Zero Rss

"We Shouldn't Have To Live Like This": UK Terror Level Raised To 'Severe' After Stabbing Attacks

Britain's terrorism threat level was raised from “substantial” to “severe” on Thursday afternoon after a 45-year-old British national, reportedly born in Somalia, stabbed two Jewish men in North London. The elevation in the terrorism threat level suggests another terror attack is highly likely within the next six months, as Britain's experiment with mass migration is backfiring.

The suspect is 45-year-old Essa Suleiman from south-east London, the BBC understands. He came to the UK from Somalia in the early 1990s -BBC News

So it's now transpired that the Golders Green terrorist is named Essa Suleiman.

Somali who has a history of violence, including stabbing two police officers and a police dog in 2008! https://t.co/Y4RfMi7OKR pic.twitter.com/kpCwmBEDur

— Tommy Robinson 🇬🇧 (@TRobinsonNewEra) April 30, 2026

Shabana Mahmood, the Home Secretary, described Wednesday's attack as terrorism. "Today, the national threat level has increased to 'severe,' which means a terrorist attack is considered highly likely."

"I know this will be a source of concern to many, particularly amongst our Jewish community, who have suffered so much," Mahmood said.

🚨 BREAKING: Keir Starmer's full address to the nation over the Golders Green terror attack

"If you stand alongside people who say Globalize the Intifada, you are calling for terrorism against Jews"

"I call on everyone decent in this country to open their eyes to Jewish pain" pic.twitter.com/Y8kJgoWOhq

— Politics UK (@PolitlcsUK) April 30, 2026

The Joint Terrorism Analysis Center's decision to raise the national terror threat level comes in the wake of a Somalia-born man stabbing two Jewish men and follows a series of attacks in Jewish neighborhoods in recent weeks.

For context, "severe" is the second-highest of five threat levels, below "critical," which means another attack is likely in the coming months, if not sooner. The last time the level was raised to "severe" was in November 2021.

The UK terror threat level has been raised to severe, meaning an attack is highly likely.

We shouldn’t have to live like this.

A serious country takes a zero tolerance approach to terrorism: anyone involved in planning, supporting, or enabling it should face the full force of… https://t.co/xbzy6DZQg5

— Ben Graham (@BenGrahamUK) April 30, 2026

Mahmood added: "The government has today announced a significant increase in investment to protect our Jewish communities, with record funding for policing and security at synagogues, schools and community centers. And we will do everything in our power to rid society of the evil of antisemitism. The stabbing in north London follows a spate of attacks in Jewish neighborhoods in recent weeks.

'Mass illegal migration is pushing Glasgow to breaking point and anarchy' 👇

𝘐𝘔𝘈𝘎𝘌: 𝘒𝘢𝘵𝘳𝘪𝘯𝘦 𝘉𝘶𝘴𝘴𝘦𝘺/𝘗𝘈 𝘞𝘪𝘳𝘦/𝘗𝘈 𝘐𝘮𝘢𝘨𝘦𝘴 pic.twitter.com/bERMrKrCky

— The Herald (@heraldscotland) April 30, 2026

Alex Armstrong of GB News recently described the devastating impact that decades of the mass-migration experiment have had on the UK.

🚨ALEX ARMSTRONG CALLS FOR ZERO IMMIGRATION TO UK

"People are sick to death of mass migration and the devastating impact it’s had on our country."

I would say go one step further

We need REMIGRATION

The people who have came here need to go home pic.twitter.com/SxssQ3dwrh

— Basil the Great (@BasilTheGreat) January 12, 2026

Also...

UK terror watchdog calls for a ban on pro-Palestine marches https://t.co/j3RaaW3fHp

— NewsWire (@NewsWire_US) April 30, 2026

Suicidal empathy has very real consequences; in other words, the death of Europe.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/01/2026 - 04:15

China Reopens Fuel Export Spigot, Offering Relief To Asian Buyers

Beijing is reversing its curbs on refined fuel exports after halting shipments in the opening days of the U.S.-Iran conflict. This move suggests that Chinese domestic inventories are now at comfortable levels, allowing state refiners to reopen the export spigot, even as much of Asia remains gripped by a fuel shock caused by disrupted Gulf energy flows through the Hormuz chokepoint.

There was chatter earlier this week that China's state-owned refiners were applying for government permits to resume fuel exports in May. These include China Petrochemical (Sinopec Group) and China National Petroleum Corporation.

By late in the week, Bloomberg reported that state-owned refiners had received government approval to export 500,000 tons of fuel next month.

People familiar with the upcoming shipments said the one-off quota would allow gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel to be sent to neighboring Asian countries, providing relief amid a worsening fuel crunch.

They said these shipments will be loaded onto tankers and are likely destined for Vietnam, Laos, and other nearby nations.

China's U-turn on export curbs comes weeks after the International Monetary Fund, World Bank, and International Energy Agency urged countries to avoid panic hoarding of energy supplies, as JPMorgan analysts warned that Asia would face the most immediate impact from the Gulf energy shock.

 

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/01/2026 - 03:30

Trump Threatens To Pull Some US Troops Out Of Germany While Lambasting 'Ineffective' Merz

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has been a bit on the defensive since his earlier in the week swipe at President Trump over launching the war against Iran. The German leader had told students in a talk that the US is being "humiliated" by Iranian leaders. He had also asserted, "If I had known that it would continue like this for five or six weeks and get progressively worse, I would have told ​him even more emphatically."

As we covered earlier Thursday, Merz has tried to soften the spat, after Trump responded on Truth Social earlier, "From my perspective, my personal relationship with the ​US President remains good," he told reporters. "I simply had doubts from the ⁠start about what was begun with the war in Iran. That is ​why I have made that clear."

But that hasn't quieted Trump, who again hit back again in a fresh Thursday morning Truth Social post, which emphasized that the German Chancellor should focus more on problems like the Russia-Ukraine war, where "he has been totally ineffective" - Trump said. 

The US President once again reiterated that Germany is "broken" - and that this especially true on immigration and energy. He also reiterated that his Operation Epic Fury is making "the World, including German, a safer place!"

However, Merz earlier sought to place some of Germany's economic woes precisely on the war raging in the Middle East, and ongoing Strait of Hormuz closure. His initial April 29 remarks had included the following: "In Germany and Europe we are ​suffering from the consequences, such as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz,” he had said.

Wednesday night saw Trump issue a new, important threat, which he has been teasing as a possibility for day:

"The United States is studying and reviewing the possible reduction of Troops in Germany, with a determination to be made over the next short period of time," Trump wrote on Truth Social.

Responsible Statecraft's Trita Parsi is also a deep Iran war critic, but says that EU leaders are full of hypocrisy on the Iran issue, and that it needs to be called out. Parsi writes:

Merz isn't wrong in saying he's "disillusioned" with the US & Israel over Iran because they "claimed at the beginning that they could solve this problem within days. Now I must recognize: It is not solved." But he is in no position to complain. He applauded the war and as a result, owns the outcome. This is typical of some EU leaders who support and help facilitate the US's worst instincts, and then pretend they are innocent when the foreign policy adventure predictably goes wrong.

The comments underscore several European leaders’ reassessment of their relations with Trump. A tendency to smooth ties by currying favor has given way to a more sober perspective of a U.S. president who has repeatedly called into question NATO, bolstered European far-right forces and threatened to seize Greenland, a territory of Denmark.

Meanwhile Merz holds a presser in military fatigues, hilariously enough...

German Chancellor Merz demands:

Iran must come to the negotiating table.

It must stop playing for time.

