Authored by Matthew Piepenburg via VonGreyerz.gold,
Never in my 30+ years in the markets have I seen a monetary, precious metal and risk-asset setup more obvious yet more deliberately ignored than today.
Below, we look at the converging signposts screaming from the tech/AI sector and the equally obvious (yet deliberately downplayed) signals from a precious metals market entering a watershed turning point.
How the Whales Do Their “Magic”As warned for years, and more recently here at the precious metals symposium in Florida, the insider whales (central and commercial banks, the BIS, the IMF and the shadow banking canyons of Wall Street) are clever little magicians.
They have a devious talent for manipulating (and destroying) the retail plankton by having the masses focus on their right hand while quietly gut-punching them with a banker’s hidden left hand.
Another Classic Tech Pump-n-DumpTake, for example, the recent headlines from the tech sector in general and the AI rabbit hole in particular.
Despite a Fed-driven S&P which is historically over-valued by literally EVERY core valuation metric, all eyes of late had been salivating over the SpaceX IPO (trading at 100X revenues) and the Wall Street meme (and gambit) that AI will save the world.
This all-too familiar mania has been nothing short of hysterical—and for all the wrong reasons.
Behind this percolating, unprofitable and VC-funded madness lies (as always and as per usual) a cadre of over-levered banks sending/lending the markets at warp speed toward yet another debilitating credit (and then equity) crisis.
As warned in September of 2025, there’s much more to the AI “Great Dumbing” than just a wholesale slaughter of blue- and white-collar jobs.
In fact, a massive, contagious and AI-driven stock and bond bubble lies beneath the headlines which, with a little help from an equally toxic private credit and private equity threat, will soon send the global financial markets into yet another historical liquidity crisis.
As warned last year, the reckless over-investment by the Magnificent 7 “tech giants” (which comprise 1/3 of the US stock market cap) into the emerging AI mania “would soon move from over-bought to massively over-sold.”
AI: Hiding the Shameless Beneath the “Norm”The nature of this over-concentrated mismanagement almost defies belief, as the AI bubble is driven by circular financing sins which deserve no redemption.
NVDA, for example, which makes the microchips that drive AI, invests billions in AI startups, who then buy AI chips back from NVDA, pushing its valuations moonward.
Microsoft, Google and Amazon are no less shameless.
Microsoft, for example, will place billions into OpenAI, who then sends that same money right back into Microsoft.
Google equally invests hundreds of billions into Anthropic, who then sends those same billions back into Google’s AI infrastructure. Amazon, playing the same game, tosses equal capital levels to Anthropic, who in turn invests that money straight into Amazon’s cloud servicing coffers.
These “magnificent” tech giants then have the gall to report AI-driven “revenue growth” on what is little more than an insider puff-job, the equivalent of me “investing” (giving) my son $1000 and then asking him to return the cash and calling that my “growth model.”
This Familiar Movie Doesn’t End WellThis, of course, is madness, and we (along with Apollo Research) are reminding YOU that there is in fact NO sign that the tech sector is making any real money at all from AI, other than from the companies selling to each other.
This incestuous pattern is eerily reminiscent of CISCO selling routers to dot.com startups in the late 90’s, which were funded by VC companies who were themselves funded by CISCO.
And we all remember how that -78% NASDAQ movie ended…
As of 2026, we now see a Mag-7 which has, with the help of those ever-wise TBTF banks in NYC, levered trillions into an AI gambit under the assumption that AI will make them more profitable in much the same way those same pre-08 banks thought ABS-packaged sub-prime mortgages would never fail.
And we all know how that -57% S&P movie ended too…
What’s even scarier, and not making the headlines today, is that those same banks have also seen that movie before. (Remember “Margin Call”?) After sending global markets to their knees in 2008, those same banks then issued themselves their highest bonus levels in history…
As for today, banks like Goldman Sachs are giving the retail plankton “research reports” on how undeniably significant technology like AI will save the world and the S&P.
Meanwhile, those same banks, and most notably the ever-clever JP Morgan, are quietly dumping their AI credit (junk bonds?) at a steady pace—you know, like profiteering rats leaving a ship before it sinks from their own lending practices.
Elon’s Bond Woes…Folks, this is bad. But the hidden bad (as well as credit risk) doesn’t end in the oh-so magical AI sector. Elon’s SpaceX bonds are yet another tech-driven credit bug looking for a windshield.
Just after going public at a $1T valuation, SpaceX issued over $25B in bonds, and as of this writing, those bonds have already lost 10%.
We know that bonds are “boring” (and hence easily ignored). But as warned for years, the bond market is everything, and this latest credit signal from SpaceX is simply staggering in its implications.
