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Gunfire Erupts Inside Philippine Senate As Former 'Drug War' Enforcer Evades International Arrest Warrant

At least a dozen gunshots rang out inside the Philippine Senate building in Manila earlier on Wednesday as police and marines moved to arrest Senator Ronald "Bato" Dela Rosa on an International Criminal Court warrant for alleged crimes against humanity linked to former President Rodrigo Duterte's brutal war on drugs, a campaign that left more than 6,000 suspected drug dealers dead in operations.

Reuters reports that it is unclear who fired the burst of shots inside the Senate building, but it occurred as Dela Rosa was taking refuge inside the building amid efforts to arrest the senator on an ICC warrant for alleged crimes against humanity.

BREAKING:

Gunfire erupts inside the Philippine Senate 🇵🇭

A volley of more than a dozen gunshots broke out inside the Senate building during a tense standoff involving Senator Ronald “Bato” dela Rosa.

The former national police chief under Rodrigo Duterte has been holed up in… pic.twitter.com/amR09Xm3vr

— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) May 13, 2026

Other media outlets captured the chaotic moments when shots rang out in the Senate building's hallway.

"About 15 shots were fired, and we were forced to pull back," Al Jazeera reporter Jamela Alindogan said, adding that security forces then ordered the evacuation of the building.

Gunshots have been heard in the Philippine senate, where Senator Ronald Dela Rosa, who is wanted by the ICC for crimes against humanity, remains holed up to evade arrest.

Military personnel reportedly arrived inside the senate building, some carrying assault rifles. pic.twitter.com/AjL4Yx4f12

— Al Jazeera Breaking News (@AJENews) May 13, 2026

Dela Rosa posted a video on Facebook earlier, anticipating his arrest, and urged citizens to come to the Senate building to block his arrest: "I am appealing to you. I hope you can help me. Do not allow another Filipino to be brought to The Hague."

On Tuesday, Dela Rosa, a former police chief and top enforcer of former President Rodrigo Duterte's war on drugs, urged President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. not to allow the ICC to arrest him.

The ICC unsealed its arrest warrant on Monday, accusing Dela Rosa of the same crimes as Duterte, who is awaiting trial in the Netherlands.

Al Jazeera's Alindogan said that while violent incidents are not unusual in Manila, it was highly unusual for this type of chaotic event to occur in the Senate building, "where there's supposed to be some sort of civility."

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/13/2026 - 13:55

Ugly, Tailing 30Y Auction Makes History With First 5%+ Yield Since The Great Quant Crash Of Aug 2007

Moments ago, the last refunding auction of the week, the sale of $25BN in 30Y paper, made history: it was the first 30Y auction to print with a high yield above 5%, and a coupon of 5%, since August 2007... which as veteran traders will recall was the month of the historic quant crash which marked the S&P highs at the time and eventually culminated in the global financial crisis. 

The auction priced at a high yield of 5.046%, up sharply from 4.876% in April, and tailed the 5.041% When Issued by 0.5bps, the second consecutive tail following 4 stop-throughs. 

But, as noted above, what is more notable was that this was the first 5% interest rate coupon 30Y auction, and the the first 30Y auction with a high yield above 5% since... August 2007 when surging rates sparked a quant crash. Come to think of it, unlike retail momentum chasers, quants have had a terrible month. How much longer can they last? But we digress... 

Going back to the auction, the uglyness was all around: the bid to cover was 2.303, down from 2.385, below the 2.43 six auction average and the lowest since Nob 2025.

Internals were not quite as bad, with Indirects taking down 66.6%, up from 64.1% in April and just below the 66.8% recent average. And with Directs awarded 21.74%, Dealers were left with 11.7%. 

Overall, this was an ugly, tailing auction, but the question on everyone's lips is whether today's quction will - like in August 2007 - be the VaR shock equivalent of a bond auction that pops this particular bubble. For the answer keep a close eye on quants who are suffering badly. 

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/13/2026 - 13:35

Imminent Supreme Court Rulings To Watch For

Authored by Sam Dorman via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Birthright citizenship, girls sports, the definition of Election Day, and other hot-button topics are on the line in upcoming Supreme Court decisions.

Illustration by The Epoch Times, Madalina Kilroy/The Epoch Times

The court’s 2025–2026 term is expected to end in June with a series of rulings that could impact social issues and President Donald Trump’s agenda.

The last scheduled oral argument was held on April 29; the justices considered whether Trump wrongfully terminated deportation protections for thousands of Haitian and Syrian nationals. That decision and a ruling on Trump’s order restricting birthright citizenship could influence immigration policy for decades to come.

So far, the court has already issued opinions on Trump’s tariffs and redistricting. Its remaining decisions could change how elections are conducted, as well as alter the balance of power between Congress and the president.

Here are the main decisions expected before the end of June.

Birthright Citizenship

A key part of Trump’s immigration agenda has been his attempt to limit who receives American citizenship. The 14th Amendment states that “all persons born or naturalized in the United States, and subject to the jurisdiction thereof, are citizens of the United States and of the State wherein they reside.”

Historically, the executive branch interpreted this amendment to grant citizenship to babies born to illegal immigrants. Trump changed this interpretation on his first day in office, passing an executive order stating that the amendment only applied to children who had at least one parent with citizenship or lawful permanent residency.

In Trump v. Barbara, the president asked the Supreme Court to intervene after a federal judge blocked his executive order. During oral argument on April 1, the Justice Department said that parents should be legal residents or have some kind of allegiance to the United States before their children receive citizenship. The justices, however, seemed skeptical and indicated they may view citizenship more broadly.

Migrants, including a pregnant Haitian woman seeking to give birth in the United States, are apprehended by a U.S. Border Patrol agent in Yuma, Ariz., on Dec. 7, 2021. The Supreme Court is expected to rule on the constitutionality of a Trump executive order aimed at restricting birthright citizenship before the end of June. John Moore/Getty Images Girls Sports

Another highly anticipated decision focuses on Idaho’s and West Virginia’s laws preventing males from participating in girls and women’s sports. Federal appeals courts blocked those laws, stating that they conflict with another portion of the 14th Amendment known as the equal protection clause. That clause generally prohibits laws that classify or discriminate on the basis of certain characteristics.

The appeals courts said the state laws conflict with that clause because they classify individuals on the basis of their sex and “transgender status.” The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Fourth Circuit also said West Virginia’s law violated Title IX of the Civil Rights Act. That law prohibits sex-based discrimination in federally funded education.

The justices heard oral argument in January for the cases, known as Little v. Hecox and West Virginia v. B.P.J. Overall, the justices seemed inclined to uphold the states’ laws.

People take part in a rally outside the U.S. Supreme Court as justices hear arguments in two cases in which states have banned males from participating in female-only sports in Washington on Jan. 13, 2025. Madalina Kilroy/The Epoch Times Monsanto’s Weedkiller

Monsanto’s herbicide, known as Roundup, has cost the company millions of dollars following lawsuits alleging one of its ingredients, glyphosate, increases cancer risk.

One of those lawsuits made it to the Supreme Court in April and could determine how much Monsanto has to pay in future lawsuits. The case, Monsanto v. Durnell, focused on a Missouri jury that held the company liable for not warning about glyphosate’s purported risks.