It must not continue to take the entire region — and ultimately the whole world — hostage.

The military nuclear program in Iran must be ended.

There must be no more… pic.twitter.com/xkaf6Eh7wh

— Clash Report (@clashreport) April 30, 2026

Regardless, the fresh critique by a leading EU head of state is certainly going to add fuel to the fire of Trump's ratcheting anti-EU and anti-NATO rhetoric, given their absence in helping the US get the Strait of Hormuz back open and the return to normal functioning of global energy transit once again.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/01/2026 - 02:45

Top Russian & Indian Think Tanks Devised A Plan For Rebalancing Economic Relations

Authored by Andrew Korbybko via Substack,

Sanctions, bureaucracy, and logistics are the primary obstacles to “diversifying economic ties and correcting the existing imbalance”, but these can be surmounted through SMEs playing a greater role, more localization and procedure simplifications, and optimizing their trade corridors.

The Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC) and Gateway House, which are among their country’s top think tanks, published a joint report in late March about moving “Toward More Balanced Russia–India Economic Relations” for the second Russia-India International Conference. It’s over 40 pages long so this piece will highlight the top takeaways and then briefly analyze them. The report began by acknowledging the challenges posed by US sanctions for reaching their goal of $100 billion in bilateral trade by 2030.

The solution that was presented, especially for the oil and financial industries, is having Indian SMEs play a much greater role due to their much less exposure (if any at all) to the US’ secondary sanctions. China’s “tea pot” model of small refineries is mentioned as an example for India’s oil industry to follow. The authors also proposed bilateral cooperation in building similar such facilities in Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Kenya, Myanmar, and Sri Lanka, for example. India would thus help Russia meet their smaller demand.

Their suggestion for expanding critical minerals cooperation is for their state-owned companies to form joint R&D initiatives to strengthen their technological self-sufficiency. As for doing the same in the broad health-related field (biotech, pharmaceuticals, etc.), it’s recommended that Indian manufacturers localize production, IP rights, etc., in Russia to better overcome bureaucratic hurdles. Russian research capabilities could also pair with Indian manufacturing capacity to expand market share in third countries.

The bureaucratic hurdles mentioned above also impede cooperation on food and textile industries, but simplifying procedures could help, especially through the creation of unified digital platforms. More industrial cooperation is possible, especially in the automotive, aviation, and railway industries, but localization is likely the prerequisite. Improving logistics across the North-South Transport Corridor and the Vladivostok-Chennai Maritime Corridor can reduce costs and thus raise incentives for scaling trade.

More technological cooperation is difficult for the multiple reasons that were enumerated in the report, not least of which is global competition, so this might prove disappointing in the future. Each’s SMEs might have better chances, but overall, this might not expand associated cooperation all that much. What’s much more promising is labor cooperation, which is already a work in progress that readers can learn more about here, basically amounting to Russia replacing Central Asian labor with Indian.

To review, sanctions, bureaucracy, and logistics are the primary obstacles to “diversifying economic ties and correcting the existing imbalance”, but these can be surmounted through SMEs playing a greater role, more localization and procedure simplifications, and optimizing their trade corridors. Although the prospects for more technological cooperation are dim, efforts nevertheless shouldn’t be abandoned due to the strategic importance of this industry, especially its AI component.

The authors conclude that Russia and India’s $100 billion trade goal by 2030 is realistic, but this requires urgently implementing the aforementioned proposals to increase 2025’s estimated $60 billion in trade by another $40 billion in the next four years, which will be very difficult to achieve and then maintain. The Third Gulf War has caused radical changes to the global energy market, Eurasian logistics, and the financial industry, however, so it’s premature to predict the odds of success till the dust finally settles.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/01/2026 - 02:00

Congress Passes 45-Day Extension Of FISA Section 702, Sending It To Trump's Desk

Authored by Joseph Lord via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

President Donald Trump on Thursday signed a bill to extend a spying authority of Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) for 45 days as congressional debate on the controversial measure continues.

The U.S. Capitol building on April 29, 2026. Madalina Kilroy/The Epoch Times

Both chambers of Congress raced to pass the short-term measure earlier Thursday after the Senate declined to take up a House-passed bill to extend the deadline until 2029.

The House passed the “clean” extension, without reforms, which punts the deadline from April 30 to June 12, in a 261–111 vote. It was passed under a suspension of the rules, meaning it relied on Democratic support to pass. However, opposition to the measure was also bipartisan, with 26 Republicans joining 85 Democrats in casting a “No” vote.

The measure’s passage and signature into law came just hours before the critical—but contentious—power was due to expire.

The 45-day extension was proposed and passed by the Senate earlier on Thursday after it became clear that a three-year extension passed by the House the night before couldn’t pass the Senate before the midnight deadline.

Section 702 allows U.S. intelligence agencies to collect emails, phone calls, texts, and other communications of foreign nationals located outside the United States for national security purposes, such as tracking terrorism, espionage, or weapons proliferation, without obtaining an individualized warrant.

However, the data of Americans who communicate with these foreign targets can be incidentally gathered and is available to U.S. intelligence without a warrant—a “backdoor search” loophole that has come under criticism by privacy advocates.

Trump, despite his current support for a clean reauthorization of the power, has acknowledged his experience with the law in the past.

In a post on Truth Social, he described it as “the worst and most illegal abuse of FISA in [U.S.] History,” referencing disclosures that revealed that the FBI had used Section 702 of FISA to spy on Trump’s 2016 presidential campaign as part of the Crossfire Hurricane operation.

Nevertheless, Trump has praised the intelligence utility of the authority when used appropriately.

However, some lawmakers in both chambers are disinclined to agree: Bipartisan concerns about Section 702’s effects on American civil liberties, particularly Fourth Amendment protections, are as old as the legislation itself.

Despite Trump’s calls for a clean reauthorization—calls that have won the support of House Judiciary Committee Chairman Jim Jordan (R-Ohio)—many of those congressional skeptics are among Trump’s closest allies, including lawmakers like Reps. Anna Paulina Luna (R-Fla.) and Ralph Norman (R-S.C.).

On Wednesday, the lower chamber also authorized a bill that would extend Section 702 of FISA for three years, but that measure included provisions that have been opposed by Senate Democrats.

Namely, the three-year extension bill would prohibit the Federal Reserve from issuing digital currency, an asset class known as central bank digital currency.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) has long warned that such a measure would struggle in the upper chamber, and urged the House against attaching it to the reauthorization measure.

Jackson Richman contributed to this report.  

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/30/2026 - 23:30

Saudi Arabia Public Investment Fund To Stop Funding LIV Golf After 2026 Season

LIV Golf is preparing to inform players and staff that its main financial backer, Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund, will stop funding the league after the 2026 season, according to Golfweek. The announcement—expected midweek—would open the door for CEO Scott O'Neil to pursue new investment to keep the tour running.

Since launching in 2022 as a challenger to the PGA Tour, the circuit has reportedly burned through more than $5 billion while failing to gain meaningful U.S. viewership. Broadcast deals with The CW Network and later Fox did little to improve ratings.

Uncertainty around funding has been building. In April, O’Neil acknowledged the league is only financed through this season, saying future survival depends on securing new backers—even as he publicly maintained LIV is in its best position yet.

Golfweek writes that the timing aligns with a broader shift by PIF, led by Yasir Al-Rumayyan, toward prioritizing domestic projects over global spending.

LIV did manage to lure big names like Phil Mickelson, Dustin Johnson, Bryson DeChambeau, and Jon Rahm with lucrative deals. Still, its team-based, no-cut format struggled to resonate broadly, despite pockets of success overseas and moments like Anthony Kim’s brief resurgence.

