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Zero Rss

The Liberal Media Is Finally Noticing Democrats Are Willing To Shred The Rule Of Law

Zero Rss
1 month ago
The Liberal Media Is Finally Noticing Democrats Are Willing To Shred The Rule Of Law

Democrats have anointed themselves the defenders of democracy and protectors of the rule of law. For years, the liberal media has been more than willing to help push that narrative. But after the state Supreme Court struck down the Virginia gerrymander, the reaction from Democrats was so extreme that even their usual defenders couldn’t ignore how bad it looked.

On Sunday, the New York Times reported that House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and Virginia Democrats held a conference call the day after the Virginia Supreme Court ruled that the party had violated the state constitution by passing its gerrymandered map, nullifying the new map before it could be implemented. According to the report, lawmakers spent the call “venting anger at their defeat,” with the atmosphere described as “desperation and fury,” and Democrats floated the idea of lowering the mandatory retirement age of the court so they could replace all the justices and restart the process of passing their gerrymandered map.

Even some of the liberal media’s old guard felt uncomfortable that such an idea was seriously considered, and what that says about the party that claims to be defenders of Democracy and the rule of law. 

That’s the unmistakable takeaway from a revealing exchange between Chris Cillizza and Chuck Todd on Monday on Cillizza’s podcast.

Chuck Todd framed the Virginia ruling as the natural consequence of bad politics and worse arrogance. “That’s how I feel about this, this ruling in Virginia, right? This was a bad idea. This was terrible messaging. This was defeat. This sort of undermined every supposed principle that the Democratic Party had been running on for over a decade,” he said.

The deeper problem, as Todd and Cillizza both made clear, is that Democrats did this to themselves. “And, you know, and they didn’t dot their I’s and cross their T’s,” Todd said, acknowledging reports that Democrats in Virginia knew their plan wasn’t constitutional but pressed forward with it anyway.

“The Democratic state legislature told the Virginia State Supreme Court, ‘Do not offer a ruling on this until after the election,’” Cillizza noted. In other words, they knew exactly what they were doing. They were trying to run the clock and hope the courts would stay out of the way until after the votes were cast, and there was nothing that could be done about it.

Todd then referenced the  New York Times report about the plan to lower the retirement age for Supreme Court justices to 54, which he used as another example of Democrats careening away from any serious commitment to institutional norms.

“And you’re sitting there going, ‘Wow.’ And you’re the same party that’s been complaining that Donald Trump doesn’t respect, um, the democracy? Doesn’t respect the will of the voters, doesn’t respect institutions.” 

“How about rule of law?” Cillizza added.

The narrative from Democrats for years has been about protecting democracy, defending norms, and standing up for institutions. But when their own power is on the line, that lofty rhetoric suddenly turns into just another set of talking points. Todd even admitted the entire episode looked insane from the outside. 

The most damning part came when Todd explained what he thinks the Democratic Party is willing to do.

“The left has become… as bad as Trump,” he said.

“I mean, look, go ahead and do it, but don’t be surprised when voters sort of decide, man, you guys are full of shit too. And you guys aren’t serious about the democracy. You just are trying to rig it in your direction.”

Todd also argued that the Democratic Party’s refusal to admit error makes the problem worse.

“The Democratic Party is not going to accept the premise that, ‘You know what? Maybe we were principally wrong about this, and maybe we should have stuck to the high ground,’” he said. Instead, he warned, they want to be “just as radical and just as, uh, anti-democracy as they accuse the other side of being.”

I was amazed/appalled by how quickly Dems screamed "RIGGED" and called for the impeachment/removal of the Virginia state Supreme Court on Friday.

Sounds a lot like the guy they say is a threat to liberal democracy.... pic.twitter.com/Ye8uHAaLav

— Chris Cillizza (@ChrisCillizza) May 11, 2026

That is the part that should worry Democrats the most.

When even their media allies are describing their behavior as anti-democratic, anti-institutional, and openly cynical, it’s a huge problem for them. The party that spent years sermonizing about norms is now getting caught pushing banana republic tactics and calling it righteousness. 

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/13/2026 - 16:40
Tyler Durden

CIA, Mexico Criticize CNN Report Claiming US Directly Participated In Bombing Of Cartels In Mexico

Zero Rss
1 month ago
CIA, Mexico Criticize CNN Report Claiming US Directly Participated In Bombing Of Cartels In Mexico

Authored by Kimberly Hayek via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The Central Intelligence Agency and Mexico are criticizing CNN for spreading false information after the news outlet published a report - citing anonymous sources - claiming that CIA operatives had directly participated in targeted killings as part of the U.S. intelligence agency’s alleged “secret war” against cartel members in Mexico.

A man walks across the CIA seal in the lobby of the agency headquarters in Langley, Va., on Aug. 14, 2008. Saul Loeb/AFP via Getty Images

The report, published on May 12, alleged that CIA Ground Branch officers had been present at or involved in targeted assassinations on mostly mid-level cartel members over the past year, including a March 28 vehicle explosion on a congested highway in Tecámac, in the State of Mexico just outside Mexico City, that killed Francisco Beltrán—known as “El Payín”—an alleged Sinaloa Cartel member, and his driver.

“This is false and salacious reporting that serves as nothing more than a PR campaign for the cartels and puts American lives at risk,” CIA spokeswoman Liz Lyons said in a statement on X.

Mexican Security Secretary Omar García Harfuch also rejected the report.

“The Government of Mexico categorically rejects any version that seeks to normalize, justify or suggest the existence of lethal, covert or unilateral operations by foreign agencies on national territory,” he wrote on X. “Any international cooperation is limited to the exchange of information, institutional coordination and formal mechanisms established by the Government of Mexico.”

CNN and the U.S. Department of Homeland Security did not immediately return a request for comment.

The State of Mexico Attorney General’s Office has also issued a statement that “firmly rejects” any of its members telling journalists that an explosive device had been planted inside Beltrán’s vehicle, contradicting CNN’s reporting.

“An explosive device had been hidden inside the vehicle, the State of Mexico’s Attorney General told CNN,” the contested report reads.

The office said its inquiry into the two deaths remains active and that investigators had yet to establish a cause.

Tuesday’s dispute follows weeks of compounding friction between Washington and Mexico City over efforts in Mexico to address cartel crimes.

On April 19, two U.S. Embassy employees died in a car crash in Chihuahua state, along with two Mexican state officials. Chihuahua Attorney General César Jáuregui Moreno said the four officials were on their way back from an operation targeting drug laboratories in the municipality of Morelos when the incident occurred.

The two U.S. Embassy employees were later reported by The Associated Press to be CIA agents collaborating with Chihuahua officials—claims the White House did not deny.

The White House on April 22 said that U.S. President Donald Trump was dissatisfied with Mexico’s official response to the incident. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum had said that no agents from any U.S. government institution may operate in Mexico without approval from Mexico’s federal government, implying that the operation with local officials in Chihuahua state had not been given the green light by Mexico City.

Also in April, the Department of Justice indicted Sinaloa Governor Rubén Rocha Moya and nine current and former Sinaloa officials on drug trafficking and weapons charges, a development that has further strained the relationship between Washington and Mexico City.

The U.S. Treasury Department separately imposed sanctions on an international narcotics distribution network linked to the Sinaloa Cartel.

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/13/2026 - 16:20
Tyler Durden

Iran Claims 80% Of Bombed-Out Areas Of Tehran Restored, Amid $270BN War Loss Compensation Demand

Zero Rss
1 month ago
Iran Claims 80% Of Bombed-Out Areas Of Tehran Restored, Amid $270BN War Loss Compensation Demand

Iran has been seeking to prove its unity and defiance to the world in the aftermath of the 38-days of heavy US-Israeli bombing it endured throughout the Trump-ordered Operation Epic Fury.

Along with fast seeking to rearm and recover its missile capability after the bombardment which heavily targeted above and below-ground missile silos, it is also rapidly rebuilding bombed-out parts of the capital city Tehran.

Getty Images

In what sounds like a surprising and perhaps high estimate, about 80% of war-damaged sites in Iran's capital have been repaired, the state Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting (IRIB) reports.

"More than 60,000 residential and commercial units in Tehran province were hit by American-Zionist attacks during the third imposed war," Deputy Governor of Tehran Seyyed Kamaleddin Mirjafarian was quoted in the report as saying.

The 80% claim might be met with a lot of scrutiny and doubt, given that many neighborhoods and buildings seemed to suffer damage so immense in scale, that it should take at least months if not years to rebuild.

But there has been some clear evidence that Iranian construction teams and engineers have worked around the clock to repair and replace vital infrastructure, like bridges for example.

The US and Israel had struck bridges and rail lines to cripple Iran's national transport network. Israel especially adopted attacks against key civilian infrastructure as a battle tactic, in hopes that eventually there would be a groundswell of anti-Tehran anger domestically, leading to government overthrow.

Also, "ports and railway networks, universities and research centers, and several power plants and water desalination plants were directly hit, while a large number of hospitals, schools and civilian homes were also damaged or destroyed," Al Jazeera describes.

By mid-April, Iran had put a price on the damage, while demanding compensation from Washington:

Iran has also raised the idea of compensation for damages to come through a Strait of Hormuz protocol, which would include a tax on ships passing through the waterway.

An early estimate indicates that Iran has suffered about $270bn in direct and indirect damages since the start of the US-Israel war on February 28, Iranian government spokeswoman Fatemeh Mohajerani said during an interview with Russia’s RIA Novosti news agency, published on Tuesday.

She did not provide further information, such as a breakdown of the damages, but said the issue of compensation was discussed in last week’s negotiations between Tehran and Washington in Pakistan, and will be raised in any potential future talks with the US and mediators.