Monsanto told the Supreme Court that the jury’s verdict was based on a faulty interpretation of the law. The jury said Monsanto was liable under a Missouri law that requires warnings for consumer products. Monsanto argued that the jury interpreted the law in a way that conflicted with another law passed at the federal level.

The Supreme Court’s eventual decision is expected to touch on a legal doctrine known as preemption, which says that federal law takes precedence over state law when there is a conflict between the two. In this case, Monsanto said the Federal Insecticide, Fungicide, and Rodenticide Act should take precedence.

“The People vs. the Poison” protesters rallied to protest Bayer/Monsanto regarding cancer-linked risks from the Roundup weedkiller outside the U.S. Supreme Court in Washington on April 27, 2026. Tasos Katopodis/Getty Images

That law gives the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency authority to regulate chemicals such as glyphosate. Because the agency already approved glyphosate’s use and didn’t require additional warnings, Monsanto said Missouri couldn’t require more either. Durnell argued that the verdict didn’t conflict with federal law and that Missouri should be able to protect its citizens’ health.

Trump’s Ability to Fire Bureaucrats

One of the main legal complaints leveled during Trump’s second administration was that he fired high-level bureaucrats without good reason. Leaders of so-called “independent” agencies, such as the Federal Trade Commission (FTC), sued, alleging that Trump didn’t show the type of cause federal law required of presidents when firing officials.

In Trump v. Slaughter, Trump asked the Supreme Court to intervene after a lower court blocked his attempt to fire FTC Commissioner Rebecca Slaughter. The justices seemed inclined in December 2025 to not just allow her firing, but also expand the authority presidents have in removing bureaucrats like her.

Their eventual decision could overturn a 90-year-old precedent from Humphrey’s Executor v. United States. In that 1935 case, the Supreme Court held that former President Franklin D. Roosevelt wrongly fired a former FTC commissioner and that Congress could restrict his ability to do so.

The Trump administration argues that the Constitution gives the president greater authority and that Congress cannot use laws such as the FTC Act to restrict his ability to remove bureaucrats.

Then-Federal Trade Commissioner Rebecca Slaughter participates in a privacy roundtable at CES 2020 at the Las Vegas Convention Center in Las Vegas on Jan. 7, 2020. David Becker/Getty Images Fed Independence

Like the FTC Act, another law, known as the Federal Reserve Act, said presidents couldn’t remove high-level officials without cause. That was the law that Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook cited when she challenged Trump’s attempt to fire her last year.

Trump removed Cook while citing allegations that she committed mortgage fraud, something she has denied. During oral argument in January, the Supreme Court wrestled with multiple questions: whether Trump gave Cook enough due process before firing her, how the firing would impact the economy, and how Trump’s view of his authority would impact the Federal Reserve’s independence.

Overall, the justices seemed inclined to side with Cook. The case, Trump v. Cook, followed other decisions in which the Supreme Court suggested that the Federal Reserve was more independent than agencies such as the FTC and that its members therefore deserved additional protections.

Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook (R) arrives for a board meeting at the Federal Reserve building in Washington on March 19, 2026. Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images Definition of ‘Election Day’

The 2020 presidential election reinvigorated debate over mail-in ballots, a controversial method of voting that Trump and others argue is vulnerable to fraud. Multiple states, including Mississippi, have allowed mail-in ballots to be counted after Election Day as long as they are postmarked on or before that day.

Trump and the Republican National Committee argue that practice violates a federal law that defines Election Day as “the Tuesday next after the first Monday in November.”

When the case, Watson v. Republican National Committee, reached the Supreme Court, the Trump administration supported the committee’s position.

“‘Election day’ was the day all voting needed to be completed; and the act of voting was not complete until a ballot had been officially received,” the Justice Department told the court.

Mississippi argues the law simply requires that voters make their choice by Election Day, not that their ballots are counted.

Election officials count absentee ballots at a polling place located in the Town of Beloit fire station near Beloit, Wis., on Nov. 3, 2020. Scott Olson/Getty Images

During oral argument in March, the justices seemed more likely to side with the committee. “We’re moving in this direction,” Justice Samuel Alito said. “We don’t have Election Day anymore. We have election month or we have election months.”

Deportation Protections

The court’s most recent oral argument focused on the Department of Homeland Security’s termination of deportation protections for thousands of Haitians and Syrians. “Temporary protected status” prevents nationals of certain countries from being removed if conditions in their home countries would make returning unsafe.

Under President Barack Obama, the department granted that status for Haiti, which was impacted by the 2010 earthquake, and Syria, which has seen ongoing political turmoil and armed conflict.

Former Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem terminated those protections last year, prompting lawsuits and federal judges’ orders blocking those terminations.

The justices heard oral argument in the cases, known as Mullin v. Doe and Trump v. Miot, on April 29. They considered whether those judges exceeded their authority under the Immigration and Nationality Act, which generally prohibits judicial review of the department’s determinations about temporary protected status.

Guerline Jozef, co-founder and Executive Director of Haitian Bridge Alliance, speaks in front of the U.S. Supreme Court in Washington on March 16, 2026. The Court agreed on March 16 to consider the Trump administration’s bid to strip Haitians and Syrians of temporary deportation protections. The Department of Homeland Security has announced plans to end so-called Temporary Protected Status for some 350,000 Haitians and 6,000 Syrians. Roberto Schmidt/AFP via Getty Images

Lower court judges, however, said the administration still had to follow certain procedures, but that it didn’t when it terminated those protections. The justices also considered a federal judge’s argument that the administration likely acted with racial animus toward Haitians and therefore violated the Constitution.

Campaign Finance

How much protection does the First Amendment afford political parties when they spend money on campaigns? That’s one of the questions the Supreme Court is expected to address in a case called National Republican Senatorial Committee v. Federal Election Committee.

The case originated with a lawsuit brought by then-Senate candidate JD Vance, who argued that Congress violated the First Amendment with the Federal Election Campaign Act. That law restricts how much political parties and candidates’ campaigns can coordinate their spending.

The Supreme Court upheld that restriction in 2001 on the basis that coordination opened a backdoor for corruption. In its upcoming decision, the court could maintain its prior position or overrule itself while siding with Republicans.

Read the rest here...

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/13/2026 - 13:35

Up To $170 Billion Needed To Secure Full Domestic Nuclear Fuel Supply Chain

To support current commercial nuclear operations, plus 300 GW of new nuclear capacity for a total of roughly 400 GW by 2050, all fueled domestically, the country would need to invest between $105 billion and $170 billion across the entire nuclear fuel cycle.

Is it still called a bottleneck if the entire industry is the problem? 

The consulting firm McKinsey & Company used the most aspirational scenario from the Trump administration’s May 2025 executive orders as its benchmark for their recent report. That means rebuilding capacity from mining and milling through conversion, enrichment, fabrication, and even reprocessing.

It's looking more and more like the $2.7 billion award from the DOE for domestic enrichment barely scratches the surface:

• $15-20 billion for mining and milling
• $30-45 billion for conversion
• $30-40 billion for enrichment
• $10-20 billion for fabrication
• $20-45 billion for reprocessing

These figures assume a mix of new and existing reactors, including Gen IV designs that will demand high-assay low-enriched uranium (HALEU).

