Beijing is reversing its curbs on refined fuel exports after halting shipments in the opening days of the U.S.-Iran conflict. This move suggests that Chinese domestic inventories are now at comfortable levels, allowing state refiners to reopen the export spigot, even as much of Asia remains gripped by a fuel shock caused by disrupted Gulf energy flows through the Hormuz chokepoint.
There was chatter earlier this week that China's state-owned refiners were applying for government permits to resume fuel exports in May. These include China Petrochemical (Sinopec Group) and China National Petroleum Corporation.
By late in the week, Bloomberg reported that state-owned refiners had received government approval to export 500,000 tons of fuel next month.
People familiar with the upcoming shipments said the one-off quota would allow gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel to be sent to neighboring Asian countries, providing relief amid a worsening fuel crunch.
They said these shipments will be loaded onto tankers and are likely destined for Vietnam, Laos, and other nearby nations.
China's U-turn on export curbs comes weeks after the International Monetary Fund, World Bank, and International Energy Agency urged countries to avoid panic hoarding of energy supplies, as JPMorgan analysts warned that Asia would face the most immediate impact from the Gulf energy shock.
Tyler Durden Fri, 05/01/2026 - 03:30
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has been a bit on the defensive since his earlier in the week swipe at President Trump over launching the war against Iran. The German leader had told students in a talk that the US is being "humiliated" by Iranian leaders. He had also asserted, "If I had known that it would continue like this for five or six weeks and get progressively worse, I would have told him even more emphatically."
As we covered earlier Thursday, Merz has tried to soften the spat, after Trump responded on Truth Social earlier, "From my perspective, my personal relationship with the US President remains good," he told reporters. "I simply had doubts from the start about what was begun with the war in Iran. That is why I have made that clear."
But that hasn't quieted Trump, who again hit back again in a fresh Thursday morning Truth Social post, which emphasized that the German Chancellor should focus more on problems like the Russia-Ukraine war, where "he has been totally ineffective" - Trump said.
The US President once again reiterated that Germany is "broken" - and that this especially true on immigration and energy. He also reiterated that his Operation Epic Fury is making "the World, including German, a safer place!"
However, Merz earlier sought to place some of Germany's economic woes precisely on the war raging in the Middle East, and ongoing Strait of Hormuz closure. His initial April 29 remarks had included the following: "In Germany and Europe we are suffering from the consequences, such as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz,” he had said.
Wednesday night saw Trump issue a new, important threat, which he has been teasing as a possibility for day:
"The United States is studying and reviewing the possible reduction of Troops in Germany, with a determination to be made over the next short period of time," Trump wrote on Truth Social.
Responsible Statecraft's Trita Parsi is also a deep Iran war critic, but says that EU leaders are full of hypocrisy on the Iran issue, and that it needs to be called out. Parsi writes:
Merz isn't wrong in saying he's "disillusioned" with the US & Israel over Iran because they "claimed at the beginning that they could solve this problem within days. Now I must recognize: It is not solved." But he is in no position to complain. He applauded the war and as a result, owns the outcome. This is typical of some EU leaders who support and help facilitate the US's worst instincts, and then pretend they are innocent when the foreign policy adventure predictably goes wrong.
The comments underscore several European leaders’ reassessment of their relations with Trump. A tendency to smooth ties by currying favor has given way to a more sober perspective of a U.S. president who has repeatedly called into question NATO, bolstered European far-right forces and threatened to seize Greenland, a territory of Denmark.
Meanwhile Merz holds a presser in military fatigues, hilariously enough...
German Chancellor Merz demands:
Iran must come to the negotiating table.
It must stop playing for time.
It must not continue to take the entire region — and ultimately the whole world — hostage.
The military nuclear program in Iran must be ended.
There must be no more… pic.twitter.com/xkaf6Eh7wh
Regardless, the fresh critique by a leading EU head of state is certainly going to add fuel to the fire of Trump's ratcheting anti-EU and anti-NATO rhetoric, given their absence in helping the US get the Strait of Hormuz back open and the return to normal functioning of global energy transit once again.
Tyler Durden Fri, 05/01/2026 - 02:45Authored by Andrew Korbybko via Substack,
Sanctions, bureaucracy, and logistics are the primary obstacles to “diversifying economic ties and correcting the existing imbalance”, but these can be surmounted through SMEs playing a greater role, more localization and procedure simplifications, and optimizing their trade corridors.
The Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC) and Gateway House, which are among their country’s top think tanks, published a joint report in late March about moving “Toward More Balanced Russia–India Economic Relations” for the second Russia-India International Conference. It’s over 40 pages long so this piece will highlight the top takeaways and then briefly analyze them. The report began by acknowledging the challenges posed by US sanctions for reaching their goal of $100 billion in bilateral trade by 2030.
The solution that was presented, especially for the oil and financial industries, is having Indian SMEs play a much greater role due to their much less exposure (if any at all) to the US’ secondary sanctions. China’s “tea pot” model of small refineries is mentioned as an example for India’s oil industry to follow. The authors also proposed bilateral cooperation in building similar such facilities in Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Kenya, Myanmar, and Sri Lanka, for example. India would thus help Russia meet their smaller demand.
Their suggestion for expanding critical minerals cooperation is for their state-owned companies to form joint R&D initiatives to strengthen their technological self-sufficiency. As for doing the same in the broad health-related field (biotech, pharmaceuticals, etc.), it’s recommended that Indian manufacturers localize production, IP rights, etc., in Russia to better overcome bureaucratic hurdles. Russian research capabilities could also pair with Indian manufacturing capacity to expand market share in third countries.
The bureaucratic hurdles mentioned above also impede cooperation on food and textile industries, but simplifying procedures could help, especially through the creation of unified digital platforms. More industrial cooperation is possible, especially in the automotive, aviation, and railway industries, but localization is likely the prerequisite. Improving logistics across the North-South Transport Corridor and the Vladivostok-Chennai Maritime Corridor can reduce costs and thus raise incentives for scaling trade.
More technological cooperation is difficult for the multiple reasons that were enumerated in the report, not least of which is global competition, so this might prove disappointing in the future. Each’s SMEs might have better chances, but overall, this might not expand associated cooperation all that much. What’s much more promising is labor cooperation, which is already a work in progress that readers can learn more about here, basically amounting to Russia replacing Central Asian labor with Indian.
To review, sanctions, bureaucracy, and logistics are the primary obstacles to “diversifying economic ties and correcting the existing imbalance”, but these can be surmounted through SMEs playing a greater role, more localization and procedure simplifications, and optimizing their trade corridors. Although the prospects for more technological cooperation are dim, efforts nevertheless shouldn’t be abandoned due to the strategic importance of this industry, especially its AI component.
The authors conclude that Russia and India’s $100 billion trade goal by 2030 is realistic, but this requires urgently implementing the aforementioned proposals to increase 2025’s estimated $60 billion in trade by another $40 billion in the next four years, which will be very difficult to achieve and then maintain. The Third Gulf War has caused radical changes to the global energy market, Eurasian logistics, and the financial industry, however, so it’s premature to predict the odds of success till the dust finally settles.
Tyler Durden Fri, 05/01/2026 - 02:00