Zero Rss

Meta Developing Prediction Market App Called "Arena" To Compete With Polymarket, Kalshi

The company formerly known as Facebook which has yet to change its name from the terribly outdated Meta to something more AI-related, even if Meta has so far lost any hope of being a leading frontier model, is developing a new app called “Arena” that mirrors a prediction market platform to compete with the runaway success of Polymarket and Kalshi, according the New York Times.

The product - which would operate independently from Facebook and Instagram - would allow users to make forecasts about future events, ranging from politics and sports to entertainment and world affairs. However, unlike traditional prediction market platforms such as Polymarket or Kalshi, users would likely rely on a video game-like points system instead of cash, the report said, although the company has not ruled out the eventual use of real-money betting. In some ways, the product would be an extension of Meta's scuttled stablecoin project, Libra, when the company was hoping to enter the lucrative payments wallet market, however that venture proved unsuccessful and Zuckerberg pulled the plug in 2022.

The people described the product as both experimental and a top priority inside the company.

The effort comes as prediction markets have gained unprecedented popularity following Polymarket’s breakout success during the 2024 US presidential election, when traders came to the crypto-based platform to place bets on electoral outcomes, driving billions of dollars in trading volume and elevating prediction markets into the mainstream political conversation.

Meta previously launched a similar product called Forecast in 2020, which encouraged users to make predictions about current events and emerging trends during the early stages of the Covid-19 pandemic. But as with most other new ventures by the company, Meta ultimately shut down the product in 2022.

As CoinDesk notes, Meta’s renewed interest in the sector is hardly surprising given the broader industry trend in the same direction. Nearly every major trading platform has made some effort to offer prediction market-style products or event contracts. Crypto-native companies such as Coinbase and Kraken have explored opportunities in the space, while retail brokerage Robinhood has introduced event-based contracts tied to political and economic outcomes.

Yet the rapid growth of those markets has also attracted increasing legal and regulatory scrutiny. Critics argue that contracts tied to elections, geopolitics, or other sensitive events can blur the line between financial instruments and gambling. 

Regulators have also raised concerns about market manipulation, insider information, consumer protection, and the potential for participants to profit from events they may be able to influence. In the United States, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission has repeatedly grappled with whether certain event contracts serve a legitimate hedging purpose or constitute prohibited gaming activities.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/23/2026 - 15:25

Judge Blocks SNAP Restrictions On Sugary Drinks, Candy

Authored by Aldgra Fredly via The Epoch Times,

A federal judge on Monday blocked the USDA from restricting the use of the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance ​Program (SNAP) to buy sugary foods or drinks in five states.

Bags of candy on shelves at a Target store in Austin, Texas, on June 4, 2025. Brandon Bell/Getty Images

U.S. District Judge Amy Berman Jackson issued the ruling in response to a lawsuit by five SNAP recipients challenging the Agriculture Department's (USDA's) issuance of waivers for Colorado, Iowa, West Virginia, Tennessee, and Nebraska that allow them to restrict certain types of foods that can be purchased under the program.

According to the court documents, the states sought USDA approval between April and August 2025 to conduct pilot projects that would waive the federal definition of food and exclude soft drinks and sugary food from SNAP benefits.

The USDA approved the requests, but the plaintiffs argued the agency lacked authority to approve the food restriction waivers.

In her ruling, Jackson said the USDA lacked congressional approval to waive the federal definition of food under the program.

"Congress defined what 'food' is supposed to be, and it did not authorize the agency to amend or waive the definition it enacted. It did not authorize the agency to cut types of food out of SNAP entirely," the judge said.

"It set out clearly the type of experimental projects that could be tested to address the unquestionably serious health issues attributed to the rise of obesity in the population in general and particularly the low-income population. But it did not invite the Secretary to ignore its directives by trying to advance those ends under the banner of 'efficiency' or administrative improvements."

The judge also said that while the federal government and states may seek to encourage healthier choices for SNAP households, they must do so through lawful steps.

Following the ruling, the USDA ⁠defended the move and signaled that it would continue pursuing restrictions on the use of SNAP benefits for certain foods.

"The idea that taxpayer funds should not be used to purchase junk food should not be controversial," a USDA spokesperson said in a statement. "USDA will not be backing down from the fight to Make America Healthy Again, including for ​families and communities reliant on ​SNAP."

Katie Deabler, senior attorney at the National Center for Law and Economic Justice, which represents the plaintiffs, said the ruling marked "a major step" in restoring essential food aid to SNAP households.

"This decision makes clear that the USDA cannot bypass the legal guardrails that establish how SNAP must operate across the country. It affirms that families deserve a program that works without confusion," Deabler said in a statement.

The USDA has so far approved food restriction waivers ⁠in 23 states, allowing them to restrict SNAP participants from using their benefits to buy products such as ​soda and candy.

Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins and Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. have supported banning food items deemed unhealthy from SNAP as part of the Make America Healthy Again agenda.

In June 2025, Kennedy called on all state governors to exclude sugary drinks from the SNAP program.

"Taxpayer dollars should never bankroll products that fuel the chronic disease epidemic," he said at the time.

Naveen Athrappully and Reuters contributed to this report.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/23/2026 - 15:05

Ras Laffan Explosion Threatens To Slow Qatar LNG Ramp, Goldman Says

A powerful explosion tore through Qatar's key natural gas plant late Sunday, killing at least 13 people and injuring 66 others. While the incident does not appear to have directly impaired LNG export capacity, it has certaintly raised the risk that Qatar may slow the restart of operations as a precaution.

The timing could not be worse. The blast at Qatar's giant Ras Laffan energy complex comes just a week or so after the US-Iran interim peace deal was signed and days after the Strait of Hormuz was reopened.

Latest maritime ship tracking data shows a notable uptick in transits of tankers and cargo vessels on the critical waterway.

Goldman Sachs energy expert Samantha Dart penned a note on Monday detailing how the explosion at Qatar’s Barzan gas plant in Ras Laffan does not appear to have directly affected the country’s LNG export capacity, but it has raised questions over whether Qatar Energy may slow the restart of export trains as a precaution, potentially tightening Europe’s winter gas balance.

Dart said the blast likely adds a one-month delay in the full ramp-up of Qatari LNG exports, relative to a base case of exports reaching 83% of capacity by the end of July, would reduce northwest Europe’s end-October storage level by about 4 percentage points to 70%, compared with a 74% base case.

Dart's four takeaways:

1. While yesterday's accident at Barzan, a Qatari natural gas supply facility that services domestic gas users, does not appear to have directly impacted the country's LNG export capacity, it has raised questions as to whether the pace of restart at Qatari LNG export trains might slow as a precautionary measure.

2. We estimate that a one-month delay in the full ramp of Qatari LNG exports (to 83% of capacity, net of the 13 mtpa under long-term damage) relative to our end-Jul26 base case would lower the NW Europe end-Oct26 gas storage fill by 4pp to 70% full (vs our 74% base case).

