

Iranian Response And Hormuz Closure

The IRGC declared the Strait of Hormuz closed "until further notice" and until the end of "American interventions." Tehran framed its actions as defensive and retaliatory, launching ballistic missiles and drones at US-linked targets in Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, Jordan (including Muwaffaq Salti Airbase), and Oman.

Footage shows a massive plume of smoke following the impact of multiple Iranian ballistic missiles in Kuwait.

According to my sources, the target of this attack are U.S. HIMARS ground-based missile systems, which were used last night against southern Iran. pic.twitter.com/34SS1psjZM

— MoloMonitor 🇮🇹 (@MoloWarMonitor) July 12, 2026

Reports noted multiple salvos, with some impacts claimed at Jordanian facilities housing US assets (e.g., potential F-35 hangars). Gulf states reported interceptions and minor damage in places.

Wow

🇯🇴 Prince Hassan Air Base in Jordan appears to have suffered major damage from Iranian strikes

Today’s satellite imagery shows a destroyed hangar and major ground disturbances across the apron, likely where US drones were housed. It also appears the runway was directly hit. https://t.co/GRTTx89cN3 pic.twitter.com/Q8K0S2ikAo

— Egypt's Intel Observer (@EGYOSINT) July 12, 2026 Leadership And Diplomatic Context

President Trump and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth emphasized accountability, with statements underscoring that violations would carry costs. On the Iranian side, Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei reiterated calls for revenge, tying them to national sentiment following the funeral observances for his father. The June Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) appears effectively suspended, with both sides accusing the other of bad faith. Qatari-mediated contacts continue but show no breakthrough, as Iran insists the US must first fulfill commitments on Hormuz transit and oil exports.

This round represents the most significant breach of the fragile ceasefire to date, with risks to global energy flows heightened by the Hormuz closure. Oil prices remain volatile amid the uncertainty. Casualty figures from the latest strikes are still emerging (Iranian reports cite deaths and injuries), and the situation continues to evolve rapidly. Further monitoring of CENTCOM, IRGC statements, and regional air defense activity is critical, as both sides signal readiness for sustained pressure while leaving narrow diplomatic off-ramps.

* * *

Update 10:40pm ET.

Somewhat predictably, as has been the pattern of this war - Iran is in the very early morning hours (local) launching retaliatory strikes on Arab Gulf nations, or as the Iranians say against US assets and bases in the Gulf. Per state media:

IRAN LAUNCHES SERIES OF STRIKES AGAINST US TARGETS: PRESS TV

Last week Kuwait and Bahrain were favored targets, but there are signs that Iran - now with reports of Tehran having been hit tonight (CBS) - could begin widening its attacks to include the UAE, or even potentially the Saudis (though there have yet to be signs of this). 

What's clear is that things are back to square one - with the MoU agreement clearly effectively dead, unless diplomacy gets into overdrive and both sides show some measure of restraint. But restraint is not evident currently, only a widening up the escalation ladder.

Iran has fired 12 Ballisitc Missiles towards Muwaffaq Salti Airbase in Jordan

Reports of 3 impacts.

The reason they aimed there could be for the F-35s parked there. We shall see. I was expecting them to aim for Bahrain or Kuwait. pic.twitter.com/zfYEJmTW3a

— Ryan Rozbiani (@RyanRozbiani) July 12, 2026

To recount from where we started Saturday morning, we wrote...

As for the big picture of where things stand, University of Chicago political scientist Robert Pape, who authors "The Escalation Trap," has pointed out that that the millions of Iranians who took to the streets last week to attend the late Ayatollah's funeral demonstrate growing nationalist resolve. He explained that this only makes further escalation more likely later this summer, as public sentiment gets hardened against the US.

"The balance of military capabilities did not change over the weekend," Pape said. "The balance of political will shifted."

Referencing the now unraveling ceasefire and negotiations process, Pape is predicting: "The pause appears to be another stage in the escalation process rather than the beginning of de-escalation." 

*  *  *

Update 8:40pm ET.

At 7:15pm ET, the US launched its third round of strikes on Iran this week after Tehran declared that it’s closing the Strait of Hormuz “until further notice", and Iranian forces attacked a Cyprus-flagged container ship, the M/V GFS Galaxy, transiting the Strait of Hormuz. 