Efforts to align with the PGA Tour—including a 2023 framework agreement that followed LIV’s antitrust lawsuit—ultimately stalled, even with involvement from Donald Trump.

Recent player movement has added to the uncertainty, with figures such as Brooks Koepka and Patrick Reed stepping away from LIV competition.

With only a handful of events remaining this season, LIV Golf now faces mounting pressure to secure fresh funding—or risk folding after 2026.

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/30/2026 - 23:00

1 In 5 Americans Are Still Working From Home

The COVID-19 pandemic marked a dramatic shift in workplace dynamics, as working from home suddenly became the norm for millions of workers in the United States and across the globe.

As Statista's Felix Richter notes, this transformation offered employees newfound flexibility, enabling them to manage their time more effectively, eliminate commutes, facilitate childcare and often achieve a better work-life balance. Remote work also allowed for a customized work environment, fostering comfort and productivity for many.

However, traditional office settings continue to hold unique advantages, which is why, six years later, more and more employers have called their workers back to the office for most days of the week. Offices facilitate in-person collaboration, spontaneous brainstorming and social interaction, all of which are challenging to replicate virtually. Additionally, the structured environment of an office can provide clearer boundaries between work and personal life, reducing distractions and helping employees switch off when at home.

According to Statista Consumer Insights, 1 in 5 American employees still worked from home regularly in 2025, while 43 percent of respondents regularly worked in a company office.

You will find more infographics at Statista

In many cases, hybrid models combining the benefits of both setups have emerged, catering to diverse employee preferences and living situations and striking a balance between the benefits and disadvantages of both working from home and in the office.

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/30/2026 - 22:30

L3Harris' Missile Business Files To Go Public As Trump's War Economy Prepares For Launch

We have been diligently tracking the Trump administration's war-economy mobilization across the homeland, from the rise of so-called "war unicorns" favored by the Department of War to Trump officials talking with GM, Ford, GE Aerospace, and Oshkosh about converting underused civilian industrial capacity into weapons production. The signal to investors is becoming hard to miss: the Trump administration is preparing to expand the defense industrial base at scale to refill depleted weapons stockpiles.

Whether through venture-backed defense startups, legacy defense primes, or redirected auto and heavy-manufacturing capacity, the White House's war policies point toward a major weapons-production boom on the horizon.

With that in mind, L3Harris Technologies has confidentially filed a draft S-1 with the SEC for a proposed IPO of its Missile Solutions business, or MSL.

L3Harris is now preparing for an IPO, as the SEC privately reviews the draft registration statement and may send comments or request changes. This occurs before the IPO roadshow begins.

Last week, L3Harris announced it had closed a $1 billion investment from the DoW into MSL, which will be used to "accelerate research and development, and increase production capacity for critical national security technologies."

"This strategic partnership with the Department of War is a testament to the critical role L3Harris plays in our national security," L3Harris CEO Christopher Kubasik wrote in a statement.

Kubasik noted, “The investment will allow us to accelerate innovation and enhance our ability to deliver the advanced capabilities our warfighters need to deter and defeat emerging threats. We are proud to partner with the DoW to ensure the resilience of our defense industrial base for years to come."

Related:

• Race To Refill U.S. Weapons Stockpiles Will Supercharge War Economy

• War Economy Returns: From Trucks To Tanks, Pentagon Looks To Automakers To Rebuild America's Arsenal

MSL will be a direct play on the DoW ramping up orders for PAC-3, THAAD, Tomahawk, and Standard Missile systems, given that the two theaters of conflict across Eurasia, Ukraine-Russia and U.S.-Iran, are draining key missile stockpiles.

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/30/2026 - 22:00

Aircraft Carrier Strike Group To Leave Middle East, Reducing Footprint Amid Iran War

Currently there are three American aircraft carrier groups in Middle East waters and near Iran in the context of Operation Epic Fury. By comparison, at the height of the Bush-ordered US invasion of Iraq in 2003, there were six total carrier groups - which were responsible for most of the large tomahawk missile strikes on Baghdad. 

Amid the current extended ceasefire between the US and Iran (and including Israel), there are indicators that Washington is not preparing for a ground invasion of the Islamic Republic anytime soon. First and foremost is that the USS Gerald R. Ford is set to return to the United States after nearly a year deployed in wartime operations - as it was previously in the Caribbean focused on Venezuela ops.

US Navy file image

Defense officials have newly told The Washington Post the carrier will leave the Middle East in the coming days and head back to Naval Station Norfolk, Virginia.

The publication confirms, "The aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford will depart the Middle East and begin the sail for home in coming days, multiple U.S. officials said, an expected relief for roughly 4,500 sailors who have been deployed for 10 months - but a loss of significant firepower as peace talks between the United States and Iran stagnate."

Its departure will leave the USS George H.W. Bush and the USS Abraham Lincoln in the Arabian Sea as the US Navy continues efforts to enforce a blockade on Iranian ports. Recent operations have seen dozens of Iranian vessels intercepted, even as others breached the blockade, with CENTCOM in a recent update saying that over 40 vessels have been turned back or intercepted.

There's still as yet no clear sign of imminent breakdown of the Iranian government or society, amid what's turned into a prolonged economic siege war - even though President Trump declared days ago that the Islamic Republic is 'fractured' and 'collapsing'.

The US retains additional carrier strike groups elsewhere, including the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower and the USS Theodore Roosevelt, which remain available for potential deployment later this year.

The longer the Iran conflict drags on, the more likely it is that additional carrier groups could head toward Mideast regional waters, including patrolling the Mediterranean, near Israel.

The Ford's return follows a record deployment exceeding 300 days that spanned the Caribbean, Europe, and the Middle East. Most recently, it had to undergo significant repairs - first in Cyprus and then at port in Croatia, for what's been described as a laundry room fire and persistent maintenance problems during its extended mission.

(Reuters) - A U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports has shrunk Tehran's oil exports, stranding a growing stockpile of crude on tankers as Iranian storage sites run out of space, shipping data showed and analysts said.

With some vessels switching off tracking systems and U.S.…

— Phil Stewart (@phildstewart) April 30, 2026

The crew has been described as overstretched and exhausted, while there are reports the carrier has come under Iranian attack - though which the Pentagon has repeatedly denied posed any real threat.

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/30/2026 - 21:30

Hezbollah's Cheap Fiber Optic Drones A Growing, Deadly Problem For Israeli Troop Convoys

Via The Cradle

Hezbollah attacked the Israeli army with a fiber-optic drone in the Galilee on Thursday, injuring at least a dozen soldiers and destroying a military vehicle. 

Israeli Army Radio reported that 12 soldiers were injured when the drone struck a military position in the Shomera settlement. Two soldiers were “moderately” injured while 10 sustained minor wounds, Army Radio added, also revealing that other soldiers may be transferred to the hospital later for anxiety and ringing in the ears.

Source: Israeli media/X

The drone directly struck an Israeli army vehicle in Shomera. Israel’s Channel 15 reported that it was likely a fiber-optic guided FPV drone.

A picture released by Hebrew media showed the military vehicle engulfed in flames. The vehicle was near the artillery launcher (howitzer), which the Lebanese resistance said it was targeting. 

"In defense of Lebanon and its people, and in response to the Israeli enemy’s violation of the ceasefire and attacks targeting villages and the demolition of homes in southern Lebanon, the fighters of the Islamic Resistance targeted, at 8:45 am on Thursday, April 30, 2026, a 155 mm self-propelled artillery piece south of the town of Yaroun using an attack drone, achieving a confirmed hit," Hezbollah said in a statement on Thursday morning. 

