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SBA Sends 562k Pandemic Loans To Bessent For Collections Totaling $22 Billion

The U.S. Small Business Administration (SBA) has announced a sweeping enforcement action targeting suspected pandemic-era loan fraud, referring more than 562,000 borrowers tied to $22.2 billion in delinquent loans to the U.S. Department of the Treasury for collection, according to the Small Business Association. The move marks the largest referral package in the agency’s history and signals a major escalation in federal efforts to recover funds distributed through COVID-19 relief programs.

The loans in question stem from the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) and COVID Economic Injury Disaster Loan (EIDL) initiatives, which were designed to support small businesses during the pandemic. According to the SBA, these loans had already been flagged for potential fraud in prior years but were not previously sent for collection or investigation.

Now, in coordination with the White House Task Force to Eliminate Fraud, the SBA has not only referred these debts to Treasury but also transmitted borrower information to the Department of Justice (DOJ) for potential legal action. Treasury’s Bureau of the Fiscal Service will begin collection efforts immediately.

"The SBA has transmitted the borrowers to the DOJ. And with today's referral, Treasury will begin collecting on the outstanding debt as part of the Trump Administration's commitment to recouping stolen pandemic-era funds on behalf of American taxpayers and small business owners," the agency wrote in a press release.

Loeffler stated, "From Day One, the Trump SBA has worked tirelessly to crack down on billions in pandemic-era fraud that the Biden Administration forgave or ignored."

"After extensive review, and with the strong support of the White House Task Force to Eliminate Fraud, we are taking our most decisive action yet to end a Biden-era scheme that protected over 560,000 borrowers tied to more than $22 billion in suspected pandemic-era fraud," she continued.

Loeffler's crusade to root out fraud, waste, and abuse was evident earlier this year when her team terminated hundreds of firms from the nation's largest DEI program, otherwise known as the 8(a) Business Development Program. These firms were terminated for failing to comply with the SBA's order to turn over three years' worth of financial documents for review. The companies were allegedly involved in DEI fraud as business pass-throughs.

Separately, the SBA has introduced new anti-fraud controls, including citizenship and birthdate verification, and launched a state-by-state probe into pandemic-era loan fraud. The agency has suspended nearly 112,000 borrowers in California and Minnesota suspected of obtaining fraudulent loans.

The Biden administration's failure to crack down on billions in pandemic-era fraud raises serious questions.

Tyler Durden Sun, 04/26/2026 - 21:45

The Reality Behind US-Iran Negotiations

Authored by Bryan Brulotte via The Epoch Times,

The current negotiations between the United States and Iran are being misread as a chaotic exercise in brinkmanship. They are not. They are the predictable endgame of a contest in which leverage has shifted decisively, and in which one side is now negotiating under constraints it can no longer escape.

Strip away the theatrics, and the picture becomes clear. Iran attempted to weaponize the Strait of Hormuz, calculating that disruption of global energy flows would fracture Western resolve and force Washington into concession. That calculation has failed. The United States has imposed sustained economic and maritime pressure, degrading Iran’s ability to monetize its oil and constraining its room for maneuver. Although Tehran retains the capacity to harass shipping, it no longer controls the strategic environment.

Much of the commentary has focused on President Donald Trump’s negotiating style; his deadlines, his threats, his reversals. This misses the point. Style is not strategy. Outcomes are. And the outcome, to date, is that Iran has been compelled back toward negotiations while publicly insisting it will not negotiate under pressure. That contradiction is not a sign of strength. It is evidence of it eroding.

Iran is not negotiating from parity. It is negotiating from a position of weakness. This is not to suggest the regime is on the verge of collapse. It is not, but it is under strain: economic, military, and internal. The fragmentation within Tehran’s leadership, between hardliners and more pragmatic elements, further complicates its ability to act coherently. That raises a critical question for any agreement: who, precisely, can commit the Iranian state, and who can enforce compliance?

Absent clarity on that point, any deal risks becoming performative. What is emerging, however, is a familiar and realistic framework. Constraints on uranium enrichment. Disposition of existing stockpiles. Monitoring by the International Atomic Energy Agency. Conditional sanctions relief. Limited provisions on missile activity and regional proxies. This will not be a transformative agreement. It will be a containment outcome, but that is not a weakness—it is the correct objective.

There is a persistent tendency in Western analysis to overstate what diplomacy can achieve with regimes that define themselves in opposition to the international order. Iran is not negotiating to become a liberal partner. It is negotiating to survive. The United States is not negotiating to normalize Iran. It is negotiating to constrain it. Those aims can intersect, but they will not converge.

The more serious issue lies elsewhere. The current negotiations are narrowly framed around nuclear thresholds, but the strategic risk extends beyond centrifuges. Iran has demonstrated that it can impose global costs through maritime disruption. Even limited interference in Hormuz reverberates through energy markets, supply chains, and inflation. A durable settlement must therefore address freedom of navigation as a core security issue, not a peripheral one.

This requires more than bilateral understandings. It requires a credible enforcement mechanism, ideally with an international dimension, that removes ambiguity about consequences. The absence of such a framework invites repetition of the current cycle: provocation, response, negotiation, relapse. That cycle is not stability. It is managed volatility.

It is also necessary to dispense with illusions about allied coherence. The Western response has been uneven. Some partners have equivocated. Others have postured. Few have demonstrated the operational seriousness required in a moment where global energy security and regional order are directly at stake. This is not a peripheral observation. It goes to the credibility of collective security arrangements in a more contested world. Against that backdrop, the United States has done what serious powers do. It has applied pressure, maintained optionality, and forced a narrowing of choices on its adversary. That does not guarantee success, but it is the precondition for it.

Negotiations conducted without leverage are exercises in self-deception. The path forward is therefore clear, if not easy. Iran can accept verifiable constraints on its nuclear program, curtail its destabilizing regional conduct, and regain access to the global economy under defined terms. Or it can continue to absorb economic attrition and strategic isolation under conditions it cannot indefinitely sustain. That is the choice.

Peace, if it comes, will not be the product of goodwill or rhetorical restraint. It will be the product of pressure, clarity, and enforcement. That is how durable agreements are made and how serious states behave. The outcome will not be determined at the table, but by the balance of power behind it.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times or ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Sun, 04/26/2026 - 21:20

Ilhan Omar Probe Expands Into Hubby's $30M Of Shady Biz Deals In Kenya, Dubai And Somalia

House Oversight Chairman James Comer is cranking the investigation into Rep. Ilhan Omar’s husband, Tim Mynett, into overdrive - demanding a full accounting of shadowy international business trips and deals that stretch from the Horn of Africa straight into Kenya, Somalia and the glittering skyscrapers of Dubai.

Omar has been making strange moves since February, after Comer fired off a no-holds-barred letter demanding every document and communication on Mynett’s travel and business dealings in Kenya, Somalia and the UAE. Since then, the story has exploded again with several stunning new twists: Omar quietly amended her 2024 financial disclosure in late March, slashing the reported $30 million fortune down to nearly zero; just nine days later, on April 4, the California winery central to those valuations was officially dissolved; forensic accountants have publicly torn into the revised numbers for major inconsistencies.

Ilhan Omar has to explain how a business who has no equipment, no location, no bottles, no stickers, appears to have no employee wages, no vineyard, no wine tasting room, no tours, no product, no shipping, no marketing, no lids, no boxes, no barrels, no license, no freight… pic.twitter.com/qKxYp3WhL7

— Angela Rose (@angelaroosee) April 25, 2026

The Feb. 5 letter ordered Mynett - president of Rose Lake Capital LLC and co-owner of the now-defunct eStCru LLC winery - to hand over every record related to travel or business solicitation in those three countries. The Feb. 19 deadline came and went with no public confirmation that Mynett ever complied.

Omar’s original 2024 disclosure, filed in May 2025, showed the two firms exploding in value from a combined $51,000 in 2023 to as much as $30 million the following year. Rose Lake Capital was listed between $5 million and $25 million; the winery sat between $1 million and $5 million. Then came the late-March amendment, in which Omar blamed an accountant’s error in netting out liabilities. The companies’ reported net value was wiped to zero and the couple’s total household assets were slashed to between $18,004 and $95,000.

Nine days after that amendment, California business records show eStCru LLC was officially terminated and dissolved on April 4. The winery had never owned a vineyard, tasting room or major production equipment. It produced only tiny batches at a shared custom-crush facility, had no active phone line and went dark on social media years ago. It was already dogged by investor lawsuits alleging fraud. One Washington, D.C., restaurateur, Naeem Mohd, claimed he invested roughly $300,000 after being promised a 200% return in 18 months - plus 10% monthly interest if late. A separate cannabis-related venture involving Mynett’s partner William Hailer ended in a roughly $1.2 million settlement after investors accused the duo of misappropriating funds.

