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The Unfinished Revolution: When Rights Become Privileges

Zero Rss
2 months 3 weeks ago
The Unfinished Revolution: When Rights Become Privileges

Authored by John & Nisha Whitehead via The Rutherford Institute,

“What country can preserve its liberties if their rulers are not warned from time to time that their people preserve the spirit of resistance?”

- Thomas Jefferson

What exactly are Americans celebrating this Fourth of July?

Two hundred and fifty years after the Declaration of Independence proclaimed that all people possess inalienable rights, we now live under a government that increasingly behaves as though rights belong to the government to distribute, restrict and revoke as it sees fit.

Freedom has become conditional.

Equal justice under law has become selective.

Constitutional rights have become political bargaining chips.

Government now claims the authority to decide which religious beliefs deserve accommodation and which may be excluded—a clear violation of the First Amendment’s warning against both establishing a religion and favoring or disfavoring one religion over another.

It insists that some speakers deserve constitutional protection while others may be censored, surveilled or punished—a violation of the right to free speech.

It proclaims itself the defender of unborn life while dismantling programs that protect the health and welfare of children already born.

It welcomes some immigrants with extraordinary speed while denying others the full measure of due process promised by the Constitution.

It pays lip service to equality under law while dismantling programs designed to ensure equal opportunity and root out discrimination.

It invokes the sanctity of children while narrowing which children may claim the birthright citizenship guaranteed by the Fourteenth Amendment.

It insists that no one is above the law while expanding presidential immunity and removing many of the traditional checks on executive power.

None of these contradictions exists in isolation.

Together they reveal a dangerous shift in the relationship between the citizen and the state.

Rights that the Declaration of Independence described as inalienable are increasingly treated as permissions—granted when convenient, withheld when inconvenient, and interpreted according to political priorities rather than constitutional principle.

That is not merely bad policy.

It is a repudiation of the American Revolution, because the Revolution began with one radical claim: freedom is our birthright.

To listen to those in power, however, freedom is a privilege reserved for a select few: the politically favored, the ideologically acceptable, the obedient, the compliant, the useful.

The Declaration of Independence advanced a very different idea: that all people are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable rights.

That was the real revolution.

America’s founders may have disagreed—often grievously and hypocritically—about who qualified as “the people,” but they were united in one essential conviction: our rights do not come from government.

The government exists to serve us.

Government exists to safeguard and protect our inalienable rights—not ration them, redefine them or revoke them.

That distinction matters.

Once government is allowed to decide whose rights count, rights cease to be rights at all.

They become privileges.

And privileges can always be revoked.

For 250 years, Americans have treated the Declaration of Independence as the nation's birth certificate, but the Declaration was never merely a birth certificate—it was a warning label.

It was written by people who understood that freedom is fragile, power is relentless, and no generation remains free simply because an earlier generation fought for liberty.

The Declaration was not a celebration of government.

It was an indictment of government.

It catalogued the abuses of a ruler who had placed himself above the law, treated the people as subjects rather than sovereigns, undermined representative government, obstructed justice, maintained standing armies, imposed surveillance, abused power and waged war against the very people he claimed to govern.

The names have changed. The machinery has changed. The technology has changed.

The danger has not.

That is why the Constitution matters.

The Constitution translated the warnings of the Declaration into law.

Through separated powers, checks and balances, federalism, and a Bill of Rights, the founders sought to bind government down with what Thomas Jefferson called “the chains of the Constitution.”

James Madison understood that the greatest threat to liberty would not come from a foreign king but from our own government if left unchecked.

“If men were angels,” Madison famously observed, “no government would be necessary.”

Because those entrusted with power are not angels, the Constitution—especially the Bill of Rights—was designed to restrain it.

The Constitution assumes that power will seek to expand. That is why it divides power. That is why it checks power.

That is why it places certain freedoms beyond the reach of government majorities, executive decrees, judicial maneuvering and political convenience.

Yet those constitutional restraints are increasingly being loosened—not by formal amendment, but by precedent, emergency powers, executive practice, bureaucratic discretion and public indifference.

The warnings are no longer theoretical.

Even the judiciary has increasingly become part of that transformation.

Rather than serving as a reliable constitutional brake on concentrated power, the U.S. Supreme Court has repeatedly removed barriers that once restrained the executive branch: presidential immunity, limits on nationwide injunctions, and expanded presidential power to fire independent agency officials.

Each decision may be explained on its own legal reasoning. Together they tell a larger constitutional story: the presidency grows stronger, while the people’s ability to restrain it grows weaker.

In Trump v. United States, the Court declared that presidents enjoy sweeping immunity from criminal prosecution for official acts, placing many exercises of executive power beyond the reach of laws that govern every other citizen.

In Trump v. CASA, the Court curtailed the power of lower federal courts to issue nationwide injunctions, making it more difficult to halt unconstitutional executive actions before they take effect across the country.

In Trump v. Slaughter, the Court expanded presidential control over supposedly independent agencies by strengthening the president’s power to remove agency officials.

Even where the Court has reaffirmed constitutional protections—as it did in rejecting the Trump administration’s attempt to undermine birthright citizenship—it has still left intact a dangerous constitutional reality: executive overreach can move faster than meaningful accountability.

The founders would have recognized this danger immediately. They had just fought a revolution against concentrated executive power.

Tyranny today may no longer look like King George III, but it is no less dangerous when it arrives wrapped in the language of national security, public safety, emergency management, border control, religious liberty, law and order, governmental efficiency and executive necessity.

It promises protection while steadily expanding surveillance, policing, executive discretion and bureaucratic control. It wraps itself in flags. It quotes Scripture. It invokes patriotism. It salutes the troops.

It speaks the language of freedom while making freedom conditional on obedience.

Thomas Jefferson would have recognized the pattern.

If Jefferson were drafting the Declaration of Independence today, the list of grievances would look strikingly familiar.

Instead of protesting quartered soldiers, he would likely protest militarized police forces equipped like occupying armies.

Instead of denouncing general warrants, he would condemn dragnet surveillance, geofence searches, facial recognition technology and warrantless tracking capable of monitoring millions of innocent people.

Instead of objecting to arbitrary searches of homes and papers, he would confront a government that can peer into our phones, financial records, online communications, travel histories and biometric data with astonishing ease.

Instead of warning against standing armies, he would question a permanent national security apparatus that wages endless wars abroad while steadily importing the tactics of war into policing at home.

Instead of protesting taxation without representation, he might challenge an administrative state that increasingly governs through executive orders, emergency declarations and unelected bureaucracies insulated from meaningful public accountability.

Instead of condemning the obstruction of justice, he would confront a system in which courts too often defer to power, Congress too often abdicates its authority, and presidents increasingly insist they may act first and answer later—if they answer at all.

Instead of accusing a distant monarch of placing himself above the law, he would confront a constitutional system in which the presidency has become imperial, the bureaucracy has become unaccountable, the surveillance state has become omnipresent, and the citizen has been reduced to a suspect, a data point, a taxpayer, a voter, a consumer and, too often, a pawn.

The machinery of power has grown unimaginably more sophisticated, but the central question remains exactly the same: who governs—the people or the government itself?

This is why the Fourth of July matters.

It was never intended as a celebration of government power. It is a celebration of liberty and self-government—the moment ordinary people declared that no ruler, no legislature, no court and no army should ever become too powerful to challenge.

That is precisely the principle now being tested.

Nowhere has this inversion of constitutional government been more visible than under the Trump administration, where rights increasingly appear to depend not on constitutional principle but on political identity, ideological conformity and executive preference.

The danger is not simply that government power is expanding. It is that government is claiming the authority to decide who possesses constitutional rights and who does not.

Freedom of speech, but only for those whose speech government approves. Religious liberty, but only for the beliefs those in power favor. Due process, but only for the people government considers worthy. Equal protection, but only for the politically acceptable. Citizenship, but only for the babies government chooses to recognize. Accountability, but only for ordinary citizens and not for presidents cloaked in immunity.

This is how constitutional government is hollowed out.

Not all at once.

Not always with tanks in the streets.

Not always with a formal suspension of the Constitution.

Liberty rarely vanishes in one dramatic act. It recedes gradually—emergency by emergency, exception by exception, court ruling by court ruling, executive order by executive order, crisis by crisis.

It disappears when due process becomes optional, habeas corpus is treated as expendable, speech is chilled, surveillance becomes routine, government secrecy expands, religious freedom becomes selective, citizenship becomes negotiable, oversight bodies can be fired at will, and executive power grows while meaningful accountability contracts.

It disappears when “we the people” grow so accustomed to fusion centers, surveillance cameras, geofence warrants, AI-assisted policing, militarized SWAT raids, civil asset forfeiture, government watchlists, facial recognition systems, warrantless tracking, endless wars, executive decrees and perpetual states of emergency that constitutional government becomes little more than a ceremonial ideal.

The most dangerous lie of the modern police state is not that government possesses extraordinary powers—it is that those powers are necessary, permanent and beyond question.

Every emergency becomes justification for another exception. Every crisis becomes an opportunity to normalize another expansion of authority. Temporary measures become permanent institutions.

Extraordinary powers become ordinary tools of government. And while the machinery of control expands, the machinery of distraction conspires to keep us from focusing on the government’s self-serving corruption, power grabs and abuses.

Authoritarian regimes require a populace that is too distracted—by spectacle, by outrage, by entertainment, by partisan tribalism, by endless political theater, by what the Romans called bread and circuses, by what we might call militainment—to get outraged enough to do something about the theft of their liberties.

When so-called representatives of the people celebrate power more than liberty, spectacle more than substance, and obedience more than accountability, that is not patriotism. It is conditioning.

The founders understood the danger of that conditioning. They distrusted concentrated power, feared standing armies, insisted on constitutional restraint and placed sovereignty not in rulers but in the people.

They pledged allegiance not to personalities, parties or power, but to enduring ideals and principles.

The founders did not create freedom.

What they created was a constitutional framework designed to preserve it.

Whether that framework survives depends upon whether the American people continue using it.

As America approaches its 250th anniversary, the most important question is not whether the nation survived.

The real question is whether the principles that inspired the Revolution have survived as well.

Have we preserved the belief that government derives its just powers from the consent of the governed? Have we preserved the conviction that no one is above the law? Have we preserved the understanding that liberty requires eternal vigilance?

Or have we quietly accepted the idea that rights exist only at the pleasure of those in power?

If we truly wish to honor the spirit of 1776, we must restore the constitutional restraints that made liberty possible in the first place.

Bind the government, including the president, down with the chains of the Constitution.

James Madison understood that written constitutions alone cannot preserve liberty.

Rights written on paper become little more than “parchment barriers” unless the people insist that those limits be honored.

The Constitution cannot defend itself. Neither can freedom.

That was the lesson of independence.

It remains the warning of our time.

The unfinished work of the American Revolution was never about building a stronger government. It was about preserving a free people capable of restraining their government.

Two hundred and fifty years ago, Jefferson wrote that governments derive “their just powers from the consent of the governed.”

He did not write that governments derive their powers from fear. Or emergency. Or efficiency. Or surveillance. Or military strength. Or presidential immunity. Or partisan loyalty.

He wrote that governments exist to secure rights that already belong to the people.

The generation of 1776 pledged “their Lives, their Fortunes and their sacred Honor” because they understood that liberty would never preserve itself.

Our generation is unlikely to be asked to sign another Declaration of Independence.

But we are being asked something just as consequential: whether we will preserve the constitutional safeguards entrusted to us or quietly surrender them for the promise of security, efficiency and political victory.

Every generation inherits the Revolution unfinished.

Every generation must decide whether to continue its work—or abandon it.

As I make clear in Battlefield America: The War on the American People and its fictional counterpart The Erik Blair Diaries, freedom does not defend itself.

Thus, the question before us is no longer whether America has reached its 250th birthday. The question is whether Americans still believe what made that birthday worth celebrating in the first place.

Preserving that birthright is our responsibility.

The Constitution is not self-enforcing.

Courts will not always protect liberty. Congress will not always defend its authority. Presidents will rarely surrender power voluntarily.

Which leaves only one remaining guardian of constitutional government: We the people.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Sun, 07/05/2026 - 23:20
Tyler Durden

Trump: 'Netanyahu Knows Who The Boss Is' After Phone Call

Zero Rss
2 months 3 weeks ago
Trump: 'Netanyahu Knows Who The Boss Is' After Phone Call

President Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu could meet as early as next week after the US leader returns from the annual NATO summit in Ankara, Turkey.

That's what Trump told Axios on Saturday after a Friday phone call, wherein the Israeli PM congratulated the American leader on the 250th Independence Day of the United States. Trump said something very interesting in the wake of the call: "We get along very good. [Netanyahu] knows who the boss is," he told Axios.

via Reuters

US-Israel relations have been deeply strained of late, given deep Israeli reluctance on the US-Iran MoU signing, as well as the US-mediated ceasefire in Lebanon.

Israel fears that the end result to a hasty peace could be a nuclear-armed Iran, and some Israeli leaders have gone so far as to say military action must not stop until there's true regime change.

"During their conversation, the Prime Minister said that the United States is a guarantor of global freedom, and that Israel greatly values the close relationship between the two nations. Prime Minister Netanyahu and President Trump agreed to meet soon in the United States," Netanyahu's office said of the Saturday call.

On the issue of controversy over the US-Israel relationship and the push to launch Operation Epic Fury, Axios provides the following:

  • "Many of Trump's closest advisers think that Bibi was wrong about everything," a U.S. official said.
  • Trump lashed out at Netanyahu over Israel's escalation in Lebanon in a phone call last month, calling the prime minister "crazy" and accusing him of ingratitude.
  • The tensions have deepened a broader Republican schism over Israel and the war, with MAGA influencers like Tucker Carlson accusing Trump of being beholden to Netanyahu.

Indeed there seems of late a concerted White House effort to dispel this narrative. It seems that Trump is at least now more conscientious about it, given he's publicly seeking to assure Americans that Bibi "knows who the boss is."

A prior Trump-Bibi call in June didn't go so well. At that time reports based on US officials indicated that President Trump ripped into Netanyahu, cussing at him and the president essentially 'steamrolled' him - angry over breaking the Lebanon truce and demanding that Israel's military not attack Beirut.

Trump is said to have told Netanyahu "you’re fucking crazy’" while demanding Lebanon truce: "I’m saving your ass," he also reportedly said. Israeli officials have sought to downplay these negative reports...

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu dismissed reports of a growing rift with U.S. President Donald Trump, calling their relationship “excellent.”

