Zero Rss

Tracking The Caribbean Super Yacht Migration

The superyacht season across the Caribbean and the Gulf of America has shifted into the off-season, with hurricane season now roughly a month in. As tropical activity risks rise across the Atlantic basin, some owners and charter fleets have shifted pleasure yachts and sailboats toward the Mediterranean, where the summer season is now in full swing. 

Ship-tracking and maritime intelligence platform MarineTraffic tracked the great migration of superyachts, including 2,156 departures of pleasure craft and sailing vessels from top Caribbean hubs between March and June. Of these, 161 showed a clear signal for an Atlantic, European, or Mediterranean route.

Out of 2,156 pleasure craft and sailing vessel departures recorded between March and June 2026 from Barbados, Guadeloupe, Martinique, the US Virgin Islands, St Barths, Antigua, the British Virgin Islands, and St Martin / St Kitts / St Lucia, 161 movements showed a clear Atlantic, European or Mediterranean route signal.

The departure side is concentrated in a handful of familiar yachting hubs. Martinique led with 48 movements (29.8%), followed by Antigua with 37 (23.0%), Saint-Martin with 23 (14.3%), Guadeloupe with 17 (10.6%), and the U.S. Virgin Islands with 14 (8.7%). At port level, Le Marin stood out as the main starting point.

MarineTraffic described the journey to Europe as less of a direct sprint and more of a staged migration:

The journey is rarely direct. Many vessels cross the Atlantic in stages, using Bermuda and the Azores as natural waypoints before continuing toward southern Europe and the western Mediterranean. Horta is the main mid-Atlantic stop, accounting for 28 vessels, followed by St George's, Bermuda with 9, and Ponta Delgada with 3, reflecting the classic Caribbean–Azores–Europe crossing pattern. Once in European waters, vessels fan out toward key Mediterranean yachting hubs, led by Palma de Mallorca with 12 vessels, followed by smaller flows into Barcelona, Genoa, Ibiza, Monaco and Tivat.

The timing underlines the seasonal nature of the migration. May was the busiest month, accounting for 73 of the 161 movements (45.3%), ahead of April (33), June (32) and March (23). The fleet is dominated by sailing vessels, which account for 109 movements (67.7%), while pleasure craft represent 52 (32.3%). In the clearest crossing records, vessels had already travelled an average of around 2,700 nautical miles at roughly 6.6 knots, with some Caribbean-to-Palma routes extending to around 3,680 nautical miles.

The journey of pleasure craft from the Caribbean to the Mediterranean

As the Caribbean winter season gives way to the Mediterranean summer, pleasure craft begin one of the most visible seasonal repositioning patterns at sea. Using #MarineTraffic data, we can trace how these… pic.twitter.com/oQoGr1HhUp

— MarineTraffic (@MarineTraffic) July 2, 2026

The Atlantic hurricane season ends at the end of November and December is typically when superyachts begin returning to the Caribbean and Gulf of America for the holiday rush. That marks the start of the Caribbean's prime time charter window, with peak Caribbean yachting season running through April as owners and charter fleets shift back from the Mediterranean.

Tyler Durden Sun, 07/05/2026 - 19:15

No, The Framers Would Have Hated The Billionaire Tax

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

Below is my column in the Wall Street Journal on the bizarre claim of Gov. Gavin Newsom and others that the Framers would have supported wealth taxes, including the proposed Billionaire’s Tax. It is a claim that seeks to mask the economically unwise with the historically unfounded. The Framers sought to protect property from legislative redistributive impulses. James Madison wrote that the bicameral system, and particularly the Senate, “ought to be so constituted as to protect the minority of the opulent against the majority.” That does not sound like an ally of Bernie Sanders and Ro Khanna.

Was James Madison the Zohran Mamdani of his time? Gavin Newsom appears to think so. In joining the growing number of Democratic leaders supporting a wealth tax, the California governor claimed that the U.S. Constitution and our Founders were all about wealth distribution: “The system America’s founders built,” he said, “was designed to prevent the concentration of power in a few hands, but we have allowed that concentration to happen anyway, slowly, in plain sight, over decades.”

The only problem with this argument is that it is utterly and demonstrably false. The Madisonian democracy is designed to avoid the concentration of political power, not the concentration of wealth.

The Founders were great believers in capitalism and the free market. In my recent book, “Rage and the Republic,” I discuss the economic philosophy of the Founders in exploring the history and future of this unique republic. This isn’t simply the 250th anniversary of the Declaration of Independence but also the anniversary of the publication of Adam Smith’s “The Wealth of Nations,” which the Founders embraced.

Many of the Founders were themselves quite wealthy, including banker Robert Morris Jr., who was known as the “Financier of the Revolution” and would be a billionaire today.

Our revolution was the first true Enlightenment revolution, heavily influenced by writers such as John Locke, who believed in a natural right to property. That right came not from the government, but from God, and “excludes the common right of other Men.”

That Lockean principle was manifest in George Mason’s Virginia Declaration of Rights, which was a basis for the Declaration of Independence. It extolled “the enjoyment of life and liberty, with the means of acquiring and possessing property, and pursuing and obtaining happiness and safety.”

James Madison drafted protections from government seizure of property, including the Takings Clause of the Fifth Amendment, which requires compensation for any property taken by the government.

The Constitution not only protects property, but was later amended to allow for income taxes rather than wealth taxes.

Far from supporting a wealth tax, the constitutional system referenced by Mr. Newsom makes a federal wealth tax unconstitutional.

Mr. Newsom’s recent endorsement of a national wealth tax was likely meant to blunt the outrage over his opposition to the resolution to create a state Billionaires’ Tax on the coming November ballot.

California has reportedly lost trillions of dollars in the exodus of billionaires and other wealthy taxpayers fleeing the high taxes and class politics of the state. Mr. Newsom knows that this draining of wealth spells doom for his state, which is already grappling with a massive, growing deficit. He offered a curious argument for opposing the state wealth tax: “You may not be able to pick up and move to Texas or Florida to shelter your income from taxation, but I promise you that billionaires can, and do.”

The argument suggested that most citizens are effectively a captive population to be culled by California leaders, dupes who are unable to escape a state with a deadly combination of some of the highest taxes and highest living costs in the nation.

Unions and others pushed the Billionaire Tax to avoid budget cuts and fund the state’s runaway expenditures, from pension funds to projects such as the infamous high-speed train to nowhere.

To deal with California’s reverse Gold Rush, drafters made the proposed Billionaire Tax retroactive to claw back money from those who have escaped.

The national Billionaire Tax pushed by Sens. Bernie Sanders (I., Vt.) and Elizabeth Warren (D., Mass.) seeks to cut off any escape for the wealthy short of leaving the country. When she ran for president, Ms. Warren warned the wealthy that she was coming for “your Rembrandts, your stock portfolio, your diamonds and your yachts.”

Of course, this assumes that the wealthy would be little more than passive prey in a hunt by the Internal Revenue Service. That is precisely what socialists thought in France decades ago, before an exodus from the country that, along with other socialist policies, brought it to near economic ruin. It was later rescinded.

Nevertheless, wealth taxes make for great politics. What is concerning is that, in addition to a wealth tax, Democratic leaders like Ms. Warren are pledging to pack the Supreme Court if they retake power. A packed court with an insistent liberal majority would let the Democrats push through measures that would otherwise be declared unconstitutional, including a wealth tax.

Congress could then gradually lower the level of wealth needed to trigger the tax, opening up the homes and estates of citizens as an untapped reservoir of money for the taking.

“You’re next” could then apply not just to office holders but to property owners in a push to redistribute wealth.

That strategy may well unfold in coming years, but it will be the realization of a Mamdanian, not a Madisonian, system.

Mr. Turley is a law professor at George Washington University and author of “Rage and the Republic: The Unfinished Story of the American Revolution.”

Tyler Durden Sun, 07/05/2026 - 18:40

'Thought People Hated Him': Trump Surprised Iranians Are Crying At Khamenei's Funeral Amid Massive Turnout

President Trump this weekend mused in an interview with Axios that so many people and officials are currently gathered for Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's funeral in Tehran that they could all be taken out in one fell swoop.

"They are all there. One shot [and we can take them all out], but we are not going to do that because then we would have nobody to negotiate with," Trump said.

AFP via Getty Images

He again emphasized that the Iranians "are begging to make a deal" but said both sides decided to take a week off from the conflict as well as talks to give time for Khamenei's funeral events to end. There are major public events scheduled to go for up to a week.

Trump acknowledged that neither side will shoot at the other as the funeral procession and multi-city observances continued. Predictions in international press accounts have said events are expected to attract some 30 million mourners.

The first and second days of public funeral ceremonies in Tehran attracted millions of people, after Friday saw top representatives from at least 70 foreign governments pay last respects.

Amid the scenes of public mourning, and also with some Iranian officials loudly calling for 'revenge' - Trump made this interesting comment to Axios:

He added that he was surprised to see some Iranians crying at the funeral, saying he thought people hated Khamenei. "Maybe it's fake tears," Trump mused.

Footage and images of massive crowds of people packing out central Tehran squares and roads have flooded social media over the weekend. External critics and enemies of Iran have been claiming that millions of people were 'forced' by Iran's security services to attend the funeral.

⭕️🇺🇸 President Trump told Axios U.S.-Iran negotiations are paused until the funeral ceremonies for the late Iranian Supreme Leader conclude on July 9, saying both sides agreed to “take a week off” and that “neither side will shoot at the other” during that time.

Referring to… pic.twitter.com/MqabN3ojTJ

— Drop Site (@DropSiteNews) July 4, 2026

Al Jazeera's correspondent in Iran has described the following in a Sunday report:

Thousands and thousands of people are streaming through to pay their respects on the second day of the public farewell ceremony for the Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

We know that tomorrow, in the capital of Tehran, there will be a funeral procession, and we are expecting millions of people to attend.

Also on the schedule, the bodies of Khamenei and his slain family members are also going to be taken to the holy cities of Karbala and Najaf in Iraq.

Khamenei and his family members are later to be buried in the city of Mashhad, which is his birthplace. His surviving son, Mojtaba Khamenei - the current supreme leader - is still in hiding and has yet been seen at the funeral.

Reports say the Iranians are fearful that US and Israeli intelligence, or their potential spy assets on the ground, could track Mojtaba's movements if he were to make public appearance at his father's funeral.

🇮🇷 Aerial images are emerging of massive crowds of Iranians gathered for Ali Khamenei's funeral.

After today's ceremonies, the body will be moved to Qom on Tuesday and then to Iraq for further religious processions around holy sites and shrines before finally being buried on… https://t.co/bV5WNMm365 pic.twitter.com/FkDkKQM5Tj

— Mario Nawfal (@MarioNawfal) July 5, 2026

As for Trump expressing 'surprise' that millions of Iranians would mourn the late Khamenei, this seems but the latest admissions (in a long familiar pattern) of Washington getting pretty much every key assumption wrong about Middle East states and cultures it seeks to do regime change it. 

This also hearkens back to US claims in Iraq that they "would greet us as liberators"... the same sentiment was at times expressed just ahead of the Feb. 28 US-Israeli attack on Iran. But a mass uprising strong enough to topple the government never materialized - though the US and Israel tried to encourage this.

Tyler Durden Sun, 07/05/2026 - 18:05

'Great Injustice Reversed': Belgian Soccer Furious As FIFA Allows Suspended US Star To Play

Just after 2:00 p.m. (ET) today, President Trump published the following statement on Truth Social:

What is he talking about? What is the "great injustice"?

As Noel S. Williams explains via American Thinker, he's referring to the moment during the U.S. vs. Bosnia & Herzegovina World Cup match when the referee issued a bizarre, unwarranted red card to star striker Folarin Balogun.

Initially, that made him ineligible to play in the crucial last-16 match against Belgium on Monday. Great or not, there was an injustice - I just hope Karma and those mercurial soccer gods agree in the coming days.

It's clear that Balogun didn't deliberately stamp on the B&H defender's ankle.

I just wonder, now that FIFA has bent over backward to re-institute his eligibility to play against Belgium, if that will dull the U.S. team's cutting edge. Sometimes, when a team feels "hard done by," it solidifies their sanctimonious indignation, giving them more power.

Our team is already pulling together, but the "great injustice" added more "all for one, and one for all" spirit.

Given President Trump's post, the spotlight has just intensified on an individual player.

Additionally, the media is piling on, increasing performance expectations upon a person they describe as our best striker (with some creative player repositioning, Christian Pulisic could be deployed as a striker). Plus, there are other options. We have brilliant players all over the field, actually.

LOL!!! “Nah bro I have the Trump card, I win.”

Trump card always wins! pic.twitter.com/gGTlmDm0wH

— Gunther Eagleman™ (@GuntherEagleman) July 5, 2026

In a statement, the US Soccer Federation said:

WE ACCEPT THE DECISION OF THE DISCIPLINARY COMMITTEE AND ARE PLEASED THAT FOLARIN BALOGUN IS ELIGIBLE TO COMPETE TOMORROW.

OUR FULL ATTENTION IS FOCUSED ON THE ROUND OF 16 MATCH AGAINST BELGIUM IN SEATTLE, AND WE LOOK FORWARD TO THE CONTINUED SUPPORT OF OUR AMAZING FANS.

Understandably, the Belgian Soccer Federation is furious:

"The Royal Belgian Football Association (RBFA) is astonished by FIFA's decision to declare suspended United States player Folarin Balogun eligible to play in the USA–Belgium match on Monday, 6 July at 5:00 p.m. (Seattle time).

FIFA bases its decision on Article 27 of the FIFA Disciplinary Code.

...

❗️In order to safeguard the legitimate rights of all participating teams and to protect the fundamental principles of fair play in our sport, both at this FIFA World Cup and at future editions of the tournament, the RBFA is investigating all potential options."

With the Belgian coach exclaiming: "I did not know that July 4th was April Fools day..."

pic.twitter.com/fpY45ODoFr

💣🗣️ Journalist:

“What is your reaction to the possibility of Folarin Balogun playing against you tomorrow?”

🎥 Rudi Garcia, visibly furious: 😱🔥

“As I told your colleague earlier during the one-on-one interviews, I didn’t know that at the World Cup,…

— Pitch Wire (@wire_pitch) July 5, 2026

US odds improved after the suspension was lifted...

Go USA!

But before that, Go England!!

Tyler Durden Sun, 07/05/2026 - 17:30

OPEC+ Approves Another Oil Output Increase As Hormuz Exports Start To Recover

OPEC+ agreed a further increase in output targets from August, the group said in a statement on Sunday, ‌adding to global supply at a time when oil prices are falling due to the gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz for oil exports. 

Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman adjust production and reaffirm commitment to market stability

Read Press Release▶️https://t.co/dyMd6A6Fpj

— OPEC (@OPECSecretariat) July 5, 2026

The oil-producing cartel, which recently lost the UAE as a core member, agreed during an online meeting to increase quotas by 188,000 barrels per day from August, on top of similar increases for June and July. That said, the producers reserved the right to increase, pause, or reverse the phase-out, including the November 2023 cuts already unwound. Furthermore, every country that overproduced since January 2024 still has to fully compensate for it, tracked monthly by the JMMC. 

The seven ​core members of OPEC+, which groups OPEC and allied producers including Russia, have hiked their output quotas from April through July ​by almost 800,000 bpd. Yet the increase has remained largely on paper because of the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran, ⁠which closed the Strait of Hormuz to tanker traffic for some of the most important OPEC+ members, including Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and ​Iraq.

According to Reuters, OPEC+ output fell to 33.13 million bpd in May, according to OPEC data, from 42.77 million bpd in February. It began ​to recover in June thanks to U.S. efforts to help the UAE and other OPEC+ nations export more oil, but is still below pre-war levels.

Despite persisting supply disruptions, oil prices have returned to pre-war levels, pressured by sharply lower Chinese imports, higher exports from non-Middle East producers, and a record global strategic stock release coordinated ​by the International Energy Agency.

"The group of seven kept unwinding their production cuts as widely expected," UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said. "The near-term focus ​will remain on how many tankers will manage to cross the Strait of Hormuz and how quickly demand and Chinese crude imports recover."

A memorandum of understanding ‌between Washington ⁠and Tehran to end the war, which has been breached on several occasions but is still holding, has also helped convince traders that supply will ultimately return to normal levels.

Brent crude prices traded near $72 per barrel on Friday, down from recent peaks of more than $120 per barrel and back to levels traded just before the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran on February 28.

Besides agreeing production targets, OPEC+ is also facing other challenges after the United Arab Emirates left ​the group and Iraq signaled it wants ​higher quotas.

OPEC+ includes 21 members ⁠including Iran, but in recent years only the seven nations - and the UAE until its departure - have been involved in monthly production management. Those seven producers, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan and Oman, are ​boosting output as part of the phased rollback of a 1.65 million bpd supply cut agreed ​in 2023, when ⁠the group still included the UAE.

In a stunning twist, the UAE quit the alliance in late April because it wanted to align its capacity more closely with its production, free of production restraints imposed by the group. From August, taking into account the UAE's exit from May 1, the seven core members will still ⁠have about ​379,000 bpd of the original cut to return to the market, according to ​Reuters calculations.

With the August increase now decided, they will have fully unwound the 2023 cut if they make one more hike of around the same size for September at ​their next meeting on August 2.

Tyler Durden Sun, 07/05/2026 - 16:55

The Biggest Problem With AI Today

By Christopher Penn, of Almost Timely News

What’s the biggest problem in AI today? Is it cost, with token budgets being blown out of the water by agentic AI? Is it sustainability, with AI consuming electricity and fresh water? Is it ethics, with tech companies cramming AI into everything?

I think it’s deeper than that. Those are all symptoms of a much deeper-rooted problem: nobody’s making decisions.

Or more correctly, we’ve abdicated far too much of our executive function to AI. We’ve surrendered our thinking. 

Let’s dig in.

Part 1: Where This Issue Came From

On Friday afternoon, I was mulling over what I wanted to cover in this week’s issue. It’s a holiday weekend here in the USA, so not as many folks will be reading, and that’s okay. (I appreciate that YOU are) And I’ve covered a ton recently:

• How to improve advertising with AI
• Why listicles may cause more harm than good
• Setting up private, local models
• How AI detection works
• AI for GEO mental models
• AI for retail GEO
• 18 ways to save token budgets
• How to make AI write better

So on a whim, I set up a NotebookLM with the last 180 days of conversations from over 40 different subreddits, like r/marketing, r/chatgpt, etc. - everything around marketing, business, and AI. I connected it to Claude Code with the NotebookLM command line tool (the most token—efficient way for Claude to talk to NotebookLM), and then put all of my 2026 newsletters year to date into an input folder.

I asked Claude to compare what I’ve written about thus far this year with what folks are finding their hardest problems are with AI. Claude spit out a list of 10 major things derived from over 800,000 words of foaming at the mouth on Reddit that it thought might be good newsletter topics:

• AI Visibility challenges
• Agentic oversight is degrading
• AI deployment is broken
• 40-60% of company budget is wasted on the wrong models
• AI is a rental
• AI sycophancy is screwing up synthetic focus groups
• AI detectors don’t work
• AI is hollowing out corporations and no one’s hiring junior staff
• People measure AI by tokenmaxxing
• Marketers are basically unpaid labor for AI companies training data

Claude was REALLY pushing for me to write about how measurement is broken in marketing and AI today, and I might do that at some point, but that’s not what I see when I look at this laundry list. Yes, there are measurement issues in many of them, data issues in many of them, but... measurement being broken is the symptom of what I said earlier - we’ve abdicated executive function.

For those who aren’t analytics nerds, you know that measurement is a trailing indicator. It’s not a leading indicator.

Part 2: Executive Function Recap

As a reminder, I bucket executive function into four categories that I call PODS:

• Plan: you think about achieving something in the future and make a plan to get there from here
• Organize: you take what you have and try to make sense of it
• Decide: you take what you have and make decisions about it
• Solve: you solve the problems you have

Yes, there is more nuance to executive function than this, but this handy, short list is an easy way to see what our brains are doing. That’s critical thinking, one of the worst-named practices we have.

Why? Because critical thinking isn’t about being critical, per se. It’s about metacognition - the definition of which is thinking about thinking. When you’re thinking about how you think, you open the door to improvements, to growth.

Thinking about thinking means asking questions and reflecting - is this the best way to do something? How could I do this better? How could I derive more enjoyment from this thing I’m doing? It’s not criticizing yourself as much as it is recognizing what you’re doing and whether it’s working or not.

When you’re planning, organizing, deciding, and solving, you’re inherently thinking about thinking. Every time you plan, every time you bring order to chaos, you have to check in with your own brain to see if what you’re doing is moving you closer to the goal posts.

Executive function is one of the things that defines our sentience as living creatures. Every sentient creature from a mouse to us does these tasks. You’ve read or heard stories about crows fashioning tools from wire to solve problems, you’ve watched dogs and cats make decisions and plan. I’ve watched my own cat measure optically whether or not she can make a particular jump.

Properly prompted, today’s AI tools are superb at executive functions as well. Given the right frameworks, harnesses, and data, they can plan, organize, decide, and solve better than we can at most language-based tasks.

And therein lies the actual problem.

Part 3: The Tale of the Tape

Let’s look at each of the 10 topics Claude suggested to see the threads that connect them.

AI Visibility challenges: when you read the verbatims of what people are saying about AI visibility measurement, you can tell they’re pretty much making it up. This is especially true of software vendors that are offering and peddling solutions that have very little grounding in reality - and yet, stakeholders eat this stuff up because they’d rather have certainty about a wrong number than accept uncertainty or no number at all. they are not thinking about their thinking.

Agentic oversight is degrading: the commenters on Reddit focused on the fact that as agents get more sophisticated, it’s harder and harder to follow along to see what they’re doing. So we just hit OK all the time - if we’re even thinking about a human in the loop. We’ve forfeit our authority here. In fact, some AI tools have this built in as a feature. Claude calls it dangerously skip permissions. Qwen calls it YOLO mode.

AI deployment is broken: here, the discussion is about stakeholders telling their stakeholders that the organization has deployed AI without any sense of the impact that it’s had. One poster cited a statistic that 29% of companies see significant ROI from AI, even though individual employees are claiming 5x productivity increases. The math doesn’t math. Here, people don’t want to think and reflect about what deployment even means. Katie’s been writing a lot about this in the Trust Insights newsletter the last few weeks. At its heart, we are confusing using AI with getting results out of AI.

40-60% of budget is wasted: here, folks are talking about how everyone just accepts the default model in AI tools, which is typically the most expensive one. Claude, for example, defaults to Opus 4.8, which is a much more expensive model than Sonnet 5 or Haiku 4.5. We’re not thinking. We’re not making decisions about cost trade-offs versus effectiveness. Another person pointed out that this is by design to create habits. It’s about habit formation for the most expensive models so that when the subsidization of today’s AI ends, we are accustomed to using the most expensive models. This is brain hijacking in a way.

AI is a rental: in this particular topic, the discussion centers around what you actually own in AI, which is very little if you are using today’s closed weights frontier models. Particularly Anthropic’s on-again, off-again rollout of Fable 5, thanks to U.S. export controls, was a wake-up call to the entire industry that you don’t own anything in SaaS, any more than you own music in Spotify or own videos in Netflix - but people think they do.

Sycophancy in focus groups: even though we have good academic research showing that properly prompted AI models can emulate human purchase intent with about 90% accuracy, the level of sycophancy in AI models steers them towards confirmation bias in most situations. This is especially true of synthetic focus groups; when people use AI to simulate consumer intent, what they’re really doing is reinforcing their own biases most of the time. There’s no reflection or questioning the AI output.

AI detectors don’t work: A perpetual favorite topic of mine. This thread of conversation revolved around how companies are using AI detectors to identify the use of AI in situations where it’s not appropriate, without recognizing that the detectors themselves are also broken. In testing I did 3 weeks ago now, AI detectors falsely flagged human outputs 1 out of 7 times. No one is thinking and reflecting enough about who’s watching the watchers.

AI is hollowing out companies: I really liked this quote from the agency owners subreddit:

“What’s strange is nobody decided this. There was no meeting where we discussed this. We automated one annoying task, then another, and one day the job had hollowed out from the inside.“

This erosion of tasks is all about a lack of cognition, a lack of reflection, a lack of a plan. No one’s making decisions - just leaving it up to the machines, a bit more each day.

Tokenmaxxing: this was reflecting on Meta’s most recent news story in which they were on track to spend several billion dollars in AI tokens because they measured AI productivity based on token spend, the dumbest possible way to measure AI.

Marketers as unpaid trainers: this was a whole bunch of ranting about how marketers are effectively unpaid trainers for AI platforms. The more content we produce, the more AI has to train on while simultaneously competing for the tasks we’re paid to do. Here, the thread was about how the average marketer isn’t thinking or reflecting about their relationship to AI.

And this laundry list of 10 items isn’t everything, not by a long shot. Think about how else people use AI without thinking, without thinking about their thinking. Go on LinkedIn and look at the endless streams of comment-bots all paraphrasing the same template over and over again. Look at the workslop flooding your inbox, read the reports your agencies send you that are clearly copy paste jobs.

When we put aside the direction that Claude wanted to nudge this issue of the newsletter, it becomes pretty apparent that it’s really about how much we think about thinking. How self-aware are we? How well and accurately do we perceive our relationship with AI?

Most of all, do we see the amount of executive function we’ve ceded to AI?

Part 4: The Antidote

“Nobody decided this” is haunting me. When you hand off executive functions to AI, who is making the decisions? No one. There’s no one accountable for a decision because the machine is making it for us. Whether it’s building a PowerPoint deck, assembling a report for a client, creating content for a newsletter, when the machine does it, there’s no accountability and there’s no decision making on our part other than approving it.

And this leads to a bunch of bad outcomes, everything from job loss to dissatisfaction with your own work. You know, when you use AI to offload a task, that you didn’t do the work - and you take no pride in it, any more than you’d take pride in the work that a contractor did on your behalf.

Think about this in the context of parents. Go to any parent’s house and you’ll likely see art that the kids made when they were young. The art is generally, objectively, pretty bad. But the parent values it not because of the quality of the art, but because of the level of effort made by the child. They take pride in their child’s efforts, and the child takes pride in what they did in their efforts. For good or ill, when people use AI, they themselves feel like they haven’t made an effort, and the person on the receiving end also feels like they didn’t make an effort.

Sometimes, you don’t even understand the work if you’ve outsourced it. You present it to your stakeholders, and the first question they ask that isn’t in the prepared materials leads to panic city because you can’t answer it, like buying a cake at the store instead of baking it yourself and then having someone ask if a specific allergen is in it. And you’re left scrambling, looking for the label to see what’s actually in the cake.

So my suggested antidote is this: for every task that matters, always start with someting you lead, and force the machines to educate you.

For example, when I compile monthly reports for Trust Insights clients, I turn on my voice recorder and I review the data myself. I talk out loud what I see, what I think, what makes sense and what doesn’t make sense, and then I have AI transcribe it. After the transcription is complete, I ask AI to review it and show me what I missed. I ask it to ask me questions, to record more information, to fish more information from me.

I also ask it, especially around anything in my subject matter expertise, to find me resources to learn and read about its recommendations. Recently, I was asking it to choose from a catalog I’d prepared of over 1,000 different analytical techniques, and it chose an interesting ensemble of 3 techniques, one of which I didn’t know well. So I had it teach me that, so that instead of me passively accepting its recommendations, I learned something. I got better as a professional. I grew my subject matter expertise.

If you think about it, this is not only rational from the perspective of delivering great quality work, it’s also rational from the perspective of my value. If I’m nothing more than a copy paste drone, a meat-based interface to an LLM, then why does my company need me? Why would my clients pay for me when they could just pay to ask ChatGPT or Claude the exact same things?

What they’re paying for is my expertise, my skills not only at using the technology, but the specific lens I direct it with, and the perspective that only I can bring. And if I’m using AI to constantly improve that expertise, to improve that domain knowledge, then they should keep paying for me.

Outside my subject matter expertise, I start with deep research, using AI tools to gather information and then having them create a synthesis. Once I’ve got that, then I have it create a checklist of what constitutes quality in the domain I’m working in. Finally, I sit down with the creations and I read and learn for myself. I have AI make infographics or podcast summaries to learn the domain so that I can connect it to my expertise.

Agentic AI - tools like Claude Code, OpenCode, etc. - are phenomenal researchers, far better than the web-based deep research tools folks have become accustomed to in the past couple of years. When you use a research agent, it has a lot more latitude to gather up sources, to take the time to write down notes and observations, and to synthesize conclusions from the data it has. If you use something like the Trust Insights CASINO research framework, you’ll get some amazing results from the tools that tend to have fewer hallucinations than their web-based counterparts.

Then with that research data in hand, you use it to become a better professional within your domain. You use it to level yourself up. You use it to add to your insights instead of substitute for your insights.

Part 5: Wrapping Up

The biggest problem in AI today is the delegation of our executive function to machines. Whether it’s accountability (machines have none), deskilling, or dissatisfaction with our work, the moment we forfeit executive function is the moment when AI becomes more problem than solution.

We can boil it all down to a simple set of questions:

1. Does the use of AI make the output better?

2. Does the use of AI make me better?

If the answer isn’t yes to BOTH, then you’re not using it well.

