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MSFT Spikes After Leaving CapEx Outlook Unchanged
Update (1800ET): As this evening's conference call went on, we finally got to the meat of the matter as Microsoft kept its CapEx forecast unchanged on Wednesday, ...becoming one of the first hyperscalers to hold the line on the market's insatiable AI spending spree.
Against expectations to spend $190 billion on capital expenditures this calendar year, Microsoft tonight maintained this spending outlook (due to an accounting change, this CapEx guidance is now $175 billion, but, in reality, Microsoft is keeping its AI capex plan the same for this year).
This is a major step for the AI trade. MSFT is up 8% on the comment...
Given the after hours spike, and if it continues, then other hyperscalers may be forced to hold/cut their CapEx as it is clear that investors are willing to give credit to that idea.
And with that the hyperbolic narratives underpinning the entire compute shortage edifice.
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Microsoft walked into tonight's fiscal fourth-quarter earnings report carrying the most bearish positioning it has seen in more than a decade, and it does so on an afternoon when the Fed - now run by a chairman who has made a point of telling markets nothing - triggered significant volatility in stocks and bonds.
The positioning data tells the story first. According to S3 Partners data reported by CNBC, roughly 92 million Microsoft shares are now sold short, or 1.27% of the public float - the highest short interest as a percentage of float since May 2015, and the largest short-interest build anywhere in the Magnificent Seven. More telling than the level is the behavior: S3 says there has been virtually no short covering into the print, which means the bears are not taking profits on a stock that is already down more than 18% year-to-date and, as GeekWire notes, sitting near a one-year low despite consistently beating estimates. They are holding, and they are holding into the report.
The reason is not mysterious to anyone who watched last week.
Alphabet delivered what would once have been a triumphant quarter - revenue up 24%, cloud up 82% - then raised its 2026 capex forecast by roughly $15 billion to as much as $205 billion, and for its trouble watched the stock fall 7% the next day and slip below its prior $4 trillion valuation.
Crucially, the lesson from GOOGL is that the market has stopped rewarding hyperscalers for spending money, which is inconvenient for companies whose entire strategic posture is spending money.
"Alphabet's capex boost increases the odds of similar behavior" from Microsoft and Amazon, Evercore ISI's Mark Mahaney wrote in a client note last week, which is precisely what the shorts are betting on.
And so, with all that in mind, what did MSFT report?
The headline is a strong top-line beat out of the gate:
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Microsoft Q4 Revenue was $90.01 billion, up 18%, and better than the consensus $87.7 billion.
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Q4 diluted earnings per share jumped 23% (on a non-GAAP basis) to $4.74 (but this is not entirely comparable to the $4.25 consensus thanks to $3.2billion gain from their investment in Anthropic and 7c/share loss from OpenAI's investment)
Under the hood, MSFT's cloud unit posted a larger-than-expected increase in sales, suggesting that the company’s computing infrastructure and artificial intelligence services continue to make inroads with businesses.
Azure cloud-computing revenue increased 43% during the fiscal fourth quarter, the company said Wednesday in a statement. That exceeded analysts’ average growth estimate of about 40%.
Nadella highlighted progress on the “cost-to-outcome curve” and noted two major milestones
“We are advancing the frontier on the cost-to-outcome curve, ensuring every customer can turn tokens into business results," said Satya Nadella, chairman and chief executive officer of Microsoft.
“This year, Azure revenue surpassed $100 billion for the first time, and Microsoft 365 Copilot reached over 30 million paid seats, reflecting the confidence customers are placing in us to power their AI transformation.”
All units beat on revenues:
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Microsoft Cloud Q4 revenue $59.3 billion, estimate $58.71 billion, up 27% YoY
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Intelligent Cloud revenue $39.31 billion, estimate $38.17 billion
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Productivity and Business Processes revenue $37.85 billion, estimate $37.27 billion
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More Personal Computing revenue $12.85 billion, estimate $12.17 billion
Net income was $35.8 billion and increased 31% on a GAAP basis, and was $35.3 billion and increased 22% on a non-GAAP basis
Finally, and perhaps most crucially, Capital expenditures (including assets acquired under finance leases) increased 70% to $41 billion in the quarter, which is notably less than the $42.5 billion expected, on track to meet their roughly $190 billion annual guidance, but Capital-spending details on the conference call are more important, given the metric exceeds 50% of calendar 2026 sales.
