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Aramco CEO Says Energy Market May Not Normalize Until 2027 Amid Billion-Barrel Supply Shock

From the Trump administration's recent Project Freedom push to mounting warnings from Wall Street analysts, security experts, energy strategists, and major oil company executives, there is a growing sense that the global energy market is quickly approaching a breaking point due to the heavily disrupted Strait of Hormuz.

There was good news over the weekend, as a Qatari LNG tanker transited the Hormuz chokepoint. However, a second tanker from the energy-rich Gulf country abruptly made a U-turn in the Strait early Monday, dashing hopes for any near-term normalization, especially since the U.S. and Iran have yet to reach a peace deal.

The countdown to global energy chaos is increasingly viewed in weeks, not months. If the maritime chokepoint remains impaired for the next several weeks, according to Frederic Lasserre, head of research at Gunvor, one of the world's largest oil traders, then the "tipping point to something has to give is June."

Warnings of incoming energy market turmoil continued on Monday, with the CEO of Aramco, formerly known as the Saudi Arabian Oil Company. Amin Nasser warned that the market could lose around 100 million barrels of oil each week if Hormuz remains closed.

Nasser told investors on an earnings call earlier today that if the Hormuz chokepoint is disrupted for another couple of weeks, then it would take the global energy market until 2027 to normalize. 

Here are the most important comments from Nasser's call with the analyst:

• Energy Supply Shock Is Largest Ever Experienced

• It'll Take Months for Oil Market to Rebalance Even If Hormuz Reopens Today

• Market to Normalize in 2027 if Hormuz Opening Is Delayed by Few More Weeks

• Market Has Seen Supply Loss of About 1 Billion Barrel of Oil

• Alternative Flows Bypassing Hormuz, Strategic Reserve Releases Partially offset that

• Market Could Lose Around 100 Mln Barrels of Oil For Every Week

• Demand Rationing to Continue As Long As Supply Remains Disrupted

• Return to Demand Growth Expected to Be Robust If Trade Resumes

• Demand Growth to Be Driven by Urgency to Ensure Security of Supply

• Supply Chains Will Need Several Months to Return to Normal

Building on the countdown-to-energy-chaos theme, Morgan Stanley analyst Martijn Rats warned clients that the oil market is in a "race against time" as the maritime chokepoint remains heavily disrupted. He noted that global supply buffers, which have kept crude prices contained during the ten-week Iran war, are starting to come under pressure.

Rats said that nearly 1 billion barrels have already been lost, yet Brent crude  futures have not exceeded 2022 levels because the market entered the crisis with spare supply buffers and because traders kept assuming Hormuz would reopen.

"The ability of the US to continue this elevated level of exports is hard to gauge but appears under more pressure," the analyst noted, adding, "The United States' 3.8m b/d increase in exports and China's 5.5m b/d cut in imports have shielded the rest of the world from 9.3m b/d of tightness." 

Rats warned, "Even if the Strait reopened tomorrow, the time required to restart fields, repair refineries, and reposition tanker tonnage means the market is on track to lose another billion barrels over the balance of 2026."

In a separate note, JPMorgan's resident commodity expert, Natasha Kaneva, explained where the next phase of the global energy shock could unfold.

Kaneva's chart on global oil inventories is truly shocking.

Read Kaneva's full note here.

Overall, the warnings are piling up. If the maritime chokepoint remains shuttered through this month, real panic may begin then.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/11/2026 - 10:15

US Existing Home Sales Disappoint In April, Despite Lower Mortgage Rates

With the Spring selling season already in tatters, existing home sales were expected to rebound in April very modestly (+2.0% MoM) off recent record lows. However, the rebound was far less than expected, up just 0.2% MoM, which left sales of existing homes unchanged YoY...

Source: Bloomberg

Total existing home sales SAAR hover just above 4.00 million homes...

Source: Bloomberg

The NAR report showed the median selling price rose 0.9% from a year earlier to $417,700 last month - the highest for any April on record.

Source: Bloomberg

The inventory of previously owned homes increased from a year ago to 1.47 million - the most for any April since 2019.

Source: Bloomberg

“Even though it’s the highest inventory post-Covid, we are not close to the pre-Covid April inventory of 1.83 million,” Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said on a call with reporters.

Contract closings rose in the Midwest and South, according to the NAR. They fell to a three-month low in the West.

Finally, it appears home sales are becoming less and less elastic relative to mortgage rates (which had fallen notably during the period of reporting)..

Source: Bloomberg

And, as the chart shows, mortgage rates are recently on the rise again...which will not help the situation at all.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/11/2026 - 10:07

"Friendly Local Assassin" Suspect In White House Correspondents' Dinner Shooting Pleads Not Guilty

In a federal courtroom in Washington this morning, 31-year-old Cole Tomas Allen entered a not guilty plea to charges stemming from the April 25 shooting incident at the White House Correspondents’ Association (WHCA) Dinner. The plea sets the stage for a high-profile trial that could determine whether Allen faces life in prison for what authorities describe as an attempted assassination of President Donald Trump.

Allen was tackled by Secret Service after gunfire erupted just outside the ballroom packed with roughly 2,600 attendees - including the President, First Lady Melania Trump, Vice President JD Vance, and numerous Cabinet officials and journalists.

The night of April 25...

Around 8:36 p.m. EDT, as dinner service was underway, Allen - armed with a 12-gauge Maverick shotgun, an Armscor Precision .38 semi-automatic pistol, and multiple knives - rushed past a security checkpoint on an upper level of the hotel. He fired at least one shot (reports indicate possible additional rounds) in the direction of law enforcement before being tackled by Secret Service agents and other officers.

One Secret Service agent was struck in his bulletproof vest by buckshot; he was treated and released from the hospital. Allen sustained a knee injury after tripping during the confrontation but was not shot. No bystanders or attendees were injured or killed. President Trump was quickly surrounded by agents and evacuated - 10 seconds after JD Vance, and the dinner was halted and later rescheduled.

Surveillance footage captured the rapid sequence: Allen sprinting with weapons visible, the sound of gunfire, and swift law enforcement response. Allen had checked into the hotel as a guest days earlier, traveling by Amtrak from his home in Torrance, California.

Today, we are releasing video already provided to U.S. District Court showing Cole Allen shoot a U.S. Secret Service officer during his attempt to assassinate the President at the White House Correspondents’ Dinner.

There is no evidence the shooting was the result of friendly… pic.twitter.com/a8gRXkW6BH

— US Attorney Pirro (@USAttyPirro) April 30, 2026

Born April 11, 1995, Allen is a California native with an extensive academic background - earning a bachelor’s degree in mechanical engineering from the California Institute of Technology (Caltech) in 2017 and a master’s in computer science from California State University, Dominguez Hills in 2025. He interned at NASA, worked part-time as a tutor at C2 Education in Torrance (named “Teacher of the Month” in December 2024), and developed video games, including a 'non-violent fighting game' (lol) called Bohrdom that was later removed from Steam following his arrest.

Acquaintances and family described him as highly intelligent, polite, inquisitive, and generally “gentle” or “super stable,” with no prior criminal history. He lived with his parents and siblings, regularly practiced at shooting ranges, and had expressed anti-Trump political views online and in person—including a small donation to Kamala Harris’s 2024 campaign and attendance at protests.

The Manifesto and Alleged Motive

Approximately 10 minutes before the attack, Allen emailed a lengthy note titled "Apology and Explanation" to family members. In it, he apologized for “abusing” their trust and stated he did not expect forgiveness. He exhibited deep hatred of Trump, referring to himself in one passage as the "Friendly Federal Assassin" and outlining an intent to target “administration officials (not including Mr. Patel)” - widely interpreted as sparing FBI Director Kash Patel - from highest-ranking to lowest.

The document criticized specific actions such as federal operations against alleged drug boats and highlighted what Allen perceived as lax security at the hotel and event. Also for some reason FBI Director Kash Patel was not a target. 

Authorities have described the note and related materials recovered from his devices and hotel room as a manifesto reflecting political grievances and a belief that it was his “duty” to act. Investigators are still examining the full scope of his radicalization, but preliminary findings point to targeted political violence rather than random or personal animus.

#WHCD #TRUMP
**Here is the full text of Cole Allen’s manifesto**, as published by the New York Post (1,052 words, signed “Cole ‘coldForce’ ‘Friendly Federal Assassin’ Allen”).
Part: 1/2
---
Hello everybody!
So I may have given a lot of people a surprise today. Let me start off… pic.twitter.com/6brCsHjHoJ

— CosMike (@C0sM1ke) April 27, 2026 Developments

Allen was charged days after the incident with attempting to assassinate the president, assaulting a federal officer with a deadly weapon, and multiple firearms violations (including interstate transportation of a firearm with intent to commit a felony and discharging a firearm during a crime of violence). A federal grand jury later returned a four-count indictment.

He has remained in federal custody in Washington. Early proceedings included concerns over his detention conditions - initially on suicide watch, later removed - prompting a federal magistrate judge to express alarm about his treatment, including reports of five-point restraints, and to demand explanations from jail officials (poor baby!). Allen’s defense team has filed motions, including one seeking the recusal of U.S. Attorney for D.C. Jeanine Pirro, and has highlighted what they describe as unusually harsh conditions compared to other high-profile detainees.

Today’s arraignment before Judge Trevor McFadden was the first formal opportunity for Allen to enter a plea on the indicted charges. With the not guilty plea entered, the case now proceeds toward trial, discovery, and potential pre-trial motions. If convicted on the lead count, Allen could face life imprisonment.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/11/2026 - 10:00

Key Events This Week: CPI, PPI, Retail Sales, Trump-Xi Summit

As DB's Jim Reid tallies overnight, it has now been 73 days since the war in Iran began, with the past 32 marked by a stalemate characterized by a mix of truce and ongoing ceasefire. The absence of any meaningful kinetic activity for over a month suggests a firm US preference for reaching a deal. However, a counterpoint is that uncertainty over who holds negotiating authority in Iran may be complicating progress and delaying more difficult times ahead. It remains an unusual conflict with little action now for a month. In simple terms though, as long as the Strait of Hormuz stays closed, markets remain on a knife edge. Polymarket currently assigns a 39% probability to it fully reopening by 30 June.

The latest is that oil and yields are up again this morning as President Trump has posted that "I have just read the response from Iran's so called 'Representatives'" which he went on to call "TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE". This was based on a WSJ report that suggested Iran was offering to transfer some of highly enriched uranium to another country but wouldn't dismantle its nuclear facilities. Iran's official news agency has disputed the report anyway. Brent is up +4.23% and 10yr US yields are up +3.5bps. However, US and European equity futures are largely flat and Asian equities are largely higher on the AI trade. The KOSPI is on fire again with the index up +4.0% as semiconductors surge again. The index has crossed +85% YTD.

This comes ahead of the planned mid-to end week meeting between US President Donald Trump and China’s President Xi Jinping in Beijing. It’ll be interesting to see whether this meeting does anything to shape negotiations in the war. Both leaders would clearly like to show their influence on the world stage. So certainly the biggest headline event of the week (full preview here).

Before that, the new week arrives with markets still processing last Friday’s US payrolls report, which came in broadly firm and reinforced the view that labor market conditions remain resilient. While not strong enough to decisively alter the policy outlook, the release did little to ease concerns that underlying inflation pressures could persist, especially given still-solid wage dynamics. Against this backdrop, outside of the Iran War developments which will of course take center stage, the coming week will remain centered on the US, with a dense run of data and policy developments.

This week's focal point will be tomorrow’s April CPI report. DB economists expect headline inflation to rise by +0.58% month-on-month, moderating from March’s +0.9%, but still relatively firm. In contrast, the core measure is projected to accelerate to +0.39% MoM from +0.2%, suggesting underlying price pressures remain sticky even as energy-related effects fade. The YoY rates would move from 3.3% to 3.8% for the former and from 2.6% to 2.8% for the latter.

Producer price data follows on Wednesday and then the remainder of the week shifts towards activity indicators. DB economists expect retail sales to decline by -0.3% MoM after March’s strong +1.7% increase, pointing to some payback in consumer spending. Meanwhile, industrial production is forecast to rise modestly by +0.2% MoM following a -0.5% drop previously, suggesting a tentative stabilization in manufacturing output.

Policy and politics will also be important. A Senate vote on Kevin Warsh’s nomination as Fed Chair is scheduled for today, just days before Jerome Powell’s term is set to expire at the end of the week. It's possible the vote could get pushed back a day or so due to other Senate business but by the end of the week you would expect Warsh to have taken Miran's seat on the board with Powell staying on the committee.

In Europe, inflation readings from Denmark and Norway today are followed with Germany’s ZEW survey tomorrow with sentiment darkening even with the nation's extraordinary fiscal package. Later in the week, the ECB’s economic bulletin may offer additional context on the central bank’s assessment of inflation and activity trends.

In the UK, attention will be split between politics and macro. The State Opening of Parliament and the King’s Speech on Wednesday will outline the government’s legislative agenda for the year ahead. With PM Starmer under tremendous pressure following the very poor (but broadly as expected) local election results on Thursday there is talk of a leadership challenge as soon as today. Backbench MP Catherine West has said she will stand, which would be a stalking horse nomination. However, many left-wing MPs (as she is) have urged her not to as their preferred candidate Andy Burnham is not currently an MP. They fear an election now might be a bit too early and may allow a more moderate candidate like Wes Streeting to prevail. So timing tactics could prolong Starmer’s reign. A reminder that in September last year, Mr Burnham said that the UK should no longer be “in hock to the bond markets”. This caused a spike in Gilt yields and although he subsequently downplayed the remarks, this is something to watch carefully as we navigate the politics of the next few days and weeks. On the data side, Q1 UK GDP on Thursday will offer up the latest state of play growth wise.

In Asia, Japan’s schedule includes household spending data tomorrow, alongside the Economy Watchers survey and bank lending figures on Wednesday. In addition, the Bank of Japan will publish its summary of opinions from the April meeting, which should provide greater insight into policymakers’ thinking and any emerging shifts in the policy stance.

There are multiple appearances from Fed, ECB, BoE and BoJ officials throughout the week, and on the corporate front, earnings continue at a steadier pace. In the US, Cisco and Applied Materials are among the key names, while internationally the focus includes major firms such as Tencent, Alibaba, Siemens and Bayer. See the day-by-day calendar at the end as usual for a fuller week ahead preview.