Properly used, AI is one of the greatest professional development tools ever created.

Improperly used, it’s one of the most destructive forces your career has ever known, because the moment you offload a task to AI, your own skills at that task get rusty.

And once something becomes rusty enough, it’s cheaper and easier to replace it.

More in the Almost Timely Newsletter

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Tyler Durden Sun, 07/05/2026 - 16:20

Japan Bankruptcies Surge To All-Time High As A Result Of Plunging Yen

In recent months one of the more frequent questions in FX trading has been the relentless collapse in the yen, which recently sank below a 40 year low despite rate differentials stubbornly headed in the opposite direction, and is increasingly flirting with levels which on previous occasions always prompted BOJ intervention.

Among the reasons cited for the chronic weakness of the Japanese currency have been the following three:

1. Real short-term rates in Japan are negative, which is why Ueda has been slow to hike
2. There is a growing perception that Japan's PM Takaichi doesn't want a higher rates or a stronger yen.  A weak yen certainly helps big JP firms profits (while hurting households) so there is a clear weak yen constituency inside the LDP. Japanese financial institutions are also short the yen generally
3. JP financial institutions (notably lifer insurers) see the upfront cost of hedging (the nominal ST rate differential) and have made a mint on unhedged fx assets, and they have been reluctant to change their position just because the yen looks exceptionally undervalued.

Effectively a feedback loop has emerged, whereby the weaker yen leads to an even weaker yen, and despite token resistance by the BOJ - the latest long overdue rate hike being an example - the market clearly anticipates further weakness in the currency, and is pushing it to new lows.

However, a limit to the yen's weakness is now emerging, and it goes to the growing damage on the country's households noted in point 2 above.

As Bloomberg reports, Japan’s weak currency caused the most bankruptcies for the first half of a year since 2022, underscoring the growing economic costs of the currency’s slump. 

Forty-five firms failed from January to June for that reason, up more than 30% from a year earlier, according to a report by Tokyo Shoko Research published last Wednesday. The figure was the highest since 2022, when the data firm started counting companies that specifically cite currency weakness in filing for bankruptcy.

The findings suggest the smaller firms that employ most of Japan’s workers are finding it increasingly difficult to withstand the yen’s prolonged weakness, casting a shadow over the nation’s economy, even as large-cap exporters benefit. 

The data also strengthen the case for continued interest-rate hikes from the Bank of Japan. While higher borrowing costs alone would typically push more firms toward insolvency, closing the gap with US rates could help support the yen.

The yen has steadily weakened against the dollar in recent years as US interest rates climbed to combat pandemic-era inflation while Japanese rates were negative to break free of deflation. While the rate differential has since narrowed, a rally in the dollar and high oil prices from the war in Iran are pressuring the yen.  

The yen hit a new 40 year low of 162 per dollar on Thursday, before rising higher amid some speculation that Japan's financial authorities may finally seek to rein it in. While the weaker currency has boosted exporters’ earnings, it has also driven up import costs, squeezing profit margins across a broad range of import-dependent industries, and has also helped sustain the worst inflation in Japan's recent history.  

The conflict in the Middle East has also drastically boosted costs. A price index for raw materials and merchandise purchases among a broad range of smaller firms surged in the second quarter, according to a survey by the Organization for Small & Medium Enterprises and Regional Innovation. The Bank of Japan’s producer price index has also jumped in recent months.

Tokyo Shoko Research’s report showed bankruptcies were particularly concentrated in the wholesale sector. One example was Tokyo-based Merry Time Foods, an importer of crab, shrimp and tuna from other parts of Asia. The company went bankrupt in May, citing deteriorating profitability due to the weak yen and political instability in its supplier countries.

The research firm said in the report that currency-related bankruptcies are likely to remain elevated for some time, particularly among wholesalers, retailers and manufacturers with limited pricing power.

According to Bloomberg, the strain has been acute for small- and mid-sized businesses, who are more affected by higher borrowing costs than their larger counterparts. They’re also contending with mounting wage hike pressures amid persistent labor shortages. Smaller firms often have limited ability to pass higher costs onto customers due to intense competition.

“The weak yen is one contributing factor,” said Yoshihiro Sakata, manager at Tokyo Shoko Research. “Combined with inflation and rising labor costs, it is creating a cumulative burden on businesses.”

Another source of pressure on smaller businesses may be foreign-exchange hedging, including the use of so-called reverse knockout options, according to Yuji Saito, executive adviser at SBI FXTrade. Such products are widely sold by regional banks as structured hedging products, particularly to small and regional importers seeking to minimize upfront option premiums.

Once the exchange rate reaches a preset knockout level, the option expires and the hedge ceases to provide protection. Companies needing dollars must then either purchase them in the spot market, enter into a new hedge - often at less favorable levels - or leave themselves exposed to further currency moves.

“The weaker the yen gets, the more importers roll into increasingly risky option structures,” Saito said. “Once the knockout level is breached, they are forced to buy dollars in the spot market, creating a negative spiral that puts even more downward pressure on the yen."

Analysts estimate that remaining reverse knockout levels are clustered between 163 and 170 yen per dollar, territory that many firms didn’t think the currency would reach as intervention from the central bank would likely be forthcoming due to the adverse economic impact of such unprecedented currency collapse.

“The number of knockouts could increase if the yen weakens further,” said Hiroyuki Machida, director of Japan FX and commodities sales at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group. “The situation is becoming significant for companies that are unable to pass on higher costs.”

Tyler Durden Sun, 07/05/2026 - 15:45

Russia's Buffer Zone On Ukrainian Border 'Expanding' As Result Of Worsening Drone Attacks: Kremlin

Russia has announced that one key measure that will be taken in response to Ukraine's ramped-up drone attacks on Russian territory, including last month's major strikes on the Moscow area, is the significant expansion of the border 'buffer zone' between the waring countries.

"A security buffer zone on the Russian-Ukrainian border is conditioned by the aggressive nature of the Kiev regime and the Russian military is engaged in this process systematically reaching the appropriate progress," presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Sunday.

Source: Kremlin/Reuters

In essence this is the Kremlin saying that Russian forces plan to permanently take over territory deeper into Ukraine.

"Based on the aggressive nature of the Kiev regime and in order to insure the safety of our citizens, we are setting up a security zone, or the so-called, buffer zone," Peskov continued. "This buffer zone is being created systematically. We do register significant results regarding the terms of our troops’ advancing."

"There area should be no in no one doubts that it would will be serve to extend the necessary area ensuring our security," he added.

"Our troops are advancing," Peskov continued. "No one here should have any doubt that our military is proceeding systematically, and we are seeing concrete results."

He cited the taking of Konstantinovka: "This is a milestone, it is the most important step towards taking the common fortified area of Kramatorsk and Slavyansk," he claimed according to TASS.

President Putin has of late been taking steps to strongly signal he's committed as ever to completing the war aims of Russia's 'special military operation' - despite reports of nationwide fuel shortages, and also a full-blown gasoline supply crisis in Crimea.

The Kremlin released footage on Friday evening of the 73-year old Russian leader visiting an auxiliary command post to meet with the chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces.

Putin wore a military uniform, which Russian state sources described as a sign of his resolve to "finish off the terrorist neo-Nazi vermin".

English-language RT's response: "...seems to desire for that security zone to begin on the Polish border."

Putin: "The more strikes the enemy attempts to carry out on our civilian facilities, the larger the security zone we will have to create in adjacent territories."

Sadly, the current Kiev regime seems to desire for that security zone to begin on the Polish border.…

— Chikhi Cato (@KatoHus56872326) July 4, 2026

The scene appeared aimed primarily at the West, which has been questioning Moscow's resolve due to the now frequent Ukrainian drone hits on sensitive energy infrastructure.

President Trump has also lately appeared to pivot back to wanting the resolve the Ukraine conflict, while still seeking permanent offramp regarding to the Iran war crisis.

Tyler Durden Sun, 07/05/2026 - 14:35

A Bad Moon Is Rising On Our Nation's 250th Birthday

Authored by James Howard Kunstler,

Burning Down The House...

"I forgot to get napkins. I just wiped my hand on the American flag behind me."

- Darializa Avila-Chevalier, primary election winner, New York’s 13th Congressional District

Who are all these Democratic Socialists of America, anyway?

DSA on the March shoulder to shoulder with the Pride Brigade

“We are Westerners fighting for the total eradication of Western civilization,” one of their spoxes declared on Instagram in 2024.

Hmmmm . . . . I wonder if you can be a little more specific. Like, including democracy and socialism, two western civ constructs? Kind of looks like a baby / bathwater situation, followed by burning down the house where the baby lived. Do we get a chance to debate this proposition in the midterm election?

Likewise, a St. Paul, Minnesota, school board member, one Chauntyll Allen offered the following policy recommendation on the We Love Our Dog Park Facebook page:

A bad moon is rising on our nation’s 250th birthday. The country is in a rancid mood. You begin to see what happens when political ideas are carried to their last limits. Question is: does all this add up to a winning party platform? You must suppose that higher-ups in the Democratic Party are asking themselves the question now. What do Hakeem Jeffries and Chuck Schumer think when they see these Angels of Death on the march (or in flight) over the midterm battlefield?

Darializa Avila Chevalier, Claire Valdez, and Melat Kiros are going to Congress to link arms with “The Squad” — AOC, Ilhan Omar, Rashida Tlaib, Ayanna Pressley — and they will bring their cargo of DSA policy ideas with them: racial, gender, and social justice; abolish ICE (no more deporting anybody); defund the police; end incarceration (no more jails); free housing and medical care; green this-n-that; government ownership of business; abolish the Senate and the electoral college; pack the SCOTUS...

The platform apparently has a lot of appeal to a certain demographic — which, I suspect, includes the many young recent graduates of the diploma mills who are pissed-off that Mr. Trump & Company are methodically shutting down the NGOs that were supposed to furnish these young race-and-gender studies majors with cushy, six-figure jobs doing “activism.” Alas, that pathway is increasingly blocked and the country only needs so many baristas.

What to do then? Take it to the limit! Be communists. . . with all that entails. 

What’s mine is mine and what’s yours is mine, too.

This new gen of Democratic Socialists is arguably worse than the Confederates of 1861. Those Rebs only wanted to secede from USA and go their own way in one corner of the land. They didn’t want to piss on Johann Sebastian Bach, Leonardo DaVinci, Jane Austen, Margaret Fuller, and Ralph Waldo Emerson as they walked out. The Democratic Socialists of our day are fully aligned with their avatars: Joseph Stalin, Mao Zedong, and Pol Pot, who operated human meat-grinders at scale to tamp down the opposition. Not a great look to align with the great mass-murderers of history.

It must be agony for Schumer and Jeffries. Eradicate Western Civ. . . ? Piss on white people’s corpses. . . ? Are they really going to get behind that? No-o-o-o-o. But they will try to wriggle around this steaming pile for some weeks to come until it is obvious that the Democratic Party has blown itself up, hoisted itself on that old petard. It may be too late for the party’s old guard. No matter how many rain-dances Elizabeth Warren does, nothing will put out this dumpster fire.

Another question for the months ahead: can that party control its increasingly maniacal street warriors, the Antifas, the Pink Pistols, the Transgender Armed Defense forces, and whatever remains of BLM. There is still a lot of money in circulation for public demonstrations and disruptions from George Soros and other sponsors. And apart from that are the forces of jihad, with their own foreign patrons. Gawd knows how many jihadis came into the country during “Joe Biden’s” orchestrated alien invasion. Not just a few, you can be sure.

By the way, can somebody at the Office of Management and Budget do an audit of the $370-billion that “Joe Biden” handed over to John Podesta in the fall of 2024 to administer “climate-related provisions” of the Inflation Reduction Act, and figure out how much of it bounced right back into Democratic Party-adjacent NGOs and down to party capos like Stacey Abrams in Georgia, Brandon Johnson in Chicago, and Karen Bass in LA?

And happy 250th birthday to you, America — if you can keep yourself.

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Tyler Durden Sun, 07/05/2026 - 14:00

Paul Pelosi Faces Charges In Napa County Hit-And-Run

Paul Pelosi, the 86-year-old husband of Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), faces misdemeanor charges for a hit-and-run after allegedly striking a parked car in Napa, California on Friday. 

According to a statement from the Napa County Sheriff’s Office, the collision occurred around 2:30 p.m. on July 3, 2026, on the 6700 block of Yount Street in Yountville. A witness reported seeing a brown convertible traveling northbound on Yount Street strike a parked car that was legally positioned on the shoulder of the roadway. The parked vehicle sustained significant rear-end damage. Pelosi briefly stopped before continuing on.

The witness called 911 to report the hit-and-run. Deputies responded and located Paul Pelosi a short time later, roughly a quarter-mile away. His brown convertible was found partially blocking Yountville Cross Road, with a California Highway Patrol vehicle positioned behind it. The front right side of Pelosi’s car showed significant damage consistent with the rear damage on the parked vehicle.

6700 block of Yount Street in Yountville

Pelosi told investigators that he knew he had hit something but did not know what it was or when it happened, so he kept driving until his vehicle became disabled and he could no longer continue.

No injuries were reported in the incident. A preliminary alcohol screening device administered at the scene detected no alcohol in Pelosi’s system, and deputies ruled out suspicion of driving under the influence.

Because there were no injuries, deputies did not arrest Pelosi at the scene - and instead issued him a misdemeanor citation for fleeing the scene of an accident. The Napa County Sheriff’s Office has submitted the case to the Napa County District Attorney’s Office for review and possible prosecution.

The sheriff’s office also submitted a referral to the California Department of Motor Vehicles to initiate a re-evaluation of Pelosi’s driving privileges, a process it described as common for older drivers.

Prior Legal History

This is not Pelosi’s first encounter with law enforcement in Napa County. In May 2022, he was involved in a DUI crash in the county. He later pleaded guilty to a misdemeanor charge of driving under the influence of alcohol causing injury. He was sentenced to five days in jail, three years of probation, ordered to complete a three-month driving class, install an ignition interlock device on his vehicle, and pay $5,000 in restitution for the victim’s medical bills plus $2,000 in additional fines.

In a separate 2022 incident, Pelosi was seriously injured when a suspect broke into the couple’s San Francisco home and struck him with a hammer. He underwent surgery for a skull fracture.

A spokesperson for the Pelosi family issued the following statement regarding the latest incident:

“Mr. Paul Pelosi has personally apologized to the owner of the vehicle and assured them that he would take responsibility for the damage to their vehicle. Speaker Pelosi will not be commenting further on this private matter.”

The Pelosis maintain ties to the Napa Valley region. Yountville is located approximately 50 miles north of San Francisco.

The Napa County Sheriff’s Office said it is continuing to investigate and will forward its findings to the district attorney. No further details on the condition of either vehicle or the identity of the parked car’s owner have been released.