US Central Command said that President Donald Trump ordered the fresh strikes, which targeted Iran’s ability to attack commercial vessels, after the latest Iranian attack on the Hormuz-crossing vessel. Central Command said a civilian crew member is missing and the ship was unable to continue its journey after suffering significant damage.

At 7:15 p.m. ET today, U.S. Central Command forces began launching the third round of strikes this week against Iran after Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps forces blatantly attacked M/V GFS Galaxy, a Cyprus-flagged container ship transiting the Strait of Hormuz. A civilian crew…

— U.S. Central Command (@CENTCOM) July 11, 2026

Shortly after the Iran’s state-run media reported explosions at multiple areas along the country’s southern coasts, including the energy and petrochemical hubs of Bushehr and Asalouyeh. Blasts were also reported at the port cities of Bandar Abbas and Bandar-e Dayyer, as well as the Sirik area near the Strait of Hormuz.

BREAKING: The IRNA news agency says more than 10 explosions have been heard in the port city of Jask in the southern Hormozgan province.

🔴 LIVE updates: https://t.co/sfnZg9WSSH pic.twitter.com/FAzm8nC9ou

— Al Jazeera English (@AJEnglish) July 12, 2026

According to unconfirmed reports, the US strikes on Iran have reached all the way north to the Capital of Iran, Tehran as the US goes "full scale from bases in Kuwait and Bahrain."

CBS Reports the Strikes on Iran have reached the Capital of Iran, Tehran

The U.S. is going FULL SCALE from the bases in Kuwait and Bahrain.

Iran's air force is in the air and air defenses are active over TEHRAN pic.twitter.com/S0c6DWz9dE

— Ryan Rozbiani (@RyanRozbiani) July 12, 2026

“Iran made a poor choice,” Pentagon chief Pete Hegseth said on social media. “Now they pay.”

Iran made a poor choice. Now they pay. https://t.co/8m4fEfgrXv

— Pete Hegseth (@PeteHegseth) July 11, 2026

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced the Hormuz closure, saying it won’t allow any vessels to pass through until foreign interference ends, according to state-run IRIB News. The IRGC said it halted a cargo ship after firing a warning shot because it tried to transit the strait on Saturday despite being told not to, the outlet added.

The developments cast significant doubts over the potential for talks aimed at trying to reach a more lasting peace deal. The rhetoric had been getting more heated on both sides in recent days even as the two parties had suggested there was still room for conversations. 

Reports from Iran of heavy new U.S. airstrikes in a Bandar Abbas, Bushehr nuclear facility, Minab, Qeshm, and several other locations pic.twitter.com/k2zK9N5pOm

— Emily Schrader - אמילי שריידר امیلی شریدر (@emilykschrader) July 11, 2026

Earlier on Saturday, Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi traveled to Oman on Saturday for talks on the future of Hormuz, but there was no sign of involvement by senior US envoys. Also Earlier, Iran demanded that the US implement key commitments under a recent deal before more talks take place, rejecting Trump’s contention that negotiations could continue without a ceasefire. Tehran said Washington must meet Iran’s conditions for resolving transit issues through the Strait of Hormuz and normalizing its oil exports.

On Friday Trump threatened to shower Iran with “1000 Missiles” if it acted on a threat to kill the US leader, “in this case, ME!”

The US had also demanded that Iran publicly declare all channels of the Hormuz open to shipping and pledge not to attack civilian vessels transiting the waterway. Tehran would face consequences if it fails to deliver the public assurance, senior Trump administration officials told reporters. Those demands followed several days of US airstrikes and Iranian retaliation that sent oil prices higher this week. 

The Islamic Republic is holding a three-day memorial ceremony for the late Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, following a days-long funeral that drew large crowds to cities in Iran and neighboring Iraq. Khamenei was killed in an attack as the US and Israel began their war on Iran at the end of February.

His son and successor, Mojtaba Khamenei, on Saturday called for revenge for the killing of his father.

“It is our certain and undeniable duty that this revenge be carried out,” he said in a post on X.

Earlier

Iran has thrown Trump's ultimatum and Saturday deadline right back at Washington, saying that instead it is the United States that must first meet the agreed-upon conditions in order to normalize shipping and energy transit in the Strait of Hormuz.

Fars news agency reports Saturday that Iranian leadership is demanding that the US implement "agreed-upon understandings" before any talks take place. While the White House has declared the ceasefire to be 'over' - it has also indicated ongoing contacts and talks with Iran via mediators. But this appears to have been reduced to simple ultimatums being shuttled between capitals by Qatari mediators. There are no actual sit-down talks on the horizon after two rounds of fresh tit-for-tat attacks broke out this past week.

