By Tsvetana Parskova of OilPrice.com
Crude cargo arrivals in Asia from the Middle East could accelerate in the coming weeks as more than 60 million barrels of oil stuck in the Persian Gulf prepare to exit the Strait of Hormuz and head to Asian markets once the chokepoint reopens to traffic.
About 62 million barrels of crude oil on nearly three dozen supertankers are expected to make their way to Asia within weeks after the Strait reopens, according to Signal Group data carried by Bloomberg.
Asia, which felt the supply shock first and the most as early as in March, could now see a wave of much-delayed crude supply that would weigh on prices. Refiners in Asia, including China, have slashed run rates in response to the loss of supply from the Middle East and the high prices to procure alternative cargoes.
The supply waiting to exit the Strait of Hormuz could prompt some refiners to increase processing rates or opt for replenishing commercial stock tanks that have been drawn down over the past three months.
Asia, however, appears to have stocked up on enough supply at least for June and July after turning to West Africa and South and North America to offset the losses from the Middle East.
Asian refiners are well-supplied for the coming weeks, anonymous traders with knowledge of the situation told Bloomberg.
The expected imminent reopening of the Strait of Hormuz has prompted investment banks to slash their oil price forecasts for this year and next.
Morgan Stanley, for example, now sees Brent crude averaging $80 per barrel in the last quarter of 2026, and $90 per barrel in the third quarter. The bank’s earlier forecast was for an average of $100 per barrel of Brent in the third quarter, while the fourth-quarter price forecast was unchanged.
Goldman Sachs cut its price forecast for the fourth quarter to $80 per barrel from $90 per barrel, and the 2027 average forecast for Brent crude to $75 per barrel from $80 in earlier forecasts. According to the bank’s commodity analysts, tanker traffic via the Strait of Hormuz would recover fully by the end of July.
Tyler Durden Thu, 06/18/2026 - 14:05Earlier this week, we showed the unprecedented pace of hyperscaler Investment Grade debt accumulation, which according to Morgan Stanley calculations had doubled in just two quarters, rising from 0.9x leverage in Q3 '25 to 1.8x currently, a pace that has already surpassed the entire energy sector's gross leverage of 1.6%.
SourceWe predicted that this staggering growth rate would continue increasing at a pace of over 0.3x per quarter, and moments ago we got another confirmation of the insatiable demand for AI debt when Bloomberg reported that just days after the biggest ever Initial Public Offering in history, bankers for SpaceX are preparing to hold calls with investors as soon as next week to discuss a potential bond offering.
The bond is expected to be at least $20 billion, and the investor calls may kick off on Monday. Plans and timing may change of the offering may yet change, according to Bloomberg.
SpaceX plans to issue investment-grade bonds for the first time, adding to the already overheating IG calendar. The bond proceeds would refinance a temporary $20 billion bridge loan that matures in September 2027. The bridge loan makes up the bulk of SpaceX’s $29.1 billion of long-term debt as of March 31, the company said in its IPO prospectus.
Bank of America, Citigroup, JPMorgan, Goldman and Morgan Stanley provided the bridge financing and are expected to run the bond deal .
SpaceX’s historic IPO turned the start-up into one of the world’s most valuable public companies and turned its founder into the world’s first trillionaire (although the stock is sliding today, down 10% at one point as momentum left the stock to go back to its preferred memory momentum names). The company’s embrace of AI with the acquisition of Musk’s xAI in February made the listing somewhat of a referendum on the IPO prospects of competitors Anthropic and OpenAI, both of which are expected to go public as soon as this year.
The bottom line here is that literally every company is now rushing to issue as much debt (and equity) as the market will possibly absorb, as it is only a matter of time before the debt, and thus capex, window closes.
As Goldman Delta-1 head Rich Privorotsky wrotes, "everyone still appears convinced they must keep spending simply to remain competitive, while token cost compression/advent of neoclouds puts pricing pressure on core business. If token prices continue to compress alongside falling compute costs, the benefits may accrue to users faster than providers. Ironically, the first hyperscaler to signal that it can slow the pace of spending will likely see its share price rewarded (and will crush semiconductor stocks). If that happens, others will take notice. That is the reflexivity that ultimately stalls the capex cycle… not a lack of demand, but investors deciding that incremental returns on the next dollar of spend are no longer attractive."