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Tyler Durden Sun, 07/05/2026 - 13:25

Vertically Integrated Nations, Production For Security, And Rate Cuts

Submitted by Peter Tchir of Academy Securities

Let’s start with the important stuff: Hope you are having a great 4th of July 250th Anniversary Weekend.

Yields gained back some ground after the relatively weak jobs report (headline plus revisions was negative, the private sector underwhelmed, and unemployment only dropped because the labor force participation rate dropped by a relatively large 0.3%).

I will continue to pound the table (or rant and rave as the case may be) that this Fed Will Cut Rates in September. That was our main topic of discussion on the Bloomberg Radio segment above (and I did get to hear Tom Keene say my view looked smarter after the jobs data, than it had before the jobs data, when we spoke). MarketWatch also picked up on the interview and our prospect for cuts rather than hikes.

I have yet to hear compelling arguments on:

• Why the Cleveland Fed’s Rent metrics are not more accurate than what is currently used in “official” data?
• Why Truflation doesn’t deserve a lot more attention than it gets?

If anything, we’ve received comments pointing us to additional indices, surveys, etc., that likely present a more accurate picture of inflation (and they virtually all signal that we understated inflation post-Covid (hence Affordability is the Issue) and we are overstating the inflation rate now).

I really like the 2-year Treasury here, given what the market is pricing versus what I expect the reality to be.

The TV interview wound up focusing on AI. It wasn’t the topic I was most looking forward to, but was difficult to avoid when overnight headlines included:

• OpenAI potentially “giving” the U.S. a 5% stake.
• Meta offering to sell compute rather than using all of their compute for themselves.
• Apple requesting the ability to use Chinese made memory chips, in phones to be sold in China.

On any given day, one of those headlines would be interesting. To get all 3 in one day certainly attracted a lot of attention! It gave us a chance to talk about some of our main themes in AI:

• The need for the AI and Data Center Industry to ramp up their community outreach. My view that this industry needs to do a better job convincing people why they not only want and need AI, but that they also want it in their backyard.
• The comparisons to the fiber buildout during the dot.com boom!
• The risks of an AI “Revolution” (i.e., political backlash with negative consequences) and the risk to jobs. Trying to answer the question of whether humans are the horses in the current “Buggy Whip” transformation playing out. I admit that every time I write Buggy Whip, Rihanna’s song comes to mind, which is maybe why I didn’t say it on national TV. 

In case you missed it, Academy published this month’s Around the World this week focusing on Iran, Cuba, Russia/Ukraine, and Economic Tensions with China.

ProSec 2026 and Vertically Integrated Nations

We started 2026 with a comprehensive view of ProSec 2026 (yes, the font is obnoxiously large, but if you haven’t read that report, we urge you to read it now). The concept had evolved from National Production for National Security and Resilience to ProSec. There are many names attached to what is going on (HALO, Mercantilism, etc.) but we think ProSec captures the concept of “needing to produce more of some things for true national security” more fulsomely. Academy does have the advantage of being able to tap into the Geopolitical Intelligence Group for behind the scenes insight into national security discussions, both here and abroad.

Before we update our thoughts on ProSec, I want to go back to something we published back in October of 2025 – Is ProSec the New ESG? Even suggesting that something could replace ESG, let alone something along the lines of ProSec replacing ESG, less than a year ago, seemed half (or fully) insane. Now, people mostly shrug, or provide us examples (at the very least) of how they’ve seen thinking in their organization adapt ESG to incorporate the key elements of ProSec.

We won’t spend much time on these two thoughts today, but they should be highlighted:

• ProSec is Going Global. We won’t spend time on this today because it seems self-evident (and also I haven’t been able to work in the lyrics of Going Underground to Going Global, but I’m confident that eventually I will).
• ProSec will continue regardless of election outcomes. We won’t dwell on this, but the 250th birthday of a nation doesn’t seem like the appropriate time to sound political, and it is pretty difficult to not sound political when addressing this subject (though I think we have done a decent job on that front in reports, interviews, and presentations).

A Nation as a Human Being

We have discussed Vertically Integrated Nations, but I think this concept of trying to think of a nation as a living breathing organism (which it pretty much is) helps frame the prioritization of ProSec Industries.

The decision to include this chart from the start of the year report makes me cringe for a couple of reasons:

• The chart is pretty pathetic looking, even by my relatively basic charting skills. I spent some time using AI to try to make some cooler looking charts, but I was struggling, and it is a long weekend, and I might as well just accept my inability to make nice charts.
• I was horribly worried the chart would be missing a lot! Not like 6 months is a long time to withstand the pressures of time, but the chart (as ugly as it is) has held up reasonably well, at least in terms of the information it was trying to convey.
  • One regret (and poor decision) that we rectified months ago is that we gave SPACE short shrift. We did not highlight space appropriately. We did “lump it into” Defense, but if we wanted to redo the industry table, SPACE would have its own vertical.

The “chart” attempts to convey the following information:

• The sectors that we view as playing a crucial role in ProSec. For many people, their first thoughts on Production for Security is Military and Defense spending and production. That is only a small part of ProSec (at least in the U.S. which has invested heavily in this space for decades; whereas it might be a bigger part of ProSec for countries that have neglected spending to protect themselves on the military front).
• The width of the columns was meant to give an indication of the importance (the wider the column, the more there is to be done in that sector). I’d probably give SPACE its own column now.
• The colors were meant to be a “guesstimate” of how easy or difficult it would be. I’d probably reduce the amount of green in AI and Data Centers, as well as Electron Production, because I did think there would be a lot more progress on deregulation than there has been. NIMBY is strong in much of this country. I thought the defense spending would be easier (green), and may have underestimated entrenched politics and how long it can take the military to change direction. Drones seem like such an obvious area to focus on, and Undersecretary of War (for Personnel and Readiness) Tata had discussed the importance even before he submitted his information for the confirmation process. It seems slower to develop. I do think that Europe needs an Airbus type of consortium framework for drones to get some sort of reasonable defense capability built in a reasonably short time.

Let’s look at how we’d prioritize them now.

The ProSec Equivalents of Air

Humans cannot go more than a few minutes without air. We cannot exist without air. It is just that plain and simple.

What is the equivalent of air to a nation?

• Electricity. Not too long ago Spain suffered a major disruption in its ability to get electricity to its people. Industry (and the economy) ground to a halt. People died. Lack of electricity is hampering rescue efforts in Venezuela. The ability to generate electricity and get it to where it is needed should be one of the most important priorities for a country! We were trying to “solve” for many things with “sustainable energy” and I fully expect over time, we will get there on sustainable energy, but first and foremost we must prioritize our ability to generate plentiful amounts of electricity and ensure that it can get to where it is needed. This is a hill I’m prepared to die on. We need all forms of electricity and a plan to build out a backbone with supplemental capacity, that can, over time, include a different mix than today, but we (and every nation) needs to focus on this (possibly with a single-minded determination that I don’t think we’ve seen, even in the U.S.).
• Semiconductors. Every time I think that maybe chips aren’t the equivalent of “air” to a nation, at least a developed nation, I find it difficult to move it lower in prioritization. I had picked Intel in my start of the year favorites, but I regret not being even more vocally bullish on companies with strong U.S. roots in the industry.
• Fresh Water. Maybe living in the United States and Canada has made me “complacent” on water. I didn’t really include it as a critical industry or part of our U.S. ProSec theme, largely because it is so abundant. We have been arguing that areas with access to fresh water are increasingly attractive to industry, but that was more a function of ProSec than part of ProSec. We will be thinking of how to correct this mistake, especially for nations where access to fresh water is far from a given and needs to be part of their version of ProSec.

We will discuss the allocations between:

• Domestic production.
• Working with close allies and neighbors.
• Using the “open” market and global trade.

Those allocations will differ by country (maybe even by region). They will differ based on their trust of their neighbors and allies, as well as what the neighbors and allies can produce.

In conversations, the 80/20 rule has been discussed. That makes sense to a large degree. Achieve 80% of what you can, for 20% of the cost. Having said that, I would be willing to pay more to do more domestically with respect to sectors that are the equivalent of air to a nation.

The ProSec Equivalents of Hypothermia

General Spider Marks is a wealth of knowledge. He pointed out that humans in cold water die within 3 hours. He is correct, and it would fill a gap in my narrative, but it just doesn’t resonate with how I think about humans – sorry Spider.

The ProSec Equivalents of Water

Humans cannot last more than about 3 days without water.

What are the ProSec sectors that are the equivalent of water? Yeah, I get that I put fresh water in the air category, but work with me.

• Some processed and refined rare earths and critical minerals. First, for almost all rare earths, critical minerals, and commodities, I would prioritize the smelting, processing, and refining over the extraction. Sourcing the underlying elements is important, but the current/real bottleneck is the processing, refining, and smelting! The U.S. Department of the Interior is one source that can help prioritize which subsectors will be treated as the highest priorities. It is clear that the U.S. has taken the time to prioritize certain things and is executing a plan around those priorities.
• Defense. Other countries probably need to do this. For the U.S. I would prioritize drones (surface, air, underwater, etc.) as well as SPACE. Where are we at risk of being deficient? It seems incredibly difficult to argue that after years of Russia/Ukraine and a couple months of Iran/U.S. that we don’t need to close the gap in asymmetric warfare. We still need the exquisite platforms, but we cannot be expending difficult to make, time consuming to make, and expensive to make weapons systems to defend against cheap drones. In space, the U.S. is the world leader, but we may not have spent enough time and energy on “protecting” space, from potential bad actors. For the U.S., for the vast majority of areas, I’d put defense into the next category, but right now, it is difficult to argue that drones and space aren’t the equivalent of water when we look to the nation’s ability to be secure and prosperous.
• Some portion of biotech and pharma. Similar to the rare earths sector, not everything within the biotech and pharma sectors should be given the same priority that humans give to having access to fresh water, but some should be. This industry is incredibly complex, and I’m not yet sure of how I would even think about prioritizing this. I suspect that the current administration has some of the same issues. Tiering rare earths and critical minerals seems relatively simple compared to tiering things in this sector (not that it is less important to do so, it is just a lot more difficult). Should we be more worried about the highest end of tech? Or should we be more worried that the precursors and base drugs come primarily from China and India? Or both?
• A smattering of some heavy industry, commodities, and maybe even ship building. On the ship building side, drones and subs would be a priority. Surface and underwater drones will play a key role in warfare going forward. Submarines, according to most of Academy’s GIG members, is one area where we are still massively ahead of any other nation. Let’s maximize that advantage.

The ProSec Equivalents of Food

Apparently, humans can go 3 weeks without food. 3 weeks without food seems ridiculous, but I’m told it is true. So, if you are part of ProSec but not given the priority of air or water, you are part of the “food” category.

I did not include food as a sector, which might be fair in the U.S. with the amazing agricultural bounty we have, but it would be a sector for many other countries.

Just because the “food equivalent” is the “third” category of ProSec doesn’t mean these sectors shouldn’t be given a much higher priority than they have been. The rest of biotech, pharma, rare earths, commodities, ship building, heavy industry, and defense all need attention and prioritization.

We all spend time making sure that we can put food on the table for our families. Prayers include “our daily bread.” We celebrate as a nation – Thanksgiving – of which an element of the thanks is directed toward food.

Investment, prioritization, etc. will be done for these sectors (and subsectors too), but there is probably more time before it is urgent to be overweight these areas in your portfolio (for asset managers) or in your supply chain (for corporations).

The Founding Fathers Would Likely Be In Favor of ProSec

While I don’t want to appropriate the 4th of July, it does seem like ProSec is about as American as things can get in the economy. I do argue that ProSec is doing a couple of major things:

• Revitalizing areas and geographic regions that may not have been engines of growth for the past few decades. Areas that are ideal for manufacturing, that struggled while the U.S. was busy de-industrializing? Could we see the return of the “Company Town”? Think about the access to logistics for some of the “company towns.” Highways were built around their production. Many are situated on useful waterways. Certainly, access to fresh water helped situate many of these “company towns.” There are the bones of real prosperity there – historic, often magnificent buildings. Affordability may also be addressed by this revitalization. There may well be new “company towns” formed. I think the potential benefits for affordability and to geographically spreading wealth cannot be overestimated. Think about pride in communities, which already abounds in the U.S., growing! I’m excited about this front and think commercial real estate needs to be thinking about what areas will benefit from ProSec.
• A Resurgence of the Middle Class. I’ve always thought that the “middle class” was more of a vibe than an “income level.” Going home for the weekend and knowing will you have a job Monday morning, and that job is important to the fabric (and survival/sustainability) of a nation is very different than wondering if the owners found someone, somewhere in the world, who will deliver something 20% cheaper than you can. Pride in jobs and knowing that whatever you are doing (maybe even writing weekend financial missives) is part of something bigger.

Since I’m sounding a bit like I’ve got the rose-colored glasses on, I will say one thing that can be construed as negative, because it probably is.

When I think about humans’ ability to live without air, water, or food, versus our ability to adapt to a 1 degree temperature change over the course of a decade, you can guess what I’d prioritize. I am all for having bigger plans for a “better” future, but that “better” future should make sure we are taken care of with respect to things we cannot live long without.

I hope everyone is enjoying their long weekend and I hope that not only does this report resonate with you on the business front, but that I can also convey why I’m so excited about this concept on a much bigger level than what we do in our day jobs!

Tyler Durden Sun, 07/05/2026 - 12:50

Food Retailers Troubled By This Chart

Consumer staples and food retail equity analyst Scott Marks at Jefferies told clients Saturday that one of the most concerning charts for food retailers is the sharp decline in average benefits per SNAP participant under the Trump administration, as the USDA intensifies efforts to root out fraud, waste, and abuse.

SNAP's elevated payment error rates are setting up a new fiscal fight between the Trump administration and states.

Marks said food retailers are caught in the crosshairs:

SNAP error rates set up state cost-sharing showdown. USDA last week released FY2025 SNAP payment error rates, showing a national rate of 10.62% (a modest improvement vs. FY2024) that still translates to roughly $10B in improper payments, with all but 10 states landing above the 6% congressional threshold.

Under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, FY2025 marks the first year of data that can be used to determine state cost-sharing obligations beginning October 2027, when states above the threshold will be on the hook for 5%, 10%, or 15% of their benefit costs depending on tier.

Combined with already-falling SNAP participants (down ~11.6% y/y to ~37.3mm recipients in March on tighter work requirements), the looming cost shift raises the risk of further benefit tightening or eligibility friction at the state level, which would be an incremental headwind for food retailers and center-store packaged food categories most exposed to SNAP spend.

Here's the chart:

Value-focused food retailers such as Dollar General, Dollar Tree, Family Dollar, 7-Eleven, WinCo Foods, Save A Lot and Food 4 Less are among the most exposed to SNAP spending.

