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Oil Eases by Week's End on Signs of 'Diplomacy Lite'Somewhat surprisingly, oil prices are pushing lower by week's close, especially after a succession of perhaps 'diplomacy-lite' headlines; however, the reality still remains is that the bombing campaign is escalating... and typically the region witnesses the biggest bombs away on a weekend, with markets closed:
Trump on China, Russia Assistance to Iran
President Trump took to Truth Social to warn China and Russia against giving or selling arms to Iran, saying: "If they did, it would be very bad for them". However he also sought to clarify: "In my opinion, (they are) not participating."
Doing so was "certainly not in their best interests" - the president added. The president addressed a Reuters report that alleged Iranian strikes on CIA targets in the Gulf earlier in the war is being investigated, on concerns that Russia or China may have helped with such targeting.
Xi "told me he would not," Trump wrote. Was there a pinky promise?...
Iraqi Prime Minister Denies NYT Report on Ceasefire OfferThe latest little peace overture by Washington widely reported Thursday night was apparently a big nothingburger, as on Friday the Iraqi prime minister’s office has denied a New York Times report claiming that Iran rejected a US ceasefire proposal delivered to Tehran by Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi.
The fresh statement from the prime minister's office said what was published in the Times was "entirely unfounded" and had "no relation to reality." The statement underscored the temporary nature of the proposal and that it was the "only offer on the table" and still left the question of control over the Strait of Hormuz unresolved - and so Tehran was uninterested.
It's also the reality that Tehran wants to see Trump sweat and impose economic and political costs particularly ahead of the midterms in November, where Congressional Republicans must face voters over failing to rein in Trump's Iran war. The Iranians continue to openly voice this, for example in the following from the parliament speaker:
They wanted to punish Iran.
Punished themselves with triple-digit oil instead.
10/10 strategy👏👏👏 pic.twitter.com/w80f1Xzuvk
Meanwhile, in what is becoming a brutal, nightly routine, US Central Command (CENTCOM) has wrapped up its 13th consecutive wave of airstrikes against Iran. The Pentagon said it targeted military command centers, drone storage facilities, communication networks, and coastal surveillance sites.
Iranian state media reported overnight into Friday heavy explosions rocking major hubs across the country, including Khorramabad, Jask, Ahvaz, Bandar Abbas, and the strategic outpost of Qeshm Island. Iranian media further said a US missile strike left four dead and five injured in the key industrial and transportation hub of Ahvaz.
As the bombs fall, Tehran is still signaling that military pressure won't force a cheap surrender - with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi lashing out at the US escalation, warning that "mindless aggression" will only see Trump pay a "heavier price" for a deal to end the war.
More Iran Retaliation on GulfIranian retaliation on US-linked sites in the Gulf have continued at the same steady pace, with on Friday Bahrain's military having intercepted "several treacherous Iranian air attacks" - according to the general command of the Bahrain Defense Force.
The Bahraini military further denounced Iran's "systematic hostile approach" and "criminal attacks targeting civilians". The statement emphasized, "The general command emphasises that the deliberate use of missiles and drones to target civilians and private property constitutes a flagrant violation of international humanitarian law."
Throughout the morning the Iranian military's targets also included locations in Jordan, Kuwait, and northern Iraq. Sky News is reporting that "Explosions were also heard near a base hosting the US in Iraq, near the Erbil International Airport."
Fox Poll says Iran War More Unpopular Then EverFox feeding its Boomer audience some Freedom Viagra with a helping of war crimes on the side:
Fox News discussion about Iran's infrastructure:
"What do you think we might hit first?"
"I don't know if we'll hit it first, but the Damavand plant supplies 40% of Tehran's electricity." pic.twitter.com/VpYVT2X4lI
But Fox News also reports the results of its latest poll which finds 56% oppose the ongoing American military action against Iran, including 40% who "strongly" oppose. "Disapproval of President Donald Trump’s handling of Iran hit a record high in July," Fox writes.
"A majority of voters oppose U.S. military action, and nearly two thirds think the conflict will last at least a year," the report says.
A Frustrated Trump is in 'Revenge Mode'This as The Wall Street Journal does an entire investigative report which should be laughably obvious to any careful observer to what's been going on and the deepening quagmire the US is getting itself into:
As the war in Iran enters its fifth month, Trump is increasingly frustrated that a conflict he once thought would be over in a matter of weeks has dragged on with no end in sight, administration officials and others close to the president said.
Some of Trump’s advisers now worry that the war—which has resulted in higher prices, falling approval ratings and the deaths of more than a dozen U.S. servicemembers—is consuming his presidency and damaging Republicans’ already dim prospects in the coming midterm elections.
Alarmingly, the WSJ noted that Trump seems in "revenge mode" against Tehran, and apparently sees no other options than to try and keep bombing his way out of it. Of course, this script has been written many times - not only during the "Global War on Terror" and this millennium's "forever wars" - but going all the way back to the Vietnam war.