The memorandum of understanding (MoU) itself is barely alive at this point, also with Iran's ambassador to the United Nations, Amir-Saeid Iravani, separately announcing that Tehran could stop honoring the MoU if US attacks continue. 

"Should the United States continue to violate its obligations under the MoU, Iran will no longer be bound to fulfil its obligations under the MoU," Iravani told reporters at UN headquarters.

But he did make clear that Iran is still committed to the agreement "provided that the United States fully and faithfully complies with its own obligations."

President Trump has meanwhile continued to issue his own warnings and threats. He said Friday that the US military would "completely decimate" Iran if its leaders attempted or carried out his assassination. He took it a step further in an overnight Truth Social Post, saying he has 1,000 missiles "locked and loaded" - aimed at Iran - should he be targeted by Tehran's agents.

Strangely, the US President signed off with his puzzling "praise be to Allah!" reference - perhaps mockingly or sarcastically.

Meanwhile, Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei still hasn't been seen in public after the Feb.28 US-Israeli airstrikes took out his father, killed members of his family, and reportedly badly wounded him. Mojtaba is said to be observing a private memorial for his slain father, and made no known appearance at the week-long funeral processions and burial.

But on Saturday he did call for revenge in a rare public message. "It is our certain and undeniable duty that this revenge be carried out," he said.

"We pledge to avenge your pure blood and the blood of all the martyrs of these two [recent] wars by taking revenge against the criminal, disgraceful murderers," the Ayatollah also stated. "This vengeance is what our nation is demanding, and this must definitely be done."

He issued a series of statements tinged with Shia Islamic references. His words contain repeat vows to enacting vengeance, including this not so veiled threat to kill Iran's enemies: 

The criminal, disgraceful murderers of the martyred Leader, whose names are fully documented from the highest to the lowest ranks, will carry their dream of a peaceful death in bed to the grave.

— Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei (@MKhamenei_ir) July 11, 2026

As for the big picture of where things stand, University of Chicago political scientist Robert Pape, who authors "The Escalation Trap," has pointed out that that the millions of Iranians who took to the streets last week to attend the late Ayatollah's funeral demonstrate growing nationalist resolve. He explained that this only makes further escalation more likely later this summer, as public sentiment gets hardened against the US.

"The balance of military capabilities did not change over the weekend," Pape said. "The balance of political will shifted."

Referencing the now unraveling ceasefire and negotiations process, Pape is predicting: "The pause appears to be another stage in the escalation process rather than the beginning of de-escalation." 

Tyler Durden Sun, 07/12/2026 - 22:10

Hedge Fund CIO: "We Haven't Yet Diffused AI Across The Economy To The Degree That It Can Be Useful"

By Eric Peters, CIO of One River Asset Management

“President Putin said, ‘I would love to meet Zelensky in Moscow.’ And I said, ‘I don't think...you know, I have to put myself in his position. I don’t know that he’d go to Moscow,” said Trump, seated next to Zelensky in the Oval Office, the two of them discussing Russia’s war on Ukraine. “Maybe he would. Would you go to Moscow?” Trump asked Zelensky, putting him on the spot, cameras snapping away. “It’s difficult. There are a lot of Ukrainian drones there,” answered Zelensky, unable to suppress a smile. “That’s right,” said Trump. “It’s dangerous,” laughed Zelensky.

Human beings really are the best. We can adapt to the sickest crap. And if we really can’t stop ourselves from killing one another, may as well start joking about it. Iran’s Larijani joked that the IRGC could take Trump out with a micro-drone while sunbathing at Mar-a-Lago. Trump told Fox News that it’s been a long time since he’s been sunbathing, “Maybe I was around 7 or so. I’m not too big into it.”

It wasn’t long ago that the Iran war seemed like a big deal. It used to be that killing heads of state was taboo. And I can remember when people thought closing Hormuz would spark a global depression. Russia’s biggest industrialist, Andrey Melnichenko, warned of the potential for a horrifying outcome if Russia continues down its self-destructive path. I’m pretty sure he was hinting that Putin might use a tactical nuclear weapon if backed into a corner.

