The global market meltup is rolling on. US stock futures inch higher, but are off session highs, with oil falling for a third straight day as traders waited for updates on a potential US-Iran peace deal that would reopen oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. As of 8:00am ET, S&P and Nasdaq futures were 0.1% higher, after the benchmarks notched back-to-back record highs. In premarket trading, most Mag 7 stocks were higher although Arm Holdings dropped 8% after the chip company reported weak fourth-quarter royalty revenue, hurt by sluggishness in the smartphone industry; the company warned about weaker demand for lower-end phones due to higher memory cost. Whirlpool plunged 18% after the household appliance manufacturer cut its revenue forecast for the full year, missing the average analyst estimate. Overseas indexes are also rising, bolstered by stocks tied to artificial intelligence. Japan’s Nikkei 225 was a particular standout, climbing 5.6% after an 18% rally in Softbank shares. Brent traded near $99 a barrel, extending a 12% slump in the two prior sessions on mounting confidence that an agreement in the Middle East is within reach. The dollar headed for its worst week in a month. Global bonds continued their advance as inflationary pressures receded. Today's US economic data calendar slate includes 1Q preliminary nonfarm productivity and jobless claims (8:30am), March construction spending (10am), April New York Fed 1-year inflation expectations (11am) and March consumer credit (3pm). Fed speaker slate includes Hammack (10am, 2:05pm), Daly (12:30pm), Kashkari (1pm) and Williams (3:30pm)
In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mostly higher (Tesla +1.7%, Alphabet +1.1%, Nvidia +0.1%, Microsoft +0.7%, Amazon +0.3, Meta Platforms +0.02%, Apple -0.1%).
Elsewhere in AI, Anthropic signed an agreement with Elon Musk’s SpaceX to access computing resources from a large SpaceX data center. Anthropic’s CEO said his company is “working as quickly as possible” to secure more computing resources after experiencing “80x growth” in annualized revenue and usage in 1Q.
An ongoing slide in oil prices is helping to lift investors’ mood, with Brent crude futures trading below $100 a barrel this morning. The U.S. and Iran are getting closer to restarting talks to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with discussions possibly resuming as early as next week in Islamabad. While the US is waiting on Iran to respond to its proposal which sent stocks surging yesterday, and it’s unclear whether they’ll accept. But stocks have largely focused on a solid earnings season and the tech trade anyway. The inverse relationship between stocks and oil prices is “long gone,” wrote Bloomberg Opinion columnist John Authers. The resumption of shipments through Hormuz would also reduce risks around the economic impact of the war. US Treasury yields are retreating for a third straight session alongside the dollar, which is now trading lower than when the war began.
“Even though there is not yet a final peace agreement, markets are clearly pricing in a meaningful step forward toward a resolution,” said Francisco Simón, head of investment strategy at Santander Asset Management. “The key point is that this reduces the probability of the most negative scenarios, particularly those involving a more prolonged shock to global growth.”
That said, there are clear signs of mania: the SOX chip index is now up more than 60% this year - a parabolic move that suggests “we are in semi-irrational chase mode,” Goldman Delta-One head Richard Privorotsky warns. Meanwhile, in a sign the entire market has become one giant gamma squeeze, the S&P traded a record $2.6 trillion notional of calls yesterday..
... with almost 60% of every SPX option yesterday traded a call.
There are a few signs of the rally broadening out, with the S&P 500 equal-weight index closing at a record for the first time since late February. But there’s really just one trade in town, with the SOX hitting new records almost daily. “Until supply normalizes, the market can continue to justify increasingly large numbers across the ecosystem, although the obvious risks are building,” Goldman partner Privorotsky wrote in a note.
The global chip euphoria helped South Korea’s stock market to overtake Canada’s, and is boosting niche firms around the world, with Sweden’s Silex Microsystems having the strongest first day of trading for a sizable European IPO in almost five years. Still, there may be a limit — after more than doubling in value this year, ARM shares fell after it warned of sluggishness in the smartphone industry.