Speaking to Fox News, Netanyahu said the two have occasional “tactical disagreements,” but added, “In 99% of cases we see eye…

— Open Source Intel (@Osint613) July 5, 2026

Since then, the US has essentially forced Israel to acknowledge the Lebanon ceasefire - though it should be noted that the IDF occupation has been allowed to continue in southern Lebanon - and direct exchanges of missile fire between Tehran and Tel Aviv has been silenced.

Tyler Durden Sun, 07/05/2026 - 22:45
Tyler Durden

Charlie Kirk Assassination Case Heads For Key Hearing

Zero Rss
2 months 3 weeks ago
Charlie Kirk Assassination Case Heads For Key Hearing

Authored by Janice Hisle via The Epoch Times,

After months of wrangling, the case of Charlie Kirk's alleged assassin, Tyler James Robinson, is now headed toward its first major legal threshold.

Tyler Robinson, accused of killing conservative commentator Charlie Kirk last year, appears during a hearing in Utah's Fourth District Court in Provo, Utah, on Dec. 11, 2025. Rick Egan/The Salt Lake Tribune via AP, Pool

Robinson, 23, is accused of fatally shooting Kirk, the 31-year-old founder of the conservative Turning Point USA youth movement, while Kirk spoke at Utah Valley University on Sept. 10, 2025.

During a four-day proceeding set to begin on July 6 in a Utah courtroom, prosecutors must reveal some of the evidence they have against Robinson.

This preliminary hearing requires the evidence to pass two key tests. And the judge overseeing the case has set strict rules for people who will be attending, including news crews.

Here is what to expect, based on general legal principles, Utah law, and rulings from Utah Fourth District Court Judge Tony Graf Jr.

Why The Hearing Matters

Not all U.S. criminal courts use a preliminary hearing to put evidence through an initial screening, but Utah courts do.

The hearing is like a "mini trial," which comes with advantages and disadvantages for both sides in a criminal case.

Prosecutors have already shared much evidence with Robinson's lawyers, as criminal law requires. But this hearing requires them to show their cards more specifically.

That will give defense lawyers a chance to poke holes in some of the evidence that prosecutors have against Robinson.

However, prosecutors have a wild card in their favor. At this hearing, they may present some evidence that would not be allowed during a trial.

In Utah, that evidence includes "reliable hearsay" testimony - statements that a witness heard someone else make. Usually, hearsay is forbidden, and witnesses must testify only about what they personally stated or observed.

The law requires prosecutors to present enough evidence to persuade Graf that they have "probable cause." That consists of two parts: First, they must provide sufficient proof that a reasonable person could conclude that the alleged crimes happened. Second, that evidence must show that the accused probably committed those offenses.

Open To The Public, With Restrictions

Members of the public and news reporters are allowed to attend the preliminary hearing, the judge ruled on June 1, despite objections from Robinson's lawyers. They wanted to close all or part of the hearing.

Instead, access will be granted, subject to limited seating and strict rules, the judge said. He gave a lengthy explanation of the rules on June 26.

The rules are necessary, he said, to ensure everyone's "safety and well-being" and to preserve fair trial rights for Robinson, as well as for Kirk's widow, Erika Kirk.

No one - except specified people - will be allowed to bring electronic devices to Graf's courtroom in Provo, Utah; he is also banning the devices from the entire fourth floor of that building, outside his courtroom.

People who are exempt from that rule include attorneys and their support staff, as well as media personnel who receive Graf's approval.

"In addition, every person who will be in attendance will be afforded the dignity and respect due to them," Graf said.

He cited an order he issued on Sept. 24, 2025, regarding courtroom decorum.

"All spectators shall be quiet, civil, and orderly," Graf said. "Spectators shall not engage in any distracting, disruptive, provocative, disrespectful, uncivil, or threatening behavior of any kind."

Further, he is forbidding attendees from making any gestures, including shaking or nodding heads to signal disagreement or agreement with statements.

No one is allowed "to wear or display pins, buttons, signs, clothing, or photographs expressing support for or against any person," Graf said.

"The court respectfully asks all persons seeking admission to conduct themselves in an orderly and respectful manner while court staff and security personnel carry out their responsibilities, including security screening and the assignment of wristbands for entry into the hearing," he said.

What Could Happen Next?

Because probable cause is considered a low bar to clear, it is rare for a case to fail at the preliminary hearing stage.

But if that does happen, the case probably would continue after a delay. Prosecutors would be allowed to add more evidence and refile the charges.

Most preliminary hearings end with the case being "bound over" for trial.

At trial, the standard of proof that prosecutors must meet is the highest in the criminal justice system. It is "beyond a reasonable doubt."

This standard requires "more certainty than any other burden of proof in law," according to Cornell Law School's Legal Information Institute.

Beyond a reasonable doubt does not mean beyond all imaginary doubt. It means that the judge or jury is "firmly convinced" that the defendant committed the alleged crimes.

If Robinson is convicted as charged, he could face the death penalty.

Graf on June 26 rejected defense lawyers' request to remove the death penalty as an option. However, he found prosecutors in contempt because they made statements about being able to clear the "reasonable doubt" hurdle.

To remedy that violation of his order prohibiting such an out-of-court statement, the judge said he will work with attorneys on both sides.

They will put together an extra detailed jury selection questionnaire, and a larger pool of potential jurors might need to be summoned, Graf said.

Tyler Durden Sun, 07/05/2026 - 22:10
Tyler Durden

Former Sen. Warren Staffer Attends Ayatollah's Funeral, Calls Him "Greatest Leader Of Our Lifetime"

Zero Rss
2 months 3 weeks ago
Former Sen. Warren Staffer Attends Ayatollah's Funeral, Calls Him "Greatest Leader Of Our Lifetime"

A former Democratic Party operative who worked on campaigns linked to prominent unhinged left-wing politicians such as Elizabeth Warren, Ed Markey, and others has become a case study in how far-left radicalization can influence those on the left, spiraling dangerously and leading to the open championing of leaders of foreign adversaries.

Calla Walsh began organizing for Democratic Senator Ed Markey while she was still a teenager. She had the perfect profile: earnest, idealistic, and a model Gen Z Democrat.

Former Elizabeth Warren staffer who called for the United States to be abolished as justice for Khamenei, attended his funeral and called him one of the greatest leaders of her lifetime pic.twitter.com/WSzpzcpd1R

— Libs of TikTok (@libsoftiktok) July 5, 2026

But, like many of her peers on the left, that idealism mutated into something darker - something Democrats are now concerned about as socialists and Islamists gain power in their party.

The latest Walsh episode shows the Gen Z Democrat on Iranian TV from Tehran during funeral ceremonies for slain Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, praising the late Iranian cleric as the "greatest anti-imperialist leader" of her lifetime.

"Ayatollah Khamenei was the greatest anti-imperialist leader to have lived during my lifetime," Walsh said.

Palestine Action US founder Calla Walsh attends Ayatollah Khamenei’s funeral and calls him the “greatest anti-Imperialist leader” in her lifetime.

This is the brainwashing going on in the far-left, making them to unite with Islamists and terrorists. pic.twitter.com/N5o0Z3Wrv4

— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) July 4, 2026

Walsh shared a message similar to that of the Democratic Socialists: "Death to America"...

She's American . She got paid to trave to Iran to say "death to America" in Kamenei's funeral in a terrible Persian accent!

This is the IR that @JDVance convinced America to negotiate with, ignoring the bloodshed in #IranMassacre‌. pic.twitter.com/QvP7OPGq0h

— Nazanin 🇮🇷 (@naz8nin) July 5, 2026

Walsh's message was also shared with attendees at the funeral.

"Death to America" chants rumble through IRAN! pic.twitter.com/Pub3pgCAEC

— Jackson Hinkle 🇺🇸 (@jacksonhinkle) July 4, 2026

Ahead of America's 250th birthday, Zohran Mamdani, the socialist mayor of New York City, denounced the nation: 

Socialist Mayor of New York City, Zohran Mamdani, just gave a speech on what he thinks it means to be an American on America’s 250th Birthday.

He attacked our nation as “an arena of supremacy” that “persecutes” and claimed ICE is “invading our streets”. pic.twitter.com/kyHY6TXHfi

— America (@america) July 3, 2026

And, of course, Hasan Piker, the unofficial DSA spokesperson, has called for his followers "to kill capitalists. Let the streets soak in their fucking red capitalist blood."

Hasan Piker calls on his followers to kill capitalists:

“Yeah kill them! KiII those motherfuckers and murder those motherfuckers in the streets. Let the streets soak in their fucking red capitalist blood, dude.”

Democrats are campaigning with him. pic.twitter.com/YiZxGgRkgc

— Eyal Yakoby (@EYakoby) April 9, 2026

The story presented here illustrates the emergence of a new Democratic Party.

BREAKING: Palestinian Aber Kawas has won her seat for NY State Senate.

She’s said 9/11 was America’s fault due to “capitalism, racism, white supremacy, and Islamophobia.”

Here she is waving a Hamas headband. pic.twitter.com/bJildloSjq

— Eyal Yakoby (@EYakoby) June 24, 2026

Party leaders are deeply concerned because anti-American rhetoric, denunciations of capitalism, and calls for revolution are not resonating with average voters and could harm Democrats as socialists gain influence ahead of the midterms.

Ted, we got answers below ... 

How is this possibly real? https://t.co/TODxgUHVjW

— Ted Cruz (@tedcruz) July 5, 2026

If you want to understand why the Democratic Party has become so radical and revolutionary, here are some answers:

  • Feds Nab Alleged Member Of "Sprawling" Cuban Communist Subversion Network Linked To Hasan Piker's Havana Trip
  • DOJ Grand Jury Probes Neville Roy Singham's Marxist NGO Empire: Report
  • "No Longer Tolerate Radical Marxists": Rubio Sanctions Revolutionary Cuban Influence Network Tied To U.S. Left-Wing NGOs
  • Is There A "Cuba Connection" Behind The Radicalization Of America's Nonprofit Left

Another Democrat has sounded the alarm on the party's far-left drift:

Governor Josh Shapiro (D-PA) says he does not support the socialist takeover of the Democratic Party and the beliefs they have

Josh Shapiro: “Our party has to have a battle over what we believe in.” pic.twitter.com/hTZEHgWpN6

— DSA Watch (@DSA_Watch) July 5, 2026

Related:

  • Troubling Pattern Of Left-Wing Revolutionaries Targeting "Capitalists" Raises Alarm Over Youth Radicalization

In response, the Trump administration has been testing the waters with anti-communist messaging. We suspect that messaging will only grow louder, as sane citizens on both sides of the political aisle can agree that communism is bad.

* * * Next-level Wagyu, now at ZeroHedge Store

Tyler Durden Sun, 07/05/2026 - 21:35
Tyler Durden

First $1 Billion, Now $50 Million: Khanna Says Wealth Tax "Must Not Stop At Billionaires"

Zero Rss
2 months 3 weeks ago
First $1 Billion, Now $50 Million: Khanna Says Wealth Tax "Must Not Stop At Billionaires"

Rep. Ro Khanna (D-CA) - fresh off endorsing California's November ballot measure to seize 5% of billionaire wealth - published a Substack essay Wednesday titled, no really, "Why I Support a Billionaire Wealth Tax."

He makes it roughly a dozen paragraphs before explaining that it isn't one.

"The tax should not stop at billionaires, it must reach centimillionaires," Khanna writes, before spelling out exactly what that means: every fortune of $50 million and up, hit with a 2% federal levy on wealth above that line - every year, forever, on top of everything else you already pay. The vehicle is Elizabeth Warren's Ultra-Millionaire Tax Act, which Khanna notes he has cosponsored every single year it's been introduced.

And before anyone reaches for the estate planner: Khanna wants the levy to pierce irrevocable trusts, with the tax billed to the grantor who set them up - because parking a fortune in a trust, in his telling, shouldn't take it off the government's books.

Former Microsoft executive Steven Sinofsky summed up the reveal in eight words: "Just like that, no longer a billionaires tax."

Just like that, no longer a billionaires tax. https://t.co/05wt4D9WX6 pic.twitter.com/xgA0vpnK6w

— Steven Sinofsky (@stevesi) July 3, 2026

Pirate Wires' Mike Solana was less diplomatic, characterizing the scheme as an annual asset seizure in which the government tallies everything you own and demands a cut on top of your existing tax bill - now openly targeting anyone worth $50 million. His prediction for where the ratchet stops: "this ends with your 401k."

khanna's 'billionaire wealth tax,' which is not a tax but an asset seizure in which he tallies everything you own, then demands a percentage *on top* of what you're taxed — every single year — is already targeting anyone worth $50 million or more. this ends with your 401k. https://t.co/jt7VtK1j4w pic.twitter.com/IH9vxcBxKG

— Mike Solana (@micsolana) July 3, 2026

For those keeping score at home, the threshold discourse has traveled a long way in a short time:

The measure headed to California voters in November is a one-time 5% tax on the state's roughly 250 billionaires. Newsom, opposing it, countered on June 26 with a national "billionaires' tax" - which, in its original form, applied to anyone worth $100 million or more, language that was quietly scrubbed after multiple outlets quoted it as we reported. Six days later, Khanna planted the flag at $50 million.

None of this is exactly new, of course. The Warren bill has carried the $50 million line since she rolled it out in 2019, and Biden's 2022 "Billionaire Minimum Income Tax" kicked in at $100 million households. The branding always says billionaire, but the fine print ios a slippery slope.

Then there's inflation... The bill's $50 million threshold is a flat statutory number that hasn't moved since 2019 - meaning inflation has already quietly cut the real threshold by more than a fifth. The creep shows up in the sponsors' own math: when the bill debuted, backers said it touched the top 0.05% of American households; the 2026 reintroduction, per the same Saez-Zucman analysis the sponsors tout, now reaches 260,000 households - the top 0.15%. Same words, triple the coverage, five years. Asset inflation does the broadening automatically. Congress just has to sit still.

The escalator, meanwhile, is pre-drafted: buried in the bill is a provision doubling the top rate to 6% automatically in any year that qualifying trigger legislation is on the books. 

And anyone curious where a "normalized" wealth tax eventually settles can consult the countries that already normalized one. Norway's kicks in around $160,000 of net worth. The Netherlands taxes deemed returns on assets above roughly €57,000. Swiss cantons start in the low six figures. The European wealth taxes that stayed rich-only - France, Sweden, Germany, Austria, Denmark - were repealed as revenue duds. The ones that survived did so by reaching the middle class. The slippery slope is quite literally the only way these things 'work.' 

Khanna spends a portion of the essay taking intramural shots at Newsom, dismissing the governor's version as an income tax billionaires will never feel - since they take no salary, borrow against their stock, and pass fortunes to their kids without selling a share - while boasting that he and Bernie Sanders tax the wealth itself, to the tune of a claimed $4.4 trillion.

