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Escobar: The Calm Before The Showdown
Authored by Pepe Escobar via LewRockwell.com,
The only art that the Prince must totally master it's the art of war
- Machiavelli
The Supreme Warrior Wins Without Fighting
-Sun Tzu
This was supposed to be the calm before the storm. Where the Epstein Syndicate would schmooze the Global South gathered in New York for the - comatose - UN General Assembly and seduce them with assorted "gifts", wooing them away from the impending Great Debacle and deflecting attention from the breathtaking speed of the collapse of Pax Americana.
Cut to Wednesday, when we have Day One of the UN General Assembly Debate, with Neo-Crassus/Neo-Caligula/Goldfinger/Psycho Toddler supposed to deliver a speech.
On the same day, he meets with the Gulf petro-sheiks for what could become some sort of suicidal pact.
And then on Friday, Xi Dada in person comes to the U.S. on an official state visit. (Invisible) sparks are guaranteed to fly.
All that would guarantee that the nearly inevitable New Demented Offensive on Iran and the Axis of Resistance might be postponed for a few days.
But then hysteria re-reigned all over again, as panicked imperial stakeholders were faced with some startling facts on the ground, from zero Saudi oil exports and to "burn, baby burn" at Riyadh airport.
Cue to the thundering sound of scurrying bling bling cockroaches. They seem to realize that hitting Iran again, now, is beyond dangerous, as the escalation ladder will go totally out of control - complete with Tehran finishing off the scared-to-death petro-sheikhs.
So the cockroaches did find out, the hard way, that whatever happens Iran is bound to become the oil hegemon of the Persian Gulf.
Cue to Pakistan and Turkiye - the other two members of the dodgy as hell Mecca Defense Alliance - freaking out in tandem, promising to defend Saudi Arabia even physically.
For context, cut to Ansarallah spokesman Mohammad Al-Bukhaiti:
"By God, if Turkey or Pakistan get involved, we will strike them with an iron fist. And just as we are disciplining Saudi Arabia today, we will discipline them as well."
That was the polite advice from the elder al-Bukhaiti. The younger, Hussain, a journalist, was way more heavy metal: if Pakistan attacks Yemen, Yemen will not allow any Pakistani commercial ship to pass through the Red Sea; will launch a direct attack on Pakistan; and will consider Pakistan a Zionist partner.
How the House of Saud is going downIt's now Escalation Ladder A-Go-Go. The Energy Shock'n Awe is at hand. All buffers are gone; the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR); the Saudi East-West pipeline (for at least a month, maybe more); and China's methodical, hefty cut on oil imports.
What's left is the UAE's Fujairah - moving only 2 million barrels a day. But if the U.S. attacks the Axis of Resistance, that will also be gone in a flash.
Saudi Arabia cannot export oil and/or gas. So there's only one way out to Clumsy Lone Decider MbS; to surrender. Accept Yemen's terms. And expect the bill to include the 3 southern provinces stolen by the Brits and given to the Saudis in 1934.
No surrender means the very slim possibility of the House of Saud surviving at all.
Alastair Crooke, in fine form, nailed it to perfection. The Ansarallah/Yemeni Armed Forces lightning-fast campaign had been planned for as long as 7 years. Sana'a takes a very long view. This represents total Yemen ownership of the process; but with an outcome completely aligned with Tehran.
There's a stunning parallel with Afghanistan 5 years ago - a story I followed in detail. The then Ghani puppet government collapsed in only 10 days because of patient Pashtun tribal interconnection conducted under the aegis of Gen. Soleimani.
Now it's the same process, involving tribal Arabian leaders. It's an easy sell. The mongrel "Saudi" state was built around an ultra-sectarian Wahhabi nucleus, a bunch of illiterate camel-herding Bedouins, with a single family monopolizing the money, political power and all decisions.
Many of roughly 100 tribes will have no trouble to become part of a process of folding the Kingdom into what could be called the Iran-Ansarallah compound. They will take back their oil; Arabia then will no longer be reduced to an American replacement of Persian power; and that will be the end of the free lunch for U.S. oil companies. China cannot but approve this vision.
