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Kalshi, Polymarket Among 27 Prediction Platforms Banned In Brazil

Authored by Amin Haqshanas via CoinTelegraph.com,

Brazilian authorities have moved to shut down 27 prediction market platforms, including Kalshi and Polymarket.

The decision, announced Friday, follows a directive from the Ministry of Finance and enforcement by the National Telecommunications Agency (Anatel), according to state-owned news outlet Agência Brasil. Authorities claimed that such services fall outside Brazil’s current legal framework and therefore operate illegally.

“We have been monitoring the evolution of this sector in Brazil, which suffered a period of anarchy because there were no rules, no oversight, from 2018 to 2022,” Finance Ministry executive secretary Dario Durigan reportedly said during a press conference at the Palácio do Planalto.

The crackdown follows Resolution 5.298 issued by Brazil’s National Monetary Council (CMN) on Friday, which takes effect in early May and sharply limits what prediction market platforms can offer. Under the new rules, contracts tied to sports, politics, entertainment, or social events are banned, as authorities consider them closer to gambling than financial investments.

Only contracts linked to economic indicators, such as inflation, interest rates, exchange rates, or commodity prices, will remain allowed and fall under financial market oversight.

Brazil flags prediction platforms as debt risk

Durigan claimed that prediction markets could deepen household debt and expose users to financial harm. “At a time when we are working to reduce debt levels among families, small businesses, and students, we must also prevent new forms of harmful indebtedness,” he said.

The blocked platforms include a mix of international and Brazil-focused services, with major names including Kalshi, Polymarket, PredictIt, Robinhood (via its forecasting feature) and Fanatics Markets.

Banned prediction markets in Brazil. Source: Agência Brasil

Other affected platforms include ProphetX, Hedgehog Markets, Novig, Polyswipe, PRED Exchange and Stride, alongside several Brazil-focused services such as Palpita, Cravei, Previsao, and MercadoPred.

More countries ban prediction markets

A growing number of jurisdictions have moved to ban prediction markets, often folding them into gambling or financial regulations. Several European nations, including France, Belgium and the Netherlands, have blocked or penalized platforms operating without authorization.

In the United States, the situation is more fragmented, with an ongoing tug-of-war between federal regulators and individual states over prediction markets.

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/27/2026 - 13:25

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5Y Auction Tails Despite Jump In Foreign Demand, Yields Hit Session High

After a mediocre 2Y auction to start the week's coupon issuance this morning, moments ago the Treasury sold 5Y notes in another average auction.

The sale of $70BN in 5 Year paper stopped at a high yield of 3.955%, down fractionally from 3.980% last month, and tailing the When Issued 3.950% by 0.5bps. This was an improvement from last month's 1.4bps tail, but more concerningly this was the 11th tail in a row for 5Y issues.

The bid to cover was also on the muted side, at 2.330, up from 2.287, it was below the six-auction average of 2.348. 

The internals improved notably, however, with Indirects awarded 72.3%, above last month's 61.9% and also well above the recent average of 62.1%. In fact this was the highest award for foreign buyers since May 2025. And with Directs dropping to 15.03%, Dealers were left with just 12.7%, the lowest since January.

Overall, this was a stronger auction than this morning's 2Y sale thanks to the surge in foreign buyers, which probably offset concerns about the 11th tail in a row. Even so, 10Y yields have pushed to session highs, rising above 4.34% although that's due to the continued rise in oil which remains the only thing that the bond market is focused on for now.

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