The replies were not kind. Christopher Rufo suggested Washington recover the estimated half-trillion dollars a year lost to fraud before inventing new revenue streams. The most-liked response, from James Hafner, noted that the essay's "philosophical case" never actually argues its one load-bearing premise - that one man's need constitutes a claim on another man's property. "There is arithmetic, and there is need," Hafner wrote of the piece's actual contents.

Khanna's comeback - asking Hafner what he thinks of property taxes - was promptly ratioed, sitting at 135 replies to 11 likes at press time.

Except - property taxes are local, visible, and appealable; they pay for the pothole crew, the 2 a.m. patrol car, and the school down the street - and when assessments outran paychecks, voters famously revolted and capped them. Khanna's essay actually frames the California fight as Proposition 13 in reverse, which is a remarkable self-own: he's marketing the sequel to a movie that ended in a taxpayer revolt, triggered by precisely the dynamic critics warn about - paper valuations rising faster than the cash available to pay the levy.

The federal version offers none of the offsetting virtues. The Ultra-Millionaire Tax deposits into the general fund; the child-care-and-community-college wish list lives in the press release, not the bill text. What the bill text does contain is enforcement - just not of the spending. It orders the IRS to audit at least 30% of everyone subject to the tax, every single year. It hands the agency expanded authority to assign values to private businesses, farmland, art, and anything else that's hard to price. It wires in FATCA-style third-party reporting. And should you decide you've had enough of the annual appraisal and leave, it imposes a 40% exit tax on net worth above $50 million on your way out the door. In other words: relentless annual oversight of the taxpayers, and none whatsoever of where the money goes. Even Khanna seems to grasp the trust problem - he launched a state-fraud probe in December, conceding taxpayers "need to have a receipt" for what their money funds - which rather makes Rufo's point: by his own estimate Washington loses half a trillion a year to fraud, and the remedy on offer is an audit of your art collection.

All of which lands a little awkwardly next to this week's Free Beacon report detailing how Khanna's own family fortune - courtesy of centimillionaire father-in-law and auto-parts magnate Monte Ahuja - is sheltered through the very sort of irrevocable trusts the congressman now wants taxed to the grantor. Per the Beacon, Khanna's minor children hold trust stakes in three private golf clubs and multiple hedge funds, the family occupies a $6 million, marble-clad Washington home with a private elevator, and the congressman's financial disclosures run to 333 pages of conveniently non-searchable tables.

What it does say, in writing, is what the fine print has said all along: the number was never $1 billion. This week it's $50 million. Ask again next cycle.

* * * Next-level Wagyu, now at ZeroHedge Store

Tyler Durden Sun, 07/05/2026 - 21:15
Tyler Durden

On 250th Anniversary, A Look Back At Gun Ownership In America

Zero Rss
2 months 3 weeks ago
On 250th Anniversary, A Look Back At Gun Ownership In America

Authored by Michael Clements via The Epoch Times,

"A well regulated Militia, being necessary to the security of a free State, the right of the people to keep and bear Arms, shall not be infringed."

The Second Amendment to the U.S. Constitution guarantees what may be the most uniquely American of all rights. Those 27 words have inspired millions of words in thousands of debates over the Amendment's meaning and what, if any, limits may apply.

"The Shot Heard 'Round the World," 2009, by Domenick D'Andrea. Public Domain

There is no question that firearms played a pivotal role in the birth and growth of the United States of America.

From the Pilgrims' matchlock muskets and the six shooters carried by cowboys, to the modern semiautomatic rifles wielded by Korean business owners in the Los Angeles riots of 1992, guns are an integral part of American culture.

The right to keep and bear arms is unique, says Amy Swearer, a senior legal fellow with Advancing American Freedom and Second Amendment scholar.

"It's an incredibly short list [of countries that recognize the right to own guns], and there are none of them have anything in theory or practice that is what I would say [is] a true equivalent of the American right to keep and bear arms," Swearer told The Epoch Times.

Based on sales data, permit applications, background checks and other factors, there are an estimated 400 million to 500 million firearms in civilian hands in the United States, according to the Sixguns Fraternity. This is an average of two firearms for every person over age 18.

Yet, while America celebrates 250 years as a society that honors the individual right to keep and bear arms, gun ownership remains one of the nation's most divisive issues.

Gun control groups did not respond to emails seeking comment for this article, but many have posted their concerns online. Gun control advocates say violence intervention strategies, strict gun control - including bans - and tighter regulation of the firearms industry are elements of common-sense gun laws.

They point to high-profile stories of mass shootings, school shootings, and violent crime involving firearms.

"The gun homicide rate in the U.S. is 26 times higher than that of other developed countries, but research shows that common-sense public safety laws can reduce gun violence and save lives," Everytown for Gun Safety, states on its website.

The group, along with others, say gunshots are the number one cause of death for American children.

The Centers for Disease Prevention and Control reports that the top cause of death for children between 1- and 17-years-old are "unintentional injuries." Matthew Garnett with the CDC's National Center for Health Statistics, defines unintentional injury as, deaths from fatal injuries that were "unintended, unplanned, and did not occur on purpose."

"Unintentional injury deaths include a wide array of mechanisms, with the four most common being: poisoning, motor vehicle crashes, drowning, and falls," Garnett wrote.

Second Amendment activists say gun control policies harm law abiding citizens rather than criminals. They say the data presented by gun control organizations are cherry-picked or manipulated to get the desired result.

Gun Owners of America says Everytown skews its data on children killed by firearms because it includes 18- and 19-year-olds. Generally, most data involving children only includes children aged 1 to 17, while 18- and 19-year-olds are considered adults.

Public safety has always played a role in American gun legislation, says Robert J. Spitzer, professor emeritus at the State University of New York, College at Cortland.

This includes laws on where and how guns could be carried, who could own them, and which arms are protected by the Second Amendment.

Spitzer has written extensively on the Second Amendment. In a 2017 article published by Duke University, "Gun Law History in the United States and Second Amendment Rights," he describes gun laws from pre-Revolutionary times to the modern day.

He contends that while America has a "wild west" reputation, it has also worked to tame that reputation. Spitzer wrote that "stand-your-ground" laws, the unlicensed carry of firearms, allowing those younger than 21 to legally carry a gun in public, and similar policies, do not align with America's tradition of gun regulation.

"[These] laws are not a return to the past. They are a refutation of America's past, and a determined march away from America's gun regulation tradition," Spitzer wrote. "And these changes have nothing to do with improving safety or security in society, but everything to do with politics."

So, what did the founders have to say? How did they view guns and their impact on public safety? And what route have the courts taken in trying to answer those questions?

Founding View Of Guns

The founders appear to have considered the ability to defend oneself a responsibility as much as a right. As Englishmen and lawyers, they studied English Common Law. Most of them were familiar with the "Commentaries on the Laws of England," by Sir William Blackstone.

Blackstone was an English jurist and legal scholar. His commentaries are considered an authoritative text when it comes to English law.

In the first chapter, Blackstone outlines the process for relief when a person's rights are violated or they are violently attacked. The first avenue is the court and the law, according to Blackstone. If that fails, the next step is a petition to the King and Parliament, and "lastly to the right of having and using arms for self-preservation and defense."

The right to be armed for self-defense underpinned legal arguments John Adams, Founding Father and second U.S. president, made when defending British soldiers charged with murder in the 1770 "Boston Massacre." His argument, voiced before there was a second amendment, informs his, and other founders', world view on the matter.

On March 5, 1770, a group of colonists was berating a British soldier guarding the Customs House in Boston. British Army Capt. Thomas Preston brought a squad of seven soldiers to support the lone guard.

As the situation grew tense, one of the soldiers fired his musket. Thinking the order to fire had been given, the others followed suit. Three colonists, including a black sailor named Crispus Attucks, were killed immediately. Two others died later.

Adams, Josiah Quincy Jr., and Robert Auchmuty, Jr., represented Preston in court. Adams argued that the soldiers had every reason to believe they were in danger.

"Here every private person is authorized to arm himself, and on the strength of this authority, I do not deny the inhabitants had a right to arm themselves at that time, for their defence, not for offence, that distinction is material and must be attended to," Adams stated.

Preston was acquitted of his murder charges.

Civilian gun ownership is necessary for a "well-regulated militia," according to Stephen Halbrook, a Fairfax, Virginia-based attorney and senior fellow with the Independent Institute.

"It was considered a duty," Halbrook told The Epoch Times.

Halbrook pointed out that the first settlement at Jamestown, Virginia, almost failed partly because of conflict with Indians who were hostile to the colonists.

"You had a responsibility ... to have arms in your home and basically to carry them around with you. After the Constitution comes into being in 1792 the federal militia laws ... required, that every able-bodied white male citizen would have to provide arms for himself and enroll in the militia, and to go when called to duty," Halbrook said.

This was outlined by Alexander Hamilton in Federalist Paper No. 29. Hamilton explained that the militia consists of armed residents prepared to defend themselves and their communities.

According to Hamilton, "well-regulated" means the members will "acquire the degree of proficiency in military functions which would be essential to their usefulness." While Hamilton called on the federal government to support the militias, he stressed that they would operate under local authority.

"Reserving to the states respectively the appointment of the officers, and the authority of training the militia according to the discipline prescribed by Congress," Hamilton wrote.

The federal government has a militia law, 10 U.S. Code § 246 - Militia: Composition and Classes, as do 45 states.

The federal law states that the unorganized militia is made up of all able-bodied males between the ages of 17 and 45 who are not members of the National Guard or Naval Militia, and females who are members of the National Guard and Naval Militia.

Nevada, Montana, Wyoming, North Dakota, and West Virginia do not have established militias. Twenty-two states have active militias, though Connecticut's militia is ceremonial. The rest of the state militias are inactive unless they are called to service.

Self-Defense

Swearer said that America has drifted away from the original intent of the militias. But there have been militia-style actions.

During the 1992 Los Angeles riots that erupted after four police officers were acquitted of charges stemming from the March 3, 1991, beating of Rodney King, several Korean business and property owners took up arms to defend their homes and businesses.

As the riots spread into the area known as Koreatown, many business owners and residents noticed that police were standing by, watching. So, the Korean residents armed themselves, got on their roofs, and held off the rioters. They became known as the "Rooftop Koreans."

"It is arguably a militia usage. It's that same understanding of the people protecting themselves when the government fails to protect them," Swearer said.

It was hardly the first time Americans armed themselves to defend their property. The United States was born in armed conflict.

Halbrook said that around the time of the Boston Massacre, the first gun control laws were passed. As Spitzer noted in his article, many of the laws were focused on public safety.

Firearms regulations from this era covered brandishing firearms, bans on certain types of weapons, carry restrictions, dueling, hunting, inspection of gun manufacturing facilities, and storage requirements, and the responsible discharge of firearms, among others.

There were also laws on who could possess guns. Halbrook said the main objective was to prevent certain groups from being armed.

For example, in his article, Spitzer points out that in 1619 the first General Assembly made it illegal to sell guns, powder, or shot, to Indians. A person convicted under the law faced hanging.

As part of a law requiring church attendance, the General Assembly included language requiring that "all such as bear arms shall bring their pieces, swords, powder and shot." Though not specified in the law, the likely reason for this requirement is to defend the colonists gathered in the church.

These early gun prohibitions were not focused as much on the guns as who could carry them. And, like the colonial governments, America has prohibitions on who can keep and bear arms.

Today, as in those early days, the United States prevents felons, the mentally ill, and others who could be considered dangerous to society from legally owning firearms. This was upheld in the 1980 U.S. Supreme Court case, Lewis v. U.S.

In that case, the court ruled that under the Omnibus Crime Control and Safe Streets Act of 1968, "the fact of a felony conviction imposes firearm disability until the conviction is vacated or the felon is relieved of his disability by some affirmative action," such as having his rights legally restored.

This legal concept was affirmed in the June 2024 decision in United States v. Rahimi, when the court ruled that disarming people deemed by a court to be dangerous aligns with the Second Amendment.

According to the court record, Zackey Rahimi, of Arlington, Texas, abused his girlfriend. Subsequently, she won a domestic violence restraining order against him. Rahimi was disarmed under 18 USC 922 (g) (8), the federal law that bars people under such an order from possessing or purchasing firearms.

After agreeing to the order, he assaulted another woman and was involved in at least five shootings. His firearms were confiscated because of the restraining order. Rahimi appealed the confiscation to the Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit, which found the law unconstitutional.

The Supreme Court reversed that.

"Since the Founding, the Nation's firearm laws have included regulations to stop individuals who threaten physical harm to others from misusing firearms," the decision states. "As applied to the facts here, Section 922(g)(8) fits within this tradition."

In a subsequent case, United States v. Hemani, the court in June 2026 rejected the idea that the federal government could automatically strip someone of their right to bear arms based on the mere fact that they took drugs. Writing for the majority, Justice Neil Gorsuch indicated more consideration was needed over whether the individual had lost their capacity to reason.

Gentleman's Honor

Halford said it wasn't until the early 19th Century that the first laws resembling modern gun control were passed. He said that in 1813 Kentucky and Louisiana passed laws prohibiting the concealed carry of weapons, including knives and other weapons.

He pointed out that the first such laws were passed in the South, but it was years before northern states passed similar laws. Halbrook said the new law had more to do with the concept of a Southern gentleman's honor.

"In Kentucky ... you had the code of dueling ... and it would be ungentlemanly to carry an arm concealed," Halbrook said. "It was kind of a macho thing ... only a person with bad intentions would hide [his weapons]."

Prohibitions based on politics, race, and similar factors did not fare well with the judicial system.

In the 1857 Dred Scott decision, the Supreme Court found that slaves were not citizens and did not have Constitutional rights, including Second Amendment rights.

"It cannot be believed that the large slaveholding States regarded them as included in the word citizens ... to keep and carry arms wherever they went," the decision reads in part.

In 1865, the Freedman's Bureau was established to ensure that freed slaves enjoyed the same civil rights as other Americans, including their Second Amendment rights. Though there were subsequent attempts to deny black Americans their civil rights, the court has generally ruled those laws unconstitutional.

In the following decades, a variety of gun laws were passed with the objective of promoting safety or preventing crime. Three of the most notable are the National Firearms Act of 1934, the Gun Control Act of 1968, and the Firearms Owners Protection Act of 1986.

The National Firearms Act was a response to organized crime in the 1920s and 1930s. The law designated some weapons as dangerous or unusual. These included fully automatic machine guns, short-barreled rifles and shotguns, and silencers.

