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Oil Tumbles On Iran Deal Buzz As Rubio Still Insists 'Denuclearization' Is The 'Ultimate' Goal Summary

• Rubio: The "ultimate deal" is the denuclearization of Iran, while Omani talks focus on reopening Hormuz.
• Stalemate persists: Iran refuses nuclear negotiations until the conflict ends, leaving both sides far apart.
• Deal optimism sees oil slide: Brent fell below $80 on reports of progress in Oman-mediated Hormuz talks.
• Bessent claims a Hormuz agreement could come "today or tomorrow".
• Major doubts remain given Iran denies formal talks, security risks persist and the reported Oman plan could leave Tehran with broad control over Hormuz traffic.

//--> //--> //--> US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?
Yes 81% · No 19%
View full market & trade on Polymarket

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Rubio: "Denuclearization of Iran" is the "Ultimate Deal"

Secretary of State Marco Rubio spoke at the White House Tuesday, just after headlines out of Qatar touting that a new draft deal initiative is gaining momentum.

Rubio insisted again that Strait of Hormuz remains open and that vessels are continuing to pass through it, but said the US is working to open it up to bigger vessel transit flows.

"I think there is a conversation and a negotiation that we are involved in between Iran and Oman on how more ships can be able to go through there safely in the short term, as we move towards… longer-term talks about denuclearization," said Rubio. He then emphasized that that the "denuclearization of Iran" is the "ultimate deal".

But from Tehran's point of view, this will constitute Washington shifting the goalposts back to square one once again. Iran has insisted it will not negotiate the end of its nuclear program, especially while the conflict is still in an active phrase. It has consistently said that nuclear talks can happen later, only once an agreement to end the war has been accomplished. The two sides continue to be far apart, despite the Tuesday morning onslaught of 'Hormuz deal imminent' headlines. 

Images from Al Arabiya show smoke rising from a ship hit by a projectile near the Strait of Hormuz

صور حصرية للعربية تظهر تصاعد الدخان من سفينة أصيبت بمقذوف قرب مضيق هرمز pic.twitter.com/pSOfYpS8k8

— العربية عاجل (@AlArabiya_Brk) August 4, 2026

PressTV, however, has said that Iran-Oman talks on opening Hormuz are in a "new phase" - and despite what it calls "US obstruction" - but so far it appears this management scheme will be favorable to Iran's demands. And yet there's still some signs of compromise on the horizon:

IRAN WEIGHS ALLOWING EUROPE TO CLEAR MINES IN STRAIT OF HORMUZ

Here's where things stand on the Iran-Oman talks for Hormuz management, which would leave Iran in a favored position, and maintaining an immense amount of leverage over the waterway:

• Iran controls vessel entry, Oman exit: RTRS
• Iran has ability to intervene in waterway
• Potential service fee, revenue split: NYT
• The U.S. and regional governments rejected Iran's demand to collect fees and instead demanded guarantees that Iran's proxies will not attack or threaten their territory, according to a senior official - WSJ

“Over the next two and a half years” pic.twitter.com/x6e8GychXb

— Justin Logan (@JustinTLogan) May 30, 2026 Oil Slides amid return to Another Round of 'Deal Imminent' Headlines

Another fake ceasefire in progress? Or are we to believe it's for real this time? There's nothing on the ground-level at all that currently suggests the warring sides are imminently about to agree to a new ceasefire, or are so much as back at the negotiating table.

And yet Tuesday morning headlines are now being driven by a Qatari Foreign Ministry statement saying that "language" for a possible US-Iran resolution "has been drafted" and "is being circulated between the parties."

via Doha News

Ministry spokesman Majed Al-Ansari didn't offer any time line for a potential deal in relaying the statement before a press briefing but said that current diplomatic efforts are focused on preventing further escalation, reopening the Strait of Hormuz and creating conditions to resume talks.

He described that the focus is on short term resolution that would restart US-Iran talks and return the sides to mediation, but also admitted that there's "nothing the the books when it comes to direct talks." This comes as President Trump has told Iran that he wants to see a deal done on the Hormuz Strait immediately, per Bloomberg.