Major grocery and retail names with meaningful SNAP exposure include Walmart, Kroger, Albertsons, Dollar General, Dollar Tree, Costco Wholesale, BJ's Wholesale Club and Ahold Delhaize, the parent of Food Lion, Giant, Stop & Shop, Hannaford and other U.S. grocery brands.

The Trump administration continues to purge SNAP of fraud, waste, abuse and, of course, illegal aliens. Since President Trump signed the OBBBA into law one year ago, enrollment in the food program has fallen to just 37 million people, down 5 million from a year earlier.

Tyler Durden Sun, 07/05/2026 - 12:15

Putin Invites Trump To Visit Russia In 'Constructive' July 4th Phone Call

A nearly 90-minute phone call between Presidents Trump and Putin on July 4th could signal shifting White House priorities, as it tries to find permanent offramp and settlement in Iran and the Strait of Hormuz, but also as the Ukraine war seems to be fast heating up again.

Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov said in comments made public Sunday that Trump offered Putin to help find a solution to the war in Ukraine.

Shutterstock, Sputnik via EPA

"The American president once again confirmed his readiness to work towards a rapid end to the fighting and find solutions to overcome the crisis," Ushakov said of Trump's call. He called conversation "business-like and quite constructive."

The spokesman further stated that Russia sought "a political-diplomatic resolution of the conflict, with due account of Russia's fundamental approach."

But Ushakov also lashed out at the Zelensky government, accusing it and its European allies of "counting on extending and even escalating the conflict, and on terrorism against civilians."

This referred to the fact that Ukraine's repeat drone strikes deep inside Russian territory have severely damaged energy infrastructure, as well as hit residential buildings and areas, resulting in casualties.

Ushakov further described that in the call Putin "depicted the real situation on the battlefield where the Russian armed forces are confidently advancing, liberating one locality after another."

Putin had also apparently renewed his initial Alaska Summit invitation for Trump to visit Russia, where further bilateral dialogue can take place, Axios noted.

Trump on Saturday had also held a call with Ukrainian President Zelensky, who later said on Telegram the talk was "very good".  Zelensky stated that "There is a real prospect to end this war and American resolve will have a crucial meaning."

Zelensky and Trump are expected to continue the discussion at the upcoming NATO Summit in Ankara, set for July 7-8.

Zelensky had further taken the opportunity to highlight some of the latest weapons support from Washington: "We are grateful to the United States for all the assistance we have received – from Javelins and Patriots to political support – and we deeply value that America stands by us in defending our independence. I am grateful to every American heart that cares about the future of Ukraine, Europe, and everyone around the world for whom freedom matters," he said.

Russian President Vladimir Putin called President Trump and congratulated him for the U.S. 250 independence day. The Kremlin says the call lasted an hour and a half. Putin invited Trump to visit Russia https://t.co/ZOfR0tE4fv

— Barak Ravid (@BarakRavid) July 4, 2026

Currently each warring side disputes the degree to which Russian forces are advancing. Supporters on either side have even been issuing contradictory battlefield maps, and the fog of war is thick.

Tyler Durden Sun, 07/05/2026 - 11:05

UK Government's Shocking Bid To Rig YouTube Algorithm To Force-Feed BBC Propaganda

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity News,

In a brazen move that reeks of authoritarian control, the UK government is pushing plans to seize influence over YouTube's recommendation system. Their goal is to prioritise content from the BBC, and other state backed propaganda machines, while burying independent journalists and creators who dare challenge the official narrative.

This isn't subtle nudging - it's direct engineered suppression, which they're dressing up as "protecting democracy" from so-called disinformation. As public trust in legacy media plummets, the establishment's response is to rig the game rather than earn back credibility.

YouTube itself has warned creators about the proposals. The platform alerted users that new rules could force it to give privileged positioning to approved outlets, limiting growth for everyone else and reshaping what millions see daily. Independent voices who built audiences by speaking truth to power now face algorithmic exile.

Look at this appalling state censorship.

Labour now want to seize control of YouTube's algorithm.

They want YouTube to artificially boost the BBC and Channel 4's content, and suffocate independent journalists and producers.

The BBC has been biased to pro-mass migration,... pic.twitter.com/QbwrRNjkSo

— Nigel Farage MP (@Nigel_Farage) July 5, 2026

GB News' Alex Armstrong labelled the move "an act of pure tyranny, designed to control you, your family and your friends on an industrial scale."

'An act of pure tyranny, designed to control you, your family and your friends on an industrial scale. They want you to be sheep.'@AlexArmstrong shares his outrage at government plans to push 'propaganda' and state controlled media to the top of your social media feed. pic.twitter.com/kZ2cQ6ykmS

— GB News (@GBNEWS) July 4, 2026

The Free Speech Union described the move as "beyond dystopian."

This is beyond dystopian. https://t.co/fnaA4FOm5A

— The Free Speech Union (@SpeechUnion) July 5, 2026

People fled to platforms like YouTube and X precisely because of the BBC's documented biases on mass migration, Net Zero, and more - biases even internal BBC reports have acknowledged. Now, the government wants to drag that failing model into your feed by law.

Technology and free speech lawyer Preston Byrne slammed it as the British government seeking to "influence and control the marketplace of ideas."

'It's the British government seeking to influence and control the marketplace of ideas.'

Technology and free speech lawyer Preston Byrne reacts to government plans to push 'propaganda' and state controlled media to the top of your social media feed. pic.twitter.com/CSWuyVWaqw

— GB News (@GBNEWS) July 4, 2026

Lord Toby Young highlighted the absurdity in The Spectator: calling the targeted media "trustworthy" is a misnomer when people have already abandoned it. Forcing platforms to promote it won't restore trust - it will confirm the desperation.

In my latest @Spectator column, I ridicule the Government's Media Green Paper and its proposal that social media platforms should be forced to boost 'trusted' media sources, like the BBC.

"Isn't it a bit of a misnomer to describe the media content the government wants people to...

— Toby Young (@toadmeister) July 4, 2026

The Free Speech Union also linked the development to Culture Secretary Lisa Nandy's exit from X, where she cited threats to democracy all while her department advances state-favoured content rules.

Lisa Nandy has quit X. Yes, the Secretary of State for Culture, Media and Sport has decided that, rather than challenge so-called misinformation and disinformation, she would rather vacate the stage.

She has dubbed the platform a threat to democracy and free speech.

Since when... pic.twitter.com/n5MrboDwup

— The Free Speech Union (@SpeechUnion) July 4, 2026

It's the same playbook we've seen over and over: label dissent as dangerous, then legislate your preferred sources into prominence.

The Mercian News pointed out the BBC's own admission that only around 30% of the public trusts national news organisations, with over 50% trusting social media more. Forcing exposure won't fix that - it exposes the contempt for audience choice.

The BBC is so trusted that the government has to use the law to force you to pay for it and now has to use the law to force you to watch it. https://t.co/BAmXtFGZce

— The Mercian (@TheMercianNews) July 5, 2026

Even some on the left, like the Labour Digital Rights Network, have criticised the hypocrisy of engineering a sanitised internet while claiming to fight Big Tech.

? The government's new media consultation is a blatant attempt to seize control of social media algorithms and enforce a "state-approved" news feed.

Under the guise of promoting "trustworthy news", @DCMS is exploring legislative options to force platforms like YouTube to give... pic.twitter.com/J8HOlOgyon

— Labour Digital Rights Network (@LabDRN) July 5, 2026

? The government's new media consultation is a blatant attempt to seize control of social media algorithms and enforce a "state-approved" news feed.

Under the guise of promoting "trustworthy news", @DCMS is exploring legislative options to force platforms like YouTube to give... pic.twitter.com/J8HOlOgyon

— Labour Digital Rights Network (@LabDRN) July 5, 2026

The post continues...

The hypocrisy is staggering. Just days after @lisanandy proudly announced she was abandoning @X because it "favours abuse and misinformation", her department is now trying to artificially engineer a sanitised internet elsewhere. We cannot afford to let the state become the sole arbiter of truth online. Yes, we are highly critical of Big Tech's toxic algorithms that monopolise our attention and harvest our data to generate profit. But the solution to surveillance capitalism is robust regulation, algorithmic transparency, and data protection - not a state-dictated media feed.

Resistance is already brewing. YouTube's warnings have sparked calls for pushback. Creators and users are urged to respond to the government's consultation, which closes August 31. Ben Graham suggested a practical defence: block the BBC, ITV, and Channel 4 channels to starve the forced promotion of engagement.

If you think the algorithm is being reshaped, the simplest response is to take control of your own feed.

Block the BBC, ITV and Channel 4 if you don't want them in your recommendations.

They can't push content you don't engage with. https://t.co/zpOYPWJGAL

— Ben Graham (@BenGrahamUK) July 4, 2026

Of course, the government could, via it's regulator Ofcom, simply mandate that these sources cannot be blocked and must be injected into people's feeds. They could also employ a more subtle manipulation of the algorithm to ensure it happens, regardless of any blocking.

Preston Byrne argued Google should draw a hard line - threatening to close its UK data centre and operations rather than comply with foreign censorship demands. American tech shouldn't bend to UK overreach.

Google has exactly one data center in the UK.

All it has to do is threaten to close it and pull out its personnel. That is the answer to foreign censorship, it is the only answer, and the longer Big Tech ignores the option the more cancerous foreign regulation will become. https://t.co/YANnrNtkoc

— Preston Byrne (@prestonjbyrne) July 4, 2026

The government frames this as voluntary cooperation with legislation as backup, especially during unrest. Critics see it as the thin end of the wedge toward a Ministry of Truth, where "approved" sources drown out scrutiny of open borders, policy failures, and elite consensus.

This isn't about quality journalism - it's about control. When legacy outlets lose the audience on merit, the state steps in to mandate relevance. Independent creators built YouTube's vibrancy; now they're collateral in a war on wrongthink.

Britons deserve better than algorithmically enforced propaganda. The pushback must be fierce: block, respond to consultations, support platforms that resist, and back politicians who reject this surveillance-state creep. Freedom of information is too vital to surrender to failing institutions desperate to cling to power.

This UK initiative does not stand alone. Similar moves are advancing in lockstep across the continent as governments seek greater leverage over information flows.

Germany has pursued measures to force social media platforms to boost state-aligned content and sideline dissenting material under the banner of "public value."

The EU's Democracy Shield framework has drawn sharp criticism as a vehicle for mass censorship that effectively ends open discourse under the guise of protecting democracy.

In France, President Macron has pushed aggressive censorship proposals widely described as a Ministry of Truth power grab.

The pattern is unmistakable: governments leveraging regulatory power to privilege official or state-funded sources while algorithmically demoting alternatives.

The BBC prioritization scheme fits into a rapid succession of UK measures that collectively tighten state influence over digital space and public narrative.

The under-16s social media ban has been exposed as a monumental pretext for total digital surveillance infrastructure.

Telegram founder Pavel Durov warned that the policy represents the digital iceberg that could sink the free internet.

Separate reporting revealed the UK government maintains a dedicated "thought police" unit aimed at controlling the mass migration narrative.

Further proposals would empower authorities to block "false information" during crisis events, creating an official Ministry of Truth mechanism.

London Mayor Sadiq Khan has separately called for a government social media disinformation unit, adding another layer of official narrative enforcement.

Advocates insist elevating BBC content will help users encounter more "reliable" information. The claim collapses under even cursory examination of the broadcaster's recent track record.

The BBC has repeatedly been accused of sinking to new lows on accuracy and impartiality.

Its former news director stated that trans bias and progressive orthodoxy drove her departure.

Additional controversies include a high-profile fake news editing scandal that prompted a $10 billion lawsuit from President Trump.

Further examples involve portrayals of Islamic child slavery in Afghanistan as somehow necessary, biased handling of Islamist issues in Britain, and presenter conduct that drew sharp rebukes from figures like John Cleese.

 

Mandating algorithmic favoritism for any single outlet, especially one with the BBC's baggage, will not restore trust. Alternative platforms continue to grow, and Community Notes-style transparency tools already expose manipulation faster than official gatekeepers can suppress it.

Governments that distrust citizens to navigate information without state curation reveal more about their own insecurities than about any genuine disinformation crisis.

The free exchange of ideas, even uncomfortable ones, remains the only proven defense against real propaganda.

These latest European and British maneuvers represent the opposite impulse: centralized narrative control dressed up as public protection.

Citizens on both sides of the Atlantic have seen this playbook before and are increasingly unwilling to play along.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Sun, 07/05/2026 - 10:30

Red Sea Blockage Fears: Cargo Ship Attacked Off Southwest Yemen

A Red Sea disruption would be terrible timing for global shipping and energy markets, coming just as vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has started to normalize in recent weeks.

An overnight report that a cargo ship was attacked by "armed assailants" in the southern Red Sea off Yemen is a reminder that the region's maritime-risk premium has not totally disappeared; it has simply shifted chokepoints.

"UKMTO has received a report of an incident 30NM southwest of Al Hudaydah, Yemen. A cargo vessel has triggered a distress alert stating that they are under attack by unknown armed assailants," the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations wrote in an alert published on X early Sunday morning.

If the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, the southern gateway of the Red Sea that sits between Yemen and the Arabian Peninsula, begins flashing red again, the Suez-Red Sea maritime trade route could quickly become a major headache for global shipping companies, forcing more vessels around the Cape of Good Hope and reigniting pressure on freight rates, insurance costs, and energy-linked supply chains - thus fueling inflation.

Nomura's Chief Economist for India and Asia ex-Japan, Sonal Varma, recently outlined for clients the critical importance of the Red Sea:

Since the Houthi attacks in 2023, global trade via the Red Sea has fallen, but the Bal el-Mandeb Strait and Suez Canal still account for 9% of global maritime traffic, ~20% of global container traffic and ~8.7% of world oil supply (including the SUMED pipeline). The Cape of Good Hope is an alternative route that will be used, but it involves longer transit times, higher fuel costs and increased freight rates.

Why this matters for Asia:

Most of the crude oil and condensate shipped via the Red Sea is destined for Asia (~68% of total), especially India. Around 40% of Asia-Europe trade transited through the Suez Canal in early 2024, including manufactured goods (electronics, vehicles and textiles), intermediate inputs for supply chains (auto and electronic components) and agricultural products (wheat, rice, sugar and tea).

Implications for Asia:

With the Strait of Hormuz blocked, Red Sea disruptions would aggravate the supply crunch. The cost of oil and petroleum product imports would rise for the region overall, with a higher burden for India, owing to its dependence on Russian oil via the Suez Canal. Asia's exports to Europe could also be adversely affected, due to higher freight costs and longer transit times. The dependence of the European auto industry on component imports from Asia would also likely impact the auto sector.