Source: Earnings Whispers

Courtesy of DB, here is a day-by-day calendar of events

Monday May 11

• Data: US April existing home sales, China April CPI, PPI, Denmark April CPI, Norway April CPI
• Earnings: Petroleo Brasileiro, Constellation Energy, Barrick Mining, Compass, AST SpaceMobile
• Auctions: US 3-yr Notes ($58bn)
• Other: US Senate vote on Kevin Warsh’s nomination for Fed Chair

Tuesday May 12

• Data: US April CPI, federal budget balance, NFIB small business optimism, Japan March household spending, leading index, coincident index, Germany May Zew survey, Italy March industrial production, Eurozone May Zew survey
• Central banks: Fed's Goolsbee speaks, ECB's Dolenc speaks, BoJ Summary of Opinions April MPM
• Earnings: Siemens Energy, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, MunichRe, Bayer, Vodafone, Venture Global, On Holding, thyssenkrupp
• Auctions: US 10-yr Notes ($42bn)

Wednesday May 13

• Data: US April PPI, Japan April bank lending, Economy Watchers survey, March BoP current account balance, BoP trade balance, Germany April wholesale price index, March current account balance, Eurozone March industrial production, Q1 employment
• Central banks: Fed's Collins and Kashkari speak, ECB’s Lagarde, Lane and Radev speak, BoE’s Mann speaks
• Earnings: Tencent, Cisco, Alibaba, Siemens, SoftBank, Allianz, Deutsche Telekom, E.ON, RWE, Alstom
• Auctions: US 30-yr Bonds ($25bn)
• Other: UK King’s Speech and the State Opening of Parliament

Thursday May 14

• Data: US April retail sales, import price index, export price index, March business inventories, initial jobless claims, UK April RICS house price balance, Q1 GDP, Japan April M2, M3, Canada April existing home sales, March wholesale sales ex petroleum
• Central banks: Fed's Hammack and Barr speak, BoJ’s Masu speaks, BoE's Pill speaks
• Earnings: Applied Materials, National Grid, Figma
• Other: US President Trump travels to China (through May 15)

Friday May 15

• Data: US May Empire manufacturing index, April industrial production, capacity utilisation, Japan April PPI, April machine tool orders, Italy March general government debt, Canada April housing starts, March international securities transactions, manufacturing sales
• Central banks: Fed Chair Powell’s term ends, ECB’s economic bulletin

Finally, looking at just the US, the key economic data releases this week are the CPI report on Tuesday and the retail sales report on Thursday. There are several speaking engagements by Fed officials this week, including events with Presidents Williams, Goolsbee, Collins, Kashkari, Schmid, and Hammack and Governor Barr on Thursday.

Monday, May 11 

• 10:00 AM Existing home sales, April (GS +3.0%, consensus +2.0%, last -3.6%)

Tuesday, May 12 

• 03:15 AM New York Fed President Williams (FOMC voter) speaks: New York Fed President John Williams will participate in a monetary policy panel at a conference jointly organized by the Swiss National Bank and the International Monetary Fund in Zurich, Switzerland. A Q&A session is expected. On May 4, Williams said, “The elevated levels of inflation, mixed signals from the labor market, and heightened uncertainty from the Middle East conflict present an unusual set of circumstances, but the current stance of monetary policy is well positioned to balance the risks to our maximum employment and price stability goals.”
• 08:30 AM CPI (MoM), April (GS +0.58%, consensus +0.6%, last +0.9%); Core CPI (MoM), April (GS +0.31%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.2%); CPI (YoY), April (GS +3.68%, consensus +3.7%, last +3.3%); Core CPI (YoY), April (GS +2.67%, consensus +2.7%, last +2.6%): We estimate a 0.31% increase in April core CPI (month-over-month SA), which would raise the year-over-year rate to 2.67%. We expect mixed autos inflation, reflecting a 0.4% decline in used car prices, a 0.1% increase in new car prices, and a 0.4% increase in the car insurance category. We forecast a jump in the shelter categories—a 0.50% increase in the OER category and a 0.44% increase in the rent category—reflecting the unwind of the downward bias in the index level from missed data collection during the government shutdown. The panel group that should have been sampled in October will be sampled in April and compared to prices from twelve months prior (i.e. April will effectively show two months’ worth of increases). We expect mixed readings for the travel services categories (airfares: +3%; hotels: flat), reflecting signals from alternative price data. We expect diminishing upward pressure from tariffs on categories that are particularly exposed (such as recreation) worth +0.04pp. We estimate a 0.58% rise in headline CPI—reflecting higher food prices (+0.3%) and sharply higher energy prices (+4.6%)—which would raise the year-over-year rate to +3.68% from +3.26%. Our forecast consists of a 0.26% monthly increase in the core PCE price index in April.
• 01:00 PM Chicago Fed President Goolsbee (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee will speak at the Greater Rockford Chamber of Commerce Luncheon in Rockford, Illinois. A Q&A session is expected. On May 8, during an interview in which he was asked whether inflation is the main danger now given that the labor market appears to have stabilized, Goolsbee responded, “I am optimistic that rates can go down, if we get some progress on inflation, [showing] we are headed back to the 2% inflation, [but] we just haven’t had [progress on inflation] for some time, and that makes me less optimistic.” When asked about the easing bias in the April FOMC statement, Goolsbee responded, “I was always skeptical of the value and appropriateness of using forward guidance [on things] that the committee doesn’t think it is going to do for some number of months or committing to actions well in the future.” 

Wednesday, May 13 

• 08:30 AM PPI final demand, April (GS +0.6%, consensus +0.5%, last +0.5%); PPI ex-food and energy, April (GS +0.5%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.1%); PPI ex-food, energy, and trade, April (GS +0.3%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.2%);
• 11:30 AM Boston Fed President Collins (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Boston Fed President Susan Collins will give remarks and participate in a fireside chat at the Boston Economic Club. Speech text and Q&A are expected. On May 7, Collins said she preferred to adjust the text of the post-meeting statement to “not be as closely aligned with language that has been associated with the presumption that the next move will be a cut.” She also added, “I do think that there are scenarios in which it would be important to strongly consider a hike.”
• 01:15 PM Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari (FOMC voter) speaks: Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari will participate in a moderated discussion at a St. Paul Area Chamber event. A Q&A session is expected. On May 7, Kashkari said, “We voted against the forward guidance because we just didn’t want to signal that the next move was likely down.” He also added, “We cannot let elevated inflation be the new normal.”

 
Thursday, May 14 

• 08:30 AM Import price index, April (consensus +1.0%, last +0.8%); Export price index, April (consensus +1.1%, last +1.6%)
• 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended May 9 (GS 205k, consensus 205k, last 200k); Continuing jobless claims, week ended May 2 (consensus 1,785k, last 1,766k)
• 08:30 AM Retail sales, April (GS +0.2%, consensus +0.6%, last +1.7%); Retail sales ex-auto, April (GS +0.3%, consensus +0.6%, last +1.9%); Retail sales ex-auto & gas, April (GS +0.1%, consensus +0.4%, last +0.6%); Core retail sales, April (GS +0.2%, consensus +0.4%, last +0.7%): We estimate core retail sales increased 0.2% in April (ex-autos, gasoline, and building materials; month-over-month SA), reflecting mixed alternative data and a headwind from potential residual seasonality. We estimate headline retail sales increased 0.2%, reflecting higher gasoline prices but lower auto and food services sales.
• 10:15 AM Kansas City Fed President Schmid (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid will speak on payments innovation and community banking at the Future of Banking Conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. Speech text and Q&A are expected. On April 1, Schmid said, “With inflation already running hot, now is not the time to assume that the inflation from higher oil prices will be transitory.” He also added, “We must remain focused on our headline inflation objective, otherwise, I believe there is a real risk that inflation will get stuck closer to 3 percent than 2 percent in the long run.”
• 01:00 PM Cleveland Fed President Hammack (FOMC voter) speaks: Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack will deliver opening remarks at the Cleveland Fed Conversations on Central Banking event. On May 7, Hammack said, “The statement that we put out is that interest rates were on hold, but we have the signal in there that it’s more likely that the next move will be down, [and] I thought that was a little bit misleading, just given my view of where the economy is.” She also added that her “baseline outlook is that interest rates will be on hold for quite some time.”
• 05:30 PM Fed Governor Barr speaks: Fed Governor Michael Barr will deliver remarks at an event organized by the Money Marketeers of New York University. Speech text and Q&A are expected. On May 5, Barr said, “The duration of the conflict matters a lot, and the longer it goes on, the greater the risk that the inflation we are seeing in these prices becomes embedded in the economy.”
• 05:45 PM New York Fed President Williams (FOMC voter) speaks: New York Fed President John Williams will participate in a moderated discussion at a conference organized by Moody’s. A Q&A session is expected.

Friday, May 15 

• 08:30 AM Empire State manufacturing index, April (consensus +7.5, last +11.0)
• 09:15 AM Industrial production, April (GS +0.4%, consensus +0.2%, last -0.5%); Manufacturing production, April (GS +0.1%, consensus +0.2%, last -0.1%); Capacity utilization, April (GS 75.8%, consensus 75.8%, last 75.7%): We estimate industrial production increased 0.4% in April, largely reflecting strong natural gas and oil production. We estimate capacity utilization edged up to 75.8%.

Source: DB, Goldman

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/11/2026 - 09:35

Khamenei Orders Iran's Army To 'Continue Decisive Operations'

Via The Cradle

Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei has ordered the country’s forces to continue military operations against the US and Israel, according to a report by Iranian public broadcaster IRIB released Sunday. 

The order came during a meeting between Khamenei and Major General Ali Abdollahi, the commander of the Iranian army's Khatam al-Anbiya Headquarters. "During this meeting, the Supreme Commander-in-Chief, His Eminence Ayatollah Sayyed Mojtaba Hosseini Khamenei, while expressing appreciation for the brave and valiant fighters and the country’s powerful armed forces, issued new directives and guidance for continuing operations and confronting enemies decisively," the report said. 

via AFP

Abdollahi also "presented a report on the readiness of the armed forces" during the meeting, IRIB added. The report comes after two months of speculation and unverified media claims about the Supreme Leader's status. 

Western news outlets like The Guardian and The Times had claimed earlier in the war that Khamenei was in a coma following the US-Israeli strikes that assassinated his father. Reports also claimed that he fled to Russia. 

Mazaher Hosseini, head of protocol in the office of Iran's supreme leader, recently stated that Khamenei was healing from minor injuries he sustained and "is now in complete health."

"Thank God, he is in good health. The enemy is spreading all kinds of rumors and false claims. They want to see him and find him, but people should be patient and not rush. He will speak to you when the time is right," the Iranian official stated.

The IRIB report came a day after CNN cited US intelligence as saying that Khamenei "is playing a critical role in shaping war strategy alongside senior Iranian officials."

It also comes days after Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian said he met with the supreme leader. "What struck me most during this meeting was the vision and the humble and sincere approach of the supreme leader of the Islamic Revolution," he said. 

Tehran has sent out its response to a new US proposal for a ceasefire via Pakistan, according to state media. The US has maintained an illegal blockade of Iranian ports since the ceasefire began.

Washington violated the truce days ago by bombing Iran's coast and attacking two vessels. Iranian forces targeted two US military vessels in response. The next day, skirmishes broke out between Iranian and US forces in the Strait of Hormuz.

Spokesperson for the Iranian parliament’s Foreign Policy and National Security Committee, Ebrahim Rezaei, said on Sunday that Tehran will strike US military bases and vessels in response to any new violations from Washington – stressing that "restraint has come to an end."

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/11/2026 - 09:20

'Starmer Out' Odds (& Gilt Yields) Rise As Embattled UK PM Vows To 'Prove Doubters Wrong'

UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer vowed this morning to fight any bid to topple him, insisting he is “not going to walk away” and claiming that the country would never forgive Labour if it indulged in the “chaos” of a leadership contest.

“I know that people are frustrated by the state of Britain, frustrated by politics, and some people frustrated with me,” Starmer said in London on Monday.

“I know I have my doubters, and I know I need to prove them wrong.”

Starmer is fighting to stay in 10 Downing St. after a drubbing in local election results triggered a wave of Labour MPs to call for his departure.

He had a brief moment of respite on Monday when a former minister, Catherine West, withdrew her threat to force an immediate leadership contest, though she said she’d still push for a timetable for Starmer’s exit.

“I have listened to the prime minister’s speech this morning,” she told the BBC.

“I welcome the renewed energy and ideas. However, I have reluctantly concluded that this morning’s speech was too little too late.”

Starmer’s speech was light on new policy. The prime minister announced the government would legislate to take full ownership of British Steel, which is already under temporary government control. He also announced more investment in education programs like apprenticeships, technical colleges and in special educational needs.

Starmer sharpened his rhetoric against the populist parties who made strong gains at last week’s elections, warning that the country risks going down a “dark path,” as he stood behind a podium that read “Stronger Fairer Britain.”

“We are not just facing dangerous times but dangerous opponents,” he said, name-checking both Reform UK leader Nigel Farage and the Greens’ Zack Polanski.

“If we don’t get this right our country will go down a very dark path.”

Gilts fell, with the 10-year yield rising as much as 8 basis points to the day’s high of 5.00%, while the pound eased against the dollar and the euro.

Meanwhile, despite his vows, Polymarket odds of Starmer being gone by year-end are on the rise...

The call for a September leadership election, which would put it around the same time as Labour’s annual conference in Liverpool, puts pressure on Starmer’s health secretary, Wes Streeting, to decide whether to challenge his boss for the job before other candidates emerge.

Streeting, who is seen as a standard-bearer for the right of the party, is said to be weighing his options. 

Starmer explicitly said he would fight to remain in office if a Labour colleague sparks a leadership contest, vowing: “I’m not going to walk away.”

Asked if he would stand if a race was triggered, he said: “Yes.” 

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/11/2026 - 09:05

Watch: Fetterman Blasts Democrats For Running On 'F*ck Trump'; Calls Socialism Moronic

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

Pennsylvania Democrat Sen. John Fetterman has reiterated that he is done with the insanity gripping his party. In a series of raw appearances on Bill Maher’s show and a new Washington Post op-ed, Fetterman is torching the reflexive anti-Trump obsession, the normalization of radical left ideas once dismissed as smears, and the sloppy 24-hour news cycle that turns opinions into “news.”