Secondary explosions were seen in video footage on social media, as a result of the ammunition that was present at the Israeli site. 

"Hezbollah successfully carried out a precise strike on an artillery battery inside Israeli territory, causing significant damage. Twelve soldiers were injured, two of them moderately. Hezbollah directed an explosive drone at a vehicle known as an 'Alpha,' which carries the artillery shells for the battery. The impact triggered secondary explosions that intensified the damage to the unit. A fire broke out at the site, which firefighting teams later brought under control. Soldiers from the Hasmonean Brigade assisted in treating and evacuating the wounded," Maariv newspaper reported.

Palestinian analyst and expert on Israeli affairs, Azzam Abu al-Adas, said "the range of fiber-optic cables can reach up to 70 kilometers, which is a challenge that was not anticipated. The ability of the drone to remain airborne for several minutes, along with its capacity for evasive and flexible maneuvering, has made it a weapon more dangerous than the Kornet – even against military and logistical targets deep inside the Galilee."

This marks the first time this type of drone has reached the western Galilee. Prior to the ceasefire, Hezbollah FPV drones targeted Kiryat Shmona and other areas in the upper Galilee.

WATCH | Footage shows secondary explosions following Hezbollah's drone strike on Shomera due to the ammunition that was present at the targeted site.

The struck armored vehicle was located near an M109A5 “Doher” howitzer loaded with 155mm high-explosive and white phosphorus… pic.twitter.com/h3k1fxBdyr

— The Cradle (@TheCradleMedia) April 30, 2026

The Hezbollah operation coincided with a report by Israel’s Channel 12, which said Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has asked US President Donald Trump to limit direct talks with Lebanon to a two-to-three-week window ending in mid-May. 

The report says Israel has conveyed to the US that if talks fail to produce results, it will seek approval to move forward with the original plan of expanded attacks against Hezbollah across Lebanon. 

Direct talks were launched by Beirut at Washington’s request. The Lebanese government refused Iran’s efforts to include it in the truce between Washington and Tehran. While Iranian pressure resulted in an end to strikes on the capital, Israel has continued brutal attacks on the south – coinciding with a ground invasion and occupation of scores of villages with the aim of creating a ‘buffer zone.’

Israeli forces are launching airstrikes and carrying out assassinations while demolishing villages on a daily basis. As a result, Hezbollah has expanded operations against troops inside Lebanon and army positions across the border. 

At least 16 Israeli soldiers have been killed by Hezbollah resistance fighters in south Lebanon since early March 2026. This week, one Israeli defense contractor was killed by a Hezbollah drone as he was destroying civilian homes in south Lebanon.

Hebrew media has expressed shock over the accuracy of Hezbollah’s FPV drones, labeling them a major challenge to troops. 

🚨Hezbollah’s deadly fiberoptic tethered drones poke huge hole in Israel’s defenses

$400-500 UAVs built from 3D-printed parts, Soviet RPG grenades and cheap FPV controls linked to spools of commercially-sourced fiberoptic cable are taking on tanks worth millions.

Fiberoptic… pic.twitter.com/CXtiT0ACIW

— Sputnik (@SputnikInt) April 28, 2026

At the start of the ground operation, the Israeli army failed to achieve the stated goal of occupying Lebanese territory up to the Litani River. Israeli forces were unable to fully capture the strategic and symbolic city of Bint Jbeil, which remains inhabited by resistance fighters despite efforts to besiege the city and carry out a scorched-earth policy. 

A poll published by Israel’s Broadcasting Corporation (KAN) this week found that a majority of Israelis believe that Tel Aviv has failed to secure victory on any front since October 2023.

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/30/2026 - 21:00

Massive Lithium Lode In Appalachia Could Power 130 Million EVs: USGS

America's worrisome dependency on foreign sources of lithium could become a thing of the past: About 328 years' worth of last year's lithium imports is buried in Appalachia, according to a new analysis published by the US Geological Survey (USGS). That's about 2.3 million metric tons of undiscovered but economically recoverable lithium -- aka "white gold."  

“This research shows that the Appalachians contain enough lithium to help meet the nation’s growing needs – a major contribution to U.S. mineral security, at a time when global lithium demand is rising rapidly,” said USGS Director Ned Mamula. "The United States was the dominant world producer of lithium three decades ago, and this research highlights the abundant potential to reclaim our mineral independence.” Today, Australia is the top producer, and China in second place -- however, China boasts about 60% of the world's lithium refining capacity for batteries.   

The deposits are spread over a large swath of territory. The southern Appalachians -- primarily the Carolinas -- have about 1.43 million metric tons, while the northern Appalachians hold 900,000 metric tons, most of it in Maine, New Hampshire and Vermont, USGS says. Added up, it's enough to put the requisite lithium in 130 million electric vehicles, or a thousand years worth of laptop production. 

USGS project global lithium production capacity will double over the next three years. In April, Finland became the first European country to host the full continuum of lithium production, from an open-pit mine that produces battery-grade lithium hydroxide, to a refinery. "The €783 million project is operated by Keliber Oy, a Finnish mining and battery-materials company," EuroNews reported. 

Today, there's only one operating lithium mine in America: the Albemarle Silver Peak Mine in Nevada. Earlier this week, environmentalists sued to stop exploratory drilling in Oregon near the Nevada border. The US Bureau of Land Management had given the green light for HiTech Minerals to set up 168 drill sites over five years, on a 7,200-acre expanse of public land. The plaintiffs include "Great Old Broads for Wilderness." In a 2024 analysis, USGS concluded that brines in southwest Arkansas' Smackover Formation hold 5 to 19 million metric tons of lithium, but didn't determine what proportion is economically recoverable. 

To say the more-promising Appalachian deposits were created a long time ago is an understatement. "Lithium-rich pegmatites in the northern Appalachians formed from the same geologic forces that built the mountains more than 250 million years ago," explained the USGS, a Department of the Interior organization and the country's largest water, earth and biological science mapping organization. "The high heat and pressure during the mountain-building caused some of the deeper crustal rocks to melt, and some of these magmas were rich in lithium." 

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/30/2026 - 20:30

Hershey CEO Says GLP-1 Boom Fuels Demand For Gum And Mints

Hershey reported first-quarter sales and earnings that exceeded Bloomberg-tracked analyst expectations, driven by higher candy prices and resilient consumer demand.

Beyond the earnings report, CEO Kirk Tanner made one very notable comment in prepared remarks: demand for gum and mints remains strong, with the category benefiting from "functional snacking" tailwinds tied to GLP-1 adoption.

"We've also seen strong demand for gum and mint products as the category benefits from functional snacking tailwinds, including GLP-1 adoption," Tanner said.

GLP-1 drugs suppress appetite and slow digestion, so it appears that many users who no longer want a full calorie-packed snack or meal are gravitating toward gum and mints instead.

That is an unexpected positive for Hershey, a company best known for Reese's, Kit Kat in the U.S., Almond Joy, Mounds, York, Twizzlers, and other confectionery brands.

While weight-loss drugs have raised concerns about reduced calorie intake and lower food purchases, Hershey's gum and mint portfolio appears to be benefiting from a shift toward lower-calorie gum and mints.

Tanner told analysts on the earnings call, "It is a treat, not a meal," adding that the company is spending a lot of time researching the expanding use of GLP-1 drugs and incorporating that into its outlook. "The confection category is relatively insulated compared to other food categories."

