The nationwide average price of regular gasoline marginally increased on Thursday, after five straight days of decline, the American Automobile Association (AAA) said in a May 14 statement.
The national average price is “at the same range as it was in 2022, the year gas prices hit record highs. Travelers are preparing to hit the road in record numbers next week, and drivers will be facing the highest Memorial Day gas prices in four years,” AAA said.
On Friday, prices declined less than a cent to $4.52 per gallon from Thursday’s $4.53. In six states, average gas prices exceeded $5: Illinois, Nevada, Alaska, Oregon, Hawaii, and Washington. Prices exceeded $6 in California. Texas had the lowest price at $3.99 per gallon.
While Thursday’s average gas price was lower than last week’s, prices at the pump continue to remain elevated as crude oil hovers around the $100 per barrel price level.
With prices near record highs as Memorial Day looms, Naveen Athrappully reports for The Epoch Times that the federal government has taken various measures to ease the pressure on gas prices.
On May 11, the Department of Energy (DOE) announced that it would loan 53 million barrels of oil from America’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve to petroleum companies.
“Deliveries will begin immediately as the Department continues to move swiftly to address short-term supply disruptions and strengthen U.S. energy security,” the DOE said.
Earlier, the U.S. government had removed sanctions on Iranian and Russian crude oil stranded at sea to ease the global oil supply shortage.
In late March, the Environmental Protection Agency issued a temporary fuel waiver allowing gasoline with higher ethanol blends to be sold nationwide beginning May 1 to curb rising prices. The waiver will remain in effect until May 20.
Since the U.S.–Iran war began in late February, Tehran has repeatedly attacked and threatened commercial ships in the critical Strait of Hormuz, a waterway located south of Iran through which over a fifth of global seaborne oil trade is transported. This has disrupted shipments through the strait, pushing oil prices higher.
On Feb. 27, a day before the conflict began, Brent crude oil futures closed the day at around $72 per barrel. On May 15, oil was trading at around $108 as at 9:10 a.m. ET.
Washington and Tehran have yet to negotiate an end to the war, which has kept markets tense and oil prices elevated.
Tight Oil MarketSince the start of the war, crude oil output from OPEC has fallen by more than 30 percent, the group said in a May 13 report.
Current OPEC output is at 18.89 million barrels per day, down from 28.65 million barrels before the conflict broke out. The organization cut its outlook for the year, predicting global crude oil demand would grow by less than 1.2 million barrels per day, down from its previous forecast of 1.4 million barrels per day.
However, “global economic growth continues to show resilience for this year despite geopolitical tensions,” the report said.
In a May 14 post, ING Bank said that the oil market is “eagerly awaiting” the outcome of the meeting between President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping. Trump’s summit in China ended on May 15.
“The market could be pinning too much hope on the US–China talks yielding some positive results on Iran,” ING said.
“Some hope that China could exert pressure on Iran to reach a deal with the US, to end the war and lead to a resumption of energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz.”
Morgan Stanley said in a May 12 report that the risk of prolonged oil supply disruption, especially around the Strait of Hormuz, has now increased.
Prior to the conflict, around 32 ships used to traverse the strait daily between January and March, a number that crashed to roughly two during March–April. There is now a 12 million-barrel-per-day shortage in global oil production.
“While a 12 million barrel-per-day difference may not appear large in a global context, it represents the largest supply shock since the 1970s OPEC oil embargo,” Morgan Stanley said.
“Further, its persistence amplifies the risk of broader economic impacts. Moreover, the timing of this disruption further compounds the issue, with the gasoline-heavy summer driving season (May through August) quickly approaching.”
Tyler Durden Sun, 05/17/2026 - 09:55Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,
📈Technical Backdrop – Friday Selloff Tests The TapeThe S&P 500 closed Friday at 7,408.50, surrendering Thursday’s historic first close above 7,500 with a 1.24% decline. The semiconductor names that powered the rally became the source of Friday’s selling. Intel fell 5%, Micron 4%, AMD 3%, and Nvidia 4.4%. From a purely technical standpoint, Friday’s reversal was the first real distribution day in three weeks and the mean-reversion signal we have been flagging.