Following an afternoon of pain (thanks to Warsh), MSFT shares are bouncing modestly after hours - up around 3%...
Tonight closes the books on a fiscal year in which Microsoft guided capital expenditures and finance leases to roughly $190 billion - up 61% from the prior year - including, per CFO Amy Hood's April guidance, a $25 billion hit from higher component prices as the global memory crunch feeds straight into the cost of building AI infrastructure.
The forward-looking problem is worse: BNP Paribas analysts are already penciling in $262 billion of capex for fiscal 2027. Cloud gross margin, guided to roughly 64% for the quarter, has been grinding lower as data-center depreciation piles up, meaning the spending is now visibly eating into the earnings it was supposed to eventually justify.
Along those lines, Bloomberg's Brody Ford reports that Microsoft added more than $130 billion in new data center leases in the past quarter, signaling an accelerating pace of spending on artificial intelligence infrastructure.
The company’s total commitments for leases that have not yet commenced were $329.1 billion as of the quarter ended June 30, Microsoft said Wednesday in a regulatory filing. That’s up from $196.6 billion in the prior period.
“That’s really a signal of the continued demand strength that we see,” Jonathan Neilson, Microsoft investor relations chief, said in an interview.
“These leases are going to be there to serve demand for many many years.”
The future costs, which come on top of active leases, won’t appear on Microsoft’s balance sheet until it begins making payments on them. The company said they are “primarily” for data centers and some are “subject to certain contractual conditions being met.”
This represents Microsoft’s largest quarterly jump in data center leasing by far.
The software giant continues to be held back by a lack of data center capacity after taking a pause on its leasing activity through much of 2025.
However, as we detailed earlier, simply put, until MSFT demonstrates some more tangible progress in AI (Copilot progress, proprietary LLM, proprietary chip, etc. as OpenAI potentially steals institutional share), it will likely remain on the battleground.
Microsoft will give its sales outlook for the current quarter, its fiscal Q1, as well as details on actual FY2026 CapEx on the conference call with analysts tonight.
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Guess Who's Funding Barricades And Porta-Potties At Madison's Marxist-Antifa Encampment
Far-left foot soldiers linked with Black Lives Matter and Antifa have established a two-block autonomous zone along Williamson Street in Madison, Wisconsin, following the death of 38-year-old Corey Durrell Ruiz.
Good morning from Madison, where an encampment at Willy and Baldwin Sts is in its 7th day. pic.twitter.com/iR4kVl1hCQ
— Laura Schulte (@SchulteLaura) July 29, 2026Ruiz, who had reportedly been released from prison (read report) shortly before the incident, was approached by police while riding a bicycle after allegedly attempting to enter several vehicles. Far-left activists have since designated the occupied area the Corey Ruiz Autonomous Zone, or CRAZ.
The encampment appears designed to demonstrate control over public space while creating conditions in which any police intervention could be framed as state repression. However, reporting from local media and anti-communist commentator Karlyn Borysenko suggests the local government is accommodating, and potentially enabling, the occupation rather than moving to dismantle it.
"So who's funding the barricades and the porta-potties in the BLM/Antifa autonomous zone (the CRAZ) in Madison, Wisconsin? You're not going to believe the answer. And I provide the receipts to prove it," Borysenko wrote on X.
Borysenko pointed to reporting from local outlet WMTV 15 News that says the municipal government is funding part of the CRAZ.
So who’s funding the barricades and the porta-potties in the BLM/Antifa autonomous zone (the CRAZ) in Madison Wisconsin?
You’re not going to believe the answer.
And I provide the receipts to prove it. https://t.co/LkGZRaz91S pic.twitter.com/UMz5dGD1vm
Here's more color :
District 6 Alder Davy Mayer said he has heard from more than 100 constituents in recent days. He said the city has been working on basic services, including a plan to use city salt trucks as street blockades in place of the seized trash cans. The city has also placed portable restrooms in the area.