President Trump himself repeatedly threatening to bomb bridges, power plants, and other infrastructure to send Iran "back to the Stone Age." He's reportedly mulling the resumption of full military operations, amid stalled or non-existent peace talks.

Tehran municipality repairs over 40,000 war-damaged apartments free of charge

Gisoo Misha Ahmadi reports from Tehran

Follow Press TV on Telegram: https://t.co/LWoNSpkc2J pic.twitter.com/bsAteHKajf

— Press TV 🔻 (@PressTV) May 7, 2026

While vital infrastructure and even energy sites have indeed in many cases been obliterated, the lights are still on across the country, save for the persisting government-imposed internet blackout. The internet blackout is now approaching 80 days.

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/13/2026 - 15:45
Tyler Durden

Jane Street Slashes Bitcoin ETF Holdings, Adds Ether Funds In Q1 2026

Zero Rss
1 month ago
Jane Street Slashes Bitcoin ETF Holdings, Adds Ether Funds In Q1 2026

Authored by Helen Partz via CoinTelegraph.com,

Wall Street market maker Jane Street reduced its exposure to Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the first quarter of 2026 while increasing positions in Ether funds.

Jane Street cut major Bitcoin ETF holdings in Q1 2026, including BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) and Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC), according to a 13F filing published Tuesday.

IBIT holdings fell about 71% from Q4 2025 to roughly 5.9 million shares valued at about $225 million, while FBTC dropped about 60% to around 2 million shares worth roughly $115 million.

At the same time, Jane Street increased its exposure to Ether (ETH) ETFs, nearly doubling its position in BlackRock’s iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA) and sharply raising its stake in Fidelity Ethereum Fund (FETH), adding about $82 million combined across the two products over the quarter.

The move comes amid early signs of institutional Ether ETF buying in early 2026, including increased exposure reported at Wells Fargo. The filing points to a reshuffling of Jane Street’s reportable crypto-linked holdings at quarter-end, though 13F disclosures do not show the market maker’s full trading book or net exposure.

Bitcoin exposure weakens further as Strategy stake falls

Jane Street’s Bitcoin-linked exposure weakened further in Q1 2026 as it reduced its stake in Michael Saylor’s Strategy (MSTR) alongside major ETF cuts.

In Q4 2025, the firm held about 968,000 MSTR shares worth roughly $145.9 million. By Q1 2026, the common stock stake fell to about 210,000 shares valued at roughly $27 million, a decline of about 78% quarter-over-quarter.

Jane Street increased its Strategy (MSTR) position by 473% in Q4 2025. Source: TheBTCTherapist

Strategy selling followed significant buying in the previous quarter as Jane Street reportedly increased MSTR position by 473% in Q4 2025.

In Q1 2026, the company also trimmed exposure across several Bitcoin mining stocks, including IREN, Cipher Mining, TeraWulf and Core Scientific.

Increased exposure to Coinbase, Galaxy and Riot

Despite broad downside pressure on Bitcoin-related assets, Jane Street increased exposure to several crypto-linked equities over the quarter, suggesting more selective positioning in crypto-related equities rather than a broad exit from the sector.

Jane Street raised its stake in the crypto mining company Riot Platforms (RIOT) to about 7.4 million shares, up from 5 million, increasing its value to roughly $91 million from $63 million.

It also increased its position in Coinbase (COIN) to about 888,000 shares from 778,000, with the value rising to about $155 million from $176 million in the prior quarter.

Galaxy Digital (GLXY) saw the sharpest expansion, jumping to about 1.5 million shares from just around 17,000, lifting its value to roughly $28 million from around $380,000.

Jane Street posted a record $16.1 billion in Q1 trading revenue, according to Reuters, as volatile markets and gains tied to artificial intelligence-related investments boosted financial results.

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/13/2026 - 15:25
Tyler Durden

GOP Lawmakers Leery Of Trump's Billion-Dollar Ballroom-Security Package

Zero Rss
1 month ago
GOP Lawmakers Leery Of Trump's Billion-Dollar Ballroom-Security Package

Wary of the terrible election-year optics, some federal Republican legislators are less-than-enthusiastic about approving a request for a billion dollars in security funding relating to President Trump's White House ballroom project. Some of them shared those feelings with reporters after they received a Tuesday afternoon closed-door briefing by Secret Service Director Sean Curran. 

When he first rolled out the 90,000-square-foot ballroom project, Trump repeatedly emphasized that the project would cost $200 million and be funded entirely with private donations. Now the ballroom itself is projected to cost $400 million -- still privately-funded -- but with another $1 billion in federal funding being poured into security provisions.

An artist's rendering of Trump's ballroom, which is now projected to cost $400 million before $1 billion in security add-ons (via White House)

“I think the timing and the optics are really bad,” North Carolina Sen. Thom Tillis told reporters Monday. “This time last year, roughly, maybe a little bit before, we were all impressed with the fact that this $400 million building was going to be paid for out of the generosity of donors, and now we’re hearing 2½ times that is necessary for some other aspect of the project.” The ballroom funds are supposed to be part of the ICE and Border Patrol bill that's considered as a GOP must-have. 

In his briefing to legislators, Curran provided an itemization of the big-ticket items comprising that $1 billion request. “He walked through the various categories,” Senate Majority Leader John Thune said. “So it was a good back-and-forth, a good discussion, and obviously we had a lot of questions that were asked by our colleagues, just to get the details and precision as much as possible about how dollars will be used.”

According to the Washington Post, the categories include: 

  • $200 million for "hardening" the party room, from both above and below; finishes include bulletproof glass, and systems to detect chemical weapons and drones
  • $180 million for a new White House visitor-screening setup
  • $175 million for training Secret Service agents and improving "protectee security"
  • $150 million to ward off "emerging threats" to include bioweapons and airborne attacks
  • $100 million to secure high-profile national events

Following the briefing, Kansas Sen. Roger Marshall, who routinely votes as Trump wishes, was non-committal. “I still got some more questions, and they’re going to send us more information...I'm undecided." Similarly, Louisiana Sen. John Kennedy, said he has "a lot" of questions of his own, adding that "One of the biggest concerns on our side is adding to the deficit." 

TRUMP: "We have a ballroom that's under budget. It's going up right here. I doubled the size of it because we obviously need that."

REPORTER: "The price has doubled..."

TRUMP: "I doubled the size of it, you dumb person. I doubled the size. You are not a smart person." pic.twitter.com/iC03NPPEye

— Breaking911 (@Breaking911) May 12, 2026

Others were more candid. "Not happening here," said Pennsylvania Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick, when asked if the House was likely to approve the funding. Asked if he'd personally vote for it, he gave reporters a blunt "no." Asked about how the price tag looks to Americans being hammered at the gas pump by the fruits of the Trump-Netanyahu war on Iran, Alaska Sen. Lisa Murkowski replied, "Not good." 

The ballroom project increasingly seems like a midyear election gift from a tone-deaf Trump administration to Democratic candidates across the nation. In a recent poll, Americans oppose it by a lopsided 56%-to-28% margin. More than the cost itself, it's the juxtaposition of what looks like a vanity project against increasing financial hardships being imposed on everyday Americans by the war on Iran and Trump's tariffs.  

On Tuesday, Trump handed more such campaign fodder to Democrats when -- asked if Americans' financial woes were a motivator for making a peace deal with Iran -- Trump said, "Not even a little bit. The only thing that matters when I’m talking about Iran — they can’t have a nuclear weapon. I don’t think about Americans’ financial situation." Though he was clearly trying to emphasize the (dubious) security narrative behind the war, his failure to express empathy for struggling families turned his remark into a political weapon. 

President Trump is asked how much he considers Americans' financial situation when negotiating with Iran:

"Not even a little bit. The only thing that matters is they can't have a nuclear weapon. I don't think about Americans’ financial situation. I don't think about anybody." pic.twitter.com/BFxqVtZgQr

— The American Conservative (@amconmag) May 12, 2026 Tyler Durden Wed, 05/13/2026 - 15:05
Tyler Durden

Senate Confirms Kevin Warsh As Fed Chair In Most Partisan Vote Ever

Zero Rss
1 month ago
Senate Confirms Kevin Warsh As Fed Chair In Most Partisan Vote Ever

Update: In a largely party-line vote, the U.S. Senate on Wednesday confirmed President Donald Trump’s nominee Kevin Warsh to a 14-year term as the next Chair of the Federal Reserve, succeeding Jerome Powell whose term as chair ends this Friday.

The 54-45 vote was the slimmest confirmation margin ever for a head of a central bank, reflecting fears that he'll be Trump's puppet. 

Trump has made no secret that he expects rates to lower under Warsh after repeatedly slamming Powell for monetary policy Trump feels is too restrictive. 

Steve Bannon, however, doesn't think so...

Ahead of the vote, Trump ally Stephen K. Bannon used his “War Room” podcast to prepare supporters for disappointment. The former Trump strategist said fresh inflation data made it “highly unlikely” that Warsh would have “the flexibility to cut rates in June,” when he will chair the central bank’s policy meeting for the first time.

“This makes it very difficult for Warsh,” Bannon said Tuesday, hours after the Labor Department reported that April inflation had jumped to 3.8 percent.

His guest, conservative commentator Eric Bolling, projected no rate cuts through the end of the year and ventured that the Warsh-led Fed may even need a modest rate hike to curb inflation. -WaPo

Sen. John Fetterman was the only Democrat to support Warsh. 

Developing...

* * *

Authored by Andrew Moran via The Epoch Times,

Kevin Warsh will be returning to the Federal Reserve Board of Governors.

 

The U.S. Senate voted 51–45 to approve Warsh’s nomination to a 14-year term on the central bank’s board on May 12, joining six other members. Four senators did not file a vote.

