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Sometimes players need to be protected from themselves.

All he could do was take the moment in. 

More than half of Americans say splurging on lavish, premium meals is their go-to move for turning a rough week around, according to new research.

75% Of US GDP Growth In The First Quarter Was Due To AI

On the surface, today's final revision (aka 3rd estimate) of the US Q1 GDP print was unremarkable: Real GDP grew 2.1% annualized in the first quarter, a reversal of last month's downward revision of 1.6%, but back to where the original print was when it was reported in April, when the BEA reported 2.0% growth. 

The print reflected a downward revision to imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, that was partly offset by a sharp downward revision to consumer spending.

Taking a closer look at the components, net exports contribution being revised sharply higher to -0.4% from -1.3% previously drove the improvement while consumption was much weaker. Real personal consumption expenditures revised sharply lower to 0.5% (saar) from 1.4% (saar). This is unexpected as virtually everyone was convinced that bumper tax rebates from Trump's OBBBA "stimulus" would push Q1 personal spending; in retrospect, spending in Q1 was far weaker than expected. 

That said, real spending in May climbed 0.3% (3.2% annualized), while April was revised to 0% from 0.1%. This suggests an okay pace of spending but not boomy across the two months (1.6% annualized) considering bumper tax refunds putting extra money in people's pockets. 

Yet, as before, when we get to fixed investment, something remarkable emerges: Residential housing investment declined 1.7% and subtracted 0.3% from the bottom line GDP print. This was the 5th consecutive decline as residential investment has declined, and 7th of the past 8 quarters. To be expected at a time of rising interest rates. 

But Nonresidential fixed investment was the outlier, soaring by 8%, and responsible for 1.42% of the 2.1% bottom line print.

Let's take a closer look at the breakdown.

The chart below shows quarterly annualized GDP growth broken down by components. It shows that Q1 GDP grew at exactly 2.100% in Q1. Also notable is that traditionally strong consumption, added just 0.37% of the bottom line number, as per the discussion above; this was offset by net trade being a far smaller detractor from GDP growth at -0.37% with, inventories (0.23%) and government (0.74%) providing a modest offset. 

The highlighted block is Fixed Investment, which contributed 1.11%. However, keep in mind that residential fixed investment subtracted 0.30% from the total number, which means that Nonresidential fixed investment was responsible for 1.42% of the 2.1% GDP print.

Focusing on the fixed investment component, we find the following: as noted above, it was all about non-residential fixed investment.

Zooming into this segment, we find that Nonresidential equipment grew by 5.8%, or contributing 0.8% to the 2.1% GDP, while Intellectual Property products grew just over 5.3%, and added 0.74% to the bottom line GDP. 

While IP is clear - it consists primarily of Software, the kind that one uses to create and develop AI tools, as well as R&D - the components behind Nonresidential equipment need a closer look again, and here we find that Information Processing equipment, i.e., data centers, grew at a stunning 14%, comprising virtually all of the 0.81% contribution to 2.1% GDP growth.

And there you have it: between Software (0.74% of the GDP growth) and Nonresidential Equipment (0.81%), AI - which was the primary driver behind growth in both - contributed just over 1.5% to GDP growth of 2.1%; in other words about 74% of all US growth in Q1 was due to AI.

Another way to visualize the remarkable impact of spending on "computers" is the chart below: it clearly shows just how reliant the US has become on spending on computer products.

And that's why AI is now not only a market bubble, but it has become a core anchor propping up the entire US economy; it's also why the US government will have no choice but to backstop it once the inevitable AI bubble pops. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/25/2026 - 11:10

Bayer Stock Soars After Supreme Court Guts Core Legal Theory Behind 1000s Of Roundup Cases

Bayer AG shares soared in Frankfurt on Thursday morning after the Supreme Court sided with the German pharmaceutical and life sciences giant in a major Roundup ruling expected to block thousands of lawsuits alleging it failed to warn consumers that the weedkiller could cause cancer.

Bloomberg reported that the Supreme Court voted 7 - 2 to throw out a $1.25 million jury verdict won by Missouri resident John Durnell, who blamed years of Roundup exposure for his non-Hodgkin's lymphoma.

The first opinion is in Monsanto v. Durnell. The court holds that the federal law governing pesticide labels bars a lawsuit against Monsanto, the maker of Roundup weedkiller, for failing to include a warning on the label about the risks of cancer.https://t.co/cPzdF5lgH5

— SCOTUSblog (@SCOTUSblog) June 25, 2026

Justice Brett Kavanaugh wrote for the majority that federal law "demands" uniform pesticide labels and that the state-law "failure-to-warn" claim at issue in the case "would require a cancer warning on Roundup's label, a requirement 'in addition to' and 'different from' the label required by EPA."

Justices Ketanji Brown Jackson and Neil Gorsuch dissented.

NEWS: The Supreme Court just gutted the central legal theory behind tens of thousands of Roundup cancer lawsuits.

In a 7-2 ruling in Monsanto v. Durnell, the justices held that federal pesticide law preempts state "failure-to-warn" claims, meaning a jury can't punish Bayer-owned… pic.twitter.com/zrIsgJDBu5

— Benjamin Ryan (@benryanwriter) June 25, 2026

The ruling is a major milestone in Bayer's years-long court battle over Roundup, which it acquired from Monsanto for $63 billion in 2018. The company has since stopped using glyphosate in Roundup products sold at major retailers.

Earlier this year, Bayer announced a proposed $7.25 billion class action settlement to resolve tens of thousands of current and future lawsuits.

Shares of Bayer soared 20%...

...marking the largest intraday gain since March 2003.

Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Holly Froum wrote in a note before the high court ruling that about $787 million in existing Roundup verdicts could be affected by the decision.

To sum up, the high court ruled that consumers cannot sue Bayer over the absence of a cancer warning on Roundup labels because federal regulators had already concluded that such a warning was not required.

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/25/2026 - 10:55

Apple on Thursday slapped a slew of its MacBook and iPad products with higher prices – blaming the price hikes on an AI-driven surge in demand for memory chips.

The Los Angeles County Registrar-Recorder/County Clerk said a voter registration application may not be rejected solely because the address provided appears to be a business or other non-traditional residential location.

A longtime conservative talk radio host has abruptly vanished from the Fresno airwaves after a decade behind the mic.

Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei has been replaced at high-stakes White House meetings – which is helping progress talks with Trump officials, since Amodei was being a “weirdo,” according to a report.

Bitcoin Tumbles As Strategy Slammed, Faces Massive $10 Billion Option Expiry

Moments after the cash market opened, bitcoin plunged almost $3,000 in a matter of seconds to $58,000, on no news, sending the price to the lowest level since Sept 2024. 

This was a strange move for bitcoin because while stocks do tend to move rapidly at cash open as that's when options restart trading (as we have noted, in recent months most investors are trading almost exclusively in options and avoiding the underlying securities completely), bitcoin trades within its own ecosystem that is open 24/7 and is - or rather should be - far less reliant on key stock market time triggers. 

Instead, the trigger for the drop was not bitcoin but rather its biggest treasury sponsor, Strategy, which plunged as much as 8% in what now appears to be a coordinated effort to send MSTR stock sharply lower using puts (hence the move at exactly 9:30am when option trading started), which in turn has led to lower prices on its various tranches of perpetual preferred stocks, and ultimately, lead to more bitcoin selling on fears Michael Saylor will have to sell even more bitcoin. 

However, today it's not just MSTR that is depressing bitcoin: the largest cryptocurrency is facing a massive options expiry that risks putting more pressure on a market already struggling with fading institutional demand and macroeconomic headwinds.

According to Bloomberg, about $10 billion of notional value in Bitcoin options is set to expire on Deribit, the largest crypto options venue, at 4 p.m. Friday in Singapore. Because most of those options are bullish bets and Bitcoin has been falling, there’s potential for traders to turn defensive or outright bearish. 

“This is a book that has been positioned for higher prices over the medium term, now being marked against a spot that has slipped,” said Jean-David Pequignot, chief commercial officer at Deribit. “The consensus long-call positioning has drifted offside.” 

After dipping as low as $58K, the lowest level in almost 2 years, bitcoin was trading below its 200-week moving average, a technical level that can signal a prolonged bear market.

The Bitcoin options expiring on Deribit represent about 37% of open interest, with the ratio of puts to calls at 0.83, according to Pequignot, indicating more bets are on Bitcoin appreciating. 

The bulk of call open interest is now out of the money, meaning the contracts have no intrinsic value at current prices. Puts, by contrast, are clustered around $60,000 to $65,000 and $70,000 to $75,000, and mostly in the money.

Of course, just because there is a big expiry doesn't mean more selling is guaranteed: “expiry mechanics clear positioning; they do not set direction,” said Adam Haeems, head of asset management at Tesseract Group. But the key issue is still a call-skewed market falling into thin quarter-end and summer liquidity, he said.

“Thin books plus a concentrated expiry mean Friday’s move likely overshoots in whichever direction flow tips first, then mean-reverts once dealer hedging unwinds,” Haeems said. If dealers finds themselves in a sharp negative gamma position, then any subsequent moves in bitcoin will be significantly amplified. 

Any sharp move around expiry may say more about positioning than a lasting shift in trend. Haeems said the more important test will come in the first full week of July, after the quarterly book has cleared and leverage has been reduced.

Meanwhile, the flow picture continues to deteriorate as US-listed Bitcoin funds posted almost $3 billion of net outflows in June so far, and that ignores the relentless pressure on Michael Saylor's Strategy and its various tranches preferred securities.

Griffin Ardern, co-founder of Primal Fund, said option traders’ longer-dated bearish bias toward Bitcoin has intensified, while hawkish Federal Reserve commentary and elevated Treasury yields suggest investors are pricing in tighter liquidity.

“Under conditions of contracting liquidity, BTC typically does not fare so well,” he said.
 

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/25/2026 - 10:40

The Supreme Court ruled Thursday that the Trump administration could go ahead and yank temporary protected status for thousands of Syrian and Haitian migrants.

After a stormy start to the week for much of the East, a few dry days will be dampened by another round of rain, isolated flash flooding heading into the end of the workweek and the start of the weekend.

Smyth, a real estate attorney and law firm owner, slammed Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s hand-picked board --- of which he appointed six of the nine members -- for turning a blind eye to rising building and insurance costs for landlords.

Johnny Knoxville went full James Bond for the “Jackass: Best and Last” premiere.

“Jackass: Best and Last” is a love letter to stupidity... and played very well with the crowd.

The high court’s 6-3 decision means people can carry guns onto privately owned property like shopping malls and gas stations, unless the owners specifically say guns are banned at their establishments.

A San Diego scorned ex-wife admitted guilt in spying on her old husband's new beau, including moments when members of his new family were undressed.

Cusack, who is back in the spotlight to promote "Toy Story 5," explained why she's always preferred her low-key life in Chicago.

Cusack, who is back in the spotlight to promote "Toy Story 5," explained why she's always preferred her low-key life in Chicago.

Meet the Amazon fitness find that my mother and I fight over every morning.