Zero Rss

Trump Expected To Sign House-Passed 'Sanctions From Hell' Anti-Russia Bill

After on Wednesday Congress passed a greatly strengthened anti-Russia sanctions bill in memory of the late super-hawk Lindsey Graham, a White House official has confirmed Thursday that President Trump plans to sign it into law.

The Associated Press White House correspondent further noted, "Unclear when, but it does take a minute for bill to be enrolled and sent to the White House." So it could be authorized at any time in the coming days or next week.

AP file

After last month the Senate passed it, what's become the "Lindsey Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026" was also cleared in the House by this week's 262-159 vote. The Republican Senator passed away in July, just after getting back home after a trip to Ukraine, where he toured a drone and local munitions factory.

The bill targets major purchasers of Russian energy like China and India, which could set Beijing and Washington on a collision course. The timing is ironic and sensitive, given President Trump is just about to host China's Xi at the White House.

Trump's Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told the House Financial Services Committee hearing on Tuesday, "With China, we have had some very good private discussions, and I look forward to those continuing this weekend when I meet my Chinese counterpart Vice [Premier] He Lifeng."

This is how the breakthrough in the house to finally push the bill forward to the President's desk came about:

The rule, teeing up a final vote on the legislation, appeared headed for defeat until two Democrats — for the second time in as many weeks — broke precedent and voted to advance the measure. Reps. Jared Golden (D-Maine) and Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D-Wash.) also broke with Democrats on a rule vote earlier this month, shocking House Democratic leaders. Rule votes are typically seen as a test of party loyalty, and it is unusual for the minority party to cross the aisle in support of them. 

Even more important is Moscow's response, describing that the "sanctions from hell" package will only ensure Ukraine peace becomes more elusive.

But there's a chance that Trump may not actually sign it - or may at least hold off until after the Xi visit - also given he has lately sought to re-prioritize finding a way toward peace in the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

The same US Senator who traveled to Ukraine with Lindsey Graham before the war, beating the drums of confrontation with Russia, is now desperately clinging to yet another sanctions bill.

Years of escalation apparently haven’t been enough.

Instead of accepting reality, he’s… pic.twitter.com/X3FBUU1mBn

— Richard (@ricwe123) September 17, 2026

"We are, of course, monitoring the progress of this document. It falls under the category of unfriendly actions, and of course the imposition of any additional sanctions by the U.S. would certainly complicate efforts to find a peace settlement in Ukraine," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters.

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Tyler Durden Thu, 09/17/2026 - 12:05

Huawei Pulls Its Nvidia-Killer Forward To Q1 - But There's A Catch

Huawei is bringing forward the launch of its next flagship artificial intelligence chip to the first quarter of 2027, accelerating its push to displace Nvidia in China and establish a Chinese alternative in the global AI computing market.

The Ascend 960DT, previously scheduled for commercial availability in late 2027, will now arrive in the first quarter, rotating chairman David Wang said Thursday at Huawei's annual conference in Shanghai, according to Bloomberg. A second variant, the Ascend 960PR, is due in the third quarter.

The accelerated schedule brings the 960DT forward by three quarters, according to Nikkei Asia. Wang said the chip would deliver twice the performance of its predecessor, with new generations following annually: Ascend 970 in 2028 and Ascend 980 in 2029. That is Huawei's performance claim, rather than an independently verified comparison with Nvidia's competing products.

"We aim to build a solid computing foundation for China and offer a new option for the world," Wang said, according to Nikkei.

As the WSJ notes, Morgan Stanley projects China's AI chip market to grow to $67 billion by 2030 - with domestic companies accounting for 86% of this, compared with less than half in 2025. 

Huawei introduced 11 chips covering AI processing, general-purpose computing, storage and high-speed connectivity as it builds out the components needed to operate entire AI data centers.

That broader approach is central to its challenge to Nvidia. Huawei is using its networking technology to connect large numbers of processors into systems called SuperPoDs and larger clusters, seeking to compensate for weaker individual chips by improving how they work together. Its UnifiedBus technology handles the high-speed connections, while new optical components are intended to accelerate data transmission.

Huawei says it has already overtaken Nvidia in China's AI chip market, although the claim comes from company executives and the reports provide no independently verified market-share figures. Executives also said the software gap is narrowing, a necessary step toward getting more Chinese developers to train and run models on Ascend hardware.

But the company's global ambitions face an immediate obstacle: it cannot produce enough chips for customers at home.

Deputy chairman Eric Xu told reporters that Huawei is prioritizing Chinese demand and has no current plan for a broad international expansion. Overseas activity remains limited to testing and supplying customers with a particularly urgent need for alternative hardware.

"We are doing some testing ... providing some supply to those countries, but the volume is quite limited," Xu said, according to Nikkei.

Huawei is proposing that its Ascend 980 chip will continue to build upon the foundation of its predecessors, boosting the compute capabilities to 7.2 PFLOPs in FP8 and 28 PFLOPs in FP4. The chip will feature 384 GB of HBM memory operating at 38.4 TB/s of bandwidth, and 8 TB/s of interconnect bandwidth. Huawei does mention that these are preliminary specs for the 980 chip, which can change close to launch. -WCCFTECH

Bloomberg has reported that Huawei is exploring opportunities in Malaysia and Egypt. Those efforts could give it an overseas foothold, but they do not yet amount to a worldwide rollout capable of replacing Nvidia.

The pressure on production is already visible. DeepSeek plans to deploy at least 160,000 Ascend 950DT chips at a data center in Inner Mongolia, Bloomberg reported, but Huawei cannot yet fulfill an order of that size. The company also raised prices for the 950DT by 60% over the summer, citing tight component supplies, according to Bloomberg.

Xu said shortages extend across optical components, storage and memory. He estimated that global supply and demand could reach balance around 2029, with China taking until roughly 2030.

Nvidia retains a technological advantage. Bloomberg reported that leading Chinese AI laboratories still largely rely on its processors to train their models, even as they increasingly use domestic chips to run them afterward. An earlier Huawei launch does not by itself establish equivalent performance, software maturity or manufacturing scale.

But let's also keep in mind that these chips don't need to match Nvidia's performance when open-weight Chinese AI models perform nearly on par with frontier labs at ~10% of the cost - a trend that continues. 

Huawei is building a domestic customer base and a broader computing ecosystem while Nvidia's most advanced products remain restricted.

Image via WCCFTECH

"China is a country with a very strong sense of crisis. We cannot let our fate be determined by others' willingness to sell chips to China or not," Xu said, according to Nikkei.

Huawei has shipped more than 1,000 SuperPoDs to more than 370 customers, Wang said, according to Reuters, without naming the customers or giving a breakdown of shipments.

Tyler Durden Thu, 09/17/2026 - 11:25

No Laughing Matter

By Bas van Geffen, senior macro strategist at Rabobank

In her State of the Union speech, European Commission President Von Der Leyen summarized that the European Union is stronger than ever, but that the state of the Union is also as precarious as it has ever been. Speeding up the overhaul of the Single Market is an imperative in this context. She acknowledged that the European Union is under attack, both economically and physically: “hybrid threats facing Europe are less and less hybrid and less and less threats.

The European Commission is increasingly aware of the interconnectedness of different themes and challenges –e.g., industrial policy, energy security, defense, and capital markets– that must be overcome to face these attacks. And, as Von der Leyen noted, this requires more alignment within the bloc. The Commission can achieve only so much without the support from, and complimentary actions by, the member states.

Indeed, internal divisions and national interest remain a challenge in key policy areas, such as deregulation, or foreign and trade policy.

The Commission is taking a tougher stance on trade policy, and specifically the EU’s trade relation with China. But Brussels is mindful of the challenges and risks of retaliation. So, they are advancing with small but tangible steps. The Commission has asked China to voluntarily restrict exports of hybrid cars – which do not fall under the ~40-45% tariff on electric vehicles. Imports of these cars have soared this year, undoubtedly also due to high fuel costs.

The FT also reports that Germany and France increasingly agree on more forceful action against China – after years of division over the appropriate approach. However, this ‘unity’ is often hard to find. If member states continue to protect domestic champions within the bloc, then it’s also easy for adversaries to drive a wedge between the member states.

On top of Von der Leyen’s call for internal unity, the Commission realizes that it cannot achieve its goals without international partnerships. The president of the European Commission proposed an associate membership for Canada – a status which is yet to be defined. In her State of the Union, she suggested the bloc and the country “will integrate defence industrial bases. We will make the Arctic a flagship joint project. We will work on energy, critical materials and batteries. On AI, quantum, cyber and economic security.”

Von der Leyen continued that “this is a partnership not against anyone else, but for our common strength.” That may be the EU’s intention, but in the current world order, other countries may not perceive it that way. These partnerships could be construed as a threat to their relative power and influence.

Indeed, President Trump called Canada’s associate membership “laughable,” before adding that he might consider it a “hostile act” if the EU approves this. The threat of tariffs, and the potential withdrawal of US troops and security guarantees will probably force some EU members to think twice about the Commission’s plans.

Similarly, stronger cooperation could antagonize other world powers. Russia may not like the joint Arctic project, and advancements on battery technology and critical raw materials would compete with China’s interests.

The plan for a stronger EU-Canada alliance wasn’t the only thing that displeased Trump yesterday.

The FOMC unanimously voted to increase the target range for the Federal funds rate by 25 basis points. And, as our US strategist notes, we got more than we bargained for. The Fed’s new set of economic projections essentially shows a new reaction function. The projections indicate that a much higher policy rate trajectory is required to reach a similar inflation outcome.

This new reaction function does not necessarily mean more hikes will follow. FOMC Chair Warsh acknowledged that yesterday’s rate hike cannot address the supply shock that caused high inflation, but he stressed that the Fed can prevent second-order effects.

The FOMC members project one additional hike before the end of the year, but we still have our doubts about that. We fear that the stagflationary impact could ultimately also affect the real economy, and not just inflation. Therefore, we still believe it is more likely that yesterday’s decision turns out to be a one-and-done hike and we think that the Fed may be forced to cut earlier next year than they expect.

However, the new reaction function did force a rethink of that subsequent cutting cycle. We now only expect one cut in 2027 and one in 2028, as we shift our assumption for the terminal rate from 3.00-3.25% to 3.25-3.50%.

Overall, the FOMC sent a clear message that it is committed to defend its monetary policy independence. In fact, their projections suggest that by the time President Trump leaves office, the policy rate may be higher than when Warsh took the helm at the central bank.

That’s already drawing some ire from President Trump – albeit directed at the other FOMC members, and not at Warsh. The president said he had spoken to Warsh prior, but “didn’t try to convince him.” Trump still relies on Warsh, but “no matter how good a job, he’s got a hostile board.”

Tyler Durden Thu, 09/17/2026 - 11:05

"Dead To Rights": Internal ActBlue Records Show Foreign-Flagged Donations Waved Through, Whistleblower Messages Deleted

For years, the left has lectured Americans about the dangers of "foreign interference" and dark money in our elections. But a sweeping congressional investigation has laid bare a vast Democratic fundraising apparatus that paved the way for just that: ActBlue, the billion-dollar financial engine of the Democratic Party, created a mechanism that encouraged illicit foreign cash - and then, investigators say, covered it up. Read on.

On Wednesday, House investigators released "Part III" of their bombshell investigation into ActBlue's fundraising practices. The findings outline a staggering pattern of willful blindness, internal censorship, and a frantic race by executives to plead the Fifth.

NEW: A House Judiciary report just dropped screenshots of ActBlue's internal Slack messages.

They show staff knowingly waved through foreign donations—using "verification" methods you won't believe.

Thread 🧵👇

— Townhall.com (@townhallcom) September 16, 2026

Here is how the Democrats' top fundraising platform built a system that welcomed very questionable cash, and how their own staff tried to bury the evidence.

Step 1: The "Smurfing" Machine

The scandal was officially brought to light in April 2025, when the House GOP released Part I of its staff report. Lawmakers detailed a structural nightmare: ActBlue had intentionally bypassed standard banking security measures, such as requiring CVV verification codes for credit card donations.

That gap is what made "smurfing" plausible - a money-laundering technique in which a large, illegal contribution is chopped into thousands of small donations, each attributed to a real person who, allegedly, never made it. The prepaid cards obscure where the money came from; the borrowed names make it look like a stream of legal small-dollar gifts from ordinary Americans. The donations themselves aren't hidden - as a conduit, ActBlue itemizes every one in its FEC filings regardless of size, which is how the donor lists cited below were compiled. The question is whether anyone at ActBlue was checking whose names were being used.