Backers of the law knew it was doomed as a gun-control measure. So, it was passed as Congress exercising its taxing authority. But, according to the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms, and Explosives (ATF) website, the tax was a secondary purpose.

"Its underlying purpose was to curtail, if not prohibit, transactions in [National Firearms Act] firearms," the website states.

Only Federal Firearms License holders who pay a $200 tax can deal in National Firearms Act items. The tax, which remained $200 until last year when it was reduced to $0, was meant to inhibit ownership of National Firearms Act items.

The Gun Control Act corrected the constitutional problems in the National Firearms Act.

In 1968, the Supreme Court found in Haynes v. United States that forcing a person to register a National Firearms Act item, then prosecuting that person using information from the registration process violated the Fifth Amendment's protection against self-incrimination.

In 1986, the Firearm Owners' Protection Act was enacted. It added to the definition of "silencer" combinations of parts, and any part to make a silencer to the list of National Firearms Act items. It also prohibited the transfer or ownership of machine guns except for state and law enforcement agencies, and machine guns lawfully owned prior to May 19, 1986.

But in the 2000s, three landmark decisions was issued that turned the gun debate upside down.

Supreme Court Returns To History

Prior to 2008, the courts used a two-step "means test" to determine if a gun law was constitutional. Under this method, courts considered whether a law would obtain a favorable objective - such as crime reduction - even if it did not strictly align with the text of the Second Amendment.

It was accepted that a law might infringe on the right, but that could be acceptable if the end result outweighed the degree of restriction.

In its June 2022 decision in New York State Rifle and Pistol Association v. Bruen the court said the two-step approach was excessive.

By a 6-3 vote, the court concluded that the standard for applying the Second Amendment was determining whether the gun control policy was consistent with the nation's history and tradition. The court also found that New York State's licensing scheme, along with prohibitions on carrying guns in public, were unconstitutional.

Writing for the majority, Justice Clarence Thomas said any gun control law must align with the Second Amendment's language and have a "historical analog" from the time of the Amendment's ratification to pass constitutional muster.

This meant that if the law covered the activity listed in the amendment, specifically keeping and bear arms, it was unconstitutional unless a similar law existed around the time of the amendment's ratification.

The Bruen decision shook the gun debate and will impact Second Amendment cases for years to come. Two other Supreme Court rulings helped set the stage for the landmark decision.

In the 2008 case of District of Columbia v. Heller, the high court ruled that the Washington's prohibition on handguns, and requirements that privately owned guns be kept unloaded under lock and key, violated the Second Amendment.

In Heller, the court found that the Amendment protects an individual right to carry firearms for protection, which the District's law made all but impossible.

Then on June 28, 2010, the Supreme court ruled 5-4, in MacDonald v. Chicago, that the Second Amendment applied to state and local governments, as well as to the federal government.

Post-Bruen Developments

After Bruen, some states with strict gun laws, including New York, California, Hawaii, Illinois, Rhode Island, and others doubled down passing so-called "Bruen response laws."

Hawaii implemented a law prohibiting firearms on all private property open to the public unless the property owner gives express permission to gun owners to carry on their property.

The Supreme Court recently struck down that law in Wolford v. Lopez, ruling that it placed an undue burden on licensed gun owners.

Rhode Island, Virginia, and Illinois banned certain semiautomatic firearms, so-called assault weapons. New York and California instituted background checks for ammunition purchases in 2023.

As she announced the ammunition background check law, New York Gov. Kathy Hochul said her state was dedicated to promoting gun safety.

"We know this has nothing to do with lawful gun owners, nothing to do with them at all. These are people who have been convicted of felonies or other categories of people that should be prohibited from firearms and ammunition," she said.

At the time, President Joe Biden was in the White House and had successfully implemented much of his agenda to increase firearms regulation. The Bipartisan Safer Communities Act, which included funding for violence intervention programs as well as stronger gun control laws, was enacted in 2022.

Biden opened an Office of Gun Violence Prevention in the White House. The Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms, and Explosives was taking a much tougher stand on regulating firearms manufacturers and dealers through its zero-tolerance policy, and he was making strides toward implementing universal background checks.

Gun rights advocates, on the other hand, have been energized by the Supreme Court decisions, as well as what they consider to be a pro-Second Amendment president in Donald Trump.

Trump is currently 18 months into his second term. He closed the office in the White House, dismantled almost all of Biden's gun control programs and opened a Second Amendment office in the Department of Justice's Civil Rights Division.

Gun rights activists said there is more to be done. They are calling for the repeal of the National Firearms Act and Gun Control Act, the shutdown of the ATF, and the destruction of billions of gun sales records, which they say the agency is using to build an illegal registry.

The ATF denies it has such a registry.

The experts say that, like all the other constitutional rights, the Second Amendment will continue to be examined and possibly limited or expanded.

Halbrook offered advice for gun owners that could be applied to either side of the debate.

"They have to pay attention to politics, they have to vote, they have to support candidates who are going to be on their side, and they have to vote against those who are against them," Halbrook said.

The second amendment is spelled on a U.S. flag in a gun store in Rio Rico, Santa Cruz County, Ariz., on Sept. 17, 2025. Charly Triballeau/AFP via Getty Images Tyler Durden Sun, 07/05/2026 - 21:00
Tyler Durden

South Korea Plans Investment Fund From Chip Tax Revenue

Zero Rss
2 months 3 weeks ago
South Korea Plans Investment Fund From Chip Tax Revenue

At a time when chip and memory companies are disproportionately receiving the benefits of hundreds of billions in capex, and a growing number of politicians are consider ways to socialize these outsized gains, Yonhap News reported that South Korea plans to create an investment fund using tax revenue from its burgeoning semiconductor industry to finance long-term economic growth.

In a senior-level meeting of the government and the ruling party, presidential chief of staff Kang Hoon-sik said the additional revenue from the country’s chip industry should be invested for future growth, the news agency reported.

“By launching the fund with the extra tax revenue, we aim to make bold investments for the future, including supporting the three mega projects, creating future growth engines, addressing K-shaped polarization, and supporting housing, startups and jobs for those in their 20s and 30s,” Kang said.

South Korea recently unveiled its three mega projects initiative, which involves significant investment in semiconductors, physical AI and data centers.

Investments of at least 1,350 trillion won ($880 billion) from companies including Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix will be made, as the government looks to strengthen the country’s long-term competitiveness and position itself as an AI powerhouse.

Samsung Group and SK Group said they plan to build two chipmaking plants apiece in the southwest for a total of 800 trillion won, to rapidly expand production capacity to meet increasing demand. South Korea also announced 550 trillion won of investment from companies including internet leader Naver Corp. to build 8.4 gigawatts of AI data-center capacity by 2029.

The country aims to double its memory production capacity within five years and secure world-class manufacturing capabilities to pull far ahead of competing nations, the industry ministry said in a statement. South Korea must move faster than its global rivals to secure leadership in chips, data centers and physical AI, President Lee Jae Myung said at a briefing where he called the Samsung and SK Hynix leaders “national heroes.” 

Kang said the mega projects will help create new growth engines to determine the country’s future over the next 20 to 30 years, Yonhap added.

Tyler Durden Sun, 07/05/2026 - 20:58
Tyler Durden

Nvidia Supplier Hon Hai Sales Beat As Continued AI Demand Offsets Consumer Electronics Decline

Zero Rss
2 months 3 weeks ago
Nvidia Supplier Hon Hai Sales Beat As Continued AI Demand Offsets Consumer Electronics Decline

Nvidia’s server assembly partner Hon Hai Precision Industry reported a bigger-than-expected 40% jump in quarterly sales and said AI demand is growing further, according to Bloomberg. 

Hon Hai’s revenue grew to NT$2.51 trillion ($79 billion) in the three months to June, beating the average of analyst estimates of NT$2.37 trillion. Demand for AI-related products drove sales, compensating for a slight decline in demand from consumer electronics and computing products, where soaring memory prices have resulted in widespread demand destruction.

Shipments of AI racks are expected to maintain their momentum in the current quarter, while demand for information and communications technology products is entering peak season, the company said in a statement Sunday quoted by Bloomberg. Overall operations are expected to grow both quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year.

Hon Hai, also known as Foxconn, has established itself as a key AI hardware player by assembling servers that house Nvidia accelerators. This comes as Alphabet, Amazon, Meta Platforms and Microsoft are setting aside about $725 billion for AI spending this year, a total which Goldman believes could rise as high as $1.4 trillion in 2027, even as warnings abound about overcapacity and questions about how to monetize the technology grow louder.

In March, the Taiwanese company projected strong sales growth in 2026, fueled by sustained AI momentum. It derives a significant chunk of sales from assembling Apple’s iPhones and MacBooks and is in a position to benefit from any positive reception for the latest iPhone 17 product family, although in light of the upcoming price hikes across Apple products it remains to be seen what consumer reception will be for the higher-priced products.

But like many electronics manufacturers, Hon Hai faces a shortage of memory chips used in a wide range of products from smartphones to PCs and servers. Executives have said the crunch should not significantly impact demand for premium handset and computer products the company makes for major customers.

Tyler Durden Sun, 07/05/2026 - 20:34
Tyler Durden

Iran To Grant China, 'Friendly' Countries 'Special Consideration' On Hormuz Fees

Zero Rss
2 months 3 weeks ago
Iran To Grant China, 'Friendly' Countries 'Special Consideration' On Hormuz Fees

Via The Cradle

Iran's ambassador to China stated on Saturday that the Islamic Republic would impose service fees on vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz, but that China and other "friendly" countries would be granted "special considerations."

During a speech at the World Peace Forum in Beijing on Saturday, Iranian Ambassador Abdolreza Rahmani Fazli affirmed that Iran was working in "collaboration and cooperation" with Oman on "new arrangements" for the strait.

via Associated Press

Ships passing through Hormuz, through which one-fifth of the world's oil exports moved before the US-Israeli war on Iran, must travel along Iranian territory to the north and Omani territory to the south.

"As a country where the Hormuz is part of its territorial waters, we will definitely charge service fees," Fazli said. However, the fee would not be a "toll," he added, as tolls are considered illegal under international maritime law. Instead, the fees would be for security and administration.

"These new arrangements will be concerning guaranteeing the security of passage through the Straits of Hormuz, supervision of the passage of the vessels … and also guaranteeing and dealing with the environmental consequences of the massive number of ships," he stated.

Iran's NourNews agency quoted the ambassador as saying that "special considerations" would be applied to China and other friendly nations when determining the level and type of service fees charged for their vessels.

Beijing began importing large amounts of Iranian crude in the early 1990s as China industrialized and sought new energy sources to shift away from coal.

Beijing's purchases typically account for roughly 90 percent of Iran's oil exports, providing tens of billions of dollars in annual revenue that support Iran's government and military. To bypass US economic sanctions, much of the oil is transported using trans-shipment hubs and a shadow tanker fleet to obscure its origins.

The Strait of Hormuz was closed by Iran after the US and Israel launched an unprovoked war on the Islamic Republic on February 28.

In April, as energy prices soared, the US responded by imposing a naval blockade on Iran's southern ports to attempt to halt Iranian oil exports.

The Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) signed by Iran and the United States on June 15 to halt hostilities stipulated that commercial ships would be allowed to transit through the Strait of Hormuz free of charge for 60 days. Fazli added that new arrangements regarding Hormuz would be made in cooperation with Oman.

Last month, Oman proposed that ships transit the strait via a new southern route close to its coast and a new northern route along Iran's coast, while the central route through the strait is de-mined. Omani officials worked with the UN's International Maritime Organization (IMO) to develop the plans.

However, Iran rejected plans for the southern route, which would have been overseen by the US, saying it would violate Clause 5 of the MoU.

On Thursday, Iranian forces attacked a Singaporean ship attempting to pass through the southern Omani route, causing the IMO to abandon the effort.

The last 24 hours in the Strait of Hormuz are a doozy.

At the start of the clip, you will see many of the vessels that were going through the Oman route take the Iran route instead.

Now there's something I should probably point out. In the last week or so, US escorts through… pic.twitter.com/rK1iKRtrYm

— HFI Research (@HFI_Research) July 5, 2026

On Friday, Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf announced Iran and Oman had reached an agreement on the joint management and regulation of traffic in the Strait of Hormuz. 

Tehran has repeatedly vowed that the strait will not return to its pre-war status despite an illegal US blockade on its ports and attempts to undermine Iranian control of the waterway. 

"Hormuz is defined under Iran's command, not CENTCOM," Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister and top negotiator Kazem Gharibabadi said in a statement on July 2nd.

Tyler Durden Sun, 07/05/2026 - 19:50
Tyler Durden

Tracking The Caribbean Super Yacht Migration

Zero Rss
2 months 3 weeks ago
Tracking The Caribbean Super Yacht Migration

The superyacht season across the Caribbean and the Gulf of America has shifted into the off-season, with hurricane season now roughly a month in. As tropical activity risks rise across the Atlantic basin, some owners and charter fleets have shifted pleasure yachts and sailboats toward the Mediterranean, where the summer season is now in full swing. 

Ship-tracking and maritime intelligence platform MarineTraffic tracked the great migration of superyachts, including 2,156 departures of pleasure craft and sailing vessels from top Caribbean hubs between March and June. Of these, 161 showed a clear signal for an Atlantic, European, or Mediterranean route.

Out of 2,156 pleasure craft and sailing vessel departures recorded between March and June 2026 from Barbados, Guadeloupe, Martinique, the US Virgin Islands, St Barths, Antigua, the British Virgin Islands, and St Martin / St Kitts / St Lucia, 161 movements showed a clear Atlantic, European or Mediterranean route signal.

The departure side is concentrated in a handful of familiar yachting hubs. Martinique led with 48 movements (29.8%), followed by Antigua with 37 (23.0%), Saint-Martin with 23 (14.3%), Guadeloupe with 17 (10.6%), and the U.S. Virgin Islands with 14 (8.7%). At port level, Le Marin stood out as the main starting point.

MarineTraffic described the journey to Europe as less of a direct sprint and more of a staged migration:

The journey is rarely direct. Many vessels cross the Atlantic in stages, using Bermuda and the Azores as natural waypoints before continuing toward southern Europe and the western Mediterranean. Horta is the main mid-Atlantic stop, accounting for 28 vessels, followed by St George's, Bermuda with 9, and Ponta Delgada with 3, reflecting the classic Caribbean–Azores–Europe crossing pattern. Once in European waters, vessels fan out toward key Mediterranean yachting hubs, led by Palma de Mallorca with 12 vessels, followed by smaller flows into Barcelona, Genoa, Ibiza, Monaco and Tivat.