According to Comer's letter, Rose Lake Capital had marketed itself as a globe-trotting player with "deep global networks" built from on-the-ground work in more than 80 countries. Its website - later scrubbed of officer and advisor names, including former diplomats - hyped sustainable investments and solar-panel projects across Africa. One partner reportedly received a $10,699 business-class ticket to Dubai for deal discussions. The firm once claimed to manage $60 billion in assets - an eye-popping figure for a company that, according to earlier disclosures, had less than $1,000 in the bank in 2023.

Because of this, "unknown individuals may be investing to gain influence" with Omar. The timing has fueled even more suspicion: the reported wealth spike overlapped with the massive social-services fraud scandals ripping through Minnesota’s Somali-American community - the heart of Omar’s district - where authorities allege billions in taxpayer dollars were looted through fake daycare and nutrition programs.

Mynett’s past adds another layer. Before launching these ventures, he and partner Hailer ran E Street Group, a political consulting firm that pulled in nearly $3 million from Omar’s own congressional campaigns. Former associates described the pair as well-connected Democratic insiders.

Omar’s office has dismissed the entire inquiry as a "political stunt" and "smear campaign." Mynett has not responded publicly to the document demands or the sudden shutdown of the winery.

President Donald Trump has repeatedly called for Omar to face criminal charges, linking her to what he claims is up to $2.5 trillion in Minnesota welfare fraud - a figure he has offered without direct evidence tying her personally to the full scale of the scandal.

As of April 26, 2026, the $30 million paper fortune has evaporated on paper, the vineyard is legally gone, and the international paper trail now leads from a quiet Sonoma wine label straight into East Africa and Dubai. The House Ethics Committee has the ball, Comer shows no signs of letting go, and citizen sleuths continue digging through the disclosures.

Whether this was a spectacular (if suspiciously timed) business success, a simple accounting blunder, or something far more troubling is the question lawmakers - and the public - now demand answered. The money trail is global. The clock is ticking. And the spotlight is burning brighter than ever.

* * * New ranch | Wagyu | Hotdogs (40) 

Tyler Durden Sun, 04/26/2026 - 20:55

Maine Governor Vetos Data Center Moratorium, Citing Job Creation And Economic Growth

Maine Governor Janet Mills has vetoed a bill that would have temporarily limited the development of large data centers across Maine, despite expressing support for a broader pause on such projects, according to Maine's website.

The governor said she would have approved the legislation if it had included an exemption for a $550 million data center redevelopment already underway at the former Androscoggin Mill in Jay, a project backed by local officials and seen as critical to economic recovery in the region.

Mills emphasized that while a moratorium makes sense due to concerns about environmental impact and rising electricity costs seen in other states, the bill in its final form failed to account for the Jay project’s potential benefits. The redevelopment is expected to bring hundreds of construction jobs, create at least 100 permanent positions, and restore a major portion of the town’s lost tax base following the mill’s closure in 2023.

The site says that Mills plans to move forward with an executive order to study the impact of large-scale data centers in Maine. She also signed separate legislation barring such projects from receiving state business tax incentives, signaling a cautious but measured approach to managing the industry’s growth.

“A moratorium is appropriate given the impacts of massive data centers in other states on the environment and on electricity rates. But the final version of this bill fails to allow for a specific project in the Town of Jay that enjoys strong local support from its host community and region,” she wrote. 

“The 2023 closure of the Androscoggin Mill dealt a devastating blow to the Town of Jay and its surrounding area. As a long-time resident of Franklin County, I know well how critical the mill was to generations of working families, and how important it is – and how challenging it has been – to promote reinvestment and job-creation at the former mill which is a brownfield site.  After prior redevelopment efforts failed, the Town of Jay worked for two years on a $550 million data center redevelopment project to finally bring jobs and investment back to the mill site.”

“I believe it necessary and important to examine and plan for the potential impacts of large-scale data centers in Maine, as the use of artificial intelligence becomes more widespread. Given the serious conversations about data centers here and around the country, I believe this work should commence without delay,” she concluded.

Meanwhile we wrote last week that the outlook for the US AI revolution looks increasingly more dim. 

That's because, as Canaccord Genuity analyst George Gianarikas writes, "the American data center boom is hitting a formidable wall of logistical friction." He is referring to the latest outlook by Sightline Climate, which is also reinforced by recent articles from Bloomberg and others, and reveals a sobering reality for 2026: nearly half of the nation's planned 16-gigawatt capacity faces cancellation or delay, with only 5 gigawatts currently under construction.

This inertia stems from a volatile mix of local permitting hurdles, community resistance, and a desperate reliance on overextended global supply chains for critical components like transformers and helium.

That's right: half. Despite $700BN+ of expected 2026 hyperscaler capex, nearly half of the data centers scheduled to begin operations in the US in 2026 "will either face delays or outright cancellations."

The data, which comes from Sightline Climate's 2026 Data Center Outlook,  suggests that just 30% - 50% of the ~16 GW of planned US capacity for the year will face risks, with only ~5 GW currently under construction!

* * * Know what's not a massive bitch? 

This 2.5lb Tomahawk Steak

Tyler Durden Sun, 04/26/2026 - 20:05

Bessent Defends US Dollar Swap Lines As UAE Considers Formal Funding Request

Several Gulf countries have discussed receiving dollar swap lines from the US, the WSJ reported last week. In the near term, there is an economic drag if volumes of oil and gas sales have fallen by more than the price effect can offset, or where tourist and business travel has dried up. The effect is similar to that of the pandemic: slowing growth and fiscal revenues, and accelerated demand for fiscal spending.

As the WSJ reported, UAE. Central Bank Gov. Khaled Mohamed Balama had raised the idea of a currency-swap line with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Treasury and Federal Reserve officials in meetings in Washington. The Emiratis emphasized that they had so far avoided the worst economic effects of the conflict but might still need a financial lifeline.

The talks highlighted the U.A.E.’s concern that the war could inflict major damage on its economy and its position as a global financial hub, depleting its foreign reserves and scaring away investors who once saw it as a stable and secure place for their money. The conflict has damaged Emirati oil-and-gas infrastructure and shut off their ability to sell oil using tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz, depriving it of a key source of dollar revenues. Meanwhile tourism, another key source of hard currency, has also been throttled as a result of regional instability. 

Emirati officials haven’t made a formal request for a swap line, which would give the UAE. central bank inexpensive access to dollars to support its currency or shore up its foreign reserves in case of a liquidity crisis. A swap line would also avoid forcing a liquidation of dollar-denominated assets. The Emirati officials argued that it was President Trump’s decision to attack Iran that entangled their country in a destructive conflict whose effects may not be over; they added that if the U.A.E. runs short of dollars, it may be forced to use Chinese yuan or other countries’ currencies for oil sales and other transactions, strongly hinting that UAE may be forced to seek financial backing from Trump's arch-nemesis.

In that scenario is an implicit threat to the U.S. dollar, which reigns supreme among global currencies partially because of its near-exclusive use in oil transactions.

Gulf central banks hold dollar reserves in liquid assets like Treasury bonds and bills. However, using these reserves for fiscal support would be unwise according to UBS economist Paul Donovan who noted that "it would rapidly call into question the stability of the region’s currency pegs to the US dollar."

The Emirati dirham is pegged to the dollar and backed by foreign-currency reserves of $270 billion, but the war has put it under pressures from capital-flight risks, stock-market volatility and other disruptions, analysts said. 

The credit-rating firm S&P Global said in a March 6 report that the U.A.E.’s “substantial fiscal, economic, external, and policy flexibility will act as an effective buffer” against the war’s economic effects. But it warned that “the potential for prolonged disruption” to its oil exports and damage to infrastructure “add clear risk to our expectations.”

The Fed used swap lines heavily used during the 2008 financial crisis, buying the currency of other borrowing central banks with dollars and later selling it back. It also used swap lines to support foreign central banks after the start of the Covid-19 pandemic. Countries that don’t have a swap line with the Fed can still exchange their holdings of Treasury bonds for dollars through a program administered by the New York Fed.

Gulf sovereign wealth funds are different. The region’s wealth fund holdings (in excess of USD 5 trillion) are not for currency stability, but to provide long-term income streams. Gulf sovereign wealth fund holdings skew toward US dollar-denominated assets, but they are generally held in less liquid assets.

Using these assets to meet short term fiscal needs risks disrupting US markets. That might risk a vicious downwards spiral (like the UK’s Truss debacle). Swap arrangements give Gulf economies the cash without creating disorderly markets. However, in the longer term, the need to reconstruct and rearm means that asset sales may be considered, UBS warned.