I first saw a philosophical justification for a preemptive tactical nuke strike 2mths ago [here]. Apparently, now that humans have adapted to the doctrine of mutually assured destruction, our thermonuclear nukes have become a bit of a joke, because no one would dare ever use one. The VIX index naturally declined to 15. Which mechanically forces volatility-controlled investment strategies to take more risk. Lifting equity prices. Lowering volatility. Inviting volatility sellers. Just like every other late market cycle. After a while it honestly gets kind of funny. 

Artificial Intelligence+

To break dependence on Western technology and drive a new era of growth, in 2024 Beijing explicitly categorized its industrial focus into:

1. Six Future Industries (long-term, frontier technologies) and
2. Six Emerging Pillar Industries (near-term economic drivers).

Then in Aug 2025, Beijing formalized an “Artificial Intelligence+” initiative, which treats AI as foundational, cross-cutting tech - like electricity or infrastructure - rather than a standalone sector. The initiative emphasizes deep AI integration across The Sixes. 

The Six Future Industries are frontier technologies that Beijing seeks to establish first-mover advantage and dictate global standards over 10yrs. China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology established six broad overarching categories (Future Manufacturing, Information, Materials, Energy, Space, Health). These translate into six specific priorities: Embodied Artificial Intelligence, Brain-Computer Interfaces, Quantum Technology, Hydrogen & Nuclear Fusion Energy, Biomanufacturing, and 6G Mobile Communications. 

The Six Emerging Pillar Industries are to drive immediate, massive economic output.

• Integrated Circuits: domestic semiconductor manufacturing to bypass US export controls.
• Low-Altitude Economy: drones, flying cars, and infrastructure to manage low-altitude airspace.
• Intelligent Robots: automation hardware for factories/logistics.
• Aviation and Aerospace: commercial spaceflight, satellite networks, domestic commercial aircraft.
• Energy Storage: advanced battery tech to support the grid.
• Biomedicine: advanced pharmaceuticals and medical equipment.

Ten Basis Points:

“It’s going to be China or the US,” said the CIO, an American who built his firm in Asia, investing in equities, tech names, macro themes. “A European sovereign AI is a pipe dream – they think Mistral will be their LLM and they’ll build data centers? Really? How exactly?” he asked. “They need Nvidia. They need a tech stack that has emerged from American and Asian IP that combines to form these magical machines that you throw a model into.” To create intelligence. “And what happens to these nations that can’t afford tokens in the next few years? How do India and Brazil and all these second-tier companies even compete?”

“We’ve entered an era where the biggest of the big - Google, Microsoft, SpaceX, Tesla, even JP Morgan - will be accessing tokens in ways that is going to catapult their businesses ahead of everybody else,” continued the CIO. “This sort of faux debate over cheap open-source AI versus expensive Anthropic is nonsense. There’s a shortage of intelligence - pure and simple – we’re below ten basis points of market penetration in this stuff across the global economy, why are people even having a debate over this?”

“Given all the component shortages and constraints, and the anti-AI populist backlash, we could see a horrific market crash along the way, but we haven’t yet diffused this technology across the economy to the degree that it can be useful,” he continued. My Tesla drives me everywhere. I’m a super user, virtually alone. But in 10 years, no one will drive. “We have zero AI in  regulated processes within banks, healthcare companies and insurance companies because the errors and hallucination are being ironed out.” But they will be. “This could be the last great bull market in technology. What could eclipse superintelligence?” 

Anecdote:

“As we know the two principal players and their mentor, I take their words and actions as a serious roadmap,” said the CIO. We were discussing Bessent’s speech at the Economic Club of New York [here] and Warsh’s press conference following his first FOMC meeting [here]. “Much like the Chinese Communist Party 5-year plans, we’re glimpsing the future for American economic policy. Having watched the Chinese game the global trading system to the point that it broke leads me to believe it should be reassembled in Scott’s vision for something more equitable,” continued the CIO, an American who built his firm in Asia, investing in equities, tech, macro themes.

“AI competition with China is also central to this strategy. It’s possible that like Reagan spending Gorbachev into the ground, we could cause the Chinese system to hit the wall.” Interesting.

“Beijing’s national data center strategy is to build massive scale in token factories.” CXMT is their national DRAM champion and is about to IPO. Its disclosures reveal deep inefficiencies. Beijing will inevitably subsidize its losses. “Chinese open-source models are all the rage on Twitter. They’re not as good for complex thinking but very good at specific tasks and sub agent work. Therefore, as these models sit on US tech stacks, no Chinese innovator is making money - AWS makes the money for producing the token,” he said.

