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ECB Preview: First Rate Hike Since 2023

Markets expect the ECB to hike by 25bps, the first rate hike since 2023, but do not look for explicit guidance on the path ahead, with the Council likely pledging in the statement to set monetary policy in a data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting fashion. Lagarde is likely to highlight that tightening is appropriate, for example, by repeating that the energy shock requires “some measured adjustment” in the policy stance. Goldman does not expect her to provide any specific guidance on next steps but look for her to reiterate that the Council wants to see more data and does not need to rush

SUMMARY (courtesy of Newsquawk)

• The ECB is expected to hike by 25bps, taking the Deposit Rate to 2.25%. Justified by the assessment that the ECB is past the March baseline and is closer to the adverse scenario.
• Alongside this, inflation forecasts will likely be upgraded and growth downgraded across 2026. The cut off date will have influence on the 2026 inflation view, with a later date likely to see less hawkish projections. For growth, any signs of or commentary around a technical recession being possible.
• Guidance from the statement will be non-commital with the ECB to perhaps stress a vigilant approach to policymaking, which could be interpreted as a hawkish-nod. Lagarde may be somewhat more explicit vs the statement, in an attempt to stop inflation expectations from becoming unanchored.

OVERVIEW: Recent developments place the ECB somewhere between the baseline and adverse scenarios outlined in March. An assessment that chimes with expectations for a 25bps hike and supports keeping options open for the remainder of the year. However, the balancing act between growth and inflation means that pre-committing to further tightening is not necessary at this point. Instead the ECB, whether via the statement and/or President Lagarde, will likely emphasize that it will be vigilant, or words to that effect, in safeguarding against price pressures in the EZ while acknowledging the deteriorating growth environment.

EUR/USD and the German 10yr yield approach the meeting around 1.1550 and 3.05% respectively. The market basecase, of a 25bps hike, elevated inflation forecasts and downgraded growth forecasts alongside no firm commitment to further tightening, would likely see a modest hawkish reaction in the above. If the ECB is more direct and places less emphasis on growth and more on inflation, alongside opening the door more explicitly to further tightening, ING looks for EUR/USD and the 10yr yield to rise to 1.1650 and 3.10%; levels we last traded at on the 2nd of June and 21st of May respectively. A more hawkish outcome, particularly a statement/press conference that signals the start of a tightening cycle, could see 1.1700 and 3.15%.

HAWKISH RISK: The projections could show a bigger core inflation overshoot in 2027, with greater concern around the inflation outlook in the monetary policy statement and a clearer signal that additional tightening is coming. For example, the Council could note in the statement that it judges it appropriate to “begin” tightening monetary policy (hinting at a process rather than a one-time adjustment) and Lagarde could open up July by emphasizing that the Council will have important data on second-round effects by then (provided by its corporate telephone, wage and inflation expectations surveys).  

DOVISH RISK: The Council could return to a two-sided assessment of the risks around inflation, show an inflation undershoot in 2028 (more similar to the March adverse scenario) and emphasize patience in the press conference (e.g., by stressing that it will receive a lot more data by the September meeting). 

PREVIOUS MEETING: In April, the ECB held the Deposit Rate at 2.00% as expected. The statement emphasized that the US is well positioned to navigate the current period of uncertainty, and as such they were not pre-committing to a particular rate path, sticking to a data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach. No new forecasts in April, but the commentary emphasised that upside inflation risks had “intensified”, while longer-term expectations remained “well anchored”. On the growth side, downside risk had “intensified”. The statement sparked a mild dovish reaction, as outside calls for a more hawkish shift were unwound. The subsequent press conference saw President Lagarde unveil that the ECB debated a rate hike, but the decision to hold rates was unanimous. A press conference that sparked a hawkish reaction in European assets. The hawkish skew was added to by subsequent sources, suggesting that a June hike was seen as very likely, Reuters reported.

PRICES: Mayʼs inflation data had a headline rate of 3.2%, ticking up from the 3.0% in April. Pertinently, the ECBʼs HICP Y/Y forecast for 2026 is 2.6% in the baseline, 3.5% in the adverse and 4.4% in the severe scenario. As such, the May print took the bloc further away from the baseline and towards the adverse projection, a point that factors firmly in favour of tightening monetary policy; though the gap to the severe scenario means a 50bps move or pre-committing to tightening post-June are not warranted yet. Within the May series, the internals saw further upside in the energy component and pertinently a jump in Services, to 3.5% from 3.0%. Continuing with May, the Final S&P PMIs showed price pressures intensifying “to their most worrying for over three years, hinting at inflation potentially running close to 4% in the coming months.”. A view that, if shared among policy setters, could see some in favour of more explicit guidance than the statement and/or Lagarde are likely to give. From the ECB itself, the latest Consumer Expectations Survey for April (released in June) vs March, showed one- and five-year consumer expectations remain the same at 4.0% and 2.4% respectively. While the three-year view moderated to 2.9% (prev. 3.0%). Figures that are all above the 2% long-term target, however, the unchanged view shows that expectations were not unanchored in April and, while somewhat dated, provides policymakers with further scope to take an “insurance” hike, given the clear price pressures, but not commit to anything further at this stage.