 

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/30/2026 - 20:05

Here Come The Cancellations: Brookfield-Backed Compass Pulls Out From Major Northern Virginia Data Center Project

Compass Datacenters has decided to withdraw from its plan to develop a major data-center corridor in Northern Virginia after spending years pursuing approvals and investing tens of millions of dollars, according to Bloomberg.

The company ultimately concluded the project wasn’t feasible due to mounting legal challenges, stricter regulations, and weakening political support, particularly around tax incentives.

This move highlights a broader shift in how communities and policymakers are responding to data-center projects. Local residents have increasingly raised concerns about issues like energy consumption, environmental impact, and potential effects on property values. As a result, companies in the industry are finding it more difficult, expensive, and time-consuming to gain approval for new developments.

Bloomberg writes that the proposed project was part of a larger effort to expand Northern Virginia’s role as a global hub for data centers. However, conflicts over land use, public notice procedures, and zoning approvals led to court rulings that invalidated key permissions. Faced with the prospect of prolonged legal battles and uncertain outcomes, Compass chose to step back.

The situation also reflects growing political sensitivity around how much support these developments should receive. Debates over tax breaks and incentives have made officials more cautious, while organized community opposition has become more influential in shaping decisions. Together, these pressures are forcing companies to rethink where and how they expand.

Meanwhile, another developer involved in the broader plan is still considering whether to continue challenging the rulings, showing that while some companies are retreating, others may continue pushing forward despite the growing resistance.

Recall days ago we wrote that half of US data centers scheduled for 2026 would be cancelled or delayed. We wrote then that the outlook for the US AI revolution looks increasingly more dim. 

That's because, as Canaccord Genuity analyst George Gianarikas writes, "the American data center boom is hitting a formidable wall of logistical friction." He is referring to the latest outlook by Sightline Climate, which is also reinforced by recent articles from Bloomberg and others, and reveals a sobering reality for 2026: nearly half of the nation's planned 16-gigawatt capacity faces cancellation or delay, with only 5 gigawatts currently under construction.

This inertia stems from a volatile mix of local permitting hurdles, community resistance, and a desperate reliance on overextended global supply chains for critical components like transformers and helium.

That's right: half.

That's right: despite $700BN+ of expected 2026 hyperscaler capex, nearly half of the data centers scheduled to begin operations in the US in 2026 "will either face delays or outright cancellations."

The data, which comes from Sightline Climate's 2026 Data Center Outlook,  suggests that just 30% - 50% of the ~16 GW of planned US capacity for the year will face risks, with only ~5 GW currently under construction!

By 2027, the gap between ambition and reality widens further, as a mere fraction of the announced 21.5 gigawatts has actually broken ground. Worse, according to Futurism, data centers slated to open in 2027 are progressing far more slowly than anticipated. "Only about 6.3 gigawatts worth of computing infrastructure are actually under construction, compared to 21.5 announced gigawatts."

And then visibility drops to virtually nothing beyond 2028 as uncertainty increases materially in the outer years. According to the article, "things get even dodgier in the coming years, with the vast majority of data centers planned for launch between 2028 and 2032 having yet to even break ground. There are a further 37 gigawatts of planned infrastructure which haven’t even received a firm completion date, only 4.5 [gigawatts] of which have actually begun work."

This trend suggests an increasingly uncertain future for the industry, where power constraints and grid instability cast long shadows over projects slated through 2032.

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/30/2026 - 19:40

CCP Moves To Tighten Oversight Of Gig Workers

Authored by Michael Zhuang via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Beijing is moving to tighten its grip on tens of millions of gig workers—an increasingly vital but volatile segment of China’s labor force—prompting warnings from analysts that the effort could deepen social tensions rather than contain them.

Delivery workers from Chinese shopping platform Meituan gather for a briefing before they start their shift near a mall in Beijing on Aug. 21, 2025. Wang Zhao/AFP via Getty Images

On April 26, China’s top leadership bodies, the General Office of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and the State Council, released new guidelines via Chinese state media Xinhua News Agency, calling for stronger management of what the CCP describes as the country’s “new employment groups.”

The directive, while only now made public, is dated Oct. 29 last year. It calls for increased adherence to Xi Jinping’s political doctrine and urges workers to “listen to and follow the Party.”

Using vague language, it also mentions plans for “a working mechanism characterized by top-to-bottom coordination” by the year 2027, with further objectives coming within another three to five years, including that “ideological and political guidance will be more forceful.”

The move comes as Beijing seeks to assert tighter control over the fast-growing gig workforce that now numbers about 84 million people—roughly one-fifth of China’s employed population—according to a February analysis in “Qiushi,” a CCP propaganda magazine.

Vast, Hard-to-Control Workforce

China defines “new employment groups” as workers that are engaged in flexible, platform-based jobs tied to the digital economy. They include food delivery riders, couriers, ride-hailing drivers, e-commerce workers, and livestream hosts, many of whom are young job seekers drawn by low barriers to entry but who face long hours, unstable incomes, and limited labor protections.

The category overlaps with China’s broader concept of flexible employment, which includes part-time workers and the self-employed. By 2025, officials estimated that more than 200 million people fell into that broader grouping, according to state media Xinhua News Agency.

Despite their size, these workers often lack access to social benefits and operate outside traditional labor structures, making them difficult to organize and, from the CCP’s perspective, difficult to control, according to U.S.-based China current affairs commentator Wang He.

Wang told The Epoch Times the new directive reflects mounting concern within the CCP about the political risks posed by this group. He said the policy is about extending state control.

“The CCP sees this [as a segment of the workforce] that cannot be allowed to drift beyond Party oversight,” he said. “The priority is political control.”

Wang said that in recent years, China has already expanded surveillance systems and grassroots governance networks. The latest policy signals an effort to integrate gig workers more fully into that framework, while reinforcing the Party’s authority over both society and the government.

“This group is young, mobile, and highly connected through the internet,” he said. “Their ability to voice grievances is stronger than many other groups.”

Signs of Discontent

Incidents over the past year have underscored those concerns.

In December, hundreds of delivery riders in Changsha, China, gathered to protest restrictions on access to a residential compound. Videos circulating online showed one participant dressed in a yellow cape, prompting a heavy police response.

More recently, from late March to early April, delivery workers in Chongqing, China, staged a multi-day strike, protesting falling pay rates and what they described as exploitative platform practices.

Such episodes, while localized, have raised alarms among some experts about the potential for broader unrest.

Xu Zhen, a senior professional in China’s capital markets, told The Epoch Times that disputes involving delivery workers have increasingly become flashpoints for social instability.

“The CCP is trying to consolidate various tools of social control, through Party branches in platform companies and even intervention in algorithms,” he said. “But it’s not clear these measures will work.”

The official guidelines also promised better services and legal protections for gig workers, including efforts to solve “practical difficulties” and “enhance ideological and political work.”

Critics say such language is often more rhetorical than substantive.

Wang said the promise to protect rights and provide services is largely a façade.

In practice, many gig workers struggle to access social insurance or other benefits, leaving them effectively marginalized within China’s labor system, according to Wang. Local governments, already under fiscal strain, may lack the resources—or the incentive—to expand support.

Expanding Party Reach

The policy also reflects a broader institutional shift.

In 2023, Beijing established a new Central Social Work Department tasked with strengthening social stability and expanding CCP influence across a wide range of sectors, from industry associations to private enterprises and grassroots organizations.

Earlier this month, the CCP also announced a campaign via Chinese state media People’s Daily targeting industry associations, again stressing the need for stronger party leadership.

Taken together, Wang said the measures point to a deepening emphasis on control amid economic uncertainty and rising social pressures, raising questions about whether tighter oversight will ensure stability or fuel further discontent.