This was enough for regional media, including Israel's i24 to report 'progress' in the Omani mediated Hormuz talks, with the American side - as yet only participating indirectly - said to be "much more" flexible in their demands than even the Omani side, amid Iranian recalcitrance.

"Iran has conveyed a message: any solution that we agree to and sign must also be approved by Washington," i24 has written. This somewhat forced and perhaps manufactured return yet again to peace optimism has sent oil sliding...

BRENT CRUDE OIL FALLS BELOW $80 FOR FIRST TIME SINCE MID JULY

The day prior, President Trump continued to address Tehran in threatening language, however. He said before reporters in the Oval Office: "I want to give them every last chance before decapitation. Very tough to do what what we have planned, still planned. We'll see what happens, but it's very very tough thing to do. I think I'm very proud of the fact that I will give people a chance."

Bessent Floats Maybe 'Iran Deal Tomorrow' To Open Hormuz

Just on the heels of the above 'draft deal' headlines, and in a carefully timed CNBC appearance, Washington brought out its heavy hitter to re-anchor the administration's narrative, seeking to assure markets that a diplomatic deal with Tehran is not only real, but imminent - potentially coming together even as soon as Tuesday through Wednesday.

"We may have an Iran deal tomorrow to open Hormuz," Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent declared, signaling that a major diplomatic resolution is within reach. He pointed out that physical maritime traffic is already quietly resuming, regardless of headline volatility.

Bessent gets dragged in to justify "imminent Iran deal" as algos no longer reacting to $100,000 Truth Social API

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) August 4, 2026

Bessent claimed the administration is seeing "quite a few ships coming out of Hormuz, even now," suggesting the chokehold is loosening ahead of an actual deal and formal signature. With physical crude flows expected to resume, Bessent predicted that elevated energy prices will soon settle down, paving the way for a massive "relief trade" across broader markets:

"We are in talks with the Iranians, and I think there is a chance we may have a deal today or tomorrow to open the Strait and move towards a more normalized position in this conflict,” Bessent said in an interview with CNBC.

Asked if Tehran would be allowed to charge a toll, Bessent said the deal would allow freedom of movement in the strait.

"It would be freedom of movement," he said. "Even though things are still a little dicey there over the past few days, we saw quite a few ships coming out even now.”

Of course, we've heard all of this before, and notably Bessent's commentary came just after Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian insisted that while Tehran would defend its borders, it does not seek to expand the war, according to state media. An advisor to the Supreme Leader also reiterated that if the blockade continues, US vessels and forces will face serious risks and casualties. And there's this not so small hiccup in the strait emerging Tuesday:

• A vessel has been struck in the Strait of Hormuz near Oman, the UK maritime security firm Vanguard says. One crew member is missing.

🔺 Senior Iranian figure warns US forces will “face serious risks and casualties” if the Hormuz blockade continues

Mohsen Rezaei, senior military advisor to the Supreme Leader and former longtime commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), warned that US vessels… https://t.co/Oozl8C5sLw

— Drop Site (@DropSiteNews) August 4, 2026 Oman Hormuz Blueprint Would Leave Iran Largely With Control

Looming large over all of this is the fact that the Iranians have still denied that they are in formal talks with Washington, which Trump the day prior described as a ruse, venting his frustration while insisting that the Iranians have been engaging. The Hormuz blueprint as it basically stands:

Reuters: Iran would gain full control over vessels entering the Strait of Hormuz under a temporary plan being discussed with Oman, an Iranian official says.

Outbound vessels would use the route between Iran and Oman, with Oman approving their exit only after notifying Tehran. The plan would give Iran full visibility over outbound traffic and the ability to intervene if needed and Iran is unlikely to accept any other proposal to open the strait

The Bessent clip:

Bessent on Iran:

We've seen Trump, last week, threaten what would have been the largest military campaign since World War II against the Iranians, and now, because of that, we are in talks with the Iranians.