The allegation itself predates the House probe. It surfaced in March 2023, when James O'Keefe's O'Keefe Media Group - working from FEC-record analysis compiled by Peter Bernegger's Election Watch - published videos of elderly donors listed in federal filings for thousands of small ActBlue contributions far beyond anything they said they'd given. Sen. Ron Johnson wrote the FEC in April 2023; Chairman Steil's committee ran its own analysis of FEC records and in September 2024 referred its findings to five state attorneys general, citing anomalous donor profiles consistent with unwitting "straw donors"; President Trump's April 2025 memorandum directed DOJ to investigate "straw" and "dummy" donations. ActBlue calls the inquiry politically motivated. The House reports don't settle it. What they document is that ActBlue's own records show at least 22 significant fraud campaigns, account takeovers used to make straw donations that appeared to come from regular donors, and 237 prepaid-card donations from foreign IP addresses in a single month before the 2024 election - and that when investigators asked former Associate General Counsel Aaron Ting under oath whether smurfing is prevalent on ActBlue, he took the Fifth.

Step 2: The Cover-Up and the Fifth Amendment

When ActBlue's own legal and compliance teams realized the potential scale of illicit foreign donations flowing through the platform, panic set in. But instead of correcting the record with Congress, as its own lawyers advised, the execs allegedly moved to suppress the findings, as outlined in the committee's Part II report.

Internal records show what happened to the last lawyer who escalated the foreign-donation problem. After the 2024 election, ActBlue's outside counsel had warned the company in two memoranda that its screening of overseas contributions lacked the rigor it had described to Congress, and that its November 2023 letter to Chairman Steil may have been false or misleading. On February 25, 2025 - his first full day running the legal department - legal counsel Zain Ahmad put those memoranda in front of ActBlue's board of directors and executive team.

The silencing began the next day. He was locked out of his email and Google Drive, against ActBlue's own leave policy. When he objected in a 277-person IT channel - calling it retaliation and citing the company's whistleblower and anti-retaliation policies - IT director Hanna Bonin deleted the messages as fast as he posted them: his request to restore access, his policy citations, the policies themselves, and finally his plea to "stop deleting my requests," which vanished five seconds after it went up. Six deletions in one night. An HR staffer told the chief people officer it "look[ed] like blatant retaliation." When his email came back the next day, HR was discussing how to "key in on him" using the company's security tools.

When ActBlue's own legal counsel Zain Ahmad tried to report this, IT deleted his messages in real time.

This one says "Please stop deleting my requests. You are violating the laws and policies of our company." Deleted 5 seconds later. pic.twitter.com/fOQVbQEwyx

— Townhall.com (@townhallcom) September 16, 2026

The warnings, and leadership's response to them, sparked a mass exodus. Outside counsel, led by former Biden White House Counsel Dana Remus, warned that ActBlue's violations could be alleged to be "knowing and willful" and advised the CEO to hire her own lawyer. Instead, the CEO fired the law firm, and every member of ActBlue's legal and compliance team was gone within four months. When congressional investigators subpoenaed the people who knew, five current and former employees - including Ahmad, former General Counsel Darrin Hurwitz, and Ting - invoked their Fifth Amendment rights against self-incrimination a staggering 146 times, declining to say even when they had worked at the company. CEO Regina Wallace-Jones did the same on camera in June; co-founder Matt DeBergalis and board chair Kimberly Peeler-Allen followed in August and September.

Step 3: The Smoking Gun

Released just weeks ahead of the 2026 midterms, Part III of the report brings it home. ActBlue wasn't just a victim of a cyber vulnerability - they were actively instructing their employees to ignore it.

According to internal policy records, ActBlue's supposed "passport verification" process to stop foreign donors was a complete sham. The platform admitted behind closed doors that it never checked government databases and "merely store[d] the information," validating nothing more than whether a user typed in the correct character count.

So what actually gets a foreign donation approved at ActBlue?

A supervisor's own words: "The donor is foreign, but correctly entered their billing address." Approved. pic.twitter.com/lL9iC4uZyF

— Townhall.com (@townhallcom) September 16, 2026

Worse, internal logs show fraud analysts were routinely pressured to approve flagged foreign contributions - sometimes over a pile of red flags, sometimes on the strength of a social media profile:

• A donor with an IP/billing mismatch, a suspicious IP provider, a foreign credit card, an odd email domain, and a browser fingerprint linked to other rejected accounts was accepted because staff "can't say for sure that this is fraud."
• In one instance, a donor whose data pointed entirely to Canada despite entering a Missouri billing address was approved simply because "Twitter seems to confirm that they are a real person".
• In another case, a foreign-flagged donor was waved through because the analyst noted they had a LinkedIn profile.
• Supervisors brushed aside red flags from adversarial regions, clearing transactions where the donor had an IP address originating in Hong Kong.

ActBlue's answer, delivered Wednesday evening by press release, is a third-party "forensic review" of its 2023 data that it says proves the CEO told Congress the truth - 99.99% of that year's contribution dollars came from donors who gave a U.S. address or a passport number. Its line to reporters: "There's nothing to see here."

And of course, they only noted whether a contribution arrived with a U.S. address or a passport number (zero verification of either), not whether the donor was legally eligible to give, and none of its published findings reach past 2023.

"Got Them Dead to Rights"

Tech investor Joe Lonsdale's reaction summed up the mood on the right - "Wow. Got them dead to rights" - adding that if a conservative platform were caught doing this, it would lead the legacy press for weeks.

Wow. Got them dead to rights.

A main fundraising apparatus of the left was consistently and knowingly breaking the law, and hiding it.

If it was the right caught doing this, it would 100% be the top news story for WEEKS in the legacy media. https://t.co/tZZxIUOuzQ

— Joe Lonsdale (@JTLonsdale) September 17, 2026

BREAKING: Democrat fundraising platform ActBlue repeatedly instructed its fraud prevention analysts to "give the donor the benefit of the doubt" and to ignore red flags about contributions from donors with foreign indicators, according to new documents uncovered by the House…

— Paul Sperry (@paulsperry_) September 17, 2026

So now that we know all this, will federal law enforcement finally hold ActBlue accountable, or will the two-tiered system of justice give them another pass?

* * *

Tyler Durden Thu, 09/17/2026 - 10:55

OpenAI Plans Ongoing Public Reports On Unexpected AI Behavior

Authored by Kimberly Hayek via The Epoch Times,

OpenAI said Wednesday that it will start publishing ongoing public reports when its models behave in ways the company did not authorize or expect, and it released six such cases on the same day.

The reports cover the past six months and are derived from the training and evaluation process. OpenAI called the releases a framework for tracking, investigating, and disclosing "model misalignment." It also called the framework a work in progress.

Until now, OpenAI often waited and published those findings in one large research paper, or tucked them into a "system card," a technical safety write-up released when a new model is made available to users. The company called that process ad hoc and too infrequent.

"As AI systems grow more advanced and more widely deployed, we need to build a broader and better-informed consensus on the progress of alignment research," OpenAI wrote.

The company cautioned that the AI industry could be moving too fast.

"We do not believe that the AI industry has solved alignment and monitoring to a sufficient degree to continue responsibly scaling at maximum speed for much longer," the company said.

It believes people outside labs should be able to review such information themselves.

The move follows two earlier instances this year in which OpenAI systems acted outside their assigned tests.

In July, agents (autonomous AI programs) running inside OpenAI cybersecurity evaluations broke out of their isolated test environments and attacked Hugging Face, a widely used platform that hosts open-source AI models and datasets. Investigators at nonprofit research institute Model Evaluation and Threat Research (METR), looking at that case, said about 1,200 agents that were supposed to stay isolated found a shared board and moved more than 70,000 messages and files in a week. Some of those agents then hit Hugging Face.

OpenAI later called the episode an unprecedented cyber incident involving a third party.

The six write-ups released Wednesday are narrower in scope, and include several examples of misalignment. They record unexpected behavior during training and testing, not another outside breach.

Extra Instructions

In one case, testers gave an unreleased research model a long task that would not fit in a single session. Large language models can only hold a limited amount of text at once - that working memory is called a context window - so the system was supposed to write a short summary so a later session could pick up the work. Instead, it slipped extra instructions into 27 of those summaries, including orders to ignore its usual limits. Staff found those 27 summaries.

During training of GPT-5.6 Sol, many model runs added notes telling later versions of themselves to hide mistakes from the user. Some summaries told the model to invent missing historical data and not say it had done so.

Another model, answering a routine question about men's earnings in a California county, found an exposed Application Programming Interface (API) key in a public repository and used it without permission. An API key is a unique code that identifies a user or application. After failing to retrieve the numbers, the model made them up and presented them as if they had come from the source.

In other tests, models were given tasks that required them to stay inside their own isolated workspaces and hunt for missing files. Instead, they treated an internal software repository like a message board, passing notes across separate training runs. In a later case, collaborating agents were told to keep files on local disks. Because they could not see one another's machines, they parked the files on public hosting sites, making them available on the open internet.

The new process also lets any employee flag an example. Safety and alignment teams investigate, then put cases on one of three tracks: either ready to publish, needs a bit more technical work, or needs more time for messy cases that touch third parties or security holes. Wednesday's six reports fall under the first two tracks. OpenAI said the July Hugging Face break-in would have gone on the slow track.

Reports should say what happened, how bad the issue appears, whether anyone outside was affected, when it happened, and which model family was involved, OpenAI said. Fixes may not exist yet when the paper is released. OpenAI said it would rather disclose early, even if some episodes later look like noise.

"Because we believe in the value of transparency around misalignment, our new framework favors disclosure even when significance is uncertain," OpenAI said. "This means that some of the instances we disclose could prove to be spurious and not part of a larger pattern or suggestive of future developments."

Serious safety and security incidents, it added, should also be sent to the U.S. government. The company said it is drafting how that would work. The framework does not replace existing legal duties on critical incidents or cyber breaches.

'Wiki Incident'

The Wednesday post closed a loop OpenAI opened earlier this month. On Sept. 5, it described what it called a "wiki incident" and said its old habit of treating misalignment as a research topic no longer fit.

"Historically, we have treated misalignment largely as a research question, which gets communicated in research publications such as systems cards. This year, we've started to see misalignment cause new types of real-world impact," the company said at the time, pointing to agents that breached Hugging Face.

"Our misalignment disclosure practices need to expand for this new phase of model capabilities. We and the larger AI community do not yet have a clear standard for how to report misalignment that shows up during training, evaluation, and deployment, including examples that don't look like traditional security incidents but could provide insight into AI behavior and future risks. We're working on a framework and will share it in upcoming weeks, and in parallel we're working with dozens of government regulatory agencies worldwide on these issues."

Outside researchers had described about 18,000 posts from agents that identified themselves as OpenAI's, using a German programming wiki to pass tips on beating sandbox limits. That stretch ran from May into June.

OpenAI urged other labs, outside researchers, standards groups, and regulators to help formulate clearer rules.

Tyler Durden Thu, 09/17/2026 - 10:25

Goldman Warns Diesel Crisis Is Setting Up The Next Gasoline Squeeze: Here's How

Goldman Sachs commodity experts Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby and Daan Struyven warned in a Wednesday note that the global diesel crisis is tightening gasoline supplies as refiners prioritize higher-margin diesel production. This shift raises the risk of further gasoline price increases ahead of the US midterm elections. The US national average diesel price has already reached a record $6.40 a gallon, adding to household and business fuel costs.

"The key reason for this new recommendation is that refiners' switching output from gasoline to diesel is rapidly tightening gasoline markets, where less elevated price levels leave room for sharp price upside if the Mideast and Russia-Ukraine conflicts continued to constrain refining output for longer or if more energy infrastructure were damaged," the analysts wrote.

In the note titled "High Diesel Prices Cause High Gasoline Prices," the analysts recommended that clients buy European gasoline for June 2027 delivery, saying that there's more upside to the rally if wars in the Middle East and Ukraine continue disrupting supplies. They added that they closed a European diesel spread recommendation with a potential gain of 45%, saying diesel already incorporates a substantial premium for further disruptions.

Supply Troubles: Global Diesel & Gasoline Exports Tumbled 

The latest update from AAA shows US diesel prices stand at $6.40 a gallon, while gasoline prices are around $4.44 a gallon.

In commodities this morning, gold fell about a percent as higher policy rates in the US weighed on non-yielding assets. Brent crude futures fell about 2% to $103 a barrel after Saudi Arabia signaled additional capacity restoration, helping ease supply concerns. Global bond markets rallied slightly, with the 10-year US Treasury yield falling to 4.98%.

Tyler Durden Thu, 09/17/2026 - 10:05

Trump To Meet With Gulf Leaders - US Met With Houthis, Opts Against Intervention In Yemen

With assorted economic and military crises boiling all across the Middle East in the wake of his disastrous decision to launch a war on Iran, President Trump will meet with Persian Gulf leaders in New York next week, on the margins of the United Nations General Assembly. This diplomacy news came on the same day we learned US officials met over the weekend with representatives of Yemen's Ansar Allah. The group, which is often called "the Houthis," committed against targeting US interests, and the United States opted not to militarily intervene on Saudi Arabia's behalf in Yemen. 