Mayer said a homeless population has also moved into the zone, adding to disruptions.
"There certainly have been poor interactions like that," Mayer said. "There's also a large number of our homeless neighbors have come in and have been taking up living in this area too. That's something that causes disruption."
Mayer said the group has implemented some self-regulation, including a 10 p.m. curfew for children and overnight quiet hours. He said he could not offer a timeline for a resolution.
"I don't think the city wants to see a permanent takeover of this intersection," Mayer said. "But we also don't want to see a violent clearing of it either. So it's working with all these parties to find a resolution, which is difficult, which takes time."
Mayer said he hopes the city can begin pushing barricades back to reopen parts of the street, but said planning is being done hour by hour. He also said he went door to door to nearly all homes in the area on the first day of the closure and has posted updates to his blog. Some residents said they have not received communication.
New as of yesterday afternoon, the city has placed a few trucks to help shield the intersection. pic.twitter.com/VtYRgjhPKY
— Laura Schulte (@SchulteLaura) July 28, 2026Borysenko: "So who is funding CRAZ and the leftist takeover of several city blocks? The city, the taxpayers..."
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HHS Unveils Policy To End Funding For 'Dangerous Gain-Of-Function Research'
Authored by Aldgra Fredly via The Epoch Times,
The Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) on July 28 unveiled a new policy that would end federal support for "dangerous gain-of-function research," an experiment in which scientists genetically modify an organism to enhance its characteristics.
Workers next to a cage with mice inside the P4 laboratory in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China, on Feb. 23, 2017. Johannes Eisele/AFP via Getty ImagesIn a statement, HHS said the policy would prohibit federal funding for dangerous gain-of-function research conducted in the United States and abroad.
It would establish stricter oversight of certain life sciences research that the government deems could pose "significant risks" to public health, biosecurity, or national security. The policy would also restrict federal funding for research conducted in countries or institutions that lack sufficient biosafety and oversight standards, according to the department.
"The federal government has a duty to protect the American people - not fund research that could put them at risk," Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. said in the statement. "Today, we are ending federal support for dangerous gain-of-function research and replacing weak oversight with clear, enforceable safeguards."
The policy followed President Donald Trump's May 2025 executive order directing federal agencies to stop funding gain-of-function research in countries of concern, such as China and Iran, that lack research oversight.
According to a White House fact sheet, the order seeks to prevent federal funding from being used for foreign research that will likely cause another pandemic.
Trump's order will halt U.S. research involving infectious pathogens and toxins until a safer and more enforceable policy can be implemented, the White House stated.
"Dangerous gain-of-function research on biological agents and pathogens has the potential to significantly endanger the lives of American citizens," Trump said in his order. "If left unrestricted, its effects can include widespread mortality, an impaired public health system, disrupted American livelihoods, and diminished economic and national security."
In December 2024, the Republican-led House Oversight Select Subcommittee on the Coronavirus Pandemic released a 520-page report detailing findings from a two-year investigation indicating that the COVID-19 virus likely originated in a laboratory in Wuhan, China.
The report found that the U.S. National Institutes of Health funded gain-of-function research at the Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV), and that EcoHealth Alliance Inc. used U.S. taxpayer dollars to facilitate this research at the lab.
The committee said COVID-19 possesses biological characteristics not found in nature and that data indicates that all COVID-19 cases stemmed from a single introduction into humans. This differs from previous pandemics, where there were more spillover events.
The report said that in January 2021, the U.S. State Department published an unclassified fact sheet that says: "The U.S. government has reason to believe that several researchers inside the WIV became sick in autumn 2019, before the first identified case of the outbreak, with symptoms consistent with both COVID-19 and common seasonal illness."
An aerial view shows the P4 laboratory at the Wuhan Institute of Virology in Wuhan, China, on April 17, 2020. Hector Retamal/AFP via Getty Images Tyler Durden Wed, 07/29/2026 - 17:45