Fetterman made clear he refuses to play along with the extremes. “My colleagues and people that are running, whether for the Senate where the House, they are literally running on f*ck Trump,” he said. 

“I mean, that’s literally—they have campaign commercials with that. It’s absurd,” he noted, adding “And we are getting to that point and I refuse to engage in that extreme, those terms. And we have to find a better way forward.”

Sen. John Fetterman (D-PA): “My colleagues and people that are running, whether for the Senate where the House, they are literally running on f*ck Trump.”

“I mean, that's literally—they have campaign commercials with that. It's absurd.”

“And we are getting to that point and I… pic.twitter.com/A0MselRgIS

— RedWave Press (@RedWavePress) May 9, 2026

Fetterman repeated the sentiments in an op-ed in The Washington Post, titled “I Haven’t Changed. Here’s What Has,” writing “My party cannot simply be the opposite of whatever President Donald Trump says.”

He stresses, “Working across the aisle is the only way forward” and calls “pointless pile-ons and attacks” unproductive. Fetterman highlights once-mainstream Democratic positions on border security, support for Israel, and avoiding government shutdowns that have now become “toxic” to the party’s fringe base. 

He declares, “Someone who comes here illegally and commits a violent crime should be deported. Full stop.” 

"It doesn’t matter if my colleague is in my party or across the aisle," Sen. @JohnFetterman writes.

"My focus remains on working together to find wins and deliver for my constituents." https://t.co/d0g5KorSXj

— Washington Post Opinions (@PostOpinions) May 7, 2026

Fetterman also backed practical security measures that even some on the left are now acknowledging make sense. Discussing President Trump’s plans for a new White House ballroom, Fetterman revealed he had a clear view of the latest assassination attempt at the White House Correspondents’ Dinner. 

“I was two tables away at the White House Correspondent’s Dinner. I witnessed this,” he said. When Maher asked if he meant two tables from the attempt, Fetterman replied, “Yeah. I had to see that. Like the entire line of succession was right there and realized that we’ve put, there’s real danger there. We got really lucky there, for a lot of reasons. We need to have a more secure place to do these kinds of events.”

He added bluntly, “I don’t care about the ballroom.” Maher agreed, telling his audience, “I don’t either. Yeah. I mean, it’s like so stupid. It’s such a Rorschach test of whether you just hate. We saw with the assassination attempt a couple of weeks ago. America probably does need [it]… This is America and we don’t want people sitting in tents to have dinner.” The liberal crowd actually applauded.

Even Bill Maher’s liberal audience is now APPLAUDING after he says Trump’s ballroom plans actually make sense.

John Fetterman was two tables away from the latest assassination attempt, and he says he saw the “entire line of succession” flashing before his eyes.

FETTERMAN: “I… pic.twitter.com/AZT0OIELVm

— The Vigilant Fox 🦊 (@VigilantFox) May 9, 2026

Fetterman didn’t stop there. He went after the left’s embrace of ideas that were once political poison. “People who are proud to be labeled as a socialist, that was like a smear… They are MORONS if they think that socialism is the answer,” he declared. 

Maher noted that even “communist” is no longer viewed as a dirty word on the left, pointing to a New York official tweeting “elect more communists” and referencing Graham Platner. 

Fetterman concurred, “Yeah, it’s not a slur if I refer to him as a communist. That’s his own term that he used for himself.” Maher called it “a watershed mark, a moment in American history where we should pay attention.”

Bill Maher and John Fetterman share growing concerns that “communist” is no longer viewed as a smear on the left.

FETTERMAN: “People who are proud to be labeled as a socialist, that was like a smear… They are MORONS if they think that socialism is the answer.”

MAHER: “You said… pic.twitter.com/AXfZoICyRP

— The Vigilant Fox 🦊 (@VigilantFox) May 9, 2026

The senator saved some of his sharpest fire for the media itself. Fired up in a way viewers rarely see from him, Fetterman ripped the 24-hour news cycle for turning opinions into facts. “Opinions have become actual real news [now]… Opinions are NOT NEWS,” he said. 

“There are so many shitty takes out there in the world now. Like, why? Why are people still talking about Tucker Carlson or any of these people? Even Alex Jones is back. I have to see that asshole my feed. You know why? Because they are criticizing Trump.”

“I’m so tired opinions have become news, and now there’s countless, countless ones, and it’s all become sloppy,” he urged.

Maher also noted the legacy of CNN co-founder Ted Turner and the rise of nonstop “breaking news” even when there is none.

John Fetterman gets surprisingly passionate as he criticizes the 24-hour news cycle turning opinions into “news.”

It’s not often you see Fetterman this fired up. You can tell Fetterman had been holding this in for a while.

MAHER: “What is the legacy of [CNN co-founder] Ted… pic.twitter.com/3hXlMWZfU1

— The Vigilant Fox 🦊 (@VigilantFox) May 9, 2026

Fetterman remains a Democrat who says he is “strongly pro-choice, pro-weed, pro-LGBT, pro-SNAP, pro-labor” and would make a “terrible Republican” who still votes overwhelmingly with his party. Yet he keeps delivering bipartisan results—backing a border bill to stop an “influx the size of Pittsburgh,” the Laken Riley Act, infrastructure deals, and efforts against fentanyl and for Israel. His willingness to call out the party’s shift toward the fringe shows how far some Democrats have drifted from what used to be common sense.

Even as the left doubles down on rage and radicalism, Fetterman’s blunt admissions reveal the growing cracks. Americans are tired of the circus. They want secure borders, and real results.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/11/2026 - 08:45

Futures Flat, Oil Jumps After Iran Peace Talks Break Down

US equity futures are off a touch as the US/IranIran failed to consummate a deal, which is boosting Energy commodities and bond yields. Still, stocks have withstood the resulting increase in oil prices and higher bond yields as the market remains focused on the memory/semi stock bubble. As of 8:00am ET, S&P and Nasdaq 100 futures are down fractionally as Trump and Iran rejected each other’s latest peace proposals to end the 10-week conflict as the two sides struggle to maintain a fragile ceasefire. In premarket trading, semis are bid again after surging to a record high on Friday, Mag7 are mostly lower as early action points to Defensive positioning with Energy plays acting as a long hedge. European stocks are lower, reversing earlier gains in Asia, there driven by the AI Theme / Memory as Korean indices added 4-5%, and were briefly halted at the +5% trigger. Bond yields higher across the world on fears of an oil-driven inflation shock and expectations of central banks tightening monetary policy. The 10-year Treasury rate rose four basis points to 4.39%. The dollar edged 0.1% higher, while gold dipped below $4,700 an ounce. In commodities, the Energy complex is leading but WTI remains below $100/bbl, and off session highs, silver is outpacing gold as base metals are bid, and Ags are mixed. Today’s macro data focus is on existing home sales (10am ET) before kicking off a data-heavy week highlights by CPI, PPI, and Retail Sales. Fed speaker slate empty for the session.

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mostly lower:Apple +0.2%, Meta -0.6%, Microsoft -0.8%, Amazon -0.6%, Nvidia -0.5%, Alphabet -0.9%, Tesla -0.6%

• Semiconductor stocks are rising, set to extend gains, after many chip stocks closed at record highs on Friday. The latest surge is boosted by continued investor enthusiasm over AI infrastructure build-outs. Among notable movers: Intel (INTC +6%), Micron (MU +5%)
• Babcock & Wilcox (BW) rises 12% after the power equipment company reported revenue that grew 44% year-over-year in the first quarter, as well as adjusted Ebitda that nearly quadrupled.
• Beazer Homes USA Inc. (BZH) rises 22% as people familiar with the matter say Dream Finders Homes Inc. is close to announcing a $704 million offer to acquire the rival homebuilder.
• Certara (CERT) slips 5% after the biotech company cut its adjusted earnings forecast for the full year. The firm also posted adjusted profit for the first quarter that fell short of Wall Street’s expectations.
• Liquidia (LQDA) rises 7% after the drugmaker posted revenue for the first quarter that beat the average analyst estimate.
• Lumentum (LITE) rises 4% after Nasdaq announced that the stock will join the Nasdaq 100 Index, replacing CoStar Group. prior to the market open on May 18.
• Moderna (MRNA) rises 8% in the wake of Friday’s 12% rally after the company said last week it’s researching vaccines to protect against hantaviruses.
• Monday.com (MNDY) soars 25% after the software company raised its full-year forecast for both revenue and adjusted operating profits. It also reported first-quarter results that beat expectations.
• Mosaic (MOS) falls 3% after forecasting phosphates sales volumes for the second quarter that missed the average analyst estimate.
• Target Hospitality (TH) gains 11% after the provider of modular housing boosted its year sales forecast.

Global equities are trading at record highs following a narrow tech-led rally that’s been driven by strong earnings and resurgent optimism around artificial intelligence, even as the war continues. This week, investors will be watching Trump’s visit to China’s Xi Jinping to see whether they can influence the situation surrounding the conflict. 

The high in stock markets “does make sense,” Grace Peters, global head of investment strategy at JPMorgan Private Bank, told Bloomberg TV. “The underlying driver is more capex being spent. That’s not just associated with the AI buildout, but governments directing capital and companies following suit.”

The modest moves in futures signal traders are pausing for breath after 6 straight weeks higher, as they break down the latest Iran war news before a spate of key economic readings. With most of the earnings season in the rear-view mirror, much of the focus this week is on the CPI print Tuesday, Wednesday’s PPI numbers and retail sales on Thursday. Bloomberg Economics expects April CPI to moderate from March’s strong pace to a monthly increase of 0.6% - still pretty hot. Core CPI should also be elevated, but not because of the Iran war or tariffs. In fact, many tariff-related goods have seen deflation. Rather, core strength will be driven by a rectification of the artificial understatement in shelter CPI from the government shutdown last October. 

“The market melt-up driven by robust earnings, AI enthusiasm and hopes for a short-lived energy shock faces a tougher test in the week ahead,” according to Laura Cooper, head of macro credit at Nuveen. “Hotter US inflation could push yields higher, while weaker retail sales may begin to reveal the impact of higher gas prices on consumers,” she added. 

The oil market is in “a race against time” as the factors that combined to curb price rises from the Iran war stand to come under strain if the Strait of Hormuz stays closed into June, according to Morgan Stanley. Still, Bloomberg lists four "shock absorbers" that can help prevent crude reaching $200 per barrel.

Turning to the only driver for stocks, AI is increasingly “eating the global earnings cycle,” notes Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Izabella Wieckowska. A narrow group of AI-linked companies is doing much of the heavy lifting for global profit growth while large parts of the broader market struggle to keep pace. Meanwhile, BI’s scenario shows a 32% surge in 2026 AI-driven demand for electrical infrastructure to reach $117 billion by 2030, a compound annual growth rate of 18%. The narrowing trend within the stock market is likely to sustain moving forward, according to Citi strategists, who have upgraded US stocks to an overweight. The first-quarter earnings season shows an ongoing shift in corporate spending priorities to capex from buybacks, according to Goldman Sachs strategists.

Meanwhile, a multi-asset Pictet fund has sharply raised its equity exposure, shifting as much as 30% of its cash-equivalent holdings into AI heavyweights across Asia and the US. With the Kospi index surging to new highs on Monday, equity-derivatives strategists are increasingly recommending trades to bet on more gains in tech-heavy South Korea and Taiwan markets. Strategists at Societe Generale note the 12‑month variance spread between the Kospi 200 and S&P 500 has reached extreme levels. 

In private credit, a recent wave of investor redemption requests across the $1.8 trillion market for private credit prompted Blackstone to enlist senior executives in putting up capital to bolster its flagship fund.

Taking a look at the waning earnings season, of the 446 S&P 500 companies to have reported so far, 83% have beaten analysts’ estimates, while 11% have missed. Barrick Mining and Constellation Energy are among companies expected to report results before the market open. Barrick Mining’s gold output could fall for the fifth straight quarter to 680,000 ounces, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Bloomberg Intelligence projects this quarter will be its weakest gold production level in 2026, as the company resets its operating model. Simon Property and Him & Hers Health follow later in the day.

European stocks fall as an impasse in the Middle East conflict lifted oil prices and bond yields. The Stoxx 600 is down 0.2% to 611.12; Telecoms and banks outperform, consumer and retail sectors lag. Here are some of the biggest movers on Monday:

• Novo Nordisk shares gain as much as 5.5% to DKK306.15 after Citi analysts note the “impressive” Wegovy pill launch and increase their price target on the stock.
• Verisure gains as much as 3.6% after Bank of America upgraded its rating on the home-security firm to buy from neutral. BofA says the valuation “looks compelling” after recent share declines, praising the company’s premium subscription-based business model in structurally underpenetrated markets.
• Compass shares rise as much as 5.4% as the contract catering group delivers interim results described by analysts as “solid,” “sound” and “encouraging.”
• Genmab climbs as much as 2.7% after Jefferies analysts say share-price weakness after the 1Q results seems “overdone.”
• DiaSorin shares rise as much as 9.2%, the most in almost three years, after the health care company reported earnings ahead of expectations in the first quarter and reiterated its guidance for the full year. Analysts said the intact guidance is a positive surprise, with all eyes now turning to the upcoming capital markets day on May 20.
• Asos shares rise as much as 14% after the online clothing retailer agreed to sell its Lichfield fulfillment center to Marks & Spencer Group, which will lead to a significant one-off pretax profit. JPMorgan said the positive reaction is because investors were not anticipating material proceeds from the sale. It lifted its price target on the stock.
• Renault shares fall as much as 4% while Stellantis drops as much as 1.5% as Bank of America downgrades the carmakers due to competition from Chinese electric vehicles.
• European Defense shares fall on speculation that a weekend ceasefire in Ukraine, and reported remarks by Russian President Putin, could indicate that the war may be nearing its conclusion.
• Hannover Re shared drop as much as 3.4% as the German reinsurer reported a miss in P&C Re revenues despite strong April renewals.
• Victrex shares fall as much as 7% on the thermoplastic company’s first-half loss following an impairment against its manufacturing facility in China. The company’s full-year earnings guidance also fell short of consensus, according to analysts.