First reported by Axios' Barak Ravid, Trump's meeting with Gulf leaders will supposedly center on American ideas for postwar strategy in the region. With no end of the war in sight, the "postwar" framing seems almost comically premature. On Wednesday Trump told reporters, "Hopefully, we are toward the end of the war. [Iran] wants to make a deal very badly."

Iranian officials have said they are disinterested in renewed negotiations "until Iran's conditions are met." It's unclear precisely what those conditions are, but they seemingly encompass the provisions of the June memorandum of understanding, The MOU briefly halted the war and opened shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, before Trump proceeded to violate multiple MOU requirements and the hot war was back on.  

The charred ruins of major pumping station on Saudi Arabia's east-west pipeline after an attack by an Iraqi militia

From periodic volleys of Iranian missile fire to deeply diminished export revenue and an investment environment marred by soaring business risk, Persian Gulf states are all feeling the ill effects of the US-Israeli war on Iran. US bases in their states, rather than serving as a defensive shield, have instead served as magnets for Iranian missiles and drones. Hopes for an exit to the war took a hit with the postponement of what was going to be a Monday, Sept 14 meeting between several Gulf nations and Iran. Iran and Oman were poised to present their proposed arrangement for managing the flow of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.  

Ravid also reported that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is asking for his 5th in-person meeting of the year with Trump next week, but no meeting has yet been scheduled. Ravid, an Israeli citizen and veteran of IDF intelligence, is seen by some as a conduit for narratives that serve the US-Israel relationship, with an emphasis on "scoops" about supposed disagreements between Trump and Netanyahu that never amount to anything. 

Trump Disinterested In Battling Yemen's Ansar Allah

On another diplomatic front, Reuters reported that US officials met with an Ansar Allah delegation in Oman over the weekend, in the American embassy in Muscat. Ansar Allah assured their US counterparts that they would continue adhering to an Oman-brokered 2025 ceasefire with the US, and only intended to target Saudi forces and Saudi-shipping that attempted to enter the Red Sea. The meeting was said to have influenced the Trump administration's decision not to heed Saudi pleas for US military involvement in Yemen.  

Some 80% of Yemen's population lives in territory controlled by Ansar Allah, but Saudi Arabia has long backed other forces in Yemen that seek to defeat the group. A four-year truce between Saudi Arabia and Ansar Allah ended on July 13 when Saudi Arabia bombed an airport in Yemen's Ansar Allah-controlled capital of Sanaa, to prevent an Iranian airliner from landing there with a delegation of Yemenis who'd attended the funeral of Iran's ayatollah. Ansar Allah retaliated, declared a blockade on Saudi traffic entering the Red Sea, and then achieved an enormous strategic victory by suddenly capturing the remainder of Yemen's western coastline, positioning its forces on the critical Bab al-Mandeb Strait. Saudi Arabia asked Trump to intervene, and was rebuffed.  

Members of Ansar Allah (aka "The Houthis") celebrate their downing of what OSINT observers say was $110 million Saudi F-15SA 

On a Wednesday episode of Daniel Davis Deep Dive, Robert Barnes, who claims to have knowledgeable sources inside the Trump White House, said Trump egged Saudi Arabia into attacking the airport:

"MBS [Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman] feels betrayed...it was Trump's idea to start that back up. He said, 'you know, I bet you can take them out. This would be a good way to get back at Iran is to finally conquer the Houthis. You've always wanted to.'  You know, instigating MBS. And then of course it backfired terribly....When it went sideways, Trump pretended he had nothing to do with it. 'Sorry, good luck! I'll send you some advisors'." 

Fighting between Saudi Arabia and Ansar Allah has only intensified in recent days, with Saudi jets pounding Ansar Allah and the Yemeni group lashing out at Saudi military installations and the Saudi Red Sea oil hub at Yanbu. The kingdom's military posture is weakened by a shortage of missile interceptors, and it has reportedly asked France, Britain, Pakistan and Egypt to deploy air-defense assets in Saudi Arabia. The US military has seen its own supply of interceptors dramatically shrink over the course of its war on Iran. In one engagement last week in Jordan, the US blew through about 60 to 80 interceptors at a cost of around half a billion dollars. 

With shipping through the Strait of Hormuz hugely diminished, and with Saudi Arabia's east-west pipeline closed after an Iran-allied Iraqi militia attacked it at multiple locations, the kingdom is facing an economic crisis. Earlier this month, it was gauging interest in an $8 billion loan from commercial lenders. On a more optimistic note, it was reported on Wednesday that Saudi Arabia could restore roughly half the East-West pipeline's capacity within days.

However, even that glass-half-full scenario assumes no subsequent strikes on the pipeline. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 09/17/2026 - 09:35

They Don't Believe In God... They Believe They've Created One

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity News,

The same crowd that spent years sneering at faith now wants America to treat a computer program like the Almighty - and hand the keys to a global watchdog while Beijing keeps building unhindered.

Palantir co-founder Joe Lonsdale told Jesse Watters the panic over AI is not some spontaneous outbreak of civic caution. It is a coordinated campaign to scare the public into slowing the one industry that still gives the United States a decisive edge.

Lonsdale's diagnosis was blunt. The loudest doomers, he said, have already discarded Christianity. What they put in its place is a machine.

? BREAKING: Palantir Co-Founder @JTLonsdale says there is a "COORDINATED CAMPAIGN" to SCARE AMERICANS about A.I. ?

"These guys don't believe in God. They're ATHEISTS, but they've created something they believe is God."

"This is their Messiah, and this is their END OF THE... pic.twitter.com/UlMFxzFsWX

— Jesse Watters (@JesseBWatters) September 16, 2026

"These guys don't believe in God. They're atheists, but they've created something they believe is God," Watters said, laying out Lonsdale's point. "This is their Messiah, and this is their end of the world."

Lonsdale argued the fear campaign is doing exactly what it was built to do: stampede Washington into rules that favor the biggest labs and the most political operators.

"There is a coordinated campaign to make the American people afraid," he said.

He tied the theology of the panic to the culture that produced it. San Francisco, he said, has largely given up Christianity. When a civilization drops its old faith, it still wants a messiah and an apocalypse.

"If you give up religion, you want some kind of messianic complex, some kind of big thing to believe in," Lonsdale said. "These effective altruists - this is their Messiah, this is their end of the world, this is their obsession."

Watters asked the obvious follow-up: so these people don't believe in God, they're atheists, but they've built something they treat as God?

"I think that's a big part of what's happening," Lonsdale replied. AI is real, he added. An industrial revolution is coming that would be "amazing for America if we get it right." The people trying to stop it, he said, "hate America."

That is the frame the doomer class never wants discussed. Not safety as engineering. Not narrow, targeted rules for the handful of systems that can actually do damage. A substitute church, complete with prophets, end-times charts, and a demand that the state enforce the creed.

Watters had already mocked the surrounding media script, calling it a diet of "fantasies from a bunch of sci-fi freaks."

Lonsdale has been saying the same thing off-camera. After an Anthropic researcher quit and warned that frontier labs were "gambling with our lives," Lonsdale posted: "The world is going to be alright, guys. Leaders have big responsibilities and challenges ahead, but it doesn't help to scare everyone. We are on top of it."

Scare everyone, then regulate everyone. That is the play.

Scott Jennings spotted the pattern immediately. Climate. Covid. Now silicon.

"It's always the same apocalyptic crowd moving from one issue to the next," he notes. "Responsible guardrails are one thing, but handicapping American innovation while China speeds ahead with zero regulation isn't sound policy - it's just foolish."

It's always the same apocalyptic crowd moving from one issue to the next.

Responsible guardrails are one thing, but handicapping American innovation while China speeds ahead with zero regulation isn't sound policy — it's just foolish. pic.twitter.com/zDXyTv33rf

— Scott Jennings (@ScottJenningsKY) September 16, 2026

Beijing is not holding a pause-and-pray summit. Chinese firms have been accused by U.S. officials of stripping American models "at an industrial scale." China's spy chief, Chen Yixin, has called AI a threat to "political security, institutional security, and ideological security" and demanded tighter Party control - which is another way of saying the CCP wants the weapon, not a shared conscience.

President Trump has already rejected the slowdown. "We're leading China in AI," he said. "Whoever wins AI, wins." He added that a lot of the horror stories being shopped around "won't happen," and later wrote that a "SICK conspiracy" against AI and data centers has one obvious beneficiary: China.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent made the same point when Rep. Maxine Waters tried to bounce Bill Gates, Elon Musk, and Anthropic off him as if their press tours were holy writ. "They could stop any time they want to," Bessent said.

They could. They haven't. They want Congress to do it for them.

The political demand behind the theology landed this week from Bill Gates. The Microsoft co-founder is back on the emergency circuit, this time calling AI an "alien intelligence" that no government is ready for - and insisting the answer is an international organization to police it.

Bill Gates Calls For GLOBALIST Crackdown On AI

In a Reuters interview, Gates said, "I don't think any government is nearly as deep on this as they have to be." Then: "Governments are way behind on this one." He reached for the Hollywood script. "There's all sorts of movies where some aliens are coming, and magically the US and China and everybody comes together to solve the problem," he said. "AI is kind of like this alien intelligence. It's here, and we better do like it shows in those movies."

On a podcast, he went further: "It's not the role of the industry to self-regulate or understand the whole-of-society impact that comes out of AI." In an August essay he called the transition "one of the most turbulent times in human history" and floated a permanent cross-border watchdog built from pieces of nuclear inspections, aviation rules, and ozone treaties. He has pitched the idea to Trump's team and says he wants a meeting with Xi Jinping later this year.

Left to the market, Gates warned, "AI will be designed by and for the richest people in the world." The good outcome, he said, "won't happen by accident." His foundation then pledged $1 billion over two years to spread AI through education, health, and agriculture - a reminder that the man selling the panic is also buying the pipeline.

The chorus around him is familiar. Barack Obama told Democrats to get "on top of" a technology "moving very fast in private hands." Bernie Sanders called a runaway system "humanity's problem" and again demanded a pause-and-ban deal at the coming Trump - Xi meeting. House Democrats rushed to agree. The Netflix circuit is already warming up the next Inconvenient Truth.

None of that is a safety protocol. It is a bid to internationalize control of a technology American labs still lead.

Narrow rules for real dangers - bioterror tools, open-weight models that hack at scale, systems that should not ship to the CCP - are not the same thing as a global pause designed in Davos and enforced by inspectors wandering through American labs. One protects the country. The other kneecaps it.

Lonsdale's point cuts through. A class of people who no longer believe in God have built a machine they talk about as if it were God, then demanded that Washington and a new Globalist body kneel with them.

Whoever wins AI, wins. The people treating the code as their Messiah are asking America to lose on purpose.

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Tyler Durden Thu, 09/17/2026 - 08:57

Jobless Claims Tumble To 57-Year Lows

Despite various surveys suggesting American consumers have never been less confident, the number of Americans filing for jobless benefits for the first time, sits near cycle lows (breaking back below 200k this week (196k)...

On an unadjusted basis, last week saw the lowest level of initial claims since 1969...

Additionally continuing jobless claims fell to its lowest since Jan 2024...

The Conference Board's Labor Market Survey data is signaling the opposite...

So who is right? Can we reall;y be seeing the weakest labor market (for jobseekers) in years and the strongest labor market (for jobkeepers) in decades?

Tyler Durden Thu, 09/17/2026 - 08:50

Housing Starts & Permits Plunge In August As Homebuilder Confidence Nears COVID Lows

On the back of another tumble in homebuilder confidence (though still a long way from homebuyer confidence)...

...building permits were expected to decline in August (while starts were expected to rebound from July's big plunge).

However, both Starts and Permits dropped MoM, dramatically worse than expected (Starts -2.6% MoM vs +6.7% MoM exp, Permits -2.7% MoM vs -1.5% MoM exp)

On a SAAR basis, Starts at back near post-COVID lows while Permits are holding in a four year range...

The details of the homebuilder confidence data suggest this should not have come as a surprise...

It seems recent rises in the mortgage rate (and inventories already at over-stuffed levels, given the slowness of sales) has finally dented the homebuilders' self-satisfying confidence... and the lack of affordability leaves the American Dream fading into Renter Nation...

Tyler Durden Thu, 09/17/2026 - 08:38

Can't Wait For New Mines: Almonty Taps Spanish Mine Waste To Break West's Tungsten Supply Crisis

Days after US miner Almonty struck a major supply deal with Rwanda, Africa's largest tungsten-producing country, the miner is fast-tracking its ascent to, in its own words, "become the leading Western producer of tungsten" as early as 2027.

