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"Good Manners" Have Never Been An Effective Strategy For Retaining Sovereignty

Zero Rss
2 weeks 6 days ago
"Good Manners" Have Never Been An Effective Strategy For Retaining Sovereignty

By Molly Schwartz, cross-asset macro strategist at Rabobank

10-year Treasury yields slid lower over yesterday’s session, retracing more than 9bps from Wednesday’s post-FOMC high of 5.02, with much of the move seemingly driven by falling oil prices, as Brent crude oil sank $3.5 to intraday lows below $102/bbl before retracing to $104/bbl. The UST yield curve has continued flattening, albeit in a bull-flattening fashion, as 2-year yields were dragged lower by almost 7bp. Given recent US economic data suggestive of a stronger-than-previously-thought labor market and hotter-than-preferred inflation, we maintain that the risk to our FOMC view of continued holds through year-end is skewed in favor of one hike this year, but believe that market-implied pricing of between one and two additional hikes in 2027 is unlikely (Read more about our FOMC view from Rabobank’s Fed whisperer, Philip Marey, here).

Politico reported yesterday that a trade deal is on the horizon between the US and Mexico, as some pointed to a recent call between Trump and Sheinbaum. An unnamed official said that “US-Mexico talks are active and continue to move in a positive direction…any notion that the call didn’t go well is wrong,” though “another person familiar with the call” referred to it as “so-so” and said that it “created a bit of noise.”

To those who have been following the trade negotiations between the US and Canada, this may feel uncomfortably similar to the days before the US-Canada trade relationship deteriorated completely in late August. However, Mexico already seems far better positioned to emerge with a favorable trade deal, simply by avoiding the headlines. While USD/MXN has recently been trading above the 17 level, we believe that trade progress remains constructive for the MXN and see continued resilience.

But the relationship between the US and Canada is only eroding further. Trump recently signed a Presidential Memorandum to “identify and take steps in response to Canada’s measures that have denied US firms access to Canada’s federal and provincial procurement markets.” This comes as Carney spoke to the EU Parliament in Strasbourg yesterday, further clarifying his position on where he sees middle powers fitting in an increasingly bifurcated world. He said that he is “not proposing a third bloc in order to become a great power rival, only with better manners…we are pursuing resilience so that no one, no one, can control our open markets, impair our sovereignty, threaten our territorial integrity, or undermine our freedoms.”

Canadian PM:

'I'm not proposing a third block in order to become a great power rival only with better manners...'

*Chuckles and applause*

'We do not seek power to dominate others... we are pursuing resilience so no one can control our open markets' https://t.co/nBXWnTCgF6 pic.twitter.com/T0KkDXRoqt

— RT (@RT_com) September 17, 2026

It should be noted that good manners have never been proven to be an effective strategy for retaining sovereignty. Carney also clarified that Canada is not seeking to become a “full member” of the European Union, while Canada’s EU ambassador-designate, Jonathan Wilkinson, asserted that Canada wants to “get as close as [it] possibly can to the EU without giving up significant chunks of sovereignty.”

Speaking of non-EU members, the Bank of England announced its decision to hold Bank Rate unchanged at 3.75% in a 6-3 vote. Rabobank’s BoE whisperer, Stefan Koopman, highlights in a Bank of England Comment that there is a case for the Bank to tighten borrowing conditions further, suggesting that November is a live meeting. Rabobank is forecasting a 25bp hike at the November meeting, assuming that the Autumn Budget is well absorbed. (Read more here).

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Tyler Durden Fri, 09/18/2026 - 12:20
Tyler Durden

Ukrainian Drone Hits Russian Nuclear Plant Days After Trump Energy Truce Plea

Zero Rss
2 weeks 6 days ago
Ukrainian Drone Hits Russian Nuclear Plant Days After Trump Energy Truce Plea

President Trump raised eyebrows when on Monday he declared that Russia and Ukraine had agreed to stop attacking each other's oil and energy infrastructure, amid global crude and diesel supply problems related mostly to the Hormuz Strait crisis.

But then within days later it became clear that the default reality on the ground has persisted, as energy sites continue to get pummeled. And it's not only refineries and ports which have continued getting hit, but as of Thursday morning a Russian nuclear plant was apparently targeted in a Ukrainian drone attack.

Kursk Nuclear Power Plant, file image

A drone hit the cooling tower of a reactor unit at Russia's Kursk Nuclear Power Plant, the International Atomic Energy Agency has announced Friday.

The unit was operating at the time, but its operating mode was unchanged and no fire broke out. 

The UN agency's director Rafael Grossi declared in a statement that "all attacks on nuclear facilities are unacceptable as they could endanger nuclear safety and security, irrespective of where they occur."

He urged "maximum military restraint to prevent the risk of a nuclear accident" - which remains a top dangerous reality of the battlefield in the context of the Ukraine war.

In early July the same site had suffered a prior drone attack from Ukraine. One industry source reviews:

The Kursk Nuclear Power Plant (Kursk NPP) has been the target of several military actions and drone strikes. The most notable incident occurred in August 2025 when a drone detonated and damaged an auxiliary transformer, sparking a structural fire that had to be contained by emergency teams. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) monitored the event and confirmed that radiation levels remained normal.

The Kremlin going back to 2024 has accused Ukrainian forces of seeking a 'provocation' at the Kursk nuclear plant.

The Kursk Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) lies about 25 miles west of the city of Kursk, which is the administrative center of the oblast by the same name.

The plant continues to be a major electricity producer for Russia. Kremlin officials have long voiced alarm that Ukraine may seek to use some major provocation to draw its backers in NATO deeper into the conflict.

Apparently on Ukraine's target bank going back years...

Russia's Kursk Nuclear Power Plant seen through the camera lens of a Ukrainian Shark reconnaissance UAV. pic.twitter.com/bbwN8YQq4s

— Status-6 (War & Military News) (@Archer83Able) September 15, 2024

As a reminder, Trump began the week by declaring on Truth Social, "Ukraine has agreed not to hit Russian Energy targets. Russia has agreed to do, likewise! The World’s Diesel price rise is mostly caused by the Russia/ Ukraine War, not Iran." ...So much for that.

Tyler Durden Fri, 09/18/2026 - 12:00
Tyler Durden

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