Aggregator
Call of Duty's Activision to make next Halo game as Xbox cuts more jobs
McDonald’s unveils international menu featuring fan-favorites from around the world — but there’s a catch
Crushing poll deals massive blow for Gavin Newsom and Kamala Harris’ presidential ambitions
Bunnie Xo, 46, defends age-gap romance with Dylan Wolf, 24, after Jelly Roll divorce
Bunnie Xo, 46, defends age-gap romance with Dylan Wolf, 24, after Jelly Roll divorce
Putin Urges Immediate Yemen Ceasefire In Call With Saudi Crown Prince
Russian President Vladimir Putin held a Monday telephone conversation with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (who is also the prime minister) - wherein the two leaders focused on broad bilateral issues.
Referring to the "Saudi National Day", a TASS readout indicates "The Russian leader congratulated the Saudi Crown Prince on the upcoming national holiday - the day marking the founding of Saudi Arabia - noting that a century ago, the Soviet Union was the first foreign nation to recognize the Saudi Kingdom."
Aside from the usual boilerplate expressing satisfaction on the bilateral relationship on multiple fronts, the two addressed the ongoing crisis in the Middle East, where the Iran conflict has spilled over into Yemen this month.
Per the readout, MbS and Putin agreed that that there is "no alternative to political and diplomatic efforts aimed at normalizing the current crisis, while duly taking into account the interests of all parties."
Putin urged every effort to achieve a ceasefire, and to avoid escalation:
"In light of the deteriorating military-political situation in Yemen, the need for an immediate cessation of hostilities and the creation of conditions for launching a constructive intra-Yemeni dialogue under UN auspices was reaffirmed. At the same time, the importance of ensuring the safe and unhindered passage of vessels through international waterways in the region - including the Strait of Bab al-Mandeb Strait and Strait of Hormuz - was emphasized," the Kremlin said.
Moscow and Riyadh agreed continue communication at various levels, and work on stability in the region.
While Russia is not involved in the Yemen conflict, it does provide military supplies and conducts trade with Tehran, and so may have some leverage in terms of pushing the Islamic Republic to get the Shia Houthis to the peace table.
The Yemen conflict could yet spiral into something more serious, and could draw in especially the Pakistanis after Riyadh and Islamabad inked the Mecca Defense Pact this summer.
Earlier this month: Saudi Arabia is learning a lesson that money and American weapons could never erase: you cannot buy your way out of geography.
This week, the Houthis expressed openness to a comprehensive ceasefire deal, but have also emphasized that the Saudi siege of Houthi-controlled areas must halt for this to be a possibility. The Yemen war and threat to Saudi oil infrastructure has only served to increase Iran's leverage over global energy, amid the ongoing Strait of Hormuz crisis and standoff with US forces.
Tyler Durden Tue, 09/22/2026 - 10:45Ex-ABC correspondent Terry Moran says he raised Biden health concerns — and got ‘shut down very hard’
Netanyahu threatens to expose Mamdani at UN in feisty video message: ‘I’m going to tell the truth about you’
Colts signing Darius Slayton in Daniel Jones reunion after Giants release
Martha Stewart told us this new serum ‘genuinely transformed’ her lips
Martha Stewart told us this new serum ‘genuinely transformed’ her lips
Gas station workers overpower armed robber in wild Brazil attack
Presley Gerber’s ex-girlfriend Charlotte D’Alessio reflects on their ‘pure love’ in emotional tribute
Presley Gerber’s ex-girlfriend Charlotte D’Alessio reflects on their ‘pure love’ in emotional tribute
New terrifying footage captures massive cargo ship tipping fishing boat off Singapore
"Repeated And Persistent Supply-Side Shocks" Are Here To Stay
By Michael Every of Rabobank
Chicago Fed President Goolsbee just warned the FOMC can’t ignore repeated and persistent supply-side shocks and must respond in a way that will cause economic hardship. However, repeated and persistent supply-side shocks are now the norm, not short-lived, aberrant events.
Putin won the Russian election with a supermajority: fears are escalation is imminent via sabotage in Europe, mobilization, or provocations to NATO. The FT notes a Kremlin-backed forgery scheme moved $6.9bn through global banks, as diplomats blamed France for an EU deal to renew 3,000 Russia sanctions listings lapsing. Trump pressed Zelenskyy to stop hitting Russian refineries, stressing it’s about “diesel, diesel, diesel.” CIA boss Ratcliffe also met with him. Trump additionally announced a “massive” Belarus potash deal to undercut trade with Canada, yet will open two new military bases in Greenland, which Russia will see as a provocation.
Iran, on high alert, threatened to use new weapons vs. new targets if the US escalates. The US says anyone servicing Iranian airlines will be cut off from the dollar system from tomorrow. Gulf states are urging a reset with Iran yet are elsewhere reported to be planning joint military action with the US and Israel. The Houthis are pushing for control of Yemen’s highlands as Trump is said to have called off strikes, likely to keep pressure on the Saudis to join a bigger push. The UK is offering to help the Saudis via air-to-air refuelling, which isn’t much direct help even if it places the UK on the Houthis hit list: PM Burnham has made longer public statements on how to refuel via a cup of tea than on this issue. The EU’s Kallas and Italy urged the EU to reinforce its Red Sea Aspides naval force, as nearby seven Ethiopian rebel groups formed a new anti-government alliance, worsening the geopolitical picture further.