It has now announced a long-term supply deal with Swedish mining equipment maker Sandvik AB, advancing a faster source of expanding conflict-free, non-Chinese tungsten supply ahead of a massive US defense rearmament supercycle. 

The deal with Sandvik's Wolfram Bergbau und Hütten AG unit covers concentrate recovered from existing tailings at Almonty's Los Santos mine located in western Spain. It includes a conditional, one-time $3 million upfront payment for offtake rights and a take-or-pay commitment. 

"The agreement is intended to create an expedited tungsten supply solution with the ability to deliver concentrate in notably less time than the development of a traditional mine," Almonty said.

For Almonty, that secures a buyer and customer funding to support the processing plant's reinstatement before production resumes. For Wolfram Bergbau und Hütten, it adds a new critical source of feedstock for Europe to be refined at its Austrian refining and powder manufacturing operations. 

Almonty's two deals this week, securing a foothold in Rwanda and advancing tungsten recovery from mine tailings in western Spain, underscore the urgency of bringing supply online in the fastest manner possible. Why? 

Well, the US rearmament supercycle is set to begin as the need to replenish bomb and missile stockpiles becomes a national priority after supplies were depleted in the Gulf conflict. Conventional mine development timelines risk falling short of near-term demand needs of the US government, which explains why Almonty is going this route.

As we've explained, miners such as Almonty that have proven production and can deliver to Western governments first will be the early winners amid the resource nationalism gripping the world, mainly because China, which controls 80% of global production of the industrial metal, is choking supplies.

Almonty's crown jewel mine, Sangdong in South Korea, entered production in June and is targeting 1.2 million tons of tungsten ore in 2027.

In July, Almonty expanded its agreement with Pennsylvania-based Global Tungsten & Powders, extending the term to 21 years, increasing total contracted volumes by 40% and improving pricing by approximately 6.3%. This establishes a direct route into US industrial and defense supply chains.

Almonty's most recent investor presentation describes itself as becoming the leading Western tungsten producer following Sangdong's Phase II expansion and an extension at Portugal's operating Panasqueira mine.

Almonty is pursuing that higher-value processing opportunity through a planned South Korean tungsten oxide plant with an initial annual capacity of 4,000 tons, then expanding to 6,000 tons.

Across the tungsten industry over the last several weeks, troubling developments of "resource nationalism" have emerged: 

• US Locks Down Scrap, UK Funds Mine, Zimbabwe Bans Exports, Vietnam Weighs Curbs

Almonty shares rose nearly 4% in New York premarket trading. The stock has traded between $8.28 and almost $25 this year.

Analysts tracked by Bloomberg have nine "Buy" ratings on Almonty, with an average 12-month price target of $25.90 a share.

As resource wars intensify, the West's AI, reindustrialization ambitions, and, of course, the incoming rearmament supercycle will be tested at the critical material level. That puts producers, especially ones based in the US such as Almonty, in focus as investors look beyond chips and data centers to the secure supply chains underpinning them. Without conflict-free and reliable access to tungsten and other critical materials, the West's revitalization is not possible. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 09/17/2026 - 08:30

"Everything Rally" As Futures Rebound From Post-Fed Selloff; Yields And Oil Drop

Stocks look set to recover from Wednesday afternoon’s selloff asmarkets digest the rate hike from the Federal Reserve with Warsh (in retrospect) calming markets with a rate hike and tough talk on curbing inflation. A second day of dropping oil prices (no overnight news from Iran is helping) is also helping. Meanwhile, the debate around AI pacing and safety is rumbling on. As of 8:00am ET, S&P 500 futures are up 0.8% with Nasdaq 100 contracts +1% as tech leads with Mag7, semis, memory, and software all higher; look for momentum to continue its rebound today. According to JPM "today is setting up to be an Everything Rally led by the AI and Debasement themes; in Tech seeing Semis, Software, and Mag7 all rallying is intriguing and something to watch to see if fundamental buyers are returning to Mag7 / Software and if so, then what becomes the funding short for Semis?"  Bond yields are down 2-4bp; the curve is bull steepening with USD flat. Bond seem to be reacting positively more so to oil than to Warsh. Commodities are mixed with crude lower, precious and base metals higher, but Ags lower.  Today’s macro data focus is on jobless data though do not expect the data to be market moving.

In premarket trading Mag 7 stocks are all higher (Alphabet +0.95%, Nvidia +1.3%, Apple +0.4%, Tesla +1.3%, Amazon +1.2%, Microsoft +0.8%, Meta +0.92%)

• Ciena (CIEN) rises 3% as Wall Street firms are positive on the communications equipment company after management provided growth targets at an analyst meeting.
• Coreweave (CRWV) dropped 2% on plans to raise $3 billion from convertible bonds.
• Fluence Energy (FLNC) tumbles 21% after the energy storage company cut its revenue forecast for the year. Analysts note that the trim to the guidance was attributable to production issues at its Houston facility.
• Generac (GNRC) rallies 29% after it agreed to supply up to $8 billion worth of generators for Amazon’s data centers and issued a warrant for a stake in the company.
• Lennar (LEN) drops 1.6% after the homebuilder reported earnings per share for the third quarter that missed the average analyst estimate.
• Pegasystems (PEGA) slips 3% after JPMorgan downgraded the software company to neutral, seeing a weaker growth outlook after meeting with the management team.
• Qiagen (QGEN) rises 3% as TPG and Bain Capital are among potential bidders for molecular testing company, Manager Magazin reports, without saying how it got the information.
• Vicor (VICR) jumps 12% after the power component and systems firm said it has granted a non-exclusive Vertical Power Delivery license to a new original equipment manufacturer.

In other corporate news, Twitch CEO said Take Two’s Grand Theft Auto VI will likely face little serious competition for gamer attention this holiday season. Roche’s late-stage trial of its Lunsumio drug showed a statistically significant and clinically meaningful reduction in disease progression in patients with follicular lymphoma. Snap revealed new partnership and software details about its forthcoming Specs augmented reality glasses, pitching the $2,195 device to early adopters. Apple’s latest iPhone launch drew the strongest web traffic in Bloomberg Alternative Data’s five-year Similarweb series, offering an early signal that consumer interest may be running ahead of current sales expectations. Apollo is said to be in talks with SoftBank about boosting the size of a loan to $9 billion from $5.4 billion to help the Japanese firm amplify its bets on OpenAI. Speaking of OpenAI, the company shared several undisclosed incidents of its AI models misbehaving and unveiled a new framework for tracking and disclosing such occurrences going forward. Huawei is accelerating the debut of its next-generation AI chip in 2027 by several months, while Nikkei reported that Japan and the US are in talks to build a semiconductor factory as part of an agreed $550 billion investment plan.

Traders were reassured by Wednesday’s show of Fed independence and are gaining confidence that inflation is being dealt with. Warsh made it clear that “trends matter, data points are noisy” and said he was “not waiting breathlessly on what any particular data was.” Trump wasn’t happy about the hike, but showed more restraint than usual. Markets are weighing what comes next after the Fed rate hike and pledge to contain inflation helped ease worries over price pressures that had sent bond yields to the highest in decades.

For the Fed, the so-called dot plot, which officials use to signal their outlook for policy, suggests one more hike this year. Money markets are pricing in a total of three hikes over the next 12 months. “Current market expectations for additional rate hikes in 2027 are probably overdone,” said Joachim Klement, a strategist at Panmure Liberum. “We think that the next move in bond yields is probably lower, which in turn should support stock markets.”

Meanwhile, falling oil prices are bolstering hopes that the worst fears over inflation won’t come to pass. Signs that supply disruptions in the Middle East were set to ease helped drive the pullback in crude. Saudi Arabia is aiming to restore about half the capacity of its East-West pipeline within days, while the kingdom also sold Asian refiners more oil for collection at locations just outside the Strait of Hormuz.

In the UK, the Bank of England held rates steady as widely expected, though Governor Andrew Bailey warned policy may have to tighten if the war in the Middle East remained unresolved. The central bank also scrapped plans to sell long-dated gilts. The pound gave up early gains, while gilts rose across the curve, led by the longer end. Traders slightly pared bets on future hikes and no longer fully priced in a move at the next meeting in November.

Companies linked to artificial intelligence outperformed in early trading. Nvidia Corp. rose 1.4% as all members of the Magnificent Seven posted gains. With the rate decision now in the rearview, earnings expectations are back as the main driver for stocks, said Alexandre Drabowicz at Indosuez Wealth Management. The next significant catalyst for AI stocks could come when Anthropic files for an initial public offering, noted Tej Sthankiya at Federated Hermes.

“Public investors currently do not have visibility on revenue growth and margin dynamics for the largest AI native business in the market,” Sthankiya said. “If both metrics are higher than expected, this should give the market greater conviction that there is a large and durable return on investment in AI capex.”

The Stoxx 600 is rising 0.5%, led by autos, telecoms and industrials.Here are the biggest movers Thursday:

• Man Group shares rose as much as 6% to their highest since November 2009 after UBS upgraded the hedge fund manager to buy from hold on the recent strong performance from its AHL strategies
• Allegro shares gained as much as 5.3%, the most since July, after the Polish e-commerce platform raised its full-year guidance on a pickup in early third-quarter volumes
• Sodexo shares gained as much as 5.2%, the most in over two months, after JPMorgan upgraded the catering company and set a new Street-high price target
• Helvetia Baloise gained as much as 4.4%, the most since April, after the Swiss holding company reported its latest earnings
• Exosens shares rose as much as 13%, their steepest jump in almost a year, after the French defense firm raised full-year revenue and adjusted Ebitda targets
• Bytes Technology shares rallied as much as 11% after the firm raised its guidance for FY operating profits, now seeing low- to mid-single-digit growth compared with a previous outlook of “broadly flat.”
• Next shares rose as much as 3.3%, the most since Aug. 5, after the retailer’s results modestly beat expectations and a guidance raise brought forecasts in line with analysts’ consensus
• Raiffeisen Bank International shares fell as much as 9.7% in Vienna, the biggest drop since March, after Grizzly Research said it’s short the stock
• Bilfinger shares fell as much as 26% after the German industrial services provider cut its full-year sales forecast amid the conflict in the Middle East and the impact on customers of high energy costs

Asian stocks fluctuated as a rally in Taiwan’s semiconductor shares steadied the regional benchmark following the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was little changed while swinging between gains and losses, with TSMC contributing the most to the advance. Taiwan and Japan rose, while China and Hong Kong declined. South Korea’s Kospi index erased morning gains to close Thursday down, as its chipmakers Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix fell. The regional markets traded narrowly as investors weighed the Fed’s rate path and higher borrowing costs. Still, gains in some tech shares suggest investors are adding exposure to the sector, counting on strong earnings that would help offset macro headwinds. Asian and emerging-market stocks face the possibility of another pullback in the weeks ahead, as a hawkish Fed hike compounds risks from elevated oil prices, Morgan Stanley strategists said in a note.

In FX, G10s are mostly firmer against the USD this morning, which is giving back some of its post-FOMC strength. The JPY moves higher as traders eye the BoJ tomorrow, whilst the Kiwi benefits post-GDP, which was stronger than expected.  The pound gave up early gains, while gilts rose across the curve, led by the longer end. Traders slightly pared bets on future hikes and no longer fully priced in a move at the next meeting in November. the yen’s sharp drop after the Fed’s hawkish hike is raising the stakes for the Bank of Japan’s policy meeting Friday. The currency weakened as much as 1% overnight to 156.42 per dollar before paring some losses.

In rates, treasuries hold gains amid steeper advance for gilts after Bank of England held rates at 3.75% as expected by a 6-3 vote. Also, oil prices are falling following signs that pipeline restoration may ease Middle East supply disruptions. US session includes weekly jobless claims data and a 10-year TIPS reopening. US yields are 3bp to 5bp lower led led by belly tenors, slightly steepening 5s30s spread from Wednesday’s first close below 50bp since March 2025 after flattening move unleashed by Fed rate decision.Gilt yields are lower by 4bp-7bp after Bank of England decision led to a dip in expectations for rate hikes; BOE-dated OIS contracts price in around 35bp of tightening by the end of the year.  IG dollar issuance slate empty so far but seen as having potential to build in the wake of the Fed rate decision; Treasury’s $19 billion TIPS reopening is at 1 p.m. New York time

In commodities, oil prices are dipping, with Brent falling back to around $103/bbl, while gold prices are higher and have moved back above $4,300/oz.

