Zero Rss

Katz Says Israel Could Be Back At War With Iran 'Tomorrow'

Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,

Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz said on Monday that the Israeli military was ready to restart the war against Iran and that it could happen as soon as "tomorrow".

Katz vowed that Israel would bomb Beirut's southern suburb of Dahiyeh if Hezbollah rockets were fired into northern Israel and that the IDF was prepared to respond if that prompted Iranian attacks on northern Israel.

Katz visiting Israeli troops in southern Lebanon on February 2, 2025. Israeli Defense Ministry photo

"There is no reality in which Israel will not respond to an Iranian attack," Katz said, according to Israel Hayom. "The equation stands – rocket fire on Israeli communities means an immediate assault on the Dahiyeh. The possibility exists that Iran will attack Israel not only in response to strikes in the Dahieh. We could find ourselves at war with Iran tomorrow."

The Israeli minister said that a second potential scenario that would lead to a renewed war with Iran would be if President Trump decides to restart the bombing campaign.

"There are two scenarios that would resume full-scale fighting – a decision by President Donald Trump or Iranian missile fire. This could happen in two days," he said.

Katz also insisted that Israel was ready to fight Iran on its own, which he called a "blue and white operation," despite the fact that Israel is extremely reliant on US air defenses.

"The IDF is just waiting for it. We have selected targets to strike in Iran, and the IDF is prepared and alert, but we will not interfere with the US President’s current moves vis-a-vis the Iranians," he said.

Katz also boasted about the destruction of Shia Muslim villages in southern Lebanon. "It was clear during Operation Silver Plow that the Shia villages along the contact line had to disappear," he said, using the codename for Israel’s recent operations in southern Lebanon.

'Israel is preparing for the immediate resumption of military operations against Iran.'

Senior Middle East Correspondent @ariel_oseran joins @benitalevin on #TheRundown pic.twitter.com/8c7YfNgaMP

— i24NEWS English (@i24NEWS_EN) June 30, 2026

"We are currently in a situation where there is nearly 100% destruction in the contact-line villages of the western and central sectors. In the eastern sector, we are at 73% of villages destroyed," Katz added.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/30/2026 - 15:40

Trading Giant Susquehanna Lost Over $70 Million To Mystery Insider Traders

Trading giant Susquehanna Investment Group said it was attempting to unmask the identities of individuals it claims made at least $100 million trading on inside information about a Chinese government crackdown on cross-border brokerages last month.

The Pennsylvania-based market-maker, which says it was the counterparty on most of the alleged insider trades, sued 100 John Doe defendants in Manhattan federal court on Monday. Susquehanna is seeking to recover more than $70 million it says it lost to what it believes is one of the largest insider-trading schemes in recent memory, Bloomberg reported.

While it’s unusual for a major Wall Street firm to sue as a victim of insider trading - which is normally policed by the Securities and Exchange Commission and federal prosecutors - in suing the dozens of unknown traders, aka "John Does", Susquehanna is using a tactic sometimes employed by the SEC to seek information it hopes will identify the alleged insider traders.

According to Susquehanna, many of the trades were made from accounts at Interactive Brokers Group Inc., as well as the platforms of two firms targeted in the Chinese crackdown, Futu Holdings and Up Fintech’s Tiger Brokers (we discussed this in May in "China Launches Crackdown On Cross-Border Stock Selling To Block Capital Outflows").

Susquehanna is seeking an order freezing certain accounts at those brokerages and authorizing subpoenas of them.

Susquehanna, which is one of the largest US market-makers and is active in options, stocks, energy, bonds and foreign exchange markets, said in an SEC filing that its equity positions in the first quarter totaled more than $893 billion. The closely held company based in the Philadelphia suburbs has made its co-founder Jeff Yass one of the richest people in the world with a fortune estimated at $92 billion, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.

Susquehanna’s allegations focus on 200,000 short-dated put option bets placed in the two weeks before the Chinese government’s May 22 announcement that it would punish firms helping mainland Chinese clients illegally invest overseas. The statement was released by eight regulators, including the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the central bank and the public security ministry.

Almost simultaneously, regulators released a statement singling out Futu, Tiger and the unlisted Long Bridge Securities for operating in China without onshore licenses. Futu and Up Fintech’s shares plummeted in response.

In its suit, Susquehanna alleges several accounts engaged in a pattern of “high risk, high reward trading” designed to take advantage of the projected drops. In one example, a trader purchased the option to sell Futu shares at $102.45 — down from $124.58 — up to a week after the Chinese government’s announcement.

There was “powerful evidence” the traders were using material non-public information to inform their well-timed bets, Susquehanna alleges. It said the tips could have come from Chinese securities regulators or personnel at Futu or Up Fintech.

The traders collectively purchased $12 million in options, yielding a profit of more than $100 million and a return of more than 900%.

“By way of comparison, Raj Rajaratnam’s infamous insider trading scheme at Galleon Management yielded only approximately $53 million in profits,” Susquehanna said in its complaint, referring to the hedge fund manager convicted in 2011.

According to Bloomberg, the alleged insider traders’ use of Interactive Brokers could prove awkward for that firm. The suit doesn’t accuse Interactive Brokers of wrongdoing, but founder Thomas Peterffy, also one of the world’s richest men with an estimated $104 billion fortune, is an outspoken supporter of legalizing insider trading.

“I’m in favor of not having any rules against insider trading. I would like all the information out there as soon as it’s available,” he said in an recent interview on Bloomberg. “Because look, as a society, we are better off knowing as soon as possible anything that is knowable.”

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/30/2026 - 15:00

Here We Go Again: Taiwan Raids Super Micro In AI Chip Probe

Taiwan has intensified its efforts to stop advanced AI hardware from reaching China, carrying out raids at the local offices of Super Micro Computer and several businesses connected to an investigation into the movement of servers equipped with NVIDIA chips, according to Bloomberg.

Investigators searched multiple business locations and the homes of six individuals as part of the inquiry. While prosecutors did not publicly identify those involved, a source familiar with the matter said Super Micro's Taiwan office was among the locations searched. The company said it is fully cooperating with investigators and emphasized that it works to safeguard its technology and ensure its products are sold in compliance with applicable laws. Shares fell about 8% following the announcement.

Bloomberg writes that the probe also reached Chief Telecom and Albatron Technology. Both companies acknowledged the searches, saying day-to-day operations were unaffected, although Albatron's shares dropped sharply.

The case marks another step in Taiwan's broader campaign to prevent restricted AI technology from being diverted to China. Earlier this year, authorities arrested three suspects accused of using fraudulent export paperwork involving Super Micro servers loaded with Nvidia AI processors. Officials believe at least one shipment ultimately made its way to China through Japan, while dozens of additional servers were intercepted before they could leave Taiwan.

Taiwan currently lacks a law that specifically criminalizes exporting AI chips to China, limiting prosecutors to pursuing related offenses such as document fraud. Lawmakers are now considering tougher export rules that would make such shipments illegal and give authorities stronger enforcement powers as Taiwan moves to more closely mirror U.S. restrictions on advanced semiconductor technology.

The latest developments also add to the uncertainty surrounding Super Micro.

Ever since Hindenburg Research published its report less than two years ago, "Super Micro: Fresh Evidence Of Accounting Manipulation, Sibling Self-Dealing And Sanctions Evasion At This AI High Flyer," the company has struggled to shake a steady stream of damaging headlines.

The short seller accused Super Micro of accounting irregularities, undisclosed related-party transactions involving family members, export control concerns, and other governance failures, allegations the company has disputed.