3. We believe such a scenario would lend only very limited (if any) incremental support to European gas prices vs our 41 EUR/MW 2H2026 forecast. This is because our implied end-Mar27 storage estimate, which would move to 28% (vs our 32% base case) under an average winter, would still be high enough to withstand a 1-2 standard-deviation colder-than-average winter

4. A scenario of a two-month delay for the ramp in Qatari LNG exports, however, to end-Sep26, would be more worrisome for winter gas availability. In this scenario, we would expect end-Mar27 storage fill 8pp lower vs our 32% base case, suggesting a risk of stock-out under a two-standard deviation colder-than-average winter. This increased risk of a NW Europe gas inventory stock-out would, in turn, likely support 4Q26 TTF closer to 50 EUR/MWh than to our 40 EUR/MWh forecast to reflect a higher probability that the market might need to rally towards 65 EUR/MWh ($22/mmBtu) to disincentivize Asia LNG demand

Any delay in Qatar’s LNG ramp-up would complicate the early stages of Hormuz normalization after being shuttered for several months due to the US-Iran conflict and would impact global gas markets, particularly the hardest-hit in Europe, where storage remains very sensitive to the pace of Qatari export recovery.

Professional subscribers can read much more on energy and the Hormuz chokepoint at our Marketdesk.ai portal.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/23/2026 - 14:45

US Senate Passes Housing Bill With Four-Year Fed CBDC Ban

Authored by Micah Zimmerman via BitcoinMagazine.com,

The U.S. Senate passed a sweeping housing affordability bill Monday night — and tucked inside its pages is a provision that could permanently reshape America’s digital currency landscape: a formal ban on a Federal Reserve-issued central bank digital currency through the end of 2030.

The 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act cleared the Senate 85-5, with Republican leaders insisting the CBDC restriction ride along with one of the most bipartisan bills in years. The House was poised to fast-track a vote as early as Tuesday, putting the measure on a direct path to President Donald Trump’s desk for signature.

The bill’s language is sweeping: the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System or any Federal Reserve bank may not issue, create, or circulate a central bank digital currency — directly or through any intermediary — through December 31, 2030. 

It explicitly shields private stablecoins, carving out any “open, permissionless, and private” dollar-denominated asset.

Trump set the political foundation for the ban in January 2025, signing an executive order barring his administration from any CBDC activity, warning it would threaten “the stability of the financial system, individual privacy, and the sovereignty of the United States”.

New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, who replaced Jerome Powell, has called a U.S. CBDC a “bad policy choice” — making the Fed and the White House, for once, aligned.

The crypto market, meanwhile, isn’t celebrating. Bitcoin was trading near $62,000 Tuesday morning — down more than 3.7% on the day — as a Nasdaq tech selloff bled into digital assets. 

BTC has now lost roughly half its value since setting an all-time high above $125,000 in July 2025, and some analysts say the pain may not be over: at least one widely-followed technical indicator is pointing to a potential additional drop of 15% or more before a bottom forms.

Additional crypto Senate legislation in the works 

The CBDC ban is the latest piece in a three-part legislative puzzle the Trump-era Congress has been assembling.

In July 2025, Trump signed the GENIUS Act — the first federal stablecoin law in U.S. history — requiring issuers to hold one-to-one reserves, make monthly disclosures, and obtain federal licensing. The law essentially gave private digital dollars a legal green light at the same moment the government’s version was being blocked.

The third and most complex piece is still pending.

The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act — the industry’s long-sought framework for determining when a crypto token is a security versus a commodity — cleared the Senate Banking Committee 15-9 on May 14 and landed on the Senate Legislative Calendar on June 1. 

Galaxy Research has put the odds of passage this year as high as 60%, but the clock is running out.

The bill needs at least seven Democratic votes to clear the Senate floor, and senators must act before August — when the legislative calendar effectively shuts down ahead of midterm campaigning. 

Senator Bill Hagerty told Fox Business on June 18 that he hoped the Clarity Act could clear the floor in the weeks ahead. Without it, a key question — who actually regulates crypto, the SEC or the CFTC — remains unanswered heading into an election cycle.

If Trump signs the housing bill this week, it will mark the most concrete federal action against a government digital dollar yet.

The message from Washington is becoming harder to misread: private crypto has a seat at the table, and the Fed’s version of a digital dollar does not. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/23/2026 - 14:25

The Burden Of History: Justice Jackson's Curious Call To Overturn Critical 2nd Amendment Precedent

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

Since her confirmation in 2022, Justice Kentaji Brown Jackson has established a legacy that is fast becoming one of the most radical in the Court’s history. Her sole dissents have drawn sharp criticism from both her conservative and liberal colleagues. However, for critics of some of these decisions, Justice Jackson continues to publish opinions that are not just, as she describes it, cathartic but chilling. Worse yet, the latest judicial jump scare was shared by her colleague, Justice Sonya Sotomayor, in her concurring opinion in United States v. Hemani..

At issue in the case was an effort to prosecute Ali Hemani for recreational use of marijuana, a prosecution that threatened up to 15 years and to strip him of his gun rights under  18 U.S.C. § 922(g)(3)

Writing for the majority, Justice Neil Gorsuch ruled that the provision was not "consistent with the Second Amendment." Gorsuch noted that Hemani was not alleged to be a drug addict or to have used his guns in a menacing manner.

Gorsuch wrote that the "historical laws on which it relies targeted different kinds of people, did so for different reasons, and operated in different ways."

However, Jackson used the concurrence to argue for overturning NYSRPA v. Bruen, a case critical to laying the foundation for interpreting the Second Amendment based on historical precedent. Jackson lashed out at the"'history and tradition' metric" and called for the Court to "revisit" the case.

Declaring Bruen "unworkable," Jackson called for the restoration of the "means-end scrutiny - the approach courts applied before we adopted Bruen's 'history and tradition' metric - offers a more rational way of assessing the constitutionality of firearm regulations."

The reason for undoing Bruen? According to Jackson, "it imposes on judges the unfamiliar and difficult tasks of sifting through centuries-old evidence in order to answer 'contested historical questions,' and 'applying those answers to resolve contemporary problems.'"

Justice Jackson added that "Given those challenges, it is unsurprising that Bruen's test is vulnerable to inconsistent and arbitrary application, as judges draw different conclusions from the same historical evidence and reach divergent assessments of the same laws."

The burden of actually seeking to understand the intended meaning of a constitutional provision is certainly greater than the more free-style approach of Jackson who focused on how to "resolve contemporary problems" under a living Constitution. However, to suggest that her outcome-determinative approach is less inconsistent and arbitrary is only true when you control the Court with justices who have like-minded "solutions" for contemporary problems.

That is precisely what many Democrats have in mind as they openly pledge to pack the Court with an insistent liberal majority if they can retake power. Moreover, Jackson is often cited as the model of the left, a justice who is unburdened by the language and history of constitutional provisions.

Just last week, liberal Wisconsin State Supreme Court justices heralded Jackson’s approach in arguing for the restoration of race-based gerrymandering. The state jurists lamented not being able to interpret the Constitution to address the “harms this country has caused to those who are marginalized, disempowered, or disenfranchised,” including the “preference for White Americans and to burden Black Americans and those of other disadvantaged races or backgrounds.”

These federal and state Supreme Court opinions are a glimpse into what awaits the country if Democratic leaders carry out their threat to take over the Supreme Court by adding four liberal justices in the image of Justice Jackson.