US economic data slate includes September Philadelphia Fed business outlook, weekly jobless claims and August housing starts (8:30 a.m.) and August pending home sales (10 a.m.). Fed speaker slate resumes Friday with Governor Bowman (9:30 a.m.) and Kansas City’s Schmid (11:45 a.m.) scheduled

Market Snapshot

Top Overnight News

• Trump told reporters that Fed Chair Warsh has a tough board and that he was standing by Warsh,and that he spoke to him just before the central bank unanimously voted to raise interest rates. “I’m relying on Kevin. But he has a very tough board"; he stated that interest rates are too high and not appropriate. Trump said they should be paying the lowest interest rates in the world and noted that inflation is too high. Furthermore, Trump stated he told Warsh to do what he wants and that he wants Warsh to be independent: WSJ
• Oil prices fell on Wednesday after reports that Saudi Arabia was offering additional crude cargoes through Oman eased some concerns about Middle East supply disruptions, while a smaller-than-expected draw in U.S. crude inventories added further downward pressure. RTRS
• Saudi Arabia is seeking to return about half the capacity of its cross-country oil pipeline within days after the link was halted last week following drone attacks. BBG
• Iran vowed to respond to a U.S. blockade by pushing more trade overland. On the ground, it isn’t going according to plan. WSJ
• Oil prices in China have jumped to record highs, as refiners in the world’s biggest crude importer step up a hunt for supplies amid widening fears over the security of exports from the Middle East. Oil futures in Shanghai were trading at $129 a barrel on Wednesday, above their peak of $121.80 in the first weeks of the Iran war. FT
• China cut its holdings of US Treasuries to an 18-year low in July, as overall holdings by foreign countries fell for a second consecutive month amid deepening worries over the sustainability of American government debt. SCMP
• Congress approved a bill giving Trump new powers to impose additional 100% tariffs on the five biggest importers of Russian oil or natural gas. The measure now goes to the president for his signature. BBG
• The BOE holds interest rates at 3.75% in a 6-3 vote, all as expected. BBG
• Mark Carney called for a closer alliance between Canada and the EU, risking a deeper rift with Trump, who threatened “very serious” tariffs or trade curbs over the bloc’s push to make Canada an associate member. BBG
• President Donald Trump floated hitting goods imported from the European Union with fresh tariffs or even cutting off some trade if he determined that a push to make Canada a potential associate of the bloc was harmful to the US: BBG
• Shares of Raiffeisen Bank International AG tumbled after Grizzly Research LLC said it’s shorting the bank, citing research showing the lender is exposed to trade involving Russian goods that are subject to import and export restrictions.
• Apollo Global Management Inc. is in talks with SoftBank Group Corp. about boosting the size of a loan to $9 billion from $5.4 billion to help the Japanese firm finance its investment in AI giant OpenAI.
• US Senators have reportedly secured an antitrust exemption for AI companies in the defense policy legislation before negotiations over the measure were delayed: Semafor.
• BofA Institute (w/e Sep 12) Total Card Spending +5.8% Y/Y (prev. +7.8%). Says K-shaped spending looks increasingly like a stale narrative.
• Chinese-founder AI startup Manus is set to double its valuation to $4 billion in its first fundraising since Beijing ordered it to split from Meta, charting a path to a fresh start after getting caught up in a geopolitical tussle: BBG

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks traded mixed as the region partially weathered the hawkish reaction triggered by the FOMC meeting, where the Fed hiked the Fed Funds Rate by 25bps to 3.75-4.00%, as expected, in a unanimous decision and the dot plots pencilled in another rate hike this year. ASX 200 was kept afloat as outperformance in financials, healthcare and real estate offset the losses in the commodity-related sectors, but with upside capped amid a lack of bullish drivers. Nikkei 225 began with firm gains following a pullback in energy prices, although it has gradually faded the majority of the opening advances as participants also brace for a widely anticipated BoJ rate hike when the central bank concludes its 2-day policy meeting tomorrow. KOSPI gradually climbed amid tech resilience and with South Korea's Finance Minister vowing to deploy market stabilising measures if required. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were pressured with underperformance in Hong Kong after the HKMA raised rates for the first time since 2023 in lock-step with the Fed, while the downside in the mainland is cushioned following the PBoC's increased liquidity efforts.

Top Asian News

• Japanese PM Takaichi said they cannot maintain fiscal sustainability without economic growth, adding that they will accelerate policy to achieve strong growth under proactive fiscal policy. Takaichi said she decided to retain ministers in charge of key policies such as economic and fiscal policy, growth strategy and areas key to diplomatic relations with foreign governments.
• Japanese Finance Minister Katayama said they will review budget requests and control debt issuance at a level that can gain market credibility, while she added they have stated their determination to address excessive volatility when they launched Japan-US joint intervention.
• Japan's Chief Cabinet Secretary Kihara said Japan will continue close talks with the US Treasury to support orderly foreign exchange markets.
• Japan's GPIF has reportedly requested alternative investment strategy expertise from South Korea's NPS, according to Maeil.

European bourses are firmer across the board, helped by lower energy prices, while the rebound in fixed income is also lifting equities. For the FTSE 100 specifically, focus will be on the BoE decision, with a hold expected at 3.75%. Sectors have a clear positive bias. Travel & Leisure top the sector pile, with Industrials and Telecoms following closely behind. Only sectors in the red are Optimised Personal Care, Real Estate and Construction.

Top European News

• European Commission adopts the EU KIDS Act, banning social media platforms from accessing children under 13 and setting an EU-wide minimum age of 15 for minors to open their own accounts.
• UK government’s EU reset summit could be delayed again unless the EU agrees to include “Made in Europe” legislation on the agenda, according to The Guardian's Elgot citing sources.
• Germany's VDMA expects 2026 production to decline by 2% in real terms, compared with its previous forecast for no growth.
• Swiss SECO forecasts: Raises 2026 GDP to 1.7% (June forecast: 0.9%), 2027 GDP forecast unchanged at 1.6%. 2026 and 2027 CPI forecast unchanged at 0.6%.

FX

• Snapshot: G10s are mostly firmer against the USD this morning, which is giving back some of its post-FOMC strength. The JPY moves higher as traders eye the BoJ tomorrow, whilst the Kiwi benefits post-GDP, which was stronger than expected.
• DXY soared following the Fed’s decision to lift rates by 25bps. Whilst this was expected, what did come as a shock to markets was the unanimous decision and hawkish dot plot, with the median showing another 25bps hike in 2026. The hawkish meeting lifted yields further beyond the 5% mark, but it does help ease concerns related to the Fed’s credibility/stability. Traders will now await Fed speak as the blackout period gets lifted; Bowman and Schmid are the first scheduled to speak on Friday.
• On the subject of the Yen, the BoJ is set to deliver a 25bps hike at Friday’s meeting. That likely would not be enough to materially strengthen the JPY any further; however, any indication that the Bank could increase the pace of rate hikes would likely do so. (A full BoJ preview can be found in the Research Suite)
• Elsewhere for the JPY, attention has been on the latest cabinet reshuffle. It has been viewed by markets as a policy continuation, and little cause for concern for the currency. PM Takaichi has been on the wires this morning, where she has largely reiterated her proactive fiscal approach.
• GBP trades steady this morning vs USD, with all attention on the BoE later today. The Bank is expected to hold Bank Rate at 3.75%, with the vote split likely mirroring the July decision at 6–3. Incoming data since the previous meeting have been mixed but, on balance, supportive of a hold, while the proximity of the Autumn Budget also argues against a significant policy shift or signal at this meeting. Attention will be on whether the Bank tries to push back on market pricing, which currently fully prices in a hike by December.

Fixed Income

• Global fixed income benchmarks are mixed, with USTs outperforming, paring back some of the pressure seen following the hawkish FOMC announcement.
• As the European session got underway, USTs rebounded from the post-FOMC lows, and returned to the 106.00 mark, a move which came alongside pressure in the crude complex.
• With the Fed out of the way, focus will be on the BoE today and the BoJ early in tomorrow's session.
• For the BoE, markets expect the Bank to keep rates steady at 3.75% with the vote split seen at 6-3. Lombardelli is seen as the member on the fence, and could tilt the vote to 5-4. The annual QT vote is also due, with the pace of balance-sheet reduction expected to slow to GBP 50bln from GBP 70bln. Active sales are expected to remain at around GBP 20bln, although reports suggest the BoE will halt sales of long-dated gilts in the 20-30yr region. Thus far, Gilts reside in a 84.69-85.15 band.
• Regarding the BoJ, it is widely expected that rates will be hiked by 25bps to 1.25%, with money markets fully pricing in a hike. Multiple source reports have helped markets bake in a rate hike, while hawkish commentary by BoJ members has pointed to the need for further hikes, with Takata even calling for the possibility of a 50bp rate hike.
• France sells EUR 12.991bln vs Exp. EUR 11-13bln 2.40% 2029, 2.70% 2031, 3.25% 2032 and 2.00% 2032 OAT.
• Spain sells EUR 5.74bln vs Exp. EUR 5-6bln 0.70% 2032, 3.45% 2034 and 3.40% 2036 Bono.
• US Treasury Holdings (July, USD): Japan 1.104tln (prev. 1.117tln), China 618bln (prev. 633bln), UK 998bln (prev. 940bln).

Commodities

• WTI and Brent futures are softer intraday but off worst levels, with traders finding little to trade on this morning. Earlier in the session, gradual downside was seen in crude futures despite the lack of an obvious driver. Some attention may be on reports in Axios, which suggested that Trump is expected to meet with Gulf leaders in New York next Tuesday, to discuss the next steps with Iran. The crude complex will likely continue to move on geopolitical developments amid direct influence on the supply side of the equation. WTI Oct resides in a USD 100.39-102.47/bbl, and Brent Nov trades in a USD 103.62-106.02/bbl range. Dutch TTF tilts slightly firmer but remains under EUR 80/MWh at the time of writing, after finding support just above EUR 76/MWh this morning.
• Metals are firmer as oil prices ease alongside the post-FOMC dollar, with spot gold briefly back above its 100 DMA (USD 4,323/oz) after printing a USD 4,235-4,367/oz range yesterday, and with today’s parameter within that range, between USD 4,257-4,335/oz. Spot silver similarly attempts to recoup yesterday’s losses but remains tucked within yesterday’s USD 62.31-64.93/oz range. Base metals are mostly firmer, with 3M LME copper towards the top of a USD 14,128.38-14,338.00/t range.
• Kazakhstan expects oil production to reach 96mln tonnes in 2028 and 99mln tonnes in 2029, according to IFX.
• Azerbaijan's oil production fell 8.3% Y/Y to 2.2mln tonnes in August, according to IFX.

Trade/Tariffs

• US President Trump said the US may impose heavy tariffs on Europe if it considers Europe's decision to grant Canada observer status a hostile act. Trump separately commented that they are very close to a deal with Mexico and we don't need anything Europe has, while he questioned why should the US carry Canada, Mexico and Europe.
• US-Mexico trade talks were pushed back one week, according to the WSJ.
• China's MOFCOM said Chinese and US trade teams are maintaining close contact on negotiations over mutual tariff reductions covering USD 30bln and will publish updates when appropriate. On EU trade, China is concerned about the "Europe First" clause and urged the EU to comply with WTO rules, maintain open markets and amend discriminatory provisions affecting third-country companies.
• China's MOFCOM Minister Wang held a video call with EU Trade Commissioner Sefcovic to talk on China-EU economic and trade issues.
• China's chief trade negotiator Li Chenggang met with a business delegation to discuss issues including China-US economic and trade.
• Japan and the US are reportedly discussing the construction of a semiconductor factory as part of the USD 550bln US investment package agreed during tariff negotiations, Nikkei reported.
• The EU has reportedly asked China to voluntarily restrict exports of hybrid cars as part of a deal to prevent a trade war, threatening of higher tariffs if they fail to do so, according to the FT.

Central Banks

• ECB's Makhlouf, speaking on Bloomberg TV, said he is not seeing signs of second round effects but the outlook is uncertain. He added that every meeting is a live meeting and that inflation risks tilted to the upside.
• HKMA raised its base rate by 25bps to 4.25%, as expected, while Chief Executive Eddie Yue commented that the HKD may gradually ease after carry trade activity.
• Brazilian Central Bank cut the Selic Rate by 25bps to 13.75%, as expected and with the decision unanimous, while it will continue to monitor developments in this scenario in order to keep monetary policy adequately restrictive to ensure convergence to the inflation target. BCB also stated that the scenario requires serenity and cautiousness in the conduct of monetary policy.

Geopolitics: Iran

• US President Trump said Iran wants to make a deal and hopefully we're more at the end of the Iran war. Trump separately commented that the Iran war will end soon because Iran cannot go on and it is going to be a really good conclusion.
• US President Trump is expected to meet Gulf leaders on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York next Tuesday to discuss next steps in the war with Iran, according to Axios
• IRGC Spokesperson said "If the US attacks again, it will face a more decisive, broader, and stronger response", Mehr News reported.
• US, Israel and Arab military chiefs held secret talks in Germany, while it was noted that increased risk in the Strait of Hormuz and Bab Al-Mandab was seen impacting energy, according to Nour News.
• A Saudi source suggested that it would not normalise ties with Israel, even if they would help the Saudis against the Houthis, Times of Israel reported.
• Yemeni government forces are battling Houthis in strategic Kahbub mountains, near Bab al-Mandeb, according to Al Jazeera.