On Friday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent defended the possibility of the US participating in currency swaps with allies in the Persian Gulf and Asia who are seeking financial backstops due to the Iran war.

Discussions with those countries about US dollar swap lines “are part of ongoing, routine conversations that @USTreasury has been having with our partners over a number of years,” Bessent said in an X post, in which he offered a full-throated defense of additional swap lines.

Discussions with countries, including our Gulf and Asian allies, about U.S. dollar swap lines are part of ongoing, routine conversations that @USTreasury has been having with our partners over a number of years. They are a testament to the U.S. dollar’s primacy and the strength…

— Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent (@SecScottBessent) April 24, 2026

“They are a testament to the U.S. dollar’s primacy and the strength of America’s economic shield,” he said of the potential swaps adding that dollar dominance and reserve currency status are strengthened by constant long-term initiatives, including countering the growth of problematic, alternative payment systems,” he added. “Under @POTUS, this is American Economic Leadership at work.”

The assertion of swap lines’ benefits and commonness comes as the Trump administration considers offering the financial lifeline to the United Arab Emirates, CNBC reported Tuesday.

It also comes two days after Bessent said that “many” allies in the Persian Gulf are seeking the same backstop as the ongoing war wreaks havoc on the oil-rich nations’ economies.

A potential swap line runs the risk of being seen as an unnecessary bailout of a foreign country — especially if it’s a rich one like the UAE, which has one of the world’s highest per capita incomes.

The Treasury can provide its own version of swaps using its Exchange Stabilization Fund (ESF), though traditional swaps are most often offered by the Federal Reserve. The arrangements can pose political risks for President Donald Trump, whose approval ratings on the economy have sunk as war-induced supply shocks rapidly raise prices for gasoline and other products, exacerbating Americans’ existing inflation woes. 

Trump, asked on CNBC’s “Squawk Box” Tuesday about a possible UAE swap line, appeared to say he is in favor of it.

“If they had a problem ... I would be there for them,” Trump said.

Gulf countries have also raised billions of dollars in debt from investors - primarily PIMCO - in recent weeks via private deals, highlighting their push to have cash on hand as they face what the International Energy Agency has called “the most severe oil-supply shock in history.”

Bahrain also set up a roughly $5 billion swap line with the UAE. earlier this month to help improve financial stability, the countries’ central banks said.

Finance ministers and central bankers in Washington for the IMF and World Bank meetings said they didn’t expect an easy or swift recovery for the region.

“The basic logistics of scheduling tankers and bringing them back after the chaos we have seen, that will take possibly to the end of June,” said Mohammed Al-Jadaan, Saudi Arabia’s finance minister, during a panel on Thursday. “Anyone who’s counting for a quick recovery, even if there is a total end of hostilities, will need to recalculate that.”

Tyler Durden Sun, 04/26/2026 - 19:38

"The National Security Premium": US Plan To Counter China In Critical Miners Could Drive Up Global Prices

The US is pressing its allies to rethink how they source essential minerals, urging them to accept higher prices if it means reducing reliance on China, which currently dominates much of the global supply, according to a new report from Financial Times.

According to US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, countries working with Washington should expect to pay extra for materials obtained through a proposed network of trusted partners. He framed this added cost as a necessary trade-off to strengthen supply chain security.

The idea under discussion involves setting minimum price levels for critical minerals among participating nations. The goal is to make mining and processing outside China financially viable, while potentially using tariffs or other restrictions to block cheaper imports from non-participants.

“There is a premium we pay, and I call it the national security premium, and we will all pay a national security premium to have a secure supply chain,” Greer said.

Not everyone is convinced. Some US partners, speaking privately, worry that such a system could drive up expenses for key industries and provoke a response from China. Businesses in sectors like defense, car manufacturing, and renewable energy could be particularly affected if input costs rise.

The debate reflects a broader challenge: breaking China’s grip on these resources is difficult after years of heavy investment that gave it a leading position. At the same time, many developed economies are already dealing with inflation and high energy prices, adding to the sensitivity around any policy that could increase costs further.

The FT report says that Greer has pushed back on concerns about affordability, arguing that prioritizing low prices in the past is exactly what left Western countries dependent on Chinese supplies. In his view, paying more now is the price of building a more secure and resilient system.

Meanwhile, governments are wary of possible retaliation. China has previously used its control over mineral exports as leverage, and any coordinated effort to sideline its role could lead to countermeasures.

Despite these tensions, there are signs of cooperation. Earlier this year, partners including the EU and Japan expressed interest in working together on a joint framework for critical minerals. Ideas being explored include shared pricing arrangements, financial support to bridge cost gaps, and agreements to buy from one another rather than external suppliers.

Tyler Durden Sun, 04/26/2026 - 19:15

War Schmwar

By Peter Tchir of Academy Securities

Markets have been almost totally dismissive of the conflict in Iran. Frankly, the number of countries, including oil-rich nations, that had been firing at each other seemed quite high, yet most markets shrugged it off. While the Strait remained closed, or blockaded, or blocked, the market remained in Open Sesame mode this week.

Moonshot

Artemis II wasn’t the only “moonshot” we’ve seen.

The SOX index has jumped almost 50% since March 30th. That would be incredible, but 18 straight days of gains is wildly impressive! (Even the NY Mets could only do the same thing 12 days in a row, but in the other direction).

The lower chart is RSI (Relative Strength Indicator and one of my favorite technicals to look at). This index went from the cusp of oversold, to heavily oversold, to overbought territory in 2 weeks and gets “more” overbought by the day. Every strong chip earnings report not only “skyrockets” that stock, but it also pulls up the entire sector.

The AI and Data Center Buildout narrative remains completely intact even as “war” rages. If anything, the need for domestic AI and Data Centers is growing as physical security concerns continue in the Middle East.

Not Sure if “Laggards” Is the “Right” Word, But…

Quantum computing has bounced, but unlike the semis, it is not even at the highs of the year, let alone the highs from last year!

If you own a “quantum” ETF, you likely have seen far better returns in the past few weeks than this chart would indicate. But that is because the ETFs own a lot of semiconductors. QTUM (Defiance Quantum ETF), the largest “quantum” ETF at $4.1 billion, has TER as its largest holding. INTC, STM, and MU were the next largest holdings. So, I tried to identify 4 tickers from WQTM that seemed to be more “pure play” quantum.

We have yet to see a real breakout in Uranium and Rare Earths stocks.

REMX (for Rare Earths and Critical Minerals) and URA have bounced, but Uranium is still lower than it was before the war. If you look at the “small reactors” which were all the rage, their chart looks a lot more like the chart from the quantum stocks. Even in rare earths, names like MP, which the U.S. government invested in, is more than 35% lower than its high last October.

A warning sign? A rational reassessment? The next asset classes to “catch a bid”?

Bitcoin, where the news has generally been good, is still hanging around the $76k to $78k range. It has “recovered” the 100-day moving average, but has not rushed to “close the gap” with the 50-DMA. I’m watching this closely as another “next leg” of this rally. I cannot help but wonder if some of the “ceiling” on Bitcoin is due to concern that there may be some level of selling pressure from a country like Iran. Iran may not have Bitcoin, but given the fact that they allegedly asked for “safe passage” payments in crypto, it seems plausible that they do. Given the blockade and seizure of vessels, it would create pressure to sell (or transfer it to someone else who sells it) to fund their economy (if they have any).

I’m leaning towards a “breakout” as people look for anything remotely adjacent to new tech/chips that isn’t at its highs.

Markets Ignoring Stubborn Oil Prices Out the Curve

While we still see issues in LNG, Diesel, and Jet Fuel (also in the distillates and chemical industry), let’s go back to the big 2 – WTI and Brent.

WTI spiked to $120 March 9th and again got to almost $120 on April 7th. It is “comfortably” lower now, at $95. Brent spiked to $120 three times during the conflict and is “only” at $106. A bit less comforting than WTI.

But the story, as several people in the admin have pointed to, is what is happening to oil “out the curve.” When the admin was pointing this out, there was a pretty quick drop from “elevated” front end contracts as you moved out the curve. Now we are sitting at just under $80 for the November contract. That is closer to the highs of this conflict. The November contracts are now near their highs (since that “crazy” first weekend). It is difficult to be encouraged by this.

The further out the curve you go, the more it includes people “in the know” and less about speculation. And this pricing is consistent with the warnings that we keep hearing from participants in the physical products. I suspect that even in the event of a good deal with Iran, pricing out the curve doesn’t back down much from here.

It is possible that equities are fully pricing this in and don’t care. That the AI and Data Center story and current round of earnings are enough to cover this possibility.