The timing underlines the seasonal nature of the migration. May was the busiest month, accounting for 73 of the 161 movements (45.3%), ahead of April (33), June (32) and March (23). The fleet is dominated by sailing vessels, which account for 109 movements (67.7%), while pleasure craft represent 52 (32.3%). In the clearest crossing records, vessels had already travelled an average of around 2,700 nautical miles at roughly 6.6 knots, with some Caribbean-to-Palma routes extending to around 3,680 nautical miles.

The journey of pleasure craft from the Caribbean to the Mediterranean

As the Caribbean winter season gives way to the Mediterranean summer, pleasure craft begin one of the most visible seasonal repositioning patterns at sea. Using #MarineTraffic data, we can trace how these… pic.twitter.com/oQoGr1HhUp

— MarineTraffic (@MarineTraffic) July 2, 2026

The Atlantic hurricane season ends at the end of November and December is typically when superyachts begin returning to the Caribbean and Gulf of America for the holiday rush. That marks the start of the Caribbean's prime time charter window, with peak Caribbean yachting season running through April as owners and charter fleets shift back from the Mediterranean.

Tyler Durden Sun, 07/05/2026 - 19:15
Tyler Durden

No, The Framers Would Have Hated The Billionaire Tax

Zero Rss
2 months 3 weeks ago
No, The Framers Would Have Hated The Billionaire Tax

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

Below is my column in the Wall Street Journal on the bizarre claim of Gov. Gavin Newsom and others that the Framers would have supported wealth taxes, including the proposed Billionaire’s Tax. It is a claim that seeks to mask the economically unwise with the historically unfounded. The Framers sought to protect property from legislative redistributive impulses. James Madison wrote that the bicameral system, and particularly the Senate, “ought to be so constituted as to protect the minority of the opulent against the majority.” That does not sound like an ally of Bernie Sanders and Ro Khanna.

Was James Madison the Zohran Mamdani of his time? Gavin Newsom appears to think so. In joining the growing number of Democratic leaders supporting a wealth tax, the California governor claimed that the U.S. Constitution and our Founders were all about wealth distribution: “The system America’s founders built,” he said, “was designed to prevent the concentration of power in a few hands, but we have allowed that concentration to happen anyway, slowly, in plain sight, over decades.”

The only problem with this argument is that it is utterly and demonstrably false. The Madisonian democracy is designed to avoid the concentration of political power, not the concentration of wealth.

The Founders were great believers in capitalism and the free market. In my recent book, “Rage and the Republic,” I discuss the economic philosophy of the Founders in exploring the history and future of this unique republic. This isn’t simply the 250th anniversary of the Declaration of Independence but also the anniversary of the publication of Adam Smith’s “The Wealth of Nations,” which the Founders embraced.

Many of the Founders were themselves quite wealthy, including banker Robert Morris Jr., who was known as the “Financier of the Revolution” and would be a billionaire today.

Our revolution was the first true Enlightenment revolution, heavily influenced by writers such as John Locke, who believed in a natural right to property. That right came not from the government, but from God, and “excludes the common right of other Men.”

That Lockean principle was manifest in George Mason’s Virginia Declaration of Rights, which was a basis for the Declaration of Independence. It extolled “the enjoyment of life and liberty, with the means of acquiring and possessing property, and pursuing and obtaining happiness and safety.”

James Madison drafted protections from government seizure of property, including the Takings Clause of the Fifth Amendment, which requires compensation for any property taken by the government.

The Constitution not only protects property, but was later amended to allow for income taxes rather than wealth taxes.

Far from supporting a wealth tax, the constitutional system referenced by Mr. Newsom makes a federal wealth tax unconstitutional.

Mr. Newsom’s recent endorsement of a national wealth tax was likely meant to blunt the outrage over his opposition to the resolution to create a state Billionaires’ Tax on the coming November ballot.

California has reportedly lost trillions of dollars in the exodus of billionaires and other wealthy taxpayers fleeing the high taxes and class politics of the state. Mr. Newsom knows that this draining of wealth spells doom for his state, which is already grappling with a massive, growing deficit. He offered a curious argument for opposing the state wealth tax: “You may not be able to pick up and move to Texas or Florida to shelter your income from taxation, but I promise you that billionaires can, and do.”

The argument suggested that most citizens are effectively a captive population to be culled by California leaders, dupes who are unable to escape a state with a deadly combination of some of the highest taxes and highest living costs in the nation.

Unions and others pushed the Billionaire Tax to avoid budget cuts and fund the state’s runaway expenditures, from pension funds to projects such as the infamous high-speed train to nowhere.

To deal with California’s reverse Gold Rush, drafters made the proposed Billionaire Tax retroactive to claw back money from those who have escaped.

The national Billionaire Tax pushed by Sens. Bernie Sanders (I., Vt.) and Elizabeth Warren (D., Mass.) seeks to cut off any escape for the wealthy short of leaving the country. When she ran for president, Ms. Warren warned the wealthy that she was coming for “your Rembrandts, your stock portfolio, your diamonds and your yachts.”

Of course, this assumes that the wealthy would be little more than passive prey in a hunt by the Internal Revenue Service. That is precisely what socialists thought in France decades ago, before an exodus from the country that, along with other socialist policies, brought it to near economic ruin. It was later rescinded.

Nevertheless, wealth taxes make for great politics. What is concerning is that, in addition to a wealth tax, Democratic leaders like Ms. Warren are pledging to pack the Supreme Court if they retake power. A packed court with an insistent liberal majority would let the Democrats push through measures that would otherwise be declared unconstitutional, including a wealth tax.

Congress could then gradually lower the level of wealth needed to trigger the tax, opening up the homes and estates of citizens as an untapped reservoir of money for the taking.

“You’re next” could then apply not just to office holders but to property owners in a push to redistribute wealth.

That strategy may well unfold in coming years, but it will be the realization of a Mamdanian, not a Madisonian, system.

Mr. Turley is a law professor at George Washington University and author of “Rage and the Republic: The Unfinished Story of the American Revolution.”

Tyler Durden Sun, 07/05/2026 - 18:40
Tyler Durden

'Thought People Hated Him': Trump Surprised Iranians Are Crying At Khamenei's Funeral Amid Massive Turnout

Zero Rss
2 months 3 weeks ago
'Thought People Hated Him': Trump Surprised Iranians Are Crying At Khamenei's Funeral Amid Massive Turnout

President Trump this weekend mused in an interview with Axios that so many people and officials are currently gathered for Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's funeral in Tehran that they could all be taken out in one fell swoop.

"They are all there. One shot [and we can take them all out], but we are not going to do that because then we would have nobody to negotiate with," Trump said.

AFP via Getty Images

He again emphasized that the Iranians "are begging to make a deal" but said both sides decided to take a week off from the conflict as well as talks to give time for Khamenei's funeral events to end. There are major public events scheduled to go for up to a week.

Trump acknowledged that neither side will shoot at the other as the funeral procession and multi-city observances continued. Predictions in international press accounts have said events are expected to attract some 30 million mourners.

The first and second days of public funeral ceremonies in Tehran attracted millions of people, after Friday saw top representatives from at least 70 foreign governments pay last respects.

Amid the scenes of public mourning, and also with some Iranian officials loudly calling for 'revenge' - Trump made this interesting comment to Axios:

He added that he was surprised to see some Iranians crying at the funeral, saying he thought people hated Khamenei. "Maybe it's fake tears," Trump mused.

Footage and images of massive crowds of people packing out central Tehran squares and roads have flooded social media over the weekend. External critics and enemies of Iran have been claiming that millions of people were 'forced' by Iran's security services to attend the funeral.

⭕️🇺🇸 President Trump told Axios U.S.-Iran negotiations are paused until the funeral ceremonies for the late Iranian Supreme Leader conclude on July 9, saying both sides agreed to “take a week off” and that “neither side will shoot at the other” during that time.

Referring to… pic.twitter.com/MqabN3ojTJ

— Drop Site (@DropSiteNews) July 4, 2026

Al Jazeera's correspondent in Iran has described the following in a Sunday report:

Thousands and thousands of people are streaming through to pay their respects on the second day of the public farewell ceremony for the Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

We know that tomorrow, in the capital of Tehran, there will be a funeral procession, and we are expecting millions of people to attend.

Also on the schedule, the bodies of Khamenei and his slain family members are also going to be taken to the holy cities of Karbala and Najaf in Iraq.

Khamenei and his family members are later to be buried in the city of Mashhad, which is his birthplace. His surviving son, Mojtaba Khamenei - the current supreme leader - is still in hiding and has yet been seen at the funeral.

Reports say the Iranians are fearful that US and Israeli intelligence, or their potential spy assets on the ground, could track Mojtaba's movements if he were to make public appearance at his father's funeral.

🇮🇷 Aerial images are emerging of massive crowds of Iranians gathered for Ali Khamenei's funeral.

After today's ceremonies, the body will be moved to Qom on Tuesday and then to Iraq for further religious processions around holy sites and shrines before finally being buried on… https://t.co/bV5WNMm365 pic.twitter.com/FkDkKQM5Tj

— Mario Nawfal (@MarioNawfal) July 5, 2026

As for Trump expressing 'surprise' that millions of Iranians would mourn the late Khamenei, this seems but the latest admissions (in a long familiar pattern) of Washington getting pretty much every key assumption wrong about Middle East states and cultures it seeks to do regime change it. 

This also hearkens back to US claims in Iraq that they "would greet us as liberators"... the same sentiment was at times expressed just ahead of the Feb. 28 US-Israeli attack on Iran. But a mass uprising strong enough to topple the government never materialized - though the US and Israel tried to encourage this.

Tyler Durden Sun, 07/05/2026 - 18:05
Tyler Durden

'Great Injustice Reversed': Belgian Soccer Furious As FIFA Allows Suspended US Star To Play

Zero Rss
2 months 3 weeks ago
'Great Injustice Reversed': Belgian Soccer Furious As FIFA Allows Suspended US Star To Play

Just after 2:00 p.m. (ET) today, President Trump published the following statement on Truth Social:

What is he talking about? What is the "great injustice"?

As Noel S. Williams explains via American Thinker, he's referring to the moment during the U.S. vs. Bosnia & Herzegovina World Cup match when the referee issued a bizarre, unwarranted red card to star striker Folarin Balogun.

Initially, that made him ineligible to play in the crucial last-16 match against Belgium on Monday. Great or not, there was an injustice - I just hope Karma and those mercurial soccer gods agree in the coming days.

It's clear that Balogun didn't deliberately stamp on the B&H defender's ankle.

I just wonder, now that FIFA has bent over backward to re-institute his eligibility to play against Belgium, if that will dull the U.S. team's cutting edge. Sometimes, when a team feels "hard done by," it solidifies their sanctimonious indignation, giving them more power.

Our team is already pulling together, but the "great injustice" added more "all for one, and one for all" spirit.

Given President Trump's post, the spotlight has just intensified on an individual player.

Additionally, the media is piling on, increasing performance expectations upon a person they describe as our best striker (with some creative player repositioning, Christian Pulisic could be deployed as a striker). Plus, there are other options. We have brilliant players all over the field, actually.

LOL!!! “Nah bro I have the Trump card, I win.”

Trump card always wins! pic.twitter.com/gGTlmDm0wH

— Gunther Eagleman™ (@GuntherEagleman) July 5, 2026

In a statement, the US Soccer Federation said:

WE ACCEPT THE DECISION OF THE DISCIPLINARY COMMITTEE AND ARE PLEASED THAT FOLARIN BALOGUN IS ELIGIBLE TO COMPETE TOMORROW.

OUR FULL ATTENTION IS FOCUSED ON THE ROUND OF 16 MATCH AGAINST BELGIUM IN SEATTLE, AND WE LOOK FORWARD TO THE CONTINUED SUPPORT OF OUR AMAZING FANS.

Understandably, the Belgian Soccer Federation is furious:

"The Royal Belgian Football Association (RBFA) is astonished by FIFA's decision to declare suspended United States player Folarin Balogun eligible to play in the USA–Belgium match on Monday, 6 July at 5:00 p.m. (Seattle time).

FIFA bases its decision on Article 27 of the FIFA Disciplinary Code.

...

❗️In order to safeguard the legitimate rights of all participating teams and to protect the fundamental principles of fair play in our sport, both at this FIFA World Cup and at future editions of the tournament, the RBFA is investigating all potential options."

With the Belgian coach exclaiming: "I did not know that July 4th was April Fools day..."

pic.twitter.com/fpY45ODoFr

💣🗣️ Journalist:

“What is your reaction to the possibility of Folarin Balogun playing against you tomorrow?”

🎥 Rudi Garcia, visibly furious: 😱🔥

“As I told your colleague earlier during the one-on-one interviews, I didn’t know that at the World Cup,…

— Pitch Wire (@wire_pitch) July 5, 2026

US odds improved after the suspension was lifted...

Go USA!

But before that, Go England!!

Tyler Durden Sun, 07/05/2026 - 17:30
Tyler Durden

OPEC+ Approves Another Oil Output Increase As Hormuz Exports Start To Recover

Zero Rss
2 months 3 weeks ago
OPEC+ Approves Another Oil Output Increase As Hormuz Exports Start To Recover

OPEC+ agreed a further increase in output targets from August, the group said in a statement on Sunday, ‌adding to global supply at a time when oil prices are falling due to the gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz for oil exports. 

Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman adjust production and reaffirm commitment to market stability

Read Press Release▶️https://t.co/dyMd6A6Fpj

— OPEC (@OPECSecretariat) July 5, 2026

The oil-producing cartel, which recently lost the UAE as a core member, agreed during an online meeting to increase quotas by 188,000 barrels per day from August, on top of similar increases for June and July. That said, the producers reserved the right to increase, pause, or reverse the phase-out, including the November 2023 cuts already unwound. Furthermore, every country that overproduced since January 2024 still has to fully compensate for it, tracked monthly by the JMMC. 

The seven ​core members of OPEC+, which groups OPEC and allied producers including Russia, have hiked their output quotas from April through July ​by almost 800,000 bpd. Yet the increase has remained largely on paper because of the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran, ⁠which closed the Strait of Hormuz to tanker traffic for some of the most important OPEC+ members, including Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and ​Iraq.

According to Reuters, OPEC+ output fell to 33.13 million bpd in May, according to OPEC data, from 42.77 million bpd in February. It began ​to recover in June thanks to U.S. efforts to help the UAE and other OPEC+ nations export more oil, but is still below pre-war levels.

Despite persisting supply disruptions, oil prices have returned to pre-war levels, pressured by sharply lower Chinese imports, higher exports from non-Middle East producers, and a record global strategic stock release coordinated ​by the International Energy Agency.