Since then, Super Micro has faced delayed financial filings, scrutiny from regulators and most recently one of its co-founders charged in a scheme to divert roughly $2.5 billion in advanced Nvidia chips to China, according to an indictment unsealed earlier this year.

SMCI is the infinite money glitch of fraud https://t.co/KsQ6bDtinh

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) June 29, 2026 Tyler Durden Tue, 06/30/2026 - 14:45

Trump Threatens 'Big Problems' For Gasoline Retailers If They Don't Cut Prices

Authored by Tom Ozimek via The Epoch Times,

President Donald Trump on Tuesday demanded that gasoline retailers immediately lower prices at the pump, warning of “big problems” if they fail to pass along the benefits of falling crude oil prices to consumers.

In an early-morning post on Truth Social, Trump said gasoline prices remain too high despite U.S. crude oil trading at about $68 a barrel and continuing to decline.

“Gasoline Retailers must get their Prices down, IMMEDIATELY!” Trump wrote.

“They’re too high considering that Oil is now at $68 a Barrel, and heading south.”

[ZH: Perhaps Mr. Trump does not fully realize that it takes time for the energy supply chain to ripple down to pump prices]

He urged retailers to “start targeting around the $2.50 a Gallon number,” while accusing some stations of price gouging.

Price gouging “is totally illegal,” Trump wrote, adding that if gas stations don’t lower prices at the pump, “big problems lie ahead!”

Trump also singled out California, saying the state should reduce gasoline taxes that he argued are inflating prices for drivers.

“Soon the Tax will be higher than the Product itself,” he wrote, adding that Californians were being “abused” by their state government.

Trump’s warning comes less than a week after he said he had directed the Department of Justice to investigate whether gasoline retailers and oil companies were failing to lower pump prices in line with the sharp decline in crude oil prices following the U.S.–Iran ceasefire agreement.

At the time, Trump accused companies of “gouging” consumers and said retail gasoline prices were not falling quickly enough despite crude prices dropping “like a rock.”

[ZH: lower gas prices correlate well with higher approval ratings for Trump (and vice versa)...]

Gas Prices Continue to Ease

National gasoline prices have been trending lower in recent weeks as global oil markets stabilized following the easing of tensions in the Middle East.

According to the American Automobile Association (AAA), the national average price for regular gasoline stood at $3.91 per gallon on June 29, marking the fifth consecutive weekly decline and the second straight week below $4 per gallon.

The average was down from nearly $4 a week earlier and more than 50 cents lower than one month ago, when drivers were paying about $4.51 per gallon.

AAA said declining crude oil prices and improving fuel supplies have helped push prices lower, although demand is expected to rise as a record number of Americans prepare to travel over the Independence Day holiday weekend.

The U.S.–Iran conflict disrupted crude supplies in the Persian Gulf, driving prices to multi-year highs.

However, since the United States and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding on June 17, agreeing to extend a ceasefire to give room for negotiations on a lasting peace deal and reopen the Strait of Hormuz to shipping, oil benchmarks have fallen sharply from peaks above $126 per barrel for Brent and nearly $120 for West Texas Intermediate (WTI).

After five straight monthly increases, analysts have cut their 2026 oil price forecasts for the first time since the Iran war began, following the U.S.–Iran deal reopening the Strait of Hormuz and easing concerns over prolonged supply disruptions.

A monthly Reuters survey of 31 economists and analysts forecast Brent crude would average $84.50 per barrel in 2026, versus $90.44 projected last month. WTI was seen averaging $79.49 per barrel, down from May’s projection of $84.63.

However, some analysts said that lingering geopolitical risks mean that the potential remains for crude prices to rebound.

“We believe that the market is being too optimistic over the speed of the supply recovery as well as its sustainability,” Warren Patterson, ING’s head of Commodities Strategy, wrote in a Monday note.

“Furthermore, we have seen a significant tightening in global oil inventories since the start of the conflict, which leaves the market more vulnerable relative to the pre-war environment.”

Some energy experts have said that gasoline prices typically do not fall as quickly as crude oil prices due to factors such as delays in refining, transportation, and distribution.

Chevron chief financial officer Eimear Bonner said last week that lower crude prices should eventually translate into cheaper gasoline for consumers but noted that the process takes time.

“There is a lag between ... reductions in oil prices and when that shows up at the pump,“ she told CNBC on June 25. ”But we expect that prices will come down as things continue to normalize.”

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/30/2026 - 14:25

JPMorgan Backs US Crypto Bill, But Puts Warning Label Front & Center As Senate Eyes August Deadline

Authored by Micah Zimmerman via BitcoinMagazine.com,

JPMorgan threw its support behind federal digital asset legislation Monday, but the bank’s message to Congress was as much a caution as an endorsement: get the framework right, or risk recreating the financial vulnerabilities regulation was designed to prevent.

In a joint op-ed, Umar Farooq, global co-head of JPMorgan Payments, and Peter Muriungi, CEO of Digital Assets and Blockchain Solutions, argued that the United States has a genuine opportunity to lead in digital finance — provided lawmakers pair regulatory clarity with durable safeguards. 

The piece arrived as the Senate race to advance the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act before its August recess, with negotiators still working through sticking points on stablecoin yield provisions, ethics rules for government officials with crypto ties, and liability protections for decentralized finance developers.

“Regulatory clarity matters only if paired with durable safeguards,” Farooq and Muriungi wrote. “Clarity with gaps or loopholes can push activity into lightly supervised channels and weaken long-standing protections.”

The op-ed stands out less for what it celebrates than for what it warns against. Rather than leading with the promise of tokenization and programmable money, the executives spent much of their argument flagging how crypto innovation could go wrong without proper guardrails.

JPMorgan’s take on stablecoins, blockchain

On market structure, JPMorgan’s position was blunt: the blockchain on which a product is issued does not change its economic function. Assets that look and behave like securities should face disclosure, custody, and market integrity rules. 

Decentralized trading platforms that operate like brokers or exchanges should be held to the same standards. Tokenization, the executives argued, should improve how markets operate, not serve as a mechanism for bypassing the rules that have made U.S. capital markets the most trusted in the world.

The bank reserved particular focus for stablecoins, where JPMorgan sees both commercial opportunity and competitive threat. Stablecoins and tokenized deposits could enable faster settlement and reduce friction in cross-border payments, Farooq and Muriungi wrote. 

But when those products offer yield-like incentives or hold balances without meeting bank-level capital, liquidity, and consumer-protection standards, payments innovation becomes shadow banking by another name.

Features such as rewards or cashback on held balances lead many consumers to assume the product carries familiar protections. When it does not, the result is heightened run risk — a concentrated vulnerability that surfaces in the worst moments. 

JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon has been among the banking industry’s loudest voices on the issue. “The banks will not accept it,” Dimon said last month, vowing to fight stablecoin yield provisions in the Clarity Act “down to the wire.”

The executives also pressed for strong anti-money laundering and law enforcement tools across the digital asset ecosystem. Broad exemptions for infrastructure that processes core transactions, they argued, can enable opaque arrangements that shield true ownership — a risk for both national security and market integrity.

The op-ed did not arrive without commercial context. Also Monday, JPMorgan announced the expansion of its Kinexys blockchain payments platform to eight currencies, adding the Australian dollar, Hong Kong dollar, Japanese yen, Chinese renminbi, and Singapore dollar to a system that already supports the U.S. dollar, euro, and British pound.

The platform has processed more than $4 trillion in transactions to date, with average daily volume exceeding $7 billion. Payoneer and Japanese energy trader JERA Global Markets are among the first clients using the new currency accounts.