In eco data, planned job cuts continued to mount in the tech sector last month, even as overall private-sector layoff announcements receded, according to Challenger data. And consumer sentiment remains closely watched. Costco’s April comparable sales rose 11.6%, aided by 3.2% gas-price inflation. Whirlpool cut its revenue forecast, noting North American industry demand reached recession-level lows.
The Trump administration has begun paying out refunds for the $166 billion in global tariffs that the US Supreme Court declared unlawful earlier this year. The FCC said that an inquiry the commission launched into the rising cost of watching sports on TV may not lead to any regulatory action. In hedge funds, SPX Capital is undergoing a major restructuring, with senior partners departing and a rethink of operations that will include shutting its London office. Point72 is creating a new fundamental stock-picking unit led by Hong Kong-based star portfolio manager James Lau.
With earnings season gradually drawing to a close, of the 411 S&P 500 companies to have reported so far this earnings season, 84% have beaten analysts’ forecasts, while 11% have missed
In Europe, the Stoxx 600 is down 0.2% after erasing an earlier gain.Uutilities and food beverage shares led declines while luxury, travel and leisure stocks are among the best performers. Here are the biggest movers Thursday:
Earlier, Asian stocks rose to a record high, supported by a catchup rally in Japanese shares and optimism that the US and Iran are nearing a deal to end their war. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed as much as 2.3% after gaining 2.4% in the previous session. TSMC, SoftBank Group and SK Hynix provided the biggest boost to the advance. Japan led gains in the region as trading resumed after a long holiday. Shares in Taiwan and Hong Kong also outperformed. Tech shares continued to draw investor interest, with the MSCI Asia Pacific Information Technology Index gaining as much as 3.4% to a record.
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index falls 0.1%. The Norwegian krone outperforms, rising 0.9% against the greenback after the Norges Bank hiked interest rates. Most economists had them on hold. The Riksbank did stand pat.
In rates, treasuries hold small gains into early US session, supported by lower oil prices and European bond rally. Brent crude oil holds below $100 a barrel, extending Wednesday’s nearly 8% slump, as investors weigh latest attempts by US and Iran to reach a peace agreement. US yields are 2bp-3bp richer on the day with curve spreads narrowly mixed; 10-year, lower by 2bp near 4.33%, slightly outperforms German and UK counterparts. European government bonds also edge up. Gilts are also in focus with UK local elections underway. US session includes weekly jobless claims and several Fed speakers. IG dollar issuance slate includes a couple of deals. Three names priced $14.5 billion Wednesday, led by Eli Lilly’s $9b eight-part offering. On average, issuers paid negative concessions on deals that were 3.7 times oversubscribed.
In commodities, brent crude futures fall another 2% to around $99 a barrel as the US waits on Iran to respond to its proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end the war. Precious metals gain with spot silver up 4%. Bitcoin falls.
Today's US economic data calendar slate includes 1Q preliminary nonfarm productivity and jobless claims (8:30am), March construction spending (10am), April New York Fed 1-year inflation expectations (11am) and March consumer credit (3pm). Fed speaker slate includes Hammack (10am, 2:05pm), Daly (12:30pm), Kashkari (1pm) and Williams (3:30pm)
Market snapshot
Top Overnight News
Iran News
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
Asia-Pac stocks traded broadly in the green, as a continuation of gains seen stateside as hopes of an end of the US-Iran conflict spurred risk-on flows. ASX 200 continued its rebound and is set for 2 consecutive days of gains. Miners were the biggest gainers while Energy names slumped. Shares of Tabcorp have nose-dived after the Co. stated that AUSTRAC has commenced an enforcement investigation with serious concerns over money laundering and terrorism financing risks. Nikkei 225 returned from its holiday with the need to catch up to the gains seen in equities while it was closed. As a result, the Nikkei surged to new ATHs and extended above the 63,000 handle, driven by tech majors SoftBank and Ibiden. KOSPI underperformed its APAC peers, as it consolidated following its surge beyond the 7,000 handle. SK Securities raised its PT for Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix to a price that is 88% and 87% higher, respectively, than their current price, reaffirming the tech strength. Shanghai Comp. and Hang Seng gained despite a lack of single-stock news. Continuing on the chip theme, Montage has overtaken CATL as the most expensive dual-listed stock in Hong Kong relative to its mainland shares