We have documented the vulnerabilities for months. Today the United States imports about 99 percent of the raw uranium ore needed for its commercial fleet… 

With milling capacity effectively nonexistent and conversion limited to a single operating facility… 

And enrichment capacity covers only about one-third of domestic needs…

The gaps leave utilities exposed to geopolitical risks and price volatility, a point we highlighted when uranium spot prices pulled back earlier this year even as long-term supply deficits widened…

Uranium: the next gold pic.twitter.com/2SSjvRkdSg

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) December 12, 2025

Progress is

Uranium: the next gold pic.twitter.com/2SSjvRkdSg

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) December 12, 2025 ">accelerating, however. We reported on the DOE’s Nuclear Fuel Cycle Defense Production Act Consortium, which has met repeatedly to map out a seven-year “Nuclear Dominance – 3 by 33” plan covering every link from mining to reprocessing. 

DOE has also awarded nearly $3 billion for enrichment projects, including $900 million each to Centrus Energy and General Matter, while the Export-Import Bank has backed up to $4.2 billion in additional financing. Centrus recently committed $560 million to scale centrifuge manufacturing in Oak Ridge, and we covered its joint-venture discussions with Oklo for HALEU deconversion services.

The private sector is also making progress on their own, not wanting to wait for the government to sort itself out and attempt to take market share while it's up for grabs. 

Uranium Energy Corp is expanding ISR mining and advancing conversion licensing. New entrants like FluxPoint Energy and LIS Technologies are targeting conversion and next-generation laser enrichment facilities, aiming for commercial operations before 2030. 

We also noted Goldman Sachs’ updates showing persistent supply-demand mismatches that continue to support higher uranium prices over the coming decades.

McKinsey stresses that capital alone will not suffice. Permitting reform, infrastructure build-out, workforce development, and advanced technologies will prove critical to compressing the long lead times inherent in fuel-cycle projects. The firm acknowledges 100% domestic sourcing will prove challenging, yet the analysis underscores that options exist if stakeholders maintain focus.
 

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/13/2026 - 13:00

B200s Or B-2s?

By Bas van Geffen, senior macro strategist of Rabobank

Concerns about the Middle East continued to dictate markets yesterday. The Strait of Hormuz remains closed, and there were no signs that this will change soon. Oil prices rose further. Dated Brent jumped 5% on the day to top $111.

Alongside the rise in benchmark energy prices, yields increased too. 10y US Treasury yields closed around 5bp higher, and 10y German Bund yields rose 6bp to 3.1%, dragging broader EUR yields up. Equities struggled. European bourses closed around 1.5% lower, but the S&P pared most of its losses after the European close, so the Euro Stoxx index may catch up to its US counterpart today.

This reversal happened after oil prices came off their intraday highs, and as news broke that Nvidia CEO Huang will join the US delegation to China. President Trump indicated that he wants to focus on economic issues during his summit with President Xi, more so than on geopolitical issues in the Middle East. Markets certainly seem hopeful that Trump and Xi will discuss B200 chips rather than B-2 bombers.

Of course, the Iran war complicates negotiations between the two leaders. China agrees to oppose any toll scheme for safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz, according to the US State Department. Meanwhile, Iraq and Pakistan have reportedly made deals with Iran to safeguard oil and LNG shipments from the Gulf – underscoring that Iran is able to effectively control the flow of energy through the Strait of Hormuz. China has also further diversified its oil imports. This may make China more resilient to prolonged disruptions in Hormuz, while it also cuts off more potential income for Iran.

But China will probably want something in return. President Trump will reportedly discuss US weapons sales to Taiwan with Xi, breaking with a decades-long US tradition. US allies in Asia are alarmed that Trump may agree to Xi’s request to delay or stop deliveries. That’s a longer-term geopolitical risk, but markets may shrug off any such potential concessions if the US and China report progress on economic issues.

And any optimism from the Trump-Xi summit may be overshadowed by developments in the Middle East. It’s unlikely that tensions will flare up again during the summit, but that’s only two days of respite. On his way to China, President Trump told reporters that stopping Iran’s nuclear programme outweighs Americans’ economic pain. The US presidents’ comments add to concerns that tensions in the Middle East may flare up again after the summit.

Adding further unease about the US’ next steps in the Middle East, the Wall Street Journal reports that the US president spoke with his U.A.E. counterpart to discuss “mutual interests.” This news follows on the WSJ’ report that the United Arab Emirates had secretly carried out military strikes in Iran.

Elsewhere, gilt yields’ rollercoaster ride continues, as domestic politics stack on top of geopolitical risks. Even the BBC is talking about intraday moves in gilts now, which is never a sign that things are going well. Pressure on a defiant PM Starmer is building. Several ministers resigned from their posts yesterday, after dozens of MPs had already called on Starmer to resign. Today, the 11 unions that support the Labour party are expected to issue a joint statement that calls for a roadmap to a new party leader into the next general elections.

Uncertainty about the UK’s leadership continues to weigh on both UK sovereign yields and the currency.

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/13/2026 - 12:45

Qatar Asks Vessels At Key LNG Port To Go Dark for Safety

Submitted by Charles Kennedy of OilPrice.com

Qatar has requested LNG vessels near its Ras Laffan LNG port to switch off their transponders as part of safety measures at the key export port of the world’s second-largest LNG exporter before the war, anonymous sources with knowledge of the plan told Bloomberg on Tuesday.  

The de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz has trapped about 20% of daily global LNG flows, mostly those previously shipping out of Qatar and part of the UAE’s LNG flows. 

In addition, Iranian drone and missile strikes on energy infrastructure in the region has damaged Qatar’s key LNG liquefaction complex Ras Laffan, the world’s single largest such facility. Due to the attacks, QatarEnergy has been forced to declare force majeure for up to five years on some long-term LNG contracts and has advised that full capacity could take up to five years to restore following extensive damage from the strikes. 

The waters around Qatar have seen increased security threats since the war began on February 28. After more than two months of total blockage of Qatari shipments out of the Strait of Hormuz, the major Gulf LNG exporter is now apparently seeking to avoid being targeted. 

At least nine LNG tankers that were anchored near Qatar stopped sending signals via their Automatic Identification System from May 11, vessel-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg showed, in a sign that Qatar may have indeed asked ships to go dark to avoid being targeted. 

A tanker laden with LNG from Qatar successfully passed the Strait of Hormuz this weekend, the first such transit since February 28.

Crude tankers have also successfully exited the Strait in recent days, after going dark, according to shipping data cited by Reuters. 

“Commercial shipping and maritime security activity around the Strait of Hormuz are increasingly shifting into dark or emissions-controlled conditions,” maritime intelligence firm Windward said on Monday.  

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/13/2026 - 12:30

Goldman Flags Troubling Mortgage Delinquency Rise Across This U.S. Region

Mortgage delinquencies fell slightly in March, with the first-lien delinquency rate declining to 3.35%, down 37 basis points from February, as seasonal factors and tax refunds supported borrowers.