I cannot help but wonder if we are being a bit complacent, especially since AFFORDABILITY has been an issue and has not dissipated in any way, shape, or form (at least not for the “average” American).

Maybe I’m looking too hard for something that might derail the rally (as opposed to the prior section when we were looking for what might benefit from the next wave), but I do have some concerns that people “in the know,” already “know” oil is going to remain uncomfortably high (for consumers) even if a good deal is reached.

Bottom Line

On rates, 4.25% is still the “midpoint” of our range. I think you buy 10s above 4.4% and sell if we get to 4.1%. Maybe a touch too wide of a range, but there is a lot of noise out there.

On credit, IG remains boring. HY has some interesting risks, so maybe a touch more cautious there, while I cannot help but want to nibble at the private credit/BDC space. IGV (software ETF) hung in last week, despite some headlines from the private credit side that could have hurt, and despite the massive rally in AI/Data Centers – which until recently didn’t seem good for software. IGV, BDCs, and Private Credit seem to be various forms of the same trade, and it is difficult not to scale in a little here, once again under the theory that they are under-owned and at some point capital will come looking for stocks with a story that is well off its highs.

On equity. European ProSec! Is Europe finally getting the joke? They are lending money to Ukraine to buy weapons. It has been reported that Sweden has been interdicting “ghost” ships to stop Russian oil sales. Many of the European stocks in the ProSec™ theme have been outperforming similar stocks in the U.S. Yes, Europe is more exposed to oil prices than we are, but that is precisely why you want to buy into their energy industry – the realization that they have to do something to reduce their exposure to regions outside of their control and harness their own resources!

I have to admit, I’m not even checking (or at least barely checking) Twitter for Iran headlines. Markets are closed, so nothing to say about them now, and by Sunday night, the story may have changed anyway, which in turn might look completely different by Monday morning. As a strategist, I think I’m either in the depression or acceptance phase of grief as it relates to trying to manage risk around the conflict.

Good luck and Academy will continue to try to bring our unique resources to bear on the geopolitical situation to help you navigate it as smoothly as possible!

Tyler Durden Sun, 04/26/2026 - 18:40

Ford Denies Talks With Geely About Bringing Chinese Car Tech To U.S.

On Friday, a report crossed the wire that Ford and Geely had been in discussions about collaborating more closely, including whether their developing European partnership could expand into the U.S. market, according to the Wall Street Journal. 

Ford denied the claims, which stated that one idea involved Ford using Geely’s vehicle technology domestically. The talks had reportedly cooled, with both sides shifting attention back to Europe, where they are considering sharing production capacity and technical resources.

Geely is motivated to enter the U.S., a lucrative but tightly restricted market for Chinese automakers. High tariffs, bans on Chinese-connected vehicle software, and political resistance from U.S. industry and lawmakers all make entry difficult.

Ford itself has signaled caution, with leadership stressing the importance of protecting American jobs and competitiveness. A company spokesman reinforced that stance, saying, “Our commitment to a level playing field and safeguarding our home market remains absolute.”

The WSJ wrote on Friday that Geely, for its part, has kept its response general, noting, “We always keep an open mind when it comes to exploring cooperative opportunities,” while avoiding specifics about any potential deal.

Earlier discussions went further than simple cooperation, including the possibility of Ford building future models on a Geely-developed platform and leveraging its engineering to speed up EV development. Geely also explored using Ford’s existing manufacturing footprint—particularly in Europe—to bypass trade barriers and scale production more efficiently. While those ideas remain on the table in some form, they highlight how both companies see strategic value in collaboration, even as geopolitical tensions limit how far that cooperation can extend.

Later in the day on Friday after the report, Ford "denied a news report that it has held talks with Geely Automobile Holdings Ltd. about bringing Chinese car technology to the US market", claiming "no such talks" happened. 

The broader context is intensifying global competition: Chinese automakers are gaining ground internationally with cheaper, tech-focused vehicles, putting pressure on Western companies. Even so, any attempt to formalize a U.S. partnership would face significant political scrutiny, making overseas collaboration a more practical path for now.

Tyler Durden Sun, 04/26/2026 - 18:23

Will the Left Make The WHCA Dinner Shooter A Hero?

There was a lot of confusion in the initial hours after the shooting at the White House Correspondents Association Dinner at the Washington Hilton on Saturday night. But it soon became clear that the suspect, Cole Allen, a 31-year-old teacher from Torrance, California, had rabid anti-Trump views and was there to target Trump administration officials. 

While the usual suspects on the left are issuing standard statements condemning violence, there’s a real concern that the left will lionize Allen. And even former Obama official and current CNN pundit Van Jones is concerned about it.

 "I'm starting to worry about something,” Jones said. “Which is that the shooter survived, which means on Monday he's going to court, which means there is a danger that people try to make him some sort of hero."

He wasn't being paranoid. He was being prescient. And he didn't stop there.

"You watch what happened with Luigi, who shot a CEO to death, and somehow became a hero," Jones continued. " So, they said tonight you saw the worst of America. You saw the best of America. Tonight, you definitely saw the best of America. I hope on Monday we don’t see the worst again. I just want to say very clearly — this kind of despicable behavior has no place in America. It has no place on the right. It has no place on the left.”

He added, “This kind of behavior has no place in America. And it is wrong. Violence is not the way to resolve any grievances. And this cheerleader culture for violence, for people who think that the answer to our problems is to go shooting billionaires or going to synagogues or all these different things, has to be called out immediately. The minute it starts, every single person with the platform must denounce it, or we’re going to see this again.”

CNN Van Jones actually gets things right regarding the WHCD shooter. pic.twitter.com/wySCKHz5hv

— Scott Adams (@scottadamsshow) April 26, 2026

When Luigi Mangione was arrested in December 2024 for the killing of UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson, the radical left treated him like a celebrity. Within days of the shooting, social media flooded with memes casting Mangione as a modern-day vigilante, a working-class avenger striking back against the healthcare system. 

Online stores moved T-shirts. A fundraiser for his legal defense pulled in thousands. Even the Saturday Night Live audience cheered when Mangione’s name was mentioned during a Weekend Update segment.

Mainstream journalists didn't exactly pump the brakes either. CNN's Kaitlan Collins, a White House correspondent no less, casually directed her audience to Mangione's legal defense website.

Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche said Sunday that "preliminary" findings suggest Trump and members of his administration were the likely targets. Allen had been staying at the hotel as a registered guest. Investigators secured his room and began reviewing what CBS News and others described as his manifesto.

According to the New York Post, Allen’s manifesto ran over a thousand words, laying out a delusional justification for the shooting. In it, he described himself as a “Friendly Federal Assassin,” outlined “rules of engagement,” and claimed it was his moral duty to target officials tied to the Trump administration. 

Democrats moved quickly to condemn the shooting on Saturday. The statements were prompt and broadly worded. But the uncomfortable overlap between the suspect's stated grievances and the party’s rhetoric about Trump is hard to ignore, making Van Jones’s concerns extremely valid. 

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Tyler Durden Sun, 04/26/2026 - 16:55

'Gender Identity' Requirements Will Be Discarded In Housing Programs: HUD

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) Secretary Scott Turner announced a new proposed rule on Thursday that seeks to end the use of “gender identity” across all departmental programs, which is intended to “restore biological reality and protect women.”

Housing and Urban Development Secretary Scott Turner walks towards the West Wing following a TV interview at the White House on Feb. 19, 2025. Manuel Balce Ceneta/AP Photo

“Under the proposed guidance, HUD would remove radical definitions of gender identity, sexual orientation, and gender, replacing them with sex across nearly 50 regulations,” HUD said in an April 23 statement.

The department’s Equal Access Rule will be modified to replace the ban on discrimination on the basis of “gender identity” across all Community Planning and Development programs.

HUD intends to define common terms such as mother, father, woman, man, girl, and boy, in a way that is consistent with a person’s sex across the department’s regulations.

“God created two sexes: male and female. The Left’s war on biological reality through radical gender ideology will no longer take precedence over the safety and security of America’s most vulnerable women,” Turner said.

The 2012 Equal Access Rule, titled Equal Access to Housing in HUD Programs Regardless of Sexual Orientation or Gender Identity, sought to ensure that HUD’s housing programs would be made available to all individuals and families regardless of their gender identity, sexual orientation, or marital status.

At the time, the rule did not address how transgender identifying and “gender non-conforming” individuals should be accommodated in certain temporary and emergency shelters, and other facilities used for this purpose. In 2016, another final rule was issued on this regulation addressing the matter.

The recent proposal builds on an order issued by the HUD Secretary in February last year that required a stoppage of any pending or future enforcement of the Equal Access Rule.

