By Molly Schwartz, cross-asset macro strategist at Rabobank
After several days of strikes against Iran, and several morning announcements that strikes were set to continue, Trump announced via Truth Social that the “scheduled strikes and bombings against Iran” have been cancelled as a peace deal has been agreed upon. Indeed, “discussions and final points have been, in both concept and great detail, approved by all parties involved…the Naval Blockade will remain in full force and effect until this transaction is finalized — time and place of the signing to be announced shortly.”
According to our recently published energy strategy report, 103 Days, 38 Peace Deals, yesterday’s announcement would constitute the 39th peace deal declared since the onset of the war. Speaking of, the report highlights the “massive drop in Chinese imports,” leading to a downward adjustment of Rabobank’s brent crude oil forecasts, now projecting $103/bbl in Q3 of this year.
WATCH: CNN montage of Trump saying he's close to a deal with Iran. He's made the claim 39 times since the war began.pic.twitter.com/o2j782A2jF
— Clash Report (@clashreport) June 12, 2026But back to the peace deal, it should be noted that the provided list of “all parties involved” does not include one party who some would argue is pretty heavily involved…Iran. Perhaps Iran was counted in the “and others” part of the list, but this wouldn’t be the first time the US proposed a deal it thinks Iran can’t refuse, just for Iran to either outright refuse it, or announce that it never received such a peace deal in the first place. It should also be noted that some of the “involved parties” who were listed, like Israel and Pakistan, have confirmed that they had not been informed of any agreement at the time the peace deal was initially announced.
That doesn’t mean that this peace deal is for certain another empty announcement. Indeed, economists often assume things turn out similar to precedent, of course, until they don’t. But the market’s reaction to the deal coupled with the major IPO events today may add further credence to our view that defense-related rhetoric these days has just as much to do with financial markets as they do with geopolitics.
The S&P 500 had sunk around 4.4% from its recent high of $7,610 to $7,277. The peace deal announcement, however, sparked a sharp sell-off in brent crude oil of $3, breaking to its lowest level since April. The move in oil dragged interest rates down—with the 10 year down more than 8bp to trade below 4.45% again—and pulled stocks back up, fueling an almost 1.7% upwards jump in the S&P and a 3.5% jump in the NASDAQ. Coincidentally, SpaceX’s IPO, which has been said to “draw more than $100 billion in retail orders,” is also scheduled for today.
Early yesterday morning, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on X that “any damage [Iran] inflicts on our allies in the Gulf will be paid for with funds extracted from Iranian accounts. Any tolls paid to the Persian Gulf Strait Authority will be offset by funds extracted from their accounts.” This draws attention to one of the key contentions between the US and Iran when it comes to striking a deal, in that Iran wants USD 12 billion of Iranian funds unfrozen if an interim deal is achieved, which the US is reluctant to accept, remembering when the Obama Administration unfroze around USD 100 billion as part of the JCPOA in 2015, the consequences of which the US may or may not be dealing with today.
But Axios reports that this peace deal is different from the others, with “sources” saying that “gaps have been narrowed” on key issues like unfreezing Iranian assets, the process for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and how negotiations surrounding Iran’s nuclear program would be conducted.
Rates started the day yesterday bubbling higher after a hot PPI print, registering 1.1% m/m in the headline and 0.8% m/m when excluding food, energy, and trade. While the 1.1% headline print is hot enough to give anyone the sweats, the core print is particularly concerning, as it strips out the first order inflationary effects and reveals that second order inflation pressures may have already started to crawl out of the woodwork on the production side. There is only so much time before these costs are likely to be passed onto the consumer. After the PPI data release, the OIS curve had been pricing in around one Fed hike by year end. However, that number dropped to only 70% of a hike after the peace deal announcement.
In the Eurozone, meanwhile, the ECB is already full steam ahead. Yesterday, the ECB released its decision to raise the deposit facility rate by 25bp to 2.25%, making it the first major central bank to hike rates. The decision statement cites that “the war in the Middle East is generating inflation pressures, and the decision to raise rates is robust across a range of scenarios mapping out how the shock might evolve and affect the medium-term outlook for the euro area.” Our ECB whisperer, Bas van Geffen, is forecasting the next hike at the September meeting.
Tyler Durden Fri, 06/12/2026 - 09:45Authored by Kimberley Hayek via The Epoch Times,
A federal judge has barred Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton from pursuing his state court lawsuit against ActBlue, a major Democratic online fundraising platform.
President Clinton-appointed U.S. District Judge Richard Stearns ruled Thursday that the case represented no more than a retaliation campaign for ActBlue’s political activities supporting Paxton’s opponent in the 2026 U.S. Senate race.
Stearns issued a preliminary injunction preventing Paxton from pursuing the Texas case. The judge found the lawsuit attempted to undermine protected political speech and therefore violated the First Amendment.
“The truth is plain and captured in Paxton’s own declarations: The lawsuit was filed in retaliation for (and in an attempt to suppress) ActBlue’s efforts to fund Talarico’s campaign,” Stearns wrote in the ruling.
Neither Paxton’s office nor ActBlue immediately returned a request for comment.
Paxton filed the initial lawsuit in April in Texas state court as he campaigned as the Republican nominee for the U.S. Senate seat.
The suit singled out ActBlue, a Massachusetts-based fundraising platform that claims to have raised billions for Democratic candidates and causes since its founding in 2004. It sought civil penalties and an order blocking ActBlue from accepting certain gift card donations.
The Texas attorney general alleged that ActBlue employed deceptive practices after the fundraising platform resumed gift card and foreign prepaid debit card donations after informing Congress that it had ceased conducting the transactions. Paxton alleged the practices could empower foreign nationals to hide their identities while making political contributions, potentially in violation of state law.
The action mirrors wider Republican-led scrutiny of online fundraising platforms, which has included directives from the Trump administration to the Justice Department.
ActBlue responded with its own federal lawsuit filed in Boston in May. The platform contended that Paxton’s investigation and state court lawsuit amounted to unconstitutional retaliation designed to punish it for supporting Democratic candidates, namely Democrat James Talarico, Paxton’s opponent in the Texas Senate contest. ActBlue requested the court declare the actions violations of the First and Fourteenth Amendments and to block them.
Stearns ruled on behalf of ActBlue on the preliminary request, criticizing what he said was Paxton’s history of filing retaliatory lawsuits. The injunction bars Paxton from advancing the state case.
ActBlue’s operations have received increased scrutiny lately. The platform’s CEO, Regina Wallace-Jones, appeared before a House Administration Committee hearing as panel Republicans questioned the organization’s processes for screening foreign contributions and more. Wallace-Jones invoked her Fifth Amendment right during the session. She wrote in an opinion article published in The Washington Post on the same day that she would do so “against self-incrimination.”
ActBlue has long been the primary vehicle for small-dollar donations to Democratic candidates and progressive organizations.
Thursday’s ruling allows ActBlue to continue operations while the related claims work their way through the legal system.
Tyler Durden Fri, 06/12/2026 - 09:10