The real estate and mortgage industry outlet HousingWire cited Intercontinental Exchange’s May 2026 Mortgage Monitor report, which showed that while the overall mortgage delinquency rate fell in March, there was still concern over serious delinquencies and foreclosures, which are up by 154,000 borrowers from one year ago.

The increase was driven mostly by FHA loans, which rose by 164,000 and now account for a record 55% of seriously past-due mortgages. Overall, 1.6% of active mortgages are seriously delinquent, up 20% year over year.

A lot of questions here...

During the Biden administration, H-1B visa holders were buying houses with 97-100% financing. 97% would come from the FHA, with the rest coming from state first-time home buyer programs.

Zero money down. Thanks to programs that were supposed to be helping low-income American… https://t.co/0ZaLGV0Wru pic.twitter.com/WvlRjgYeJV

— Robert Sterling (@RobertMSterling) May 13, 2026

Adding to the mortgage delinquency story is Goldman analyst Jason Acosta, who released a note earlier today, showing what he described to clients as the "chart of the day."

The chart indicates that mortgage past-due rates are highest across parts of the Deep South, with Mississippi and Louisiana as the worst-performing states, followed by elevated stress in Alabama, Texas, Indiana, Georgia, West Virginia, Oklahoma, Maryland, Pennsylvania, and others.

"On a national level, mortgage delinquencies eased in March, yet higher-severity stress remained elevated even amid the strongest monthly gain in U.S. home prices in two years," Acosta said.

He added, "We just released a new widget looking at past-due rates on a state-by-state basis below, with updates incoming to select between ranges of 30-59 days, 60-89 days, and 90 days+."

Here is the chart: What is the mortgage past-due rate by state?

Latest on the housing market:

• Housing Market's Crucial "Spring Selling Season" Is In Tatters

The read we have here is that mortgage distress is becoming increasingly concentrated in lower-income Southern states, even as the national delinquency rate improved modestly overall.

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/13/2026 - 12:15

Treasury Department Alerts US Banks To Suspected Iranian Money Laundering Efforts

Authored by Victoria Friedman via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The U.S. Treasury Department’s Financial Crimes ​Enforcement Network (FinCEN) on May 11 issued an alert to financial institutions warning them of efforts by ​the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) to evade sanctions.

The U.S. Department of the Treasury in Washington on June 30, 2025.Madalina Kilroy/The Epoch Times

FinCEN said in a statement that the IRGC has been facilitating and laundering the proceeds of illicit oil sales using networks of financial facilitators and shell companies. The alert provides red flags on the IRGC’s oil smuggling, digital assets, and front-company abuse to aid financial institutions in detecting and reporting suspicious activity, the statement said.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that financial institutions have a responsibility to stop this activity.

“Degraded by Economic Fury, the Iranian military is desperately trying to fund its weapons programs and terrorist proxies,” Bessent said.

“Treasury will continue to deny the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps access to the financial networks it exploits to fund its terrorist acts. Financial institutions should be on notice that they have a responsibility to detect suspicious activity and stop it in its tracks.”

The Treasury network describes the IRGC as a parallel organization to Tehran’s regular armed forces, which reports directly to the leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei. The IRGC is a U.S.-designated foreign terrorist organization.

Shadow Banking

FinCEN says the IRGC can make money from oil sales by misrepresenting its commercial activities. It smuggles oil using a “shadow fleet” of vessels that operate outside normal maritime rules and are often owned and operated by companies outside Iran.

Proceeds are then laundered through “shadow banking” networks to sell their oil and commodities abroad.

“By using front company accounts outside Iran to receive and remit payments, sanctioned entities like the IRGC are able to conduct transactions through the international financial system without repatriating funds to Iran,” FinCEN said.

The network says that with these proceeds, Iran can fund the procurement and development of weapons, as well as fund terrorist activity abroad.

Sanctions on Iran

The alert comes after President Donald Trump said on May 11 that a ceasefire with Iran was on “life support.”

The president’s remarks follow Tehran’s proposal to end the war over the weekend.

“I would call it the weakest right now after reading that piece of garbage they sent us,” Trump told reporters at the White House. “I didn’t even finish reading it.”

A ceasefire between the United States and Iran went into effect in April, ending weeks of U.S. and Israeli strikes on the country that started on Feb. 28.

The Strait of Hormuz, a key transit point for oil and natural gas, has remained effectively closed in the meantime, sending oil prices surging and rattling stock markets worldwide.

In the meantime, the U.S. military has imposed a naval blockade on Iranian ports. The U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) said on May 11 that 62 commercial ships have been redirected and four ships disabled as it enforced the blockade.

Also on Monday, the U.S. Treasury Department announced sanctions against 12 new targets as part of its “Economic Fury” initiative to disrupt Tehran’s economic and military capacity.

The Treasury said it had designated 12 individuals and entities for their roles in enabling the IRGC’s sale and shipment of Iranian oil to China.

“The IRGC relies on front companies in permissive economic jurisdictions to obfuscate its role in oil sales and funnel the revenue to the Iranian regime. Instead of using this revenue to support the struggling Iranian people, the regime directs it toward weapons development, backing terrorist proxies, and funding security forces that suppress citizens’ freedoms,” the Treasury said.

Joseph Lord and Jack Phillips contributed to this report.

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/13/2026 - 12:00

Palmer Luckey's Anduril Secures $5B At $61B Valuation To Supercharge Killer Drone Production

Palmer Luckey's Anduril announced a $5 billion Series H funding round at a $61 billion valuation, led by Thrive Capital and Andreessen Horowitz. This comes as President Trump's 'war economy' and the rise of 'war unicorns' gain momentum.

Anduril CEO Brian Schimpf wrote in a statement about the Series H funding round, indicating the "financing reflects that shift, and it gives us the ability to continue investing aggressively in manufacturing capacity, research and development, and the infrastructure required to build and field advanced defense systems at scale."

Luckey's Anduril is a new breed of defense technology company that builds autonomous weapons systems, drones, counter-drone platforms, surveillance networks, and AI-powered command-and-control software for the US military.

While most of Silicon Valley has gone soft and signed peace pacts with one another not to dual-use their technology for the military, we have diligently covered rising war unicorns and the Trump administration's push to drive innovation in a space controlled by legacy primes, such as Boeing and Lockheed.

Here are Anduril's products:

• Fury, an autonomous fighter-style aircraft

• Roadrunner and Anvil, counter-drone interceptors

• Ghost, a tactical unmanned aircraft

• Barracuda, a family of autonomous cruise missile-like systems

• Autonomous undersea vehicles and broader defense networking tools

Related:

• Race To Refill U.S. Weapons Stockpiles Will Supercharge War Economy

• L3Harris' Missile Business Files To Go Public As Trump's War Economy Prepares For Launch

• War Economy Returns: From Trucks To Tanks, Pentagon Looks To Automakers To Rebuild America's Arsenal

• DOGE Team At Pentagon Is Urgently Trying To Overhaul America's Lagging Drone Program

And there's this:

• Ukraine, U.S. Draft Defense Deal To Supercharge America's Kamikaze Drone Production 

Follow the money:

• "Serve Your Country": Uncle Sam Seeks Investment Bankers For 'Economic Defense Unit'

The war economy, reshoring, rare earths, and data center buildouts are some of Trump's economic boom agenda.