The petro-sheiks have chosen their tableSana'a did send a clear message to the U.S. via Oman. Yemen would only attack Saudi shipping - and not American or international shipping. That stands as long as Washington does not attack Yemen. Yet if that happens, Yemen obliterates the American base in Djibouti, essential for surveillance of the whole Horn of Africa.
The key question now is whether the U.S. - and the Mecca pact - really dumped Saudi Arabia. Or if this is just a realignment fog before a concerted attack - GCC included - on Ansarallah.
If that happens, Tehran has made it crystal clear it will strike U.S. military and commercial assets all across the Gulf, especially in the UAE and Saudi, and all the way to Iraq.
Major General Mohsen Rezaee, secretary of the Supreme National Security Council in Iran, and Leader Mojtaba Khamenei's personal representative, provided the context with a single sentence:
"We invited them [GCC nations] to the Salalah meeting [in Oman]...and they reciprocated with a secret meeting in Germany with the U.S. Central Command and Israel."
It's all here. Iran invited the GCC petro-sheiks to a common regional table. The GCC instead chose the Washington/Tel Aviv table.
Rezaee has also outlined how Iran upgraded supersonic missiles from Mach 6 to Mach 10; expanded electronic warfare and air defenses; and is now able to hit U.S. vessels anywhere in the - distant - Indian Ocean.
Then there's that ship-targeting missile that splits into 80 projectiles tested - successfully - on a U.S. aircraft carrier. The Pentagon is mum on the subject.
Rezaee, in more ways than one, has gently advised the U.S. Navy to get out of Dodge - as in the Indian Ocean - before sparks fly again.
Cue once again to the young al-Bukhaiti:
"A major escalation by Saudi Arabia is expected in the coming day or days... It will be met with a surprise retaliatory response that will make Saudi Arabia and its allies forget that they lost Mocha and Bab al-Mandab."
So the Epstein Syndicate may have planned for a solo op on Yemen, just to find out that Iran and Yemen come as a package.
Respect Iran's terms. Or else.Tehran conveyed its new terms to the U.S. through Qatar, even as Rezaee continues to define "the respected Pakistani government" as a steady consultation partner.
The terms include the release of frozen assets and the end of the Trump naval blockade. Rezaee said there are 7 conditions, but he disclosed only 6. The list did not include "removal of economic sanctions". The public first item is "an end to the war on all fronts."
That is exactly what was written at the start of the dead cat MoU.
The June memorandum of understanding already contained crude-export waivers and a no-new-sanctions clause.
Then there's the Strait of Hormuz reciprocation. That is part of Tehran's bargaining structure. Rezaee said Iran is "a short step" from announcing a Hormuz management deal with Oman that may need regional endorsement.
A Tasnim-sourced description calls the arrangement "a step towards Iran exercising sovereignty over the Strait". In parallel, Foreign Minister Araghchi told his counterpart and friend Wang Yi in Beijing that Iran "has reached a plan with Oman to open the Strait." Then Ghalibaf repeated on Sunday that the Strait of Hormuz stays closed until Iran's conditions are met.
Washington's answer, on Sunday, was demented rhetoric - as usual. Neo-Crassus/Psycho Toddler told Fox News he is in "deciding mode". And then he came up with an intergallactic howler: he's deciding "if and when do I blow the entire nation up".
No comments necessary.
He has essentially three options.
1. Renewed strikes.
2. Let Iran "rot" economically (that's the plan for now).
3. A deal.
In an access of common sense, he also said he would "probably be open" to meeting President Pezeshkian at the UN General Assembly.
Iran's Armed Forces, for their part, claimed they have intel that Washington has decided "with the green light from certain regional countries" to resume action and threatened "continuous, effective and painful strikes."
When it comes to the Big Picture, Pakistan insisted there is no military response under discussion regarding Yemen. Türkiye "does not want to enter the fray". Still, Pakistan's military spokesman has pledged to go "to any extent", and the Foreign Office confirmed "some deployments" under the Mecca Defense Alliance. Insiders in Islamabad swear this is only for show: Pakistan cannot afford to be dragged into a war against Ansarallah.
The heart of the matter is that the Epstein Syndicate simply cannot afford not (italics mine) to make a move. Consider the dire circumstances: they already connot control currency collapse, food supply chain elimination and widespread lack of oil/diesel. They need massive diversionist tactics.