It is not simply the desire to immediately overturn prior cases but to establish a largely untethered jurisprudence driven by judicial fiat and impulse. It is certainly an easier way to write opinions and would clear the way for a stated agenda on the left to maintain power indefinitely.

Before voters "unburden" these jurists, they need to seriously consider the costs of eviscerating an institution that has been vital in maintaining this Republic for the last 250 years.

Here is the opinion: United States v. Hemani

onathan Turley is a law professor and the New York Times best-selling author of “Rage and the Republic: The Unfinished Story of the American Revolution.”

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/23/2026 - 13:45

Trump Privately Told Zelensky To Act 'More Boldly' Toward Russia: Ukrainian Media

While the globe's attention has been fixated on efforts to finally achieve US-Iran peace, based on negotiations in Switzerland, the Russia-Ukraine war has been quietly (or not so quietly) heating up, as evidenced in the increasingly brazen Ukrainian drone attacks on Moscow and Crimea.

A slew of Ukrainian publications on Tuesday are reporting that this is in large part due to a White House greenlight to bring the war to Russian territory, in order to finally get significant concessions from Moscow, after over four years of grinding and a largely stalemated conflict.

"Ukraine now believes it has secured White House backing for a campaign aimed at forcing Russia into meaningful negotiations, the Kyiv Independent has learned," one such prominent English-language publication says.

The key claim is that President Trump privately told President Volodymyr Zelensky to act "more boldly," a senior Ukrainian official has claimed to several outlets.

"Trump says he doesn't really believe (Vladimir) Putin will do anything without pressure," the official, said to have been briefed on a recent Trump-Zelensky meeting, added.

"President (Trump) believes in peace through strength," one US official separately added.

According to Trump, who was recently asked about lukewarm efforts to get the warring sides back to the negotiating table...

"I don't mind," the American President said. "I mean, let them deal."

Ukraine's Zelensky had just days ago proclaimed: "I will not travel to Moscow to meet with Putin. We can meet in Turkey, Switzerland, or the Middle East."

Washington has clearly taken a step back after the prior big Putin-Trump summit in Alaska failed to produce any significant or lasting results in Ukraine, other than perhaps improving Moscow-Washington relations.

If it's true that Trump did indeed tell Zelensky to act 'more boldly' - this will music to the UK, France, Germany, and Baltic states' ears... they have wanted a clearer US greenlight to impose heavy costs on Russia.

But obviously the situation remains highly dangerous, given if they poke the nuclear-armed Russian bear too much, the war could finally escalate beyond just Ukraine and Russia's borders.

The problem is that this has all been tried before, and Russia only escalates in turn, seeking to clarify its red lines to the West. It's long been a proxy war, but things can always slide into dangerous open confrontation and conflict with NATO.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/23/2026 - 13:25

Average 2Y Auction Stops Through, Has Highest Yield Since Jan 2025

In the week's first coupon auction, moments ago the Treasury sold $69BN in 2Y notes at a high yield of 4.189%, up from 4.071% and the highest yield since January 2025; the auction also stopped through the When Issued 4.192% by 0.3bps, the biggest through since January.

The bid to cover was perfectly average at 2.643, unchanged from last month's 2.640 and right on top of the recent average of 2.61.

Internals were a bit on the weak side, with Indirects awarded 55.45%, down from 57.60% and the lowest since Dec 25. And with Directs awarded 34.3%or the highest since Oct '25, Dealers were left with 10.24%, down from 12.3% and the lowest since Feb.

Overall, this was a medicore auction which priced on the strong side but whose internals offset that strength, printing a bit weak. Not like any of that mattered for the bond market, however, with yields trading near session lows across the curve.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/23/2026 - 13:13

Kuwait Offers Gulf Oil Loadings In Ports Deep In Persian Gulf As Producers Seek Hormuz Outlet

Submitted by Tsvetana Paraskova of OilPrice.com

Kuwait is offering naphtha for loading at its ports deep into the Persian Gulf in the first such tender in months, as Middle Eastern oil producers seek to raise shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.

State-held Kuwait Petroleum Corporation (KPC) has issued a tender to sell naphtha cargoes to be picked up at Kuwaiti ports by buyers, Bloomberg reported on Monday, quoting a tender document it had seen.

The Kuwaiti tender is a sign that the Gulf producers are hopeful that the Strait of Hormuz reopening would allow them to boost production and crude and product shipments.

In previous sales during the Hormuz crisis, Kuwait has asked potential buyers to charter their own tankers to pick up petroleum from the country’s ports, traders told Bloomberg.

But tanker traffic at the Strait of Hormuz has seen hiccups hours after the U.S. and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding to reopen the critical oil and LNG chokepoint. Iran claimed on Saturday it closed the Strait again, due to the Israeli strikes in Lebanon, while the United States insists the waterway is open and millions of barrels of oil are flowing out of the Gulf.

Strait of Hormuz traffic through ~noon (UTC), today.
Vessels > 10,000 dwt.

Traceable traffic mostly through the Iranian lanes.
Outbound traffic includes three laden, sanctioned VLCCs.@LloydsList pic.twitter.com/wR45UVGgDr

— Tomer Raanan (@tldraanan) June 22, 2026

The situation remains volatile, but the Middle East Gulf producers, especially those relying solely on Hormuz such as Kuwait, appear to be preparing to increase output they had shut in in the early days of the war.

Last week, KPC’s deputy chairman and CEO Sheikh Nawaf Saud Al-Sabah said that Kuwait expects to raise its oil production to 2 million barrels per day (bpd) within a week, up from an average of 573,000 bpd in May, amid the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

“Prewar production levels could be restored within weeks once regular international commercial shipping to Kuwait ports has resumed,” Al-Sabah was quoted as saying by Kuwait News Agency.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/23/2026 - 13:05

MP Materials' Lawsuit Against USA Rare Earth Highlights Battle For America's Future In Minerals

USA Rare Earth has dismissed a lawsuit filed by MP Materials, calling the claims "completely without merit" and arguing the case is an attempt to slow its growth. The company said it will deny all allegations that it improperly obtained confidential information from a former MP employee, according to Bloomberg.

The dispute underscores intensifying competition in the U.S. rare-earth sector, where both companies are racing to build domestic mining, processing, and magnet-production capabilities. USA Rare Earth said MP is trying to impede its progress as it develops the Round Top deposit in Texas and a magnet facility in Oklahoma.

Bloomberg writes that MP sued last month, alleging a coordinated effort by USA Rare Earth to recruit MP employees and misuse proprietary information. The lawsuit also questioned the viability of USA Rare Earth’s projects. MP declined to comment on the latest filing.

The clash comes as billions of dollars flow into the U.S. rare-earth industry amid efforts to reduce reliance on China, which continues to dominate global supply chains for the critical minerals.

Rare earth minerals have become increasingly important to the United States because they are essential components in advanced technologies, including electric vehicles, semiconductors, robotics, aerospace systems, and military equipment. Materials such as neodymium, praseodymium, dysprosium, and terbium are critical for manufacturing high-performance magnets used in everything from fighter jets and missile guidance systems to wind turbines and data centers.