Kinexys earlier this year also launched JPM Coin, a deposit token designed to give institutional clients near-instant, 24/7 settlement without stepping outside the regulated banking system. The token runs on a permissioned blockchain network operated by J.P. Morgan, where client deposits are represented digitally and transfers settle within the network rather than on public rails.

Earlier this week, Fidelity wrote that Bitcoin’s current crypto winter could end if one or more major catalysts emerge, including the continuation of the four-year halving cycle, clearer crypto regulation, Federal Reserve rate cuts, a new breakout crypto use case, or a fresh wave of institutional adoption. 

While none of these factors are guaranteed, the bank argued that history suggests major bull markets have often followed similar shifts in supply dynamics, policy, macro conditions, and investor demand.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/30/2026 - 14:05

Blackstone Sells Stake In Three Virginia Data Centers Amid Grassroot Outrage

Up until now, when it comes to real estate, Blackstone was best known in recent years for dumping many of its trophy office properties - which in the aftermath of work from home never recovered their projected cash flow potential - at a huge discount. Now, it may be pulling a page from its old, pre-Lehman playbook  by calling the top in yet another commercial real estate segment: data centers. 

According to Bloomberg, Blackstone is selling its stakes in a trio of data centers across Northern Virginia for $3.5 billion, cashing out of part of a bet it made less than three years ago.

Digital Realty Trust will pay $1.2 billion of cash and offer $2.3 billion of its shares to Blackstone funds, the firms said in a statement Monday. In exchange, the data center company will acquire Blackstone’s 80% interest in two 96-megawatt data centers in Manassas, Virginia, and a 50% interest in a 96-megawatt center in nearby Sterling.

The assets involved in this week’s sale were part of a joint venture that Blackstone announced it would set up with Digital Realty in 2023 as it sought to get ahead in the AI arms race that has engulfed Wall Street in recent years. Blackstone and Digital Realty will continue to work together on their remaining data center investments located elsewhere in Northern Virginia as well as in Paris and Frankfurt. 

“We have developed a strong partnership with Blackstone,” Greg Wright, Digital Realty CEO, said in the statement. “This transaction reflects the next phase of that relationship, allowing us to increase our ownership in a portfolio of fully leased, high-quality hyperscale assets.”

It does. The question is why did Blackstone decide to pull the cord now, just as fresh doubts are creeping whether the Mag 7s will continue funding the AI expansion with virtually unlimited capex.

As part of Wall Street’s broader push into data centers, investment has poured into Northern Virginia, which is considered the country’s largest data center market, and is better known as "Data Center Alley".

That includes Digital Gateway, an ambitious plan for a 2,100-acre corridor in the region that would house as many as 37 data-center buildings. 

Data center developers eyeing that land have faced strident opposition. Compass Datacenters, backed by Brookfield Asset Management, recently pulled out of a yearslong effort to build a key part of the development after facing intense pushback from local residents.  Blackstone’s QTS is also fighting in court to salvage a similarly sized development on adjacent parcels.

The increasingly vocal political and grassroots pushback against new data center construction may explain why Blackstone is getting cold feet just as the AI bubble is peaking.  A recent Gallup poll found that 7 in 10 Americans oppose constructing data centers for artificial intelligence in their local area, including nearly half, 48%, who are strongly opposed. Barely a quarter favor these projects, with 7% strongly in favor.

Half of opponents mention data centers’ excessive use of resources, including 18% each mentioning their use of water and energy. Sixteen percent mention a related environmental concern of pollution, including noise pollution and air and water pollution.

About one in five opponents are concerned with the impact on local quality of life, including increased population, increased traffic and preferring that the land be used for other purposes. A similar share mention potentially negative economic consequences, including higher utility bills, cost-of-living increases, and the cost of building the data centers (which could involve the use of taxpayer funds).

Most of the remaining opposition stems from general or specific concerns about artificial intelligence.

Blackstone, which manages more than $1.3 trillion, bills itself as the largest global provider of data centers, and also owns some of the utilities that power them. It acquired QTS in 2021 and bought Australian computing provider AirTrunk in 2024. In May, the firm held an initial public offering for Blackstone Digital Infrastructure Trust Inc., its data center acquisition vehicle, which aims to buy already built and leased properties benefiting from the artificial intelligence boom.

The firm has more than $150 billion of data center assets, and it has identified an additional $160 billion worth of opportunities for its pipeline, CEO Steve Schwarzman said in April.  

Affiliates of Blackstone are already selling the Digital Realty equity they’re set to receive from this week’s deal, which is expected to be completed Tuesday. They’re offering the stock at as much as a 2.9% discount to Monday’s closing price of $190.58, Bloomberg reported citing people familiar.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/30/2026 - 13:25

Apollo Chief Economist Delivers Scathing Rebuke Of AI, Finds Zero Margin Boost Outside Of Tech

In his market note published this morning, Apollo's chief economist Torsten Slok delivers a scathing review of the failure of AI to boost profit margins outside of tech... which of course is what AI is supposed to do since it is meant to boost productivity across the entire economy, not just a select group of chipmakers. 

As Slok shows in the chart below, so far there are no signs of profit margins rising outside the tech sector. He notes that "this is ultimately what we are waiting for, because the value of AI companies today rests entirely on the promise that margins in the S&P 493 will eventually climb."

As Slok notes, the promise of higher margins for all is the link to current (soaring) market prices, since implicit in the valuations of AI companies are assumptions about future earnings. That's why the current debate about token costs, model routing and token marketplaces is important. If token costs converge toward zero for most AI use cases, then there is not enough revenue for all hyperscalers even in a situation where compute demand surges higher, Slok cautions stomping all over the now traditional "but Jevon's paradox" counterargument. (for more discussion, Slok recommends reading this piece from his colleagues in Apollo Thematic Investing).

Going back to the matter at hand, the key issue is the length of the ROI runway outside the tech sector. In a handful of sectors, software and tech above all, implementation is nearly immediate, since these firms can fold AI into their own products and processes overnight (ironically, it is the same software sector that has been crushed in 2026 due to doubts over the terminal values of ventures which may well be made obsolete by the same AI that is meant to boost their margins).

But that is the exception. Across most of the economy, and especially in capital-intensive, heavily regulated sectors, deep process re-engineering and data governance requirements could delay structural productivity gains well beyond what the market currently projects. The list of slow-moving sectors is long, spanning health care, banking and insurance, energy and utilities, defense and aerospace, pharma and life sciences, manufacturing, transportation and logistics, construction and real estate, education, legal and the public sector.

This, according to Slok, creates a dangerous divergence between aggressive, front-loaded valuations today and a much slower cash flow reality, since equity markets priced for instant earnings growth will face a painful repricing if the productivity hockey-stick takes five years rather than five months.

Put differently, companies will slow their AI spending if they don't see ROI quickly, and the current focus on token optimization is an early warning that AI implementation could be a bumpier, slower road than expected.

Slok's bottom line is that a mismatch between current earnings expectations and the actual time firms need to generate ROI on AI investments could have significant implications for many AI company valuations today

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/30/2026 - 13:00

Oman Is Playing Word Games On Iranian Tolls Through Strait: 'Service, Environmental Fees'

Iran has remained on message in the last several weeks despite a few serious flare-ups in tit-for-tat fighting and missile and drone exchanges with US forces, also including Iranian strikes on at least two foreign shipping vessels which refused to heed Tehran's 'rules'.

Hormuz will not return to its pre-war status, Iranian officials insist, even as negotiations are still happening, but are stalled in terms of direct interactions with the American delegation led by Witkoff and Kushner in Qatar. Tehran’s position is that US-Israeli war on Iran forever changed the rules of passage. Safe navigation can no longer be treated as a free service, when Iranian infrastructure is threatened, Tehran has maintained.