Earlier in the session, stocks in Asia rose, with South Korea leading a rally in tech shares as focus shifts back to artificial intelligence demand. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 0.6%, with Korean memory chipmakers SK Hynix and Samsung among the biggest boosts. South Korea’s benchmark Kospi jumped 4.3% to a record. Investors are factoring in strong earnings for the region’s hardware makers on the AI buildout, with recent results from major tech firms indicating continued big spending. That’s helping propel continued gains in tech-heavy Asian markets, offsetting lingering concerns over the war in the Middle East. Stocks also gained Monday in Taiwan, mainland China and the Philippines, while equities fell in Australia and Indonesia. Shares also slipped in India, after Prime Minister Modi urged citizens to conserve fuel and curb costly oil imports.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index traded 0.1% up on Monday; Bloomberg dollar gauge rose with Treasury yields as the US and Iran remain far apart on a framework to end the war, keeping oil prices elevated. The Canadian currency was among best performers in the Group of 10 against the greenback. EUR/USD traded down 0.1%. The European Central Bank will raise interest rates twice this year as the Iran war drives inflation higher, a Bloomberg survey showed. GBP/USD falls 0.2% to 1.3604. UK prime minister Keir Starmer said he would contest any leadership challenge, as he battled to save his premiership in a speech that appeared to do little to subdue the rebellions brewing within his party. US data Monday include April existing home sales

In rates, treasuries hold losses following gap lower at the Asia open and steady trading through London morning, leaving yields 3bp to 4bp cheaper across the curve. US 10-year near 4.39% is 3.7bp higher on the day with UK counterpart up about 6bp from Friday’s close; Treasury curve spreads are mostly flatter, 5s30s by 1bp. Oil prices are higher amid Middle East war impasse, and gilts underperform Treasuries and bunds with UK’s Starmer set to speak in a last-ditch effort to save his premiership. Treasury quarterly refunding auctions begin with 3-year note sale at 1pm New York time. Treasury’s $58 billion 3-year note auction precedes $42 billion 10-year and $25 billion 30-year new issues Tuesday and Wednesday. WI 3-year yield near 3.95% is 5.3bp cheaper than last month’s auction, which stopped through by 1.2bp, a strong result. IG dollar issuance slate includes four deals so far, and dealers anticipate a busy week totaling about $50 billion, much of it Monday ahead of CPI (Tuesday) and PPI (Wednesday) releases

Today's economic data slate includes April existing home sales at 10am. Fed speaker slate empty for the session.

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini little changed
• Nasdaq 100 mini little changed
• Russell 2000 mini -0.1%
• Stoxx Europe 600 -0.2%
• DAX -0.2%
• CAC 40 -1%
• 10-year Treasury yield +3 basis points at 4.38%
• VIX +0.9 points at 18.12
• Bloomberg Dollar Index +0.1% at 1189.37
• euro -0.1% at $1.1771
• WTI crude +2.3% at $97.64/barrel

Top Overnight News

• The US and Iran wrangled over terms to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Donald Trump called Tehran’s reply to his proposed peace plan “totally unacceptable.” BBG
• China confirms US President Trump's visit to China on May 13th-15th: Xinhua
• In an interview airing Sunday on 60 Minutes, Israel's Netanyahu says Iran war is "not over" until highly enriched uranium is removed. Benjamin Netanyahu told CBS he wants to end the US’s $3.8 billion a year in military aid to Israel over the next decade. CBS
• Trump will press Xi Jinping over China’s approach to Iran and hammer out details on a new board of trade when they meet later this week, senior US officials said. BBG
• China’s factory-gate inflation neared a four-year high in April, continuing a reversal from a long period of deflation as war in the Middle East keeps fueling higher energy costs. PPI (+2.8% vs. the Street +1.8% and up from +0.5% in Mar) and CPI (+1.2% vs. the Street +0.9% and up from +1% in Mar). WSJ
• US housing lenders and state agencies are raising concerns that the Trump administration could wind down a financing programme, The FY27 budget projects no new commitments for the programme: Semafor
• US Energy Secretary Chris Wright told NBC that the White House is “open to all ideas,” when asked about suspending the federal gas tax. States in the Midwest have seen the steepest increases in gas prices, with a 72% jump in Ohio. BBG
• China's domestic car sales fell for a seventh straight month in April amid intense competition in the world's biggest auto market but exports stayed strong as automakers increasingly ‌targeted overseas markets. Sales at home dropped 21.6% from a year earlier, but EV and plug-in hybrid vehicle exports shot up 111.8% from a year earlier, outpacing an 80.2% increase in overall car exports, as rising global fuel prices triggered by the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran bolstered EV demand in overseas markets. RTRS
• Prime Minister Narendra Modi has appealed to Indians to save fuel by working from home and using public transport, as the world’s third-largest oil importer tries to halt escalating economic disruption from higher energy prices. FT
• An American and a French passenger linked to the Hondius cruise ship outbreak have tested positive for the Andes strain of hantavirus, health authorities said. Seventeen US citizens are being repatriated from the vessel. BBG
• Goldman is pushing back the final two Fed rate cuts in our forecast by one quarter to December 2026 and March 2027. With energy cost passthrough likely to keep year-over-year core PCE inflation closer to 3% than 2% all year, we think that a combination of lower monthly inflation prints after the oil shock fades and further labor market softening will likely be needed for the FOMC to cut this year. The bank still expects that bar to be met but now expect it to take a bit longer. 

Iran War

• US President Trump posted, “I have just read the response from Iran’s so-called “Representatives.” I don’t like it — TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE!”
• Iran submitted its response to the latest proposal by the US to end the war, according to the Islamic Republic News Agency, while Tehran hasn’t provided any public indication yet on whether it will accept US President Trump’s proposal for Iran to permit passage through the Strait of Hormuz and for the US to end its blockade on Iranian ports in the next month. Iranian state media later reported that the US proposal amounted to Iran surrendering to Trump’s excessive demands, while Iran’s proposal stressed the need for the US to pay compensation for war damages and emphasised Iran’s sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz.
• Iran reportedly was offering a shorter uranium enrichment suspension than the 20-year US proposal and rejected dismantling its nuclear facilities in any future talks with the US, according to WSJ.
• US lawmakers are considering a potential congressional authorisation for military action if the US-Iran ceasefire ends, according to Semafor.
• "Diplomacy and back channel talks and contacts between Iran and US to work out a draft agreement continues to be in the works -- Diplomacy is not dead", Journalist Mallick posted.
• US officials cited by Iran International said Iran's response to the US proposal has blocked the path to a diplomatic solution with Tehran; "The next steps by Trump after receiving Iran's negative response are still unclear".
• Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baghaei said Iran’s proposal to the US “was not excessive,” and that the US continues to have “unreasonable demands.”. He further stated that "currently, we are focusing our discussions on ending the war and the uranium issue, which we will discuss later."
• Tehran reiterates "its main condition for the ceasefire is the cessation of conflicts on all fronts, from Gaza and Lebanon to Yemen", Mehr reported.
• Iranian source told Tasnim "We saw the reaction of the US president to the Iranian answer. It is of no importance. No one in Iran drafts proposals to please Trump. The negotiating team writes proposals only for the rights of the Iranian people...".
• Iranian media reported overnight that air defence systems in the southwest of the country shot down an enemy reconnaissance drone, Israeli N12 reported.
• Israeli PM Netanyahu said removal of Iranian nuclear material remains a war priority and that US President Trump told him 'I want to go in' regarding Iranian nuclear sites.
• Israeli PM Netanyahu is holding security consultations following Iran’s response to the US proposal.
• Two interceptors were launched from Kiryat Shmona area to southern Lebanon following the identification of a suspicious aerial target, according to N12.
• Hezbollah said it targeted Israeli force stationed inside a house in Baidar al-Faqaani in the town of Taybeh for the second time. Israeli media said officers in Northern Command reveal an increase in Hezbollah attacks without the public being informed about them.
• WSJ writes that as US President Trump prepares to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing this week, the ongoing US-Israel war against Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is expected to dominate discussions.
• UK and France will host a meeting on Tuesday with the presence of defence ministers of dozens of countries to discuss the situation in the Strait of Hormuz.
• Three tankers carrying 6mln barrels of oil exited the Strait of Hormuz, Sky News reported citing new data.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks traded mixed as the region reflected on last Friday's tech rally and NFP beat, as well as firmer-than-expected Chinese data, and geopolitical developments with US President Trump rejecting Iran's response to the peace proposal. ASX 200 was dragged lower by heavy losses in the health care sector as CSL shares slumped by around 19% after it flagged a USD 5bln impairment, while sentiment was also not helped by a report that Australia’s government is to scrap the 50% capital gains tax discount by July 2027. Nikkei 225 initially climbed to a fresh record high north of the 63,000 level but then wiped out its gains amid headwinds from higher oil prices and weak earnings outlooks for the likes of Nintendo and Honda. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were varied amid the mixed fortunes among the tech names in Hong Kong, and with the mainland boosted after Chinese trade and inflation data topped forecasts.

Top Asian News

• South Korea Finance Minister said economic growth is to exceed 2% this year.

European bourses (STOXX 600 -0.2%) trade mixed to start the week, despite the surge in energy prices. Over the weekend, US President Trump rejected Iran’s response to the peace plan and called it totally unacceptable. The FTSE 100 outperforms its peers while the CAC 40 lags. Sectors point to a mixed picture. Telecoms top the sector pile, followed by Banks amid the higher yield environment. Consumer Products & Services underperforms, with luxury names such as LVMH, Hermes and Kering falling by various degrees (0.8-2.5%).

Top European News

• UK PM Starmer said the local election results were "very tough" and reiterated he takes responsibility for election loss and will not step down. On the UK-EU relationship, he said Brexit has made the UK weaker and migration higher and vowed to rebuild the EU relationship.
• Talk of UK Cabinet resignations today. However, Mail on Sunday's Hodges expects such interventions to start later in the week, would be surprised to see any today.
• UK Manchester Mayor Burnham said to have identified a specific MP who is on board with a plan to stand down and let him run, POLITICO reported, citing sources.
• UK Labour Backbencher Catherine West told POLITICO she wants to “give a deadline” of Tuesday morning for the required 81 MPs to back her and force a leadership contest. West told POLITICO on Sunday that she still intends to watch Starmer this morning and make up her mind about whether to launch a leadership challenge. “If it’s an amazing speech, then I will think twice about asking the Parliamentary Labour Party for their support,” she told the Telegraph.

FX

• Snapshot: G10s are mostly lower against the USD, with action dictated by the strength seen across the energy complex; the CHF and JPY lag whilst the Loonie holds afloat. The NOK is a touch stronger this morning, following an uptick in the region’s core inflation.
• DXY is slightly firmer this morning, and trades towards the lower end of a 97.96-98.15 range. The index has been lifted by renewed geopolitical risk, after President Trump called Iran’s latest peace offer as “totally unacceptable” – as such, the crude complex is bid this morning. Domestically, tier 1 data is lacking this morning, but attention will turn to US CPI on Tuesday. Fed speak today includes Kashkari and Hammack (both dissenters at the April confab). ING opines that continued geopolitical unrest this week could see the index traverse back above the 98.00 mark, and trade within a 98.00-98.50 range.
• JPY and CHF are underperforming this morning, driven lower by their net-importer of energy statuses. For the USD/JPY specifically, it trades back towards the 157.00 mark, within a 156.55-157.17 range; further upside could see the pair head back towards its 100-DMA at 157.38. Domestic updates have been lacking for the JPY, but focus will be on US Treasury Secretary Bessent’s meeting with Japanese officials early this week.
• GBP is currently incrementally lower. PM Starmer remains on the wires at the time of publication; comments thus far remains very much as expected, where he reiterated that he will not step down. Markets await commentary from Catherine West, who has threatened a leadership challenge against Starmer, if she was left unsatisfied by his remarks. MUFG writes, “we continue to believe that a shift to the left for the Labour party would trigger at least a temporary period of pound selling”. Cable currently trades just above the 1.3600 mark, within a 1.3557-1.3614 range.
• Antipodeans are currently diverging, with the Aussie holding afloat against the Dollar, whilst the Kiwi moves a touch lower. Overnight, both were pressured by the downbeat risk tone, but the Aussie has managed to clamber higher thereafter. Some of the strength may be facilitated by the outperformance in the Yuan, after Chinese trade and inflation data topped forecasts.

Fixed Income

• Fixed benchmarks are generally on the backfoot as energy benchmarks opened higher and extended at the start of the week as the negotiating process made no progress on the weekend, with the US and Iran essentially rejecting each other's positions. We now await any revised proposal(s) before looking to the meeting between Chinese President Xi and US President Trump, from Wednesday.
• USTs hit a 110-15 low, with downside of just under 10 ticks, early doors. Since, as the energy space wanes from highs, fixed income has lifted off worst. USTs are now lower by around five ticks and to a 110-23 peak. If the upside continues, we look to resistance at 110-28 and 111-03+ from Thursday and Friday, respectively.
• Gilts underperform vs peer, as markets await a potential leadership challenge against PM Starmer. He remains on the wires at the time of publication, where his comments thus far have largely been as expected; he reiterated that he does not intend to step down. Markets will await updates from Catherine West, who could launch a leadership challenge against the PM if she is not satisfied by his remarks. Gilts are off by around 45 ticks, within a 87.10 to 87.45 range.
• Bunds in-fitting with USTs. Lower by 35 ticks to a 125.35 base early doors. Since, as energy eases, Bunds have trimmed much of the initial pressure and hold off a 125.56 peak, lower by c. 10 ticks.

Commodities

• Geopolitics continues to be the underlying driving force of price action. In short, Iran submitted its response to the latest US proposal to end the war, with Trump calling it “TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE”. Iranian state media said the US proposal amounted to Tehran surrendering to Trump’s excessive demands. Iran’s counter-position stressed US compensation for war damages, recognition of Iranian sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, sanctions relief and release of blocked assets. In terms of diplomacy, Pakistani journalist Mallick posted, "To my understanding, Contrary to publicly put out positions and statements, diplomacy and back channel talks and contacts between Iran and US to work out a draft agreement continues to be in the works -- Diplomacy is not dead”.
• WTI and Brent futures are firmer but off best levels following the initial pop higher on the rejection, with the prospect of ongoing efforts to negotiate taking some sting out of the punchy rhetoric from the US and Iran. WTI Jun hit a high of USD 100.37/bbl (vs low 96.92/bbl) before waning levels under USD 97.70/bbl at the time of writing, though still +2% intraday. Brent July has dipped back under USD 104/bbl from an earlier USD 105.99/bbl peak. Dutch TTF also rose in early trade before waning from a high near EUR 45.50/MWh to a low just under EUR 44.50/MWh.
• Spot gold is modestly softer as the firmer crude prices keep the USD underpinned, though the bullion resides in a narrow USD 4,648.09-4,705.56/oz range at the time of writing, remaining under its 100 DMA (USD 4,781/oz). Spot silver, however, is choppy on either side of the USD 80/oz mark after briefly topping Friday’s USD 81.57/oz peak, with the 100 DMA at USD 80.60/oz.
• Base metals are mixed with sentiment cautiously positive in recent trade as energy prices came off best levels and provided a slight boost to the risk tone. 3M LME copper remains north of USD 13.5k/t in a USD 13,515.70-13,650.20/t range.
• Saudi crude oil supply to China is set to fall to a record low of about 10mln barrels in June, sources say.
• Japan's Industry Ministry said the first Central Asian crude tanker since Iran war has set sail for Japan.

