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5 Charts To Navigate This Chaotic Market
Authored by Adam Sharp via DailyReckoning.com,
I have 5 charts for you today which put this crazy market into context and give some clarity on what might come next.
We’re at a fascinating crossroads for markets, geopolitics, and finance.
Let’s get started.
Semis Party Like It’s 1999First up, semiconductor returns. The index below includes U.S. semi stocks like Nvidia, Micron, Intel, Broadcom, Marvell, Texas Instruments, and more:
Source: Charlie Bilello
As you can see, during the dotcom bubble, semiconductor stocks soared 234% over 14 months in the period leading up to February 2000. That was the peak of the market, and tech stocks wouldn’t recover for about 15 years.
And in the past 14 months, SOX is up 237%. Reminiscent of the dotcom days.
Maybe this time is different, and yes, the stocks are more profitable today. But it’s undeniable that markets are getting bubbly. Semis are looking especially frothy. When AI spending inevitably slows down, watch out below…
+$2.99 TrillionOver the past year, America’s federal debt jumped by $2.99 trillion.
Needless to say, our current trajectory is unsustainable. We’re paying about $1.2 trillion per year just in interest on federal government debt.
This is the key reason I believe interest rates will need to go down to near zero sometime in the next few years. Even if inflation remains above target. And it’s why I still believe holding precious metal investments is key to wealth preservation and growth.
AI Infrastructure Surpasses HumansWe all know data centers are booming. But the chart below puts it all into perspective. It compares office construction (blue) to data centers (red):
Source: Zerohedge
Simply remarkable. We’re spending more on infrastructure for AI than humans.
And since 2016, spending on data centers is up more than 10x.
But all around the country, locals are pushing back against big tech. Data centers are extremely loud. They spike local electricity prices to unaffordable levels. In some cases, they pollute the water with nitrites and other chemicals.
And most importantly, our power grid is hitting its limits. We can’t build new power plants fast enough to keep up. So eventually, the data center boom will have to slow down significantly. And that will likely mark the top of this boom/bubble.
Silver vs StocksSilver has had a rough few months. After rising almost 4x in a year, it has been cut in half.
The chart below compares silver to the S&P 500. As this chart rises, silver is beating stocks. When it falls, it is losing.
Source: Tavi Costa
As you can see, even at the recent highs we didn’t get anywhere near the levels we saw in 2011, when silver outperformed stocks for an extended period.
We’ve gotten our big correction, and I believe the next 5 years will be excellent for silver. It still has a long way to go to reach 2011 levels (compared to stocks). And supply deficits today are far more extreme than they ever were back then. Solar is booming and investment demand is soaring, especially in Asia.
I remain convinced silver will find new highs over the next few years. Maybe sooner.
-$246B Gambling LossesThe USA’s gambling problem is getting worse. As a whole, Americans are on track to lose $246 billion this year.
Source: Joey Politano
As we highlighted last week, Americans invest about $600 billion in 401ks every year. That number could be $850 billion if we ever learn that gambling has horrible odds.
Look, if you can afford to gamble and enjoy it, great. But many people are trying to strike it rich. And that almost never happens.
Gambling is all around us, and we should be on guard against its pernicious effects. Saving and investing should always come first.
Tyler Durden Sat, 07/11/2026 - 15:10Own your precious files and documents forever with this $350 20TB cloud storage solution
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China Lands Reusable Rocket On Barge, But SpaceX Remains Years Ahead
China successfully landed the first-stage booster of a Long March 10B rocket on a floating barge during an orbital launch test earlier Friday, marking the first major step in reusable launch technology, albeit roughly a decade behind Elon Musk's SpaceX.
"This mission … signifies a historic breakthrough in China's reusable rocket technology and a solid foundation for accelerating the improvement of China's space access capabilities," the China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation wrote in a social media post.
China has achieved its first-ever controlled recovery of a rocket booster, a breakthrough for the country's reusable space tech. On the maiden flight of Long March-10B, the rocket successfully placed its payload into orbit, and its first stage returned and was captured by a net… pic.twitter.com/YZRcgbneTg
— China Xinhua Sci-Tech (@XHscitech) July 10, 2026Reusable rockets are key to SpaceX's dominance of the global launch market, with Musk's company having mastered booster recovery and reuse a decade ago:
- December 21, 2015: First successful landing of an orbital-class Falcon 9 booster.
- April 8, 2016: First successful landing on an ocean drone ship.
- March 30, 2017: First relaunch of a previously flown Falcon 9 booster, marking the start of operational reuse.
Ten Years Ago: SpaceX Falcon 9 First Stage Landing
Blue Origin, SpaceX's closest U.S. rival, completed the first successful landing of a New Glenn first-stage booster last November.
— Jeff Bezos (@JeffBezos) April 19, 2026BryceTech's latest launch report for Q1 2026 shows how SpaceX's reusable-rocket technology has transformed Musk's space and AI company into a market leader.
SpaceX launched 40 rockets during the quarter, compared with 12 for China, five for Rocket Lab, and four for Russia, reinforcing the widening gap between SpaceX and the rest of the global launch industry.
More evidence of SpaceX's dominance:
And again:
SpaceX is a major reason America's space program continues to lead the world today and should maintain that lead through 2030.
Investors are waiting for the commercialization of Starship...
84% chance Starship is fully reusable before 2028. https://t.co/PZiahSxMgo
— Polymarket (@Polymarket) July 7, 2026With SpaceX maintaining roughly a decade-long technological lead over nation-state-backed programs such as China's, it is little surprise that Wall Street analysts are piling in with bullish ratings on SPCX. Raymond James is the most aggressive, setting a Street-high 12-month price target of $800. Read the report here.
Tyler Durden Sat, 07/11/2026 - 14:35