Meanwhile, Yemen's revolutionary surge accelerates the timetable to the showdown. While Iran concentrates on ensuring a definitive neo-Crassus/Goldfinger/Psycho toddler mid-term debacle, in tandem with honing its new offensive doctrine: as in being ready to preemptively strike at any sign of U.S. rumblings.
It's nearly impossible to draw reason out of an illogical geopolitical universe where nothing matters and the Hegemon is totally out of control. Yet we persist.
We are all riders on the (coming) storm.
Pepe Escobar is an independent geopolitical analyst and author. His latest book is Raging Twenties. He's been politically canceled from Facebook and Twitter. Follow him on Telegram.
We publish a variety of perspectives. Nothing written here is to be construed as representing the views of ZeroHedge.
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NATO Jets Scrambled After Russian Military Helicopter Breaches Polish Airspace
Another dangerous border breach incident has occurred involving Russia's military and a NATO 'eastern flank' country.
Polish military officials announced Wednesday that a Russian military helicopter made a brief incursion into Poland's sovereign airspace from the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad.
AFP/Getty ImagesKaliningrad and Poland share a 130-mile heavily fortified frontier border, and tensions have soared ever since the Ukraine war began.
"The Mi-8 helicopter spent 42 seconds in Polish airspace and entered to a maximum depth of about 300 meters (328 yards)," the Polish Army Operational Command stated in a post on X.
Polish or NATO jets went immediately active as a result. "Fighter aircraft were scrambled, and ground-based forces and assets remained on standby. The nature of the incident indicates that Russia is once again testing the readiness of our air defense," the statement said.
Poland's military framed the incident as intentional and as part of Moscow's willingness to 'test' Western readiness and resolve:
It said "the nature of the incident indicates that Russia is once again testing the readiness of our air defense". Moscow did not comment immediately.
Poland and other European Nato members have recently said Russia may be preparing attacks to test their commitment to supporting Ukraine - Moscow denies this.
The Kremlin did not immediately issue comment, but has previously repeatedly denied that there is any intent whatsoever to expand the Ukraine 'special military operation' into Europe.
However, earlier this month Foreign Minister Lavrov warned that "If Europe attacks Russia, it will be a completely different war [from that in Ukraine], and it will be very short."
The suggestion was that Russia is ready do defend itself with strategic forces if it has to, in a veiled warning of nuclear confrontation.
Several 'incursion' incidents have already happened this month along the borders of Eastern European NATO member states. Most of these incidents have centered on drones.
BritannicaPolish Prime Minister Donald Tusk suggested Russia was planning drone and missile strikes against Poland and other countries on NATO's eastern flank. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said just days ago, "In recent weeks, the Russian hybrid threat against Europeans... has intensified."
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"The Danes Lied The Most": What's Really In The Text Of Trump's Landmark Deal With Greenland
Authored by John Weeks via AntiWar.com
US To Establish Two New Military Bases In GreenlandThe United States plans to open two new military bases in Greenland, an expansion made possible by a new security agreement between the US, Denmark, and the semi-autonomous Danish territory of Greenland.
On Tuesday, President Donald Trump, Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen, and Greenland Prime Minister Jens-Frederik Nielsen signed the new security agreement during a trilateral ceremony at the United Nations General Assembly in New York.
US Army imageThe "agreement," which amends a 1951 defense treaty, allows the US "to establish an additional Defense Area at Narsarsuaq and Mestersvig in accordance with modalities and technical details to be mutually agreed by the Parties," which is where the two new military bases will be created.
Narsarsuaq hosted the US Bluie West One military base in the 1940s and 1950s. Mestersvig is a current military outpost used by the Danish special forces unit called Sirius Dog Sled Patrol.
The agreement also allows the US to "modernize and expand its activities" at its existing Pituffik Space Base in northwestern Greenland, create additional military facilities on the island, and enjoy greater military access by land, air, and sea.
It also bans non-NATO nations from establishing a military presence on Greenland and provides the U.S. with economic privileges (such as “minerals cooperation”) in the resource-rich island.
During a speech to assembled world leaders at the UN before the trilateral ceremony, Trump spoke of the "unprecedented agreement regarding the northern frontier of North America, the large and strategically vital piece of land known as Greenland."