Top Asian News
European bourses are broadly modestly firmer, attempting to build on the hefty gains seen in the prior session. Geopolitics remains the key focus this morning, with Iran expected to provide its reply to the US proposal for ending the war to mediators on Thursday, CNN reported. Sentiment in early morning trade was lifted after Al Arabiya reported that "the coming hours will witness a breakthrough for the situation of the ships stuck in the strait". European sectors are mixed. Travel & Leisure takes the top spot, joined closely by Consumer Products and then Autos. Sectors which have broadly benefited from the risk-tone and/or lower energy prices. Elsewhere, Utilities is found right at the foot of the pile, joined closely by Telecoms. In terms of key movers: Henkel (+3.9%, sales topped exp.), Rheinmetall (-3.1%, missed on Q1 EPS, but reaffirmed outlook), Telecom Italia (+3.2%, revenue +1.4% amidst strong Brazil growth), Shell (-1.7%, EPS and Rev. topped expectations whilst announcing a USD 3bln buyback), Flutter (-3.6%, cut guidance despite reporting higher Q1 revenue).
Top European News
FX
Central Banks
Fixed Income
Commodities
Trade/Tariffs
Geopolitics
US Event Calendar
DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
I wake up this morning to be told by my new WHOOP that after two weeks of sleep and activity data it can now reveal I'm only 43.2 years old in WHOOP years, nearly 9 years younger than my biological age. However just as I was about to crack open a bottle of morning champagne, alongside a bacon sandwich to celebrate, it told me that current data momentum suggests I'm ageing 1.6 times quicker than the average. So by the end of next week I could be in my 70s! Sounds like a recipe to be up all night tonight worried.
The time to be up all night and worried about the war in Iran might be past its peak after the news flow of the last 24 hours with no substantial push back to the optimistic Axios story that broke yesterday mid-morning London time. Oil is consolidating this morning after a big slump yesterday, which left Brent crude -7.83% lower on the day at $101.27/bbl. So that led to a huge bond rally as investors priced out the chance of rate hikes, with European front-end yields seeing double digit declines. Moreover, continued momentum from the AI trade helped propel risk assets to new highs as well, with the S&P 500 (+1.46%) at another record. So it was a strong session all round as stagflationary fears eased.
In Asia we're also largely higher, boosted by a surging Nikkei (+5.68%) which is catching up after three days of holiday. Elsewhere the CSI (+0.20%) and the Shanghai Composite (+0.25%) are trading slightly higher, while the Hang Seng (+1.56%) is performing significantly better due to gains in technology shares. In contrast, the KOSPI (+0.11%) is underperforming relative to its regional peers after reaching a series of highs driven by gains in chipmakers. It's up over +75% YTD. Elsewhere, S&P ASX 200 (+0.80%) is brushing off data that showed Australia logging an unexpected trade deficit in March. US and Europe equity futures are fairly flat, pausing for breath after yesterday's surges.
The main driver of the moves over the last 24 hours was that Axios report that the US and Iran were close to agreeing a one-page memo that would end the war and set a framework for more detailed nuclear negotiations. Its provision would reportedly include a moratorium on nuclear enrichment for Iran, whilst the US would lift its sanctions and release billions in frozen Iranian funds in return, as well as both sides lifting restrictions around the Strait of Hormuz. And whilst the report left plenty of questions, a more positive tone continued during the day with Trump saying he thought the war “had a very good chance of ending” by next week and telling Fox News that he was “cautiously optimistic” about the proposal. He didn't look to dispute the Axios report which was notable. Meanwhile, Iran’s ISNA said that Iran was looking at the US proposal, with Bloomberg reporting that Iran is expected to send a response via Pakistan in the next two days.