The Iranians have been in high level talks with Oman, the coast on the other side of the Hormuz chokepoint passageway, even while Washington brings immense pressure on its southern Arabian ally not to comply - threatening punishment and repercussions.

via Reuters

Concerning the (nuanced, shall we say) Omani position, its Foreign Minister Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi has sought to clarify in a new interview that the Sultanate opposes imposing transit fees on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, saying it will uphold international maritime law.

However, it seems Oman is still largely in Iran's corner when it comes to jointly collecting "fees" of some kind, and like with much that we've seen of Iran-focused international statements and negotiations, some word games are being played - and wrangling over definitions:

FM Al-Busaidi said Oman opposes tolls on transit itself, which he said are “prohibited” under international law, but drew a “clear distinction between transit fees and maritime, environmental, and navigational services that may be discussed voluntarily with the benefiting states and companies,” the same distinction Iran has invoked to justify proposed “service fees.”

So the word "toll" might be nixed and replaced by talk of "environmental" and "navigational services" fees. It's akin to hotels in various Western cities charging hidden and ambiguous "city" and an "admin/hotel tax" or other ambiguous hard to nail down "fees" - which are often hefty and leave patrons confused and outraged.

The Omani FM claimed that Oman and Iran have agreed that any future arrangements for the strait will remain within international law and the "rights" of the coastal states. So clear enough 'legal loopholes' are being established here - enough to drive a truck through and raise the ire of Washington.

The fuller outline of the Omani plan:

Hormuz Scoop: Oman recently delivered a formal proposal to the United States and other Western allies that outlined a plan in which shipping companies would pay service fees to use the strait, according to the Iranian official and a regional diplomat.https://t.co/bjjgK1KjYk

— Vivian Nereim (@viviannereim) June 30, 2026

But it could be that the Trump administration, eager to end the war - or that is, this little 'excursion' in the Middle East and thus bring oil prices back to permanent pre-war levels, might in the end play ball with the Iranians and Omanis on the issue.

After all, the alternative is resumption of full war and thus escalating crude and energy prices globally - and that's precisely the kind of economic and political leverage the Iranians are counting on. There might be plenty of US willingness to look the other way to get energy transit flowing once again.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/30/2026 - 12:40

Deutsche Bank: Tesla's Q2 Vehicle Deliveries Tracking Above Consensus Expectations

Tesla could be on track to deliver a stronger than expected second quarter, according to a new research note from Deutsche Bank analyst Edison Yu and his automotive team.

The firm now expects Tesla to report approximately 416,000 vehicle deliveries during the second quarter of 2026. That estimate is about 10,000 vehicles above the company compiled consensus and sits modestly ahead of most Wall Street expectations, which generally range between 413,000 and 420,000 deliveries.

If Deutsche Bank's forecast proves accurate, Tesla would post delivery growth of 16% from the first quarter and 8% from the same period a year ago. The results would mark a meaningful rebound following a weaker start to the year. According to the analysts, international markets are doing most of the heavy lifting.

Europe is expected to be Tesla's strongest region, with deliveries rising nearly 40% from a year ago. Deutsche Bank believes improving demand across the region is the primary reason the company is on pace to outperform expectations.

China is also expected to contribute to the stronger quarter, although growth there is forecast to be much more modest at roughly 3% year over year. Registration data through May tracked close to 74,000 vehicles, while the bank estimates total second quarter deliveries from China will reach approximately 133,000 units. June order activity has also remained solid, with roughly 40,000 orders recorded through June 21. Deutsche Bank believes there is enough time left in the quarter for deliveries to reach its estimate.

North America remains the weakest part of Tesla's business. The bank expects deliveries in the region to decline about 21% from the same quarter last year. Even so, volumes are still projected to improve about 7% compared with the first quarter, suggesting conditions have stabilized somewhat despite softer demand.

Beyond the quarter itself, Deutsche Bank remains constructive on Tesla's full year outlook. The firm believes the company can deliver roughly 1.63 million vehicles during 2026, which would keep annual deliveries essentially flat even without a meaningful contribution from any new vehicle models.

The report suggests Tesla may not need a major product launch to stabilize sales this year. Instead, stronger demand in Europe combined with resilient performance in China could be enough to offset continued weakness in North America.

Investors will now be watching Tesla's official delivery report to see whether the company's international strength is enough to produce another quarter that comes in ahead of expectations.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/30/2026 - 12:00

Trump Suggests He May Not Sign Bipartisan Housing Affordability Bill

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times,

President Donald Trump indicated on June 29 that he may not sign a bill that Congress passed that aims to make housing more affordable.

Trump told reporters at the White House in Washington that he has not decided whether to sign the housing bill, the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act, which Congress approved in a bipartisan fashion earlier in the month and targets permitting times, boosts financial incentives, and aims to make it easier to obtain mortgages.

“I think it’s so unimportant compared to the Save America Act,” Trump said.

“To me, compared to the Save America Act, just about everything is a big yawn.”

Trump had been poised to sign the housing legislation, but canceled those plans so as to try to force Congress to pass the Save America Act, which would require voters to prove they are American citizens to vote in federal elections.

The House of Representatives has passed the act, but it has stalled in the Senate, where Democrats oppose it over concerns that it could exclude voters who meet the standards but lack the necessary documents.

House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) said over the weekend that the housing bill would be transmitted to Trump on Monday and that he was confident it would become law.

Johnson said the bill was a priority for Republicans because it would bring down housing costs and reduce regulation.

Trump has said that concerns about affordability are overblown.

“They say, ‘Oh, he doesn’t realize prices are high,’” he said in a speech in December 2025.

“Prices are coming down very substantially. But they have a new word. They always have a hoax. The new word is affordability.”

He said more recently that he does not consider the financial situation of Americans when deciding on next steps in the war with Iran.

Trump said Monday at the White House, where he signed a directive expanding Americans’ ability to repair their own vehicles, that the housing bill had not yet been sent to him.

“It’s coming, I understand,” he said. “And then I'll make a decision.”

Once Trump receives the bill, he has 10 days, excluding any Sundays, to veto or sign the legislation.

If he does not act within that period, the bill will become law automatically. If Trump vetoes the legislation, Congress can override the veto with a two-thirds vote in each chamber.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/30/2026 - 11:40

Democrat-Led States Sue Trump Administration Over Medicaid Work Requirement Rules

Via American Greatness,

A coalition of 25 Democrat-led states and the District of Columbia filed a lawsuit Monday challenging the Trump administration’s rules implementing new Medicaid work requirements. The suit claims the work regulations unlawfully restrict exemptions for medically vulnerable recipients.

The lawsuit, filed in federal court in Massachusetts, seeks to overturn the administration’s rule governing eligibility exemptions tied to the work requirements.

The states contend the rule conflicts with congressional intent by making it more difficult for individuals with illnesses to qualify for exemptions.

According to the complaint, the Trump administration’s policy will “cause immediate and irreparable harm” to state Medicaid programs.

The lawsuit argues the rule “will further strain safety net providers, lead to more uncompensated emergency care, and raise other costs associated with newly uninsured, medically frail residents.

And it will cause rural hospitals to be even more likely to shutter.”

The legal challenge was brought by 23 Democratic attorneys general along with the Democratic governors of Kentucky and Pennsylvania, both of which have Republican attorneys general.

The states also allege the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) violated administrative procedure laws by adopting a rule that differs significantly from earlier guidance provided to states on implementing the work requirements.

The Trump administration has defended Medicaid work requirements as part of an effort to ensure public assistance programs are directed toward eligible recipients while encouraging workforce participation.