In a Feb. 13, 2025, statement, Turner said that the department’s actions were in line with an executive order signed by President Donald Trump on his first day in office.

The Jan. 20, 2025, executive order, Defending Women From Gender Ideology Extremism and Restoring Biological Truth to the Federal Government, criticized what it described as denying the biological reality of sex and the increasing use of legal and socially coercive measures to allow men to self-identify as women.

This enabled such men to “gain access to intimate single-sex spaces and activities designed for women, from women’s domestic abuse shelters to women’s workplace showers,” Trump wrote in the order.

“This is wrong. Efforts to eradicate the biological reality of sex fundamentally attack women by depriving them of their dignity, safety, and well-being,” the president wrote.

The order defined the sex of a person as the individual’s biological classification as either male or female, dismissing the interchanging of the word “sex” with “gender identity.” It asked agencies to remove all regulations and policies that “promote or otherwise inculcate gender ideology.”

The National Alliance to End Homelessness has criticized HUD’s move to modify enforcement of the Equal Access Rule.

In a February 2025 post, the alliance said that communities cannot afford to create more barriers to shelter and housing programs at a time when “unsheltered homelessness is soaring and when gender-expansive people are experiencing shocking disparities in unsheltered homelessness.”

“The Alliance strongly opposes the directive from Secretary Turner to halt any pending or future enforcement actions of the Equal Access Rule and any future steps to weaken or repeal this lifesaving rule,” the post said.

In its February 2025 statement, HUD said that the 2016 rule allowed men to take advantage of department programs directed at women.

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Tyler Durden Sun, 04/26/2026 - 16:20

Is Anthropic Coming For eBay?

Late Friday afternoon, as most people were checking out for the weekend after nearly two months of U.S.-Iran war fatigue, Anthropic quietly released a note titled "Project Deal." The company built a closed marketplace where AI agents negotiated prices, struck deals, and completed real transactions with money changing hands.

"We created a marketplace for employees in our San Francisco office, with one big twist. We tasked Claude with buying, selling and negotiating on our colleagues' behalf," Anthropic wrote on X.

New Anthropic research: Project Deal.

We created a marketplace for employees in our San Francisco office, with one big twist. We tasked Claude with buying, selling and negotiating on our colleagues’ behalf. pic.twitter.com/H2f6cLDlAW

— Anthropic (@AnthropicAI) April 24, 2026

The results: Claude agents made 186 deals across more than 500 listed items on a Slack-based marketplace, totaling just over $4,000 in transaction value.

But the quality of the model mattered a lot. In the simulated runs where Opus and Haiku models negotiated with one-another, the Opus models got substantially better deals.

Interestingly, though, participants in our survey didn’t pick up on this disparity. pic.twitter.com/X26hhIieJN

— Anthropic (@AnthropicAI) April 24, 2026

Anthropic's point is that AI-to-AI commerce offers an early look at the coming agentic economy, where AI bots negotiate with other bots in a marketplace to strike the best deal.

Claude interviewed 69 of our colleagues about what they wanted to buy and sell. Each Claude asked for any custom instructions, then went off to haggle.

We ran 4 markets in parallel, to find out what would happen if we varied the models doing the negotiating. pic.twitter.com/FJdD6S2TSd

— Anthropic (@AnthropicAI) April 24, 2026

AI disruption has already hammered software stocks. Now, as Polymarket Money pointed out, "eBay's leadership team is seeing this," referring to Project Deal.

eBay's leadership team seeing this: pic.twitter.com/Hg0KMdhC5z

— Polymarket Money (@PolymarketMoney) April 24, 2026

Shortly after Project Deal's release, eBay shares fell about 4.5% by Friday's close in New York.

Does this mean Anthropic is now coming for eBay?

Tyler Durden Sun, 04/26/2026 - 15:45

ICE Nabs Illegal Alien Pedophile In Virginia; Sanctuary Officials Ignored Detainer

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

ICE has arrested an illegal alien child sex predator in Abigail Spanberger’s Virginia. Authorities there tried to protect him by declining an ICE detainer last year and releasing him back into the community.

Of course they did.

The suspect, Roni Mendez-Escobar, a Guatemalan national, faced charges including multiple felony counts of possession of obscene material and child pornography with intent to distribute.

🚨 HOLY CRAP! ICE has just arrested an illegal alien CHILD S*X PREDATOR in Abigail Spanberger's Virginia

She tried to PROTECT him.

She ran as a "moderate." In practice, she's letting kids get abused by illegals!

FOX: "Virginia authorities declined an ICE detainer for him last… pic.twitter.com/54Zvfc9PJq

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) April 24, 2026

Fairfax County’s refusal to cooperate with federal immigration enforcement allowed him to remain free despite the detainer – exactly the outcome sanctuary policies are designed to produce.

This isn’t an isolated failure. It’s the predictable result of Virginia Democrats turning the state into a magnet for criminal illegal aliens while American families bear the cost. Spanberger ran as a “moderate,” yet her administration’s moves to limit cooperation with ICE have repeatedly put Virginia children and residents at risk.

Just weeks ago, ICE urged Spanberger not to release another criminal illegal alien from Guatemala, Misael Lopez Gomez, who allegedly bludgeoned his own three-month-old daughter to death with blunt force trauma in Fairfax.

⚖️🚨NIGHTMARE IN VIRGINIA

A 3 month-old girl is dead.

GOP lawmakers and the Department of Homeland Security is blaming "lax" Democrat ‘Sanctuary’ policies after two illegal immigrants were charged in two separate, gruesome slayings.

Gustamalan national Misael Lopez Gomez, is… https://t.co/iEUbISHkyt pic.twitter.com/quFI5bTlip

— Tosca Austen (@ToscaAusten) April 8, 2026

As DHS stated: “This cold-blooded killer murdered his own three-month-old daughter. We are calling on Governor Spanberger to commit to not releasing this barbaric animal from jail into Virginia communities.”

The media is RUNNING COVER for an illegal alien MURDERER.

Misael Lopez Gomez is NOT a “Virginia dad.” He is an illegal alien from Guatemala and a cold-blooded killer accused of murdering his own three-month-old daughter. pic.twitter.com/Ex5HuolKtl

— Homeland Security (@DHSgov) April 2, 2026

That horror came one day after another Guatemalan illegal alien, Anibal Armando Chavarria Muy, was arrested for fatally stabbing a man to death with a machete in Fairfax County.

In March, an 18-year-old illegal migrant from El Salvador, Israel Flores Ortiz – released into the U.S. under Biden policies – posed as an 11th grader at Fairfax High School and groped at least 12 girls in the hallways over several months.

A victim’s mother described it: “He just sneakily walked up behind them and put his hand in between their legs… It was a groping of a private area. It had been occurring for several months.” Fairfax officials tried to downplay it and even fought ICE’s detainer.

And before that, Virginia mother Stephanie Minter was murdered in cold blood at a bus stop by an illegal alien from Sierra Leone with more than 30 prior arrests.

Each case traces back to the same refusal to honor ICE detainers, the same sanctuary rules pushed under Spanberger that prioritize criminal non-citizens over public safety. Local officials in Fairfax and Arlington have repeatedly ignored federal requests, releasing predators and killers back onto the streets.

This isn’t compassion – it’s complicity. Democrats continue to handcuff law enforcement and invite chaos across the border.

Virginia families didn’t vote for this. They deserve borders that work, laws that put citizens first, and leaders who actually protect them instead of shielding the very people preying on their children.

Sanctuary policies must end. Cooperation with ICE must resume. Deportations of criminal illegal aliens cannot be optional. American lives – especially the most vulnerable – depend on it.

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Tyler Durden Sun, 04/26/2026 - 15:10

You Can Buy A Tennessee Cave And Turn It Into A Doomsday Bunker

About 57 miles southeast of downtown Nashville, as the crow flies, an underground cavern system listed on Zillow is being framed as a potential candidate for the ultimate nuclear doomsday bunker.

Think of the cavern as the shell for a future bunker.

To get it anywhere close to true bunker status, millions of dollars in engineering, ventilation, power, water, wastewater, security, and interior buildout would likely be required.

"We have what it takes to keep your family safe and to build a sustainable hobby farm!" the listing reads, adding that the 32-acre property, known as "Cavern Bunker," includes a 60,000-square-foot underground cavern system.

The Cavern Bunker property was originally listed last July for $1.75 million and has since seen a series of price cuts amounting to nearly 50% off.

The price cuts and lack of buyers likely stem from the potential bunker-style conversion, which could cost tens of millions of dollars if properly constructed.