Despite two more tankers being hit, oil is flowing from Hormuz, expensively, and refined products aren’t, making them even more expensive. With VLCC oil tanker daily rates top $1.2m vs. a normal $40,000 - $100,000 and order books are constrained by global shipyard capacity, commodity trader Trafigura just launched a new ocean carrier of its own, Volare Shipping. The US is proposing a $5bn kickstart fund to rebuild Gulf energy sites, but the war must be won first; and global oil and gas discoveries have just hit a 40-year low on investment cutbacks.
Germany announced limited fuel price caps and fuel-tax suspensions, France is pushing for similar emergency action on energy prices, and US Republicans are calling to halt diesel exports. The latter wouldn’t be a lasting solution to higher US prices if markets operate freely in an integrated global system, but a hypothetical invocation of the Defence Production Act to ‘manage’ refineries and a geopolitical closed-loop trading bloc could work such that some have much lower energy prices, others much higher ones.
At which point, consider if we are seeing global bifurcation into blocs, why should the energy sector operate as a ‘one world’ system? Why wouldn’t it be bifurcated to benefit those with energy vs. those without? “Because markets?” Why? “Because war?” Those without energy surrender, not fight. Also note if one holds the Americas’ and Middle East’s oil production and refining, one effectively controls oil; and if one holds the Americas’ and the Middle East’s are on fire, then in *relative* terms, the Americas are winners… and many others are the losers.
Meanwhile, the US coast guard is watching a Chinese marine presence off Alaska, as the US, Japan and South Korea launched joint economic-security talks before the Trump-Xi summit.
Ahead of it, Chinese rare-earth shipments have dropped 20% month-on-month, showing Chinese leverage. Yet USTR Greer suggested the US could support a bilateral trade truce extension of just 3-6 months rather than the end-of-Trump term China wants. That suggests the US has cards to play ahead. Vietnam is also saying a US trade deal is close and denied it is a transhipment hub for Chinese goods. Watch that space closely.
Despite the headlines, perhaps pay less attention to Canada extending an easy-to-say-hard-to-deliver ‘unique relationship’ offer from the EU to the UK,… and to Brazil and Kenya. That’s likely to prove emotionally appealing, realpolitik-naïve middle-power gobbledy-‘BEUKCUK’. Indeed, Mexico is close to agreeing to buy more US goods and fewer from other countries under a new USMCA. That weakens Canada’s negotiating position along with the US-Greenland security deal and the one for Belarussian potash.
Against that bifurcating backdrop, the ECB rolled out a digital euro in wholesale financial markets via its new Pontes (“bridge”) scheme for banks. This new pipe in Eurozone financial plumbing allows tokenised asset transactions to settle using money issued by the ECB, where private distributed ledger technology platforms can now access the Eurosystem's TARGET services. What is that a bridge towards and what’s the real Pontes? We shall see.
By contrast, after Congress stalled the CLARITY Act, which would have accelerated the global roll-out of US dollar stablecoins, a Strategic Working Office for Rapid Deployment (SWORD) has opened at the International Development Finance Corporation tasked with “high-impact investments that advance US foreign policy, development, and national security priorities.” SWORD might use drops of USD stablecoins to build bridges, or demolish them, in key geopolitical and geoeconomic areas… like the energy sector(?)
So, back to central banks: is it better to make a bad situation worse with higher rates, or watch inflation move further above target? What is a 25bp hike going to do about a VLCC daily rate up 30-40X normal besides impact a housing or corporate loan holder already dealing with the sharp end of that daily rate increase? There is no ‘good’ choice, only bad ones – and in many senses.
Politically, we just saw another German election result where the far-right and far-left trounced the centre, and both populists are on the ascendancy more widely. Chancellor Merz has pledged a “reset” but admitted German conservatives don’t have the “answers.” But who does? The centre was built for a paradigm that arguably no longer exists. More rate hikes, or inflation, into that mix and then what? Australian consumers’ mood is sinking as RBA rates are rising, with another hike whispered for next week as Governor Bullock spoke of a “wild ride” and “limiting indirect effects of supply shocks” today - and the populist One Nation Party’s electoral fortunes are rising with it.
The key point is if the wars vs. Russia and/or Iran were over, energy prices would be lower, so would inflation, and rates could then sustainably follow. Until that happens, it’s hard to make that case. If so, how could the wars end? By the West losing - but the consequences are unacceptable to it. By Russia and Iran losing - but the consequences are even more unacceptable to them. That implies Goolsbee’s “repeated and persistent supply-side shocks” are here to stay, or at least that things will get much worse before they get better.
Then recall central banks were created specifically to finance governments fighting wars. That’s what the Bank of England was set up to do vs. Napoleon, for example. That’s what they also did in WW1 and WW2, and in the US case right up until the Korean War.
The key question is perhaps how long until a central bank recalls another way to deal with persistent geopolitical supply-side shocks is to help its government achieve ‘resilience’ via regaining physical control of supply chains. That’s what most Developed Markets are supposed to have the power to do when Emerging Markets do not. Such action would be a bridge to a huge structural shift; so would a lack of such action “because markets” or due to a lack of power.
Tyler Durden Tue, 09/22/2026 - 10:30