That backdrop triggered a steep fall in oil prices, with Brent crude down -7.28% to $101.87/bbl, while WTI fell -7.03% to $95.08/bbl. Indeed, Brent even fell beneath $97/bbl at one point, which was its lowest intra-day level in over two weeks, though it then rebounded a bit as Trump threatened to restart bombing unless Iran “agrees to give what has been agreed to”. Still, the overarching theme was one of rising optimism and oil markets priced easing risks of persistent disruption, as 6-month Brent futures (-6.02%) saw their biggest decline since March to $85.12/bbl.
With fears of a stagflationary shock easing again, multiple equity indices like the S&P 500 (+1.46%), Nasdaq (+2.02%) and the Mag 7 (+2.00%) roared to new highs. Within the rally, chipmakers continued to outperform, driven by strong earnings from AMD (+18.61%) after it reported strong demand for AI agents. So this powered the Philly semiconductor index up +4.48%, extending its YTD gain to 62%. The positive mood was also visible in other risk assets, with US HY credit spreads tightening by 4bp to their narrowest level in three months.
Bonds also saw strong gains, with 10yr Treasury yields falling -7.6bps to 4.35%, while 2yr yields fell -7.7bps to 3.87%. That rally came as investors priced out the chances of the Fed having to hike rates over the next year, with only 5bps of hikes now being priced by next March, down from 14bps the day before. While oil drove the rally in Treasuries, we also saw the latest quarterly refunding announcement confirm that the US Treasury expects to keep bond auction sizes unchanged "for at least the next several quarters". Elsewhere, anticipation of the conflict easing led the dollar (-0.43%) to fall to its lowest level since the strikes against Iran began, while gold (+2.95) had its best day since March.
Over in Europe, markets saw an even stronger rally, given the continent’s greater exposure to the energy shock. That included significant advances for the STOXX 600 (+2.22%), FTSE 100 (+2.15%), DAX (+2.12%) and the CAC 40 (+2.94%). Moreover, bonds extended their gains as investors dialled back the prospect of imminent rate hikes. Indeed, the chance of an ECB rate hike by the June meeting fell beneath 80% by the close, its lowest in a couple of weeks. So that helped bonds extend their gains, with yields on 10yr bunds (-6.2bps), OATs (-8.8bps) and BTPs (-11.6bps) all falling. The rally was even stronger at the front-end, with 2yr bund yields falling -10.7bps. The mood in Europe was also aided by slightly better news from the PMI data, with the final Euro Area composite PMI revised up to 48.8 (vs. flash 48.6).
Staying with Europe, a key event today will be the UK’s local elections, although we won’t start to get the results until tomorrow morning. This will be important for markets because the governing Labour Party are expected to do badly, which has raised speculation that there might be a challenge against PM Keir Starmer. And in turn, the expectation is that a new Labour leader would face pressure to ease the fiscal rules and hence raise gilt issuance. That uncertainty has weighed on gilts, and the 2yr yield had risen by 100bps since the end of February, though it fell -13.8bps yesterday given the oil decline.
Finally, there wasn’t much data in the US, but we did get the ADP’s latest report of private payrolls for April, which came in a bit shy of expectations at 109k (vs 120k expected) ahead of the more important payrolls print tomorrow. That said, there was still a notable acceleration relative to prior months, and it was the strongest monthly print since January 2025.
To the day ahead now, in addition to the UK local elections we’ll receive US Q1 nonfarm productivity, March construction spending and the NY Fed inflation expectations for April. Then in Europe, we’ll get the UK April construction PMI, Germany April Construction PMI, France March trade balance and Eurozone March retail sales. Central Bank events include the Riksbank decision and Norges Bank decision, whilst speakers include the Fed’s Hammack and Williams, along with the ECB’s Kocher, Villeroy, Guindos, Lane and Schnabel. Earnings include McDonald’s, Gilead and McKesson.
Tyler Durden Thu, 05/07/2026 - 08:27A federal judge on Wednesday unsealed a purported suicide note attributed to Jeffrey Epstein, written before his first reported incident in July 2019 and discovered by his then-cellmate, Nicholas Tartaglione, tucked inside a graphic novel. The undated, unsigned document - released as part of Tartaglione’s unrelated criminal case docket - contains lines such as "They investigated me for month - found NOTHING!!!" and references to saying goodbye. It has been kept under seal for nearly seven years.