Trade/Tariffs

• Indian official said Indian official said the US trade team will reach India soon for discussions; there is no plan to hike duties on gold and silver imports.

US Event Calendar

• 10:00 am: United States Apr Existing Home Sales, est. 4.05m, prior 3.98m

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Good evening from Phoenix airport where I'm glad it’s a stopover to the West Coast and not the final destination as its seemingly 40 degrees plus out there! My Oura ring tells me I had 3hr 58 mins sleep on the plane. Hopefully a bit more will follow at the final destination before jet lag well and truly kicks in. I have 12 hours before I have to be presentable and coherent.

It has now been 73 days since the war in Iran began, with the past 32 marked by a stalemate characterised by a mix of truce and ongoing ceasefire. The absence of any meaningful kinetic activity for over a month suggests to me a firm US preference for reaching a deal. However, a counterpoint is that uncertainty over who holds negotiating authority in Iran may be complicating progress and delaying more difficult times ahead. It remains an unusual conflict with little action now for a month. In simple terms though, as long as the Strait of Hormuz stays closed, markets remain on a knife edge. Polymarket currently assigns a 50% probability to it fully reopening by 30 June.

The latest is that oil and yields are up again this morning as President Trump has posted that "I have just read the response from Iran's so called 'Representatives'" which he went on to call "TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE". This was based on a WSJ report that suggested Iran was offering to transfer some of highly enriched uranium to another country but wouldn't dismantle its nuclear facilities. Iran's official news agency has disputed the report anyway. Brent is up +4.23% and 10yr US yields are up +3.5bps. However, US and European equity futures are largely flat and Asian equities are largely higher on the AI trade. The KOSPI is on fire again with the index up +4.0% as semiconductors surge again. The index has crossed +85% YTD.

This comes ahead of the planned mid-to end week meeting between US President Donald Trump and China’s President Xi Jinping in Beijing. It’ll be interesting to see whether this meeting does anything to shape negotiations in the war. Both leaders would clearly like to show their influence on the world stage. So certainly a big headline event.

Before that, the new week arrives with markets still processing last Friday’s US payrolls report, which came in broadly firm and reinforced the view that labour market conditions remain resilient. While not strong enough to decisively alter the policy outlook, the release did little to ease concerns that underlying inflation pressures could persist, especially given still-solid wage dynamics. Against this backdrop, outside of the Iran War developments which will of course take centre stage, the coming week will remain centred on the US, with a dense run of data and policy developments.

The focal point will be tomorrow’s April CPI report. Our economists expect headline inflation to rise by +0.58% month-on-month, moderating from March’s +0.9%, but still relatively firm. In contrast, the core measure is projected to accelerate to +0.39% MoM from +0.2%, suggesting underlying price pressures remain sticky even as energy-related effects fade. The YoY rates would move from 3.3% to 3.8% for the former and from 2.6% to 2.8% for the latter. See Matt Luzzetti's piece here on five doubts around the US disinflation story and his team's CPI preview piece here.

Producer price data follows on Wednesday and then the remainder of the week shifts towards activity indicators. Our economists expect retail sales to decline by -0.3% MoM after March’s strong +1.7% increase, pointing to some payback in consumer spending. Meanwhile, industrial production is forecast to rise modestly by +0.2% MoM following a -0.5% drop previously, suggesting a tentative stabilisation in manufacturing output.

Policy and politics will also be important. A Senate vote on Kevin Warsh’s nomination as Fed Chair is scheduled for today, just days before Jerome Powell’s term is set to expire at the end of the week. It's possible the vote could get pushed back a day or so due to other Senate business but by the end of the week you would expect Warsh to have taken Miran's seat on the board with Powell staying on the committee.
In Europe, inflation readings from Denmark and Norway today are followed with Germany’s ZEW survey tomorrow with sentiment darkening even with the nation's extraordinary fiscal package. Later in the week, the ECB’s economic bulletin may offer additional context on the central bank’s assessment of inflation and activity trends.

In the UK, attention will be split between politics and macro. The State Opening of Parliament and the King’s Speech on Wednesday will outline the government’s legislative agenda for the year ahead. With PM Starmer under tremendous pressure following the very poor (but broadly as expected) local election results on Thursday there is talk of a leadership challenge as soon as today. Backbench MP Catherine West has said she will stand, which would be a stalking horse nomination. However, many left-wing MPs (as she is) have urged her not to as their preferred candidate Andy Burnham is not currently an MP. They fear an election now might be a bit too early and may allow a more moderate candidate like Wes Streeting to prevail. So timing tactics could prolong Starmer’s reign. A reminder that in September last year, Mr Burnham said that the UK should no longer be “in hock to the bond markets”. This caused a spike in Gilt yields and although he subsequently downplayed the remarks, this is something to watch carefully as we navigate the politics of the next few days and weeks. On the data side, Q1 UK GDP on Thursday will offer up the latest state of play growth wise.

In Asia, Japan’s schedule includes household spending data tomorrow, alongside the Economy Watchers survey and bank lending figures on Wednesday. In addition, the Bank of Japan will publish its summary of opinions from the April meeting, which should provide greater insight into policymakers’ thinking and any emerging shifts in the policy stance.

There are multiple appearances from Fed, ECB, BoE and BoJ officials throughout the week, and on the corporate front, earnings continue at a steadier pace. In the US, Cisco and Applied Materials are among the key names, while internationally the focus includes major firms such as Tencent, Alibaba, Siemens and Bayer. See the day-by-day calendar at the end as usual for a fuller week ahead preview.

In terms of data in Asia, China's trade data released on Saturday showed exports surging +14.1% YoY (+8.4% expected) with imports up +25.3% (+20.0% expected). Inflation released this morning showed CPI climbing +1.2% YoY (+0.9% expected), the same number for core, with PPI up +2.8% (+1.8% expected). Commodity prices seem to have pushed inflation higher than expected.

Recapping last week now, markets advanced amidst hopes that the US and Iran would come to an agreement to end the war. The gains came despite both sides trading attacks on Thursday and Friday, as Trump reiterated that a ceasefire between the two sides remained intact. The initial catalyst of the market optimism occurred on Tuesday, when an Axios report announced that the US and Iran were close to agreeing on a framework that would end the war and ahead of more detailed nuclear negotiations. So that triggered a fall in oil prices, with Brent crude down (-6.43%) over the week (+1.16% on Friday) to $101.22/bbl, though 6-month Brent futures were stable (-0.11%) at $87.30/bbl after a +2.19% rally on Friday.

US equities surged to new highs, with the S&P 500 (+2.34%, +0.85% on Friday) posting a sixth consecutive weekly advance, whilst the Nasdaq (+4.30%, +1.51% on Friday), Mag-7 (+3.87%, +0.81% on Friday) and  Philadelphia Semiconductor Stock Exchange (+10.57%, +4.97% on Friday) rose to new highs as well. In addition to the slide in oil, the rally was also driven by strong earnings in AI and solid US data. The highlight on the latter was the April jobs report on Friday, which showed payrolls rising by +115k (+65k expected), though this was combined with slightly slower average earnings growth (+3.6% yoy vs +3.8% exp). We did see some less positive survey data, including U Mich consumer confidence data for May (48.2 vs 49.5 est) on Friday and the NY Fed’s latest 1yr inflation expectations (3.64% vs 3.5% exp). Put together, this left Treasuries little changed over the week, with 10yr yields down -0.9bps to 4.36% (-2.5bps Friday), while 2yr yields were up +1.0bps to 3.89% (-2.2bps Friday).

In Europe, a key story were the UK local elections, which showed the governing Labour Party suffering heavy losses, whilst Nigel Farage’s Reform UK party saw major gains. However, these results were largely expected and 10yr gilt yields outperformed on Friday (-3.6bps) and were down -5.2bps over the week.

Elsewhere in Europe, yields on 10yr bunds (-3.1ps, +0.3bps Friday), OATs (-7.1bps, -0.4bps Friday) and BTPs (-13.1bps, -1.2bps Friday) also declined amid lower oil prices. European equities mostly advanced, although their gains were pared back amidst the ongoing Iran uncertainty going into the weekend, with the STOXX 600 (+0.10%, -0.69% Friday) and DAX (+0.19%, -1.32% on Friday) marginally higher, though the FTSE 100 (-1.26%, -0.43% Friday) lost ground. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/11/2026 - 08:35

Memory Crunch Sends Nintendo Shares Deeper Into Bear Market

Nintendo shares plunged deeper into bear-market territory Monday after the company's full-year operating income forecast missed Bloomberg Consensus estimates. Traders were spooked on soft Switch 2 hardware and software guidance, and the margin squeeze from surging memory-chip costs continues to weigh on earnings, first pointed out by Goldman in late Decemeber.

Nintendo forecast 16.5 million Switch 2 console sales and 60 million software copies this year, disappointing Wall Street analysts who were expecting a much stronger forecast after the console's launch nearly one year ago. The company warned that memory prices and tariffs could hit the business by about ¥100 billion ($640 million), prompting price hikes of the handheld gaming device.

Nintendo's fourth-quarter results were mixed (courtesy of Bloomberg):

• Operating income 59.72 billion yen, +71% y/y, estimate 74.78 billion yen

• Net income 65.19 billion yen, +57% y/y, estimate 63.44 billion yen

• Net sales 407.17 billion yen, +95% y/y, estimate 415.46 billion yen

Asymmetric Advisors analyst Amir Anvarzadeh told clients, "There is cause for concern here that goes beyond hardware cost issues," adding, "As markets ponder the fate of its hardware margins, Nintendo's software sales — the key to its profits — are starting to notably sputter, reflecting weaker pull from its franchises."

Goldman analyst Maho Kamiya warned clients about the memory crunch hitting Nintendo's margins as far back as late December. As a result, Nintendo has raised the US price of the Switch 2 to about $500.

Nintendo's 2027 outlook also disappointed analysts, coming in well below estimates across nearly every metric (courtesy of Bloomberg):

Sees operating income 370.00 billion yen, estimate 480.29 billion yen (Bloomberg Consensus)

Sees net income 310.00 billion yen, estimate 420.12 billion yen

Sees net sales 2.05 trillion yen, estimate 2.52 trillion yen

• Sees Switch 2 hardware sales 16.50 million units
• Sees Switch 2 software sales 60.00 million units

Sees dividend 162.00 yen, estimate 223.36 yen

Sees FX assumption 150 yen/USD

Sees FX assumption 175 yen/EUR

Analyst commentary was broadly negative, courtesy of Bloomberg:

Citi (Tokiya Baba)

• Guidance includes a ¥100 billion impact from higher component prices centered on memory chips as well as US tariff effects

• The Switch 2 price hike timing is a surprise, and it will raise concerns about near-term sales momentum deceleration

• However, announcing the early price change appears to have partially resolved the Switch 2 profitability deterioration concerns that have weighed on the stock

• The company targets Switch 2 volume of 16.5mn units (-3.36mn units YoY) and software volume of 165mn units (-20.62mn units YoY, excluding Switch 2 bundled software)

SMBC Nikko (Eiji Maeda)

• Investor expectations had likely already declined due to rising memory chip prices, but there is a risk of a further negative stock price reaction to the company's forecasts

• While guidance looks conservative, it's necessary to keep a close eye on the impact of price hikes on sales

Jefferies (Atul Goyal)

• The operating profit forecast looks conservative, as the company's past pattern dictates

• 2nd year for Switch 2 is crucial and our non-consensus view is that the company will release a Mario AAA title this year

Bernstein (Robin Zhu)

• Investors focus chiefly on what the summer showcase season might bring that might help shore up investor confidence. Nintendo's first-party pipeline remains the key.

Morningstar (Kazunori Ito)

• Why would Nintendo issue guidance for declining software sales when they should be ramping up user activity in the console's crucial second year? ... It's baffling.

In Tokyo, Nintendo shares plunged 9%, falling deeper into bear-market territory and down around 34% on the year. Much of the stock's run-up on Switch 2 hype has been erased since memory became an issue in late 2025.

"SoftBank, Toyota and Nintendo weighed on both benchmarks, with Nintendo dropping as much as 10% after the Switch 2 maker's sales forecast disappointed the market," UBS analyst Sarath Kutty wrote in a note.

Our reporting:

• Soaring Memory Costs Sink Nintendo Shares; Goldman Says Selloff Is Buy-The-Dip Opportunity

• Nintendo Profit Misses As Soaring Memory Prices Could Become Major Headache

• "Awful News": Nintendo Shares Get 'Donkey Konged' After Switch 2 Production Cut

It has been very clear to us since late last year that the memory crunch would hit Nintendo.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/11/2026 - 08:05

Qatari LNG Tanker Abruptly U-Turns In Hormuz Chokepoint After Weekend Transit Breakthrough

Day 72 of the U.S.-Iran conflict opened with yet another failed diplomatic off-ramp.

Tehran on Sunday submitted a counterproposal to the Trump administration's plan to end the war, but President Trump swiftly rejected it as "totally unacceptable," pushing WTI crude futures roughly 3% higher to $98 a barrel as traders slightly repriced the war-risk premium higher for a prolonged Strait of Hormuz disruption.

Tehran's counterproposal was a major focus over the weekend, but what caught our attention Saturday morning was a note from Bloomberg reporter Stephen Stapczynski citing ship-tracking data showing that an LNG tanker had successfully transited the critical waterway unharmed.

In fact, this was the first time Qatar had exported LNG through the Strait since the war began ten weeks ago. The tanker later made a port call in Pakistan.

By Monday morning, Stapczynski was tracking another fully loaded LNG tanker called "Mihzem."