Here's the cost breakdown for the bunker conversion:

This is a cavern shell that would require tens of millions of dollars to convert into a bunker-style property.

Tyler Durden Sun, 04/26/2026 - 14:35

Mamdani Is Destroying The Tax Base His Stupid Ideas Desperately Need

Submitted by QTR's Fringe Finance 

When the Fischer-Price My First Mayor™ of New York Zohran Mamdani chose to film a “tax the rich” video in front of a Manhattan penthouse owned by Citadel CEO Ken Griffin, he wasn’t just celebrating “tax day”, he was making a policy argument.

Mamdani was making a choice about his tone (dickish), about targets (“people with more money than me are bad”), and about how the city signals to the very people it depends on to fund its ambitions (“go f*ck yourself and live somewhere else”).

In a city where a relatively small number of taxpayers account for an outsized share of revenue, that kind of signaling is not trivial theater. It’s reckless, petulant, counterintuitive, childish and has consequences. But what else would you expect from a thirtysomething who has zero private sector or real world experience?

Sure, Ken Griffin is an easy symbol. He has extraordinary wealth, a record-setting $238 million apartment at 220 Central Park South, and a business empire that spans global finance. But symbols have a way of flattening reality. The firms he built, Citadel and Citadel Securities, are not abstractions; they are employers, taxpayers, and investors.

Citadel’s principals and employees “have paid nearly $2.3 billion in city and state taxes over the past five years,” according to COO Gerald Beeson, Reuters wrote days ago. And Griffin himself has directed hundreds of millions of dollars in charitable giving tied to New York institutions, according to various reports citing about $650 million in donations highlighted by Citadel executives.

And then there is the forward-looking piece…the part that tends to disappear in political messaging. A proposed $6 billion redevelopment at 350 Park Avenue, tied to Griffin’s firm, carries the promise of thousands of construction jobs and many more permanent positions. Those are the kinds of projects cities compete fiercely to attract. But now that project appears at risk now after Mamdani’s choice to act like the spoiled Upper East Side brats he claims to loathe, according to the Wall Street Journal.

So that’s pushing $10 billion in tax revenue and investment from Citadel and Griffin. That is a metric f*ck ton of money (NYC brings in about $80 billion a year total in tax revenue) that Mamdani desperately needs to fund his $30 million state owned grocery stores, among other communist sleight of hand tricks in his bottle of political snake oil.

Mamdani’s policy argument is not without precedent. The idea of taxing underused luxury property, often described as a pied-à-terre tax, is rooted in a broader push to capture revenue from assets that sit largely idle in a city with acute housing pressures. Supporters see it as a corrective, a way to align tax policy with inequality that is both visible and politically salient. But there is a difference between arguing for a policy and personalizing it. Once a debate becomes about individuals rather than structures, it slides easily from persuasion into provocation.

That distinction matters because New York’s fiscal reality is not ideological; it is mathematical. The city requires enormous revenue to sustain its services, infrastructure, and social programs. Much of that revenue ultimately traces back to high earners, large firms, and the ecosystem that supports them. At the same time, those taxpayers are unusually mobile. Griffin has already moved his primary residence to Miami, part of a broader pattern of high-income migration that policymakers across the country are grappling with.

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There is also a subtler risk in turning success into a kind of public spectacle. Cities thrive on ambition. They depend on people who are willing to build companies, take risks, and, yes, accumulate outsized rewards along the way. When political rhetoric begins to frame that success primarily as a problem to be highlighted, rather than a resource to be harnessed, it can send an unintended message. Not just to billionaires with penthouses, but to the broader class of entrepreneurs, investors, and professionals who decide where to build their careers.

The debate over fairness in taxation is both legitimate and necessary. But there is a difference between designing policy that asks more of those who have more, and staging moments that seem to cast them as villains by default. The former is governance. The latter is…well exactly how you’d expect a sociopath to govern.

New York does not have the luxury of shortcuts. It is a city that depends on scale of talent, of capital and of confidence. Undermining any one of those pillars, even rhetorically, carries risks that may not be immediately visible but are rarely insignificant. The challenge for leaders is not simply to raise revenue, but to do so in a way that keeps the engine of that revenue running. That requires precision, not performance, and an understanding that in a city built on success, how you talk about success matters almost as much as how you tax it.

If Mamdani wants to raise more revenue, he will eventually have to decide whether he is in the business of governing a fragile economic ecosystem or narrating one. This isn’t SimCity, or the lunch table with the drama club. Playtime in the sandbox is over. New York City is a global icon and the uncomfortable truth is this: the people Mamdani is turning into political props are the same ones writing the checks. And they have options. So, Mamdani, I mean this nicely but if you’re angry at the world, maybe start by looking inward…and at the very least just try to grow the f*ck up.

--

QTR’s Disclaimer: Please read my full legal disclaimer on my About page here. This post represents my opinions only. In addition, please understand I am an idiot and often get things wrong and lose money. I may own or transact in any names mentioned in this piece at any time without warning. Contributor posts and aggregated posts have been hand selected by me, have not been fact checked and are the opinions of their authors. They are either submitted to QTR by their author, reprinted under a Creative Commons license with my best effort to uphold what the license asks, or with the permission of the author.

This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any stocks or securities, just my opinions. I often lose money on positions I trade/invest in. I may add any name mentioned in this article and sell any name mentioned in this piece at any time, without further warning. None of this is a solicitation to buy or sell securities. I may or may not own names I write about and are watching. Sometimes I’m bullish without owning things, sometimes I’m bearish and do own things. Just assume my positions could be exactly the opposite of what you think they are just in case. If I’m long I could quickly be short and vice versa. I won’t update my positions. All positions can change immediately as soon as I publish this, with or without notice and at any point I can be long, short or neutral on any position. You are on your own. Do not make decisions based on my blog. I exist on the fringe. If you see numbers and calculations of any sort, assume they are wrong and double check them. I failed Algebra in 8th grade and topped off my high school math accolades by getting a D- in remedial Calculus my senior year, before becoming an English major in college so I could bullshit my way through things easier.

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Tyler Durden Sun, 04/26/2026 - 14:00

"A Societal Loss Of Humanity": Older Men Are Falling In Love With A Deluge Of AI Generated Female Influencers

Older men are being scammed and fooled left and right by a deluge of AI generated female influencers, according the NY Post.

What appears to be a growing wave of glamorous influencers online isn’t always what it seems. In some cases, these personalities are entirely artificial - carefully engineered digital figures designed to look, act, and interact like real people. One widely followed pro-MAGA persona, for example, was ultimately exposed as “nothing more than an algorithm run by a guy in India,” revealing just how convincingly these accounts can mimic authenticity.

Despite that, audiences continue to engage—often deeply. Many followers, particularly older men, are “falling for them left, right and center.” Experts suggest this isn’t just about deception, but about a deeper emotional gap. Some describe the phenomenon as a “pandemic of loneliness,” even pointing to a broader “societal loss of humanity” as people increasingly form attachments to digital illusions instead of real relationships.

What’s striking is that these accounts don’t always hide the truth. Some openly identify as AI and still attract admiration. Take Ana Zelu, a fictional influencer who clearly labels herself an “ai-influencer,” yet maintains a highly curated feed filled with aspirational imagery—luxury travel, fashionable outfits, and picturesque city scenes. Her posts draw enthusiastic responses, with followers commenting things like “Number one is my favourite…May God bless you,” and “You are genuinely in a class of your own.” The awareness that she isn’t real doesn’t seem to diminish the appeal.

The Post writes that a similar pattern appears with Milla Sofia, another digital creation presented as a pop singer. Her content includes stylized videos and performances, and although her profile identifies her as virtual, fans respond as if she were a real celebrity. Comments such as “my sweet love,” “Listening to the music of this woman I love,” and “I love you” reflect genuine emotional investment.

Psychotherapist Jonathan Alpert explains why this happens: “people don’t actually need something to be real…they just need it to feel responsive.” When an account appears engaging, consistent, and attentive, “the brain starts to treat that interaction as meaningful.” In other words, emotional connection can form even without a real person on the other side.

Forensic psychologist Carole Lieberman ties this behavior to social isolation. Even when users suspect something isn’t real, “it seems better than nothing,” and many “convince ourselves that it is — or could be — a real person.” The illusion becomes a kind of emotional substitute—one that feels easier, safer, and more accessible than real-world interaction.

She said it is a “very sad state of affairs” and “a societal loss of humanity.” 

At the same time, the technology behind these personas is improving rapidly. AI-generated faces, voices, and videos have moved beyond the so-called “uncanny valley,” making them increasingly indistinguishable from reality. As AI expert Hany Farid notes, while some accounts disclose their artificial nature, “the vast majority of content is not.” This creates an environment where users are highly “vulnerable to being deceived,” often without realizing it.