The strategic importance of rare earths has grown as the U.S. seeks to reduce its dependence on China, which currently dominates global rare earth mining, processing, and magnet production. Supply chain disruptions and export restrictions have heightened concerns among policymakers and industry leaders, prompting significant investments in domestic mining, processing, and manufacturing capabilities. Companies such as MP Materials and USA Rare Earth are at the forefront of efforts to establish a secure and resilient American rare earth supply chain.

Under the Trump administration, rare earth minerals have become a central component of broader efforts to strengthen U.S. energy security, industrial competitiveness, and national defense. Recent policy initiatives and government support have accelerated domestic rare earth development, reflecting a growing consensus that securing access to these critical minerals is essential for maintaining America's technological leadership and reducing strategic vulnerabilities.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/23/2026 - 12:30

This Is Only Fifth Time QQQs Gapped Down When Within 2% Of An All Time High

In a day of sharp, downward pointing market moves and superlatives, we can add another: according to calculations from BTIG's Jonathan Krinsky, today's 2% gap down in the QQQs is a historic event. "Since QQQ's inception ('99), this is just the 5th time that's happened when the day prior was within 2% of a 52wk high and the VIX was below 20."

What happens next? While near-term returns are split, all four of the signals saw QQQ meaningfully lower over the next month. Hardly a shock judging by how extreme the upside moves in semis/AI have been.

Meanwhile, Krinsky continues to highlight the "screaming" divergences within the market, as the hyperscalers continue to trade poorly, and in S. Korea you had the KOSPI rally over 4% the last four days when each day had extremely negative breadth.

Whether or not we rally in the short-term, the BTIG strategist continues to see medium-term downside risk for the tech/AI trade with ~5% further to go for QQQ and 10-15% more for areas like SOXX.

The good news is so far correlations remain low and this appears to be rotational in nature, with areas like financials and biotech still looking good.

The Focus observations: 

• QQQ Study. QQQ gapped down over 2% this morning. Since QQQ's inception ('99), this is just the 5th time that's happened when the day prior was within 2% of a 52wk high and the VIX was below 20. The four priors were: 5/16/19, 1/27/20, 2/24/20 and 1/27/25. While near-term returns were split,all four of the signals saw QQQ meaningfully lower over the next month.

• How Much Downside? From current levels, BTIG sees ~5% more downside for QQQ and 10-15% for SOXX.
• What if We Rally? Given the 'buy the dip' mentality, a further rally from today's lows would not be surprising. QQQ already up more than 1% off session lows as of 10:30et. While BTIG doesn't foresee recent highs being exceeded in the near-term, both 2020 and 2025 did see new highs before ultimately rolling over (note that those highs also were aided by COVID-19 and the 'tariff tantrum').

• The Good News. As of 11:30et, S&P breadth was +84 with five sectors green. REITs, banks, and insurers continue look good, as does Biotech, although XBI is a bit extended very short-term. For now, it still appears to be a positioning unwind rather than the start of a high-correlation selloff, and that allows other areas to work while the tech/AI trade takes a much-needed breather.

• Dollar Up, Gold Down. With the DXY breaking out through 100, a move towards 104 looks likely which should pressure gold down below 4k.

More in the full BTIG report available here.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/23/2026 - 12:10

There’s A Shakespearean Tone To Current Developments

By Michael Every of Rabobank

Burnham would come to high Done-inane

There’s a Shakespearean tone to current developments: tragically, not one of his comedies.

The US has introduced a temporary waiver (until August 21) for Iranian oil sales that undoes 40 years of sanctions. Iran can sell what it likes to who it likes, including the US, and receive US dollars. Two months isn’t enough time to sell much, but if the White House wants to show Iran it’s serious about offering new opportunities that’s been achieved. Equally, Iran says an agreement has been reached to release $12bn in frozen funds, but disputes Trump's claim it will buy food exclusively from the US with it.

More importantly, VP Vance said Iran has agreed to nuclear inspections from the IAEA, a huge concession. However, Iran responded that’s not the case and it didn’t negotiate nuclear matters so far in Switzerland.

On Hormuz, the Iranian view remains it will manage the strait and charge for passage within months: Trump’s is the polar opposite. That’s as transits seem to be running at around a quarter to a third of normal levels, at best. Indeed, the squeeze in bunker fuel is still evident in rising ocean carrier freight rates.

On Lebanon, a new deconfliction mechanism is floated that excludes Israel, as PM Netanyahu, Defence Minister Katz, and IDF head Zamir reiterated a pledge to “continue to act decisively” and hold their security zone there, including the 1km-long, 25-metre deep underground Hezbollah missile and drone base in Ali Taher ridge, evidence of how much Iran has ploughed into its proxy. Separately, the Israeli and Lebanese governments will meet in Washington to discuss normalization and elusive Hezbollah disarmament; and in the background, Syria has signaled that, after Trump's suggestion, it will only engage Hezbollah if Lebanon requests it.

The Saudi paper Asharq Al-Awsat reports Hamas held a top-secret meeting with French officials to discuss a possible return to '1967 borders', which they’ve floated before as a temporary truce, that could unlock Trump’s Board of Peace and ‘Gaza-Lago’ redevelopment plans.

Yet the Jerusalem Post reports new Mossad boss Gofman is taking the agency “by storm” and is ramping up plans to topple the Islamic regime. So, what’s it to be in the Middle East, beyond the current calm?

"Something wicked this way comes"

UK PM Starmer resigned, as former Mayor of Manchester Andy Burnham sealed his doom by coming to high Done-inane, swearing in as an MP in Westminster after not being one a week ago. The UK press is abuzz with discussions of who will be in his cabinet, like what’s-his-face and that-one-from-a-few-years-ago. There’s a natural market focus on who’ll be the Thane of Cawdor Chancellor: Burnham needs to reassure Gilts that fiscal rules will be adhered to and his leftwing backbenchers that he’s offering something new enough that his popularity won’t follow the same rapid downwards trajectory as that of Starmer, Sunak, Truss, Johnson, and May.

One immediate impact is that the July EU-UK summit has been postponed: nobody knows what Burnham’s view re: the EU will be, but he has previously backed rejoining.

“If you can look into the seeds of time; And say which grain will grow and which will not.”

In Asia, India launched three warships as a show of force to China in the Indian Ocean, as the US Department of War renamed its Indo-Pacific Command back to the Pacific Command, signalling a de-prioritisation of the area matching Europe re: NATO and the Middle East re: Iran and Israel. In East Asia, where the US is outsourcing its Taiwan-focused efforts to Japan and the Philippines, China says it warned off multiple Japanese ‘provocations’ during its recent aircraft carrier drills.

"Is this a dagger which I see before me?"

In related geoeconomics, China announced it’s targeting US rare earths firms in response to a Pentagon list of Chinese firms: this is largely a symbolic move, but it still underlines the tensions in this area. So does the Nikkei reporting that ‘China minerals control threatens EU rearmament, as bloc seeks new sources’: as we have long warned, even if you can afford a dagger, you can’t make it without rare earths, and Europe still hasn’t secured enough supply. More positively, the aluminium squeeze caused by the closure of Hormuz is being ameliorated by Chinese supply and dark transits from the Middle East.

“If it were done when ’tis done, then ’twere well; It were done quickly.”