"Another Qatar LNG shipment is nearing the Strait of Hormuz, bound for Pakistan," Stapczynski wrote on X.

He added, "Pakistan is dealing with a gas shortage, and has negotiated with Iran for several LNG shipments. If successful, this would be the second LNG cargo to transit Hormuz for Pakistan in a few days."

Another Qatar LNG shipment is nearing the Strait of Hormuz, bound for Pakistan
🇵🇰🤝🇮🇷 🤝🇶🇦

Pakistan is dealing with a gas shortage, and negotiated with Iran for several LNG shipments

If successful, this would be the second LNG cargo to transit Hormuz for Pakistan in a few days pic.twitter.com/lKS9qh3de5

— Stephen Stapczynski (@SStapczynski) May 11, 2026

Stapczynski's X post and report about the second Qatar LNG tanker attempting to transit the maritime chokepoint came early Monday.

By 0700 ET, new ship-tracking data showed that the Mihzem abruptly reversed course roughly 20 miles before reaching Hormuz Island.

There was no official explanation for the U-turn, leaving open the possibility of security concerns and/or transit clearance issues. It is certainly not a good sign for hopes that Hormuz tensions are abating.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/11/2026 - 07:45

People Are Seeing More Fireballs; Astronomers Can't Explain It...

Authored by T.J.Muscaro via The Epoch Times,

Just as it faces an annual hurricane season and tornado season, North America is also experiencing an annual “fireball season,” according to NASA.

“From February through April, the appearance rate of these very bright meteors can increase by as much as 10 percent to 30 percent, especially around the weeks of the March equinox,” NASA explained in a statement in late March.

”Exactly why is not known. Some astronomers think the Earth passes through more large debris at this time of year, causing an uptick in fireball sightings.”

But the relatively regular peak season appears to have been unusually active this year.

Fireball videos recorded worldwide between January and April 2026. The American Meteor Society said 41 large fireball events were reported in the first three months of 2026—nearly double the average number of reported events for that time period from the previous five years. Courtesy of American Meteor Society

The American Meteor Society, which has gathered professional and amateur meteor reports since 1911, said 41 large fireball events—observed by more than 50 people—were reported in the first three months of 2026. That’s nearly double the average number of reported events for that time period from the previous five years.

Mike Hankey, operations manager at the American Meteor Society, told The Epoch Times that this is specifically an increase in “sporadic” meteors that are not connected to any larger comet or asteroid or regularly tracked meteor shower. And the sudden surge is not due to an increase in the number of eyes on the sky, he said.

Astronomers who have dedicated themselves to watching the skies for the falling space rocks are not sure what caused the spike or if it is even a true anomaly—a one-off, unpredictable occurrence.

Hankey stops short of saying his data—an analysis of fireball events going back to 2011—are conclusive.

“I wouldn’t say that it’s an earth-shattering anything,” he said. “It’s just an observation, right? It’s just saying, ‘Hey, this is the most traffic we’ve ever had in any single month.’

“Without publishing a paper to prove that, I can’t say, ‘Oh, it’s not a statistical anomaly.’ Maybe it is.”

In the meantime, here’s what to know about these events.

What Is a ‘Fireball’?

The term “fireball” is essentially NASA’s designation for what kids would call a shooting star—a small piece of space debris whose self-destructive path through Earth’s atmosphere creates a streaking fireball brighter than the brilliant planet Venus.

The space agency released a meteor-focused FAQ page after multiple “fireball events” went viral in early spring.

Any space rocks that are more than a meter in diameter are called “asteroids,” and anything smaller is called a “meteoroid.” Meteoroids normally break off from a comet or asteroid, but on rare occasions have been found to be parts of the moon or Mars.

When either an asteroid or a meteoroid enters Earth’s atmosphere and starts to streak across the sky, it becomes a “meteor.“ When multiple objects enter the atmosphere from the same origin point, that event is called a ”meteor shower.”

When a meteor reaches an observable brightness greater than the luminosity of Venus in the morning or evening sky, it becomes registered as a “fireball.”

“They enter the atmosphere at relatively low speeds,” Hankey explained in a press release. “Slower entry means the meteor lasts longer in the sky, is visible over a wider area, produces sonic booms more often, and more material survives to reach the ground as meteorites.”

Any pieces of the meteor that survive the trip through the atmosphere and make it to Earth’s surface are called meteorites.

A graphic illustrating meteor terminology. Illustration by The Epoch Times, Freepik, Getty Images

For example, on March 17, a fireball was spotted over parts of Canada and the United States, breaking apart over northern Ohio. NASA confirmed the falling object to be an asteroid six feet in diameter and weighing about seven tons. Upon entering the atmosphere at 45,000 mph, it became a meteor. Then, it got so bright it became a fireball that eventually blew up mid-air, resulting in meteorite fragments falling to the ground.

While this event caught the nation’s attention, NASA said it is not that rare.

“Meteors are actually quite common,” the space agency explained. ”They occur all the time, and fireballs can be seen on any given night. But they often occur over the ocean or unpopulated areas with no witnesses, or during the daytime, making them difficult to spot.

“Viewers who catch a clear view of one in the dark skies above are treated to a spectacular sky show—but one that is hardly rare.”

(Left) A meteor streaks across the sky during the annual Perseid meteor shower in Spruce Knob, W. Va., on Aug. 11, 2021. (Right) A fireball event observed in Black River Falls, Wis., on Jan. 24, 2026. Bill Ingalls/NASA, Justin J. via www.amsmeteors.org

Tracking Fireballs

Most of the time, fireballs are small objects that create a flash across the sky lasting only a few seconds, Hankey told The Epoch Times. However, some can be big enough to create a sonic boom and deliver some fragments to the ground, possibly causing damage to lives and property.

Regardless of the scale of the event, the American Meteor Society urges those who witness a fireball to file a report on its website, noting when and where they saw the fireball, how long it shone in the sky, whether or not they heard a sonic boom, and whether or not they observed the fireball break up into fragments.

Then, similar to how the National Weather Service sends out assessment teams to confirm tornado sightings submitted by its spotter network, the society tasks teams to assess the reports coming in. Those teams will officially confirm the falling meteor and send out recovery teams to search for and collect any surviving fragments. More than 200 fragments were found from the March 17 fireball event alone.

(Left) A still from a video captures a fireball in Kennerdell, Pa., on March 17, 2026. (Right) A still from a home security camera video captures a fireball in Ravenna, Ohio, on March 17, 2026. Courtesy of Jeff Campbell, David Hamann/American Meteor Society

The society also utilizes the 1,000-camera All Sky 7 network to keep as close an eye on the night sky as possible.

Hankey joined the society in 2010. A software developer by trade, he rebuilt the organization’s website and fireball reporting tool and continues to use Google Maps and Claude AI to streamline the collection and organization of the society’s data.

That data—often organically acquired as people file observational reports—produces new insights into the field of astronomy and space weather. Through this data collection, the society is able to figure out a meteor’s speed, size, and origin.

NASA, meanwhile, has its own eyes on the sky with the NASA All-Sky Fireball Network, a group of 17 cameras spread out across the country, run by the NASA Meteoroid Environment Office.

Three of those cameras are located in Florida, three in the northern Ohio/Pennsylvania area, and five in southern New Mexico and Arizona. Six others are found in north Alabama, north Georgia, southern Tennessee, and southern North Carolina.

NASA’s Meteoroid Environment Office also focuses on understanding how much of a risk these meteor impacts and their apparently seasonal fluctuations pose to spacecraft flying in and beyond Earth’s orbit.

An illustration depicts NASA’s Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) spacecraft prior to impact at the Didymos binary asteroid system. The mission tested whether intentionally crashing a spacecraft into an asteroid is an effective way to change its course, should an Earth-threatening asteroid be discovered in the future. Steve Gribben/Johns Hopkins APL/NASA

However, most fireballs are very small and are very difficult to track.

“The objects are pretty small, you know,” Hankey said. “A golf ball will make a fireball. A bowling ball will make a huge fireball. Something that’s like the size of a chair would make a humongous fireball. But to a telescope a million miles away, it’s not even a speck.”

NASA’s planetary defense network specifically looks for space rocks that are 140 meters or larger—larger than a small football stadium—which are deemed large enough to cause widespread damage if they breach the earth’s atmosphere.

Unclear If Fireball ‘Spike’ Is an Anomaly

But Hankey noted that as more and more data are collected over the years, the recent, seemingly random spike in sporadic fireballs may turn out to be not so random after all.

He pointed out that another spike in large fireball events was logged in the first quarter of 2021, although that number was still less than this year’s: 30 events reported by at least 50 people each, compared to 41.

The American Meteor Society published a graph of the number of fireball events reported by more than 50 people during the first quarter of the last 15 years in March, 2026. Illustrated by The Epoch Times, Courtesy of the American Meteor Society

“If we see that same spike in 2031, I mean, it’s a long way to wait—five more years—but that might say something,” he said. “If we can say, ‘Look, the AMS saw this same spike in five-year increments,’ then we would hypothesize that we would see it in the fourth year. If we did, we could probably prove it, right?”

“I mean, I’ll probably be almost 70 at that point,” he added. “That’s just the way astronomy is.”

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/11/2026 - 07:20

Norovirus Outbreak Sickens 115 People on Caribbean Princess Cruise Ship, CDC Says

Authored by Aldgra Fredly via The Epoch Times,

More than 110 people aboard the Caribbean Princess cruise ship have fallen ill due to a norovirus outbreak, a common cause of gastrointestinal illnesses, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

The Caribbean Princess, owned by Princess Cruises, departed from the port of Fort Lauderdale, Florida, on April 28 and is currently sailing in the North Atlantic Ocean, according to CruiseMapper.

The voyage dates were April 28 to May 11. The ship is carrying 3,116 passengers and 1,131 crew members and is expected to arrive in Port Canaveral, Florida, on May 11.

The norovirus outbreak was reported on the ship on May 7, affecting 102 passengers and 13 crew members, with diarrhea and vomiting identified as the predominant symptoms, the CDC said in an update.

Princess Cruises and the crew have increased cleaning and disinfection procedures in response to the outbreak, the CDC stated. Other measures include collecting stool samples from patients with gastrointestinal illness for testing and isolating passengers and crew members who have fallen ill.

The crew also consulted with the CDC’s Vessel Sanitation Program (VSP) regarding sanitation cleaning procedures and reporting of sick individuals, the agency said.

“VSP is conducting a field response for an environmental assessment and outbreak investigation to assist the ship in controlling the outbreak,” it stated.

The Epoch Times has reached out to Princess Cruises for comment, but did not receive a response by publication time.

Norovirus is the leading cause of foodborne illness in the United States, accounting for 58 percent of such infections each year, according to the CDC.

Apart from vomiting and diarrhea, other frequently reported symptoms include muscle aches, headaches, abdominal cramps, and fever.

In March, a norovirus outbreak was reported aboard the Star Princess, also owned by Princess Cruises, affecting 104 passengers and 49 crew members. Last December, a norovirus outbreak on an Aida Cruises ship sickened more than 100 people.

Cruise ships are required to report cases of gastrointestinal illness to the CDC. The agency said that reporting symptoms to the medical center onboard can help health officials detect gastrointestinal outbreaks quickly and take steps to limit the spread of illness.

Medical staff would then evaluate symptoms to determine whether they meet the case definition for the illness, including three or more loose stools within a 24-hour period or vomiting along with another symptom such as diarrhea, aching muscles, or fever.

On average, norovirus causes around 900 deaths, mainly in adults aged 65 and older, 109,000 hospitalizations, 465,000 emergency room visits, and 19 million to 21 million illnesses in the United States each year, according to the CDC.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/11/2026 - 06:30

These Are The World's Deadliest Countries For Journalists

At least 60 media professionals were killed in 2025 due to their journalistic activities, according to the Reporters Without Borders (RSF) database.

As Statista's Valentine Fourreau detsils below, by far the deadliest place for journalists was in the Palestinian territories, where 25 deaths were officially recorded last year. Palestine also topped the list in 2024, with 21 recorded deaths that year.

You will find more infographics at Statista

Following some way behind are Mexico with nine deaths, Peru with four, Ecuador and Ukraine with three, as well as Bangladesh, the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Sudan with two.

A single journalist was also killed in each of the following countries: Colombia, Guatemala, Honduras, India, Nepal, the Philippines, Saudi Arabia, Sierra Leone, Uzbekistan and Zimbabwe.

Meanwhile, 140 journalists and media professionals were listed as “disappeared” last year, with the highest numbers recorded in Syria (37), Mexico (28) and Iraq (12).

Reporters Without Borders emphasizes that media professionals’ deaths are only listed in their database if the NGO can confirm it as being linked to their journalistic work.

This explains why these figures seem low and that they are subject to change as fact-checking is carried out.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/11/2026 - 05:45

A BrAIve New World For High Yield

Authored by Luke Coha via BondVigilantes.com,

As the world grapples with how AI will shape and change our lives going forward from the mundane, like automated homes or more clever apps, to more existential threats (opportunities?) leading to job and possibly sector obsolescence and related, broader social implications, it’s definitely well accepted that the demand for AI computing power is enormous and growing.

Estimates vary, but they are all astronomical, ranging from $5 trillion to $7 trillion in capital investment needed to fund the global data centre and AI buildout, including adding 122 GW of power capacity between now and 2030 (according to JP Morgan). This scale of investment will require involvement from virtually all sources of funding, including public capital markets, private credit, governments and asset-backed securitisation funding.

While not nearly on the same scale as investment grade markets, high yield markets have been playing, and will continue to play, a role in this buildout financing mostly via the funding of data centres. This has important implications for the asset class. In very short order, AI related and data centre issuance has exploded from effectively nothing just over a year ago to nearly $40 billion today, with close to $30 billion issued since the start of the year.

This sheer quantum of issuance is huge and effectively amounts to an entirely new subsector created nearly overnight within the high yield market. The vast majority of this issuance is index eligible and currently represents approximately 1.6% of the Global High Yield Bond Index (and 2.6% of the U.S. High Yield Bond Index). What’s more, from estimates we’ve seen, expectations are for total high yield, AI related issuance to reach $100 billion to $120 billion over the next few years.