The deviation numbers are the story. At 7.0% above the 50-DMA (6,921) and 9.3% above the 200-DMA (6,780), the index is stretched to a degree that has preceded every meaningful pullback over the past two years. The RSI, however, tells a more nuanced story: at 67.15, it has already pulled back below the 70 overbought threshold. Friday’s selloff did real work in resetting the oscillator. The MACD, while still positive at +1.54, has narrowed significantly from the 40+ readings earlier in the week, with the signal line (148.10) now nearly converging with the MACD line. A bearish crossover is likely on Monday, even if the market stabilizes.
The erratic style rotation we discussed in this week’s Daily Market Commentary, value leading Monday, growth getting slapped Tuesday, then flipping again on Wednesday, intensified into Friday’s close. Single-stock implied volatility is running 2.5x the index VIX, meaning the calm headline masks violent sector-level moves. The gamma feedback loop driving the semiconductor surge works in reverse on the way down: when call flow dries up, market makers sell the underlying to flatten their books. Friday’s action in MU, AMD, INTC, and NVDA is the process beginning.
The bull case: the primary trend is up, the RSI has already pulled back below 70 without breaking any support, and the 20-DMA at 7,260 should attract dip buyers on an initial pullback.
The bear case: the 7% and 9.3% deviations above the 50- and 200-DMAs are extreme, the MACD is on the verge of a bearish crossover, and the gamma unwind in semiconductors has only just begun.
The base case is a pullback toward the 20-DMA (7,260), not a breakdown. A deeper correction to the 50/100-DMA cluster near 6,913–6,921 would represent a 6.6% decline from Friday’s close, painful but technically healthy. Use the 20-DMA as the near-term line: a close below opens 6,921 quickly. Trail stops, take profits in extended names, and use any test of the moving average cluster as an opportunity to add.
💰 Market Leadership Is NarrowTech is carrying the tape. Most other sectors aren’t. Here’s what history says about that setup, and how we’re positioning around it.
Look under the hood of this year’s rally and the tape isn’t nearly as healthy as the headline number suggests. The S&P 500 sits up roughly 8.4% year-to-date through Friday’s close, but the strength is being carried by a small group of sectors doing all the heavy lifting. Technology is up north of 23%. Healthcare is down almost 8%. Financials have given back more than 6%. Equal-weight, which gives every name an identical vote, has only managed about 6.5%. That gap is the story of 2026 so far, and the story has a name. Narrow market leadership. We’ve seen this movie before, and the ending is rarely as clean as the bulls would like to believe.
Chart of Equal Vs Market Cap Weight
The clearest sign of narrowing market leadership is the spread between the cap-weighted S&P 500 and the equal-weight version. The cap-weighted index, where Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, and a small group of mega caps carry outsized weight, has outpaced equal-weight by roughly 200 basis points in just over four months. That sounds modest until you remember both indices hold the same 500 companies. The entire performance gap is a weight effect. A handful of names are doing the work for the whole index.
Drill into the table, and the picture sharpens. Technology and Energy are doing the bulk of the index’s heavy lifting, but the way they’re doing it matters. Energy carries just over 4% of the S&P 500 by weight. That’s one of the smallest slots in the index. The sector is the year’s best performer at nearly 28%, but at a 4% weight, even a stellar return only adds about a percentage point to the index. Technology is the opposite story. Tech accounts for roughly a third of the index by weight, and at +23.5% YTD, it alone accounts for the better part of three-quarters of the year’s gain. Strip Tech out, and what’s left of 2026 looks closer to a market in retreat than a market grinding toward new highs.
The bigger problem lies with the heavyweights who aren’t pulling. Financials, the second-largest sector at almost 13% of the index, are down 6.5% year to date. Healthcare, the fifth-largest at 9.5%, has dropped almost 8%. Communication Services at roughly 10% is slightly negative. Consumer Discretionary at nearly 10% is flat. Those four sectors together represent more than 40% of the S&P 500 by weight, and, as a group, they’re a drag rather than a contributor. The bull market isn’t getting help from the heavyweights that should normally be participating, and the dispersion chart above is the visible result.
