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Brave New Autonomous World Takes Shape On America's Highways
Wall Street remains hyper-focused on whether the hyperscalers' AI-driven data center buildout, now approaching $700 billion and roughly 10 times 2020 levels, will ultimately generate enough returns to justify the massive spending boom.
Goldman analysts, led by Mark Delaney, focused on the "impact of AI on profit pools" and, more specifically, on the incremental profit AI-enabled initiatives in the transportation space could ultimately generate.
The good news is that nearly a year after Delaney's June 2025 note to clients, his team found that the "pace of autonomous technology commercialization has accelerateProfits of Autonomous Mobility," driven largely by expanding vehicle deployments in the U.S. and China, as well as rollouts in Europe.
"These deployments are enabled by both captive technology development (e.g. at Waymo, Tesla, Pony AI, etc.) and a growing set of merchant Physical AI tools, including from companies such as Nvidia (e.g. Alpamayo)," Delaney said.
The autonomous ecosystem
Potential global autonomy ecosystem market size in 2035
Delaney's new estimate for the U.S. robotaxi market is set to top $19 billion by 2030, up from a prior $7 billion forecast, and continue rising to $48 billion by 2035.
How the analyst's forecast shifted in just one year:
His team expects the global robotaxi market could reach $415 billion by 2035, with vertically integrated operators potentially generating gross margins of 30% to 50% and approximately $150 billion in gross profit by 20235.
Even though the rollout of AVs will unfold over a decade rather than all at once, the analyst still warned that the proliferation of these robotaxis will be highly disruptive to "existing markets in the long term."
Delaney offered color on the incoming disruption, and it is something Uber and Lyft drivers should be paying close attention to, because over the coming years, their livelihoods could increasingly come under pressure as consumers gravitate toward cheaper rides from robotaxis.
In a worst-case scenario, taxi medallion holders and others will likely become increasingly infuriated by the emergence of these robotaxis.
Here's more from the analyst about the disruption:
While a portion of AV volumes will likely be incremental demand (e.g. as new use cases become affordable or possible), we believe autonomy could also disrupt existing markets in the long-term. We frame risks and scenarios including to human-operated rideshare/taxis, trucking, and light vehicle unit sales in the United States in this report. We estimate the economic size that could potentially be disrupted in the US is ~$440 bn. This is comprised of wages for taxi/chauffeur/shuttle, delivery and truck drivers per BLS data, an estimate for the share of bookings from rideshare allocated to drivers, and how much auto sales could decline in a scenario where personal transport demand is served only by AV rideshare.
There are already signs of change, with Waymo's share in SF reaching 30%, 20 months after being fully launched (per Yipit), and our base case view is for 5% cannibalization of UCAN rideshare gross bookings from AVs (and 16% in a bear case) by 2030.
Here are the current robotaxi deployments across America:
Google searches already show consumer interest.
AV profitability is improving:
Profitability surges in 2030s
The proliferation of AVs will not just be limited to robotaxis. Delaney expects the last-mile delivery bot market to explode in the early 2030s.
Beyond AVs, Delaney expects penetration rates for vehicles with autonomous capabilities to begin to soar worldwide by the early 2030s.
In addition to robotaxis, Delaney expects autonomous trucking to become another major profit pool, forecasting the U.S. Class 8 AV trucking market at $16 billion by 2030 and $105 billion by 2035, with the global market reaching about $560 billion in 2035. Gross profit from AV trucking could top $135 billion in 2035 and around $300 billion cumulatively over the next decade.
He noted that AV trucking companies across North America, including Aurora, Kodiak, Waabi, and Plus, are set to rapidly expand their fleets in the coming years.
AV trucking costs per mile are set to collapse by the end of the decade and remain range-bound around the $2-per-mile mark by the midpoint of the next decade.
Profitability for AV trucking will be a story in several years.
"Overall, we expect these improving cost dynamics and scaling up of the AV trucking fleet to drive an increase in the global gross profit pool for AV trucking from close to zero in 2025 to ~$135 bn in 2035," the analyst noted.
What's clear is that America's highways, as well as those in many other developed countries, are set to be flooded by AVs. Fleets are already operating, but real scaling begins next year. This will disrupt workers ranging from taxi drivers to delivery drivers and even truckers.
In equities, Goldman highlighted Alphabet, Tesla, Uber, Aurora, Amazon, Pony.ai, Rivian, Mobileye, Lyft, TE Connectivity, Hesai, XPeng, and Volvo Group as beneficiaries of AV deployment.
There's a lot more in the Goldman note titled "Analyzing the Impact of AI on Profit Pools - Part II - A Transportation Case Study." Professional subscribers can read the full note here at our new Marketdesk.ai portal.
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"Depraved Evil": Gay Couple Mocks Baby's Cry For 'Mama' In Viral Surrogacy Video
Authored by Steve Watson via modernity.news,
Two gay men in Nashville recorded themselves taunting the baby they obtained through surrogacy as he cried desperately for his mother. The now viral clip has ignited fury across X.
The clip opens with one man asking the infant, “Who do you want, Dada or Pop?” The baby responds, “Mama.” The man replies, “No, there is no mama,” and the baby cries.
Two gay men in Nashville are sparking nationwide outrage after recording a video of themselves mocking the baby they had via surrogacy as it cries for its mother for content.
Man: “Who do you want, Dada or Pop?”
Baby: “Mama”
Man: “No, there is no mama.”
Baby: cries pic.twitter.com/ym3ujfdS0Q
Podcaster Tim Pool reacted “This is fucking depraved evil my god.”