“Having already sunk massive amounts into EV, Solar, and other areas, one day the Chinese may well hit a wall, especially given they have yet to tackle their property sector.” The chronic decline in Chinese property prices has caused a depression in domestic consumption.

“If Scott’s strategy works and allied nations realize it’s better to play along then not, the Chinese export markets could become smaller precisely when they need them most. At the same time Taiwan, Singapore, Korea, and Hong Kong do stuff we need so we could work more diplomatically with them as they are no longer the Asian Tigers of our youth,” he said.

“Let’s see how it plays out but it’s fascinating and why guys like us stay in the game.”

Tyler Durden Sun, 07/12/2026 - 21:41

United States Retains Spot As World's Top Oil Producer

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times,

The United States was the largest crude oil producer in the world in 2025, outputting a “record-high” 13.6 million barrels per day (bpd), according to a July 9 statement from the Energy Information Administration (EIA).

America’s output was far ahead of second-placed Russia, which produced 9.9 million bpd. Saudi Arabia came in third with 9.6 million bpd, with Canada in the fourth spot at 5 million bpd. The difference in oil output between the United States and other top producers widened last year, with Russian supplies mostly remaining unchanged year-over-year while Saudi Arabia saw a modest increase.

The 13.6 million bpd output breaks the previous U.S. and global production record of 13.2 million bpd set in 2024. The United States first overtook Russia as the top global oil producer in 2018 and has since retained the number one spot.

EIA attributed the consistently high oil production in the United States to “continued gains in drilling productivity and operational efficiency across key shale basins, which allow operators to extract more oil per well.”

Powered by shale development, the United States has become not only the top crude oil producer “but the largest producer of crude oil ever,” the agency said.

In addition to record-high production last year, exports have been climbing. In April, U.S. exports of crude oil and petroleum products hit a record, with crude oil exports averaging 5.6 million bpd, 21 percent higher than the previous record from December 2023, the EIA said in a July 8 statement.

The exports of finished petroleum products, including jet fuel and motor gasoline, hit the highest level since December 2024.

The record-high exports in April 2026 came amid disruptions to energy shipments through the Strait of Hormuz due to the U.S.–Iran war, a development that ended up boosting global demand for American energy. Brent crude oil futures had hit a peak of over $126 per barrel in April. Prices have since come down and ended Friday at around $76.

In its latest statement, EIA said the jump in oil production last year happened despite oil prices being lower, with the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) price dropping from an average of $77 per barrel in 2024 to $65 per barrel in 2025. WTI is a benchmark for crude oil produced in the United States.

Moreover, EIA predicts America’s crude oil production to be close to 13.7 million bpd this year and to rise to 14.2 million bpd in 2027.

Boosting Oil Production

The higher oil output follows multiple actions taken by the Trump administration aimed at boosting production.

In November 2025, the administration announced the approval of new oil drilling leases off the coasts of Alaska, Florida, and California.

In January this year, the administration initiated the first step to offering oil and gas drilling leases in California, with the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management seeking information on potential lease areas to auction as early as next year.

In March, the Department of the Interior conducted an oil lease sale in the National Petroleum Reserve–Alaska, the first since 2019.

This action came under criticism from the environmental group Sierra Club. Mike Scott, Sierra Club’s oil and gas campaign manager, in a March 18 statement, accused President Donald Trump of making oil corporation CEOs richer at the cost of the environment.

“The Western Arctic is not just any landscape—it’s one of the last true wild places in the country, home to rare and threatened wildlife and cultures that have subsisted on the land for thousands of years,” Scott said.

“Drilling in the Arctic won’t solve our energy crisis, but it will cause irreversible damage to these pristine landscapes. Big Oil has been champing at the bit to get its hands on these lands, and Trump is making their wishes come true.”

Secretary of the Interior Doug Burgum had said, post the lease sale in Alaska, that the sale underscored the reserve’s vital role in strengthening America’s energy security.

The reserve “was created to support our nation’s energy needs, and this successful sale demonstrates what’s possible when we align responsible development with that original purpose,” Burgum said. “Revenues from these leases will help bolster local communities, create good‑paying jobs, and ensure that Alaska continues to be a cornerstone of America’s domestic energy production.”

Meanwhile, the U.S. Department of Justice has decided to ditch the oil and gas leasing restrictions imposed by the prior administration in the Coastal Plain of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge. Alaska and its industrial development and export authority had filed lawsuits challenging the restrictions.