"They investigated me for months. Found NOTHING!! It is a treat to be able to choose one's time to say goodbye. Watcha want me to do- Bust out cryin!! NO FUN--NOT WORTH IT!!"The note’s release comes amid a flood of Epstein-related document dumps in 2025–2026, yet it does little to quiet the persistent, deeply unsettling questions about how Epstein actually died on August 10, 2019, inside the Metropolitan Correctional Center (MCC) in Manhattan. Official ruling: suicide by hanging. Public consensus, reinforced by every major new tranche of files: something about that story has never added up - and the weirdness only multiplies with each disclosure.
The Official Timeline vs. Reality on the GroundEpstein was found unresponsive in his cell shortly before 6:30 a.m. on August 10, 2019. Attorney General William Barr immediately called it an "apparent suicide." The medical examiner ruled it a hanging. Case closed - or so the government insisted.
The facts on the ground were different:
Then there's this...
When jail officials asked Mr. Epstein about red marks on his neck after the incident in July, he first said that Mr. Tartaglione had attacked him and that he was not suicidal. Mr. Tartaglione has long denied assaulting Mr. Epstein, who later told jail officials he “never had any issues” with his cellmate.
Mr. Tartaglione said he gave the note to his lawyers because he believed it could have been helpful if Mr. Epstein continued to claim that he had tried to hurt him. Mr. Tartaglione was convicted in 2023 and is now serving four life sentences. He has maintained his innocence and has appealed his conviction. -NYT
Then came the night itself.
The Orange Shape, the Missing Noose, and the Sleeping GuardsNewly released footage and DOJ admissions confirm that at approximately 10:39 p.m. on August 9, an "orange-colored shape" moved up the L Tier staircase toward Epstein’s isolated, locked tier. The observation log initially described it as possibly "an inmate escorted up." The DOJ’s Office of Inspector General later called it an unidentified corrections officer carrying orange "linen or bedding." Officers on duty insisted no linen exchange happened that night. Forensic video experts reviewing the pixelated clip concluded it was far more likely a person in an orange jumpsuit.
No one was supposed to have access. The tier was supposed to be under constant visual monitoring. Instead, guards Tova Noel and Michael Thomas - both later fired - falsified more than 75 entries on count sheets and round logs. They were asleep or idle for hours. Required 30-minute checks were never performed after roughly 10:40 p.m. Noel had googled "Latest Epstein jail" at 5:42 a.m. and 5:52 a.m. the morning Epstein was found; she had also made multiple large cash deposits in the preceding months.
This illustration shows a path from the entrance to the Special Housing Unit common area to the stairs leading up to Epstein's cell. Only a narrow portion of the staircase could be seen in video released by federal officials. CBS NewsThe ligature itself - the actual noose - has never been properly accounted for. Guards gave conflicting statements about removing it. One collected item was later ruled not to be the ligature used. It simply vanished from the official record.
Autopsy Oddities That Still Haunt the CasePathologist Dr. Michael Baden, hired by Epstein’s brother Mark, examined the autopsy photos and reached a stark conclusion: the neck fractures (bilateral thyroid cartilage plus left hyoid) were "more consistent with ligature homicidal strangulation" than suicidal hanging.
He noted he had reviewed over a thousand jail hangings and had never seen three fractures like these in a suicide.
👀 Newly surfaced surveillance footage from the night of Jeffrey Epstein’s death ... and it appears to show prison guards hanging out just steps away from his cell during the suspected timeframe he had taken his own life.
🎥 DOJ pic.twitter.com/BP6ksnChCi
Additional red flags from the released medical files and autopsy:
The cell was never treated as a crime scene. No fingerprints were lifted from the ligature area. No fabric analysis was performed on the actual material used.
Post-Death Shredding and the 4Chan AnomalyLess than a week after Epstein’s body was removed, MCC staff conducted a frantic shredding operation. An inmate ordered to help dispose of the bags later told investigators he had "never seen this amount of bags of shredded documents." A corrections officer called the FBI’s National Threat Operations Center on August 16, 2019, reporting the suspicious volume. Count slips for all dates prior to August 10 were later reported "missing" when requested by prosecutors.
