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The Beautiful Great Game: Extra Time & Penalties

Zero Rss
1 month 4 weeks ago
The Beautiful Great Game: Extra Time & Penalties

By Michael Every of Rabobank

Yesterday’s in-line US CPI report was the non-event its relative insignificance vs tumultuous domestic and global backdrops suggested it should be. Meanwhile, in the ‘Beautiful Great Game’, it’s extra time and penalties, medals and champagne for some, and tears for others.

Iran remains defiant. Trump says he has “total control” of and “will keep” Hormuz. He’s hoping the UAE can shuttle vastly more refined product through Hormuz under the radar than it already is, as Axios flags, ‘Diesel desperation is mounting globally.’ Trump is also hoping Tehran will crumble in the face of 300% inflation, as the US blockade really is seeing import costs rise 4x in coming only by land. Over the longer term, a popular revolt can’t be ruled out – but until then that threat looms in many places.

In the US, despite a narrow defeat in the Wisconsin gubernatorial primary, the Democratic Socialist Alliance is rising to threaten to do to the Democratic Part what MAGA has done to the Republicans. Even the Wall Street Journal has noticed the rise of the pro-communist Hasan Piker.

The UK today sees a by-election where Reform UK leader Farage likely trounces Count Binface, a comedian wearing a trash can/rubbish bin on his head. While many in London and Manchester may think this mocks a right-wing populist feuding with much further-right figures, in a manner also seen in the US, The Times’ take is that Farage will return to Parliament in a Trumpian style that will further shake established British political norms.

A poll for the German state election in Saxony-Anhalt in four weeks shows the far-right AfD at 43%, Chancellor Merz's CDU 23%, the Left party 13%, the SPD 7%, the Greens 5%, the minimum to enter the parliament, and the far-left BSW and pro-business FDP 4% and 2%, respectively. In short, the ‘sensible centre’ of CDU, SPD, FPD, and Greens cannot govern in any possible combination, and perhaps nobody can.

The looming 2027 French presidential election holds the threat of far-right Le Pen meeting far-left Melenchon in the final round, where the former perhaps offers markets the relatively smaller shock given the latter has recently talked about outright cancelling French government debt.

Helpfully(?), the FT today asks, ‘Why must a socialist also be woke?’ arguing, “If the left could separate economics from culture, capitalism would have more to fear.” Yet elsewhere it notes the Boston Fed’s Collins saying poorer Americans are struggling to make ends meet while backing a rate hike if inflation remains hot that will hurt them too. ‘Why must capitalism not wake up?’ is a key question we ignore in assuming how we’ve played the game until now will still work ahead.  

Don’t think this is just a Western issue. India has been plagued with angry youth protests called ‘The Cockroach Party’; South Korea’s governing DPK is struggling with young voters furious about unaffordable housing and the need to gamble in the volatile stock market to make ends meet.

Unfortunately, it isn’t only Hormuz to resolve. The Wall Street Journal underlines that ‘War Is Squeezing Another Global Chokepoint: The Black Sea’, where Russia is ramping up attacks on grain shipments while Ukraine has been striking oil tankers. That war and the one in the Middle East are also conflating in the Caspian Sea, where Ukraine has struck Russian Iran-bound cargoes, which saw Iran contemplate an attack on Ukraine in response.

Moreover, Putin is reportedly now considering retaliatory seizures of European ships world-wide after his shadow fleet has been interdicted by them. That could require a firm, expensive, and risky response.

Eurovision banning countries in an “armed conflict” or a “sensitive geopolitical situation” from hosting its song contest will not suffice: Russia is already banned, so this is likely aimed at Israel, but also covers Ukraine – and could the recent border Spain-Morocco border issue count too?

Indeed, much more is needed in extra time. A belated Establishment recognition that free trade is not appropriate policy in a zero-sum, geopolitical, neo-mercantilist world disorder requires countries to ask, “What is GDP *for*?” That then creates a cascading stack of follow-on questions, including “*Who* is GDP for?”

Even if we drop free trade, nobody is going to buy into a neo-mercantilism that makes people feel even worse off. Countries will therefore have to find ways to protect themselves and make people feel better off.

Yes, there is the ‘inflationary impact of tariffs.’ However, that kneejerk retort overlooks that neo-mercantilism can generate a supply-side response that lowers prices; and it sees the relative GDP share of consumption decline vs. that of investment and exports while consumer spending can still grow significantly in real terms – it did in China for many years, for example.