In politics, besides Starmerama, another political scandal in Spain, and gridlock in choosing a new PM in Romania, the US Supreme Court looks set for three key rulings ahead:  

Trump v. Slaughter reviews the long-standing precedent that restricts a president from firing heads of independent federal agencies (like the FTC) without "good cause". A ruling for Trump could alter the structure of the US government, allowing presidents to dismiss leaders of independent regulatory and financial institutions at will – including members of the Fed.

Trump vs. Barbara addresses the constitutionality of an executive order restricting birthright citizenship, denying automatic citizenship to children born on US soil if their parents are not US citizens or lawful permanent residents.

Watson v. Republican National Committee revolves around the constitutionality of state laws that allow mail-in ballots to be received and counted after Election Day, as long as they were officially cast or postmarked by that day. Naturally, this would shake up the mid-term, and all subsequent, US elections.

“Two truths are told; As happy prologues to the swelling act; Of th’imperial theme”

Meanwhile in markets, China introduced technical changes to bridge the gap between onshore CNY and offshore CNH in authorising six state-owned banks to conduct CNH transactions in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone as a ‘sand box’ as the PBoC expanded cross-border e-CNY agreements with 26 financial institutions. This isn’t China floating its currency; neither does this work around China’s ever-larger net trade surpluses, where earning CNH is very hard for most counterparties, limits the ability to internationalise CNH via the ‘USD’ method. Yet it speaks to a potential parallel CNH internationalisation where domestic liquidity backs that required offshore while retaining capital controls. With the US is moving ahead with plans for US dollar stablecoins, which have some similar aims, international payment systems, commodity supply chains, defence tech, and AI are going to become a stacked, contested space. Watch it; and what happens in the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. Over time, the FX market will grasp what it means.

“Out, damned spot! Out, I say!”

Markets are going for the easy option on all of the above news for now: Brent oil was at $78 at time of writing; bond yields were lower; and SpaceX looked like it was testing re-entry, having fallen around $600bn from its recent post-IPO peak.

"Methought I heard a voice cry, ‘Sleep no more! Macbeth does murder sleep’." That’s how I feel.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/23/2026 - 11:55

Meta Widens Smart-Glasses Lead With $299 Models, Leaving Apple And Snapchat Chasing AI Wearable Race

Meta Platforms continues to gain momentum in the smart-glasses race with an extended push into affordable eyewear priced at $299, below its current Ray-Ban Meta Wayfarer model, Snapchat's $2,200 glasses, and Apple's $3,000-plus Vision Pro headset.

Bloomberg reports that Meta unveiled the Adventurer and Fury glasses, each priced at $299 - or about $80 below its Ray-Ban Meta Wayfarer smart glasses model. Meta also introduced a $399 Starfire model in collaboration with Kylie Jenner, targeting cash-strapped Gen Z and millennial consumers.

EssilorLuxottica, Meta's smart-glasses partner and the parent of Ray-Ban and Oakley, will manufacture the new models.

Meta's new Adventurer smart glases.Photographer: Mark Gurman/Bloomberg

We have detailed Meta's smart-glasses supply chain at length, and Goldman analyst Jerry Shen recently published a deep dive mapping the key suppliers powering the emerging AI and AR eyewear markets.

EssilorLuxottica's CEO said the cheaper Meta smart glasses are designed to "drive access to broader audiences," adding that "more price-sensitive consumers will have an opportunity to experience the power that wearables bring into their everyday lives."

Last week, Snapchat CEO Evan Spiegel debuted goofy $2,220 smart glasses...

Evan Spiegel showing off the new Specs AR glasses to the public for the first time. pic.twitter.com/pCYBLU9xxH

— Nathie (@NathieVR) June 16, 2026

...which Wall Street analysts viewed less as a mass-market consumer glasses and more as a developer kit, given the steep price point.

Clearly, Spiegel learned little from Apple's Vision Pro debut a few years ago, which failed to attract mainstream consumers because of its $3,000-plus price point.

Apple has certainly taken note of Meta's successful push into smart glasses and is expected to launch more affordable glasses in late 2027.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/23/2026 - 11:05

Trump Signs Orders For Quantum Computer, Cryptography Upgrades

Authored by Martin Young via CoinTelegraph.com,

US President Donald Trump signed two executive orders on Monday to push to build a quantum computer and to focus on creating cryptography that can resist quantum attacks.

The orders aim to take a “cohesive, whole-of-government approach” to accelerate the deployment and commercialization of quantum computing and “protect sensitive technologies and work with allies to ensure adversaries cannot use QIST [Quantum Information Science and Technology] to undermine national security.”

The orders come as China ramps up its quantum computing ambitions following the announcement of its “Five-Year Plan” in March, which aims to expand investment in scalable quantum computers and the development of an integrated space-earth quantum communication network. 

Investing in American quantum leadership like never before.

President Trump signs executive orders on quantum, supercharging a national effort in innovation in quantum technologies, ensuring national security and continuing American growth in a critical industry. 💻🇺🇸 pic.twitter.com/cQmdCs0s4N

— The White House (@WhiteHouse) June 22, 2026

Trump’s orders state that within 180 days, relevant agencies must update the National Quantum Strategy to support commercialization and industry partnerships. 

Various agencies are also tasked with identifying implications of increasing scale and performance of commercial quantum computers, “such as the implications for the migration to post-quantum cryptography.”

The order also establishes Quantum Computer for Application Development and Discovery Science (QC-ADDS), a national effort to pursue the development of a quantum computer at a scale intended to “initiate the era of quantum-enabled scientific discovery.”

Focus on post-quantum cryptography

The other executive order aims to secure the US against quantum-assisted cryptographic attacks and is more focused on upgrading to post-quantum cryptography.

“We’re going to be investing in American quantum leadership like never before to stay ahead of the pack,” Trump said.

The order directs the Office of Management and Budget and the National Cyber Director to lead an accelerated, nationwide migration to post-quantum cryptography, ensuring the nation’s data stays secure as quantum technology evolves. 

“The advent of large-scale quantum computers, particularly in the hands of adversaries, will pose a significant threat to widely used cryptographic security systems,” the order said. 

Major crypto blockchains such as Ethereum and Solana have already started working on post-quantum roadmaps, while the Bitcoin community is still divided on how to approach securing old coins against the quantum threat.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/23/2026 - 10:45

"This May Be Iran's First Misstep - And Proof Leverage Isn't Total"

Brent and WTI futures extended declines on Tuesday morning as momentum continued toward an end to the US-Iran conflict. The latest signs of de-escalation include a U.S. waiver allowing some crude and fuel sales from Iran, while Tehran said $12 billion in frozen funds had been released as part of ongoing talks with U.S. negotiators.

Both sides have signaled progress so far this week, further eroding the war premium in crude markets as traders begin to price in the flood of Iranian barrels hitting global markets, normalization of the Hormuz chokepoint, and a broader easing of geopolitical risk across the Persian Gulf.

Strait of Hormuz, this morning.

• 04:03 UTC: a cluster of commercial vessels holding convoy formation ahead of transit.
• 06:45 UTC: the same vessels underway and crossing south of Larak. pic.twitter.com/F1Yj9e0l7Q

— Windward (@WindwardAI) June 23, 2026

Brent fell to $77 a barrel after sliding 3.3% on Monday, while WTI traded around $73 a barrel.