"The group of seven kept unwinding their production cuts as widely expected," UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said. "The near-term focus ​will remain on how many tankers will manage to cross the Strait of Hormuz and how quickly demand and Chinese crude imports recover."

A memorandum of understanding ‌between Washington ⁠and Tehran to end the war, which has been breached on several occasions but is still holding, has also helped convince traders that supply will ultimately return to normal levels.

Brent crude prices traded near $72 per barrel on Friday, down from recent peaks of more than $120 per barrel and back to levels traded just before the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran on February 28.

Besides agreeing production targets, OPEC+ is also facing other challenges after the United Arab Emirates left ​the group and Iraq signaled it wants ​higher quotas.

OPEC+ includes 21 members ⁠including Iran, but in recent years only the seven nations - and the UAE until its departure - have been involved in monthly production management. Those seven producers, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan and Oman, are ​boosting output as part of the phased rollback of a 1.65 million bpd supply cut agreed ​in 2023, when ⁠the group still included the UAE.

In a stunning twist, the UAE quit the alliance in late April because it wanted to align its capacity more closely with its production, free of production restraints imposed by the group. From August, taking into account the UAE's exit from May 1, the seven core members will still ⁠have about ​379,000 bpd of the original cut to return to the market, according to ​Reuters calculations.

With the August increase now decided, they will have fully unwound the 2023 cut if they make one more hike of around the same size for September at ​their next meeting on August 2.

Tyler Durden Sun, 07/05/2026 - 16:55
Tyler Durden

The Biggest Problem With AI Today

Zero Rss
2 months 3 weeks ago
The Biggest Problem With AI Today

By Christopher Penn, of Almost Timely News

What’s the biggest problem in AI today? Is it cost, with token budgets being blown out of the water by agentic AI? Is it sustainability, with AI consuming electricity and fresh water? Is it ethics, with tech companies cramming AI into everything?

I think it’s deeper than that. Those are all symptoms of a much deeper-rooted problem: nobody’s making decisions.

Or more correctly, we’ve abdicated far too much of our executive function to AI. We’ve surrendered our thinking. 

Let’s dig in.

Part 1: Where This Issue Came From

On Friday afternoon, I was mulling over what I wanted to cover in this week’s issue. It’s a holiday weekend here in the USA, so not as many folks will be reading, and that’s okay. (I appreciate that YOU are) And I’ve covered a ton recently:

  • How to improve advertising with AI
  • Why listicles may cause more harm than good
  • Setting up private, local models
  • How AI detection works
  • AI for GEO mental models
  • AI for retail GEO
  • 18 ways to save token budgets
  • How to make AI write better

So on a whim, I set up a NotebookLM with the last 180 days of conversations from over 40 different subreddits, like r/marketing, r/chatgpt, etc. - everything around marketing, business, and AI. I connected it to Claude Code with the NotebookLM command line tool (the most token—efficient way for Claude to talk to NotebookLM), and then put all of my 2026 newsletters year to date into an input folder.

I asked Claude to compare what I’ve written about thus far this year with what folks are finding their hardest problems are with AI. Claude spit out a list of 10 major things derived from over 800,000 words of foaming at the mouth on Reddit that it thought might be good newsletter topics:

  • AI Visibility challenges
  • Agentic oversight is degrading
  • AI deployment is broken
  • 40-60% of company budget is wasted on the wrong models
  • AI is a rental
  • AI sycophancy is screwing up synthetic focus groups
  • AI detectors don’t work
  • AI is hollowing out corporations and no one’s hiring junior staff
  • People measure AI by tokenmaxxing
  • Marketers are basically unpaid labor for AI companies training data

Claude was REALLY pushing for me to write about how measurement is broken in marketing and AI today, and I might do that at some point, but that’s not what I see when I look at this laundry list. Yes, there are measurement issues in many of them, data issues in many of them, but... measurement being broken is the symptom of what I said earlier - we’ve abdicated executive function.

For those who aren’t analytics nerds, you know that measurement is a trailing indicator. It’s not a leading indicator.

Part 2: Executive Function Recap

As a reminder, I bucket executive function into four categories that I call PODS:

  • Plan: you think about achieving something in the future and make a plan to get there from here
  • Organize: you take what you have and try to make sense of it
  • Decide: you take what you have and make decisions about it
  • Solve: you solve the problems you have

Yes, there is more nuance to executive function than this, but this handy, short list is an easy way to see what our brains are doing. That’s critical thinking, one of the worst-named practices we have.

Why? Because critical thinking isn’t about being critical, per se. It’s about metacognition - the definition of which is thinking about thinking. When you’re thinking about how you think, you open the door to improvements, to growth.

Thinking about thinking means asking questions and reflecting - is this the best way to do something? How could I do this better? How could I derive more enjoyment from this thing I’m doing? It’s not criticizing yourself as much as it is recognizing what you’re doing and whether it’s working or not.

When you’re planning, organizing, deciding, and solving, you’re inherently thinking about thinking. Every time you plan, every time you bring order to chaos, you have to check in with your own brain to see if what you’re doing is moving you closer to the goal posts.

Executive function is one of the things that defines our sentience as living creatures. Every sentient creature from a mouse to us does these tasks. You’ve read or heard stories about crows fashioning tools from wire to solve problems, you’ve watched dogs and cats make decisions and plan. I’ve watched my own cat measure optically whether or not she can make a particular jump.

Properly prompted, today’s AI tools are superb at executive functions as well. Given the right frameworks, harnesses, and data, they can plan, organize, decide, and solve better than we can at most language-based tasks.

And therein lies the actual problem.

Part 3: The Tale of the Tape

Let’s look at each of the 10 topics Claude suggested to see the threads that connect them.

AI Visibility challenges: when you read the verbatims of what people are saying about AI visibility measurement, you can tell they’re pretty much making it up. This is especially true of software vendors that are offering and peddling solutions that have very little grounding in reality - and yet, stakeholders eat this stuff up because they’d rather have certainty about a wrong number than accept uncertainty or no number at all. they are not thinking about their thinking.

Agentic oversight is degrading: the commenters on Reddit focused on the fact that as agents get more sophisticated, it’s harder and harder to follow along to see what they’re doing. So we just hit OK all the time - if we’re even thinking about a human in the loop. We’ve forfeit our authority here. In fact, some AI tools have this built in as a feature. Claude calls it dangerously skip permissions. Qwen calls it YOLO mode.

AI deployment is broken: here, the discussion is about stakeholders telling their stakeholders that the organization has deployed AI without any sense of the impact that it’s had. One poster cited a statistic that 29% of companies see significant ROI from AI, even though individual employees are claiming 5x productivity increases. The math doesn’t math. Here, people don’t want to think and reflect about what deployment even means. Katie’s been writing a lot about this in the Trust Insights newsletter the last few weeks. At its heart, we are confusing using AI with getting results out of AI.

40-60% of budget is wasted: here, folks are talking about how everyone just accepts the default model in AI tools, which is typically the most expensive one. Claude, for example, defaults to Opus 4.8, which is a much more expensive model than Sonnet 5 or Haiku 4.5. We’re not thinking. We’re not making decisions about cost trade-offs versus effectiveness. Another person pointed out that this is by design to create habits. It’s about habit formation for the most expensive models so that when the subsidization of today’s AI ends, we are accustomed to using the most expensive models. This is brain hijacking in a way.

AI is a rental: in this particular topic, the discussion centers around what you actually own in AI, which is very little if you are using today’s closed weights frontier models. Particularly Anthropic’s on-again, off-again rollout of Fable 5, thanks to U.S. export controls, was a wake-up call to the entire industry that you don’t own anything in SaaS, any more than you own music in Spotify or own videos in Netflix - but people think they do.

Sycophancy in focus groups: even though we have good academic research showing that properly prompted AI models can emulate human purchase intent with about 90% accuracy, the level of sycophancy in AI models steers them towards confirmation bias in most situations. This is especially true of synthetic focus groups; when people use AI to simulate consumer intent, what they’re really doing is reinforcing their own biases most of the time. There’s no reflection or questioning the AI output.

AI detectors don’t work: A perpetual favorite topic of mine. This thread of conversation revolved around how companies are using AI detectors to identify the use of AI in situations where it’s not appropriate, without recognizing that the detectors themselves are also broken. In testing I did 3 weeks ago now, AI detectors falsely flagged human outputs 1 out of 7 times. No one is thinking and reflecting enough about who’s watching the watchers.

AI is hollowing out companies: I really liked this quote from the agency owners subreddit:

“What’s strange is nobody decided this. There was no meeting where we discussed this. We automated one annoying task, then another, and one day the job had hollowed out from the inside.“

This erosion of tasks is all about a lack of cognition, a lack of reflection, a lack of a plan. No one’s making decisions - just leaving it up to the machines, a bit more each day.

Tokenmaxxing: this was reflecting on Meta’s most recent news story in which they were on track to spend several billion dollars in AI tokens because they measured AI productivity based on token spend, the dumbest possible way to measure AI.

Marketers as unpaid trainers: this was a whole bunch of ranting about how marketers are effectively unpaid trainers for AI platforms. The more content we produce, the more AI has to train on while simultaneously competing for the tasks we’re paid to do. Here, the thread was about how the average marketer isn’t thinking or reflecting about their relationship to AI.

And this laundry list of 10 items isn’t everything, not by a long shot. Think about how else people use AI without thinking, without thinking about their thinking. Go on LinkedIn and look at the endless streams of comment-bots all paraphrasing the same template over and over again. Look at the workslop flooding your inbox, read the reports your agencies send you that are clearly copy paste jobs.

When we put aside the direction that Claude wanted to nudge this issue of the newsletter, it becomes pretty apparent that it’s really about how much we think about thinking. How self-aware are we? How well and accurately do we perceive our relationship with AI?

Most of all, do we see the amount of executive function we’ve ceded to AI?

Part 4: The Antidote

“Nobody decided this” is haunting me. When you hand off executive functions to AI, who is making the decisions? No one. There’s no one accountable for a decision because the machine is making it for us. Whether it’s building a PowerPoint deck, assembling a report for a client, creating content for a newsletter, when the machine does it, there’s no accountability and there’s no decision making on our part other than approving it.

And this leads to a bunch of bad outcomes, everything from job loss to dissatisfaction with your own work. You know, when you use AI to offload a task, that you didn’t do the work - and you take no pride in it, any more than you’d take pride in the work that a contractor did on your behalf.

Think about this in the context of parents. Go to any parent’s house and you’ll likely see art that the kids made when they were young. The art is generally, objectively, pretty bad. But the parent values it not because of the quality of the art, but because of the level of effort made by the child. They take pride in their child’s efforts, and the child takes pride in what they did in their efforts. For good or ill, when people use AI, they themselves feel like they haven’t made an effort, and the person on the receiving end also feels like they didn’t make an effort.

Sometimes, you don’t even understand the work if you’ve outsourced it. You present it to your stakeholders, and the first question they ask that isn’t in the prepared materials leads to panic city because you can’t answer it, like buying a cake at the store instead of baking it yourself and then having someone ask if a specific allergen is in it. And you’re left scrambling, looking for the label to see what’s actually in the cake.

So my suggested antidote is this: for every task that matters, always start with someting you lead, and force the machines to educate you.

For example, when I compile monthly reports for Trust Insights clients, I turn on my voice recorder and I review the data myself. I talk out loud what I see, what I think, what makes sense and what doesn’t make sense, and then I have AI transcribe it. After the transcription is complete, I ask AI to review it and show me what I missed. I ask it to ask me questions, to record more information, to fish more information from me.

I also ask it, especially around anything in my subject matter expertise, to find me resources to learn and read about its recommendations. Recently, I was asking it to choose from a catalog I’d prepared of over 1,000 different analytical techniques, and it chose an interesting ensemble of 3 techniques, one of which I didn’t know well. So I had it teach me that, so that instead of me passively accepting its recommendations, I learned something. I got better as a professional. I grew my subject matter expertise.

If you think about it, this is not only rational from the perspective of delivering great quality work, it’s also rational from the perspective of my value. If I’m nothing more than a copy paste drone, a meat-based interface to an LLM, then why does my company need me? Why would my clients pay for me when they could just pay to ask ChatGPT or Claude the exact same things?

What they’re paying for is my expertise, my skills not only at using the technology, but the specific lens I direct it with, and the perspective that only I can bring. And if I’m using AI to constantly improve that expertise, to improve that domain knowledge, then they should keep paying for me.

Outside my subject matter expertise, I start with deep research, using AI tools to gather information and then having them create a synthesis. Once I’ve got that, then I have it create a checklist of what constitutes quality in the domain I’m working in. Finally, I sit down with the creations and I read and learn for myself. I have AI make infographics or podcast summaries to learn the domain so that I can connect it to my expertise.

Agentic AI - tools like Claude Code, OpenCode, etc. - are phenomenal researchers, far better than the web-based deep research tools folks have become accustomed to in the past couple of years. When you use a research agent, it has a lot more latitude to gather up sources, to take the time to write down notes and observations, and to synthesize conclusions from the data it has. If you use something like the Trust Insights CASINO research framework, you’ll get some amazing results from the tools that tend to have fewer hallucinations than their web-based counterparts.

Then with that research data in hand, you use it to become a better professional within your domain. You use it to level yourself up. You use it to add to your insights instead of substitute for your insights.

Part 5: Wrapping Up

The biggest problem in AI today is the delegation of our executive function to machines. Whether it’s accountability (machines have none), deskilling, or dissatisfaction with our work, the moment we forfeit executive function is the moment when AI becomes more problem than solution.

We can boil it all down to a simple set of questions:

  1. Does the use of AI make the output better?

  2. Does the use of AI make me better?

If the answer isn’t yes to BOTH, then you’re not using it well.

Properly used, AI is one of the greatest professional development tools ever created.

Improperly used, it’s one of the most destructive forces your career has ever known, because the moment you offload a task to AI, your own skills at that task get rusty.

And once something becomes rusty enough, it’s cheaper and easier to replace it.

More in the Almost Timely Newsletter

* * * Next-level Wagyu, now at ZeroHedge Store

Tyler Durden Sun, 07/05/2026 - 16:20
Tyler Durden

Japan Bankruptcies Surge To All-Time High As A Result Of Plunging Yen

Zero Rss
2 months 3 weeks ago
Japan Bankruptcies Surge To All-Time High As A Result Of Plunging Yen

In recent months one of the more frequent questions in FX trading has been the relentless collapse in the yen, which recently sank below a 40 year low despite rate differentials stubbornly headed in the opposite direction, and is increasingly flirting with levels which on previous occasions always prompted BOJ intervention.