Sen. John Fetterman (D-Pa.) crossed party lines to support President Donald Trump’s nominee.

Warsh’s tenure as Fed governor will run until 2040.

He previously served on the board from 2006 to 2011, when he resigned over differences regarding the leadership’s post-crisis quantitative easing program.

Governors serve 14-year terms to prevent political pressure.

Their roles consist of voting on monetary policy, supervising and regulating the financial system, and overseeing the Fed’s 12 regional banks.

The vote also marked the end of Stephen Miran’s brief tenure on the board.

Miran, who previously served as head of the White House’s Council of Economic Advisers, was nominated by the president last summer to fill the seat vacated by Adriana Kugler. It is unclear if he plans to return to the Trump administration.

Senators will next vote on Warsh’s confirmation as head of the Federal Reserve, which could happen as early as May 13.

Walking a Minefield

Warsh’s return to the Fed could be marred by challenges, mainly due to the 11-week-old Iranian conflict reviving price pressures across the U.S. economy.

April’s annual consumer inflation rate accelerated to 3.8 percent, the highest level since May 2023 and above consensus forecasts.

The war has lifted global energy prices, forcing drivers to pay more at the pump.

The national average for a gallon of gasoline—as of May 12—is parked at $4.50.

Structural inflation could also be under threat.

Twelve-month core inflation, which excludes volatile energy and food prices, edged higher to 2.8 percent, topping estimates.

Warsh has been a frequent critic of the Fed’s policy decisions.

He has argued that the central bank can lower interest rates as the artificial intelligence (AI) boom would be disinflationary and reduce business and consumer prices.

At the same time, Warsh has stated that the Fed should scale back its balance sheet use.

A point of contention is whether Warsh will maintain Fed independence.

He has reaffirmed his support for monetary autonomy. But it does not mean it is under threat if elected officials weigh in on policy, he said.

Kevin Warsh (L), U.S. President Donald Trump's nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve during his Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs confirmation hearing in Washington on April 21, 2026.  Andrew Harnik/Getty Images

“I do not believe the operational independence of monetary policy is particularly threatened when elected officials—presidents, senators, or members of the House—state their views on interest rates,” Warsh said in his opening remarks in front of the Senate Banking Committee.

Despite his clarification on Fed independence, there are still questions surrounding how he would navigate policy, says Rebecca Homkes, an economist and former fellow at the London School of Economics Center for Economic Performance.

“Warsh’s over-bullishness on AI’s impact on productivity should be more of a discussion, as we need the next Fed Chair to be working to steer a policy approach of better, robust data and research to understand this technology,” she told The Epoch Times.

“What’s raising more eyebrows is his insistence on his reform agenda, including changes to responsibilities, press briefings, and what topic areas they cover.”

Warsh has teased a series of changes he could bring to the Fed: updating long-standing economic models, reforming how the central bank communicates with the public, and potentially how the Fed targets inflation.

Lawrence Gillum, chief fixed-income strategist at LPL Financial, says Warsh’s approach to monetary policy would likely be far more traditional than the approach practiced over the past 20 years.

“Rather than leaving heavily on intervention and detailed promises about the future path of rates, Warsh has consistently argued for restraint, humility, and a greater reliance on incoming data,” Gillum said in a note emailed to The Epoch Times.

If confirmed, Warsh would head the June 16 to June 17 Federal Open Market Committee policy meeting.

Investors have priced in the expectation that the Fed will not lower interest rates at all this year. A growing chorus of traders has started forecasting a rate hike sometime in 2027.

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/13/2026 - 15:02
Tyler Durden

Gamma And Momentum: A Recipe For Cheers And Tears

Zero Rss
1 month ago
Gamma And Momentum: A Recipe For Cheers And Tears

Authored by Michael Lebowitz via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

Intel (INTC) shares have risen 90% over the past month and more than 200% since the start of the year. Its competitors, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and Micron (MU), are posting similar gains. Many other semiconductor stocks, along with some computer hardware companies, are the market’s latest AI darlings. Momentum and gamma are driving the outperformance, and, in their wake, a supportive narrative is trying to justify it.  

The narrative holds that the insatiable infrastructure buildout for AI, including data centers, GPUs/CPUs, networking equipment, and power grids, requires massive capital expenditure from the largest hyperscalers (Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and Meta). The suppliers of these products, including semiconductor and hardware producers, are the most direct beneficiaries.

AI will significantly improve the bottom line for many companies. But investors should be asking whether the stock prices have gotten too far ahead of fundamentals. The answer, in our opinion, is likely yes. As we wrote in Parabolic Semiconductor Rally Is Pricing In 2028 Already:

Here’s the part that should bother bulls the most. SOXX is trading at multiples that already reflect strong 2026 earnings. The current rally has likely already fully priced in 2026 earnings. From here, you are paying for 2027 and 2028 growth in a sector where the cycle has not been repealed. Semiconductors are still cyclical. Always have been. The day the AI capex cycle hiccups, even briefly, is the day this chart breaks.

To fully appreciate the recent astonishing performance, it’s worth looking beyond fundamentals and narratives to better understand how herding, momentum, and option delta and gamma can systematically drive prices higher and eventually lower. 

Momentum Creates Momentum

Financial momentum is the tendency for assets that have been rising to continue rising and those that have been falling to continue falling. Often, during a strong momentum phase, the pace of buying or selling increases, resulting in parabolic price gains, as we are witnessing with Intel and its competitors.

When a stock trends higher, investors increasingly notice the bullish momentum and buy it, which pushes the price higher and attracts even more buyers. This type of herding behavior can create a self-reinforcing cycle- buying begets more buying.

When momentum is strong, the pressure on new investors to join the trade or on existing ones to add to their positions is enormous. As these investors focus on the incredible rewards they might receive, they often lose sight of the trade’s fundamental justification. The result is a crowded trade with sometimes breathtaking gains, but ultimately a sharp reversal that strips profits from most participants. 

Retail and institutional momentum traders often use call options as a leveraged way to participate in price gains without buying the stock outright. Call options provide investors with limited downside risk and the potential for upside gains that can be multiples of the underlying stock’s price. Call buying can become a momentum accelerant, as we explain next.

What Is Delta

To better appreciate how options, particularly calls, can boost stock prices, which in turn adds momentum and fuels the herding behavior of millions of investors, we need to understand some option basics.

We start with delta. Delta measures how much an option’s price changes for every $1 move in the underlying stock. For instance, a call option with a delta of 0.50 will gain roughly $0.50 in value for every $1.00 increase in the stock price. Importantly, delta changes as the stock price moves. As shown in the hypothetical graph below, delta rises as the option approaches its strike price and falls as it moves below it. The non-linear rate at which delta changes is called gamma.

Delta is affected not only by how far the stock price is from the option’s strike price but also by implied volatility and time to expiration. Other smaller factors include put/call skew, dividends, and interest rates.

Gamma

Gamma quantifies the curvature of delta (the green line in the graph above). It is the rate at which an option’s delta changes for every $1 move in the underlying stock. For example, if a call option has a delta of 0.50 and a gamma of 0.05, a $1 rise in the stock pushes the delta to 0.55, and another $1 gain pushes it to 0.60, and so on. Think of it this way: delta tells you how much the option price will move per change in the stock, while gamma tells you how fast that relationship will change.

Gamma is highest for options closest to expiration. Thus, the recent surge in the number of very short-term and same-day expiry options (0dte) is significantly impacting options brokers, as we will explain.

Delta Hedging Can Drive Momentum

When an investor buys a call option, someone must be selling it to them. Most often, market makers and brokers fill that role. Their financial interest in selling options is to make money regardless of what the option price does, not by taking the opposite position of the options buyer. They try to ensure profits by hedging. 

Brokers hedge exposure by buying or selling shares of the underlying stock in proportion to the option’s delta. This process is called delta hedging.

Assume a broker sells an investor a call option with a delta of 0.50. The dealer will buy 50 shares of the stock for each option sold. If the delta suddenly jumps to 0.60, the dealer will buy 10 more shares. If the stock falls and the delta declines, the dealer will sell shares.

In isolation, this is simple hedging management that often has little impact on the markets. But when the options market becomes large enough relative to the stock market, this constant hedging activity itself begins to move prices. As they say, the tail is wagging the dog.

The graph below shows a sharp increase in call option trading over the past few years, resulting in significantly higher hedge-trading volume among option brokers.

Gamma Squeezes

The growing volumes in the options market, along with the popularity of very short-term and even same-day options, are intensifying broker hedge trading. At times, this heightened activity results in what is called a gamma squeeze. This occurs when a surge in call option buying forces hedgers to purchase shares at an accelerating rate, pushing the stock price higher. That higher price, in turn, forces hedgers to buy even more shares, pushing the price higher still. This reflexive loop can have a short-term, tremendous impact on the underlying stock price.

The conditions for a gamma squeeze typically require a few ingredients:

  • a stock with relatively thin float.

  • large buildup of near-the-money call options with short expiries.

  • enough momentum to start the feedback loop.

Avis (CAR) was the most recent example. CAR surged from roughly $150 in late March to nearly $850 in a matter of weeks before collapsing back to $150. Unlike semiconductor and hardware stocks, the gamma squeeze in CAR was more pronounced because its float was small and short interest was nearly 90%. That said, call option volumes spiked by roughly 10,000%, contributing to the surge in the stock price.

The Gamma Flip

If a gamma squeeze can set a stock price or market on fire, the gamma flip can pour water on it.

Dealers are never perfectly hedged. Thus, to quantify how their hedging activity might impact the market, it’s useful to know the degree to which they are over- or under-hedged. In market parlance, that is their net gamma position.