This rhetoric tracked with Secretary of War Pete Hegseth’s vow in March to establish a "Greater North America." However, the agreement does not have the US take over Greenland, as leaders on the island, in Denmark, and throughout Europe had feared earlier this year.
Such fears were well placed, considering that the US conquered Venezuela in January, has been working toward regime change in Cuba, and is currently at war with Iran.
What's in the actual Greenland deal text? Analysis in the following: "The Danes lied the most: Trump is pretty much correct in saying that this new deal grants the US control of Greenland"...
Ok, we now have the actual text of the Greenland deal (https://t.co/HwqZT6CGb2), so we can say how it compares to the existing 1951 arrangement and who, between Trump and Denmark, lied the most in their framing of it.
Long story short - which may surprise some - the Danes lied… https://t.co/DPM2iFkN4v
Geopolitical commentator Arnaud Bertrand's breakdown of the official text and the implications:
1) This is now a permanent arrangement: whereas the existing 1951 deal only lasted as long as NATO existed, this one "does not have an end date and may only be amended by mutual consent." It even survives a hypothetical future independence of Greenland: in that event, Denmark and Greenland must ensure that the independent Greenlandic state "affirmatively assume[s] all of the rights and obligations of the Kingdom of Denmark specified in this Agreement."
2) In the 1951 agreement, the US could set up bases only where both governments agreed, and only on the basis of NATO planning. The new deal locks in three bases: the US can "modernize and expand its activities" at Pituffik, its only base in Greenland until now, and "shall be allowed to establish an additional Defense Area at Narsarsuaq and Mestersvig." Further bases beyond these 3 can be justified by the defense of "the American continent," a US interest rather than a NATO one. Also, quite subtle but this is interesting: Article IV(iii) says that "the United States may establish additional defense areas in Greenland" and that consultations are then held "to decide implementation details based on mutual agreement." What this means is that the principle of a new base is automatically granted and only the implementation details require agreement. Article VII also gives the US "the right to raise concerns regarding construction, or change of use" of any building near a US base, after which the parties decide together what to do. Which means that the US has a say over civilian planning around its bases.
3) On US military movement across Greenland, the wording change between the 1951 agreement and this new one is quite funny. The 1951 text said (Art. V(3)): the US "may enjoy... the right of free access to and movement between the defense areas through Greenland, including territorial waters, by land, air and sea," but only "in accordance with general rules mutually agreed upon and issued by the appropriate Danish authority in Greenland." The new one says: "the United States of America shall enjoy... the right of free access to and movement between the Defense Areas through Greenland, including the Territorial Waters, by land, air and sea." That's it: "May" becomes "shall," and the US military movement no longer has to follow rules "issued by the appropriate Danish authority in Greenland." The US also gets something new on top: "undersea access to and movement within the Territorial Waters," i.e. submarines.
4) Non-NATO exclusion: non-NATO states are barred from military installations or a persistent presence in Greenland unless all three parties approve, giving the US an effective permanent veto. The 1951 deal had no equivalent clause.
5) Investment screening: this is entirely new. "States or investors from a state that is not a member of NATO, a NATO partner, or an EU member state" (i.e. Russia, China, India, the Gulf States, etc.), "shall not be allowed to have (i) control, (ii) significant influence, or (iii) access to non-public information...within Particularly Sensitive Sectors or Activities in the territory of Greenland (including the Territorial Waters), unless agreed between the Parties." Again, it basically means that the US has a permanent veto over who can invest in strategic sectors in Greenland, as far as non-NATO or EU states are concerned.
6) Lastly, in stark contrast with the 1951 deal, the framing of the deal changes significantly: this new deal is largely framed around the US. The 1951 agreement existed only "for the benefit of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization." The new one lists the defense of "the American continent" as an objective, celebrates "the irreplaceable role" of the United States military as well as "the United States' indispensable historical and ongoing contributions to the security and defense of Greenland," and names the establishment of Trump's "Golden Dome" missile defense system as a key goal.
During his UN speech, Trump unleashed an extremely aggressive statement aimed at Tehran: "Will a deal be made with Iran that lets them rebuild and create a far greater country than it ever was before, maybe one of the greatest in the Middle East, or even the world? Or do I annihilate the Islamic Republic, and do it quickly, never giving them a chance to kill and destroy people and countries again? Do I drive them into hell with no chance of survival and no hope of future greatness or generations?"