On July 7, the department said that these restrictions violated federal law and asked the court to dismiss the lawsuits.

U.S. acting Attorney General Todd Blanche said that the prior administration’s actions “improperly limited” Alaska’s energy potential through “unreasonable” regulations. “This settlement supports the Trump administration’s commitment to secure American energy independence and our national security for generations to come.”

Tyler Durden Sun, 07/12/2026 - 21:00

These Are The States Driving America's Economic Growth

The U.S. economy grew 2.1% in real terms in 2025, but that national figure tells only part of the story. While every state economy expanded, some grew nearly ten times faster than others.

Using the latest data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), this map, via Visual Capitalist's Gabriel Cohen, compares real GDP growth across all 50 states and Washington, D.C.

The Sun Belt Ascendant

No states grew more in 2025 than Florida and South Carolina, which both expanded by 3.1%. Their strong growth rates reflect the continued economic momentum of the American South and the broader Sun Belt.

Arkansas (2.2%), North Carolina (2.7%), and Texas (2.5%) also performed better than the national average.

This data table ranks U.S. states based on their 2025 real GDP growth, measuring the change in overall economic output after adjusting for inflation.

 

Both the Southeast and Southwest regions grew by an average of 2.3% in 2025. Increasingly, these Sun Belt regions have benefited from favorable corporate tax regimes and lower costs of living relative to more traditional growth hubs such as the Northeast and Far West.

 

Population growth has also become an important driver of the region’s economic expansion. Lower housing costs in many markets, business-friendly tax policies, and continued migration from other parts of the country have supported stronger demand, investment, and job creation across much of the Sun Belt. Two-thirds of the fastest-growing cities in the U.S. are southern Sun Belt cities, often in Florida or Texas.

The Continued Strength of California and New York

However, strong growth was not limited to the South. California, the nation’s largest state economy, saw growth of 2.5%.

Despite record domestic migration outflows, the Golden State remains a major economic force with sustained, above-average growth. Similarly, New York registered 2.9% growth in real GDP in 2025, third-highest in the country.

Growth within these traditional heavyweights was powered by robust private investment and strong years for sectors such as technology, healthcare, finance, and professional services.

The Slowest Growth in the Nation

Nationwide, the slowest growth was registered in North Dakota (0.3%), followed by West Virginia and Wyoming at 0.5% each. No state’s GDP contracted in 2025, while Washington, D.C. saw just 0.4% annual growth.

At the regional level, the Plains (1.4%) and Great Lakes (1.7%) regions lagged the rest of the country. These regions were particularly hurt by downturns in agriculture and a manufacturing slump, both of which were impacted by trade disruptions.

Meanwhile, a record-long government shutdown in late 2025 also affected many local communities dependent on federal agricultural financing.

Wondering how these state-level growth patterns fit into the national picture? Check out OECD Cuts U.S. Growth Forecast Over Tariffs, Policy Uncertainty on Voronoi, the new app from Visual Capitalist.

Tyler Durden Sun, 07/12/2026 - 20:25

Oil Jumps, Futures Drop On Fresh Iran Strikes, Hormuz Confusion

Oil jumped and US equity futures fell after the US launched another round of strikes against Iran, while conflicting claims over the status of the Strait of Hormuz heightened uncertainty.

S&P 500 futures dropped 0.2% in early trading Monday after the cash index closed 0.4% higher on Friday.

WTI crude climbed 3% at the open, trading around $74, while the dollar rose against most major peers. 

Risk crept in after the US military launched several rounds of strikes in recent days, culminating with the latest barrage around 5pmET on Sunday aimed at further weakening Iran’s ability to strike civilian vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz, the US Central Command said. The latest action followed Iranian drone and missile attacks on US allies including Kuwait, Jordan and Qatar in response to earlier US strikes. 

At 5 p.m. ET today, U.S. Central Command forces began launching more strikes against Iran to continue degrading their ability to attack civilian mariners and commercial ships freely transiting the Strait of Hormuz. The Commander in Chief has directed the strikes to hold Iranian…

— U.S. Central Command (@CENTCOM) July 12, 2026

Confusion over the status of the Strait of Hormuz only added to the uncertainty, after Iran said it had closed the waterway while the US military and maritime authorities said shipping continued through its southern route. According to Axios, a US official said "around 20 commercial vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz in coordination with the US military over the last 24 hours, in addition to several vessels without US coordination."