Ning Haizhong and Luo Ya contributed to this report. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/30/2026 - 19:15

What Is the Trump Administration Really Trying To Do With The Latest Comey Indictment?

On Tuesday, a federal grand jury in the Eastern District of North Carolina handed down a two-count indictment against the former FBI director James Comey, charging him with threatening the life of President Donald Trump and transmitting that threat across state lines.

The basis for the charges: an Instagram post from May 2025 in which Comey shared a photo captioned "Cool shell formation on my beach walk." The shells on the sand spelled out "86 47." Each count carries a maximum of ten years in federal prison.

Comey deleted the post the same day it went up and issued an immediate clarification on social media. "I didn't realize some folks associate those numbers with violence," he wrote. "It never occurred to me, but I oppose violence of any kind, so I took the post down." He later told interviewers that he and his wife had simply spotted the formation during a stroll along a North Carolina beach and read it as a quirky, possibly restaurant-themed joke. Despite the dubious explanation, from the moment the post became controversial, legal analysts were skeptical that a case against him was possible.

There still appears to be bipartisan agreement on this point.

"It's a seashell case, nine, ten months old, and it will never go anywhere," Joe Scarborough said on MSNOW's Morning Joe. "It will have the opposite impact, and they'll get laughed out of court." 

Constitutional scholar Jonathan Turley, one of Trump's more reliable legal allies, agreed the case has little legal merit, despite the indictment.

"To convict Comey, the Justice Department will have to show that his adolescent picture was a 'true threat' under 18 U.S.C. § 871 and § 875(c). It is not." He went further, invoking the founding era: "This nation was founded in rage. The Boston Tea Party was rage. In forming this more perfect union, we created the world's greatest protection of free speech in history." Not exactly a ringing endorsement of the prosecution's theory.

First Amendment protections for political speech are remarkably broad. Under Brandenburg v. Ohio, the Supreme Court held that the government cannot punish inflammatory speech unless it is "directed to inciting or producing imminent lawless action and is likely to incite or produce such action" - a standard that has shielded provocateurs far more combustible than a retired FBI director posting a picture of seashells.

Former CNN analyst Chris Cillizza has his own theory about what is really behind this latest indictment. According to Cillizza, Trump is less concerned about whether Comey goes to jail than he is with just making Comey's life miserable.

“It's impossible to separate both of those indictments, the one in September and the one today, from Donald Trump's absolutely repeatedly expressed belief that the Department of Justice exists to target and punish his political enemies,” Cillizza mused. “Now, again, whether they would actually be guilty in a court of law, we shall see, but to punish these people. So we saw Comey indicted in September 2025, since dropped. We saw Letitia James, another big political enemy in Donald Trump's mind of his, also indicted, charges dropped. We've seen John Bolton, the, a major Trump critic, indicted, and now we see Comey indicted again.”

Donald Trump doesn't really care if Jim Comey goes to jail.

He just wants to make Comey's life miserable for as long as possible. pic.twitter.com/7wsHW32kGp

— Chris Cillizza (@ChrisCillizza) April 28, 2026

Cillizza gets some things wrong here. The Letitia James and the previous Comey case were tossed by a Clinton-appointed judge who claimed that the Justice Department illegally appointed the prosecutor who brought the charges at President Donald Trump's urging. They were not tossed on the merits.

Is Trump trying to make life difficult for his enemies? Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche pushed back on this suggestion on CBS Tuesday, insisting the administration had been investigating the matter for nearly a year and that a grand jury - not the White House - returned the indictment. "Of course not, absolutely, positively not," Blanche said when asked whether Trump directed the charges. The indictment itself argues that a "reasonable recipient who is familiar with the circumstances" would interpret the shell arrangement as a serious expression of an intent to do harm to President Trump. That framing will be tested the moment a federal judge reads the First Amendment.

There is a certain irony lodged in all of this. Trump spent years - genuinely - defending himself from what he called a weaponized justice system. The Russia investigation, the two bogus impeachments, the civil fraud trial in New York, the classified documents case, the January 6 prosecution: whatever one thinks of any individual charge, the cumulative weight of it was real and politically motivated in ways that even Trump's critics occasionally acknowledged. 

But out of those assaults, the president emerged convinced that the DOJ had become a political instrument and that the only way to respond was to go after those who abused their power in the first place.

The trouble is that a seashell photograph does not make for a compelling demonstration of that principle. There are documented, substantive cases to be made against Comey - his handling of the Hillary Clinton email investigation, his unauthorized leaking of memos to the press, and his role in initiating the surveillance of a sitting president's campaign. Those are the cases that would survive scrutiny, attract serious legal arguments, and perhaps hold up before a jury. Instead, the administration is going to federal court over a photo of seashells. 

Blanche said Tuesday, "If anybody in this country thinks … that it is okay for anybody to threaten the president of the United States … then we have a bigger problem than I even imagined." That may be true. But first you have to prove the threat was real - and that argument, and experts on both sides aren't seeing how this meets that standard.

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/30/2026 - 18:50

$25 Billion: Hegseth Accused Of Lowballing Cost Of Iran War

Pentagon chief Pete Hegseth has been in a very public spat and back-and-forth with Congressional Democrats over the Trump administration's $1.5 trillion Pentagon budget request, as well as over Iran war strategy and mounting costs.

Hegseth has turned to some classic wartime fearmongering: "What is it worth to ensure that Iran never gets a nuclear weapon?" - he posed to members of Congress when pressed in a hearing.

Hegseth called the "reckless, feckless, and defeatist words of congressional Democrats" the United States' greatest adversary. At a moment Operation Epic Fury is about to reach 60-days on Friday, he's still insisting that this is not a 'forever war' with an open-ended timetable.

One figure to come out of the latest Congressional hearings this week is a $25 billion total Iran war price tag thus far:

A Pentagon official told the House Armed Services Committee Wednesday that the war in Iran cost the United States $25 billion in the first two months.

Facing questions from ranking member Rep. Adam Smith (D-Wash.), Acting Defense Department comptroller Jules Hurst testified that most of the cost was “in munitions” plus “[operations and maintenance] and equipment replacement.”

Smith thanked the Pentagon official for offering the most specific cost estimate since its first week, when Hurst said the price tag was roughly $11 billion. “I’m glad you answered that question because we’ve been asking for a hell of a long time and no one has given us the number.”

via Reuters

However, the $25BN number immediately raised questions among skeptics, both within Congress and among media pundits, over whether this is a lowball number.

According to Responsible Statecraft: 

Rep. Ro Khanna pushed back on Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s assertion that the supplemental would only include $25 million for the mission in Iran specifically. “You’re saying $25 billion. If you come back and want to revise those numbers, because all the experts are disagreeing with you when it comes to today’s dollars in damage,” Khanna said.

Also Reuters has noted, "But it is unclear how the Pentagon arrived at the $25 billion amount given that a source had told Reuters last month that President Donald Trump's administration estimated that the first six days of the war had cost the United States at ​least $11.3 billion."

The case for skepticism is further fueled by the fact that the US military has lost so many expensive radar systems and aircraft throughout the war. 

"Iran’s missiles and drones, and one devastating instance of so-called friendly fire, have destroyed US military equipment worth between $2.3bn and $2.8bn, the Washington, DC-based Center for Strategic and International Studies has calculated," one report has underscored.

U.S. officials say the Iran war has likely cost closer to $50 billion—about double the $25 billion publicly cited by the Pentagon.

The lower figure excluded major expenses like destroyed equipment and damaged bases.

