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TV’s latest hits show nepo baby summer is in full swing: Kaia Gerber, Homer Gere and more

NY Post
2 months ago
The summer's hottest shows are filled with celebrity offspring, including the children of Cindy Crawford, Richard Gere, Bryan Cranston and more.
mliss1578

TV’s latest hits show nepo baby summer is in full swing: Kaia Gerber, Homer Gere and more

NY Post
2 months ago
The summer's hottest shows are filled with celebrity offspring, including the children of Cindy Crawford, Richard Gere, Bryan Cranston and more.
Lauren Sarner

California police clap back at John Oliver as comedian clutches pearls over department policy

NY Post
2 months ago
The police department blasted the "Last Week Tonight" host after he criticized the agency's use of privately owned security cameras.
Daniel Farr

Past-due tuition? Here are your best options for repayment in 2026

NY Post
2 months ago
Speed is of the essence.
Will Kenton

Turkey, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia sign mutual defense deal — as Israeli strike injures Lebanese soldier

NY Post
2 months ago
The deal stipulates that an armed attack on either of the three countries will be regarded as an attack against them all.
Associated Press

QR Codes are Developing into Dynamic Real-World Business Assets

NY Post
2 months ago
QR codes are reshaping how these tools can be used by small businesses and freelancers.
Ethan Stone

Popular chain restaurant pisses off customers for going cashless: ‘I’ll never eat there again’

NY Post
2 months ago
Cash is no longer king.
Aurielle Weiss

Earth Wind & Fire band member in ‘critical condition’ after ‘cardiac incident’ before show cancellation: report

NY Post
2 months ago
An Earth, Wind & Fire band member is in "critical condition" after they needed to be hospitalized for a "cardiac incident" Thursday night in San Francisco, fire officials told TMZ.
Ross O'Keefe

Brain-swelling disease carried by mosquitos is surging — with highest numbers so far in 22 years

NY Post
2 months ago
Cases will continue to climb, as August has historically been the month where most cases appear.
Allie Yang

Bloodbath at LiveNation-owned alt-music pubs that saw multiple outlets lose nearly their entire staff

NY Post
2 months ago
There were "mass layoffs" at a series of hip music sites — BrooklynVegan, Alternative Press, Revolver and Goldmine — this week.
mliss1578

Knicks draft pick Jack Kayil makes decision on NBA future

NY Post
2 months ago
The 20-year-old was with the Knicks at Summer League.
Jared Schwartz

Houston, We Have A (Data) Problem...

Zero Rss
2 months ago
Houston, We Have A (Data) Problem...

Authored by Peter Tchir via Academy Securities,

Normally, you can find some parts of the job report that “fight” against the headline. That somewhere in the details is a potentially different narrative.

Maybe it’s because I’m lazy on a summer Friday, but difficult to see what it is in this report.

But let’s start with the most important point

Instead of worrying about Warsh, what he did or didn’t say, how often he might or might not say things, to who he may or may not speak to, maybe we should worry about making decisions based on garbage data?

As you know, I’ve argued for years that it seems insane that in this day and age, where we have real time data on almost every aspect of our lives, we are content to kind of stick a finger in the air, and take a wild stab at estimating jobs. I think the data source task force is the most important (and potentially useful thing Warsh has created). The data task force is too limited in scope, if anything.

Establishment headline is -23k. Estimate was 80k.

Revisions for past two months were -103k! Maybe the estimate would not have been for 80k, if the initial reports for the prior months reflected reality and didn’t need to be revised lower?

Not sure this is “good” news for the workers, but wage growth was anemic (even as the renewed fighting in the Middle East is pushing up the price of energy products).

The unemployment rate has dropped from 4.3% to 4.1% in the past two months. On the surface, maybe that is good. But the unemployment rate is based on the household survey which had a loss of 87k this month, which is “better” than last month’s loss of 507k jobs. The 4 month total number of jobs in the household survey is month than 600,000 lost jobs! The unemployment rate is only lower because the participation rate has dropped from 61.8% to 61.4% in two months (let’s not forget, this is occurring with record cap ex on data center/AI build).