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/13/2026 - 11:45

Ireland Convicts 78-Year-Old Preacher For Preaching Near Abortion Clinic

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

Ireland is finally safe.

Clive Johnston has been convicted and can no longer menace the public.

Johnson, 78, is a retired pastor who committed the heinous offense of preaching near the Causeway Hospital in Coleraine.

That was considered within the “safe access zone” under Northern Ireland’s Abortion Services (Safe Access Zones) Act.

The Act prohibits “influencing,” “preventing or impeding access,” or “causing harassment, alarm or distress” to a protected person within 100 meters (about 328 feet) of facilities where abortions are performed.

So Johnson was found guilty of “influencing” inside the protected zone and fined 450 pounds (about $614).

Northern Ireland’s Public Prosecution Service told Fox News Digital, “The defendant was found guilty and convicted by the court of doing an act in a safe access zone with the intent of or being reckless as to whether it had the effect of influencing a protected person attending the premises; and failing to comply with a direction to leave a safe access zone.”

The language of the law is absurdly vague and abusively broad. What constitutes an “influence” is undefined and could include any religious, political, or social exchange. Would it include encouragements to have abortions?

It is equally perverse to treat praying or preaching the same as blocking or impeding access to a clinic. Finally, a hospital engages in a wide array of activities that raise religious or political issues that can be the subject of free speech.

We previously saw several cases in the United Kingdom where people were arrested for silently praying near abortion clinics.

For its part, Ireland has been a leader in censorship and the criminalization of speech. As the leader of the Irish Green Party proclaimed, “We are restricting freedom for the public good.”

By the way, his offense was reading John 3:16, including “For God so loved the world that he gave his one and only Son, that whoever believes him shall not perish but have eternal life.”

What could perish in Ireland and the United Kingdom is free expression as speech regulators target bad influences under time, place, and manner laws.

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/13/2026 - 11:30

U.S. Wheat Crop Forecast To Hit Half-Century Low As Drought Hits Breadbasket

Chicago wheat futures surged on Tuesday, hitting two-year highs after the USDA's latest WASDE report signaled a much tighter U.S. supply outlook than traders had anticipated.

Production stress across America's breadbasket is now converging with a megadrought and mounting fertilizer constraints, adding upward pressure on prices at a time when global food prices are rising.

🌾Due to poor crop health and a record-low planted area, the United States will produce the smallest wheat volume since 1972.

2026 winter wheat output (67% of total output) by class is seen at the lowest levels since:
All winter: 1965
Hard red winter: 1957
Soft red winter: 2020 pic.twitter.com/OcIP3DA0VS

— Karen Braun (@kannbwx) May 12, 2026

The USDA forecast 2026/27 U.S. all-wheat production at 1.56 billion bushels, sharply below Wall Street expectations of around 1.74 billion, marking the smallest harvest since 1972.

🇺🇸The U.S. in 2026 is set to harvest the smallest wheat crop in 54 years.

Weather has challenged winter wheat this year and condition ratings have plunged. Pairing low yield with low planted area, USDA projects the smallest U.S. winter wheat harvest since 1965. pic.twitter.com/xe2alJOPyr

— Karen Braun (@kannbwx) May 12, 2026

After the report on Tuesday, Chicago wheat futures jumped to their highest level since May 2024.

The latest WASDE report should come as no surprise to readers, as we have been closely tracking the intensifying drought stress plaguing the U.S. agricultural market:

• Drought Engulfs 60% Of U.S. As Farmers Begin Spring Planting

• UBS Warns Drought Shock Unfolding Across Breadbasket Of America

• Wheat Spread Blows Out As Drought Chaos Plagues America's Breadbasket

Saxo commodities head Ole Hansen penned a note on Wednesday, highlighting just how dire the report is for wheat production:

• USDA projected the smallest U.S. wheat harvest since 1972, triggering sharp gains in both Chicago and Kansas wheat futures.

• Hard red winter wheat production was estimated at the lowest level since 1957 following drought damage across the southern Plains.

• The Bloomberg Grains Index has gained 17% YTD, supported by strong advances in soybean oil, wheat, and related biofuel-linked markets.

• Managed money traders have returned aggressively to agriculture, although wheat positioning remains mixed due to continued contango focus.

Let's not forget America's breadbasket, plagued by drought, as the Middle East energy shock has disrupted the fertilizer trade and may impact harvests later this year. Global food prices are rising.

Related:

• Seven Reasons Why The Hormuz Crisis Has Yet To Cause The Global Economy

Our debate at the start of May featured former Bridgewater head of commodities Alex Campbell and Brent Johnson of Santiago Capital. It was hosted by Tony Greer and Jared Dillian, who discussed the potential food crisis that appears to be festering.

pic.twitter.com/gHcRNn3pGh

— ZeroHedge Debates (@zerohedgeDebate) May 2, 2026

Watch here.

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/13/2026 - 11:15

IEA Revises 2026 Forecast: Global Oil Supply To Plunge Below Demand This Year

Global oil demand is set to exceed supply in the current year amid the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, reversing previous projections of a surplus, OilPrice reports citing the latest IEA data.

"With Hormuz tanker traffic still restricted, cumulative supply ​losses from Middle East Gulf producers already exceed 1 billion barrels with more than 14 million (barrels per ⁠day) of oil now shut in, an unprecedented supply shock," said the agency, which advises industrialized countries.

According to the May 2026 Oil Market Report by the International Energy Agency (IEA), global oil supply is projected to fall by 3.9 million bpd across 2026, with ~10.5 million bpd of Gulf oil production currently offline.

Global oil stocks are depleting at a record pace as supply losses from disruptions to flows via the Strait of Hormuz keep mounting

Producers & consumers are responding to the market signals, with Atlantic crude oil exports surging & refiners cutting runs: https://t.co/cOYraM4phx pic.twitter.com/QWJlPICebi

— International Energy Agency (@IEA) May 13, 2026

Consumption is also under pressure due to the war as ​price spikes lead ⁠to demand destruction and slower economic growth: Global demand is also forecast to contract by 420,000 bpd compared to a ​previous forecast of an 80,000 bpd drop due to surging prices, slow economic growth and widespread flight cancellations, with oil demand still set to outpace supply by 1.78 million bpd in the current year.

"Our latest supply and demand estimates imply that the market will remain severely undersupplied through the end of 3Q26, even assuming the conflict ends by early June," the Paris-based agency said, adding that the second-quarter deficit will be as stark as ​6 million bpd.

Global crude runs are expected to plunge by 1.6 million bpd to an average of 82.3 mb/d for the year as operators face infrastructure damage and severe feedstock shortages, with refinery throughput expected to fall by 4.5 million bpd in the second quarter alone.

Operators in the Middle East and Asia are battling significant damage to energy infrastructure and reduced availability of crude feedstocks, largely stemming from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The heaviest cuts have been in the Middle East and Asia-Pacific, heavily impacting naphtha, LPG and jet fuel production.