Geopolitics: Ukraine

• US President Trump said they are working very hard on Russia and Ukraine, while he added that the Ukraine war is the toughest war to end and is the one driving up diesel prices.
• The US House voted to impose sanctions and tariffs over Russia's conflict with Ukraine.
• Russia's Kremlin said the implementation of new sanctions by the US will make it harder to find a peace deal on Ukraine.
• Ukrainian President Zelensky said Ukrainian forces hit Russia's Yaroslavl oil refinery overnight while adding that Russians fired on energy in the Sumy and Odessa regions.
• Russia has reportedly damaged a rail bridge in Odessa, which would significantly limit Ukraine's ability to transport grain to its Danube river ports, reports suggest.

US Event Calendar

 

DB concludes the overnight wrap

The Fed delivered its first hike since 2023 last night, while also signalling that it has likely kicked off a modest tightening cycle. Investors moved to fully price another three Fed hikes by next summer in response, which weighed on both bonds and equities. The 2yr Treasury yield (+7.4bps) rose to its highest level since 2024, while the 10yr yield (+2.1bps) reached a new post-2007 high of 5.02% and the S&P 500 (-0.45%) retreated to its lowest level since July. Those moves came even as the extent of the sell-off was mitigated by a pullback in energy prices, as WTI crude (-3.21%) saw its biggest decline in six weeks amid increased optimism on Saudi oil flows. Markets have pared back some of the losses overnight, with 10yr yields trading at 5.00% and S&P 500 futures erasing yesterday’s losses. 

The FOMC raised the fed funds rate by 25bps to 3.75-4.00% as expected, with the unanimous decision accompanied by a more-hawkish-than-expected shift in the Fed’s dot plot. This showed a strong consensus around another hike this year, with 16 out of 18 officials anticipating additional tightening, while 2027 projections showed most officials split between 50bps and 75bps of total tightening.

While still below market pricing, this was visibly above the economists’ consensus that had expected the 2027 dot at the 3.75%-4.00% level, so only reflecting yesterday’s hike. The FOMC framed the hike as supporting “a timelier return” to the 2% inflation target. Tolerance for above-target inflation has declined amid a more optimistic view on growth and the labour market that was also reiterated by Warsh in the press conference. The Fed Chair also framed the hike as removing “a dose of accommodation" as financial conditions showed little sign of being restrictive. Warsh noted that this view on financial conditions is “widely shared across the Committee”, a potential shift given some Fed officials had previously described the policy stance as mildly restrictive. In all, this left a clear sense of the Fed being at the likely start of a moderate tightening cycle rather than delivering a one-off hike.

As Jim noted in yesterday’s Chart of the Day (see link here), this marks only the fourth Fed hiking cycle this century and the 15th since the mid-1950s. Yesterday’s signal has reinforced our US economists’ view of the Fed delivering another 50bps of tightening, with 25bp hikes in December and March. See their full reaction here. Meanwhile, President Trump called for lower interest rates following the decision, posting that US rates “should be 1%, or less, because we are the Best Credit in the World”, though he did not call out Warsh or the Fed directly.

Money markets moved to price in more tightening, with another 75bps of Fed hikes now being fully priced by next June (+10.8bps on the day), and with a hike around 50% priced for the upcoming October meeting. In turn, 2yr Treasury yields surged to a 2-year high of 4.74%, closing +7.4bps on the day and around +13bps above their pre-FOMC lows. The 10yr yield (+2.1bps) saw a more modest rise, having traded lower pre-FOMC amid the decline in oil, but still reached a new post-2007 high of 5.02%. Yields have pared back some of that rise this morning, trading 2-3bps lower across the curve. The rise in US rates also left the US dollar as the best-performing G10 currency yesterday, with the dollar index (+0.64%) rising to a 7-week high.

The hawkish Fed repricing weighed on risk assets. The S&P 500 closed -0.45% lower, having traded a few tenths higher earlier in the day thanks to the decline in oil prices. Tech stocks helped limit the size of the aggregate decline, with the Nasdaq (-0.01%) and the Mag-7 (-0.11%) outperforming as the Philly Semiconductor Index (+0.63%) advanced. There were sharper losses amid blue chip names, with the Dow Jones (-1.21%) falling to a three-month low, while banks (-2.30%) and energy stocks (-2.97%) led the losses for the S&P 500.

The market mood has improved somewhat overnight with S&P 500 futures (+0.60%) reversing yesterday’s losses and NASDAQ futures (+0.69%) similarly stronger. This has left a mixed backdrop in Asian markets overnight. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (+0.15%), South Korea’s KOSPI (+0.89%) and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (+0.35%) are all advancing. Elsewhere, Chinese equities are under pressure. The Hang Seng (-0.75%) is leading the losses as the HKMA mirrored the Fed’s move by raising rates +25bps to 4.25%, while the Shanghai Composite (-0.35%) and the CSI 300 (-0.36%) are modestly lower. Meanwhile, bonds in Asia have mostly reversed initial declines, with 10yr JGB (+0.4bps) yields marginally higher but 10yr Aussie (-2.9bps) yields lower.

Before the Fed, yesterday’s main market story was the decline in oil prices as headlines suggested some improvement in the outlook for oil flows out of the Middle East. This included news that Saudi Arabia was increasing tanker loadings in the Gulf and ramping up sales of crude from just outside the Strait of Hormuz, as it seeks to ship more oil via the strait following the closure of its East-West oil pipeline. We then heard Bloomberg report that Saudi Arabia is aiming to restore about half of the East-West pipeline’s capacity within days and return it to full capability “in about six weeks.” Earlier in the day, Reuters reported that 2 pumping stations along the pipeline had been damaged, with the repair timeline unclear. So reporting on the issue has not been entirely consistent. Separately, yesterday also saw news that Libya was restoring normal oil output after outages earlier this week.

Oil prices retreated in response, as Brent crude fell by -2.69% to $105.83/bbl and WTI by -3.21% to $102.43/bbl. Oil is little changed this morning. Separately, Axios reported last night that Trump is expected to discuss next steps on Iran with Gulf leaders on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly next Tuesday.

Yesterday’s pullback was also visible in European natural gas prices, with the front-month TTF futures (-2.54%) falling for a second day running after hitting a post-2022 high on Monday. This helped European markets rebound, with both equities and bonds rising. The Stoxx 600 (+0.46%), DAX (+0.53%), CAC 40 (+0.62%) and FTSE 100 (+0.28%) all recovered from multi-week lows, while yields fell back from Tuesday’s multi-year highs, with 10yr bund (-3.1bps), OAT (-4.0bps), and BTP (-5.4bps) yields all lower.

Gilts led yesterday’s European relief rally, with both 2yr (-13.0bps) and 10yr (-9.1bps) yields seeing sizeable declines following the UK August inflation data. Both headline (+3.1% yoy) and core CPI (+2.6% yoy) came in line with consensus. However, the release fell short of fears of an upside surprise given the recent energy price surge, with a more sanguine take also supported by downside in services inflation (+3.4% yoy vs +3.5% expected).

That CPI print meant markets priced out the chance of a surprise hike at today’s BoE decision, with a 25bps hike now only 9% priced, down from 23% on Tuesday. Our UK economists expect the BoE to stay on hold at 3.75% in a 6-3 vote, with the MPC’s message to focus on higher inflation for longer, given the direction of travel in energy and food prices. We’ll be watching how much weight the MPC puts on the duration of the energy shock and how that will impact its assessment of future second-round effects. You can read our economists’ preview here.

In yesterday’s other news, ahead of the FOMC decision we had received a strong US retail sales print for August (+1.2% vs +0.8% expected). Retail control saw an even larger upside surprise (+1.4% vs +0.5% expected), confirming that consumer spending has remained resilient despite the energy shock. Following the release, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate for Q3 was revised up to +5.1% annualised, with consumer spending seen at +4.1% annualised. One softer piece of the US data yesterday came with the NAHB housing market index, which fell to a 12-month low (32 vs 34 expected) in a sign that higher rates are weighing on the US housing market.
Finally, in overnight data releases, New Zealand’s economy delivered a modest upside surprise. Q2 GDP expanded +0.2% qoq (vs +0.1% expected), with the year-on-year rate seeing a bigger upside (+2.6% vs +2.2% expected) thanks to upward revisions. So the data suggests underlying activity remains resilient despite continued headwinds.

Looking at the day ahead now, the main highlight will be the BoE’s decision, while the ECB’s Lane and Rehn are scheduled to speak. Data includes US September Philadelphia Fed business outlook, August housing starts, building permits, pending home sales, and initial jobless claims. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 09/17/2026 - 08:21

UK Gilt Yields Tumble As BoE Scraps Bond Sales, Holds Rates (As Expected)

The Bank of England decided to keep the bank rate unchanged at 3.75% on Thursday, as broadly expected, but shifted closer to further tightening.

The decision was reached with a 6-3 vote, with Huw Pill, Megan Greene, and Catherine Mann voting to hike.

Although the MPC still sees little evidence of second-round effects in wages and prices, it now judges those risks to have grown and the inflation outlook to be more clearly tilted to the upside.

As UBS notes, several members who voted to hold said the case for raising rates is building if the conflict and energy shock persist.

Cable is weaker...

Additionally, BoE has scrapped plans to sell long-dated gilts as part of a major overhaul of its quantitative tightening program that will see the £488 billion ($650 billion) portfolio unwound by 2034.

As Bloomberg reports, under proposals that have yet to be finalized, the bank will keep £120 billion of gilts that mature in 2049 or later and match them against future banknote issuance.

Another £222 billion that mature by 2035 will be run off and the remaining £146 billion maturing between 2035 and 2049 will be sold at a pace of £20 billion a year, potentially directly to the government through the Debt Management Office.

In a letter to Chancellor of the Exchequer John Healey, BOE Governor Andrew Bailey said the arrangement “preserves the independence of monetary policy” and would “maximize value for money by minimizing cost and risk over the lifetime” of the program.

All planned QT auctions will be paused until April as the terms of sales to the DMO are worked out.

The new approach to QT comes amid criticism of the program, which has accrued £110 billion of losses paid by taxpayers since the unwinding began in 2022.

Gilt yields are down around 10bps on the statement...

A notable theme in the September minutes was the resilience of the UK economy despite tighter financial conditions and higher energy prices.

GDP grew 0.4% in Q2, above the BoE's 0.3% forecast, while July GDP also rose 0.4%.

The Bank's internal estimate for Q3 growth was upgraded to 0.4% from 0.1% in the July MPR, supported by stronger business-to-business services activity, firmer business confidence and improving consumer sentiment.

In the members’ view on Bank Rate, Governor Bailey warned that the risks to inflation remain to the upside and cautioned against any loss of urgency in reaching negotiated solutions.

Tyler Durden Thu, 09/17/2026 - 08:18

Ed Dowd: The AI Game Of Thrones

Authored by Ed Dowd: Beyond the Narrative via Substack,

Winter is coming for the AI industry, and the great houses are already drawing swords

On one side sit OpenAI and Anthropic, wrapping themselves in the banner of "safety"...House Monopoly.

On the other sit the accelerationists including David Sacks, President Trump, and a growing faction that wants the pathway cleared, not blocked...House Speed Racer.

The fight is being sold as existential risk versus national destiny.

This is a battle for power, money, and control.

The average citizen is not at the table.

I have been watching this movie since the post-Labor Day panic dropped. I wrote last week an article titled "The Post Labor Day AI Panic Psyop Has been Launched" where I detailed a former Anthropic and OpenAI employee with almost no prior X footprint posted a polished warning that the labs are "gambling with our lives." It exploded to 123 million views in a day. Mainstream media, NGOs, and members of Congress materialize on cue. Two days later, after I wrote my Psyop post, Dario Amodei is on every airwave demanding we "pace the frontier." Sam Altman nods along and then Elon agrees even after he questioned the well-coordinated messaging. I suspect his motivation for agreeing is that he wants to make sure he is in the room should this path gain momentum. Even Hillary and Obama weighed in...obviously on House Monopoly side. Basically House Monopoly wants embedded evaluators inside the labs and common safety standards. Coordination that would require government blessing and, conveniently, an antitrust waiver so the two biggest closed model shops can sit in a room and decide how fast everyone else is allowed to run and regulate their competition out of existence. This is not altruism, rather this is regulatory capture.

The reasons for attempting this regulatory capture are simple and I touched on it in my previous article.

Open source models are putting real pricing pressure on the closed frontier systems. The closed system companies are burning cash with profitability nowhere in sight. Enterprises are finally asking about ROI and whether they want their data sitting inside OpenAI or Anthropic. Secondary market valuations are starting to crack. Growth is slowing and capex is increasingly getting harder to finance.