Under the policy, Medicaid beneficiaries must complete at least 80 hours of work or other approved activities each month to maintain coverage no later than Jan. 1.

States must begin notifying Medicaid recipients by Aug. 31 about how they can comply with the new requirements.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/30/2026 - 11:05

AeroVironment Erupts On "Asymmetric Warfare Boom"

AeroVironment shares surged the most in nearly two decades in early trading after the defense contractor - best known for its loitering munitions and unmanned systems - reported stronger-than-expected fourth-quarter results and issued fiscal 2027 revenue guidance that topped Wall Street estimates tracked by Bloomberg.

AeroVironment's fiscal fourth-quarter revenue jumped 31% to $642 million, well ahead of the Bloomberg Consensus estimate of $556.4 million, driven mostly by its autonomous systems unit and soaring demand for Switchblade, Red Dragon, and Titan.

Switchblade

Adjusted EBITDA of $140.1 million and adjusted earnings of $1.84 per share also beat expectations. Initial fiscal 2027 guidance was broadly in line, with revenue projected at $2.125 billion to $2.225 billion, implying about 10% organic growth.

A quick look at AeroVironment's fourth-quarter earnings, courtesy of Bloomberg:

• Revenue $641.6 million vs. $275.1 million y/y, estimate $556.4 million
• Adjusted EPS $1.84 vs. $1.61 y/y, estimate $1.41
• Income from operations $56.9 million vs. $13.8 million y/y, estimate $39.4 million
• Adjusted Ebitda $140.1 million vs. $61.6 million y/y, estimate $126.1 million
• Gross profit $202.6 million vs. $100.3 million y/y, estimate $175.6 million

... and 2027 year forecast:

• Sees revenue $2.13 billion to $2.23 billion, estimate $2.16 billion (Bloomberg Consensus)
• Sees adjusted EPS $3.02 to $3.34, estimate $3.79
• Sees adjusted Ebitda $305 million to $325 million, estimate $346.2 million

Stifel analysts noted AeroVironment's strength in the drone and counter-drone space:  

AeroVironment is a leader in several key areas in new defense, namely loitering munitions (Switchblade family of drones) that we believe will be critical as the entire industry undergoes a transformation.

The company's merger with BlueHalo provides exposure in space, counterdrone, and missiles, all of which are priorities for the DoD.

We anticipate a steep ramp in organic EBITDA in the legacy AVAV portfolio and BlueHalo.

Our Buy rating reflects AeroVironment's positioning as a pure-play new defense tech company with rapidly growing sales and earnings driving increased investor enthusiasm and multiple expansion.

Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Will Lee noted:

AeroVironment's fiscal 2027 sales targets seem achievable, fueled by expectations of robust demand across its loitering munition, drone and counter-drone, or C-UAS, portfolio. Still, sales are skewed toward 2H, and US budget delays might push them further out into 2028.

KeyBanc Capital Markets analyst Michael Leshock noted:

AeroVironment is positioned to capitalize on the proliferation of UAS/cUAS and increased government spending in defense and space-related programs. Should geopolitical tensions intensify, AVAV is positioned among the top beneficiaries.

In early trading, AeroVironment shares were up nearly 31%, which would mark the stock's largest one-day gain on record if the move holds into the cash session. Year to date, shares are down 42.5% as of Monday's close. Short interest remains elevated, with about 13% of the float sold short, equivalent to roughly 4.8 million shares.

Perfect timing on AeroVironment. We recently laid out for readers how to capitalize on the accelerating "asymmetric warfare boom," a theme that appears poised to gain momentum in the quarters ahead. Read the full note here.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/30/2026 - 10:55

Another JOLT: Jobs Opening Smash Expectations, Despite Another Drop In Number Of Hires

Another month, another whopping beat by the BLS JOLTS job openings report.

One month after the April JOLTS report came out with a whopping 9-sigma beat to estimates, when it showed that in April the US added a whopping 731K job openings to 7.618 million (and up 520K from a year ago), smashing estimates of 6.9 million, moments ago the BLS reported that in May, the number of total job openings printed at 7.594 million, almost as if it was designed to post another improvement from last month's downward revised 7.585MM (from 7.618MM), and once again smashed estimates of 7.296MM.

While not as historic as last month's record 9-sigma beat, today's print was still a solid 2-sigma beat to the median estimate.

It was also the 5th consecutive beat of estimates and 8th in the past 10!

Where did the openings come from? According to the BLS,the notable increase came from an increase in wholesale trade (+71,000), but as can be seen from the table below, there were also increases in manufacturing and leisure and hospitality; on the other side, openings dropped in financial services, and private education.

Notably, unlike last month's record increase in Professional and Business service job openings in April, May's increase for the category was a tame 12K to 1.485 million. Also of note, Federal government dropped by 14K to 83K, the second lowest print of 2026 and not much above the record low hit last August, even as the total number of government job openings rose driven by an increase in state and local.

The continued strength in job openings prints, coupled with the modest increase in unemployed workers means that after 9 months of labor surplus, we now have a second consecutive month of more job openings than unemployed workes, and in May the surplus was 287K, the biggest surplus since Jan 2025, and a reversal to the "deficit" regime observed since last July.

The latest JOLTS report also means that after falling back to 0.9x in March, in April the ratio of job openings rose over 1.0x and was the highest since January 2025.

But while the job openings number was very strong for another month, this month we saw continued weakness in hires and barely any improvement in quits, In May, the number of Quits dropped to 5.170MM from 5.215MM, again approaching the post covid lows; quits - or the "take his job and shove it" indicator - rose modestly to 3.065MM from 3.043MM, and followed the 183K plunge in March. 

It goes without saying that a surge in job openings while hires are dropping, and few people are voluntarily leaving their jobs, while payrolls are growing (as we will find out on Thursday), leads one to scratch their head just what is going on here, besides data massaging of course.

In any case, since this hires number feeds directly into the payrolls calculations (after netting out separations) this explains why the May payrolls report surged by 172K, even if the JOLTS implied number is barely a third as strong.

Overall, this was a very strong JOLTS report, and shows that after some significant weakness in late 2025, US labor market has continued to stabilize throughout 2026. Of course, the report also lags the payrolls report by a month, which is why it gives us little insight into what Thurday's jobs report will be, although if the hires less separations dataset is any indication, it suggests that the June print will come well below expectations. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/30/2026 - 10:35

Supreme Court: States Can Ban Trans Athletes From Girls' Sports

The Supreme Court on Tuesday ruled that states can block biological transgender males from competing in girls' sports. In a 6-3 ruling, the court gave an iron-clad answer to the question. 

Writing for the majority in West Virginia v. B.P.J. (consolidated with Little v. Hecox), Justice Brett Kavanaugh held that neither Title IX nor the Equal Protection Clause requires schools to carve out an exception for transgender athletes who've undergone hormone therapy or never experienced male puberty. States can draw the line at biological sex, full stop - no judge-administered athlete-by-athlete fairness hearings required. The ruling reverses both the Fourth Circuit (which sided with West Virginia's B.P.J.) and the Ninth Circuit (which sided with Idaho's Lindsay Hecox), and lands squarely in the wake of last year's Skrmetti decision, extending its "this is a sex classification, not a transgender classification" framework from medical care straight into the locker room.

Background

Roughly half the states - approximately 27 - have enacted laws in recent years restricting participation in girls' and women's school sports to those whose biological sex, as determined at birth, matches the team category. These measures, often titled "Fairness in Women's Sports" acts or similar, reflect concerns over competitive fairness, safety, and the preservation of opportunities for biological females amid rising participation by transgender athletes.