When dealers are net short gamma (they have sold more options than they have bought), they are forced to buy stocks when prices rise and sell when prices fall to stay hedged. Thus, when dealers collectively hold short-gamma positions, they have to chase the market; their hedging activities amplify price movements and volatility.

On the other hand, when dealers are net long gamma, the opposite occurs. They buy weakness and sell strength. Accordingly, these hedging activities serve as a natural market stabilizer, dampening volatility.

The gamma flip occurs at the price level where a dealer’s gamma exposure crosses from positive to negative territory, or vice versa. This level is calculated by options analytics firms and is increasingly closely watched by institutional traders. The gamma flip is something of an invisible gravitational boundary in the market.

The graph below, courtesy of Radar Options, shows that as of May 11, 2026, the S&P 500 Index is in a long-gamma position, supportive of an uptrend with reduced volatility. If it were to flip negative by falling below 7185, we should expect increased pressure for further downside and higher volatility.

Keep in mind the graph is for the S&P 500. Each individual stock has its own aggregate gamma exposure level, which can differ widely from the market.

Option Extremes Today

Dealer hedging is dynamic; thus, gamma exposure and flip levels are constantly in flux. The graph below, courtesy of ZeroHedge, shows that the volatility in dealers’ aggregate gamma positioning has been extreme recently. In just a six-week period, gamma exposure flipped from extremely short, which supported the rally from the late March lows, to one of the longest gamma positions on record.

The graphic below shows how extreme the rush into technology call options has been. The bottom-left graph shows that call skew on the Nasdaq (QQQ) is the highest it’s been in over the past year. Call skew measures the extent to which out-of-the-money calls trade at higher implied volatility than at-the-money calls. High skew reflects aggressive demand for upside calls, which drives up premiums on higher call strikes. High call skew is most common in individual momentum stocks and during gamma squeezes, when the options market prices in a higher probability of explosive upside than a normal distribution would suggest.

Bear in mind that the put skew is currently very low, signaling historically low demand for protection. 

Summary

Options were traditionally used for risk management purposes.  Yet their proliferation and widespread use by traders and gamblers have created a market structure that increasingly results in significant volatility and enormous price changes for entirely non-fundamental reasons. Thus, the risk management tool has become a market risk in and of itself.

As we have witnessed with CAR and are currently seeing with many technology stocks, a stock price can surge when a critical mass of investors generates a momentum signal, drawing in more investors and short-dated call buyers. Options brokers then feed the momentum as they are forced to buy as the stock price rises.

Similarly, as we also saw with CAR and will likely see with some semiconductor and hardware stocks, prices can drop sharply not because of fundamental developments, but simply because momentum gives way, gamma flips, and dealer hedging amplifies a modest decline into something more severe.

Sometimes stocks and markets completely ignore fundamentals and run higher on a self-reflexive loop. During these moments, prices get divorced from fundamentals, and individual stocks and/or markets can become fragile.

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/13/2026 - 14:45
Tyler Durden

Ex-Con Hacker Twins Fired - Proceed To Wipe Out 96 Government Databases In Minutes

Zero Rss
1 month ago
Ex-Con Hacker Twins Fired - Proceed To Wipe Out 96 Government Databases In Minutes

Note to employers: When you discover your twin brother employees are ex-cons who did time for hacking into the US State Department, and go to fire them, make sure you fully disable their access. 

February 2025, twin brothers Muneeb and Sohaib Akhter turned a routine job termination into one of the most brazen insider sabotage incidents in recent U.S. government history. Just minutes after being fired from Opexus - a Washington, D.C.-area contractor that provides critical case-management software to more than 45 federal agencies - the brothers allegedly launched a rapid digital assault that deleted approximately 96 government databases containing sensitive FOIA records, investigative files, and taxpayer data.

Muneeb and Sohaib Akhter

What made the case especially shocking was the brothers' prior history: both had served prison time for hacking federal systems a decade earlier. 

A Decade-Old Criminal Record

The Akhter brothers, both 34 and from Alexandria, Virginia, had a criminal past that Opexus completely missed - which, given what they do, is not great. In 2015, while working as contractors, they pleaded guilty to conspiracy to commit wire fraud, conspiracy to access protected computers without authorization, and related charges. Their crimes involved hacking into U.S. State Department systems and a private company, stealing personal data on coworkers, acquaintances, and even a federal investigator.

Muneeb received a 39-month prison sentence; Sohaib received 24 months. Both served their time and were released.

And yet... 

By 2023-2024, the brothers had landed engineering roles at Opexus (formerly known as AINS), a firm specializing in FedRAMP-certified case-management platforms. Its flagship products - FOIAXpress and the eCASE suite - help agencies process Freedom of Information Act requests, audits, investigations, EEO complaints, and congressional correspondence. Opexus systems host sensitive government data on servers in Ashburn, Virginia.

The company conducted standard background checks covering roughly seven years - which missed the 2015 convictions. Opexus later admitted that "additional diligence should have been applied" and that the individuals responsible for hiring the twins are no longer with the company.

Unbeknownst to Opexus at the time of termination, the brothers had been abusing their access for weeks. Muneeb had collected approximately 5,400 usernames and passwords from the company's network and built custom scripts to test them against external sites (including Marriott and DocuSign). He successfully logged into accounts and, in some cases, used victims' airline miles.

On February 1, 2025 - more than two weeks before their firing - Muneeb asked Sohaib for the plaintext password of an individual who had filed a complaint through the EEOC Public Portal. Sohaib ran a database query and provided it; Muneeb then used the credentials to access the complainant's email without authorization. This incident later became central to Sohaib's password-trafficking charge.

The Firing and the 56-Minute Rampage

On February 18, 2025, the FDIC flagged Sohaib's prior conviction during a background check for a potential new role at the FDIC Office of Inspector General. Opexus fired both brothers during a remote Microsoft Teams/HR meeting that ended around 4:50-4:55 p.m.

The offboarding was flawed: Muneeb's account remained active. ARS Technica has the timeline:

At 4:56 pm, Muneeb accessed a US government database that his company maintained. He "issued commands to prevent other users from connecting or making changes to the database, and then issued a command to delete the database," the government said.

At 4:58 pm, he wiped out a Department of Homeland Security database using the command "DROP DATABASE dhsproddb."

At 4:59 pm, he asked an AI tool, "How do i clear system logs from SQL servers after deleting databases?" He later asked, "How do you clear all event and application logs from Microsoft windows server 2012?"

In the space of a single hour, Muneeb deleted around 96 databases with US government information. He downloaded 1,805 files belonging to the EEOC and stashed them on a USB drive, then grabbed federal tax information for at least 450 people.

The brothers discussed the attack in real time. Sohaib observed Muneeb "cleaning out their database backups." They even queried an AI tool on how to clear SQL server logs and Windows event logs. They later reinstalled the operating systems on their company laptops to destroy evidence.

And What Else Did They Do? 

Based on the court documents (Superseding Indictment + Muneeb Akhter’s detailed Statement of Facts from his April 2026 plea deal), the brothers were up to quite a lot of malarkey. 

Massive extra data haul (1.2 million lines): Muneeb didn’t just steal ~5,400 usernames/passwords from Opexus. He also possessed a separate file containing ~1.2 million lines of full names, email addresses, phone numbers, physical addresses, and password hashes. This was stored across his personal laptop, Android phone, external hard drive, and cloud accounts.

The credential abuse went on for 10 months after they were fired: The database deletions happened on Feb 18, 2025, but Muneeb kept actively using the stolen credentials from May 2025 all the way until his arrest on December 3, 2025. He wrote custom Python scripts (one literally named marriott_checker.py), ran credential-stuffing attacks on hotels, airlines, and banks, and successfully logged into hundreds of victims’ accounts.

Sophisticated account takeovers with his own domains: He didn’t just log in - he changed victims’ recovery email addresses on airline, hotel, and bank accounts to addresses he controlled, such as [VictimName]@wardensys.com or @wardensystems.com (domains he owned). This let him lock the real owners out and keep using the accounts.

Real-time blackmail brainstorming during the deletion rampage: At ~5:12 p.m. on Feb 18 - while Muneeb was still deleting databases - the brothers literally discussed blackmailing Opexus. Sohaib said something to the effect of: “you shoulda had a kill script, like, blackmailing them for some money…” Muneeb shot it down, replying that it would be obvious proof of guilt. They also argued about whether to contact customers.

“Clean stuff up from the other house”: During the same conversation, Sohaib said: “We also gotta clean stuff up from the other house, man.” This strongly implies they had evidence or stolen data at a second location.

Muneeb fled with a government-issued PIV card: When Muneeb drove to Texas on Feb 24, 2025, he took his personal laptop, phone, and a Personal Identity Verification (PIV) card issued by a U.S. government agency. (PIV cards are the high-security smart cards federal employees/contractors use for system access.)

Other smaller but wild nuggets

  • A “co-conspirator” (identity not specified in the public docs) wiped both company laptops by reinstalling the OS on Feb 21–22.
  • Muneeb used stolen American Airlines miles twice: 29,000 miles for a real flight he actually took (SLC → DC on Nov 29, 2025) and 14,500 miles for another ticket he booked but didn’t use.
  • Muneeb had a separate aggravated identity theft count from August 2022 (pre-Opexus) involving someone’s passport and personal info.
Guns too!

A federal search warrant executed at Sohaib's Alexandria home on March 12, 2025, uncovered seven firearms (including M1 and M1A rifles, a Glenfield Model 60 .22 rifle, a Ruger .22 pistol, and a Colt .38 Special revolver) plus roughly 378 rounds of .30-caliber ammunition. Under Virginia law at the time, these guns and the ammunition were fully legal for a non-prohibited person to own - no assault-weapon ban, no magazine limits, no restrictions on the specific models. The only prohibition was Sohaib's status as a convicted felon, which made possession illegal under federal law (18 U.S.C. § 922(g)).

