The circumstances of US/Canadian trade should be common knowledge by now, but the details often get mired in the swamp of political rhetoric. When Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney describes the tariff issue as the US "waging war" on Canada, he knows exactly what he's doing. Carney has turned a simple trade issue over reasonable 10% tariffs into an existential crisis, an invasion, an ethnic cleansing, a last stand against "evil" imperialists.
But getting the Canadian public riled up with delusions that they are underdog insurgents will not help them keep manufacturing companies or domestic jobs. There is no reason to "endure" a trade war involving 50% tariffs that can be easily solved by simply taking the sweetheart deal that was offered to them. Carney could easily wait Trump out and try to renegotiate once a new president is elected. Unless, there's an alternative agenda at play for Carney.
Estimates in July on manufacturing losses indicated that 42% of Canadian companies (and some US companies) would be moving at least a portion of their operations to the US to avoid the debilitating tariffs. Some will be shutting down entirely. With Carney asserting that negotiations are off the table, this leaves no room for speculation. Businesses are adjusting operations for the long haul which means skyrocketing job losses for Canada.
The latest manufacturers to make announcements are:
Aeris Protective Packaging in Montreal: The company says it is opening a U.S. plant after 50% U.S. tariffs on paper and packing containers. About 70% of its customers are in the U.S. It plans to keep some manufacturing in Quebec and Ontario for Canadian, European, and Mexican customers.
Sapporo/Sleeman Breweries: Sapporo says it will move production of beer made in Canada for the U.S. market to the United States by the first half of 2027, citing 50% tariffs on Canadian beer. Sleeman later said the move is “not finalized”. Most beer sold in Canada would still be brewed in Canada.
RYAM (Rayonier Advanced Materials) in Témiscaming, Quebec: The US-owned paperboard mill announced an indefinite temporary shutdown, blaming 50% U.S. tariffs. About 400–425 workers were affected. The stop was first set for mid-September, then postponed to October 3rd after new Canadian orders. The company has not given a restart date.
Stellantis - Brampton Assembly (Ontario): In mid-August 2026 the company told Unifor it was opening talks on a possible sale of the idle Brampton plant (idled since late 2023 after Jeep Compass production was moved to the U.S.). Stellantis had plans to reopen the mothballed site, but they backed out after the trade war with the US went parabolic.
Northern Cable (Brockville, Ontario): An August 2026 report says the firm is considering a U.S. factory if 50% tariffs on electric cable take effect, because half of the company's business is in the United States.
Some companies have already move production to the US, including Crown Royale which moved its bottling plant to Alabama in April.
A Reuters/LSEG poll of economists originally predicted Canada would add 15,000 jobs in August 2026. Instead, the country lost 42,000 jobs; that's a 57,000 job disparity. Canadian economists are treating the forecast miss as an anomaly, however, it is likely that the decline in jobs will escalate through the end of the year unless a deal between the US and Canada is struck.
If Carney's intention is to use economic hysteria as a tool to help Democrats win during the US midterm elections, then there's no chance of a deal before the end of the year. Canadians will continue into winter with the threat of rising unemployment and much higher prices.
Canada relies on the US for 78% of all export sales and there are no practical trade alternatives. A similar but smarter base case is Mexico, which sells around 84% of all their exports to American markets. The difference? The Mexican government has avoided arrogant jousting with the US and is engaging in fair negotiations (so far). They are also showing more cooperation to meet the Trump Administration's demands on securing the southern border.
In other words, they didn't abandon negotiations at the last minute like Carney, and this has helped Mexico to avoid punishing tariffs and job losses. Whatever Carney's intentions, it's clear that average Canadians will be paying the price for the Prime Minister's lack of diplomacy.
Tyler Durden Tue, 09/15/2026 - 15:40