Here’s why that matters. Sustainable bull markets pass the baton. When Tech gets tired, Financials or Industrials step up. When growth stumbles, value takes over. Right now, the second, third, fourth, and fifth largest sectors of the index aren’t passing the baton. They’re sitting it out. Without those sectors starting to lead, or at minimum starting to participate, this bull market becomes much harder to sustain. The index can ride one sector for a stretch. It can’t ride one sector forever, and that’s exactly what narrow market leadership looks like before it cracks. This isn’t a broad bull market. It’s a Tech-led tape with a thinning bench underneath.
Historical Precedents For Narrow Market LeadershipHistory gives us several clean playbooks for what happens when market leadership concentrates this aggressively into one or two sectors. The first is the Nifty Fifty of the early 1970s. Roughly fifty large-cap growth names carried the index higher into 1972 while the average stock had already started rolling over. When the bear market hit in 1973-74, the Nifty Fifty names lost 45% or more, and the broader index drew down nearly half its value, as participation had been weakening for months beforehand.
The second is the late-1990s dot-com era. By 1999, technology was running away from every other sector. Breadth deteriorated sharply through the back half of that year. The advance-decline line peaked well before the S&P did. When the unwind came in 2000, the Nasdaq lost 78% of its value over the following two and a half years. Importantly, defensive sectors actually outperformed through the worst of it. The third, and the one most relevant for current conditions, is 2021. Mega-cap technology drove the indices to fresh highs while small caps and cyclicals quietly topped out months earlier. The Russell 2000 peaked in November 2021. The S&P 500 didn’t peak until January 2022. The market then spent most of 2022 catching down to what breadth had already been telling investors.
In every one of those cases, narrow market leadership wasn’t the cause of the downturn. However, it was a reliable warning that the underlying participation was thinning out before price followed.
“Investors who own the cap-weighted index right now think they’re diversified across 500 names. In practice, they own a concentrated bet on roughly ten companies with 500 tickers attached.”
What Narrow Market Leadership Tells Us About RiskMake no mistake, narrow market leadership isn’t an automatic sell signal. Markets can run further than seems reasonable when momentum and passive flows pile into the same names. The 2024-2025 mega-cap run is a recent reminder. But narrow market leadership changes the index’s risk profile in a way most investors don’t appreciate.
Here’s the problem. The same passive flows that drive mega caps higher on the way up reverse on the way down. When the largest weights sell off, they drag the index down, and the already-thin breadth gets even thinner. Drawdowns under narrow market leadership tend to be deeper and faster than drawdowns from broad-based rallies, because there’s no rotation to absorb the selling. Volatility behaves differently, too. When leadership is wide, sector rotation cushions the index. When it isn’t, the index moves with whatever the top five names are doing. Risk goes up. Most investors don’t see it.
The fingerprints of that risk are clear when you look at how far the leading themes have moved from their long-term means. Reversion is mathematical, not optional. Eventually, prices come back to their averages, and when the deviation gets this stretched, the round trip is rarely small. The table below lists the most extended subsectors of the current market leadership rally, the 200-week moving average for each, and the percentage decline required to reset to that average.
Read the right-hand column. These aren’t 10% pullback numbers. Semiconductors and Quantum themes would need declines in the 50% to 60% range just to touch their 4-year means. The broad Technology sector, the heaviest weighting in the S&P 500, would have to give back roughly 40% to do the same. The Momentum factor itself sits 57% above its long-term mean, indicating the entire momentum trade is concentrated in the same overextended names. Energy, despite leading the year, looks comparatively reasonable at 29% above the mean. Mean reversion isn’t a forecast. It’s an arithmetic statement about how much price has been pulled forward into the current market leadership names. The deeper the deviation, the bigger the eventual round trip.
How To Position Around Narrow Market LeadershipWhat does this mean for portfolios? Pull the threads together. Tech alone accounts for roughly three-quarters of the index’s gain this year. The four heavyweight sectors below, which together account for more than 40% of the S&P 500, aren’t participating. The historical record for narrow market leadership runs to drawdowns of 35% to 78% in the leading sector. And the most extended themes inside this rally sit 50% to 145% above their long-term means. That’s the setup. The setup dictates the response.
This isn’t about predicting the top. It’s about making sure portfolios reflect what’s already been pulled forward. The actions below are what we’re doing in client books right now.
None of this requires calling the top. We aren’t bearish on the bull market. We are bearish on the assumption that this market leadership will remain durable for another 12 to 18 months without a meaningful reset. The arithmetic of mean reversion and the historical record of narrow tapes both point to the same conclusion.