The brothers were arrested on December 3, 2025. Muneeb ultimately pleaded guilty to major charges, including computer fraud and destruction of records. Sohaib went to trial.

On May 7, 2026, a federal jury in Alexandria convicted Sohaib Akhter on three counts: conspiracy to commit computer fraud, password trafficking, and possession of a firearm by a prohibited person. He faces a maximum of 21 years in prison and is scheduled for sentencing on September 9, 2026. Muneeb faces additional charges and potential penalties up to 45 years.

So, whoops...

As an aside, remember when House Democrats let the Awan Brothers go hog wild in their network for 13 years, were fired for suspected unauthorized server access, procurement irregularities, and possible data exfiltration, and were one of them was able to plead guilty to one count of making a false statement on a loan application and sentenced to time served - only to then receive an $850,000 wrongful termination settlement by the five Pakistani-American tech workers involved in the saga? Crazy!

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/13/2026 - 14:30
Tyler Durden

Gunfire Erupts Inside Philippine Senate As Former 'Drug War' Enforcer Evades International Arrest Warrant

Zero Rss
1 month ago
Gunfire Erupts Inside Philippine Senate As Former 'Drug War' Enforcer Evades International Arrest Warrant

At least a dozen gunshots rang out inside the Philippine Senate building in Manila earlier on Wednesday as police and marines moved to arrest Senator Ronald "Bato" Dela Rosa on an International Criminal Court warrant for alleged crimes against humanity linked to former President Rodrigo Duterte's brutal war on drugs, a campaign that left more than 6,000 suspected drug dealers dead in operations.

Reuters reports that it is unclear who fired the burst of shots inside the Senate building, but it occurred as Dela Rosa was taking refuge inside the building amid efforts to arrest the senator on an ICC warrant for alleged crimes against humanity.

BREAKING:

Gunfire erupts inside the Philippine Senate 🇵🇭

A volley of more than a dozen gunshots broke out inside the Senate building during a tense standoff involving Senator Ronald “Bato” dela Rosa.

The former national police chief under Rodrigo Duterte has been holed up in… pic.twitter.com/amR09Xm3vr

— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) May 13, 2026

Other media outlets captured the chaotic moments when shots rang out in the Senate building's hallway.

"About 15 shots were fired, and we were forced to pull back," Al Jazeera reporter Jamela Alindogan said, adding that security forces then ordered the evacuation of the building.

Gunshots have been heard in the Philippine senate, where Senator Ronald Dela Rosa, who is wanted by the ICC for crimes against humanity, remains holed up to evade arrest.

Military personnel reportedly arrived inside the senate building, some carrying assault rifles. pic.twitter.com/AjL4Yx4f12

— Al Jazeera Breaking News (@AJENews) May 13, 2026

Dela Rosa posted a video on Facebook earlier, anticipating his arrest, and urged citizens to come to the Senate building to block his arrest: "I am appealing to you. I hope you can help me. Do not allow another Filipino to be brought to The Hague."

On Tuesday, Dela Rosa, a former police chief and top enforcer of former President Rodrigo Duterte's war on drugs, urged President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. not to allow the ICC to arrest him.

The ICC unsealed its arrest warrant on Monday, accusing Dela Rosa of the same crimes as Duterte, who is awaiting trial in the Netherlands.

Al Jazeera's Alindogan said that while violent incidents are not unusual in Manila, it was highly unusual for this type of chaotic event to occur in the Senate building, "where there's supposed to be some sort of civility."

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/13/2026 - 13:55
Tyler Durden

Ugly, Tailing 30Y Auction Makes History With First 5%+ Yield Since The Great Quant Crash Of Aug 2007

Zero Rss
1 month ago
Ugly, Tailing 30Y Auction Makes History With First 5%+ Yield Since The Great Quant Crash Of Aug 2007

Moments ago, the last refunding auction of the week, the sale of $25BN in 30Y paper, made history: it was the first 30Y auction to print with a high yield above 5%, and a coupon of 5%, since August 2007... which as veteran traders will recall was the month of the historic quant crash which marked the S&P highs at the time and eventually culminated in the global financial crisis. 

The auction priced at a high yield of 5.046%, up sharply from 4.876% in April, and tailed the 5.041% When Issued by 0.5bps, the second consecutive tail following 4 stop-throughs. 

But, as noted above, what is more notable was that this was the first 5% interest rate coupon 30Y auction, and the the first 30Y auction with a high yield above 5% since... August 2007 when surging rates sparked a quant crash. Come to think of it, unlike retail momentum chasers, quants have had a terrible month. How much longer can they last? But we digress... 

Going back to the auction, the uglyness was all around: the bid to cover was 2.303, down from 2.385, below the 2.43 six auction average and the lowest since Nob 2025.

Internals were not quite as bad, with Indirects taking down 66.6%, up from 64.1% in April and just below the 66.8% recent average. And with Directs awarded 21.74%, Dealers were left with 11.7%. 

Overall, this was an ugly, tailing auction, but the question on everyone's lips is whether today's quction will - like in August 2007 - be the VaR shock equivalent of a bond auction that pops this particular bubble. For the answer keep a close eye on quants who are suffering badly. 

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/13/2026 - 13:35
Tyler Durden

Imminent Supreme Court Rulings To Watch For

Zero Rss
1 month ago
Imminent Supreme Court Rulings To Watch For

Authored by Sam Dorman via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Birthright citizenship, girls sports, the definition of Election Day, and other hot-button topics are on the line in upcoming Supreme Court decisions.

Illustration by The Epoch Times, Madalina Kilroy/The Epoch Times

The court’s 2025–2026 term is expected to end in June with a series of rulings that could impact social issues and President Donald Trump’s agenda.

The last scheduled oral argument was held on April 29; the justices considered whether Trump wrongfully terminated deportation protections for thousands of Haitian and Syrian nationals. That decision and a ruling on Trump’s order restricting birthright citizenship could influence immigration policy for decades to come.

So far, the court has already issued opinions on Trump’s tariffs and redistricting. Its remaining decisions could change how elections are conducted, as well as alter the balance of power between Congress and the president.

Here are the main decisions expected before the end of June.

Birthright Citizenship

A key part of Trump’s immigration agenda has been his attempt to limit who receives American citizenship. The 14th Amendment states that “all persons born or naturalized in the United States, and subject to the jurisdiction thereof, are citizens of the United States and of the State wherein they reside.”

Historically, the executive branch interpreted this amendment to grant citizenship to babies born to illegal immigrants. Trump changed this interpretation on his first day in office, passing an executive order stating that the amendment only applied to children who had at least one parent with citizenship or lawful permanent residency.

In Trump v. Barbara, the president asked the Supreme Court to intervene after a federal judge blocked his executive order. During oral argument on April 1, the Justice Department said that parents should be legal residents or have some kind of allegiance to the United States before their children receive citizenship. The justices, however, seemed skeptical and indicated they may view citizenship more broadly.

Migrants, including a pregnant Haitian woman seeking to give birth in the United States, are apprehended by a U.S. Border Patrol agent in Yuma, Ariz., on Dec. 7, 2021. The Supreme Court is expected to rule on the constitutionality of a Trump executive order aimed at restricting birthright citizenship before the end of June. John Moore/Getty Images Girls Sports

Another highly anticipated decision focuses on Idaho’s and West Virginia’s laws preventing males from participating in girls and women’s sports. Federal appeals courts blocked those laws, stating that they conflict with another portion of the 14th Amendment known as the equal protection clause. That clause generally prohibits laws that classify or discriminate on the basis of certain characteristics.

The appeals courts said the state laws conflict with that clause because they classify individuals on the basis of their sex and “transgender status.” The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Fourth Circuit also said West Virginia’s law violated Title IX of the Civil Rights Act. That law prohibits sex-based discrimination in federally funded education.

The justices heard oral argument in January for the cases, known as Little v. Hecox and West Virginia v. B.P.J. Overall, the justices seemed inclined to uphold the states’ laws.

People take part in a rally outside the U.S. Supreme Court as justices hear arguments in two cases in which states have banned males from participating in female-only sports in Washington on Jan. 13, 2025. Madalina Kilroy/The Epoch Times Monsanto’s Weedkiller

Monsanto’s herbicide, known as Roundup, has cost the company millions of dollars following lawsuits alleging one of its ingredients, glyphosate, increases cancer risk.

One of those lawsuits made it to the Supreme Court in April and could determine how much Monsanto has to pay in future lawsuits. The case, Monsanto v. Durnell, focused on a Missouri jury that held the company liable for not warning about glyphosate’s purported risks.

Monsanto told the Supreme Court that the jury’s verdict was based on a faulty interpretation of the law. The jury said Monsanto was liable under a Missouri law that requires warnings for consumer products. Monsanto argued that the jury interpreted the law in a way that conflicted with another law passed at the federal level.

The Supreme Court’s eventual decision is expected to touch on a legal doctrine known as preemption, which says that federal law takes precedence over state law when there is a conflict between the two. In this case, Monsanto said the Federal Insecticide, Fungicide, and Rodenticide Act should take precedence.

“The People vs. the Poison” protesters rallied to protest Bayer/Monsanto regarding cancer-linked risks from the Roundup weedkiller outside the U.S. Supreme Court in Washington on April 27, 2026. Tasos Katopodis/Getty Images

That law gives the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency authority to regulate chemicals such as glyphosate. Because the agency already approved glyphosate’s use and didn’t require additional warnings, Monsanto said Missouri couldn’t require more either. Durnell argued that the verdict didn’t conflict with federal law and that Missouri should be able to protect its citizens’ health.

