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Ship Traffic Through Hormuz Chokepoint Continues As Normalization Efforts Remain "Fragile"
U.S. and Iranian negotiators concluded a lengthy initial round of technical talks, backed by Qatar and Pakistan, with early progress reported. Still, the diplomatic road to a permanent peace deal remains fragile. For now, despite Tehran declaring on Sunday that the Strait was "closed," millions of barrels of crude continue to exit the Persian Gulf through the critical maritime chokepoint.
Bloomberg reports that five laden oil tankers carrying a combined 8 million barrels were seen entering or moving through the strait along the southern part of the Hormuz near Oman's coast before switching off their transponders. One tanker reappeared hours later in the Gulf of Oman, marking a safe passage.
The transits suggest CENTCOM's claim that U.S. forces can keep the Omani-side corridor of the maritime chokepoint open, despite Iran's assertion that only the northern, Tehran-approved route is permitted.
Safe passage through the international waterway remained intact today as 55 merchant ships transited, moving large amounts of cargo and more than 17 million barrels of oil to global markets," CENTCOM wrote on X on Saturday morning.
Kpler:
Hormuz uptick remains fragile
Strait of Hormuz crossings rebounded sharply over 19–21 June, with 71 confirmed transits and a weekend peak of 35 on 20 June, supported by the blockade lift and renewed free-passage signals. Commercial crossings recovered with AIS transponder ons,… pic.twitter.com/2YnT6kTnU3
Windward:
🚨 Strait of Hormuz Status Update | June 22
Windward tracked 25 vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz over the past 12 hours: 10 inbound and 15 outbound.
Notable traffic:
→ Multiple OFAC-sanctioned tankers linked to Iran's sanctions program transiting outbound,… pic.twitter.com/D4Czk5ygVl
Several India-linked tankers carrying roughly 6 million barrels of Iraqi and Kuwaiti crude appeared to have used the Iran-approved northern route near Qeshm Island, possibly before Iran's latest closure announcement on Sunday.
A separate report from Bloomberg says four liquefied natural gas tankers - either owned or chartered by Qatar - transited the narrow waterway as the restart of Ras Laffan, the world's biggest LNG export plant, begins to ramp up.
Even Iran has ramped up oil exports, as three US-sanctioned supertankers (Elva, Virgo, and Vigor) entered the Hormuz chokepoint earlier this morning. Those tankers are destined for Singapore, with likely ship-to-ship transfers slated for the end delivery in China. This comes as the US lifts the blockade on the waterway against Iran.
Bloomberg data shows that total ship transits (using AIS data) in the maritime chokepoint, whether east-west or west-east, have steadily increased since an interim peace deal between the US and Iran was signed earlier last week.
Citi analyst Luis Costa told clients earlier that "the dominant global macro driver remains the US-Iran conflict and its partial resolution. Announcement of the interim Hormuz MOU last week set off a cascading repricing across oil, EM FX, inflation expectations, and rate paths."
Brent crude futures traded in the $79 a barrel range early Monday, while WTI futures were around $75.
Talk on Hormuz normalization this morning comes from Piper Sandler analyst Jan Stuart: "The 14-point 'peace-in-our-time MoU' unblocks some 150+ million barrels of stranded crude oil, now available for immediate sale."
Related:
On Friday, Daan Struyven, Goldman Sachs' co-head of Global Commodities Research, told clients, "We now assume that Persian Gulf exports normalize to pre- war levels by the end of July."
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Russian Drone Strike Sets Turkish Cargo Ship Ablaze In Black Sea, Killing One
An international cargo vessel traversing the Black Sea erupted in flames when it was struck by a Russian drone attack early Monday morning, killing one crew member.
The Turkish-owned bulk carrier VICTRESS, which sails under a Panamanian flag, suffered severe damage, the Ukrainian Navy and the Ukrainian Sea Ports Authority (USPA) confirmed in the aftermath.
Ukrainian naval image of Turkish vessel up in flames.A maritime rescue operation ensued fairly quickly, with most of the crew evacuated safely to a life raft; however, a 58-year old crew member perished.
“Sadly, a member of the crew died. We extend our sincere condolences to his family and loved ones. The remaining eight sailors were evacuated on a life raft,” the USPA said.