Much of the added cost comes from replacing lost munitions…

— Clash Report (@clashreport) April 30, 2026

But like with the Iraq and Afghan wars before, the true cost in both blood and treasure might not be known or fully assessed even for years to come. And that's assuming Trump's Iran quagmire gambit wraps up by then.

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/30/2026 - 18:20

AI Hype Meets Hardware Crunch As US Power Equipment Market Eyes $65 Billion Boom

Wood McKenzie has released a report that US spending on power generation gear for data centers alone could hit $65 billion by 2030, more than triple the $20 billion logged last year. Data center capacity is forecast to reach 110 GW by the end of the decade, with Bloomberg also commenting that “total US spending on power-plant equipment may climb to $215 billion."

The increased spending for the heavy electrical equipment market sounds great, but unfortunately, there's no equipment to buy domestically.

WoodMac Sounds Alarm On Transformer Shortage Amid AI Data Center Boom https://t.co/PAIIhAfS5f

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) August 16, 2025

Lead times for transformers, switchgear, and related gear stretch from 18-36 months and much of the shortfall is filled by imports from China, exposing the supply chain to the very geopolitical risks Washington claims to be racing against. The heavy reliance on imports for these grid-critical items led to the massive stack of Defense Production Act orders put out by the administration in April. 

Sightline Climate data highlighted earlier shows nearly half of the roughly 16 GW of US data center capacity slated to break ground in 2026 now faces delay or outright cancellation. Only about 5 GW sit under active construction.

The explosion in AI data center energy demand has been ongoing for years now. From PJM’s frantic scramble for 15 gigawatts of new supply to feed hyperscaler loads to the eye watering capacity auction price spikes that data centers helped trigger.

That squeeze is accelerating two parallel trends. 

First, hyperscalers are increasingly turning to behind the meter solutions. These include small nuclear reactors or gas fired generation directly on site. This approach allows them to bypass years-long waits for grid interconnection. Examples include Brookfield’s nuclear tied cloud venture to Nano Nuclear modular reactor studies and Talen Energy’s direct hookups.

Second, the cost pressure on households is drawing Washington’s attention. Grid upgrades required by the AI buildout have become the primary driver behind projected electricity rate increases. The Ratepayer Protection Pledge was signed back in March, which pushed hyperscalers to build, bring, or buy their own power and cover every dollar of the new transmission and distribution infrastructure. 

The White House has also framed rapid AI infrastructure buildout as a national security imperative, leading to a conflict of interests between the demand for new data centers without stressing the grid or consumers. AI has been widely labeled by the White House as necessary for the safety of the country, and is the new modern-day arms race. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/30/2026 - 17:55

Goldman Maps Retailer Exposure To Working-Poor Consumers As Gas Soars

With the nationwide average gasoline price accelerating above the politically sensitive $4-per-gallon level, and the consumer backdrop for low-income households darkening, Goldman analysts published a note on Wednesday identifying which big-box retailers have the greatest exposure to working-poor households.

"Our economists expect spending headwinds from higher inflation to weigh on growth for the rest of the year," Goldman Sachs Managing Director Kate McShane wrote in the note. She covered how Goldman analysts raised their Brent forecast for the fourth quarter of this year and the gloomy backdrop facing consumers.

She continued, "Moreover, higher headline inflation is set to erode household spending power, particularly among lower-income households that spend roughly four times as much on gasoline as a share of after-tax income compared to the top quintile."

She explained in more detail:

We expect the bottom-income quintile to lag the aggregate US household with +4.2% DPI growth in 2026 (vs. +4.7% aggregate) as our economists continue to expect tepid job growth. Cuts to Medicaid and SNAP benefits, and now greater exposure to the increase in gasoline prices are cost headwinds to this income cohort. Our pre-savings DCF expectations for the bottom quintile remain unchanged at +0.8% for 2026, well below the +3.7% aggregate growth rate.

Higher energy prices do drive a headwind to our Consumer Discretionary Cash Flow model, and accordingly we estimate that a $10/barrel change in fuel prices equates to a ~18bps impact to consumer spending power, all else equal. The magnitude of the recent, rapid change in fuel prices may drive a ~88bps headwind for consumer discretionary spending power in FY26, if higher fuel prices hold (~$120/barrel). Taking this one step further, we use the breakdown of consumer income cohorts to estimate the impact across the income-quintiles assessed in our 2026 Consumer Outlook, and find a ~225bps potential headwind from the YoY change in crude oil prices (~$120/barrel vs a simple average of ~$70 in 2025) on the lowest-income consumers, or ~135bps headwind at ~$100/barrel. As such, we see an over ~50bps headwind for consumer discretionary spending power for US households in aggregate in 2026, and ~135bps headwind for the bottom-quintile, assuming ~$100/bbl pricing holds. 

With that context in mind, McShane and her team analyzed the demographic exposure of major big-box retailers and found that Dollar General, Ollie's Bargain Outlet, and Dollar Tree are among the retailers most exposed to working-poor households.

Walmart, Five Below, Target, and BJ's Wholesale Club showed more modest exposure, according to the analyst.

"We also note that historically, during periods of elevated gas prices, DG has benefited from its close-proximity store model, which offered a convenient alternative for cost-conscious customers looking to avoid drives," McShane noted.

However, she said, "However, given the rise in digital retail, WMT's membership program Walmart+ may diminish this advantage as customers can now purchase same-day delivery." 

With the national average for gasoline above $4, we have already detailed emerging shifts in consumer behavior at gas stations and convenience stores. Actual demand destruction should set in at $ 5+ gas.

Read:

• Here's What Happened Inside Gas Stations When Gas Hit $4

• Here's What Happened Inside Convenience Stores When Gas Hit $4

Professional subscribers can read the full consumer note at our new Marketdesk.ai portal

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/30/2026 - 17:30

Apple Drops After Mixed Results: America, Europe Revenue Miss; Iphone Sales Disappoint, But China Surges Again

Ahead of today's AAPL earnings report, we've had a mixed picture from Mag 7 earnings so far: GOOGL soared to a record high, MSFT and AMZN both dropped (although they recovered much of their losses throughout the day) and META crashed, all on different reads of their capex. Which leaves AAPL to complete the picture of the big 5 megacaps (with NVDA set to report in a few weeks). As we previewed earlier, focus today will be on how soaring memory prices are impacting the company's profit margin, as well as hearing from new CEO John Ternus.

With that in mind, here is what the company just reported for its fiscal second quarter:

• EPS $2.01 vs. $1.65 y/y, beating estimates of $1.96
• Revenue $111.18 billion, +17% y/y, beating estimates of $109.66 billion 
  • Products revenue $80.21 billion, +17% y/y, beating estimates of $79.26 billion
  • IPhone revenue $56.99 billion, +22% y/y, barely beating estimates of $56.98 billion
  • Mac revenue $8.40 billion, +5.7% y/y, beating estimates of $8.13 billion
  • IPad revenue $6.91 billion, +8% y/y, beating estimates of $6.65 billion
  • Wearables, home and accessories $7.90 billion, +5% y/y, beating estimate $7.72 billion
• Services revenue $30.98 billion, +16% y/y, beating estimate of $30.37 billion

Broken down by product...

... we see that iPhones remain the juggernaut, and coming at $56.99 billion, they just barely beat estimates of $56.98 billion.

While Mac sales beat expectations modestly, pent up demand for the M5 MacBook Air, M5 Pro/Max MacBook Pro and of course the hot-selling MacBook Neo, should have resulted in a bigger beat. Perhaps it’s because the machines didn’t launch until late in the March quarter -- and the memory shortage. 

