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Mapping SpaceX's Lockup Expirations: HSBC Calculates When The Shares Could Hit The Market
As of early Monday cash trading in New York, SpaceX shares were hovering near an all-time low of $110.21 after briefly dipping into the $108 handle. The rocket/AI company bonds have also come under pressure, leaving investors searching for signs of where the post-IPO selloff might finally find a proper floor.
SPCX LOD (and all time low) 110.21 https://t.co/RMbpm3ogyF
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) July 27, 2026Even a bullish note from Deutsche Bank analyst Edison Yu failed to correct increasing bearish sentiment. Yu's post-mortem concluded that Starship Flight 13 demonstrated "solid progress" toward full reusability, but the note was not enough to spark any meaningful wave of dip-buying.
One immediate overhang in the stock may be the quickly approaching lockup expirations. Traders appear reluctant to step in front of a potential tsunami of newly eligible shares that could dramatically expand the public float and put further pressure on the struggling stock.
HSBC analysts Nicolas Cote-Colisson and Charlie Rothbarth recently provided clients with a roadmap of SpaceX's lockup expirations. The first major release could make about 912 million shares eligible for public sale on Aug. 6, just two days after the company's first quarterly earnings report.
The unlock would expand SpaceX's free float to 11.8% from 4.9%, compared with roughly 639 million shares currently available for trading, creating a potentially significant supply overhang.
Here's more color from the analysts on the lockup schedule:
Investors should also consider potential share release post-lockup
SpaceX's IPO prospectus indicated that 555,555,555 shares would be issued to constitute the free float. We understand that the underwriters have exercised their option to purchase additional shares of Class A common stock in full, so the free float would have extended to 638,888,888 shares.
We identify 4,678m locked up shares and another 8,160m shares subject to an extended lockup. Based on the information provided by the SpaceX prospectus dated 12 June 2026, we calculate that 912m shares could be available for sale in the public market from 6 August 2026, compared with 640m shares constituting the free float at present. The free float would increase from 4.9% at present to 11.8%.
Another release event could occur on the same day depending on SpaceX shares trading above USD175.5 for at least five of 10 consecutive trading days ending on 4 August 2026 (i.e. between 22 July and 4 August 2026). The table below provides further event/date triggers for subsequent share releases.
Those restricted shares are currently owned by funds and individuals that have participated in the private rounds of financing and may be inclined to keep their shares. But we think investors should be aware of this.
via HSBCOne institutional trading desk we spoke with said it plans to wait for the lockup expirations before starting a position in the stock.
Professional subscribers can find more color on SPCX here at our new Marketdesk.ai portal.
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Gold Isn't Returning... Confidence Is Leaving
Authored by Mark St.Cyr via AmericanThinker.com,
Most people are framing the conversation regarding gold wrong.
They talk about gold making a comeback -- as though the metal changed. As though something happened to gold.
Nothing happened to gold. Gold is exactly what it has always been.
What's changed is the environment around it. And that distinction matters enormously, because it tells you where to look for better insights.
For decades, people treated fiat currency as the unquestioned foundation of global finance. Gold became an afterthought -- an inflation hedge, a crisis trade, insurance against events sophisticated investors assumed would never arrive. The system ran on confidence, and confidence was abundant. When confidence is abundant, nobody examines the collateral.
However: when confidence erodes, collateral suddenly matters again.
That is what is happening now. Not suddenly. Not dramatically. Systemically.
Central banks have been quietly adding gold reserves for years. Governments have grown uncomfortable with the political risk embedded in foreign currency holdings. Institutional investors are revisiting strategic allocations they long considered settled. Discussions have surfaced around gold-backed sovereign debt. Tokenization is making physical ownership practical inside a digital financial system.
Taken individually, none of this looks like a revolution. Taken together, it looks like a system beginning to search for a more trusted foundation.
The conventional gold debate obsesses over inflation forecasts, Federal Reserve policy, and price targets. That framing misses the structural issue entirely. Gold is not becoming more valuable because its characteristics changed. Its characteristics have been constant for centuries. What changed is how much those characteristics matter in the environment we now occupy.
Every period of monetary history forces the same question eventually: what asset sits outside the promises of everyone else? That question grows more urgent as sovereign debt expands, fiscal flexibility narrows, and geopolitical relationships become less predictable. In that environment, neutrality acquires real value. Gold carries no national allegiance, no corporate balance sheet, no counterparty obligation. Those qualities have always existed. Markets are simply beginning to price them again.
Although gold-backed money deserves serious consideration -- not as nostalgia, but as a return to the classical gold standard -- it remains highly improbable. Modern governments have little incentive to surrender the flexibility fiat systems afford them. The realistic scenario is quieter than that. Gold gradually resumes its role as a reference asset. Not circulating currency. Not legal tender. But foundational collateral, increasingly preferred when confidence elsewhere continues to weaken. This is what appears to be happening far away from all the sell-side headlines.
What makes this moment worth watching is the self-reinforcing nature of the process. Higher demand supports higher prices. Higher prices strengthen balance sheets. Stronger balance sheets make additional gold ownership easier to justify. Broader institutional acceptance encourages wider adoption. Wider adoption generates further demand. These are not isolated developments. They are feedback loops.
Today, whether this ever produces a formal gold-backed currency is secondary. The primary insight is: people and governments are actively adjusting the value of confidence. Quietly. Through behavior, not announcement. History repeatedly shows that monetary transitions rarely begin with a declaration. They begin when participants start acting differently -- and by the time the new consensus becomes obvious, most of the adjustment has already occurred.
So the right question is not whether gold deserves renewed attention. The right question is why increasingly sophisticated institutions believe it does -- and what that tells us about the system they are quietly hedging against.
That answer has nothing to do with nostalgia.
It has everything to do with architecture.
Financial systems are based on confidence.
When confidence begins to fragment, participants seek assets that require the fewest assumptions.
Gold has occupied that position before -- not because governments demanded it, but because markets eventually preferred it.
And while goldbugs wait, there is now an option to collect as much as 4% yield on physical, paid out as additional ounces of physical gold, something our friends at Monetary Metals have been perfecting for years.
Gold is not asking for a larger role in the current system.
The current system may be assigning it one.
Tyler Durden Mon, 07/27/2026 - 13:45