Such Black Sea deadly drone incidents against foreign vessels off Ukraine are on the uptick. For example just a couple days ago regional sources reported:
Ukrainian officials reported that Russian drones targeted two civilian merchant vessels in the Black Sea, one flying Panama’s flag and the other St. Kitts and Nevis’. A sailor aboard the Panama-flagged ship was killed, two were injured—one critically—while three crew on the St. Kitts and Nevis vessel sustained minor injuries. Both ships resumed their voyages after receiving assistance, but the incident underscores the vulnerability of civilian shipping in contested waters.
Black Sea transit continues to be a dangerous prospect, also with naval mines long being a feature of the 4+ year long war.
Because of this, international reports have frequently noted at various moments of the last couple years, "War insurance costs for ships sailing to the Black Sea have spiked again, with insurers reviewing policies daily as the conflict in Ukraine spills into sea lanes."
But the attacks have gone the other way too, with Ukraine's Navy at various times having intercepted or attacked vessels deemed part of Russia's sanctions-evading 'dark fleet'.
⚡️ Russian drones struck civilian vessels bound for Ukrainian ports in the Black Sea
According to Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister Oleksii Kuleba, a drone attack set a Panama-flagged cargo ship on fire. A 58-year-old Egyptian cook was killed, while eight crew members, including… pic.twitter.com/6Y0fy6M8rj
After some of these recent attacks on Russia-importing or exporting vessels, President Putin vowed to step up punishing aerial attacks on Ukraine. The two sides are still locked in a devastating tit-for-tat aerial war.
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Is The AI Spending Boom Creating A Depreciation Time Bomb?
Via City AM,
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Big Tech's AI spending has exploded, with Google, Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta collectively investing hundreds of billions of dollars in infrastructure.
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Rapid technological change may shorten the economic life of AI servers and GPUs, increasing depreciation and replacement costs.
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The long-term profitability of AI will depend not only on demand growth but also on whether companies can justify the enormous ongoing capital requirements.
The eye-watering capital expenditure plans of Big Tech has been one of the year’s biggest stories.
Google, Meta, Amazon, and Microsoft have all splurged to secure a podium spot in the race to build out the infrastructure that will run the artificial intelligence (AI) revolution.
Total capex by these four firms is expected to reach $750bn (£560bn) this year, around half the annual spending of the entire UK government. It is much higher than this high-tech quartet has budgeted for before. And it is expected to be even higher next year.
Shareholders are on board with the plan, up to a point.
Since 2023, the average share price across the four firms has doubled. But that hasn’t kept pace with the average quarterly capex budgets, which have roughly quadrupled over the same period.
These trillion-dollar businesses can’t be too far away from hitting a ceiling on growing their computing power.
Firstly, because of physical constraints – things like the supply of chips and the availability of power and water infrastructure – with the latter beginning to come under genuine constraint in some parts of the developed world.
Secondly, because of the sheer build cost, given that most AI projects are far from hitting profitability, and there isn’t enough cash flow elsewhere to fill the hole.
Alphabet, Google’s parent company, has raised $85bn on its own in debt over the past year. It plans to raise another $80bn in equity over the coming months – an unprecedented fundraise and not something it can keep doing forever.
Getting older fasterMost of the focus has been on data centre build-out. But there is also another major factor, and one in danger of being overlooked: maintenance.
The cost of keeping AI running once the infrastructure is in place will be vital.
Data centre servers tend to last in the region of three to six years before they have to be replaced. Given the speed of innovation and intensity of compute needed for AI, you can expect that to skew towards the lower end of the range for the hyperscalers.
The kit inside AI data centres accounts for as much as two-thirds of the build cost. Add replacement costs onto the capex projections over the next few years, and things start to look scarily expensive.
Annual depreciation of property and equipment across the four firms has almost doubled over the past two years to $116bn. You can expect that to accelerate, given how much equipment has been added to their balance sheets over the past 18 months.
Last year, Amazon cut the expected useful life of its data centre assets from six years to five, a move which it said was “due to the increased pace of technology development, particularly in the area of artificial intelligence and machine learning.”
So far, Meta, Microsoft, and Alphabet have yet to follow suit, sticking with six years, but it seems like only a matter of time before they capitulate and cut this back, pushing up depreciation costs even further.
Something has got to give – sooner or later. Or am I missing something?
Tyler Durden Mon, 06/22/2026 - 06:30