This is fucking depraved evil my god https://t.co/gHwBs71iPE
— Tim Pool (@Timcast) April 16, 2026The moment exposes the raw cruelty baked into certain surrogacy arrangements: a child biologically wired to seek his mother is denied her existence while adults film his pain for likes.
The evil one moves his thumbs up to the upper part of the sternum, and positions the baby for painful stimuli, because a baby wasn’t giving him the right answer. Just watch. pic.twitter.com/P1sVvltLBi
— Jesus Sotelo Jr. (@JesusSoteloJr44) April 17, 2026As if that wasn’t bad enough, the man left the following responses to sick comments on the video:
Gay couple shared footage of their infant son repeatedly calling out for “Mama" and began crying.
One online commenter jokingly suggested, “Throw it away and start over.”
Commenter: "Throw it away and start over."
Shane McAnally: "😂😂😂"pic.twitter.com/jD4rSaIGkI
No mainstream outlet has rushed to cover it yet, but the clip has racked up millions of views and replies laced with raw disgust.
When the baby answered wrong. He would dig his thumbs into the baby’s chest. Painful stimuli is often used to train mammals. This person is evils for sure. pic.twitter.com/rkkt2lfs6m
— Jesus Sotelo Jr. (@JesusSoteloJr44) April 17, 2026Babies need the physical touch of their mother. This shit just pisses me off.
— Mr. Idaho (@IDSurvivalPrep) April 17, 2026ABSOLUTELY SICKENING. Nashville gay surrogacy couple films their crying baby screaming “MAMA!” — then laughs in her face: “There is NO mama!”
Deliberately breaking an innocent infant’s heart for social media clout.
This is demonic child abuse. Denying a baby her mother is pure… pic.twitter.com/qVVc9xTCWL
A gay couple films their baby via surrogacy crying out for “Mama,” only to laugh and tell the child: “There is no mama.”
The toddler breaks down in tears while they mock the very longing every child instinctively feels for a mother.
This isn’t parenting — it’s cruelty… https://t.co/Xn7Bq2JsHv
The post continues : “…dressed up as content. Deliberately depriving a child of a mother, then laughing at their pain for likes? Children aren’t accessories or props for adult validation. They deserve a mom and a dad, not to be bought and emotionally tormented to prove a point. My heart aches for this little boy. How is this normalized? How is surrogacy that severs a child from their biological mother still legal? We’re failing our kids. Protect children first — always.”
These reactions represent just a fraction of the firestorm. The clip has exposed how surrogacy can reduce a living child to a prop for adult validation.
The story first broke wide via independent reporting that identified the Nashville couple as country music songwriter Shane McAnally and his husband Michael Baum, who shared the video on Instagram. McAnally had previously told People magazine he pursued surrogacy despite his age because “rules” do not apply to their “non-traditional family.” The pair already has adopted twins.
This is their third surrogacy pic.twitter.com/ATvM0pBckP
— CocoB (@Coco_B_7) April 17, 2026Critics have long warned that commercial surrogacy treats children as commodities and severs the maternal bond children instinctively crave. The baby’s cry for “Mama” shattered any illusion that two dads can simply substitute. The video arrives amid growing pushback against unchecked surrogacy practices that prioritize adult desires over child welfare.
This is the logical endpoint of a culture that celebrates “families” built on contracts rather than biology and dismisses the mother’s irreplaceable role as outdated bigotry. Leftist media and activists who champion these arrangements remain silent while everyday Americans see the footage and feel visceral revulsion.
The surrogacy industry markets babies as customizable accessories. When the product cries for the one person it was denied, the response is laughter and a camera. That is not progress. It is a betrayal of the most vulnerable.
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Xi Jinping Refocuses On Taiwan With Renewed Political Outreach
China hosted a high-profile meeting between Xi Jinping and a senior Taiwanese opposition figure from the Kuomintang (KMT), marking a notable resumption of party-to-party engagement after years of limited direct contact, according to Nikkei Asia.
The meeting was tightly choreographed, featuring an extended handshake, formal seating arrangements, and controlled media coverage. These elements were designed to convey parity and legitimacy, signaling that Beijing views engagement with Taiwan’s opposition as politically substantive.
The KMT has historically supported closer economic and political ties with mainland China under the framework of the “1992 Consensus,” which Beijing interprets as acknowledgment of “one China.” This has allowed the party to maintain communication channels with Chinese officials even when official cross-strait dialogue has broken down.
By contrast, Beijing has suspended most formal contact with Taiwan’s current government under Lai Ching-te of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP). Chinese authorities characterize the DPP as promoting policies that move Taiwan further from eventual unification.
China continues to assert sovereignty over Taiwan and has increased pressure through military activity, including air and naval operations near the island, alongside diplomatic isolation efforts aimed at limiting Taiwan’s international space.
Within this context, the meeting reflects a broader recalibration in Xi’s Taiwan strategy. In addition to sustained military signaling, Beijing appears to be reinvesting in political engagement as a complementary tool.
Nikkei writes that outreach to the KMT provides Beijing with an avenue to influence Taiwan’s internal political discourse. It enables China to highlight divisions between major parties and to frame engagement with the mainland as both feasible and beneficial.
This approach may also be intended to shape public opinion in Taiwan, particularly by emphasizing economic cooperation and stability in contrast to the tensions associated with strained cross-strait relations under the current administration.
The timing of the meeting suggests a coordinated effort to increase Beijing’s visibility in Taiwan-related developments, with Xi taking a more direct role in signaling priorities and setting the tone for engagement.
Overall, the development indicates that Xi is refocusing attention on Taiwan, combining political outreach with ongoing military and diplomatic pressure to influence the island’s political trajectory and cross-strait relations.
Tyler Durden Fri, 04/17/2026 - 20:30