The two cases before the Court arise from Idaho and West Virginia.

Idaho's law (enacted 2020) categorically bars transgender girls and women from girls' and women's teams in public elementary, secondary, and postsecondary schools. It defines eligibility based on biological sex and requires sex verification (often involving invasive procedures) for athletes on girls' teams but not boys' teams.

West Virginia's law (enacted 2021) similarly requires that participation on teams designated for girls or women be based on biological sex.

Lindsay Hecox, a biological male, challenged Idaho's law after seeking to compete on Boise State University's women's track and cross-country teams - and later participated in club sports. Hecox's lawsuit alleged violations of the Equal Protection Clause of the 14th Amendment, claiming the law discriminates on the basis of sex and transgender status and imposes unequal verification burdens.

B.P.J., another biological male who has identified as a girl since third grade and has taken puberty blockers and estrogen, challenged West Virginia's ban after competing on their high school's girls' track and cross-country teams. The suit claims violations of both the Equal Protection Clause and Title IX (the federal law prohibiting sex discrimination in federally funded education programs).

Lower federal courts blocked enforcement of both laws. The 9th Circuit found Idaho's measure likely violated equal protection by intending to exclude transgender girls/women and by imposing sex-based verification only on girls' teams. The 4th Circuit held West Virginia's law likely violated Title IX by discriminating against B.P.J. on the basis of sex.

At oral arguments on January 13 of this year, the states and supporting parties (including the Trump administration) argued that the laws classify on the basis of biological sex - a classification long accepted in sports to ensure fairness and safety given average physiological differences in strength, speed, muscle mass, bone density, and cardiovascular capacity that emerge after male puberty. They contended that sex-separated teams are permissible and even required under Title IX regulations, that states need not create perfect individual accommodations, and that allowing transgender girls/women (even those on hormone therapy) into female categories undermines the very purpose of sex-segregated sports. They emphasized that transgender boys can generally compete on boys' teams, so the laws do not single out transgender status per se.

Challengers countered that the bans discriminate on the basis of transgender status and sex, that many transgender girls/women (especially those who never experienced full male puberty or who have undergone hormone suppression) lack meaningful competitive advantages, and that categorical exclusion stigmatizes transgender students, deprives them of athletic opportunities, and violates both constitutional equal protection and Title IX's promise of equal access. They urged individualized assessments rather than blanket rules.

Justices' questioning suggested a likely majority inclined to uphold the state laws, with conservative members emphasizing biological differences, state authority over education and athletics, and deference to longstanding sex-based categories in sports. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/30/2026 - 10:20

Conference Board Consumer Survey Signals Ugly Job Market, Weakest 'Present Situation' In Over 5 Years

Amid a plethora of revisions (lower), The Conference Board's measure of Americans' Consumer Confidence rose very modestly in June (from 90.6 to 91.2 - a big miss on the headline print's expectation of 94.4).

However, while Expectations rose to their highest level of the year, the Present Situation tumbled to its lowest since March 2021...

“Consumer confidence inched up in June as falling oil prices in recent weeks provided some relief to consumer inflation fears,” said Dana M Peterson, Chief Economist, The Conference Board.

“Consumer appraisals of current business conditions were slightly more positive compared to last month.

However, perceptions of the current labor market softened measurably as the percentage of consumers saying jobs were ‘hard to get’ rose to 22.5%, the highest level since January 2021 (22.8%).

Moreover, consumers anticipate little change in the labor market six months from now.

This was offset by improving expectations for business conditions and incomes.”

Consumers’ average and median 12-month inflation expectations were less elevated...

Among age groups, confidence for consumers under age 35 remained the highest, but confidence for all age groups trended downward on a six-month moving average basis.

By income, on a six-month moving average basis, confidence was mixed or little changed across all categories.

By generation, confidence fell the most for the Silent Generation but was stable or lower for others on a six-month moving average basis.

By political affiliation, confidence among Independents and Democrats rose while Republicans were somewhat less positive on a month-over-month basis.

Consumers’ write-in responses on factors affecting the economy continued to skew towards pessimism in June.

References to prices and oil and gas eased in frequency but remain elevated. Mentions of war, geopolitics, and conflict eased, reflecting some easing of consumer concerns about the inflationary impacts of the war in the Middle East.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/30/2026 - 10:16

Today Will Or Won't See A US-Iran Meeting In Doha Which Will Be "Perhaps Important, Perhaps Not"

By Michael Every of Rabobank

Build 'em up or Burnham down?

In typical form, today will or won’t see a US-Iran meeting in Doha; which will be ‘perhaps important, perhaps not’; and either discussing the MoU or unfreezing $6bn of Iranian assets. So, the ‘peacefire’ continues, as expected, but with little chance this holds permanently. Likewise in Lebanon, where the US is pushing to disarm Hezbollah --which refuses-- and Israel won’t leave until that happens. And Gaza, where the Board of Peace is finalising its plans as the IDF warns Hamas is readying for war. And Iraq, which just set a September 30 deadline for pro-Iran militias to disarm. And Libya, where Marco Rubio is fighting another crisis. To give an early Christmas present to Tucker Carlson and Marjorie Taylor Greene, Israel also says it’s developing space lasers.

That’s as South Korea announced a $1.3 trillion AI and IT investment plan to maintain an edge vs. China over the next decade – which is showing footage of a 6G fighter jet and conducting tests of a hypersonic ramjet that can change shape in flight; China has restricted dual use exports to Mitsubishi, Hitachi, Komatsu units; Supermicro’s Taiwan offices were raided in a chip smuggling probe; and a Rakuten-led group is set for state subsidies to build Japan's answer to Starlink. In short, what we see around us is as about massive, urgent investment in defence and AI as much it is about related energy (i.e., Hormuz), broader commodities, and supply chains.

That’s unbelievably expensive to address. For example, the US is pushing for a $1.5 trillion defence budget, while keeping up with South Korea alone would require Europe to invest $14 trillion to match it equivalently. Tellingly, the UK will today unveil its new defence strategy, which shifts to cheap drones from larger platforms --guided missile destroyers and frigates are cut-- as outgoing PM Starmer presides over a plan that will only reach 2.7% of GDP by 2030, not the promised 3.0%; some say he wants to run NATO next (to tell his successor he must reach 3.5%).

So, we may soon require:

• Creative book-keeping: Hungary’s new PM claims his predecessor hid half of the budget deficit, which is actually 8% of GDP.
• Spending cuts: and good luck with that.
• New taxes: France is now looking for EU-wide taxes to fund a planned €2 trillion commission budget, with the idea that foreign firms, like US tech and polluters, could pay more.
• Tariffs: last week, US Treasury Secretary Bessent cited Hamiltonian economic statecraft; yesterday, White House macro-maven Miran penned a WSJ op-ed arguing for US tariffs. The EU just gave China an October deadline to address their huge --and predictable-- trade imbalance, kicking the can down the road, but pointing to a trade war and/or Hamilton (and Trump) moment ahead, which could prove transformative. Even Paul Krugman is telling the EU to tariff China.
• Industrial policy: which is very much back in vogue, even if what this means is vague for many.
• A compliant central bank: There, the Supreme Court just overturned precedent to allow the White House to remove heads of federal agencies, greatly empowering the executive. It kept FOMC member Cook in her seat for now until due process plays out but did not address whether “for cause” removals at the Fed are also constitutional or not, allowing Trump to restart the process of trying to fire her over allegations of mortgage fraud and, in time, to potentially relitigate if the Fed is a special case or not.