“The latest developments over the weekend suggest markets may face a volatile start to trading which could test the glass half full mentality we have seen recently,” Nick Twidale, chief market analyst at AT Global Markets, wrote in a note to clients.

Besides a return to hostilities, investors are also bracing for a pivotal earnings season, with results from JPMorgan, BofA, Citi, Goldman and Wells all due Tuesday. According to Bloomberg, S&P 500 companies are expected to post a 24% jump in second-quarter profits, though the benchmark’s rally has become increasingly reliant on gains outside the technology megacaps that have driven markets in recent years.

In Europe, Deutsche Bank expects Stoxx 600 firms to report a 12% jump in second-quarter earnings, following a 7% rise in the first quarter. Profits for MSCI Asia Pacific constituents are estimated to rise 39%, up from 6.9% in the previous three months, largely driven by chip-exporting powerhouses such as Korea and Japan. 

The outlook is being tested by persistent inflation, higher energy prices and growing expectations the Federal Reserve may resume raising interest rates, threatening corporate margins. Just last week, several Fed officials warned that surging memory prices are rising core inflation, with Goldman calculating that the impact on core PCE by year-end will be +0.5% due to surging chip costs.

With US and global equities trading near record highs and valuations elevated, investors see little room for disappointing results.

Investors will also keep a close eye on this week's US CPI data, after oil’s biggest weekly gain since mid-May revived concerns that higher energy costs could further complicate the disinflation story. Consumer and producer price reports - the last inflation readings before the Fed meets later this month - will offer fresh clues on the path of interest rates.

Traders have ramped up bets on further tightening, with swaps pricing almost 40 basis points of Fed hikes by December, up from about 15 basis points in early June. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect both headline and core inflation to have eased slightly in June, though both are forecast to remain well above the Fed’s 2% target.  

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh will also make his first congressional appearance since taking the helm after pledging to scale back forward guidance on the rate outlook.

Tyler Durden Sun, 07/12/2026 - 20:20

US Men's World Cup Team Required To Split $12.8M Payout With Women's Team

Authored by Ben Sellers via Headline USA,

America’s fleeting interest in soccer may once again have abated following a humiliating World Cup defeat to Belgium last Monday, in a game that saw President Donald Trump become personally involved over a red-card dispute.

But the high-profile flop in the first elimination round was not the only indignity that the U.S. athletes must endure.

A collective bargaining agreement means that the team will have to share its $16 million prize pot (minus a 20% cut for the U.S. Men’s Soccer organization) with the U.S. women’s team.

“The remaining 80 percent is split evenly between the men’s and women’s player pools, meaning each team is set to receive $6.4 million from the USMNT’s run,” the New York Post reported.

That puts the estimated takeaway for each player on the two teams’ 26-man -person rosters at $246,153. However, since there is no finalized roster for the women’s team, which will vie for its fifth World Cup championship next year in Brazil, those payouts will remain in escrow for now.

The women’s success in the quadrennial tournament gave them extra leverage to demand the pay gap be closed after their 2019 championship title. By contrast, the men’s team has never won the tournament and last made it to the round of 16 in 2002.

But the men’s matches historically have drawn greater viewership. The loss to Belgium saw a U.S. television audience exceeding 45 million viewers, while the highest-rated women’s game, the 2015 World Cup final, saw the audience peak at just 26.7 million.

For winning the entire tournament in 2019, the women’s team received a total of $4 million from the $30 million overall that the league took in.

Despite the attempt at pay parity, critics such as The Spectator’s Melissa Chen noted that the agreement flies in the face of one of capitalism’s central tenets — the importance of market value.

The US men's national soccer team is being subjected to the same kind of legalized plunder that defines too many divorce proceedings in this country.

After grinding through qualifiers, earning their spot in the World Cup, and generating the massive FIFA payout that only the… https://t.co/ZnSJjDHcbD

— Melissa Chen (@MsMelChen) July 9, 2026

“It disincentivizes excellence on the men’s side (why push harder if your windfall gets redistributed?) and removes pressure on the women’s side to grow their own commercial appeal,” Chen wrote. “Like divorce settlements that trap high-earners in perpetual support roles, this policy treats men’s soccer as a piggy bank for ‘fairness,’ not a business rewarding what fans and sponsors actually value."

Tyler Durden Sun, 07/12/2026 - 19:50