Should this manifest, it would represent close to 4% to 5% of the global index and 6% to 7% of the U.S. index, of similar scale as long existing and well established retail and capital goods subsectors. This scale, coupled with mostly above index level yields, makes it difficult, if not impossible, for active managers that are benchmark-aware to ignore. It will be imperative to understand the broader narrative as well as the idiosyncratic characteristics of the individual issuers. As stated, this is effectively a new sector to the market and participants, such as analysts, strategists and fund managers, need to, if they haven’t already done so, get up to speed quickly.

At the time of writing there are now 15 high yield data centre bonds totalling $39 billion (including neocloud provider CoreWeave). High yield data centre bond issuance has coalesced around similar, project-finance-like features but with important variations.

Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research. Note: excludes issuance by neocloud CoreWeave, which has $6.5bn of regular-way HY bonds outstanding

Generally, bonds are being issued with five-year non call two-year structures and mostly amortising. By definition these issuers will have more leverage than traditional IG issuers but some will have financial backstops from the likes of Google, while others will not. Most will have high-quality tenants like Nvidia, and hyperscalers like Amazon, Microsoft and Meta, while others will have a variety of tenants. Some are single asset facilities while others are multi-site and multijurisdictional. Some will be well advanced in their construction timeline while others will have yet to have broken ground. Some will have contracted power supply including back up power, and some are still negotiating power supply agreements… you get the idea. And that’s leaving aside the complexities around lease terms, cost overrun provisions, covenants etc.

There are already rumblings in the high yield market surrounding concerns that the explosion in issuance has bubble-like characteristics similar to that of telecoms in the early 2000s or energy in 2015 to 2017, when investor enthusiasm outweighed a sober assessment of risk. These same critics also worry about the potential for overbuild or overcapacity, i.e. the massive demand fails to materialise, or that despite the strong tenant base, these contracts have yet to be tested.

Conversely, proponents of the nascent space point to the undeniable demand for more compute capacity and expectations that any individual project disruptions or failures would be tolerated by their well-heeled tenants who, with strong demand for capacity, would support any centres that came into difficulty; and if not, demand is so great, other well capitalised tenants would simply step in. Further, regardless of long term dynamics, there is massive demand now and any project that is up and running, or close to, has a first mover advantage and any capacity concerns etc. are for projects well down the development pipeline.

Further, some view this as an attractive ‘yield to call’ play, inferring that as these projects are up and running and generating more cash, the issuer will have the capacity to refinance their high coupon, high yield issues at more attractive terms, arguably creating a potential short term opportunity for high yield investors.

Ultimately, being completely short the space due to uncertainties requires a high degree of conviction that the sector is mispriced and even vulnerable. Conversely, going overweight the sector is an acceptance of a broader narrative that has only recently manifested itself. All of which highlights that careful credit work on individual issuers and a broader understanding of these dynamics is paramount.

Source: Meta

Bottom line, balancing this supply, index and yield dynamic versus fully understanding the fundamental, technical and issuer risks and rewards is a real challenge for high yield markets. And with all things AI related, we need to understand if this dynamic potentially represents – and if so, how to adapt to – to paraphrase Aldous Huxley, a Brave New World.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/11/2026 - 05:00

Singapore Remains The World's Most Powerful Passport In 2026

Your passport shapes how much of the world you can access. In 2026, the gap between the strongest and weakest passports spans nearly 170 destinations.

This graphic, via Visual Capitalists' Gabriel Cohen, ranks global passport strength using data from the Henley Passport Index, based on how many destinations citizens can enter without a visa.

Singapore leads with access to 192 destinations. That’s nearly five times the access available to citizens of the lowest-ranked countries. Meanwhile, the weakest passports allow entry to fewer than 50 destinations. The disparity highlights how geography, diplomacy, and stability influence global mobility.

The Top Passports of Asia and Europe

Following Singapore, there is a three-way tie for the second-strongest passports, with Japan, South Korea, and the United Arab Emirates each offering access to 187 destinations without a visa.

The UAE has the strongest passport outside of East or Southeast Asia, though with a notable caveat: Emiratis lack visa-free access to the United States, unlike their peers in Singapore, Japan, or South Korea.

From there, Europeans hold many of the strongest passports by visa-free access, led by Northern and Western European countries like Norway and Switzerland (both 185).

While the 27-member European Union has a unified passport system, individual member countries still vary in visa-free access, ranging from 177 destinations for Bulgaria and Romania to 186 for Sweden.

Taking the average across this range, the EU’s overall passport strength stands at 183 visa-free destinations, tied with countries like Malaysia and the United Kingdom and slightly ahead of North American counterparts like Canada (182) and the United States (179).

The World’s Weakest Passports

At the bottom of the ranking, mobility drops off dramatically. The weakest passports offer access to fewer than 50 destinations, less than a quarter of what top-ranked countries enjoy.

These countries often face political instability, high emigration, or recent conflict, which can limit access to many developed regions.

African countries like Nigeria (44), Somalia (32), and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (43) also rank low. Fast-growing populations and large diasporas have contributed to tighter visa restrictions for these nationalities.

A Tale of Two Passports

Taken together, passport rankings reveal more than travel convenience—they map global inequality. Where you’re born can shape where you’re allowed to go, making passport power one of the clearest indicators of opportunity in a connected world.

African, Middle Eastern, and South Asian passports tend to rank lower than their European or Western Hemisphere counterparts. Even higher-ranking exceptions like Malaysia or the UAE can still face limits on visa-free access to major destinations, particularly the United States.

If you enjoyed today’s post, check out The United Arab Emirates has the World’s Most Affordable Passport on Voronoi.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/11/2026 - 04:15

Meanwhile In Scotland...

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

A trans Tamil immigrant on a temporary student visa has just been ELECTED as a Green Party MSP to Holyrood in Scotland – despite having no British citizenship, no permanent residency and no right to full-time work.

Where else would this be allowed to happen? It’s insane.

The candidate, Dr Q Manivannan (they/them), arrived in the UK a few years ago as a PhD student and was selected for the Green list in Edinburgh and the Lothians East. Scotland’s rules – relaxed under the SNP – explicitly allow non-citizens to stand for election and take office.

A trans Indian migrant who arrived in the UK a few years ago and is not a citizen or permanent resident was elected to the Scottish parliament as a member of the woke Green Party. Scotland allows non-citizens to become elected to office.

“Q Mannivannan” is set to earn over… pic.twitter.com/3ePA6B0le1

— Andy Ngo (@MrAndyNgo) May 9, 2026

Trans Green Party candidate with no permanent British visa is elected to Holyrood https://t.co/KCSmyt3YuE

— Daily Mail (@DailyMail) May 10, 2026

Manivannan’s own victory remarks left nothing to the imagination. “My name is Dr Q Manivannan, I am a transgender Tamil immigrant, my pronouns are they/them.” And later: “I am, to some in this country, everything that the hateful despise, and I’m standing here as your MSP now with care.”

Q Manivannan, transgender Indian migrant now Scottish Greens MSP, arguing for 'trans pride'.

"Transness is Blackness. Transness is womanhood. Transness is disability. Transness is everything the world wants you to believe that is unlovable."

He goes on to defend Mridul Wadhwa,… pic.twitter.com/HJOQ6bXqBQ

— 'New Scots' Profiles (@NewScotProfiles) May 10, 2026

The individual is clearly not OK mentally.

He's also racist against White people and suffers extreme mental sickness according to his many posts about it all pic.twitter.com/GrEIiMqZu2

— ddsnorth ™ (@ddsnorth) May 10, 2026

This is not an isolated stunt. The Green Party has become a conduit for an unholy alliance of islamists and gender ideology obsessives.

Deputy leader Mothin Ali was pictured alongside a trans candidate, the awkward expression speaking volumes.

The guy on the left is the Green Party's deputy leader, Mothin Ali; the woman on the right is one of his party's trans candidates. The look on his face says it all. Is there a future for this marriage of convenience between Islamist extremism and woke crankery? I doubt it. pic.twitter.com/v9JJWOkRR9

— Never Again (@Never_Again2020) May 9, 2026

Other recent Green candidates reinforce the pattern. In Preston, new councillor “Tina” Balmer declared: “I want to help the city I love.”

? "I want to help the city I love" – Meet Preston's first ever Green Party councillor, Tina Balmer.??

Tina ffs! ?

Is it Tina but pronounced Trevor? ? pic.twitter.com/GkTmz9zJ4K

— Matt Casey ??????? ?? (@MattCas04807118) May 9, 2026

Here are more Green candidates that stood for election:

Wow these are Green Party Candidates ?

How would you describe this look? pic.twitter.com/FzA29MK4JT

— Benonwine (@benonwine) May 1, 2026

A small compendium of Green Party candidates, make up your own mind about what this says about the state of British politics. pic.twitter.com/9X4nDULsJg

— Kevin Lister (@KevsTribulation) May 8, 2026

"What’s interesting about these Green Party candidates is that they are actually men" pic.twitter.com/DkdTIuL4Ty

— Barry Robson (@barryrobson) May 8, 2026

And here’s the support they’re drawing…

Say hello to 'Kate', from the Redbridge Green Party. Not mental at all… pic.twitter.com/xkVGaXBqXI

— RagingDissident_ (@JustRaging01) February 27, 2026

They’ll lecture you all day long about ‘hate’, meanwhile…

How many Green Party Candidates investigated over antisemitic hate:

Just the thirty. pic.twitter.com/Nuftw4gVnz

— Tom Hawklin Jr (@TomHawklin10558) May 7, 2026

Many of them simply don’t bother to speak English:

GB News host Martin Daubney can't understand the Green Party and neither can we!

Political candidates in Britain should speak English. pic.twitter.com/au6CkSRdVp

— Turning Point UK ?? (@TPointUK) May 8, 2026

Meanwhile, UK Deputy Green Party leader had a meltdown when Piers Morgan asked if in her view women can have penises:

UK Deputy Green Party leader has meltdown after Piers Morgan asked if she thinks women can have “penises.”

“That’s a weird question. Piers it’s a weird question. The answer is the trans community in this country are treated appallingly.” pic.twitter.com/qWVPRg0fdU

— Oli London (@OliLondonTV) May 9, 2026

He asked that question because during a previous exchange, Party leader Zack Polanski went full gender-ideologue, claiming women can have penises and dismissed biological reality.

The party is also pushing to teach schoolchildren they should have a “moral obligation” to accept mass immigration.

The Greens aren’t just pushing open borders and gender ideology – they are the vehicle that fuses the two into one destructive package.

Scotland’s sovereignty is now being exercised by people who aren’t even British citizens, while taxpayers foot the bill for six-figure salaries and the erosion of women’s rights, free speech and national identity.

This isn’t democracy. It’s demographic replacement dressed up as progress – and the Green Party is leading the parade.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/11/2026 - 03:30

EU Prepares For 'Potential' Talks With Putin As US Slowly Reduces Troops On Continent

A recent report in Financial Times indicates the European Union is preparing for "potential" future talks with Russia and President Vladimir Putin at a moment of extreme doubts over both US military commitments and Russia's intentions in Ukraine.

Putin himself during his V-Day speech Saturday hinted for the first time that the conflict may be 'coming to an end':

"I ⁠⁠think that the matter is coming to an end," Putin told reporters of the Russia-Ukraine war, Europe’s deadliest conflict since World War II.

The Russian leader, however, added he would be willing to meet Zelensky only after the terms of a peace agreement had already been settled. The Kremlin had rejected US President Donald Trump’s August 2025 offer to hold a trilateral meeting with Zelenskyy, Putin and Trump.

"This should be the final point, not the negotiations themselves," Putin said after the Victory Day, which marks Russia’s victory over Nazi Germany in 1945 in World War II.

Sputnik/Reuters

Also on Saturday, António Costa, the president of the European Council, said to a press conference the EU will only talk to Putin at the "right moment". Costa ultimately sees "potential" for direct EU engagement with Putin

"We need in the right moment to have talks with Russia to address our common issues with security," the EU president had said.

"We don’t want to disturb the initiative led by President Trump," said Costa at a ‘Europe Day’ celebration in Brussels. He also spoke of preparations aimed at being "ready to do what we need to do” regarding Europe’s security.

And separately an EU official said: "There will be a moment when the EU will need to speak to Russia because it’s an existential issue for Europe. Now it’s not the time."

President Trump has recently blasted NATO as a "paper tiger" (though it wasn't the first time) and has said the US is withdrawing 5,000 American troops from Germany.

In response, European governments have accelerated discussions on deeper EU military coordination, including joint defense initiatives which bypass US protection.

Currently, the three-day Ukraine ceasefire announced and backed by President Trump appears to have held throughout the weekend, as no drone attacks have been registered on Moscow or other parts of the country. 

Trump had presented this as a window and opportunity to achieve a more permanent truce, and Putin is without doubt seizing on the initiative, but surely wants a final settlement in line with Kremlin aims in Ukraine.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/11/2026 - 02:45

Is The Socialist-Islamist Alliance Finally Over?

Via Remix News,

Khalid Al-Hail is a defector from the Qatari ruling establishment, the president of the Qatar National Democratic Party, and the country’s most prominent opposition spokesman. Now living in exile in the United Kingdom, he is a successful international businessman and the leading advocate for democratic reform in Qatar, known for exposing the regime’s state-backed influence operations and media manipulation abroad.

I can’t believe how petty this sounds, but I really think western socialists are frightened that the fall of the Ayatollahs will split their vote base. Why on earth else would people whose hearts bled for Palestine be back out in the streets supporting a regime which has matched the death toll of Gaza in just a few months? The clue is in the prevailing ideology of the Western intelligentsia. The signs have been visible for years.

In 2022, a socialist political network within the European Union became embroiled in the so called ‘Qatargate’ scandal, involving cash bribes to close down debate about Qatar’s Human Rights abuses.

As Qatar’s democratic opposition in political exile, I was encouraged by a recent campaign to call the European Union’s attention to this and other abuses of Qatar’s governance in the West. Billboards decried the Al Jazeera Propaganda network, the human rights violations of Qatar’s indentured foreign workforce and Qatar’s constant support for proscribed terrorist organisations including the Taliban, Hamas and Al Qaeda – all of which has been going on for decades.

This is a message to the West and to my European friends!

The Al Thanis, Qatar's ruling family, are funding terrorism, subverting and corrupting the West, promoting Islamist propaganda, and committing human right abuses.

Help me free my beautiful country of these terrorists! 🇶🇦 pic.twitter.com/T2hF78zrsA

— خالد الهيل KHALID AL-HAIL (@Khalidalhail) May 8, 2026

But the synergy between borderless, European socialism and Qatar’s radical Wahhabi Islamism runs deep.