The ECB’s Lagarde, who years ago said the Bank should work hand-in-hand with governments to overcome geopolitical crises, just stated Europe is getting better at coping with economic shocks due to a better financial framework and the green transition. European refineries’ flexibility on jet fuel helped; but China did more by not importing as much oil, and the US and Japan by draining their SPRs, all due to *their* economic statecraft. Now the risk is rising of a China cut-off of rare earths to Europe, which account for half its total (and Russia a quarter), and of more expensive Chinese imports across the board. What if that transpires from October onwards – and if we get more war vs. Iran after the US midterms?

In the UK, the question is ‘Build ‘em up or Burnham down?’ as the soon-to-be UK PM just called to “rewire” the UK economy. He’s talking about devolution - which hasn’t boosted growth in Scotland; equalisation across regions – which most countries want but fail to achieve; (expensive?) public control of utilities; and reindustrialisation – in a period of protectionism and bloc-based realignment. In short, is the UK going to tariff everybody, or the US, or Europe, or China? Logically, one should start from there, not locally, only to then hit a low tariff ceiling on the attempted way back up.

In short, political economy remains in flux. Markets don’t think things through in such detail or depth: whatever happens is an input into the ‘up or down from here’ binary. However, the scale on which things can move up or down based on how political-economy transforms shouldn’t be understated. JPY is at a 40-year low vs. the dollar at time of writing: where will other crosses go as things unfold?

Yet even as politicians --and central bankers-- try to relearn things from first principles, revolutionary change can reshape the architecture which they think they are operating in. For example, regular readers may recall that years ago I floated the idea of letters of marque as a way to channel private sector energies and capital into national security without busting budgets or political constraints like no boots on the ground. On that note, see the following proposal taken from X and think about it seriously:

“A durable solution to the Iran problem is pretty easy:

1. Form the American Persian Energy Company (APEC)
2. Give 25% to Exxon and Chevron, who will capitalize it and provide expertise
3. Ground invasion of Iran, but only with volunteer troops who will be compensated with APEC stock
4. US military provides air cover and logistical support
5. Defecting Iranian generals will also be compensated with a quantity of APEC stock dependent on their rank and the number of soldiers they bring with them
6. All oil and gas rights in Iran are granted to the APEC
7. New $2 trillion American company is created out of thin air
8. Iran temporarily governed by APEC CEO while a transition to a suitable civilian government is negotiated”

If you think this kind of thing doesn’t happen (anymore: it used to) then you haven’t noticed how 18th and 19th century thinking is not just back in vogue but is actively winning vs. the post-Cold War political establishment consensus; or how modern mercenaries like Blackwater operate.

Political economy is changing; it will change much, much more; and markets will change with it. The volatility we are seeing in the Hormuz ‘peacefire’ is just a taste of what’s to come. Some assets will be built up. Others will be burned down.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/30/2026 - 10:00

"Right Above The Cockpit": Drone Strikes JetBlue Plane On Final Approach To JFK

JetBlue Airways Flight 948 reportedly struck a small drone while the narrow-body aircraft was in the traffic pattern on final approach to John F. Kennedy International Airport in New York City.

JetBlue pilots reported striking a drone earlier today as they approached New York - JFK Airport at ASALT, the waypoint in the center of the video, about 11:16:45 UTC. JetBlue #B6948 landed safely from Las Vegas moments later. The FAA is investigating. https://t.co/6p9iO8nCVv pic.twitter.com/aWdCiJSVJ1

— Flightradar24 (@flightradar24) June 29, 2026

A JetBlue pilot could be heard talking with Kennedy Tower about the drone strike. The pilot said the jet collided with a drone during a turn about two miles before landing. When the controller asked for confirmation, the pilot said the object struck "right above the cockpit."

"Just quickly, I couldn't talk to approach, but we collided with a drone back there in the turn," the pilot said.

"You said you collided?" the air traffic controller asked.

"Yep, it hit us right, right above the cockpit," the pilot said.

This morning, JetBlue Airbus A321-231 (N979JT) operating flight B6948 from Las Vegas to New York JFK reported a drone strike while on approach to JFK.

According to the crew, the drone struck the aircraft just above the cockpit at approximately 3,000 feet around 7:15 a.m. The… pic.twitter.com/VJNVOoBrW5

— Turbine Traveller (@Turbinetraveler) June 29, 2026

The FAA released a statement shortly after the mid-air incident:

The pilot of JetBlue Airlines Flight 948 reported striking a drone at approximately 3,000 feet altitude while on final approach to John F. Kennedy International Airport around 7:15 a.m. local time on Monday, June 29. A post-flight inspection did not reveal any damage to the aircraft. The FAA will investigate. Contact the airline for more information.

FAA Statement
The pilot of JetBlue Airlines Flight 948 reported striking a drone at approximately 3,000 feet altitude while on final approach to John F. Kennedy International Airport around 7:15 a.m. local time on Monday, June 29. A post-flight inspection did not reveal any…

— The FAA ✈️ (@FAANews) June 29, 2026

The incident is yet another warning that even some of the most heavily monitored and defended airspace in the country remains highly exposed to small, low-cost drones. It also underscores the urgent need for counter-UAS deployments at major airports and other critical infrastructure nodes, including power grids and data centers, before a devastating drone attack becomes a national story across every front page.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/30/2026 - 09:45

US-Iran Have Delegations In Qatar, But No Direct Talks; Hormuz Energy Transit Rebounds - Oil Down Near Prewar Levels

The Witkoff-Kushner delegation is now confirmed to be in Doha, and yet in its latest official statement Iran's foreign ministry has made clear the Iranian side has no plans to meet US officials "at any level in the next few days."

"What will probably be done in Doha tomorrow is a discussion on the implementation of clauses of the Memorandum of Understanding, including the clause related to the release of Iran’s restricted assets with the Qatari parties," spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei says. "Therefore, I emphasize that we have not planned any meeting with the American side at any level for the next few days," Baghaei added. Meanwhile:

Iran’s Ghalibaf: If They Do Not Want To Fulfil Their Commitments In The Talks, We Are Ready For War

Tehran is expecting that $6 billion of Iranian frozen funds in Qatar will be transferred back by week's end, but Qatar's foreign ministry indicated Tuesday this had yet to happen. Up for discussion among mediators currently in Qatar is precisely the fate of Iran's frozen funds, and implementing agreed-upon transfers. However, Washington has for days accused Iran's military of violating the ceasefire and its commitments under the MoU - a charge that Tehran has fired back in turn.

via AFP

On Monday President Trump had claimed that Iran "requested a meeting" following the exchange of strikes last week, but no such meeting appears to be materializing - at least not a direct one in Doha. But according to the latest from Al Jazeera Tuesday:

Qatar’s Foreign Ministry spokesman also said that US envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff are in the country’s capital, Doha, despite having no meetings with Iranian officials scheduled.

Iran remains defiant, insisting that it will not concede anything - especially regards to its control over the Strait of Hormuz, vowing it's ready to return to armed conflict if things can't be resolved at the negotiating table.

Tehran is asserting its 'right' to manage the strait under its own protocol, and while Oman's cooperation has been sought, Iranian officials have said they will proceed with or without Oman's help and that this will include tolls, towards partically funding the reconstruction of Iran.

Part of this entrenched position is Iran wants its frozen assets before peace talks, while the US said is saying it must demonstrate it is worthy first. Fox has cited Baghaei, who "told reports that clauses in Tehran’s interim deal with the U.S. must be implemented before talks on a final agreement can begin."

"Baghaei also said the communication channel between Iran and the U.S. is based on political factions, not military ones," the report said.