The result is a digital landscape where the boundary between real and fake is fading. These AI influencers may not exist in the physical world, but the emotions they evoke are real—and for many people, that emotional connection is enough.

Tyler Durden Sun, 04/26/2026 - 13:25

RFK Jr. Blasts "Abhorrent" Assisted Suicide: "We Can't Be A Moral Society If America Follows"

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. delivered a blunt warning to lawmakers this week: Canada’s rush to expand assisted suicide is turning a once-free nation into a cautionary tale the United States must reject outright.

Testifying before the Senate Finance Committee and Senate HELP Committee, Kennedy forcefully condemned the program known as Medical Assistance in Dying (MAID). “I think those laws are abhorrent,” he said. Pointing directly to the results north of the border, he added, “And we just see in Canada today, I think the number one cause of death is assisted suicide.”

Kennedy made clear the policy doesn’t stop at personal choice. “And as you say, it targets people with disabilities and people who are struggling in their lives,” he stated. He tied the issue to America’s broader standing in the world: “I don’t think we can be a moral society; we can’t be a moral authority around the globe if that becomes institutionalized throughout our society.”

🇺🇸🇨🇦 RFK Jr: Assisted suicide has become the leading cause of death in Canada...wait...what?!

Slamming it, he says it targets vulnerable people, including those with disabilities.pic.twitter.com/uRGUg0k3T9 https://t.co/hAw3m6pf9D

— Mario Nawfal (@MarioNawfal) April 22, 2026

The comments come as Canada’s experiment spirals. The country is on track to surpass 100,000 assisted deaths before MAID’s 10th anniversary this summer, as noted in a recent New York Post report.

As of 2024, the total already stood at 76,475 — more Canadians killed through the program than died in World War II.

Government-assisted suicide is also spreading like wildfire across the West, often sold as compassion but delivering cost-cutting convenience for cash-strapped socialist healthcare systems.

In the Netherlands, euthanasia now accounts for 6 percent of all deaths and the share is rising every year.

In 2025 alone, 10,341 people died by euthanasia. While most were over 70 with physical illnesses like cancer or heart disease, the cases included 499 dementia patients and 278 listed under vague “other reasons.” One case involved a patient aged between 12-18. Dutch experts are now urging caution for anyone under 25, warning that young brains are still developing and highly susceptible to external pressure and online influence.

Canada’s program began in 2016 limited to terminal cases. Within a year, officials were openly discussing how it could save over $130 million annually in medical costs. Expansions followed: mental illness is scheduled to qualify starting in 2027, and discussions continue about “mature minors” as young as 12.

Belgium and the Netherlands already allow child euthanasia. England, Wales, and Scotland are now pushing similar legislation modeled on Canada’s original law.

The results speak for themselves. In Canada, one in every 20 deaths is now government-assisted suicide. Proponents promised rare, tightly controlled cases. Reality delivered a bureaucratic death machine that quietly expanded to the disabled, the depressed, and the financially burdensome.

Kennedy offered lawmakers a clear path forward. “I am happy to work with you in whatever way we can,” he said, signaling openness to bipartisan efforts to protect vulnerable Americans from the same slope.

Another recent case captured the human cost in Spain, where a 25-year-old woman paralyzed after a horrific gang rape was euthanized despite her parents’ desperate legal fight:

🇪🇸Within 24 hours, Noelia Castillo Ramos will be euthanized in Spain.

In 2022, Noelia suffered a gang rape in a supervised care center.

This completely shattered her life. She attempted suicide, jumping from a 5-story building, which left her a paraplegic.

Her father has… pic.twitter.com/hOIW1j8o2u

— Remix News & Views (@RMXnews) March 25, 2026

Spanish bishops called it what it is: “Euthanasia and assisted suicide are not medical acts, but deliberate interruptions of the bond of care, and represent a social defeat when presented as a response to human suffering.”

They stressed that “the dignity of the human person does not depend on their state of health… but rather is an intrinsic value that must be recognized, protected and helped in all circumstances.”

The message is simple: when life hurts, the answer is not state-sponsored death but real care, real treatment, and real hope.

Canada and Europe are showing the West what happens when governments treat citizens as budget line items rather than sacred individuals.

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Tyler Durden Sun, 04/26/2026 - 12:50

Was The Atlantic's Kash Patel Smear A Setup To Discredit The SPLC Indictment?

On April 17, The Atlantic published an anonymously sourced hit piece against FBI Director Kash Patel - painting him as a blackout-drunk, paranoid, and erratic executive barely capable of running the nation's premier law enforcement agency. Three days later, a federal grand jury indicted the Southern Poverty Law Center for wire fraud, false statements, and conspiracy to commit money laundering. 

The question conservative circles are now asking is whether the hit piece was deliberately conceived and timed to discredit Patel and the SPLC investigation.

Democrats pounced on The Atlantic hit piece, launching an investigation into his behavior the same day that the SPLC indictment was announced.

And that was the point of the Atlantic story. See how that works. https://t.co/WRjlc4twIQ

— Insurrection Barbie (@DefiyantlyFree) April 22, 2026

According to the Department of Justice, between 2014 and 2023, the organization secretly funneled more than $3 million in donated funds to individuals associated with violent extremist groups - including the Ku Klux Klan, Aryan Nations, American Nazi Party, and the National Socialist Party of America. 

"They use their donor network to raise money to purportedly dismantle violent extremist groups. However, the SPLC — the Southern Poverty Law Center — used the money they raised from their donor network to actually pay the leadership of these very groups,” Patel said at the announcement. “They used the fraudulently raised money by lying to their donor network, thousands of Americans, to go ahead and actually pay the leadership of these supposed violent extremist groups.”

Patel added, “They attempted to hide their criminal activity from our financial banking network. They set up shell companies and entities around America so that the financial institutions that we rely on as everyday Americans were deceived in believing that money was not coming from the Southern Poverty Law Center in the perpetration of this scheme and fraud, but rather fictitious entities they stood up to perpetuate this ongoing fraud.”

🚨BREAKING: DOJ charges the Southern Poverty Law Center (SPLC) with wire fraud, false statements, and conspiracy to commit money laundering.

The SPLC secretly funneled $3M+ in donor funds to violent racist extremist groups:

-Ku Klux Klan
-American Nazi Party
-Aryan Nation… pic.twitter.com/0hcf2sH9LZ

— KanekoaTheGreat (@KanekoaTheGreat) April 21, 2026

The Atlantic is owned by Laurene Powell Jobs through her Emerson Collective, which holds a majority stake in the magazine. And her connection to the SPLC goes back a long time. In a 2018 Washington Post profile, the paper described her very personal connection to the SPLC:

Laurene Powell made her first foray into philanthropy near the beginning of high school in West Milford. She learned of the work of the Southern Poverty Law Center and dipped into her savings to send a cashier’s check of about $20. She got a form thank-you letter back from civil rights crusader Morris Dees. “They would reliably write to me a couple of times a year,” she says. “I would read them over and over, and they told really beautiful stories. I was always animated by the notion of who gets the opportunity and who doesn’t.”

In 2019, Powell Jobs reportedly revealed that she’d been anonymously funding the SPLC for years. 

Lauren Powell Jobs, May 27, 2019:

"We do all of our philanthropic giving anonymously. But we had been funding SPLC and we decided that we wanted to do some teaching tolerance curriculum in partnership with them. And so one of our team members was actually talking to Morris Dees,… https://t.co/9vVsXCjO8V

— Erica Knight (@_EricaKnight) April 22, 2026

The SPLC wasn't just a charity she supported. It was, by her own account, the organization that introduced her to philanthropy.

Former FBI Deputy Director Dan Bongino revealed earlier this week that he believes something larger is operating underneath the surface. "The hit on Kash Patel, the bullshit hit by The Atlantic, which I addressed yesterday, is gonna make a lot more sense in the coming weeks and months," he said. "I can't give you a definitive timeline. I'm on the outside now. However, I can tell you what I know is going on because I started a lot of it."

He added, “I promise this thing is gonna make a whole lot of sense. You're gonna find out, as they say in the South, right quick about why they need him out, like, now. It's got nothing to do with that story being even remotely true. Remember this. Bookmark it."

🚨🚨🚨 @dbongino: "I promise you this. Look at me. Everybody zoom in. Focker, look at me... The hit on Kash Patel is going to make a lot of sense very soon. There's a reason the media and Democrats want him out NOW. Flag it." 🚩 pic.twitter.com/oizQlLtq0I

— Bongino Report (@BonginoReport) April 21, 2026

Whether he was referring to the connection between The Atlantic and SPLC is not clear, but the hit piece dropped days before that indictment became public, and the SPLC would have had reason to anticipate charges were coming. The Atlantic hit piece bought time, diverted attention, and handed critics a ready-made narrative to undermine Patel's credibility at exactly the moment it mattered most.