Trump’s Ability to Fire Bureaucrats

One of the main legal complaints leveled during Trump’s second administration was that he fired high-level bureaucrats without good reason. Leaders of so-called “independent” agencies, such as the Federal Trade Commission (FTC), sued, alleging that Trump didn’t show the type of cause federal law required of presidents when firing officials.

In Trump v. Slaughter, Trump asked the Supreme Court to intervene after a lower court blocked his attempt to fire FTC Commissioner Rebecca Slaughter. The justices seemed inclined in December 2025 to not just allow her firing, but also expand the authority presidents have in removing bureaucrats like her.

Their eventual decision could overturn a 90-year-old precedent from Humphrey’s Executor v. United States. In that 1935 case, the Supreme Court held that former President Franklin D. Roosevelt wrongly fired a former FTC commissioner and that Congress could restrict his ability to do so.

The Trump administration argues that the Constitution gives the president greater authority and that Congress cannot use laws such as the FTC Act to restrict his ability to remove bureaucrats.

Then-Federal Trade Commissioner Rebecca Slaughter participates in a privacy roundtable at CES 2020 at the Las Vegas Convention Center in Las Vegas on Jan. 7, 2020. David Becker/Getty Images Fed Independence

Like the FTC Act, another law, known as the Federal Reserve Act, said presidents couldn’t remove high-level officials without cause. That was the law that Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook cited when she challenged Trump’s attempt to fire her last year.

Trump removed Cook while citing allegations that she committed mortgage fraud, something she has denied. During oral argument in January, the Supreme Court wrestled with multiple questions: whether Trump gave Cook enough due process before firing her, how the firing would impact the economy, and how Trump’s view of his authority would impact the Federal Reserve’s independence.

Overall, the justices seemed inclined to side with Cook. The case, Trump v. Cook, followed other decisions in which the Supreme Court suggested that the Federal Reserve was more independent than agencies such as the FTC and that its members therefore deserved additional protections.

Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook (R) arrives for a board meeting at the Federal Reserve building in Washington on March 19, 2026. Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images Definition of ‘Election Day’

The 2020 presidential election reinvigorated debate over mail-in ballots, a controversial method of voting that Trump and others argue is vulnerable to fraud. Multiple states, including Mississippi, have allowed mail-in ballots to be counted after Election Day as long as they are postmarked on or before that day.

Trump and the Republican National Committee argue that practice violates a federal law that defines Election Day as “the Tuesday next after the first Monday in November.”

When the case, Watson v. Republican National Committee, reached the Supreme Court, the Trump administration supported the committee’s position.

“‘Election day’ was the day all voting needed to be completed; and the act of voting was not complete until a ballot had been officially received,” the Justice Department told the court.

Mississippi argues the law simply requires that voters make their choice by Election Day, not that their ballots are counted.

Election officials count absentee ballots at a polling place located in the Town of Beloit fire station near Beloit, Wis., on Nov. 3, 2020. Scott Olson/Getty Images

During oral argument in March, the justices seemed more likely to side with the committee. “We’re moving in this direction,” Justice Samuel Alito said. “We don’t have Election Day anymore. We have election month or we have election months.”

Deportation Protections

The court’s most recent oral argument focused on the Department of Homeland Security’s termination of deportation protections for thousands of Haitians and Syrians. “Temporary protected status” prevents nationals of certain countries from being removed if conditions in their home countries would make returning unsafe.

Under President Barack Obama, the department granted that status for Haiti, which was impacted by the 2010 earthquake, and Syria, which has seen ongoing political turmoil and armed conflict.

Former Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem terminated those protections last year, prompting lawsuits and federal judges’ orders blocking those terminations.

The justices heard oral argument in the cases, known as Mullin v. Doe and Trump v. Miot, on April 29. They considered whether those judges exceeded their authority under the Immigration and Nationality Act, which generally prohibits judicial review of the department’s determinations about temporary protected status.

Guerline Jozef, co-founder and Executive Director of Haitian Bridge Alliance, speaks in front of the U.S. Supreme Court in Washington on March 16, 2026. The Court agreed on March 16 to consider the Trump administration’s bid to strip Haitians and Syrians of temporary deportation protections. The Department of Homeland Security has announced plans to end so-called Temporary Protected Status for some 350,000 Haitians and 6,000 Syrians. Roberto Schmidt/AFP via Getty Images

Lower court judges, however, said the administration still had to follow certain procedures, but that it didn’t when it terminated those protections. The justices also considered a federal judge’s argument that the administration likely acted with racial animus toward Haitians and therefore violated the Constitution.

Campaign Finance

How much protection does the First Amendment afford political parties when they spend money on campaigns? That’s one of the questions the Supreme Court is expected to address in a case called National Republican Senatorial Committee v. Federal Election Committee.

The case originated with a lawsuit brought by then-Senate candidate JD Vance, who argued that Congress violated the First Amendment with the Federal Election Campaign Act. That law restricts how much political parties and candidates’ campaigns can coordinate their spending.

The Supreme Court upheld that restriction in 2001 on the basis that coordination opened a backdoor for corruption. In its upcoming decision, the court could maintain its prior position or overrule itself while siding with Republicans.

Read the rest here...

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/13/2026 - 13:35
Tyler Durden

Up To $170 Billion Needed To Secure Full Domestic Nuclear Fuel Supply Chain

Zero Rss
1 month ago
Up To $170 Billion Needed To Secure Full Domestic Nuclear Fuel Supply Chain

To support current commercial nuclear operations, plus 300 GW of new nuclear capacity for a total of roughly 400 GW by 2050, all fueled domestically, the country would need to invest between $105 billion and $170 billion across the entire nuclear fuel cycle.

Is it still called a bottleneck if the entire industry is the problem? 

The consulting firm McKinsey & Company used the most aspirational scenario from the Trump administration’s May 2025 executive orders as its benchmark for their recent report. That means rebuilding capacity from mining and milling through conversion, enrichment, fabrication, and even reprocessing.

It's looking more and more like the $2.7 billion award from the DOE for domestic enrichment barely scratches the surface:

  • $15-20 billion for mining and milling
  • $30-45 billion for conversion
  • $30-40 billion for enrichment
  • $10-20 billion for fabrication
  • $20-45 billion for reprocessing

These figures assume a mix of new and existing reactors, including Gen IV designs that will demand high-assay low-enriched uranium (HALEU).

We have documented the vulnerabilities for months. Today the United States imports about 99 percent of the raw uranium ore needed for its commercial fleet… 

With milling capacity effectively nonexistent and conversion limited to a single operating facility… 

And enrichment capacity covers only about one-third of domestic needs…

The gaps leave utilities exposed to geopolitical risks and price volatility, a point we highlighted when uranium spot prices pulled back earlier this year even as long-term supply deficits widened…

Uranium: the next gold pic.twitter.com/2SSjvRkdSg

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) December 12, 2025

Progress is

Uranium: the next gold pic.twitter.com/2SSjvRkdSg

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) December 12, 2025 ">accelerating, however. We reported on the DOE’s Nuclear Fuel Cycle Defense Production Act Consortium, which has met repeatedly to map out a seven-year “Nuclear Dominance – 3 by 33” plan covering every link from mining to reprocessing. 

DOE has also awarded nearly $3 billion for enrichment projects, including $900 million each to Centrus Energy and General Matter, while the Export-Import Bank has backed up to $4.2 billion in additional financing. Centrus recently committed $560 million to scale centrifuge manufacturing in Oak Ridge, and we covered its joint-venture discussions with Oklo for HALEU deconversion services.

The private sector is also making progress on their own, not wanting to wait for the government to sort itself out and attempt to take market share while it's up for grabs. 

Uranium Energy Corp is expanding ISR mining and advancing conversion licensing. New entrants like FluxPoint Energy and LIS Technologies are targeting conversion and next-generation laser enrichment facilities, aiming for commercial operations before 2030. 

We also noted Goldman Sachs’ updates showing persistent supply-demand mismatches that continue to support higher uranium prices over the coming decades.

McKinsey stresses that capital alone will not suffice. Permitting reform, infrastructure build-out, workforce development, and advanced technologies will prove critical to compressing the long lead times inherent in fuel-cycle projects. The firm acknowledges 100% domestic sourcing will prove challenging, yet the analysis underscores that options exist if stakeholders maintain focus.
 

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/13/2026 - 13:00
Tyler Durden

B200s Or B-2s?

Zero Rss
1 month ago
B200s Or B-2s?

By Bas van Geffen, senior macro strategist of Rabobank

Concerns about the Middle East continued to dictate markets yesterday. The Strait of Hormuz remains closed, and there were no signs that this will change soon. Oil prices rose further. Dated Brent jumped 5% on the day to top $111.

Alongside the rise in benchmark energy prices, yields increased too. 10y US Treasury yields closed around 5bp higher, and 10y German Bund yields rose 6bp to 3.1%, dragging broader EUR yields up. Equities struggled. European bourses closed around 1.5% lower, but the S&P pared most of its losses after the European close, so the Euro Stoxx index may catch up to its US counterpart today.

This reversal happened after oil prices came off their intraday highs, and as news broke that Nvidia CEO Huang will join the US delegation to China. President Trump indicated that he wants to focus on economic issues during his summit with President Xi, more so than on geopolitical issues in the Middle East. Markets certainly seem hopeful that Trump and Xi will discuss B200 chips rather than B-2 bombers.

Of course, the Iran war complicates negotiations between the two leaders. China agrees to oppose any toll scheme for safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz, according to the US State Department. Meanwhile, Iraq and Pakistan have reportedly made deals with Iran to safeguard oil and LNG shipments from the Gulf – underscoring that Iran is able to effectively control the flow of energy through the Strait of Hormuz. China has also further diversified its oil imports. This may make China more resilient to prolonged disruptions in Hormuz, while it also cuts off more potential income for Iran.