Latest Gulf area news (courtesy of Bloomberg):

Khamenei Funeral Proceedings

• Iran began a mass funeral for Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on Saturday, July 4, with his body lying in state at Tehran's Imam Khomeini Mosalla mosque complex for public visits over the weekend

• Tens of thousands of mourners streamed to the Grand Mosalla religious complex in Tehran on Saturday to view the caskets of Khamenei and some of his family members

• Iranian authorities predict up to 20 million people will turn out over six days of funeral ceremonies beginning Saturday

• Khamenei's coffin, wrapped in an Iranian flag, was placed on a platform alongside the coffins of family members killed in the same US-Israeli attack on February 28

Khamenei's Death and War Context

• Khamenei, who ruled over Iran for 37 years, was killed along with several family members in a US and Israeli airstrike on the first day of the war in late February

• Iran feared it was too dangerous to hold funeral rites for four months, but is now proceeding shielded by a tentative truce and an America distracted by its 250th July Fourth celebration

Post-War Political Landscape

• Iran's new leadership is described as younger, savvier, ruthless and even more hard-line, contradicting Trump's claim of accomplishing "regime change"

• After surviving months of strikes by the US and Israel, the Iranian regime has emerged emboldened

Hormuz Tensions

• At least eight ships attempting to leave the Persian Gulf along the Omani coast turned back between Friday and Saturday, with some switching to a route closer to Iran

• The number of vessels sailing through the Strait of Hormuz along the Omani coast fell to a trickle on Sunday, after several made sharp reversals on Saturday

• Iran's ambassador to Beijing said China and other friendly nations will be granted 'special considerations' when Tehran determines service fees for ships using the Strait of Hormuz

• Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister warned the UK and France against meddling in the Strait of Hormuz, stating it is not a military playground for extra-regional powers

International Naval Presence

• French aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle will return to its home port in Toulon after a nearly two-month deployment near the Strait of Hormuz, while mine countermeasure assets will remain deployed 

Oil Market

• Major OPEC+ members agreed on Sunday to add 188,000 barrels a day to their output target for next month, adding to the prospect of more supply if a US-Iran peace pact can stick

• Flows of oil and natural gas have been returning to normal and prices have tumbled since an interim US-Iran accord was signed last month that pried open the Strait of Hormuz

Latest ZH Coverage:

• Ships Abruptly U-Turn Near Hormuz As Some Shift To Iran-Approved Routes

• Europe Capitulates, Sees Iranian Hormuz Fee Collection As 'Inevitable'

• Iran Runs Into Big Problem: No Buyers For Its Oil, As Full Tankers Pile Up Off China

• 'Gave Iran Week Off Because We're Nice': Trump References Ayatollah Funeral In Rushmore Speech

Professional subscribers can read more on energy markets and chokepoints here at our new Marketdesk.ai portal. 

Tyler Durden Sun, 07/05/2026 - 09:55

Wage Growth As A Leading Inflation Indicator

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

Wage growth peaked four years ago. Since 1985, it has led CPI by three to seventeen months in every single cycle. The May 4.2% inflation print is the noise. Watch the wages.

Headline CPI just printed 4.2% year-over-year for May. The highest reading since April 2023. The 10-year Treasury punched above 4.6% on the back of it, then pulled back recently. Energy ran +23.5% over the past twelve months on the Iran war, accounting for roughly 60% of the monthly all-items gain, and the doom crowd keeps pushing this is 1979 all over again with rate hikes ahead, a recession behind, and a cornered Fed. Here is why they are likely wrong.

After three decades of watching inflation cycles turn, I can tell you the variable that actually leads CPI peaks is wage growth. And wage growth peaked fifty months ago.

Wage Growth Leads. CPI Follows.

For decades, economists taught the Phillips Curve as if it were a law of physics. Tight labor markets push wages up. Higher wages push prices up. Inflation is born. That model worked through the 1970s. It hasn’t worked since.

Two things broke it. First, Paul Volcker pushed the funds rate to 19% in 1981 and held it there until the wage-price spiral snapped, and union density collapsed. COLA clauses vanished from labor contracts, globalization began pulling tradeable-goods prices toward the global marginal cost of production, and the entire institutional architecture that had transmitted wage gains into consumer prices through the 1970s came apart. By the mid-1980s, the relationship had inverted.

Second, the Fed earned credibility. Once households and firms believed the central bank would tolerate a deep recession to stop inflation, expectations re-anchored near 2%. Workers stopped pricing future inflation into today’s wage demands. I walked through the duration implications of this regime in my recent rising-rates piece, so I won’t relitigate the bond math here.

Here’s the inversion in plain terms. Before 1985, CPI ran first. Workers chased it with catch-up raises. Wages followed prices. After 1985, the causation flipped. Wage growth comes first because tight labor markets signal demand pressure before that pressure is transmitted to consumer prices. Wages aren’t reacting anymore. They’re forecasting.

That distinction sounds small, but it changes everything. It changes which indicator tells you something, and whether today’s CPI print is information or noise. It also changes how to interpret the current data, which the doom crowd is misreading.

Four Cycles, Four Times Wages Led

The chart below plots wage growth in black against CPI in red, from 1965 through May 2026. The gold-tinted section is pre-Volcker. The white section is post-1985.

Look at the pre-1985 stretch. The red line peaks first. The black line follows. In 1970, CPI peaked in February. Wages didn’t top out until May 1971, fifteen months later. In 1980, CPI peaked in March. Wages peaked in January 1981, ten months later. The 1974 oil shock is the only pre-1985 case in which wages and the CPI peaked together.

Now look at the post-1985 stretch. The pattern flips.

In 1990, wages peaked in June and CPI peaked in October, a four-month lead. Then, in the 2008 cycle, wages peaked in February 2007 while CPI didn’t peak until July 2008, a seventeen-month lead. In the post-Great Recession cycle, wages peaked in May 2010, and the CPI peaked sixteen months later in September 2011. And in 2022, wages peaked in March, and CPI peaked in June, a tight three-month lead driven by goods inflation transmitting quickly through broken supply chains rather than the slower wage-to-services pathway that had run the previous three cycles. Same direction every time.

Over four different cycles, wages repeatedly led. The lead ranged from three to seventeen months, and the direction never broke.

When Real Wages Compress, Inflation Dies

The lead-lag pattern is the headline finding. The deeper mechanism runs through real wages.

Real wage growth is nominal wage growth minus CPI inflation. When workers’ wages outpace prices, they spend more. They sustain demand, and inflation has room to keep running. When prices outpace wages, workers cut back. Demand falls. Inflation rolls over within about a year.

I ran the correlation across every monthly observation from January 1965 through May 2024. The correlation between today’s real wage growth and the change in CPI over the following twenty-four months is +0.72 across 713 monthly observations. That’s an extraordinarily strong relationship in macro data, where values above 0.5 are rare.

When real wages compress to negative levels, the next two years see CPI deceleration. When real wages run hot, CPI accelerates over the following two years. The relationship holds in both regimes. The gold pre-1985 dots show it. The navy post-1985 dots show it.

Now look at where we are.

Real wage growth ran +1% to +1.5% through most of 2024. It’s now -0.6%. Workers are no longer outrunning inflation; they’re falling behind, and although this isn’t the four-percent compression of 1980 or the deep negative readings that preceded the 2008 demand collapse, the direction matters because every single time real wages have crossed below zero in the post-1985 sample, CPI has rolled over on a twelve-to-twenty-four-month lag. The pattern is clean.

2008, Re-Run

The closest parallel to the current setup isn’t 1979. It’s 2008.

In early 2007, wage growth peaked at around 4.1%. The labor market was strong. Unemployment was below 5%. Real wages were positive but compressing. Then oil prices rose from $60 to $147 in 18 months. Headline CPI followed the oil chart straight up. By July 2008, CPI was running at 5.5%, and every television commentator was warning of runaway inflation.

What happened next? Demand cratered. The real-wage compression had been working in the background for over a year. By the time CPI peaked, the consumer was already broken. Within twelve months, CPI was negative. The worry wasn’t inflation anymore. It was deflation.

I’m not predicting a 2008-style collapse. Bank balance sheets are stronger now, household leverage is lower, the labor market hasn’t started shedding jobs the way it did in late 2007, and the Fed has more room to act than it did when the funds rate was already at 5.25% on the eve of the financial crisis. But the inflation setup is structurally identical. We have a clean wage peak that led the cycle by years. We have an oil-driven CPI bump landing on top of decelerating wage growth. And we have a bond market still digesting, which signal matters.

Notice in the chart above how cleanly wages turned over in March 2022. CPI followed three months later. Since then, both have fallen. The May bounce on the red line is the Iranian energy shock. Wages didn’t bounce. That divergence is the tell.

What The Doom Crowd Needs To Believe

The bear case isn’t crazy. It needs two things to be true that aren’t true yet.

First, wage growth has to re-accelerate. The story goes that tariffs and immigration restrictions tighten the labor market, wages rise again, and a second wave of inflation ratifies the headline bounce. The problem is the data. Wage growth in May was 3.56%, the lowest reading of the entire current cycle. The deceleration has been monotonic from the 7.0% peak in March 2022 through every month of the past four years, and labor market indicators from the JOLTS quits rate to the Atlanta Fed Wage Growth Tracker continue to point in the same direction. No turn yet.

Second, long-run inflation expectations have to de-anchor. That’s the 1970s playbook. It’s also where the Fed’s credibility lives. Currently, there is little risk of that as the 10-year breakeven inflation rate sits near 2.4%. The Cleveland Fed’s 5-year forward rate expectations are near 2.5%.

What This Means For Portfolios

Three implications. First, the duration sell-off looks overdone. When the 10-year is above 4.5%, it is pricing structural inflation. However, wage growth is telling you the structural force runs in the opposite direction, the breakeven curve is barely budging from its 2.4% base, and the bond market’s ten-basis-point rally on the Iran peace headline told you exactly what the marginal buyer thinks is driving the recent move. I made the broader case for owning duration into a wage-led disinflation in my recent rising-rates piece, and nothing in the May print changes the view.

Second, the trade is asymmetric. If wages keep decelerating, 10-year yields will fall meaningfully over the next 12 months. If wages re-accelerate, the monthly prints will tell you in time to adjust. The cost of being wrong is small. The cost of missing the move is high.

Third, the equity tilt favors quality compounders and long-duration growth over commodity producers. Disinflation expands multiples but compresses cyclical earnings. The 2008-2009 pattern was multiples up, EPS down. A milder version of that setup tilts the same way.

Inflation isn’t a single print. It’s a regime. Regimes are determined by what leads, not what follows.

The doom crowd is staring at a coincident indicator being pushed around by an oil shock and calling it a trend, when the actual leading indicator, the one that’s worked in every single post-Volcker cycle, the one with a +0.72 correlation against the path of CPI over the next two years, is wage growth, and wage growth peaked fifty months ago, sits at 3.6%, and is dragging real wages into compression. That setup forecasts disinflation. NOT acceleration.

I’m not saying inflation is dead. I’m saying the burden of proof has shifted. Until wages turn up and expectations de-anchor, watch the wages

Frequently Asked Questions Why does wage growth lead CPI after 1985 but lag it before?

In the pre-Volcker era, inflation expectations were unanchored. Workers and firms priced wages today based on expected future inflation, so wages tracked CPI. After Volcker broke the wage-price spiral and the Fed established credibility, expectations stabilized. Wages now reflect labor-market tightness rather than expected inflation, meaning wage growth signals demand pressure before it shows up in consumer prices.

If wage growth peaked in March 2022, why did CPI peak only three months later?

The 2022 cycle was unusual because the CPI peak was driven heavily by goods inflation from supply-chain disruptions and the oil price spike driven by the war, which quickly translated into higher prices. In more typical cycles, such as 2008 or 2011, the lead time stretched to 16-17 months. The current setup more closely resembles 2008, where an oil shock layered on top of an already-decelerating underlying trend.

How do you measure real wage growth, and why does it matter?

Real wage growth is nominal wage growth (AHETPI YoY) minus CPI YoY. It measures whether workers are getting richer or poorer in real terms. When real wages are positive, consumers sustain demand, and inflation has room to keep running. When real wages turn negative, consumers cut back, demand falls, and inflation tends to roll over within twelve to twenty-four months. The May 2026 reading is -0.6%, the lowest of this cycle.

What would change your view on this thesis?

Two things. First, a sustained re-acceleration in wage growth, meaning the labor market is tightening again rather than slowly normalizing. Second, a meaningful rise in long-run inflation expectations, particularly the 10-year breakeven rate above 3% or the Michigan 5-10-year survey above 4%. Either would shift the probability distribution. Until then, wage growth continues to point toward disinflation.

Why is the 10-year Treasury elevated if wages are pointing to disinflation?

The bond market is reacting to the May CPI print and the renewed oil shock, both of which are coincident or backward-looking signals. The 10-year breakeven sits near 2.4%, meaning most of the yield rise reflects higher real rates and term premium rather than higher inflation expectations. That’s a different story from 1979. Yields fell roughly ten basis points the day the Iran peace headlines hit, which tells you the market knows the inflation bump is energy-driven.

Tyler Durden Sun, 07/05/2026 - 09:20

The UK's Latest "Debanking" Scandal Should Give Everyone Pause

Authored by Nick Corbishley via NakedCapitalism.com,

UK-based readers may recall the moment almost exactly three years ago when the word “debanking” entered the mainstream British English lexicon. The prestigious London-based private bank Coutts had just decided to close Nigel Farage’s bank account due to his unsavoury political views and alleged Russian connections. That decision turned out to be very costly.

Almost immediately, Farage did what Farage does best: he whipped up a massive media frenzy. In next to no time two senior banking scalps had been claimed: those of Dame Alison Rose, the CEO of Coutts’ parent bank and “Big Four” lender, Natwest (formerly known as the Royal Bank of Scotland) and Coutts’ chief executive Peter Flavel.

Within a month, Natwest’s share price had slumped 8%, wiping £1 billion off its market cap, much of which was being propped up with public funds, and generating juicy returns for short-selling hedge funds. As we reported at the time, the resulting scandal drew much-needed public attention to a long-standing but accelerating trend — the “de-banking” of people and organisations with politically inconvenient views:

[T]his is hardly a one-off event: as I reported a couple of weeks ago, banks on both sides of the Atlantic are increasingly debanking their customers, often without explanation. I gave the example of California-based writer, activist, and social and political commentator Elad Nehorai, whose political views and ideals could not diverge more from those of Nigel Farage. Yet he, too, had his account at Bank of America, his bank of many years, summarily closed with no apparent warning or explanation…

Without a bank account, it is almost impossible to participate in the economy. And it is getting more difficult as cash becomes harder and harder to access and use. As Alex Lo writes for South China Morning Post, “Banking is a fundamental utility like water and electricity, and that’s precisely why democratic societies are increasingly turning to its use as a method of censorship and repression.”