The reason left liberals stand shoulder to shoulder with Islamist causes is that both ideologies create the same problems for themselves, which can be explained away with the same PR.

Both respect ideology more than nationhood, so they naturally collaborate to attack any society with a strong cultural identity. Both share a Tabula Rasa concept of humanity, resenting freedom of the individuals to express Petit Bourgeoisie or Haram political values. Both interpret justice through the lens of doctrine and revelation, so neither can accept equality under the law. Both are therefore incapable of building or sustaining societal contracts and wealth. Both are in denial about that fact and cover their failures by taking what free societies have built and pretending that they created it themselves. Finally, they both have to silence anybody who exposes the obvious failures of their ideologies. The natural enemy of both is the individualist, independent, thinker who does not wish the state to interfere with his life.

What is unusual about Qatar is that it has a lot of money (I shall avoid saying ‘wealth’ – their resource of natural gas was handed to them by the British along with their state in 1971) so, unlike other Islamist regimes, they can buy strategic influence in the West. I’m not just talking about celebrities and broadcasters like Tucker Carlson. Qatar, a radical Wahhabi State and among the most extreme Islamist societies on Earth, sees that socialist political movements are equipped with idealistic students, newspapers and think tanks – so they have become a generous benefactors of universities, media networks and think tanks – their proteges forming a united front against Israel. 

Qatar also backs terrorist groups, colludes with the Muslim Brotherhood and houses Hamas operatives in Doha while securing exclusive reportage rights for Al Jazeera from the Gaza Strip. Al Jazeera’s Arabic language channel, which meets all the criteria under which RIA Novosti and Russia Today are banned, enjoys the same immunity in the EU as it appears to in the USA. That’s what expensive lobbying can do in democratic societies.

Recent events, however, threaten to break this uneasy Islamist-socialist alliance.

The 1979 revolution in Iran marked the first and only time an ancient, civilised and educated, country was totally subverted by radical Islam. When the Ayatollahs fall and the whole story of the long dark decades which followed is told in the West, it will strike a shattering blow to the marriage of convenience between the liberal left and Islamism.

I suspect that some more cynical Western political actors always knew this day was coming but just kept hoping that it wouldn’t arrive on their watch. Some are determined to ride the alliance into the ground and are now mobilising in full support of the Iranian Islamic regime which has killed tens of thousands of its own citizens in the last few months.

Spotted among a recent pro-Iranian regime march in London were Jeremy Corbyn – the former leader of the UK Labour Party – and Mothin Ali, the deputy leader of the Greens. Meanwhile Zohran Mamdani, the Mayor of New York who appealed to Brooklyn LGBTQ liberals on a pro Palestine platform, has also expressed his disgust at the shaking of the Ayatollahs – as has the Spanish PM Pedro Sánchez who recently naturalised 800,000 illegals. When people complained that the foreigners bring crime to Spain, the far-left Más Madrid spokeswoman Tesh Sidi breezily retorted that they are no longer foreigners but now Spaniards.

Would these figures of the radical left ever apply their own logic to the new arrivals in Israel in 1947? No – obviously they couldn’t – which is to say that the union between those who are all giving of the shared Western inheritance and those who are all taking for Political Islam is now openly inconsistent with its own values.

The shaking of the Ayatollahs in Tehran will be an informative moment in the history of Western self-determination as well as Iran’s. As we saw with East European Communism, as we will see in Gender theory and much of the Net-Zero green agenda, an ideology truly collapses not because of its military defeat or political sabotage but because of its inability to justify its own excesses any further. A recent comment made by Qatar’s ex Prime Minister makes me realise how desperate the game is getting to keep the radical left and Islamists together.

‘As soon as we declare war on Iran, America will withdraw from the conflict, sell weapons to both sides and use our resources to defeat both sides and expand the Greater Israel Project.’

This level of paranoid insanity will always appeal to a few lunatics – but is surely too much, even for the socialist Eurocrats, academics and journalists who take Qatari cash bribes.

Read more here...

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/11/2026 - 02:00

Rabobank: "More War Seems Inevitable"

By Michael Every of Rabobank

Summit... then 'summit' worse?

“TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE,” was President Trump’s response to Iran’s belated reply to his peace proposal, which they have rejected as a “surrender.” Tehran thinks the US must do so instead: rather than handing over enriched uranium, pledging to never build a nuke, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and dropping ballistic missiles and support for regional terror proxies, Iran wants a permanent US retreat, reparations paid to it, and control of Hormuz.

More war, where the US takes control of the Strait and/or bombs the regime harder to encourage it to sign a deal, seems inevitable if one rules out a 1956-style retreat. Indeed, Israeli PM Netanyahu gave a TV interview to 60 Minutes where he stated the Iran war, while having achieved a lot, is “not over.” Markets are not going to enjoy the prospect of greater and longer disruption to global energy supplies.

However, new fighting may not be seen until the weekend. First, “because markets.” Second, as the US still doesn’t have everything in place it needs militarily to strike harder and for longer. Third, because over May 13-15, Trump will meet Xi in Beijing, where the focus will be on Iran as well as broader US-China relations.

As postulated since the early days of this war, its resolution may run through Beijing. China, like Russia, has influence on Iran via supplies of key military goods. In that regard, some see Trump going to China with Xi holding all the cards (because Iran holds a Strait.) Yet others think a sustained war that pushes global energy markets and the economy past a terrible tipping point might see Beijing offer to lean on Iran rather than supporting it like Russia vs Ukraine.

Naturally, that opens up chatter of a potential ‘Grand Bargain’ around the core interests of China, the US, and Russia (where President Putin presided over a deflated Victory Day parade and said the war with Ukraine may “be coming to an end.”) If you aren’t at this week’s table, you might be on it. In short, the focus should be on this summit and whether it leads to ‘summit’ better or worse for you.

Equally naturally, political dramas around the world mirror those in geopolitics.

Following a local election drubbing and the collapse of two-party politics, the ruling UK Labour Party will see a stalking-horse leadership contest against deeply unpopular PM Starmer. His potential rivals Streeting (in the cabinet), Miliband (in the cabinet and a former unpopular Labour leader himself), Rayner (not in the cabinet due to a tax scandal), and Burns (not in Parliament due to Starmer’s team) must decide if they will make their moves. Starmer is determined to cling on and will give a major speech today seen as determinative for who joins the fray. Financial markets will be worried about populist left policy direction under new leadership, where Labour is losing voters just as fast at it is to the populist right.

In Australia, the by-election in Farrer saw a seat formerly held by the Liberal Party leader taken by the populist right One Nation and the door opened to it joining the Liberal-National opposition coalition, reshaping Australian politics. This is ahead of a Labor Party budget tomorrow already seeing a populist left shift via cash handouts (when inflation is nearly 5%), and taxation of residential property and other assets.

Denmark’s Liberal leader has taken over coalition talks after the Social Democrat premier failed to secure a parliamentary majority. There appear few stable political combos on offer, and questions swirl as to whether the inclusion of the far right will be necessary to achieve one.

Germany’s far right AfD is at 28% in national polls, the most popular party, and 41% in an eastern state where an election will be held in September: add the far left, and populism is >50% of the electorate. There appear few stable German political coalitions that exclude the AfD.

In all these cases, as in the US, the market-friendly center is failing to hold and extremes on the left and right, and via sectarianism, are benefitting most.  

Meanwhile, a revolution may be taking place in the geoeconomic sphere. The CLARITY Act working its way through the US Congress as companion to the GENIUS Act that cements stablecoins into the financial system has disallowed USD stablecoins from paying interest; however, it allows the payment of scaled rewards and fees that are their functional equivalent when used in transactions. That might prove pivotal for these much-misunderstood new assets designed to steamroller the global Eurodollar financial architecture.

China is officially banning anything other than its official e-CNY, a CBDC, though Hong Kong is floated as a potential location that could perhaps issue Chinese versions of onshore mainland debt-backed stablecoins similar to those of the US. That could, in theory, propose an alternative payments infrastructure that isn’t hampered by China’s capital controls.

By contrast, the ECB has just stated stablecoins are not an efficient way to strengthen the international role of the euro vs. deeper capital market integration and a stronger safe asset base. That means its alternative to the USD is an EUR that looks more like it, which implies the matching ‘benefits’ of trade deficits, debt, and financialisation over net exports and the industrial production needed for remilitarisation – as the US tries to pivot hard the other way.

Indeed, the US is not only pushing for a $500bn increase in the Pentagon budget but seeing a shake-up of how it operates: bureaucrats will no longer negotiate defence contracts, with an elite private sector “Deal Team Six” to handle and approve negotiations; defence firms will have to build their own factories; those that fail to deliver goods will be held responsible and may be replaced with new contractors; and there will be no more ‘costs-plus’ overspending. “Despite paying companies to make weapons faster, scheduled delays were constant, and cost overruns were the norm, all while their CEOs got rich,” according to Secretary of War Hegseth.

“Because markets,” said shareholders. But perhaps no more. That’s summit else to chew on.

Tyler Durden Sun, 05/10/2026 - 23:37

America's 250th: Here's Where Celebrations Are Taking Place

Authored by Savannah Halsey Pointer via The Epoch Times,

Celebrations across the United States are expected in the coming months as Americans mark the 250th anniversary of the nation’s founding.

Americans can find parties, fireworks, sporting events, and opportunities to learn about history in various locations. The events are being hosted by individual states and the federal government, which established a task force for celebrations this year.

Days after his inauguration, President Donald Trump signed an executive order “to provide a grand celebration worthy of the momentous occasion of the 250th anniversary of American Independence on July 4, 2026.”

That order established the Salute to America 250 Task Force, or “Task Force 250,” for “engaging all levels of government, the private sector, non-profit and educational institutions, and every citizen across the country to celebrate this historic milestone.”

Washington

Many events have been planned in the nation’s capital for the lead-up to the anniversary on July 4—the date the Second Continental Congress approved the Declaration of Independence, which announced the 13 American colonies’ intent to separate from the British monarchy.

Events kicked off on Dec. 31 2025, with videos projected on the Washington Monument to detail the nation’s history—from its discovery as the “New World” to the present day. That ran through Jan. 5 of this year.

On May 17, the National Mall will host a National Prayer event with worship, testimonies, and music. “Streamed to parishes, the event is amplified through coordinated media and a lead-up series with pastors and partners highlighting the Church’s role in history and civic life,” the White House said.

On Memorial Day, May 25, there will be a Spirit of America Parade, honoring service members and their sacrifice.

The White House will also host an Ultimate Fighting Championship event called UFC Freedom 250. That’s scheduled to take place on June 14 on the South Lawn of the White House and feature an “unprecedented mixed martial arts event.” Confirmed fights include Alex Pereira versus Ciryl Gane for the interim UFC heavyweight title, and Ilia Topuria versus Justin Gaethje for the lightweight title.

The Washington Monument is illuminated with a projection of President Donald Trump's "Freedom 250" initiative during the New Year's Eve show at the National Mall in Washington on Dec. 31, 2025. Amid FARAHI/AFP via Getty Images

On July 3, the Official Countdown 250 Ball will take place at the Washington Hilton, about three blocks from the Mall. The black tie event will launch America’s 250th anniversary weekend.

The ball will feature six party zones, four live entertainment stages, premium open bars, the All-American Hero Lifetime Achievement Awards, and a signature midnight countdown to the moment America enters its 250th year.

Starting on June 25 and running through July 10 of this year, a large-scale celebration at the National Mall will feature pavilions for every state and territory, as well as themed exhibits to highlight topics such as arts, innovation, faith, and agriculture in the United States.

The fair will include live performances and traditional fair attractions, as well as interactive exhibits.

More than a million Americans are expected to head to the nation’s capital on July 4 for what the White House calls “one of the grandest displays of patriotism that the world has ever seen.”

The day will feature remarks from Trump and a fireworks display, which the White House is advertising as “the largest pyrotechnics display in the history of the world.” It will also include musical performances and ceremonies honoring both service members and everyday Americans.

North Dakota

In North Dakota, a new presidential library is slated to open in Medora on July 1. The library will feature exhibits on former President Theodore Roosevelt’s life and legacy, as well as galleries and interactive displays.

New York

On July 4, New York Harbor will host Sail 4th 250, an international event of tall ships and naval vessels from more than 30 nations. This event will include parades, performances, and public programming.

It will also include a naval review, showcasing U.S. ships’ power and capabilities.

Pennsylvania

The state of Pennsylvania has positioned itself as a centerpiece of the anniversary in materials about the city’s events, due to Philadelphia’s role in the founding.

The city is considered the birthplace of American independence, because the signing of the Declaration of Independence took place at Independence Hall on July 4, 1776. Additionally, Philadelphia served as the nation’s capital for portions of the Revolutionary era.

According to the city website, “Philly goes bigger than ever in 2026,” touting the largest Independence Day celebration in the nation, which will close out 16 days of festivities with a giant, free-to-attend event on the Benjamin Franklin Parkway. The city expects thousands to head to the City Center for the family-friendly event.

Freedom 250’s Timothy Crawford (L) and Nick Bravo (R ) brought their mobile museum “Freedom Truck” to Florida Atlantic University in Boca Raton, Florida, on Feb. 23, 2026. Jacob Burg/The Epoch Times

Post-July Events

Throughout 2026, the White House’s Freedom 250 initiative has six mobile museums housed in double-wide tractor-trailers crossing the nation.

The “Freedom Trucks” will travel across all 48 contiguous states with their exhibits, visiting schools, parks, and community events. The goal is to reach millions with the interactive displays on American independence and notable figures from U.S. history.

On Aug. 22–23, Washington will play host to the Freedom 250 Grand Prix, which will be the first Indycar race on a street circuit around the National Mall. The White House called the event a “historic moment in American motorsport, designed specifically to celebrate the 250th anniversary.”

The track map of the upcoming Freedom 250 Grand Prix, in Washington on March 9, 2026. Featuring a 1.7 mile course with seven turns on the National Mall, the Aug. 23 event will celebrate America's 250th birthday. Madalina Kilroy/The Epoch Times

In the fall of 2026, the Freedom 250 initiative will launch the Patriot Games—a national competition for high school athletes from every state and territory. The event will pair mentors and students to compete for a $250,000 prize to be split between one male and one female winner.

Tyler Durden Sun, 05/10/2026 - 23:20