According to the IEA, global oil inventories are projected to fall by an average of 8.5 mb/d during the second quarter of 2026, with the drawdown largely due to a decline in crude output from countries including Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the UAE.

The steepest inventory draws are projected to occur in May and June, helping to keep Brent crude prices elevated at ~$106 per barrel.

Whereas the release of a total of 400 million barrels by 32 IEA members is expected to provide a temporary buffer, the market will still face a significant deficit that could keep prices high through the year.

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/13/2026 - 11:00

'Obvious Dangers': Gabbard Probing US Funding To International Biolabs

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times,

U.S. Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard and other intelligence officials are investigating U.S. funding to overseas laboratories handling biological research.

Initial searches of intelligence files showed that the U.S. government has provided money to more than 120 biolaboratories in more than 30 countries, a spokesperson for the Office of the Director of National Intelligence told The Epoch Times in an email on May 12.

That includes biolabs in Ukraine that “may be at risk of compromise due to the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war” and other laboratories that have researched highly contagious pathogens, potentially including research that enhanced the pathogens’ virulence or transmissibility, with little visibility or oversight, according to the office.

The Department of Defense in a 2022 document said the United States had invested approximately $200 million since 2005 to support work at 46 Ukrainian laboratories, health facilities, and diagnostic sites.

Gabbard issued new guidance to officials that directs them to step up the collection of information on laboratories and related facilities outside the United States, which is already yielding new details on clinical trials being performed at the facilities, officials said.

The information has raised ethical, financial, and security concerns, according to the Office of the Director of National Intelligence.

“The COVID-19 pandemic revealed the catastrophic global impact research on dangerous pathogens in biolabs can have,” Gabbard said in a statement.

“Yet despite these obvious dangers, politicians, so-called health professionals ... and entities within the Biden administration’s national security team lied to the American people about the existence of these U.S.-funded and supported biolabs and threatened those who attempted to expose the truth.”

She said that the Trump administration is “working closely with partners across the government to identify where these labs are, what pathogens they contain, and what ’research' is being conducted, to end dangerous Gain-of-Function research that threatens the health and wellbeing of the American people and the world.”

The first COVID-19 cases were detected in 2019 near a biolaboratory in Wuhan, China, that received funding from the United States.

Gabbard’s investigation was prompted by a May 5, 2025, executive order from President Donald Trump that forbade federal funding from supporting risky research, or experiments aimed at increasing functions of a virus, unless proper oversight is in place.

Trump said in the order that “dangerous gain-of-function research on biological agents and pathogens has the potential to significantly endanger the lives of American citizens” and that the government had previously approved funding for research “in China and other countries where there is limited United States oversight or reasonable expectation of biosafety enforcement.” COVID-19, he said, “revealed the risk of such practices.”

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/13/2026 - 10:45

WTI Holds Gains Despite Biggest SPR Drawdown In 45 Year History, Production Jumped

Oil prices are higher this morning (extending its 8%-plus surge of the last three days) as Middle East tensions simmer and global stockpiles shrink at a record pace.

WTI topped $103 and Brent crude traded near $108 a barrel, erasing its retreat earlier on Wednesday, after the IEA said global observed oil inventories declined at a rate of about 4 million barrels a day in March and April.

Saudi Arabia told OPEC that its output sank to the lowest level since 1990.

“With global oil inventories already drawing at a record clip, further price volatility appears likely ahead of the peak summer demand period,” the Paris-based IEA said in its Oil Market Report.

The market will remain “severely undersupplied” until October even if the conflict ends next month, the agency said.

For obvious reasons, this morning's official inventory and supply data (for the US) is now top of mind.

API

• Crude -2.2mm

• Cushing

• Gasoline +502k

• Distillates -319k

DOE

• Crude -4.3mm (-2.5mm exp)

• Cushing -1.7mm

• Gasoline -4.08mm - 13th weekly draw in a row

• Distillates +190k - first build in 7 weeks

Crude stocks saw a bigger than expected drawdown last week (the third week in a row) as Cushing inventories drop and while Distillates saw a small build, Gasoline stocks plunged... again...

Source: Bloomberg

The drawdowns from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve continue to accelerate. The 8.6mm barrel draw was the largest on record...

Source: Bloomberg

US crude production jumped last week...

Source: Bloomberg

Crude exports jumped back up to near the 6 million barrel a day mark, rising 742,000 barrels to around 5.5 million barrels a day. Anything above 4 million barrels a day is generally considered robust demand and in recent weeks the US sets its all-time record for crude exports as the Iran war disrupts flows globally. 

Imports of Venezuelan crude soared to 598,000 barrels a day, the highest since early 2019 when the US first imposed a de facto ban on oil imports from the country. 

Refinery runs bounced back in a big way and are now just shy of levels seen at the same time last year as maintenance season wraps up.

Valero Port Arthur was finally able to restart its largest crude unit, following a end-March fire, helping to bolster crude processing in the region. 

WTI extended gains, topping $103.50 this morning, as Martijn Rats, commodities strategist at Morgan Stanley, told clients in a Monday note: "That this is the largest oil supply disruption in the history of the oil market is neither an exaggeration nor controversial."

Morgan Stanley forecasts the market will lose another billion barrels over the course of 2026 due to the time required to restart oilfields, repair refineries and reposition the tanker fleet'

“We expect this destocking environment to continue over the next number of months and ultimately drive a restocking phenomenon longer-term,” Plains All American Pipeline LP Chief Executive Officer Willie Chiang said on an earnings call Friday. 

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/13/2026 - 10:37

Chinese Supertanker Sails Out Of Hormuz In Rare Exit

As president Trump was on his way to China, a Chinese tanker appears to have exited the Strait of Hormuz as it sails toward an area where the US has enforced a blockade, ahead of talks between US President Donald Trump and counterpart Xi Jinping, Bloomberg reported today, citing ship-tracking data showing the VLCC moving south along the eastern side of the chokepoint.

The supertanker which sailed past Iran’s Larak island, and into the Gulf of Oman, is Yuan Hua Hu, owned by Cosco, and would be only the third tanker carrying oil for China from the Persian Gulf that has traversed Hormuz since the start of the war. The vessel is broadcasting its Chinese origin and crew, Bloomberg said, as other vessels have done previously to secure safe passage.

Yuan Hua Hu’s draft indicates it’s fully loaded with oil, or close to the vessel’s 2 million barrel capacity. It was seen lifting from Iraq’s Basrah terminal in early March, according to ship-tracking data. The vessel was chartered by Unipec, the trading arm of Chinese state refining giant Sinopec, according to a fixture seen by Bloomberg.

In April, two very large Chinese crude carriers were allowed to pass the Strait of Hormuz under Iran’s toll system that demands payment of $2 million per supertanker to pass. One of those was the same Yuan Hua Hu that is currently moving along the strait.

China imports the bulk of its energy from the Middle East, and while it has amassed substantial crude oil stockpiles that are helping it weather the worst of the crisis - anecdotally over 1.4 billion barrels - restoring normal flows from the Persian Gulf is important for one of the world’s top energy importers.

Earlier in the war, reports emerged that Beijing had pressured Iranian officials to stop attacking vessels carrying crude oil and LNG via Hormuz. Judging from later events that involved Iranian strikes on vessels in the chokepoint, Tehran did not yield to the pressure.