For the new macroeconomic projections, the above points to an upgrade of at the very least the baseline view, but likely also one or possibly both of the alternative scenarios. Specifically, Nordea expects the 2026 baseline to lift to 3.0% (prev. 2.6%). One point of nuance in the forecasts, particularly for prices, is the cutoff date. In March, the ECB used an exceptionally late cut-off date and a very small date range for the assessment. The above is based on that being repeated and an early June cut-off being used. If not, then the technical assumptions around energy will be significantly higher and as such the near-term inflation view would be more hawkish vs a later cut-off.

ECONOMY: Q1 GDP for the EZ stood at -0.2% Q/Q, after being subject to a marked downward revision in the 3rd estimate from 0.15%. However, some of this stems from a -12.1% print from Ireland, hit by the unwind of tariff and pharmaceutical related activity in the comparison. A more timely indication courtesy of the S&P PMI for May points to another -0.2% Q/Q print in Q2, bar any significant shift in June; if realised in the hard data, that would see the EZ enter a technical recession. Furthermore, the PMI showed a pick up in labour market losses. Unemployment data from member nations remains weak, with the EZ figure in April ticking up to 6.3% (prev. 6.2%). The most timely data available at the time of writing is the German GfK for June, which was bleak at -29.8 though it did improve slightly from -33.3 despite NIM outlining that the “negative impact of the conflict in the Middle East remains largely unchanged…”.

For the new macroeconomic projections, the data is indicative of a downgrade. In March, the 2026 baseline, adverse and severe scenarios were 0.9%, 0.6% and 0.4% respectively. Nordea looks for the 2026 baseline to be downgraded to 0.7%. Taking the ECB closer but not to the adverse scenario from March, and as such chimes with the narrative for an insurance hike and while it does not aid the argument for further 2026 tightening, it does not shut the door to a post-June move.

COMMENTARY: Overall, commentary chimes with consensus for a 25bps hike in June, given recent economic developments, but that it is too soon to commit to any tightening thereafter. Recently, Schnabel (26th May) outlined that prices are between the baseline and the adverse scenario, adding that “in terms of persistence, we have actually moved beyond the adverse scenario, which assumed a rapid normalisation of oil prices.”. Prior to that, on the 26th of May, Schnabel said that they should hike in June irrespective of the peace proposal. Simkus (29th May) described a near term move as an insurance hike, but also downplayed the impact of even 50bps of tightening over 2026, noting that the timing for a second move is less clear. In terms of forward guidance, Lane (26th May) remarked that they will not be pre-commiting to a particular path after June.

TRADES: Goldman likes to receive July/September meeting switch at ~18bps (72% chance). The bank thinks that you can have both a (near term) hawkish path to no hike in September, as well as a dovish path. The (near term) hawkish path would involve no near-term resolution on Iran, with the SOH continuing to be closed by the time of the July meeting, leading to a second ECB hike in July. Subsequently, you could then either have a resolution between July and September, or signs of further economic weakness and limited wage pass through, meaning that, by the time of the September meeting, and with policy rates at the upper end of neutral, the ECB decides to skip a rate hike at the September meeting. The dovish path is one of a near term resolution and a glut of oil from ships stuck in SOH hitting the market, pushing down energy prices and inflation and inflation expectations. In this scenario, it is very feasible, that the ECB will not hike rates again after the June meeting. 

THOUGHTS FROM GOLDMAN'S TRADING DESK:

Jari Stehn (Head of European Economics): We expect the ECB to hike by 25bp but do not look for explicit guidance on the path ahead, with the Council likely pledging in the statement to set monetary policy in a data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting fashion. Lagarde is likely to highlight that tightening is appropriate, for example, by repeating that the energy shock requires “some measured adjustment” in the policy stance. We do not expect her to provide any specific guidance on next steps but look for her to reiterate that the Council wants to see more data and does not need to rush. 