The Beautiful Great Game will therefore require new strategies and tactics. Old ones will need to be substituted – and some will be sent off. Space precludes a more detailed breakdown of what this is likely to entail ahead, but as underlined years ago, it involves structural changes to how the government, central banks, businesses, markets, and even society operate.

As the latest examples, the US is burning regulations like the Biden-era reporting requirement for US businesses; the US Army has just opened its testing ranges to private industry for the first time; and UK PM Burnham is talking about shaking up what the current vape-shops-and-Turkish-barbers high streets look like with differential local tax rates for various kinds of businesses. Moreover, the US Treasury has bailed out Argentina and intervened to help Japan – the latter to limited impact until the BOJ wakes up, which could trigger a tsunami for Japanese insurers and the Yen carry trade, requiring even greater US involvement; and, of course, the Fed is being restructured under Warsh and will almost inevitably work more closely with the Treasury.

There will be penalties: the US just sold 10-year debt at 4.68%, the highest such yield since the GFC. If that is a problem for the US, imagine what it means for a global system built on its back.

There will be winners’ medals and champagne: the FT today notes, ‘Wall Street giants bet Nvidia’s AI chips will defy the laws of finance’, where “Private capital firms are wagering that the crucial hardware will hold its value for years to come.”

There will also be tears. AI volatility and recent ‘permanent underclass’ fears aside, AI is such a national-security issue that it’s convenient that the private-sector is prepared to fund so many schemes exceeding the cost of the Manhattan Project, saving the state the expense, in the aim of… massive profits(?); but it’s the government --and military-- that will likely want the fruits at the end, and cheaply.

That realpolitik power dynamic is a key neo-mercantilism rule you wouldn’t want to get offside of.

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/13/2026 - 10:25
Tyler Durden

Palantir, Flock, & Data Centers: The Battle Dividing The Right

Zero Rss
1 month 4 weeks ago
Palantir, Flock, & Data Centers: The Battle Dividing The Right

The political right spent much of the last decade united against Big Tech, government surveillance, and the unprecedented expansion of state power during COVID. But the rise of artificial intelligence has brought with it an urgent need for data centers, and firms like Palantir and Flock are providing government with increasingly sophisticated tools for mass-surveillance… severing the coalition that once simultaneously maintained the slogans “back the blue” and “don’t tread on me”.

7pm ET on the ZH home/X feed.

Tonight, ZeroHedge Debates takes on the emerging fault line: Is America's technological revolution essential to national renewal, or are conservatives embracing the very surveillance infrastructure they once feared?

Joining us are InfoWars host Harrison Smith and Jordan Schachtel, writer at dossier.today, two figures who once found themselves firmly aligned against the COVID-era regime.

At the center of the dispute are three issues: Palantir, data centers, and Flock surveillance cameras.

Schachtel calls Palantir “an exceptional American company” and argues that Flock is simply another tool for police to catch criminals… so if you opposed “defund the police”, then you ought to support Flock. 

Palantir is an exceptional American company. Benjamin Netanyahu is a great statesman of our time. Data centers are the heart of American technological infrastructure. Flock cameras are essential to city policing. Covid was a scam turned global hysteria, not a lab leak. Elon Musk… pic.twitter.com/1Wikabypui

— Jordan Schachtel (@JordanSchachtel) July 22, 2026

Smith on the other hand… thinks they’re just gonna f***ing kill us:

They are going to try to kill you. https://t.co/w8SFrVCe00

— Harrison H. Smith ✞ (@HarrisonHSmith) August 4, 2026

“Us” being people deemed a threat to the State, which could extend to all gun owners if the Dems take power

They want to revitalize the American heartland but NOT through tens of millions in data center revenue that saves towns.

They want to make the cities safe but NOT through Flock systems that dramatically reduce crime.

It's always easier to do nothing at all and maintain the…

— Jordan Schachtel (@JordanSchachtel) August 9, 2026

President Trump recently made remarks inline with Schachtel that data centers have the potential to be a huge economic boon for the United States economy. Smith, however, does not see the tangible benefits:

Can someone tell me how a data center will improve the lives of Americans?

Explain to me the benefits that we will receive worth trillions of dollars, billions of gallons of fresh water, millions of acres of farm land, and more energy than our biggest cities.

Someone explain. pic.twitter.com/P3wkP9crhk

— Harrison H. Smith ✞ (@HarrisonHSmith) April 27, 2026

Regardless of which camp you’re in, tune in this evening on the ZeroHedge homepage and X feed at 7pm ET tonight for the showdown.

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/13/2026 - 10:10
Tyler Durden

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