Privo's conclusion: "Watch hyperscalers share price as leading indicator."
Tyler Durden Thu, 06/18/2026 - 13:50Summary:
U.S. CENTCOM says U.S. Naval Blockade on Hormuz has been "Lifted"
Kuwait Petroleum CEO says Energy Production to Ramp in a Week
Iran Media says Southern Ports Traffic Begins Normalizing
Hormuz Normalization Begins As Saudi Supertankers Exit And A Flood Of Persian Gulf Oil Heads For Asia
The roughly two-month U.S. naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has officially ended, according to U.S. Central Command on X. This marks a major de-escalation in the Gulf region, as early signs point to the beginning of normalization of energy flows through the critical waterway by tankers.
"Today, U.S. forces lifted the blockade on all maritime traffic entering and exiting Iranian ports and coastal areas, in accordance with the President's direction," CENTCOM said.
CENTCOM continued, "American forces are not impeding the transit of vessels to or from Iranian ports on the Arabian Gulf and Gulf of Oman. All U.S. military blockade enforcement efforts have ceased. Our great Naval Ships will remain in the general area to make sure that all aspects of the agreement are adhered to, obeyed and in full force and effect."
Today, U.S. forces lifted the blockade on all maritime traffic entering and exiting Iranian ports and coastal areas, in accordance with the President's direction. American forces are not impeding the transit of vessels to or from Iranian ports on the Arabian Gulf and Gulf of…
— U.S. Central Command (@CENTCOM) June 18, 2026Hormuz flows are still muted.
Searching For Hormuz Normalization SignalsAttention on institutional desks is shifting toward normalization signals at the Strait of Hormuz maritime chokepoint.
At the time of writing at least 14 transits through the Strait of Hormuz were recorded on Thursday June 18 - up from just 2 on the same day last week pic.twitter.com/qcWLrWewCy
— Lloyd's List (@LloydsList) June 18, 2026Earlier, we detailed how Saudi supertankers were beginning to exit the narrow waterway bound for Asia, while also noting that a massive backlog of tankers remains poised to exit the Persian Gulf as the reopening process gets underway.
Bloomberg, citing the semi-official Iranian Students' News Agency, reported that commercial vessel traffic at southern ports is moving toward normalization, with vessels carrying critical goods arriving and two tankers departing.
A separate Bloomberg story quoted Kuwait Petroleum Corp. CEO Sheikh Nawaf Al-Sabah, who said in an interview that Kuwaiti output is expected to exceed 2 million barrels a day within a week.
"We anticipate that we can exceed 2 million barrels a day within one week from now." Nawaf Al-Sabah.
He added, "And that pending availability of international commercial shipping, to reach Kuwaiti ports, we should be able to resume pre-war production within a matter of weeks."
At pre-conflict levels, Kuwait was producing 2.5 million barrels a day, but has since slumped to as low as half a million barrels a day.
Related:
Earlier, BofA Global Research's commodity team slashed its 2026E Brent forecast to $82/bbl from $ 93/bbl, citing a flood of crude set to hit the global market in the coming weeks and months as Hormuz normalization ramps up.
"The team has also cut its 2027E Brent forecast to US$70/bbl from US$78/bbl with a surplus of 1.1mb/d forecast during the year," BofA analysts said.
Hormuz Normalization Begins As Saudi Supertankers Exit And A Flood Of Persian Gulf Oil Heads For AsiaEnergy flows through the Strait of Hormuz are beginning to restart on Thursday after the interim U.S.-Iran peace deal, with several Saudi-controlled supertankers transiting the critical waterway and exiting the Persian Gulf.
There is a massive backlog of crude and LNG tankers in the Persian Gulf, preparing to exit the Hormuz chokepoint bound for Asia. Bloomberg says 31 supertankers, carrying about 62 million barrels of crude, could soon exit.