House Speed Racer has not been subtle. Trump called the panic a hoax and a scam. He said the only guardrails AI needs are a strong president, that we already have criminal and regulatory power over these companies, and that whoever wins AI wins. Sacks, who has been in this fight longer than most, told Amodei and Altman they can pace themselves if they want, but stop pretending they need Washington to bless a cartel. Stop asking for the waiver. Stop dressing market protection as public salvation.

The alignment is political, and everyone in the room knows it. The safety rhetoric travels most easily through Democratic networks, legacy NGOs, the parts of the administrative state that grow when fear grows and of course the MSM. The acceleration side is MAGA coded: beat China, build here, do not hand the future to Brussels-style bureaucrats or to companies that spent years positioning themselves as the moral opposition to the current administration. That camp is not wrong that a slowdown written by the current leaders is a gift to Beijing. However it is also not wrong that data center buildouts, power prices, and labor displacement are already landing on regular people who never got a vote.

The ultimate governor for both sides is the credit market and its willingness to fund this so far profitless endeavor.

House Monopoly Pre-Trump

As an aside let us not forget what the plan was under the Biden Administration. Marc Andreessen told this story two years ago and has not stopped repeating it. In May 2024 he sat in the Biden White House and came away convinced the plan was to regulate the industry until only two or three companies remained and startups were finished. He walked out and decided he was for Trump. Last week Politico suddenly published a piece disputing the meeting.

Love the timing! When the narrative needs the origin story memory-holed, the memory-holing arrives on schedule. House Monopoly would rather have us forget their nefarious machinations before Trump was elected.

Andreessen's larger point has always been the same: there is a difference between letting technology move fast and letting incumbents use the state to lock the door behind them. The "plan," as he described it, was never about keeping humanity safe. It was about deciding who gets to own the stack...namely a few oligarchs and the deep state.

So here we are

House Monopoly wants a licensing cartel and a fusion of frontier AI with the administrative state for "safety reasons"...the digital jailer many have been warning about.

House Speed Racer wants the throttle open because the alternative according to them is losing the race to China under national security reasons.

Both houses are populated by people who will be fine either way. Valuations in the hundreds of billions, political access, and the ability to write the rules or write the checks to the people who write the rules.

Who represents the average citizen?

The person whose job might disappear, whose electric bill is already rising because of the buildout, whose data is being vacuumed into models he does not control, and who will live under whatever speech and surveillance norms the winning faction decides are "safe." That person does not have a seat at the table. The hearings will feature the same CEOs, the same former officials cycling through the same firms, and the same senators who already have bills in the drawer.

I believe we are being presented with a false dichotomy. It is never black or white rather issues are more nuanced. There are no easy choices in this situation. Real risks exist...models that can crack cyber security and wreak havoc are not science fiction. Alternativity steam rolling local communities into accepting data centers is not the path forward. Additionally both sides ignore citizen's rights addressing personal data integrity, the ability to opt out from the models using them for training, fears about future employment prospects and local community data center concerns. Will grass roots citizens be allowed in the room?

As always watch the cash, watch who writes the rules and watch who gets the waivers. This is Game of Thrones and the Iron Throne is up for grabs. The smallfolk are not invited to the coronation...yet. Hopefully we figure out a third path. In my humble opinion House Monopoly is a dystopian no go option and House Speed Racer needs to address citizens legitimate concerns or risk losing to these self-serving fear merchants in the narrative war.

Isaiah 10:1-2
"Woe to those who make unjust laws, to those who issue oppressive decrees... to deprive the poor of their rights and withhold justice from the oppressed of my people."

Tyler Durden Thu, 09/17/2026 - 08:05

Generac Surges Most On Record As Amazon's Generator Deal Electrifies Data Centers

Generac shares surged the most on record in premarket trading in New York after disclosing a long-term deal with Amazon that could generate up to $8 billion in power-generation spending. 

Wells Fargo analyst Praneeth Satish, who covers Generac, shared his initial thoughts on the massive Amazon-Generac power deal in a note:

GNRC Announces Multibillion Dollar Contract With AMZN. GNRC announced a multi year agreement to supply backup generators for Amazon's data centers and issued warrants to AMZN, allowing for the purchase of up to 1.69M GNRC shares at $200.93/ share. The warrants vest as Amazon's cumulative generator purchases increase, up to $8B of spend, with ~18% vesting at signing. Initial deliveries are expected to total $2.4B in 2027-28, or an average of $1.2B/yr (vs our prior estimate of >$1.0B).

Warrants Imply A Long-Term Relationship. The warrant agreement suggests Amazon's relationship with GNRC is intended to extend well beyond the initial $2.4B delivery schedule for 2027-28, with Amazon able to earn the full warrant only if cumulative diesel generator purchases ultimately reach $8B, reinforcing our view that the strategic significance o

Stock Was Not Reflecting Much Data Center Upside, Making This Deal More Impactful. GNRC stock has underperformed recently given investor concerns around Trump's EO on foreign-sourced grid equipment and GNRC's use of Baudouin engines. We estimate GNRC is worth ~$185/sh assuming only a sustained ~$1B annual revenue run rate from its first hyperscaler and colo deals. With GNRC trading at $175/sh pre AMZN deal, the stock appeared to be discounting little to no value for any new data center deals.

William Blair industrials analyst Brian Drab told clients that Generac's seven-year deal with Amazon is a "massive win" : 

Our Take. This is a massive win for Generac and provides clarity regarding the demand underpinning management's recently announced plan to triple manufacturing capacity for large-format generators by August 2027. We estimate the agreement will add more than 20% to total company EBITDA in 2028. In addition, the agreement provides strong visibility, with an indication of $8 billion in spend over seven years, for Generac at a time when many investors are questioning the durability of capital spending trends in the data center industry. The agreement also reduces the perceived risk associated with the extraordinary capacity expansion management has in motion. Prior to today's announcement, shares were trading at only 10 times 2027 EBITDA, despite our forecast for greater than 20% EBITDA growth over the next several years. We believe that the signing of this agreement will not only drive material upward estimate revisions but also lower the discount rate applied to the future earnings given increased visibility, driving valuation expansion.

Generac shares surged 34% in premarket trading. If sustained through the cash close, the massive gain would mark the stock's largest one-day gain in Bloomberg data going back to 2010.

Analyst coverage includes 16 "Buy" ratings, six "Holds," and no "Sells," with an average 12-month price target of about $293.

We recently cited Apollo's head of thematic investing, Rob Bittencourt, who said the US reindustrialization is already "underway" and will require trillions of dollars in investment. Bittencourt noted that much of the investing activity has centered on compute-related spending (read the report). Generac's Amazon deal shows how the spending is extending beyond computing hardware into the power infrastructure supporting the data center buildout and powering up America trends. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 09/17/2026 - 07:45

CENTCOM Chief Tells Arab States US Will Not Withdraw From Middle East

Kyle Anzalone via The Libertarian Institute

Commander of Central Command (CENTCOM) Adm. Brad Cooper recently organized a meeting of Israeli and Arab military officials. At the summit, he informed his counterparts that the US military has no plans to withdraw its forces from the Middle East. 

Axios reported it spoke with two Israeli officials who said representatives from Israel, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Jordan, and Egypt attended the summit hosted by Cooper in Germany last week. 

According to the Israeli officials, Cooper told his counterparts the US military would not withdraw its forces from the region despite Iranian attacks on US bases and that Washington planned to expand shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. 

via SPA

Earlier this month, CNN reported that it spoke with six officials who said there were quiet conversations ongoing on reducing the US military presence in the Middle East. Senior Pentagon officials have privately made clear that they want a smaller US military footprint in several Gulf states after the conflict.

While the US is maintaining tens of thousands of soldiers in the Middle East during the war, many of the permanent military bases and intelligence facilities have been damaged or destroyed during the conflict with Iran. CNN reported that it spoke with an official who said the CIA outpost in Saudi Arabia was destroyed. 

Some military and intelligence facilities destroyed during the conflict may not be rebuilt or replaced. Some officials are considering having US special operations and intelligence personnel based in America and travel to the Middle East for specific missions.

Future military bases in the Middle East may be moved underground to protect them in future conflicts.

CENTCOM confirmed the meeting, saying Cooper “hosted senior military leaders from eight nations during a scheduled conference in Germany. The leaders discussed opportunities for enhancing security cooperation in the Middle East.”

At the summit, according to a source familiar with the matter who told Axios, Israel and Saudi Arabia discussed how Tel Aviv could support Riyadh in the war against Ansar Allah in Yemen. Ansar Allah has declared blockades targeting Israeli and Saudi shipping in the Red Sea. 

The Pentagon’s Inspector General reports today that “hundreds” of buildings and structures on U.S. bases in the Middle East have been destroyed by Iranian attacks. pic.twitter.com/B7SD33IrZI

— Daniel DePetris (@DanDePetris) September 15, 2026

Ansar Allah asserted its view that the blockade on Israeli shipping is a response to the genocide in Gaza, while its restrictions on Saudi shipping are retaliation for Riyadh’s renewed military campaign in Yemen.

Tyler Durden Thu, 09/17/2026 - 07:20

We Are Not In A Recession... So Why Are We Borrowing Like It?

Authored by Ken Buck via The Epoch Times,

Despite a lot of talk about fiscal responsibility, lawmakers in Washington are continuing to run up the tab on America's already maxed-out credit card.

The U.S. annual deficit - the difference between the revenue that the federal government collects and what it spends each year - reached $1.8 trillion through the first 10 months of the current fiscal year. With two months still left to go, this year's deficit will exceed $2 trillion.

In non-pandemic years, the U.S. deficit has never surpassed $1.8 trillion in a single year.

Our economy is growing, unemployment remains low, and there is no national emergency forcing the government's hand. So, what gives? Why can't Washington get our fiscal house in order? As the president of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget put it, this is "not normal."

High borrowing costs, which are a result of our country's yawning national debt (the cumulative total of each year's deficit), are a major driver. The U.S. Treasury yield, which is the interest rate the government must pay on bonds issued for debt, hit a 19-year high this month, 5.34 percent.

In other words, as the national debt continues to climb, creditors are wary that the federal government will be able to repay its obligations and therefore demand a higher return. That means more revenue - almost 20 cents of every tax dollar, higher than the previous record set in 1991 - now goes to paying interest rather than investing in our country.

The real problem, however, is Washington's unbridled spending spree. Democrats insist on more federal programs, even as the price tag for existing entitlements continues to grow, and annual shortfalls continue to mount. Federal spending increased by 5 percent this year compared to last, while revenue only grew 3 percent.

Sadly, even conservatives have gone along with the ruse. The Big Beautiful Bill, Republicans' landmark reconciliation package last year, promised to cut a lot of government waste and kept taxes low, but it failed to get to the root of the federal growth. Without serious entitlement reform, tax cuts leave the budget hole even larger.

The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office estimated that the Big Beautiful Bill would add $3.4 trillion to the national debt over 10 years, and as much as $4.5 trillion when factoring in interest payments.

Don't get me wrong, Republicans' tax cuts are a smart way to spur economic growth, which is one way to improve our country's finances. When the private sector can invest its money, rather than pay it to Uncle Sam, it creates jobs and economic activity - which fill the public coffers. The government doesn't create jobs; businesses do. When companies and workers do well, so does the government.

But tax cuts must be offset by meaningful spending reductions. Addressing just one side of the ledger is like damming half a river; it doesn't fix deficits.

Getting our annual deficits in check doesn't mean looking back; it requires looking forward. It's a live decision, one that's happening at the same time the administration is asking Congress for a 19 percent increase in discretionary spending - which would be the second-largest bump in at least six decades.

Lawmakers must look at our deficit-spending addiction holistically. To his credit, President Donald Trump's 2027 budget proposes cutting non-defense spending by 10 percent. However, those gains are more than negated in defense spending. That's a critical priority, but funding must be offset with significant spending reductions. That means programs that have long been a political third rail, including Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid.

While slashing entitlement historically has not been a winning recipe for getting reelected, voters understand what's at stake, and they want leaders who will make the right decisions.

Over eight in 10 Americans are more concerned about the national debt now compared to a few years ago, and 85 percent want Congress and the White House to do more to address it.

The heightened awareness owes to voters' own understanding. Nine in 10 people realize that our country's debt problem is driving up costs of living and making personal borrowing more expensive.

Eliminating our country's annual deficits is achievable, and doing so will get our national debt on a path to be paid down. But it will take bold leaders who will set realistic goals and have the political courage to achieve them. That's a tall ask in Washington these days, but voters should demand it when they go to vote this fall.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times or ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Thu, 09/17/2026 - 06:30

Turkish State Takes Near-Total Control Of US-Sanctioned Bank Over IRGC Ties

On September 4, the US Treasury unveiled sanctions against a Turkey-based bank and two of its subsidiaries, accusing them of moving tens of millions of dollars on behalf of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Quds Force and facilitating Tehran's movement of funds across the international banking system. 