But China will probably want something in return. President Trump will reportedly discuss US weapons sales to Taiwan with Xi, breaking with a decades-long US tradition. US allies in Asia are alarmed that Trump may agree to Xi’s request to delay or stop deliveries. That’s a longer-term geopolitical risk, but markets may shrug off any such potential concessions if the US and China report progress on economic issues.

And any optimism from the Trump-Xi summit may be overshadowed by developments in the Middle East. It’s unlikely that tensions will flare up again during the summit, but that’s only two days of respite. On his way to China, President Trump told reporters that stopping Iran’s nuclear programme outweighs Americans’ economic pain. The US presidents’ comments add to concerns that tensions in the Middle East may flare up again after the summit.

Adding further unease about the US’ next steps in the Middle East, the Wall Street Journal reports that the US president spoke with his U.A.E. counterpart to discuss “mutual interests.” This news follows on the WSJ’ report that the United Arab Emirates had secretly carried out military strikes in Iran.

Elsewhere, gilt yields’ rollercoaster ride continues, as domestic politics stack on top of geopolitical risks. Even the BBC is talking about intraday moves in gilts now, which is never a sign that things are going well. Pressure on a defiant PM Starmer is building. Several ministers resigned from their posts yesterday, after dozens of MPs had already called on Starmer to resign. Today, the 11 unions that support the Labour party are expected to issue a joint statement that calls for a roadmap to a new party leader into the next general elections.

Uncertainty about the UK’s leadership continues to weigh on both UK sovereign yields and the currency.

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/13/2026 - 12:45
Tyler Durden

Qatar Asks Vessels At Key LNG Port To Go Dark for Safety

Zero Rss
1 month ago
Qatar Asks Vessels At Key LNG Port To Go Dark for Safety

Submitted by Charles Kennedy of OilPrice.com

Qatar has requested LNG vessels near its Ras Laffan LNG port to switch off their transponders as part of safety measures at the key export port of the world’s second-largest LNG exporter before the war, anonymous sources with knowledge of the plan told Bloomberg on Tuesday.  

The de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz has trapped about 20% of daily global LNG flows, mostly those previously shipping out of Qatar and part of the UAE’s LNG flows. 

In addition, Iranian drone and missile strikes on energy infrastructure in the region has damaged Qatar’s key LNG liquefaction complex Ras Laffan, the world’s single largest such facility. Due to the attacks, QatarEnergy has been forced to declare force majeure for up to five years on some long-term LNG contracts and has advised that full capacity could take up to five years to restore following extensive damage from the strikes. 

The waters around Qatar have seen increased security threats since the war began on February 28. After more than two months of total blockage of Qatari shipments out of the Strait of Hormuz, the major Gulf LNG exporter is now apparently seeking to avoid being targeted. 

At least nine LNG tankers that were anchored near Qatar stopped sending signals via their Automatic Identification System from May 11, vessel-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg showed, in a sign that Qatar may have indeed asked ships to go dark to avoid being targeted. 

A tanker laden with LNG from Qatar successfully passed the Strait of Hormuz this weekend, the first such transit since February 28.

Crude tankers have also successfully exited the Strait in recent days, after going dark, according to shipping data cited by Reuters. 

“Commercial shipping and maritime security activity around the Strait of Hormuz are increasingly shifting into dark or emissions-controlled conditions,” maritime intelligence firm Windward said on Monday.  

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/13/2026 - 12:30
Tyler Durden

Goldman Flags Troubling Mortgage Delinquency Rise Across This U.S. Region

Zero Rss
1 month ago
Goldman Flags Troubling Mortgage Delinquency Rise Across This U.S. Region

Mortgage delinquencies fell slightly in March, with the first-lien delinquency rate declining to 3.35%, down 37 basis points from February, as seasonal factors and tax refunds supported borrowers.

The real estate and mortgage industry outlet HousingWire cited Intercontinental Exchange’s May 2026 Mortgage Monitor report, which showed that while the overall mortgage delinquency rate fell in March, there was still concern over serious delinquencies and foreclosures, which are up by 154,000 borrowers from one year ago.

The increase was driven mostly by FHA loans, which rose by 164,000 and now account for a record 55% of seriously past-due mortgages. Overall, 1.6% of active mortgages are seriously delinquent, up 20% year over year.

A lot of questions here...

During the Biden administration, H-1B visa holders were buying houses with 97-100% financing. 97% would come from the FHA, with the rest coming from state first-time home buyer programs.

Zero money down. Thanks to programs that were supposed to be helping low-income American… https://t.co/0ZaLGV0Wru pic.twitter.com/WvlRjgYeJV

— Robert Sterling (@RobertMSterling) May 13, 2026

Adding to the mortgage delinquency story is Goldman analyst Jason Acosta, who released a note earlier today, showing what he described to clients as the "chart of the day."

The chart indicates that mortgage past-due rates are highest across parts of the Deep South, with Mississippi and Louisiana as the worst-performing states, followed by elevated stress in Alabama, Texas, Indiana, Georgia, West Virginia, Oklahoma, Maryland, Pennsylvania, and others.

"On a national level, mortgage delinquencies eased in March, yet higher-severity stress remained elevated even amid the strongest monthly gain in U.S. home prices in two years," Acosta said.

He added, "We just released a new widget looking at past-due rates on a state-by-state basis below, with updates incoming to select between ranges of 30-59 days, 60-89 days, and 90 days+."

Here is the chart: What is the mortgage past-due rate by state?

Latest on the housing market:

  • Housing Market's Crucial "Spring Selling Season" Is In Tatters

The read we have here is that mortgage distress is becoming increasingly concentrated in lower-income Southern states, even as the national delinquency rate improved modestly overall.

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/13/2026 - 12:15
Tyler Durden

Treasury Department Alerts US Banks To Suspected Iranian Money Laundering Efforts

Zero Rss
1 month ago
Treasury Department Alerts US Banks To Suspected Iranian Money Laundering Efforts

Authored by Victoria Friedman via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The U.S. Treasury Department’s Financial Crimes ​Enforcement Network (FinCEN) on May 11 issued an alert to financial institutions warning them of efforts by ​the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) to evade sanctions.

The U.S. Department of the Treasury in Washington on June 30, 2025.Madalina Kilroy/The Epoch Times

FinCEN said in a statement that the IRGC has been facilitating and laundering the proceeds of illicit oil sales using networks of financial facilitators and shell companies. The alert provides red flags on the IRGC’s oil smuggling, digital assets, and front-company abuse to aid financial institutions in detecting and reporting suspicious activity, the statement said.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that financial institutions have a responsibility to stop this activity.

“Degraded by Economic Fury, the Iranian military is desperately trying to fund its weapons programs and terrorist proxies,” Bessent said.

“Treasury will continue to deny the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps access to the financial networks it exploits to fund its terrorist acts. Financial institutions should be on notice that they have a responsibility to detect suspicious activity and stop it in its tracks.”

The Treasury network describes the IRGC as a parallel organization to Tehran’s regular armed forces, which reports directly to the leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei. The IRGC is a U.S.-designated foreign terrorist organization.

Shadow Banking

FinCEN says the IRGC can make money from oil sales by misrepresenting its commercial activities. It smuggles oil using a “shadow fleet” of vessels that operate outside normal maritime rules and are often owned and operated by companies outside Iran.

Proceeds are then laundered through “shadow banking” networks to sell their oil and commodities abroad.

“By using front company accounts outside Iran to receive and remit payments, sanctioned entities like the IRGC are able to conduct transactions through the international financial system without repatriating funds to Iran,” FinCEN said.

The network says that with these proceeds, Iran can fund the procurement and development of weapons, as well as fund terrorist activity abroad.

Sanctions on Iran

The alert comes after President Donald Trump said on May 11 that a ceasefire with Iran was on “life support.”

The president’s remarks follow Tehran’s proposal to end the war over the weekend.

“I would call it the weakest right now after reading that piece of garbage they sent us,” Trump told reporters at the White House. “I didn’t even finish reading it.”

A ceasefire between the United States and Iran went into effect in April, ending weeks of U.S. and Israeli strikes on the country that started on Feb. 28.

The Strait of Hormuz, a key transit point for oil and natural gas, has remained effectively closed in the meantime, sending oil prices surging and rattling stock markets worldwide.

In the meantime, the U.S. military has imposed a naval blockade on Iranian ports. The U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) said on May 11 that 62 commercial ships have been redirected and four ships disabled as it enforced the blockade.

Also on Monday, the U.S. Treasury Department announced sanctions against 12 new targets as part of its “Economic Fury” initiative to disrupt Tehran’s economic and military capacity.

The Treasury said it had designated 12 individuals and entities for their roles in enabling the IRGC’s sale and shipment of Iranian oil to China.

“The IRGC relies on front companies in permissive economic jurisdictions to obfuscate its role in oil sales and funnel the revenue to the Iranian regime. Instead of using this revenue to support the struggling Iranian people, the regime directs it toward weapons development, backing terrorist proxies, and funding security forces that suppress citizens’ freedoms,” the Treasury said.

Joseph Lord and Jack Phillips contributed to this report.

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/13/2026 - 12:00
Tyler Durden

Palmer Luckey's Anduril Secures $5B At $61B Valuation To Supercharge Killer Drone Production

Zero Rss
1 month ago
Palmer Luckey's Anduril Secures $5B At $61B Valuation To Supercharge Killer Drone Production

Palmer Luckey's Anduril announced a $5 billion Series H funding round at a $61 billion valuation, led by Thrive Capital and Andreessen Horowitz. This comes as President Trump's 'war economy' and the rise of 'war unicorns' gain momentum.