Among the reasons cited for the chronic weakness of the Japanese currency have been the following three:

  1. Real short-term rates in Japan are negative, which is why Ueda has been slow to hike
  2. There is a growing perception that Japan's PM Takaichi doesn't want a higher rates or a stronger yen.  A weak yen certainly helps big JP firms profits (while hurting households) so there is a clear weak yen constituency inside the LDP. Japanese financial institutions are also short the yen generally
  3. JP financial institutions (notably lifer insurers) see the upfront cost of hedging (the nominal ST rate differential) and have made a mint on unhedged fx assets, and they have been reluctant to change their position just because the yen looks exceptionally undervalued.

Effectively a feedback loop has emerged, whereby the weaker yen leads to an even weaker yen, and despite token resistance by the BOJ - the latest long overdue rate hike being an example - the market clearly anticipates further weakness in the currency, and is pushing it to new lows.

However, a limit to the yen's weakness is now emerging, and it goes to the growing damage on the country's households noted in point 2 above.

As Bloomberg reports, Japan’s weak currency caused the most bankruptcies for the first half of a year since 2022, underscoring the growing economic costs of the currency’s slump. 

Forty-five firms failed from January to June for that reason, up more than 30% from a year earlier, according to a report by Tokyo Shoko Research published last Wednesday. The figure was the highest since 2022, when the data firm started counting companies that specifically cite currency weakness in filing for bankruptcy.

The findings suggest the smaller firms that employ most of Japan’s workers are finding it increasingly difficult to withstand the yen’s prolonged weakness, casting a shadow over the nation’s economy, even as large-cap exporters benefit. 

The data also strengthen the case for continued interest-rate hikes from the Bank of Japan. While higher borrowing costs alone would typically push more firms toward insolvency, closing the gap with US rates could help support the yen.

The yen has steadily weakened against the dollar in recent years as US interest rates climbed to combat pandemic-era inflation while Japanese rates were negative to break free of deflation. While the rate differential has since narrowed, a rally in the dollar and high oil prices from the war in Iran are pressuring the yen.  

The yen hit a new 40 year low of 162 per dollar on Thursday, before rising higher amid some speculation that Japan's financial authorities may finally seek to rein it in. While the weaker currency has boosted exporters’ earnings, it has also driven up import costs, squeezing profit margins across a broad range of import-dependent industries, and has also helped sustain the worst inflation in Japan's recent history.  

The conflict in the Middle East has also drastically boosted costs. A price index for raw materials and merchandise purchases among a broad range of smaller firms surged in the second quarter, according to a survey by the Organization for Small & Medium Enterprises and Regional Innovation. The Bank of Japan’s producer price index has also jumped in recent months.

Tokyo Shoko Research’s report showed bankruptcies were particularly concentrated in the wholesale sector. One example was Tokyo-based Merry Time Foods, an importer of crab, shrimp and tuna from other parts of Asia. The company went bankrupt in May, citing deteriorating profitability due to the weak yen and political instability in its supplier countries.

The research firm said in the report that currency-related bankruptcies are likely to remain elevated for some time, particularly among wholesalers, retailers and manufacturers with limited pricing power.

According to Bloomberg, the strain has been acute for small- and mid-sized businesses, who are more affected by higher borrowing costs than their larger counterparts. They’re also contending with mounting wage hike pressures amid persistent labor shortages. Smaller firms often have limited ability to pass higher costs onto customers due to intense competition.

“The weak yen is one contributing factor,” said Yoshihiro Sakata, manager at Tokyo Shoko Research. “Combined with inflation and rising labor costs, it is creating a cumulative burden on businesses.”

Another source of pressure on smaller businesses may be foreign-exchange hedging, including the use of so-called reverse knockout options, according to Yuji Saito, executive adviser at SBI FXTrade. Such products are widely sold by regional banks as structured hedging products, particularly to small and regional importers seeking to minimize upfront option premiums.

Once the exchange rate reaches a preset knockout level, the option expires and the hedge ceases to provide protection. Companies needing dollars must then either purchase them in the spot market, enter into a new hedge - often at less favorable levels - or leave themselves exposed to further currency moves.

“The weaker the yen gets, the more importers roll into increasingly risky option structures,” Saito said. “Once the knockout level is breached, they are forced to buy dollars in the spot market, creating a negative spiral that puts even more downward pressure on the yen."

Analysts estimate that remaining reverse knockout levels are clustered between 163 and 170 yen per dollar, territory that many firms didn’t think the currency would reach as intervention from the central bank would likely be forthcoming due to the adverse economic impact of such unprecedented currency collapse.

“The number of knockouts could increase if the yen weakens further,” said Hiroyuki Machida, director of Japan FX and commodities sales at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group. “The situation is becoming significant for companies that are unable to pass on higher costs.”

Tyler Durden Sun, 07/05/2026 - 15:45
Tyler Durden

Russia's Buffer Zone On Ukrainian Border 'Expanding' As Result Of Worsening Drone Attacks: Kremlin

Zero Rss
2 months 3 weeks ago
Russia's Buffer Zone On Ukrainian Border 'Expanding' As Result Of Worsening Drone Attacks: Kremlin

Russia has announced that one key measure that will be taken in response to Ukraine's ramped-up drone attacks on Russian territory, including last month's major strikes on the Moscow area, is the significant expansion of the border 'buffer zone' between the waring countries.

"A security buffer zone on the Russian-Ukrainian border is conditioned by the aggressive nature of the Kiev regime and the Russian military is engaged in this process systematically reaching the appropriate progress," presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Sunday.

Source: Kremlin/Reuters

In essence this is the Kremlin saying that Russian forces plan to permanently take over territory deeper into Ukraine.

"Based on the aggressive nature of the Kiev regime and in order to insure the safety of our citizens, we are setting up a security zone, or the so-called, buffer zone," Peskov continued. "This buffer zone is being created systematically. We do register significant results regarding the terms of our troops’ advancing."

"There area should be no in no one doubts that it would will be serve to extend the necessary area ensuring our security," he added.

"Our troops are advancing," Peskov continued. "No one here should have any doubt that our military is proceeding systematically, and we are seeing concrete results."

He cited the taking of Konstantinovka: "This is a milestone, it is the most important step towards taking the common fortified area of Kramatorsk and Slavyansk," he claimed according to TASS.

President Putin has of late been taking steps to strongly signal he's committed as ever to completing the war aims of Russia's 'special military operation' - despite reports of nationwide fuel shortages, and also a full-blown gasoline supply crisis in Crimea.

The Kremlin released footage on Friday evening of the 73-year old Russian leader visiting an auxiliary command post to meet with the chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces.

Putin wore a military uniform, which Russian state sources described as a sign of his resolve to "finish off the terrorist neo-Nazi vermin".

English-language RT's response: "...seems to desire for that security zone to begin on the Polish border."

Putin: "The more strikes the enemy attempts to carry out on our civilian facilities, the larger the security zone we will have to create in adjacent territories."

Sadly, the current Kiev regime seems to desire for that security zone to begin on the Polish border.…

— Chikhi Cato (@KatoHus56872326) July 4, 2026

The scene appeared aimed primarily at the West, which has been questioning Moscow's resolve due to the now frequent Ukrainian drone hits on sensitive energy infrastructure.

President Trump has also lately appeared to pivot back to wanting the resolve the Ukraine conflict, while still seeking permanent offramp regarding to the Iran war crisis.

Tyler Durden Sun, 07/05/2026 - 14:35
Tyler Durden

A Bad Moon Is Rising On Our Nation's 250th Birthday

Zero Rss
2 months 3 weeks ago
A Bad Moon Is Rising On Our Nation's 250th Birthday

Authored by James Howard Kunstler,

Burning Down The House...

"I forgot to get napkins. I just wiped my hand on the American flag behind me."

- Darializa Avila-Chevalier, primary election winner, New York’s 13th Congressional District

Who are all these Democratic Socialists of America, anyway?

DSA on the March shoulder to shoulder with the Pride Brigade

“We are Westerners fighting for the total eradication of Western civilization,” one of their spoxes declared on Instagram in 2024.

Hmmmm . . . . I wonder if you can be a little more specific. Like, including democracy and socialism, two western civ constructs? Kind of looks like a baby / bathwater situation, followed by burning down the house where the baby lived. Do we get a chance to debate this proposition in the midterm election?

Likewise, a St. Paul, Minnesota, school board member, one Chauntyll Allen offered the following policy recommendation on the We Love Our Dog Park Facebook page:

A bad moon is rising on our nation’s 250th birthday. The country is in a rancid mood. You begin to see what happens when political ideas are carried to their last limits. Question is: does all this add up to a winning party platform? You must suppose that higher-ups in the Democratic Party are asking themselves the question now. What do Hakeem Jeffries and Chuck Schumer think when they see these Angels of Death on the march (or in flight) over the midterm battlefield?

Darializa Avila Chevalier, Claire Valdez, and Melat Kiros are going to Congress to link arms with “The Squad” — AOC, Ilhan Omar, Rashida Tlaib, Ayanna Pressley — and they will bring their cargo of DSA policy ideas with them: racial, gender, and social justice; abolish ICE (no more deporting anybody); defund the police; end incarceration (no more jails); free housing and medical care; green this-n-that; government ownership of business; abolish the Senate and the electoral college; pack the SCOTUS...

The platform apparently has a lot of appeal to a certain demographic — which, I suspect, includes the many young recent graduates of the diploma mills who are pissed-off that Mr. Trump & Company are methodically shutting down the NGOs that were supposed to furnish these young race-and-gender studies majors with cushy, six-figure jobs doing “activism.” Alas, that pathway is increasingly blocked and the country only needs so many baristas.

What to do then? Take it to the limit! Be communists. . . with all that entails. 

What’s mine is mine and what’s yours is mine, too.

This new gen of Democratic Socialists is arguably worse than the Confederates of 1861. Those Rebs only wanted to secede from USA and go their own way in one corner of the land. They didn’t want to piss on Johann Sebastian Bach, Leonardo DaVinci, Jane Austen, Margaret Fuller, and Ralph Waldo Emerson as they walked out. The Democratic Socialists of our day are fully aligned with their avatars: Joseph Stalin, Mao Zedong, and Pol Pot, who operated human meat-grinders at scale to tamp down the opposition. Not a great look to align with the great mass-murderers of history.

It must be agony for Schumer and Jeffries. Eradicate Western Civ. . . ? Piss on white people’s corpses. . . ? Are they really going to get behind that? No-o-o-o-o. But they will try to wriggle around this steaming pile for some weeks to come until it is obvious that the Democratic Party has blown itself up, hoisted itself on that old petard. It may be too late for the party’s old guard. No matter how many rain-dances Elizabeth Warren does, nothing will put out this dumpster fire.

Another question for the months ahead: can that party control its increasingly maniacal street warriors, the Antifas, the Pink Pistols, the Transgender Armed Defense forces, and whatever remains of BLM. There is still a lot of money in circulation for public demonstrations and disruptions from George Soros and other sponsors. And apart from that are the forces of jihad, with their own foreign patrons. Gawd knows how many jihadis came into the country during “Joe Biden’s” orchestrated alien invasion. Not just a few, you can be sure.

By the way, can somebody at the Office of Management and Budget do an audit of the $370-billion that “Joe Biden” handed over to John Podesta in the fall of 2024 to administer “climate-related provisions” of the Inflation Reduction Act, and figure out how much of it bounced right back into Democratic Party-adjacent NGOs and down to party capos like Stacey Abrams in Georgia, Brandon Johnson in Chicago, and Karen Bass in LA?

And happy 250th birthday to you, America — if you can keep yourself.

* * * Next-level Wagyu, now at ZeroHedge Store

Tyler Durden Sun, 07/05/2026 - 14:00
Tyler Durden

Paul Pelosi Faces Charges In Napa County Hit-And-Run

Zero Rss
2 months 3 weeks ago
Paul Pelosi Faces Charges In Napa County Hit-And-Run

Paul Pelosi, the 86-year-old husband of Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), faces misdemeanor charges for a hit-and-run after allegedly striking a parked car in Napa, California on Friday. 

According to a statement from the Napa County Sheriff’s Office, the collision occurred around 2:30 p.m. on July 3, 2026, on the 6700 block of Yount Street in Yountville. A witness reported seeing a brown convertible traveling northbound on Yount Street strike a parked car that was legally positioned on the shoulder of the roadway. The parked vehicle sustained significant rear-end damage. Pelosi briefly stopped before continuing on.

The witness called 911 to report the hit-and-run. Deputies responded and located Paul Pelosi a short time later, roughly a quarter-mile away. His brown convertible was found partially blocking Yountville Cross Road, with a California Highway Patrol vehicle positioned behind it. The front right side of Pelosi’s car showed significant damage consistent with the rear damage on the parked vehicle.

6700 block of Yount Street in Yountville

Pelosi told investigators that he knew he had hit something but did not know what it was or when it happened, so he kept driving until his vehicle became disabled and he could no longer continue.

No injuries were reported in the incident. A preliminary alcohol screening device administered at the scene detected no alcohol in Pelosi’s system, and deputies ruled out suspicion of driving under the influence.

Because there were no injuries, deputies did not arrest Pelosi at the scene - and instead issued him a misdemeanor citation for fleeing the scene of an accident. The Napa County Sheriff’s Office has submitted the case to the Napa County District Attorney’s Office for review and possible prosecution.

The sheriff’s office also submitted a referral to the California Department of Motor Vehicles to initiate a re-evaluation of Pelosi’s driving privileges, a process it described as common for older drivers.

Prior Legal History

This is not Pelosi’s first encounter with law enforcement in Napa County. In May 2022, he was involved in a DUI crash in the county. He later pleaded guilty to a misdemeanor charge of driving under the influence of alcohol causing injury. He was sentenced to five days in jail, three years of probation, ordered to complete a three-month driving class, install an ignition interlock device on his vehicle, and pay $5,000 in restitution for the victim’s medical bills plus $2,000 in additional fines.

In a separate 2022 incident, Pelosi was seriously injured when a suspect broke into the couple’s San Francisco home and struck him with a hammer. He underwent surgery for a skull fracture.

A spokesperson for the Pelosi family issued the following statement regarding the latest incident:

“Mr. Paul Pelosi has personally apologized to the owner of the vehicle and assured them that he would take responsibility for the damage to their vehicle. Speaker Pelosi will not be commenting further on this private matter.”

The Pelosis maintain ties to the Napa Valley region. Yountville is located approximately 50 miles north of San Francisco.

The Napa County Sheriff’s Office said it is continuing to investigate and will forward its findings to the district attorney. No further details on the condition of either vehicle or the identity of the parked car’s owner have been released.