Looking across product lines, we saw annual growth in every segment, with a more than $10 billion year-over-year jump for the iPhone and a $4 billion increase on services. Growth in the other segments, like the Mac, iPad and wearables/home/accessories, was about $500 million give or take.

Taking a closer look at the Geographic breakdown, a few regions stood out, most notably America and Europe where revenues missed:

• Americas rev. $45.09 billion, +12% y/y, missing estimate $45.82 billion
• Europe revenue $28.06 billion, +15% y/y, missing estimate $29.08 billion
• Japan revenue $8.40 billion, +15% y/y, beating estimate $7.38 billion
• Rest of Asia Pacific revenue $9.14 billion, +25% y/y, beating estimate $8.76 billion

The revenue miss in the US and Europe will lilkely not be greeted well by the market, even if - for the second quarter in a row - it was offset by a solid beat in China:

• Greater China rev. $20.50 billion, +28% y/y, beating estimate $18.91 billion, even if the beat was smaller than last quarter's Chinese blowout.

Yes: it was all about China, because while sales in the US actually missed for the second quarter in a row, it was that country where no number is ever cooked - pardon the pun - where revenues (mostly iPhone revenues) grew an impressive 28% to $20.5bn, beating estimates of a $18.91bn number...

... yet which in context seems very, very fishy, and makes one wonder if Cook cooked numbers with Xi's help for the second quarter in a row.

Even Bloomberg notes that "China appears to be the key driver of Apple’s (limited) upside this quarter, with strength there likely underpinning the company’s broad-based outperformance."

Last but not least, and in fact first when it comes to profit margins, Services revenue rose 16%...

... to $30.98 billion, beating estimate of $30.37 billion

Going down the income statement: 

• Total operating expenses $18.90 billion, +24% y/y, above estimate $18.47 billion
• Research and development operating expenses $11.42 billion, +34% y/y, above estimate $11 billion
• SG&A operating expense $7.48 billion, +11% y/y, above estimate $7.46 billion
• Gross margin $54.78 billion, +22% y/y, above estimate $53.2 billion
• Cash and cash equivalents $45.57 billion, +62% y/y, below estimate $48.96 billion

Some more details from the press release: 

• IPhone hit a March quarter revenue record, fueled by “extraordinary demand” for the iPhone 17 lineup, Cook said
• New March quarter records for operating cash flow and EPS achieved, CFO Kevan Parekh said
• Generated Nearly $54 Billion in Operating Cash Flow
• Announces new $100 billion stock buyback

Commenting on the quarter, Apple outgoing CEO Tim Cook said that revenue was up primarily due to the “extraordinary” demand for the iPhone 17 line (even though revenue in America and Europe missed). He also cited the MacBook Neo, which he says is “captivating customers all around the world", to wit: 

“Apple is proud to report our best March quarter ever, with revenue of $111.2 billion and double-digit growth across every geographic segment. iPhone achieved a March quarter revenue record, fueled by such extraordinary demand for the iPhone 17 lineup. During the quarter, Services achieved yet another all-time record, and we were excited to introduce remarkable new products to our strongest lineup ever. That included the addition of the iPhone 17e and the M4-powered iPad Air, along with the launch of MacBook Neo, which is captivating customers all around the world.”

“Our strong business performance during the March quarter generated over $28 billion in operating cash flow and drove new March quarter records for both operating cash flow and EPS,” said Kevan Parekh, Apple’s CFO. “Continued strong customer demand for our products and services once again helped us achieve a new all-time high for our installed base of active devices across all major product categories and geographic segments.”

Apple did not give the spotlight to John Ternus, the incoming CEO, in this announcement. But we’re sure to hear something about the transition on the earnings call starting at 5 p.m. Eastern time. Still, his fingerprints are all over these results as the hardware chief the last half-decade.

Of note, AAPL - perhaps seeking to rub it into the noses of the cash flow negative hyperscalers who are now blowing all their capex on chips - authorized an additional $100 billion stock buyback.  The company also declared a cash dividend of $0.27 per share of the Company’s common stock, an increase of 4 percent. 

Last but not least, there has been no color on the memory situation and its impact on Apple in this release. We’ll hear more about that on the call. Apple said things would progressively get worse throughout the year. 

“This is a fairly boring report, w/Asia, Services, and margins all bright spots while the top line pressure in the Americas and Europe will be areas of focus (the lack of iPhone upside is a small negative too),” Adam Crisafulli of Vital Knowledge writes in a report. 

Apple stock is muted, down a little over 1% after hours, and a far cry from the big swing that options traders were pricing in.

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/30/2026 - 17:07

Rising Venezuelan Oil Exports Help Insulate The US From Energy Crisis

If the primary purpose behind the Trump Administration's snatch-and-grab operation against the illegitimate president of Venezuela, Nicolás Maduro, was not readily apparent in January, it should be crystal clear today.  Under Maduro, around 75% of the country's energy exports were going to China.  This year, the US will be receiving around 50% of the oil supply while China's share is reduced to 10%.   

The stunning shift in the direction of oil shipments is helping to insulate the US from shortages caused by the war in Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.  Likely, this was part of the plan from the very beginning.  However, the real benefits of the new relationship with Venezuela will not be readily apparent until the end of this year. 

Prices at the gas pump for Americans are high since the start of the war with an average of $4.30 per gallon, but decidedly tame compared to most of Europe.  The UK is currently at $8 per gallon and Germany at $9.30 per gallon.  A portion of these crushing prices is owed to Europe's abusive energy taxation model and carbon agenda, but another big factor is Europe's lack of strategic energy independence (except for Norway). 

The US has positioned to avoid a similar fate.  Oil export analysts and industry insiders suggest that without the regime change in Venezuela as well as a handful of other policy actions, gas prices in America would be much higher than they are now.  This does not protect the US from the interdependency of global markets (or market speculation), but in real terms, there is no threat of supply shortages. 

In 2024-2025, only 500,000 barrels of oil per day were shipped to the US from the Strait of Hormuz (around 7% of total exports).  This deficit is now being met by Venezuelan production and there's more on the way.   

Currently the only American oil company operating in Venezuela, Chevron is bringing in tankers filled with 400,000 barrels of oil to its Pascagoula refinery in Mississippi, which can process a maximum of 330,000 barrels a day of heavy crude oil.  Though Venezuela holds around 17% of global oil supply, the dilapidated infrastructure and communist corruption reduced their output to around 1% of global production.  This is about to change.

With investment, Chevron plans to increase its Venezuelan production by about 50% over the next couple of years.  Fortune notes that the best-case scenario for Venezuelan oil production is about 1.2 million barrels daily by the end of 2026, according to Francisco Monaldi, director of the Latin America Energy Program at Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy.

Oil service companies are preparing equipment and rigs for transport to Venezuela as the new government prepares a review of gas and oil contracts; a move which would have been thought impossible only a year ago.

Europe is, not surprisingly, trying to get in on the action.  Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez strongly condemned the US capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, labeling it a violation of international law.  However, Spain's Repsol is now seeking to increase production at Venezuela's ​Cardon IV gas field, taking advantage of the regime change.  Italy's Eni is also looking for new opportunities to invest and develop Venezuelan fields. 

The changes in Venezuela and the positive outlook for increased oil production do little to solve the immediate global supply crisis and price inflation in the making due to the Hormuz closure.  But, the new supply does help in preventing sharper spikes at the gas pump in the US. 

The capture of Maduro seems to have greater long term implications for energy markets rather than short term advantages.  Ultimately, it serves to further insulate the US from outside supply shocks over the next few years while eliminating a vital resource for China and the CCP.  

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/30/2026 - 16:40