Anduril CEO Brian Schimpf wrote in a statement about the Series H funding round, indicating the "financing reflects that shift, and it gives us the ability to continue investing aggressively in manufacturing capacity, research and development, and the infrastructure required to build and field advanced defense systems at scale."

Luckey's Anduril is a new breed of defense technology company that builds autonomous weapons systems, drones, counter-drone platforms, surveillance networks, and AI-powered command-and-control software for the US military.

While most of Silicon Valley has gone soft and signed peace pacts with one another not to dual-use their technology for the military, we have diligently covered rising war unicorns and the Trump administration's push to drive innovation in a space controlled by legacy primes, such as Boeing and Lockheed.

Here are Anduril's products:

  • Fury, an autonomous fighter-style aircraft

  • Roadrunner and Anvil, counter-drone interceptors

  • Ghost, a tactical unmanned aircraft

  • Barracuda, a family of autonomous cruise missile-like systems

  • Autonomous undersea vehicles and broader defense networking tools

Related:

  • Race To Refill U.S. Weapons Stockpiles Will Supercharge War Economy

  • L3Harris' Missile Business Files To Go Public As Trump's War Economy Prepares For Launch

  • War Economy Returns: From Trucks To Tanks, Pentagon Looks To Automakers To Rebuild America's Arsenal

  • DOGE Team At Pentagon Is Urgently Trying To Overhaul America's Lagging Drone Program

And there's this:

  • Ukraine, U.S. Draft Defense Deal To Supercharge America's Kamikaze Drone Production 

Follow the money:

  • "Serve Your Country": Uncle Sam Seeks Investment Bankers For 'Economic Defense Unit'

The war economy, reshoring, rare earths, and data center buildouts are some of Trump's economic boom agenda.

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/13/2026 - 11:45
Tyler Durden

Ireland Convicts 78-Year-Old Preacher For Preaching Near Abortion Clinic

Zero Rss
1 month ago
Ireland Convicts 78-Year-Old Preacher For Preaching Near Abortion Clinic

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

Ireland is finally safe.

Clive Johnston has been convicted and can no longer menace the public.

Johnson, 78, is a retired pastor who committed the heinous offense of preaching near the Causeway Hospital in Coleraine.

That was considered within the “safe access zone” under Northern Ireland’s Abortion Services (Safe Access Zones) Act.

The Act prohibits “influencing,” “preventing or impeding access,” or “causing harassment, alarm or distress” to a protected person within 100 meters (about 328 feet) of facilities where abortions are performed.

So Johnson was found guilty of “influencing” inside the protected zone and fined 450 pounds (about $614).

Northern Ireland’s Public Prosecution Service told Fox News Digital, “The defendant was found guilty and convicted by the court of doing an act in a safe access zone with the intent of or being reckless as to whether it had the effect of influencing a protected person attending the premises; and failing to comply with a direction to leave a safe access zone.”

The language of the law is absurdly vague and abusively broad. What constitutes an “influence” is undefined and could include any religious, political, or social exchange. Would it include encouragements to have abortions?

It is equally perverse to treat praying or preaching the same as blocking or impeding access to a clinic. Finally, a hospital engages in a wide array of activities that raise religious or political issues that can be the subject of free speech.

We previously saw several cases in the United Kingdom where people were arrested for silently praying near abortion clinics.

For its part, Ireland has been a leader in censorship and the criminalization of speech. As the leader of the Irish Green Party proclaimed, “We are restricting freedom for the public good.”

By the way, his offense was reading John 3:16, including “For God so loved the world that he gave his one and only Son, that whoever believes him shall not perish but have eternal life.”

What could perish in Ireland and the United Kingdom is free expression as speech regulators target bad influences under time, place, and manner laws.

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/13/2026 - 11:30
Tyler Durden

U.S. Wheat Crop Forecast To Hit Half-Century Low As Drought Hits Breadbasket

Zero Rss
1 month ago
U.S. Wheat Crop Forecast To Hit Half-Century Low As Drought Hits Breadbasket

Chicago wheat futures surged on Tuesday, hitting two-year highs after the USDA's latest WASDE report signaled a much tighter U.S. supply outlook than traders had anticipated.

Production stress across America's breadbasket is now converging with a megadrought and mounting fertilizer constraints, adding upward pressure on prices at a time when global food prices are rising.

🌾Due to poor crop health and a record-low planted area, the United States will produce the smallest wheat volume since 1972.

2026 winter wheat output (67% of total output) by class is seen at the lowest levels since:
All winter: 1965
Hard red winter: 1957
Soft red winter: 2020 pic.twitter.com/OcIP3DA0VS

— Karen Braun (@kannbwx) May 12, 2026

The USDA forecast 2026/27 U.S. all-wheat production at 1.56 billion bushels, sharply below Wall Street expectations of around 1.74 billion, marking the smallest harvest since 1972.

🇺🇸The U.S. in 2026 is set to harvest the smallest wheat crop in 54 years.

Weather has challenged winter wheat this year and condition ratings have plunged. Pairing low yield with low planted area, USDA projects the smallest U.S. winter wheat harvest since 1965. pic.twitter.com/xe2alJOPyr

— Karen Braun (@kannbwx) May 12, 2026

After the report on Tuesday, Chicago wheat futures jumped to their highest level since May 2024.

The latest WASDE report should come as no surprise to readers, as we have been closely tracking the intensifying drought stress plaguing the U.S. agricultural market:

  • Drought Engulfs 60% Of U.S. As Farmers Begin Spring Planting

  • UBS Warns Drought Shock Unfolding Across Breadbasket Of America

  • Wheat Spread Blows Out As Drought Chaos Plagues America's Breadbasket

Saxo commodities head Ole Hansen penned a note on Wednesday, highlighting just how dire the report is for wheat production:

  • USDA projected the smallest U.S. wheat harvest since 1972, triggering sharp gains in both Chicago and Kansas wheat futures.

  • Hard red winter wheat production was estimated at the lowest level since 1957 following drought damage across the southern Plains.

  • The Bloomberg Grains Index has gained 17% YTD, supported by strong advances in soybean oil, wheat, and related biofuel-linked markets.

  • Managed money traders have returned aggressively to agriculture, although wheat positioning remains mixed due to continued contango focus.

Let's not forget America's breadbasket, plagued by drought, as the Middle East energy shock has disrupted the fertilizer trade and may impact harvests later this year. Global food prices are rising.

Related:

  • Seven Reasons Why The Hormuz Crisis Has Yet To Cause The Global Economy

Our debate at the start of May featured former Bridgewater head of commodities Alex Campbell and Brent Johnson of Santiago Capital. It was hosted by Tony Greer and Jared Dillian, who discussed the potential food crisis that appears to be festering.

pic.twitter.com/gHcRNn3pGh

— ZeroHedge Debates (@zerohedgeDebate) May 2, 2026

Watch here.

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/13/2026 - 11:15
Tyler Durden

IEA Revises 2026 Forecast: Global Oil Supply To Plunge Below Demand This Year

Zero Rss
1 month ago
IEA Revises 2026 Forecast: Global Oil Supply To Plunge Below Demand This Year

Global oil demand is set to exceed supply in the current year amid the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, reversing previous projections of a surplus, OilPrice reports citing the latest IEA data.

"With Hormuz tanker traffic still restricted, cumulative supply ​losses from Middle East Gulf producers already exceed 1 billion barrels with more than 14 million (barrels per ⁠day) of oil now shut in, an unprecedented supply shock," said the agency, which advises industrialized countries.

According to the May 2026 Oil Market Report by the International Energy Agency (IEA), global oil supply is projected to fall by 3.9 million bpd across 2026, with ~10.5 million bpd of Gulf oil production currently offline.

Global oil stocks are depleting at a record pace as supply losses from disruptions to flows via the Strait of Hormuz keep mounting

Producers & consumers are responding to the market signals, with Atlantic crude oil exports surging & refiners cutting runs: https://t.co/cOYraM4phx pic.twitter.com/QWJlPICebi

— International Energy Agency (@IEA) May 13, 2026

Consumption is also under pressure due to the war as ​price spikes lead ⁠to demand destruction and slower economic growth: Global demand is also forecast to contract by 420,000 bpd compared to a ​previous forecast of an 80,000 bpd drop due to surging prices, slow economic growth and widespread flight cancellations, with oil demand still set to outpace supply by 1.78 million bpd in the current year.

"Our latest supply and demand estimates imply that the market will remain severely undersupplied through the end of 3Q26, even assuming the conflict ends by early June," the Paris-based agency said, adding that the second-quarter deficit will be as stark as ​6 million bpd.

Global crude runs are expected to plunge by 1.6 million bpd to an average of 82.3 mb/d for the year as operators face infrastructure damage and severe feedstock shortages, with refinery throughput expected to fall by 4.5 million bpd in the second quarter alone.

Operators in the Middle East and Asia are battling significant damage to energy infrastructure and reduced availability of crude feedstocks, largely stemming from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The heaviest cuts have been in the Middle East and Asia-Pacific, heavily impacting naphtha, LPG and jet fuel production.

According to the IEA, global oil inventories are projected to fall by an average of 8.5 mb/d during the second quarter of 2026, with the drawdown largely due to a decline in crude output from countries including Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the UAE.

The steepest inventory draws are projected to occur in May and June, helping to keep Brent crude prices elevated at ~$106 per barrel.

Whereas the release of a total of 400 million barrels by 32 IEA members is expected to provide a temporary buffer, the market will still face a significant deficit that could keep prices high through the year.

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/13/2026 - 11:00
Tyler Durden

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