Okay, now my “favorite” the birth/death model. I will admit I’m not sure how the seasonally adjusted birth/death model translates into a number of jobs in the establishment survey, but this “model” showed 235k jobs added by new businesses being formed. Maybe companies are being formed to take advantage of the AI/Data Center spend. It is in line with last July’s birth/death adjustment, so maybe it didn’t impact things. But I always struggle when “plugs” or “models” seem to be bigger than the actual numbers.

Honestly, I have no idea if today’s numbers are the aberration or whether it was what was originally reported, but that is the point!

How are we making decisions based on data that seems to be a wild guess (apologies to wild guesses)?

Sure, if there is no way to get better, more accurate, timely data, then we’d have to live with it. We had to live with carrier pigeons at one time.

I find it difficult to believe that a nation that put astronauts on the moon, cannot figure out a better way to calculate data that is so crucial to decision making!

So, yes, Houston, we have a problem, but the bigger problem isn’t today’s numbers, it is that we don’t really know what numbers are correct or not!

On the other hand, my view that we don’t see a hike this year looks better today, than it did a week ago (and that is with no “deal” in Iran, which any deal, will also help).

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/07/2026 - 09:40
Tyler Durden

Mamdani booed off stage in under a minute at NYPD event

NY Post
2 months ago
New York City mayoral candidate Zohran Mamdani was loudly booed during an appearance at an NYPD event on Staten Island, leaving the stage in under a minute as members of the crowd jeered and chanted. The tense reception underscored the strained relationship between Mamdani and many in law enforcement.
New York Post Video

Annelise Camp, 2, dies after Memorial Day hotel pool drowning incident sparked legal battle

NY Post
2 months ago
A 2-year-old girl has died a little over two months after she almost drowned on Memorial Day at a Houston hotel pool.
Chris Bradford

Look cool, stay cool in this quick-dry polo — now under $15

NY Post
2 months ago
Say goodbye to sweat stains.
Carrie Berk

‘Overwhelmed’ Ariana Grande ends North American leg of tour as break looms

NY Post
2 months ago
Last week, the pop star's rep revealed she will be taking a break from the spotlight once her tour comes to and end.
mliss1578

‘Overwhelmed’ Ariana Grande ends North American leg of tour as break looms

NY Post
2 months ago
Last week, the pop star's rep revealed she will be taking a break from the spotlight once her tour comes to and end.
Jolie Zenna

Will There Be A Season 4 Of ‘My Life with the Walter Boys’ On Netflix? ‘My Life with the Walter Boys’ Season 4 Release Date Info

NY Post
2 months ago
Don't leave us hanging, Netflix!
mliss1578

Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelensky making first official visit to Russia-friendly Serbia

NY Post
2 months ago
The visit comes as Serbia’s populist President Aleksandar Vucic tries to balance the country's traditional ties with Moscow against pressure to align its foreign policy with the European Union.
Associated Press

Trump turns up heat on California campuses with antisemitism crackdown

NY Post
2 months ago
California’s embattled public universities are back in the Trump administration’s crosshairs. The Department of Education on Thursday launched federal civil rights investigations into two deep-blue state schools, San Jose State University and San Francisco State University, over allegations they allowed antisemitism to flourish while Jewish students were threatened, isolated and driven into fear on campus....
Daniel Farr

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News feeds

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  • Welfare State Meets Mr. Bond Market: Rising Yields Put Socialism's Promises On Borrowed Time
  • America Let China Outbuild The U.S. Navy, And Is Now Scrambling To Close The Gap
  • "Full-On Truman Show": Former State Dept. Official Exposes USAID's Censorship Machine In Brazil
  • 3 Cents On The Dollar: Hedge Funds Gorge On LA Fire Claims As Sacramento’s Crackdown Goes Up In Smoke
  • The Obama Death Star Is Out Of Hope
  • Oil Rises After MidEast Attacks Spread And Escalate, Stoking Supply Fears
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