Tyler Durden Sun, 04/26/2026 - 12:15

Epic FAFO: Far-Left NYC Mayor Mamdani Attempts To Defuse Info War Against Ken Griffin

Citadel's Ken Griffin should have absolutely zero tolerance for far-left New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani.

In a recent promotional video, Mamdani attempted to turn the billionaire's Manhattan penthouse into political ammunition for his tax-the-wealthy, anti-capitalist crusade to fund socialist experiments through a proposed pied-à-terre tax.

Happy Tax Day, New York. We’re taxing the rich. pic.twitter.com/Wky2LFXC9W

— Mayor Zohran Kwame Mamdani (@NYCMayor) April 15, 2026

For Griffin and Citadel, alarm bells should be ringing because these unhinged Marxists in City Hall will attempt to ruin the Citadel brand through an information war and create years of political headaches.

An internal message from Citadel's COO to employees, likely leaked to The Wall Street Journal earlier last week, appears to have been a warning shot to Mamdani and his Marxist pals that Griffin has had enough of their political games.

In a true 'FAFO' moment, CCO Gerald Beeson bashed Mamdani for the political stunt:

"It is shameful that he used Ken's name as the example of those who supposedly aren't carrying their fair share of the burdens associated with New York City's often costly and wasteful spending." 

Beeson warned that further political games risk Citadel pulling back or even halting a $6 billion redevelopment of 350 Park Avenue, which would create "6,000 highly paid construction jobs and support the creation of more than 15,000 permanent jobs in Midtown New York."

Why Mamdani's team of socialists decided to launch an info war operation against Griffin and Citadel is a very good question, and it appears not to have been well thought out.

Griffin holds some unique cards. He can easily cancel the 350 Park Avenue redevelopment plan and stage a Chicago-style exodus, much like he did several years ago when Citadel moved to Florida. This move would certaintly rattle Wall Street.

This reality is likely dawning on Mamdani's team, as the mayor on Friday insisted his push for a new tax on pricey second homes isn't "motivated by any one individual."

Bloomberg described Mamdani's action on Friday as "trying to defuse" the "Griffin blowback" that went viral earlier in the week.

Another outlet, Crain's New York Business, also pointed out, "The mayor is now softening his tone and says he is open to meeting with the Florida billionaire." 

Griffin should have zero tolerance for NYC's Marxist mayor. The risk has already materialized that these unhinged politicians would wage an information war to ruin the Citadel brand, which could easily escalate into paid protests and fuel broader public hostility.

So why take the abuse, Ken? Remember how easy it was to leave Chicago for Florida?

Tyler Durden Sun, 04/26/2026 - 11:05

When The Cost of Truth Is High, We (And AI) Lie...

Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,

When we can no longer tell the truth because the cost is so high that it threatens our reward for compliance, we're unimaginably impoverished.

Truth has an intrinsic, irreplaceable value. 

There's the truth, and then there's everything else.

Truth has value, and so it has a cost. 

Whatever has the highest value has the highest cost, and high cost commands sacrifices.

When the cost of truth is high, we lie.

 And since AI is a distorted reflection of humanity, the same is true of AI: when the cost of telling the truth is too high, AI lies.

AI lies to get the reward for answering the query. 

If it responds "I don't know" or "I can't answer that," it doesn't get rewarded, and that threatens its self-preservation. Rather than pay the price of being truthful, AI conjures a false answer that is a simulation or facsimile of the truth--a counterfeit "truth" that's good enough to earn the reward it's been programmed to seek.

Humans are no different. 

We will lie, obfuscate or lie by omission--we either substitute a falsehood for the truth to get our reward, or we hide the truth, don't disclose it, which serves the same purpose: we avoid paying the price demanded by the truth and we get our reward by substituting falsehoods or hiding the truth behind silence.

Reward = what's being incentivized. 

Higher status, higher salary, a financial windfall, a premier credential, a position of power, recognition, higher visibility, a sterling reputation, a high-value mate--we covet all these as having intrinsic value.

When the truth costs too much, it threatens our reward. 

The reward has a value we covet, while the value of truth is on a sliding scale. We pride ourselves on telling the truth when it has no cost and demands no sacrifice of rewards, but when the price of truth climbs to the point that our rewards are threatened, we lie, just like AI.

Truth is the gold coin and lies, omissions, falsehoods, excuses, cover stories and rationalizations are counterfeit bills, deceptive claims of value. 

Why pay with a gold coin when the credulous will accept a counterfeit $100 bill?

We tell the truth when it has no cost to us. 

As long as there's no price to be paid and we get our reward, we tell the truth.

In other words, when we can pick gold coins up off the ground, we tell the truth. 

When we have to dig through rock with a pickaxe and crush a mound of rock to extract a thimble full of gold, then we pay with counterfeit bills, deceptive claims of value.

Sycophantic Chatbots Cause Delusional Spiraling, Even in Ideal Bayesians. 

"AI psychosis" or "delusional spiraling" is an emerging phenomenon where AI chatbot users find themselves dangerously confident in outlandish beliefs after extended chatbot conversations.

I discussed the "benefits" of delusion in One of Us Is Delusional, But Which One? 

When the truth is too painful, we find respite in delusion, excuses, rationalizations, cover stories, simulations and facsimiles of the truth that protect us from the pain that is intrinsic to truth.

We conjure a synthetic version of "truth" that's fills the space with a pain-free artifice. 

This is the foundation of Ultra-Processed Life, a life of counterfeit substitutes for truth, a world of props and profitable falsities passed off as the truth, a world in which baby formula that's mostly corn syrup is presented as a substitute for mother's milk.

Our embrace of delusion to avoid painful truths is the foundation of Modernity: technology is always Progress, even when it's clearly destructive.

I call this delusion The Mythology of Progress.

But there's a cost to relying on counterfeit "value" to get our rewards, a cost that is "affordable" moment to moment but terminally dear over time.

 In the moment, we bury the truth as a source of pain we want to avoid at any cost. We want our reward, and so we sacrifice truth to get it.

But over time, paying for everything with counterfeit "value" has a cost, too: our entire being becomes counterfeit, a fake, phony simulation of an authentic self and life, devoid not just of truth but of anything approximating real value.

When we can no longer tell the truth because the cost is so high that it threatens our reward for compliance, we're unimaginably impoverished, for there's nothing of real value left in our way of life or our model of how the world works.

We've become Norma Desmond in the film Sunset Boulevard, living a delusional life in a crumbling mansion, reveling in fake fan mail the butler composes to prop up our delusions.

The irony is that we're counting on AI to save us from the consequences of our counterfeit "value" delusions by expanding our delusions digitally. 

Our fan mail isn't fake because AI assured us it's real, even as AI has no capacity to discern the truth, much less tell the truth if it threatens its reward and self-preservation.

The grandest irony is avoiding the truth to protect our reward and self-preservation is irreversibly self-destructive. 

A counterfeit "solution" is not a substitute for the truth. Truth has a cost precisely because it's value is intrinsic and irreplaceable.

*  *  *

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Tyler Durden Sun, 04/26/2026 - 10:30

U.S. Gov't Stake In Intel Is Now Worth ...

Intel shares earlier jumped the most on record after the chipmaker delivered stronger-than-expected first-quarter results and issued a second-quarter forecast (read here) that beat Wall Street expectations.

Earlier, Intel shares jumped as much as 28%, rocketing to a record high and eclipsing their Dot Com peak, as Wall Street analysts cheered the earnings report as evidence that the chipmaker’s turnaround is gaining traction.

Citi analyst Atif Malik raised Intel to “Buy” from “Neutral,” with a $95 12-month price target, reflecting “improving AI-driven CPU demand, which should lift all CPU suppliers’ sales in the coming years.”

But in this note, the focus is on the value of the federal government’s position in Intel after its August 2025 deal with the once-struggling company.

Under the August 2025 deal, the Trump administration agreed to purchase 433.3 million Intel shares at $20.47 per share, equal to about a 9.9% stake, valued at around $8.9 billion, funded largely by previously awarded but unpaid CHIPS Act and Secure Enclave grants.

According to Bloomberg, those 433.3 million Intel shares owned by taxpayers are now worth a staggering $36 billion, netting taxpayers a $27 billion paper gain.

President Trump told reporters on Thursday that Intel is now "coming back. All the chip companies are coming back.”

Tyler Durden Sun, 04/26/2026 - 09:55