On the Hormuz front, ship traffic continued to normalize as an increasing number of tankers and cargo ships broadcast their transponders on the critical waterway, signaling growing confidence among owners, traders, and insurers after last week's U.S.-Iran interim deal.

Maritime intelligence firm Windward posted part of a briefing on X early Tuesday, stating: "25 transits on June 22, including French- and Qatari-linked LNG carriers moving openly with AIS active. Iranian exports hit a two-month high of 6.79M barrels."

Continued:

• Iran reinstated PGSA toll and clearance requirements on June 21, attempting to re-close the Strait of Hormuz.
• Despite the announcement, 25 AIS-visible transits were recorded on June 22, including French- and Qatari-linked LNG carriers.
• Kharg Island resumed multi-berth crude loading, with Iranian exports reaching 6.79 million barrels during the week ending June 21, the highest level in nearly two months.
• A cluster of 17 tankers, including 10 OFAC-sanctioned vessels, was observed operating in the southeastern Hormuz corridor.
• Fujairah and Khor Fakkan remained heavily congested as operators continued waiting for clarity on transit conditions.
• Windward identified an extensive sanctions-evasion network linked to 38 vessels expelled from the Cameroon registry.

Iran moved to re-close Hormuz on June 21. The market answered.

Windward Maritime AI™ recorded 25 transits on June 22, including French- and Qatari-linked LNG carriers moving openly with AIS active. Iranian exports hit a two-month high of 6.79M barrels.

Operators are testing… pic.twitter.com/ruFW3HpTxB

— Windward (@WindwardAI) June 23, 2026

Eurasia Group senior analyst Gregory Brew commented on Windward's report, indicating, "This may be Iran's first misstep—and proof that its leverage isn't total. Iran announced the strait was closed, but it didn't *close* the strait. Without the credible threat of force, Iran's sway over the waterway has limits."

This may be Iran's first misstep--and proof that its leverage isn't total.

Iran announced the strait was closed, but it didn't *close* the strait.

Without the credible threat of force, Iran's sway over the waterway has limits. https://t.co/ox3aiiMWoL

— Gregory Brew (@gbrew24) June 23, 2026

To note, Brew is Eurasia Group's Iran and energy analyst, and if his assumption is correct, Tehran's massive leverage tool over global energy markets by closing Hormuz may be eroding.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/23/2026 - 10:25

US Manufacturing Hits 49-Month High As 'Input Costs Show Signs Of Cooling'

This morning we found out that Euro-area business activity shrank less than anticipated in June (Services up/beat, Manufacturing down/miss).

S&P Global’s Composite PMI rose to 49.5 from 48.5, topping estimates but remaining below the 50 mark that indicates growth.

"The eurozone economy is showing enough resilience to just about stay out of recession. "

However, the UK’s economy contracted for a second consecutive month (both Services and Manufacturing lower), with its PMI slipping to a 14-month low.

"A disappointing June ‘flash’ PMI indicates that the economy contracted for a second successive month, albeit at only a 0.1% rate and merely flat-lining over the second quarter as a whole."

And despite the recent weakness in 'hard' data, expectations were for an incrementally positive rise in the US Composite PMI in preliminary June data (with Services up and Manufacturing down).

Forecasters under-estimated the US economic resilience with both Manufacturing (55.7 vs 54.6 exp vs 55.1 prior) and Services (51.3 vs 51.1 exp vs 50.3 prior) both rising and beating expectations.

Manufacturing is at a 49-month high and Services at a 4-month high with a positive trend over the past 3 months...

Source: Bloomberg

“Brighter news out of the Middle East has helped restore some confidence among US businesses in June", said Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, "though the overall rate of economic growth signalled by the flash PMI survey remains relatively sluggish compared to that seen earlier in the year in the lead up to the conflict."

The survey signals that current output levels are consistent with the economy struggling to grow much faster than a 1% annualized rate in the second quarter.

The service sector continues to grow at an especially subdued pace, reflecting push-back from customers over high prices amid low levels of consumer confidence in particular.

While there is better news from the manufacturing sector, Williamson remains concerned that factory growth continues to be temporarily buoyed by inventory building amid supply fears.

Supply delays grew more widespread in June.

Williamson says that “most worrying was the further fall in employment, notably in the manufacturing sector."

Factory job cuts are running at the highest since 2009 if the pandemic is excluded, reflecting concerns over the sustainability of the recent upturn in demand alongside worries over the escalating cost of raw materials.

However, while still running at one of the highest rates seen over the past four years, input cost inflation has shown sign of cooling in June thanks in part to the lower energy prices seen at the tail end of the survey data collection period.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/23/2026 - 09:56

Here Is The Korean Article That Sent Memory Stocks Tumbling And Sparked A Global Selloff

Early last night, just around the time Korean stocks opened at a new all time high, we highlighted an article in Korea's Chosun Biz, which eventually became the catalyst for the sharp repricing lower of memory stocks - and since memory stocks account for about 60% of the Kospi, sparked the 10% crash in the South Korean market which culminated with a mandatory halt of trading - and sparked a risk off wave around the globe. 

"Since production forecasts for NVIDIA's next-generation chip 'Rubin,' which will be equipped with HBM4, are trending downwards, there is no reason to accelerate the transition to HBM." - Chosunhttps://t.co/tOYfVXObQw

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) June 23, 2026

As both CNBC and Bloomberg write this morning, "traders are pointing to a South Korean media report saying SK Hynix is slowing expansion of AI memory chip production and shifting emphasis to commodity DRAM."

What exactly is the article saying? The punchline was the following:

"An official familiar with SK Hynix stated, 'SK Hynix management cannot help but be mindful that their competitor (Samsung Electronics) is already generating massive profits from general-purpose DRAM rather than HBM.'" The official explained, "Since production forecasts for Nvidia's next-generation chip 'Rubin,' which will be equipped with HBM4, are also trending downward, there is no reason to accelerate the transition to HBM."

The slowdown in HBM4 (or high bandwidth memory) rollout which is critical for high end AI racks, was - naturally - spun as a positive event and was justified as SK Hynix moving back to DDR memory production, which somehow is now higher margin, but the bottom line is simple: supply for high end HBM is slowing which in turn has prompted questions whether this is due to a cartel-like attempt to control pricing (probably not very smart to admit this), or more likely, in response to problems with the rollout of high end Nvidia systems, and especially the Vera Rubin racks which as we reported a month ago are emerging as extremely expensive, primarily because of the surge in memory prices which are crushing hyperscaler margins.

Here is the full Chosun article:

SK Hynix Adjusts HBM4 Production Speed… Seeking Additional Revenue by Increasing General-Purpose DRAM Amid Supply Shortages

• General Purpose DRAM Surpasses HBM in Operating Profit Margin… "90% Possible" 
• "SK Hynix Needs Only to Defend HBM Market Share"
• Opportunity for Samsung Electronics to Increase HBM Market Share

SK Hynix is ​​shifting its focus to the general-purpose DRAM market while adjusting the pace of mass production expansion for 6th generation High Bandwidth Memory (HBM4). The explanation is that, having already solidified an overwhelming advantage with HBM sales accounting for over 40% of total revenue, the company is adjusting its resource allocation to secure additional profits in the general-purpose DRAM market, where supply shortages are severe, rather than engaging in excessive competition for capacity expansion.