The moment is delicate for relations between the United States, China, and Iran as President Trump heads to Beijing for talks with President Xi on topics that are bound to include traffic via the Strait of Hormuz. According to media reports, President Trump plans to have “a long talk” with President Xi about Iran, even as he told news agencies he did not need China’s help in resolving differences with Iran.

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/13/2026 - 10:10

Two Empty Qatari LNG Tankers Head Toward Gulf After Weekend Hormuz Transit Breakthrough

Bloomberg ship-tracking specialist Stephen Stapczynski has identified two empty Qatari LNG tankers, Al Gattara and Fraiha, transiting north toward the Gulf area after idling near Mauritius.

This movement comes just days after a Qatari LNG carrier successfully transited the Strait of Hormuz, suggesting that Doha may be engaged in backchannel discussions with Tehran about a gradual normalization of LNG flows through the maritime chokepoint.

Al Gattara and Fraiha could be returning to Qatar to load LNG cargoes. If confirmed, this would mark a notable development after a Qatari LNG tanker sailed through the Hormuz chokepoint over the weekend, the first seaborne LNG export from Qatar since the war began in late February. However, no empty Qatari LNG tankers had yet returned through the critical waterway for loading operations.

As of Wednesday, Hormuz tanker flows remain highly disrupted, as the U.S. and Iran have yet to agree on a deal. President Trump landed in China earlier today, and the Trump-Xi summit will focus on unfreezing the world's most critical waterway.

Polymarket:

//--> //--> Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Yes 8% · No 93%
View full market & trade on Polymarket

We have pointed out that a one-month countdown is underway. If Hormuz traffic does not resume, the real energy crisis will begin after June. 

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/13/2026 - 09:40

Trump Says 'Open Up China' Before Landing In Beijing For Pomp-Filled Red Carpet Airport Welcome

President Trump and his Air Force One entourage have arrived in Beijing on Wednesday, greeted by a lavish red carpet welcome. The American president was received by Chinese Vice President Han Zheng, China’s ambassador to Washington Xie Feng, Executive Vice Foreign Minister Ma Zhaoxuong, and US envoy to Beijing David Perdue.

Reports describe the extravagant welcoming ceremony as made up of a military honor guard and band, as well as about 300 Chinese youths waving alternating Chinese and American flags.

via Associated Press

"We’re the two superpowers," Trump had told reporters just before departing to China the day prior. "We're the strongest nation on Earth in terms of military. China’s considered second."

This is Trump's first visit there in nearly nine years, and an array of pressing issues will be discussed over the next two days of a packed-out schedule.

Official events with President Xi Jinping will kick off Thursday at 10am (local) with a formal welcoming ceremony at the Great Hall of the People, leading into the first meeting with Xi, after which the Chinese leader will host Trump for a state banquet at 6pm.

⚡️ Trump has arrived in China — the first visit by a U.S. president to Beijing since 2017

A day earlier, the U.S. president said Washington does not need China’s help on Iran.

According to Trump, the U.S. will “win one way or another — peacefully or otherwise.”

A meeting… pic.twitter.com/2QWYQZc5q8

— NEXTA (@nexta_tv) May 13, 2026

Also looming large over the historic visit is the ongoing Iran conflict. Just before departing Washington Trump while talking to reporters raised eyebrows in remarking that the financial situation for Americans was not a factor in his decision-making when it comes to Iran and dealing with the nuclear issue. 

"Not even a little bit," he said in the remarks at a moment Americans continue to face rising gas and food prices, connected to the war.

A day earlier, the U.S. president said Washington does not need China’s help on Iran. According to Trump, the U.S. will “win one way or another — peacefully or otherwise.”

Meanwhile, over in the Strait of Hormuz:

A Chinese supertanker carrying two million barrels of Iraqi crude has passed through the Strait of Hormuz, according to ship-tracking data.

The Yuan Hua Hu crude carrier is now anchored off the Gulf of Oman near where the US navy has set up a blockade of Iranian vessels. It marks the third known passage by a Chinese oil tanker through the waterway since the US-Israeli war on Iran began.

Trump has landed in Beijing. Motorcade en route to hotel. pic.twitter.com/PkN5XKz7QB

— Open Source Intel (@Osint613) May 13, 2026

While Iran and Taiwan remain pressing geopolitical challenges between the US and China, and for the whole globe really, Trump appears ready to focus on major business deals, per the Associated Press:

But Trump appeared firmly focused on business deals, with Nvidia chief Jensen Huang boarding the plane at the last minute in Alaska and Tesla’s Elon Musk also traveling on the presidential jet.

As the global AI race hots up, China is currently banned from purchasing the cutting-edge chips that Huang’s company produces under US export rules that Washington says are to protect national security.

Trump said in a social media post en route that he would be “be asking President Xi, a Leader of extraordinary distinction, to ‘open up’ China so that these brilliant people can work their magic.”

But this is how Beijing is going to read this....

Pretty hilarious of him to say that he's going to China with Jensen Huang to ask them to "open up," when the whole issue is that it's the U.S. that banned the sale of advanced Nvidia chips...

You can't ask China to reverse your own policies 🤷‍♂️ pic.twitter.com/B6jSLZxRik

— Arnaud Bertrand (@RnaudBertrand) May 13, 2026

Apparently very few of the CEOs were on Air Force One, with the rest flying presumably on private jets...

The US has banned an array of Chinese technology imports, citing national security, and so it's likely that China will only see this as having to go the other way - that it is the United States which must 'open up' to more Chinese business and tech.

The Chinese foreign ministry meanwhile stated Wednesday it "welcomes" Trump’s visit and that "China stands ready to work with the United States... to expand cooperation and manage differences."

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/13/2026 - 09:35

Trump Mulls 'Operation Sledgehammer' If Ceasefire Collapses, But Iran Has Re-Armed

The Pentagon is considering renaming the war with Iran from "Operation Epic Fury" to "Operation Sledgehammer" if President Trump orders a renewed full-scale bombing campaign against Iran, according to an NBC News report published Tuesday.

The report came on the eve of day 75 since the US and Israel launched the conflict. US sources touted to NBC that the United States now has greater military capabilities in the region than it did before the US and Israel launched the war on February 28. But US intelligence is now also suggesting Iran's missile capability is getting back up and running as well.

US Navy file image

After Iran had clearly withstood the shock and destruction of the opening days and couple weeks of major American and Israeli bombing raids over its cities and airbases, Trump belatedly ordered more warships, carriers, and troops into the region (Marine Expeditionary Force) - after which the blockade of Iranian ports was eventually put in place.

Now amid the heavier US naval and combined forces build-up in the CENTCOM area, "We are in a better spot now than on February 27," a US official said to NBC. "We have more firepower and capability."

The reported name change appears part of the Trump administration's effort to navigate around the War Powers Resolution, which is the 1973 law designed to limit executive war powers and reinforce Congress's constitutional authority to declare war.

According to NBC, the name change would be to underscore how seriously the administration is considering resuming the war, and could allow Trump to argue that it restarts the 60-day clock that requires congressional authorization for war, by way of the name change loophole.