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In Red Sea Crisis, Somaliland Seizes Leverage For US Recognition
Authored by Dan M. Ford via Responsible Statecraft,
The president of Somaliland took advantage of the geopolitical and global economic turmoil caused by the Iran War to visit Washington this week in an effort to advocate for American recognition of Somaliland and for the deepening of economic ties between the two.
President Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi, known as Irro, made a public appearance at the Hudson Institute on September 14, where he argued that his country's three-and-a-half decade run as a secure, self-governing actor warranted recognition from the United States. Irro also said that, although he's "not a geologist," experts tell him his country has "everything" the U.S. could want in terms of critical minerals, which he'd be happy to provide the U.S. in exchange for deeper relations.
A self-proclaimed sovereign country widely considered to be part of Somalia by the international community, Somaliland has for decades struggled to gain recognition on the international stage. But Israel's unexpected decision in December 2025 to be the first government in the world to recognize Somaliland as an independent state has raised questions about which other countries might follow suit. Somaliland denies that recognition came as part of a quid-pro-quo arrangement, but, shortly after the recognition, it was reported that Somaliland will be forming a security partnership with Israel, potentially including offering the Israelis military access to its territory.
If there was ever a moment for Somaliland officials to make the case for recognition, now is indeed the time. Somaliland sits in one of the world's most geostrategically significant locations. With roughly 530 miles of coastline along the Gulf of Aden - which connects to the Red Sea through the vitally important Bab el-Mandeb Strait - Somaliland is at the heart of a crucial shipping route and on the edge of the expansive battlefield of the Iran War.
Somaliland's major port city of Berbera is located just across the Gulf from the Yemeni coast, putting Somaliland's major economic engine within striking distance of potential Houthi attacks.
The Houthi rebels - an Iran-aligned militant group fighting the Yemeni government and its Saudi backers in Yemen's devastating civil war - have played a major role in expanding the footprint of the ongoing Iran War. The Houthis have repeatedly targeted ships traversing the Red Sea as well as energy and logistics infrastructure in Saudi Arabia.
Their stunning gains along Yemen's southwest coast in recent weeks - including the capture of the major port city of Mocha, near Bab el-Mandeb - mean the Houthis are increasingly in control of the Yemeni coastline along the strait, which gives the group added leverage. Indeed, if a lasting peace deal remains elusive, Iran could aim to use the Houthis' position to effectively shut down shipping through Bab el-Mandeb, which is only about 18 miles wide at its narrowest point.
This would essentially mirror the Iranian strategy on the Strait of Hormuz, which sits on the other side of the Arabian Peninsula. By shutting down shipping through both Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb, the Iranians and their allies would essentially bring to a halt nearly all sea trade connecting the Middle East to the Indian Ocean, worsening the ongoing global supply shock, especially as it relates to energy. The greater the pain on the world's pocketbook, the greater the likelihood, the Iranians believe, that pressure will mount to a point where the United States and Israel have no choice but to negotiate an honest end to the war.
Irro's argument for recognition is straightforward. Somaliland has been operating as a functional and relatively secure country since claiming independence from Somalia in 1991. It has its own military and police force, and has a coast guard that patrols its waters along the Gulf of Aden, defending against potential threats from pirates and other nefarious actors on the seas. In an appeal to traditional Western appreciation for democracy, Irro argues that Somaliland's ability to hold consistent (though often delayed) elections is another indicator of its ability to govern well.
But the Hudson Institute appearance was unsteady. Irro, aged 70, giggled seemingly uncontrollably throughout, and struggled to articulate a vision for the broader region. At one point, he compared neighboring Sudan to Venezuela, saying - like the Latin American country - Sudan is "too far away" from Somaliland for him to provide an opinion on its civil war, despite the fact that the two are only about 460 miles apart.
Cameron Hudson, a former U.S. intelligence official specializing in Africa, said on X that Irro "did himself and his country a major disservice by being unprepared or incapable of being able to respond convincingly to serious topics that will determine his country's future. It was like watching an African Biden."