However, the resulting government inquiry concluded that customers were not being “debanked” for political reasons. As a result, not only has debanking continued but debanked customers now face the prospect of being blocked from setting up new accounts at other banks, as the Telegraph reported on Monday:

Banks are planning to block “debanked” customers from setting up accounts with other lenders, potentially leading to innocent people being effectively locked out of the financial system, The Telegraph can reveal.

Lobby group UK Finance is developing a platform that will allow banks to share data on their customers where they detect “markers of economic crime”.

Lloyds, Barclays and Revolut have already started sharing data about customers, leading to accounts being frozen or closed, The Telegraph understands, following a pilot in 2024.

The data-sharing platform will build on that pilot to make a UK-wide system, which could automatically bar people from opening another account.

But concerns have been raised that thousands of innocent customers and businesses who have been debanked unfairly could be barred from opening up an account with another bank, effectively leaving them locked out of the financial system.

The latest victim of the debanking trend is the left-wing news website The Canary, which has accused the Lloyds Banking Group of “withholding a substantial amount of our money”  after nearly a decade of use. The news outlet — which brands itself as “radical working-class media” — says “Lloyds has not explained why it has taken this action… despite multiple communications from us”.

In a statement on Tuesday, the Canary speculated about the possible reasons behind Lloyds’ decision, including its anti-Zionist and pro-Palestine stance:

Whilst we do not currently know the reasons behind our debanking, we cannot afford to be naive about this.

We do know that multiple other politically engaged people have suffered similar actions by other banks in recent times. It is not lost on us that powerful banks are able to restrict the financial activity of anti-Zionist and pro-Palestine organisations and individuals.

It is an outrage that the Canary has been unceremoniously dropped into financial instability with no notice or explanation from Lloyds.

Starmer’s Last Attack

It would hardly come as a surprise the attack was in response to The Canary’s pro-Palestine sympathies. The UK government has done everything within its not inconsiderable powers to criminalise pro-Palestine, anti-genocide activism, including by scrapping the ancient right to trial by jury. Through its new National Security Law, the outgoing Keir Starmer government seeks to bulldoze literal thought crime legislation into law — in Orwell’s native United Kingdom.

I need to explain something very important to you.

The law that the govt used to arrest me, Section 12(1A) — the first ever use against a journalist — is a very short line. It is vague on purpose. And that is the exact line they have copied into the new "National Security Bill"

— Richard Medhurst (@richimedhurst) July 1, 2026

You can say something that is 100% factual, but if it paints what they deem a "proscribed organization" — even one that has never harmed the UK — in a "good" light, you can get 14 years in prison. (That's also copied from the Terrorism Act).

Anything you say can be twisted.

— Richard Medhurst (@richimedhurst) July 1, 2026

An article in The Canary explains just how dire a threat the new National Security Law poses to journalism and political dissent, describing it as “one last power grab” by Keir Starmer’s outgoing government:

As I am sat here writing this, there’s a sense of terror kicking in. I’m a journalist. It’s my job to be in the know about foreign affairs. At the Canary we pride ourselves on bringing people the news that the mainstream doesn’t dare. But this terror is absolutely nothing compared to what other people must be feeling.

This radicalised weaponisation of new legislation will hit marginalised communities so first and hardest. Journalists and community workers with direct, lived and painful connections to global conflict zones are facing a massive legal trap. If a reporter so much as quotes an entity that the home secretary has designated as a threat, they face immediate prosecution.

Civil liberties groups warn that the law will grant the Home Office absolute power to decide who is allowed to speak. And by leaving the definition of ‘assisting a designated body’ vague, the state has created a total monopoly on the narrative. It’s very much going to be, follow their way and toe the line, or go to jail, it seems.

Indie media outlet Zeteo warned of the severe danger of this new power-grab. The outlet warned that journalists face immediate arrest simply for conducting public interest interviews with banned groups. People will only get one side of the story. There will only be one narrative fed to us… and it will be the government’s.

The timing of Lloyds Bank’s debanking of The Canary is also curious, coming just two months after it announced the launch of a daily left-wing print tabloid — and what’s more, one that defends Palestinian rights. Following an injection of cash last year from used car and property website founder Cecil Hetherington, Canary director Steve Topple hailed the new tabloid as an alternative to the corporate press.

After its debanking, the Canary says it is now in a “financially precarious situation” and does not know when “money that Lloyds is holding will be returned” or how it will affect “our ability to get another bank account in the future”.

“The immediate effect has been that we have been unable to pay any staff or contractors,” Topple told Novara Media. “We have a large team, and all of them are now extremely distressed and in limbo. Many of them are marginalised people and it has hit them very hard. We are trying our best to mitigate the situation and have so far received much-appreciated support from members of the public.”

Lloyds’ actions have already triggered a storm of protests from across the political spectrum.

This is a disgraceful move by @LloydsBank

Be under no illusion, it's an attack on all independent media in UK that doesn't tow the government line

If Lloyds doesn't sort this immediately, a widespread boycott campaign should ensue https://t.co/VbdqcKcI9i

— Matt Kennard (@kennardmatt) July 1, 2026

Corbyn told the Canary that the anti-democratic attempt to silence an independent news site was "a very dangerous road"

Via @skwawkbox https://t.co/rgxQhu6HmI

— Canary (@TheCanaryUK) July 2, 2026

The Canary has been debanked by Lloyds.

Debanking is one of the most pernicious forms of cancellation that an individual or organisation can face — something the FSU is only too familiar with.

Lloyds has provided no explanation for its decision and has not told The Canary when… https://t.co/Y2YKbFC1wu

— The Free Speech Union (@SpeechUnion) June 30, 2026 A Growing Phenomenon

The first major target of debanking in the UK, well over a decade ago, were members of the British Muslim community, particularly those involved in Pro-Palestinian activism. But unlike with Farage, their plight was met with total radio silence in the mainstream media, as the veteran journalist Peter Oborne recounts in the video below.

Peter Oborne Exposes Nigel Farage Banking Bigotry @OborneTweets pic.twitter.com/sir2vSAPlq

— Double Down News (@DoubleDownNews) July 11, 2023

By the time Farage had lost access to Coutts’ banking services, in the summer of 2023, banks in the UK were closing nearly one thousand accounts daily, with just over 343,000 closed in 2022, compared to about 45,000 in 2017.

Following the Farage affair, the Financial Conduct Authority conducted an investigation into banks’ debanking practices, the conclusion of which was that banks had not been closing customers’ accounts for political reasons. Farage described the outcome as “farcical”.

In the US, recent victims of debanking include Scott Ritter, the former United Nations Special Commission (UNSCOM) weapons inspector who is a prominent critic of US and Western imperialism. In January, his bank of 26 years, Citizens’ Bank, closed all of his accounts, including his and his wife’s joint accounts with their daughters, without offering an explanation, as he recounts in the first minutes of the following interview with Judge Napolitano:

In a letter to Ritter Citizens Bank apparently that not only was it under no obligation to divulge the reasons for closing his accounts but that Citizens’ policy actively prevents any disclosure of any information concerning the decision to close the account. As Cato Institute notes, this silent treatment often has to do with confidentiality laws:

However, these are not laws meant to protect the financial privacy of customers. Rather, this confidentiality is to prevent citizens from finding out they are under criminal investigation. For example, reports filed under the Bank Secrecy Act are restricted so heavily that banks cannot share the details of the reports or even admit that a report exists.

While Ritter does not know the exact reasons for his debanking, he suspects that someone in the FBI, fully armed with the “totality of [his] banking transactions”, had “tipped off” Citizens Bank about “suspicious activity” that resulted in Citizens Bank issuing an SAR [Suspicious Activity Report].”

Ritter believes that donations he had received and subsequent cash withdrawals before his three trips to Russia in 2025, which thanks to US and EU sanctions is disconnected from the Western economy, may have triggered the move. According to Ritter, the “purpose of “de-banking” is to harass a targeted individual,” even in the absence of evidence pointing to any criminal activity.”

The reasons for an account closure, while often a mystery to the customers affected, often include operational reasons. Put simply, a financial institution chooses to close the account of a customer because the reputational risks of being associated with that client are simply too high. However, political or ideological motivations appear to play a part in some prominent cases.

The most clear-cut example of this was the Canadian government’s decision, in February 2022, to invoke the emergencies act to compel banks to seize the accounts of the freedom convoy protesters who had blocked several key border crossings. According to the minutes of a meeting between Canada’s Economy Minister, Vice President and WEF board member Chrystia Freeland and senior bank executives the day before the act was invoked, one CEO flagged concerns that if banks were forced to close accounts, it could be seen as the sector “being used as an arm of the government” or even “a political weapon.”

In 2022, Paypal banned the accounts of the UK-based Free Speech Union, its founder Toby Young and his online publication, the Daily Sceptic, for purportedly breaching its policies against hate speech. Worse still, the fintech giant surreptitiously slipped a line into its terms of service granting itself the right to fine customers $2,500 for spreading misinformation. When the news got out, provoking a huge public backlash, PayPal claimed it had all been a big mistake.

Of course, as NC readers EssCetera and Rev Kev pointed out in comments to a previous post, Paypal has a long, storied history of doing this sort of thing, going all the way back to its freezing of Wikileaks’ account in 2010. And banks in the US have been closing down the accounts of workers in the porn industry since at least 2014 as part of “Operation Chokepoint”, which targeted certain undesirable but legal business sectors (h/t Michaelmas).

From “Debanking” to “Civil Death”

If there’s one fate worse than being debanked, it is suffering through the ordeal of “civil death”. Francesca Albanese, the UN Special Rapporteur for the Palestinian occupied territories, became subject to US sanctions roughly a year ago that cut her and her family off not only from US banking but also travel and tech.

In Albanese’s case, it was clear to her why she was being put under constraints normally reserved for narco-barons and terrorists: she had just published a UN report denouncing the more than 60 (largely Western) multinational corporations that are allegedly complicit in, and profiting from, Israel’s military occupation of Gaza.

“This fury [came] because I poked the bear,” she said. “Not in one eye, in both eyes.”

👉 “The moment I pointed to the fact that there are businesses who are profiting from it, yes, I get sanctioned.”

The first UN expert in 80 years to be sanctioned by the U.S. explains why she now faces a U.S. travel ban, frozen accounts, no ability to bank anywhere, cancelled… https://t.co/ia3WLhmyV7

— Drop Site (@DropSiteNews) December 11, 2025

In the clip below, Albanese explains (in French), as she fights back tears, the extent to which she has been barred from participating in basic civil life since the imposition of US sanctions against her:

“I can’t make payments with my working credit card nor can I do transfers; my health insurance has been cancelled, I can’t make hotel reservations… I’m being treated as if I were Pablo Escobar. “

UN official Albanese described financial and insurance restrictions imposed on her following her public statement characterizing Israeli actions as genocide.

"I can't make payments with my working credit card nor can I do transfers; my health insurance has been canceled, I can't… pic.twitter.com/zAH7paGjxm

— HatsOff (@HatsOffff) June 30, 2026

Other victims of civil death, this time at the hands of EU authorities, include the German journalist Hüseyin Doğru and Jacques Baud, a retired Swiss colonel and former senior strategic analyst for NATO. In both cases, the justifications were openly ideological. Baud was accused of of acting as a “mouthpiece” for pro-Russian propaganda and disseminating “conspiracy theories” about the war in Ukraine while Doğru was targeted due to his reporting on Gaza.

In the case of Doğru, both his wife and mother were also targeted with sanctions (h/t vao). In neither case were criminal charges imposed, and because the sanctions are defined as an administrative measure within the EU’s bureaucracy, neither Baud nor Dogru can appeal to a court of law in their respective countries of residence (Belgium and Germany). This is the very definition of Kafkaesque.

Worse still, these sorts of processes could soon be automated almost across the board, as I warned in my 2022 book Scanned:

Combining [central bank] digital currencies with digital IDs while phasing out, or even banning, the use of cash would grant governments and central banks the ability not only to track every purchase we make (and made in the past) but also to determine what we can and cannot spend our money on. They could also prevent certain “undesirable” people from buying anything. Anyone with a blocking notice attached to their digital identity would “thus be unable to do many of the most basic things independently,” says [German financial journalist Norbert] Häring.

Incidentally, the digital euro has already become a de facto legal reality, after the European Parliament (EP)’s economic and monetary affairs committee gave a green light to the eurozone central bank digital currency (CBDC) last week. Presumably, even many members of our highly informed readership will have been unaware of this fact since it all occurred against a wall of near-total media silence.

Tyler Durden Sun, 07/05/2026 - 08:10

Germany's AfD Tricks Thousands Of Antifa Revolutionaries

Germany's right-wing AfD party re-elected co-leaders Alice Weidel and Tino Chrupalla at its annual conference in Erfurt, a central German city. Meanwhile, far-left activists, professional political agitators, and NGOs funded by dark money attempted to restrict access to the event through a coordinated pressure campaign.

BREAKING:

Around 2500 far-left militant Antifa extremists along with 25 000 far-left protesters have arrived in Erfurt to protest against the AfD’s federal party congress.

Journalists from @jungefreiheit and @apollo_news_de have been attacked by Antifa, beaten up and have had… https://t.co/2KAf4R74Zv

— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) July 4, 2026

Der chronologische Zusammenschnitt aller Videos des brutalen Antifa-Angriffs auf die drei Apollo Reporter.

Was dieser Hass-Mob mit Demokratie zu tun hat, diese Frage sollten SPD und Grüne mal beantworten müssen... pic.twitter.com/Tg6MSQSfT7

— Benedikt Brechtken (@ben_brechtken) July 4, 2026

Kurzer Lagebericht – AfD-Bundesparteitag Erfurt

Die Delegierten sind bereits gegen 5 Uhr in der Messehalle angekommen. Die „Antifa“ und das „Widersetzen“-Bündnis haben komplett verschlafen – die Blockaden kamen viel zu spät. Der Saal war früh voll, der Parteitag konnte… pic.twitter.com/W1TudPJNzx

— Petr Bystron (@PetrBystronAfD) July 4, 2026

Local police estimate that around 15,000 far-left activists descended on Erfurt to block roads and prevent AfD members from reaching the convention area. However, as one news outlet pointed out:

AfD tricks Antifa. The motley crew of disheveled youths, chronic unemployed, students of babble studies, and NGO staffers sat on the street starting at 05:30 a.m. to block the AfD's arrival. But the AfD had already arrived an hour and a half earlier in a long convoy under police protection. And while the AfD delegates could leisurely have breakfast and prepare for the party congress that starts at 10 a.m., Antifa is squatting pointlessly on the street. With the AfD, you just get up earlier

AfD trickst Antifa aus.