George Cole (Head of European Rates Strategy): Our bias is for terminal rate pricing lower and flatter curve. Key for today’s meeting will be the signal on July, currently priced not far off 50/50. If the message is that July is more of a tail outcome then market can shift towards pricing one and done, particularly given leak lower in energy prices on view that SoH is more impaired than fully shut with increasingly more oil transiting (though obviously a lot of headline risks with waR). Ultimately September is a long way off with ample time for resolution and/or the lower growth impacts of the war to come through. Specifically we will be watching: 

1. Core inflation forecasts and whether they show persistence – GS econ are 2.5% both for 26/27; would be dovish if lower/inverts 
2. Whether Lagarde emphasizes that tomorrow's move buys time to watch the data and that currently little signs of 2nd round effects in the labour market 

Jan Scheffel (Global Co-Head of Short Term Macro Trading): Given the high level of uncertainty we expect the ECB to keep full optionality on the future policy rate path, neither pre-committing or ruling out a move at the July meeting. We would expect Lagarde to use communication along the line of: “In assessing the timing and extend of further policy adjustments, the governing council will take a data-dependant, meeting by meeting, approach. We are not pre-committed to any policy path.” 

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/11/2026 - 07:45

Gotham FC is getting some new digs.

The PS 3 Charrette School in Manhattan's Greenwich Village is hosting a workshop for parents and staffers to participate in "listening circles" that separate them into groups by race and ethnicity.

Taylor Swift got an early peek at the venue security for her upcoming wedding.

This is some-fin else.

Strategy (MSTR) CEO Says Bitcoin Sale Was About Market 'Inoculation', Not A Retreat

Authored by Micah Zimmerman via BitcoinMagazine.com,

Strategy Inc. CEO Phong Le somewhat pushed back Tuesday against the wave of criticism that followed the company’s first Bitcoin sale since 2022, telling CNBC’s Power Lunch that the move was a deliberate, limited exercise designed to signal operational flexibility — not a philosophical reversal.

“We wanted to inoculate the market and we wanted to test our processes,” Le said in what the network described as a first-time interview. “We learned that everything works.”

Between May 26 and May 31, Strategy sold 32 Bitcoin for approximately $2.5 million at an average price of $77,135 per coin — a transaction that, despite representing just 0.004% of the company’s total holdings, set off an outsized market reaction and reignited debate over whether Michael Saylor’s famous “never sell” doctrine was being abandoned.

BITCOIN’S FOUR-YEAR CYCLE IS STILL IN PLAY

Strategy CEO Phong Le however says the drawdowns are "much more" than just where we're at in the four-year cycle.

Inflation, rates, wars, and regulatory clarity are all shaping $BTC's next move. pic.twitter.com/TZANZZaQIF

— CryptosRus (@CryptosR_Us) June 10, 2026

Le was careful to frame the disposal in terms of balance sheet management rather than conviction. He cited three reasons for the sale: establishing that Strategy can sell when necessary, confirming that internal systems for executing Bitcoin disposals are fully operational, and creating opportunities to capture tax losses on Bitcoin acquired at lower cost basis — the company has purchased BTC at prices ranging from $10,000 to $125,000 per coin.

Critically, he said the sale was not driven by financial distress.

“We did not need to sell our Bitcoin to satisfy our dividends,” Le said. “We’re able to do that through other capital-raising activities.”

Proceeds from the sale were directed toward distributions on the company’s STRC perpetual preferred stock.

Le also pointed out that Strategy remained a net buyer: on balance, the company purchased approximately 1,500 Bitcoin over the same period it sold the 32 coins.

The most pointed exchange came when the host pressed Le on the backlash from investors who believed Strategy had pledged never to liquidate its Bitcoin reserves. Le acknowledged the frustration but was unapologetic.

“We have a set of constituents that we have to be able to answer to,” he said, listing common stockholders, preferred shareholders, debt holders, and Bitcoin holders. “When it makes sense for our common stockholders for us to sell our Bitcoin, we will.”

Le suggested the loudest critics were retail investors and “crypto anarchists” ideologically committed to permanent hodling — not the institutional shareholders the company interacts with directly.

“Our institutional shareholders that we talked to don’t seem to be unnerved by it,” he said.

This was not Strategy’s first Bitcoin disposal. In December 2022, the company sold 704 BTC at $16,776 per coin and repurchased 810 BTC two days later — a tax-loss harvesting maneuver that exploited the lack of a crypto wash-sale rule.