Last Tuesday, Irro held a breakfast with a bipartisan group of members of Congress from both chambers as well as a group of ambassadors. The president also met individually with several members of Congress, including Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Tex.), Rep. John Rose (R-Tenn.) and Rep. John Moolenaar (R-Mich.), with whom he reportedly discussed a wide variety of issues pertaining to security, trade, and investment.
In addition to meeting with American officials, Irro met with members of the Israeli embassy in Washington, including the country's ambassador.
Ever since Trump took office, Somaliland has seen an opportunity to push for American recognition. Last year, the breakaway state offered the United States the opportunity to open up a military base along its Gulf coast in exchange for recognition, which the Trump administration reportedly seriously considered. Ultimately, though, concern over how such recognition would complicate U.S. relations with nearby governments in the region ultimately dissuaded the American president from agreeing to the arrangement. Such recognition would also hurt American relations with Somalia, which remains a major counterterrorism partner in the fight against the al-Qaeda affiliate al-Shabaab.
Nevertheless, American military presence in the region appears to be growing. Recent reporting suggests the U.S. has sent military personnel to Somaliland's eastern neighbor Puntland, another region claiming independence from Somalia.
Despite a fraying federal system and deep insecurity, Somalia is still a member of both the African Union and Arab League, allowing it to maintain close ties with its regional neighbors. U.S. recognition of Somaliland would risk hurting American relations with this broad base of countries across the Middle East and Africa.
In terms of what Somaliland is willing to provide the U.S. for recognition (or at least for enhanced relations), Irro told Semafor he would consider offering greater military access - including potentially building a military base (as he has offered before) - as well as access to the country's deep resources. In an appeal directed right at Trump, Irro also suggested the possibility of naming the airport in the major port city of Berbera, which has one of the longest runways on the continent, after the American president.
Still, it'll be a challenge for Somaliland's leadership to persuade the United States to recognize it while Somalia remains an American partner in counterterrorism activity, and while the wider regional community opposes Somaliland's independence. But if either of these factors change, and if the Gulf region remains a hotbed for conflict, global geopolitical and military positioning will, at the very least, keep the conversation going.
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China Floods Europe With Cheap Cars, Grabs Record Market Share As Domestic Brands Buckle
Europe is becoming a glaring case study in how globalist leaders can destroy an entire automotive manufacturing base by flooding the continent with cheap Chinese cars and sending domestic automakers spiraling into crisis, while their policies simultaneously spark what Nomura analysts have said will be political blowback over an 18-month election cycle, with shifts toward the right already visible in recent German elections.
Bloomberg News cites new data from Dataforce showing that Chinese automakers captured a record share of Europe's car market in August by flooding the continent with cheap hybrids that undercut domestic brands.
Chinese brands, including BYD, accounted for nearly 12% of European new-car sales that month, according to Dataforce. The largest surge in sales came from hybrids: one in four sales overall and roughly one in three plug-in hybrids.
Chinese hybrids avoid the additional EU duties imposed on imported EVs, giving BYD a competitive advantage on an energy-stricken continent.
EV and hybrid sales jumped 27% in August, offsetting declines in combustion-only cars and lifting the overall market by 4.6%.
The increasing Chinese auto footprint inside Europe is becoming increasingly alarming when viewed from a Goldman chart posted to clients earlier today.
Germany's auto industry crisis has refused to end as Volkswagen last week lowered its operating-margin forecast, reflecting a write-down on its Porsche stake and soft Chinese demand. Layoffs and production-line wind-downs are also mounting for European automakers.
Stellantis recently planned to halt production of the electric and hybrid Fiat 500 at Italy's Mirafiori plant during the final two weeks of October. Output could reach 60,000 vehicles this year, compared with an original forecast of around 100,000.
Meanwhile, Germany is preparing economic security proposals that could include tariffs on Chinese hybrids as its auto industrial base remains in turmoil.
The problem with Europe's auto industrial base, amid what can only be viewed as a planned demolition by the continent's globalist leaders, is its lack of readiness to retool for wartime, as the US is currently doing (see the GM report from last week), when civilian production quickly converts to weapons manufacturing.
Europe is a case study for the world in what not to do, as its globalist leaders appear to be at the mercy of Beijing.
Tyler Durden Thu, 09/24/2026 - 02:45