NBC: The four service members being flown from the Middle East to Dover Air Force Base were 28-year-old Angel S. Rampersad of New York, 30-year-old Michael Emmanuel Swinton of North Carolina, 25-year-old Tyler James Feehan of Hawaii and 19-year-old Isabella Gonzales of Texas.
President Trump attends a dignified transfer on Wednesday. War Takes "Toll" on White House: WSJThe war is said to be taking a heavy "toll" on Trump and his top officials. According to more of what's also been glaringly obvious for anyone who has had a shred of independent thought:
The war is splitting the conservative coalition over which Trump once had an iron grip, worrying some Republicans close to the White House. Longtime Trump allies such as Fox News host Laura Ingraham have used their platforms to express concerns about how the war might affect Republicans in November’s midterm elections. On Monday, she said the “clock is ticking” to the midterms.
“Netanyahu has led us into a horrible conflict filled with lies,” Steve Bannon, a longtime Trump adviser, said. “People can see with their own eyes what’s going on.”
While this part about Netanyahu is true, it is ultimately President Trump who made the decision, after for years prior - and especially on the campaign trail - articulately spelling out that attacking Iran and starting new Mideast wars would be one of most idiotic foreign policy moves a president could make.
Trump on Thursday said he would take funds from Iran to pay for damage inflicted on US bases and assets throughout the war. Iran responded in the following...
Seizing another nation's assets to pay for unrelated future claims is an incendiary precedent.
Those who celebrate or profit from such funds should remember: once governments normalize confiscation, no one's assets are safe. Ensuing chaos will not be pretty or peaceful.
Perhaps the utter folly of Operation Epic Fury has finally begun to dawn on the president. WSJ also observed that "Last month, the president was so excited at the prospect of signing the memorandum of understanding with Tehran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz that he was dismissive of Republican allies who said the Iranians would never stick to the agreement, according to a senior administration official. He wanted it to be over, Trump told them."
Tyler Durden Fri, 07/24/2026 - 12:45A growing number of institutional desks sounded alarms over physical commodity markets this week as maritime chokepoint disruptions intensified across the Gulf.
Goldman Sachs, RBC Capital Markets, JPMorgan, and others warned that a tightening physical market could keep Brent firmly in triple-digit territory and drive prices sharply higher if the disruptions persist.
Joining the conversation was Citigroup Senior Commodities Strategist Eric Lee, who warned Thursday that commodity markets have entered an era of near-constant disruption, with geopolitical, climate, and technological shocks increasingly overwhelming traditional supply-and-demand analysis.
Lee warned:
Commodities markets are in an era where geopolitical, climate and technological shocks routinely overwhelm traditional supply-demand analysis. Rather than only what is most likely, investors need to consider what is plausible, and what markets are least prepared for.
The frequency of major commodities market disruptions appears to be rising. Events once considered "once -a-decade" now seem to emerge every year, or even every six months.
Since the early 2000s, markets have navigated the Global Financial Crisis, the Arab Spring, the US shale revolution, OPEC's strategic policy shifts; since 2020, wildcards include COVID-19, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, trade wars, gold-positive macro concerns, weather-driven agricultural disruptions, and repeated Middle East conflicts.
Timeline showing notable wildcards and shocks impacting commodities, 2000-2026
List of notable wildcards and shocks impacting commodities:
Lee outlined nine high-impact commodity-market wildcards for the second half of 2026 and beyond, warning that the scenarios are not base-case forecasts but risks with consequences too large for investors to ignore:
US-Iran conflict goes from temporary shock to multi-year disruption of Gulf oil production capacity, driving crude oil to $150+, wholesale refined products to $200+, US retail gasoline to $6/gal sustained.
Russia-Ukraine escalation drives renewed oil and gas export restrictions: this could be even more bullish for global gas than for oil.
Critical minerals hoarding goes into overdrive: drives copper to $20k/t and more.
Gold falls another 15–20% near-term before doubling.
Hyper El Niño and other extreme weather: drives ag price spikes, e.g. cocoa back to >$10k/t.
AI boom and bust: buffet electricity, natural gas, uranium, and power-infrastructure metals like copper and aluminium one way, and gold the other way.
Trade war hits US farmers again: US-China trade war resumes, hitting US ag exports, which could push corn below $4.2/bu and soybeans below $10/bu.
2030 LNG glut worsens on Russian Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline to China: driving global LNG prices like JKM down to $5–6/MMBtu.
Monroe Doctrine extreme: US blockades all Americas oil exports, driving global oil prices to well above $100/bbl, while US benchmarks might be discounted by over $30/bbl.
A look at the Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM), a widely tracked commodity-futures benchmark, shows the broader complex, spanning energy, agriculture, metals, and livestock, continuing to climb from its Covid-era lows.
Professional subscribers can access deeper commodity analysis at our new Marketdesk.ai portal.
Tyler Durden Fri, 07/24/2026 - 12:40