Why?
Because those AI and SpaceX bonds (like those sub-prime ABS mortgages of the 2008 era) are likely part of your third-party-administered 401K and pension plans –just ticking away like a bad-debt time bomb as you read this.
From Crappy Bonds to Solid GoldIf the foregoing disconnect between media hype and hard math wasn’t bad enough, a far more lasting sea change in the global monetary system is unfolding right before our collectively closed eyes.
As the media and tourists/speculators (i.e., plankton) in the precious metals trade haggle over “peak gold” and decry short-term bear corrections in an otherwise obvious and misunderstood gold bull market, the big whales are calmly stacking metal in a deliberately manipulated fire sale as retail investors panic in the fog of daily price action.
Same Tricks, Different AssetBut again, this magic trick of blinding the plankton with hype/fear while the insider whales feast is nothing new.
The big banks from Wall Street to Hong Kong, as well as the central banks from Brazil to China, know that a UST and USD sinking under the weight of a 7% current accounts deficit and $3B/day in interest expenses on its $40T debt pile is no longer the world’s neutral collateral in actual practice.
This explains why there are more sellers than buyers of USTs.
And this explains why sovereign bond yields are the highest in decades.
This explains why central banks now hold more physical gold than USTs.
This also explains why the COMEX has been seeing two years of physical gold (and silver) flying out its doors faster than $#!T through a goose to meet foreign delivery demands. This equally explains why central bank gold stacking has increased by 5X since Biden weaponized the USD in 2022.
Finally, this fully explains why Q1 of 2026 saw central bank gold stacking reach its highest pace in history, and why central banks net-purchased 41 tons of gold in May alone.
Love or Hate Em’—China Sees the Bigger PictureAnd no one foresaw this incremental and now exponential decline in USD and UST hegemony better than the Chinese.
The PBOC just completed its 20th straight month of net gold-stacking, with a 15-ton purchase of gold in June.
Meanwhile, China imported more than 700 tons of the metal in the first 5 months of 2026 and over 14,000 tons since 2015.
Such farsighted preparation and strategic thinking (rather than flag-waving hopium) also explains why China’s largest bank, ICBC, along with four other major commercial banks, recently announced an end (effective July 24) of the paper trade (levered price fixing) of gold in favor of physical metal only—thereby undercutting (and giving a subtle middle-finger to) the paper-based farce of the NY COMEX exchange.
As the former head of the Shanghai exchange warned an overconfident West in 2014, soon China (with a partner in Hong Kong), rather than New York or London, would set the gold price, and this price will slowly become much fairer, and exponentially higher, when based on physical bars rather than paper claims.
In fact, much of that US gold is heading straight for China (see below), a nation that is essentially “de-paperizing” the gold market.
This obvious yet ignored direction of the golden “puck” also explains why Chinese citizens now invest more of their money into gold ETFs than stock ETFs.
In short, while Americans are being seduced by their “experts” into tech tops and scared out of gold-buys, the farsighted Chinese are encouraging their citizens to load up on real money rather than bad credit.
In short, each of the foregoing (and entirely media-ignored) signals confirm that China sees the longer-term direction of a gold-based monetary system(rather than gold-backed currency) far better than a debt-corned and media-misinformed West.
Rock Beats PaperIn this 2026 backdrop of trade, currency and now “hot” wars, China (and many other far-sighted nations and banks inside and outside of the BRICS+ coalition) are effectively loading their monetary guns with golden rather than paper bullets.
In other words, physical gold is no longer just another “asset,” “commodity,” or “metal” to compare against stocks, bonds or other “sectors.”
Gold is mathematically and objectively becoming the de facto global reserve asset and trusted collateral in a world now marked by an undeniable distrust in each other in general and the USD/UST in particular.
Building Their Arks Before the RainStated even more simply, the central banks and central planners are preparing for a new monetary system which no one at FOX News, the WSJ or CNBC wants the US “plankton class” to see or understand.
As usual, the whales are quietly stacking precious metals in a self-made fire-sale while the retail plankton decry current price volatility as if gold were just another tech stock.
For now, and as warned even at gold’s highs in January, volatility can continue. Prices never move in a straight line, and bearish corrections are typical of secularly bullish turning points to shake out the minnows to enrich the bigger fish.
But for those who see the bigger picture (and direction) for gold, the question is not whether one times a bottom or waits for the perfect entry (a total mug’s game).
The real question is whether or not you see this generational turning point in the global monetary system and are building your golden ark before or after the rain?