The actual number of crude and LNG tankers preparing to exit could be much higher, as some tankers may turn off their transponders. Once exited, many of those tankers are slated for ports in East Asia and will take roughly three weeks to arrive.
One of the key developments overnight was that three Saudi-controlled supertankers, including Bahri-controlled Saudi VLCCs Shaden, Jaham, and Awtad, switched on their transponders and began exiting the Persian Gulf.
Maritime traffic remains far below normal levels and could take many months to return to normal.
"There are certain practical steps that we believe are necessary before the vessels that have been stranded in the Gulf for the last 110 days can resume transiting the Strait of Hormuz," Sheila Cameron, CEO, and Neil Roberts, head of marine and aviation at the Lloyd's Market Association, told Bloomberg in a statement.
Cameron continued, "The main requirement for recovery is stability and certainty for shipowners and insurers. The road to recovery in the Gulf will be a long and complicated one. It will take months for some sort of normality to return to international shipping with vessels in the wrong place and supply chains distorted."
Daan Struyven, Goldman Sachs' co-head of Global Commodities Research, told clients, "We now assume that Persian Gulf exports normalize to pre- war levels by the end of July."
On Thursday morning, Brent crude futures fell below $78, while West Texas Intermediate was near $74. Traders are already pricing in the coming flood of seaborne crude.
Dubai and Murban crude futures curves have flipped into contango, Oman crude is trading at a discount to Dubai, and some diesel cargoes are trading below benchmark levels after commanding lofty premiums.
The first signs of normalization are already visible, following President Trump's acknowledgment on Wednesday at the G7 Summit that the interim peace deal with Iran to reopen Hormuz was signed as the U.S. was nearing the point of "running out of reserves in about four weeks."
*Trump Says `We Run Out of Reserves in About Four Weeks'
we know, but maybe not the smartest thing to admit https://t.co/N28eXJih5e
Struyven noted that even if the expected "normalization" occurs by the end of next month, flows may recover to only 70% of pre-war levels ...
Latest overnight headlines (courtesy of Bloomberg):
US-Iran Peace Deal
• President Trump signed an interim peace deal with Iran on Wednesday evening at the Palace of Versailles, following the G7 summit
• The deal is now in effect and was signed electronically by both presidents, according to US and Iranian officials
• The memorandum of understanding opens the way for 60 days of negotiations on Iran's nuclear program and other issues
• Iran will receive sanctions waivers allowing it to sell oil immediately and gain access to a $300 billion economic development program
• Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said the US can reimpose an ironclad blockade if Iran doesn't comply with the deal
Strait of Hormuz Reopening
• Three Saudi supertankers carrying about six million barrels of oil exited the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday, marking the first Saudi-owned crude tankers to cross since the war began
• A laden LNG carrier and an empty products tanker crossed the Strait of Hormuz early Thursday, sailing along a route approved by Tehran for safe passages
• Qatar brought an empty LNG tanker back into the Persian Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz for the first time since the war began on Thursday
• Goldman Sachs estimates oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz may recover to only about 70% of pre-war levels, with normalization potentially completed by the end of next month
Economic Impact
• US gasoline prices fell below $4 a gallon on Thursday for the first time since March, down from a May peak above $4.50
Deal Criticism and Complications
• Trump faced pushback from Republicans who object to the deal and the billions of dollars set to flow to Tehran
• Trump brushed aside several red lines on Wednesday, suggesting Iran should have the right to enrich uranium, develop ballistic missiles and access frozen funds
• Israel rejected a US request to withdraw troops from southern Lebanon, citing continued presence of Hezbollah, threatening to complicate broader peace efforts
Iran Leadership Investigation
• The US Justice Department is conducting a probe into how Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei built a global investment portfolio with exposure to Wall Street banks, examining allegations of money laundering and corruption
Related Legal Developments
• A federal judge allowed the Justice Department to drop a criminal case against Turkish state-owned Halkbank on Wednesday for allegedly helping Iran evade US sanctions
Tyler Durden Thu, 06/18/2026 - 13:20