I think there's a chance we may have a deal today or tomorrow to open… pic.twitter.com/mnel0A16O0

— Clash Report (@clashreport) August 4, 2026

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Amid the sudden and dubious return to 'optimism', let's recount how we got here...

Trump's Iran Strike Threats: A Timeline

March 21: Trump threatened to "hit and obliterate" Iranian power plants unless Hormuz reopened within 48 hours.

March 23: Delayed strikes for five days, citing "productive conversations" with Iran.

April 7: Warned "a whole civilization will die tonight."
Hours later: A two-week ceasefire was announced.

April 21: Said he expected "to be bombing" if talks failed.
Later that day: Extended the ceasefire.

May 17: Warned, "the Clock is Ticking."

May 18: Paused planned strikes after requests from Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE.

June 11: Said the U.S. would hit Iran "VERY HARD TONIGHT."
Hours later: Canceled the operation, saying a deal was near.

August 1: Said the U.S. was "locked and loaded."
Later: Called off the attack to pursue a deal with Tehran.

Tyler Durden Tue, 08/04/2026 - 20:15

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From Jason Sudeikis to Hannah Waddingham, see all the stars here.

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The New McCarthys: 40% Of Professors Against Hiring A Trump-Voter

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

According to a new survey, roughly 40 percent of college faculty would “oppose hiring a Trump supporter.” The results of the study are not surprising to many in the field of teaching. Indeed, it may be low given faculty reluctance to admit political bias or the delusion of others that they are without it. Yet, the virtual purging of Republicans from most departments reveals a long-standing ideological exclusion in higher education.

While far-left hires are common, even a moderate Republican is a rarity on faculties in a country with a majority of conservative and libertarian voters.

Even assuming that many faculty members will not expressly acknowledge their bias, this forty percent is willing to state that they will vote against candidates based on their political views without any consideration of the intellectual content of their scholarship.

In my book, “The Indispensable Right: Free Speech in an Age of Rage,” I discuss these arguments to justify the current levels of intolerance and orthodoxy in higher education.

I had dinner with a Harvard Law Professor, who expressed disbelief that I expected him to vote for any faculty applicants who held views he considered wrong. When I noted that I regularly vote for faculty candidates who hold opposing views, he just shrugged and said that, if he rejects their views, he cannot vote for those views to be taught to students.

There are few remaining conservatives or libertarians on law school faculties, which have been purged of dissenting voices through a biased hiring and promotion system. Despite years of complaints and declining public trust in higher education, faculty members continue to reinforce bias and orthodoxy in our schools.

I wrote about the rise of this new McCarthyism on the left seven years ago.

Recently, I discussed the example of Fordham University School of Law professor John Pfaff, who called for “repercussions” for professors who do not “recant” their view that the 14th Amendment does not protect birthright citizenship.

Tolerance is intolerable for professors like Pfaff. After the decision in Trump v. Barbara, Professor Pfaff went on BlueSky to vent against anyone who dared to voice a dissenting view in academia, calling such faculty “parasites” that have to be effectively stomped out of higher education. In his post, Pfaff declared:

“There MUST be repercussions for the lawprofs who advanced such untenable arguments. Their behavior is — and I mean this literally, not dehumanizingly — parasitic.

They exploit norms of collegiality and presumptions of integrity to advance trash. Which undermines the work of ALL of us.”

His rationale for punishing opposing viewpoints is an insight into the arguments used against intellectual diversity and institutional neutrality in higher education.

I recently participated in a debate with the President of the American Association of University Professors (AAUP), who opposed the principles of institutional neutrality.

Some sites, such as Above the Law, have supported the exclusion of conservative faculty.  Senior Editor Joe Patrice defended “predominantly liberal faculties” by arguing that hiring a conservative law professor is akin to allowing a believer in geocentrism to teach at a university.

Not long ago, I debated Professor Randall Kennedy at Harvard Law School about the lack of ideological diversity at the school. I respect Kennedy, and I do not view him as anti-free speech or intolerant. Yet when I noted the statistics on the vanishing number of conservative students and faculty in comparison to the nation, Kennedy responded that Harvard “is an elite university” and does not have to “look like America.”