Based on the signals above, the rain has already started, and the big boys are now busily building their arks. They are not looking at gold’s paper price today or tomorrow, but at gold’s physical and exponentially higher price, direction and role in the many years ahead.
Such knowledge confirms that if you grasp the history and math of gold, and posses the patience of an investor rather than a trader, this broke(n) world is literally handing you the greatest asset (and buy signal) in a generation—and one which will ensure and protect generations of wealth in the years to come.
This is not a “gold bug” fable but historical fact.
Tyler Durden Tue, 07/21/2026 - 06:30Blackstone, the world's largest alternative asset manager, is making a big investment in Futronic, a 33-year-old automotive supplier whose motion-control technology has been adapted for industrial and humanoid robots, according to Reuters.
The deal values the South Korean firm at about 1 trillion won ($676.04 million), according to a person with knowledge of the matter. -RTRS
The deal comes just ahead of the expected rise of physical AI, with forecasts from top desks indicating that global robot deliveries could begin ramping up later this year before accelerating more materially in 2027.
A recent Deutsche Bank report shows that global shipments are poised to surge.
Latest coverage:
We previously provided readers with the report "Current State Of Physical AI: Everything You Need To Know," offering a way to gain exposure to the industrial automation and humanoid robotics space. Read the full note here.
To sum up, the Blackstone deal suggests that the asset manager is positioning for the rise of physical AI, aiming to capture alpha through the company that produces actuators, motors, sensors, controllers, and other mechatronic systems.
Tyler Durden Tue, 07/21/2026 - 05:45Authored by Alex Kimani via OilPrice.com,
Scientists have identified the root causes of solid-state battery failures, discovering that internal pressure cracks the electrolyte while electrical imbalances trigger lithium growth that causes short circuits.
The findings could accelerate commercialization by turning a long-standing scientific mystery into a solvable engineering challenge.
Automakers including Toyota, Honda, Mercedes-Benz, and BMW are investing billions in solid-state batteries, with commercial EV deployments targeted for the second half of this decade
Scientists now know why solid-state batteries have repeatedly failed. Two separate studies have identified the physical processes responsible for the short circuits that have delayed commercialization for years, turning one of the industry’s biggest unknowns into a defined engineering problem.
For years, engineers knew how solid-state batteries were failing, but not why. The batteries repeatedly developed internal short circuits as microscopic lithium structures formed inside the cell and eventually pierced the barrier separating the battery’s positive and negative sides. Researchers could see what was happening after the fact, but they couldn’t explain what caused those structures to form or how they managed to penetrate a material specifically designed to block them.
Two independent research teams have now answered different parts of that question. In a paper published in Nature, scientists at Germany’s Max Planck Institute for Sustainable Materials found that lithium deposits generate enormous internal pressure during charging, eventually cracking the solid electrolyte from within.
Separately, researchers from MIT, the Technical University of Munich, and collaborating institutions reported in Nature Nanotechnology that tiny electrical imbalances inside the electrolyte create the conditions that allow the unwanted lithium structures to begin growing.
The findings could remove a major scientific uncertainty just as automakers and battery manufacturers are investing billions of dollars to bring solid-state batteries into commercial production.
Manufacturers Aren’t Waiting AroundSolid-state batteries are widely regarded as the next major advance in battery technology because they promise to deliver longer driving ranges, faster charging, improved safety, and higher energy density than today’s lithium-ion batteries.
Replacing the liquid electrolyte with a solid material also reduces the risk of overheating and allows manufacturers to pack more energy into the same physical space, making the technology attractive not only for EVs, but also for aviation, defense, and grid-scale energy storage.
The repeated failures never convinced the auto industry that solid-state batteries were unworkable. Instead, manufacturers chose to view them as engineering problems that could be solved eventually.
The prize was simply too large to ignore because, compared with today’s lithium-ion batteries, solid-state promises higher energy density, faster charging, improved safety, and longer driving ranges. Manufacturers appear convinced that solid-state is what will completely reshape the EV industry.
Manufacturers have turned that faith into billions of dollars in investment.
Honda has already built a demonstration production line to develop the manufacturing techniques needed for mass production. Toyota continues targeting commercial deployment later this decade, while Mercedes-Benz, BMW, Stellantis, Hyundai, Samsung SDI, CATL, QuantumScape, Solid Power, and Factorial Energy have all expanded pilot production, strategic partnerships, or vehicle testing programs despite the technology’s unresolved scientific challenges.
Honda has spent approximately $280 million on a 27,400-square-meter solid-state battery production line in Sakura City, Japan. The facility replicates the full manufacturing process, from mixing and coating electrode materials through cell formation and module assembly. Battery production was scheduled to begin in January 2025, with Honda testing production costs, cell specifications, and mass-manufacturing methods ahead of vehicle deployment in the second half of the decade.