According to industry sources on the 23rd, SK Hynix is ​​reportedly delaying the conversion of some 5th-generation HBM (HBM3E) production lines, which were originally scheduled to transition to HBM4. The company plans to secure additional profits by increasing its responsiveness to the general-purpose DRAM market, which currently records higher operating profit margins than HBM. The industry view is that this decision is based on the judgment that there is no need to rush the transition to HBM4 and HBM4E (7th-generation HBM), given that the company has already secured a solid position in the HBM market.

Behind this strategic shift lies the reversal in profitability between general-purpose DRAM and HBM. As of the first quarter of this year, the price per gigabit (Gb) of general-purpose DRAM still lags behind that of HBM, but the gap in operating profit margins is estimated to have already widened to more than 15 percentage points (P). Daishin Securities projected that the operating profit margin for general-purpose DRAM could reach a theoretical peak of 90% within the year.

"An official familiar with SK Hynix stated, 'SK Hynix management cannot help but be mindful that their competitor (Samsung Electronics) is already generating massive profits from general-purpose DRAM rather than HBM.'" The official explained, "Since production forecasts for Nvidia's next-generation chip 'Rubin,' which will be equipped with HBM4, are also trending downward, there is no reason to accelerate the transition to HBM."

The perspective of overseas investment banks (IBs) also supports this trend. Goldman Sachs assessed that it would be sufficient for SK Hynix to maintain a dominant position of over 50% in HBM3 (4th generation HBM) and HBM3E (5th generation HBM) until at least 2026. Morgan Stanley identified the overall memory price cycle, rather than the defense of HBM market share, as the key driver of SK Hynix's value, and raised its earnings forecast by 56–63% based on the projection that the average selling price of DRAM will rise by 62% by 2026.

In fact, SK Hynix announced in its first-quarter earnings report that the average selling price (ASP) of DRAM had risen to the mid-60% range and presented a plan to focus on meeting demand for high-density server modules and mobile products. The signing of a three-year DDR5 supply contract with Microsoft (MS) is also interpreted as a move to secure long-term earnings visibility in general-purpose DRAM.

On the other hand, as SK Hynix moves to control HBM4 production volume, the possibility of its competitor Samsung Electronics rising in market share is also increasing. According to Counterpoint Research, SK Hynix’s HBM market share stood at 57% in the fourth quarter of last year, but there is talk of a potential gradual contraction; furthermore, it is observed that if Samsung Electronics succeeds in mass-producing HBM4 in the second half of this year, SK Hynix’s share could drop to the 50–60% range.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/23/2026 - 09:40

US Airlines Set To Pocket $40 Billion As Jet Fuel Prices Crash

By Alex Kimani of OilPrice.com

US airlines stand to save billions in dollars on jet fuel costs after the US-Iran peace deal sent oil prices sharply lower.

Brent crude was trading around $78 per barrel, the lowest price since the start of the war, after Washington and Tehran agreed to a ceasefire and committed to 60 days of negotiations, while jet fuel spot prices fell to $2.85 a gallon, down sharply from $4.88. 

The dip in fuel costs could slash the U.S. airline industry’s annual fuel bill by more than $40 billion, easing the pressure on carriers who were facing margin pressures and a painful earnings squeeze. 

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) previously warned that exploding fuel costs would halve global airline net profits in 2026 to $23 billion. 

However, unlike previous oil price downcycles, airlines are unlikely to pass on these cost savings to passengers in the form of lower air fares. 

According to Raymond James, average domestic airfares booked one week prior to travel were up 9% week-over-week and 34.1% from a year earlier as of June 8.  In previous fuel cycles, dropping oil prices usually triggered capacity expansion that pushed fares lower; however, the current market is operating under different dynamics. First off, jet fuel prices rose three times faster than ticket prices between January and May, slapping carriers with $100 billion in extra fuel costs after oil prices spiked amid the Iran war. This implies that airlines are likely to use this windfall to stabilize their balance sheets. 

Second, tight airport capacity, aircraft delivery delays and weaker low-cost carriers are likely to limit a broader domestic fare war. 

Global aircraft backlogs are currently at record highs, with deliveries lagging roughly 30% behind peak levels. Domestic airline capacity in the United States has largely stagnated, with current projections that airline seats will grow just 0.4%Y/Y in the third quarter, down from expectations of 4.6% growth before the war.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/23/2026 - 09:30

Primoris Services Crashes Again As Guidance Cut And Mgmt Missteps Spook Wall Street

Shares of Primoris Services crashed in premarket trading after the infrastructure contractor slashed its full-year earnings outlook (again) and announced the departure of its chief operating officer.

The specialty construction and infrastructure contractor, which builds, maintains, and engineers critical infrastructure for utilities, energy, renewables, pipelines, power generation, industrial, chemical, oil and gas, civil infrastructure, and data-center power projects, blamed the guidance cut on weakness in its renewables business, where full-year revenue is now expected to fall about 30% from 2025 levels.

Primoris lowered its adjusted earnings forecast to $2.05 to $2.60 a share, well below the prior $4.80 to $5 range and the $4.74 Bloomberg consensus estimate. Adjusted EBITDA is now expected to be $275 million to $325 million, down from a previous range of $480 million to $500 million.

"The Company is also anticipating lower revenue and gross profit for the full year 2026, primarily driven by lower expected revenue and gross profit in the Renewables business,"the company wrote in a press release. The warning comes as the Trump administration has focused on dialing back solar and wind projects in favor of reliable fossil-fuel power generation to shore up the fragile grid after an era of disastrous climate policies by the Biden-Harris regime.

Snapshot of full-year forecast (courtesy of Bloomberg):

• Sees adjusted EPS $2.05 to $2.60, saw $4.80 to $5, estimate $4.74 (Bloomberg Consensus)
• Sees adjusted Ebitda $275 million to $325 million, saw $480.0 million to $500.0 million, estimate $477.1 million
• Sees EPS $1.30 to $1.85, saw $4.05 to $4.25

Shares tumbled 34% in premarket trading, one month after plunging 50% on disappointing results and a guidance cut. As of Monday's close, the stock was down 13% this year.

Institutional commentary:

1. Wolfe Research analyst Steve Fleishman commented on the dismal earnings: "Painful second guidance cut following several signs indicating another blow up. The good news, it's still just the six solar projects. Credibility concerns remain, but the $2B of bookings highlight demand remains as strong as ever for E&Cs."

2. KeyBanc analyst Sangita Jain noted, "We need to step away until a clear picture of the underlying renewables business emerges and steps to right the ship become evident."

3. Guggenheim analyst Joseph Osha wrote, "We reiterate our Buy rating and support for PRIM's stock following the relatively predictable cut to numbers yesterday. The company's CEO and board have made a series of significant mistakes in our view, but those mistakes do not reduce the underlying value of PRIM's businesses, especially those outside of the troubled renewable segment. Our price target continues to stand at $162."

4. JPMorgan analyst Mark Strouse published his first take, indicating, "First Take: Digging a Hole; PRIM Significantly Lowers Guidance Again, More Leadership Changes."