Of course, the problem is that Harvard does not even look like Massachusetts, which is nearly 30 percent Republican.

At Yale, the faculty achieved a type of academic nirvana in reaching a point where not a single faculty member gave to a Republican candidate.

When pressed, faculty members often claim that they cannot find credible or competent conservatives. During my debate with Professor Kennedy, I noted that, if a university made such a claim to explain the virtual absence of minority professors, a judge would laugh them out of court. The virtual absence of conservative or Republican faculty in most departments shows a deep and unrelenting bias.

There is little self-reflection on the left in considering the historical or cultural implications of such bias. While often alluding to the McCarthy period in criticizing the right, professors rarely acknowledge their own effective black list against conservatives and certain Trump supporters. Few conservative applicants today would risk admitting to being Trump supporters in interviews.

The intolerance in higher education will not change because it is a cultural touchstone for faculty. Professors prove their bona fides with intolerant statements in meetings and even in classes. I heard from closet conservative students at Harvard how faculty routinely used their classes to rail against Trump and Republicans. They sit like a silent captive audience.

Surveys show that this intolerance has produced widespread self-censuring by students, particularly conservative students.

Some 49 percent of Republican students report self-censoring on three or more topics. Independents are the second most likely at 40 percent. Some 38 percent of Democrats admit to self-censoring.

Sixty percent of college students strongly or somewhat agree that “[t]he climate at my school or on my campus prevents some people from saying things they believe, because others might find it offensive.”

That is the environment of intolerance created and maintained by this generation of administrators and faculty. It will not change until donors stop giving money to schools without greater balance and intellectual diversity.

Tyler Durden Tue, 08/04/2026 - 20:05

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"It Could Be Tomorrow": California's Top Earthquake Expert Sounds Alarm On "The Big One"

A new peer-reviewed study found that the fault system running beneath Los Angeles and the Inland Empire is carrying more stress today than at any point in the last millennium, and that a single rupture could tear across both the San Andreas and San Jacinto faults at once.

The research, led by Dr. Liliane Burkhard of the University of Bern and published in the Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, simulated 1,000 years of earthquake cycles on the southern San Andreas and San Jacinto systems.

The flashpoint is Cajon Pass, the junction northeast of Los Angeles where the two systems meet, and where Interstate 15, freight rail lines, power corridors and the aqueducts that supply Southern California's water all cross.

The model puts Coulomb stress at 3.6 megapascals on the San Jacinto-Bernardino segment, the highest value anywhere in the entire 1,000-year reconstruction, and 2.8 megapascals on the San Andreas Mojave South segment. Both are elevated, and both are closely aligned, the same configuration that preceded joint ruptures in the past.

Researchers caution these are modeled values that depend on the simulation's assumptions, not direct measurements from underground. Burkhard's team describes Cajon Pass as an "earthquake gate," a junction that can either stop a rupture cold or let it through.

The 1857 Fort Tejon earthquake, magnitude roughly 7.9, stopped there, while the 1812 Wrightwood event is believed to have crossed both faults. A through-going rupture today, the study claimed, could reach magnitude 7.4 to 7.8. More than 160 years of slip has piled up since 1857. Caltech seismologist Lucy Jones, who helped build the widely cited magnitude-7.8 "ShakeOut" scenario, said the San Andreas is California's longest fault and therefore capable of its largest earthquakes.

The chilling scenario projects nearly two minutes of shaking, more than 1,800 deaths, 50,000 injuries and over $200 billion in damage. "It could go another 100 years. It could be tomorrow," Jones said in an interview with ABC7.

A 2008 USGS forecast put the 30-year odds of a magnitude-6.7 or larger quake on the southern San Andreas at 59 percent, the highest of any fault in the state. Burkhard stopped short of forecasting a date, telling Newsweek that while this does not mean an earthquake will happen tomorrow, "the system is as loaded as it has ever been in our record, and the question is not really if but when."

Tyler Durden Tue, 08/04/2026 - 19:40

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