Honda is using roll-pressing to compress the solid electrolyte during assembly, reducing microscopic air gaps that impede ion transport while simplifying large-scale manufacturing. The company is also developing thinner cooling systems made possible by the greater thermal stability of solid-state batteries, reducing both battery weight and manufacturing complexity.
Mercedes-Benz has already put a solid-state battery on public roads. Earlier this year, the company unveiled a modified EQS equipped with lithium-metal cells supplied by Factorial Energy. During testing, the vehicle traveled 1,205 kilometers between Stuttgart and Malmö on a single charge and finished the journey with 137 kilometers of estimated range remaining.
BMW is testing large-format Solid Power cells in an i7 on public roads around Munich. The program is examining cell expansion, operating pressure, and temperature control inside a complete vehicle pack. BMW has also licensed Solid Power’s production technology for a prototype cell line at its Cell Manufacturing Competence Center in Parsdorf.
Idemitsu is constructing a large pilot facility to manufacture sulfide solid electrolytes, one of the most important elements of Toyota’s next-generation batteries. The plant will produce lithium sulfide using sulfur recovered from petroleum refining before converting it into solid electrolyte material for automotive batteries. Toyota plans to begin commercial production of vehicles using the technology during 2027-2028.
What’s Next?The solid-state mystery has been replaced with a design problem.
Researchers now know that preventing electrolyte fractures and suppressing localized current concentrations will determine whether solid-state batteries can survive repeated charging cycles outside the laboratory.
But commercialization isn’t a given. Once the now-known problems are engineered out, it will be up to manufacturers to prove that solid-state batteries can be produced consistently at automotive scale, withstand thousands of charging cycles, and reach cost levels that compete with today’s lithium-ion batteries. That’s why companies continue to invest hundreds of millions of dollars into pilot production lines years before mass-market vehicles arrive.
Toyota still expects to introduce its first solid-state batteries during 2027-2028. Honda is targeting the second half of the decade. Mercedes-Benz, BMW, and several battery manufacturers have already moved from laboratory cells to vehicles operating on public roads. This is about to become an industrial race.
Tyler Durden Tue, 07/21/2026 - 05:00The Farnborough International Airshow kicked off on Monday and is one of the world's largest aerospace, aviation and defense trade shows. It is held every two years at Farnborough Airport in Hampshire.
A Reuters report says that a bipartisan group of nine US senators urged allied European defense giants to expand production, as there is soaring demand for missiles, bombs, drones, and interceptors, and as Congress moves to boost defense spending.
"Our message is encouragement to them to increase their capabilities to send the message that the demand signal is for real," said Republican Senator Jerry Moran at the airshow.
Moran said, "We are doing the things in Congress that suggest that the demand is only going to grow."
"We need more demand to meet the demand for protecting our country." He said the event allows lawmakers to talk, especially with Europeans, "to reiterate and recommit ourselves that the United States wants to participate in a global economy and global national security."
Democratic Senator Jeanne Shaheen said that the group of senators represents a large swath of the US, where the aerospace industry is a large part of the local GDP.
Shaheen noted that the US had its biggest presence ever at Farnborough. She added that China has had an increasing presence at a separate air show in Paris.
Drone wars! At Farnborough air show this year, US companies are out in force showing off their autonomous fighter planes.
In order: Anduril has Fury, Boeing has the (Aussie) Ghost Bat, General Dynamics has Gambit.
But where is the British contender? TBC… pic.twitter.com/Z67yRgJSlk
"The fact that we have such a large presence is important not just to America's industry but also to the partnerships that we need to have around the world to not only improve our economic security but our national security," Shaheen said.
Other exhibits:
Good morning from Farnborough International Airshow 2026. 🇬🇧 Are you ready?
This is what you can expect this week:
🔴 The versatile airlifter: The Royal Air Force’s A400M will be on static display.
⚪️ The uncrewed drone interceptor: The Bird of Prey is Airbus’ answer to one-way… pic.twitter.com/rFuoy3xTbM
Bayraktar TB3’ün Avrupa Adı Belli Oldu: “Astore LEVANTE”
Leonardo ve BAYKAR’ın ortak şirketi LBA Systems, Bayraktar TB3 SİHA’yı “Astore LEVANTE” adıyla İngiltere’de Farnborough Airshow’da sergiliyor.