Separately, a 4Chan post appeared 38 minutes before the official announcement of Epstein’s death, claiming he had been "switched out." The FBI subpoenaed Apple, AT&T, and others in connection with the post.
Meanwhile in January, the DOJ released roughly three million pages, 180,000 images, and 2,000 videos. Additional tranches followed. A July 2025 joint DOJ-FBI memo declared there was "no vast human trafficking or sexual blackmail network," no client list, and definitively ruled the death a suicide. Yet the same files contain inmate testimony of guards saying "Dudes, you killed that dude" and "If he is dead, we’re going to cover it up," plus references to "Miss Noel killed Jeffrey."
House Oversight Committee Chairman James Comer subpoenaed guard Tova Noel in March 2026. FBI officers have gone on record raising alarms about document destruction and potential obstruction. ZeroHedge’s March 2026 coverage documented how the cover-up suspicions have only deepened with each new release.
Bottom line - Epstein had dirt on some of the most powerful people in the world. He died in federal custody under circumstances that read like a textbook case of how not to run a high-profile prisoner’s watch. Cameras failed at the exact moment they were needed. Guards falsified records. Evidence disappeared. Documents were shredded while investigators watched. A mysterious orange figure moved through restricted space. The noose vanished. The autopsy doesn’t match the medical history. And now, in May 2026, we finally see a suicide note from weeks earlier - a note that says "they investigated me for a month and found NOTHING."
This whole thing has been a joke from the beginning...
Tyler Durden Thu, 05/07/2026 - 08:00Whirlpool shares crashed as much as 20% in premarket trading after the appliance maker slashed its full-year outlook and posted weaker-than-expected first-quarter results. Management directly blamed the three-month war in the Middle East for triggering a collapse in U.S. appliance demand.
Whirlpool began the earnings release with this statement: "War in Iran resulted in a recession-level industry decline in the U.S. as consumer confidence collapsed in late February and March."
For the first quarter, the maker of refrigerators, freezers, dishwashers, ovens, ranges, cooktops, microwaves, and range hoods missed Bloomberg Consensus estimates across key metrics, underscoring a sharp deterioration in demand and profitability.
Net sales in the quarter came in at $3.27 billion, below the $3.42 billion estimate. North America sales were soft at $2.24 billion, missing expectations of $2.4 billion, while Latin America sales were weak at $774 million, missing estimates of $785.5 million.
The company posted an ongoing loss of 56 cents per share, compared with earnings per share of $1.70 a year earlier. This result was far below analyst expectations of a loss of 36 cents per share.
EBIT, or earnings before interest and taxes, plunged 79% year over year to $44 million, missing the $110.8 million consensus estimate.
Snapshot of 1Q Earnings (courtsey of BBG):
Net sales $3.27 billion, estimate $3.42 billion
Ongoing loss/share 56c vs. EPS $1.70 y/y, estimate EPS 36c
Ongoing EBIT $44 million, -79% y/y, estimate $110.8 million
Snapshot of 2026 forecast (courtsey of BBG):
Sees revenue $15.0 billion, saw $15.3 billion to $15.6 billion, estimate $15.21 billion (Bloomberg Consensus)
Sees ongoing EPS $3.00 to $3.50, saw about $7, estimate $4.84
Sees cash from operating activities about $700 million, saw about $850 million, estimate $763.9 million
Still sees adjusted tax rate about 25%
Shares crashed as much as 20% in premarket trading after first-quarter sales showed weaker demand, mounting margin pressure, and a decline in North American appliance demand. If these losses persist through the cash session, it would be the steepest intraday decline since the October 19, 1987, crash of 21%.
Year to date, shares are already down 24% as of Wednesday's close. The stock is now trading at 2011 levels.
Is management conveniently blaming the U.S.-Iran war? The largest trend impacting home appliance sales has been a frozen housing market over the past several years.
Tyler Durden Thu, 05/07/2026 - 07:45