While Republicans hold control of the Senate and have a slim majority in the House, there have lately been signs of bipartisan frustration at how the war is going, and the coming financial impact on the American public.

Also, even though the Pentagon has its assets in place if fighting were to resume, fresh reporting in NY Times and elsewhere indicates that Iran too has re-armed and regrouped.

"U.S. Intelligence Shows Iran Retains Substantial Missile Capabilities. Secret new assessments say Iran has operational access to 30 of its 33 missile sites along the Strait of Hormuz, suggesting that its military remains far stronger than President Trump has asserted," NY Times reports.

The report also indicates, "The Trump administration’s public portrayal of a shattered Iranian military is sharply at odds with what U.S. intelligence agencies are telling policymakers behind closed doors, according to classified assessments from early this month that show Iran has regained access to most of its missile sites, launchers and underground facilities."

This further opens up the possibility that US forces could sink into protracted quagmire should the White House choose to escalate the conflict through a renewed bombing campaign, or else launching some kind of ultra high-risk ground operation to recover Iran's nuclear material.

Interesting how U.S. intelligence reports are fluctuating, one moment Iran’s military is obliterated, another it’s retaining its capabilities. No leadership, then reports of serious cracks in the system, then a conclusion that Mujtaba is consolidating power. That’s completely… https://t.co/3iZAfMhZel

— Ali Hashem علي هاشم (@Alihashem) May 12, 2026

Trump is still insisting on taking Iran's "nuclear dust" out of the country, but how that precisely happens is anyone's guess - and would likely prove to be a long shot.

On Tuesday, speaker of Iran's parliament, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, said  his country's military stands ready to "teach a lesson" to any aggressor as Trump has said the ceasefire is hanging by a thread. "Our armed forces are ready to respond and to teach a lesson for any aggression," he said on social media. "A bad strategy and bad decisions always lead to bad results - the world already understands this."

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/13/2026 - 08:50

Yields Spike As Producer Prices Explode Higher In April

After yesterday's hotter than expected CPI (driven in large part by Energy, but seeing some contagion into Services costs), this morning's Producer Price print for April was expected to show a major surge in annual wholesale inflation.

With the eight straight monthly increase, PPI rose by a massive 1.4% MoM (vs +0.5% MoM exp) - the biggest MoM jump since March 2022, lifting PPI by a stunning 6.0% YoY (vs 4.8% YoY exp). That is the hottest PPI YoY since Dec 2022...

Source: Bloomberg

Services and Energy saw the biggest rise (while construction costs actually deflated very modestly)...

Core Producer Prices spiked 1.0% MoM (more than triple the +0.3% exp) smashing Core PPI YoY up 5.2% (also the hottest since Dec 2022)...

Source: Bloomberg

And finally, one could argue this is as bad as it gets for the energy component as oil prices have stabilized...

Source: Bloomberg

But of course, the pipeline of those energy costs is perhaps only just starting to trickle into the rest of the economy.

PPI triggered a spike in 2Y yields...

Now back above 4.00% at their highest since March with the market now pricing in a 50% chance of one rate-hike in 2026...

It appears any chance of Warsh cutting rates (as per Trump's expectations) are off the table... for now.

Finally, there is perhaps a silver lining from this ugly PPI report. Other than airfares (which rose 3%) the components that feed through into PCE inflation were pretty tame; portfolio management fees dropped 2.4% and the various medical-care components showed a maximum rise of 0.3%.

That may mitigate the impact of the report, but it’s still hard to totally ignore the risk that inflation becomes a more pressing concern moving forward. 

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/13/2026 - 08:40

UK Risk Spreads Oddly Calm As PM Starmer Faces Growing Threat Of Ouster

Wes Streeting is reportedly poised to resign as UK health secretary and launch a formal challenge to UK PM Keir Starmer in a Labour Party election.

Following a meeting with Starmer in Number 10 (which lasted just 16 minutes), an “ally” of the health secretary told The Times that Streeting was “going to go for it”.

Around 100 Labour MPs have publicly called for Starmer to resign although a similar number of lawmakers have urged challengers to hold back from launching a leadership bid.

Starmer’s leadership is hanging by a thread after Labour lost nearly 1,500 councillors across English councils and were defeated by nationalist parties in Wales and Scotland.

A slew of ministerial resignations have so far failed to force Starmer’s downfall this week.

As Bloomberg reports,s everal allies of Streeting have been among those to say he should go, leading lawmakers to conclude that he is attempting to build pressure against the premier ahead of announcing a challenge.

“I think it’s being a bit over dramatized,” Starmer loyalist Nick Thomas-Symonds said on BBC Radio 4 on Wednesday, ahead of Starmer’s meeting with Streeting.

“Anyone would think we were talking about the final scene at Casino Royale or something.”

Trade unions have joined the calls for change.

“It’s clear that the Prime Minister will not lead Labour into the next election, and at some stage a plan will have to be put in place for the election of a new leader,” unions affiliated with the party said in a statement published Wednesday morning.

In a statement alongside the King’s Speech this morning, Starmer said the country stood at a “pivotal moment”.

He said multiple crises had meant that the “status quo had repeatedly made working people pay the price”.

“This time must be different. And this King’s Speech shows it will be different with a plan to make this country stronger and fairer.”

Starmer’s move was seen as effectively daring his opponents to come out and publicly challenge him, a position that his deputy, David Lammy, put voice to in Downing Street on Tuesday evening.

“It’s been 24 hours now, and nobody has come forward to put themselves forward in the processes that exist in the party,” Lammy told reporters.

“No one seems to have the names to stand up against Keir Starmer, and for those who are suggesting that he should stand down, they should say which candidate would be better.”

Interestingly, the odds of a Starmer resignation in the short-term (by the end of May) have tumbled...

...while the odds of him leaving by year-end have soared...

And while the UK is in the midst of a political crisis that could see off its sixth Prime Minister in only a decade, Bloomberg's Simon White notes that risk spreads are remarkably contained.

A measure including UK asset swap spreads, gilt spreads, bank CDS, sterling, etc, is only modestly wider and is below where it was on the outbreak of the Iran war, Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ first budget, and the ill-fated, short-lived premiership of Liz Truss.

Gilt yields are indeed higher, and are so across the curve, which is suggestive of extra risk premium for holding UK debt.

“I am underweight gilts,” said Shinji Kunibe, a portfolio manager at Sumitomo Mitsui DS Asset Management Co. in Tokyo.

“Yields have already risen beyond Truss-era levels, so they’re attractive if we see any positive signals. But with so much uncertainty, I doubt anyone is willing to touch gilts right now.”

However, that has happened to other countries too - albeit to a lesser extent - due to the energy shock, muting the spread impact on the UK.

“I’d love to buy them because obviously long-end yields are so enticing on paper,” the chief multi-asset strategist at HSBC said in an interview on Bloomberg radio.

But with a potential challenge to Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s leadership keeping volatility high, “right now, gilts are a half-hour trade.”

There is also perhaps a hope that in the gilt market that the potential replacements for Keir Starmer are beginning to preach greater fiscal orthodoxy, if recent political commentary is to be believed.

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/13/2026 - 08:25