Die Melange aus verwahrlosten Jugendlichen, Dauerarbeitslosen, Studenten der Geschwätzwissenschaften und NGO-Mitarbeitern saß ab 05.30 Uhr auf der Straße, um die Anreise der AfD zu blockieren.

Die AfD war aber schon eineinhalb Stunden früher in einem… pic.twitter.com/zYS42pZdg7

— GFrei.News (@GFreiNews) July 4, 2026

The conference comes as AfD's growing confidence among the population becomes evident, with the party leading polls ahead of Chancellor Friedrich Merz's conservatives. Recent surveys put AfD support at 29%, compared to about 22% for the CDU/CSU bloc.

"Germany’s AfD is at 28% in national polls, the most popular party, and 41% in an eastern state where an election will be held in September: add the far left, and populism is >50% of the electorate. There appear few stable German political coalitions that exclude the AfD" - Rabo

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) May 11, 2026

Weidel and Chrupalla used their speeches to attack mainstream parties, blast globalists, and sharpen their anti-immigration message.

AfD became the second-largest party in last year's elections, with its influence growing amid mounting public frustration with liberals and their failed globalist policies, whether nation-killing open-border migration, de-growth climate policies, or other progressive policies that are ruining the West. 

Tyler Durden Sun, 07/05/2026 - 07:35

Multicultural French Crowds Brawl Over Discount Air Conditioners As Heatwave Looms

Via Remix News,

France was gripped by chaos on Thursday, July 2, 2026, as an exceptional sale of discounted air conditioners at Lidl descended into long lines, emptied shelves, and physical fights between customers nationwide. The retailer had put 200,000 units up for sale — nowhere near enough to meet demand as yet another heatwave looms next week following a record-breaking heatwave just last week.

Videos of the various incidents went viral across social media.

In Lyon, a youth was seen ripping an air conditioner from a woman while they tussled on the ground. He then proceeded to push her back multiple times.

🇫🇷🔴A multicultural youth steals an air conditioner from a woman in a Lidl supermarket in Lyon, France.

Lidl launched a sale of 200,000 air conditioners as yet another heatwave looms for France.

Demand was far higher and mass brawls were seen across France in the discount… pic.twitter.com/ChcNOjOiUM

— Remix News & Views (@RMXnews) July 2, 2026

In another video, a large brawl broke out between numerous women, including women in headscarves.

🇫🇷Violent brawls break out over air conditioners and fans during a large sale in France's Lidl supermarket.

Follow: @RMXnews pic.twitter.com/RnZqvf6XrP

— Remix News & Views (@RMXnews) July 2, 2026

Overall, the situation was quite chaotic in numerous locations.

🇫🇷🔴Diverse crowds brawled across France over cheap air conditioners after a record-breaking heatwave.

Lidl supermarket launched a sale on 200,000 air conditioners but demand was far higher than supply in the end.

The end result was chaos in many stores.

Follow: @RMXnews pic.twitter.com/9OJYwzMWcZ

— Remix News & Views (@RMXnews) July 2, 2026

“Lidl France deplores the incidents that occurred in its stores,” the retailer told AFP in response, acknowledging that its employees “had to manage tensions, in a sometimes difficult climate.” The company attributed the shortages to “the sales cycle of [its] products,” explaining: “Products ordered one year in advance and arrive on Thursdays in our supermarkets, always at a fixed price.”

The chain had also tried to defuse tension with humor on social media, responding to a post about a fight over a Lidl air conditioner with a meme referencing Game of Thrones. But the levity didn’t stop clashes from breaking out at multiple Lidl locations across the country, including in Rennes and Nanterre.

In Nanterre, around a hundred people gathered according to BFMTV. A line began forming at 7:30 a.m. even though the store didn’t open until 8:30 a.m.  The news outlet described that the doors then “collapsed” under pressure from the crowd trying to make their way into the store. It further noted that “fights broke out between several people over the ten air conditions that were available.”

A similar scene played out in Paris, where crowd were largely good-natured, according to Agence France-Presse (AFP), though altercations still broke out among customers trying to cut ahead.

In Hazebrouck, in northern France, journalists from La Voix du Nord reported that there were only four air conditioning units available for around 60 customers. Le Parisien documented similar crowd scenes at several Lidl stores across the Île-de-France region, while Ouest-France reported that police also had to intervene in Trélazé and near Angers, where the situation escalated as soon as one store opened.

The Lidl frenzy is just the latest flashpoint in a broader rush on fans and air conditioners across France and neighboring countries as the country braces for another heatwave forecast by Météo France. Many residents are eager to avoid a repeat of the extreme heat seen at the end of June — and lines had already been forming at stores selling air conditioners, fans, and even survival or cooling blankets in Meudon in the preceding weeks.

Belgium saw a nearly identical episode at Aldi, where a promotional sale of air conditioners priced at 145 euros similarly spiraled into disorder, with customers wrestling units out of each other’s hands.

Other major French retailers have faced the same surge in demand. Fnac Darty CEO Enrique Martinez told BFM Business that “people were waiting outside the stores from 4 a.m.” during the heatwave, and that “some came to blows.” He added that “the teams worked hard to serve everyone and bring in as much equipment as possible” from warehouses.

At Leclerc, the numbers tell a similar story. “We sold 700,000 fans and coolers in three weeks” — an increase of almost 200 percent, Michel-Édouard Leclerc said Thursday on TF1. “We sold nearly 60,000 air conditioners, that’s also more than 35 percent [more].” He added: “We still have some left. Now it’s distribution problems to take into account population movements with ‘departures on vacation.'”

Read more here...

Tyler Durden Sun, 07/05/2026 - 07:00

What Happened To The 56 Signatories Of The Declaration Of Independence

Authored by Joseph Lord via The Epoch Times,

Today the United States celebrates the 250th - or semiquincentennial - anniversary of the adoption of the Declaration of Independence.

Congress voting on the Declaration of Independence. Library of Congress/Public Domain

While July 4 marks the day Thomas Jefferson's revised draft of the Declaration of Independence was adopted, it would take months for the document to be signed by all 56 men who would eventually affix their names to it.

Several key figures in American history - George Washington, Alexander Hamilton, and James Madison, among others - don't appear among the signatories of the Declaration of Independence at all, having been serving in military roles or other capacities at the time.

None of the 56 signers died as a result of their signature, but before the war was over, five would be captured, 12 would have their homes destroyed, and 17 would lose their entire fortunes. None of the 56 signatories ever renounced the cause of independence of their own free will.

Here's what happened to the men who pledged "our Lives, our Fortunes and our sacred Honor" to the cause of American independence, on the basis of "self-evident ... Truths" that not even a global empire - or a king - could deny.

'The Sage Of Monticello': Thomas Jefferson

Easily the most well-known of the Declaration's signatories - as well as its author - Thomas Jefferson enjoyed several benefits later in life from his role in the document's drafting.

During the war, Jefferson nearly faced capture by the British during his tenure as governor of Virginia, forcing him to flee from his Monticello estate. That led to accusations of "cowardice" that eventually prompted Virginia legislators to launch a formal inquiry, in which Jefferson was acquitted.

Later, Jefferson served in a series of key posts, first as the U.S. ambassador to France, then as secretary of state under President George Washington and vice president under President John Adams.

After he was elected president - an event dubbed the "Revolution of 1800" - Jefferson's egalitarian vision expressed in the Declaration of Independence came to be viewed as one of the most critical documents of the American founding.

'The First American': Ben Franklin

While Jefferson often gets the lion's share of the credit for drafting the Declaration, Ben Franklin is credited with one critical edit to the document.

Widely recognized as a multi-disciplinary polymath, Franklin has been dubbed "the First American" by history for his early and long-running calls for American colonial unity.

In the preamble to the Declaration, Jefferson had originally written, "We hold these truths to be sacred and undeniable."

Franklin - who served on the drafting committee - replaced this with the revision: "We hold these truths to be self-evident."

Franklin later served as ambassador to France and lead negotiator on the deal to end the war with Great Britain, was the "president" - or governor - of Pennsylvania from 1785 to 1788, and served as a delegate to the Constitutional Convention of 1787.

Shortly before his death in 1790, Franklin made his last political statement with his support of a petition calling on the federal government to abolish slavery.

'The Atlas Of American Independence': John Adams

John Adams, the future second president, was one of the first delegates to the Continental Congress to call for independence. He was also among the most outspoken in its defense, leading him to be dubbed by some as "the Atlas of American Independence."

In February 1778, Adams was nearly captured by British warships while leaving on a diplomatic mission for Paris with his son. Adams took up a musket to fight the British vessels, but it took a mix of skillful navigation and a fortuitous storm to shake the pursuers. Had he been captured, Adams likely would have faced imprisonment in the Tower of London and execution for treason.

In one of the most remarkable coincidences in history, Adams and Jefferson both died on July 4, 1826 - 50 years after the Declaration's adoption day. Adams's final words, "Jefferson still lives," were in fact mistaken: the third president had passed away at Monticello hours earlier.

'The First Founding Father': Richard Henry Lee

Less well-known than either Jefferson or Adams, the Virginia delegate Richard Henry Lee was no less instrumental in bringing about independence, authoring the part of the Declaration stating the 13 colonies "are, and of Right ought to be, free and independent States."

On July 2, 1776, the Second Continental Congress adopted this "Lee Resolution." Adams famously predicted incorrectly that July 2, rather than July 4, would be celebrated as the American Independence Day, and would be commemorated with, "pomp and parade ... from one end of this continent to the other."

During the war, Lee faced military attacks on his property, chronic stress that took a toll on his health, and a severe hit to his finances as the war hit international shipping and the tobacco trade he relied on.

He later served as the first Virginia senator alongside William Grayson, joining the anti-Federalists in opposing a national government. Lee died in June 1794 at age 62.

The Midnight Rider: Caesar Rodney

A lesser-known but critical signatory of the Declaration was Caesar Rodney, who rode 80 miles to Philadelphia while suffering from facial cancer to cast a tie-breaking vote for Delaware's delegation in favor of independence.

Unanimous support from all colonies was required to authorize the Lee Resolution - meaning Rodney's vote was critical to final adoption.

Rodney later served as "president," or governor, of Delaware until 1781, and died in 1784 of facial cancer at age 55.

The First Signer: John Hancock

John Hancock's signature on the Declaration - the first - was so large that his name became an American idiom for one's signature.

The Massachusetts revolutionary leader had been serving as president of the Second Continental Congress since May 24, 1775.

Hancock, aside from being the first signer, is the only person who actually signed the document on July 4, 1776.

Hancock was at the head of a massive commercial empire, deriving his wealth partially from inheritance and partially from smuggling. Had American independence failed, Hancock - as well as his family - would have lost everything.

Despite close calls, he made it through the Revolution without facing capture. However, several of his properties were destroyed or occupied by the British during the conflict, while Hancock expended nearly half of his personal wealth financing the cause of independence.

He later served as the first governor of independent Massachusetts, and died in 1793 at 56.

The Last Signer: Thomas McKean

Like several other delegates to the Second Continental Congress, Thomas McKean of Delaware left to join the Revolution as soon as he cast his ballot in favor of independence.

This meant that he was ultimately unable to sign the documents until months - or, by some estimates, years - later. While historians are confident that McKean is the final signatory, the exact date is disputed, with estimates ranging from early 1777 all the way to 1781.

McKean took part in key battles during the conflict, assisting in the defense of New York City and Delaware. By 1781, McKean was serving as president of the Continental Congress, making him the civilian authority directing the Battle of Yorktown, which ended the war.

After the Revolution, McKean served as chief justice and governor of Pennsylvania. During the War of 1812, he led a civilian defense group against the British, taking up arms one final time before his death in 1817 at the age of 83.

The One Who Renounced His Signature: Richard Stockton

While none of the 56 signers ever willingly renounced their support for the Declaration, historians think that signer Richard Stockton of New Jersey renounced his signature under coercion and following a long period of captivity by the British.

Imprisoned by the British, Stockton signed a parole agreement in which he reneged on his signature and pledged not to take part in the war. Under the agreement, Stockton resigned his seat in the Continental Congress.

Later, Stockton reaffirmed his loyalty to the United States before his death at age 50 in 1781.

The Fighters

Like McKean, several signers went on to take part in the conflict.

These included Rodney, Oliver Wolcott of Connecticut, Thomas Nelson Jr. of Virginia, and William Floyd of New York.

Others who left Philadelphia to join the conflict were taken as prisoners of war during the Revolution.

One of these was George Walton, who was wounded and captured during the Battle of Savannah. Despite spending months in British custody, Walton survived and was eventually freed, going on to serve as a governor, chief justice, and U.S. senator for Georgia.

Three others - Thomas Heyward Jr., Arthur Middleton, and Edward Rutledge - were taken prisoner during the Battle of Charleston. All three survived months of captivity at St. Augustine, Florida, with Heyward becoming the last of the three to die at age 62 in 1809.

Homes Looted, Occupied, Or Destroyed

Many other signers faced consequences related to their properties and estates. Some of the most prominent of these included Lee and Hancock.

In New York, meanwhile, signer Francis Lewis had his property destroyed by the British, who captured his wife during the attack. Held in captivity for months without a change of clothes or adequate food, Elizabeth Annesley Lewis was ultimately freed under a prisoner exchange negotiated by Washington, but died shortly thereafter from the stress of the ordeal.

Also in New York, signers William Floyd, Philip Livingston, and Lewis Morris had their vast estates occupied by the British during the war, with the properties being used as barracks or stables.

Signer John Hart of New Jersey was also forced to flee from his home - and his wife's deathbed - when Hessian troops attacked his farm and mills.

The Longest-Lived Signer: Charles Carroll

In 1832, Charles Carroll of Maryland knew that he was dying.

The only Catholic signer of the Declaration, Carroll had by then been the sole remaining signatory of the document for around six years.

He gained the accolade on July 4, 1826, following the deaths of Adams and Jefferson, who were among the final three living signers. Franklin had passed more than 40 years earlier.

By 1832, Carroll was well-used to the questions he received from young people and reporters, who were set on preserving as much of the early Republic as possible during the twilight years of the 1820s.

Before his death, Carroll played a key role in welcoming the new era of American life, laying the first stone of the B&O railroad, one of the first steps toward the transcontinental railroad that would take decades yet to be completed.

Carroll's passing was commemorated in the papers and on the streets of the blossoming American republic, whose citizens recognized that with Carroll's passing, the first generation of the United States was truly over.

Commenting on his status near the end of his life, Carroll wrote, "Grateful to Almighty God for the blessings. ... I do hereby recommend to the present and future generations the principles of that important document ... and pray that the civil and religious liberties they have secured to my country may be perpetuated."

Tyler Durden Sat, 07/04/2026 - 23:20