Jeffrey’s chief market strategist David Zervos, who joined Le on set, asked about the macro picture around Bitcoin, noting weakness across traditional safe-haven assets. Le acknowledged the broader headwinds, citing three macro forces pressuring Bitcoin: uncertainty around the Federal Reserve’s interest rate path, two ongoing global wars, and a lack of regulatory clarity from Congress on pending crypto legislation.

Still, Le remained bullish on Bitcoin’s long-term thesis. 

“I do think Bitcoin is a hedge against inflation. I think Bitcoin is a hedge against big government,” he said, adding that the current environment — potentially a cyclical drawdown — mirrors the roughly 75% pullback seen in May 2022, four years ago.

Bitcoin price and Strategy shares under pressure

The market, for now, is less sanguine. Bitcoin was trading around $61,600 on June 10, 2026 — down more than 40% from its all-time high of $126,198 reached in October 2025. The sell-off deepened after the Strategy announcement coincided with record spot ETF outflows estimated between $2.8 billion and $3.5 billion, triggering $1.8 billion in forced liquidations in a single day.

MSTR shares have been caught in the same downdraft, trading near $117–$127 as of this week — down roughly 67% from their 52-week high of $457.

Strategy has since resumed buying, acquiring 1,550 BTC at an average price of $65,332 between June 1 and June 7 in a move analysts characterized as an effort to restore market confidence. 

As of late May, the company held 845,256 Bitcoin at a total cost basis of approximately $63.97 billion.

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/11/2026 - 07:20

Canada is joining a growing global effort to tighten safety protections.

Iran launched a barrage of missiles at a trio of US allies in the Middle East early Thursday after American forces carried out a second round of airstrikes.

Trade $10, get $10 for the RBC Canadian Open with the Kalshi promo code NYPMAX.

"I've always said that I might not be the smartest person to walk into the room, but you won't outwork me," said Quiana Rowe.

The Knicks made history by rallying from a 29-point deficit in Game 4 of the Finals on Wednesday for a 107-106 win — finishing the game on a 55-25 run.

An elderly Mississippi couple dubbed the “sweetest” were allegedly killed by a teenage burglar who is also accused of firing at cops during a six-hour standoff after barricading himself in the house.

Alcoa Plunges Most In Year After CFO Warns Alumina Unit "Will Be Underwater" Amid Hormuz Disruption

Alcoa shares in New York were hammered the most in over a year on Wednesday after CFO Molly Beerman warned investors that the company's alumina segment faces heavy losses from the energy shock and ongoing disruption at the Hormuz maritime chokepoint.

Beerman was blunt with investors while giving a presentation at the Wells Fargo Industrials & Materials Conference.

She said, "Our alumina segment is very pressured right now," adding, "The segment as a whole will be underwater."

Beerman said the unprofitability in the alumina segment stems from a toxic cocktail of soaring energy costs, supply disruptions in the Gulf region, and LNG disruptions in Western Australia following Cyclone Narelle.

Alcoa's alumina refineries are heavily exposed because they rely on fuel and electricity, and typically ship material to aluminum smelters in the Persian Gulf.

Alcoa's alumina refineries are mainly in Western Australia, Brazil, and Spain. None are located in the Gulf region.

What's important is that the company's refining assets are outside the Gulf, but its alumina cargoes feed Gulf smelters, making the business exposed to ongoing Hormuz shipping disruption and Gulf energy shocks.

Alcoa expects 2026 Alumina segment production of 9.7-9.9 million metric tons and shipments of 11.8-12.0 million metric tons.

Beerman's warning sent shares tumbling 9.5% in New York on Wednesday, marking the largest one-day drop in 14 months. Shares were up 2% in premarket trading, clawing back some of yesterday's losses.

Year-to-date, the stock is up 23.4% and is nearing its 2022 highs.

According to Bloomberg data, Wall Street analysts are mostly bullish on AA. 

We have cited several institutional metal desks, including Mercuria, Goldman, and JPMorgan, all of which see the Gulf energy shock producing a supply shock in the aluminum market. This has sent prices back to 2022 highs.

Mercuria commodities analyst Nick Snowdon recently told Reuters on the sidelines of the Financial Times Commodities Global Summit in Lausanne, Switzerland, that "The scale of the supply shock we're seeing in the aluminum market is probably the largest single supply shock a base metals market has suffered in the post-2000 era."

Snowdon then told the outlet, "We are already in a 'black swan' event. No one could have foreseen something on this scale."

Latest reporting:

• Aluminum Supply Crisis Is About To Get Worse
• Aluminum Bull Case Gains Traction As Output Shrinks

Alcoa recently warned investors that the energy shock would weigh on second-quarter earnings.

 

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/11/2026 - 06:55