Still, despite the apparently unbending positions of the warring sides, oil is responding favorably, as the Trump administration no doubt wants to be on message going into the July 4th holiday:

Oil prices were on track Tuesday for their steepest quarterly decline since the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic, as investors watched for potential U.S.-Iran talks in Doha amid a strained interim ceasefire in the 4-month-old war.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) was headed for a second monthly decline of roughly 19%, while Brent crude was on pace for a third consecutive monthly drop, down about 20% in June.

Both Brent and WTI have fallen sharply this quarter and are trading near pre-war levels as more ships move out of the Gulf, easing some supply concerns.

Hormuz will not return to its pre-war status. Tehran’s position is that the unlawful US-Israeli war on Iran changed the rules of passage. Safe navigation can no longer be treated as a free service imposed on Iran while its waters, coast, and security infrastructure are…

— Elijah J. Magnier 🇪🇺 (@ejmalrai) June 30, 2026

This is also amid a rebound in shipping traffic to kick off this week, after tit-for-tat weekend attacks:

Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz rebounded Tuesday morning, with eight crossings so far after 40 vessels moved through the critical waterway Monday, according to Kpler data.

The rebound comes after some days of declining traffic following attacks on commercial vessels in the region due to renewed strikes between the U.S. and Iran late last week. Crossings fell from 76 on Wednesday, June 24, to 59 on Thursday, when the Ever Lovely was attacked.

Traffic then dropped to 50 crossings Friday, 39 on Saturday, when the Kiku was attacked, and just 24 on Sunday before recovering to 40 on Monday.

Of Monday’s 40 crossings, 10 vessels used the southern Omani route, which the U.S. Navy is helping coordinate. Thirty-two of the 40 vessels were large tankers and bulk carriers.

In fresh comments on the status of energy transit in the Strait of Hormuz, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has said in a fresh media interview reported in Bloomberg that only China has bought Iranian oil since the US lifted sanctions.

Strong signaling out of Israeli defense establishment, following Monday remarks by Katz...

'Israel is preparing for the immediate resumption of military operations against Iran.'

Senior Middle East Correspondent @ariel_oseran joins @benitalevin on #TheRundown pic.twitter.com/8c7YfNgaMP

— i24NEWS English (@i24NEWS_EN) June 30, 2026

"Iranians thus far have not been able to sell their oil, because the buyers are a little weary of, will it be resanctioned?" Bessent posed on Fox, noting that it's still trading at a discount to China.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/30/2026 - 09:30

Obamacare Enrollment Drops By 3 Million; Experts Disagree On Cause

Authored by Lawrence Wilson via The Epoch Times,

Obamacare enrollment declined by nearly 3 million in 2026, sparking renewed debate about the affordability of healthcare in America.

National politicians and policy experts disagreed on the reasons for the dip in enrollment, with some saying that it was driven by rising premiums. 

Others said the decline was evidence that program integrity measures taken by the Trump administration were successful in rooting out fraud and waste. 

The program grew significantly during the declared National Health Emergency from 2021 through 2024, when eligibility verification requirements were relaxed and participants were automatically reenrolled.

Enrollment peaked at 22.1 million last year and dropped to 19.2 million as of February, according to federal data released June 26.

Though that’s still higher than in any year except 2025, some analysts interpreted the decline as a massive loss of coverage resulting from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act of 2025.

“One year later, the Trump administration’s policies are bleeding the revenue of the American tax system and have left millions of Americans without health coverage and food assistance,” Amina Khalique and Natasha Murphy wrote in a June 25 article for Center for American Progress, writing on the anniversary of the bill’s passage.

Others including Brian Blase, president of Paragon Health Institute, say that the changes mostly reverted to pre-pandemic coverage and policy rules, which had been an incentive for fraud. 

“Excessive subsidies and zero-premium plans created unusually strong incentives for improper enrollment, while weak verification systems, permissive enrollment pathways, and insufficient oversight allowed those incentives to be exploited at scale,” Blase wrote in a June analysis.

The Trump Administration has focused on program integrity, preventing about 2.9 million enrollees from receiving Obamacare subsidies that they didn’t qualify for, according to a statement from the assistant secretary for Health and Human Services.

The government estimates that 2.6 million fraudulent enrollments remain in the program, down from an estimated high of 5.6 million last year.

Either way, the changes left millions uninsured, according to some experts. 

About 9 percent of 2025 Obamacare enrollees became uninsured as of March, according to a survey conducted by health research group KFF.

“While the Trump administration attributes this drop in enrollment to their attempts to address fraud, this coverage loss happened at the same time millions of people faced steep increases in their premium payments,” Cynthia Cox, a senior vice president at KFF, wrote on social media on June 29.

“Real people lost their health insurance or are now paying more,” Cox said.

The average monthly premium for 2026 is $178, compared to $113 in 2025, according to KFF. However, the 2026 premium is lower than the 2021 premium after adjusting for inflation.

The benchmark silver premium, which is used to set subsidy rates, increased by about 25 percent in 2026, according to KFF.

Democrats seized on the enrollment data to criticize President Donald Trump and Republicans over healthcare affordability. 

“Trump and congressional Republicans let healthcare premiums explode and now millions of Americans can’t afford coverage,” Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.) wrote on social media on June 29.

“That’s not right,” said Dr. Mehmet Oz, administrator of the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, responding to the argument that premium increases have forced people off of the program. 

“The reality is we have a lot of fake people on the policies,” Oz told Fox News on June 29. 

Oz cited that 40 percent of enrollees never use the policies as proof that many either do not want the coverage, do not realize they have it, or were fraudulently enrolled.

Prior to the introduction of the enhanced subsidies in 2021, Obamacare enrollment had declined for four years.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/30/2026 - 09:15

US Home Prices Drop For 3rd Straight Month

Home prices in America's top 20 cities were expected to fall MoM for the 3rd straight month in April (the latest reported data from S&P Cotality Case-Shiller) and they did... but only marginally.

Prices fell 0.04% MoM in April (less than the 0.10% decline expected), but the annual change rose modestly from +0.88% YoY to +1.14% YoY...

Source: Bloomberg

"Monthly price movements show seasonal strength masking underlying softness," said Nicholas Godec, CFA, CAIA, CIPM, Head of Fixed Income Tradables & Commodities at S&P Dow Jones Indices.

The oddly tight coupling with Fed Reserves suggests the path is lower...

"Geographic dispersion remains pronounced," Godec continued.

"Midwest and Northeast markets are still leading moderate growth, while many Sun Belt and Western metros see ongoing declines.

Chicago was again the strongest market with a 6.5% annual gain, trailed by New York (3.8%) and Cleveland (3.2%).

Seattle’s 2.3% year-over-year drop was the steepest in April, with Denver (-1.8%), Tampa (-1.8%), Dallas (-1.6%), and Phoenix (-1.7%) also among the notable decliners.

The nearly 9 percent performance spread between Chicago and Seattle highlights how localized housing trends remain.

On a YoY basis, Chicago reported the highest annual gain among the 20 cities with a 6.5% increase in April, followed by New York and Cleveland with annual increases of 3.8% and 3.2%, respectively.

Seattle posted the lowest return in April, falling 2.3%.

The chart below compares year-over-year returns for different housing price ranges (tiers) in Chicago.

"The affordability pinch remains a key headwind," Godec concluded.

"After dipping below 6% earlier this year, 30-year mortgage rates climbed back to 6.3% in April, keeping financing costs elevated. In this higher-rate environment, home price growth remains constrained, with housing largely treading water in nominal terms and falling in real terms."

Finally, with inflation accelerating to 3.8% in April, U.S. home values have now declined in real terms for an 11th straight month, further eroding inflation-adjusted housing wealth.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/30/2026 - 09:09