* * * Next-level Wagyu, now at ZeroHedge Store

Tyler Durden Sun, 07/05/2026 - 13:25
Tyler Durden

Vertically Integrated Nations, Production For Security, And Rate Cuts

Zero Rss
2 months 3 weeks ago
Vertically Integrated Nations, Production For Security, And Rate Cuts

Submitted by Peter Tchir of Academy Securities

Let’s start with the important stuff: Hope you are having a great 4th of July 250th Anniversary Weekend.

Yields gained back some ground after the relatively weak jobs report (headline plus revisions was negative, the private sector underwhelmed, and unemployment only dropped because the labor force participation rate dropped by a relatively large 0.3%).

I will continue to pound the table (or rant and rave as the case may be) that this Fed Will Cut Rates in September. That was our main topic of discussion on the Bloomberg Radio segment above (and I did get to hear Tom Keene say my view looked smarter after the jobs data, than it had before the jobs data, when we spoke). MarketWatch also picked up on the interview and our prospect for cuts rather than hikes.

I have yet to hear compelling arguments on:

  • Why the Cleveland Fed’s Rent metrics are not more accurate than what is currently used in “official” data?
  • Why Truflation doesn’t deserve a lot more attention than it gets?

If anything, we’ve received comments pointing us to additional indices, surveys, etc., that likely present a more accurate picture of inflation (and they virtually all signal that we understated inflation post-Covid (hence Affordability is the Issue) and we are overstating the inflation rate now).

I really like the 2-year Treasury here, given what the market is pricing versus what I expect the reality to be.

The TV interview wound up focusing on AI. It wasn’t the topic I was most looking forward to, but was difficult to avoid when overnight headlines included:

  • OpenAI potentially “giving” the U.S. a 5% stake.
  • Meta offering to sell compute rather than using all of their compute for themselves.
  • Apple requesting the ability to use Chinese made memory chips, in phones to be sold in China.

On any given day, one of those headlines would be interesting. To get all 3 in one day certainly attracted a lot of attention! It gave us a chance to talk about some of our main themes in AI:

  • The need for the AI and Data Center Industry to ramp up their community outreach. My view that this industry needs to do a better job convincing people why they not only want and need AI, but that they also want it in their backyard.
  • The comparisons to the fiber buildout during the dot.com boom!
  • The risks of an AI “Revolution” (i.e., political backlash with negative consequences) and the risk to jobs. Trying to answer the question of whether humans are the horses in the current “Buggy Whip” transformation playing out. I admit that every time I write Buggy Whip, Rihanna’s song comes to mind, which is maybe why I didn’t say it on national TV. 

In case you missed it, Academy published this month’s Around the World this week focusing on Iran, Cuba, Russia/Ukraine, and Economic Tensions with China.

ProSec 2026 and Vertically Integrated Nations

We started 2026 with a comprehensive view of ProSec 2026 (yes, the font is obnoxiously large, but if you haven’t read that report, we urge you to read it now). The concept had evolved from National Production for National Security and Resilience to ProSec. There are many names attached to what is going on (HALO, Mercantilism, etc.) but we think ProSec captures the concept of “needing to produce more of some things for true national security” more fulsomely. Academy does have the advantage of being able to tap into the Geopolitical Intelligence Group for behind the scenes insight into national security discussions, both here and abroad.

Before we update our thoughts on ProSec, I want to go back to something we published back in October of 2025 – Is ProSec the New ESG? Even suggesting that something could replace ESG, let alone something along the lines of ProSec replacing ESG, less than a year ago, seemed half (or fully) insane. Now, people mostly shrug, or provide us examples (at the very least) of how they’ve seen thinking in their organization adapt ESG to incorporate the key elements of ProSec.

We won’t spend much time on these two thoughts today, but they should be highlighted:

  • ProSec is Going Global. We won’t spend time on this today because it seems self-evident (and also I haven’t been able to work in the lyrics of Going Underground to Going Global, but I’m confident that eventually I will).
  • ProSec will continue regardless of election outcomes. We won’t dwell on this, but the 250th birthday of a nation doesn’t seem like the appropriate time to sound political, and it is pretty difficult to not sound political when addressing this subject (though I think we have done a decent job on that front in reports, interviews, and presentations).
A Nation as a Human Being

We have discussed Vertically Integrated Nations, but I think this concept of trying to think of a nation as a living breathing organism (which it pretty much is) helps frame the prioritization of ProSec Industries.

The decision to include this chart from the start of the year report makes me cringe for a couple of reasons:

  • The chart is pretty pathetic looking, even by my relatively basic charting skills. I spent some time using AI to try to make some cooler looking charts, but I was struggling, and it is a long weekend, and I might as well just accept my inability to make nice charts.
  • I was horribly worried the chart would be missing a lot! Not like 6 months is a long time to withstand the pressures of time, but the chart (as ugly as it is) has held up reasonably well, at least in terms of the information it was trying to convey.
    • One regret (and poor decision) that we rectified months ago is that we gave SPACE short shrift. We did not highlight space appropriately. We did “lump it into” Defense, but if we wanted to redo the industry table, SPACE would have its own vertical.

The “chart” attempts to convey the following information:

  • The sectors that we view as playing a crucial role in ProSec. For many people, their first thoughts on Production for Security is Military and Defense spending and production. That is only a small part of ProSec (at least in the U.S. which has invested heavily in this space for decades; whereas it might be a bigger part of ProSec for countries that have neglected spending to protect themselves on the military front).
  • The width of the columns was meant to give an indication of the importance (the wider the column, the more there is to be done in that sector). I’d probably give SPACE its own column now.
  • The colors were meant to be a “guesstimate” of how easy or difficult it would be. I’d probably reduce the amount of green in AI and Data Centers, as well as Electron Production, because I did think there would be a lot more progress on deregulation than there has been. NIMBY is strong in much of this country. I thought the defense spending would be easier (green), and may have underestimated entrenched politics and how long it can take the military to change direction. Drones seem like such an obvious area to focus on, and Undersecretary of War (for Personnel and Readiness) Tata had discussed the importance even before he submitted his information for the confirmation process. It seems slower to develop. I do think that Europe needs an Airbus type of consortium framework for drones to get some sort of reasonable defense capability built in a reasonably short time.

Let’s look at how we’d prioritize them now.

The ProSec Equivalents of Air

Humans cannot go more than a few minutes without air. We cannot exist without air. It is just that plain and simple.

What is the equivalent of air to a nation?

  • Electricity. Not too long ago Spain suffered a major disruption in its ability to get electricity to its people. Industry (and the economy) ground to a halt. People died. Lack of electricity is hampering rescue efforts in Venezuela. The ability to generate electricity and get it to where it is needed should be one of the most important priorities for a country! We were trying to “solve” for many things with “sustainable energy” and I fully expect over time, we will get there on sustainable energy, but first and foremost we must prioritize our ability to generate plentiful amounts of electricity and ensure that it can get to where it is needed. This is a hill I’m prepared to die on. We need all forms of electricity and a plan to build out a backbone with supplemental capacity, that can, over time, include a different mix than today, but we (and every nation) needs to focus on this (possibly with a single-minded determination that I don’t think we’ve seen, even in the U.S.).
  • Semiconductors. Every time I think that maybe chips aren’t the equivalent of “air” to a nation, at least a developed nation, I find it difficult to move it lower in prioritization. I had picked Intel in my start of the year favorites, but I regret not being even more vocally bullish on companies with strong U.S. roots in the industry.
  • Fresh Water. Maybe living in the United States and Canada has made me “complacent” on water. I didn’t really include it as a critical industry or part of our U.S. ProSec theme, largely because it is so abundant. We have been arguing that areas with access to fresh water are increasingly attractive to industry, but that was more a function of ProSec than part of ProSec. We will be thinking of how to correct this mistake, especially for nations where access to fresh water is far from a given and needs to be part of their version of ProSec.

We will discuss the allocations between:

  • Domestic production.
  • Working with close allies and neighbors.
  • Using the “open” market and global trade.

Those allocations will differ by country (maybe even by region). They will differ based on their trust of their neighbors and allies, as well as what the neighbors and allies can produce.

In conversations, the 80/20 rule has been discussed. That makes sense to a large degree. Achieve 80% of what you can, for 20% of the cost. Having said that, I would be willing to pay more to do more domestically with respect to sectors that are the equivalent of air to a nation.

The ProSec Equivalents of Hypothermia

General Spider Marks is a wealth of knowledge. He pointed out that humans in cold water die within 3 hours. He is correct, and it would fill a gap in my narrative, but it just doesn’t resonate with how I think about humans – sorry Spider.

The ProSec Equivalents of Water

Humans cannot last more than about 3 days without water.

What are the ProSec sectors that are the equivalent of water? Yeah, I get that I put fresh water in the air category, but work with me.

  • Some processed and refined rare earths and critical minerals. First, for almost all rare earths, critical minerals, and commodities, I would prioritize the smelting, processing, and refining over the extraction. Sourcing the underlying elements is important, but the current/real bottleneck is the processing, refining, and smelting! The U.S. Department of the Interior is one source that can help prioritize which subsectors will be treated as the highest priorities. It is clear that the U.S. has taken the time to prioritize certain things and is executing a plan around those priorities.
  • Defense. Other countries probably need to do this. For the U.S. I would prioritize drones (surface, air, underwater, etc.) as well as SPACE. Where are we at risk of being deficient? It seems incredibly difficult to argue that after years of Russia/Ukraine and a couple months of Iran/U.S. that we don’t need to close the gap in asymmetric warfare. We still need the exquisite platforms, but we cannot be expending difficult to make, time consuming to make, and expensive to make weapons systems to defend against cheap drones. In space, the U.S. is the world leader, but we may not have spent enough time and energy on “protecting” space, from potential bad actors. For the U.S., for the vast majority of areas, I’d put defense into the next category, but right now, it is difficult to argue that drones and space aren’t the equivalent of water when we look to the nation’s ability to be secure and prosperous.
  • Some portion of biotech and pharma. Similar to the rare earths sector, not everything within the biotech and pharma sectors should be given the same priority that humans give to having access to fresh water, but some should be. This industry is incredibly complex, and I’m not yet sure of how I would even think about prioritizing this. I suspect that the current administration has some of the same issues. Tiering rare earths and critical minerals seems relatively simple compared to tiering things in this sector (not that it is less important to do so, it is just a lot more difficult). Should we be more worried about the highest end of tech? Or should we be more worried that the precursors and base drugs come primarily from China and India? Or both?
  • A smattering of some heavy industry, commodities, and maybe even ship building. On the ship building side, drones and subs would be a priority. Surface and underwater drones will play a key role in warfare going forward. Submarines, according to most of Academy’s GIG members, is one area where we are still massively ahead of any other nation. Let’s maximize that advantage.
The ProSec Equivalents of Food

Apparently, humans can go 3 weeks without food. 3 weeks without food seems ridiculous, but I’m told it is true. So, if you are part of ProSec but not given the priority of air or water, you are part of the “food” category.

I did not include food as a sector, which might be fair in the U.S. with the amazing agricultural bounty we have, but it would be a sector for many other countries.

Just because the “food equivalent” is the “third” category of ProSec doesn’t mean these sectors shouldn’t be given a much higher priority than they have been. The rest of biotech, pharma, rare earths, commodities, ship building, heavy industry, and defense all need attention and prioritization.

We all spend time making sure that we can put food on the table for our families. Prayers include “our daily bread.” We celebrate as a nation – Thanksgiving – of which an element of the thanks is directed toward food.

Investment, prioritization, etc. will be done for these sectors (and subsectors too), but there is probably more time before it is urgent to be overweight these areas in your portfolio (for asset managers) or in your supply chain (for corporations).

The Founding Fathers Would Likely Be In Favor of ProSec

While I don’t want to appropriate the 4th of July, it does seem like ProSec is about as American as things can get in the economy. I do argue that ProSec is doing a couple of major things:

  • Revitalizing areas and geographic regions that may not have been engines of growth for the past few decades. Areas that are ideal for manufacturing, that struggled while the U.S. was busy de-industrializing? Could we see the return of the “Company Town”? Think about the access to logistics for some of the “company towns.” Highways were built around their production. Many are situated on useful waterways. Certainly, access to fresh water helped situate many of these “company towns.” There are the bones of real prosperity there – historic, often magnificent buildings. Affordability may also be addressed by this revitalization. There may well be new “company towns” formed. I think the potential benefits for affordability and to geographically spreading wealth cannot be overestimated. Think about pride in communities, which already abounds in the U.S., growing! I’m excited about this front and think commercial real estate needs to be thinking about what areas will benefit from ProSec.
  • A Resurgence of the Middle Class. I’ve always thought that the “middle class” was more of a vibe than an “income level.” Going home for the weekend and knowing will you have a job Monday morning, and that job is important to the fabric (and survival/sustainability) of a nation is very different than wondering if the owners found someone, somewhere in the world, who will deliver something 20% cheaper than you can. Pride in jobs and knowing that whatever you are doing (maybe even writing weekend financial missives) is part of something bigger.

Since I’m sounding a bit like I’ve got the rose-colored glasses on, I will say one thing that can be construed as negative, because it probably is.

When I think about humans’ ability to live without air, water, or food, versus our ability to adapt to a 1 degree temperature change over the course of a decade, you can guess what I’d prioritize. I am all for having bigger plans for a “better” future, but that “better” future should make sure we are taken care of with respect to things we cannot live long without.

I hope everyone is enjoying their long weekend and I hope that not only does this report resonate with you on the business front, but that I can also convey why I’m so excited about this concept on a much bigger level than what we do in our day jobs!

Tyler Durden Sun, 07/05/2026 - 12:50
Tyler Durden

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  • UAE's Next $25 Billion Bet On India Includes Energy Sector
  • Duke Lacrosse Hoax 2.0? Cornell DA Reopens Rape Case - Accuser Described Sex As 'Voluntary, Conscious, And Consensual'
  • Another Federal Judge Strikes Down New York's $75 Billion Climate Superfund
  • Texas Governor Declares Disaster Over Soaring Diesel Prices
  • Trump Shoots Down Federal AI Regulations, Floats Watchdog 'Committee' And Self-Policing
  • The Industrialization Of Fraud: How Global Scam Farms Are Evolving To Target Your Wealth
  • Oil Slides As Qatar Touts 'Talks' Again; Iran Struck Large Crude Tanker Overnight
  • Trump Launches America.Gov Website Simplifying Access To Government Services
  • Senate Passes 'Protect College Sports Act'
  • Supreme Court Lets Trump's Third-Country Deportations Resume, Takes Case
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