Position accordingly.
🔑 Key Catalysts Next WeekThis is the most important week of Q2 and possibly the year. Nvidia reports Wednesday after the close; the FOMC Minutes land Wednesday afternoon; Walmart opens Thursday morning; and Jerome Powell’s fourteen-year tenure at the Federal Reserve ends Saturday. Each of these events alone would dominate a normal week. Together, they arrive at a moment when the 10-year Treasury yield has surged to 4.55%, the highest in a year, and rate hike probabilities have climbed from 1% a month ago to 45% today. The regime is shifting in real time.
However, Wednesday is a collision day that will define the markets next week. The FOMC Minutes from the April 28–29 meeting drop at 2:00 PM, and they arrive carrying a question the market has never had to ask in this cycle: did anyone on the committee discuss raising rates? With core CPI reaccelerating, oil elevated by the Iran conflict, and the 10-year yield climbing, the minutes will reveal whether the internal conversation has shifted from “when do we cut” to “do we need to hike.” Any hawkish surprise, even a single paragraph acknowledging that hikes were discussed, would detonate the rate-sensitive trade.
Three hours later, Nvidia reports Q1 FY2027. Consensus expects $78.8 billion in revenue, 78% year-over-year growth, and $1.77 in EPS, both above the company’s own $78 billion guidance. But the Q1 number is almost beside the point. The real trade is the Q2 guide versus the $86 billion consensus, Blackwell ramp and GB300 Ultra timing, and any commentary on China H200 reopening after the export restrictions effectively zeroed out Chinese data center revenue. The stock has fallen on four of its last five earnings beats, and options are pricing a 5–10% move, in either direction.
Thursday is the consumer verdict. Walmart before the open is the definitive Main Street read. Estimated revenue is $172 billion, grocery share gains, e-commerce penetration, and critically, how much tariff and inflation costs are being passed through at the shelf level versus absorbed in margin will be key. This is where we learn whether the consumer held up through $100 oil and 4.55% Treasury yields or started to crack. Walmart’s full-year guidance will set the consumer narrative for Q2.
Bottom line: Nvidia tells us whether the AI capex cycle is still accelerating. The FOMC Minutes tell us whether the Fed is considering tightening. Walmart tells us whether consumers are surviving. And Saturday, a new Fed Chair takes over with a fundamentally different worldview. This is the week the narrative for the rest of 2026 gets written. Hedge your book before Wednesday at 2:00 PM.
Trade accordingly.
Tyler Durden Sun, 05/17/2026 - 09:20Abu Dhabi authorities report that a kamikaze drone struck an electrical generator outside the inner perimeter of the Barakah Nuclear Power Plant in Al Dhafra. Officials said there were no injuries, no impact on radiological safety levels, and no disruption to plant operations.
Dubai-based newspaper Gulf News cited the Federal Authority for Nuclear Regulation, which said the one-way drone attack on the Arab world's first commercial nuclear facility did not affect the safety of the nuclear power plant or the readiness of its essential systems. FANR added that all systems were operating normally as of late Sunday.
Barakah operates four APR-1400 reactors with a combined capacity of 5.6 gigawatts, generating about 40 terawatt-hours annually, or about 25% of the UAE's electricity. Any successful attack on Barakah would cripple the UAE's power grid.
The incident comes as the broader U.S.-Iran truce remains fragile, with President Trump recently describing the ceasefire as being on "life support."
Trump told reporters on Friday that Iran's latest proposal was "unacceptable" and blamed the Iranians for backtracking on the nuclear issue.
In response to Iranian demands, the Trump administration has set five conditions of its own for Tehran, according to Iran's Fars News Agency.