Strouse provided clients with an adjusted EBITDA midpoint guidance pathway that management has laid out to investors over the course of the year, showing a significant rerating lower as execution problems in the renewables segment worsened.

Analysts tracked by Bloomberg show 10 "Buy" ratings, 4 "Neutrals," and 1 "Sell", with a $140 average 12-month price target.

2025 and 2026 gains have been mostly wiped out.

Certaintly Primoris has evaporated all confidence from the market with a series of material downside surprises to guidance over the last several months.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/23/2026 - 09:10

Oracle Cuts 21,000 Jobs As AI Adoption Deepens And Credit Risk Flashes GFC-Era Highs

Oracle disclosed in a Form 10-K filing that it reduced its workforce by 21,000 employees over the past year as it automates white-collar jobs and frees up cash to splurge on AI infrastructure buildouts.

"Our periodic workforce restructurings and reorganizations can be disruptive,"  Oracle said in the annual financial regulatory publsihed on Monday, adding, "We have an existing restructuring plan in place under which we have made, and will continue to make, adjustments to our workforce in response to management changes, product changes, performance issues, changes in strategies, acquisitions and other internal and external considerations."

It noted, "We may initiate new restructuring plans in the future. In addition, the adoption and deployment of AI technologies across our operations have resulted, and may continue to result, in reductions to our workforce."

The filing detailed how the tech giant ended its fiscal year with 141,000 full-time employees, down from 162,000 a year earlier. Costs associated with the workforce reduction totaled around $1.8 billion.

The labor cuts come as Oracle faces pressure amid its $55.7 billion capital expenditure spending spree in fiscal 2026, which is almost entirely tied to its AI cloud and data center buildout. That was up from $21.2 billion in fiscal 2025, meaning capex more than doubled year over year.

For fiscal 2027, Oracle is guiding even higher: about $70 billion in capex, plus another $20 billion to $25 billion of spending that it expects customers to repay. That implies up to $95 billion for AI and data-center capex in the current fiscal year.

Bloomberg was the first to report in March that Oracle planned to cut its workforce as it aggressively spent on AI data center buildouts.

Wall Street analysts forecast that the cloud unit's data center spending will drive Oracle's cash flow negative through the end of the decade, with a payoff not expected until 2030. In January, Oracle announced plans to raise $50 billion in debt and equity.

ORCL 5 Year CDS exploded to record highs ...

ORCL 5 Year CDS vs. Oracle equity 

The labor restructuring should come as no surprise, as we cited Barclays earlier this year, which proposed that the "next step" for Oracle to drive free cash flow would be to lay off between 20,000 and 30,000 employees.

Read:

• A Panicking Oracle Plans To Raise Up To $50 Billion, As Its Stock And Bonds Crater
• Oracle Firing Tens Of Thousands As CDS Explodes To Financial Crisis Record
• Oracle Prepares To Axe Thousands Of Jobs In New Layoff Round

Oracle has joined the growing party of tech giants, including Meta, Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, Xai, and others, that have outlined AI capex plans this year, collectively totaling $800 billion.

Last month, Meta axed some 8,000 jobs as the great "white-collar purge" continues across corporate America. AI has led to about 50,000 layoffs so far this year in the US, with IBM and Salesforce announcing large cuts.

Related:

• 20 College Majors Most Exposed To AI Job Disruption

Oracle appears to be using labor restructuring to start digging itself out of the considerable hole it has dug, with more layoffs likely this year.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/23/2026 - 08:30

Israel Sets 3 Key 'Conditions' For Ending Occupation Of South Lebanon

Via The Cradle

Israel has set several “conditions” for the withdrawal of its occupation forces from Lebanon, Hebrew newspaper Israel Hayom reported this week – after Tel Aviv was forced to stop bombing the country due to the US–Iran agreement. 

"Israel has three minimum conditions for withdrawing its forces from southern Lebanon: the withdrawal of all Hezbollah terrorists north of the Litani River; the dismantling of Hezbollah … infrastructure south of the Litani; and full Israeli freedom of action to remove threats," the report said.

via Reuters

At the same time, Israel will continue to insist on maintaining a "defensive strip" in the country, senior officials told the outlet. 

The Israel Hayom report claims that occupation forces have surrounded a fortified underground complex at Ali al-Taher Hill, located east of Nabatieh and north of the Litani River. 

Ali al-Taher Hill is a highly strategic location overlooking the city of Nabatieh. Israel has been attempting to capture the area, but has faced fierce resistance and has been engaged in heavy battles over the area for several weeks. 

Israel Hayom and other Hebrew reports say the area holds an important command center for Hezbollah operations.

The report claimed resistance fighters are besieged there and that “Israel's security establishment do not know how long the trapped terrorists will be able to hold out underground, but what is clear is that the military is preventing them from coming out.”

The Israeli army “does not intend to withdraw from the site until those terrorists are eliminated or surrender, followed by the destruction of the underground infrastructure.”

Unofficial reports and observers on social media say that the complex in question may be Hezbollah’s famous Imad-4 facility, which serves as a key command and weapons storage site.

Israel Hayom claims troops “are now positioned at all the entrances to the concrete, fortified command post,” adding that “dozens of terrorists underground are under growing distress, and it is no coincidence that they are activating Iran, which is demanding that the US force Israel into a ceasefire in Washington.”

The report comes after a brutal Israeli escalation in Lebanon over the weekend, which killed at least 100 people. Major clashes between Israeli troops and Hezbollah resistance fighters also raged throughout the weekend before a cessation of hostilities was imposed on Tel Aviv by Tehran’s pressure on Washington. 

Five Israeli occupation soldiers, including a battalion chief, were killed by the Shia resistance fighters between Thursday and Saturday – including four who burned to death in their tank.

Hezbollah has denied Israeli claims that its fighters are besieged, saying such reports were designed to boost the morale of Israeli forces after their failure to advance in the area.

Israeli officials continue to publicly reject withdrawal and are vowing that Tel Aviv’s forces will remain in the so-called ‘security zone’ in south Lebanon. “We don’t have territorial ambitions in Lebanon, but we will not withdraw from the security zone and expose our citizens to Hezbollah’s attacks and possible invasion,” says Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar. 

His comments coincided with a CNN report saying Israel was considering “symbolic” withdrawals from “minor areas” in south Lebanon.

Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich had said a day earlier that Tel Aviv will maintain an occupation in Lebanon for years. "We are there until Hezbollah disarms, and I think also beyond that, because we need defendable borders,” he said in an interview. 

🇮🇱🇱🇧 New Evidence Regarding an Underground Hezbollah Facility in the Ali a-Taher Area

While it had previously been widely believed that the sprawling underground complex in the Ali a-Taher ridge area was a strategic Hezbollah facility, Lebanese sources are now offering a… pic.twitter.com/q2ehjdH96f

— Barong (@Barong369) June 22, 2026

Asked if the military would stay “for years” in Lebanon, Smotrich said, “Yes, and I say this as someone who is currently holding negotiations over the management of the defense budget for the next decade.”

He stressed that “until Hezbollah disarms, we aren’t moving a millimeter,” adding that Israel’s prime minister and war minister support this stance. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/23/2026 - 08:05