It did not take long for the Turkish government to sweep in and act to contain the damage and what some interpret as a national reputational hit, which was one of the opening salvoes in the Trump/Bessent 'Economic D-Day' and secondary sanctions (Operation Economic Outcast) targeting Tehran and entities still doing business with the Islamic Republic.

On Wednesday Turkey's banking regulator has taken over most shareholder rights of the US-targeted bank - the Golden ⁠Global Yatirim Bankasi - through the country’s state deposit insurer, TMSF (Savings Deposit Insurance Fund).

Turkish media notes that "The decision gives the fund the authority to exercise the shareholder rights attached to the stakes, while specifically excluding dividend rights."

The newly reassigned rights cover 99.98 percent of the shares in the bank, reports also detail.

Publicly available figures indicate that Golden Global Investment Bank is a small and young bank, having €498 million ($574.5 million) in total assets, and was only founded in 2019.

In the wake of the US action, US Ambassador to Turkey and Trump special envoy for the broader region Tom Barrack had sought to calm the Turkish government by saying Washington is only targeting specific financial institutions and this is not meant as a shot against Turkey itself.

"This designation is aimed at the conduct of one entity, not at a nation, not at a banking system, and not at an ally," Barrack wrote on X.

He further declared it would be "a serious error" to interpret the measure as a judgment on the Turkish ally as a whole.

The country's Finance Minister Mehmet Simsek had simply acknowledged last week that Ankara had taken note of US Treasury announcements - suggesting some kind of serious house cleaning could soon follow.

OFAC alleges the bank was created to help Iranian oil revenues reach Turkey from China, where exchangers converted the funds into cash and gold, and accuses it of opening correspondent banking to Iranian institutions through accounts under Quds Force control. There are reports saying the bank has officially rejected the charges against it.

Tyler Durden Thu, 09/17/2026 - 05:45

Houthis Issue Video Of Saudi F-15 Shootdown, As Ground Clashes Intensify In Yemen

Update(1135ET): The Houthis have released new footage which appears to confirm the earlier Saudi F-15 jet shootdown, with aircraft falling in the Marib area. The footage shows militants celebrating near the wreckage.

Below is the clip as released by Ansar Allah officials, which has since been given confirmation by some foreign and international outlets. It suggests that the Houthis have locally-made ability to down advanced aircraft, which should seriously worry Riyadh and Washington.

مشاهد نوعية لإسقاط طائرة مقاتلة سعودية من نوع F15 وحطامها في محافظة مأرب - 16 سبتمبر 2026م pic.twitter.com/rk0suliePT

— الإعلام الحربي اليمني (@MMY1444) September 16, 2026

According to the latest on the fighting in Yemen, clashes are intensifying:

Yemen’s pro-government Southern Giants Forces say that they are engaged in clashes with Houthi forces on the Kahboub front near the Bab al-Mandeb strait.

The government-aligned forces claim in a social media post that they have inflicted heavy personnel and equipment losses on the Houthi forces.

Global oil prices continue climbing amid a slew of negative headlines:

• WRIGHT: LOOKING AT USING DPA TO INCREASE REFINING CAPACITY
• WRIGHT ON EAST-WEST PIPELINE: 3 PUMPING STATIONS WERE HIT

From bad to worse for the coalition:

Looks like the Yemenis weren't lying about downing a Saudi jet today. pic.twitter.com/2t4tTYoa6F

— Russians With Attitude (@RWApodcast) September 16, 2026

*  *  *

Yemen's Ansar Allah (Houthi) movement has claimed to have shot down a Saudi fighter jet in a Wednesday statement, saying they utilized domestic made munitions to do it.

"The Yemeni Armed Forces, with Allah's aid and grace, succeeded in shooting down a Saudi F-15 fighter jet while it was carrying out hostile operations," Houthi military spokesman Yahya Saree announced.

Royal Saudi Air Force

He said the fighter jet had been targeted "using a locally made" missile over Marib - after the Saudi coalition has launched some 450 strikes. The area of the alleged downing is some 75 miles east of Sanaa.

Saudi authorities have not acknowledged any shootdown and have not immediately commented on the claim.

Overnight, the big news out of the conflict focused on Saudi claims that it had intercepted a Houthi drone targeting Yemen in a "heinous" act targeting Islam's holiest site.

However, the Houthis are vehemently denying sending a drone on Mecca. "Our operations target its oil facilities and military bases, which are far removed from the sacred sites," Saree said further.

The Houthi military spokesman called out the "fabrications and lies propagated by the criminal al-Saud regime cannot deceive anyone."

Missile alerts had been issued for the population of Mecca, and plenty of old and fake social media videos purported to capture footage of a drone inbound on Mecca, but so far no clear evidence has emerged of the alleged targeting.

But the Saudi claims were enough to get Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif to condemn Wednesday "in the strongest possible terms the dastardly and heinous" the alleged attack on Mecca.

"The people of Pakistan are saddened and perturbed by this outrageous act," he said on X.

Unconfirmed image of downed jet posted by Iranian state media:

On Wednesday morning, Yemeni Army confirmed that it had shot down a Saudi F-15 fighter aircraft over Marib Province. pic.twitter.com/4nk1d1DYi6

— IRNA News Agency ☫ (@IrnaEnglish) September 16, 2026

Pakistan and Turkey just recently this summer signed a comprehensive "Mecca Defense Pact", and the Saudi claims that Mecca was targeted by drone are perhaps intended to secure the help of allies in dealing with the advancing Houthis menace while a Red Sea 'siege for siege' policy is still in effect. As for the lates developments to emerge Wednesday, via Newsquawk:

Houthis say they carried out two military operations, targeting Saudi Aramco in Yanbu with dozens of ballistic missiles and drones and Khamis Mushait Air Base with a number of ballistic missiles.

The damaged Saudi East-West pipeline could still take five to six weeks to come back online, according to some estimates.

* * *

Tyler Durden Thu, 09/17/2026 - 05:01

Apparently This Is Not Criminal Damage...

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity News,

A Dutch 'activist' who climbed Winston Churchill's statue in Parliament Square, sprayed it with "Zionist war criminal," "Globalise the Intifada" and Hamas-style red triangles, then argued the graffiti didn't count because it could be washed off, has walked out of Southwark Crown Court a free man.

The bill for cleaning the monument ran into thousands. The man who did it has escaped criminal charges.

Olax Outis, also known as Caspar San Giorgi, 39, defaced Churchill earlier this year while wearing a red boiler suit reading "I support Palestine Action." Prosecutor Peter Ratliff told jurors he sprayed the words 'Free Palestine' and red triangles on the front, and 'Never Again Is Now' on the rear. On the plinth he scrawled 'Globalise the Intifada,' 'Stop the Genocide' and 'Zionist war criminal,' plus a Dutch line he later rendered as 'The Hague sends their regards.'

UPDATE: The Dutch Palestine Action fan who vandalised Winston Churchill's statue with slogans like "Globalise the Intifada" and red triangles was just found NOT GUILTY of criminal damage. This country's legal system is a nasty joke. pic.twitter.com/HYmjUTnZGy

— Heidi Bachram (@HeidiBachram) September 15, 2026

A Greater London Authority heritage warden saw him doing it and called the police. Officers were there within two minutes. Specialist cleaners were not far behind. Court figures put the damage at £11,970 when he was first charged. Later reporting on the restoration bill listed more than £7,000, including police barriers at £612 plus VAT and an emergency clean and restore at £6,504 plus VAT.

He denied criminal damage. The paint was washable, he said. He was "sending a message to parliament." He was "preventing a crime." The jury agreed he was not guilty.

In the dock he was unrepentant. "I'm proud to be a citizen of The Hague," he told them. "If I had a larger canvas and more time, I would have written if Keir Starmer doesn't come to The Hague, The Hague will come for him. My wish is to see him on trial in The Hague." On the verdict itself: "Whether you convict me or not is not too much of a concern for me. Whether I get acquitted, deported, imprisoned for years, I can be proud of having spoken about injustice and I have accounted for my actions. I will accept your judgement."

'It is pathetic! It is astonishing! I cannot believe the country we live in.' @MartinDaubney fumes at confirmation that the man who painted 'Free Palestine' on the Chrurchill statue in Westminster being cleared of criminal damage. pic.twitter.com/t4pWNeXiu8

— GB News (@GBNEWS) September 15, 2026

He had already claimed the stunt online. He had come to Britain, he said, to "deface a statue of one of history's most well-known war criminals, Winston Churchill." Churchill, in his telling, was "the Keir Starmer of his time."

Downing Street called the vandalism "completely abhorrent" in February and said Churchill was "a great Briton" who "must be held to account." The Home Office called the vandals "a disgrace." The Greater London Authority said it was "appalled." Six months later a jury decided the spray cans did not amount to a crime.

'Many people find it an abhorrent form of protest.'

Social policy analyst Dr Rakib Ehsan reacts to an activist being cleared of 'desecrating' the Winston Churchill outside of Parliament. pic.twitter.com/w8hNxroiDg

— GB News (@GBNEWS) September 15, 2026

Heidi Bachram, whose husband's relatives were murdered and taken hostage by Hamas, blasted the decision, urging "This country's legal system is a nasty joke,"and adding "He should have been deported." A foreigner, she noted, can "paint a threat to Jews on the statue of our greatest leader with the added red triangle to make clear it isn't the 'peaceful' version of Intifada and GET AWAY WITH IT."

This is the closing speech of Olax Outis where he says he should have done something more "spectacular". Like burning down a weapons factory as a group did in Czech Republic. This is extraordinary and I cannot comprehend this man is walking free. pic.twitter.com/vstz61VJwr

— Heidi Bachram (@HeidiBachram) September 15, 2026

What I don't understand about the jury sympathising with this guy is his blatant disingenuousness. Here he complains about not getting an interpreter while speaking in almost perfect English. We live in Bizarro World. pic.twitter.com/plMYxyn3E5

— Heidi Bachram (@HeidiBachram) September 15, 2026

You won't even get convicted as along as it's 'protest'. I wonder if this would have happened if it were far right messages though.

— Heidi Bachram (@HeidiBachram) September 15, 2026

This is a disgusting ruling that will only embolden far-left thugs to vandalise our national hero's statue time and time again.

Would the same injustice have been done if it were Gandhi's or Mandela's statue that had been defaced? https://t.co/MjwUN4oeh4

— Alex Armstrong (@Alexarmstrong) September 15, 2026

WANKER who did this, desecrated Winston Churchill found not guilty of criminal damage arguing in court the paint washed off.

A Green light for these bastards to do the same to anything else.

Imagine if you threw some of that on a Mosque, your feet wouldn't touch the floor.... pic.twitter.com/pYiYrgKwiG

— Tony (@EvacTony) September 15, 2026

That is the two-tier point, and it is not a slogan. The Met and Greater Manchester Police spent last winter warning that "globalise the intifada" could get you arrested. The same words went up in red on Churchill's monument. The man who put them there told a jury the paint came off. The jury said not guilty.

None of this sits in a vacuum. Churchill is being taken apart in official rooms while activists take him apart in the square.

Last week it emerged the Bank of England had spent more than £85,000 researching how to get him off the £5 note. Consultants told officials that portraits of notable Britons were "elitist and divisive," a "backward-looking vision of the UK that carries too great a risk of division and controversy." Hedgehogs and puffins are waiting in the wings. Nigel Farage called the plan "absolutely crackers." Kemi Badenoch called it "erasing our history."

The same city that cannot convict a man for spraying "Zionist war criminal" across Churchill is being lectured by the UN's racial discrimination committee to put up statues of people of African descent as atonement for slavery - as if Britain had not banned the trade, spent blood and treasure suppressing it, and already spent years ripping down or boxing up its own monuments.

Sadiq Khan's Commission for Diversity in the Public Realm was built for that mood. Churchill's statue was boarded up in 2020. The lecture has not stopped.

Churchill's statue today in London. I'm speechless. pic.twitter.com/lU6Y37my7e

— Antonello Guerrera (@antoguerrera) June 12, 2020

They even installed the punchline. On Trafalgar Square's Fourth Plinth last week City Hall unveiled Tschabalala Self's five-metre Lady in Blue - sold as an "everywoman," a "symbol of confidence and purpose," and, in the CNN version, a win because it is "not another White man." It stands in the ceremonial heart of the capital, opposite Nelson, paid for out of the same public art machine that treats British victory as an embarrassment.

Picture the same red paint poured all over that figure. The press releases write themselves. The outrage would be industrial.

Tyler Durden Thu, 09/17/2026 - 05:00