— SİHA’da, Leonardo faydalı yükleri ile ROKETSAN ve BAYKAR mühimmatı…
Well this certainly looks like something out of Terminator. At the Farnborough International Airshow, Anduril Industries and Archer Aviation officially unveiled Thunder, a new Group 5 autonomous tiltrotor attack drone designed to serve as a "loyal wingman" for crewed military pic.twitter.com/49lyTIrRoa
— Boneyard Safari (@Boneyardsafari) July 20, 2026As we've explained previously, President Trump's war economy has accelerated amid a massive push to replenish missile and bomb stockpiles depleted by the ongoing conflict in the Gulf, as well as the Russia-Ukraine war. There is also a big push to procure ample supplies of low-cost drones and interceptors.
Ways to profit:
Eric Fanning, CEO of the Aerospace Industries Association, said US aerospace and defense exports have surged by as much as 25% over the past year. The industry supports more than two million US jobs.
"We are by far the global leaders," Fanning said.
Tyler Durden Tue, 07/21/2026 - 04:15The Trump administration has greenlit Saudi Arabia's nuclear enrichment project, but with no safeguards in place to prevent the development of a bomb, CNN reported on Friday.
The draft deal, viewed by the news outlet, showed Washington's support for Riyadh’s civilian nuclear program is still awaiting President Donald Trump’s signature, despite US-Saudi negotiations concluding in October.
via AFPUnnamed officials cited in the story indicated that the documents, which include the mandatory "123 agreement" and safeguards protocols, have not yet been sent to Congress, potentially for fear of bipartisan pushback.
It is unclear how long the president will wait, given Congress is likely to switch hands to a Democratic majority after the November elections, stymying his policy agenda.
Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and his advisors have long pushed for a deal that would allow them to enrich uranium, which they say the kingdom holds vast reserves of.
“We will enrich it and we will sell it and we will do a ‘yellowcake'," Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said last year, referring to a step in the process that comes after mining but before enrichment.
Nuclear umbrellaThe Saudi push to be included under the US’s nuclear umbrella was a key issue during the Saudi crown prince's visit to the White House in November last year. Days after Israel attacked Hamas negotiators in Qatar earlier in the year, Saudi Arabia signed a defence pact with Pakistan, the only nuclear-armed state in the Muslim world.
Pakistan is estimated to possess around 170 nuclear warheads. Saudi and Pakistani descriptions of the deal said it encompassed all military options.
The Americans’ nuclear talks with Saudi Arabia have been kept under tight wraps, but one former US intelligence official previously told Middle East Eye that the idea of extending protection to the kingdom could serve a purpose. “It would pull them out of the Pakistanis’ nuclear umbrella and make the Saudis feel better than the Qataris," he said at the time.
In February, the Trump administration notified Congress it is pursuing a civil nuclear pact with Riyadh that does not include non-proliferation safeguards it has traditionally imposed on countries to prevent them from developing nuclear weapons.
The language in the document also leaves room for Saudi Arabia to enrich uranium, as it stipulates “additional safeguards and verification measures to the most sensitive areas of potential nuclear cooperation" between the two countries, including enrichment and reprocessing, the report said.
A nuclear deal with Saudi Arabia that does not explicitly prohibit the kingdom’s potential to enrich uranium in the future would be much more transformative for the region than a separate deal for F-35 warplanes that the Trump administration is pursuing. In nuclear agreements with foreign governments, for example, the UAE, the US made cooperation conditional on commitments that they will not enrich uranium or reprocess spent nuclear fuel.
The UAE, Morocco and dozens of European and Asian countries have signed the so-called "123 Agreements" with the US. US law generally requires a 123 Agreement to be in force before licensing significant exports of US-origin nuclear material or equipment to a foreign country.
The reported deal would allow Saudi Arabia to enrich uranium domestically under a U.S.-Saudi nuclear cooperation agreement. Riyadh would sign a 123 agreement, but apparently without first adopting the IAEA Additional Protocol. https://t.co/G4X66hJRAq
— Nicole Grajewski (@NicoleGrajewski) July 19, 2026In addition to a 123 Agreement, US lawmakers have insisted that the US require Saudi Arabia to submit to what is called the "Additional Protocol", which allows the United Nations’ International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) additional access to nuclear facilities, data, and undeclared sites.
The UAE, the only other Gulf state to have officially partnered with the US in nuclear energy, signed the Additional Protocol to its IAEA agreement in 2009.
Reuters reported, however, that the Trump administration sent a preliminary report to some heads of congressional committees in November, which it is required to send if it is not pursuing the Additional Protocol. The Reuters report underscores how Trump is putting deal-making at the centre of his diplomacy, even if it means chafing at the traditional concerns of the US foreign policy establishment.
Tyler Durden Tue, 07/21/2026 - 03:30