Those conditions include:
No U.S. compensation for damages
Transfer of 400 kg of uranium from Iran to the United States
Limiting Iran's nuclear activities to only one operating facility
No release of even 25% of frozen Iranian assets
Linking any ceasefire across all fronts to the continuation of negotiations
Here are the latest headlines from the Gulf region (courtesy of Bloomberg):
Peace Talks
The US has set five main conditions for a prospective peace agreement with Iran, including no compensation payments, removal of 400 kilograms of uranium, limiting nuclear infrastructure to a single facility, releasing less than 25% of frozen assets, and suspension of certain activities. [BFW]
Iran's foreign minister said a lack of trust is the biggest obstacle in negotiations to end the war with the US, citing contradictory messages that have made Tehran reluctant about American intentions. [APW]
Iran would be open to diplomatic help, particularly from China, to help ease tensions. [APW]
Hormuz Chokepoint
Iran said transit through the Strait of Hormuz will flow once the conflict with the US and Israel is over, but the sides are no closer to resolving their differences. [BN]
Commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains largely frozen, with only limited vessel movements observed and most tied to Iranian-linked shipping. [BN]
A Vietnam-bound supertanker carrying 2 million barrels of Iraqi crude, which was halted by US forces after crossing the Strait of Hormuz, has resumed its journey after getting clearance. [BN]
Gulf Attacks
A drone strike caused a fire at an electrical generator outside Abu Dhabi's Barakah nuclear power plant on Sunday, with no injuries reported and no impact on radiological safety. [BFW] [APW]
The United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia carried out multiple strikes against Iran after their countries were attacked by the regime in the early days of the war. [WSJ]
Iran seized a support vessel owned by a Chinese security firm near the Strait of Hormuz, appearing to signal it is unwilling to permit armed protection even for ships sailing on behalf of its strongest global backer. [WSJ]
Economic Impact
Iraq is currently pumping just 1.4 million barrels a day due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the knock-on impact on production facilities.
Israel's economy contracted 3.3% in the first quarter in annualized terms, deeper than the expected 2% drop, due to security-related shutdowns from the war with Iran.
The Philippines' gross gaming revenue fell 16% in the first quarter due to economic headwinds from the Iran war impact. [BFW]
Diplomatic Signals
Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf has been named Iran's special envoy for China affairs. [BFW]
President Trump returned from a two-day summit with China's Xi Jinping, where both agreed the strait should be open but made no apparent progress toward that goal. [BN]
Energy Market
Brent Crude
Professional subscribers can read the latest Hormuz reports from Wall Street at our new Marketdesk.ai portal.
Tyler Durden Sun, 05/17/2026 - 08:59Most Americans can’t afford a new home.
A new analysis from the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) shows that 65% of U.S. households are priced out of newly built homes, based on current prices and mortgage rates.
In some parts of the country, the situation is even more extreme. More than 80% of households can’t afford a new home, highlighting how widespread the affordability gap has become.
This map, via Visual Capitalist's Dorosthy Neufeld, shows where Americans are being priced out and where barriers to homeownership are highest.
Ranked: Where Americans Are Most Priced Out of New HomesAt the extreme end, buying a new home is nearly out of reach. In New Hampshire, 83.4% of households are priced out of a new median-priced home.
In total, 11 states have at least 80% of households locked out.
This table shows the share of households priced out of new homes by state in 2026. A household is considered “priced out” if total housing costs—principal, interest, taxes, and insurance—exceed 28% of income, based on median new home prices and a 6% mortgage rate.
State % of HouseholdsWhile high-cost states like Hawaii and Massachusetts rank among the least affordable, others such as Maine and Wyoming show that affordability pressures are no longer limited to major metro areas.
Affordability Isn’t Just a Coastal ProblemThe most striking takeaway is how universal the problem has become.
Even in lower-cost states like Mississippi ($267K) and West Virginia ($309K), a majority of households are still priced out new homes. While buyers need under $90,000 in income—compared to over $200,000 in the least affordable markets—that threshold remains out of reach for many.
In other words, moving to a cheaper state is no longer a reliable solution. Instead, the data points to a deeper issue, which is that incomes have not kept pace with rising housing costs across the country.
While existing homes can be more affordable than new construction, this data highlights a key constraint: much of the new housing supply entering the market is already out of reach for most households.
The Bigger PictureAs new home prices continue to outpace income growth, the gap between who can and can’t afford newly built homes is widening. That shift is reshaping where Americans live, how they build wealth, and whether homeownership is attainable at all.
If even the most affordable states are out of reach for most households looking at new homes, the question becomes harder to ignore: where can buyers realistically go next?
Learn More on the Voronoi AppTo learn more about this topic, check out this graphic on where wealth is moving in America.
Tyler Durden Sun, 05/17/2026 - 08:45